0 Up votes0 Down votes

1 views11 pages4

Mar 08, 2019

© © All Rights Reserved

- Probability-1
- Exercise Discrete Probability Distribution ( Bernouli, Binomial, Poisson)
- Binomial Distribution
- BSN3 BioStat 6Binomial Distribution-1.ppt
- Binomial
- Algorithms for Randomness in the Behavioral Sciences
- chap 1
- Glossary of Statistical Terms
- Variance of Binomial Distribution - ProofWiki
- binomial dist
- Revision MCII 08-02-2015
- Revision MCII 08-02-2015.pdf
- ch1
- Chapter 7 8fhjg
- Chap 02 Probability.ppt
- 7A PP With Notes
- R Intruction
- Statistical-Tables-and-Formulae.pdf
- Moosegard95 MC Sampling InverseProblems
- Aggregate Losses

You are on page 1of 11

(Example and Exercises, Walpole, 8th edition)

Example

The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a given shock test is

3

. Find the probability that exactly 2 of the next 4 components tested survive.

4

P(a ≤ X ≤ b). Binomial sums can be written as:

Table A.1 gives the probability of the binomial distribution for n = 1, 2, ….., 20

and selected p from 0.1 to 0.9.

Example

The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 people

are known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that

a) at least 10 survive

b) from 3 to 8 survive

c) exactly 5 survive

1

Example

A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic device from a

manufacturer. The manufacturer indicates that the defective rate of the device is

3%.

(a) The inspector of the retailer randomly picks 20 items from a shipment. What is

the probability that there will be at least one defective item among these 20?

(b) Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and the inspector

randomly tests 20 devices per shipment. What is the probability that there will be 3

shipments containing at least one defective device?

Theorem 5.2

The mean and variance of the binomial distribution are

Example

Refer to Lecture 19. Find the mean and variance of the binomial random variable

then use Chebyshev’s theorem to interpret the interval 2 .

2

Multinomial Experiments

The binomial experiment becomes a multinomial experiment if each trial has more

than 2 possible outcomes.

If a given trial can result in k outcomes, E1, E2, ….., Ek with probabilities p1, p2,

…..,pk, then the probability distribution of the random variables, X1, X2, ….., Xk,

representing the number of occurrences for E1, E2, ….., Ek in n independent trials is

k k

with xi n

i 1

and p

i 1

i 1

Example

The complexity of arrivals and departures into an airport is such that computer

simulation is often used to model the ‘ideal’ conditions. For a certain airport

containing three runaways it is known that in the ideal setting the following are the

probabilities that the individual runaways are accessed by a randomly arriving

commercial jet

Runaway 1: p1 = 2/9

Runaway 2: p2 = 1/6

Runaway 3: p3 = 11/18

What is the probability that 6 randomly arriving planes are distributed in the

following fashion?

Runaway 1: 2 airplanes,

Runaway 2: 1 airplanes,

Runaway 3: 3 airplanes.

3

Exercise

1. One prominent physician claims that 70% of those with lung cancer are chain

smokers. If his assertion is correct:

(a) Find the probability that of 10 such patients recently admitted to a hospital,

fewer than half are chain smokers.

(b) Find the probability that of 20 such patients recently admitted to a hospital,

fewer than half are chain smokers.

Exercise

2. According to a study published by a group of University of Massachusetts

sociologists, approximately 60% of the Valium users in the state of Massachusetts

first took Valium for psychological problems. Find the probability that among the

next 8 users interviewed from this site,

(a) Exactly 3 began taking Valium for psychological problems

(b) At least 5 began taking Valium for problems that were not psychological.

4

Exercise

3. A nationwide survey of seniors by the University of Michigan reveals that almost

70% disapprove of daily pot smoking according to a report in Parade. If 12 seniors

are selected at random and asked their opinion, find the probability that the number

who disapprove of smoking pot daily is

(a) anywhere from 7 to 9;

(b) at most 5;

(c) not less than 8.

