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FED SURVEY

April 30, 2019

These survey results represent the opinions of 45 of the nation’s top money
managers, investment strategists, and professional economists.

They responded to CNBC’s invitation to participate in our online survey. Their


responses were collected on April 25-27, 2019. Participants were not required to
answer every question.

Results are also shown for identical questions in earlier surveys.

This is not intended to be a scientific poll and its results should not be
extrapolated beyond those who did accept our invitation.

Contents (Click on a question to go directly to the results)


1. At its April meeting, the Federal Reserve 7. Do you generally approve or disapprove
will: of the job President Trump is doing handling

2. How many times in total will the Federal the economy?

Reserve hike or cut rates (assuming 25- 8. President Trump's corporate tax cuts:
basis point moves) in …? 9. How have the Trump administration's
3. Currently, the Fed's balance sheet is deregulation efforts affected economic
around $4 trillion. At what level do you growth?
expect the Fed to stop reducing its balance 10. When comparing the potential benefits
sheet and when do you expect the Fed to of deregulation, such as economic growth, to
reach this level? the potential costs, such as environmental
4. The Fed has indicated that it will stop its damage or reduced safety for consumers
balance sheet reduction later this year. I ... and banks, the ...?

5. Has the Federal Reserve sufficiently 11. If President Trump nominates STEPHEN
explained its monetary policy and the MOORE to the Federal Reserve, WILL he be
economic reasons for its balance sheet confirmed by the Senate?
decisions?
For those answering “no”: Why not?
6. What is the probability the Federal
12. If President Trump nominates STEPHEN
Reserve embarks on additional quantitative
MOORE to the Federal Reserve, SHOULD he
easing in the ....
be confirmed by the Senate?

For those answering “no”: Why not?

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

13. Regarding trade negotiations between 23. Where do you expect the fed funds
China and the U.S., which of the following is target rate will be on … ?
most likely this year? 24. At what fed funds level will the Federal
14. How have your 2019 and 2020 forecasts Reserve stop hiking rates in the current
for GDP and inflation been affected by cycle? That is, what will be the terminal
recently enacted U.S. tariffs and retaliatory rate?
tariffs by other nations? (Expressed as 25. When do you believe fed funds will
incremental change of forecast in
reach its terminal rate?
percentage points)
26. What is your forecast for the Q4/Q4
15. What is your estimate of the long-run
percentage change in real U.S. GDP for … ?
potential growth rate of the U.S. economy?
27. What is your forecast for the year-over-
16. Has your estimate of potential growth year percentage change in the headline U.S.
changed as a result of the late 2017-tax cut?
CPI for …?
17. (For those answering yes to previous
28. What do you expect the U.S.
question) By how much?
unemployment rate will be for:
18. By how much will the current global 29. What is the single biggest threat facing
slowdown increase or decrease U.S. GDP
the U.S. economic recovery? (Percentage
growth this year?
points)
19. What role are trade tensions and tariffs
30. In the next 12 months, what percent
playing in the global economic slowdown? probability do you place on the U.S. entering
20. Another government shutdown this year recession? (0=No chance of recession,
is: 100=Certainty of recession)

21. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock 31. What is your primary area of interest?
index will be on … ?
Comments:
22. What do you expect the yield on the 10-
year Treasury note will be on … ?

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April 30, 2019

1. At its April/May meeting, the Federal Reserve will:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Raise interest
rates 0%

Lower interest
rates 0%

Keep rates
100%
unchanged

Don't know/
unsure 0%

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April 30, 2019

2. How many times in total will the Federal Reserve hike or


cut rates (assuming 25-basis point moves) in …?
2019 hikes 2020 hikes 2019 cuts 2020 cuts
3.00

2.50 2.63
2.52 2.52 2.45
2.48 2.49
2.39

2.26

2.00

1.81
Average

1.50

2019 Hikes
1.20

1.00 0.87
0.74
0.76
2020 Hikes 0.69
0.60
0.71
0.50 2020 Cuts 0.66
0.63

2019 Cuts 0.38


0.24
0.14 0.13
0.00
Dec Jan Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
12 30 '19 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
Survey Dates

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3. Currently, the Fed's balance sheet is around $4 trillion.


