YOUNG GUNS - YOUTH IS SERVED
Hockey is a young man’s game. Last year, four of the league’s top-
five scorers were 24 or younger. The top three defensemen were
on this earth for a combined total of 70 years.
Is your grandfather even 70?
Youth is an epidemic in the NHL, a by-product of the salary cap.
Young equals cheap for NHL general managers and that means
there are plenty of jobs available. It’s bye-bye journeymen, hello
pimples.
We’re as big a sucker for the young guns as you are. But con-
cerned is warranted about the precipitous drop in rookie scoring
since the lockout. The drop-off is acute – 106, 85, 72, 57 and most
recently 55 points led the rookie scoring race in each of the last
five seasons. Fifty-five is fine if you’re a winger, but it makes you
useless as a center in a single-year league.
Guys like Taylor Hall and Mathieu Perreault may buck this trend;
you’ll find profiles of both below. Their production in single-year
leagues may just make them roster-worthy in standard 12-team
leagues. But unless you’re a rich man, your steak will invariably
taste a whole lot better with some marinade. Here are some tasty
young guys with a just a bit more seasoning.
CENTER
(Standard, 12-team leagues have 24 active centers. Last season,
the 24th best center scored 61 points.)
Derick Brassard, C, Columbus – Sigh – so much talent, so
much risk. He’s a gifted skater with buttery soft hands but he’s
starting to get a rep for fragility. He struggled mightily last season
and saw his ice time plummet, even after Ken Hitchcock hit the
unemployment line. A rebound is in order; so is a job on the sec-
ond line. And maybe even 60 points. Just hope for good health.
Matt Duchene, Colorado – Duchene would have been rookie-of-
the-year last season had Tyler Myers played like a 19-year-old
rookie defender. Duchene’s 55 points were third best and his 24
goals were second on a surprising Colorado squad, and his
speed/skill combination tormented even the most experienced NHL
defenders. He’s super-low maintenance and the ultimate in coach-
ability. Expect 70 points this year and 80 next.
Sam Gagner, C, Edmonton – Gagner feels like a grizzled veter-
an but he’s still just 21. Last year’s disappointment is far in the
rear-view and he’s poised for a 60-point year. If anything, the
Pimple Line of Gagner, Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle will provide
plenty of shake-and-bake this year.
Peter Mueller, C/LW, Colorado – Just when you thought about
tossing him on the bone pile of failed prospects, Mueller hit the
mile-high city and exploded for 20 points, including nine goals, in
just 15 games. Maybe he just didn’t like the heat and sand. His
best value comes on the left side, the spot he occupied beside
Matt Duchene and Milan Hejduk after his arrival last season. Dual
eligibility will come soon enough but be wary of his fragility; injuries
have become a far-too-common occurrence for him.
T.J. Oshie, C/RW, St. Louis – Oshie would be the second coming
if he played in a major Canadian market. But instead, he toils in
relative anonymity in St. Louis. That anonymity is about to come to
an end. He’s rolling as a right winger on the Blues’ top line and
there he’ll jump to a 60-point stanza. His ceiling is much higher but
he throws his body around like he’s Alexander Ovechkin; trouble is
he’s two inches shorter and 30 pounds lighter than the Gr8 one.
Enjoy the ride; understand the risk.
Mathieu Perreault, C, Washington – Talk about opportunity. The
Caps didn’t sign a second-line center this summer so voila – the
job goes to this 5-9, 165 pound energy specialist. He hasn’t earned
the job yet but it’s there for the taking. It’s hard to gauge his output
but he’s worth a flyer – his wingers would likely be Alexander
Semin and Tomas Fleishmann. Meow.
Peter Regin, C/RW, Ottawa – The Great Dane was arguably the
Sens’ best forward at the end of last season and is a major sleeper
for this year. He should start this year on the wing beside Jason
Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson, and will quickly prove to be a far
better fantasy bet than Milan Michalek. Draft and then wait for his
eligibility on wing.
Jordan Staal, C, Pittsburgh – This is the season the Pens finally
tap his keg. The team has finally given up on the Evgeni Malkin
faceoff experiment (oy vey) and will shift him to the left side in
camp. And that means Staal shifts up to the second line as
Malkin’s pivot. That’s quite an upgrade over his usual stiffs, er ...
wingmen. He used to be the best third-line center in the NHL. He’ll
soon be one of the best second-line pivots. Mark my words.
