0 views

Uploaded by Grecia Ugarte

desing expert

- Practice Exam1
- A Linear Regression Model for Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surfaces at Warri, Nigeria
- Regress
- tugas
- Car1
- ATTITUDE TO RESEARCH IN RELATION WITH THE RESEARCH MANAGEMENT OF RESEARCHERS IN DIFFERENT GROUPS OF DISCIPLINES
- InTech-Optimizing Feeding Systems
- 36855351 TQM Statistical Tools
- Six Sigma Tool Training Topic
- Simple Correlation Converted 23
- Linear Regression Example Data
- Determinants of Rural Poverty
- 12 Green Open Spaces in Shopping Malls
- madam madiha.pdf
- IO 3 Page Report
- Oneway ANOVA ppt
- abc.xlsx
- 1-s2.0-S2212017314000851-main
- 3 Técnicas de Soldadura Dental Con Láser y Plasma Aplicadas a La Aleación Ti-6Al-4V Resistencia a La Tracción Final y Análisis de Elementos Finitos
- Session #10A

You are on page 1of 12

4/16/07

(Part 1 – The Basics)

Introduction

In this tutorial you will see how the tool of regression in Design-Expert® software,

intended for response surface methods (RSM), can be applied to historical data. We

don’t recommend you work with such happenstance variables if there’s any possibility

of performed a designed experiment. However, if you feel you must, why not take

advantage of how easy Design-Expert makes it to develop predictive models and graph

responses, as you will see by doing this tutorial. It will be assumed that at this stage

you’ve mastered many of the program features by completing the preceding tutorials. At

the very least you ought to first do the one-factor RSM tutorials, basic and advanced,

prior to starting this one.

The historical data for this tutorial, shown below, comes from the U.S. Bureau of Labor

Statistics via James Longley (An Appraisal of Least Squares Programs for the Electronic

Computer from the Point of View of the User, Journal of the American Statistical

Association, 62 (1967): 819-841). As discussed in RSM Simplified (Mark J. Anderson

and Patrick J. Whitcomb, Productivity, Inc., New York: Chapter 2), it presents some

interesting challenges for regression modeling.

Ru A: B: C: D: E: F: Employ.

n Prices GNP Unemp. Military Pop. Time

# (1954 Armed People Year Total

=100) Forces >14

1 83 234289 2356 1590 107608 1947 60323

2 88.5 259426 2325 1456 108632 1948 61122

3 88.2 258054 3682 1616 109773 1949 60171

4 89.5 284599 3351 1650 110929 1950 61187

5 96.2 328975 2099 3099 112075 1951 63221

6 98.1 346999 1932 3594 113270 1952 63639

7 99 365385 1870 3547 115094 1953 64989

8 100 363112 3578 3350 116219 1954 63761

9 101.2 397469 2904 3048 117388 1955 66019

10 104.6 419180 2822 2857 118734 1956 67857

11 108.4 442769 2936 2798 120445 1957 68169

12 110.8 444546 4681 2637 121950 1958 66513

13 112.6 482704 3813 2552 123366 1959 68655

14 114.2 502601 3931 2514 125368 1960 69564

15 115.7 518173 4806 2572 127852 1961 69331

16 116.9 554894 4007 2827 130081 1962 70551

Longley data on U.S. economy from 1947-1962

Assume that the objective for analysis of this data is to predict future employment as a

function of leading economic indicators – the factors labeled A through F in the table

above. Longley’s goal was different: He wanted to test regression software circa 1967

for round-off error due to highly-correlated inputs. Will Design-Expert be up to the

challenge? We will see!

Let’s begin by setting up this “experiment” (quotes added to emphasize that this is not

really and experiment, but rather an after-the-fact analysis of happenstance data).

Start Design-Expert. You will then see the main menu and icon bar. To save you time

typing stuff, we will re-build a previously saved design rather than enter it from scratch.

Using your mouse, press the Open Design icon (or select File, Open Design).

The data should now appear on your screen. To re-build this design (and thus see how it

was created), press the blank-sheet icon on the left of the toolbar (or select File, New

Design).

DX71-04H-HistRSM-P1 Rev. 4/16/07

Now you see how this design was created via the Response Surface tab and Historical

Data option.

Note that for each of the 6 numeric factors we entered the name, units and range from

minimum (“Min”) to maximum (“Max”). Before moving ahead, you must also tell

Design-Expert how many rows of data you want to type or paste into the design layout.

In this case there are 16 rows.

Press Continue to accept all the entries on this screen. You now see details on the

response(s) – in this case only the one we will study.