At what level do you expect the Fed to stop reducing its
balance sheet and when do you expect the Fed to reach
this level?
Jan 29 Mar 20 Apr 30
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Less than $850B


Averages
$850B Jan 29:
$875B $2.85
$900B trillion
$925B
Mar 20:
$950B $3.44
$975B trillion
$1.00T
Apr 30:
$1.25T
$3.49
$1.50T trillion
$1.75T
$2.00T Averages
$2.25T for when
the Fed will
$2.50T
stop
$2.75T Jan 29:
$3.00T 2021 Q1
$3.25T
Mar 20:
$3.50T
2020 Q1
$3.75T
$4.00T Apr 30:
Don't know/unsure 2019 Q4

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4. The Fed has indicated that it will stop its balance sheet
reduction later this year. Do you agree or disagree with
the decision?
Mar 20 Apr 30

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

55%
Agree
58%

Disagree:
Reductions 41%
should
continue 35%
beyond…

Disagree:
Reductions 0%
should
end 2%
earlier

Disagree:
For some 2%
other 2%
reason

Don't 2%
know/
unsure 2%

Other reason for disagreement: They should stop reductions now

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5. Has the Federal Reserve sufficiently explained its


monetary policy and the economic reasons for its balance
sheet decisions?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes 53%

No 44%

Don't
know/ 2%
unsure

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6. What is the probability the Federal Reserve embarks on


additional quantitative easing in the ....
Next year Next 3 years

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0%
(No chance)

10%

20%
Averages
30%
Next year:
40%
11.0%

Next three years:


50%
36.7%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%
(Certainty)

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7. Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job


President Trump is doing handling the economy?
Approve Disapprove

100%

90%

80%

70%
66%
63% 61% Approve
58% 59%
60% 57%
53%
52% 51%
50%
50% 54%

43%
40% 36% 43%
31% 32% 32%
29% 30%
30%
24% 30%
29%
26%
20%
23% Disapprove
22% 21%

10%

0%
Jun Jul Sep Mar May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
13 25 19 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
'17 '18 '19

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8. President Trump's corporate tax cuts:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Have already increased capital


spending and growth by an
amount that makes their cost 21%
worthwhile

Will eventually increase capital


spending and growth by an
amount that makes their cost 35%
worthwhile

Will never increase capital


spending and growth by an
amount that makes their cost 35%
worthwhile

Don't know/unsure 9%

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9. How have the Trump administration's deregulation


efforts affected economic growth?

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very
positive effect 33%

Somewhat
positive effect 49%

No effect 9%

Somewhat
negative effect 5%

Very
negative effect 0%

Don't
know/ unsure 5%

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10. When comparing the potential benefits of


deregulation, such as economic growth, to the potential
costs, such as environmental damage or reduced safety
for consumers and banks, the:

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Benefits outweigh
the costs 53%

Costs outweigh
the benefits 23%

Benefits and costs


are roughly the same 9%

Don't know/unsure 14%

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11. If President Trump nominates STEPHEN MOORE to


the Federal Reserve, WILL he be confirmed by the
Senate?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes 51%
33%
Apr 8
No 19% Apr 30
51%
Don't
know/ 30%
16%
unsure

For those answering “no”: Why not?


(Respondents could select more than one answer)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Not 15% of all respondents


qualified 28% of all respondents 57%

Personal 13% of all respondents


issues 26% of all respondents 52%

Too
political, 15% of all respondents
threatening 35% of all respondents 71%
Fed's…

Other
14% 7% of all respondents

Other responses:
• He is not an economist, has taken some • He is unethical. He is dogmatic. He plays fast
extreme policy positions. and loose with numbers which is a no-no at
• Moore has behaved terribly. Not worthy of Fed the Fed. His 'talents', which play well for Op-Ed
governor status. writing (as long as no one is fact-checking),
play very badly for the central bank that must
have credibility instead of promoting
incredulousness.

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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

12. If President Trump nominates STEPHEN MOORE to


the Federal Reserve, SHOULD he be confirmed by the
Senate?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes 34%
28%
Apr 8
No 60% Apr 30
63%
Don't
know/ 6%
9%
unsure

For those answering “no”: Why not?


(Respondents could select more than one answer)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Not 43% of all respondents 71%


qualified 37% of all respondents 62%

Personal 28% of all respondents 46%


issues 30% of all respondents 50%

Too
political, 47% of all respondents 79%
threatening
Fed's 35% of all respondents 69%
independence

7% 4% of all respondents
Other
8% 5% of all respondents

Other responses:
• There are many people who are more qualified, including many of the people who are responding to this survey.
• Dogmatic, catastrophe, more...

