Republic of Korea’s 2nd national Workshop on Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon growth Strategies in Northest Asia

- For Local governments’ GHG Mitigation Implement Guidelines

Ⅰ Ⅱ

Overview

Procedures of GHG Mitigation Plan

III

Future Plan

2

I

Overview

Overview

Project : A study of implementation plan for achieving Low Carbon Society Period : 2010~2012 (3 years)

Objective:
- Establish short, middle, and long-term strategies for LCS in KOREA - Suggest GHG Mitigation Measures by Sectors& Mitigation Strategies for
Local Governments types - Quantify the effects of GHG Mitigation according to the Fulfillment of Countermeasures

This Year’ Goal:
- Guideline for GHG mitigation implement plan for local government • LCS methodology for Local Governments • Suggest the quantitative effect of introduced measures for the LCS
4

Necessity for Guideline

Efficient GHG Mitigation tackling Climate Change - It is important for local governments to make an effort with strong country and government leadership. Chapter 11 of Framework Act on Low Carbon Green Growth - It is imperative for local governments to establish and implement Local Green Growth strategy to promote the Low Carbon Green Growth

Need to get a solid foundation to achieve future LCS through Local Governments' review of the implementation policies, understanding the GHG emission information and achieving reduction targets Need to standardize calculation tools for estimating GHG emissions and prediction in order to handle the national GHG over all

Flowchart of Guidelines
1. Setting up GHG Mitigation Goal
 National Goal, Local Governments’ Development Plan etc

2. Analyzing current GHG Emissions
 Method of GHG Emission calculation : based on IPCC G/L  Use of GHG-CAPSS data  Analysis of GHG Emissions’ increase and decrease

3. Estimating Future GHG Emissions
 Goal set-up Method : Setting up of base year and target year  Understanding of the Future image of each Local Government

BAU Estimate
Service Sector Classification Estimate of Activity Energy Basic Unit TC/TOE
Estimate of BAU Energy Consumption
and CO2 emissions

GHG Mitigation Estimates after countermeasures
Understanding of local governmetns’ characteristic & future Review of relevant countermeasures & synthesizing it Setting Representative indicators by sectors Calculation Tools for basic unit of reduction emission
Estimation of Mitigation potential & Establishing reduction goals

4. Drawing up GHG Mitigation Implementation Roadmap
 Establishing Quantitative countermeasures  Estimating Roadmap by BCM

II

Procedures of GHG Mitigation Plan
Analysis of Current GHG Emissions Estimate of Future GHG Emissions Feasible Countermeasures for local governments Details of Mitigation Measures

Analysis of Current GHG Emissions
Analysis of GHG emissions increase factor

- Understanding the characteristic of region’s emissions - analyzing the factor of variation in current emissions.
11

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions
Setting the Base Year & Target Year
Base year : 2005 (stabilization year of GHG Emission) - Setting middle term national GHG goal based on 2005 - Verifying the validity of the procedures based on present emissions

Target year : 2020 (Achieving the middle term GHG reduction goal) - According to Local governments’ situation - After 2020, suggesting the attainable goal from 2020

17

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions
Narrative Scenarios of Local government and quantification of target year
Social values
-Establishing the concept of LCS and Low Carbon Green Growth -Showing value & vision pursued by local governments; Technology-driven or Nature-oriented

Energy spending pattern
- The rate of increase and decrease in energy sources, the introduction rate of renewable energy

Features of daily life
-The rate of increase in population, members in family, the speed of aging society, the rate of inflation, etc

Changes in Urban Architecture ∙ transportation
- The rate of the influx of the population, the rate of increase in new buildings, changes in mode of transportation, the rate of increase in gas prices, the rate of change in vehicles’ fuel efficiency, the number of vehicles, the rate of change in mileage, the change of transportation division etc

Change in economy and industry
-The rate of economic growth, the rate of growth by industrial structure, change in the amount of export etc

Change in tourism industry
-Invigorating the local festival, Developing the low carbon Green tourism etc

etc. -change in the rate of biomass consumed
18

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - BAU
Method of Emissions Estimate

Classification of service sector

Residential

Commercial∙Public

Transportation

Industrial

Estimate of Activity
- The number of households - Population
- Road : The number of cars mileage - non-Road : Energy Consumption

- Total building floor area

Energy consumption

Estimate of Service demand

Estimate of Energy intensity
- Efficiency Improvement - Penetration Rate - Floor Area