Response entry

Press Continue to see the resulting design layout in run order (ignore the column

labeled “Std” because there will be no standard order for happenstance data).

You could now type in all the data for factor levels and resulting responses, row-by-row.

(Don’t worry: We won’t make you do this!) However, in most cases the data will

already be available via a Microsoft Window’s based spreadsheet. Then simply drag

over this data, copy it to the Window’s clipboard, and Edit, Paste (or right-click and

Paste as shown below) into the design layout within Design-Expert after first dragging

the top row, as shown below, or over all the destination cells.

If you simply click the upper left cell in the empty run-sheet, the program will only past

one value.

DX71-04H-HistRSM-P1 Rev. 4/16/07

Normally you’d save your work at this stage, but since we already did this, simply re-

open our file: Press the Open Design icon and double-click Longley.dx7. Click

No to pass on the opportunity to save what you did previously.

Before we get started, be forewarned that you will now get exposed to quite a number of

statistics related to least squares regression and analysis of variance (ANOVA). If you

are coming into this cold, pick up a copy of RSM Simplified and keep it handy. For a

good guided tour of these statistics for RSM analysis, attend the Stat-Ease workshop

RSM for Process Optimization. Details on this computer-intensive hands-on class,

including what’s needed a prerequisite, can be found at www.statease.com.

Under the Analysis node click the branch labeled Employment. Design-Expert then

displays a screen for transforming the response. However, as noted by the program, the

range of response in this case is so small that there would be little advantage to applying

any transformation.

Go ahead and press Fit Summary. Design-Expert then evaluates each degree of the

model from the mean on up. In this case, the best that can be done is linear. Anything

above that becomes aliased.

Fit Summary – only the linear model possible in this case

It’s all set the way the software suggested. Notice that many of the two-factor

interactions cannot be estimated due to aliasing symbolized by the red tildas (~). Hold

on to your hats (because this data is really just a lot of hot air!) and press ANOVA for

the analysis of variance.

DX71-04H-HistRSM-P1 Rev. 4/16/07

Notice that although the overall model is significant, some terms are not.

You may have noticed that this ANOVA is labeled as “[Partial sum of squares - Type

III]. This approach to ANOVA, done by default, causes the total sums-of-squares (SS)

for the terms to come up short of the overall model when analyzing data from a non-

orthogonal array, such as historical data. If you want SS terms to add up to the model

SS, go to Edit, Preferences and change the default to Sequential (Type I). However, we

do not recommend this approach because it favors the first term put into the model. For

example, in this case the ANOVA by partial SS (Type III -- the default of DX) for the

response (employment total) calculates prob>F p-value for A as 0.8631 (F=0.031) as

seen above, which is not significant. Recalculating ANOVA by sequential sum of

squares (Type I) changes the p to <0.0001 (F=1876), which looks highly significant, but

only because this term (main effect of factor A) is fit first. That simply is not correct.

ANOVA (partial SS), let’s see what happens with it removed. However, before we do,

on the Bookmarks click the R-Squared look at some statistics (shown below) that

will help us compare what happens before and after reducing the model.

Model statistics

Coefficient estimates for linear model

Notice the huge VIF’s (variance inflation factor). A value of 1 is ideal (orthogonal), but

a VIF less than 10 is generally accepted. VIF’s above 1000, such as that observed for

factor B (GNP), indicate severe multicollinearity in the model coefficients (that’s bad!).

In the follow-up tutorial (Part 2) based on this same Longley data, we will delve more

into this and other statistics generated by Design-Expert for purposes of design

evaluation. For now, try right-clicking any of the VIF results to access context-sensitive

Help, or go to Help on the main menu and search on this statistic. You will likely find

some details there.

Press back to Model and via a right-click on A-Prices and Exclude it, or simply

double-click on this term to take off the model (“M”) designation.

You can now go back to ANOVA, look for the next least significant term, exclude it,

etc. However, this backward elimination process can be done automatically in

Design-Expert. Here’s how. First, reset the Process Order to Linear.

DX71-04H-HistRSM-P1 Rev. 4/16/07

Notice that a new field called “Alpha Out” appears. By default the program will remove

the least significant term step-by-step so long as it exceeds the risk level (symbolized

with the Greek letter alpha by statisticians) of 0.1 (estimated by the p-value). Let’s be a

bit more conservative by changing Alpha Out to 0.05.

Changing the risk level alpha for taking out model terms via backward selection

Not surprisingly the program first removed A and then E – that’s it. Take a look at the

ANOVA table that follows to see that all the other terms come out significant.