5

Hypergeometric Distribution

independence among trials is required (the sampling must be done with

replacement of each item observed; binomial distribution).

the Hypergeometric distribution does not require independence and is based on

the sampling done without replacement.

items labelled success and n – x failures from N – k items labelled failures when a

random variable sample of size n is selected from N items. The properties of a

Hypergeometric experiment are;

1. A random sample of size n is selected without replacement from N items,

2. k of the N items may be classified as successes and N – k are classified as

failures.

of successes in a random sample of size n selected from N items of which k are

labelled success and N – k labelled failure, is

Theorem 5.3

The mean and variance of the Hypergeometric distribution h(x; N, n, k) are

6

Example

Lots of 40 components each are called unacceptable if they contain as many as 3

defectives or more. The procedure for sampling the lot is to select 5 components at

random and to reject the lot if a defective is found. What is the probability that

exactly 1 defective is found in the sample if there are 3 defectives in the entire lot?

Find the mean and variance of the random variable then use Chebyshev’s theorem

to interpret the interval 2 .

7

Poisson Distribution and the Poisson Process

The Poisson process has the following properties:

1. The number of outcomes occurring in one time interval or specified region is

independent of the number that occurs in any other disjoint time interval or

region of the space. It has no memory.

2. The probability that a single outcome will occur during a very short time

interval or in a small region is proportional to the length of the time interval or

the size of the region. It does not depend on the number of outcomes occurring

outside this time interval or region.

3. The probability that more than one outcome will occur in such a short time

interval or fall in such a small region is negligible.

number of outcomes occurring in a given time interval or specified region denoted

by, t, is

where is the average number of outcomes per unit time or region and e = 2.71828.

Example

During a laboratory experiment, the average number of radioactive particles

passing through a counter in 1 millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6

particles enter the counter in a given millisecond?

8

Example

Ten is the average number of oil tankers arriving each day at a certain port city.

The facilities at the port can handle at most 15 tankers per day. What is the

probability that on a given day, tankers have to be turned away?

The mean and variance of the Poisson distribution p(x;t) both have the value t.

The Poisson distribution is a limiting form of the Binomial. In the case of the

Binomial, if n is quite large and p is small, the condition simulates the continuous

space or time region implications of the Poisson process.

Let X be a binomial random variable with probability distribution b(x; n, p). When

n , p 0 , and np remains constant,

9

Example

In a certain industrial facility accidents occur infrequently. It is known that the

probability of an accident on any given day is 0.005 and accidents are independent

of each other.

(a) What is the probability that in any given period of 400 days there will be an

accident on one day?

(b) What is the probability that there are at most three days with an accident?

Example

In a manufacturing process where glass products are produced, defects or bubbles

occur, occasionally rendering the piece undesirable for marketing. It is known that,

on average, 1 in every 1000 of these items produced has one or more bubbles.

What is the probability that a random sample of 8000 will yield fewer than 7 items

possessing bubbles?

10

Extra Exercises

Exercise

1. The probability that a person will dies from a certain respiratory infection is

0.002. Find the probability that fewer than 5 of the next 2000 so infected will

die.

Exercise

2. The probability that a student fails in the screening test for scoliosis (curvature

of the spine) at a local high school is known to be 0.004. Of the next 1875 students

who are screened for scoliosis, find the probability that

(a) fewer than 5 fail the test;

(b) 8, 9, or 10 fail the test.

Exercise

3. The acceptance scheme for purchasing lots containing large number of batteries

is to test no more than 75 randomly selected batteries and to reject a lot is a single

battery fails. Suppose the probability of a failure is 0.001

(a) What is the probability that a lot is accepted?

(b) What is the probability that a lot is rejected on the 20th test?

(c) What is the probability that it is rejected in 10 or less trials?

