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258 Relisilty evalustion of power systems 1e random sequence of failure event se poss be expected given average behaviour ible. They are use system as a function of input data to an economic eval of such schemes. 8.6 Inclusion of weather effects 8.6.1 Concepts system networks are exposed to vi ‘component can be mai favourable weather con (and any other en ion. During 1 ly and the probabi very much greater than that in favourable w is known as the bunching effect due to the fact that component ability indices evaluated for a load point can be over-oy and consequently very misleading. It should be noted that the techniques used to account for failure bunching do not imply that there is dependence between the failures of components. Although the components may reside within a common environment which affects the failure rates of the components, the actual failure process of overlapping outages still assumes the component fail- ures to be independent, There is no suggestion therefore that the process is @ common mode or dependent failure, onl 1¢ independent failure ‘are enhanced because of the common environment. js also worth noting that, although the following techniques are described in relation to a common weather environment, they are equally applicable to failure processes in other types of varying environment such as temperature, stress, etc 8.6.2 Weather state modelling The failure rate of a component is @ continuous fi Which suggests that it should be described either by a ‘nv Distribution systems—parallel and meshed networks 259 rnough to make the s E Standard [7] subdivides the weather em id echniqns have been reason Why two-state weather mo past. The criterion for deciding into must be placed is dependent on nents. Those weather conditions having little or rate should be classed as normal and those h: classed as adverse. Examples of adverse weat tzales, typhoons, snow and ice. h category each ty spact on the failure rate of compo- of weather effect on the failure a large effect should be include lightning storms, periods of normal and adverse weather must be collated even if no ures occur during any given period. This point cannot be stressed 100 greatly since it is of little use allocating a particular failure event to normal weather or adverse aspect requires cooperation between the utility and the appropriate weather bureau or weather centre.J Failure to collect such st ill mean significant errors, variation as depicted in Fig. 8.4. ‘The pattern of durations of weather can be co process which can then be described by expected values, sred a random .e. expected duration of normal weather is given by N= 5; n/T and expected duration oe | Sees) = 1 s eres Fig. 84 Chronological var