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Contents

Strategies of 2 parties .................................................................................................................................... 2


Timeline: ....................................................................................................................................................... 3
FORCAST .................................................................................................................................................... 6
Recommendation for VN .............................................................................................................................. 7
Tài liệu tham khảo: ....................................................................................................................................... 8
Strategies of 2 parties
1) US
The US president, Donald Trump has imposed taxes on imports from China, Mexico, Canada
and the EU. The US has imposed three rounds of tariffs on Chinese products in 2018, totalling
$250bn worth of goods.
The first two rounds placed 25% tariffs on $50bn worth of imports from China, and Beijing
retaliated in kind. Those taxes will take effect from 24 September, starting at 10% and increasing
to 25% from the start of next year unless the two countries agree a deal.

The reason behind this action is that Mr Trump says he wants to stop the "unfair transfers of
American technology and intellectual property to China" and protect jobs. The US’s new trade
barriers are designed to penalize China for doing things like forcing foreign businesses to hand
over their most prized technology to Chinese companies — many of which are state-owned — in
exchange for access to their market.

Tariffs, in theory, will make US-made products cheaper than imported ones, so encourage
consumers to buy American. The idea is they would boost local businesses and support the
national economy.

The US is targeting high-tech Chinese goods to put economic pressure on Beijing’s “Made in
China 2025” program — a Chinese government initiative to transform China into an advanced
manufacturing powerhouse.
2) China
China responded the first tariff action by imposing 25 percent tariffs on $34 billion worth of
US goods, including soybeans, automobiles, and lobsters.
China has deliberately targeted big US agricultural exports like soybeans that come from states
in the heart of Trump country, where neither the president nor his party want to see economic
instability or job losses right before the 2018 midterm elections.
3) Overall

