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1 SEED 2 SEED 3 SEED 4 SEED 5 SEED 6 SEED 7 SEED 8 SEED

DUKE MICHIGAN ST. LSU VIRGINIA TECH Mississippi st. MARYLAND LOUISVILLE VCU

W-L 29-5 28-6 26-6 24-8 23-10 22-10 20-13 25-7


W-L Top 25 9-4 5-3 4-2 2-6 3-6 2-6 3-8 0-1
W-L 26-50 4-1 8-0 5-2 3-2 4-1 4-2 3-2 1-0
W-L 51-100 4-0 5-2 8-2 4-0 8-3 7-1 3-1 5-3
W-L Last 10 GAMES 7-3 10-0 8-2 6-4 7-3 6-4 3-7 9-1
Home/ Away/Neutral 15-2/7-2/7-1 15-1/8-4/4-1 15-2/9-1/2-3 14-2/5-5/5-1 14-3/5-5/4-2 15-3/6-5/1-2 14-4/5-6/1-3 16-1/8-4/1-2

Conference ACC B10 SEC ACC SEC B10 ACC A10


Conf Record 17-4 18-4 16-3 13-7 11-9 13-8 11-9 16-3
Conf Champ: Y/N YES YES NO NO NO NO NO NO

Ken Pom Rank 3 4 18 11 21 24 17 37


RPI 1 10 13 27 24 29 33 25
SOS 2 20 25 51 11 12 4 66
Off Efficiency 6 4 10 11 14 27 29 172
Def Efficiency 6 8 62 25 51 22 17 7
Ken Pom Raw
Off 120.1 121.7 118.5 118.4 117.4 113.8 113.4 104.3
Def 88.1 90.4 97.5 94 96.7 93.8 92.4 88.6
TEMPO 18 182 66 337 178 274 194 136
Team: FG % 47.7% 48.6% 46.2% 47.6% 47.2% 45.4% 43.4% 44.2%
EFG % Offense 60 16 124 8 28 119 164 177
EFG % Defense 9 6 157 92 148 17 20 3
Turnover % Offense 122 188 155 109 227 262 120 280
Turnover % Defense 92 344 58 27 102 352 308 9
FT % 137 117 56 229 205 190 113 90
3pt fg % 30.2% 38.4% 32.3% 39.4% 37.8% 35.3% 34.2% 30.7%
3 POINT RATE 37.6% 37.8% 34.3% 45.7% 39.0% 37.0% 43.7% 41.1%
PPG 83.5 78.8 81.4 74.5 77.3 71.3 74.5 71.4
Opp PPG 67.6 65.5 73 62.1 70.1 65.1 67.8 61.6

Rebounding Margin per game 6.1 9 5.1 2.6 3.7 8.5 3.6 1.4

Coaches Prev NCAA App 34 21 0 7 10 8 8 0


FF Trips 12 7 0 0 3 0 0 0
City,State of Campus Durham, NC East Lansing, MI Baton Rouge, LA Blacksburg, VA Starkville, MS College Park, MD Louisville, KY Richmond, VA
Distance to 64/32 235 miles 537 miles 603 miles 2671 miles 2232 miles 717 miles 588 miles 372 miles
Distance to 16/8 257 miles 592 miles 1144 miles 269 miles 885 miles 13 miles 606 miles 108 miles
Distance to Final Four 1,201 miles 630 miles 1,209 miles 1,043 miles 1,006 miles 1,107 miles 716 miles 1,221 miles

ATS Record 18-16 24-10 19-12-1 16-14-1 16-17 16-15-1 17-14-1 20-11- 1
Conference ATS Record 9-12 17-6 14-5 8-11- 1 9-11 12-9 11-9 13-6
O/U record 9-23- 2 14-19- 1 19-12 16-14- 1 16-17 15-17 14-19 12-18
9 SEED 10 SEED 11 SEED 11 SEED 12 SEED 13 SEED 14 SEED 15 SEED 16 SEED

UCF Minnesota Belmont Temple Liberty Saint Louis Yale Bradley Play In Winner

Incredibly effecient
When Amir Coffey NDST shoots it well,
offense, 20th in OE,
can get his, 46th overall in DE, 52 overall in OEFG.
36th in DE, lot of big 3rd in offensive EFG, 12th in the country in 11th in the country in Shoot 36.8% from 3,
Minnesota is Top 100 OE and DE EFG on the defensive NC Central is 22nd in
bodies shoot 37.1% from 3 EFG offensive EFG 58th in the country
successful. 12-3 when side is 26th the country on the
and 2nd overall in
he scores 18 or more offensive glass
the land from 2

Dylan Windler is not Beat Houston by They're a talented


Tacko Fall is a name Great %'s on all Play very fast, 44th in Darrell Brown can get
talked about enough. home at 4 and played team that's had a lot
you may not be Have beaten Purdue facets of shooting, tempo and 57th in white hot and can
12th in the country in them tough on the of roster adversity Probably a great
3 things to like familiar with. He is twice in the last 11 65th from 3, 7th from possession length, create his own shot
true shooting road, lost by 7 . throughout the year, group of kids
7'6" and is a game days 2 and 7th from the will be able to keep in late-game
percentage at 68.6%. BONUS- Coaches last seem to be peaking
changer line up and score situations
Averages 21.4 PPG season. May rally at the right time

BJ Taylor, Aubrey Shoot 37.4% from 3, Beat Penn State in


Pitino's kid against Miss. St is 224th in
Dawkins, and Terrell Score in bunches. Don't turn the ball Javon Bess is the good for 42nd in the November (shoulder
Louisville, have to the country
Allen are all Have scored 80 or over, 22nd in the player to watch for country. LSU doesn't shrug emoji). Also Zion blows a shoe
think that is extra defending the 3.
upperclassmen more in 20 of their country in offensive the Billikens, had 24 necessarily defend it won their out in warmups?
motivation and Big Could be the
guards that can make games TO % against Davidson well, 161st in the conference, won 5 of
Rick will be involved difference in Round 1
big perimeter shots land their last 6

Played one team in


64.5 % from the FT Horrible shooting Not a deep team. Bottom of the barrel
Not good on offense, the top 70, Duke and
line, 333rd in the %'s, 284th from 3, Only get 27.7% of in the country
Lost to Tulsa by 18 Brutal on the 205th in OE and their lost by 32. Best W a 4
country. Close game 242nd from 2, 283rd their minutes from shooting from 2 point THEY
and Penn by 7 offensive glass, 258th shooting percentages point win against
late and this will from the stripe, EFG the bench which is range, 46.7%, 302nd
are horrible Miami in December
come into play overall is 284th 246th overall overall
on a neutral court

Don't force TO's,


3 things to Going against VCU off -2.9 rebounding Virginia Tech not a An average defense, aren't good on the
DISLIKE the bat and they
Louisville's D should 265th in the country
margin, 296th in the
Best wins? 2 against
good matchup for even for the Ivy offensive glass and PLAY
smother them on the offensive glass Lipscomb
have an elite defense country them League their offensive EFG is
221st in the country

