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—E— Prepared for Senators Wardner and Holmberg ‘and Representatives Pollert and Delzer, PROPOSED REVENUE FORECASTS 2017-19 BIENNIUM Revised General Fund Revenue Forecasts _The Schedule below provides information on the 2017-19 biennium revised general fund revenue forecast based on the January 2018 legislative forecast, the March 2019 revised executive revenue forecast, March 2019 estimates Prepared by IHS Markit, and a proposed forecast. 2077-79 Biennium Revised Forecast ‘March 2018] —Warch 2078 January 2019 | Revised 1S Markit Legislative Executive Baseline Forecast Forecast Forecast’ Forecast Tax and foe revenues ‘Sales and use tax $1,748,254,113|, $1,772,276,208| _$1,770,208,520| . $1,772,278,206 Motor vehicle excise tax 239,980,388) 237,472,237} '241,060,707| 239,080,288, Individual income tax 764,312,657 773,943,125} 7a4.096.447| 767,812,657 Comorate income tax. 179,908,244) 174,877,170] 218,734.303| 470/908 244 il and gas tax collections 400,000,000) 400,000,000] 400,000'000} 400,000,000 Coal conversion tax 41,997,227} 43,219,207 43.219227| “43°210.227 Cigarette and tobacco tax 92,054,549] 51,852,548] 51,852.548| 51\a52.548, Wholesale liquor tax 17,87.575| 17,951,575] 17,951,675] _—_‘17/981'875 ‘Gaming tax 8'528,322 "228,321 7'228,321 7.228321 Insurance premium tax 110,325,897] 110,326.897) 110'925'807 Departmental collections 24,883,438] 84,883,438] 94,883,438 Interest income 9.471.168 9,471,168 9.471.168 Mineral leasing fees 38,872,687 38,872687| __ 38,872/687 Total tax and fee revenues $3,689,616,964) $3,722,373,599| $3,736,884,098| _$3,723,702.356 Transfers and other sources Bank of North Dakota profits '$140,000,000/ 140,000,000 $40,000,000] $40,000,000 Mill and Elevator profits 19,872,762 19,872,762, 19,872,762} 19,872,762 Lottery 14,800,000] 14,600,000] 14,600,000} 14'600,000 Gas tax administration 2,016,120, 2,016,120 2,016,120 016,120 Legacy fund 300,000,000] 300,000,000 300,000 /000 Strategic investment and improvements fund | 248,000,000 248,000,000 248,000,000 Tax relief fund 43,000,000 183,000,000 183,000,000 Research North Dakota fund 4,000,060 4,000,000, 4,000,000 Insurance tax distribution fund 475,000 ‘475,000 475,000 Other miscellaneous transfers 183,690 183,690, 183,690 Polltical subdivision ol tax distributions 2,875,000 2,875,000 2,875,000 Westem Area Water Supply Authority loan 25,000,000} 26,000,000 25,000,000 refinance Total transfers and other sources $940,022,572| _$040,022,572| _$940,022,.572| __$940,022,572 Total general fund revenues $4,623,836,636 | $4,662,396,171| $4,678,907,510| _$4,663,004,928 NOTE: The shaded rows reflec the four major tax types for general fund revenue, which are based on economic forecasting data provided by consultants (Moody's Analytics and IHS Markl). “Excluding the shaded amounts, all other amounts shown under the March 2019 IHS Markit baseline forecast reflect the amounts included in the March 2019 revised executive forecast, Oil Price and Production Forecasts ‘The schedule below provides information on the oil price and oil production forecasts for the remainder of the 2017-19 biennium based on the January 2018 legislative forecast, the March 2019 revised executive revenue forecast, March 2019 estimates prepared by IHS Markit, and a proposed forecast. 2017-18 Biennium ‘January 2019 | March 2019 Revised | March 2078 HS Warkit Proposed Legislative Forecast Executive Forecast_| Baseline Forecast Forecast [Average ollprice [$42.50 per barrel" | $43 to $49 per barrel | $56 to $61 per barrel | SAT per barel Noh (North Dakota price) | (North Dakota price) (West Texas Dakota price) Intermediate price) [Average daily ol! | 1.36 milion barrels | 1.30 1.4 milion barrels | 1.4 millon bares. | 1.38 milion barrels Production NOTE: The amounts shown for the average oil price and production reflect the forecasts forthe remainder ofthe biennium. North Dakota Legistative Council March 2019 19,9586.02000 ‘Attached as an Appendix is a schedule detailing the estimated allo the proposed forecast. tion of oll and gas tax collections based on 2019-21 BIENNIUM General Fund Revenue Forecasts “The schedule below provides information on the 2019-21 biennium general fund revenue forecast based on the January 2019 legislative forecast, the March 2019 revised executive revenue forecast, March 2019 estimates prepared by IHS Markit, and a proposed forecast. om B 7019.21 Biennium Forecast March 2019 | _ March 2019 January 2019 | Revised Legislative Executive Proposed Forecast Forecast Forecast’ Forecast ‘Tax and fee revenues Sales and use tax '$1;709,802;200)|""'$1,972,076,000] $1,670.864-200) $1,868,262,000 ‘Motor vehicle excise tax '261,107,385| 240,613,000} 268,883,010] 250,107,000 Individual income