TAREA 1 - INTRODUCCÓN A LOS MODELOS

PROBABILÍSTICOS DE DECISIÓN Y OPTIMIZACIÓN

DANIELA BUSTAMANTE GAVIRIA

GRUPO
104561_61

PRESENTADO A:
SANDRA MILENA BONILLA

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA

INGENIERÍA INDUSTRIAL
MÉTODOS PROBABILÍSTIOS
CEAD EJE CAFETERO
2019
 Introduccion

Los métodos probabilísticos consisten en herramientas numéricas y

graficas, que tienen base en la estadística, son de gran ayuda para la
toma de decisiones en cualquier proyecto que estemos abordando,
puesto que analiza información; por ejemplo datos históricos, o
tiempos de tareas; para pronosticar futuros comportamientos o bien
la duración de un proyecto, entre otras cosas. Este es un informe
sobre el desarrollo a ejercicios propuestos en la guía paso 2 del
curso métodos probabilísticos, esta dividido en dos partes:

La parte primera consiste en analizar el tiempo entre llegadas de una

línea de ensamblaje de una compañía productora de dispositivos
electrónicos. La segunda sobre programación de proyectos en
cuanto al tiempo de servicio de la misma línea de ensamblaje,
mediante uso de tiempos estimados.
 Objetivos

Objetivo general

Desarrollar competencias de análisis para la toma de decisiones y

dominio del tema para dar conclusiones objetivas.

Objetivos específicos

Diseñar pronósticos para obtener posibles resultados futuros

Analizar información estadísticamente
Comprender la distribución con comportamiento de los datos
Generar conclusiones objetivas para tomar decisiones
RELACIÓN DE TIEMPOS

TIEMPO ENTRE Marca

N° clase LI LS de
LLEGADAS (Minutos) clase
No.
1 12.9969145786 # de datos 60 1 2 3 2.5
2 11.3258795146 Min 2.15 2 3 4 3.5
3 7.8924789652 Max 13.90 3 4 5 4.5
4 6.5654155445 Rango 11.74 4 5 6 5.5
5 3.8597852146 #intervalos 10 5 6 7 6.5
6 3.5896487525 Amplitud 1.17 1 6 7 8 7.5
7 9.7895263445 Media empirica 7.10 7 8 9 8.5
8 5.5894785327 Varianza dist empirica 7.97 8 9 10 9.5
9 12.9852365749 GL 4% 9 10 11 10.5
10 5.9658971237 ALPHA 59 10 11 12 11.5
11 13.8955958742 CHI-CUADRADO Err:502 Total
12 6.125874659
13 9.875965237
14 12.9856985432
15 11.3689754411
16 5.9586971237
17 3.2256987746
18 10.375479487
19 3.8889652578
20 6.5559632579
21 10.6523777854
22 6.1256589659
23 7.3487765558
24 12.8885236987
25 8.9658742111
26 11.8555478965
27 2.4957244983
28 11.2182836205
29 5.8985444599
30 12.9856977124
31 12.9856484124
32 2.2359874459
33 13.8956987422
34 9.8965897459
35 10.8952364786
36 8.5898745326
37 10.9875362599
38 4.985687459
39 6.8759587412
40 9.2158759633
41 5.2158744966
42 9.2159873699
43 7.8548852146
44 3.9653214588
45 12.5559856987
46 3.8566233359
47 4.896587459
48 12.8563214786
49 12.9995698541
50 3.000258746
51 9.5896969325
52 12.8579589854
53 12.5874445212
54 8.5556329875
55 6.7778963216
56 13.2357897134
57 9.8569214578
58 12.8032374357
59 2.1522054951
60 9.1630048343
Frecuencia Frecuencia Frecuencia Media Varianza distribución
observada relativa acumulada empririca empirica
empirica Oi empirica fi empirica Fi t= fi*IT S2 =fi*(IT-t)2