- Efficiency Improvement

- Fuel Efficiency & Efficiency Improvement

Industrial

Estimate of Carbon intensity
- Share Variation In Energy Sources

Estimate of Energy Consumption & CO2 Emissions

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Consideration of both effects of present and feasible countermeasures
Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

Consideration of GHG emissions reduction through understanding the characteristics of local governments

Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

Consideration of long-term local governments’ Potential Setting up future goal, linking with other plans, drawing a feasible task

Measures
 policy, system  items for practicing green life  introduction of technology

Each sector’s measures

Review of relevant measures & synthesizing all
Industry Residential
Commercial public

Transport ation

National

Local

Overseas

Inputting measure’s data by sectors Each sector’s measures Database constructions by sectors Industry Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments Residential commercial public Transportation

Selection of representative indicator by sectors

Formulating the formula and base unit of emissions reduction

Calculation of emissions reduction and setting the reduction target

Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Synthesis of relevant countermeasures
Green growt Jeollabuk- Kyonggi- Synthe Reduction amount level of diffic Detail h 5 year pla do Do sis calculation ulty n
정성 효율등급 표시 및 최저소비효율 기준 적용 확대 가전업체별 「에너지효율 목표관리제」(TopRunner)도입 대기전력 저감 제품보급 저탄소 녹색마을 조성 ᆞ확대 녹색마을모델 개발 및 로드맵 구축 녹색마을 실천운동 전개 그린홈 보급 확대 및 관련제도 개선추 그린홈 보급 진 기존 주택의 단열설비 및 에너지 효율 개선(해피하 우스등) 주택탄소배출량(에너지효율)등급제 확산 물절약시스템 구축 빗물 재이용 Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο Ο 정성 정성 정량 정성 정성 정량 정량 정성 정량 정성 정량 정성 정성 정성 정성 정성 정성 정성 정량 정량 정량 정량 정량 정량 정량 정량 정량 정량 정량 상 하 중 중 중 하 상 상 중 중 상 상 상 상 상 중 중 중 중 중 중 중 중 중 중 중 중 중 중 중

Countermeasure Name
HEMS(홈에너지 management 시스 템) 보급 고효율기기보급 및 효율화

Detail countermeasure (contents)

Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

Each sector’s measures

신재생에너지 설비보급 및 이용 확대 신재생에너지(RPS)제도 도입 태양광 주택 보급 청정에너지(도시가스) 보급확대 집단에너지(지역 냉ᆞ난방) 시스템 보급 확대

Industry

Residential

The commercial general public

Transport ation

열병합발전단지 추가공급 녹색생활 실천 및 지원체체 구축 기후변화 컨설턴트 양성 및 운영 에코패밀리 시범 가정과 마을 지정 및 확대 탄소성적표지 인증제품 확산 자원순환의 날 제정 운영

Inputting measure’s data by sectors

TV시청시간 줄이기 컴퓨터사용시간 줄이기 냉장고 적정용량 유지하기 세탁 사용시간줄이기

Database constructions by sectors

청소횟수 줄이기 다리미시간 줄이기 난방시간 줄이기 난방온도 낮추기

Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments

냉방시간 줄이기 냉방온도 높이기 에어컨필터 주기적 청소하기

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Mitigation measures in residential sector

Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

Each sector’s measures

Industry

Residential

The commercial general public

Transport ation

Inputting measure’s data by sectors

Database constructions by sectors

Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Mitigation Measures in Commercial ∙ Public sector

Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

Each sector’s measures

Industry

Residential

The commercial general public

Transport ation

Inputting measure’s data by sectors

Database constructions by sectors

Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Mitigation measures in transportation sector

Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

Each sector’s measures

Industry

Residential

The commercial general public

Transport ation

Inputting measure’s data by sectors

Database constructions by sectors

Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Mitigation measures in common sector

Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

Each sector’s measures

Industry

Residential

The commercial general public

Transport ation

Inputting measure’s data by sectors

Database constructions by sectors

Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Estimates Standardization Form for Mitigation Potential by measures
Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

Each sector’s measures

Industry

Residential

The commercial general public

Transport ation

Inputting measure’s data by sectors
Database constructions by sectors

Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments

- To propose measures’ prototypes that will be applicable to all local governments and suggest the emissions reduction formulas and evaluation indicators by sectors. - To present the table for estimation standardization of emissions reduction by each measure. - Despite measure for being difficult to calculate emissions reduction, it could be figured out by evaluation and implementation indicators suggested.