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13. Regarding trade negotiations between China and the


U.S., which of the following is most likely this year?
Mar 20 Apr 30

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

New U.S. 2%
tariffs imposed
on China 0%

A trade agreement 79%


between China
and the U.S. 77%

An agreement
to continue 17%
talks without
a new agreement
19%

2%
Don't know/unsure
5%

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14. How have your 2019 and 2020 forecasts for GDP and
inflation been affected by recently enacted U.S. tariffs
and retaliatory tariffs by other nations? (Expressed as
incremental change of forecast in percentage points)

Average responses:

Survey Sep 25 Nov 7 Dec 12 Jan 29 Mar 20 Apr 30


date

2019 -0.11 -0.11 -0.20 -0.16 -0.16 -0.17


GDP: pct pct pct pct pct pct
points points points points points points

2020 -0.10 -0.01 -0.03


GDP: pct pct pct
points points points

2019 +0.11 +0.15 +0.07 +0.07 +0.02 +0.07


Headline pct pct pct pct pct pct
inflation points points points points points points
(CPI):

2020 +0.05 +0.01 0.00


Headline pct pct pct
inflation points points points
(CPI):

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15. What is your estimate of the long-run potential


growth rate of the U.S. economy?
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

Mar 20 2.34%
Survey

Apr 30 2.31%

16. Has your estimate of potential growth changed as a


result of the late 2017-tax cut?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Yes 38%
36%
Mar 20

No 60% Apr 30
62%
Don't
know/ 2%
unsure 2%

17. (For those answering yes to previous question)


By how much?
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
-1.0%
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.5%
Averages:
-0.4%
-0.3%
Mar 20
-0.2%
-0.1% +0.37% Mar 20
0.0%
0.1%
Apr 30
0.2%
0.3%
0.4%
Apr 30
0.5%
0.6%
+0.35%
0.7%
0.8%
0.9%
1.0%

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FED SURVEY
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18. By how much will the current global slowdown


increase or decrease U.S. GDP growth this year?
Mar 20 Apr 30
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

-2.0%

-1.8%

-1.6%

-1.4%

-1.2%

-1.0%
Averages:
-0.8%
Mar 20
-0.6% -0.32%
-0.4%

-0.2%
Apr 30
-0.26%
+0.0%

+0.2%

+0.4%

+0.6%

+0.8%

+1.0%

+1.2%

+1.4%

+1.6%

+1.8%

+2.0%

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FED SURVEY
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19. What role are trade tensions and tariffs playing in


the global economic slowdown?
Mar 20 Apr 30
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Significant 45%
role
31%

Modest 48%
role
64%

No role 7%
at all
2%

Don't 0%
know/
unsure 2%

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FED SURVEY
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20. Another government shutdown this year is:


Mar 20 Apr 30
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

7%
Likely
7%

79%
Unlikely
79%

Don't 14%
know/
unsure
14%

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

21. Where do you expect the S&P 500 stock index will
be on … ?
December 31, 2019 December 31, 2020

3,200

3,100

3038 3028
3005
3,000 2975
2946
2928 2936 2925

2,900 2974
2846
2879 2836
2862
2861
2,800

2774
2750
2,700

2,600

2,500
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
2018 2019
Survey Dates

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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

22. What do you expect the yield on the 10-year


Treasury note will be on … ?
December 31, 2019 December 31, 2020

4.0%

3.54% 3.56%
3.54%
3.51% 3.53%
3.5% 3.44%

3.45% 3.29%
3.24%
3.17%

3.06%
3.16% 2.89%
3.0%
3.03%

2.92%

2.75%

2.5%

2.0%
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
2018 2019
Survey Dates

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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

23. Where do you expect the fed funds target rate will
be on … ?
3.1%
Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2021
3.04%
3.01%
2.98%
3.0% 2.99%

2.87% 2.98%
2.90%
2.93%
2.9% 2.86% 2.95%

2.92%
2.87%
2.85%
2.8%

2.73% 2.80% 2.74%


2.70% 2.70%
2.68% 2.66%
2.7% 2.67% 2.69%

2.67% 2.67%

2.65%
2.60% 2.48%
2.6%

2.56%
2.56%

2.54% 2.51%
2.5%
2.49%
2.49%

2.44%
2.4%
2.42% 2.41%

2.36%
2.3%

2.2% 2.22%

2.1% Jan Jan Jan


Nov Dec Mar May Jun Jul Sep Oct Dec March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Mar Apr
31 30 29
1 13 14 2 13 25 19 31 12 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 20 30
'17 '18 '19
Dec 31, 2019 2.22% 2.67% 2.70% 2.73% 2.68% 2.56% 2.42% 2.49% 2.60% 2.54% 2.80% 2.86% 2.87% 2.98% 2.93% 3.01% 3.04% 2.69% 2.66% 2.56% 2.48%
Dec 31, 2020 2.70% 2.67% 2.90% 2.85% 2.87% 2.95% 2.92% 2.98% 2.99% 2.74% 2.65% 2.51% 2.41%
Dec 31, 2021 2.67% 2.49% 2.44% 2.36%

