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Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET


Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi

Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 4.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea

2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in


Safal Niveshak Stock Warning! Excel can be a wonder
a deadly weapon if you wish to
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0) careful of what you are getting
garbage out. And if you need the
a given stock, you mu
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters Details
Company FORCE MOTORS LTD
Current Stock Price (Rs) 1,780 Remember! Focus on decisions
Face Value (Rs) 10.0 evidence
No. of Shares (Crore) 1.3
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore) 2,347

Key Financials - Trend


Parameters Details
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR) 18.4% Please! It's your money. Please
cause you to lose it all! I've desi
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR) -6.6% but you alone are responsible f
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR) 1.9% ever after! I am not a sadist w
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x) 0.0 analyzing companies on your
instead of a map, for you can c
Average Return on Equity (5-Years) 5.9%
A
Average P/E (5-Years, x) 41.4
Latest P/E (x) 13.9
Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze the past. But it can be
y weapon if you wish to use it to predict the future! So be very
of what you are getting into. Here, garbage in will always equal
out. And if you need the excel to tell you what you must do with
a given stock, you must not use this tool anyways.

er! Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming


evidence. Calculate. Pray!

It's your money. Please don't blame me if results of this excel


u to lose it all! I've designed this excel to aid your own thinking,
alone are responsible for your actions. I want to live peacefully
fter! I am not a sadist who wants you to do the hard work by
ng companies on your own. But I'd rather give you a compass
of a map, for you can confuse map with territory and lose it all.
All the best!
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an


upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it


knows?

Has the company been buying back its


shares?

Have retained earnings been invested


well?

Is the company’s return on equity above


average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to


inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation

Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.


Balance Sheet
FORCE MOTORS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13
Reserves 214 270 321 1,130 1,140 1,213 1,304 1,474 1,652 1,786
Borrowings 161 148 247 60 42 53 21 14 200 0
Other Liabilities 385 379 484 478 531 527 668 814 855 881
Total 773 810 1,066 1,681 1,726 1,806 2,005 2,315 2,721 2,680

Net Block 289 284 393 451 622 643 638 786 911 948
Capital Work in Progress 20 12 14 93 189 206 240 205 220 369
Investments 57 57 57 1 1 1 1 15 10 11
Other Assets 407 457 602 1,136 914 955 1,127 1,310 1,579 1,352
Total 773 810 1,066 1,681 1,726 1,806 2,005 2,315 2,721 2,680

Working Capital 22 78 118 658 383 429 459 496 724 471
Debtors 123 150 161 156 109 135 109 150 115 242
Inventory 196 194 311 362 382 377 393 548 438 477
Cash & Bank** 4,735 3,367 3,190 3,393 2,605 3,546 4,739 5,829
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 60 57 38 27 20 24 17 18 14 26
Inventory Turnover 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 7
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.6 3.4 4.0 4.6 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.6
Debt/Equity 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
Return on Equity 52% 19% 11% 70% -2% 5% 6% 9% 6% 3%
Return on Capital Employed 56% 12% 14% 85% -1% 4% 8% 14% 9% 6%
Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
FORCE MOTORS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 751 956 1,565 2,085 1,973 2,022 2,364 3,025 3,069 3,430 3,641
% Growth YOY 27% 64% 33% -5% 2% 17% 28% 1% 12%
Expenses 857 958 1,441 1,992 1,953 1,941 2,236 2,792 2,874 3,257 3,317
Material Cost (% of Sales) 76% 70% 68% 72% 73% 70% 70% 74% 69% 76% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 16% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 10% 11% 11% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2%
Operating Profit -107 -1 124 93 20 80 128 232 195 174 324
Operating Profit Margin -14% 0% 8% 4% 1% 4% 5% 8% 6% 5% 9%
Other Income 367 96 6 985 44 60 66 71 86 61 60
Other Income as % of Sales 48.9% 10.1% 0.4% 47.3% 2.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 1.6%
Depreciation 42 42 45 60 70 85 81 92 113 129 143
Interest 35 17 23 35 8 9 7 5 6 7 9
Interest Coverage(Times) 6 3 4 29 -1 6 17 40 30 16 27
Profit before tax (PBT) 183 36 61 983 -15 46 106 207 162 99 232
% Growth YOY -80% 70% 1510% -102% -406% 129% 95% -22% -39%
PBT Margin 24% 4% 4% 47% -1% 2% 4% 7% 5% 3% 6%
Tax 66 -18 23 187 5 -15 24 70 55 53 64
Net profit 117 54 38 796 -20 61 82 137 107 46 169
% Growth YOY -54% -30% 2011% -103% -407% 34% 67% -22% -57%
Net Profit Margin 16% 6% 2% 38% -1% 3% 3% 5% 3% 1% 5%
EPS 88.8 40.6 28.5 602.6 -15.1 46.4 62.2 103.8 80.8 34.4 127.9
% Growth YOY -54% -30% 2011% -103% -407% 34% 67% -22% -57%
Price to earning 0.8 9.0 26.7 0.8 -24.1 8.1 25.5 30.9 57.0 85.7 13.9
Price 69 364 761 485 365 374 1,588 3,209 4,604 2,952 1,780
Dividend Payout 0.0% 6.5% 11.2% 1.6% 27.7% 5.1% 6.5% 7.4% 7.3% 9.0%
Market Cap 92 482 1,006 641 482 494 2,099 4,240 6,084 3,901
Retained Earnings 117 50 33 784 -14 58 77 127 99 41
Buffett's $1 Test 2.8

