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BA1

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Syllabus outline!

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Exam Format!

• 2 hour time limit!

• Multiple choice, drag and drop, number entry, hot spot, multiple

response (will say how many correct answers)!

• Ideally: leave 1 week after the end of the course, but not more than

3 weeks!

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Session structure!

1 Microeconomic and organisational context I: the goals and decisions of

organisations

2 Microeconomic and organisational context I: the market system!

3 Financial context of business I

4 Macroeconomic and institutional context I: the domestic economy

5 Macroeconomic and institutional context I: the international economy!

6 Financial context of business I: international aspects

7 Financial context of business III: discounting and investment appraisal

8 Informational context of business I: summarising and analysing data

9 Informational context of business II: index numbers!

10 Informational context of business III: inter-relationships between variables

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Session 1

Microeconomic and Organisational Context I:

The Goals and Decisions of Organisations

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The Business Organisation!

Views of

Profit!

Maximisation! (NFP)!

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Not for Profit Organisations!

shareholder wealth maximisation. Instead their

goals will be set by their key stakeholders.

These key stakeholders are determined by two

criteria:

• the stakeholders influence.

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Types of Organisation!

Control!

Public! Private!

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Shareholder Wealth!

maximisation as a key organisational goal. This goal can be assessed

in two ways:!

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Shareholder Interest!

• Shares – Funds that are raised for the business activity by dividing up

ownership of the company into equal parts!

his ownership of profits, losses and assets of the company. This is

proportional to the number of shares held!

• Stock Exchange – The place where shares in quoted companies are bought

and sold!

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Shareholder Returns!

• The returns to a business owner can be considered

either as happening:

– In a single instance in time (short run) and could

be measured by:

• Return on capital employed

• Earnings per share

– Over a period of time (long run)

• This would involve consideration of the time

value of money (more on this later in the

syllabus)

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Short Term Measures!

– Measured as:

[EBIT]

Capital employed

• Capital employed can be measured differently.

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Short Term Measures!

shareholders expressed per share

Nominal value of a share

and tax

Number of shares in issue

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Long Term Measures!

The key to measuring long term success will be to

ensure that returns to shareholders are at least equal to

the cost of acquiring the capital required to produce a

long term flow of earnings.

income from any investment.

Appraisal’

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Long Term Measures!

Share Values

investment. With shares, the future income will be in the

form of dividends from the company and the net present

value of these dividends should represent the value of

the share.

the value of these shares.

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Stakeholders!

Interest and

Influence!

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Risk & Return!

Before deciding whether to buy, hold or sell shares in a firm the investor will

consider whether the returns from the firm are adequate to compensate them

for the risks of investing in the firm. The minimum rate of return that is

acceptable to shareholders is called the required rate.!

particular section of the market. For example shares in pharmaceutical

industries may have greater systematic risks than shares in bakeries. !

Unsystematic risk (or specific risk) is the risk associated with investing in a

particular firm. For example a firm’s shares may have high unsystematic risk

due to the firm’s high dependence on the sales of a single line of product!

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Risk Return Curve!

Time value of

money!

Risk Free Rate!

Rate of inflation!

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Corporate Governance!

of shareholders. But it is directors who make decisions

and manage the company so there is a threat that they

will follow their own goals rather than the goals of the

organisation.

governance have been created for companies and

summarised into a “Combined Code”

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Key Principles!

• the board to have equal numbers of executive and

non-executive directors

• transparency, openness and fairness

• reflect the interests of all stakeholders

• a fully accountable board

• remuneration committee

• nomination committee for directors

• hold an AGM

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Transaction Costs!

• Transaction costs of outsourcing

• Variables that impact on transaction costs

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Session 2

Microeconomic and Organisational

Context II: The Market System

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Session 2

Microeconomic and Organisational Context I:

Measuring Returns to the Shareholder

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Influences on Prices!

Demand: Supply:

The plans of consumers The plans of producers

Price

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Influences on Prices!

Demand: Supply:

The plans of consumers The plans of producers

Price

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Consumer Behaviour and Demand!

• Construction of a demand curve.!

Price

P2

P1

D

Q2 Q1 Quantity

Contraction

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Conditions of Demand!

• Income!

• Tastes and preferences!

• Substitutes!

• Complements !

• Population!

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Shift in a demand curve!

Price

Shift due to a change in one

of the conditions of demand

P1

D2

D1

Q1 Q2 Quantity

increase

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Elasticity of Demand!

• Elasticity measures responsiveness of one variable to changes in another

variable in percentage terms.!

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Price Elasticity of Demand!

• This is measured as:!

arc method!

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Price Elasticity of Demand!

PED Meaning

inelastic quantity changes by less than 10%

=1 Unit If price changes by 10%, then

elastic quantity changes by exactly 10%

elastic quantity changes by more than 10%

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Position on the demand curve!

• Elasticity varies along the length of straight line demand curves as

shown:!

unit elastic

PED = 0 =

Inelastic section perfectly

inelastic

Quantity

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Determinants of PED!