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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

24. At what fed funds level will the Federal Reserve stop
hiking rates in the current cycle? That is, what will be the
terminal rate?
3.6%

3.4% 3.34%
3.30% 3.29%
3.24%
3.20%
3.17% 3.27%
3.2%
3.18% 3.21%
3.11%
3.16% 3.06% 3.11%

2.98%
3.0% 3.04% 2.95% 2.94%
2.98%
2.92%
2.94%
2.91% 2.86%
2.85% 2.85%
2.8%
2.79% 2.73% 2.80% 2.81%
2.65%
2.69%

2.6% 2.65% 2.64% 2.66%

2.58% 2.48%
2.56%

2.4% 2.42% 2.44%

2.29%
2.2%

2.0%
Sep 16

Jul 28

Jul 26

Sep 20

Jul 25
Sep 19

Jul 31
Sep 25
Apr 28

Apr 26

Apr 30
Sept 16

May 2

March 20
May 1
Aug 20

Dec 16

Mar 17

Dec 13

Mar 14

Dec 12

Dec 18

Mar 20
Jan 27, '15

Aug 25

Dec 15

Mar 15

Aug 24
Jun 16

Jun 14

Jun 13

Jun 12
Jan 26 '16

Nov 1

Jan 31 '17

Jan 30 '18

Nov 7

Jan 29 '19
Oct 28

Oct 27

Oct 31

Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

25. When do you believe fed funds will reach its


terminal rate?
2017 2018 2019 2020
Survey date
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Aug 20, 2014 Q4
Sept 16 Q3
Oct 28 Q4
Dec 16 Q1
Jan 27, 2015 Q1
Mar 17 Q4
Apr 28 Q1
June 16 Q1
July 28 Q2
Aug 25 Q3
Sept 16 Q1
Oct 27 Q3
Dec 15 Q1
Jan 26, 2016 Q2
Mar 15 Q3
Apr 26 Q4
Jun 14 Q4
Jul 26 Q4
Aug 24 Q4
Sept 20 Q4
Nov 1 Q1
Dec 13 Q2
Jan 31, 2017 Q2
Mar 14 Q2
May 2 Q2
June 13 Q2
Jul 25 Q2
Sep 19 Q2
Oct 31 Q3
Dec 12 Q3
Jan 30, 2018 Q3
Mar 20 Q3
May 1 Q3
Jun 12 Q4
Jul 31 Q4
Sep 25 Q4
Nov 7 Q4
Dec 18 Q1
Jan 29, 2019 Q1
Mar 20* 15% say it has already reached its terminal rate Q2
Apr 30* 29% say it has already reached its terminal rate Q3
* Average does not include those who say it has already reached its terminal rate

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26. What is your forecast for the Q4/Q4 percentage


change in real U.S. GDP for … ?
2019 2020
2.8%

2.7%

2.6%

2.5%
2.44%

2.4% 2.35%

2.3%
2.33%
2.31%

2.2%

2.1% 2.05%

2.0%

1.98%
1.9%
1.92%

1.8%
1.81%

1.7%

1.6%

1.5%
Dec 18 Jan 29 '19 Mar 20 Apr 30
Survey Dates

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

27. What is your forecast for the year-over-year


percentage change in the headline U.S. CPI for …?
2019 2020

2.6%
2.54%
2.51%
2.5%
2.48%
2.46%
2.41%

2.4% 2.40%
2.40%
2.38%

2.3%
2.26%

2.23%
2.2% 2.20%
2.13%

2.1%

2.08%
2.01%
2.05%
2.0%

1.9%
1.90%

1.8%

1.7%
Dec Jan March May Jun Jul Sep Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr
12 30 20 1 12 31 25 7 18 29 20 30
2018 2019
Survey Dates

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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

28. What do you expect the U.S. unemployment rate will


be for:
2019 2020

4.40%

4.20%

4.00% 3.96%
3.93% 3.93%
3.89%

3.79% 3.80%
3.80%

3.77%
3.73%
3.67% 3.66%
3.60% 3.64%
3.61%

3.40%

3.20%
Jun 12 Jul 31 Sep 25 Nov 7 Dec 18 Jan 29 Mar Apr
'19 20 30
Survey Dates

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April 30, 2019

29. What is the single biggest threat facing the U.S.


economic recovery? (Percentage points)

