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THE PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION IN ARGENTINA
NATIONWIDE POLL

9th April 2019

Synopsis Consultores Piedras 1141 5to. “E” ( C1140ABE) – City of Buenos Aires - Argentina
SAMPLE SUMMARY (NATIONWIDE)

SAMPLE: 2.372 OBSERVATIONS (in main Cities of the Country)


GEOGRAPHIC COVERAGE (% DISTRIBUTION) GENDER DISTRIBUTION

16
7
19
5

20
12
11
14
15
52,1 47,9
21

9
10 2 18
3
4 23 24
1
6 MEN
HOMBRES WOMEN
MUJERES
27 26
AGE DISTRIBUTION
8
17
13

25 14,7
30,5

22
18,7

36,0
28
16-29 years
Entre 18 y 29 años 30-49 years
Entre 30 y 49 años
29 50-64 years
Entre 50 y 64 años More than 65 years
Más de 65 años

EDUCATION LEVEL DISTRIBUTION

10,2
CITIES

10,2
36,1

22,9
20,5
Elementary School completed Middle School incompleted
Primario Comp. o Incomp.
or incompleted Secundario Incompleto
Secundario Completo
Middle School completed High School incompleted
Terciario o Univers. Incomp.
High School or College Completed
Terciario o Univers. Comp.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
o  The perception of Mauricio Macri’s government performance continued deteriorating in
April and has not found its floor yet: there was another fall in the positive opinion (-1.3)
while the negative perception rose (+1.7) compared to March. The difference between
the negative (58.8%) and positive image (23.9%) was -34.9%.

o  Concerns about Inflation climbed for the third consecutive month and rose by +2.9
p.p. (percentage points) in April, thus witnessing its highest value during the entire
administration of Cambiemos (44.6%). There was a slight increase in concerns about
Unemployment (+3.4%); resulting in 63.8% of concerns being related to economic
issues.

o  As for expectations, April started seeing the consolidation of improvements, both for
expectations about the country’s future and about people’s personal situation. Overall, we
observe a drop in pessimistic expectations and an increase in optimism about the future.
This phenomenon may be related to people’s expectations about the outcome of
presidential elections.

o  Regarding the elections, April’s government/opposition voting intention registered a


drop of -1.8 p.p. in the intention to vote for the government (taking it below 30% for
the first time) and an increase of +2.6 p.p. in the intention to vote for the opposition
(taking it to 57%). The level of undecided voters remained stable, on 13.2%.

o  When looking at the scenarios for the general elections, and assuming that Mauricio
Macri and Cristina Kirchner will be the candidates representing their respective political
forces, we presented three alternative scenarios to compare the performance of the three
main candidates for the coalition that that non-Kirchnerist Peronism and dissident sectors
of the Socialist and Radicalist parties are currently trying to build (hereby referred to as
the third alternative):

o  In all of the scenarios, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has the highest voting
intention, registering the worst performance in the scenario in which Lavagna is
the candidate for the third alternative (35.9%) and the best one in the scenario in
which Urtubey is the candidate representing that coalition (39.8%).

o  Mauricio Macri comes in second place, having the best performance with
Urtubey as the opposition candidate from the third alternative (31.2%) and the
worst performance with Lavagna as candidate of that coalition (28.8%).

o  Among the candidates of the third alternative, Roberto Lavagna has the best
performance, with a voting intention of 16.5%. He is followed by Sergio Massa
(10.7%) and Juan Manuel Urtubey (7.9%).

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
o  Assessing the ballotage scenarios between Mauricio Macri and the three main candidates
of the opposition (CFK, Lavagna and Massa), we can observe even scenarios when
Macri faces Cristina Kirchner (-0.7) and Sergio Massa (+0.7%), whereas it is visibly
unfavourable when Macri faces Roberto Lavagna (-14.6%). When making the
projection for undecided voters (based on re-asking the questions made in the polls),
Macri loses against all three candidates, with the most close-fought defeat taking
place in the scenario in which he competes against Cristina Kirchner (-1.8%), while
the worst performance for Macri takes place in the scenario in which he faces
Lavagna in the ballotage (-22.6%).

o  When looking at rejection levels and asking what the least desirable result is, 49.0%
believe that the victory of Mauricio Macri is the worst outcome, while the rejection
for Cristina Kirchner coming out victorious reaches 43.8%. There is no rejection for
Lavagna, who is probably favoured by the high rejection levels for the two other
candidates positioned at the two extremes of the political cleavage.

o  Among those who DO NOT want Macri to win, 66.9% believe that Cristina Kirchner
is the candidate best fit to defeat him. While among those who DO NOT want
Cristina Kirchner to win, 68.5% believe that Macri is the candidate in best condition
to defeat her.

o  Among those who wish Macri to lose, 17.5% is willing to change their vote to favour
his defeat, while among those wanting Cristina Kirchner to lose, 20.8% would change
their vote to make sure that she does not win. Among both groups, there exists a
percentage willing to vote strategically (tactical vote).