• Income!

• Availability and closeness of substitutes!

• Necessities!

• Habit!

• Time!

• Definition of market!

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Supply and Market!

• Construction of a supply curve.!

Price

S1

P2

P1

Q1 Q2 Quantity

extension

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Conditions of Supply!

• Costs of production change!

• Technological change!

• Indirect taxes!

• Number of firms!

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Shift in a supply curve!

Price

S1 S2

of the conditions of supply

P1

Q1 Q2 Quantity

increase

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Elasticity of Supply!

• This is measured as:!

arc method!

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Supply Elasticity!

• Elasticity of straight line supply curves:!

regardless of slope, is relatively inelastic.!

of slope, is relatively elastic.!

regardless of slope, is unit elastic.!

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Determinants of Price Elasticity

of Supply!

• Time!

• Factors of production!

• Stocks!

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The Price Mechanism!

• Equilibrium price determination:!

S1

Price

Excess supply

P1

Equilibrium point

P2 where demand = supply

D1

Qd Q2 Qs Quantity

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An example:!

Demand = Supply

quantity

50p 600 600

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Changes to the equilibrium!

From the initial demand and supply curves and

equilibrium position:!

involves a change in the conditions of demand or

supply (shift)!

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Effect of a change in demand

conditions!

S1

Price

P2

New equilibrium point where

P1 new demand = supply

D2

D1

Q1 Q2 Quantity

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Effect of a change in supply

conditions!

S1

Price S2

P1

P2 New equilibrium point where

demand = new supply

D1

Q1 Q2 Quantity

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Market failure!

The inability of a market to allocate resources in a way that maximises

utility!

• Public goods!

• Externalities!

• Merit goods!

• Demerit goods!

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Interferences in market prices!

• Governments will sometimes interfere with the equilibrium position when

they feel this is necessary. An example of this are the minimum wage

rule.!

• This

can lead to excess supply (i.e. unemployment) which the

government then have to deal with (through paying unemployment

benefits).!

• Minimum prices!

• Maximum prices!

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Economies and diseconomies of scale!

• Internal economies of scale:!

– technical!

– financial!

– trading!

• Diseconomies of scale!

– technical!

– trading!

– managerial!

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Session 3

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Financial Markets!

• money markets!

• capital markets!

• foreign exchange markets!

• commodity markets!

• derivatives markets!

• insurance markets !

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Financial intermediaries!

Channelling funds between lenders and borrowers can be achieved

by:!

between the two parties involved!

assets and liabilities to meet the needs of borrowers

and lenders !

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Financial Intermediaries!

• Risk reduction!

• Aggregation!

• Maturity transformation!

• Financial intermediation!

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Liquidity surpluses and deficits!

Businesses!

• Receipts!

• Payments!

• Lack of synchronisation!

Government!

• Receipts!

• Payments!

• Lack of synchronisation!

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Financial products!

Considerations:!

• Yield / cost!

• Risk!

• Time period!

• Liquidity!

• Transaction costs!

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Capital and money markets!

Capital markets – maturities > 1 year!

Products:!

• Bonds!

• Credit agreements!

• Mortgages!

• Bills of exchange!

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Yields on financial products!

• Returns/Yields:!

Market price of the security

• This

means that yields rise when the market

price of the security falls.!

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Relationship with interest rates!

movement in interest rates. So if interest rates were to fall, the value of

debt should rise.!

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The Central Bank & Interest

Rates!

• Interest

rates in a free market economy will be determined by the

demand and supply of money (just like any other economy).!

• However because interest rates effect other parts of the economy (such

as inflation, the housing market, the value of bonds and shares), the

central bank often control the supply and demand for money in order to

control interest rates.!

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Banks!

Main activities:!

• safeguarding money!

• transferring money!

• lending money!

• facilitating trade!

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Credit creation!

BANK

£100 Loans £90

£ Loans £81

Dep £90

Spends Spends

Dep £81 Vault £81 £90

£10

£9

£8.10

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Merchant banks!

Main activities:!

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Non-bank financial

intermediaries!

• Building societies!

• Pension funds!

• Insurance companies!

• Finance companies!

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The Central Bank!

Roles:!

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Session 4

Macroeconomic and Institutional

Context I: The Domestic Economy

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Macroeconomics and

Government Policy Goals!

Government policies!

• Economic growth!

• Manage inflation!

• Manage unemployment!

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The Circular Flow Model!

important to have the figures for national income, but to also

understand the factors and processes which determine it’s level and

growth.!

These are analysed using the framework of the circular flow model of

income.!

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Simple circular flow model!

This assumes:!

• No government!

• No savings or investment!

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Simple circular flow model!

Expenditure Income

Households

Land Rent

Consumption Output of goods Labour Wages

Expenditure and services or Capital Interest

real income Enterprise Profit

Firms

Income Expenditure

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A more complex model!

• household may save, and financial institutions can use these savings

for investment!

expenditure!

