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STAT 112 : ELEMENTARY PROBABILITY

Exercise 3

particular site. Based on experience and other knowledge concerning

the site’s rock formation and other geological indicators, the oil

company feels that the prior probability that the site has no oil (state

of nature A1 ) is 0.7, some oil (state of nature A2 ) is 0.2 and much oil

(state of nature A3 ) is 0.1.

In order to obtain more information about the potential drilling site,

the oil company can perform a seismic experiment, which has three

reading - Low(E1 ), medium - (E2 ) and high (E3 ). Of 100 past sites

that were drilled and produced no oil (A1 ), 4 of these sites gave a high

reading (E3 ). Of 100 past sites that were drilled and produced no oil

(A2 ), 8 of these sites gave a high reading (E3 ). Of 100 past sites that

were drilled and produced no oil (A3 ), 288 of these sites gave a high

reading (E3 )

(a) Compute the posterior probabilities that no, some and much oil,

will be available given that the seismic experiment gave a high

reading.

the bank’s dive-up window. The bank currently can serve up to 10

customers per 15-minute period without significant delay. The

average arrival rate is 7 customers per 15-minute period. Let x denote

the number of customers arriving per 15-minute period. Assuming x

has a poisson distribution:

15-minute period.

(b) Find the probability that 10 or fewer customers will arrive in a

particular 15-minute period.

1

(c) Find the probability that there will be a significant delay at the

drive-up window. That is to find the probability that more than

10 customers will arrive during a particular 15-minute period.

normal distribution of scores. The students receive raw scores of 63

and 93, which corresponds to z-scores (often called the standardized

scores) of -1 and 1.5, respectively. Find the mean and standard

deviation of the distribution of raw exam score.

stocks are approximately normally distributed with a mean return of

12.4 percent and a standard deviation of 20.6 percent. On the other

hand, the firm reports that the yearly return on tax free municipal

bonds are approximately normally distributed with a mean return of

5.2 percent and a standard deviation of 8.3 percent. Find the

probability that a randomly selected:

(b) Tax free municipal bond will give a positive yearly return.

(c) Common stock will give more than a 10 percent return.

(d) Tax free municipal bond will give more than a 10 percent return.

(e) Common stock will give a loss of at least 10 percent.

(f) Tax free municipal bond will give a loss of at least 10 percent.

with a standard deviation of σ = 2, 000. Find the probability that the

mean salary for a randomly selected sample of 50 mechanics is greater

than 32, 000.

and variance σ 2 , find E[(X − Y )2 ]

−2x

2e /x, 0 ≤ x ≤ ∞

7. f (x, y) =

0, otherwise

2

8. A die is rolled twice. Let X equal the sum of the outcomes, and let Y

equal the first outcome minus the second. Compute Cov(X, Y ).

1 −(y+x/y)

y

e x > 0, y > 0

f (x, y) =

0, otherwise

(b) Show that Cov(X, Y ) = 1.

e−x/y e−y

y

0 < x < ∞, 0 < y < ∞

f (x, y) =

0, otherwise

11. Show that X and Y are identically distributed and not necessarily

independent, then Cov(X + Y, X − Y ) = 0

+1 b > 0

ρ(x, y) =

−1, b < 0

13. Show that Z is a standard normal random variable and Y is defined

b

by Y = a + bZ + cZ 2 , then ρ(Y, Z) = √b2 +2c 2

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