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS


Sales Growth 18.4% 11.9% 11.7% 13.2%
PBT Growth -6.6% 7.1% -245.5% -2.3%
PBT Margin 10.0% 9.7% 4.4% 5.0%
Price to Earning 22.0 26.3 41.4 57.9

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
Cash Flow Statement
FORCE MOTORS LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) -34 59 74 -139 83 116 226 256 471 256 1,367
% Growth YoY -271% 25% -289% -160% 39% 95% 13% 84% -46%
Cash from Investing Activity 277 -20 -158 815 -304 -100 -96 -210 -621 -81 -497
Cash from Financing Activity -243 -30 73 -228 -16 -30 -45 -37 180 -223 -598
Net Cash Flow -1 9 -11 447 -237 -14 85 9 30 -47 271
CFO/Sales -5% 6% 5% -7% 4% 6% 10% 8% 15% 7%
CFO/Net Profit -29% 109% 195% -17% -417% 189% 275% 186% 441% 564%
Capex** 315 212 364 565 607 937 1,156 1,638 1,238 824
FCF -349 -153 -291 -704 -524 -821 -930 -1,382 -767 -568 -6,489
Average FCF (3 Years) -906
FCF Growth YoY -56% 90% 142% -26% 57% 13% 49% -44% -26%
FCF/Sales -47% -16% -19% -34% -27% -41% -39% -46% -25% -17%
FCF/Net Profit -280% -253% -496% -85% -3668% -1057% -918% -773% -427% -386%

** Manually enter this number;


Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
Key Ratios
FORCE MOTORS LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 27.4% 63.7% 33.2% -5.4% 2.5% 16.9% 28.0% 1.5%
PBT Growth -80.3% 69.9% ### ### ### 128.9% 95.4% -21.7%
Net Profit Growth -54.3% -29.7% ### ### ### 34.1% 66.8% -22.1%
Dividend Growth #DIV/0! 66.8% 100.0% -70.0% 0.0% 66.8% 100.0% 0.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth -271.2% 25.4% ### ### 38.9% 95.4% 13.2% 84.0%
Free Cash Flow Growth -56.2% 90.0% 142.4% -25.6% 56.8% 13.2% 48.6% -44.5%

Operating Margin -14.2% -0.2% 7.9% 4.5% 1.0% 4.0% 5.4% 7.7% 6.3%
PBT Margin 24.4% 3.8% 3.9% 47.2% -0.8% 2.3% 4.5% 6.8% 5.3%
Net Margin 15.6% 5.6% 2.4% 38.2% -1.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.5% 3.5%