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Abbreviations!

Ø Y national income!

Ø C consumption!

Ø S savings!

Ø Iinvestment!

Ø T taxation!

Ø G government expenditure!

Ø X exports!

Ø M imports!

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Incorporating withdrawals and injections!

Financial Savings & hoarding Government

Institutions

Income tax

Outflow Households

& NIC

on B of P

Inflow on Wages &

Overseas the B of P salaries

Sector

Overseas

Consumption Sector Government

Financial

Expenditure Institutions

Overseas

Overseas Sector

Sector investment

Government Imports

Specific

taxes &

Exports Contracts

VAT Taxes Government

Firms

Financial

Government

Institutions

Savings

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Withdrawals and injections!

Withdrawals [W] are not passed on as expenditure and reduce the level of

income!

• Savings [S]!

• Taxation [T]!

Injections [J] is spending which is additional to the circular flow and

increase the level of income!

• Investment [I]!

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Equilibrium!

Inflow = Outflow

Expenditure [E] = Income [Y] 1

Fact E ≡ C+J

Fact Y ≡ C+W

C+J = C+W

J = W 2

Fact J≡I+G+X

Fact W≡S+T+M

I+G+X = S+T+M 3

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Consumption!

• Average propensity to consume (APC):!

• Consumption/income!

• APC = C/Y!

• MPC = ∆C/ ∆ Y!

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Savings!

• income!

• interest rates!

• inflation!

• credit!

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Investment!

This is affected by:!

• the accelerator!

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The multiplier!

• Disturbancesto equilibrium can arise because of increases or

decreases in injections!

• Any

change in an expenditure results in income changing by smaller

and smaller steps towards a new final equilibrium level!

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The Trade Cycle!

Aggregate demand!

Aggregate supply!

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The Trade Cycle!

Boom! Recession!

Recovery! Stagflation!

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Government Economic Policy!

• Fiscal policy!

• Monetary policy!

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Fiscal Policy!

This involves changing:!

• taxation!

• raises revenue!

• changes markets!

• government spending!

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Supply Side Policy!

This is aimed at increasing aggregate supply by:!

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Monetary policy!

In effect, this means managing the interest rate. For example a rise in

interest rates should result in:!

• a fall in spending!

• a fall in investment!

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Managing interest rate risk!

Avoid the effects of a drop in interest rates for monetary deposits and a rise

in interest rates for borrowings!

movements whilst still protecting against downside movements!

dates!

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Unemployment!

• Demand deficiency!

• consumer expenditure!

• business investment!

• exports!

• government expenditure!

• Structural change!

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Effects of unemployment!

• Under-utilisation of resources!

• Social problems!

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Inflation!

Causes of inflation:!

• demand-pull inflation!

• cost-push inflation!

• expectations effect!

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Session 5

Macroeconomic and Institutional

Context II: The International Economy

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International Trade!

Reasons countries trade:!

• To obtain goods they cannot produce!

• To obtain goods more cheaply from other

countries!

Advantages to trade!

• More output for same amount of inputs!

• Increased productivity from repetition!

• Economies of scale!

• Greater consumer choice!

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Protectionism!

Reasons for restrictions on trade:!

• to protect employment!

• to raise revenue!

• to maintain security!

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Protectionism!

• inefficiency is encouraged!

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Protectionism!

Methods of protection:!

• tariffs!

• quotas!

• hidden restrictions!

• subsidies!

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Trade agreements!

• Bi-lateral vs multi-lateral!

• Customs unions!

• Single markets!

• Economic unions!

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World Trade Organisation!

The major functions are:!

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Balance of Payments!

This is a record in account form of all the transactions arising between

the residents of one country and the inhabitants of the rest of the world

for a specified time period.!

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The Current Account!

Typical Current Account!

£20,000

Value of physical imports (£800,000)

(£30,000)

(£400,000)

Services £3,000

Rent interest profits &

£1,000

dividends

Invisible trade balance £4,000

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Capital Financial Account!

Capital & Financial Account!

Capital Account

This includes transfers of capital and +£300,000

£1,000

acquisition/disposal of non-produced assets £0

Balance £1,000

£300,000

Financial Account

UK Overseas investment ( (£40,000)

£40,000)

Overseas investment in the UK £35,000

£35,000

Reserve assets £9,000

£100,000

Balance £4,000

£400,000

Net movement in external assets/liabilities £5,000

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Reconciliation!

(£6,000)

Balance on capital and financial accounts £5,000

£400,000

Errors and omissions £1,000 £0

Reconciliation £0£0

If the balance on the capital and financial accounts had been £8,000:

Balance on capital and financial accounts £275,000

£8,000

Errors and omissions (£2,000)

Reconciliation £0

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Deficit Solutions!

• Expenditure switching strategies:!

• Devaluation !

• Expenditure reducing strategies (deflation):!

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Globalisation!

• the growing interdependence of countries

worldwide !

