DEMAND FORECASTING

GROUP 9 MPE year II (2013-14 batch)

Jayant Iyer (Roll No: 16)

Mugdha Khandekar (Roll No: 22
Mrinal Singh (Roll No: 51)
Ruth Sequeira (Roll No: 45)
Vinayak Srivastava (Roll No: 52)
 SPC is into the business of supply of recyclable/disposable containers for the food
industry.
 Food containers manufacturing is a two-step process. First polystyrene sheet get wound
into rolls and secondly rolls are loaded into transformation process to convert into
container.
 Plastic for containers are either clear or black.
 Demand for containers made from clear black plastic & are seasonal in nature.
 Capacity on extruders is not sufficient to cover demand for sheets during peak seasons
and therefore company need to build inventory of sheet in anticipation of future
demand.
 Julie Williams is about to be assigned to a team who will be responsible for developing
the demand forecasting model.
 As demand for containers is seasonal and not linear, using the naïve or
moving average methods will not be suitable for SPC.
 Seasonality of demand also can be noticed from following graph where it can
be seen that demand is highest in Q4 and then it goes to least in Q2. However
annual sales is growing year over year.

Black Plastic
14000

12000

10000

8000
Black Plastic
6000 Linear (Black Plastic)

4000

2000

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
 As demand for containers is seasonal and not linear, using the naïve or
moving average methods will not be suitable for SPC.
 Seasonality of demand also can be noticed from following graph where it can
be seen that demand is highest in Q2 and then it goes to least in Q4. However
annual sales is growing year over year so there is trend also.

Clear Plastic
18000

16000

14000

12000

10000
Clear Plastic
8000
Linear (Clear Plastic)
6000

4000

2000

0
0 5 10 15 20 25
Looking at the demand for containers Julie Williams & team can evaluate from
the following four methods:

 Static Regression Method

 Trend & Seasonality Corrected Exponential Smoothing Method
 Trend Corrected Exponential Smoothing Method
 Simple Exponential Smoothing Method
 In this first de-seasonalized demand has been computed for T3 to T18 using
following formulae:

 Here p is number of periods in a year which is 4 in this case.

 Intercept and slope has been computed using excel formulae for deseasonalized
demand of T3 to T18 with respect to T.
 Using intercept and slope deasonalized demand has been computed for each
period using following formulae:
Intercept + Slope*t
 Seasonal factors has been computed for each period i.e. actual
demand/deseasonalized demand.
 Average of seasonal factors has been computed for each quarters.
 Forecast for each period has been computed using following formulae
Ft = (Intercept + Slope*t)*Season Factor of Quarter

 MSE, MAD, MAPE & TS has been computed for forecast demand.
 Level for Period 0 has been computed by taking average of actual demand.

 Level for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
Lt = D* α + (1-α)*Lt-1

 Forecast of each period is equal to Level of immediately preceding period.

 MSE, MAD, MAPE & TS has been computed for forecast demand.
 Level for Period 0 has been computed by computing intercept of deseaonalized demand
computed under static method. Similarly Trend for Period 0 has been computed by
computing slope of deseasonalized demand.

 For all four periods of first year seasonal factor has been taken same which was computed
under static method.
 Level for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
Lt = D/Seasonal Factor* α + (1-α)*(Lt-1+TRt-1)

 Trend for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
TRt = (Lt - Lt -1 )* β + (1- β)*TRt-1

 Seasonal factors for 2nd year onward has been computed using following formulae:
S5 = D1/Seasonal Factor of Period 1* ϓ + (1- ϓ)*Seasonal Factor of Period
1
 In similar way S6, S7 …. Can be computed by dragging the formulae up to Perio 20.
 Forecast of each period will be computed by following formulae:
Ft=(Lt-1+TRt-1)*St

 MSE, MAD, MAPE & TS has been computed for forecast demand.
 Level for Period 0 has been computed by computing intercept of actual demand. Similarly
Trend for Period 0 has been computed by computing slope of actual demand.

 Level for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
Lt = D* α + (1-α)*Lt-1

 Trend for succeeding period has been computed using following formulae:
TRt = (Lt - Lt -1 )* β + (1- β)*TRt-1

 Forecast of each period is equal to sum of Level and Trend of immediately

preceding period.

