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413092486.

xls

Production foreacast model for Oil & Gas


(Note how NPV, as a sum, is approx normally distributed)
Comment

Reserves (STB) #ADDIN? 500,000 50,000 Assume a lognormal distribution for reserves
Year 1 Production as % reserves (%) 10%
Year 1 Production (STB/yr) #ADDIN?
Decline rate (%) 12%
Gas-oil ratio (GOR) (mcf/STB) 0.750
PriceOil ($/STB) 40.0
Price increase for Oil (% p.a.) 4%
PriceGas year 1 ($/Mscf) 2.0
Price increase Gas (% p.a.) 3%
Discount rate (%) 12%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Oil production (STB p.a.) #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Gas production (mcf p.a.) #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Oil price ($/STB) 40.0 41.6 43.3 45.0 46.8 48.7 50.6 52.6 54.7 56.9
Gas price ($/mcf) 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.6
Oil revenue ($k) #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Gas revenue ($k) #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Total revenue #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
Discounted total revenue #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN? #ADDIN?
NPV of revenues (first 10 years) #ADDIN?

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