You are on page 1of 8
COMPANY NOTE April 8, 2019 Apple, Inc. (AAPL) Overweight Teen Survey: iPhone Ownership Up, With
COMPANY NOTE
April
8,
2019
Apple, Inc. (AAPL)
Overweight
Teen Survey: iPhone Ownership Up, With 'Intent to Buy' Flat; Reit OW & $201 PT
CONCLUSION
Apple's share of smartphone ownership was up slightly in the Piper Jaffray Taking Stock
With Teens survey. Of ~8,000 respondents, 83% have an iPhone, the highest percentage
we have seen in our survey. The iPhone may have room to move higher, however, with
86% of teens anticipating their next phone to be an iPhone, tied for the highest ever in our
survey (flat from Fall-18). Android was the runner up with 9%, down from 10% in the fall.
The Apple Watch was the top smartwatch among teens, garnering 20% share, with the
Samsung Gear next on the list at 2%. 22% of teens plan to purchase an Apple Watch in
the next six months, down slightly from 23% in the fall. Overall, we view the survey data as
a sign that Apple's place as the dominant device brand among teens remains well intact.
Reiterate OW & $201 PT.
PRICE: US$197.00
TARGET: US$201.00
15x CY20E EPS of $13.39
Michael J. Olson
Sr Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
612
303-6419, michael.j.olson@pjc.com
Yung Kim
Research Analyst, Piper Jaffray & Co.
212
284-9312, yung.r.kim@pjc.com
Changes
Rating
Price Tgt
FY19E Rev (mil)
FY20E Rev (mil)
FY19E EPS
FY20E EPS
Previous
Current
Overweight
US$201.00
• iPhone Maintains Strong Lead Among Teens. Teen ownership of the iPhone was up
slightly at 83%, the highest share we have seen in our semi-annual Taking Stock With
Teens survey of about 8,000 high school students. Apple's share was up slightly from
82% in the fall. We believe iPhone may have further room to grow with 86% of teens
anticipating their next phone purchase to be an iPhone, still our highest recorded iPhone
purchase intent and flat from 86% in the fall. Android was the runner up in purchase
intent with 9% (down from 10% and the third consecutive decline we have recorded).
US$252,968
US$264,032
US$11.78
US$13.05
52-Week High / Low
Shares Out (mil)
Market Cap. (mil)
US$233.47 / US$142.00
4,773.0
US$940,281.0
Avg Daily Vol (000)
Book Value/Share
30,417
US$25.00
• Apple Watch Remains Top Smartwatch; Interest Slightly Down. The Apple Watch
remained the #1 smartwatch among teens. While 73% of respondents do not own a smart
watch (down from 79% in the fall), 20% own an Apple Watch, up significantly from 16%.
The Samsung Gear was the runner up with 2% (flat). Purchase intent declined slightly,
with 22% of teens saying they plan on buying an Apple Watch in the next 6 months vs.
23% in our Fall-18 survey.
Net
Cash Per Share
US$27.30
Debt to Total Capital
44.1%
Div
(ann)
US$2.92
Yield
Fiscal Year End
1.48%
Sep
Price Performance - 1 Year
USD
240
• Services Focus Will Be Ongoing Theme for AAPL in FY19. FY19 will likely prove to
be a year with limited catalysts for Apple on the product side, so we expect the news
flow for the next several quarters will continue to be centered around potential for driving
increasing services revenue per user/device. With lengthening hardware upgrade rates
and uncertainty around new device uptake, Apple is increasingly looking to leverage its
~1.4B installed base of active devices through services. Based on the deceleration in
growth of services revenue per active device that is implied in our model and the plethora
of new services coming from the company, we believe Apple has the potential to show
services revenue upside in FY19.
220
200
180
160
140
120
Apr-18
Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct -18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19
Source: Bloomberg
RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF PT & RECOMMENDATION
Trends in end-markets; component pricing; competitive pressures.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
Apple is the leader in the mobile device and digital content distribution markets.
REVENUE (US$ m)
EARNINGS PER SHARE (US$)
YEAR
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
FY
CY
FY RM
CY RM
Dec
Mar
Jun
Sep
FY
CY
FY P/E
CY P/E
2018A
88,293.0
61,137.0
53,265.0
62,900.0
265,595
261,612
3.5x
3.6x
3.89
2.73
2.34
2.91
11.91
12.16
16.5x
16.2x
2019E
84,310.0A
57,966.0
51,329.0
59,362.0
252,968
255,978
3.7x
3.7x
4.18A
2.40
2.32
2.86
11.78
12.16
16.7x
16.2x
2020E
87,321.0
60,966.0
54,144.0
61,601.0
264,032
270,436
3.6x
3.5x
4.59
2.78
2.54
3.11
13.05
13.39
15.1x
14.7x

