ScarboroughNorth 20dec2018a

Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Scarborough North
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience in all three levels of government, President and CEO
Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on international public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snap-
shots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, and was
the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal
election. Mainstreet also accurately predicted the Miami & New York City Mayoral elections,
and the Alabama special election in 2017. Mainstreet Research is a member of the World
Association for Public Opinion Research and meets international and Canadian publication
standards.
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on December 19th-21st
2018 among a sample of 592 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Scarborough North.
The survey was conducted using live agents. Respondents were interviews on landlines and
cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population in Scarborough
North.
The margin of error for the poll is +/- 4.03% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error
are higher in each subsample.
Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.
1
As you might have heard, Premier Doug Ford is in the process of repeal-
ing the sex ed curriculum instituted by Kathleen Wynne. The provincial
government has been consulting Ontario parents as to what should re-
place it. Do you support the Ford government’s effort to repeal and re-
place the sex ed curriculum that was put in place by the previous Liberal
government?
14 %
43 %
42 %
Response Yes No Not Sure
crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household
Gender Age Have Children?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Yes No
Yes 43.5% 46% 41.1% 43.7% 44.7% 53.8% 25.9% 37.4% 46.8%
No 42.5% 41.5% 43.3% 49.5% 39.7% 31.5% 52.6% 51.6% 37.5%
Not Sure 14.1% 12.5% 15.5% 6.8% 15.6% 14.7% 21.6% 11.1% 15.7%
Unweighted Frequency 592 268 324 32 76 204 280 112 480
Weighted Frequency 592 241 264 132 161 125 86 177 327
2
crosstabbed by party support
Party
Total PC NDP Liberals Green Other UD
Yes 43.5% 69.7% 26.2% 24.8% 9.4% 18% 49%
No 42.5% 16.4% 66.6% 66.5% 70.7% 21.2% 22.4%
Not Sure 14.1% 13.9% 7.1% 8.7% 20% 60.8% 28.6%
Unweighted Frequency 592 216 98 180 22 26 50
Weighted Frequency 592 192 92 141 20 14 44
crosstabbed by language
Language
Total English Cantonese Mandarin
Yes 43.5% 43% 37.8% 67.5%
No 42.5% 43.2% 48.4% 8.9%
Not Sure 14.1% 13.8% 13.7% 23.6%
Unweighted Frequency 592 530 34 28
Weighted Frequency 592 467 22 15
3
Did you or someone in your household participate in any way in the con-
sultation process for replacing the sex ed curriculum, either by attend-
ing a meeting, by participating in a telephone townhall, or by completing
an online survey?
7%
8%
13 %
72 %
Attended A Meeting In Person Participated In A Telephone Townhall

Response
Participated In An Online Survey Did Not Participate/Can't Remember

Attended A Meeting In Person 6.9% 7.8% 6.1% 6.8% 10.3% 6.6% 1.3% 10.9% 4.7%
Participated In A Telephone Townhall 8.4% 7.4% 9.3% 12.6% 8.2% 6.9% 4.8% 17.5% 3.5%
Participated In An Online Survey 12.6% 9.3% 15.6% 26.1% 7.8% 10.9% 3.4% 6.5% 15.9%
Did Not Participate/Can’t Remember 72% 75.4% 68.9% 54.5% 73.8% 75.6% 90.5% 65% 75.8%
4
Party
Attended A Meeting In Person 6.9% 8.9% 10.5% 5.7% 0% 0% 0%
Participated In A Telephone Townhall 8.4% 3.9% 10.2% 17.7% 2.8% 0% 0%
Participated In An Online Survey 12.6% 14.8% 10.3% 13.8% 13.1% 7.8% 5.9%
Did Not Participate/Can’t Remember 72% 72.4% 69% 62.8% 84.1% 92.2% 94.1%
Language
Attended A Meeting In Person 6.9% 7.1% 5.8% 3.8%
Participated In A Telephone Townhall 8.4% 9% 2.5% 0%
Participated In An Online Survey 12.6% 13.3% 7.5% 0%
Did Not Participate/Can’t Remember 72% 70.7% 84.2% 96.2%
5
Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly
right?
37 % 36 %
27 %
A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth
Response Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth
Not Sure