Nick Muszynski's
Might just be happy
They may be big, but health is still Play at a very slow
They did most of with reaching the They're not very
you can get to the uncertain. The big tempo, 349th to be Yes, MSU has been
their damage in The Shoot 33.1% from 3, dance after an up- disruptive
offensive glass on the guy's absence in the exact. They get uninspiring of late in
Barn. The Gophers 204th overall in and-down year. defensively, towards DUKE
Knights. Second OVC title game might matched up with a the tournament but
were 2-9 in true road offensive EFG Hokies are finally the bottom of the
chance points are have been the run and gun team, they still play MSU
games. healthy and are country in forced TOs
their kryptonite. difference between bad news bears
hungry.
winning and losing.
1 SEED 2 Seed 3 SEED 4 SEED 5 SEED 6 SEED 7 SEED 8 SEED
VIRGINIA TENNESSEE PURDUE KANSAS ST. WISCONSIN VILLANOVA CINCINNATI MISSISSIPPI

W-L 29-3 29-5 23-9 25-8 23-10 25-9 28-6 20-12


W-L Top 25 7-3 6-4 2-4 3-4 1-5 1-2 0-3 3-6
W-L 26-50 6-0 4-0 7-2 5-2 9-2 1-2 4-1 1-1
W-L 51-100 3-0 7-0 7-2 7-2 5-2 16-4 13-1 5-5
W-L Last 10 GAMES 9-1 6-4 7-3 7-3 6-4 7-3 9-1 5-5
Home/ Away/Neutral 15-1/11-1/3-1 17-0/7-3/4-1 15-0/6-6/2-3 14-2/7-5/4-1 12-3/8-5/3-2 13-2/5-7/7-0 16-2/7-4/4-0 11-5/6-5/3-2

Conference ACC SEC B10 B12 B10 BE Amer SEC


Conf Record 17-3 17-3 16-5 15-5 15-7 16-5 16-4 10-9
Conf Champ: Y/N NO NO NO NO NO YES YES NO

Ken Pom Rank 1 8 10 23 12 26 32 44


RPI 3 6 16 18 26 14 15 65
SOS 24 32 17 30 23 18 59 67
Off Efficiency 2 3 5 102 52 16 46 33
Def Efficiency 5 34 32 4 3 73 28 65
Ken Pom Raw
Off 123.6 122.5 121.1 108 110.8 117 111.6 112.8
Def 87.9 95.5 95 87.7 87.1 98.2 94.5 97.7
TEMPO 353 155 276 342 332 333 338 129
Team: FG % 47.8% 49.5% 44.6% 43.1% 45.3% 43.9% 43.2% 45.9%
EFG % Offense 18 20 86 231 132 62 256 74
EFG % Defense 4 35 118 53 10 139 54 165
Turnover % Offense 14 25 26 96 8 69 29 151
Turnover % Defense 227 188 110 14 262 203 53 45
FT % 258 175 278 246 308 108 48 220
3pt fg % 40.9% 36.2% 36.4% 33.6% 36.6% 35.3% 35.0% 35.8%
3 POINT RATE 38.6% 31.8% 44.5% 38.2% 34.1% 53.5% 33.1% 39.5%
PPG 71.8 81.7 76.2 65.8 69.1 74.5 71.7 75.4
Opp PPG 55.1 69.5 66.8 59.2 61.4 67.1 62.2 70.4

Rebounding Margin PG 5 3.2 5.2 1 -0.3 2.7 5.2 1.5

Coaches Prev NCAA App 8 23 11 12 2 15 10 5


FF Trips 0 1 0 1 0 3 0 0
City,State of Campus Charlottesville, VA Knoxville, TN W Lafayette, IN Manhattan, KS Madison, WI Villanova, PA Cincinnati, OH Oxford, MS
Distance to 64/32 362 miles 358 miles 853 miles 1766 miles 2121 miles 217 miles 106 miles 543 miles
Distance to 16/8 493 miles 245 miles 186 miles 633 miles 451 miles 665 miles 102 miles 892 miles
Distance to Final Four 1,150 miles 953 miles 535 miles 556 miles 272 miles 1,158 miles 707 miles 912 miles

ATS Record 23-9 17-15- 1 17-14- 1 19-13-1 16-16-1 20-14 14-20 23-9
Conference ATS Record 14-6 11-10 11-9- 1 14-5- 1 10-11- 1 12-9 7-14 12-7
O/U record 16-16 19-14 17-15 13-20 13-18- 1 12-19- 2 16-17- 1 13-19
9 SEED 10 SEED 11 SEED 12 SEED 13 SEED 14 SEED 15 SEED 16 SEED

Oklahoma Iowa St. Mary's Oregon UC Irvine Old Dominion Colgate Gardner Webb

Play at slow tempo


Oregon is on fire, (263), good OFF Eff
Defense is elite, 23rd winning their last 8 (63rd), take good
Elite in OE, 15th in Have won 16 in a row 48th in DE, 14th in 29th in the country in
in DE. 28th overall in Elite OE, 21st in the games. Dana Altman shots- 15th in
the country. Shoot by an average of 14.4 DEFG. Hang their hat Offensive EFG %,
defensive EFG, 21st country. 49th in EFG one of the most country EFG, shoot
the 3 at 36.1% points per game on their defense shoot 37.7% from 3
against 2's underrated coaches 39.1% from 3 (13th),
in the country 53.9% from 2 (46th),
and 74.3% from FT

Play extremely slow


and do not let In their last 8 wins, Number 1 defense in
Tyler Cook is legit Have wins over VCU
opposing teams giving up an average the country inside If Ivanauskas and
inside, averages 15 and Syracuse. Their
Have good wins over shoot a lot of 3 of 54.25 PPG. High the 3 point arc, Rayman get hot - I hear Boiling Springs,
PPG and 8 boards. coach Jeff Jones is
3 things to like Wofford, Florida,
Great compliment to
pointers (opposing level defensive team, teams shooting
one to root for as he
watch out- each NC is nice this time of
Texas & Kansas teams score 25.1% of 18th in DE, 25th in 40.6% from 2. Only shoot 43% from 3 year
their outside has been battling
their points from 3, DEFG and 50th in allow teams to shoot ball
shooters prostate cancer
343rd). Good recipe forcing turnovers 3's a third of the time
for an upset

Because of the good Have seen Virginia


Lon Kruger is
Limit turnovers on Beat Texas A&M & shots and the 3's - lose this game
overrated. May get
the offensive side, St. Mary's on the 32nd in the country they'll score it if before... which
by Ole Miss, but has 74.5% from the FT Defend the 3 really
17.1% which is good road, also a win over with a 5.1 someone sleeps on means a confidence
hands full with line well, 10th in the land
for 75th in the Montana. Match up rebounding margin them. 75+ points boost or a dose of
Virginia and Tony
country well with K State every game but 1 reality that it can't
Bennett
since 2/4 happen twice

Yea they just beat The Pac 12 is a


In a freefall, lost 6 of
Gonzaga but they complete joke.
Not a good offensive their last 8. Fran 216th in OE, 302nd in
also lost to them by Outside of a win Haven't played a soul Turn it over a ton -
team. 174th or worse McCaffery is a OEFG, shoot 44.5%
14 and 48. Yes, 48 against Syracuse back since 12/21 when 19.3% of possessions- THEY
in all facets of psychopath. Not sure from 2 (340th in the
points. Pepperdine & in November, Ducks they lost to Butler 232nd in the country
shooting if that's a dislike or NCAA)
Harvard their bad best W is against
like
losses Washington

