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2. What is the role of consumption, income & saving variables in economic development.
3. Explain the significance of whole sale price index in estimating the inflation
a. Macroeconomic policies
i. Fiscal policy
• Inflation
• Output growth
• Unemployment rate
Seasonal unemployment
Disguised unemployment
Under unemployment
Open unemployment
Frictional unemployment
Structural unemployment
Self employment
Change in education system
The combined value of all the final goods and services produced in a country during an
accounting year, including net factor income from foreign countries.
Calculation of GNP
Where,
Reduction in the value of the fixed assets used in production during the accounting period
resulting from physical deterioration, normal obsolescence or normal accidental damage.
Not a method of allocating the costs of past expenditures on fixed assets. Rather, fixed assets at a
given moment in time are valued according to the remaining benefits derived from their use.
The consumption of fixed capital is one of the most important elements in the System... It may
account for 10 per cent or more of total GDP."
NDP at factor cost = GDP (factor cost) – Capital Consumption Allowances where
They include
Sales taxes,
Fuel taxes,
Net Factor Income from the Rest of the World (NFIA) consists of the net income receipts from
the rest of the world such as
The total income that can be used by the household sector for either consumption
expenditures or saving during a given period of time, usually one year. Disposable
income (DI) is one of three measures of income reported in the National Income and
Product Accounts maintained by the Bureau of Economic Analysis
Officially calculated as the difference between personal income and personal tax and
nontax payments increased by around 820%.
Savings represent the excess of current income over current expenditure and is the
balancing item of the income and outlay accounts
Per Capita GNP at Factor Cost is defined as the country's gross national product (GNP) divided
by its population
Shows the income each person would have if GNP were divided equally. Also called income per
capita.
Indian WPI -> weekly, Thursday -> stock & fixed price.
Price of goods.
WPI in India
◦ Indicator of inflation.
Measures price change for a constant market basket of goods and services.
Price index -> of a standard group of goods -> market of an urban consumer.
Can be used to index wages, salaries, pensions, and regulated or contracted prices.
CPI in india
CPI UNME -> Central Statistical Organization; others -> Department of Labor.
Coonclusion
Household, public, private sectors– linear increase while GCF– constant during initial
stages; then linear increase. Fall in employment sector. Difference b/w M & F.
6. Degree of inflation:
In under-developed countries, a degree of inflation is required for economic development. After
a limit, inflationary be used to get rid of this situation.
the above mentioned instruments are used by the public authorities to achieve desirable level of
production, consumption and National Income. During inflationary trend more and more taxes
are levied on the community. In this way, purchasing power of the people can be decreased and
desirable price level is achieved. During inflation public expenditure is decreased so that all in
production may decrease high prices and increase the value of money. During deflationary
period taxes are reduced and public expenditure is increased. In this way incentives to invest are
increased and national income begins to rise. For economic development public debts are
necessary. In under developed countries, due to insufficient resources economic development is
not possible. Public loans are drawn internally and externally.
The above mentioned methods are called budgetary policy of the government. This policy can
increase national income, production level and maintain full employment level.
Business cycles refer to regular oscillations in the level of business activity over a period of
years, which when economic activity speeds up or slows down. In fact business cycles and
unemployment reflect unavoidable features of a market economy.
KEYNES DEFINITION
“A trade cycle is composed of periods of good trade characterized by rising prices and low
unemployment percentages altering with periods of bad trade characterized by falling
prices and high unemployment percentages.”
SAMUELSON
“A business cycle is a swing in total national output, income and employment, usually
lasting for a period of 2 to 10 years, marked by widespread expansion or contraction in
many sectors of the economy.”
• Business cycled denote the fluctuation in economic activity which occur in a more or less
regular time sequence in capitalist societies.
