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1, JANUARY 2015 37
Abstract—In this study, a forecast system for tsunami early tsunami should be evaluated promptly so that a proper coun-
warning in Taiwan is constructed by integrating the source model termeasure can be employed and both casualties and property
that generates the initial tsunami elevation based on earthquake losses can be reduced.
fault parameters, the propagation model that calculates the
offshore sea surface quickly by precomputed reciprocal Green’s In Taiwan, there are a few tsunami events which have hap-
functions, and the nearshore module that interpolates the inun- pened in the past [1]. For the southwest coast of Taiwan, a
dated distance to the shoreline based on precomputed inundation tsunami was reported in 1781. Some detailed descriptions of
simulations. This system is integrated and executed by a Matlab this event suggest the event was hazardous. The record has it
graphic utility interface (GUI). In this interface system, the rup- that “after the water flowed back to the sea, people were stuck on
ture parameters such as epicenter location, focal depth, and fault
angles are used to compute the initial tsunami wave elevation. top of tall bamboo trying to find others to help them get down to
These rupture parameters can be retrieved from the website of the ground.” When the fishermen came back after fishing, “they
the U.S. Geological Survey or the F-net Broadband Seismograph found the houses were submerged and the fishing rafts could sail
Network of Japan for the most updated earthquake parameters. over bamboo.” These descriptions suggest that the water depth
For the highly nonlinear coastal inundation, a bell-shaped wave is was higher than 4 m. The fishing rafts went out to sea before
used to generate the inundation map, which is then transformed
into a Google Earth format and demonstrated via this geographic the tsunami came; therefore, it was a fair day, and, hence, this
information system. This system has been applied in both 2010 tsunami was not a disguised storm surge.
Chilean Tsunami and 2011 Great Eastern Japan Tsunami. In In [1], two more tsunamis were reported in the southwestern
both cases, the result has order-of-magnitude accuracy; thus, this and northern coasts of Taiwan: In January 1661, a large tsunami
system provides a quick first estimation for an early warning of a assailed the Tainan area and flooded lots of huts. In December
tsunami when a submarine earthquake occurs.
1867, hundreds of people drowned in Keelung when seawater
Index Terms—Geographic information system, inundation map, deluged the land. These historical events are important because
reciprocal Green’s function, tsunami early warning. if hazardous tsunami occurred in the past, they can also occur
in the future.
In a broader view than the tsunami events of far away or long
I. INTRODUCTION ago, large earthquakes frequently occur in the area surrounding
Taiwan. In the Chi-Chi earthquake of 1999 in the central area of
S UBSEQUENT to the Indian Ocean Tsunami of December Taiwan, the largest fault displacement on the ground reached 10
2004, there have been quite a few tsunami events around m. This scale of vertical bottom movement can generate giant
the world. More recently, the Samoan Tsunami in 2009, tsunami if it occurs in the sea. Tsunami events in the neigh-
Tsunami incidents in Chile and Indonesia in 2010, and the dev- boring countries such as Japan, the 1993 tsunami of Okushiri,
astating Great Eastern Japan (Tohoku) tsunami in March 2011 Hokkaido, and the Moro Gulf Tsunami, 1976, in the Philippines,
all highlight the risk of tsunami in coastal zones. To protect have claimed thousands of lives in the last century. Tsunami
coastal residents from a tsunami, the hazard of an upcoming generated in these countries may also affect the coast of Taiwan.
Thus, a tsunami warning system is necessary based on both the
historical events and the geological structure nearby.
Manuscript received September 16, 2012; revised June 10, 2013 and De-
cember 04, 2013; accepted December 12, 2013. Date of publication January Since most tsunamis are generated by submarine earthquakes,
30, 2014; date of current version January 09, 2015. usually a tsunami alarm is announced after an earthquake is
Associate Editor: N. R. Chapman.
detected and its magnitude is determined. Most big submarine
G.-Y. Chen and C.-C. Liu are with the Department of Oceanography, Na-
tional Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung 80424, Taiwan (e-mail:guanyu@fac- earthquakes do not generate large tsunami, and, hence, most of
ulty.nsysu.edu.tw; caite8001@hotmail.com). the tsunami warnings turn into false alarms.
C.-C. Yao is with the Department of Civil Engineering, Chienkuo Technology
To make a reliable alarm, a quicker and more convenient early
University, Changhua 500, Taiwan. (e-mail: molie@cc.ctu.edu.tw).