3 6.7% 6.7% 0.17 1.41

7 15.6% 22.2% 0.54 2.02
2 4.4% 26.7% 0.20 0.30
5 11.1% 37.8% 0.61 0.28
6 13.3% 51.1% 0.87 0.05
3 6.7% 57.8% 0.50 0.01
3 6.7% 64.4% 0.57 0.13
8 17.8% 82.2% 1.69 1.02
4 8.9% 91.1% 0.93 1.03
4 8.9% 100.0% 1.02 1.72
45 100% 7.10 7.97
 TIEMPO FUNCIÓN DE
ENTRE DENSIDAD
LLEGADAS VALORES FRECUENCIA FRECUENCIA EXPONENCIA
No. (Minutos) ORDENADOS RELATIVA ACUMULADA L
1 3.03192249 2.1459511888 0.017 0.017 0.10458741
2 8.91437476 2.153525227 0.017 0.033 0.1044751594

3 11.4967144 2.1547972475 0.017 0.050 0.1044563193

4 9.56655063 2.1604344336 0.017 0.067 0.1043728671
5 2.15479725 2.4154765492 0.017 0.083 0.1006661804
6 6.94153573 3.0319224867 0.017 0.100 0.09224151
7 7.21871947 3.3341436745 0.017 0.117 0.0883725457
8 9.36139228 3.4109689074 0.017 0.133 0.0874151909
9 10.8585169 3.5523503072 0.017 0.150 0.0856803948
10 3.33414367 3.7144599464 0.017 0.167 0.0837335843
11 3.76271484 3.7319684107 0.017 0.183 0.0835259862
12 4.26302741 3.7424147121 0.017 0.200 0.0834023694
13 5.77301759 3.7627148433 0.017 0.217 0.0831626699
14 6.74342791 3.9105314896 0.017 0.233 0.0814379301
15 11.5396219 3.911191548 0.017 0.250 0.0814303093
16 6.43971718 4.0661717825 0.017 0.267 0.079660549
17 8.74491573 4.2630274059 0.017 0.283 0.0774679495
18 6.66994399 4.325118556 0.017 0.300 0.0767889706
19 11.9183689 4.387825903 0.017 0.317 0.0761092932
20 9.67178058 5.0359783953 0.017 0.333 0.0694269674
21 2.14595119 5.1241457329 0.017 0.350 0.0685645072
22 2.15352523 5.5386650773 0.017 0.367 0.0646510597
23 5.53866508 5.7730175924 0.017 0.383 0.0625382279
24 4.06617178 6.2049836297 0.017 0.400 0.0588230573
25 9.81167748 6.4397171751 0.017 0.417 0.056897614
26 5.12414573 6.6699439863 0.017 0.433 0.0550703726
27 7.2660492 6.6998145354 0.017 0.450 0.0548376403
28 3.41096891 6.7434279111 0.017 0.467 0.054499598
29 8.19330029 6.9415357305 0.017 0.483 0.0529901271
30 9.03497458 7.0284689235 0.017 0.500 0.0523410121
31 11.9216439 7.2187194685 0.017 0.517 0.0509480522
32 11.8976001 7.2290877819 0.017 0.533 0.0508732126
33 8.74868381 7.2660492002 0.017 0.550 0.0506073146
34 2.41547655 8.1862011421 0.017 0.567 0.0444176565
35 11.9514059 8.1933002926 0.017 0.583 0.0443729719
36 6.20498363 8.5476103962 0.017 0.600 0.0421989984
 37 9.52800395 8.5901346808 0.017 0.617 0.0419453423
38 4.32511856 8.7449157345 0.017 0.633 0.0410348847
39 10.4849385 8.748683814 0.017 0.650 0.0410129682
40 9.72470693 8.9143747642 0.017 0.667 0.0400607345
41 8.5476104 8.9207592755 0.017 0.683 0.0400244881
42 8.92075928 9.034974578 0.017 0.700 0.0393815737
43 10.8936549 9.0846373451 0.017 0.717 0.0391052548
44 3.55235031 9.361392281 0.017 0.733 0.0376005456
45 9.53642077 9.5280039513 0.017 0.750 0.036722747
46 6.69981454 9.5364207669 0.017 0.767 0.0366789506
47 3.71445995 9.5665506283 0.017 0.783 0.0365225993
48 3.73196841 9.6717805783 0.017 0.800 0.0359817453
49 5.0359784 9.7247069278 0.017 0.817 0.0357127526
50 11.9739749 9.8116774816 0.017 0.833 0.035275094
51 8.18620114 10.484938467 0.017 0.850 0.0320636272
52 7.22908778 10.858516869 0.017 0.867 0.0304095397
53 9.08463735 10.893654912 0.017 0.883 0.0302584201
54 3.91053149 11.496714421 0.017 0.900 0.0277787897
55 4.3878259 11.539621891 0.017 0.917 0.0276103127
56 8.59013468 11.897600083 0.017 0.933 0.0262439434
57 3.74241471 11.918368897 0.017 0.950 0.0261667791
58 2.16043443 11.92164386 0.017 0.967 0.0261546321
59 3.91119155 11.951405908 0.017 0.983 0.026044501
60 7.02846892 11.973974887 0.017 1.000 0.0259612962