• increasing volume and variety of cross-border

transactions in goods and services!

• free international capital flows !

• more rapid and widespread diffusion of

technology!

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Globalisation!

Other aspects would involve:!

• the reduction of trade barriers!

• homogenisation of tastes!

• firms selling the same product all markets!

• greater harmonisation of laws!

• dilution of traditional cultures!

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Globalisation!

Consequences of globalisation:!

• Industrial relocation!

• Increased competition!

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Globalisation!

• Improved communications!

• Political realignments!

• Cost differentials!

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External analysis of the macro environment!

PESTEL analysis:!

• Political!

• Economic!

• Social!

• Technological!

• Ecological / environmental!

• Legal!

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Session 6

Financial Context of Business II:

International Aspects

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Foreign Exchange!

• An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another

currency!

analysis!

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Exchange rates: determinants of demand!

• Exports of goods!

• Interest rates!

• Speculation!

• Demand by the authorities!

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Exchange rates: determinants of supply!

• Imports of goods!

• Interest rates!

• Speculation!

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Floating Exchange Rate!

P

P1

D1

D2

Q1 Q2

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Foreign exchange risks!

• Transaction risk!

• Economic risk!

• Translation risk!

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Session 7

Financial Context of Business III:

Discounting and Investment Appraisal

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The time value of money!

rather than later, and income in the future will have a

lower value than the same income today. So when

evaluating future income we need to “discount” (reduce)

it’s value to get an equivalent current value.

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The time value of money!

Three reasons:

Impact of inflation

Effect of risk

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Simple interest!

!

Interest = P × r × n!

!

!

Future Value = P + (P × r × n)!

!

P = amount invested!

n = number of years!

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Illustration of simple interest!

£1,000 is invested for 5 years. The sum earns 10% simple interest each

year. How much will accumulate by the end of the fifth year?!

Answer!

= P + (P × r × n)!

= £1,500!

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Compound interest!

Interest is paid or received on the principal plus any accumulated interest!

Formula is given !

S = X (1 + r)n!

• X = amount invested!

• n = number of years!

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Illustration of compound interest!

is 10% per annum. Find the value of the account (to the nearest pound)

after 5 years and calculate the interest earned.!

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Illustration of compound interest!

10% per annum. Find the value of the account (to the nearest pound) after 5

years and calculate the interest earned.!

Answer!

= £1,000 (1 + 0.1)5!

= £1,611!

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Illustration of compound interest!

The formula should be used in the exam but it may help to look at the

calculation in this way:!

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Equivalent annual interest rates!

a year!

• This is called the equivalent annual interest rate or the annual percentage

rate (APR)!

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Illustration of equivalent annual interest rates!

the equivalent annual rate. !

Answer!

describing their products. The APR is usually the best indicator of the

true cost.!

!

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Terminal values!

the end of the investment for the cash flows!

• Compound each cash flow over the life of the investment using the interest

rate!

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Illustration of terminal values!

An investment of $3,000 is made initially and then $1,800 at the end of the

first, second and third years and finally $600 at the end of the fourth year.!

If interest is paid annually at 6.5%, calculate the terminal value at the end of

the fifth year.!

Answer!

Total = $11,280.81!

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Sinking funds!

• These have equal sums paid into them each period, e.g. a regular savings

account!

• Use the formula to calculate the amount at the end of the investment period!

!

S = A (Rn – 1)!

(R – 1)!

!

A = Equal sum!

n = number of periods!

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Illustration of sinking funds!

rate of 10% with all payments made at the end of each year. How much

will the fund accumulate to?!

Answer!

(R – 1)!

(1.1 – 1)!

= £3,310!

!

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Illustration of sinking funds!

How would the answer differ if the funds were paid in at the start of each

year?!

Answer!

In the previous illustration we said that if the payments were made at the

end of each year we would have £3,310 by the end of year 3!

However, if the payments are made at the start of each year they will

attract an extra year’s interest and the final sum will be £3,310 × 1.1 =

£3,641!

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Discounting!

• When we looked at compound interest we said that the future value after n periods,!

S = X (1 + r)n!

• However, we may know the future value, S, but need to calculate the present value, X

Rearranging the equation we get:!

S = future sum!

n = number of periods!

r = cost of capital/ discount rate as a decimal (we called this the interest rate

previously)!

Present value, X = S !

(1 + r)n!

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Illustration of discounting!

interest rate is 10% pa.!

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Illustration of discounting!

Find the present value of £25,000 receivable in 6 years’ time, if the

interest rate is 10% pa.!

Answer!

Present value, X = S!

(1 + r)n!

= £25,000!

1.16!

= £14,112!

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Discounting the quick way!

• We already know that present value, X = S !

n!

(1 + r)

(1 + r)n!

• This is called the discount factor and can be found in our mathematical

tables!

• This gives an alternative and quick method of calculating the present value !

!

Present value, X = S × Discount Factor (from tables)!

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Illustration of discounting using tables!