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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PUBLIC OPINION
CONTEXT

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MAURICIO MACRI’S GOVERNMENT APPROVAL RATE

How do you rate Mauricio Macri’s government performance?


APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL
DK/NA
1.0

POSITIVE NEGATIVE
VERY
23.9 GOOD 58.8
9.4
GOOD
14.5 VERY BAD
43.0

AVERAGE
16.3
BAD
15.8

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)


60

50

40

30

20

10

0 M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A
2016 2017 2018 2019
POSITIVE
POSITIVA NEGATIVE
NEGATIVA AVERAGE
REGULAR
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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ISSUES FACING THE COUNTRY

In your opinion. what is the most important problem facing this


country?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

ECONOMIC PROBLEMS

44.6
63.8%

19.2
14.5
9.3
5.5 4.5
1.6 0.7
INFLATION UNEMPLOYMENT CORRUPTION CRIME EDUCATION DRUG HEALTH OTHER
TRAFFICING

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)


45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5 J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A
J F M A M J J A S O N D E
M A M J J A S O N D E
2016 2017 2018 2019
INFLATION
INFLACIÓN DESEMPLEO
UNEMPLOYMENT CORRUPCIÓN
CORRUPTION CRIME
INSEGURIDAD
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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EXPECTATIONS FOR THE COUNTRY’S FUTURE

How do you think the country’s economic situation will be in a


year’s time?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

43.1

26.0
19.8

11.1

BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NA

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)


60

50

40

30

20

10

0
M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A M J J A S O N D E J F M A
2016 2017 2018 2019
BETTER
MEJOR SAME
IGUAL WORSE
PEOR
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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EXPECTATIONS FOR FUTURE PERSONAL SITUATION

How do you think your personal economic situation will be in a


year’s time?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

40.2

26.9
21.7

11.3

BETTER SAME WORSE DK/NA

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 38 MONTHS (MARCH 2016-APRIL 2019)


60

50

40

30

20

10

0
M A M J J A S O N D E
J F M A M J J A S O N D E
J F M A M J J A S O N D E
J F M A
2016 2017 2018 2019
BETTER
MEJOR SAME
IGUAL WORSE
PEOR
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 ELECTORAL
SCENARIOS

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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIOS

If the presidential elections were today. which party would you vote for?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

57.0

29.8

13.2

Cambiemos Other party


Otra fuerza política Indeciso
Undecided

EVOLUTION OVER LAST 10 MONTHS (AUGUST 2018-APRIL 2019)


70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
JUL AGO
AUG SEP OCT NOV DIC ENE FEB MAR ABR
2018 2019
CAMBIEMOS OTHER PARTY
OTRA FUERZA POLÍTICA UNDECIDED
INDECISOS
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (General Election)

If the presidential elections were today. which of these candidates would


you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (LAVAGNA´S SCENARIO)

35.9
28.8

16.5
7.5 8.2
3.0
Mauricio Roberto Cristina Nicolás A otro
Other Indeciso
Undecided
Macri Lavagna Kirchner del Caño Candidate
candidato

SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
Mujer
WOMEN 28.7 18.4 34.8 6.9 8.7
Hombre
MEN 28.9 14.5 37.2 8.1 7.7
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 18.4 23.5 41.3 6.7 6.9
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 27.1 15.6 35.3 9.3 9.1
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 37.8 11.4 33.5 7.0 8.3
65 años o mas
65 or + years 43.2 11.0 29.5 5.3 8.8
SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 31.4 20.3 33.9 5.7 6.6
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 28.1 12.7 40.7 5.2 11.0
Center of the Country
Centro 28.6 14.4 41.7 7.1 6.9
North of the Country
Norte 28.6 22.1 23.3 11.0 8.2
South of the Country
Patag. y Cuyo 29.3 19.0 31.7 9.7 6.6
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Elementary School
Primario 24.8 24.9 35.1 5.5 7.1
Middle School
Secundario 29.6 12.9 37.4 8.6 8.7
College
Terciario 31.0 15.0 34.4 10.0 8.4
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño Other Candidate
A otro candidato Indeciso
Undecided