You may’ve noticed that in the full model, factor B had a much higher p-value than

what’s shown above. This instability is typical of models based on historical data.

Scroll down and view the model statistics and coefficients.

Now let’s try a different regression approach – building the model from the ground

(mean) up, rather than from tearing things down from the top (all terms in chosen

polynomial). Press Model, re-set the Process Order to Linear and this time ask for a

Selection based on Forward stepwise regression. To provide a fair comparison of this

forward approach with that done earlier going backward, change Alpha In to 0.05.

Forward selection (remember to re-set the model to the original process order first!)

DX71-04H-HistRSM-P1 Rev. 4/16/07

Heed the caution put up by the program – this approach may not work as well for this

highly-collinear set of factors. See what happens now in ANOVA.

Surprisingly, factor B now comes in first as the single most significant factor. Then

comes factor C. That’s it! The next most significant factor evidently does not achieve

the alpha-in significance threshold of p<0.05.

Take a look at the ANOVA below to see that all the other terms come out significant.

This simpler model scores very high on all measures of R-squared, but it falls a bit short

of what was achieved in the model derived from the backward regression.

Finally, go back to the Model, re-set the Process Order to Linear and check out the

last model Selection option offered by Design-Expert software: Stepwise.

As you might infer from seeing both and Alpha In and Alpha Out now displayed, the

stepwise algorithm involves elements of forward selection with bits of backward added

in for good measure. For details search program Help, but consider this – terms that

pass the alpha test in (via forward regression) may later (after further terms are added)

become disposable according to the alpha test out (via backward selection). If this

seems odd, just look back at how the p-value for factor B changed depending what other

factors were chosen along with it for modeling. To see what happens with this forward

selection method, press ANOVA. The results depend on what you do with Alpha In and

Alpha Out, which default back to 0.1.

As you see on the cautionary message displayed for both forward and stepwise (in

essence an enhancement on forward) approaches, we favor the backward approach if you

decide to make use of an automated selection method. Ideally an analyst will also be an

expert on the subject matter, or have such a person readily accessible. Then they could

do model reduction via the manual method filtered not only by the statistics, but also

common sense of someone with profound knowledge of the system.

This concludes part 1 of our exploration of the Longley data set. In Part 2 we will dig

further under the covers of Design-Expert to see some interesting aspects in the residual

analysis under Diagnostics, and also see what can be gleaned from its sophisticated tools

under Design, Evaluation.

- Practice Exam1Uploaded byDeta Detade
- A Linear Regression Model for Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surfaces at Warri, NigeriaUploaded byMichael Stephen
- RegressUploaded byJake Zozobrado
- tugasUploaded byYM RIZAL
- Car1Uploaded byVipin Tyagi
- ATTITUDE TO RESEARCH IN RELATION WITH THE RESEARCH MANAGEMENT OF RESEARCHERS IN DIFFERENT GROUPS OF DISCIPLINESUploaded byAnonymous CwJeBCAXp
- InTech-Optimizing Feeding SystemsUploaded byNaman Mahmoudi
- 36855351 TQM Statistical ToolsUploaded byprabu06051984
- Six Sigma Tool Training TopicUploaded bychauhan.nipun
- Simple Correlation Converted 23Uploaded bySivaji Naidu
- Linear Regression Example DataUploaded bySunny
- Determinants of Rural PovertyUploaded byAlexander Decker
- 12 Green Open Spaces in Shopping MallsUploaded byDanielleMarieBaldedara
- madam madiha.pdfUploaded byMuhammad Hassan Khan
- IO 3 Page ReportUploaded byArienneVanLeeuwenConnolly
- Oneway ANOVA pptUploaded byVikas K Chauhan
- abc.xlsxUploaded byHồ Ngọc Thanh Hiền
- 1-s2.0-S2212017314000851-mainUploaded bymanpreet
- 3 Técnicas de Soldadura Dental Con Láser y Plasma Aplicadas a La Aleación Ti-6Al-4V Resistencia a La Tracción Final y Análisis de Elementos FinitosUploaded byManuel Humberto Rojas Arca
- Session #10AUploaded byAkash Gupta
- Anova for Setting Time and Grams (Mihaila, Summer 12C)Uploaded byGenesis Agcaoili
- JUS Ryu Nov20Decision Models for Comparative Usability Evaluation of Mobile Phones Using the Mobile Phone Usability QuestionnaireUploaded byMotovn Sport
- Effectiveness of Multimedia ReadingUploaded bySuketi Ronggolawe
- MTEXT_TCUploaded bycpagne
- Chapter1-3TestStudyGuide.docxUploaded bybooky777
- Do firms get what they want from green management adoption? : an Taiwan International Hotel PerspectiveUploaded byJager Chen
- NET Psycho II Dec 2009Uploaded byfandus
- twowayUploaded byEko Fitria Wardani
- Chapter 14Uploaded byRohanPanuganti
- Abstract 140Uploaded byrrdpereira

