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Democrats’ 2004 candidate for vicepresident, once mused that there are “two Americas” – rich and poor. That cliché can be applied locally: There are “two Chicagos” – white and non-white. In a sample ballot prepared by the Cook County Democratic Party, which features President Barack Obama’s photo, county chairman Joe Berrios, the candidate for assessor, proclaims that Obama’s “work has just begun…keep his agenda on track.” And, Berrios adds, “the Republican smear machine is fully operational…(and) will turn back the progress” of Obama. That literature is already in the dumpster behind every Northwest Side Democratic headquarters. “With all due respect,” said one area Democratic committeeman, Obama “has become poison among working-class voters. The level of hostility is astounding.” Obama, in his inaugural address, said it “took a lot of blood, sweat and tears to get to where we are today.” On Nov. 3, after a night of blood and tears, Democrats will begin to sweat the 2012 election, when Obama will be on the ballot. There are two salient truths: First, in 2010, Illinois’ gargantuan 2008 Obama vote of 3,419,348 will shrivel. 2008’s turnout of 5.57 million will regress to a normal off-year turnout of 3.6 million. In Cook County, the 2008 turnout of 2.2 million will decline to 2006’s 1.35 million. That means far fewer Democratic votes.
The 2008 Senate race was won by Dick Durbin (D) 3. Indiana. In the U. while Bill Brady (R) is slightly above 40 percent.2 Second. Illinois. North Dakota. it would surely prevail. but is ahead of Giannoulias. Nevada. If voters had a “Return to Sender” line. Colorado. but if half the undecided – 5-8 percent -. where turnout will be around 3.348-2. The undecided is larger – 10-15 percent. They will hold open Republican seats in New Hampshire. and Obama beat John McCain (R) 3. Kirk. Ohio. and Green Party candidate Rich Whitney is getting 3-5 percent. “undecided” voters invariably break against the incumbent or the incumbent party. the “magic number” is 1.break for Brady. West Virginia and Wisconsin.5 million. he wins.8 percent).9 .615. Kansas and Kentucky. is mired in the low 40s. Kirk wins if the gets half the undecideds.419. Here are my Nov.031. Quinn has been relentlessly blasting Brady.S.179 (61. 2 predictions: U.621 (67. Missouri. Senate: Democrats have a 59-41 majority. incumbent Pat Quinn (D) is still below 40 percent in most polls. Alaska. In Illinois. Senate race. In the governor’s race. The Green and Libertarian Party candidates will amass 5-8 percent. Independent Scott Lee Cohen is polling in the 10-15 percent range.S.6 million.520. Both candidates have significant character flaws. Republicans will gain nine Democratic seats: Arkansas. both contenders – Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D) – are damaged goods. like Brady. and neither has polled anywhere near 50 percent. Prediction: It will be a 50-50 Senate. Pennsylvania.844-1.
while Giannoulias needs just 47 percent of the Obama vote.000. U.4 percent).000-vote win. Giannoulias is fervently embracing Obama. losing 50 seats. My prediction: 250- .S.000 (39 percent).000 votes (41 percent).369.000 – a 15. Governor: Brady will replicate Judy Baar Topinka’s 2006 vote of 1. or 1. 42 Democratic seats are rated as turnovers. Prediction: In a 3.442 votes. Kirk needs 78 percent of the McCain vote. A worst-case scenario: A hefty Republican majority of 255-180. but Kirk loses unless 500.315.3 percent). and add another 150. an auspicious Republican year.000 votes (17. Peter Fitzgerald (R) beat flawed incumbent Carol Moseley Braun (D) by 98.545 votes (50. Surveys indicate that Republicans are more “energized” than Democrats. House: The Democrats’ 255-178 majority will evaporate.8 million don’t vote. My prediction: Kirk will lose Cook County by 375.7 million turnout. who is cutting TV ads for him. to Quinn’s 1.000 Obama backers defect to Kirk.264 votes. And another 53 Democratic seats are at risk. Brady will beat Quinn by 80. A best-case scenario for Democrats: A 230-205 minority. Another 34 are rated as “toss-ups” – an unenviable position for any incumbent. A Republican will win the contests for state treasurer and comptroller. the five collar counties by 164. Kirk must do likewise. and prevail elsewhere by 390.5 percent). In 1998. and losing Cook County by 394. At present. To win in 2010. carrying the 96 Downstate counties by 328.440.000 from his Downstate base. with Cohen getting over 650.161 votes. including three in Illinois – giving the Republicans 220 seats. That’s possible.