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (General Election)

If the presidential elections were today. which of these candidates would


you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (MASSA´S SCENARIO)
37,5
30,8

10,7 11,7
7,3
2,0
Mauricio Sergio Cristina Nicolás A otro
Other Indeciso
Undecided
Macri Massa Kirchner del Caño candidato
Candidate

SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
Mujer
WOMEN 31,2 11,1 37,4 10,6 7,8
Hombre
MEN 30,4 10,3 37,5 12,9 6,7
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 21,6 12,0 44,4 14,3 6,3
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 28,7 10,8 36,5 13,2 8,2
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 39,2 9,0 34,3 9,3 6,9
65 or + years
65 años o mas 44,7 10,4 29,6 5,8 7,7
SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 43,5 8,2 30,3 9,0 6,5
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 29,3 10,7 40,1 6,7 10,0
Center of the Country
Centro 30,0 6,6 44,2 12,6 5,8
North of the Country
Norte 26,7 18,6 28,2 17,8 8,0
South of the Country
Patag. y Cuyo 33,5 10,6 34,2 13,5 4,2
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Elementary School
Primario 30,4 14,6 40,1 7,9 5,5
Middle School
Secundario 29,4 9,3 37,6 12,3 8,7
College
Terciario 33,3 9,7 35,0 14,0 6,8
Mauricio Macri, Sergio Massa Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño Other Candidate
A otro candidato Indeciso
Undecided
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (General Election)

If the presidential elections were today. which of these candidates would


you vote for? APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL - (URTUBEY´S SCENARIO)
39,8
31,2

10,8
7,9 7,9
2,4
Mauricio Juan Manuel Cristina Other
Nicolás A otro Indeciso
Undecided
Macri Urtubey Kirchner del Caño candidato
Candidate

SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
Mujer
WOMEN 32,6 7,3 38,3 9,2 9,6
Hombre
MEN 29,7 8,6 41,4 12,6 6,1
SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 24,1 10,0 48,5 10,3 5,3
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 27,9 7,8 38,7 13,2 8,8
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 40,0 5,8 35,1 10,0 7,6
65 or + years
65 años o mas 42,9 6,5 30,3 7,1 11,6
SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 43,4 5,4 35,5 8,6 6,2
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 28,8 6,5 42,4 7,4 10,4
Center of the Country
Centro 32,0 4,0 44,9 10,6 7,6
North of the Country
Norte 26,7 15,2 33,4 15,2 7,6
South of the Country
Patag. y Cuyo 32,9 11,6 33,7 14,1 5,0
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Elementary School
Primario 31,3 6,8 42,6 7,5 8,9
Middle School
Secundario 29,9 8,9 39,8 10,9 8,0
College
Terciario 33,1 7,3 37,3 13,6 7,0
Mauricio Macri Juan Manuel Urtubey Cristina Kirchner Nicolás del Caño Other Candidate Undecided
A otro candidato Indeciso
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (General Election)

FLOW OF SUPPORTS BETWEN LAVAGNA´S AND MASSA ´S SCENARIOS


APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL- (SANKEY DIAGRAM)

Others Others

Undecided Undecided

FLOW OF SUPPORTS BETWEN LAVAGNA´S AND URTUBEY´S SCENARIOS


APRIL 2019 - NATIONAL TOTAL- (SANKEY DIAGRAM)

Others

Undecided
Undecided

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2019 BALLOTAGE
SCENARIOS

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2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS COMPARED

VOTING INTENTION IN THE DIFFERENT BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS


APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL DIFFERENCES
-
MACRI
vs.
CFK
44.3 10.8 45.0 0.7

MACRI
vs.
MASSA 42.7 15.3 42.0 0.7
MACRI
vs.
LAVAGNA 34.9 15.6 49.5 14.6
MACRI OPPONENT UNDECIDED

VOTING INTENTION IN THE DIFFERENT BALLOTAGE SCENARIOS


APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL
WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING) DIFFERENCES

MACRI
vs.
CFK
49.1 50.9 1.8
MACRI
vs.
MASSA 46.0 54.0 8.0
MACRI
vs.
LAVAGNA 38.8 61.2 22.4
MACRI OPPONENT UNDECIDED

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-CFK

If the presidential elections were today and the outcome is defined in a ballotage
between Mauricio Macri and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