Piper Jaffray does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure information, including an attestation under Regulation Analyst certification, found on pages 7 - 8 of this report or at the following site:

COMPANY NOTE April 8, 2019

COMPANY NOTE April 8, 2019

Details

Spring-19 Teen Survey

on

Apple

from

our

PJCTeenSurvey-DeviceOwnership

Spring-15

Fall-15

Spring-16

Fall-16

Spring-17

Fall-17

Spring-18

Fall-18

Spring-19

 

OwnaniPhone

66%

67%

69%

74%

76%

78%

82%

82%

83%

Expectnextphonetobe:

iPhone

72%

74%

75%

79%

81%

82%

84%

86%

86%

Android

21%

19%

19%

17%

13%

13%

11%

10%

9%

Blackberry

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

0%

0%

0%

1%

Othersmartphone

4%

4%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

Non-smartphone

2%

2%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

0%

1%

OtherAndroid

0%

0%

0%

0%

2%

2%

1%

1%

1%

GooglePixel

0%

0%

0%

0%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

OwnaSmartwatch

5%

9%

12%

12%

16%

17%

20%

21%

27%

PlantobuyAppleWatchinnext6months

11%

8%

10%

11%

13%

17%

20%

23%

22%

Source:PiperJaffray

Survey Details and Methodology

Our 37th semi-annual Taking Stock With Teens survey included responses from ~8,000 teens with an average age of 16.3 years.

Approximately 46% of respondents were female and 54% were male.

We divide our survey into two distinct income groups: upper-income with household incomes approximating $100,000 and average-income with household incomes approximating $55,000 based on zip code analysis and census data.

Respondents from the South composed the largest segment at 45%, followed by the Midwest with 20%, West at 19% and Northeast at 16%.

Apple, Inc.

Income Statement

Last Updated 04/04/2019

Apple, Inc. Income Statement Last Updated 04/04/2019 Yung Kim, Analyst Mike Olson, Sr. Research Analyst Yung.R.Kim

Yung Kim, Analyst

Mike Olson, Sr. Research Analyst

Yung.R.Kim@pjc.com

Michael.J.Olson@pjc.com

(212) 284-9312

(612) 303-6419

Income Statement ($ in millions except EPS)

   

2018

   

2019E

   

2020E

   

