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From: 'Douglas Grandt' via Healthy Climate Alliance healthy-climate-alliance@googlegroups.

Subject:Re: [HCA-list] HCA Community Call
Date:May 4, 2019 at 5:39 PM
To:Mark Hibbert, Clive Elsworth, Peter Fiekowsky,
John Nissen, Peter Wadhams, Andrew Bailey
Cc: Healthy Climate Alliance

Peter, Mark, Clive, John, Peter, Andrew, et al. -

As follow up to the question how to insert CDR / DAC into the climate emergency discussion in the UK and in context
with Senator Murkowski’s staff showing interest at Peter’s D.C. event, yesterday I had a 30-minute phone conversation
with John Crowther, a newly reassigned lead energy person on the Republican staff of the Senate Energy & Natural
Resources Committee (ENR), which Senator Murkowski chairs. Following is the essence of that conversation, which the
ENR staffer seemed to comprehend and guardedly indicated he would consider in due course of evaluating legislative
options and drafting Senator Murkowski's current ENR bill-in-progress.

Conundrum: DAC will be required to drawdown excess CO2 generated during the winding down of petroleum which will
extend well beyond the window of time required by science to avert 1.5°C or 2.0°C because the oil companies don’t
generate sufficient profits to fund (in an expeditious manner) paying their own ‘final expenses” to lay them and their
rusting, rotting, toxic infrastructure to rest, pay down their debt, and equitably compensate pension funds, foundations,
superannuations, insurance companies and other institutional investors, ma & pa investors, etc. for billions of
outstanding shares in investment portfolios around the globe.

Problem: Forcing petroleum corporations to go out of business on an accelerated schedule won’t give them enough time
to put their profits into decommissioning all refineries, pipelines, wells, and oil field gathering, storage and processing
infrastructure, which will shift that burden onto the next generations to pay.

Example: ExxonMobil (XOM) has 25 refineries to decommission at an estimated cost of $7bn - $10bn each. In addition,
XOM has about $40bn in debt that must be paid down. In order to avert a panic sell-off (divestiture) of XOM market
capitalization, 4.2 billion shares must be bought-back at an equitable (current?) value. Those obligations would likely
exceed $600bn.

With a recent annual profit of $20bn declining to zero over the remaining life, that is an average of $10bn/year profit. It
would take 60 years to cover the $600bn not counting pipelines, wells and oil field processing facilities.

Globally, there are over 750 refineries (about 30 times as many as XOM operates) and crude oil production is about 25
times XOM’s. Other producers' and refiners’ infrastructure, operating financials, price/earnings and debt ratios are lower
and higher than XOM, but extrapolating XOM finances globally, total “final expenses” could exceed $6tn - $18tn.

Direct Air Capture: The IPCC has stated that we must reduce CO2 emission by about half within 12 years (4%/year) and
to zero by about 2050 (2.5%/year). That is a 32-year winding down window. If we adopt a policy of forcing the oil and
gas industry to fund their “final expenses” entirely from its profits, we will generate elevated emissions for at least 28
years longer than the IPCC suggests—likely a couple decades longer. That carbon must be removed in addition to
removing the excess CO2 already released into the atmosphere and oceans since the mid-1700s. (Refer to the
illustrative graphic which is a simple example of a 30-year and 50-year scenario, below.) With the petroleum industry
paying the costs, We the People will be spared economic crisis.

Alternative: If renewable electricity and the electrification of transportation, heating and carbon fuel-based industrial
processes proliferate beyond expectation and accelerate the decline in demand for carbon fuels, that will drive the
industry out of existence sooner than later. On the one hand, that is positive for our task of restoring a healthy climate
and averting the worst scenarios. However, if we force the petroleum industry to go out of business and allow the
corporations to file bankruptcy without covering their "final expenses,” our progeny will be saddled with that expense,
which could amount to $10tn - $20tn, more or less, depending on many assumptions.

Where would the funds come from? What impact would that have on the global economy. How might that effect social
stress, turmoil, mayhem?

In any event, it seems that CDR / DAC will have to begin soon on an emergency basis and ramp up quickly — better to
err on the high side for the sake of financial/economic considerations not to mention the usual climate considerations of
extreme weather, floods, drought, heatwaves, vortex-driven freeze), disease, hunger, thirst, sea level rise, oceanic
effects (coral, plankton, fisheries), etc.

What will bring about social deterioration first, “natural” climate/weather events or “artificial" financial collapse?

It’s a quandary!

Doug Grandt
A simple illustrative graphic of a 30-year and 50-year petroleum industry winding-down and CDR scenarios

On May 3, 2019, at 9:48 AM, Mark Hibbert <> wrote:


An invite to join the regular HCA Community calls where we discuss all matters pertaining to climate restoration:


The link for the Zoom call is here:

The times are 6:00 to 7:00 pm BST OR 10:00 to 11:00 am PDT

See you tomorrow!

Mark Hibbert

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