Debtor Days 59.8 57.4 37.6 27.4 20.1 24.4 16.8 18.1 13.7
Inventory Turnover 3.8 4.9 5.0 5.8 5.2 5.4 6.0 5.5 7.0
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.6 3.4 4.0 4.6 3.2 3.1 3.7 3.8 3.4
Debt/Equity 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
Debt/Assets 20.8% 18.2% 23.2% 3.6% 2.4% 2.9% 1.0% 0.6% 7.4%
Interest Coverage (Times) 6.2 3.1 3.6 29.0 -0.8 6.0 17.2 40.0 30.2
Return on Equity 51.6% 18.9% 11.3% 69.6% -1.7% 5.0% 6.2% 9.2% 6.4%
Return on Capital Employed 56.2% 12.3% 14.5% 84.7% -0.6% 4.3% 8.4% 14.1% 9.0%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) -349 -153 -291 -704 -524 -821 -930 -1,382 -767
Mar/18
11.8%
-39.0%
-57.4%
0.0%
-45.5%
-26.0%

5.1%
2.9%
1.3%

25.7
7.2
3.6
0.0
0.0%
15.8
2.5%
5.9%
-568
What to look for?
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher isn't always better, esp. when the company is generating high ROE, which means the management is allocating capital
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency

Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry
Higher is better, but also look for long term stability and consistency, plus the nature of the industry. Also compare with industry

Lower/reducing is better. Compare with industry peer(s)


Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Higher/rising is better. Compare with industry peer(s)
Nil / lower than 0.5 / reducing is better
Lower is better
Look for number > 5
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for number > 20%. Also check if the debt is low/nil. Compare with industry peer(s)
Look for positive and rising numbers. If the company consistently generates negative FCF over say 10 years, avoid it.
60% Profit Margin Capital Alloc
100%
Check for a rising trend and
50%
80% Numbers > 20% long term a
40% has zero/marginal debt. Com
30% 60%
20% 40%
10% 20%
0%
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency. 0%
-10%Jan/09
Compare withJan/11 Jan/13
a close competitor Jan/15 Jan/17
-20% -20%Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan

Operating Margin PBT Margin


Net Margin ROE

4,000
Revenue Revenue and Pro
2500%
Check for a rising trend. Check for a ris
3,500 2000% Compare grow
3,000
1500%
2,500
1000%
2,000
1,500 500%
1,000 0%
Jan/10 Jan/12
500 -500%
- -1000%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Revenue Growth
Net Profit Grow

1,200 Profit Over Time Operating and


1,000 Check
Check for a rising trend. for positive numbe
1,000 which are rising over tim
500
800
600 -
Jan/09 Jan/11 Ja
400 -500
200
-1,000
-
-200 Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 -1,500

PBT Net Profit Operating Cash Flo


Data for Charts (Please don't touch any number below)
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Margin -14% 0% 8% 4% 1% 4% 5% 8% 6%
PBT Margin 24% 4% 4% 47% -1% 2% 4% 7% 5%
Net Margin 16% 6% 2% 38% -1% 3% 3% 5% 3%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
ROE 52% 19% 11% 70% -2% 5% 6% 9% 6%
ROCE 56% 12% 14% 85% -1% 4% 8% 14% 9%

Revenue & Profit Growth


Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 27% 64% 33% -5% 2% 17% 28% 1% 12%
PBT Growth -80% 70% 1510% -102% -406% 129% 95% -22% -39%
Net Profit Growth -54% -30% 2011% -103% -407% 34% 67% -22% -57%

Revenue & Profit


Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Revenue 751 956 1,565 2,085 1,973 2,022 2,364 3,025 3,069
PBT 183 36 61 983 -15 46 106 207 162
Net Profit 117 54 38 796 -20 61 82 137 107

Cash Flows
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Operating Cash Flow -34 59 74 -139 83 116 226 256 471
Free Cash Flow -349 -153 -291 -704 -524 -821 -930 -1,382 -767
%
Capital Allocation Quality
Check for a rising trend and/or consistency.
% Numbers > 20% long term are good. Also check if the company
has zero/marginal debt. Compare with a close competitor Note: Please ignore the dates
% on the X-axis. The figures are
% for/as on the year ending date,
which for most Indian
% companies would be 31st
March of that year
%
%Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

% Revenue and Profit Growth (YoY)


Check for a rising trend and/or low volatility.
% Compare growth rates with a close competitor.

