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Aftershock

An aftershock is a smaller earthquake that follows a larger earthquake, in the same area of the main shock, caused as the

displaced crust adjusts to the effects of the main shock. Large earthquakes can have hundreds to thousands of

instrumentally detectable aftershocks, which steadily decrease in magnitude and frequency according to known laws. In

some earthquakes the main rupture happens in two or more steps, resulting in multiple main shocks. These are known as

doublet earthquakes, and in general can be distinguished from aftershocks in having similar magnitudes and nearly

identical seismic waveforms.

Contents

Distribution of aftershocks

Aftershock size and frequency with time

Omori's law

Båth's law

Gutenberg–Richter law

Effect of aftershocks

Foreshocks

Modeling

Psychology

References

External links

Distribution of aftershocks

Most aftershocks are located over the full area of fault rupture and either occur along the fault plane itself or along other

faults within the volume affected by the strain associated with the main shock. Typically, aftershocks are found up to a

distance equal to the rupture length away from the fault plane.

The pattern of aftershocks helps confirm the size of area that slipped during the main shock. In the case of the 2004

Indian Ocean earthquake and the 2008 Sichuan earthquake the aftershock distribution shows in both cases that the

epicenter (where the rupture initiated) lies to one end of the final area of slip, implying strongly asymmetric rupture

propagation.

Aftershocks rates and magnitudes follow several well-established empirical laws.

Omori's law

The frequency of aftershocks decreases roughly with the reciprocal of time after the main shock. This empirical relation

was first described by Fusakichi Omori in 1894 and is known as Omori's law.[1] It is expressed as

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4/6/2019 Aftershock - Wikipedia

modified version of Omori's law, now commonly used, was proposed by Utsu in 1961.[2][3]

where p is a third constant which modifies the decay rate and typically falls in the range 0.7–1.5.

According to these equations, the rate of aftershocks decreases quickly with time. The rate of aftershocks is proportional to

the inverse of time since the mainshock and this relationship can be used to estimate the probability of future aftershock

occurrence.[4] Thus whatever the probability of an aftershock are on the first day, the second day will have 1/2 the

probability of the first day and the tenth day will have approximately 1/10 the probability of the first day (when p is equal

to 1). These patterns describe only the statistical behavior of aftershocks; the actual times, numbers and locations of the

aftershocks are stochastic, while tending to follow these patterns. As this is an empirical law, values of the parameters are

obtained by fitting to data after a mainshock has occurred, and they imply no specific physical mechanism in any given

case. But the Utsu-Omori law has also been obtained theoretically, as the solution of a differential equation describing the

evolution of the aftershock activity[5], where the interpretation of the evolution equation is based on the idea of

deactivation of the faults in the vicinity of the main shock of the earthquake. Also, previously Utsu-Omori law was

obtained from a nucleation process[6]. Results show that the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks is separable

into a dependence on space and a dependence on time. And more recently, through the application of a fractional solution

of the reactive differential equation[7], a double power law model shows the number density decay in several possible

ways, among which is a particular case the Utsu-Omori Law.

Båth's law

The other main law describing aftershocks is known as Båth's Law[8][9] and this states that the difference in magnitude

between a main shock and its largest aftershock is approximately constant, independent of the main shock magnitude,

typically 1.1–1.2 on the Moment magnitude scale.

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4/6/2019 Aftershock - Wikipedia

Gutenberg–Richter law

Aftershock sequences also typically follow the Gutenberg–Richter law of

size scaling, which refers to the relationship between the magnitude and

total number of earthquakes in a region in a given time period.

Where:

is magnitude

Gutenberg–Richter law for b = 1

and are constants

In summary, there are more small aftershocks and fewer large

aftershocks.

Effect of aftershocks

Aftershocks are dangerous because they are usually unpredictable, can be of a

large magnitude, and can collapse buildings that are damaged from the main

Magnitude of the Central Italy

shock. Bigger earthquakes have more and larger aftershocks and the sequences

earthquake of August 2016 (red dot)

can last for years or even longer especially when a large event occurs in a and aftershocks (which continued to

seismically quiet area; see, for example, the New Madrid Seismic Zone, where occur after the period shown here)

events still follow Omori's law from the main shocks of 1811–1812. An

aftershock sequence is deemed to have ended when the rate of seismicity drops

back to a background level; i.e., no further decay in the number of events with time can be detected.

Land movement around the New Madrid is reported to be no more than 0.2 mm (0.0079 in) a year,[10] in contrast to the

San Andreas Fault which averages up to 37 mm (1.5 in) a year across California.[11] Aftershocks on the San Andreas are

now believed to top out at 10 years while earthquakes in New Madrid are considered aftershocks nearly 200 years after the

1812 New Madrid earthquake.[12]

Foreshocks

Some scientists have tried to use foreshocks to help predict upcoming earthquakes, having one of their few successes with

the 1975 Haicheng earthquake in China. On the East Pacific Rise however, transform faults show quite predictable

foreshock behaviour before the main seismic event. Reviews of data of past events and their foreshocks showed that they

have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults.[13]

Modeling

Seismologists use tools such as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence model (ETAS) to study cascading aftershocks.[14]

Psychology

Following a large earthquake and aftershocks, many people have reported feeling "phantom earthquakes" when in fact no

earthquake was taking place. This condition, known as "earthquake sickness" is thought to be related to motion sickness,

and usually goes away as seismic activity tails off.[15][16]

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References

1. Omori, F. (1894). "On the aftershocks of earthquakes" (http://repository.dl.itc.u-tokyo.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2261/289

44/1/jcs702001.pdf) (PDF). Journal of the College of Science, Imperial University of Tokyo. 7: 111–200.