11

- Probability-1Uploaded byskipobrien
- Exercise Discrete Probability Distribution ( Bernouli, Binomial, Poisson)Uploaded bySahrish Asif
- Binomial DistributionUploaded byGopalsamy Selvadurai
- BSN3 BioStat 6Binomial Distribution-1.pptUploaded byKathHinlog
- BinomialUploaded byMaged Samir Samuel
- Algorithms for Randomness in the Behavioral SciencesUploaded byRafael Almeida
- chap 1Uploaded byRUHDRA
- Glossary of Statistical TermsUploaded byulastuna2001
- Variance of Binomial Distribution - ProofWikiUploaded bypaulicalejer
- binomial distUploaded byNazia Malik
- Revision MCII 08-02-2015Uploaded byVanusha Adihetty
- Revision MCII 08-02-2015.pdfUploaded byVanusha
- ch1Uploaded byPandu Doradla
- Chapter 7 8fhjgUploaded byJimmy Ly
- Chap 02 Probability.pptUploaded byKent Braña Tan
- 7A PP With NotesUploaded byPam
- R IntructionUploaded byRomeo Bruce
- Statistical-Tables-and-Formulae.pdfUploaded bySanele Mdlalose
- Moosegard95 MC Sampling InverseProblemsUploaded bySandeep Gogadi
- Aggregate LossesUploaded byBlimundo
- Brown Interval Binomial ProportionUploaded byMarcos Onreva
- Generating Random NumbersUploaded byFarhan Bayu
- Crossover Operation in Differential EvolutionUploaded bypurvi bajoria
- Section 4.6Uploaded byChang Broot
- Rp 581 Replacement of TableUploaded bysanty222
- CH 1 IntroductionUploaded byDeepesh Meena
- Ch2-Probability Concepts.pdfUploaded bykhawla2789
- 10_A_StudyUploaded byLily Gurung
- InventoryUploaded byindu_shr89
- MonteCarlo NotesUploaded byShiraz Siddiqui

- Improved Rijndael-Like S-Box and Its Transform Domain AnalysisUploaded byhieunc04
- Introduction to DAAUploaded byagrawalpriyanka
- 1. Complex NumbersUploaded byAnonymous vRpzQ2BL
- 10 FEM2&3DUploaded byLazuardi Pujilaksono
- 4th-Sem-Subjects EC 2013 14Uploaded byPArk100
- Simulation RecordUploaded byVinoth Malaikani
- Lecture Note 4 to 7 OLSUploaded byViktória Kónya
- Lax-Milgram Lemma and ApplicationsUploaded byjnds9413
- https___isidore.udayton.edu_access_content_attachment_211f364d-62a2-495d-9ade-e848cff7f36c_Assignments_1d4b1015-19f6-4bad-88e4-57ac956e0425_hw1.pdfUploaded byChethan Jalli
- Markov chain implementation in C++ using EigenUploaded bypi194043
- dsp with matlabUploaded byPanku Rangaree
- ch5-6Uploaded byggghghk
- control systemsUploaded byAnonymous FRJktAGZm
- Step Examiners Report 2014Uploaded byPatbal
- QT-III-IV-SEM.pdfUploaded bydil. 1122
- 2-Vector Operation and Force AnalysisUploaded byAnonymous Hs3j0xgV
- Electromagnetism Principles and Applications - Lorraine & CorsonUploaded byRoberto Mascarenhas
- All ExercisesUploaded byTien Nguyen
- GitHub - Kroitor_gjk.c_ Gilbert-Johnson-Keerthi (GJK) Collision Detection Algorithm in 200 Lines of Clean Plain CUploaded byNehal Vaghasiya
- 10_maths_demo_both.pdfUploaded bySourabh Chhatwal
- Week 2 MKPK.pdfUploaded byM Hasan Fajri At-Tamimi
- 0606_s17_qp_21Uploaded byRayYong
- 1652413.pdfUploaded byJorge Luis
- Biz - Quatitative.Managment.Method Chapter.04Uploaded byphannarith
- 7) C2 Geometric Sequences and SeriesUploaded byAhmed Khalil
- Expected ValueUploaded bymenilanjan89nL
- 4b - 4.4 to 4.5Uploaded byMeire Souza
- christoffel.pdfUploaded byhammoudeh13
- Mathematics 1Uploaded byVinay Kandula
- MC1Uploaded byastari rahmadita

## Much more than documents.

Discover everything Scribd has to offer, including books and audiobooks from major publishers.

Cancel anytime.