FY17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

FY18

Dec-18

Mar-19E

Jun-19E

Sep-19E

FY19E

Dec-19E

Mar-20E

Jun-20E

Sep-20E

FY20E

FY21E

Net Sales Cost of Sales

$229,234

$88,293

$61,137

$53,265

$62,900

$265,595

$84,310

$57,966

$51,329

$59,362

$252,968

$87,321

$60,966

$54,144

$61,601

$264,032

$280,344

141,049

54,381

37,715

32,844

38,816

163,756

52,279

36,152

31,272

36,349

156,053

53,617

37,257

33,100

37,707

161,682

172,507

Gross Profit

88,186

33,912

23,422

20,421

24,084

101,839

32,031

21,814

20,057

23,013

96,915

33,704

23,709

21,044

23,894

102,350

107,837

R&D

11,581

3,407

3,378

3,701

3,750

14,236

3,902

3,710

3,490

3,539

14,641

4,041

3,963

3,736

3,758

15,498

16,250

SG&A

15,261

4,231

4,150

4,108

4,216

16,705

4,783

4,811

3,901

3,979

17,474

4,954

5,121

4,169

4,189

18,433

19,368

Total Op Expense Operating Income Int & Other Expense

26,842

7,638

7,528

7,809

7,966

30,941

8,685

8,521

7,391

7,518

32,115

8,995

9,084

7,905

7,947

33,931

35,617

$61,344

$26,274

$15,894

$12,612

$16,118

$70,898

$23,346

$13,293

$12,665

$15,495

$64,800

$24,709

$14,625

$13,139

$15,947

$68,419

$72,220

2,745

756

274

672

303

2,005

560

300

300

300

1,460

300

300

300

300

1,200

1,200

Pre-Tax Income

64,089

27,030

16,168

13,284

16,421

72,903

23,906

13,593

12,965

15,795

66,260

25,009

14,925

13,439

16,247

69,619

73,420

Income Taxes

15,738

6,965

2,346

1,765

2,296

13,372

3,941

2,311

2,204

2,685

11,141

4,251

2,537

2,285

2,762

11,835

12,481

Net Income

$48,351

$20,065

$13,822

$11,519

$14,125

$59,531

$19,965

$11,282

$10,761

$13,110

$55,119

$20,757

$12,387

$11,154

$13,485

$57,784

$60,939

GAAP EPS

$9.21

$3.89

$2.73

$2.34

$2.91

$11.91

$4.18

$2.40

$2.32

$2.86

$11.78

$4.59

$2.78

$2.54

$3.11

$13.05

$14.58

Diluted Shares

5,252

5,158

5,068

4,927

4,848

5,000

4,773

4,711

4,648

4,586

4,680

4,523

4,461

4,398

4,336

4,430

4,180

% of Sales:

               

Gross Margin

38.5%

38.4%

38.3%

38.3%

38.3%

38.3%

38.0%

37.6%

39.1%

38.8%

38.3%

38.6%

38.9%

38.9%

38.8%

38.8%

38.5%

R&D

5.1%

3.9%

5.5%

6.9%

6.0%

5.4%

4.6%

6.4%

6.8%

6.0%

5.8%

4.6%

6.5%

6.9%

6.1%

5.9%

5.8%

SG&A

6.7%

4.8%

6.8%

7.7%

6.7%

6.3%

5.7%

8.3%

7.6%

6.7%

6.9%

5.7%

8.4%

7.7%

6.8%

7.0%

6.9%

Operating Margin

26.8%

29.8%

26.0%

23.7%

25.6%

26.7%

27.7%

22.9%

24.7%

26.1%

25.6%

28.3%

24.0%

24.3%

25.9%

25.9%

25.8%

Tax Rate

24.6%

25.8%

14.5%

13.3%

14.0%

18.3%

16.5%

17.0%

17.0%

17.0%

16.8%

17.0%

17.0%

17.0%

17.0%

17.0%

17.0%

Yr/Yr growth:

               

Net Sales

6.3%

12.7%

15.6%

17.3%

19.6%

15.9%

-4.5%

-5.2%

-3.6%

-5.6%

-4.8%

3.6%

5.2%

5.5%

3.8%

4.4%

6.2%

Operating Income

4.4%

11.8%

10.1%

17.5%

18.0%

13.8%

-11.6%

-15.9%

-2.4%

-3.8%

-9.1%

4.6%

9.8%

3.7%

2.9%

5.1%

5.5%

Net income

5.8%

12.2%

25.3%

32.1%

31.8%

23.1%

-0.5%

-18.4%

-6.6%

-7.2%

-7.4%

4.0%

9.8%

3.7%

2.9%

4.8%

5.5%

GAAP EPS

10.8%

15.9%

30.1%

40.4%

41.0%

29.3%

7.5%

-12.2%

-1.0%

-1.9%

-1.1%

9.7%

15.9%

9.5%

8.8%

10.8%

11.8%

Current disclosure information for this company is located at: http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures Source: Piper Jaffray estimates and Company Filings

Apple, Inc.