A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth 36.4% 37.4% 35.4% 37.8% 31.6% 47.8% 26.4% 28.8% 40.5%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth 27.1% 22.2% 31.5% 25.2% 31.9% 19.6% 31.8% 30.2% 25.4%
Not Sure 36.5% 40.4% 33% 36.9% 36.5% 32.6% 41.8% 41% 34.1%
Party
A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth 36.4% 52.1% 20.4% 24.3% 0% 21.3% 61.5%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth 27.1% 12.5% 58.7% 33.2% 39.4% 16.8% 2.5%
Not Sure 36.5% 35.4% 20.8% 42.6% 60.6% 62% 35.9%
6
Language
A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth 36.4% 35.3% 29.2% 80.2%
Someone can be a man or a woman even if that is different from the sex they were assigned at birth 27.1% 26.4% 48.8% 15.4%
Not Sure 36.5% 38.3% 22% 4.4%
7
The previous sex ed curriculum included lessons that taught “Gender
Identity Theory,” that is, that there are many genders other than “male”
and “female”. Do you agree or disagree with teaching this to children
in Ontario schools?
14 %
22 %
34 % 18 %
11 %
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

Response
Strongly disagree Not Sure

Strongly agree 22.4% 22.9% 22% 18.5% 23.8% 21.4% 27.4% 33.3% 16.5%
Somewhat agree 18% 20% 16.1% 17.6% 18.8% 15.7% 20.3% 10.2% 22.1%
Somewhat disagree 11% 11.9% 10.2% 5.9% 16% 11.8% 8.5% 11.1% 11%
Strongly disagree 34.2% 32.5% 35.8% 44.6% 23.4% 40.5% 29.4% 28.9% 37.1%
Not Sure 14.4% 12.7% 15.9% 13.5% 18.1% 10.6% 14.4% 16.5% 13.3%
8
Party
Strongly agree 22.4% 16% 45% 18.5% 32.4% 7.8% 15.9%
Somewhat agree 18% 10.1% 28.5% 26.3% 8.5% 13.5% 9.1%
Somewhat disagree 11% 11.6% 9% 15% 6.5% 7.8% 2.9%
Strongly disagree 34.2% 54.5% 9.5% 19.6% 32.6% 26.4% 47.5%
Not Sure 14.4% 7.7% 8.1% 20.5% 20% 44.6% 24.6%
Language
Strongly agree 22.4% 23.1% 16.2% 8.9%
Somewhat agree 18% 16.7% 48.1% 11.5%
Somewhat disagree 11% 11.2% 5.8% 11.5%
Strongly disagree 34.2% 34% 19.5% 63.7%
Not Sure 14.4% 14.9% 10.4% 4.4%
9
The Ford government has announced that it has halted the Ontario cap-
and-trade carbon tax program. Do you agree or disagree with this deci-
sion?
20 %
25 %
14 %
31 %
9%
Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

Response
Strongly disagree Not Sure

Strongly agree 25.5% 35.9% 16% 18.5% 25.1% 39.4% 16.7% 18.7% 29.2%
Somewhat agree 14.5% 17.9% 11.4% 17.6% 16.4% 9.7% 13.3% 17.3% 13%
Somewhat disagree 8.9% 5.9% 11.7% 0% 13.5% 10% 12.3% 9.2% 8.7%
Strongly disagree 31.4% 26.7% 35.7% 32% 31.6% 26.6% 37% 36.5% 28.6%
Not Sure 19.8% 13.7% 25.3% 32% 13.5% 14.3% 20.6% 18.3% 20.5%
10
Party
Strongly agree 25.5% 46.2% 4.6% 4% 22.8% 7.8% 54.8%
Somewhat agree 14.5% 18.1% 14% 12.7% 25.9% 3.9% 4%
Somewhat disagree 8.9% 2.3% 19.3% 10.5% 13.1% 36.2% 0%
Strongly disagree 31.4% 11.1% 47.7% 53.1% 15% 43.1% 19.5%
Not Sure 19.8% 22.3% 14.5% 19.7% 23.2% 9% 21.7%
Language
Strongly agree 25.5% 25% 24.5% 43.3%
Somewhat agree 14.5% 14.7% 10% 15.3%
Somewhat disagree 8.9% 8.9% 11.2% 4.4%
Strongly disagree 31.4% 31.9% 40.2% 0%
Not Sure 19.8% 19.5% 14.1% 36.9%
11
Now that Ontario has no cap and trade policy and no carbon tax, Prime
Minister Justin Trudeau has said that the federal carbon tax program
will now apply to Ontario.
Do you support or oppose Justin Trudeau’s plan to introduce a new

federal carbon tax in Ontario?
11 %
33 %
38 %
10 %
8%
Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose

Response
Strongly oppose Not Sure
12

Strongly support 32.7% 37.4% 28.4% 24.3% 39% 27.4% 41.6% 35.3% 31.3%
Somewhat support 10.4% 8% 12.6% 0% 13.5% 15.8% 12.8% 9.3% 11%
Somewhat oppose 8% 6.4% 9.4% 0% 10.6% 10.9% 10.8% 8.6% 7.6%
Strongly oppose 37.8% 41% 34.9% 56.3% 31.6% 38.9% 19.5% 41.3% 35.9%
Not Sure 11.1% 7.2% 14.7% 19.4% 5.3% 7% 15.3% 5.6% 14.1%
Party
Strongly support 32.7% 9.5% 43.9% 57.4% 52.4% 42.5% 18.8%
Somewhat support 10.4% 6.4% 18.8% 9.2% 12.2% 36.2% 5.1%
Somewhat oppose 8% 10.3% 2.6% 6.9% 20% 0% 9.3%
Strongly oppose 37.8% 65.6% 18% 14.3% 12.2% 8.4% 55%
Not Sure 11.1% 8.2% 16.7% 12.2% 3.3% 12.9% 11.8%
13
Language
Strongly support 32.7% 33% 45.2% 3.8%
Somewhat support 10.4% 10.6% 7.9% 7.7%
Somewhat oppose 8% 6.3% 13.7% 51%
Strongly oppose 37.8% 39.1% 24.5% 17.7%
Not Sure 11.1% 11% 8.7% 19.8%
14
It is now legal to consume cannabis in Canada. Today, the legal age to
or sell or consume cannabis products is 19 in Ontario, while the Quebec
government has introduced a law to restrict cannabis to those aged 21
or over in that province.

right?
18 %
22 %
61 %
The legal age should be 19
Response The legal age should be raised to 21
Not Sure

The legal age should be 19 21.6% 31.7% 12.4% 23.4% 28.7% 13.5% 17.4% 22% 21.4%
The legal age should be raised to 21 60.9% 52.4% 68.6% 64% 50.4% 70.6% 61.6% 59.4% 61.6%
Not Sure 17.5% 15.9% 19% 12.6% 20.9% 16% 21% 18.6% 16.9%
15
Party
The legal age should be 19 21.6% 19.6% 29.9% 24.9% 28.7% 7.8% 4%
The legal age should be raised to 21 60.9% 64.5% 52.5% 63.9% 41.5% 43.7% 67.2%
Not Sure 17.5% 16% 17.5% 11.2% 29.8% 48.5% 28.8%
Language
The legal age should be 19 21.6% 21.3% 39.4% 3.8%
The legal age should be raised to 21 60.9% 60.7% 49.4% 84.7%
Not Sure 17.5% 18% 11.2% 11.5%
16
The Government of Ontario recently announced that Ron Taverner will
become the Head of the Ontario Provincial Police . There has been
a controversy with this appointment because Taverner is a personal
friend of Premier Doug Ford, and because, part way through the hir-
ing process, the job description was changed so that Taverner would
become eligible for the job.

right?
25 % 22 %
54 %
Ford should be able to appoint anyone
Response There has been too much controversy and the process should start over
Not Sure
17