Outcome of US presidential election


European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake


Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks

Worker shortage
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
Apr 30 2 3 2 1
‘13 0 1 0 0 2 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Jun 18
5 8 0 3 3 0 3 0
3 2 1 1
Jul 30
8 0 2 0 2 2 0 4 4
2 2 1
Sep 17
4 7 2 2 0 4 8 7 2
2 2 1
Oct 29
8 9 4 3 3 3 8 3 0
3 2 1
Dec 17
5 2 9 2 0 2 5 2 2
Jan 28 2 3 1 2
'14 7 1 0 2 0 0 2 1 0
1 2 2 1
Mar 18
0 3 6 3 5 0 5 8 0
2 2 1 1
Apr 28
3 6 1 3 5 0 8 8 3 0
1 2 1 1 1 1
Jul 29
2 9 2 6 3 0 2 2 2 3
2 2 1 1
Sep 16
6 6 9 6 3 0 6 1 1 3
3 1 1 1
Oct 28
1 8 5 3 3 0 0 8 8 3
4 1 1 1
Dec 16
0 4 4 3 6 0 3 4 3 0
Jan 27 1 1 4 1
'15 0 3 9 0 0 0 6 6 1 6 6 0

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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Outcome of US presidential election


European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake


Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks

Worker shortage
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
1 2 1 1
Mar 17
6 4 0 3 6 0 6 8 8 7 4 0
1 1 2 1
April 28
3 1 8 3 0 0 6 1 8 8 9 3
1 1 2 2 1
Jun 16
3 7 3 0 0 0 4 5 2 6 1 0
2 1 2
Jul 28
6 1 9 0 0 0 2 6 9 9 9 0
1 4 1
Sept 16
0 6 2 0 4 0 0 8 5 8 4 2
1 4 1
Oct 27
0 8 5 3 8 0 8 3 1 0 5 0
1 1 4 1
Dec 15
0 0 5 0 0 0 8 0 4 5 3 5 0
Jan 26 1 4 2
'16 0 0 5 0 3 0 0 5 4 8 0 3 3
2 3 2
Mar 15
5 1 3 0 0 0 5 5 3 5 0 3 1 0
2 3 1
Apr 26
0 2 2 2 2 0 0 7 6 9 0 7 1 2
2 2 1 1
Jun 14
0 8 5 3 0 0 3 0 8 8 0 5 3 0 0
2 1 2
Jul 26
2 0 7 2 2 0 2 0 2 7 0 7 7 7 2
1 3 1 1
Aug 24
3 9 3 3 0 0 3 3 1 3 3 6 4 1 0
1 1 3 1
Sep 20
0 6 1 3 0 0 0 3 0 8 5 5 8 1 0
2 3
Nov 1
3 7 8 0 3 0 8 3 2 3 0 0 5 8 0

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


Page 30 of 41
FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Outcome of US presidential election


European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake


Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks

Worker shortage
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
1 2
Dec 13
5 9 2 7 0 0 7 7 9 0 2 7 8 5 2
Jan 31 1 1 5 1
'17 0 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
4 1
Mar 14
0 7 2 2 0 0 0 7 4 7 0 2 4 7 4 3 0
2 2 1
May 2
0 8 3 3 0 0 0 5 4 5 0 0 5 6 8 3 0
2 1 1
Jun 13
0 5 5 5 0 3 0 3 1 8 5 0 0 6 8 8 3 0
1 1 2 1
Jul 25
0 5 5 3 3 0 0 0 3 8 5 0 0 0 5 8 8 0
1 1 3
Sep 19
0 2 2 0 2 0 5 2 7 0 7 2 0 2 2 7 7 0
2 1 1 1
Oct 31
0 7 2 2 0 0 0 5 3 5 0 0 2 9 2 4 9 0
1 1 1 1 1
Dec 12
0 7 5 2 0 0 0 7 2 0 2 0 2 2 7 5 5 2 0
Jan 30 2 1 1
‘18 0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 8 0 0 0 3 4 5 3 8 8 0
4 1
Mar 20
0 3 3 8 0 0 0 8 0 3 3 0 0 7 3 0 8 6 0
2 2 1 1
May 1
0 0 3 8 0 0 3 2 5 8 0 0 0 3 5 3 1 1 0
1 3 1
Jun 12
3 0 3 1 0 0 0 3 5 5 3 0 0 5 3 0 8 8 4 0
Jul 31 5 1
0 0 3 8 0 0 3 5 5 3 3 0 0 3 3 0 0 0 8 0
2 2
Sep 25
2 2 2 9 0 0 2 2 7 4 0 2 0 6 4 0 4 2 9 2

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


Page 31 of 41
FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Outcome of US presidential election


European recession/financial crisis

Terrorist attacks in the U.S.

