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The 2nd EAS Energy Efficiency Conference,

Phnom Penh, Cambodia


31st July-1 August 2012

Overview of the Lao Power


Development Program

Khamso Kouphokham
Deputy Director General
Department of Energy Policy and Planning
Ministry of Energy and Mines, Lao P.D.R
BACKGROUND OF LAO PDR
• Area of 236,800 sq km and Population of 6.2 million.
• GDP per Capita of USD 1,088 and has been growing at an
average rate of 8% per annum;
• Mountainous area with major tributaries of the Mekong River
covering 35% of total Mekong River basin.
• Relatively high annual rainfall.
• Hydropower potential: 23,000 MW and only around 11% has
been used.
• Per Capita Electricity Consumption of 430 KWh/a but has been
growing at an average rate of ~10% in the last 10 years.
• Installed Capacity was 200 MW in 1996, increased to 2,550 MW
in 2011 (all from hydro) and forecast to reach 12,500 MW in
2020.
• ~85% of electric power generation is exported; Power sector’s
contribution to GDP is projected to increase to ~16% in 2020.
Electrification
• Increase a household electrification ratio from 78%
in 2011 to 90% in 2020.

75% by grid 3% by off-grid


Lao P.D.R’s
commitments
to GMS

Lao P.D.R MW By year


Exports to:
Thailand 7,000 2020
Vietnam 5,000 2020
Cambodia
• Direct benefits for local population
– New roads built or upgraded
– Improvement of living conditions:
education, health care, electrification,
water supply, etc.
– Employment of local workers
– Development programs: irrigation,
environment protection, livelihood,
trade, etc.
• National benefits
– Royalties, Taxes and Dividends
– Reliable, Renewable and competitive sources
of electricity supply
– Revenues to be used for “poverty reduction
programs” such as rural electrification, etc.
– Projects transferred free of charge after
concession period
– Training for skilled labor, technicians,
engineers, etc.
– Raise credit worthy, cheaper project financing
– Opportunity to develop large hydro potential
• Regional benefits
– Contribution of Clean and Renewable energy to
GMS/ASEAN: 12,500 MW installed capacity or
60,000 GWh/y generation will replace 5 mil toe of
fossil fuels; At 4 cents/KWh, fuel cost saving is $2.4
bil/y or NPV of $240 bil c.f. higher hydropower
construction cost of $5 bil, using a 1% discount rate for
“natural capital” like “water”;
– Establishment of GMS/ASEAN grid to support the
optimum use of energy resources – Energy Efficiency?
– Better energy mix for GMS/ASEAN
– Promote sustainable long term trade amongst
GMS/ASEAN countries
– Cost of unserved energy ( CUE = GDP/Generation =
500-3,7000 US$/Mwh ) avoided
Existing Generation Facilities

Locations of Existing
Hydropower Plants

10
PDP 2010-2020
System in 2015 System in 2020

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Electricity Demand Forecasts
Whole Country
The average growth rate of energy demand
(including system losses) and Peak Load in period
3,500.0
2010-2020 are 21.1% and 17.9% per annum 2,713 2,730 2,810 2,800
2,841 2,905
3,000.0

respectively. 2,500.0

2,000.0 2,075 2,049 2,072 1,997 1,965

MW
1,600 1,946
1,500.0
Electricity demand forecast for residential sector is 765
939
1,000.0 559 644 1,000 959
478 803 876
639 681 739
600
normally increased while electricity demand for the 500.0 446 472 502 532
233
564
374
32 87 143
-
industrial sector is abnormally increased in horizon 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2015-2020 due to the demand for the projects during


Residential Industrial Total
construction period large industrial load of bauxite
and Aluminum mines. The annual average growth of
capacity is 235 MW
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Thank you for your kind
attention

For more information please contact me at


khamsokouphokham@yahoo.com