MEDIA 7.053185243 1/lambda 7.0531852432 LAMBDA

DATOS PARAMETRO
EXPONENCI
VARIANZA 9.401895236 AL 1/lambda^2 9.4018952355
FUNCIÓN DE
DISTRIBUCIÓ
N
EXPONENCIA
L
0.2623256234 F Relativa
0.2631173472
0.018
0.016
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.017
0.2632502298 0.014
0.2638388343 0.012
0.2899827819 0.010
0.3494035429 0.008
0.3766920651 0.006
0.3834444652 0.004
0.3956803036 0.002
0.4094115187
0.000
0.410875747 88 36 45 64 33 25 03 73 51 11 85 21 08 42 51 69 78 87 14 05
118 443 367 994 484 178 259 507 717 791 946 114 468 476 734 076 692 686 189 386
0.4117476388 95 43 14 45 71 17 78 66 71 42 71 20 13 37 63 42 70 51 62 64
145 160 334 714 762 066 .38 538 439 743 218 186 590 914 084 536 724 858 539 921
0.4134382837 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11.
0.4256031928
0.4256569441
0.4381393914
0.4536042018
F.Relativa
0.4583931656
0.4631870563 Col umn G Col umn F
0.5103187383 1.200

0.5164018295 1.000
0.5440040999 0.800
0.5589062936 0.600
0.5851100804 0.400
0.5986905886
0.200
0.6115784606
0.000
0.6132199645
88 36 45 64 33 25 03 73 51 11 85 21 08 42 51 69 78 87 14 05
0.6156042399 118 443 367 994 484 178 259 507 717 791 946 114 468 476 734 076 692 686 189 386
95 43 14 45 71 17 78 66 71 42 71 20 13 37 63 42 70 51 62 64
0.6262508175 145 160 334 714 762 066 .38 538 439 743 218 186 590 914 084 536 724 858 539 921
2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11.
0.6308291457
0.6406539504
0.6411818077
0.6430572355
0.6867140406
Expotencial
0.6870292096
0.7023626471
56
51
46
41
36
 Expotencial

56
0.7041517307
51
0.7105733565
46
0.7107279379 41
0.7174442184 36
0.7176998709 31
0.7222344655 26
0.724183394 21
0.7347963868 16
0.7409876628 11
6
0.7412965671 1
0.7423993417 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

0.7462140852
0.7481113403
0.7511982274
0.7738492979
0.7855158835
0.786581758
0.8040710502
0.8052593497
0.8148966056
0.8154408595
0.8155265348
0.8163033102
0.8168901686