Play extremely slow


(328 in tempo) and
3 things to Poor defensive team.
aren't a very efficient
Below average to
Lost to West Virginia 115th in DE, 209th in 185th in the country 66% from the FT line, bad defensive
DISLIKE twice defensive EFG, 298th in turnover margin
offense (108 OE0. 125th in OE
324th overall efficency of 202nd in
PLAY
Tough for them to
against 2 pointers the country
claw back in a large
deficit

Outside of just Shoot 36th % from 3 310th in the country


219th in the country
beating Gonzaga in (95th in country), and in scoring, 66.8 PPG. 1st NCAA Tourney
in PPG at 71.2.
Hasn't been to the their championship, 251st in the country 50.3% from 2 (181st) Going to be tough to appearance for
Oklahoma State the VIRGINIA
Sweet 16 in 20 years next best win is in scoring in country. Lastly- hang with any teams coach, and every
only offense worse
against New Mexico just 70% as a team that score the ball player
than OU in the Big 12
State back on 11/14 from the line efficiently
1 SEED 2 SEED 3 SEED 4 SEED 5 SEED 6 SEED 7 SEED 8 SEED
GONZAGA MICHIGAN TEXAS TECH FLORIDA ST. MARQUETTE BUFFALO NEVADA SYRACUSE

W-L 30-3 28-6 26-6 27-7 24-9 31-3 29-4 20-13


W-L Top 25 1-2 3-3 3-4 6-4 4-1 0-0 0-0 2-7
W-L 26-50 3-1 6-2 7-1 5-1 1-1 1-1 1-1 1-2
W-L 51-100 9-0 10-0 6-0 3-0 10-7 3-0 7-0 4-3
W-L Last 10 GAMES 9-1 6-4 9-1 8-2 5-5 10-0 7-3 4-6
Home/ Away/Neutral 17-0/9-1/4-2 17-1/7-4/4-1 17-1/6-3/3-2 15-1/6-4/6-2 16-3/6-4/2-2 13-0/12-3/5-0 15-0/9-3/5-1 13-6/6-4/1-3

Conference WCC B10 B12 ACC BE MAC MWC ACC


Conf Record (Place) 17-1 17-5 14-5 15-6 13-7 19-2 16-4 11-9
Conf Champ: Y/N NO NO NO NO NO YES NO NO

Ken Pom Rank 2 5 9 14 27 22 25 35


RPI 7 11 17 12 30 9 19 38
SOS 56 40 54 13 38 79 111 8
Off Efficiency 1 18 36 31 23 19 26 61
Def Efficiency 16 2 1 9 35 29 33 24
Ken Pom Raw
Off 125.1 115.5 112.7 113 114.2 114.9 114 110.2
Def 92.3 86.1 85.9 90.4 95.7 94.6 95.1 93.9
TEMPO 70 320 226 135 116 9 88 251
Team: FG % 53.2% 45.0% 47.2% 44.3% 45.9% 46.0% 46.6% 42.4%
EFG % Offense 1 111 54 169 46 63 45 236
EFG % Defense 8 7 2 33 16 32 41 37
Turnover % Offense 10 3 148 225 240 19 7 169
Turnover % Defense 146 182 11 71 298 63 126 10
FT % 91 311 171 80 93 207 20 73
3pt fg % 36.5% 35.0% 36.8% 33.6% 39.3% 33.6% 35.1% 33.0%
3 POINT RATE 35.3% 40.2% 35.5% 38.3% 41.7% 43.9% 42.7% 42.8%
PPG 88.8 70.4 73.1 74.9 77.7 84.8 80.7 69.7
Opp PPG 65.1 58.6 59.3 67.1 69.1 71 66.7 65.7

Rebounding Margin per game 6.1 0.2 1.9 4.7 4.3 3.6 2.4 -2.3

Coaches Prev NCAA App 19 12 2 9 1 2 2 33


FF Trips 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 5
City,State of Campus Spokane, WA Ann Arbor, MI Lubbock, TX Tallahasse, FL Milwaukee, WI Buffalo, NY Reno, NV Syracuse, NY
Distance to 64/32 719 miles 558 miles 453 miles 1203 miles 1440 miles 1136 miles 1716 miles 2061 miles
Distance to 16/8 1,224 miles 2236 miles 1100 miles 2,240 miles 2,052 miles 2529 miles 489 miles 2,674 miles
Distance to Final Four 1,381 miles 648 miles 1,134 miles 1,377 miles 337 miles 941 miles 1,746 miles 1,086 miles

ATS Record 21-12 19-15 15-16-1 16-17-1 19-14 18-14- 1 17-14- 1 19-14
Conference ATS Record 10-8 15-8 10-8- 1 11-10 11-9 10-11 10-10 13-7
O/U record 16-17 13-20 15-16 14-18- 2 12-18- 2 16-16 13-19 14-19
9 SEED 10 SEED 11 SEED 11 SEED 12 SEED 13 SEED 14 SEED 15 SEED 16 SEED 16 SEED

Baylor Florida Arizona State St.John's Murray State Vermont Northern KY Montana FDU P.VIEW

Ja Morant. If you Take really good


High percentages of
28th in OE. Scott Luguentz Dort is a don't know his name, Anthony Lamb is shots. 6th in the
blocks and steals, Shoot the ball at a Have some athletic,
Drew has done a special player. Pac 12 you will right away. good, averages over country in effective
Force a ton of TO's, 11th in blocks and high clip, 23rd in EFG, and jacked big guys - Can get a lot of steals
great job with the freshman of the year. Top 5 draft pick 21 PPG. Can lead this FG %, shoot 38.1%
16th in the country 16th in steals, 44th 78th from 3, and speciifcally Halloway (14 in the country)
hand he has been Averaged 16.1 PPG, averaging 24.6 points team. Ernie Duncan from 3 (27th in
overall in turnover % 23rd from 2 and Williams
dealt this season raw talent and 10 assists per shoots 42.5% from 3 country), 56.3% from
defensively
game 2pt (13th)

Shamorie Ponds can


take over a game at Good effencies on Play at a fast tempo ,
Have 7 wins against Defend the 3 point Made Tourney last
14th in DE, get after any point. Will go as offense and defense, can make the game
Top 50 teams Bobby Hurley knows line well, allow teams year, and have a
3 things to like (according to
it on the defensive
how to motivate
far as he takes them. 40th in OE & 78th in 75.3% from the stripe
to shoot 31.9% from lineup of 2 seniors
Shoot 40.5% from 3 wacky and run and
end Also, first in the Big DE. Top 5 2 point O gun make Zaga
Kenpom) 3, 49th overall and 2 juniors
East in steals and and Top 4 3pt D uncomfortable
second in assists

24th in the country in


4.3 rebounding
Have beaten LSU Effective FG % on Drew McDonald, 6'8" Balanced scoring
Don't turn the ball margin, 51st in the Could win their play
Number 2 offensive twice this season, offense, 21st on and can stretch the attack - Rorie and Maybe Gonzaga will
50th overall on the over, 6th in the country. Especially in game and get to
rebounding team in have shown they can defense. 2 big floor. Shoots 40% Pridgett - 15 ppg , get sick and not show
offensive glass nation in TO % on good on the spend a few days in
the country play with big schools they played from 3 and averages Oguine - 13 ppg, up
offense defensive boards, Sunny California
competiiton in Bama & Auburn 19 PPG Manuel - 8 ppg
2nd in the land
were close games

Best win of the year


Hate their draw with They are HORRIBLE
Been hampered with is them beating 1 win in the Top 100.
Nevada. Total Their opponents in on the glass. 342nd Have played 2 top 50 Coach is a mental Started the year 1-11
injuries all year, Belmont (53rd No signature win. Their first round
opposite styles of the Pac 12 shot 48% on the offensive teams this year, lost patient. Got a tech in and didn't exactly
Makai Mason & King overall team Best W is against matchup will be the
play, Florida plays to against them and the boards, 246th both. Best W's are the conference title play primetime
McClure have been according to Northeastern best team they play
a crawl and Nevada Pac 12 is PUTRID defensively. -5.8 against Wright State game opponents
banged up recently Kenpom) in the OVC by miles
runs rebounding margin
championship game.