Use the present value table to find the present value of £25,000

receivable in 6 years’ time, if the interest rate is 10% pa.!

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Illustration of discounting using tables!

Use the present value table to find the present value of £25,000

receivable in 6 years’ time, if the interest rate is 10% pa.!

Answer!

= £25,000 × 0.564!

= £14,100!

rounding difference only!

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Net present value (NPV)!

discounting.!

NPV = present value of all the cash inflows minus the present value of

all the cash outflows.!

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Illustration of NPV!

forecast to yield the following net cash flows:!

Year 1 2 3 4 5!

Calculate the net present value of this project if the firm has a cost of

capital of 10%!

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Illustration of NPV!

Answer!

• Project has a positive NPV of £18,176: accept!

£000! Factor 10%! Value £000!

! 0! (100)! 1! (100)!

1! 40! 0.909! 36.36!

2! 35! 0.826! 28.91!

3! 32! 0.751! 24.032!

4! 25! 0.683! 17.075!

5! 19! 0.621! 11.799!

18.176!

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Annuities!

!

• Questions may require us to calculate the present value of a constant

amount!

periods !

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!

Illustration of annuities!

Suppose I expect to receive £1,000 per annum for 3 years, starting in one

year’s time, and want to calculate the present value using a discount rate of

5%.!

Answer!

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Illustration of annuities!

Method 1!

• One approach would be to discount each cash flow separately and sum the

results:!

2.723 £2,723!

• The present value of £2,723 is correct but this is a time consuming method,

particularly if the annuity continues for a long period!

!

www.ultimateaccess.net

!

Illustration of annuities!

Method 2!

cash flow individually we can discount the annuity using a cumulative

present value.!

• This is the sum of all of the individual discount factors and can be found

from the tables.!

! www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration of annuities!

Method 3!

• The cumulative present value factor may not be available from the tables. !

• The calculation is the same as in method 2 but we will need to calculate the

cumulative present value factor.!

1⎡

1

1 ⎤ 1 ⎡ 1 ⎤

−

r ⎢⎣ (1! + r )n ⎥⎦

1 −

0.05 ⎢⎣ (1 + 0.05)3 ⎥⎦

(given) PV = £1,000 × !

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Perpetuities!

!

A perpetuity is an annuity that continues forever.!

!

Present value of a perpetuity =

perpetuity × 1/r!

!

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Illustration of a perpetuity!

£10,000 per annum. What is a fair price for the perpetuity, assuming a

discount rate of 3% per annum? (Round the answer to the nearest £)!

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Illustration of a perpetuity!

£10,000 per annum. What is a fair price for the perpetuity, assuming a

discount rate of 3% per annum? (Round the answer to the nearest £)!

Answer!

= £333,333!

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Internal rate of return (IRR)!

!

• IRR is another method of appraising investments and involves discounting!

• Accept the project if the IRR is more than the company’s cost of capital!

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Internal rate of return (IRR)!

NPV £

Positive

! NPV

! IRR

Cost of

Capital %

Company cost

of capital

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Internal rate of return (IRR)!

Estimate of IRR!

IRR is calculated using a three step approach:!

• Step 1: Take a small discount rate r1 and calculate the NPV (NPV1 )!

• Step 2: Take another discount rate r2 and calculate the NPV (NPV2 )!

⎡ NPV1 ⎤

IRR = r1 + ⎢ (r2 − r1 )⎥

⎣ NPV1 − NPV2 ⎦

(learn)!

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Illustration of IRR!

year-end cash flows:!

Year 1 2 3 4!

Discount the project at 10% and at 15%, then calculate the internal rate

of return of the project!

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Illustration of IRR!

Answer!

(£)! Factor 10%! Value (£)!

! 0! (140,000)! 1! (140,000)!

1! 60,000! 0.909! 54,540!

!

2! 50,000! 0.826! 41,300!

! 3! 45,000! 0.751! 33,795!

4! 30,000! 0.683! 20,490!

10,125!

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Illustration of IRR!

Answer!

(£)! Factor 15%! Value (£)!

! 0! (140,000)! 1! (140,000)!

1! 60,000! 0.870! 52,200!

!

2! 50,000! 0.756! 37,800!

! 3! 45,000! 0.658! 29,610!

4! 30,000! 0.572! 17,160!

(3,230)!

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Illustration of IRR!

Step 3: Calculate the IRR!

!

⎡ NPV1 ⎤

!

IRR = r1 + ⎢ (r2 − r1 )⎥

! ⎣ NPV1 − NPV2 ⎦

!

(10,125 + 3,230)!

= 13.79%!

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Session 8

Informational Context of Business I:

Summarising and Analysing Data

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Information!

Data vs information!

• A!

• C!

• C!

• U!

• R!

• A!

• T!

• E!

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Bar charts!

• Height of the bar is proportional to the frequency!

(a) Simple !

(b) Multiple!

(c) Compound!

construct each type of bar chart. !

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Illustration of simple bar chart!

!

!