 MSE, MAD, MAPE & TS has been computed for forecast demand.
 Intercept Slope
2,592.75 226.86
Deseason Deseason
Time Black Seasonal
lized lized Forecast Error Abs. Errror MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
Period Plastic Factor
Demand Demand
0
1 2250 2,819.60 0.80 2,535.61 285.61 285.61 81,573.45 285.61 12.69 12.69 1.00
2 1737 3,046.46 0.57 1,824.45 87.45 87.45 44,610.42 186.53 5.03 8.86 2.00
3 2412 3,575 3,273.32 0.74 2,283.37 (128.63) 128.63 35,255.80 167.23 5.33 7.69 1.46
4 7269 3,784 3,500.17 2.08 6,301.32 (967.68) 967.68 260,542.20 367.34 13.31 9.09 (1.97)
5 3514 3,965 3,727.03 0.94 3,351.64 (162.36) 162.36 213,706.06 326.35 4.62 8.20 (2.71)
6 2143 4,070 3,953.88 0.54 2,367.88 224.88 224.88 186,517.11 309.44 10.49 8.58 (2.14)
7 3459 4,119 4,180.74 0.83 2,916.36 (542.64) 542.64 201,937.57 342.75 15.69 9.60 (3.51)
8 7056 4,272 4,407.59 1.60 7,934.95 878.95 878.95 273,263.80 409.78 12.46 9.95 (0.79)
9 4120 4,237 4,634.45 0.89 4,167.66 47.66 47.66 243,153.59 369.54 1.16 8.98 (0.75)
10 2766 4,274 4,861.31 0.57 2,911.32 145.32 145.32 220,949.92 347.12 5.25 8.60 (0.38)
11 2556 4,595 5,088.16 0.50 3,549.35 993.35 993.35 290,567.48 405.87 38.86 11.36 2.12
12 8253 4,969 5,315.02 1.55 9,568.57 1,315.57 1,315.57 410,580.97 481.68 15.94 11.74 4.52
13 5491 5,390 5,541.87 0.99 4,983.69 (507.31) 507.31 398,794.86 483.65 9.24 11.55 3.45
14 4382 6,083 5,768.73 0.76 3,454.75 (927.25) 927.25 431,723.27 515.33 21.16 12.23 1.44
15 4315 6,575 5,995.59 0.72 4,182.34 (132.66) 132.66 404,114.95 489.82 3.07 11.62 1.25
16 12035 6,509 6,222.44 1.93 11,202.20 (832.80) 832.80 422,205.32 511.26 6.92 11.33 (0.44)
17 5648 6,490 6,449.30 0.88 5,799.72 151.72 151.72 398,723.75 490.11 2.69 10.82 (0.14)
18 3696 6,688 6,676.15 0.55 3,998.18 302.18 302.18 381,645.48 479.67 8.18 10.67 0.48
19 4843 6,903.01 0.70 4,815.33 (27.67) 27.67 361,599.16 455.88 0.57 10.14 0.45
20 13097 7,129.87 1.84 12,835.82 (261.18) 261.18 346,929.90 446.14 1.99 9.73 (0.13)

