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Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Avg.

Month Sales Index Sales Index Sales Index Sales Index Index Month
1 55220 1.45 39875 0.98 32180 0.72 62377 1.36 1.13 1
2 57350 1.50 64128 1.58 38600 0.86 66501 1.45 1.35 2
3 15445 0.40 47653 1.17 25020 0.56 31404 0.68 0.70 3
4 27776 0.73 43050 1.06 51300 1.14 36504 0.79 0.93 4
5 21408 0.56 39359 0.97 31790 0.71 16888 0.37 0.65 5
6 17118 0.45 10317 0.25 32100 0.72 18909 0.41 0.46 6
7 18028 0.47 45194 1.11 59832 1.33 35500 0.77 0.92 7
8 19883 0.52 46530 1.15 30740 0.68 51250 1.12 0.87 8
9 15796 0.41 22105 0.54 47800 1.06 34443 0.75 0.69 9
10 53665 1.41 41350 1.02 73890 1.65 68088 1.48 1.39 10
11 83269 2.18 46024 1.13 60202 1.34 68175 1.48 1.54 11
12 72991 1.91 41856 1.03 55200 1.23 61100 1.33 1.38 12
Avg. 38162 40620 44888 45928 Total
Total 457949 487441 538654 551139 Average rate

Avg Increase of Demand: 31063 Year 5 Estimated Annual Demand: 582202


Average Monthly Demand: 48517

Year 5 Avg. Avg. Forecast 90000


Month Demand Index Demand Month
80000
1 48517 1.13 54626 1
2 48517 1.35 65369 70000 2
3 48517 0.70 34192 60000 Column A 3
4 48517 0.93 45185 Column B 4
50000
5 48517 0.65 31607 Column D 5
6 48517 0.46 22189 40000 Column F 6
7 48517 0.92 44767 30000 Column H 7
8 48517 0.87 42054 Column D 8
20000
9 48517 0.69 33633 9
10 48517 1.39 67351 10000 10
11 48517 1.54 74480 0 11
12 48517 1.38 66749 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12
Total 582202
Avg. Index Year 4 - Year 4 - Year 4 - Year 4 - | Year 4 - Year 4 - Year 4 - |
after Year 3 Demand Forecast Error Error| Error² Error% Error%|
1.05 62377 47065 15312 15312 234447478 24.55% 24.55% Average Error: 1040
1.31 66501 58974 7527 7527 56653313 11.32% 11.32%
0.71 31404 31949 -545 545 296864 -1.73% 1.73% MAD: 7337
0.98 36504 43848 -7344 7344 53934596 -20.12% 20.12%
0.75 16888 33488 -16600 16600 275571248 -98.30% 98.30% RMSE: 9238
0.47 18909 21212 -2303 2303 5303326 -12.18% 12.18%
0.97 35500 43660 -8160 8160 66582383 -22.99% 22.99% MPE: -5.82%
0.78 51250 35182 16068 16068 258184001 31.35% 31.35%
0.67 34443 30269 4174 4174 17421681 12.12% 12.12% MAPE: 20.80%
1.36 68088 60902 7186 7186 51634296 10.55% 10.55%
1.55 68175 69668 -1493 1493 2230170 -2.19% 2.19%
1.39 61100 62436 -1336 1336 1784815 -2.19% 2.19%
12485 88048 1024044171 -69.80% 249.58%
Average rate 20.80%

Year 4 - Year 4 - Year 4 - Cumul. Year 4 - | Tracking


Demand Forecast Error Error Error| MAD Signal
62377 47065 15312 15312 31754 15312.00 1 Tracking Signal is between ±3
66501 58974 7527 22839 51447 11419.50 2.00
31404 31949 -545 22294 32494 7794.67 2.86
36504 43848 -7344 14950 51192 7681.85 1.95
16888 33488 -16600 -1650 50089 9465.55 -0.17
18909 21212 -2303 -3953 23515 8271.77 -0.48
35500 43660 -8160 -12113 51820 8255.77 -1.47
51250 35182 16068 3955 19114 9232.32 0.43
34443 30269 4174 8129 26095 8670.27 0.94
68088 60902 7186 15315 53717 8521.82 1.80
68175 69668 -1493 13821 71162 7882.87 1.75
61100 62436 -1336 12485 63772 7337.29 1.70
Month Avg. Index Year 4 - D Year 4 - F Year 4 - Er Year 4 - |E Year 4 - Error² Year 4 - Er Year 4 - |Error%|

1 1.05 62377 47065 15312 15312 234447478.01 24.55% 24.55%


2 1.31 66501 58974 7527 7527 56653313 11.32% 11.32%
3 0.71 31404 31949 -545 545 296864 -1.73% 1.73%
4 0.98 36504 43848 -7344 7344 53934596 -20.12% 20.12%
5 0.75 16888 33488 -16600 16600 275571248 -98.30% 98.30%
6 0.47 18909 21212 -2303 2303 5303326 -12.18% 12.18%
7 0.97 35500 43660 -8160 8160 66582383 -22.99% 22.99%
8 0.78 51250 35182 16068 16068 258184001.02 31.35% 31.35%
9 0.67 34443 30269 4174 4174 17421681 12.12% 12.12%
10 1.36 68088 60902 7186 7186 51634296 10.55% 10.55%
11 1.55 68175 69668 -1493 1493 2230170 -2.19% 2.19%
12 1.39 61100 62436 -1336 1336 1784815 -2.19% 2.19%
Total 12485 88048 1024044171 -69.80% 249.58%

Month Year 4 - D Year 4 - F Year 4 - Er Cumul. ErrYear 4 - |E MAD Tracking Signal

1 62377 47065 15312 15312 31754 15312.00 1


2 66501 58974 7527 22839 51447 11419.50 2.00
3 31404 31949 -545 22294 32494 7794.67 2.86
4 36504 43848 -7344 14950 51192 7681.85 1.95
5 16888 33488 -16600 -1650 50089 9465.55 -0.17
6 18909 21212 -2303 -3953 23515 8271.77 -0.48
7 35500 43660 -8160 -12113 51820 8255.77 -1.47
8 51250 35182 16068 3955 19114 9232.32 0.43
9 34443 30269 4174 8129 26095 8670.27 0.94
10 68088 60902 7186 15315 53717 8521.82 1.80
11 68175 69668 -1493 13821 71162 7882.87 1.75
12 61100 62436 -1336 12485 63772 7337.29 1.70
Average Error: 1040

MAD: 7337

RMSE: 9238

MPE: -5.82%

MAPE: 20.80%

Tracking Signal is between ±3