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Illustration of multiple bar chart!

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Illustration of compound bar chart!

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Scatter diagrams!

• Visual way of determining if there might be a relationship between two

variables!

diagram!

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Illustration of scatter diagram!

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Types of correlation!

!

!

!

! x

x ! x

! x x

!

x

! !

x

x

! x

! x

! !

! !

r = +1!

r = - 1!

!

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Types of correlation!

!

!

!

x x x

!

!

x

! x

! x

x

!

!

x x

! x

!

! !

! !

www.ultimateaccess.net

!

!

Types of correlation!

!

!

!

x

x x

!

! x x

x

x !

! x x x

x

x

x x !

! x

! !

No correlation! !

r = 0! !

! !

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Histograms!

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Illustration of a histogram!

12

10

Weight (kg)

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Ogives!

• More useful for continuous data since the intermediate values of x mean something!

• Step 1: Plot the cumulative frequency on the y axis against the UPPER end of each class interval on the x axis!

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Illustration of an ogive!

• The following cumulative frequency distribution relates to the weight of some sand bags:!

(kg)!

> 10 ≤ 20 1 1!

> 20 ≤ 30 6 1 + 6 = 7!

> 30 ≤ 40 8 7 + 8 = 15!

> 40 ≤ 50 10 15 + 10 = 25!

> 50 ≤ 70 10 25 + 10 = 35!

> 70 ≤ 90 6 35 + 6 = 41!

50!

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Illustration of an ogive!

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Session 9

Informational Context of Business II:

Index Numbers

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Simple index numbers!

• The most common type of indices are price indices. They compare the price in one

year to the price in another year, called the base year !

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Example of a simple price index!

Turn the following prices into an index series with 2003 as the base year!

Answer!

Sample interpretation In 2004 the price was 10.7% higher than in 2003.!

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Changing the base year!

• Exam tip: To change to a new base year divide all index numbers by the

index number of the new base year and multiply by 100!

Re-base the index calculated in the previous worked example to the Year

2006 !

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Changing the base year!

Answer!

Sample interpretation The price in 2003 was 77.8% of the price in the year 2006.!

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Combining series of index numbers!

comparisons to earlier years which were measured using the old

index!

then restating the index values in previous years so that comparisons

can be made!

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Illustration of combining indices!

• The price index below changed its base to 1983 after many years with base 1970.

Recalculate it as a single series with base 1983. By how much have prices risen from 1981

to 1985?!

(1970 = 100)!

1981 271!

1982 277!

1983 280!

(1983 =100)!

1984 104!

1985 107!

! www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration of combining indices!

Answer!

(1970 = 100)!

(1983 =100)!

! www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration of combining indices!

• Now that we have a single series spanning both 1981 and 1985, we

can compare the two:!

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Relative price indices!

• When several items are being considered it is important to recognise the

importance of the different items within the group. Hence a weighting is

usually attached to each item. In the examination the weightings will

always be given.!

∑w!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration on relative price

indices!

Item Price (2007) Price (2008) Weighting!

• Calculate a weighted relative price index for the data above and interpret your answer.!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration on relative price

indices!

Answer!

P1/P0 W P1/P0 x W!

18 18.84!

= 104.7!

• The average price rise of the three items has been 4.7%!

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Choice of weighting!

Advantages of base year weights!

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Quantity indices!

• Calculated in a similar way to the price indices but changing quantities are

measured instead of price!

∑w!

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Illustration on quantity indices!

A company manufactures two products, A and B. The sales figures over the

past three years have been as follows:!

Year A B!

Weighting 22 19!

Using 2006 as a base, compute a weighted relative quantity index for 2007 and

2008, and interpret their values.!

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Illustration of quantity indices!

Answer!

2006 to 2007!

Q1/Q0 W Q1/Q0 x W!

41 41.939!

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Illustration of quantity indices!

2006 to 2008!

Q1/Q0 W Q1/Q0 x W!

41 42.642!

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Session 10

Informational Context of Business III:

Inter-relationships Between Variables

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Big data!

Helps companies make more informed business decisions by!

likely to work!

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Correlation!

• Correlation establishes the strength of the relationship between

variables that are related to each other!

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Pearson’s correlation coefficient, r!

!

!

2 2 2 2

√(n∑x – (∑x) )(n∑y - (∑y) )!

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Illustration of Pearson’s correlation

coefficient!

A new machine has been purchased and management are keen to

explore the link between output and cost. Output and cost figures for the

last four months are as follows:!

Output 3! 4! 5! 6!

(000s)!

Cost 6! 7! 7! 10!

(£000s)!

!

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Illustration of Pearson’s correlation

coefficient!

Answer!

r= n∑xy - ∑x∑y!

x! y! xy! x2! y2!

2 2 2 2

√(n∑x – (∑x) )(n∑y - (∑y) )! 3! 6! 18! 9! 36!

= 4(141) − (18)(30)!

5! 7! 35! 25! 49!