John Tavares, C, NY Islanders – Phil Esposito. Dale Hawerchuk.
We’ll take either comp, thank you; this kid is a stud. His release
freezes twine-tenders and his game down low is borderline elite.
He has something to prove after a Calder trophy snub; he’ll deliver.
Remember Steven Stamkos circa 2009-10?
LEFT WING
(Standard, 12-team leagues have 24 active left wingers. Last sea-
son, the 24th best left winger scored 51 points.)
Jamie Benn, LW/RW, Dallas – OMG. How often does a fifth-round
pick rocket up the charts to finish third in rookie goal scoring (22)
and fifth in points (41) just two years from his draft day? He’s des-
tined for greatness and has the smarts, size and skill to be a top-
line winger. Fifty-five to 60 points are within reach this year along-
side Mike Ribeiro and Brendan Morrow; 80 will come within a cou-
ple more.
Troy Brouwer, LW/RW, Chicago – Opportunity knocks and this
25-year-old is ready to step up with career numbers alongside –
make sure you’re sitting down – Jonathan Toews and Patrick
Kane. Fifty points and 80 PIMs are on tap for this burgeoning
power forward. Take a chance.
Nikita Filatov, LW, Columbus – He’s an elite talent – skills,
speed, imagination… you name it, he’s got it. But he’s also a top-
notch prima donna with a propensity for toddler-like tantrums. He’s
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YOUNG GUNS - YOUTH IS SERVED (cont ...)
going to end up on a scoring line by mid-season and will dazzle in
bursts. Eyeball him as a reserve pick and hope for a home run.
Taylor Hall, LW, Edmonton – Love this guy – he’s the complete
package. And someone in your league will snap him up. It hap-
pens every year. But his supporting cast is sketchy (to say the
least) and the NHL is a very different beast than the OHL. He may
deliver a 50-point season but if so, it’ll be back-weighted just like
Steven Stamkos’ rookie year. Be cautious.
Milan Lucic, LW, Boston – Looch returns to cult status this sea-
son; expect close to 50 points and at least 125 PIMs. After all, a
Lucic – Marc Savard – Nathan Horton power line will overwhelm
all but the very best (and biggest) opposing studs.
James Neal, LW, Dallas – Neal is a aggressive, blue-collar
winger with size whose chemistry with Brad Richards and Loui
Eriksson on the Stars’ top line netted him 27 goals and 55 points
last year. His only drawback? He doesn’t see top-line power-play
time. Still, a 30/60 campaign is on tap.
David Perron, LW, St. Louis – Perron’s puck skills are flat-out
electric but he’s maddeningly inconsistent. He took a small step
backwards last season, particularly on the defensive side of the
ledger. But Perron and the Blues should rebound, and the nifty
playmaker will jump his production into the high 50s. From there,
the sky’s the limit.
Mason Raymond, LW, Vancouver – This skinny little speed mer-
chant exploded on the scene last year, more than doubling his
previous highs. Expect a consolidation year from him – the
league is about to turn up the heat. That said, a mid-50s tally
should be good enough to help your team.
James van Riemsdyk, LW, Philadelphia – JvR may have had an
up-and-down rookie season but the talent is there. And so is the
second-line left winger’s job. He’s still worth 50 points if he slips to
the third line so weight your cheat sheets accordingly.
Kris Versteeg, LW, Toronto – Who cares if he’s only 5-10 and
180 pounds? Versteeg shows up to play every single game and
brings speed, energy and skill to an otherwise flat Leafs’ lineup.
Have you seen him dangle? Wow. Then the next shift, he’ll strip
the puck from an opponent and score shorthanded. He managed
to sit sixth in scoring without cracking the top-10 in ice time on a
very deep Chicago squad. His ice time is going up in Toronto; so
will his output.
RIGHT WING
(Standard, 12-team leagues have 24 active right wingers. Last
season, the 24th best right winger scored 51 points.)