0.141779914
DATOS 60
COLUMNAS 2 CHI - CUADRADO

VALORES VALORES CHI-

G.L. 59 OBTENIDOS ESPERADOS (o-e)^2/e CUADRADO
0.017 0.2623256234 0.2300511945 3.3255472576
0.033 0.2631173472 0.2006735535
0.050 0.2632502298 0.1727468977
0.067 0.2638388343 0.1473508014
0.083 0.2899827819 0.1472638972
0.100 0.3494035429 0.178023745
0.117 0.3766920651 0.1794919885
0.133 0.3834444652 0.163141169
0.150 0.3956803036 0.1525443926
0.167 0.4094115187 0.1439262466
0.183 0.410875747 0.1260126703
0.200 0.4117476388 0.1088945226
0.217 0.4134382837 0.0936513884
0.233 0.4256031928 0.0868595431
0.250 0.4256569441 0.0724888022
0.267 0.4381393914 0.067108541
0.283 0.4536042018 0.0639151236
0.300 0.4583931656 0.0547311714
0.317 0.4631870563 0.0463489303
0.333 0.5103187383 0.0613809198
0.350 0.5164018295 0.053620199
0.367 0.5440040999 0.0578094269
0.383 0.5589062936 0.0551539046
0.400 0.5851100804 0.0585628978
0.417 0.5986905886 0.0553419559
0.433 0.6115784606 0.0519497128
0.450 0.6132199645 0.0434440468
0.467 0.6156042399 0.0360335412
0.483 0.6262508175 0.0326153782
0.500 0.6308291457 0.0271329654
0.517 0.6406539504 0.0239955541
0.533 0.6411818077 0.0181403984
0.550 0.6430572355 0.0134663738
0.567 0.6867140406 0.0209859871
0.583 0.6870292096 0.0156512046
0.600 0.7023626471 0.0149183781
0.617 0.7041517307 0.0108693
0.633 0.7105733565 0.0083960665
0.650 0.7107279379 0.0051888806
0.667 0.7174442184 0.0035938122
0.683 0.7176998709 0.0016456167
0.700 0.7222344655 0.0006845027
0.717 0.724183394 7.8020554E-05
0.733 0.7347963868 2.9130864E-06
0.750 0.7409876628 0.0001096135
0.767 0.7412965671 0.0008682651
0.783 0.7423993417 0.0022569951
0.800 0.7462140852 0.0038768025
0.817 0.7481113403 0.0062822638
0.833 0.7511982274 0.0089805532
0.850 0.7738492979 0.0074936159
0.867 0.7855158835 0.0083835983
0.883 0.786581758 0.0119006921
0.900 0.8040710502 0.0114447143
0.917 0.8052593497 0.0154131589
0.933 0.8148966056 0.0172135439
0.950 0.8154408595 0.0222041391
0.967 0.8155265348 0.028010541
0.983 0.8163033102 0.0341772822
1.000 0.8168901686 0.041044943
CHI-
CUADRADO
0.5%
CONFIANZA 96%
ALPHA 4%
CHI-CUADRADO 79.3208512
 fi vs Fi
100.0% 100.0%

90.0% 91.1%

82.2%
80.0%

70.0%
64.4%
60.0%
57.8%

50.0% 51.1%

40.0%
37.8%

30.0%
26.7%
22.2%
20.0% 17.8%
15.6%
13.3%
11.1%
10.0% 8.9% 8.9%
6.7% 6.7% 6.7%
6.7% 4.4%

0.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Intervalos

Frecuencia relativa empirica f Frecuencia acumulada empirica Fi

 Frecuencia
N° LI LS Marca de Frecuencia
clase T= exponencial Relativa Frec r
clase exponencial
Ii teorica f(t) teorica F(T) 120.0%
# de datos 60 1 2 3 2.5 12.2% 29.7%
Min 2.15 2 3 4 3.5 10.6% 38.9%
100.0%
Max 13.90 3 4 5 4.5 9.2% 46.9%
Rango 11.74 4 5 6 5.5 8.0% 53.9%
intervalos 10 5 6 7 6.5 7.0% 60.0% 80.0%
Amplitud 1.17 1 6 7 8 7.5 6.0% 65.2%
Media empirica 7.10 7 8 9 8.5 5.3% 69.8%
Varianza dist empirica 7.97333 8 9 10 9.5 4.6% 73.8% 60.0%
Euler e 2.71828 9 10 11 10.5 4.0% 77.2%
10 11 12 11.5 3.4% 80.2%
40.0% 38.9%

29.7%
22.2%
20.0%
Media distribución 0.14
exponencial λ=1/t
6.7%
0.0%
1 2

Frecuen
 Frec rel acum empirica fi vs frec rel exponencial f(T)
120.0%

100.0% 100.0%
91.1%
82.2% 80.2%
80.0%
77.2%
73.8%
69.8%
65.2% 64.4%
60.0% 60.0% 57.8%
53.9%
51.1%
46.9%
40.0% 38.9% 37.8%
29.7%
26.7%
22.2%
20.0%

6.7%
0.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Frecuenci a Rel ativa exponenci a l teori ca F(T) Frecuencia acumul a da empi ri ca Fi