√ (4 x 86) − (18)2(4 x 234 − (30)2)!

6! 10! 60! 36! 100!

= 24! ∑x = 18! ∑y = 30! ∑xy = 141! ∑x2 = 86! ∑y2 =234!

√(20)(36) = + 0.89!

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Coefficient of determination, r2!

!

• Coefficient of determination is calculated by squaring the correlation

coefficient i.e. r2!

changes in x !

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Illustration of coefficient of

determination!

Using the information in the previous illustration calculate, and comment on, the

coefficient of determination !

Answer!

r2 = 0.892 = 0.7921!

This means that 79.21% of the change in cost relating to the machine can be

explained by a change in machine output!

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Spurious correlation!

cause and effect relationship between the data. This is known as

spurious correlation!

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Rank correlation: Spearman’s coefficient!

• Used when a distribution is given in terms of rank, rather than actual values!

2 !

R = 1 - 6 ∑ d

2

n(n - 1 ) (given)!

• The rank correlation coefficient can be interpreted in the same way as the ordinary correlation!

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Illustration of Spearman’s rank coefficient!

ratings from A (excellent) to E (unsatisfactory) for their interview

performance and marks out of 100 for a written test. The results for five

interviewees are as follows:!

Calculate the rank correlation coefficient for this data and comment on its

value!

Interviewee! Interview grade! Test score!

!

One! A! 60!

Two ! B! 61!

Three! A! 50!

Four! C! 72!

Five! D! 70!

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Illustration of Spearman’s rank coefficient!

Answer!

Note: Interviewees one and three share the best interview grade. They

therefore share the ranks 1 and 2 giving them 1.5 each!

Interviewee! Rank of Rank of test d! d2!

interview score!

grade!

One ! 1.5! 4! 2.5! 6.25!

Two! 3! 3! 0! 0!

Three! 1.5! 5! 3.5! 12.25!

Four! 4! 1! 3! 9!

Five! 5! 2! 3! 9!

∑= 36.50!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration of Spearman’s rank

coefficient!

2 !

R=1 - 6 ∑ d

2

n(n - 1 )!

= 1 – (6 x 36.50)!

5(25-1)!

= −0.825!

!

• There is a strong negative correlation between the interview grade and the test score!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Regression!

• Expresses the relationship between two sets of data using the equation

of a straight line, !

y = a + bx!

Method 1: Draw a scatter diagram and estimate the line of best fit (not

directly examinable but it is useful to understand this method)!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Regression using scatter

diagram!

• A scatter graph is drawn showing the sales achieved (£000’s) for different

levels of advertising spend (£000)!

Independent

! variable =

Y=a + bx! advertising spend

(£000)!

! Dependent

variable =

sales (£000)!

!

Intercept on Gradient!

y axis!

• This straight line can then be used to forecast the sales for any given level

of advertising spend.!

!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Regression using least squares

method!

• Finds the line of best fit computationally by minimising the sum of the

squares of the distances between the data and the line.!

• i.e. rather than drawing a graph this method uses formulae to calculate the

values of ‘a’ and ‘b’ in the equation of a straight line, y = a + bx!

• We can then forecast the value of ‘y’ (e.g. sales)for any given value of

‘x’ (e.g. advertising spend)!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Regression using least squares method!

b = n∑xy - ∑x ∑y !

2 2

n∑x - (∑x) !

a = y - bx!

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Regression using least squares

method!

Interpolation and extrapolation!

value of y for a given value of x!

interpolation !

extrapolation!

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Regression using least squares

method!

Limitations of linear regression analysis!

foreseeable future!

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Illustration of least squares

method!

Using the data given below, establish the least squares regression line!

(£000)!

! 10! 62!

14! 75!

6! 53!

9! 48!

3! 28!

12! 70!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration of least squares method!

Answer!

! Advertising Sales £000 = xy! x2!

£000 = x! y!

! 10! 62! 620! 100!

14! 75! 1,050! 196!

!

6! 53! 318! 36!

9! 48! 432! 81!

3! 28! 84! 9!

12! 70! 840! 144!

∑x = 54! ∑y = 336! ∑xy = 3,344! ∑x2 = 566!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration of least squares method!

b = n∑xy - ∑x ∑y !

2 2

n∑x - (∑x) !

= 6(3,344) – (54)(336)!

6(566) – (54)2!

= 1,920!

480!

= 4.0!

Calculation of a!

a = y - bx = 336 - 4 54 = 56 - 36 = 20!

6 6!

!

! www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration of least squares method!

Least squares regression line: y = a + bx!

y = 20 + 4x!

Using the regression line ‘y = 20 + 4x’ obtained above, predict the average

daily sales of a supermarket if the monthly advertising expenditure is:!

(ii) £100,000!

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Illustration of least squares

method!

Answer!

prediction!

this prediction!

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Session 11

Forecasting

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Time series analysis!

particularly sales!

sales, which can then be used to forecast the future!

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Time series analysis

components!

