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STOCK VALUATION OF PT TIGA PILAR SEJAHTERA FOOD TBK AFTER

DIVESTITURE

Aglentia Dwi Fitri


NIM : 29116503
School of Business and Management
Institute Teknologi Bandung
Aglentia.dwi@sbm-itb.ac.id

ABSTRACT
In 2017, the stock price of PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food,Tbk (AISA) has been decrease significantly. AISA’s
subsidiary had been sold subsidized government rice with premium label which is not suitable of the quality, it
leads the company sued by its action. The fraud case also affects the AISA’s financial performance therefore AISA
can’t pay its debt that will mature in 2018 and 2019. So, AISA takes divestiture strategy in order to pay its debt
and also eliminates the investor’s negative perspective. This research is to identify the divestiture effects in AISA's
financial performance, especially in its stock price with two valuation models, namely modified absolute valuation
models used FCFF and relative valuation models used PER. And also, to identify the influence of external and
internal analysis to the AISA’s financial performance. The recommendation for investor is buy stock since the
AISA’ stock being undervalued (both modified absolute valuation and relative valuation) and the external analysis
shows that AISA has good opportunity in the future. On the other hand, from internal analysis the investors should
consider about the company’s implementation of Good Corporate Governance to anticipate the fraud case will
happen again

Keywords: divestiture, Good Corporate Governance, rice business, financial analysis, stock valuation.

Introduction

Indonesia has the highest population in comparison with Southeast Asian countries amounted to 264
million (Badan Pusat Statistik, 2017). With a high population of Indonesia is a lucrative market for food
and beverage industry, coupled with the characteristics of food and beverage industry products that
basic human needs (primary needs). The lucrative market is also followed by the growth in the food
and beverage industry in 2017 where the amounted to 9.23%, which is increasing compared to the year
of 2016 mounted to 8.46% (Kementerian Perindustrian Republik Indonesia, 2017). So, it becomes an
advantage for food and beverage player like PT. Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA). AISA is
engaged in two business lines, which are TPS Food and TPS Rice. TPS Food is a core business of the
company that produce basic food (ready to cook) and consumer food (ready to eat) (PT Tiga Pilar
Sejahtera Food , 2016). In 2010, AISA entered the rice business in order to expand the market but TPS
rice is facing a serious problem in 2017. A subsidiary of PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk namely PT
Indo Beras Unggul (rice trader) produced rice with a premium label, while in fact the rice sold to
consumers was a cheap rice subsidized by the government. Because of the fraud case, stock price of PT
Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA) plunged to 400 points or 24.92% to IDR 1,205 per share in stock
trading on July 21th 2017. The fraud case also affects the company's rice business revenue. It makes the
revenue of rice business declined in 2017, the company only posted the revenue of rice business
amounted to IDR 2,367,138 million. The revenue of rice business cannot cover its COGS and operating
expenses in the rice business which are too high, therefore the company suffered loss in 2017. Because
of financial difficulties in 2017, the company can’t pay its debt that will mature in 2018 and 2019.

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In order to pay its debt and also eliminates the investor negative perspective, the company takes the
strategic decision to divest its rice business. The shareholders also agreed to divest the company's rice
business at General Shareholders Meeting (GMS) on November 20th, 2017. AISA's strategic decision
to divest the rice business will affect its revenues, where the rice business has the largest contribution
for AISA's total revenue. In 2016, the company's total sales reached IDR 6.5 trillion with a total sales
contribution amounted to 61.28% coming from the rice business. The objective of this research is to
identify the divestiture affect to AISA’s financial performance, especially on its stock price as well as
to the influence of external and internal analysis on company’s financial performance. In order to give
the recommendation for investors whether the AISA’s stock is worth to buy, hold or sell after
divestiture.

Research Methodology

In order to achieve the objective of this research, the used of conceptual framework is needed to analyze
business issue and obtain business solution. Figure 1 shows the steps that will be applied in this research.

Business Issue

External Analysis Internal Analysis

Macroeconomic Company’s Financial Corporate Governance


Industry Analysis
Condition Ratio Analysis

SWOT Analysis Risk Analysis

Root Cause:
The fraud case in their rice
business which creates negative
perspective from the public

Divest Rice Business

-Absolute Valuation
Stock Valuation
-Relative Valuation

Recommendation

Buy Hold Sell

Figure 1 Conceptual Framework

Business Situation Analysis


External and internal factors are needed to know about the current business situation that can affecting
the company itself. External factors are used to analyze macroeconomic conditions in Indonesia using
PEST analysis as well as food and beverage industry using porter’s five force analysis. For internal
factors consist of AISA's financial ratio before divestiture and the implementation of Good Corporate
Governance in PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk to analysis fundamental of the company in current
condition. Risk analysis is needed to determine what risks that faced by the company and can have an

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impact on AISA's stock performance. Those analysis will assist to determine the root cause of the
AISA’s business issue.

