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ANCOVA for Dichotomous Dependent Variables

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CHAPTER 15

Dependent Variables

15.1 INTRODUCTION

Examples can be found in all research areas. A behavioral science researcher may

want to know if social support systems have an effect on whether students graduate, a

pharmaceutical researcher may want to know if two drugs have differential effects on

patient survival, a manager may want to investigate the effects of a new production

process on having an accident, and a medical market researcher may want to know

if potential customers exposed to various types of information buy a product. Each

of these examples has a dependent variable that is dichotomous (i.e., graduate vs. do

not graduate, survive vs. do not survive, accident vs. no accident, and purchase vs.

no purchase). Variables of this type lead to descriptive and inferential problems when

analyzed using standard ANCOVA or corresponding regression methods.

The two categories of the dichotomous dependent variable are usually assigned

the values zero and one. If conventional regression analysis is used to estimate the

ANCOVA model when Y is a 0–1 outcome and the predictors are dummy vari-

ables (used to identify treatment conditions) and covariates, three problems will be

encountered. They are

1. The values predicted from the equation may be outside the possible range for

probability values (i.e., zero through one).

2. The homoscedasticity assumption will be violated because the variance on Y

will differ greatly for various combinations of treatments and covariate scores.

3. The error distributions will not be normal.

The Analysis of Covariance and Alternatives: Statistical Methods for Experiments, Quasi-Experiments,

and Single-Case Studies, Second Edition. Bradley E. Huitema.

© 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Published 2011 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

321

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The achievement outcome data presented in Example 6.1 (Chapter 6) are approxi-

mately continuous, but they can be modified (for purposes of this chapter) to become

dichotomous. This was accomplished by changing each achievement score to 0 if the

original value was 33 or less, and to 1 if the original value was equal to or greater

than 34. Hence, each subject was classified as either unsuccessful (0) or successful

(1) with respect to achievement. This 0–1 dependent variable was then regressed

(using OLS) on the group-membership dummy variables and the covariate in order

to estimate the parameters of the ANCOVA model.

After the model was fitted the equation was used to predict the probability of

academic success for each of the 30 subjects. That is, dummy variable and covariate

scores for each subject were entered in the equation and Ŷ was computed for each

subject. It turned out that one of the predicted values was negative and one was greater

than one. This is an undesirable property for a procedure that is intended to provide

a probability value. But this is not the only problem with the analysis.

Recall that the conventional approach for identifying departures from ANCOVA

assumptions involves inspecting the residuals of the fitted model. The residuals shown

below are from Example 6.1.

0.5

0.0

RESI1

–0.5

–1.0

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2

FITS1

that the variation of the residuals around the mean of zero is small at the lower and

upper ends of the “Fits” distribution and very large in the middle. This pattern can

be expected when a conventional OLS model is fitted to a dichotomous outcome.

Problems other than heterogeneity of variance are also apparent (e.g., departures

from normality). Because these problems can be anticipated when OLS models are

applied to studies using binary (dichotomous) dependent variables some alternative

is usually sought.

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comes, by far the most frequently used approach is to apply logistic regression mod-

eling. Logistic models have much in common with ordinary least squares models but

the correspondence is clouded by statistics, terminology, and estimation procedures

that are unfamiliar. The unfamiliarity begins with the nature of the quantity that is

modeled.

The focus of research that uses a dichotomous outcome variable is on the proba-

bility that some event (such as graduating from high school or having a heart attack)

will occur. The population probability of the event is often denoted as π . Although

the value of this parameter is what we want to know, there are problems if we attempt

to model it directly. It might seem that we should be able to easily estimate the

following regression model:

πi = β0 + β1 X 1i + β2 X 2i + · · · + βm X mi

were possible it would be misspecified. The reason it is impossible is that we do not

have a column of π s. That is, we cannot regress π on the predictors because the

outcome score we have for each subject is not π ; rather, the outcome score available

is a zero or a one. Even if we had the π , we would discover that it is not a linear

function of the parameters; instead it is a nonlinear function of the β parameters.

This implies that neither conventional multiple regression nor polynomial regression

qualify. Rather, a model of π that is nonlinear in the parameters is needed.

