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Global warming and agriculture

The weather conditions - temperature, radiation and water - determine the carrying capacity of
the biosphere to produce enough food for the human propulation and domesticated animals. Any
short-term fluctuations of the climate can have dramatic effects on the agricultural productivity.
Thus, the climate has a direct incidence on food supply.
demographic studies indicate that world population growth is expected to slow markedly in the
next century, increasing of nearly 3 billion people by 2050. Hence, in the coming years, unless
population size is stabilized as soon as possible, agriculture will have to face an increasing
challenge in feeding the growing population of the world.
Many people believe it will also have to face the perspective of global climate changes. A
forecasted climate change is global warming, induced by an increasing concentration of
radiatively active greenhouse gases.
The appreciation of the impacts of potential climatic changes is essential. Many believe it is not
until a certain threshold of gravity of the modifications observed, that it will be convenient or
pressing to deal with these issues. Agriculture is one of these fields that are carefully monitored.
Besides, assessment of the impact of global climate changes on agriculture might help to
properly anticipate and adapt farming to limit potential food shortage.
Table of contents
1 Situation at the beginning of the XXI century
1.1 Assessment on global scale or local scale ?
1.2 Shortage in grain production
2 Models and scenarios used to estimate global climate change consequences
2.3 Climate models limitations
2.4 Crop development models
2.5 Other types of biological models used
2.6 Scenarios in biological models
3 Potential global climate changes consequences on agricultural production
3.7 Temperature potential impact on growing period
3.8 Atmospheric CO2 potential impact on yield
3.9 Water availability impact on productivity
3.10 Erosion and fertility
3.11 Global climate change potential impact on pests, diseases and weeds
3.12 Agricultural surfaces and climate changes
3.13 Ozone and UV-B
3.14 Temporal variability and forecasting of the climate
3.15 Conclusions
4 See also
5 External links

