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Forest stands of Pinus occidentalis Sw. occupy an area of approximately 302,500 hectares in the Dominican Republic. In 1992, within La Sierra, there were 34,937 hectares containing P. occidentalis, with pure stands occupying 42% of this area (Swedforest Consulting AB, 1992). An average of 10,000 m3 of wood from the species is harvested annually in the study area. Due to the absence of reliable volume and yield models needed to estimate the volume of standing timber and products, this quantity is difficult to corroborate.
P. occidentalis timber harvests contributes to the Dominican trade balance by generating millions of dollars (US) through sales, creating thousands of job opportunities and causing a decrease in the amount of wood imports. Despite its economic importance, the species has never been the subject of serious growth studies, making it difficult to account for current inventory levels and the amount of volume harvested.
This dissertation describes the development of three quantitative tools used to improve yield estimates of P. occidentalis: 1) individual tree volume estimates based on taper models and product-ratio equations; 2) diameter distribution models; and 3) individual tree diameter growth equations. These tools will be used for estimating the current and future volume of standing trees, as well as the volume of products derived from the trees. This will potentially allow for the more efficient use of this renewable resource, thereby maximizing profits from timber sales.

Forest stands of Pinus occidentalis Sw. occupy an area of approximately 302,500 hectares in the Dominican Republic. In 1992, within La Sierra, there were 34,937 hectares containing P. occidentalis, with pure stands occupying 42% of this area (Swedforest Consulting AB, 1992). An average of 10,000 m3 of wood from the species is harvested annually in the study area. Due to the absence of reliable volume and yield models needed to estimate the volume of standing timber and products, this quantity is difficult to corroborate.
P. occidentalis timber harvests contributes to the Dominican trade balance by generating millions of dollars (US) through sales, creating thousands of job opportunities and causing a decrease in the amount of wood imports. Despite its economic importance, the species has never been the subject of serious growth studies, making it difficult to account for current inventory levels and the amount of volume harvested.
This dissertation describes the development of three quantitative tools used to improve yield estimates of P. occidentalis: 1) individual tree volume estimates based on taper models and product-ratio equations; 2) diameter distribution models; and 3) individual tree diameter growth equations. These tools will be used for estimating the current and future volume of standing trees, as well as the volume of products derived from the trees. This will potentially allow for the more efficient use of this renewable resource, thereby maximizing profits from timber sales.

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La Sierra, Dominican Republic

Introduction

•Pinus occidentalis

•Importance

•Ecological

•Economical

•Social

•Current management:

what we know

Current needs

– One-time forest inventory

– No provisions to quantify /estimate growth and yield

– Subjective (unfounded) determination of harvest

Role of growth/yield models

• Needs: project changes to obtain information

about future conditions based on current

conditions

• Using: growth/yield models which, by exploring

different silvicultural alternatives, allow the

development of

– Annual allowable cuts estimates

– Plans for sustained yield

– Evaluation of economic outputs

– Quantification of ecological services (carbon

sequestration)

Developing plans for sustained yield

It is required to know

• Timing of treatments

• Amount of timber available in future times

• Tree and volume distribution by DBH classes

• Thinning opportunities

• Differences in stand structures

• Influence of different management strategies

• Current/future assortment of timber products

Goals and Objectives

Goal: Gain an understanding on how P. occidentalis grow

in three ecological zones within the study area,

determine which zone is best in terms of forest

production, and find by appropriate selection and

testing, the needed tools to assist in planning for

sustain yield.

content of individual trees.

• Objective 2: Characterize the diameter

distribution within plots.

• Objective 3: Estimate the diameter growth of

individual trees.

Geographic location of the

Dominican Republic

Range of Pinus occidentalis

(Critchfield and Little 1966)

Current land cover and soil use

La Sierra

General climatic conditions

Ecological Zone

Stands in the different zones

Objective 1: Estimation of merchantable bole

volume

• Sub-objectives

– Compare four total bole volume equations.