%
%
%
%
Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18
%
%
Revenue Growth PBT Growth
Net Profit Growth

Operating and Free Cash Flow


0 Check for positive numbers and
which are rising over time.
0
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
0
0
0

Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow


Mar/18
5%
3%
1%

Mar/18
3%
6%

Mar/18
3,430
99
46

Mar/18
256
-568
Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 76% 70% 68% 72% 73% 70% 70% 74% 69% 76%
Change in Inventory -4% -1% 2% 2% 2% 0% 0% 2% -2% 1%
Power and Fuel 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Employee Cost 16% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 10% 11% 11%
Selling and Admin Cost 5% 5% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2%
Other Expenses 4% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3%
Operating Profit -6% 1% 4% 1% -2% 4% 5% 3% 11% 2%
Other Income 49% 10% 0% 47% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2%
Depreciation 6% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4%
Interest 5% 2% 1% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 25% 4% 5% 49% 1% 3% 5% 8% 8% 6%
Tax 9% -2% 1% 9% 0% -1% 1% 2% 2% 2%
Net Profit 17% 6% 4% 40% 1% 4% 4% 6% 6% 4%
Dividend Amount 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Common Size Balance Sheet


Rs Cr Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17
Equity Share Capital 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0%
Reserves 28% 33% 30% 67% 66% 67% 65% 64% 61% 67%
Borrowings 21% 18% 23% 4% 2% 3% 1% 1% 7% 0%
Other Liabilities 50% 47% 45% 28% 31% 29% 33% 35% 31% 33%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 37% 35% 37% 27% 36% 36% 32% 34% 33% 35%
Capital Work in Progress 3% 2% 1% 6% 11% 11% 12% 9% 8% 14%
Investments 7% 7% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Other Assets 53% 56% 56% 68% 53% 53% 56% 57% 58% 50%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 16% 19% 15% 9% 6% 7% 5% 6% 4% 9%
Inventory 25% 24% 29% 22% 22% 21% 20% 24% 16% 18%
Cash & Bank 2% 3% 1% 27% 13% 12% 15% 14% 9% 2%
A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

FORCE MOTORS LTD FORCE MOTORS LTD


Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 (1,042) (930) Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 (1,198) (955) Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 (1,378) (981) Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 (1,515) (963) 4 FY21
5 FY22 (1,667) (946) Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 (1,834) (929) Sales 12% 6 FY23
7 FY24 (1,925) (871) PBT -246% 7 FY24
8 FY25 (2,021) (816) FCF 2% 8 FY25
9 FY26 (2,123) (765) 9 FY26
10 FY27 (2,229) (718) 10 FY27
10 -22,286 (7,176) 10
Intrinsic Value (10,220) Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,347 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV -123% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

FORCE MOTORS LTD


Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 5,829 Year 1-3 20%
(1,087) (970) Year 4-6 15%
(1,304) (1,040) Year 7-10 10%
(1,565) (1,114) Discount Rate 12%
(1,800) (1,144)
(2,070) (1,175)
(2,380) (1,206)
(2,618) (1,184)
(2,880) (1,163)
(3,168) (1,143)
(3,485) (1,122)
(52,277) (16,832)
Intrinsic Value (22,264)
Current Mkt. Cap. 2,347
Premium/(Discount) to IV -111%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the


al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name FORCE MOTORS LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 86.6 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate (108.9) Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) (18,137) Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 2,347 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y


Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations


m Formula (High Range)
FORCE MOTORS LTD
Mar/18

86.6
8.5
(217.9)

(37,010)
2,347

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
FORCE MOTORS LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) (906) ###


2,347
Years 1-5 6-10 -879%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) (5,829)