44.3 45.0

MACRI CFK
49.1 INDECISOS
50.9
10.8

SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)


Baseline Scenario
Escenario base 44.3 10.8 45.0
Según tipo indecisos
By Undecided Type 44.3 4.8 6.0 45.0
Proyección indecisos
Projection for Undecided

Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri) Undecided


Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (CFK)
Indecisos (CFK) CFK
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY AGE GROUP
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 37.10 12.9 50.0
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 42.52 9.8 47.7
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 51.31 7.8 40.9
65 or + years
65 años o mas 54.59 12.3 33.1
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 54.0 6.3 39.7
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 41.1 12.7 46.2
Center of the Country
Centro 42,4 8.6 49.0
North of the Country
Norte 41.8 15.0 43.2
South of the Country
Patagonia y Cuyo 53.4 8.5 38.1
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
Mauricio Macri Undecided
No sabe Cristina Fernández de Kirchner
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-CFK

If the presidential elections were today and the outcome is defined in a ballotage
between Mauricio Macri and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

44,3 45,0

MACRI CFK
49.1 50.9
10,8

SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)


Baseline Scenario
Escenario base 44.3 10.8 45.0
Según tipo indecisos
By Undecided Type 44.3 4.8 6.0 45.0
Proyección indecisos
Projection for Undecided

Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri) Undecided


Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (CFK)
Indecisos (CFK) CFK
EVOLUTION OF BALLOTAGE´S SCENARIO BETWEN MACRI AND CFK (MARCH 2018-APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL)
60

50
BEGINIG OF THE CURRENCY CRISIS

40

30

20

10

0
MAR ´18 JUN. ´18 SEP. ´18 OCT.´18 DIC.´18 MAR.´19 ABR.´19
Mauricio Macri Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner Undecided
Indecisos
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2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-LAVAGNA

If the presidential elections were today and the outcome is defined in a ballotage
between Mauricio Macri and Roberto Lavagna, who would you vote for?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

34,9
49,5
MACRI LAVAGNA
38,8 INDECISOS
15,6
61,2

SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)


Baseline Scenario
Escenario base 34.9 15.6 49.5
Según tipo indecisos
By Undecided Type 34.9 4.0 11.7 49.5
Proyección indecisos
Projection for Undecided
Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri)
Indecisos (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (Lavagna)
Undecided Indecisos (Lavagna) Roberto Lavagna
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY AGE GROUP
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 28.6 16.9 54.5
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 32.7 15.6 51.8
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 41.0 15.9 43.1
65 or + years
65 años o mas 45.3 13.1 41.6
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 47.3 15.9 36.8
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 30.6 19.5 49.9
Center of the Country
Centro 35.6 15.0 49.5
North of the Country
Norte 34.6 15.3 50.2
South of the Country
Patagonia y Cuyo 34.1 8.7 57.2
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
Maurio Macri Undecided
No sabe Roberto Lavagna
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2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO MACRI-MASSA

If the presidential elections were today and the outcome is defined in a ballotage
between Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa, who would you vote for?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

42,7 42,0

MACRI MASSA
46,0 INDECISOS
15,3
54,0

SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)


Baseline Scenario
Escenario base 42.7 15.3 42.0
Según tipo indecisos
By Undecided Type 42.7 3.3 12.0 42.0
Proyección indecisos
Projection for Undecided

Indecisos (Macri) Undecided


Mauricio Macri Undecided (Macri) Indecisos Undecided (Massa)
Indecisos (Massa) Sergio Massa
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY AGE GROUP
16 y 29 años
16-29 years 36.4 12.8 50.8
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 41.2 17.7 41.1
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 48.5 15.4 36.1
65 or + years
65 años o mas 52.1 14.3 33.6
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 52.7 13.8 33.5
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 37.9 21.0 41.1
Center of the Country
Centro 41.7 14.7 43.6
North of the Country
Norte 44.5 11.4 44.1
South of the Country
Patagonia y Cuyo 46.2 10.2 43.6
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
Maurio Macri Undecided
No sabe Sergio Massa
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 BALLOTAGE SCENARIO LAVAGNA-CFK

If the presidential elections were today and the outcome is defined in a ballotage
between Roberto Lavagna and Cristina F. de Kirchner. who would you vote for?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

44,6 41,9

LAVAGNA CFK
56.6 INDECISOS
43.4
13,5

SCENARIO WITH PROJECTION FOR UNDECIDED VOTERS (REASKING)