4/4/19

Balance Sheet $ In Millions

   

2018

     

2019E

     

2020E

     

FY17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

FY18

Dec-18

Mar-19E

Jun-19E

Sep-19E

FY19E

Dec-19E

Mar-20E

Jun-20E

Sep-20E

FY20E

FY21E

Current Assets:

               

Cash & Equivalents Short-Term marketable securities Accounts Receivable Inventories Vendor Non-Trade Receivables Other current assets

20,289

27,491

45,059

31,971

25,913

25,913

44,771

35,075

35,613

47,704

47,704

66,207

64,389

65,602

79,226

79,226

115,898

53,892

49,662

42,881

38,999

40,388

40,388

41,656

41,656

41,656

41,656

41,656

41,656

41,656

41,656

41,656

41,656

41,656

17,874

23,440

14,324

14,104

23,186

23,186

18,077

12,760

12,843

20,932

20,932

17,509

13,420

13,547

21,721

21,721

22,906

4,855

4,421

7,662

5,936

3,956

3,956

4,988

7,345

5,652

3,705

3,705

5,116

7,569

5,982

3,843

3,843

4,034

17,799

27,459

8,084

12,263

25,809

25,809

18,904

19,093

19,284

19,477

19,477

19,672

19,868

20,067

20,268

20,268

21,091

13,936

11,337

12,043

12,488

12,087

12,087

12,432

12,556

12,682

12,809

12,809

12,937

13,066

13,197

13,329

13,329

13,870

Total Current Assets

128,645

143,810

130,053

115,761

131,339

131,339

140,828

128,485

127,729

146,282

146,282

163,096

159,968

160,051

180,043

180,043

219,454

Long-Term Marketable Securities PP&E, net Goodwill Acquired Intangible Assets Other Non-Current Assets

194,714

207,944

179,286

172,773

170,799

170,799

158,608

150,678

143,144

135,987

135,987

129,187

122,728

116,591

110,762

110,762

90,216

33,783

33,679

35,077

38,117

41,304

41,304

39,597

42,597

45,597

48,597

48,597

51,597

54,597

57,597

60,597

60,597

60,597

5,717

5,889

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2,298

2,149

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

10,162

13,323

23,086

22,546

22,283

22,283

34,686

34,686

34,686

34,686

34,686

34,686

34,686

34,686

34,686

34,686

34,686

Total Assets

375,319

406,794

367,502

349,197

365,725

365,725

373,719

356,445

351,156

365,552

365,552

378,566

371,979

368,926

386,088

386,088

404,954

Current Liabilities Accounts Payable Accrued Expenses Deferred Revenue Commercial Paper Current Portion LT debt