– Estimate volume proportion for predefined upper

stem diameters.

– Estimate merchantable volume with the best TVPR

system.

– Compare two taper models in terms for merchantable

volume estimation.

– Compare volume estimation with the best taper and

TVPR models.

– Life zone comparisons.

Objective 1: Data collection methods

TVPR

system Number of trees

Calibration 55 77 59

Validation 75 90 85

Taper

models Upper stem diameters

Calibration 1775 812 1102

Validation 444 228 275

Objective 1: Total bole volume and volume

proportion models

Vol ib = b 0D 2

H + ε

Vol ib = b 0 + b 1D 2

+ b 2H + b 3D 2

H + ε

Vol ib = b 0 + b 1D 2

H + ε

Vol ib = e b1

D b 2

H b 3

ε

R = 1 − b 0 (d b

i

1

D b 2

)

Objective 1: Taper models

d = a 0D a X a1 D

2

where :

X = f(Z, p)

d i = up stem diameter

D = diameter at breast height

Z = relative height

p = location of inflection point

Objective 1: Data analyses

Objective 1: Fit statistics of TVPR and Taper

models for volume content in the

Dry Zone

B%

B ias

14 cm

RMSE

MSE

Upper Stem Diameters

-0.02 -0.01 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10

B%

B ias

8 cm

RMSE

MSE

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10

B%

B ias

4 cm

RMSE

MSE

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10

cm T aper

TVPR

Objective 1: Fit statistics of TVPR and Taper

models for volume content in the

Intermediate Zone

B%

B ia s

14 cm

RMSE

Upper Stem Diameters

MSE

B%

B ia s

8 cm

RMSE

MSE

B%

B ia s

4 cm

RMSE

MSE

Taper

cm TVPR

Objective 1: Fit statistics of TVPR and Taper

models for volume content in the

Humid Zone

B%

Bias

14 cm

RMSE

MSE

Upper Stem Diameters

B%

Bias

8 cm

RMSE

MSE

B%

Bias

4 cm

RMSE

MSE

cm Taper

TVPR

Objective 1: Summary

– Β0 coefficient on combined variables model

• Volume estimation to upper stem diameters

– TVPR system better for estimating volume up to 8 and

4 cm.

– Taper models better for estimating volume up to 14

cm.

– Being logs with an upper diameter of 14 cm the most

valuable product, taper models should be applied to

estimate bole volume content on individual P.

occidentalis trees.

Objective 2: Characterizing diameter

distributions

Sub-objectives:

• Estimate three-parameter Weibull equations using:

– Parameter prediction method (PPM)

• Maximum Likelihood (ML)

• Modified Moment Estimators (MME)

– Parameter recovery method (PRM)

• Percentiles (PCT )

• Cumulative Density Function (CDF)

• Compare each of the four methods above in terms of:

– Estimated volume in each plot and overall

– Estimated amount of trees by diameter class in each plot

and overall

Objective 2: Data collection methods

• 25 permanent plots

– established at random in 1984 or 1988

• 1544 trees

– remeasured periodically through 1995

• Variables

– DBH

– Height of 15% dominant trees

– quadratic mean diameter

– basal area per hectare

– trees per hectare

– stand density index (Reineke, 1933)

– site index

– age

Objective 2: PPM-(ML & MME)

Objective 2: PRM-PCT

Objective 2: PRM-CDF

Objective 2: Stem frequencies by DBH class

Weibull

Parameters Stem

estimated by Frequencies

by DBH Class

PPM and PRM

Objective 2: Estimating volume of plot

Objective 2: Ranking of methods according to

yield predictions and number of trees

per hectare in each diameter class

Parameter Prediction Parameter Recovery

Modified

Maximum Method of CDF

Statistic Likelihood Moments Percentiles Regression

RMSE 81.61 111.49 121.35 93.14

BIAS 53.44 94.63 101.64 64.45

BIAS (%) 23.84 34.23 53.07 33.66

SSRR 10.63 5.63 31.03 17.86

Error Index* 346 397 333 295

RankGFS 1 3 4 2

RankEI 3 4 2 1

*Reynolds et al. 1988.