• Following Macro economic variables will reflect the fluctuations
• Volume of Employment
• Price level
• Output
• income
• The graph of the business cycled look like a wave with regular rises and falls
• All recorded cycles are members of the same family, but among them there are no
twins
• Downward movement is quicker and more violent than the opposite one
• The upward movement is slower and the wave has gentle slopes
• The phases of the cycle appear in all types of business through in varying degres,ex-
production and prices
• Output and employment in durable goods and capital goods, fluctuate more than in
consumption goods
• Changes in total output and employment are generally associated with change in
currency, credit and velocity of circulation of money
• All business cycles do not affect the macro economy to the same extent
• Depression
• Recovery
• Prosperity
• Recession
Sampath Mukharjee-P-788
DEPRESSION
• Every activity in low level, High Unemployment ,low incomes, low consumption
expenditure, low demand, low prices, discouragement to entrepreneurs, low
purchasing power
• The economy comes back to equilibrium on the basis of lower equilibrium and
incomes
RECOVERY-
• Incomes increases
• MEC Increases
PROSPERITY
• Larger investments
RECESSION
• Check on investments
• Exogenous theories
• Wars
• Revolutions
• Elections
• Gold Discoveries
• Migrations
• Technological innovations
• Climate change
• Change in weather
INTERNAL THEORIES
• Reduction in investment, spending and inventory accumulation, which tend the economy
into recession
• Political Theory
• Innovation Theory
• Keynes Theory
Political theories
• Although the us economy went through a deep recession early in his term, by the time he
was running for election in 1984,the economy was growing rapidly which contributed to
a reelection landslide
INNOVATION THEORY
Keynes Theory
Stabilization Policies
• Fiscal Policy
• Monetary Policy
• Expansionary Policy
• Contractionary Policy
International trade is also a branch of economics, which together with International finance,
forms the larger branch of International economics.
Traditionally trade was regulated through bilateral treaties between two nations. For centuries
under the belief in Mercantilism most nations had high tariffs and many restrictions on
international trade. In the nineteenth century, especially in Britain, a belief in free trade became
paramount and this view has dominated thinking among western nations for most of the time
since then. In the years since the Second World War multilateral treaties like the GATT and
World Trade Organization have attempted to create a globally regulated trade structure.
Communist and socialist nations often believe in autarchy, a complete lack of international trade.
Fascist and other authoritarian governments have also placed great emphasis on self-sufficiency.
No nation can meet all of its people's needs, however, and every state engages in at least some
trade.
Free trade is usually most strongly supported by the most economically powerful nation in the
world. The Netherlands and the United Kingdom were both strong advocates of free trade when
they were on top, today the United States, the European Union and Japan are its greatest
proponents. However, many other countries - including several rapidly developing nations such
as India, China and Russia - are also becoming advocates of free trade.
Traditionally agricultural interests are usually in favour of free trade while manufacturing sectors
often support protectionism. This has changed somewhat in recent years, however. In fact,
agricultural lobbies, particularly in the United States, Europe and Japan, are chiefly responsible
for particular rules in the major international trade treaties which allow for more protectionist
measures in agriculture than for most other goods and services.
During recessions there is often strong domestic pressure to increase tariffs to protect domestic
industries. This occurred around the world during the Great Depression leading to a collapse in
world trade that many believe seriously deepened the depression.
The regulation of international trade is done through the World Trade Organization at the global
level, and through several other regional arrangements such as MERCOSUR in South America,
NAFTA between the United States, Canada and Mexico, and the European Union between
twenty five independant states. There is also the newly established Free Trade Area of the
Americas (FTAA), which provides common standards for almost all countries in the American
continent.
Risks in international trade
The risks that exist in international trade can be divided into two major groups:
Economic risks
Political risks
• Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and
services. It is measured as an annual percentage increase. As inflation rises, every dollar
you own buys a smaller percentage of a good or service.
• The value of a dollar does not stay constant when there is inflation. The value of a dollar
is observed in terms of purchasing power, which is the real, tangible goods that money
can buy. When inflation goes up, there is a decline in the purchasing power of money.
For example, if the inflation rate is 2% annually, then theoretically a $1 pack of gum will
cost $1.02 in a year. After inflation, your dollar can't buy the same goods it could
beforehand.
• Deflation is when the general level of prices is falling. This is the opposite of inflation.
• Hyperinflation is unusually rapid inflation. In extreme cases, this can lead to the
breakdown of a nation's monetary system. One of the most notable examples of
hyperinflation occurred in Germany in 1923, when prices rose 2,500% in one month!
• Stagflation is the combination of high unemployment and economic stagnation with
inflation. This happened in industrialized countries during the 1970s, when a bad
economy was combined with OPEC raising oil prices.
•
In recent years, most developed countries have attempted to sustain an inflation rate of 2-
3%.
Causes of Inflation
Economists wake up in the morning hoping for a chance to debate the causes of inflation.