Don't shoot a ton of


Jamar Akoh (15 ppg
3's. If they get down
Don't shoot the ball and 9 rpg ) Senior -
3 things to Reeling of late, lost 4 well from the field,
big early, tough
Do not defend the 3 been out since 2/9 .
In this play in game
67.1 % from the free sledding on a 67% from the FT line, for a reason. NEC
DISLIKE in a row, including a 211th in EFG, 222nd
throw line
111th in DE
comeback. 28.3% of
point line well, 226th
302nd in America
They are playing
historically a bottom
struggle from 3
home loss to OKST in 3 point % and in the country great, but will miss
their total points feeder 16 seed.
200th from 2 him in 1st round for
come from 3, 264th
sure
in the land

Shoot a ton of 3's ... Sleep walk through a Teams seem get to
43.4 % of all attempts Lost by 21 to lot of games. Lost to Have a few bad L's: the line fairly easy on
178th in the country Florida State's D will GONZAGA too GONZAGA too
are from 3 (3pt rate). Washington State Depaul twice, Xavier If Morant is off, they Eastern KY, Oakland, them. Will be a huge
in scoring - only 71 be a real problem for talented , too good talented , too good
Yet they don't shoot who is ranked 210th twice, Providence are dead in the water IUPUI, Ill-Chi. & Clev. problem vs faster
PPG them .... Blowout .... Blowout
it well - 33% (222nd according to Kenpom twice, and State gaurds, and bigger
in the country) Gerogetown post players
1 SEED 2 SEED 3 SEED 4 SEED 5 SEED 6 SEED 7 SEED 8 SEED
NORTH CAROLINA KENTUCKY HOUSTON KANSAS AUBURN IOWA ST. WOFFORD UTAH ST.

W-L 27-6 27-6 31-3 25-9 26-9 23-11 29-4 28-6


W-L Top 25 8-5 8-4 3-0 6-5 2-5 5-3 0-3 1-2
W-L 26-50 4-1 3-0 4-1 8-2 4-3 5-4 2-1 1-0
W-L 51-100 3-0 6-2 13-1 5-1 10-1 3-3 7-0 4-3
W-L Last 10 GAMES 8-2 7-3 8-2 7-3 10-0 5-5 10-0 10-0
Home/ Away/Neutral 14-2/11-1/2-3 17-1/8-2/2-3 19-1/11-1/1-1 17-0/3-8/5-1 14-2/4-6/6-1 12-4/5-6/6-1 12-1/11-3/3-0 13-1/9-4/5-1

Conference ACC SEC Amer B12 SEC B12 SC MWC


Conf Record 17-3 16-4 18-2 14-7 14-7 12-9 21-0 18-3
Conf Champ: Y/N NO NO NO NO YES YES YES YES

Ken Pom Rank 6 7 15 20 13 16 19 34


RPI 4 8 5 2 21 32 20 28
SOS 3 9 53 1 27 16 105 100
Off Efficiency 7 13 24 34 8 9 12 32
Def Efficiency 10 12 13 15 45 59 63 47
Ken Pom Raw
Off 119.9 118.2 114.1 112.7 119.6 119 118.4 113
Def 90.7 90.8 91.7 92 96.2 97.1 97.6 96.3
TEMPO 5 265 247 64 166 161 275 151
Team: FG % 46.4% 47.8% 44.4% 46.2% 44.7% 47.7% 48.8% 47.5%
EFG % Offense 78 65 107 100 42 25 4 41
EFG % Defense 63 27 1 46 220 74 153 19
Turnover % Offense 74 180 63 195 106 33 34 126
Turnover % Defense 172 178 195 174 1 154 122 258
FT % 242 9 216 189 240 257 303 77
3pt fg % 36.5% 36.4% 35.9% 35.0% 38.1% 36.5% 41.6% 35.7%
3 POINT RATE 35.9% 29.8% 42.9% 35.0% 49.6% 39.6% 43.5% 38.0%

PPG 86.1 76.7 75.6 75.4 78.9 77.4 81.2 79.1


Opp PPG 72.9 65.4 61.2 70.1 68.6 68.3 67.5 67.1

Rebounding Margin per game 9.7 8.9 7.3 2.4 -1.3 0.7 5.2 8.9

Coaches Prev NCAA App 28 17 ( 2 others vacated) 15 20 9 3 4 0


FF Trips 9 4 ( 2 others vacated) 1 3 0 0 0 0
City,State of Campus Chapel Hill, NC Lexington, KY Houston, TX Lawrence, KS Auburn, AL Ames, IA Spartanburg, SC Logan, UT
Distance to 64/32 453 miles 726 miles 494 miles 1073 miles 1876 miles 496 miles 377 miles 1710 miles
Distance to 16/8 1,044 miles 584 miles 744 miles 42 miles 854 miles 228 miles 905 miles 1,106 miles
Distance to Final Four 1,197 miles 784 miles 1,177 miles 475 miles 1,182 miles 214 miles 1,124 miles 1,204 miles

ATS record 21-9-3 17-16 21-12-1 15-18-1 20-13-1 18-14-2 19-11 18-15
Conference ATS Record 14-6 10-10 13-8 9-11- 1 14-8 11-10 15-6 10-11
O/U record 15-18 12-21 14-19-1 21-12-1 18-16 17-16 16-14 17-16
9 SEED 10 SEED 11 SEED 12 SEED 13 SEED 14 SEED 15 SEED 16 SEED

Washington Seton Hall Ohio State New Mexico St. Northeastern Georgia State AB Christian Iona

Matisse Thybulle is Kaleb Wesson is


Have God on their
their anchor, DPOY in what makes Ohio Overall a very Tim Cluess is one of
Hot at the right time - Ron Hunter... if he side... can't
the Pac 12. When he Myles Powell is a State go. He was efficient offense. 37 the underrated
since Jan 1st- are 16- can stay on his chair downplay that.
was on the floor, horse, averages 22.9 suspended for the in OE, number 2 in coaches in the
3. Bonus - 47TH best has already pulled off Especially against a
Washington forced PPG. Can take over at last 3 games of the the country shooting country. May be
Offensive Efficency in an upset once cheater like Calipari.
turnovers on 25% of any point regular season and the ball inside the arc looking at a bigger
the country before. "Thou shalt not steal
their opponents you guessed it, they at 56.6% job soon enough
"- Commandment # 8
possesions went 0-3

Seton Hall has been Want good shots ?


