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POLL EMBARGOED UNTIL 31ST MARCH 2019, 6 AM EST

Canada - National UltraPoll


31st March 2019
METHODOLOGY ABOUT MAINSTREET
The analysis in this report is based on results of a With 20 years of political experience in all three
survey conducted between March 19th to 25th, levels of government, President and CEO Quito
2019 among a sample of 8501 adults, 18 years Maggi is a respected commentator on international
of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was public affairs.
conducted using automated telephone interviews
(Smart IVR). Respondents were interviewed on Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is Research has provided accurate snapshots of
intended to represent the voting population of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
Canada. government in Alberta, and was the only polling firm
to correctly predict a Liberal majority government
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research in the 2015 federal election. Mainstreet also
and was not sponsored by a third party. accurately predicted the 2018 Ontario election and
was the first to predict that a CAQ majority win in
The sampling frame was derived from both the 2018 Quebec election. Mainstreet Research
a national telephone directory compiled by is a member of the World Association for Public
Mainstreet Research from various commerically Opinion Research and meets international and
available sources and random digit dialing. The Canadian publication standards.
part of the survey that dialed from the directory was
conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian CONTACT INFORMATION
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, In Ottawa:
respondents were asked the additional question Quito Maggi, President
of what region of the country they resided in. quito@mainstreetresearch.ca

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.06% and is In Toronto:
accurate 19 times out of 20. Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
(full methodology appears at the end of this
report) Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
SCHEER CONSERVATIVES TAKE LEAD: CPC 37, LPC 35, NDP 12, GREEN 8

31 March 2019 (Ottawa, ON) – The Conservative Party of Canada have taken the lead nationally, but Justin
Trudeau’s Liberals are still ahead in key regions of the country.

Those are the findings from Mainstreet Research’s latest UltraPoll, a conglomeration of ten provincial polls.
The poll surveyed 8501 Canadians between March 19th and 25th 2019. The poll has a margin of error of +/-
1.06% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The SNC-Lavalin controversy has stung the Liberals but has not knocked them out,” said Quito Maggi,
President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The one question remaining is whether more damage will hit the
Liberals because of this issue.”

Among decided and leaning voters, the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 37.4% (+2.3% since
Mainstreet’s last poll in January), while the the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have 35% support (-2.2%). The
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh have 11.6% support (+0.1%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May at the helm
have 7.9% (+0.7%). The Bloc Quebecois have 3.1% (-0.1%) overall, but have 13.3% in Quebec. The People’s
Party led by Maxime Bernier have 3.8% (-0.4 %).

“The good news for Scheer is that Conservatives have posted gains in every region,” added Maggi. “But the
good news for the Liberals is that despite the drops in support they are still leading in Ontario, Quebec, and
the Atlantic provinces.”

“If an election were held today with these numbers, it would be a minority. The only question is which party
would win.”

The Conservatives have a four point lead in British Columbia, while the Liberals have large leads in Quebec
and the Atlantic provinces. The Liberals lead in Ontario is now three points, down from a six point lead in
January.

The survey also asked whether there should be a change in federal government. 63.5% thought that there
should be a change in government, with 47.6% strongly agreeing.

“Interestingly enough, 21.5% of those who said they were voting Liberal want change,” added Maggi. “If this
number gets larger, or these Liberals decide to stay at home and not vote, then Justin Trudeau would be in
some trouble come October.”

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:


Joseph Angolano, 647-894-1552 - joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote
All Voters
for?

12.7%

1%
3.3% 30.8%

6.6%

2.7%
All Voters

9.5%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning Voters
33.5%

11%
1.2%
3.8%
1.2%
Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party
3.5% 7.9%
Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party

3.1% 34.9%
5.7% Undecided

35%

3%
11.6%
All Voters

9.1%
Decided and Leaning Voters

31.6%

37.4%

Liberals Conservatives New Democratic Party Bloc Quebecois

Greens
Liberals People'
s Party
Conservatives Another
NewParty
DemocraticUndecided
Party

Bloc Quebecois Greens People's Party Another Party


Thinking about the upcoming federal election, do you agree
Time for a Change or disagree
that is time for a change in federal government?
Time for a Change
7.5%
7.5%