There is no one cause that's universally agreed upon, but at least two theories are
generally accepted:
Demand-Pull Inflation - This theory can be summarized as "too much money chasing too
few goods". In other words, if demand is growing faster than supply, prices will increase.
This usually occurs in growing economies.
Cost-Push Inflation - When companies' costs go up, they need to increase prices to
maintain their profit margins. Increased costs can include things such as wages, taxes, or
increased costs of imports.
Costs of Inflation
Almost everyone thinks inflation is evil, but it isn't necessarily so. Inflation affects
different people in different ways. It also depends on whether inflation is anticipated or
unanticipated. If the inflation rate corresponds to what the majority of people are
expecting (anticipated inflation), then we can compensate and the cost isn't high. For
example, banks can vary their interest rates and workers can negotiate contracts that
include automatic wage hikes as the price level goes up.
• Creditors lose and debtors gain if the lender does not anticipate inflation correctly. For
those who borrow, this is similar to getting an interest-free loan.
• Uncertainty about what will happen next makes corporations and consumers less likely to
spend. This hurts economic output in the long run.
• People living off a fixed-income, such as retirees, see a decline in their purchasing power
and, consequently, their standard of living.
• The entire economy must absorb repricing costs ("menu costs") as price lists, labels,
menus and more have to be updated.
• If the inflation rate is greater than that of other countries, domestic products become less
competitive.
•
People like to complain about prices going up, but they often ignore the fact that wages
should be rising as well. The question shouldn't be whether inflation is rising, but
whether it's rising at a quicker pace than your wages.
Finally, inflation is a sign that an economy is growing. In some situations, little inflation
(or even deflation) can be just as bad as high inflation. The lack of inflation may be an
indication that the economy is weakening. As you can see, it's not so easy to label
inflation as either good or bad - it depends on the overall economy as well as your
personal situation.
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Supply Fundamentals
The aggregate quantity of goods and services supplied depends on three factors:
• The quantity of labor (L )
The quantity of capital (K )
• The state of technology (T )
• The aggregate production function shows how quantity
of real GDP supplied,Y, depends on labor, capital, and
technology
At any given time, the quantity of capital and the state of technology are fixed but the quantity of
labor can vary.
The higher the real wage rate, the smaller is the quantity of labor demanded and the greater is the
quantity of labor supplied.
The wage rate that makes the quantity of labor demanded equal to the quantity supplied is the
equilibrium wage rate and at that wage the level of employment is the natural
rate of unemployment
We distinguish two time frames associated with different states of the labor market:
• Long-run aggregate supply
• Short-run aggregate supply
The macroeconomic long run is a time frame that is sufficiently long for all adjustments to be
made so that real GDP equals potential GDP and there is full employment.
The long-run aggregate supply curve (LAS) is the relationship between the quantity of real GDP
supplied and the price level when real GDP equals potential GDP
The macroeconomic short run is a period during which real GDP has fallen below or risen above
potential GDP. At the same time, the unemployment rate has risen above or fallen below the
natural unemployment rate.
The short-run aggregate supply curve (SAS) is the relationship between the quantity of real GDP
supplied and the price level in the short run when the money wage rate, the prices of other
resources, and potential GDP remain constant
The SAS curve is upward
sloping because a rise in
the price level with no
change in costs induces
firms to bear a higher
marginal cost and increase
production; and a fall in the
price level with no change
in costs induces firms to
decrease production to
lower marginal cost.
When potential GDP increases, both the LAS and SAS curves shift rightward.
Potential GDP changes, for three reasons:
• Change in the full-employment quantity of labor.
The quantity of real GDP demanded,Y, is the total amount of final goods and services produced
in the United States that people, businesses, governments, and foreigners plan to buy.
This quantity is the sum of consumption expenditures,C, investment,I, government purchases,G,
and net exports, X– M. That is:
Y= C+ I+ G+ X– M
Buying plans depend on many factors and some of the main ones are:
• The price level
• Expectations
Expectations about future income, future inflation, and future profits change aggregate demand.
Increases in expected future income increase people’s consumption today, and increases
aggregate demand. A rise in the expected inflation rate makes buying goods cheaper today and
increases aggregate demand.
An increase in expected future profits boosts firms’ investment, which increases aggregate
demand.
Fiscal policy is the government’s attempt to influence economic activity by changing its taxes,
spending, deficit, and debt policies.
