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Hoping for peace, preparing for war: Libya

on brink of Tripoli showdown


The movement of forces loyal to rival governments across western Libya
throws Tripoli back under the spotlight as the potential focus of the country's
next civil conflict

Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar (L) and Fayez al-Serraj, leader of the
Government of National Accord (AFP)

By Tom Westcott-31 March 2019


After taking large areas of southern Libya and two key oil facilities earlier
this year, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, operating under Libya's eastern-
based government, has pulled his Libyan National Army (LNA) forces back
from the south towards western Libya, in a move widely seen as paving the
way for an assault on Tripoli.
We are ready, willing and able to take over Sirte, and we are just awaiting
orders to advance
- LNA fighter
A military build-up of LNA forces south of Sirte in recent weeks has
prompted previously quiet factions in other western Libyan towns to openly
pledge support to Haftar, threatening Tripoli from several directions.
Even while the international community is still trying to broker a peaceful
solution, Tripoli militias are preparing to defend the capital.
On Wednesday, a convoy of around 100 military vehicles was seen heading
out of the capital on the road leading towards the town of Tarhuna, according
to Ahmed, a local resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"There were about 100 of them. They were militia vehicles, not army vehicles,
but I don't know which militias," he said.
Most Tripoli militias currently support the UN-backed Government of
National Accord (GNA), which sits in the capital. The GNA also has the
support of the Misrata-based Bunyan al-Marsous (BAM) forces, which
continue to secure Sirte after leading the battle to defeat the Islamic State (IS)
there in 2016 and view Haftar as a long-standing foe.
Former BAM spokesman Major General Mohamed Al-Ghossri has already
stated that any LNA incursion on Sirte would be treated as a declaration of
war.
"Bunyan al-Marsous and all of Misrata stand with the GNA," he told MEE.
"We are always ready to fight against any possible aggression in Sirte and
have not lowered the threat alert, or our duty of providing security and
surveillance there, since 2016."
Ghossri said no reinforcement troops had yet been sent to Sirte, but he
confirmed that Misrata had enough forces to defend its present territories,
including a 250 km stretch of coastal highway.
Tripoli threatened from east and west
Following his southern advances this year, Haftar has pulled most of his
forces back towards Sirte, in a move widely viewed as paving the way for an
eventual assault on Tripoli.
What we expect here is that the LNA will keep us occupied with a little
fighting around Sirte, so we are unable to help defend Tripoli
- Hassan, BAM fighter
An LNA fighter, speaking on condition of anonymity from a military position
between Sebha and Sirte, told MEE earlier this week: "We are ready, willing
and able to take over Sirte, and we are just awaiting orders to advance."
However, BAM fighter Hassan, manning a strategic checkpoint at the village
of AbuGrain, 100 km from Misrata and 150 km from Sirte, told MEE that the
threat of clashes in Sirte was a red herring. A greater threat, he claimed, was
posed by LNA troop movements towards the inland rural towns of Tarhuna
and Bani Walid where, he said, Haftar had been gathering ideological
support.
"Yes, Haftar probably will take control of Tripoli, not with these troops
moving from the east, but rather with troops from western Libya," he said.
"I'm unhappy with the GNA's understanding of the current situation. What
we expect here is that the LNA will keep us occupied with a little fighting
around Sirte, so we are unable to help defend Tripoli, which will be taken by
LNA military operations coming from western Libya."
Haftar has a growing support base across western Libya from towns left
disenchanted by post-2011 chaos and disillusioned by the GNA which, in three
years, has failed to have much meaningful impact beyond the capital.
Growing support for LNA in western Libya
Although a key Tarhuna militia appears to be siding with the LNA to reach
the town, Haftar's forces would need to pass through the town of Bani Walid,
which has been a no-go area for any government forces since a brief but
bloody civil conflict with Misrata in 2012.
The town now functions as a largely independent entity and bastion of pro-
Gaddafi sentiment which freely flies the plain green flag that represented
Libya under 42 years. Its present allegiance remains unclear but Bani Walid
has long disassociated itself from any Tripoli-based powers and is likely to
align with any forces against Misrata.
While Tripoli's militia forces head to Tarhuna, further west, Haftar's support
base is also consolidating. In the past fortnight, the military council of the
mountain town of Zintan has pledged support to the LNA, although several
senior Zintanis and their associated militias currently remain aligned with the
GNA.
The fight on Libya's western front
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Zintan - famed for capturing Saif al-Islam Gaddafi in 2011, keeping him
imprisoned for six years while ignoring attempts by the International
Criminal Court (ICC) to have him tried for war crimes, before eventually
releasing him in late 2017 - was formerly aligned with the LNA until the
relationship deteriorated early last year.
The LNA also has full control over the al-Wattiyah military airbase west of
Tripoli, thanks to Zintan gaining the upper hand in a conflict with Misrata
over the facility in 2015.
Another powerful former revolutionary mountain town of Rujban and the
small town of Sorman, lying 60km west of Tripoli, have also pledged support
to the LNA.
Although to the outside observer allegiances of such technically small towns
may seem unimportant, a strong network of local and tribal support is key to
Haftar's potential success in gaining more territory in western Libya and
crucial to any progress towards the capital.
The eastern government and its LNA forces also have firm pockets of support
inside the capital, including in districts mercilessly crushed by a former
Tripoli-based government in 2015 for voicing support of Haftar.
There even appears to be some LNA support to the east of Tripoli, with a
civilian group in the strategic coastal town of al-Khoms, lying between
Misrata and Tripoli, also declaring their support for LNA forces this week. If
this move is supported militarily, local forces from al-Khoms, which control a
key checkpoint on the main coastal highway, could strike a strategic divide
between Misrata and Tripoli.
Much of Libya has been left disenchanted by failing democracy. To some, a
viable future under a strong, unified and stable leadership, holds appeal
Most other former revolutionary towns that supported the 2011 uprising
against Muammar Gaddafi, including the Amazigh coastal enclave of Zuwara,
remain largely with the GNA, at present. However, with post-2011 country-
wide discontent, many western Libyan towns increasingly stand divided,
according to Tripoli resident Ahmed.
It is not surprising that Haftar has been able to secure support. Neglected and
sporadically isolated by ongoing civil wars, residents in western towns outside
Tripoli have grown tired of waiting for the GNA to make meaningful
improvements on the ground.
Haftar, who has presented himself as a "strongman" capable of leading
military victories, represents, to some, a potential solution to the troubled
country that post-2011 Libya has become.
Although there are fears of another Gaddafi-style autocratic leader, much of
Libya has been left disenchanted by failing democracy and, to some, a viable
future under a strong, unified and stable leadership holds appeal.
Is a Tripoli war inevitable?
Although Haftar has allegedly received backing from France, Russia, the
UAE and neighbouring Egypt, much of the international community,
including the UN and the US, stand against him.
Despite, or perhaps because of, Haftar's increasingly popular appeal, such
external powers are continuing to push for negotiations, settlements and
future general elections, which have been impossible to hold for the past five
years. Such efforts to broker a peaceful unity have consistently failed.
Tripoli's last major conflict was in 2014, sparked by rival political parties
dissatisfied with the outcome of Libya's last national elections. Fighting
destroyed key civilian infrastructure - including the international airport -
and left the country with two rival governments, parliaments and military
forces.
In February 2019, Libyans carry a national flag in Tripoli to mark the
upcoming eighth anniversary of the Libyan revolution (AFP)
Tensions over the capital have existed for five years, but military forces loyal
to rival governments were kept busy with local conflicts and battling
militant groups, including IS and al-Qaeda affiliates, putting Tripoli on a
back-burner.
The GNA, boosted more by international recognition than local support, is
ruling an increasingly compact area of western Libya, after recent LNA
advances left the eastern government technically controlling the lion's share of
Libya's geographical landmass, although not its key western cities.
Despite recent troop movements and political machinations, the reality has
long been that Libya's vast size and small - about six million - population, has
proved to be an insurmountable obstacle for any of the country's successive
faltering governments, or militia-heavy armed forces, to assume full control.
Both governments still have limited forces comprised largely of semi-
autonomous militias with fluid and unreliable allegiances. But Libyan
civilians in western and eastern Libya told MEE they believed that Haftar
now had enough military power and on-the-ground support to retake the
capital.
Divided loyalties
The 2011 uprising which overthrew Gaddafi has left an eight-year legacy of
mistrust. Former enemies have had to grudgingly ally with one another to face
up to new foes, whether neighbouring towns or IS.
Present allegiances are often as fluid as past ones, most recently seen when the
southern Tuareg tribe, formerly apparently loyal to the GNA, defected to the
eastern government within days, during Hafter's southern advances.
Sirte, largely considered pro-Gaddafi, was liberated from barbaric IS rule by
forces from Misrata, a sworn enemy since 2011. Although Misrata still has
military control over the town, a senior Sirte official, who only gave his name
as Mohamed, told MEE that, in reality, most residents supported the eastern
government and the LNA, not least because the majority of the town's
population is from the same Ferjani tribe as Haftar.