Protectionist trade policies

Overvaluation of equities
Tax/regulatory policies

Trump's temperament
Global econ weakness
Rise in interest rates

Don't know/unsure
Immigration policy

Fed policy mistake


Slow wage growth
Geopolitical risks

Worker shortage
Slow job growth

Debt ceiling
Deflation
Inflation

Deficits

Other
Survey Date
1 1 1 3
Nov 7
0 0 3 7 0 0 0 0 3 7 3 0 0 4 3 0 0 7 1 0
1 1 3 1
Dec 18
0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 7 7 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 9 7 2
Jan 29
‘19 2 2 1 1
0 0 2 0 0 0 2 2 7 0 0 0 0 9 2 0 4 6 6 0
3 2 1
Mar 20
5 2 2 0 0 0 0 5 5 2 0 0 0 7 0 2 2 7 0 0
3 1 1 1
Apr 30 5 0 5 0 0 0 0 7 5 3 0 0 0 7 0 0 2 5 2 0

Other responses:

• China debt bubble bursting


• China hard landing
• Local government zoning and permitting regulations that are
preventing the recovery in residential construction that
normally accounts for much of an economic expansion
• Weak capital spending
• Politics- two parties that seem to hate one another and don't
give a good damn about the American people

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


Page 32 of 41
FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

30. In the next 12 months, what percent probability do


you place on the U.S. entering recession? (0=No chance
of recession, 100=Certainty of recession)

40%

36.1%

35%
This survey:
34.0%
21.7%

30%
28.5% 28.8%

26.0%
26.1%
25.9%
25.3%
25.5%
25% 24.4%
24.1% 23.5% 24.4%
23.2%
22.9% 22.9%
22.1%
22.2% 21.7%
21.6%
20.6% 21.1% 19.3%
20.4%
20% 18.9%
18.4% 18.8%
20.3% 18.2% 18.5% 18.6%
17.3%
18.6% 18.1%
19.1% 16.9% 16.8%
16.9%
17.6% 16.2% 16.4% 17.4% 16.5%
16.7%
15.1% 16.4%
16.2%
15% 15.1%
15.3% 15.0% 14.9%
15.2% 15.2%
14.6% 14.7%
13.6% 14.4%
13.7%
13.0%
13.8%
14.3%

10%
Jun-12

Jun-13

Jun-14

Jun-15

Jun-16

Jun-17

Jun-18
Oct-11

Oct-12

Oct-13

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Oct-18
Dec-11

Dec-12

Dec-13

Dec-14

Dec-15

Dec-16

Dec-17

Dec-18
Feb-12
Apr-12

Feb-13
Apr-13

Feb-14
Apr-14

Feb-15
Apr-15

Feb-16
Apr-16

Feb-17
Apr-17

Feb-18
Apr-18

Feb-19
Apr-19
Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-14

Aug-15

Aug-16

Aug-17

Aug-18

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


Page 33 of 41
FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

31. What is your primary area of interest?

Other
Currencies 17%
0%

Fixed Income Economics


14% 50%

Equities
19%

Comments:

Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer, Bleakley Advisory


Group: As the Fed claims a falling stock market as a tightening of
financial conditions, will they acknowledge at the meeting that we
now have a loosening of financial conditions?

Kathy Bostjancic, Chief US Financial Market Economist,


Oxford Economics: The FOMC is on hold as it "patiently" evaluates
economic and inflation data. Before deciding on the next rate
adjustment, Fed officials want to gauge the strength of global
crosscurrents and see evidence of an economic rebound after a weak
start to Q1. Moreover, policymakers seem unlikely to pull the
tightening trigger again unless they also see inflation appreciably
and sustainably accelerating above the 2% target.

Robert Brusca, Chief Economist, Fact and Opinion Economics:


God help us... save us from ourselves!

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


Page 34 of 41
FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

John Donaldson, Director of Fixed Income, Haverford Trust


Co.: The odds of a Fed cut are now 50% for October and 65% by
next January. We believe those are well overstated. The most likely
course is no policy action, neither a cut nor an increase. Therefore,
bond yields are likely near the low end of their trading range for the
year.