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Formula for emissions reduction
Measurement Details
Bus Information System(BIS) Establishment Expansion

Indicator
․ The Status of Advertising Electronic Display of Bus Stops

formula

Invigoration of Public Transport Bus Rapid Transit(BRT) Transit(BRT) Establishment ․ The Number of Registration Bus ․ BRT Introduction Rate

Basic unit of emission reduction (kg/the number of vehicles∙yr) x the number of registration bus vehicles∙ x The Introduction Rate of BRT

Traffic Management & Improvements

Intelligent Transport systems & Services(ITS)

․ The Construction Status of Information Center

ITS Traffic

Green Car supply extension

․ The Number of Registration Car ․ Introduction Rate of Electric Cars, Cars, Hydrogen Fuel cell Cars, Hybrid cars, and Cars, cars, PlugPlug-in Hybrid cars ․ Effort Status of Promoting Low-pollution of LowExhaustExhaust-gas in service ․ The Number of Registration Car and Bus ․ Introduction Rate of Car Idling Ban ․ The Status of Biodiesel Energy

Basic unit of emission reduction (kg/the number of vehicles∙yr) x the number of registration cars vehicles∙ x the introduction rate of green car

Energy Efficiency Improvement & Green Technology Introduction

Promoting Low-pollution of LowExhaustExhaust-gas in service Car Idling Ban Expansion of Biodiesel Energy Diffusion Systems for Promoting Using Bicycles an Modifying related laws Building Networks of ReRe-used Bicycles

Basic unit of emission reduction (kg/the number of vehicles∙yr) x the number of registration car vehicles∙ and bus x Introduction rate of car idling ban

․ Status of Bicycles-related laws Bicycles-

Promoting Using Bicycles

․ Status of Networks of Re-used Bicycles ReBasic unit of emission reduction(kg/the number reduction(kg/the of vehicles∙yr) x the number of registration cars vehicles∙ x the implementation rate of eco-driving eco-

Implementation of Green life Style

EcoEco-driving Vitalization

․ The Number of Car Registration ․ Implementation Rate of Eco-driving Eco-

Estimate of Future GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
Comprehensive Table of Mitigation Potential
Details Base year & Implementation Status in 2020 Mitigation Potential(CO2ton) SCⅠ
Building BRT system Revitalization of the public transport Promotion of introducing remote working Subtotal Traffic Management Implementation of the automobile day & Improvements Subtotal Expansion of green car diffusion 0% in 2005, SCⅠ 18%, SCⅡ 18% in 2020 system 6.5% in 2005, SCⅠ 18%, SCⅡ 24% in 2020 0.7% in 2005, SCⅠ 1.2%, SCⅡ 1.6% in 2020 1,392 34,750 23,975 23,975 155,398 2,506 94,314 36,483 36,483 155,398 Introduction of car sharing system 2% in 2005, SCⅠ 13%, SCⅡ 13% in 2020 0% in 2005, SCⅠ 2%, SCⅡ 6% in 2020 4,134 29,225

SCⅡ
4,134 87,675

Transport
Energy Efficiency Improvement & Green Technology Introduction

Expansion of CNG Vehicles diffusion – focusing on buses Car idling ban Promoting using of cars with manual transmission Supply of compact cars and expansion of usage. Subtotal Implementation of Green Life Subtotal total Invigoration of Eco-driving

41% in 2005, SCⅠ 93%, SCⅡ 100% in 2020

80,412

91,236

2.5% in 2005, SCⅠ 26%, SCⅡ 26% in 2020

142,897

142,897

6.5% in 2005, SCⅠ 10%, SCⅡ 20% in 2020

2,002

7,723

7.0% in 2005, SCⅠ 16%, SCⅡ 25% in 2020

11,956 392,664

23,911 421,165 26,606 26,606 578,569

59.1% in 2005, SCⅠ 66%, SCⅡ 72% in 2020

14,122 14,122 465,511

Estimate of GHG Emissions - After Measures Taken
CO2 emissions estimate & total emissions reduction
ktCO2
18,000 16,000 14,000 commercial 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 industry 4,000 2,000 0 2005 2020 BAU
industry transportation total 4% reduction total 6% reduction

residential residential commercial

residential 9% commercial 3% transportatio n 12%

residential

commercial transport ation

residential 17% commercial 5% transportatio n 15%

residential commercial transport ation

transport ation

transport ation

industry

industry

industry

SC Ⅰ
commercial

SC Ⅱ
residential 가정

- Each sector’s emissions of the case area in 2005, BAU for the target year, and each sector’s emissions of scenario Ⅰ, Ⅱ

Drawing up of Roadmap by Mitigation Measures
Need of drawing up of roadmap

Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

Need Roadmap to achieve low carbon society and to
Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

accomplish the energy security and the more developed economy. Be able to examine the comprehensive image of the future and the details such as combination of various
Transport ation

Each sector’s measures

Industry

Residential

The commercial general public

measures, the problem of time, period and stage of the technical development, the way of technology diffusion, and implementation cost in order to fulfill the reduction target.