Seasonal Factor
Seasonal Factor(Static
Qtrs
Method)
Q1 0.90
Q2 0.60
Q3 0.70
Q4 1.80
 Time Black
Level(L) Forecast Error Abs. Errror MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
Period Plastic
0 5,052.10
1 2250 5,049.30 5,052.10 2,802.10 2,802.10 7,851,764.41 2,802.10 124.54 124.54 1.00
2 1737 5,045.99 5,049.30 3,312.30 3,312.30 9,411,540.89 3,057.20 190.69 157.61 2.00
3 2412 5,043.35 5,045.99 2,633.99 2,633.99 8,586,987.31 2,916.13 109.20 141.48 3.00
4 7269 5,045.58 5,043.35 (2,225.65) 2,225.65 7,678,618.17 2,743.51 30.62 113.76 2.38
5 3514 5,044.05 5,045.58 1,531.58 1,531.58 6,612,040.32 2,501.12 43.59 99.73 3.22
6 2143 5,041.14 5,044.05 2,901.05 2,901.05 6,912,711.28 2,567.78 135.37 105.67 4.27
7 3459 5,039.56 5,041.14 1,582.14 1,582.14 6,282,778.48 2,426.97 45.74 97.11 5.17
8 7056 5,041.58 5,039.56 (2,016.44) 2,016.44 6,005,683.69 2,375.65 28.58 88.54 4.43
9 4120 5,040.66 5,041.58 921.58 921.58 5,432,753.03 2,214.09 22.37 81.19 5.17
10 2766 5,038.38 5,040.66 2,274.66 2,274.66 5,406,884.34 2,220.15 82.24 81.29 6.18
11 2556 5,035.90 5,038.38 2,482.38 2,482.38 5,475,551.57 2,243.99 97.12 82.73 7.22
12 8253 5,039.12 5,035.90 (3,217.10) 3,217.10 5,881,733.13 2,325.08 38.98 79.09 5.58
13 5491 5,039.57 5,039.12 (451.88) 451.88 5,444,999.65 2,180.99 8.23 73.64 5.75
14 4382 5,038.91 5,039.57 657.57 657.57 5,086,956.63 2,072.17 15.01 69.45 6.36
15 4315 5,038.19 5,038.91 723.91 723.91 4,782,762.74 1,982.29 16.78 65.94 7.02
16 12035 5,045.18 5,038.19 (6,996.81) 6,996.81 7,543,551.36 2,295.70 58.14 65.45 3.01
17 5648 5,045.79 5,045.18 (602.82) 602.82 7,121,188.71 2,196.11 10.67 62.23 2.87
18 3696 5,044.44 5,045.79 1,349.79 1,349.79 6,826,785.24 2,149.10 36.52 60.80 3.57
19 4843 5,044.24 5,044.44 201.44 201.44 6,469,616.39 2,046.59 4.16 57.82 3.84
20 13097 5,052.29 5,044.24 (8,052.76) 8,052.76 9,388,485.80 2,346.90 61.49 58.00 (0.08)
 α β
0.001 0.100
Time Black
Level(L) Trend(T) Forecast Error Abs. Errror MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
Period Plastic
0 2,042.74 286.61
1 2250 2,042.94 257.97 2,329.34 79.34 79.34 6,295.29 79.34 3.53 3.53 1.00
2 1737 2,042.64 232.14 2,300.91 563.91 563.91 162,145.03 321.63 32.46 18.00 2.00
3 2412 2,043.01 208.96 2,274.78 (137.22) 137.22 114,373.39 260.16 5.69 13.89 1.95
4 7269 2,048.23 188.59 2,251.97 (5,017.03) 5,017.03 6,378,428.81 1,449.38 69.02 27.67 (3.11)
5 3514 2,049.70 169.88 2,236.82 (1,277.18) 1,277.18 5,428,979.83 1,414.94 36.35 29.41 (4.09)
6 2143 2,049.79 152.90 2,219.58 76.58 76.58 4,525,127.16 1,191.88 3.57 25.10 (4.79)
7 3459 2,051.20 137.75 2,202.69 (1,256.31) 1,256.31 4,104,153.82 1,201.08 36.32 26.71 (5.80)
8 7056 2,056.21 124.47 2,188.95 (4,867.05) 4,867.05 6,552,155.63 1,659.33 68.98 31.99 (7.13)
9 4120 2,058.27 112.23 2,180.68 (1,939.32) 1,939.32 6,242,022.52 1,690.44 47.07 33.67 (8.15)
10 2766 2,058.98 101.08 2,170.50 (595.50) 595.50 5,653,281.83 1,580.94 21.53 32.45 (9.09)
11 2556 2,059.48 91.02 2,160.06 (395.94) 395.94 5,153,598.87 1,473.22 15.49 30.91 (10.02)
12 8253 2,065.67 82.54 2,150.50 (6,102.50) 6,102.50 7,827,510.21 1,858.99 73.94 34.50 (11.23)
13 5491 2,069.09 74.63 2,148.21 (3,342.79) 3,342.79 8,084,952.23 1,973.13 60.88 36.53 (12.27)
14 4382 2,071.41 67.40 2,143.72 (2,238.28) 2,238.28 7,865,304.76 1,992.07 51.08 37.56 (13.28)
15 4315 2,073.65 60.88 2,138.80 (2,176.20) 2,176.20 7,656,673.18 2,004.34 50.43 38.42 (14.28)
16 12035 2,083.61 55.79 2,134.53 (9,900.47) 9,900.47 13,304,335.46 2,497.85 82.26 41.16 (15.42)
17 5648 2,087.18 50.57 2,139.40 (3,508.60) 3,508.60 13,245,860.76 2,557.31 62.12 42.40 (16.44)
18 3696 2,088.79 45.67 2,137.74 (1,558.26) 1,558.26 12,644,877.65 2,501.80 42.16 42.38 (17.42)
19 4843 2,091.54 41.38 2,134.46 (2,708.54) 2,708.54 12,365,474.09 2,512.68 55.93 43.10 (18.43)
20 13097 2,102.54 38.34 2,132.92 (10,964.08) 10,964.08 17,757,754.39 2,935.25 83.71 45.13 (19.51)
 α β ϓ
0.001 0.100 0.200

Time Black Seasonal Abs.