Baseline Scenario
Escenario base 44.6 13.5 41.9
By Undecided Type
Según tipo indecisos 44.6 12.0 1.5 41.9
Projection for Undecided
Proyección indecisos
Roberto Lavagna Indecisos Undecided (CFK)
Indecisos (Lavagna) Undecided
Undecided (Lavagna) Indecisos (CFK) Cristina Kirchner
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY AGE GROUP
16 y 29 años
16-29 years 34.8 15.4 49.8
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 48.5 10.2 41.3
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 46.5 16.1 37.4
65 or + years
65 años o mas 53.1 14.1 32.8
MACRI-CFK SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC AREA
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 40.3 22.0 37.7
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 44.8 10.1 45.1
Center of the Country
Centro 39.9 14.3 45.7
North of the Country
Norte 52.6 12.5 34.8
South of the Country
Patagonia y Cuyo 46.6 14.3 39.0
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
Roberto Lavagna No sabe
Undecided Cristina Kirchner
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ELECTORAL DYNAMIC
ACCORDING TO REJECT LEVELS
OF CANDIDATES

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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Rejection Levels)

Out of these candidates, who would you NOT want to win the elections?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL

49.0
43.8

5.8
1.5
Maurio Macri Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna DK/NA
NS/NC

REJECT BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 46.4 45.9 6.7
MEN
Hombre 51.8 41.4 4.8
REJECT BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 57.7 36.6 4.3
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 52.0 42.4 4.2
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 39.7 51.6 6.8
65 or + years
65 años o mas 35.2 52.1 11.4
REJECT BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION
APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 40.4 54.7 4.3
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 53.0 39.3 6.0
Center of the Country
Centro 50.8 42.5 6.0
North of the Country
Norte 46.2 45.2 6.1
South of the Country
Patagonia y Cuyo 45.8 47.2 5.5
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
REJECT BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Elementary School
Primario 48,4 39,1 11,7
Middle School
Secundario 50,8 43,0 4,4
College
Terciario 46,7 48,9 2,9
Maurio Macri Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna DK/NA
NS/NC
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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Rejection Levels)

And who do you think is best fit to defeat Macri?


APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING MACRI TO LOSE)

66.9 19.1 14.0

Cristina Kirchner Roberto Lavagna NS/NC


DK/NA

SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 66.1 18.0 16.0
MEN
Hombre 67.8 20.2 12.0

SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 69.9 15.8 14.3
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 64.0 20.8 15.2
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 66.2 23.7 10.1
65 or + years
65 años o mas 67.9 17.8 14.3

SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION


APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 78.2 8.7 13.1
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 67.9 17.9 14.2
Center of the Country
Centro 73.3 14.6 12.1
North of the Country
Norte 50.2 31.6 18.2
South of the Country
Patag. y Cuyo 63.3 24.0 12.7
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Primario
Elementary School 67.5 20.3 12.2
Middle School
Secundario 65.2 19.3 15.5
College
Terciario 69.3 17.5 13.1
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna DK/NA
A otro candidato

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Rejection Levels)

And who do you think is best fit to defeat Cristina Kirchner?


APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING CFK TO LOSE)

68.5 14.8 16.7

Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna DK/NA


NS/NC

SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 68.8 10.8 20.4
MEN
Hombre 68.2 19.3 12.5

SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 68.3 15.6 16.1
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 68.9 13.6 17.5
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 66.4 16.0 17.6
65 or + years
65 años o mas 70.9 14.4 14.7

SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION


APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 74.8 14.1 11.1
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 65.0 12.5 22.5
Center of the Country
Centro 75.1 13.8 11.1
North of the Country
Norte 59.2 16.1 24.7
Patag. y Cuyo
South of the Country 70.3 19.9 9.8
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Primario
Elementary School 68.3 12.2 19.5
Middle School
Secundario 72.1 12.1 15.8
College
Terciario 64.0 19.9 16.1
Mauricio Macri Roberto Lavagna DK/NA
A otro candidato

NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Strategic Vote)

Would you be willing to change your vote if your candidate does not
guarantee Macri’s defeat?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING MACRI TO LOSE)

17.5 36.0 29.0 17.5

Si, estaría dispuesto


Yes, I Would Depende a qué otro tenga que votar
It depends on which other candidate has to vote
No, no lo cambiaria
No, I Wouldn´t No sabe
DK/NA

SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 16.5 34.2 28.9 20.3
MEN
Hombre 18.4 37.8 29.1 14.6

SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16 y 29 años
16-29 years 15.6 36.9 25.7 21.7
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 19.1 37.9 31.1 11.9
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 21.0 33.3 30.1 15.5
65 or + years
65 años o mas 13.2 29.7 32.1 25.1

SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION


APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 22.3 31.2 18.7 27.9
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 11.0 35.1 36.0 17.9
Center of the Country
Centro 15.9 39.0 26.7 18.4
North of the Country
Norte 22.1 37.9 25.7 14.3
Patag. y Cuyo
South of the Country 28.1 31.1 30.9 9.8
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Primario
Elementary School 18.3 26.1 28.6 27.1
Middle School
Secundario 11.9 40.7 31.1 16.3
College
Terciario 26.0 37.5 26.0 10.5
Yes, I Would
Si, estaría dispuesto It depends on which other candidate
Depende a qué otro tenga que votar No, I Wouldn´t
No, no lo cambiaria DK-NA
No, no lo cambiaria
has to vote
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2019 ELECTORAL SCENARIO (Strategic Vote)

Would you be willing to change your vote if your candidate does not
guarantee CFK´s defeat?
APRIL 2019 – NATIONAL TOTAL – (AMONGST THOSE WANTING CFK TO LOSE)

20.8 31.4 29.9 17.9

Si, estaría dispuesto


Yes, I Would Depende a qué otro tenga que votar
It depends on which other candidate has to vote
No, no lo cambiaria
No, I Wouldn´t No sabe
DK/NA

SCENARIO BY GENDER
APRIL 2019
WOMEN
Mujer 17.2 30.8 29.7 22.2
MEN
Hombre 24.8 32.1 30.2 12.9

SCENARIO BY AGE
APRIL 2019
16-29 years
16 y 29 años 10.3 42.0 28.4 19.2
30-49 years
30 y 49 años 23.3 32.8 28.3 15.6
50-64 years
50 y 64 años 29.0 25.4 27.4 18.2
65 or + years
65 años o mas 19.1 22.4 38.4 20.1

SCENARIO BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION


APRIL 2019
City of Buenos Aires
CABA 28.2 28.2 26.6 17.0
Grand Buenos Aires
GBA 16.4 28.1 33.5 21.9
Center of the Country
Centro 22.8 29.5 33.5 14.1
North of the Country
Norte 19.1 33.4 25.0 22.4
South of the Country
Patag. y Cuyo 22.3 41.4 24.2 12.1
(Patagonia and Cuyo)
SCENARIO BY EDUCATION LEVEL
APRIL 2019
Primario
Elementary School 18.6 18.1 35.6 27.6
Middle School
Secundario 19.1 34.4 30.7 15.8
College
Terciario 24.3 35.6 25.5 14.7
Yes, I Would
Si, estaría dispuesto
It depends on which other candidate
Depende a qué otro tenga que votar No, I Wouldn´t
No, no lo cambiaria DK-NA
No, no lo cambiaria

has to vote
NATIONWIDE ― SAMPLE OF 2,372 OBSERVATIONS ― 4th-6th APRIL 2019

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POLLING METHODOLOGY

FIELDWORK DATE: 4th to 6th April 2019.


AREA: Buenos Aires Metropolitan Area (AMBA by its Spanish
acronym) and main cities in the country’s provinces (La Plata, Mar del
Plata, Bahía Blanca, Tandil, San Nicolás, Rosario, Paraná, Comodoro
Rivadavia, San M. de Tucumán, Santa Fe, Córdoba, Mendoza, Salta,
Corrientes, Neuquén, Santa Rosa, La Rioja, Catamarca, San Luis, San
Juan, Posadas, Resistencia, Santiago del Estero, Formosa, Usuahia, Río
Gallegos, Formosa y Bariloche).
SAMPLE DESIGN: Stratified probabilistic sample by
population’s sex, age and level of education. Weighted by Sex,
Age, and Education Level according to census data.
UNIVERSE: Population of more than 16 years old. living in
private households with a land-line phone in the Buenos Aires
Metropolitan Area and the main cities of the nation’s
provinces.
SAMPLE SIZE: 2.372 observations.
COLLECTION TOOL: Structured Questionnaire.
SURVEY SYSTEM: Telephone survey (IVR - Interactive Voice
Response).
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL: 95.5%.
MARGIN OF ERROR: +/- 2.0

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