Fortunately, we need not give up on the conceptual convenience of the linear

model. There is a simple way of transforming π to a value that is a linear function of

the β parameters. The transformation is often called the logit link function, which is

often denoted by g(π ) or logit (π ). It is unfortunate that the term “logit” has caught

on, because there is a more meaningful term that actually describes what it is; the

alternative is “log-odds.” The latter term makes sense if the term “odds” (or, to be

more specific, “odds ratio”) is understood.

Odds Ratio

π

The odds of an event occurring is defined as 1−π . This is simply the population

proportion (or probability) of a “1” response (the event occurred) divided by the

proportion of “0” responses (the event did not occur). For example, if the proportion

of subjects who pass a test is .75 the odds ratio is .75

.25

= 3. The odds ratio for the

occurrence of an event has properties that are very different than the properties of

the proportion. One problem with proportions is that the substantive implications of

a given difference in proportions that fall near .50 are often very different than that

of the same difference falling near zero or one.

Suppose a study comparing two treatments finds that a difference in the proportion

of patients who survive is (.55 − .45) = .10, and a second study finds a difference

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of (.15 − .05) = .10. Although the treatment effect in each study is an absolute

difference in proportions of .10, the relative improvement in the two studies is quite

different. The first treatment in the first study resulted in a relative increase .10/.45 =

22%, whereas the first treatment in the second study resulted in a relative increase

of .10/.05 = 200%.

Whereas the proportion is confined to values zero through one, the odds ratio

ranges from −∞ to +∞. This important property has implications for justifying the

assumptions of the logistic model, which models the logit.

Logit

π

The population logit is defined as loge ( 1−π ). It can be seen that this is simply the log

(using base e) of the odds ratio; the less popular term “log-odds” is certainly more

descriptive than logit, but I stick with the more popular term in the remainder of the

chapter. The sample estimate of the logit computed for subject i is denoted as

π̂i

loge

1 − π̂i

π

loge = β0 + β1 X 1 + β2 X 2 + · · · + βm X m ,

1−π

π

Note that loge ( 1−π ) is modeled as a linear function of the predictors. This model

is one of a family of models known as generalized linear models. It is not possible to

estimate the parameters of this model using OLS procedures. Instead, the estimation

is carried out using the method of maximum likelihood. Software for maximum

likelihood estimation of this model is widely available. The Minitab binary logistic

regression routine is used in subsequent examples.

Probability Estimation

After the parameters are estimated there is often interest in computing the probability

of an “event” for certain subjects or groups. Suppose a study uses a dichotomous

variable where the event is experiencing a heart attack. If this event is scored as

1 and not having a heart attack is scored as 0, the probability of being a 1 given

certain scores on the predictors is likely to be of interest. The probability estimates

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π̂i =

1 + eb0 +b1 X 1i +b2 X 2i +···+bm X mi

I now return to the example described at the end of Section 15.1. Dichotomous

ANCOVA can be computed on 0–1 outcome data via logistic regression; the ap-

proach is very similar to the method used to compute conventional ANCOVA through

OLS regression. The software and the details are different but the general ideas are

the same.

The first step is to regress the dichotomous dependent variable on the dummy

variables and the covariate using logistic regression. Second, regress the dichotomous

dependent variable on only the covariate. The output from both steps is shown below

for the three-group example described in Section 15.1.

Link Function: Logit

Response Information

Variable Value Count

Dichotomous Y 1 18 (Event)

0 12

Total 30

Logistic Regression Table

Odds 95% CI

Predictor Coef SE Coef Z P Ratio Lower Upper

Constant -4.32031 1.92710 -2.24 0.025

D1 -1.49755 1.14341 -1.31 0.190 0.22 0.02 2.10

D2 1.42571 1.23264 1.16 0.247 4.16 0.37 46.60

X1 0.101401 0.0400053 2.53 0.011 1.11 1.02 1.20

Log-Likelihood = −13.966

Test that all slopes are zero: G = 12.449, DF = 3, P-Value

= 0.006

Link Function: Logit

Response Information

Variable Value Count

Dichotomous Y 1 18 (Event)