Not afraid of a
one of the best Have won 19 games They got em -
challenge. Won vs Cause a ton of Shoot at high %'s.
20th in DE, 34th in teams in the country Chris Holtmann is a in a row, haven't lost Efefctive FG% - 5th in
Alabama this year. turnovers as a PLAY VERY FAST .
defensinve EFG and of late. Yes, they are fantastic coach. since 1/3. Auburn country, shoot 38.8%
Has played Liberty, defense. 23.4 % of Tempo of 46th in
3 things to like 4th in the country in 7-5 in their last 12 Always has his teams can't defend the 3, from 3 (14th), 2pt -
Montana, K State, possessions (8th best country. May cause
defensive turnover % but those 5 losses ready to play NMST shoots a ton of 56.4% (11th), and
Creighton, and in the country) matchup problems
have come by an them (see below) shoot 75.1% from the
Georgia
average of 3.8 PPG Free Throw Line

Balanaced scoring
Houston wants to
lineup - Puscia 17.8, 4 straight NCAA
Battled with Number 5 in the play slow (267th in
They're disruptive Roland-14.7, Brace- Tournaments. Kids
Gonzaga, VT & country in tempo) . G'St wants
defensively and may 10. Gresham- 9.8. Shoot 38.3% from 3. understand the
Minnesota earlier in Strong on the rebounding margin at to play fast ( 67th).
be able to get BONUS- Here are Cheating Calipari has showcase , timing
the season. Their defensive end, 27th +9. Extremely deep, They can either-
Wofford out of their what these guys said on ESPN he's etc. Can score a ton
defense gives them a in DE, 58th in DEFG well balanced team. dictate tempo, or in a
game in the first shoot from 3- Puscia- concerned about it of points. Of all 14-
legit shot to get to #1 in the country in short game use their
round 40.1 %, Roland- 15-16's this is one to
the Sweet 16 bench minutes 38.1% from 3 to stun
40.8%, Brace- 41/5% , consider
the Cougs
and Gresham- 39.3%

Horrific on both ends


Not an efficient Shoot a ton of 3's, of the floor
Resume sucks. Best One dimensional
offensive team. 20th in the country in rebounding - grab
win is against Oregon offense with Wesson. Teams get good shots
210th in EFG, 32.4 3 point attempts but just 23.3% of Kentucky too big, too Give up a ton of
who they just let get If he is not right, against them - allow
from 3 point range they shoot at a 34.1% rebounds (316th), fast, too athletic points
in the tourney via the watch out for a 52.1% from 2pt
which is 272nd in the clip which is 189th and allow opppsing
Pac 12 Title game torching
country overall teams to grab 33.6%
of rebounds

Have I mentioned
Not a deep team at
that the Pac 12 is pile 6'9 Frosh Jalone
3 things to of garbage? 119th in
all. 310th in bench
Horrific at getting Shoot just 65.6 % Friday has been out
minutes. Foul trouble 267th in the NCAA in 67.3 from the FT line, Fast tempo leads to
DISLIKE OE, turn the ball over
and a long Big East PPG, averaging 69.3 293rd overall
offensive rebounds from the Free Throw for over a month, via
opposition layup drill
a ton, terrible -328th in the country Line suspension. Was
run could have them
rebounding team averaging 13 and 5.
gassed
defensively

Size troubles... every Likely a 16 seed,


Utah State will be a
It's been a while key contributor on likely the play in
tough matchup and a The Buckeyes were 0- Played Texas Tech
since the Pirates Best win is probably possession stats game. Huge task to
great first round 9 against the Top 5 Don't block any shots and lost 82-48 earlier
have made it out of Utah Valley according to KenPom pull the upset after
game. Not the best teams in the Big Ten this year.
the first weekend. is 6'6 (1 guy) and having already
draw for the Huskies
under played a game.
CIRCLE OF TRUST
2019 NCAA WORD DOC SHEET

KENPOM EFF. TO PREDICT FINAL 4, and ELITE 8

Ken Pomeroy, or as I call him “God,” is a stats guru. He’s devoted 15


years to advanced stats, most notably adjusted offensive and
adjusted defensive efficiency. There was a writer by the name of Luke
Winn (formerly of Sports Illustrated) who turned me on to how teams
with BOTH high Offensive and Defensive Efficiencies result in
tournament success. Now notice how I said both. Balanced teams
seem to do well.

The math is pretty simple -

Teams with Top 25 Adj. Offensive Eff. AND Top 25 Adjusted Defensive
Eff., = Final 4 / Title Contenders

Teams with Top 40 Adj. Offensive Eff AND Top 40 Adj. Defensive Eff. =
Elite 8 / Final 4 type teams

Teams with Top 75 Adj Offensive Eff AND Top 75 Adj. Defensive Eff =
Sweet 16 / & in rare cases - Elite 8/ Final 4

Here are teams with both TOP 25 OE and DE (OE/DE) :

Virginia (2,5) Zaga (1,16), Duke (6,6),


Michigan State (4,8) Michigan (18,2), UNC (7,10),
Kentucky (13,12) VT (11,25), Houston (24,13)
Here are teams with both Top 40 OE and DE (OE/DE) :

Tennessee (3,34), Purdue (5,32), Buffalo (19,29), Marquette (23,35),


Nevada (26,33), Maryland (27,22),
L/Ville (29,17), FSU (31,9),
Kansas (34,15), Texas Tech (36,1)

Teams with Both Top 75 OE and DE :

Cincy, Wisconsin, Minnesota, UCF, Florida, Syracuse, Oklahoma,


Seton Hall, Ohio State

NFW LIST

Now, just as we discussed teams who excel on both sides of the floor,
I have devoted time to find teams who don’t have an exceptional
offense OR an exceptional defense.
In the tournament, teams can use 1 thing to ride a hot wave- think
Shaka Smart’s great Defense, or Kevin Pittsnogle’s great offense back
in the day.

These teams do neither. They are so-so on both sides of the ball,
which leaves them susceptible to upsets in the Big Dance.

Since 2003, 194 Teams ​seeded 1-9​ with :


-an Adjusted Offensive Efficiency BELOW 115.0
AND
-an Adjusted Defensive Efficiency ABOVE 90.0

Have made the tournament. As you can see about 85% of those teams
have exited in the first weekend, and a total of 3 have made the Final
Four. I call this the NFW LIst because if a team appears on here,
there’s “no freaking way” they make the Final Four.

*** I’m adjusting the list this year to BELOW 115.0 AND ABOVE 92.0
***

I am primarily doing this after noticing that very few teams in the
country are below 90.0 in raw Defensive Efficiency. In fact 92.0 still
gets you at the 15th best defense in the country. For example-
Houston is an elite team having the 24th best offense and 13th best
defense in the country but under the old rule would be an NFW team.
Same goes for Florida State . Now - I am very leery of Houston and
Florida State because they fit the old profile of below 115, above 90-
but because they rank high I’ve decided to adjust the list to
BELOW 115.0 AND ABOVE 92.0

This Year’s list includes :


6- Buffalo, 5- Marquette, 7- Nevada, 6- Maryland, 9-Baylor, 7- L’Ville
8- Utah St , 8-Ole Miss, 4- Kansas, 7- Cincy, 9-UCF, 8- Cuse, 9-OK
Again, not a perfect science, but there’s huge value in fading these
teams in the tourney- both spread and Money Line.

RED FLAG TEAMS

Now, we’ve talked about teams who do things well, who do things
mediocre. Let’s talk about teams seeded 1-9 who have 1 glaring red
flag in their efficiency.- ie either and OE or a DE outside of 75.