Situation at the beginning of the XXI century

Assessment on global scale or local scale ?
Despite technological advances, such as improved varieties, genetically modificd organisms, or
irrigation systems, weather is still a key factor in agricultural productivity, as well as soil
properties and natural communities. The effect of climate on agriculture is related to variabilities
in climate rather than in global climate patterns. Consequently, agronomists consider it has to be
individually considered for each local area.
On the other hand, agricultural trade has grown in the recents years, and now provides significant
national food amounts to major importing countries, as well as confortable income to exporting
ones. The international aspect of food trade and food security implies the need to also consider
the impacts of climate change on a global scale.
Shortage in grain production
Between 1996 and 2003, grain production has stabilized slightly over 1800 milions of tons. In
2000, 2001, 2002 and 2003, grain stocks have been dropping, resulting in a global grain harvest
short of consumption by 93 milions of tons in 2003.
The earth's average temperature has been rising since the late 1970s, with the three warmest
years on record coming in the last five years. In 2002, India and the United States suffered sharp
harvest reductions because of record temperatures and drought. In 2003 Europe suffered very
low rainfall throughout spring and summer, and a record heat damaged most crops from the
United Kingdom and France in the west through Ukraine in the east. Bread prices have been
rising in several countries in the region. (see w:fr:canicule 2003).
Models and scenarios used to estimate global climate change
consequences
Climate models limitations
Some major limitations to climate changes consequences estimates are related to the models that
are being used.
The climate models are not really able to give accurate projections because of inadequate
understanding of natural processes and computer power limitation. As a consequence, the
assessment of possible impacts of climate changes are based on estimations.
Moreover, most models are not able yet to provide reliable projections of changes in climate
variability on a local scale, or in frequency of exceptional events such as storms and drought. For
example, there is a lack of consensus among experts in prediction of regional soil moisture
changes.
Crop development models
The study of the impacts is using other types of models, such as crop development models, yield
prediction, quantities of water or fertilizer consumed. The models condense the knowledge
accumulated in influence of the climate, soil, and agricultural practices. They can make it
possible to test strategies of adaptation to the modifications of the environment.
Because these models are necessarily simplifying natural conditions (often based on the
assumption that weeds, disease and insect pest are controlled), it is not clear whether the results
they give will have an in-field reality. However, some results are partly validated with an
increasing number of experimental results.
Other types of biological models used
Other models, such as insect and disease development models based on climate projections are
also used (for example simulation of aphid reproduction or septoria (cereal fungal disease)
development).
Scenarios in biological models
Scenarios are used in order to estimate climate changes effects on crop development and yield.
Each scenario is defined as a set of meteorological variables, based on generally accepted
projections.
For example, many models are running simulations based on doubled CO2 projections,
temperatures raise ranging from 1�C up to 5�C, rainfall -/+20%. Other parameters may
include, humidity, wind, and global radiation.
Scenarios of crop models are testing farm-level adaptation, such as sowing date shift, climate
adapted species (vernalisation need, heat and cold resistance), irrigation and fertilizer adaptation,
disease resistance.
Most developed models are about wheat, maize, rice and soybean.
Potential global climate changes consequences on agricultural
production
Many scientists position is that agricultural shifts are likely.
Several types of changing parameters can have an impact on agriculture
• a direct effect is the composition of the earth atmosphere :CO2 and ozone. Gases such as
CH4, NO2 and CFC are commonly believed not to have any impact on physiological
processus.
• some indirect effects are climate parameters resulting from climate change : temperature,
insolation, rainfall, humidity
• other indirect effects are the side effects due to the climatic changes : increase of the sea
level, changes in ocean currents, tornadoes...
All these influences combine negatively or positively :
• The assessment of these effects is different whether one considers annuals crops (cereals,
leguminous) or herbaceous perennial cultures (fodder, meadows) or other cultures such as
vine or fruit trees...
• The effects are also different depending on the latitude : in temperate countries, effects
are found less negative or even rather beneficial, while in tropical and desertic countries
they tend to be adverse.
• Finally, effects depend on altitude, mid and high altitude places rather benefiting from a
warmer temperature.
Climate change induced by increasing greenhouse gases is likely to affect crops differently from
region to region. For example, average crop yield is expected to drop down to 50% in Pakistan
according to the UKMO scenario whereas corn production in Europe is expected to grow up to
25% in optimum hydric conditions.
However, the more favourable effects on yield depend to a large extent on realization of the
potentially benefiting effects of CO2 on crop growth and increase of efficiency in water use.
Decrease in potential yields is likely to be caused by shortening of the growing period, decrease
in water availability and poor vernalization.
Temperature potential impact on growing period
Duration of crop growth cycles are above all related to temperature.
An increase in temperature will speed up development. In the case of an annual crop, the
duration between sowing and harvesting will shorten (for example, corn duration cycle could
shorten between 1 and 4 weeks). The shortening of the cycle would rather has adverse effect on
productivity because of senescence occurring sooner.
Temperature changes could also have serious implications for crops and trees that need
vernalisation.
Atmospheric CO2 potential impact on yield
carbon dioxide is a perfect example of a change that could have both positive and negative
consequences.
• CO2 is expected to have positive physiological effects through photosynthesis increase.
This impact should be higher on C3 crops (such as wheat) than on C4 crops (such as
corn). Under optimum conditions of temperature and humidity, the yield increase could
reach 36 % (for a doubling of CO2).
• Higher amounts in CO2 will also reduce the loss of water through transpiration, hence
decreasing the plants need in water.
• On the other hand, other studies also show a change in harvest quality. The growth
improvment in C3 plants could favor vegetative biomass on grain biomass; thus leading
to a decrease in grain production yield.
CO2 is believed by many scientists to be potentially responsible of productivity increase : 10-15
% for wheat and soybean, 8% for corn and rice for a +2�C scenario on average. However, these
results mask great differences among countries.
Water availability impact on productivity
Water is a major limiting factor in the growth and production of crops worldwide.
In spite of better water efficiency use, higher summer temperature and lower summer rainfall is
likely to have adverse impact. The intensification of the hydrological global cycle will have
consequences such as more frequent drought in northern sub-tropical areas or desertification
extension in arid areas. In developed areas of the world agriculture (and competing industry and
municipal users) are mining fossil water supplies. In coastal areas deep water wells also reverse
normal ground water flow toward the ocean, leading to saline water intrusion into aquifers.
Further increases in usage will accelerate the day of reckoning when societies must conform
ground water usage to actual recharge rates.
Erosion and fertility
Soil degradation is more likely to occur, and soil fertility would probably be modified.
• A soil constant is its carbon/nitrogen ratio. A doubling of carbon is likely to imply a
higher storage of nitrogen in soils, thus providing higher fertilizing elements for plants,
hence better yields. The average needs for nitrogen could decrease, and give the
opportunity of changing the fertilisation strategies.
• The increase in precipitations would probably result in greater risks of erosion, according
to the intensity of the rain.
 • The possible evolution of the soil organic matter is a very debated point though : while
the increase in the temperature would induce a greater mineralisation (hence lessen the
soil organic matter content), the atmospheric CO2 concentration would tend to increase
it.
Global climate change potential impact on pests, diseases and weeds
A very important point to consider is that weeds would undergo the same acceleration of cycle
than cultivated crops, and would also benefit of carbonaceous fertilization.
Most weeds being C3 plants, they are likely to compete even more than now against crops such
as corn. However some results make it possible to think that weedkillers could gain in
effectiveness with the temperature increase.
The increase in rainfall is likely to lead to an increase of atmospheric humidity and maybe to the
duration of moisturing.
Combined with higher temperatures, these could favor the development of fungal diseases.
Similarly, because of higher temperatures and humidity, there could be an increased pressure
from insects and disease vectors.
Agricultural surfaces and climate changes
Climate change is likely to increase agricultural land surface near the poles by reduction of
frozen lands. Sea levels are expected to get up to one meter higher by 2100, though this
projection is disputed. Rise in sea level should result in agricultural land loss in particular in
South East Asia. Erosion, submergence of shorelines, salinity of water table, could mainly affect
agriculture through inundation of low-lying lands.