RELACIÓN DE TIEMPOS

No. TIEMPO DE SERVICIO Marca de

N° clase LI LS
(Minutos) clase IT

1 9.589631479 # de datos 60 1 0 1 0.5

2 2.9658742137 Min 0.31 2 1 2 1.5
3 7.8885231459 Max 10.59 3 2 3 2.5
4 1.5896412366 Rango 10.28 4 3 4 3.5
5 2.8569874589 #intervalos 10 5 4 5 4.5
6 7.8569854124 Amplitud 1.03 1 6 5 6 5.5
7 9.7458965237 Media empirica 6.43 7 6 7 6.5
8 6.8569854124 Varianza dist empirica 8.03 8 7 8 7.5
9 9.3698561146 9 8 9 8.5
10 9.8888569741 10 9 10 9.5
11 7.8569874124 Total
12 3.5523698749
13 7.5896231459
14 7.5558974569
15 9.5236987459
16 8.6632974126
17 7.5552369875
18 6.7458931226
19 8.5558965479
20 9.5552369874
21 8.2223697413
22 5.5552365479
23 9.8896321479
24 8.559777412
25 9.3336987451
26 6.1112578965
27 5.8885964124
28 0.4587459623
29 3.5874596479
30 9.4587452137
31 8.5236987458
32 2.5899965237
33 9.2578932146
34 10.589641237
35 1.5236987459
36 3.5236987452
37 6.5236987452
38 6.1114789632
39 9.5552311115
40 3.8856971255
41 3.4447856974
42 9.4178996524
43 9.4589632148
44 9.5236974513
45 7.412597459
46 3.2155890762
47 5.1039774033
48 6.1336931004
49 9.3365897451
50 8.2459632587
51 6.6946161594
52 3.8623108626
53 8.3108626074
54 6.2315589076
55 3.103849135
56 1.3608903442
57 0.313039774
58 2.2645683267
59 9.5236985479
60 3.5285749636
 Varianza
Frecuencia Frecuencia Frecuencia Media distribución
observada relativa acumulada empririca t= empirica
empirica Oi empirica fi empirica Fi fi*IT S2 =f *(IT-t)2
i

2 3% 3% 0.02 1.19
3 5% 8% 0.08 1.24
4 7% 15% 0.17 1.05
9 15% 31% 0.53 1.31
0 0% 31% 0.00 0.00
3 5% 36% 0.28 0.04
8 14% 49% 0.88 0.00
7 12% 61% 0.89 0.14
7 12% 73% 1.01 0.51
16 27% 100% 2.58 2.55
59 1 6.43 8.03
 fi vs Fi
100% 100%

90%

80%

73%
70%

60% 61%

50% 49%

40%
36%
30% 31% 31% 27%

20%
15% 14%
15% 12% 12%
10% 7%
5%8% 5%
3%
3%
0%
1 2 3 4 0%
5 6 7 8 9 10

Intervalos

Frecuencia relativa empirica f Frecuencia acumulada empirica Fi

 Frecuencia
N° LI LS Marca de Frecuencia
clase clase T= exponencial Relativa
exponencial Frec
Ii teorica f(t) teorica F(T)
120.0%
# de datos 60 1 0 1 2.5 0.1331 32.2%
Min 0.31 2 1 2 3.5 0.1139 42.0%
Max 10.59 3 2 3 4.5 0.0975 50.3% 100.0%

Rango 10.28 4 3 4 5.5 0.0835 57.5%

#intervalos 10 5 4 5 6.5 0.0715 63.6%
80.0%
Amplitud 1.03 1 6 5 6 7.5 0.0612 68.8%
Media empirica 6.43 7 6 7 8.5 0.0524 73.3%
Varianza dist empirica 8.03 8 7 8 9.5 0.0448 77.2% 60.0%
Euler e 2.72 9 8 9 10.5 0.0384 80.5%
10 9 10 11.5 0.0328 83.3%
40.0% 42.0%

32.2%

Media distribución 20.0%

0.1555
exponencial λ=1/t
8%
3%
0.0%
1 2

Fre
 Frec rel acum empirica fi vs frec rel exponencial f(T)
120.0%

100.0% 100%

83.3%
80.0% 80.5%
77.2%
73.3% 73%
68.8%
63.6%
60.0% 61%
57.5%
50.3% 49%

40.0% 42.0%
36%
32.2% 31% 31%

20.0%
15%
8%
3%
0.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Frecuenci a Rel ativa exponencia l teori ca F(T) Frecuenci a a cumul ada empi ri ca Fi
f(T)

100%

83.3%

10