Year FCF Growth Present Value


1 (1,042) 15% (930)
2 (1,198) 15% (955)
3 (1,378) 15% (981)
4 (1,584) 15% (1,007)
5 (1,822) 15% (1,034)
6 (2,040) 12% (1,034)
7 (2,285) 12% (1,034)
8 (2,559) 12% (1,034)
9 (2,867) 12% (1,034)
10 (3,211) 12% (1,034)

Final Calculations
Terminal Year (3,275)
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows ###
Terminal Value ###
Total PV of Cash Flows ###
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,347

Note: See explanation of DCF here


Valuation
TD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)


Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
Expected Returns Model
FORCE MOTORS LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 125 60 59 824 14 78 101
Net Profit Margin 17% 6% 4% 40% 1% 4% 4%
Return on Equity 52% 19% 11% 70% -2% 5% 6%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)


Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 12%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 456
Current P/E (x) 16.0
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 9,128
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 2,939
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 2,347

Note: See explanation of this model here


el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
179 180 147 2% 59%
6% 6% 4%
9% 6% 3%
Intrinsic Value Range
FORCE MOTORS LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair v
Dhandho -10,220 ### only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two quest
Ben Graham -18,137 ### (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Ca
DCF -20,619 understand this business?
Expected Return 2,939
Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less
Current Market Cap. 2,347 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and usefu
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "b
of-the-envelope".
Explanation: Considering the above
range, we can say that Hero Moto's IV Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in
range is between Rs 55,000 crore to Rs future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
95,000 crore. It's a big range, but that's with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus o
fine (who is looking for precision?). Now, decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming eviden
if the current market cap is within this IV
range, it makes the stock
reasonably/attractively priced. If the
current market cap is higher then the
higher value of the range, it makes it
overpriced. But remember, these are just
numbers!
importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-


are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the


vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
FORCE MOTORS LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 849 629 838 744 893 750 1,043 890 881 826
% Growth YOY 5% 19% 25% 20% -1% 10%
Expenses 774 600 746 707 813 704 931 810 808 768
Operating Profit 75 29 92 37 80 45 113 80 74 58
Other Income 20 24 24 28 9 10 14 11 14 21
Depreciation 26 27 34 31 32 33 34 34 35 40
Interest 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 1 0 6
Profit before tax 68 25 79 31 56 22 91 56 52 32
PBT Margin 8% 4% 9% 4% 6% 3% 9% 6% 6% 4%
% Growth YOY -17% -11% 15% 81% -7% 48%
Tax 18 1 24 1 15 7 30 16 13 5
Net profit 50 23 55 30 42 15 61 41 40 27
% Growth YOY -17% -37% 10% 37% -5% 87%
OPM 9% 5% 11% 5% 9% 6% 11% 9% 8% 7%
COMPANY NAME FORCE MOTORS LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 1.32
Face Value 10
Current Price 1780.35
Market Capitalization 2346.5

PROFIT & LOSS


Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 750.5 956.03 1564.8 2085 1972.72 2021.63
Raw Material Cost 567.14 670.6 1060.1 1492.98 1439.2 1414.07
Change in Inventory -31.1 -7.02 28.38 36.93 30.44 -1.97
Power and Fuel 14.7 19.71 28.12 34.32 37.22 37.94
Other Mfr. Exp 54.96 62.9 88.48 114.64 100.43 94.33
Employee Cost 120.25 125.23 197.03 258.88 262.32 240.56
Selling and admin 40.03 51.16 44.58 70.97 78.71 71.56
Other Expenses 29.17 20.88 51.36 56.73 65.66 80.89
Other Income 366.94 96.31 5.5 985.31 43.65 59.94
Depreciation 41.83 42 44.82 60.36 70.16 84.84
Interest 35.37 16.89 23.12 35.15 8.24 9.18
Profit before tax 190.11 42.72 81.97 1011.3 19.13 62.63
Tax 65.55 -17.7 23.35 186.97 4.85 -15.07
Net profit 124.56 60.42 58.62 824.33 14.28 77.69
Dividend Amount 3.95 6.59 13.18 3.95 3.95