• Trend (T): this is a general movement of the time series over a long period

of time!

a shorter but fixed time period!

• Cyclical variation (C): recurring patterns over a long time period, not

generally fixed in nature!

random or chance events!

!

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Time series analysis models!

• Calculation questions tend to focus on the trend and seasonal variation only. These

can be combined together in two ways to give the actual results, i.e. the time series:!

• Some questions also ask for the calculation of the residual (R). In this case, the two

equations above should be extended to include R!

!

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Illustration of residual

calculation!

• The multiplicative model for a time series shows that at a certain time the actual,

trend and seasonal variations are 555, 463 and 1.16. Find the residual at this point.

(Round your answer to four decimal places).!

Answer!

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Seasonal variations!

• For the additive model the seasonal variations will be given as a

positive or negative number. The total of the seasonal variations will

be zero!

percentage or a decimal. The total of the seasonal variations will be

four. !

• If this is not the case, any difference should be spread evenly across

the seasonal variations!

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Illustration of seasonal variations!

Using the multiplicative model the seasonal variations are found to be !

They are subsequently adjusted so that their total = 4. What is the new

value of the average currently valued at 1.04?!

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Illustration of seasonal variations!

Using the multiplicative model the seasonal variations are found to be !

They are subsequently adjusted so that their total = 4. What is the new value

of the average currently valued at 1.04?!

Answer!

www.ultimateaccess.net

!

!

Forecasting with time series!

!

regression (as seen in previous session). This is appropriate if there is a

linear trend!

multiplicative, an adjustment can be made to the trend for the seasonal

variation and the time series can be calculated!

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Illustration using least squares analysis!

• Least squares regression was used to calculate the straight line of best

fit, y= a + bx, for sales against time.!

value and x is the quarter!

! www.ultimateaccess.net

Illustration using least squares analysis!

Step 1!

• Using the least squares regression line the trend, T, can be calculated

for quarter 14!

y = 13.7 + 1.5x!

Step 2!

variation and the sales can be forecast for quarter 14!

!

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Illustration using least squares analysis!

(a) If the seasonal variation is given as a number (positive or negative) we must use

the additive model:!

= 34.7 + 2.4!

= 37.1!

(b) If the seasonal variation is given as a percentage or decimal we must use the

multiplicative model:!

= 34.7 × 1.1!

= 38.17!

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Forecasting with time series!

averages. This is appropriate if there is no linear trend!

multiplicative, an adjustment can be made to the trend for the seasonal

variation and the time series can be calculated (as for method 1)!

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Illustration using moving

averages!

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Illustration using moving averages!

Year! Qtr! Sales (Y)! 4 point 8 point 4 point moving

moving total! moving total! average (T)!

2006! 1! 24.8! -! -!

2! 36.3! -! -!

4! 47.5! 153.1! 311.9! 38.9875!

!

2007! 1! 31.2! 158.8! 322.9! 40.3625!

2! 42.0! 164.1! 336.6! 42.0750!

3! 43.4! 172.5! 353.8! 44.2250!

4! 55.9! 181.3! 369.4! 46.1750!

2008! 1! 40.0! 188.1! 386.8! 48.3500!

2! 48.8! 198.7! 410.6! 51.3250!

3! 54.0! 211.9! 438.5! 54.8125!

4! 69.1! 226.6! -!

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Seasonal adjustment!

• If the seasonal variations (SV) are already known, then it is possible to de-

seasonalise the actual results (TS) to identify the trend (T)!

Multiplicative model!

Additive model!

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Illustration of seasonal adjustment!

Unemployment numbers actually recorded in a town for the second quarter of

20X8 were 2,400. The seasonal variation for this quarter is 0.95. Using the

multiplicative model for seasonal adjustment, calculate the seasonally-

adjusted figure (in whole numbers) for the quarter!

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Illustration of seasonal adjustment!

Unemployment numbers actually recorded in a town for the second quarter of

20X8 were 2,400. The seasonal variation for this quarter is 0.95. Using the

multiplicative model for seasonal adjustment, calculate the seasonally-

adjusted figure (in whole numbers) for the quarter!

Answer!

= 2,400 ÷ 0.95!

= 2,526!

!

www.ultimateaccess.net

Revision!

• Make short notes, and attempt all the Test your Understanding exercises!

• Visit the cimaglobal website to check on any recent articles that may be

relevant!

www.ultimateaccess.net

On the assessment day!

• Make sure that you are thoroughly familiar with the software before the

exam starts !

• Write down all the question numbers on a piece of paper and use a key

to identify questions!

• Flag questions you have not answered and return to

them later !

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On the assessment day!

• your answer can always be changed later by hitting ‘clear’, changing the

answer and then again pressing ‘submit’!

• You will be given a five minute warning before the end of the

exam!

• Make sure before you finish the exam that you have submitted answers to

all questions: guessing if necessary. !

everything: just enough to pass!!

• GOOD LUCK!!

www.ultimateaccess.net

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