Total US tariffs applied exclusively to China: US$250 billion

Total Chinese tariffs applied exclusively to US: US$110 billion


Timeline:
DATE U.S. ACTION CHINESE ACTION
Feb 7 2018 The US implements ‘global safeguard tariffs’
– placing a 30 percent tariff on all solar panel
imports, except for those from Canada, (worth
US$8.5 billion) and a 20 percent tariff on
washing machine imports (worth US$1.8
billion).
March 9 Trump signed a 25 percent and 10 percent
2018 tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from
all nations, including China.
March 22 U.S. proposed tariffs in response to China’s
2018 "unfair trade practices” related to technology
transfer, IP, and innovation; says it will
complain to WTO and look at restricting
investment from China.
March 23 US complained to WTO about Chinese
2018 protection of IP.
April 2, China imposes tariffs (ranging 15-25
2018: percent) on 128 products (worth US$3
billion) including fruit, wine, seamless steel
pipes, pork and recycled aluminium in
retaliation to the US’ steel and aluminium
tariffs.
April 3, The USTR releases an initial list of 1,334
2018 proposed products (worth US$50 billion)
subject to a potential 25 percent tariff (list
revised June 15).
April 4, China reacts to USTR’s initial list, and
2018 proposes 25 percent tariffs to be applied on
106 products (worth US$50 billion) on
goods such as soybeans, automobile,
chemicals (list revised on June 16).
April 16, US Department of Commerce concludes that
2018: Chinese telecom company ZTE violated US
sanctions. US companies are banned from
doing business with ZTE for seven years.
April 17, China announces antidumping duties of
2018: 178.6 percent on imports of sorghum from
the US.
May 3-7, US-China engage in trade talks in Beijing, where the US demands that China reduce the trade
2018 gap by US$200 billion within two years. Talks end with no resolution.
May 18, China’s Commerce Ministry announces that
2018 it will stop tariffs on US sorghum at
negotiations.
May 20, US and China agree to put the trade war on hold after China reportedly agrees to buy more
2018: US goods.
May 29, US reinstates tariff plans after brief truce.
2018:
June 4-5, Two days of trade talks between US and China held in Beijing.
2018
June 15, Initial list of products reduced and finalized. List 1 now implements a 25 percent tariff on a
2018 reduced 818 products (from 1,334) and is set to take effect on July 6, 2018. List 2 of 284 new
products is also announced and under consideration.
June 16, China revises its initial tariff list (25 percent on 106 products) to now include a 25 percent
2018: tariff on 545 products (valued at US$34 billion). This tariff will take effect July 6, 2018.
China also proposes a second round of 25 percent tariffs on a further 114 products (valued at
US$16 billion).
July 10, The USTR releases a third list of tariffs (List
2018 3) of over 6,000 commodities originating in
China (worth US$200 billion), which will be
subject to a 10 percent tariff.
August 2, The USTR, at the direction of Trump,
2018 considers a 25 percent tariff rather than a 10
percent one on List 3. The list targets
approximately US$200 billion worth of
goods.
August 3, China announces second round of tariffs on
2018 US products. China’s Ministry of Commerce
proposes a range of additional tariffs on
5,207 products originating from the US
(worth US$60 billion)
August 7, US releases a revised version of tariffs on a China’s Ministry of Commerce announces a
2018 final list of US$16 billion worth of imports reciprocal 25 percent additional tariff on
from China (List 2). Set to take effect August US$16 billion of US exports to China,
23, List 2 announces that the US$16 billion of effective August 23, 2018.
imports will now be subject to a 25 percent
tariff rather than previously announced 10
percent.
August 14, China files WTO claim against US for its
2018 tariffs on solar panels, alleging that US
tariffs have damaged China’s trade interests.
August 22- US and Chinese mid-level representatives meet for the first time since early in the trade war
23, 2018 to resolve the deepening trade conflict and escalating tariffs. Discussions end with no major
breakthroughs.
August 23, US implements a 25 percent tariff on 279 China implements retaliatory 25 percent
2018 goods originating from China (worth US$16 tariffs on 333 goods originating from the US
billion). (worth US$16 billion)
China also files a new WTO complaint
against the United States’ Section 301 tariffs
on Chinese goods issued on August 23
under List 2 (25 percent tariffs on US$16
billion).
September US finalizes tariffs on US$200 billion of
17, 2018 Chinese goods
September China announces that it will implement
18, 2018 – tariffs on US$60 billion worth of US
goods
September China cancels trade talks with US
22, 2018 –
September The US implements tariffs on US$200 billion China responds to US tariffs by
24, 2018 worth of Chinese goods (List 3), bringing the implementing tariffs on US$60 billion worth
total amount to US$250 billion. of US goods (List 3).
October 25, US and China officials resume contact.The officials are reportedly preparing for Trump
2018 and Xi to meet on the sidelines of November’s G20 meetings in Argentina.
October The US is reportedly prepared to announce
30, 2018 tariffs on all remaining Chinese products by
early December if talks between Trump and
Xi at the G20 in Argentina are not successful.
November US releases list of proposed export controls
19, 2018 – on emerging technologies. According to the
proposed rules, emerging technologies such
as artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and
quantum computing could be subject to
export controls because they are dual-use
technologies that could be used for military
purposes.
December US and China agree to temporary truce. Both the US and China will refrain from
2, 2018 – increasing tariffs or imposing new tariffs for 90 days (until March 1, 2019), as the two
sides work towards a larger trade deal.
December China to temporarily lower tariffs on US
14, 2018 autos; resumes buying US soybean exports

January US and China hold 2-day trade talks in Washington D.C. China offers to buy five million
30-31, 2019 tons of US soybeans.