Level(L) Trend(T) Forecast Error MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
Period Plastic Factor Errror

0 2,592.75 226.86
1 2250 2,819.29 226.82 0.90 2,535.61 285.61 285.61 81,573.45 285.61 12.69 12.69 1.00
2 1737 3,045.96 226.81 0.60 1,824.24 87.24 87.24 44,592.14 186.43 5.02 8.86 2.00
3 2412 3,272.96 226.83 0.70 2,282.99 (129.01) 129.01 35,276.05 167.29 5.35 7.69 1.46
4 7269 3,500.32 226.88 1.80 6,300.63 (968.37) 968.37 260,892.21 367.56 13.32 9.10 (1.97)
5 3514 3,727.48 226.91 0.88 3,276.36 (237.64) 237.64 220,008.60 341.57 6.76 8.63 (2.82)
6 2143 3,954.04 226.87 0.59 2,345.56 202.56 202.56 190,178.59 318.40 9.45 8.77 (2.39)
7 3459 4,181.64 226.95 0.71 2,949.41 (509.59) 509.59 200,107.52 345.72 14.73 9.62 (3.67)
8 7056 4,407.98 226.89 1.86 8,180.42 1,124.42 1,124.42 333,134.23 443.05 15.94 10.41 (0.33)
9 4120 4,634.85 226.88 0.89 4,133.27 13.27 13.27 296,138.87 395.30 0.32 9.29 (0.33)
10 2766 4,861.62 226.87 0.58 2,833.99 67.99 67.99 266,987.29 362.57 2.46 8.60 (0.18)
11 2556 5,086.91 226.71 0.73 3,713.55 1,157.55 1,157.55 364,527.40 434.84 45.29 11.94 2.52
12 8253 5,312.88 226.64 1.80 9,588.96 1,335.96 1,335.96 482,881.54 509.93 16.19 12.29 4.77
13 5491 5,540.15 226.70 0.89 4,936.85 (554.15) 554.15 469,358.64 513.34 10.09 12.12 3.65
14 4382 5,768.64 226.88 0.58 3,345.48 (1,036.52) 1,036.52 512,573.56 550.71 23.65 12.95 1.52
15 4315 5,995.83 226.91 0.68 4,102.90 (212.10) 212.10 481,401.03 528.13 4.92 12.41 1.19
16 12035 6,223.38 226.98 1.75 10,916.91 (1,118.09) 1,118.09 529,446.65 565.00 9.29 12.22 (0.87)
17 5648 6,450.10 226.95 0.91 5,877.49 229.49 229.49 501,400.79 545.27 4.06 11.74 (0.48)
18 3696 6,676.37 226.88 0.62 4,113.22 417.22 417.22 483,215.96 538.15 11.29 11.71 0.29
19 4843 6,903.36 226.89 0.69 4,772.89 (70.11) 70.11 458,042.28 513.52 1.45 11.17 0.17
20 13097 7,130.44 226.91 1.79 12,764.96 (332.04) 332.04 440,652.75 504.45 2.54 10.74 (0.49)
 Intercept Slope
3,611.98 263.94
Deseason Deseason
Time Clear Seasonal
lized lized Forecast Error Abs. Errror MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
Period Plastic Factor
Demand Demand
0
1 3200 3,875.92 0.83 2,951.64 (248.36) 248.36 61,681.69 248.36 7.76 7.76 (1.00)
2 7658 4,139.86 1.85 7,862.48 204.48 204.48 51,746.96 226.42 2.67 5.22 (0.19)
3 4420 4,472 4,403.80 1.00 4,174.99 (245.01) 245.01 54,507.91 232.62 5.54 5.32 (1.24)
4 2384 4,657 4,667.74 0.51 1,935.68 (448.32) 448.32 91,129.09 286.54 18.81 8.70 (2.57)
5 3654 4,944 4,931.68 0.74 3,755.64 101.64 101.64 74,969.38 249.56 2.78 7.51 (2.55)
6 8680 5,049 5,195.62 1.67 9,867.60 1,187.60 1,187.60 297,538.89 405.90 13.68 8.54 1.36
7 5695 5,132 5,459.56 1.04 5,175.90 (519.10) 519.10 293,528.78 422.07 9.12 8.62 0.08
8 1953 5,892 5,723.50 0.34 2,373.49 420.49 420.49 278,939.63 421.88 21.53 10.24 1.07
9 4742 6,634 5,987.44 0.79 4,559.64 (182.36) 182.36 251,641.49 395.26 3.85 9.53 0.69
10 13673 6,850 6,251.38 2.19 11,872.71 (1,800.29) 1,800.29 550,580.52 535.77 13.17 9.89 (2.85)
11 6640 6,791 6,515.32 1.02 6,176.80 (463.20) 463.20 520,032.40 529.17 6.98 9.63 (3.77)
12 2737 6,573 6,779.26 0.40 2,811.31 74.31 74.31 477,156.54 491.26 2.72 9.05 (3.90)
13 3486 6,363 7,043.20 0.49 5,363.63 1,877.63 1,877.63 711,645.22 597.91 53.86 12.50 (0.07)
14 13186 6,308 7,307.14 1.80 13,877.83 691.83 691.83 695,001.18 604.62 5.25 11.98 1.08
15 5448 6,932 7,571.08 0.72 7,177.71 1,729.71 1,729.71 848,127.53 679.62 31.75 13.30 3.50
16 3485 7,887 7,835.02 0.44 3,249.13 (235.87) 235.87 798,596.80 651.89 6.77 12.89 3.29
17 7728 8,662 8,098.96 0.95 6,167.63 (1,560.37) 1,560.37 894,841.13 705.33 20.19 13.32 0.83
18 16591 8,989 8,362.90 1.98 15,882.95 (708.05) 708.05 872,979.95 705.48 4.27 12.82 (0.17)
19 8236 8,626.84 0.95 8,178.62 (57.38) 57.38 827,206.94 671.37 0.70 12.18 (0.27)
20 3316 8,890.78 0.37 3,686.94 370.94 370.94 792,726.56 656.35 11.19 12.13 0.29