14.6%
14.6%

47.6%
47.6%
Time
Time for
for a Change
a Change
14.4%
14.4%

15.9%
15.9%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree


Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree Not Sure
Strongly Disagree Not Sure
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy for the rest
of the year?
breakout by party support and region

Total 16.6% 32.8% 26.4% 16.9% 7.3%

Male 17.5% 30.0% 26.9% 19.7%

Female 15.8% 35.5% 26.0% 14.1% 8.6%


Age and Gender

18-34 16.1% 29.0% 27.6% 18.3% 9.0%

35-49 15.9% 34.9% 25.8% 18.1%

50-64 18.0% 31.9% 26.4% 17.6%

65+ 16.4% 36.6% 25.6% 12.4% 9.0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Total 16.6% Very Pessimistic


32.8% Not Sure
26.4% 16.9%

Liberals 34.1% 44.8% 11.8%

Conservatives 22.1% 37.1% 30.3%


Party Support

Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4%

NDP 11.4% 37.5% 32.1% 11.5%


Liberals 37.3% 43.8% 10.9%

Bloc 8.3% 40.3%


Conservatives 8.0% 36.6% 31.6%33.5% 18.7% 12.8%

NDP 13.8% 41.6% 29.4%


Green 11.8% 35.2% 27.3% 17.8% 7.9%
Bloc 11.2% 42.1% 23.0% 17.0%

People's Party 18.8%


Green 12.7% 31.7%33.5% 30.8% 35.1%
16.7% 8.1%

People's Party 23.3% 23.3% 31.0% 15.7%


Another Party 17.3% 14.2% 42.6% 20.6%
Another Party 17.4% 28.6% 19.2% 17.5% 17.4%

Undecided 24.2% 27.7% 13.1% 29.9%


Undecided 11.7% 27.1% 30.7% 8.2% 22.3%

0 10 0 20
10 2030 30 40
40 5050 60 6070 70
80 90 80100 90 100
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances for
the rest of the year?
breakout by party support and region

Total 22.6% 40.1% 19.9% 11.6%

Male 24.2% 40.4% 18.7% 11.6%

Female 21.0% 39.8% 21.2% 11.6%


Age and Gender

18-34 22.2% 36.9% 20.4% 14.3%

35-49 21.2% 42.2% 20.0% 11.6%

50-64 22.8% 39.9% 21.5% 10.6%

65+ 24.7% 42.0% 17.0% 9.0% 7.3%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic

Total 22.6% Very40.1%


Pessimistic Not Sure
19.9% 11.6%

Liberals 32.2% 42.3% 14.3%

Conservatives 18.1% 39.1% 25.0% 13.1%


Party Support

Total 20.3% 38.7% 22.7% 11.4%

NDP 20.6% 37.8% 21.3% 15.9%


Liberals 37.3% 43.8% 10.9%

Bloc 14.7%
Conservatives 54.1%
8.0% 36.6% 31.6% 16.1%
18.7% 12.0%

NDP 13.8% 41.6% 29.4%


Green 15.7% 38.2% 23.9% 17.8%
Bloc 11.2% 42.1% 23.0% 17.0%

People's Party 12.9%


Green 41.5%
12.7% 31.7% 30.8% 21.6% 16.7% 19.8%
8.1%

People's Party 23.3% 23.3% 31.0% 15.7%


Another Party 25.0% 33.0% 9.8% 26.3%
Another Party 17.4% 28.6% 19.2% 17.5% 17.4%

Undecided 17.1% 32.5% 15.4% 15.5% 19.6%


Undecided 11.7% 27.1% 30.7% 8.2% 22.3%

0 10 0 20
10 2030 30 40
40 5050 60 6070 70
80 90 80100 90 100
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Optimistic Somewhat Optimistic Somewhat Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic Not Sure
Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(all voters)
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 30.8% 28.8% 32.7% 31.2% 29.6% 29.9% 32.8% 26.2% 16.6% 18.7% 35% 35.8% 33.8%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 33.5% 40.4% 26.8% 25.6% 33.5% 39.3% 36.7% 30.4% 60% 46.1% 32.6% 22.4% 27.3%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 9.5% 6.9% 12% 13.4% 9.4% 7.3% 7.1% 15.6% 7.6% 11.4% 10.2% 6.3% 6.1%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 2.7% 3.1% 2.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.4% - - - - 11.5% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 6.6% 5.4% 7.7% 9% 6.2% 5.9% 4.5% 10.7% 2.7% 5.4% 6.1% 6.1% 9.9%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.3% 4.2% 2.4% 4.2% 3.9% 2.6% 2.1% 4.1% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7% 4.3% 2.2%
Another Party 1% 1% 0.9% 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% 1.2% 1.3% 0.5% 1.3%
Undecided 12.7% 10.2% 15.2% 13% 13% 11.7% 13.1% 12.5% 9.4% 14.4% 12% 13% 19.4%
Unweighted Frequency 8501 4746 3755 1756 2219 2410 2116 923 1160 1505 1290 940 2683
Weighted Frequency 8501 4210 4291 2364 2129 2342 1667 1158 961 554 3259 1985 583

(leaning voters with true undecided totals)


All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 33.1% 30.8% 35.3% 33.6% 31.9% 31.9% 35.5% 28.8% 17.9% 20.7% 37.1% 38.3% 37.5%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 35.5% 42.1% 29% 27.3% 36.1% 40.6% 39% 33.1% 62.4% 48.3% 34.2% 23.8% 30.5%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 10.9% 7.7% 14.1% 15.4% 10.9% 8.4% 8.2% 16.9% 8.5% 12.9% 11.6% 8.3% 6.7%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 3% 3.4% 2.5% 2.8% 3.4% 3% 2.5% - - - - 12.7% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 7.5% 6% 8.9% 10% 7.1% 6.6% 5.4% 11.5% 2.9% 6.7% 7.1% 6.9% 11.5%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.6% 4.5% 2.8% 4.6% 4.3% 2.9% 2.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.2% 3% 4.6% 2.5%
Another Party 1.1% 1.2% 1% 1.1% 1.5% 0.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.8% 1.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1.4%
Undecided 5.4% 4.4% 6.5% 5.1% 4.8% 6.1% 5.6% 4.9% 3.6% 6.6% 5.6% 4.6% 9.9%
Unweighted Frequency 8501 4746 3755 1756 2219 2410 2116 923 1160 1505 1290 940 2683
Weighted Frequency 8501 4210 4291 2364 2129 2342 1667 1158 961 554 3259 1985 583

(decided and leaning voters)


All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Liberals led by Justin Trudeau 35% 32.3% 37.7% 35.4% 33.6% 34% 37.7% 30.3% 18.6% 22.2% 39.4% 40.2% 41.7%
Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer 37.4% 44% 31% 28.7% 37.8% 43.2% 41.2% 34.7% 64.7% 51.7% 36.2% 24.9% 33.8%
NDP led by Jagmeet Singh 11.6% 8% 15.1% 16.3% 11.5% 9% 8.7% 17.8% 8.8% 13.9% 12.3% 8.7% 7.5%
Bloc led by Yves-François Blanchet 3.1% 3.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.5% 3.2% 2.6% - - - - 13.3% -
Green Party led by Elizabeth May 7.9% 6.3% 9.5% 10.6% 7.5% 7.1% 5.7% 12.1% 3.1% 7.2% 7.5% 7.3% 12.8%
People's Party led by Maxime Bernier 3.8% 4.7% 2.9% 4.8% 4.5% 3.1% 2.4% 4.5% 4% 3.4% 3.1% 4.8% 2.7%
Another Party 1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.6% 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.5%
Unweighted Frequency 7943 4492 3541 1653 2083 2235 1972 877 1119 1406 1221 897 2423
Weighted Frequency 7943 3933 4010 2209 1989 2188 1558 1082 898 518 3045 1855 545
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about the economy
for the rest of the year?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 16.6% 17.5% 15.8% 16.1% 15.9% 18% 16.4% 15.6% 9.6% 13.2% 18% 19% 17.8%
Somewhat Optimistic 32.8% 30% 35.5% 29% 34.9% 31.9% 36.6% 34.1% 21.8% 28% 31.6% 39.6% 36.3%
Somewhat Pessimistic 26.4% 26.9% 26% 27.6% 25.8% 26.4% 25.6% 27.8% 26% 24.5% 27.2% 26.5% 22.2%
Very Pessimistic 16.9% 19.7% 14.1% 18.3% 18.1% 17.6% 12.4% 15.2% 37.2% 25% 14.9% 9.9% 14.1%
Not Sure 7.3% 5.9% 8.6% 9% 5.3% 6.1% 9% 7.3% 5.5% 9.3% 8.3% 5.1% 9.7%
Unweighted Frequency 8501 4746 3755 1756 2219 2410 2116 923 1160 1505 1290 940 2683
Weighted Frequency 8501 4210 4291 2364 2129 2342 1667 1158 961 554 3259 1985 583