49,049

62,985

34,311

38,489

55,888

55,888

44,293

40,576

41,063

53,426

53,426

52,392

42,676

43,315

55,441

55,441

58,465

25,744

26,281

26,756

25,184

33,327

33,327

36,703

37,070

37,441

37,815

37,815

38,193

38,575

38,961

39,351

39,351

40,948

7,548

8,044

7,775

7,403

5,966

5,966

5,546

5,823

6,114

6,420

6,420

6,741

7,078

7,432

7,804

7,804

9,486

11,977

11,980

11,980

11,974

11,964

11,964

11,969

11,969

11,969

11,969

11,969

11,969

11,969

11,969

11,969

11,969

11,969

6,496

6,498

8,498

5,498

8,784

8,784

9,772

9,772

9,772

9,772

9,772

9,772

9,772

9,772

9,772

9,772

9,772

Total Current Liabilities

100,814

115,788

89,320

88,548

115,929

115,929

108,283

105,211

106,359

119,402

119,402

119,068

110,071

111,449

124,336

124,336

130,640

Deferred Revenue, non-current Long-Term Debt Other non-current liabilities

2,836

3,131

3,087

2,878

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

97,207

103,922

101,362

97,128

93,735

93,735

92,989

92,989

92,989

92,989

92,989

92,989

92,989

92,989

92,989

92,989

92,989

40,415

43,754

46,855

45,694

48,914

48,914

54,555

54,555

54,555

54,555

54,555

54,555

54,555

54,555

54,555

54,555

54,555

Total Liabilities

241,272

266,595

240,624

234,248

258,578

258,578

255,827

252,755

253,903

266,946

266,946

266,612

257,615

258,993

271,880

271,880

278,184

Total Liab & SH Equity

375,319

406,794

367,502

349,197

365,725

365,725

373,719

356,445

351,156

365,552

365,552

378,566

371,979

368,926

386,088

386,088

404,954

Key Ratios:

               

DSO

23

20

23

32

18

20

23

32

18

20

23

32

Inventory Turns

49.2

19.7

22.1

39.2

41.9

19.7

22.1

39.2

41.9

19.7

22.1

39.2

AP/Sales

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Book Val/Shr

27

25

23

22

25

22

21

22

25

26

25

26

Cash/Shr

31.54

28.68

26.21

25.29

27.30

23.92

22.74

24.12

27.04

25.57

24.81

26.97

LTD/Cap

42.6

44.4

45.8

46.7

44.1

47.3

48.9

48.5

45.4

44.8

45.8

44.9

Source: Piper Jaffray estimates and Company Filings

Apple, Inc.

4/4/19

Cash Flow

   

2018

   

2019E

     

2020E

     

$ In Millions

FY17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

FY18

Dec-18

Mar-19E

Jun-19E

Sep-19E

FY19E

Dec-19E

Mar-20E

Jun-20E

Sep-20E

FY20E

FY21E

CF FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES:

               

Net income

48,350.5

20,065.0

13,822.0

11,519.0

14,125.0

59,531.0

19,965.0

11,282.3

10,761.2

13,110.1

55,118.7

20,757.2

12,387.5

11,154.0

13,485.3

57,784.0

60,938.5

Adjustments to net income:

     

Depreciation and amortization

10,157.0

2,745.0

2,739.0

2,665.0

2,754.0

10,903.0

3,395.0

3,429.0

3,463.2

3,497.9

13,785.1

3,532.9

3,568.2

3,603.9

3,639.9

14,344.8

14,927.2

Share-based compensation expense

4,840.0

1,296.0

1,348.0

1,351.0

1,345.0

5,340.0

1,559.0

1,605.8

1,653.9

1,703.6

6,522.3

1,754.7

1,807.3

1,861.5

1,917.4

7,340.9

8,262.2

Deferred income tax expense

5,966.0

(33,748.0)

(487.0)

1,126.0

519.0

(32,590.0)

(1.0)

(1.0)

(1.1)

(1.1)

(4.2)

(1.1)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(1.2)

(4.7)

(5.3)

Chg in operating assets and liabilities:

     

Accounts receivable, net

(2,093.0)

(5,570.0)

9,093.0

233.0

(9,078.0)

(5,322.0)

5,130.0

5,317.1

(82.8)

(8,089.0)

2,275.3

3,422.6

4,088.9

(126.8)

(8,174.1)

(789.4)

(1,184.7)

Inventories

(2,723.0)

434.0

(3,241.0)

1,693.0

1,942.0

828.0

(1,076.0)

(2,356.5)

1,692.6

1,947.4

207.4

(1,411.1)

(2,453.4)

1,586.7

2,139.3

(138.4)

(191.1)

Vendor non-trade receivables

(4,254.0)

(9,660.0)

19,375.0

(4,179.0)

(13,546.0)

(8,010.0)

6,905.0

(189.0)

(190.9)

(192.8)

6,332.2

(194.8)

(196.7)

(198.7)

(200.7)

(790.8)

(822.9)

Other current and non-current assets

(5,484.0)

(197.0)

(856.0)