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 849.22 629.06 837.56 744.45 892.99 749.52
Expenses 774.18 600.18 745.62 707.16 813.22 704.05
Other Income 20.05 23.81 24.18 28.16 9.42 9.69
Depreciation 26.25 27.4 34.12 30.78 31.85 32.7
Interest 0.84 0.65 3.12 3.44 0.99 0.57
Profit before tax 68 24.64 78.88 31.23 56.35 21.89
Tax 17.72 1.39 23.97 1.27 14.61 7.24
Net profit 50.28 23.25 54.91 29.96 41.74 14.65
Operating Profit 75.04 28.88 91.94 37.29 79.77 45.47

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 13.18 13.18 13.18 13.18 13.18 13.18
Reserves 214.34 270.14 321.1 1130.12 1139.77 1212.84
Borrowings 160.92 147.83 246.92 59.69 41.99 52.89
Other Liabilities 384.71 379.22 484.37 478.3 531.22 526.61
Total 773.15 810.37 1065.57 1681.29 1726.16 1805.52
Net Block 289.25 284.31 392.53 450.72 621.59 643.29
Capital Work in Progress 20.15 12.23 14.31 93.37 188.99 205.77
Investments 57.16 56.74 56.74 0.95 1.18 1.23
Other Assets 406.59 457.09 601.99 1136.25 914.4 955.23
Total 773.15 810.37 1065.57 1681.29 1726.16 1805.52
Receivables 122.89 150.23 161.36 156.43 108.8 135.08
Inventory 196.03 193.73 311.31 362.4 381.63 377.25
Cash & Bank 16.63 25.71 14.76 462.09 225.15 216.09
No. of Equity Shares 13213802 13213802 13213802 13213802 13213802 13213802
New Bonus Shares
Face value 10 10 10 10 10 10

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity -34.26 58.67 73.57 -139.22 83.26 115.67
Cash from Investing Activity 276.59 -19.58 -157.7 814.52 -304.11 -99.57
Cash from Financing Activity -242.97 -29.97 73.43 -227.91 -16.1 -30.18
Net Cash Flow -0.64 9.12 -10.7 447.39 -236.95 -14.08

PRICE: 69.252778 364.45476 761.4079 485.155 365.025 373.73947

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


2363.72 3024.66 3068.99 3430.19
1647.16 2237.64 2130.56 2609.24
6.12 65.19 -71.79 51.32
38.98 45.71 44.55 48.23
102.39 106.6 107.15 114.45
277.73 304.31 350.08 386.55
97.33 81.18 79.27 61.47
78.39 81.95 90.95 87.98
65.78 71.44 85.89 61.13
81.28 91.89 113.08 129.26
6.55 5.3 5.54 6.67
124.95 248.25 235 200.23
23.58 69.51 55.08 53.28
101.36 178.74 179.92 146.95
6.59 13.18 13.18 13.18

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18


1043.23 890.48 881.41 826.05
930.73 810.08 807.54 768.35
13.86 11.49 13.95 20.64
33.93 34.46 35.15 39.75
1.67 0.95 0.19 6.1
90.76 56.48 52.48 32.49
30.16 15.55 12.79 5.15
60.6 40.93 39.69 27.34
112.5 80.4 73.87 57.7

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


13.18 13.18 13.18 13.18
1303.7 1474.46 1652.23 1785.61
20.79 13.6 200.26 0.13
667.65 813.88 855.08 880.83
2005.32 2315.12 2720.75 2679.75
637.55 785.87 911.42 948.46
239.76 204.6 220.26 369.17
1.23 14.95 9.67 10.6
1126.78 1309.7 1579.4 1351.52
2005.32 2315.12 2720.75 2679.75
108.68 150.4 115.1 241.91
392.55 547.51 437.67 477.1
303.03 317.64 234.22 40.93
13213802 13213802 13213802 13213802

10 10 10 10

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18


225.97 255.78 470.63 256.48
-96.23 -210.01 -620.78 -80.59
-44.56 -37.18 180.17 -222.88
85.18 8.59 30.02 -46.99

1588.1375 3209.13158 4604.44737 2952.18571

1.32 1.32 1.32 1.32


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