February The US and China hold trade talks in Beijing.
11-15, 2019
February US and China hold trade talks in Washington. Trump extends tariff deadline
21-24, 2019
FORCAST
Multiple rounds of talks have taken place between trade representatives from the two countries in
Washington DC and Beijing, and hopes for an imminent settlement are increasing. A 90-day
trade ceasefire has now been indefinitely postponed by President Trump who announced that he
expects a visit from President Xi in March to finalize a trade deal. Here are some predictions for
the end of the trade war between China and America:
1) Trump and Xi will agree on a trade deal that forestalls further tariffs.
The two sides are actively engaged in negotiating terms of a settlement. A final deal may well
include substantial concessions from Beijing. Even so, the trade math hasn’t changed. There’s
virtually no way China can buy enough American soybeans, jets, or natural gas to achieve
Trump’s goal of reducing the Chinese surplus to zero. And it remains unlikely Beijing will
commit to specific verifiable targets for measuring China’s performance in protecting U.S.
intellectual property rights.
2) China’s leaders will tighten their grip on China’s technology sector, obliging public and
private tech firms to prioritize governance and regulatory compliance over growth and
innovation. Beijing recently ended a months-long clampdown on new online games. But China’s
old policy of benign neglect for disruptive technologies is over. In recent months, the state has
expanded censorship of the Internet, imposed new restrictions on tech companies’ involvement
in financial services, stepped up oversight of ride-hailing giant Didi Chuxing, and demanded
more patriotic content from Beijing Bytedance’s Toutiao news aggregator. The Chinese scientist
who boasted late last year of making genetically edited babies has been detained.
3) China’s economy will continue to slow, its debt to GDP ratio will grow and its
domestic stock markets will languish. Martin Wolf, in a recent column, makes the case
that China, like 1980s Japan, could fall victim to “ultra-high investment and rapid debt
accumulation.”
4) Cross-border investment between the U.S. and China won’t return to past highs ,
thanks in no small part to the new Foreign Investment Risk Review Modernization Act
approved by Congress last August.

5) Huawei Technology will have to fish or cut bait on a strategy for gaining entry to the
U.S. market. In a rare meeting with global press last month, Ken Hu, one of Huawei’s
four deputy co-chairmen, challenged officials from the U.S. and its allies to document
claims that the world’s biggest telecommunications manufacturer poses a cyber -security
threat. But those perceptions are unlikely to change—and Huawei unlikely to participate
in 5G rollouts in some of the world’s most important markets—unless the company’s
leaders do something more than just fulminate about how unfairly they’re being treated.
Recommendation for VN

Although The White House has extended the tariff deadline, Investors still can stop
wandering about the future because of the unstable changes in the past 7 months.
Vietnam with a stable politics and growth rate has been a great destination for foreign
investors, especially from Japan. Therefore, the Vietnamese central and local governments
should adopt a more selective policy in attracting FDI. The local governments should closely
scrutinize and reject investment projects that show signs of rerouting and disguising practices.
However, we are worried that these suggestions cannot be effectively enforced due to legal
barriers and the short-term thinking of local officials. Furthermore, Hanoi may not want to be
criticized by Beijing for specifically targeting Chinese investors.

Vietname should act more decisively against pollution-intensive investments through more
stringent environmental requirements and enforcements. This is an urgent issue that the
government should not neglect—the negative impacts on citizens’ health can be serious and can
worsen Vietnamese citizens’ negative attitudes towards Chinese investors.

To help domestic producers compete with Chinese and US’s exports of food and agricultural
goods, the Vietnamese government needs to be more proactive in helping domestic companies,
especially SMEs, to access capital and promote Vietnamese high-quality brands. Stringent food
safety requirements and promotion of safe and high-quality agricultural products can be effective
solutions in this endeavour.
Tài liệu tham khảo:
https://www.china-briefing.com/news/the-us-china-trade-war-a-timeline/
https://www.vox.com/world/2018/7/6/17542482/china-trump-trade-war-tariffs

http://fortune.com/2019/01/04/data-sheet-china-predictions-trade-war/

https://www.iseas.edu.sg/images/pdf/ISEAS_Perspective_2018_74@50.pdf
https://customsnews.vn/how-does-the-us-china-trade-war-affect-the-exchange-rate-and-trade-of-
vietnam-8777.html