Objective 2: Coefficients and fit statistics for the

independent variables of the

PRM_CDF method

Standard

AIC BIC

Parameter Effect Estimate Error P Value Variance Structure

Age 0.186 0.063 0.0042

Dm Autoregressive 473.8 481.1

TPH -0.012 0.002 <.0001

SI 0.285 0.093 0.005

Intercept 19.081 0.993 <.0001

Age 0.033 0.017 0.049

Dq HT 0.115 0.036 0.002 Autoregressive 57.4 66.0

TPH -0.018 0.0009 <.0001

SDI 0.055 0.003 <.0001

Objective 2: Predicted and observed tree

frequencies on plot 116

P P M -M L

65

P R M -C D F

60

P R M -P C T

55 P P M -M M E

50 O BSERVED

45

Tree Frequency

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

20 25 30 35

D B H C lass (cm )

Objective 2: Summary on diameter distributions

• Yield predictions

– Limitations

• Flexibility of the Weibull

• Suitable stand characteristics to predict the

Weibull parameters

– AGE, TPH, SI, SDI, HT

Objective 3: Predicting individual diameter

growth for P. occidentalis, Sw.

Sub-objectives

• Predict future diameter (FDM) using OLS and

mixed models,

– choose the best model approach to predict FD

• Predict periodic annual diameter increment

(PADIM) using OLS and mixed models,

– choose the best model approach to model PADI

• Estimate both FD and PADI with the best FDM

• Estimate both FD and PADI with the best PADIM

– Choose the best model (FDM or PADIM) to predict

growth of individual P. occidentalis trees

Objective 3: Data collection methods

• Calibration set: 1047 trees,

• Validation set: 204 trees

• Age range: 21 - 46 years

• Density: 192 - 950 stems per ha

• Basal area: 9.26 - 33.39 m2

• Site density index (Reineke): 91.18 - 273.22

• Site index (40 year index age): 13 - 30.

Objective 3: Year of measurement in each of

the plots

Plot # 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

Humid

8 X X X X X

9 X X X X X

10 X X X X

13 X X X X X

14 X X X X X

15 X X X X X

16 X X X X X

17 X X X

18 X X X X

Intermediate

1 X X X X X

3 X X X X X

5 X X X X X

6 X X X X

11 X X X

12 X X X

17 X X X

Dry

101 X X X X X X X

102 X X X X X X X X

103 X X X X

108 X X X X

109 X X X X

110 X X X X

111 X X X X

112 X X X X

115 X X

116 X X

Objective 3: Explanatory variables for

individual diameter growth

prediction

• Predictor variables used for model building were related to

time, individual tree size, stand competition and site

productivity.

• Stand competition was measured by density related

variables,

– TPH,

– BAPH (m2 ha−1),

– SDI (Reineke’s)

– CCI (tree status )

– BAL (competition index)

• Measure of site productivity, (site index, base age 40)

• Individual tree size (DBH)

• Time (linear, quadratic)