A tax cut or an increase in transfer payments increases households’ disposable income—
aggregate income minus taxes plus transfer payments. An increase in disposable income
increases consumption expenditure and increases aggregate demand.
Because government purchases of goods and services are one component of aggregate demand,
an increase in government purchases increases aggregate demand.
Monetary policy is changes in the interest rate and quantity of money.
An increase in the quantity of money increases buying power and increases aggregate demand.
A cut in the interest rate increases expenditure and increases aggregate demand.
The world economy influences aggregate demand in two ways:
A fall in the foreign exchange rate lowers the price of domestic goods and services relative to
foreign goods and services, increases exports, decreases imports, and increases aggregate
demand.
An increase in foreign income increases the demand for U.S. exports and increases aggregate
demand
Macroeconomic Equilibrium
An aggregate demand curve is the sum of individual demand curves for different sectors of the
economy. The aggregate demand is usually described as a linear sum of four separable demand
sources.[3]
where
These four major parts, which can be stated in either 'nominal' or 'real' terms, are:
• gross private domestic investment (I), such as spending by business firms on factory
construction. This includes all private sector spending aimed at the production of some
future consumable.
o In Keynesian economics, not all of gross private domestic investment counts as
part of aggregate demand. Much or most of the investment in inventories can be
due to a short-fall in demand (unplanned inventory accumulation or "general
over-production"). The Keynesian model forecasts a decrease in national output
and income when there is unplanned investment. (Inventory accumulation would
correspond to an excess supply of products; in the National Income and Product
Accounts, it is treated as a purchase by its producer.) Thus, only the planned or
intended or desired part of investment (Ip) is counted as part of aggregate demand.
(So, I does not include the 'investment' in running up or depleting inventory
levels.)
o Investment is affected by the output and the interest rate (i). Consequently, we can
write it as I(Y,i). Investment has positive relationship with the output and negative
relationship with the interest rate. For example, an increase in the interest rate will
cause aggregate demand to decline. Interest costs are part of the cost of borrowing
and as they rise, both firms and households will cut back on spending. This shifts
the aggregate demand curve to the left. This lowers equilibrium GDP below
potential GDP. As production falls for many firms, they begin to lay off workers,
and unemployment rises. The declining demand also lowers the price level. The
economy is in recession.
In sum, for a single country at a given time, aggregate demand (D or AD) = C + Ip + G + (X-M).
These macrovariables are constructed from varying types of microvariables from the price of
each, so these variables are denominated in (real or nominal) currency terms.
We start with an aggregate demand curve, and we pick two points on that curve, points “a” and
“b”.
8. Discuss the role of central banking in both advanced and developing country.
• It lies on the top of the pyramid of the banking structure of a country with wide
powers of supervision and control over all other banks
need for a Central Bank
FUNCTIONS OF CB:
• Keeps the cash balances of the government and maintains the accounts
• Bankers‘ bank
• Exchange control
• Resource mobilization
• Finance to agriculture
• Finance to industries
• Finance to SMEs
Monetary Policy:
• It refers to the policy of the government regarding money supply
• It must decide about the aims and objectives relating to the monetary management
• It will be carried away by various traditional and selective instruments of credit control
Sameulson said that mild inflation lubricates the wheels of trade and industry
Slowly rising price level can expand output so long the country has unemployed
resources and idle capacity
An opposite school of thought advocates a slowly falling price level as the aim of the
monetary policy
• Neutral Money
Money should perform the passive functions of acting as the medium of exchange and the
unit of account without having no dynamic functions which affect the economy
• Exchange Stability
• It needs appropriate use and proper coordination of monetary and other major policies of
the government which influence business activity
High Employment
Price Stability
Economic Growth
MONEY SUPPLY:
• M1=Currency with Public(Includes with the public &The commercial banks)+ Demand
Deposits with the banking system+ other deposits with the RBI
• Narrow Money
It excludes time deposits based on the argument that they are income earning assets and
therefore illiquid
• Broad Money
It includes time deposits following the argument that, as time deposits are income earning
assets and people have acquired them by converting cash into time deposits for earning
future interest income some amount of liquidity is incorporated in time deposits
The basic flaw of the RBI in the process of accounting broad money is that it considers
only time deposits with the banking system and excludes huge volume of money held by
the public with the Non Performing Financial Companies
• These terms are extensively used by the academicians not by the monetary authorities