Determine the Root Cause


This research used five why to determine the root cause of business issue. By asking "why" five times,
it will help identify the symptoms of the problem that will lead to the root cause. Starting from asking
why to the business issue, the AISA stock price dropped significantly in mid-2017. From this analysis,
then it can be obtained the root cause of this issue is the fraud case in its rice business which creates the
negative perspective from investors.

Business Solution
Company’s Financial Ratios after divestiture
The company’s strategic decision to divest its rice business will have an effect on its company’s
performance as well as its stock price. The company takes strategic decision to divestiture in order to
generate healthier cash flow in the future. This research provides the company’s financial ratio after
divestiture as an overview for investors about the company’s performance in the future.

Table 1 Company's Financial Ratios After Divestiture


Liquidity 2017 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F 2027F Avg industry 2017
1.2 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8
Current Ratio

0.8 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4
Quick Ratio

0.05 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4
Cash Ratio

Activity
3.06 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 3.48 4.44
Inventory Turnover

2.33 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 2.96 5.38
Account Receivable Turnover

0.56 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.98
Total Assets Turnover

Average Collection Period 157 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 123 68

Debt
60.97% 46.31% 47.95% 49.42% 50.74% 51.90% 52.42% 52.36% 51.78% 50.72% 49.21% 46.36%
Debt Ratio

156.24% 86.24% 92.12% 97.72% 103.00% 107.90% 110.17% 109.91% 107.38% 102.92% 96.90% 90.20%
Debt to Equity Ratio

-1.311 7.995 7.995 7.995 7.995 7.995 7.995 7.995 7.995 7.995 7.995 7.37
Time Interest Earned Ratio

Profitabillity
-11.2% 15.80% 15.80% 15.80% 15.80% 15.80% 15.80% 15.80% 15.80% 15.80% 15.80% 7.50%
Operating Profit Margin

-17.2% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 10.37% 6.64%
Net Profit Margin

-9.7% 5.06% 5.24% 5.40% 5.54% 5.67% 5.73% 5.72% 5.66% 5.54% 5.38% 5.87%
Return on Total Assets
(ROA)

-24.9% 9.42% 10.06% 10.68% 11.25% 11.79% 12.03% 12.01% 11.73% 11.24% 10.59% 10.35%
Return on Equity (ROE)

12.7% 35.30% 35.30% 35.30% 35.30% 35.30% 35.30% 35.30% 35.30% 35.30% 35.30% 25.49%
Gross Profit Margin

-171.47 97.69 116.02 137.79 163.63 194.33 225.56 255.73 283.05 305.68 321.88 119.55
Earning Per Share (EPS)

Table 1 shows that the company's financial ratio, in 2017 the company has not yet done the divestiture
while in 2018F until 2027F the company already divested its rice business.

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Liquidity Ratios

The liquidity ratios increased compare with 2017. Current ratios, quick ratios and cash ratios are in the
industry average range and company’s liquidity ratio are increasing that indicates companies can pay
bills, salaries and short-term loans or timely bonds with their current assets.

Activity Ratios

The company’s activity ratios are lower compare with the industry which indicate that the company's
sales activity is slower than the industry, the slower the company to sell and change its inventory and
assets to the money back. The company have to utilize more its asset (land) to become some factories,
so in the future the company can generate more revenue. In order to generate more revenue in the future,
the company also need to utilize its inventory, so there is no excess inventory in the warehouse which
can minimize storage costs and minimize the risk of expired product. The company’s average collection
period is higher compare with the industry which indicate the company is less efficient in collecting
credit from customers due to poor credit management and collection department. So, the company need
to evaluate the effectiveness of company’s collection and credit policies

Solvency Ratios

The company cash flow become healthier than before indicated by an increase in time interest ratio
even more than the industry average. It means the ability of company to pay interest on debt is good
enough. The debt ratio and debt to equity ratio is decrease over time because the company can pay its
debt with the earn money from divestiture. This is in line with the company's divestiture purpose to
reduce debt and generate more healthier cash flow.

Profitability Ratios

The probability ratios are increasing in 2018F and the following years even more than average industry.
It makes the company more attractive to invest than its competitors within industry.