tax 201616428] 826,480,000] 783,043,300] 815,615,000 ‘Corporate income tax 92,957,085 122.47,000| 196,179,730) 132,968,000 Gitand gas tax collections 300,000,000 300,000'000 300,000,000] 300,000,000 Coal conversion tax '38,032,000| 41,438,000| 41,436,000] 41,438,000 Cigarette and tobacco tax 48,281,000] 47,838,000| 47,838,000] 47,838,000 Wholesale iquor tax 18,757,000| 18,703,000 18,703,000 18,703,000 Gaming tax 6,850,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 8,000,000 Insurance premium tax +108,400,000| 108,400,000 108,400,000] 108,400,000 Departmental collections 90,882,286 90,882,286 90,882:286| 90,882,000 Interest income 38,000,000| 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 Minoral lescing foos 32,000,000| __38,000,000| _38,000,000 38,000,000 Total tax and fee revenues 33,704,684,962| $9,826,183,286| —$9,589,231,626| $3,730,209,000 ‘Transfers and other sources Bank of North Dakota profits 140,000,000] $140,000.00] $140,000.00] $40,000,000 Mil and Elevator profs 13,400,000] 13,400,000 13,400,000 Lottery 13,000,000 13,000,000 +31000,000 Gas tax administration 4,981,024 1,981,024 4,991,024 Legacy fund 300,000,900|_300,000,000 ‘Total transfers and other sources 450,391,024] 468,301,024] $468,201,024| _ $268,001,024 Total general fund revenues $4.173,075,908| $4,294,674,310| $4,057,622,660| $3,908,594,024 NOTE: The shaded rows reflect the four major tax types for general fund revenue, which are based on economic forecasting data provided by consultants (Moody's Analytics and IHS Markit), ‘Excluding the shaded amounts, all other amounts shown under the March 2019 IHS Markit baseline forecast reflect the ‘amounts included in the March 2019 revised executive forecast. Oil Price and Production Forecasts ‘The schedule below provides information on the oil price and oil production forecasts for the 2019-21 biennium based on the January 2019 legislative forecast, the March 2019 revised executive forecast, March 2019 estimates prepared by IHS Markit, and a proposed forecast. 2018-21 Biennium Warch 2079 January 2019 _ | March 2019 Revised | IHS Markit Baseline Proposed | Legislative Forecast | Executive Forecast Forecast Forecast, [Average ol price "$42.50 per barrel | $49.60 10 $49 per | $61 10558 per Darrel | $48.50 to $48 per (North Dakota price) barrel (West Texes | barrel (North Dakota (North Dakota price) | Intermediate price) rice) |average dally of production | 1.35 milion barrels | 1.4t0144 millon | 1.4t01.3milion | 1.40 1.44 milion barrels barrels barrels ‘Attached as an Appendix is a schedule detailing the estimated allocation of oil and gas tax collections based on the proposed forecast. North Dakota Legislative Council 2 March 2019 {700,000,000 )) ~ 20M ESTIMATED OIL AND GAS TAX REVENUES - MARCH 2019 PROPOSED REVENUE FORECAST APPENDIX The schedule below provides information on the estimated oll and gas tax revenue collections and allocations {for the 2017-19 and 2019-21 bienniums based on current law reflecting a March 2019 proposed revenue forecast, The amounts shown for the 2017-19 biennium reftect oil production remaining at 1.38 milion barrels per day and prices remaining at $47 per barrel for the remainder of the biennium. The amounts shown for the 2019-21 biennium reflect oil production remaining at 1.4 million barrels per day for the 1% day for the 2 year and oil prices remaining at $48.50 per barrel for the 1* 204 year, year and 1.44 million barrels per year and $48 per barrel for the Oil price and production (biennium average) 2019.21 Biennium Production n barrels +.420,000 Price per barel $46.25 Collections Gross production tox $2,348,090,00 $2,450:600,000 Ot extraction tx 21170.360000 400,580,000 Total collections ‘$4,519,050,000 ‘$4,851,190,000 Allocations Tree Afated Tribes 442,620,000 $494,970,000 egecy tuna 220840.000 1'309.870,000 North Dakota outdoor heritage un 40,800,000 30 320,000, [Abandoned wel reclamation nd 400,000 44/820.000 Ot and ges impact grant fund 28,380,000 5.000.000 Pica subansione 662.720.000, 698,840,000, Energy impact und 000.000 ° [Common schools rst fund 173.00,000 190:510,000| 7 Foundation a sttiizaton fund 4173000,000 4190.810,000, Resources trust fund 2 Do 347,310,000 381,210,000 ll and gas research fone 40000,000 40,000,000, Site energy research center fund ° ° General fund 400,000,000, 300,000,000 ax ret und 200,000,000 200,000,000 Budget stabizaton fund 75,000,000 78,000,000, ignite research und 000,000 3,000,000 Sate disaster oie fund ° ° arpa nfrastrctre fund ° 8 County and township infastuctur fund 8 0 tponinfrastructare fund ° 8 Stetegi investment and improvements fund 758,300,000 $69,940,000 Total oil tax allocations ‘$4,519,050,000 $4,851,190,000 Bes | Zol | wre North Dakota Legislative Couneit March 2019