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After failing to come to the aid of its southern supporters during Haftar's
advances this year, the GNA appears to be trying to cobble together a more
effective fighting force, with GNA president Fayez al-Serraj recently
appointing former Gaddafi-era commander Salam Juha to the post of deputy
commander of its official armed forces, such as they are.
Misrata-born Juha defected from Gaddafi’s military in 2011 to lead Misrata's
revolutionary fighters, but later fell from favour for refusing to support
Misrata's 2012 offensive against Bani Walid. He returned to Libya around a
year ago after living for several years living in the UAE, a state at present
backing Haftar.
Mistrusted by his home city, which provides the BAM forces upon which the
GNA will rely to defend their easternmost borders against any LNA advances,
Juha's appointment is controversial. Locally, Juha is also widely suspected of
actually being politically aligned with Haftar, rather than with the GNA
whose forces he is supposed to lead.
Although Haftar has not made any statement regarding his plans to move
militarily on Tripoli, following another round of peace talks last week, he has
appointed one of his top military personnel, Brigadier Abdulsalam Alhassi, to
the role of Tripoli Operations Room Commander, an indication that he is not
planning to back down.
As Libya again stands on uncertain footing, residents report that, across the
capital, multiple checkpoints have been erected, mostly manned by local
militias, believed to be an attempt to secure the capital from an increasingly
real threat of a new civil war in western Libya.
Posted by Thavam