This paper includes the supplementary downloadable material available at warning system with more accurate numerical simulations is es-
http://ieeexplore.ieee.org, provided by the authors. The material presents a com- sential. However, even after collecting the required earthquake
plete video demonstration of the interface system explained in this paper. Con-
parameters, numerical tsunami simulations take hours before it
tact G.-Y. Chen at guanyu@faculty.nsysu.edu.tw for questions regarding the
multimedia material. is feasible to forecast a tsunami. If the simulation is to be exe-
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/JOE.2013.2295948 cuted beforehand, the number of combinations for all possible
0364-9059 © 2014 IEEE. Personal use is permitted, but republication/redistribution requires IEEE permission.
See http://www.ieee.org/publications_standards/publications/rights/index.html for more information.
38 IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL. 40, NO. 1, JANUARY 2015
earthquake magnitudes, hypocenter locations, and fault angles not generated because the tsunami height is too small to flood
is too large to be completely included. In practice, this approach the coast. Thus, this system provides a quick and effective first
needs lots of simulations over various seismic scenarios and estimation when a submarine earthquake occurs.
then interpolates between different orders of magnitude [2].
Another common approach utilizes the numerical Green’s II. FORECAST METHOD
function (GF), which is the response of unit elevation at any Tsunami simulation can be divided into three steps: the
point of interest based on linear equations for tsunami. Once the source, the propagation in the deep ocean, and the inundation
GF is computed for every point in the source zone, the response in the nearshore area. In this study, these three steps are carried
of any point in the computational domain can be obtained out separately by three modules that are integrated to forecast
simply by multiplication with the GF and the initial vertical both the offshore water surface elevation and the inundation
deformation, which is then superposed over the whole source map for a vulnerable city. The source model that generates the
zone [3]–[5]. Thus, with the aid of previously computed GFs, initial tsunami elevation based on earthquake fault parameters,
a tsunami warning can be issued quickly because no equation the propagation model that calculates the offshore sea surface
solving is involved. quickly by precomputed RGFs, and the nearshore module that
The GF approach is not perfect for the following three rea- interpolates the inundated distance to the shoreline based on
sons. First, the accuracy always depends on an accurate initial precomputed inundation simulations are integrated into a fore-
sea-bottom dislocation in the source zone, a common problem cast system for tsunami early warning. These three modules,
encountered in all tsunami simulations. In this study, the length with the integration under a graphic utility interface (GUI), are
and width of the fault plane are obtained from a widely discussed in detail in the following. It should be noted that the
used regression formula of Wells and Coppersmith [6], and a present system does not include in situ tsunami measurement
uniform dislocation is obtained based on the equivalence of the in its present form.
seismic moment and the mechanical work accomplished [7].
The sea-bottom elevation then is obtained by the elastic half- A. Tsunami Source Forecast
space dislocation model according to existing elasticity theo- For a thrust fault where the slip angle is between 45 and
ries of Mansinha and Smylie [8]. The details will be given in 135 , the most frequently used regression formulas of Wells and
Section II-A, and the results have at least order-of-magnitude Coppersmith [6], in terms of the moment scale magnitude of
accuracy. the earthquake , are employed. The surface rupture length
The second problem of the numerical GF approach is that (SRL) and rupture width (RW, both in kilometers) are used,
many computation cases, as many as the number of grid points respectively, to represent the length and width of the fault
in the computational domain, have to be executed to obtain all plane as
the required numerical GFs. Since the purpose of the GF ap-
proach is to forecast the tsunami wave height for a vulnerable SRL
coastal city, most of the computation and the requirements on RW (1)
computer memory are unnecessary. To save computation time
and reduce the memory requirement, reciprocal GF (RGF) [10] Similarly, for a normal fault where the slip angle is less than
is used. The tsunami forecast by RGF is as quick as the tradi- 45 or more than 135 , the regression formulas are
tional GF, but the computation is significantly reduced, as will SRL
be discussed in Section II-B.