988.0

(802.0)

(867.0)

(886.0)

(12,872.3)

(249.9)

(252.4)

(14,260.6)

(128.1)

(257.5)

(260.0)

(262.6)

(908.2)

(945.1)

Accounts payable

9,618.0

12,602.0

(25,822.0)

2,081.0

20,314.0

9,175.0

(8,501.0)

(3,716.5)

486.7

12,362.9

632.1

(1,033.8)

(9,716.1)

639.0

12,125.9

2,014.9

3,023.7

Deferred Revenue

(626.0)

569.0

(91.0)

(581.0)

59.0

(44.0)

(370.0)

(370.0)

(370.0)

(370.0)

(1,480.0)

(370.0)

(370.0)

(370.0)

(370.0)

(1,480.0)

(1,480.0)

Other current and non-current liabilities

(154.0)

39,757.0

(750.0)

(2,408.0)

1,891.0

38,490.0

570.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

570.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net cash provided by op activities

63,597.5

28,293.0

15,130.0

14,488.0

19,523.0

77,434.0

26,690.0

2,128.8

17,163.0

23,716.5

69,698.3

26,328.4

8,857.0

17,888.3

24,299.2

77,373.0

82,522.6

CF FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES:

     

Purchase of marketable securities

(159,486.0)

(41,272.0)

(7,177)

(7,684)

(15,223)

(71,356.0)

(7,077.0)

(20,000)

(20,000)

(20,000)

(67,077.0)

(7,077)

(20,000)

(20,000)

(20,000)

(67,077.0)

(67,077.0)

Proceeds from maturities of marketable securities

31,775.0

14,048.0

17,836

14,406

9,591

55,881.0

7,203.0

15,000

15,000

15,000

52,203.0

7,203

15,000

15,000

15,000

52,203.0

52,203.0

Proceeds from sales of marketable securities

94,564.0

16,801.0

22,141

2,672

6,224

47,838.0

9,723.0

12,000

12,000

12,000

45,723.0

9,723

12,000

12,000

12,000

45,723.0

45,723.0

Payments made in connection with business acqu

(329.0)

(173.0)

(132.0)

(126.0)

(290.0)

(721.0)

(167.0)

(167.0)

(167.0)

(167.0)

(668.0)

(167.0)

(167.0)

(167.0)

(167.0)

(668.0)

(668.0)

Payments for acquisition of property, plant and eq

(12,451.0)

(2,810.0)

(4,195)

(3,267)

(3,041)

(13,313.0)

(3,355.0)

(3,000)

(3,000)

(3,000)

(12,355.0)

(3,000)

(3,000)

(3,000)

(3,000)

(12,000.0)

(12,000.0)

Payments for acquisition of intangible assets

(344.0)

0.0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

(100)

(100)

(100)

(300.0)

(100)

(100)

(100)

(100)

(400.0)

(400.0)

Payments for strategic investments

(395.0)

(141.0)

141

(1,478)

(40)

(1,518.0)

(427.0)

0

0

0

(427.0)

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

Other

220.0

(43.0)

96

(576)

(222)

(745.0)

(56.0)

0

0

0

(56.0)

0

0

0

0

0.0

0.0

Net cash provided by investing activities

(46,446.0)

(13,590.0)

28,710.0

3,947.0

(3,001.0)

16,066.0

5,844.0

3,733.0

3,733.0

3,733.0

17,043.0

6,582.0

3,733.0

3,733.0

3,733.0

17,781.0

17,781.0

CF FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES:

     

Proceeds from issuance of common stock

555.0

0.0

327.0

1.0

341.0

669.0

0.0

300.0

300.0

300.0

900.0

300.0

300.0

300.0

300.0

1,200.0

1,200.0

Excess tax benefits from equity awards Payments for taxes related to net share settlemen

627.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

60.0

60.0

60.0

180.0

60.0

60.0

60.0

60.0

240.0

240.0

(1,874.0)

(1,038.0)

(152.0)