Ozone and UV-B

Some scientists think agriculture could be affected by any decrease in stratospheric ozone, which
could increase biologically dangerous ultraviolet radiation. Excess UV radiation can directly
impact plant physiology, and indirectly through changed pollinator behavior, though such
changes are difficult to quantify.
Temporal variability and forecasting of the climate
Many believe the general foreseeability of the climate will decrease, making it more difficult to
plan agricultural practices. They also think likely that extrem climatic conditions become more
frequent, particularly in terms of intense rainfall, droughts and heat spells.
Conclusions
In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways :
• productivity, in terms of quantity and quality
• agricultural practices, through changes of water use (irrigation), agricultural inputs
(herbicides, insecticides, fertilizers)
• environmental level, in particular in relation of frequency and intensity of soil drainage
(leading to nitrogen leaching), soil erosion, reduction of crop diversity
• rural space, through the loss of previously cultivated lands, land speculation, land
renunciation, hydraulic amenities.
They are large uncertainties to uncover, particularly the lack of information on the local scale,
the uncertainties on magnitude of climate change, the effects of technological changes on
productivity, global food demands, and the numerous possibilities of adaptation.
Most agronomists believe that agricultural production will be mostly affected by the severity
and pace of climate change, not so much by gradual trends in climate.
If change is gradual, there will be enough time for biota adjustement. Rapid climate change,
however, could harm agriculture in many countries, especially those that are already suffering
from rather poor soil and climate conditions.
The adoption of efficient new techiques (varieties, planting date, irrigation...) is far from
obvious. Some believe developed nations are too well-adapted to nowadays climate. As for
developing nations, there may be social or technical constraints that could prevent them from
achieving sustainable production.
See also
• Global warming
• Global warming hypothesis
• Global dimming
External links
• http://fr.news.yahoo.com/030512/202/36vt5.html

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