Inputting measure’s data by sectors

Database constructions by sectors

Suggestion of the basic roadmap for local governments 34

Drawing up of Roadmap by Mitigation Measures

Setting GHG emissions estimate and the target of emissions reduction

NIES
(Backcasting tool)

Related measures of local governments according to reduction target

Each sector’s measures
The commercial general public

Industry

Residential

Transportation

Inputting measure’s data by sectors

SNU
Prof. Lee Dong Kun

(Seoul national University

Database constructions by sectors

Making a result and road map by BCT

-Implement the backcasting tool built by NIES in Japan in cooperation with SNU. -The tool’s degree of adaptability for local governments and its level of using the data.

Drawing up of Roadmap by Mitigation Measures
Form and contents to draw up roadmap
Measure Countermeasures Description measures in relevant sub-sector detailed measures explaining current situation and description of measures Checking whether it is Under investigation/ under making a enforced or not plan/ under implementation Emissions reduction in 2020 emissions reduction in 2020 by scenarios Start time Entering the start year If it is under investigation or under making a plan, possible start year will be written Current Entering the current implementation implementation percentage percentage compared to compared to target target Duration of measures Measure’s implementation period 00 sector

- Cost calculated by national or local Expected cost government in order to introduce the measure - Technical development cost or funding Policy Implementation Suggesting the feasible implementation plan for local governments and people in order to fulfill it highly and effectively Comprehensive Effect Comprehensive Quantity Effect Entering CO2 emissions reduction, direct or indirect effect, and socioeconomic effect In case of being able to quantify the comprehensive effect type Parallel countermeasures Relevant measures Parallel countermeasures Parallel countermeasures Parallel countermeasures If there are countermeasures needing to be parallel with and conditions precedent such as building social infrastructure and relevant technical development, those measures are written here. Countermeasures Whether it is possible to immediately implement or not Checking possible or impossible Expected period reaching 100% completion after taking measures Expected period reaching 100% completion or target year

Drawing up of Roadmap by Mitigation Measures

Implementation Roadmap by Mitigation Measures

- Showing the implementation start year and the 100% completion period. - Figuring outcomprehensive measures and implementation time - The graph’s color density shows the rate of implementation

Detailed Promotion Project for Mitigation Measures
Establishment of the Organizing system Building Cooperation System in local government officials
- Need to be linked with civil servants in charge in order effectively to achieve the policy goal in case of policies relevant with GHG reduction measures such as urban planning and developing agricultural industrial complex plans - Establishing an alliance and Task cooperation systems between the authorities concerned in urban plan, green belt, construction & civil engineering, public transport, waste, and sewerage

Building Cooperation Systems among related organizations
- Related government bureaus - Related local governmental organizations - Climate change or Environmental watchdog groups - Businessperson or president of shopping centers - Residents or representatives in apartments. - Experts, Research Institute, Professors, NGO etc.

39

Detailed Promotion Plan for Implementation
Evaluation of local governments’ implementation
Initial year 2010
Reduction plan

year1 2011

year 2 2012

year 3 2013

year 4 2014

year 5 2015

~ ~

middle term g long-term go oal al

2020

2050

Plan

InterInterconnection

Policy reform Budget Implementation of measures CO2 emissions Understan ding of effect effect indicator ★

Implementati on

Middle term review

Short term review

Inspection

coverage

Monitoring emissions Evaluation budget effect emissions

- GHG emissions reduction measures are checked based on this items in every year - Whether mitigations by different means are done or not also should be checked

III

Future Plan

Future Plan
Scenario Development of Low-Carbon society in accordance with each local government type ex. Residential, Agricultural, Commerical, Industrial, etc.

Low- carbon technology & policy quantification by sectors - Consideration of feasible low-carbon technologies and policies - Analysis of mitigation potentials by measures and economy effect

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