Mark Elenowitz, CEO, TriPoint Global Equities: The robust


economy and Trump effect are coming to an end as we are seeing a
downturn in economic signals over the past several months that are
indicating the Fed will need to react and rethink its strategy.
Contrary to our leader's views, the current administration is
struggling to make America Great!

Mike Englund, Chief Economist, Action Economics, LLC: The


2019 U.S. growth slowdown is proving much smaller than the market
feared. The Fed will need to boost its growth estimates in the June
SEP, after March cuts that appear to have been unduly influenced by
market narratives.

Robert Fry, Chief Economist, Robert Fry Economics LLC: The


slow productivity growth of the 2010-Q4 to 2017-Q1 period is not
the "new normal." It's the "great aberration," the result of the
financial crisis (Democratic explanation), bad tax and regulatory
policies (Republican explanation), and oil prices that exceeded
$100/bbl from early 2010 through mid-2014. All of these factors are
behind us now, meaning that productivity growth (and potential GDP
growth) will return to more-normal rates going forward.

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Kevin Giddis, Head of Fixed Income Capital Markets, Raymond


James Financial: This has always been an inflation game, and the
Fed continues to be frustrated by its "failure to launch" this mandate.
Now here we are with solid growth and arguably full employment,
but the U.S. economy faces yet another downturn, because it can't
seem to solve modern day supply/demand. As a result, we may have
just missed one of the greatest economic opportunities of our
lifetime.

Stuart Hoffman, Senior Economic Advisor, PNC Financial: The


strong first quarter real GDP rise with little inflation drove a stake
through the heart of those economists and stock market "vampires"
who appear on CNBC with too little reference to their recently way-
off-base predictions.

Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist, National Securities: As the


Fed has clearly pivoted from being autopilot hawkish to “The Year of
Living Patiently,” I think one of the biggest surprises for 2019 may
well be stabilizing economic growth globally and a fourth-quarter
rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Constance Hunter, Chief Economist, KPMG: The U.S. economy is


in a Goldilocks phase. Solid jobs and wage growth are buttressing
consumption. It is important to remember, however, that this is
Goldilocks relative to potential GDP, which is only about 1.9% and
held down by low population growth and tepid productivity growth.
At this relatively slow pace, the U.S. is vulnerable to shocks, whether
of our own making or due to economic conditions outside our
borders.

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Barry C. Knapp, Managing Partner, Ironsides


Macroeconomics: The capital spending boom in intellectual
property products and software in particular continued through
1Q19. It seems highly likely the 2018 recovery in productivity was
no fluke and there will be continued strength in 2019. It seems
there was a positive supply side shock. I do not agree that
monetary policy should be eased in response to the expansion of the
supply side. Excessively easy policy has impaired creative
destruction this cycle. Additionally, from a markets perspective,
each cycle since WWII has had a policy normalization-related equity
market correction. This cycle has had eight. Five of them have been
related to large-scale asset purchase programs.

David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer,


Cumberland Advisors: Two Fed spots are now likely to remain
vacant for the rest of Trump’s first term. Moore's behavior and
baggage means non-confirmation by the Senate. Trump would prefer
to bash the Fed than to complete the board with acceptable
appointees.

Guy LeBas, Chief Fixed Income Strategist, Janney


Montgomery Scott: The interest rate markets are now pricing
~40% chance of recession by 2020, which is in stark contrast to the
near-record level of U.S. equities. Bonds tend to be early on
recession calls and stocks late.

Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer, Trend Macrolytics:


Your question about the effect of tariffs on growth is too simplistic.
The tariffs are only a weapon in a war. The war is the important
thing, not the weapon. If the weapon wins the war, and China
becomes a more open and accountable economy, it will stimulate
long-term growth substantially. But that isn't fundamentally a result
of the tariffs themselves.

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Rob Morgan, Chief Investment Officer, Sethi: The Fed has


telegraphed well that they expect no further rate hikes in 2019.
Joel L. Naroff, President, Naroff Economic Advisors: Powell
overreacted in December. Though the Fed is still below neutral, it will
be difficult for it to hike again without stronger growth than would
normally have been necessary. The Fed should never be handcuffed
that way.