LPC, CPC, NDP, Bloc, Green, People's Party, Another


All Undecided
Trudeau Scheer Singh Blanchet May Bernier Party
Very Optimistic 16.6% 34.1% 6.7% 11.4% 8.3% 11.8% 6.5% 5.3% 5.2%
Somewhat
32.8% 44.8% 22.1% 37.5% 40.3% 35.2% 18.8% 17.3% 24.2%
Optimistic
Somewhat
26.4% 11.8% 37.1% 32.1% 33.5% 27.3% 33.5% 14.2% 27.7%
Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic 16.9% 2.3% 30.3% 11.5% 12.8% 17.8% 35.1% 42.6% 13.1%
Not Sure 7.3% 6.9% 3.8% 7.5% 5.1% 7.9% 6% 20.6% 29.9%
Unweighted
8501 2604 3374 791 123 673 280 98 558
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 8501 2810 3016 929 251 634 306 93 461

Are you optimistic or pessimistic about your personal finances


for the rest of the year?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Very Optimistic 22.6% 24.2% 21% 22.2% 21.2% 22.8% 24.7% 22.6% 17.1% 20.7% 24.7% 23.3% 22.7%
Somewhat Optimistic 40.1% 40.4% 39.8% 36.9% 42.2% 39.9% 42% 40.4% 32.1% 38.4% 38.2% 47% 40.8%
Somewhat Pessimistic 19.9% 18.7% 21.2% 20.4% 20% 21.5% 17% 19.3% 26% 21.4% 19.1% 17.5% 18.2%
Very Pessimistic 11.6% 11.6% 11.6% 14.3% 11.6% 10.6% 9% 12.5% 19.2% 12.6% 11.1% 8.2% 10.5%
Not Sure 5.8% 5.2% 6.4% 6.2% 5% 5.1% 7.3% 5.3% 5.6% 6.9% 6.1% 5% 7.8%
Unweighted Frequency 8501 4746 3755 1756 2219 2410 2116 923 1160 1505 1290 940 2683
Weighted Frequency 8501 4210 4291 2364 2129 2342 1667 1158 961 554 3259 1985 583

LPC, CPC, NDP, Bloc, Green, People's Party, Another


All Undecided
Trudeau Scheer Singh Blanchet May Bernier Party
Very Optimistic 22.6% 32.2% 18.1% 20.6% 14.7% 15.7% 12.9% 25% 17.1%
Somewhat
40.1% 42.3% 39.1% 37.8% 54.1% 38.2% 41.5% 33% 32.5%
Optimistic
Somewhat
19.9% 14.3% 25% 21.3% 16.1% 23.9% 21.6% 9.8% 15.4%
Pessimistic
Very Pessimistic 11.6% 5.1% 13.1% 15.9% 12% 17.8% 19.8% 26.3% 15.5%
Not Sure 5.8% 6.1% 4.6% 4.5% 3.1% 4.3% 4.1% 5.8% 19.6%
Unweighted
8501 2604 3374 791 123 673 280 98 558
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 8501 2810 3016 929 251 634 306 93 461
Thinking about the upcoming federal election, do you agree or disagree
that is time for a change in federal government?
All Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC AB Prairies ON QC Atlantic
Strongly Agree 47.6% 52.2% 43.1% 46.4% 48.4% 49.7% 45.3% 46.4% 70.1% 61.5% 45.1% 38.5% 44.1%
Somewhat Agree 15.9% 14.2% 17.6% 17.7% 16.5% 14.1% 15.2% 20.3% 9.1% 13.1% 13.9% 20.6% 16.4%
Somewhat Disagree 14.4% 13.9% 14.9% 13.7% 16.3% 14.3% 13.3% 12.1% 7.7% 8.3% 14.6% 20.5% 14.2%
Strongly Disagree 14.6% 13.7% 15.4% 13.8% 12.4% 14.7% 18.2% 13.3% 9.4% 9.8% 18.4% 12.6% 15.1%
Not Sure 7.5% 6% 9% 8.4% 6.4% 7.2% 8.1% 7.8% 3.7% 7.3% 7.9% 7.8% 10.3%
Unweighted Frequency 8501 4746 3755 1756 2219 2410 2116 923 1160 1505 1290 940 2683
Weighted Frequency 8501 4210 4291 2364 2129 2342 1667 1158 961 554 3259 1985 583