The third problem of the GF approach is that a tsunami wave RW (2)
is highly nonlinear near shore; hence, the GF is not applicable For slip angle outside the above ranges, the fault is classified as
for the detailed fine-grid nearshore inundation simulation strike slip, and the regression formulas are
because of its nonlinear nature. Chen et al. [11] proposed
a methodology to quickly estimate the runup flow field and SRL
inundation distance from the shoreline based on the GF and RW (3)
an analytic solution of Carrier et al. [12]. However, although
the calculated runup height has reasonable agreement with the These three different fault types have different rupture mecha-
field survey, the inundation distance thus obtained varies sig- nism and stress distribution; hence, the corresponding regres-
nificantly, suggesting the dependency on the local topography, sion equations are different. By changing to the seismic
and, hence, a detailed inundation simulation is required. In moment via
this study, a bell-shaped wave is used to get detailed nearshore
inundation simulations for some specific wave heights and (4)
apply interpolation to obtain the inundation map for every
incident wave, as will be discussed in Section II-C. a uniform dislocation is obtained by equating the seismic
To verify the method, tsunami data in Taiwan obtained moment to the mechanical work released
during both 2010 Chilean tsunami and 2011 Great Eastern (5)
Japan Tsunami are used for validation in Section IV. The
forecast for the offshore tsunami elevation is shown to be where is the shear modulus of the crust and is usually assumed
accurate to the order of magnitude, while the inundation map is to be 3 10 N/km [7].
CHEN et al.: FORECAST SYSTEM FOR OFFSHORE WATER SURFACE ELEVATION WITH INUNDATION MAP INTEGRATED FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING 39
Fig. 2. Comparison of the RGF method (dashed line) and the direct COMCOT tsunami simulation for the time series of offshore wave profile in Indian Ocean
Tsunami.
fore the first tsunami wave arrives, the RGF is simply zero and symbols are the same as (6). The shear stress is calculated by
does not need to be recorded. On the other hand, because of the assuming Manning’s equals 0.02.
uncertainty in the determination of the tsunami source, only the The coast of Taiwan can be affected by tsunami waves gener-
first few hours of the forecast are enough to provide useful infor- ated at any point in the whole Pacific basin. The Pacific basin has
mation for tsunami hazard mitigation. Hence, it is not necessary many possible tsunami sources, including the famous “ring of
to keep the whole simulation results. Instead, only the first 5 h fire.” The combinations for all possible earthquake magnitudes,
after the arrival of the first tsunami wave are recorded as the hypocenter locations, and fault angles are too many to be com-
RGF and a single RGF needs approximately 28 GB to store. pletely included if the inundation simulation is to be executed
beforehand. To save computer time for the inundation simula-
C. Nearshore Tsunami Inundation Map tion which is very time consuming, the inundation is not based
A detailed nearshore simulation is very time consuming. Al- on the direct numerical simulation for all moments of magnitude
though Titov et al. [4] proposed that real-time inundation simu- with all the possible hypocenters. Instead, the inundation map is
lation can be achieved by parallel computation, it is not feasible obtained through a detailed nearshore simulation with an inci-
for most government agencies to maintain and operate such a dent wave of different wave heights. Since the incident tsunami
system continuously. Thus, precomputed inundation maps are waveform is not known, normal incidence of a bell-shaped wave
a common practice in tsunami hazard mitigation. Usually the is assumed and the inundation is precomputed. The time scale is
tsunami wave is simulated from the beginning of a tsunamigenic set to be 20 min to be close to that of a real tsunami. As will be
earthquake to the inundation in the vulnerable city. It should discussed in Section IV-C, a comparison between two inunda-
be noted that, for coastal waters, the linear equations (6) are tion simulations of an earthquake scenario and the bell-shaped
not applicable because of the high nonlinearity and the bottom wave case shows that a 20-min bell-shaped wave provides a rea-
friction in wave propagation. Hence, the following nonlinear sonable estimation of the inundation.
shallow-water equations are used: For an incident wave with offshore wave height in between
two simulated bell-shaped waves, the inundation map is ob-
tained by interpolating the distance to the shoreline. These inun-
dation maps are then transformed into Google Earth kmz format.
As shown in Fig. 3, hospitals, drug stores, schools, grocery
stores, gas stations, and restaurants are shown in the inundation
(9) map. Thus, useful resources and the location of vulnerable facil-
ities can be demonstrated together via this geographic informa-
where is the total water depth, and is the bottom tion system so that people in charge can easily make decisions
shear stress with subscript representing its direction. All other to mitigate the hazard.
CHEN et al.: FORECAST SYSTEM FOR OFFSHORE WATER SURFACE ELEVATION WITH INUNDATION MAP INTEGRATED FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING 41
Fig. 3. Inundation map in Google Earth format. The inundated region of red color has water depth higher than 3 m, while the yellow and blue regions represent
water depth higher than 2 and 1 m, respectively.