Republicans hold a 82-63 majority. Kankakee). In Illinois. A sidelight: At present. five seats are in play. incumbent Debbie Halvorson (D). incumbent Bill Foster (D). who was unopposed in 2008. an astounding Republican gain of 72. On the cusp are the 8th (McHenry County) and 10th (Cook County’s North Shore) districts. is in trouble. After 2010.4 185. respectively. In the far south suburban 14th District (Fox River Valley: Aurora to Elgin). The Republicans will likely gain 24 seats in the region. with 145 congressional seats. Ottawa. It’s all about Obama. He will lose to Randy Hultgren (R). the Republican ascendancy looks permanent. She will lose to Adam Kinzinger (R). In the rural 11th District (Joliet. and the end of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s reign. The key: In 2010. That means Democrats that won in 2008 by under 60 percent are in jeopardy. along the Mississippi River. where Democrats have a 12-7 edge in the congressional delegation. almost every white-majority southern district will be Republican. Since 106 is nearly half the House majority. represented by Melissa Bean (D) and Kirk. He will lose to Bobby Schilling (R). giving them a 106-39 majority. has also been pro-Obama. In the western Illinois 17th District. A new “Solid South” has emerged. and every Republican’s will spike by a like amount. pro-Obama incumbent Phil Hare (D). who won with 58 percent in 2008. which meanders from Rock Island to Decatur. in the 14 southern states. every Democrat’s vote will decline by 5-10 percent. The pro- . will pay a price for her Obama fealty. Democrats will be relegated to minority districts. who won with 58 percent in 2008.
Illinois Senate: With their 37-22 majority. . Deanna Demuzio (49th). At least 12 Democratic seats are in play. from Elgin. who ran as an Obama champion.5 Obama Bean won by 61 percent in 2008. Abner Mikva (D) beat incumbent Sam Young (R) by 201 votes. Prediction: Dold wins.802-vote (53 percent) win in 2008 over Dan Seals. It will be equally close in 2010. A. more than $1 million will be spent by both parties to capture Jim DeLeo’s seat. Prediction: Democratic organizations in the 45th and 38th wards will not deliver more than 55 percent for Mulroe. Mulroe is being excoriated for holding “three patronage jobs” generating $150. to which Mulroe was appointed. Doherty wins by more than 500 votes. Wilhelmi (43rd). Seals faces Bob Dold (R). the Republican. At least 6 Democratic seats are at risk: Mike Bond (31st). from Joliet. shrinking the imperious Madigan’s majority to 61-57. and appointed John Mulroe (10th). That will be history. and the 17th District (Glenview) district of outgoing Republican Beth Coulson could flip. Senate President John Cullerton and his Democrats have a veto-proof three-fifths majority. Back in 1976. Prediction: Republicans will gain a net of 9 seats.000 in income. Kirk eked out a 14. is being hammered for his pro-Daley council votes. from Kankakee. The next Senate will be 32-27 Democratic. Illinois House: Speaker Mike Madigan’s (D) 70-48 majority will take a hit. from Chicago’s Northwest Side.J. Toi Hutchinson (40th). Alderman Brian Doherty (41st). Mike Noland (22nd). from Lake County. from Carlinville. As detailed in last week’s column. and is trying to distance himself from the president. the question is how much.
a former state senator who has run a valiant campaign. White committeemen will ignore Berrios. Alderman Toni Preckwinkle. He needs 25 percent of the black vote. In a one-on-one. Claypool will fall short by 50. Prediction: Preckwinkle wins with over 60 percent. and have white committeemen deliver 40-50 percent in their wards. and has failed to construct a viable coalition of anti-Obama conservatives and proObama (but anti-Machine) liberals. . and Hispanics 7 percent. blacks comprise 30 percent of the registered vote. His strategy is to appeal to the party’s black and Hispanic base. is clinging tightly to Obama’s cloak.com.” said Republican Roger Keats. is a black woman with no scandals and no tie to Stroger. Claypool has failed to ignite voters. Berrios.russstewart. “She will raise taxes.479. Claypool would win. WORD COUNT: 1. E-mail Russ@russstewart. and won’t get it.” said the committeeman.6 Cook County Assessor: Mayor Rich Daley’s retirement sucked the oxygen out of Independent Forrest Claypool’s campaign. the Democratic nominee. Prediction: In Cook County.000 votes.com or visit his website at www. But Republicans won’t benefit. Cook County Board President: The putrid stink of Todd Stroger’s (D) reign is wafting away. But with the Republican drawing 15 percent. “All Joe (Berrios) cares about is electing himself. of Puerto Rican heritage.
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