(1,077.0)

(260.0)

(2,527.0)

(1,318.0)

(650.0)

(650.0)

(650.0)

(3,268.0)

(700.0)

(700.0)

(700.0)

(700.0)

(2,800.0)

(2,800.0)

Payments for dividends and dividend equivalents

(12,769.0)

(3,339.0)

(3,190.0)

(3,653.0)

(3,530.0)

(13,712.0)

(3,568.0)

(3,568.0)

(3,568.0)

(3,568.0)

(14,272.0)

(3,568.0)

(3,568.0)

(3,568.0)

(3,568.0)

(14,272.0)

(14,272.0)

Repurchase of common stock

(32,900.0)

(10,095.0)

(22,756.0)

(20,783.0)

(19,104.0)

(72,738.0)

(8,796.0)

(18,700.0)

(18,500.0)

(18,500.0)

(64,496.0)

(17,500.0)

(17,500.0)

(17,500.0)

(17,500.0)

(70,000.0)

(70,000.0)

Proceeds from issuance of term debt, net

28,662.0

6,969.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

6,969.0

0.0

7,000.0

7,000.0

7,000.0

21,000.0

7,000.0

7,000.0

7,000.0

7,000.0

28,000.0

28,000.0

Repayments of term debt

(3,500.0)

0.0

(500.0)

(6,000.0)

0.0

(6,500.0)

0.0

0.0

(5,000.0)

0.0

(5,000.0)

0.0

0.0

(6,000.0)

0.0

(6,000.0)

(6,000.0)

Change in commecial paper, net

3,852.0

2.0

(1.0)

(11.0)

(27.0)

(37.0)

6.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

6.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Net cash provided by financing activities

(17,347.0)

(7,501.0)

(26,272.0)

(31,523.0)

(22,580.0)

(87,876.0)

(13,676.0)

(15,558.0)

(20,358.0)

(15,358.0)

(64,950.0)

(14,408.0)

(14,408.0)

(20,408.0)

(14,408.0)

(63,632.0)

(63,632.0)

Net increase (decrease) in cash and cash equiv.

(195.5)

7,202.0

17,568.0

(13,088.0) (6,058.0)

5,624.0

18,858.0

(9,696.2)

538.0

12,091.5

21,791.3

18,502.4

(1,818.0)

1,213.3

13,624.2

31,522.0

36,671.6

Cash and cash equivalents at beginning of period

20,484.0

20,289.0

27,491.0

45,059.0

31,971.0

20,289.0

25,913.0

44,771.0

35,074.8

35,612.8

25,913.0

47,704.3

66,206.7

64,388.8

65,602.1

47,704.3

79,226.3

Cash and cash equivalents at end of period

20,288.5

27,491.0

45,059.0

31,971.0

25,913.0

25,913.0

44,771.0

35,074.8

35,612.8

47,704.3

47,704.3

66,206.7

64,388.8

65,602.1

79,226.3

79,226.3

115,897.9

Source: Piper Jaffray estimates and Company Filings

Apple, Inc.

4/4/19

Sales Analysis ($M and units in millions)

   

2018

   

2019E

   

2020E

   

FY17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

FY18

Dec-18

Mar-19E

Jun-19E

Sep-19E

FY19E

Dec-19E

Mar-20E

Jun-20E

Sep-20E

FY20E

FY21E

iPhone

               

Revenue

$141,319.0

$61,104.0

$37,559.0

$29,470.0

$36,755.0

$164,888.0

$51,982.0

$31,925.2

$24,754.8

$30,139.1

$138,801.1

$51,982.0

$31,925.2

$24,754.8

$29,837.7

$138,499.7

$143,122.3

%

of Sales

62%

69%

61%

55%

58%

62%

62%

55%

48%

51%

55%

60%

52%

46%

48%

52%

51%

Y/Y Rev Growth iPad

3%

12%

13%

19%

27%

17%

-15%

-15%

-16%

-18%

-16%

0%

0%

0%

-1%

0%

3%