0 12

Total 30

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Odds 95% CI

Predictor Coef SE Coef Z P Ratio Lower Upper

Constant -3.38749 1.75255 -1.93 0.053

X1 0.0790462 0.0362325 2.18 0.029 1.08 1.01 1.16

Log-Likelihood = −16.993

Test that all slopes are zero: G = 6.394, DF = 1, P-Value

= 0.011

Note that like OLS regression output, there is a column heading for predictors,

coefficients, and standard errors for the predictors. Unlike OLS output, there is

neither a column of t-values nor an ANOVAR summary table with the F-test for

the multiple regression. Instead we find z, p, the odds ratio, the 95% confidence

interval on the odds ratio, the log-likelihood, and a G-statistic along with the related

degrees of freedom and p-value. The z- and p-values are direct analogs to the t- and

p-values in OLS, and the G-statistic is the analog to the ANOVAR F. The G-value can

be interpreted as a chi-square statistic. The log-likelihood is related to the notion of

residual variation but it will not be pursued in this brief introduction. Additional detail

on logistic regression is available in the excellent work of Hosmer and Lemeshow

(2000).

A very convenient property is associated with the two G-values shown above.

Denote the first one as G (D1 ,D2 ,X ) ; it is associated with three predictors (D1 , D2 , and

the covariate X) in this example. Denote the second one as G (X ) ; it is associated with

only one predictor (the covariate X).

The difference (G (D1 ,D2 ,X ) − G (X ) ) = X 2AT . This chi-square statistic is used to test

for adjusted treatment effects. The null hypothesis can be written as: H0 : π1 adj =

π2 adj = · · · = π j adj , where the π j adj are the adjusted population probabilities of a “1”

response. This hypothesis is the analog to the hypothesis tested using conventional

ANCOVA, and the chi-square statistic is the analog to the conventional ANCOVA

F-test. The G-values and the associated degrees of freedom described in the output

shown above are summarized in Table 15.1.

The p-value associated with an obtained chi-square of 6.100 with two degrees

of freedom is .047. This is implies that at least one of the three adjusted group

probabilities of academic success differs from the others.

The approach shown in this example generalizes to any number of treatment

groups. If there are two treatments, the first regression includes one dummy variable

and one covariate; the second regression includes only the covariate. Similarly, if

Table 15.1 Omnibus Test for Adjusted Treatment Effects in an Experiment with Three

Treatment Groups, One Covariate, and a Dichotomous Outcome Variable

Predictors in the Model G-Statistic Degrees of Freedom

D1 , D2 , X G (D1 ,D2 ,X ) = 12.449 3

X G (X ) = 6.349 1

Difference = 6.100 = χAT 2

Difference = 2

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there are four groups, the first regression includes three dummy variables and the

covariate; the second regression includes only the covariate.

As mentioned previously, the chi-square test shown above is a test on differences

among groups with respect to adjusted probabilities of the event “1” occurring. The

adjusted probability for group j is computed by entering (a) the group membership

dummy variable scores associated with group j and (b) the grand means of covariates

X 1 through X C in the fitted equation shown below:

π̂ j adj =

1 + eb0 +b1 d1 +···+b J −1 d J −1 +b X̄ 1 ..+···+b X̄ C ..

Minitab will compute these adjusted probabilities. When entering menu commands

for logistic regression, click on “Predictions” and enter the appropriate dummy vari-

able scores and grand covariate means in the window below “Predicted event prob-

abilities for new observations.” The corresponding command line editor commands

used to compute the adjusted mean probability for the first treatment group in the

example study are listed below.

SUBC> Logit;

SUBC> Eprobability ‘EPRO4’;

SUBC> Brief 1;

SUBC> Predict 1 0 49.333;

SUBC> PEProbability ‘PEProb4’.

The complete logistic regression analysis output (not shown here) appears; the last

portion of the results contains the adjusted mean probability for group 1 (labeled as a

predicted event probability). It can be seen below that π̂1 adj = .3067. The last line of

output confirms that the values entered for dummy variables and the grand covariate

mean are 1, 0, and 49.333.