Seasonal Factor
Seasonal Factor(Static
Qtrs
Method)
Q1 0.76
Q2 1.90
Q3 0.95
Q4 0.41
 α
0.001

Time Clear
Level(L) Forecast Error Abs. Errror MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
Period Plastic
0 6,345.60
1 3200 6,342.45 6,345.60 3,145.60 3,145.60 9,894,799.36 3,145.60 98.30 98.30 1.00
2 7658 6,343.77 6,342.45 (1,315.55) 1,315.55 5,812,729.79 2,230.57 17.18 57.74 0.82
3 4420 6,341.85 6,343.77 1,923.77 1,923.77 5,108,783.46 2,128.31 43.52 53.00 1.76
4 2384 6,337.89 6,341.85 3,957.85 3,957.85 7,747,724.18 2,585.69 166.02 81.25 2.98
5 3654 6,335.20 6,337.89 2,683.89 2,683.89 7,638,830.66 2,605.33 73.45 79.69 3.99
6 8680 6,337.55 6,335.20 (2,344.80) 2,344.80 7,282,036.59 2,561.91 27.01 70.91 3.14
7 5695 6,336.91 6,337.55 642.55 642.55 6,300,727.01 2,287.71 11.28 62.40 3.80
8 1953 6,332.52 6,336.91 4,383.91 4,383.91 7,915,465.86 2,549.74 224.47 82.65 5.13
9 4742 6,330.93 6,332.52 1,590.52 1,590.52 7,317,054.40 2,443.16 33.54 77.20 6.00
10 13673 6,338.27 6,330.93 (7,342.07) 7,342.07 11,975,944.83 2,933.05 53.70 74.85 2.50
11 6640 6,338.58 6,338.27 (301.73) 301.73 10,895,498.79 2,693.84 4.54 68.46 2.61
12 2737 6,334.97 6,338.58 3,601.58 3,601.58 11,068,486.40 2,769.48 131.59 73.72 3.84
13 3486 6,332.13 6,334.97 2,848.97 2,848.97 10,841,422.49 2,775.60 81.73 74.33 4.85
14 13186 6,338.98 6,332.13 (6,853.87) 6,853.87 13,422,434.86 3,066.90 51.98 72.74 2.16
15 5448 6,338.09 6,338.98 890.98 890.98 12,580,528.81 2,921.84 16.35 68.98 2.57
16 3485 6,335.24 6,338.09 2,853.09 2,853.09 12,303,002.85 2,917.54 81.87 69.78 3.55
17 7728 6,336.63 6,335.24 (1,392.76) 1,392.76 11,693,402.30 2,827.85 18.02 66.74 3.17
18 16591 6,346.88 6,336.63 (10,254.37) 10,254.37 16,885,554.60 3,240.44 61.81 66.46 (0.40)
19 8236 6,348.77 6,346.88 (1,889.12) 1,889.12 16,184,670.94 3,169.31 22.94 64.17 (1.00)
20 3316 6,345.74 6,348.77 3,032.77 3,032.77 15,835,322.56 3,162.49 91.46 65.54 (0.04)
 α β
0.001 0.100