D. Forecast Procedures and GUI on the regression relation and the elastic half-space dislocation
model explained in Section II-A, the sea-bottom dislocation is
The three forecast modules discussed above are integrated by calculated and drawn, as shown in the upper middle of the inter-
a GUI of MATLAB so that their operation can be more conve- face in Fig. 4, which is also the initial sea-surface elevation
nient and user friendly. As shown in Fig. 4, the earthquake pa- of tsunami used in (7) and (8). Every vulnerable city has its pre-
rameters such as the moment magnitude, the longitude, latitude, computed RGF for every source point in the ocean. Multiplying
and depth of the hypocenter, as well as the three fault angles of the initial elevation with the RGF and summing together over
strike, dip, and slip obtained from the centroid moment tensor the whole source region, the offshore free-surface elevation for
(CMT) solution, are shown in the “fault parameter” zone in the the vulnerable city is promptly obtained in the upper right of
upper left of the interface. These parameters can be given manu- the interface. The choice of the vulnerable city is provided in
ally, or provided automatically through the Internet. Then, based the lower left of the interface in Fig. 4.
42 IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL. 40, NO. 1, JANUARY 2015
Fig. 6. (a) Location of the wave monitoring station. (b) Retrieved tsunami wave (red) and the tsunami forecast of the integrated system (blue) in Keelung
during the 2010 Chilean Tsunami.
a trans-basin tsunami in the Pacific Ocean, it takes 75 s for undation modeling. The former takes 4.5 h for 28 h of propaga-
a desktop PC of Microsoft Windows 7 operating system with tion simulation and the latter needs 12.5 h (simulating time) for
4-GB RAM and an Intel Core 2 Duo E8500 with two 3.16-GHz 40-min inundation simulation on an HP ProLiant ML350p Gen
CPU. 8 workstation of Linux operating system with 32-GB RAM and
On the other hand, using a direct simulation with the shallow- 2 Hexa-Core Intel Xeon 2.0-GHz CPUs.
water equations (6) and (9), the CPU time increases sharply The above comparison suggests that the present forecast
with the domain area. For the same trans-basin tsunami in the system can save much time for tsunami wave propagation over
Pacific Ocean, there are 20 million (3451 by 5761, 2-min res- a large domain and the much more time-consuming inundation
olution) coarse-grid points for propagation modeling and four simulation in the nearshore area. The application of the present
million (1911 by 2001, 5-m resolution) fine-grid points for in- system is proven to be quick and economical.
44 IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL. 40, NO. 1, JANUARY 2015
RA
Fig. 7. Observed tsunami wave (black curve) and the tsunami predicted by the six methods (represented by red, blue, green, yellow, magenta, and aqua curves)
in Table I in (a) Keelung, (b) Suao, and (c) Hualien during the 2011 Great Eastern Japan Tsunami.
C. Inundation Map by Bell-Shaped Wave the determination of the inundation map is not straightforward.
As there are countless possible waveforms, including the In the present stage, a hump of 20-min time scale is used as
combination of both the wave period and the wave amplitude, the incident tsunami waveform because the amount of water
46 IEEE JOURNAL OF OCEANIC ENGINEERING, VOL. 40, NO. 1, JANUARY 2015
Fig. 8. Area inundated in an earthquake scenario (blue) and the area inundated by a bell-shaped wave (red).
over the mean sea level is larger than most waveforms, and the D. Future Work
20-min period can represent most tsunami incidents. The present interface integrates three modules and is easy to
According to [23], the extreme runup height and other wave apply in a tsunami event. To make the best use of this interface,
characteristics on a beach are only weakly dependent on the more information can be integrated and the interface can serve
shape of incident waves; this implies that the effect of wave as a platform for tsunami hazard mitigation.
period is negligible if it is similar to that of a tsunami. This result For example, the measured tsunami can be used to improve
also justifies our approach in employing one specific waveform the forecast, such as the system described in [4]. Earthquake
to represent the incidence of various tsunami waveforms. information can also be added separately besides the CMT so-
Since the incident tsunami waveform is not known before- lution provided by the U.S. Geological Survey and the F-net
hand and the inundation simulation is very time consuming, it Broadband Seismograph Network, so that there will be at least
would be better to choose a waveform that induces the worst some useful data before the CMT solution is available. Another
condition. To show that bell-shaped waves can generate a hazard example could be a comprehensive information system that aids
map of the worst condition, an inundation simulation based on the people in charge of hazard mitigation, rescue, and recovery
tsunamis generated by a scenario of a magnitude 8.3 subma- to make better decisions.
rine earthquake off the coast of Keelung in northern Taiwan is
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