Output

Predicted Event Probabilities for New Observations

New Obs Prob SE Prob 95% CI

1 0.306740 0.170453 (0.0842125, 0.680404)

New Obs D1 D2 X1

1 1 0 49.333

The same approach is used to compute the adjusted probabilities for groups 2 and

3. They are: π̂2 adj = .8917 and π̂3 adj = .6642. The chi-square statistic is the omnibus

test for differences among these three values; they are the essential descriptive results

that will be reported. An alternative is to convert the probabilities to the corresponding

odds ratios (i.e., .44, 8.23, and 1.98).

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Table 15.2 Test for Homogeneous Logistic Regressions in an Experiment with Three

Treatment Groups, One Covariate, and a Dichotomous Outcome Variable

Predictors in the Model G-Statistic Degrees of Freedom

D1 , D2 , X , D1 X , D2 X G (D,X,DX) = 13.716 5

D1 , D2 , X G (D,X) = 12.449 3

Difference = 1.267 = χAT

2

Difference = 2

slopes can be tested using a model comparison F-test. A chi-square analog to this

test is described in this section for logistic regression.

Two logistic regression models are estimated. The first model is based on all

dummy variables required to identify groups, the covariate, and the products of each

dummy variable times the covariate. The second model includes only the dummy

variables and the covariate. The G-statistic associated with the second fitted model

is subtracted from the G-statistic associated with the first fitted model to provide the

chi-square statistic used to test the homogeneity of the logistic regression slopes. The

summary of the application of this procedure to the example data of the previous

section is shown in Table 15.2.

The p-value associated with the obtained chi-square is .53; it is concluded that

there are insufficient data to reject the homogeneous regression assumption.

The approach described in the case of one covariate generalizes directly to multiple

covariates. The first step involves the logistic regression of the 0–1 outcome variable

on all required dummy variables and all covariates. The second step involves the

regression of the 0–1 outcome variable on all covariates. The corresponding G-

statistics are G (D,X) and G (X) .

The example shown below has three groups and two covariates. The 0–1 outcome

scores are identical to those used in the previous section; the two covariates are the

same as shown in the example of multiple covariance analysis presented in Chapter

10 (Table 10.1). As can be seen in the output shown below, the first regression has

two dummy variables and two covariates. The second regression has two covariates.

D2, X1, X2

Link Function: Logit

Response Information

Variable Value Count

Dichotomous Y 1 18 (Event)

0 12

Total 30

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Odds 95% CI

Predictor Coef SE Coef Z P Ratio Lower Upper

Constant -4.78770 2.10304 -2.28 0.023

D1 -1.82844 1.44725 -1.26 0.206 0.16 0.01 2.74

D2 1.46749 1.33841 1.10 0.273 4.34 0.31 59.78

X1 0.0410009 0.0496310 0.83 0.409 1.04 0.95 1.15

X2 0.735960 0.391550 1.88 0.060 2.09 0.97 4.50

Log-Likelihood = -11.093

Test that all slopes are zero: G = 18.196, DF = 4, P-Value

= 0.001

Link Function: Logit

Response Information

Variable Value Count

Dichotomous Y 1 18 (Event)

0 12

Total 30

Logistic Regression Table

Odds 95% CI

Predictor Coef SE Coef Z P Ratio Lower Upper

Constant -3.49999 1.80934 -1.93 0.053

X1 0.0144772 0.0472354 0.31 0.759 1.01 0.92 1.11

X2 0.698334 0.363340 1.92 0.055 2.01 0.99 4.10

Log-Likelihood = −14.177

Test that all slopes are zero: G = 12.027, DF = 2, P-Value

= 0.002

The difference between the two G-statistics is 6.169 and the difference between

the degrees of freedom associated with the G-statistics is 2. The p-value associated

with an obtained chi-square value of 6.169 is .0457. Hence, it is concluded that there

are differences among treatments with respect to the probability of academic success.

The estimated probability of success for each treatment and the associated predictor

scores used to compute it can be seen in the output listed below.