Time Clear
Level(L) Trend(T) Forecast Error Abs. Errror MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
Period Plastic
0 4,133.70 210.66
1 3200 4,132.77 189.50 4,344.36 1,144.36 1,144.36 1,309,553.27 1,144.36 35.76 35.76 1.00
2 7658 4,136.29 170.90 4,322.26 (3,335.74) 3,335.74 6,218,342.77 2,240.05 43.56 39.66 (0.98)
3 4420 4,136.58 153.84 4,307.19 (112.81) 112.81 4,149,803.70 1,530.97 2.55 27.29 (1.51)
4 2384 4,134.82 138.28 4,290.41 1,906.41 1,906.41 4,020,956.66 1,624.83 79.97 40.46 (0.24)
5 3654 4,134.34 124.40 4,273.10 619.10 619.10 3,293,422.93 1,423.68 16.94 35.76 0.16
6 8680 4,138.89 112.42 4,258.75 (4,421.25) 4,421.25 6,002,434.07 1,923.28 50.94 38.29 (2.18)
7 5695 4,140.44 101.33 4,251.31 (1,443.69) 1,443.69 5,442,694.03 1,854.77 25.35 36.44 (3.04)
8 1953 4,138.26 90.98 4,241.78 2,288.78 2,288.78 5,417,168.90 1,909.02 117.19 46.53 (1.76)
9 4742 4,138.86 81.94 4,229.24 (512.76) 512.76 4,844,475.34 1,753.88 10.81 42.56 (2.21)
10 13673 4,148.39 74.70 4,220.80 (9,452.20) 9,452.20 13,294,432.14 2,523.71 69.13 45.22 (5.28)
11 6640 4,150.89 67.48 4,223.10 (2,416.90) 2,416.90 12,616,886.24 2,514.00 36.40 44.42 (6.26)
12 2737 4,149.47 60.59 4,218.37 1,481.37 1,481.37 11,748,349.52 2,427.95 54.12 45.23 (5.87)
13 3486 4,148.81 54.47 4,210.06 724.06 724.06 10,884,958.56 2,296.88 20.77 43.35 (5.89)
14 13186 4,157.85 49.92 4,203.27 (8,982.73) 8,982.73 15,870,987.82 2,774.44 68.12 45.12 (8.11)
15 5448 4,159.14 45.06 4,207.77 (1,240.23) 1,240.23 14,915,466.95 2,672.16 22.76 43.63 (8.89)
16 3485 4,158.46 40.49 4,204.20 719.20 719.20 14,015,577.87 2,550.10 20.64 42.19 (9.03)
17 7728 4,162.03 36.79 4,198.95 (3,529.05) 3,529.05 13,923,732.73 2,607.68 45.67 42.39 (10.19)
18 16591 4,174.46 34.36 4,198.83 (12,392.17) 12,392.17 21,681,635.82 3,151.27 74.69 44.19 (12.36)
19 8236 4,178.52 31.33 4,208.82 (4,027.18) 4,027.18 21,394,086.32 3,197.37 48.90 44.44 (13.44)
20 3316 4,177.66 28.11 4,209.85 893.85 893.85 20,364,330.38 3,082.19 26.96 43.56 (13.66)
 α β ϓ
0.001 0.100 0.200

Time Clear Seasonal Abs.