Michael Painchaud, Director of Research, Market Profile


Theorems: Equity prices, relative to valuation, interest rates, and
technical condition, are extended at an important inflection point.
The behavior of corporate insiders (increased levels of selling relative
to buying) is consistent with past important equity price peaks.
Conversely, sentiment, as expressed by our broad measure of
market participant classes, approaches overly-bullish levels. Finally,
year-over-year earnings momentum, calculated from the most
recent reports of all listed U.S. companies, has begun another leg
lower, and forces our GDP estimate for the remainder of 2019 to
decline appreciably. Q1 '19 GDP is likely to be far and away the peak
for the year. Trite as it sounds, the old saw of "Go away in May" is
probably more appropriate this year than most.

James Paulsen, Chief Investment Strategist, The Leuthold


Group: With better economic growth in the U.S., green shoots
showing up about the globe, a probable continued gain in wage
inflation, and higher oil prices poised to begin feeding through later
this year into both headline and core CPI numbers, the discussion
surrounding the Fed seems likely to shift in the next couple of
months from 'will they cut' to 'when will they increase' the funds
rate?

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


Page 38 of 41
FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Lynn Reaser, Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene


University: Even if the economy remains strong and investors fuel
risk-taking in financial markets, the Fed will stay on hold until
inflation rises. Meanwhile, although monetary policy should be
preemptive, until the inflationary process is better understood, the
Fed is likely to remain reactive.
Chris Rupkey, Chief Financial Economist, MUFG: The markets
are irrationally pessimistic about the future. There is no recession
coming. There hasn't been a rate cut in the last few decades without
a recession fear on the part of Fed officials. The story that the Fed
made so-called risk management rate cuts, just in case, in the 1990s
is a reinterpretation of history. There was no "risk management
industry" to speak of in the 1990s anyway. Some early stage market
risk management maybe, which just measured the expected P&L of
security portfolios in response to market shocks. Anyway, the Fed
cut rates a few times twice in the 90s in response to job losses and
fear of even more job losses. Cutting rates for low inflation at this
time is ill-advised. The economy is strong enough to generate
stronger returns for savers. I think the Fed should restart its gradual
pace of rate hikes later on this year. No recession, then no rate cut is
our advice.

John Ryding, Chief Economist, RDQ Economics: The Fed's pivot


remains poorly explained particularly given the equity market is now
at record highs, the first quarter looks much stronger than expected,
and there are declining trade tensions and stimulus in China. We
need to have the evolution of the cross currents spelled out by the
chairman and a formal neutral balance of risks assessment.

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


Page 39 of 41
FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Richard I Sichel, Senior Investment Strategist, The


Philadelphia Trust Company: The economy will continue to
surprise on the upside, as will jobs growth/wages and consumer
confidence. Let's hope for a positive resolution to the China trade
talks, which appear to be going as well as can be expected. The
stock market may take a breather soon but long-term investors
should stay on the buy side.

Allen Sinai, Chief Global Economist and Strategist, Decision


Economics: Picture perfect economic prosperity.
Hank Smith, Co-Chief Investment Officer, Haverford Trust
Company: China and the U.S. come to a trade deal soon. Tariffs are
reduced. CEO confidence rises. Business investment increases. The
U.S. economy accelerates in the second half into 2020. This is the
set-up Trump wants to increase his chances for re-election.

Diane Swonk, Chief Economist, Grant Thornton: The primary


risk is a policy misstep on trade. The uncertainty factor is escalating
given the need for wins for the administration in an election year,
and trade is where they can have the largest impact. I am hoping
that Stephen Moore does not make it to the nomination for the Fed,
but worry about who might. There is a clear intent to place political
wins ahead of economic wins by this administration, and the Fed is
an easy target. I fear that the Fed has already suffered in credibility
by the flogging they have taken from the administration. I fear too
few understand what a deep bench the Fed actually has on the board
and among its presidents.

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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FED SURVEY
April 30, 2019

Scott Wren, Senior Global Equity Strategist, Wells Fargo


Investment Institute: Fed worries are likely to be off the table.
Now global growth is the uncertainty holding back the SPX from
sustaining a meaningful new record high. Valuations are not
stretched and are near historical averages. What the market needs
is a reasonable (tariffs gone) trade deal between the U.S. and China
and signs that eurozone GDP growth isn't going to drop further. The
market just needs global growth stabilization (acceleration is not a
requirement). SPX is modestly undervalued, but expansion is not
over and the index could easily be higher at year-end, and more so
in the 12-month forward period. We’re in the early stages of the
underinvested and chasers starting to jump in. In addition, the
consensus is still cautious, which usually means the market has more
upside.

CNBC Fed Survey – April 30, 2019


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