Niclas Bergfors, RW, Atlanta – Some lost faith in this guy a cou-
ple years ago. But he opened eyes last season when he hit the
land of peaches – he almost matched Ilya Kovalchuk’s goal-scor-
ing pace after the infamous trade. And this season’s influx of
brawn will help this little brown bird flourish. In fact, he could deliv-
er 30 goals and 60 points. Watch for him to take flight on the PP,
too.
Steve Downie, RW, Tampa Bay – Downie somehow learned how
to the walk the line last season – go figure. He went from being a
hotheaded, suspension-prone jerk to a scoring-line sensation who
delivered points and PIMs, 208 in fact. Downie has the tools and
talent to re-earn his job of grunt on the Steven Stamkos-Marty St.
Louis line. And when he does, he’ll be the only guy in the league
to hit that elusive 50/200 plateau. Wow.
Michael Frolik, RW, Florida – Baby Jagr let owners down last
year, but he won’t fail you this year. Tack on at least 10 points to
his mediocre 43 last season; just be wary of his supporting cast.
He’s pretty much alone on that island which will make for some
tough slogging at times.
Claude Giroux, RW, Philadelphia – Get ready, set… FIRE! The
Giroux rocket is about to explode. His postseason performance
(21 points in 23 games) points to the same kind of post-playoff
leap we saw in Ryan Getzlaf a few years back. Even on a deep
Philly squad, he’ll crack 65 points. And it won’t be long before he’s
knocking on Jeff Carter’s door for the team scoring lead.
Nathan Horton, RW, Boston – Horton has finally found his Who.
His vast, untapped potential will finally be revealed now that he
has a quality pivot beside him. He’ll find chemistry with one of
Marc Savard, David Krejci or Patrice Bergeron.Expect 30 goals
and 70 points … as long as he stays healthy.
Jiri Hudler, RW, Detroit – Two words: he’s back. And a lot of peo-
ple will forget about him on draft day. This 26-year-old is pushing
the limit on “young” as far as this list goes but he’s a veritable
babe-in-arms on an elderly Red Wings squad. He’ll pot 60 points
in his sleep; 70 are a distinct possibility.
Joe Pavelski, RW/C, San Jose – Little Joe is the kind of guy
you’d follow into a street fight without even knowing why you’re
there – he’s just that kind of leader. Like Hudler, he’s 26 but his
stock just continues to rise. He’s about to get the captain’s C and
even with the added pressure, he’ll ratchet up his game. Seventy-
five points aren’t out of the question. That’s elite.
Wayne Simmonds, RW, Los Angeles – Love this guy. He’s light-
ning fast and tough as nails, and was one of just nine guys with at
least 40 points and 100 PIMs last season. He’s a multi-category
stud whose only drawback right now is his lack of power-play time
(all of his points came at even strength). But that’s minor given his
other skills. He’s growing into a prototypical power forward and
he’s ahead of the usual growth curve.
Chris Stewart, RW, Colorado – Stewart proved us wrong last
year; we thought he needed more time. He’s yet another power
forward developing ahead of the curve – 30/65 with close to 100
PIMs are on their way.
Jakub Voracek, RW, Columbus – This slick playmaker got his
get-out-of-jail-free card after 58 games last season – that’s when
taskmaster coach Ken Hitchcock was given the boot – and he
promptly tore things up with 22 points in his last 24 games. New
coach Scott Arniel is going to keep the floodgates open this sea-
son and this uber-talented Czech is about to explode. Seventy
points is possible; mid-60s is more like it.
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Brandon Yip, RW, Colorado –If you’re a sucker for late-round
picks who over-achieve, Mr. Mouthy is one of those guys. Sure,
he’s 25 and has just 32 NHL games under his belt. But he can
skate, has a very good shot and he’s willing to bust his hump to
do whatever his coach asks. A 45-point season would make him a
borderline call in a standard 12-team league. But add a potential
85 PIMs and he starts to rise up the ranks.
DEFENSE
(Standard, 12-team leagues have 48 active defensemen. Last
season, the 48th best defenseman scored 30 points.)