Absolute Valuation Model (Modified discounted method)

The valuation of this research used modified discounted method that reflect the possibility of distress.
Although the divestiture kept the company' cash flow back to positive, but the company will lose 61%
of its revenues. If the company's revenue decrease will make the company has a high risk of distress,
so the valuation calculation uses modified discounted cash flow (Damodaran, 2012). There are some
steps to do the valuation according to Damodaran (2012):

1. Determine discount rate


The valuation used Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), since the company has too high leverage
and expect to change in the following years. In addition, the company will divest its rice business
and will affect the company’ future performance, so the valuation has to represent the company as
a whole. The discount rate used to evaluate the company with the FCFF model is Weighted Average
Cost of Capital (WACC) which included the debt and equity portion in the company.

 Calculating the after-tax cost of debt (Kd).


The company has bonds payable, so the default spread on bonds must be included on cost of debt.
The default spread can be estimated using interest coverage ratio or time interest earned ratio.

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Table 2 Default Spread (Source: Damodaran 2012)
If the interest coverage ratio is
Greater than ≤ to Rating is Spread is
-100000 0.199999 D2/D 18.60%
0.2 0.649999 C2/C 13.95%
0.65 0.799999 Ca2/CC 10.63%
0.8 1.249999 Caa/CCC 8.64%
1.25 1.499999 B3/B- 4.37%
1.5 1.749999 B2/B 3.57%
1.75 1.999999 B1/B+ 2.98%
2 2.2499999 Ba2/BB 2.38%
2.25 2.49999 Ba1/BB+ 1.98%
2.5 2.999999 Baa2/BBB 1.27%
3 4.249999 A3/A- 1.13%
4.25 5.499999 A2/A 0.99%
5.5 6.499999 A1/A+ 0.90%
6.5 8.499999 Aa2/AA 0.72%
8.5 100000 Aaa/AAA 0.54%

Risk free rate is also included on the cost of debt, to determine the rate of return for the debtholder
or creditor with zero risk. Risk free rate obtained from Indonesia Bond Pricing Agency (updated
July 9th, 2018). By summing all of the costs that have to be paid by company, then the pretax
cost of debt can be obtained as well as tax benefit of 25%. So, the calculation for Kd is:

 Calculating the cost of equity (Ke). The model stated that the cost of equity is risk-free rate plus
a risk premium to cover the systematic risk of the stock securities.

𝐶𝐴𝑃𝑀 = 𝑅𝑓 +  ( 𝑅𝑚 − 𝑅𝑓 )

In evaluating the distress company, the beta is the bottom-up beta. Bottom up beta for distress
company obtained from:

 𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 =  𝑢𝑛𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑑 (1 + (1 − 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒) ( 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑡𝑜 𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 )


Thus, below is obtained WACC after divestiture for PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (Tbk):
Table 3 WACC

WACC
Debt Weight 46.31%
Equity Weight 53.69%
After Tax Cost of Debt (Kd) 8.08%
Cost of Equity (Ke) 18.59%
WACC 13.72%

2. Estimating the growth


Based on evidence, the company that has a rapid growth in one period, it will grow faster in the next
period (Little, 1962). This research used geometric average based on historical data to estimate
growth.
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𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 ( )
Geometric average = (𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 0 ) 𝑛 −1
−𝑛

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Due to the company's strategic decision to divest its rice business, the projection of income statement
and balance sheet based on the assumption of average percentage revenue only from food business.
The growth assumptions have to use a three-stage growth if the growth of the company is greater
than the economic growth and there are high barriers to entrants to the industry.

3. Free cash Flow to the Firm


The Expected Free Cash Flow in each period has to reflects the possibility of distress.

Table 4 Probability of Distress (Damodaran 2012)

Cumulative Probability of Distress


Rating
5 years 10 years
AAA 0.03% 0.03%
AA 0.18% 0.25%
A+ 0.19% 0.40%
A 0.20% 0.56%
A- 1.35% 2.42%
BBB 2.50% 4.27%
BB 9.27% 16.89%
B+ 16.15% 24.82%
B 24.04% 32.75%
B- 31.10% 42.12%
CCC 39.15% 51.38%
CC 48.22% 60.40%
C+ 59.36% 69.41%
C 69.65% 77.44%
C- 80.00% 87.16%
4. Equity Value
The firm value is estimated first and then converted to value of equity to get the intrinsic value.

The value of equity has to consider about the possibility of distress. First, the author needs to estimate
the variable on equity value that is cumulative probability of distress in the entire analysis period.

After calculating the variables of the equity value, and then those variables are included into distress
adjusted value of equity formula.