Again, this can be very dangerous- because the #1 rated offense in


the country may be so hot it overcomes it’s crappy 89th ranked
defense. The same way the 3rd best D in the country can lock up for
6 straight games and win ugly games to capture a title.

But, evidence shows you need to be balanced to succeed, rather than


rely on just 1 side of the ball.

Look at the matchups of these teams and see if their style of play can
expose the red flag teams weaknesses.

Here they are :

Kansas State (102nd OE), VCU (172th OE), Washington (119th OE)

LIVE BY THE 3, DIE BY THE 3


From 2001- 2015 , just 2 teams have made the Final 4 with a 3pt rate
higher than 40%.
3pt rate = total 3pt fg attempts / total fg attempts

Then is 2016, half the Final Four was heavily reliant 3pt teams with a
3pt rate over 40% - Oklahoma and of course Villanova.

Last year 3 of the teams in the Final Four (all but Loyola) were above
40% on their three point rate.

So the total is now 7 teams out of 72 teams (9.72%) have had a 3pt
rate above 40%, however the teams in 2016-2018 was 5 which is
41.6%.

I think this should be called the “Steph Effect”. Meaning he’s changed
the game like no other player. Everyone is shooting more 3’s. I saw a
graphic earlier this year that nearly half the country is now above 40%
3pt rate.

I’ve learned that this 3pt rate stat is not as much of a lock as it used to
be, however it’s still worth looking at.

It’s also good to note a team that shoots a ton of three’s and doesn’t
shoot them well (ie- their 3pt percentage).

Here are high seeded teams (1-6) currently above 40% 3pt rate (3pt
fga / total fga) , and their accuracy from deep :

2 - Michigan - 40% 3pt rate , shoot 35.1% from 3pt (133rd in country)
3- Houston- 42.6% 3pt rate , shoot 36.4% from 3pt (tie 77th)
3- Purdue - 44.5% 3pt rate, shoot 36.4% from 3pt (tie 77th)
4- VA Tech - 45% 3pt rate, shoot 39.4% from 3pt (8th in country)
4- Marquette- 41.7% 3pt rate, shoot 39.3% from 3pt (9th in country)
5-Auburn- 49.2% 3pt rate, shoot 38.1% from 3pt (27th in country)
6-Villanova- 53.5% 3pt rate, shoot 35.3% from 3pt ( 121st in country)
6- Buffalo- 43.9% 3pt rate, shoot 33.6 % from 3pt (215th in country)

Who’s Got Balls ?

There’s a few mysterious characters who are Rico Ryders who pop out every now
and then like clockwork. I laugh every time how this group is a mix between the
soldiers in BraveHeart, and the mutants at Table 9. But regardless, I respect how
dedicated everyone is to the craft. None more than the famous “BALL KID” who
came to me a few years back talking about his trends of different ball brands
affecting scoring etc. FYI- The NCAA Tourney uses Wilson Balls during all games.

His handle is : ​https://twitter.com/KevinCarmosino

He recently sent me this :

Rico,

I am going to be tied up with work/travel the next couple weeks so I got a head of things
and compiled a quick excel sheet for you. It has the win/loss ATS and Over/under records
broken down by ball. Last year was an off year – I attribute that to some bad matchups
and expect it to be back to the norm this year. I also took the BPI rankings from like a
week ago and other teams I think have a shot at making the tournament and looked up
what they use for home games.

The games I played over the past three years are all teams that use the Wilson ball and
the over for those games. Even with last year’s disaster those are hitting a combined
55%. A bunch of mid majors use the ball this year like Hofstra, Houston, SD State, Murray
State and even our boys down at Lipscomb – could see some beneficial lines for the first
round.

I will get a break down after the bracket comes out but thought I would get this over to
you now.

Cheers,
As he mentioned- The big trend to look at is Wilson Overs, or Wilson teams
pulling outright upsets per his research. Good to consider while examining your
brackets and bets.

* - The Over Trend applies to any team who uses a Wilson ball during the year- *

Here’s which kind of ball tournament team’s play with during the
regular season. He got as many as he could, will be updating me as
they come in.

To get any inside info on any team you have questions on - hit up Ball
Kid on twitter. But for now- Here’s teams who use Wilson balls during
the year he’s sent me :

Arizona State, Auburn, Belmont, Cincy, Houston, Kansas, Miss. St,


Murray State, St.Mary’s, St.John’s, Temple, Wisconsin, Wofford, UC
Irvine.
Lastly- two matchups involving 2 Wilson teams to keep an eye on are
both play-in games :

Arizona State vs St.John’s , Belmont vs Temple

DELAYED START TIMES


Another wild character/Rico Ryder came to me with this fun little tidbit
that almost seems so obvious when you think about it.
My man Anthony of the M&A Sports Podcast
(​https://twitter.com/masportsradio​) , who’s such a great guy he’s
hosting a golf tourney for Coaches vs Cancer 6/29, Came to me
recently and said he thought about this trend two years ago and
started tracking it last year.

● Games in the 1st and 2nd round that were delayed 15+ minutes.
● The Unders in the 1st half and Game of those games was : 16-4

● Of those games, 7 games were complete sweeps (ie both 1h and


game hit the under)

● Overall - all 2nd games of double headers regardless of start


time were 27-21 when betting 1h and game unders.

Give the guy Anthony a follow and a DM thank you when these cash.
TEMPO MATCHUPS

Really dove into this last year , and the screenshots are buried
somewhere, but really all you have to know is pace of play can affect
the hell out of games, and can result in upsets.

Last year I nailed Marshall over Wichita State because the Herd
wanted to run, and The Shockers wanted to slow it down. The Herd
dictated the pace and it was the difference.

So I wanted to examine it again this year with three thoughts in mind :

● Which games are the fastest tempos ? (good idea on overs)


● Which games are the slowest tempo ? (good idea on unders)
● Which games have the biggest disparity one way or the other ?
( good idea to spot upsets)

Here are those answers :

Fastest tempos :
● UNC (5) vs Iona (45)
● Buffalo (9) vs Zona St (46) or St.John’s (48)
● LSU (66) vs Yale (44)
● Ole Miss (129) vs Oklahoma (112)
● Marquette (116) vs Murray State ( 98)

Slowest tempos :
● Wisconsin (332) vs Oregon (328)
● Nova (333) vs St.Mary’s (347)
● K’State (342) vs UCI (296)
● Syracuse (251) vs Baylor (291)
● Michigan (320) vs Montana (225)
● Kentucky (265) vs AB Christian (254)

Biggest Difference in Styles of Play :


● Duke (18) vs ND State (312)
● Maryland (274) vs Belmont (31)
● Nevada (88) vs Florida (346)
● Cincy (338) vs Iowa (82)
● Kansas (64) vs N’Eastern (252)
● Houston (247) vs Georgia St (67)
● Wofford (275) vs Seton Hall (102)

-Rico Bo$co
MLP (Money Line Parlays)

I went through and looked at key efficiency numbers for Final Four teams through the last 10 years. The red line
represents the average of each number for the last decade. Obviously, the teams listed are from this year’s field. All
numbers were taken from the king, Ken Pomeroy. The “weight” number is based on my own research and the higher
the number, the more this stat is correlated to success in the tournament. Only teams seeded 1-11 were included.
We start with...