2. Utsu, T. (1961). "A statistical study of the occurrence of aftershocks". Geophysical Magazine. 30: 521–605.

3. Utsu, T.; Ogata, Y.; Matsu'ura, R.S. (1995). "The centenary of the Omori formula for a decay law of aftershock activity"

(https://web.archive.org/web/20150716033502/http://www-solid.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~hassei/2011/papers/utsu_et_al19

95.pdf) (PDF). Journal of Physics of the Earth. 43: 1–33. Archived from the original (http://www-solid.eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.

jp/~hassei/2011/papers/utsu_et_al1995.pdf) (PDF) on 2015-07-16.

4. Quigley, M. "New Science update on 2011 Christchurch Earthquake for press and public: Seismic fearmongering or

time to jump ship" (https://web.archive.org/web/20120129200558/http://www.chcheqjournal.com/2011/science-update

-2011-christchurch-earthquake-press-public-seismic-fear-mongering-time-jump-ship/). Christchurch Earthquake

Journal. Archived from the original (http://www.chcheqjournal.com/2011/science-update-2011-christchurch-earthquak

e-press-public-seismic-fear-mongering-time-jump-ship/) on 29 January 2012. Retrieved 25 January 2012.

5. Guglielmi, A.V. (2016). "Interpretation of the Omori law". Izv., Phys. Solid Earth. 52: 785–786. arXiv:1604.07017 (http

s://arxiv.org/abs/1604.07017). doi:10.1134/S1069351316050165 (https://doi.org/10.1134%2FS1069351316050165).

6. Shaw, Bruce (1993). "Generalized Omori law for aftershocks and foreshocks from a simple dynamics". Geophysical

Research Letters. 20: 907–910. doi:10.1029/93GL01058 (https://doi.org/10.1029%2F93GL01058).

7. Sánchez, Ewin; Vega, Pedro (2018). "Modelling temporal decay of aftershocks by a solution of the fractional reactive

equation". Applied Mathematics and Computation. 340: 24–49. doi:10.1016/j.amc.2018.08.022 (https://doi.org/10.101

6%2Fj.amc.2018.08.022).

8. Richter, Charles F., Elementary seismology (San Francisco, California, USA: W. H. Freeman & Co., 1958), page 69.

9. Båth, Markus (1965). "Lateral inhomogeneities in the upper mantle". Tectonophysics. 2 (6): 483–514.

Bibcode:1965Tectp...2..483B (http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1965Tectp...2..483B). doi:10.1016/0040-1951(65)90003-

X (https://doi.org/10.1016%2F0040-1951%2865%2990003-X).

10. Elizabeth K. Gardner (2009-03-13). "New Madrid fault system may be shutting down" (http://www.physorg.com/news1

56169464.html). physorg.com. Retrieved 2011-03-25.

11. Wallace, Robert E. "Present-Day Crustal Movements and the Mechanics of Cyclic Deformation" (https://web.archive.o

rg/web/20061216222919/http://education.usgs.gov/california/pp1515/chapter7.html). The San Andreas Fault System,

California. Archived from the original (http://education.usgs.gov/california/pp1515/chapter7.html) on 2006-12-16.

Retrieved 2007-10-26.

12. "Earthquakes Actually Aftershocks Of 19th Century Quakes; Repercussions Of 1811 And 1812 New Madrid Quakes

Continue To Be Felt" (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091104132652.htm). Science Daily. Archived (h

ttps://web.archive.org/web/20091108033329/https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/11/091104132652.htm)

from the original on 8 November 2009. Retrieved 2009-11-04.

13. McGuire JJ, Boettcher MS, Jordan TH (2005). "Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on

East Pacific Rise transform faults". Nature. 434 (7032): 445–7. Bibcode:2005Natur.434..457M (http://adsabs.harvard.

edu/abs/2005Natur.434..457M). doi:10.1038/nature03377 (https://doi.org/10.1038%2Fnature03377). PMID 15791246

(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15791246).

14. For example: Helmstetter, Agnès; Sornette, Didier (October 2003). "Predictability in the Epidemic-Type Aftershock

Sequence model of interacting triggered seismicity". Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 108 (B10): 2482ff.

arXiv:cond-mat/0208597 (https://arxiv.org/abs/cond-mat/0208597). Bibcode:2003JGRB..108.2482H (http://adsabs.har

vard.edu/abs/2003JGRB..108.2482H). doi:10.1029/2003JB002485 (https://doi.org/10.1029%2F2003JB002485). "As

part of an effort to develop a systematic methodology for earthquake forecasting, we use a simple model of seismicity

based on interacting events which may trigger a cascade of earthquakes, known as the Epidemic-Type Aftershock

Sequence model (ETAS)."

15. Japanese researchers diagnose hundreds of cases of 'earthquake sickness' (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/

06/20/japanese-researchers-diagnose-hundreds-of-cases-of-earthquake-si/), Daily Telegraph, 20 June 2016

16. After the earthquake: why the brain gives phantom quakes (https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2016/nov/06/aft

er-the-earthquake-why-the-brain-gives-phantom-quakes), The Guardian, 6 November 2016

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aftershock 4/5

4/6/2019 Aftershock - Wikipedia

External links

Earthquake Aftershocks Not What They Seemed (https://web.archive.org/web/20110304150201/http://www.livescienc

e.com/environment/060607_quake_aftershocks.html) at Live Science

Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License; additional terms may apply. By using this

site, you agree to the Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Wikipedia® is a registered trademark of the Wikimedia

Foundation, Inc., a non-profit organization.

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