Ford should be able to appoint anyone 21.7% 28.2% 15.6% 17.6% 29.1% 22.2% 13.3% 21.8% 21.6%
There has been too much controversy and the process should start over 53.6% 44.2% 62.1% 44.6% 50.8% 58.9% 64.8% 51.8% 54.5%
Not Sure 24.8% 27.5% 22.3% 37.8% 20.2% 19% 21.9% 26.5% 23.9%
Party
Ford should be able to appoint anyone 21.7% 38.8% 8.3% 8.8% 0% 39.5% 20.4%
There has been too much controversy and the process should start over 53.6% 33.8% 85.4% 65.3% 67.4% 47.6% 31.1%
Not Sure 24.8% 27.4% 6.3% 26% 32.6% 12.9% 48.5%
Language
Ford should be able to appoint anyone 21.7% 21.7% 18.7% 24.8%
There has been too much controversy and the process should start over 53.6% 52.9% 62.2% 59.9%
Not Sure 24.8% 25.4% 19.1% 15.3%
18
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
18 %
2% 35 %
4%
All Voters
24 %
17 %
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath
Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner
Another Party Undecided

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 35.5% 42.7% 28.8% 36.9% 33.6% 41% 28.6% 33.9% 36.3%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 17% 17.8% 16.3% 12.6% 26.2% 9.6% 17.3% 21.4% 14.7%
Liberals, John Fraser 24% 20.3% 27.3% 25.2% 15.6% 26.9% 33.5% 23% 24.5%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 3.8% 4.5% 3.2% 0% 7.8% 4% 2% 5.9% 2.7%
Another Party 2% 0.7% 3.2% 0% 2.9% 2.1% 3.5% 3.3% 1.3%
Undecided 17.7% 13.9% 21.2% 25.2% 13.9% 16.5% 15.2% 12.5% 20.5%
19
Party
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 35.5% 93.2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 17% 0% 92.9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Liberals, John Fraser 24% 0% 0% 85.5% 0% 0% 0%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 3.8% 0% 0% 0% 96.7% 0% 0%
Another Party 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 70.4% 0%
Undecided 17.7% 6.8% 7.1% 14.5% 3.3% 29.6% 100%
Language
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 35.5% 34.2% 32.1% 80.8%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 17% 17.9% 5.4% 7.7%
Liberals, John Fraser 24% 23.5% 48.8% 0%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 3.8% 4.1% 0% 0%
Another Party 2% 2.2% 0% 0%
Undecided 17.7% 18.1% 13.7% 11.5%
20
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(decided and leaning voters)
4% 3%
42 %
31 %
All Voters
20 %
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath
Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner
Another Party

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 41.8% 48% 36.2% 50% 35.5% 47.3% 33.2% 35.7% 45.3%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 19.9% 19.2% 20.6% 14.5% 30.7% 11.7% 19.7% 24.9% 17%
Liberals, John Fraser 30.9% 26.5% 34.9% 35.5% 22.5% 32% 38% 29.8% 31.5%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 4.2% 4.7% 3.8% 0% 8.2% 4.5% 2.9% 6.1% 3.2%
Another Party 3.1% 1.5% 4.6% 0% 3% 4.5% 6.1% 3.5% 2.9%
21
Party
Total PC NDP Liberals Green Other
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 41.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 19.9% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Liberals, John Fraser 30.9% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 4.2% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0%
Another Party 3.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
Unweighted Frequency 542 216 98 180 22 26
Weighted Frequency 542 193 92 143 20 14
Language
Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford 41.8% 40.4% 35.5% 92.2%
NDP, Andrea Horwath 19.9% 20.8% 9.1% 7.8%
Liberals, John Fraser 30.9% 30.8% 55.4% 0%
Greens, Mike Schreiner 4.2% 4.6% 0% 0%
Another Party 3.1% 3.4% 0% 0%
22
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Doug Ford?
13 %
7%
39 %
42 %
Favourable Unfavourable
Response Not familiar with Doug Ford Not Sure