Intrinsic value obtained by dividing the current outstanding shares to the equity value. The current
outstanding shares of PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (Tbk) amounted to 3,219,000,000 shares. Table 4
shows the intrinsic value of PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (Tbk).

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Table 5 Intrinsic Value

Firm Value 3,795,419


Less: current outstanding debt 1,719,047
Equity value 1,994,796
Current shares outstanding 3,219
Intrinsic value per share 620
Buying Price as per Dec 31th, 2017 244
The current stock price amounted to IDR 244 while the target price will increase significantly after the
company divest its rice business, the target price will be IDR 620 with potential upside 154% from its
current stock price on Dec 31th, 2017. Based on the result, the recommendation for investors is to buy
the stock.

Relative Valuation

Data gathered from competitor’ annual report, this calculation using the number of shares outstanding,
net income and the end year stock price for each competitor. By obtaining Price earnings ratio for each
competitor, then the average price earnings ratio can be determined. Furthermore, the target price can
be obtained by multiplying Earning Per share with average price earnings ratio. According to
Damodaran (2012), relative valuation model can use for distress company by added the probability of
distress.
Table 6 Price-to-Earnings Ratio

Price-to-Earnings Ratio
Companies 2015 2016 2017 2018F Target Price
AISA 12.04 10.55 -2.78 1.72 778
ICBP 23.99 26.22 26.27
INDF 14.05 15.77 15.51
CEKA 3.35 2.88 6.87
MYOR 17.36 26.23 28.20
ROTI 23.35 28.67 31.70
SKBM 21.48 21.33 47.67
SKLT 12.01 9.90 33.14
STTP 21.23 23.98 26.42
ULTJ 38.29 24.64 21.06
Average Industry 18.72 19.02 23.41 23.70

From the result, Price Earnings Ratio of AISA less preferable compared with other competitors. This
phenomenon affected by the company’s historical news, the company was indicated fraud in its rice
business, because of that the company net income suffered loss. On the other hand, if the company
divest its rice business, there will be better future for the company. So, it is suggested to buy company’
stock if they do the divestiture.

Technical Analysis

This research used four MA, which are MA 5 days (green line), MA 20 days (purple line), MA 60 days
(orange line) and MA 120 days (red line). The prices are taken based on historical data with daily data
range from Jan 1st, 2016 to July 5th, 2018 because the analysis of company's stock is before and after
the company experienced fraud case.

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4/12/2017
IDR 2350

7/21/2017
IDR 1205

2/23/2018
IDR 665

Figure 2 Technical Chart of PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk

Based on Figure 2, before the company experienced fraud in March 1st, 2017, the closed price was IDR
1980 which is higher than its open price (indicated by green candlestick). Coupled with the trend of
MA 5 is above the trend of MA 20, MA 60 and MA 120 which means that the stock price is in a strong
uptrend (bullish). This trend continued until the company reached the highest price on April 12, 2017
at the price of IDR 2350. The largest decline occurred on July 21, 2018, when AISA's subsidiary was
experienced fraud case, AISA's close price of IDR 1205 which dropped significantly from its open price
(red candlestick), followed by the trend of MA 5 crossed below the MA 20, MA 60 and MA 120 which
indicated the stock price is in a strong downtrend (bearish). AISA’s shares decreased into the lowest
price from last 15 years amounted to IDR 168 on July 5, 2018, followed by the trend of MA 5 crossed
below MA 20, MA 60 and MA 120 which indicated the AISA’s stock price is in the strong downtrend
(red circle).

Implementation
Since the divestiture strategy resulted the higher intrinsic value than current price and makes the
company’s cash flow healthier than previous year. In order to support the calculation, this research
provided the action plan as shows in the table 7.
Table 7 Divestiture Process
Step 1 a. Determines the company’s goals and objectives to divest its rice
business.
Preparing the business unit that
b. Identify the obstacle to sale the business unit and deal with them
will be sell and due diligence of
directly and upfront.
pre-sale
c. Conduct the detailed valuation in rice business unit and due
diligence of pre-sale based on historical data and makes a
projection.
Step 2 a. Completing and Analyzing the list of prospective buyers (buyers
mapping) and make a contact to prospective buyers directly.
Marketing the business unit that
b. Prepare presentation by company’s managerial.
will be sell

Step 3 a. Analyzing the qualified buyers including the financial ability of the
buyers to close the transaction.
Doing assessment of selection
b. Facilitating the company’s information (rice business) to qualified
buyers and due diligence
buyers.
c. Evaluating price that offered by buyer.
Step 4 a. Manage final due diligence process.
b. Agreement negotiation for the sale price.
Transaction closed
c. Ensure timely follow through and settlement of any post-sale.
Step 5 Do the checklist for the requirement