Level(L) Trend(T) Forecast Error MSE MAD % Error MAPE TS
Period Plastic Factor Errror
0 3,611.98 263.94
1 3200 3,876.25 263.97 0.76 2,951.64 (248.36) 248.36 61,681.69 248.36 7.76 7.76 (1.00)
2 7658 4,140.11 263.96 1.90 7,863.16 205.16 205.16 51,886.51 226.76 2.68 5.22 (0.19)
3 4420 4,404.33 263.99 0.95 4,175.25 (244.75) 244.75 54,558.76 232.76 5.54 5.33 (1.24)
4 2384 4,669.40 264.10 0.41 1,935.92 (448.08) 448.08 91,113.49 286.59 18.80 8.69 (2.57)
5 3654 4,933.28 264.07 0.77 3,820.18 166.18 166.18 78,413.78 262.51 4.55 7.86 (2.17)
6 8680 5,196.75 264.01 1.89 9,819.43 1,139.43 1,139.43 281,728.75 408.66 13.13 8.74 1.39
7 5695 5,461.24 264.06 0.96 5,237.67 (457.33) 457.33 271,360.46 415.61 8.03 8.64 0.27
8 1953 5,724.08 263.94 0.43 2,484.01 531.01 531.01 272,687.39 430.04 27.19 10.96 1.50
9 4742 5,988.21 263.96 0.77 4,596.43 (145.57) 145.57 244,743.23 398.43 3.07 10.08 1.25
10 13673 6,253.32 264.07 1.85 11,538.41 (2,134.59) 2,134.59 675,916.23 572.05 15.61 10.63 (2.86)
11 6640 6,517.69 264.10 0.98 6,360.18 (279.82) 279.82 621,587.38 545.48 4.21 10.05 (3.51)
12 2737 6,781.60 264.08 0.42 2,816.68 79.68 79.68 570,317.57 506.66 2.91 9.46 (3.63)
13 3486 7,043.15 263.83 0.77 5,442.52 1,956.52 1,956.52 820,905.53 618.19 56.13 13.05 0.19
14 13186 7,306.56 263.79 1.91 13,983.42 797.42 797.42 807,689.26 630.99 6.05 12.55 1.45
15 5448 7,568.31 263.58 0.98 7,452.67 2,004.67 2,004.67 1,021,756.39 722.57 36.80 14.16 4.04
16 3485 7,832.50 263.65 0.41 3,234.44 (250.56) 250.56 961,820.36 693.07 7.19 13.73 3.85
17 7728 8,098.83 263.91 0.72 5,804.61 (1,923.39) 1,923.39 1,122,856.35 765.44 24.89 14.38 0.98
18 16591 8,363.15 263.95 1.89 15,821.50 (769.50) 769.50 1,093,371.68 765.67 4.64 13.84 (0.03)
19 8236 8,627.32 263.98 0.93 8,036.43 (199.57) 199.57 1,037,921.94 735.87 2.42 13.24 (0.30)
20 3316 8,890.31 263.88 0.42 3,728.78 412.78 412.78 994,545.40 719.72 12.45 13.20 0.27
 Method MSE MAD MAPE TS Range

Min Max
Static Regression Method 346,929.90 446.14 9.73 (3.51) 4.52
Simple Exponential Smoothing 9,388,485.80 2,346.90 58.00 (0.08) 7.22
Trend Corrected Exponential Smoothing 17,757,754.39 2,935.25 45.13 (19.51) 2.00
Seanson and Trend Correct Exponential Smoothing 440,652.75 504.45 10.74 (3.67) 4.77

Summary of Errors(Clear Plastic)

Method MSE MAD MAPE TS Range

Min Max
Static Regression Method 792,726.56 656.35 12.13 (3.90) 3.50
Simple Exponential Smoothing 15,835,322.56 3,162.49 65.54 (1.00) 6.00
Trend Corrected Exponential Smoothing 20,364,330.38 3,082.19 43.56 (13.66) 1.00
Seanson and Trend Correct Exponential Smoothing 994,545.40 719.72 13.20 (3.63) 4.04
1. In both cases all errors (i.e. MSE, MAD and MAPE) are least for static
regression method. It is recommended that Julie William & team should
select static regression method to implement demand forecasting model.

2. For both black and clear plastic TS range in simple exponential smoothing
and trend corrected exponential smoothing methods is lower than -6 or
higher than 6 so these two methods can’t be selected.

3. For other two method TS are in range for both black and clear plastic.