Favourable 38.5% 50% 28.1% 42.8% 36.1% 44.4% 27.8% 38.1% 38.7%
Unfavourable 41.8% 34.9% 48.1% 32% 47.9% 35.3% 54.8% 41.5% 41.9%
Not familiar with Doug Ford 6.5% 4.9% 8.1% 12.6% 2.9% 5.8% 5.2% 4% 7.9%
Not Sure 13.1% 10.3% 15.8% 12.6% 13.1% 14.4% 12.1% 16.3% 11.5%
23
Party
Favourable 38.5% 86.4% 3.1% 5.8% 22.8% 31.7% 18.7%
Unfavourable 41.8% 3% 83.6% 68.2% 64.6% 41.3% 28.1%
Not familiar with Doug Ford 6.5% 0.9% 6.4% 9.9% 6.1% 0% 22.7%
Not Sure 13.1% 9.6% 6.9% 16.1% 6.5% 27% 30.5%
Language
Favourable 38.5% 37.5% 29.2% 84.7%
Unfavourable 41.8% 42.9% 45.6% 0%
Not familiar with Doug Ford 6.5% 6.4% 7.9% 7.7%
Not Sure 13.1% 13.1% 17.4% 7.7%
24
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Andrea Horwath?
19 %
42 %
9%
29 %
Response Not familiar with Andrea Horwath Not Sure

Favourable 42% 42.2% 41.9% 37.8% 60.3% 25.6% 38.3% 61.5% 31.5%
Unfavourable 29.4% 33.8% 25.4% 36.9% 23.8% 34.9% 20.3% 13.9% 37.7%
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath 9.5% 6.5% 12.2% 19.4% 2.9% 7.8% 9.2% 5% 11.9%
Not Sure 19.1% 17.5% 20.5% 5.9% 13.1% 31.8% 32.2% 19.6% 18.9%
25
Party
Favourable 42% 21.9% 81% 37.9% 69.5% 65.2% 40.8%
Unfavourable 29.4% 50.2% 6.3% 24.5% 15% 3.9% 17.7%
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath 9.5% 11.2% 1.2% 8.5% 2.8% 9% 25.6%
Not Sure 19.1% 16.7% 11.5% 29.1% 12.6% 21.9% 15.8%
Language
Favourable 42% 43% 42.7% 11.5%
Unfavourable 29.4% 30.1% 30.3% 4.4%
Not familiar with Andrea Horwath 9.5% 7.9% 10.8% 59.3%
Not Sure 19.1% 19.1% 16.2% 24.8%
26
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Raymond Cho?
25 %
32 %
17 %
26 %
Response Not familiar with Raymond Cho Not Sure

Favourable 32.1% 34.5% 29.8% 36.9% 34.4% 29.3% 24.2% 38.9% 28.4%
Unfavourable 26% 22.8% 29% 26.1% 29.1% 19.9% 28.9% 26% 26%
Not familiar with Raymond Cho 16.8% 15.1% 18.3% 18.5% 11% 22.7% 16.2% 8% 21.5%
Not Sure 25.2% 27.6% 22.9% 18.5% 25.5% 28.1% 30.7% 27% 24.2%
27
Party
Favourable 32.1% 40.6% 24% 26.1% 12.6% 65.8% 28.5%
Unfavourable 26% 16.1% 35.9% 33.5% 43% 8.4% 22.7%
Not familiar with Raymond Cho 16.8% 20.9% 9.4% 13.7% 9.4% 16.8% 27.1%
Not Sure 25.2% 22.4% 30.6% 26.8% 35% 9% 21.7%
Language
Favourable 32.1% 31.3% 63.1% 8.9%
Unfavourable 26% 27.3% 14.1% 3.8%
Not familiar with Raymond Cho 16.8% 15.6% 2.9% 75.2%
Not Sure 25.2% 25.8% 19.9% 12.1%
28

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Mainstreet Research Survey of Voting Intentions in Scarborough North

Response Yes No Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Attended A Meeting In Person Participated In A Telephone Townhall

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

A man or a woman is determined by the sex they were assigned at birth

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Strongly agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Do you support or oppose Justin Trudeau’s plan to introduce a new

Strongly support Somewhat support Somewhat oppose

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly

The legal age should be 19

Response The legal age should be raised to 21

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Which statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly

Ford should be able to appoint anyone

Gender Age Have Children?

crosstabbed by party support

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath

Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner

Another Party Undecided

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Progressive Conservatives, Doug Ford NDP, Andrea Horwath

Response Liberals, John Fraser Greens, Mike Schreiner

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Doug Ford Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Andrea Horwath Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

Response Not familiar with Raymond Cho Not Sure

crosstabbed by age, gender, and children in the household

Gender Age Have Children?

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