John Carlson, D, Washington – Carlson will soon make Mike
Green expendable in Washington – yes, you read that right. He
has the offensive talent to nearly match Green’s offensive output
and does things that Green doesn’t. Like play sound positional
defense and come up large in clutch situations (yes, he broke my
heart at the World Juniors two years ago, too). He’ll run the sec-
ond power-play unit and tally about 45 points this year. And follow
Tyler Myers as the next rookie-of-the-year.
Mark Giordano, D, Calgary – Giordano’s growth last season was
one of the big reasons the team jettisoned Dion Phaneuf. The 26-
year-old is a good skater and makes a great outlet pass. He’ll start
the season running the team’s second power-play unit and could
graduate to the top unit if Ian White falters. Forty points and 90
PIMs will make him one of the more valuable defenders in stan-
dard leagues.
Erik Karlsson, D, Ottawa – Hear this and hear it now – the arrival
of Sergei Gonchar will not, repeat WILL NOT hurt this emerging
stud. He was the Sens’ best defender by the end of his rookie
season and he’ll be the team’s best all-round blueliner again this
year. Expect 50 points, particularly with that potent power play.
Karlsson, Gonchar, Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson and Alexei
Kovalev. Enough said.
Jamie McBain, D, Carolina – He’ll be eased into action at even
strength this season but he should slot right onto the top power-
play unit. There, he’ll help bring respectability back to last sea-
son’s 20th-best group and come close to 40 points.
Tyler Myers, D, Buffalo – The Sabres thought they might have a
Zdeno Chara on their hands when they drafted this kid; it appears
they have something more. And a whole lot sooner. His rookie
season was outstanding; expect similar output this year.
P.K. Subban, D, Montreal – Subban’s No. 76 jersey was one of
the bestsellers of last year’s playoffs and his magnetic personality
and elite talent have already made him star in bleu, blanc et
rouge. Habs’ coach Jacques Martin, a man notoriously conserva-
tive with rookies and offensive studs, tried to ease him into playoff
action last year. But by his fourth postseason contest, Subban
logged more than 23 minutes. He’s ready for anything, including
45-50 points.
Ian White, D, Calgary – The role of power-play quarterback in
Calgary is wide open and either White or Giordano (above) will
assume the mantle (you don’t honestly think Jay Bouwmeester is
going to do it, do you?). White is small but he’s a maestro walking
the line. My money is on him. If so, mid-40s is an easy target.
Keith Yandle, D, Phoenix – Yandle is one of my favorite fantasy
defenders and this year, he’s going to make the leap to top-15
league-wide. At just 24, he’s already the quarterback for the
Desert Dawgs, and we’re counting on a 50-point season this year.
That includes 16 goals. Go get him.
GOAL
(Standard, 12-team leagues have 24 active netminders. Last sea-
son, the 24th best goalie delivered 22 wins, a 2.65 goals-against
average and a .909 save percentage.)
Jonathan Bernier, G, Los Angeles – He has nothing to prove in
the AHL and will almost immediately push Jonathan Quick for
playing time. After all, Quick was worn down by the weight of last
year’s workload and Bernier starred in his limited role. A timeshare
may come; more is possible. So is a Calder nomination.
Jimmy Howard, G, Detroit – The Wings may be getting older but
they still know how to win. Howard’s Calder nomination wasn’t a
fluke. Forty wins are on tap.
Steve Mason, G, Columbus – His sophomore slump is far, far in
the rear-view mirror. A rebound to his Calder form will come; get
on board now.
Michal Neuvirth, G, Washington – He’s almost as good as
Semyon Varlamov (below), who’ll be given the starter’s role. And
given Semyon’s propensity for injury, stash this talented Czech on
my roster and simply wait for the inevitable.
Tuukka Rask, G, Boston – How much better can this fantastic,
23-year-old Finn get? He stole Tim Thomas’ job last season and
delivered league leading numbers (1.97 goals-against average
and .931 save percentage) behind a team that finished 30th in
league scoring. He’ll receive consideration for the Vezina this
year; yes, he’s that good.
Semyon Varlamov, G, Washington – Health is the only thing that
will hold this kid back. He has a history lower-body injuries and
that makes us a bit wary. But a healthy Varlamov coupled with the
potent Caps’ offense will deliver 40 wins. He may not deliver top-
five GAA or SV% but top-10 will do just fine.