Stat:​ Adjusted Offensive Efficiency

10 Year Avg:​ 117.0

Weight:​ 9.01

Teams Above Avg:​ Gonzaga, Virginia, Tennessee, Michigan State, Purdue, Duke,
North Carolina, Auburn, Iowa State, LSU, Virginia Tech, Wofford, Kentucky, Mississippi
State, Iowa, Villanova
Stat:​ Offensive Effective Field Goal Percentage

10 Year Avg:​ 52.5%

Weight:​ 5.72

Teams Above Avg:​ Gonzaga, Wofford, Belmont, Virginia Tech, Michigan State,
Virginia, Tennessee, Iowa State, Mississippi State, Auburn, Utah State, Marquette,
Nevada, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech, Duke, Villanova, Buffalo, Kentucky, Ole Miss, North
Carolina, Purdue, UCF, Iowa
Stat:​ Offensive Three-Point Percentage

10 Year Avg:​ 36.1%

Weight:​ 5.71

Teams Above Avg:​ Wofford, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Marquette, Michigan State, Auburn,
Mississippi State, St. Mary’s, Belmont, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Iowa State, North
Carolina, Kentucky, Purdue, Tennessee, Iowa, St. John’s
Stat:​ Offensive Rebound Percentage

10 Year Avg:​ 34.0%

Weight:​ 3.01

Teams Above Avg:​ Baylor, Cincinnati, LSU, Kentucky, Duke, Purdue, Mississippi State,
Houston, North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland
Stat:​ Offensive Turnover Percentage

10 Year Avg:​ 17.3%

Weight:​ 5.76

Teams Below Avg:​ Michigan, St. John’s, Nevada, Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Virginia, Belmont,
Buffalo, Temple, Purdue, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Wofford, Iowa State, St. Mary’s, Houston,
Villanova, North Carolina, Iowa
Stat:​ Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

10 Year Avg:​ 91.4

Weight:​ 7.49

Teams Below Avg:​ Michigan, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, Kansas State, Virginia, Duke, VCU,
Michigan State, Florida State, North Carolina, Kentucky
Stat:​ Defensive Possession Length

10 Year Avg:​ 18.4

Weight:​ 3.31

Teams Above Avg:​ Gonzaga, Florida, Virginia, Virginia Tech, VCU, Washington, Auburn,
Michigan, Purdue, Kansas State, Michigan State, Cincinnati, Iowa State
Stat:​ Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage

10 Year Avg:​ 46.0%

Weight:​ 6.14

Teams Below Avg:​ Houston, Texas Tech, VCU, Virginia, Michigan State, Michigan, Gonzaga,
Duke, Wisconsin, UCF, Marquette, Maryland
Stat:​ Defensive Three-Point Percentage

10 Year Avg:​ 32.2%

Weight:​ 3.30

Teams Below Avg:​ Virginia, VCU, Houston, Michigan, Duke, Buffalo, Texas Tech, Wisconsin,
Kansas State, UCF, Louisville, Michigan State, St. Mary’s, Marquette, Maryland, Florida,
Syracuse
Stat:​ Block Percentage

10 Year Avg:​ 11.6%

Weight:​ 4.35

Teams Above Avg:​ Syracuse, Duke, Washington, Auburn, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Cincinnati,
Kentucky, Michigan State, Baylor, Houston, Gonzaga, Mississippi State, Maryland, Purdue,
Iowa State, Florida State, UCF, Utah State, Virginia, VCU, LSU
Stat:​ Steal Percentage

10 Year Avg:​ 10.1%

Weight:​ 4.66

Teams Above Avg:​ Washington, Auburn, Duke, LSU, Syracuse, Temple, St. John’s,
Mississippi State, Kansas State, VCU, Florida, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, Ole Miss, Virginia Tech,
Iowa State
Here’s the final tally. Each column is worth its weight. It’s nothing incredibly groundbreaking, but
there are a few teams that may seem out of place. Obviously Iowa State is near the top, which
doesn’t really fall in line with the 6 seed they were pegged with. I took them at 66-1 back in early
February mainly based on some of these numbers. That looked like a waste of money for a few
weeks, but then they go and win the Big 12 Tournament.

Probably the other most notable thing is Kansas putting up a goose egg. The Jayhawks may not
make it out of the first round.
TSI
Spread Investor
Lines that stand out in the opening round:

Oregon -1.5 v​ s Wisconsin: Oregon is on an 8-0 SU and ATS run and they’ve made an amazing
comeback to get themselves into the tournament. Wisconsin is very reliant on Happ for scoring
and Oregon has the length to defend Happ. Plus this game is in San Jose, which gives Oregon
a major travel advantage.

Cincinnati -3.5​ vs Iowa in Columbus. Cincinnati is off a huge win vs Houston and Cumberland
can take over a game. Iowa’s defense is terrible and they haven’t played well down the stretch.

St. Mary’s +5.5​ vs Villanova, 130. St. Mary’s just beat Gonzaga and held them to 47 points.
Gonzaga beat Duke. Villanova didn’t cover their last 2 games in the Big East tournament
against Seton Hall and Xavier, and they’re on a 3-6 ATS run. St. Mary’s also lost to LSU by just
4. This team is dangerous and they really defend and slow you down.

New Mexico St ​is +7 vs Auburn. A lot of people are going to jump on Auburn because of their
run in the SEC tournament but this was their first SEC championship since 1985 and it was a
very emotional win. If they don’t come out with the same energy New Mexico St can really
threaten them. They’re on a 19 game win streak, lost to Kansas earlier this year by 3, they have
size, depth and really defend well. They’re 8th in the country in offensive efficiency and 1st in
offensive rebounding. Auburn has to travel 1800 miles to Salt Lake City for this game that starts
at 1:20 Thursday.

Arizona St -1.5​ should beat St. John’s in the first four. Arizona St. has been a much more
consistent team than St. John’s and the Johnnies are coming off getting blown out vs Marquette
in the Big East tournament.

Utah St -2.5​ vs Washington. Washington just lost to Oregon and Utah St plays really good
defense and has a lot of size. They beat Nevada two weeks ago and beat San Diego St twice
this year, who also beat Nevada. They beat St. Mary’s this year by 17 and lost to Houston by
10. They’re a great passing team and their PG Sam Merrill is a playmaker and averages 21.2
ppg.

Belmont​ can make a run. They’re the number 1 team in the country in assists and have scored
83 points or more in 6 of their last 7. They’re -3 vs Temple, would play Maryland if they win who
is struggling, and would get the winner of Yale and LSU who is without their head coach.
Belmont beat Murray St 92-74 on 1/19 and lost at Purdue by 11.
Old Dominion +13 v​ s Purdue - they play really good defense and are on a 9-1 Under run. They
held their last 3 opponents to 57 ppg and they beat VCU earlier this year 62-52. Head Coach
Jeff Jones is battling prostate cancer and you could never underestimate the power of a team
riding the emotional wave of their coach.

Yale +8 vs LSU - Yale is a really good passing team and shoots the ball well. Naz Reid can take
over later in this game but he usually doesn’t take over games until the second half. LSU will be
without their head coach.

Notes:

UC Irvine is on a 9-1-1 ATS run their last 11.

Liberty shoots the three really well but don’t have any wins against top 50 competition this
season.

Nevada is 1-7 ATS their last 8 and Florida is 7-3 ATS their last 10. Nevada has been a bad first
half team and good second half team lately and betting this game live might be the better move.