Objective 3: Selection of best model to predict

diameter growth

Objective 3: Goodness-of-fit statistics to estimate

periodic annual diameter increment

CALIBRATION VALIDATION

MIXED MIXED

STATISTIC OLS MODEL OLS MODEL

MODEL MODEL

MSE 0.0690 0.0552 0.0679 0.0550

RMSE 0.2620 0.2349 0.2605 0.2340

BIAS 0.0910 -0.0003 0.0958 0.0140

RELATIVE

29.5100 0.0980 30.1937 4.6500

BIAS

MAD 0.1940 0.1793 0.2000 0.1850

R2 N/A 0.1650 N/A 0.1700

Objective 3: Goodness-of-fit statistics to

estimate future diameter

CALIBRATION VALIDATION

MIXED MIXED

STATISTIC OLS MODEL OLS MODEL

MODEL MODEL

MSE 12.2156 0.4108 15.257 0.075

RMSE 3.4951 0.6409 3.906 0.037

BIAS 0.5863 -0.0610 0.199 0.407

RELATIVE

2.8456 0.2959 0.905 1.853

BIAS

MAD 2.7170 0.4489 15.257 1.075

R2 0.7575 0.9918 0.716 0.980

Objective 3: Distribution of errors when

predicting future diameter

1-YEAR HENCE 2-YEAR HENCE PADIM

2

FDM 2 PADIM 2

FDM 2

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

0 0 0 0

-2 -2 -2 -2

0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50

2

3-YEAR HENCE 2 2

4-YEAR HENCE 2

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

0 0 0 0

-2 -2 -2 -2

0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50

2

5-YEAR HENCE 2 2

6-YEAR HENCE 2

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

RESIDUAL (cm)

0 0 0 0

-2 -2 -2 -2

0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50

Objective 3: MSE behavior when predicting

periodic annual diameter

increment with FDM and PADIM

1 Y E A R IN C R E M E N T

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

0 .1 4 3 YE A R IN C R E M E N T

0 .1 2

MSE-PADIM

0 .1 0

0 .0 8

0 .0 6

0 .0 4

0 .0 2

0 .0 0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

4 YE A R IN C R E M E N T

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

D B H C la s s (c m ) P A D IM

FDM

Objective 3: MSE behavior when predicting

future diameter with FDM and

PADIM

2.0

0.8

1 YEAR HENCE 2 YEAR HENCE

0.6 1.5

0.4

ERROR_FDM

ERROR_FDM

1.0

0.2

0.5

0.0

-0.2 0.0

-0.4

-0.5

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

D B H C las s (c m ) D B H C las s (c m )

3 1.6

3 YEAR HENCE 1.4 4 YEAR HENCE

1.2

2 1.0

0.8

0.6

ERROR_FDM

ERROR_FDM

MSE

1 0.4

0.2

0.0

0 -0.2

-0.4

-0.6

-1 -0.8

-1.0

-1.2

-2

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

D B H C las s (c m ) D B H C las s (c m )

2.0 5.5

1.8

1.6 5 YEAR HENCE 5.0

4.5

6 YEAR HENCE

1.4 4.0

1.2

1.0 3.5

3.0

ERROR_FDM

ERROR_FDM

0.8

0.6 2.5

0.4 2.0

0.2 1.5

0.0 1.0

-0.2 0.5

-0.4 0.0

-0.6

-0.8 -0.5

-1.0 -1.0

-1.2 -1.5

-1.4 -2.0

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

D B H C las s (c m ) D B H C las s (c m )

FDM

D B H C la s s (c m )

P A D IM

Objective 3: Advantages and disadvantages of

FDM and PADIM

• Best in estimating • Very low values for the coefficient of

PADI. determination statistic (R2) .

• Increasing trend in bias and MSE for

estimating future diameter.

PADIM • Error distribution for this model is also

concentrated mostly above the zero

reference line, indicating that there is

a systematic underestimation of future

diameter.

• Best in estimating • Did not accurately predict periodic

FDM

future diameter. annual diameter increment.

Conclusions

• Ecological implications

• Social implications

• Model use

• Limitations

• Future Research

Contributions to scholarship

of P. occidentalis

• Objective 1

– Variation in tree form between zones

• Objective 2

– Variation over time for DBH distribution

• Objective 3

– Lack of variation in diameter growth between zones

– Short term non linear growth

Acknowledgements

• SUNY ESF Teaching Assistantship program

• Dissertation Committee Members

– Dr. Ralph D Nyland

– Dr. Ed White

– Dr. Lianjun Zhang

• Examiner

– Dr. Steve Stehman

• Dr. Eddie Bevilacqua

• Him

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