Group 1

New Obs Prob SE Prob 95% CI

1 0.286258 0.199094 (0.0560666, 0.730323)

Values of Predictors for New Observations

New Obs D1 D2 X1 X2

1 1 0 49.3333 5

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Group 2

Predicted Event Probabilities for New Observations

New Obs Prob SE Prob 95% CI

1 0.915468 0.0856622 (0.552986, 0.989563)

Values of Predictors for New Observations

New Obs D1 D2 X1 X2

1 0 1 49.3333 5

Group 3

Predicted Event Probabilities for New Observations

New Obs Prob SE Prob 95% CI

1 0.713984 0.198870 (0.270144, 0.943934

Values of Predictors for New Observations

New Obs D1 D2 X1 X2

1 0 0 49.3333 5

Multiple comparisons among the mean adjusted event probabilities estimated for

the various treatment groups may be of interest. If so, approximate analogs to

Fisher–Hayter and Tukey–Kramer approaches are shown in Table 15.3. The stan-

dard errors SEi and SE j shown in this table are included in the previously described

Minitab output associated with the option for “Predicted Event Probabilities for New

Observations.” The critical values are based on infinite degrees of freedom.

section. The relevant output is shown before the beginning of this section. Note that

the three adjusted event probabilities of success are .286, .915, and .714, for treatments

1, 2, and 3, respectively. The standard errors for these three probabilities are .199094,

.0856622, and .198870, respectively. Tests on all three pairwise comparisons may

Event Probabilities

Type of Test Formula Critical Value

π̂i − π̂ j

Fisher–Hayter =q q J −1,∞

(S E i )2 + (S E j )2

2

π̂i − π̂ j

Tukey–Kramer =q q J,∞

(S E i )2 + (S E j )2

2

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Outcome Data

Logistic Logistic Multiple Multiple Logistic

ANOVA ANOVA ANCOVA ANCOVA ANCOVA ANCOVA

p = .220 p = .178 p = .010 p = .047 p = .002 p = .046

Ȳ1 = 30 π̂1 = .40 Ȳ1 adj = 28.48 π̂1 adj = .31 Ȳ1 adj = 28.98 π̂1 adj = .29

Ȳ2 = 39 π̂2 = .80 Ȳ2 adj = 40.33 π̂2 adj = .89 Ȳ2 adj = 40.21 π̂2 adj = .92

Ȳ3 = 36 π̂3 = .60 Ȳ3 adj = 36.19 π̂3 adj = .66 Ȳ3 adj = 35.81 π̂3 adj = .71

be of interest. For example, the FH-type test for treatments 1 and 2 is computed as

follows:

.286 − .915

= 4.10 = q.

(.199094)2 + (.0856622)2

2

test and infinite degrees of freedom is 2.77; it is concluded that π1 adj = π2 adj . Corre-

sponding tests for comparing treatments 1 versus 3 and 2 versus 3 yield p-values of

.14 and .25, respectively.

The example of dichotomous outcome data analyzed in this chapter was obtained by

simply forcing quantitative data into a dichotomy. It is of interest to compare results

of conventional ANCOVA on the original data (previously presented in Chapters 6,

7 and 10) with those using logistic analysis on the transformed data. Whenever

information is thrown away by forcing continuous data into a dichotomy (almost

always a bad practice), there is usually a loss of sensitivity unless there are outliers in

the original data. So larger p-values are expected using dichotomized data. Table 15.4

summarizes results from parallel analyses.

The pattern of outcomes is completely consistent for all analyses regardless of the

descriptive measure. That is, treatment 1 yields the poorest performance and treatment

2 yields the highest performance with respect to means, adjusted means, proportions,

and adjusted proportions. Inferentially, however, it can be seen that the p-values

for conventional ANCOVA and multiple ANCOVA are considerably smaller than

for the logistic counterparts. This confirms common wisdom regarding the effects

of forcing a continuous variable into a dichotomy. Of course, when the dependent

variable is a true dichotomy (e.g., alive versus dead) the methods of this chapter are

recommended.

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15.9 SUMMARY

ANCOVA model that is designed for dichotomous outcome variables. Dichotomous

ANCOVA can be carried out using two regressions. First, the dichotomous outcome

is regressed on all group membership dummy variables and all covariates using

logistic regression. Second, the dichotomous outcome is regressed on covariates.

The G-statistic from the second regression is subtracted from the G-statistic from

the first regression to compute a chi-square statistic. This chi-square is used to test

the hypothesis that the adjusted event probabilities are equal for all treatments. The

methods shown in this chapter generalize to other analyses related to ANCOVA such

as tests for homogeneous regression, picked points analysis, and quasi-ANCOVA.

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