Wofford is on an 11-1 ATS run. Fletcher McGee is an unbelievable scorer and they have a big
man in Cam Jackson who can really play. They have a lot of good guards. They lay -2.5 vs
Seton Hall who has played really well lately also and have one of the best players in the country
in Myles Powell. This is likely a game I’m passing that I’ll just enjoy the entertainment.

Murray State is on a 7-3 ATS run

Northeastern is on a 6-0-1 ATS run but they don’t have any wins vs top 50 competition this
season.

Trends by seed:

#8 vs #9: the dog in this game is 24-12-4 ATS the last 10 years

#11 seeds are on a 25-15 ATS run in the first round over the last 10 years. Loyola Chicago and
Syracuse were both 11 seeds last year.

#14 seeds: 10-5 ATS the last 5 years when +12 or more
#12 seeds are on a 24-14-2 ATS run the last 10 years

QUESTION AND ANSWERS


We’ve said it 100 times before we take a huge amount of pride in this sheet
and providing info, always making it better etc. So rolling out a new feature
this year is a quick Q and A portion based off the brackets. As always- feel
free to reach out for any questions etc you may have.

Here’s our handles and a key when looking at the answers :

@return_of_rb ​ Answer Key - RB


@spreadinvestor​ - Answer Key - TSI
@moneylineparlays​ - Answer Key - MLP
@THold42​ - Answer Key - HOLD

Without further ado …. Here we go

● What’s your favorite opening spread at first glance ?

RB- If your asking for a total - that’s easy - Iona UNC Over 166. The fact
the Duke over vs Iona didn’t hit last year was a crime. This one gets me the
redemption. Spread wise… how about Old Dominion catching 12 versus
Purdue ? Purdue shoots a ton of three’s - which can alway be a problem.
But these teams match up really well in terms of tempo - Purdue 276th,
ODU 325. ODU plays great defense (48th D.Eff) and have a rebounding
margin of +5 per game. - this number seems huge.

TSI - St. Mary’s +5.5 vs Villanova


MLP- I always gravitate towards the dogs in Round 1 and it’s hard to pick
just one without much research. NMSU +7, Northeastern +8, Liberty +7,
and Irvine +5.5 all seem like opportunities. Yale +7.5 also stands out with
all of LSU’s problems right now.

HOLD- UC Irvine +5.5. Irvine has the number 1 defense in the country
when it comes to 2 pointers, only allowing teams to shoot 40.6% from
inside the arc. Kansas State is 225th in the country shooting from 2.
Overall, K State is not a great offensive team. 102nd in OE, 231st in
Offensive EFG, 33.6% from 3 and a bismal 66.4% from the free throw line.
K State is very good defensively as well but think we get a rock fight and
Irvine hangs in all game.

● What’s your first round upset that makes the most sense ?

RB- Seems too cliche to say Murray State now that every dweeb in an
office knows about Ja Morant , but the Howard injury should worry
Marquette backers. We answered these separately so I assume UC Irvine
is taken. If they are - I love Belmont vs Maryland who’s remarkably
mediocre.

TSI - New Mexico St over Auburn because Auburn’s riding an emotional


high and they have to travel 1800 miles to Utah for this game that starts
early on Thursday. New Mexico is a really good team and can catch
Auburn come out a little flat.

MLP- Probably Northeastern. The Huskies have been on a tear for a while
now, they’ve got a legit guy in Vasa Pusica, Kansas is kind of messy, and
it’s just got that “late Thursday night” craziness feel to it. The Jayhawks
finally have to travel and we’ll see if they have enough to handle it.
HOLD- I would have to say Liberty at first glance. Liberty shoots the 3
pointer at a high clip of 37.8%, good for 35th in the country. Miss. State
can’t defend the 3 well, 224th in the country. Liberty shoots the ball well
from all over the floor and MSST isn’t a team that overly impresses me.

● Which dark horse is your pick to win each region ?

RB- Virginia Tech won/t be afraid of Duke , Buzz is a great coach- they
make sense in the East. Nevada in the West just because I still say they
are a matchup nightmare for people. Without crazy deep research I’ll go
way deep on a dark horse here and say UC Irvine. In a bracket with either
Wiscy or Oregon (both slow, then likely Virginia)- their D and slow play is
exactly what teams will be playing against them right up until the regional
final vs Tenn. Midwest- take your pick on Utah St, Wofford, or Seton Hall.

TSI - New Mexico St, Belmont, St. Mary’s, Texas Tech.

MLP- I’ll probably change my mind by Thursday after more research, but
off the top I like Buffalo in the West, Iowa State in the Midwest, Cincinnati in
the South, and Virginia Tech in the East.

HOLD- Gun to my head right after the bracket release, Virginia Tech in the
East, Marquette in the West (if Howard is fully healthy), Villanova in the
South and Iowa State in the Midwest.

● Which team do you think the general public is too in love with ?

RB- Is it crazy to say Duke ? And I’m a Duke fan. Now don’t get me wrong -
I think they are fantastically talented. But I worry a lot about their shooting.
Also in terms of value- they whole world will be picking them to win it all,
makes sense to go contrarian on your brackets in the final four/ final game.
TSI - Liberty. They have no big wins this year and a lot of people are
picking them to beat a talented Mississippi St team.

MLP- I don’t really know who the public is in love with, but based on futures
odds I guess Gonzaga? They’re only 5-1 to win it all. They’re a really good
team, but people may point to that Duke win earlier this year as a reason to
believe in them. It was a big win, but I felt like it was a game that they
survived due to a young team’s inability to execute early in the season
more than anything. They lost to Tennessee on a neutral on the West
Coast and gave up a 103 burger to the Tar Heels. Otherwise they haven’t
played great teams and lost the WCC title. My biggest concern with them is
that they don’t really shoot it well. If they play other talented bigs that can
limit Clarke and Rui, I don’t trust Perkins to carry them.

HOLD- Michigan. Not sure if the public is in love with them but I would
imagine so after they just got a 2 seed and had a good weekend in the Big
10 Tourney. Their path is very tough with the likes of Nevada/Florida,
Buffalo and Texas Tech. Their offense can leave a lot to be desired at
some points.

● Which team do you think is under the radar based off the public ?

RB- Houston lost a heartbreaker to Michigan last year, have a coach with
tourney experience, and some real playmakers. The Kentucky draw sucks
for them, but I think they can raise eyebrows. Based on the draw - I think
Texas Tech playing hellacious defense on people in a pod where they can
disrupt Buffalo, then advance to a Michigan team who’s struggled scoring -
I think that’s a good draw + most people won’t know too much about them.

TSI - Texas Tech. They’re in Michigan’s region and Michigan will always
get more attention. Tech has the defense to make a run.
MLP- Houston. They’re not from a prestigious conference and they just lost
when everyone was paying attention. But they’ve beat LSU, Utah State,
and Oregon, and they dominated the AAC. People won’t realize that the
Cougars were pretty banged up in that championship game Sunday with
Cincinnati. My only problem with them here is that they’re in the same pod
as Iowa State and the Cyclones were probably my #2 choice here.

HOLD- Tennessee at +1800 to win the title is appealing in my eyes. Yes,


they just took a large dump in the SEC Title Game and also lost to Auburn
on the road a little over a week ago (homerun spot for Auburn in that
game). But they have one of the most efficient offenses in the country and
their other 3 losses were Kentucky & LSU on the road and Kansas back in
November in OT. Their draw isn’t daunting to me and can see them in the
Elite 8 against UVA where you can start to hedge