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Waste Generation Analysis of

United States
- Ramya Smita Kavi
Why Waste Generation?
• US is the most waste generating nation in the world with
approximately 4.40 pounds per person per day!

• Data Collection from United Nations Human Development program,


The Earth Policy Institute (EPI), US census for the years 1990-2015.
Global oil
GNI per Paper Waste
Population production
Years HDI capitaPPP($ production Generated
(millions) (million
10,000) (million tons) (million tons)
barrels)
1990 0.86 249.623 3.74 65.4 86.796 208.27
1991 0.861 252.981 3.68 65.2 85.071 207.73
1992 0.866 256.514 3.76 65.7 88.273 214.94
1993 0.871 259.919 3.81 66.0 91.538 217.98
1994 0.874 263.126 3.91 67.1 95.718 221.32
1995 0.877 266.278 3.97 68.0 95.971 217.28
1996 0.878 269.394 4.08 69.8 94.529 215.99
1997 0.881 272.647 4.20 72.1 99.557 223.1
1998 0.884 275.854 4.34 73.5 101.183 227.12
1999 0.885 279.04 4.49 72.3 105.316 234.88
2000 0.884 282.192 4.63 75.0 102.81 243.45
2001 0.887 285.102 4.63 75.2 97.395 240.8
2002 0.889 287.941 4.67 75.0 98.949 245.33
2003 0.892 290.789 4.77 77.6 98.018 246.42
2004 0.895 293.655 4.91 81.1 101.884 254.12
2005 0.898 296.41 5.02 82.1 99.613 253.73
2006 0.901 298.996 5.10 82.6 100.665 257.1
2007 0.905 302.004 5.16 82.4 97.007 256.5
2008 0.907 304.798 5.11 83.0 89.838 252.51
2009 0.907 307.439 4.92 81.3 78.711 244.27
2010 0.91 309.9 5.02 83.3 81.784 250.5
2011 0.913 312.4 5.07 84.0 78.959 250.42
2012 0.915 314.8 5.14 86.3 78.619 250.89
Analyzing possible parameters influencing the
waste generation
• Response: Municipal waste generated (million tonnes)
• Independent Variables:
HDI (Human Development Index):
GNI pre capita($):
Population of US (millions)
Production of oil (million barrels)
Production of paper(million tonnes)
Hypothesis Test
H0 : The effect of the independent variables on the response variable,
i.e, the total waste generated is 0. (βj = coefficients of the independent
variables)
β1 = β2 = β3 = ... = βk = 0

H1 : At least one of the independent variables has a significant effect on


the response.
βj ≠ β ≠ 0 for at least one j
Regression Analysis: Waste Generation Million tons versus HDI, Population
of US(millions),GNI per capita International (per $10000), Global Oil
Production, Paper production (million tons)

Analysis of Variance

Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value


Regression 5 6145.23 1229.05 126.42 0.000
HDI 1 13.54 13.54 1.39 0.254
Population (millions) 1 6.40 6.40 0.66 0.429
GNI per capitaPPP($ 1 72.16 72.16 7.42 0.014
Global Oil pdn 1 2.61 2.61 0.27 0.611
Paper production 1 9.45 9.45 0.97 0.338
Error 17 165.28 9.72
Total 22 6310.51
Model Summary

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)


3.11806 97.38% 96.61% 95.39%

Regression Equation

W-G MT = 424 - 512 HDI + 0.407 Population (millions)


+ 37.2 GNI per capita - 0.406 Global Oil prodn
+ 0.152 Paper production (million tons)
Analysis of Residuals

Normal Probability Plot: All observations are close to the line, hence the normality
assumption is not violated.

Constant Variance: Residuals vs Fitted Plot, do not show any increasing or decreasing
pattern. Hence, the constant variance assumption is not violated.

Independence: Residuals vs Order plot, all the observations are almost randomly
distributed. Hence, the independence assumption is not violated.
R-Sq R-Sq Mallows HD P G l s
Vars R-Sq (adj) (pred) Cp S I o N s )
1 95.8 95.6 95.0 8.1 3.5437 X
1 89.0 88.5 86.9 52.1 5.7376 X
2 97.0 96.7 96.0 2.3 3.0662 X X
2 96.9 96.6 96.1 2.9 3.1064 X X
3 97.2 96.8 95.9 3.1 3.0391 X X X
3 97.2 96.8 95.8 3.2 3.0490 X X X
4 97.3 96.7 95.8 4.3 3.0541 X X X X
4 97.3 96.7 95.5 4.7 3.0883 X X X X
5 97.4 96.6 95.4 6.0 3.1181 X X X X X

According to the least variable subset model, significant


variables are HDI and GNI per capita.
Stepwise Regression:
Forward Selection-
Stepwise Selection of Terms (α to enter = 0.25, α to remove = 0.25)
Forward Selection of Terms
α to enter = 0.25 Analysis of Variance

Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value P-Value


Regression 2 6122.48 3061.24 325.61 0.000
HDI 1 75.68 75.68 8.05 0.010
GNI per capitaPPP($10,000) 1 976.62 976.62 103.88 0.000
Error 20 188.03 9.40
Total 22 6310.51

Model Summary

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)


3.06619 97.02% 96.72% 96.01%
Model Summary

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)


3.06619 97.02% 96.72% 96.01%

Coefficients

Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF


Constant 381 102 3.75 0.001
HDI -382 135 -2.84 0.010 11.49
GNI per capita 42.94 4.21 10.19 0.000 11.49

Regression Equation

W-G MT = 381 - 382 HDI + 42.94 GNI per capitaPPP


Backward Elimination:
Backward Elimination of Terms

α to remove = 0.25

Analysis of Variance

Source DF Adj SS Adj MS F-Value


P-Value
Regression 2 6122.48 3061.24 325.61
0.000
HDI 1 75.68 75.68 8.05
0.010
GNI per capitaPPP 1 976.62 976.62 103.88
0.000
Error 20 188.03 9.40
Total 22 6310.51
Model Summary

S R-sq R-sq(adj) R-sq(pred)


3.06619 97.02% 96.72% 96.01%

Coefficients

Term Coef SE Coef T-Value P-Value VIF


Constant 381 102 3.75 0.001
HDI -382 135 -2.84 0.010 11.49
GNI per capitaPPP 42.94 4.21 10.19 0.000 11.49

Regression Equation

W-G MT = 381 - 382 HDI + 42.94 GNI per capitaPPP($10,000)


Prediction for W-G MT
Regression Equation

W-G MT = 381 - 382 HDI + 42.94 GNI per capita

Variable Setting
HDI 0.916
GNI per capitaPPP($10,000) 5.18

Fit SE Fit 95% CI 95% PI


253.922 1.46892 (250.858, 256.986) (246.830, 261.014)
Conclusion:

The primary variables affecting the total waste generation in US are


-The Human Development Index- that accounts for the well being of the
citizens of US (life expectancy, education, and per capita etc)

- The Gross National Income per capita International $ of US.


References:

1. http://hdr.undp.org/en/data
2. https://data.oecd.org/pop/population.htm
3. http://www.earth-policy.org/?/data_center/C25/
4. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/