LPC, CPC, NDP, Bloc, Green, People's Party, Another


All Undecided
Trudeau Scheer Singh Blanchet May Bernier Party
Strongly Agree 47.6% 7.3% 85.4% 44.5% 57.5% 44.8% 72.9% 50.9% 33.3%
Somewhat Agree 15.9% 14.4% 10.4% 31.9% 17.3% 24.6% 13.5% 12.6% 18.8%
Somewhat Disagree 14.4% 30.9% 1.5% 12.7% 13.4% 17.5% 5.6% 3.2% 6.7%
Strongly Disagree 14.6% 39.8% 0.8% 2.7% 6.1% 3.7% 3.4% 12.1% 2.2%
Not Sure 7.5% 7.7% 2% 8.4% 5.8% 9.3% 4.6% 21.2% 39%
Unweighted
8501 2604 3374 791 123 673 280 98 558
Frequency
Weighted Frequency 8501 2810 3016 929 251 634 306 93 461
Full Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, Somewhat Optimistic
which party would you vote for? Somewhat Pessimistic
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Very Pessimistic
Trudeau Not Sure
Conservative Party of Canada led by
Andrew Scheer Are you optimistic or pessimistic about
New Democratic Party of Canada led by your personal finances in the coming
Jagmeet Singh year?
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth Very Optimistic
May Somewhat Optimistic
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Somewhat Pessimistic
Bernier Very Pessimistic
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois Not Sure
Blanchet
(only given as an option in Quebec) Thinking about the upcoming federal
Another Party election, do you agree or disagree
Undecided that is time for a change in federal
government?
And which party are you leaning Strongly Agree
towards? (only asked of respondents Somewhat Agree
who were undecided in Q1) Somewhat Disagree
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Strongly Disagree
Trudeau Not Sure
Conservative Party of Canada led by
Andrew Scheer [Provincial related questions were asked
New Democratic Party of Canada led by here - refer to the individual provincial
Jagmeet Singh reports for those questions]
Green Party of Canada led by Elizabeth
May What is your gender?
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Male
Bernier Female
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois
Blanchet (only given as an option in What is your age group?
Quebec) 18 to 34 years of age
Another Party 35 to 49 years of age
Undecided 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Are you optimistic or pessimistic about
the economy in the coming year?
Very Optimistic
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted between March 19th,
2019 and March 25th, 2019, among a sample of 8501 adults, 18 years of age or older, living
in Canada. The survey was conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were
interviewed on both landlines and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the
voting population of Canada.

This survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and has not been sponsored by any third-
party organization.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by
Mainstreet Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing.
The survey that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian
provinces. In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question
of what region of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone
number. The calls were staggered over times of day and two days to maximize the chances
of making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as
possible across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. Questions are asked as they appear in the release document. If
a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is added in parenthesis
preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 1.06% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are
higher in each subsample.

The margins of error for each subsample is as following: Males: +/- 1.42%, Females: +/- 1.6%,
18-34 age group: +/- 2.34%, 35-49 age group: +/- 2.08%, 50-64 age group: +/- 2%, 65+
age group: +/- 2.13%, British Columbia: +/- 3.23%, Alberta: +/- 2.88%, Prairies: +/- 2.53%,
Ontario: +/- 2.73%, Quebec: +/- 3.2%, Atlantic Canada: +/- 1.89%.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and
practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of
opinion polls. Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of
error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.