- BTX Cap 2-16Uploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- Clase 3.2 diseño experimentalUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- DX71-03D-TwoLevelSplitPlotUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- handbk_for_exp_sv.pdfUploaded byJuly Revilla
- Clases de diseño experimentalUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- DX71 04F MultifactorRSM DoptUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- EJEMPLO DE OPTIMIZACIÓN MONTGOMERY EJ. 11Uploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- BTX-1-9Uploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- 2.pdfUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- clase 4 diseño experimentalUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- CLASES DE DISEÑO EXPERIMENTALUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- CLASES DE DISEÑO EXPERIMENTALUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- DX71 04G MultifactorRSM CatUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- DX71-03C-FoldoverUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- DOE1.pdfUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- Diseño de Experimentos - MontgomeryUploaded byCarlos Avila
- Absorcion_desorcion_metal_PB(II)_38CIEBV.pdfUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- Cuestionario resuelto p fluidez.docxUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- Ch 07 - Separators And FiltersUploaded byRozan Zamputti
- Quotation of AEC4540Uploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- Takno+Machine-Jelly+candy+line+150kgUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- CALDERO DEL HOSPITAL DEL NIÑO MANUEL ASCENCIO VILLARROE.docxUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- Guía de Laboratorio Punto de Fluidez v2Uploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- TRABAJO FINAL CONTROL.docxUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- Nitto HydracUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- Distribuidor de VaporUploaded byalvarofer16
- Equipos y Maquinaria PropuestosUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- CARACTERIZACION DE GAS NATURAL: DEFINICIONESUploaded byGrecia Ugarte
- CARACTERIZACION DE GAS NATURAL: DEFINICIONESUploaded byGrecia Ugarte

- The Importance of Quality LightingUploaded byblack_belter789
- Eurachem_Guide_AML_2013.pdfUploaded bytrifan ioana
- LAB10 (1)Uploaded byMuhammadAxadKhataabGujjar
- Horst Rinne-The Weibull Distribution_ a Handbook-Chapman and Hall_CRC (2008)Uploaded byPavel Joser Atauchi Rojas
- BEAM 161(Explicit 3-D Beam)Uploaded bydeua2004
- IB Geography Internal Assessment ChecklistUploaded bybrettlee2003
- MID for 16911-1 Application to Manual Stack Emissions Monitoring V1 July 2014Uploaded bylobopt77
- 40533Uploaded bydayakalai
- CIE Geography paper 4 IGUploaded byAlireza Majlesi
- does for play a part in packaging the neccessity to sculpt fragranceUploaded byapi-374635716
- Business Statistics Chapter 1Uploaded byCuongtony
- smedUploaded byNithin Chandra
- DNV_Structure design of offshore Ships.pdfUploaded byCandra
- Petford,Kerr and Lister (1993). Dike Transport of Granitoid Magmas.Uploaded byAllan Ramirez
- Settlement of Foundations (Notes)Uploaded byMuhammad Fahmi Anb
- T4 AnswerUploaded bykristin_kim_13
- Evaluation of Definite Integrals PDFUploaded byDale
- Chapter 16Uploaded byangel
- Chapter 5 Selection of Characteristic Values for Rock and Soil Properties Using Bayesian Statistics and Prior KnowledgeUploaded byAline
- 07 Simple Linear Regression Part2Uploaded byRama Dulce
- Performance of PenetrationUploaded bychongpt
- 1-s2.0-S2212041615000558-main.pdfUploaded byAgus Romadhon
- 86 The effects of enterprise resource planning implementation strategy on cross-functionality.pdfUploaded byjohnlavu
- American Hospital Formulary Service (AHFS) Pharmacologic-Therapeutic Classification SystemUploaded byBrian Harris
- 7 Aspects of a Dynamic PresentationUploaded byAsma Chaudhry
- 0 A_refining Fitness Check Sfpr - Last FinalUploaded byfoamtrailer
- geomappingUploaded bySaxena
- RakUploaded byAmir Ahmad
- Statistics M102 Measures of Central TendencyUploaded byMayur Somvanshi
- Corrosion StandardsUploaded byPeter Dominic