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Report to BEI and OJK
(Delloite, 2013)

Risk Analysis

The strategic decision of PT Tiga Pilar Sejahteran Food Tbk to divest its rice business will creates the
business risks and value loss if the company does not have disciplined manner to execute these risks.
Table 6 shows the critical risk of divestiture the business unit.
Table 8 Risks of Divestiture
No. Possible Risk Mitigation
Risk

1. Operational The company will lose 61% of its revenue. So, the company needs to optimize the
food business since the industry condition is quite good.

2. Human Loss of important personnel and overall reduction in resources. So, the company
Resources should formulate an HR separation strategy explicitly including the transition
process.

3. Finance The complexity of financial decomposition process to prepare financial closure in


divestiture. So, the collaboration between separation leader and financial leader
within the company is needed for divestiture to obtain an effective billing structure
at closing.

4. IT Access to internal corporate systems by buyers. So, the company have to review
the database that can be accessed by its former business and make an agreement
about limits for buyers regarding privacy information policy access.

Conclusion
1. From business situation analysis showed that the company has big opportunity in food and beverage
industry. This is due to the improvement of the Indonesian economy that will affect the growth of
food and beverage industry. With various government policies to improve the supply and
distribution of food, so it makes the prediction of volatile food inflation is still under control and it
becomes an advantage for the food and beverage players. With the increase in Indonesian total
population accompanied by an increase in the working population which shows an increase in
people's welfare, increase in middle-class and also increase in the Consumer Confidence Index. So,
that will increase the consumption of food and beverage (Bank Indonesia, 2017). With a high
Indonesian total population makes food and beverage industry is attractive for investors, coupled
with the political moments, Eid Mubarak, holiday allowance, thirteen salaries of civil servants and
Asian Games which will also increase the consumption of food and beverages. From internal
analysis, the company is in the financial difficulties in 2017 due to the problem in its subsidiary.
This is happened because the company has not been optimal in implementing Good Corporate
Governance. The occurrence of fraud case in company’ rice business shows the personal interest of
the PT Indo Beras Unggul director and can harm the stakeholders. So, the management not optimal
to identify integrity risk which is the fraud risk conducted by the subsidiary that can reduce the
company's reputation and can reduce the company's ability to maintain its survival. Moreover, the
internal audit committees are also not optimal in controlling the risks of the company.
2. The company's strategic decision to divest its subsidiary in rice business will have an effect on its
revenues. The company's revenue will decrease at the beginning of divestiture year by 61% of its

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previous total revenue, the revenue in 2018 will be IDR 3,032,545 million. But the food business
has a higher margin than the rice business so by focused on the food business, the company's revenue
will be back to the revenue in 2015 and 2016 in the next five years. The revenue projection will be
increased by 18.76%, using CAGR assumption only from the food business. Moreover, the
company's cash flow will be healthier compared with the previous year. Divestiture greatly affect in
the company's profitability ratio that will be increased significantly as well as the liquidity ratios and
time interest earned ratio, those ratios even exceeds the industry average ratios. And because the
company can pay its debts and eliminate the debts that burden the company, so the company’s debt
ratio is also decreasing after divestiture. But the company’s activity ratios still lower than average
industry, so in order to generate more revenue in the future, the company need to utilize its assets
(land) to become some factories and the company also need to utilize its inventory, so there is no
excess inventory in the warehouse which can minimize storage cost and minimize the risk of expired
product. For the company’s average collection period that still higher compare with the industry
which indicate the company is less efficient in collecting credit from customers due to poor credit
management and collection department. So, the company need to evaluate the effectiveness of
company’s collection and credit policies.
3. The absolute valuation resulted in intrinsic value of IDR 620 with potential upside 154% than current
stock price of PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food (Tbk) on Dec 31th, 2017 amounted to IDR 244 that
considered undervalue, this is due to the business issue that already discussed before. For relative
valuation, the company’ Price earnings ratio less preferable compared with other competitor due to
the sentiment perspective in AISA’s stocks. The use of absolute valuation is more suitable because
it is not influenced by market sentiment towards AISA's stocks.
4. This research provides the buy recommendation in AISA’s stock for investors because the
company's stock is being undervalued but it also has big opportunity in the future after the company
divest its rice business. On the other hand, investors should consider about the implementation of
Good Corporate Governance within the company to anticipate the fraud case will happen again

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