Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127

Reliability of a small power system using solar power and hydro

S.G. Jimmy Ehnberga,∗ , Math H.J. Bollenb
a Department of Electric Power Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
b STRI AB, Ludvika, Sweden

Received in revised form 15 May 2003; accepted 20 September 2004

Available online 25 December 2004

Abstract

This paper studies the availability of the electricity supply when the sources consist of a combination of solar energy and a small hydro
installation. Instead of flow-of-river, a small reservoir is used. By not using the hydro energy during sunny periods, the natural flow-of-river
fills up the reservoir for later use. A model for global solar radiation is proposed with an astronomical part (deterministic) and a meteorological
part (stochastic). The meteorological part is based on a Markov model of the cloud coverage. The solar model does not require solar radiation
measurements, just cloud observations. A case study has been performed for Timbuktu (16.75◦ N, 0.07◦ W) in which generation availability is
simulated for four different cases: solar power only; solar power with storage; solar and hydro power and solar and hydro power with storage.
To be able to use exclusively renewable energy sources, a combination of sources is needed to secure the reliability of the supply. Using solar
cells in combination with a small reservoir is favorable. Even with a weak flow the affect of the flow on the day time reliability is minor, but
great benefits can be found for reliability during low load hours (night time).
© 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Solar power; Power system reliability; Renewable energy; Cloud coverage; Hydro power

1. Introduction Research in this subject is mainly focused on household

Energy supply in remote rural areas consisted traditionally
mainly of wood, being a contributing factor to deforestation.
With electrification, the source of energy shifted to diesel fuel
and batteries. Neither of them are environmentally friendly
and the transport costs could be very high.
Electrification needs to allow both day and night time ac-
tivities. Important day time activities are industrial activities
and education of younger children. Education of adults and
older children are often a night time activity since they nor-
mally are needed to work in farming during day time. The
need of education for both older children and adults is of great
importance for the development in this kinds of areas and is
further discussed in [1]. Electrification for leisure activities
like watching television are often also desired.
∗
Corresponding author. Tel.: +46 31 772 16 30; fax: +46 31 772 16 33.
E-mail address: jimmy.ehnberg@elteknik.chalmers.se
(S.G.J. Ehnberg).
electrification [2–4], with high load in the mornings and the
evenings. This is one way of increasing the living standard
and it may help in the long run since it gives possibilities for
education. By creating possibilities for more industrial activ-
ities the living standard may be increased even further. It is
not only for non-agriculture activities but also more effective
agriculture industry, with, e.g. water pumping.
When designing autonomous power systems with renew-
ables it is often combined with a diesel generator to secure
the reliability. The diesel generator is seen as necessary to
achieve a reasonable reliability [5]. Therefore, much research
is conducted on minimization of usage of diesel fuel [6]. But
one may doubt the necessity of such a diesel generator.
Renewable energy sources are often abundantly available
in many developing countries in the world, like Africa and
Asia, and without charge which makes them interesting as
power sources, despite the fact that that they difficult to
control and posses a stochastic behavior. Using solar power
as power supply for day time use is favorable because the

0378-7796/$ – see front matter © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.epsr.2004.09.009
120 S.G.J. Ehnberg, M.H.J. Bollen / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127

main industrial activities take place at day time and therefore corresponding to the nine levels of cloud cover. A matrix with
smaller or even no storage is needed. transitions between the different states is defined:
There are both advantages and disadvantages of renew-  
ables but by combining the different sources some disadvan- λ00 λ01 · · · λ08
λ 
tages can be minimized, like the reliability problem, while  10 λ11 · · · λ18 
Λ= .   (3)
maintaining benefits like low maintenance cost and low im- .. .. .. 
pact on the environment. Disadvantages like high installation  .. . . . 
costs will remain a problem [2]. λ80 λ81 · · · λ88
The technology behind micro-hydro power is mature and
extremely robust with an expected lifetime of up to 50 years where λij is the probability that the cloud cover is level ϕ
[7] and low maintenance costs [2]. This makes hydro an ideal at the next observation instant given that it is level i at the
source for locations with access to flow-of-river. Even a small current observation instant. The probability λij is estimated
contribution of hydro may already be valuable. from cloud coverage observation data series with the ratio of
Systems, entirely based on solar and hydro power, have the number of transitions from each state to each other state fij
been designed and been successfully realized [8]. In [8], the and the number of transition to each state respectively, shown
main load is used to secure agriculture activities and lighting. in Eq. (4).
By design a slightly larger system will also give possibilities
fij
for non-agriculture wealth-generating activities. λij = 9 (4)
This paper investigates the potential in solar energy for au- k=1 fik
tonomous power systems in rural areas. The focus is on sup-
plying industrial loads but also minor part residential loads. Different transition matrices may be used for different
The availability of sufficient energy is calculated for solar en- parts of the year to represent seasonal influences by using
ergy with and without addition of hydro power. The effect of different data series. Finally the cloud-cover data, obtained
storage capacity is studied. Instead of using flow-of-river, a from the stochastic model, and the calculated position of the
small reservoir is used to add storage capacity into the system. sun, is used to predict the amount of energy produced by the
solar panels. For this, the empiric determined relationship is
used, proposed by the authors of [11] and the constants can be
2. Models seen in Table 1. They have, from regular observations during
5 years, found the relationship between the global radiations,
In this section, the models, used in the case studies, are the elevation angle of the sun (ϕ) and the cloud coverage (N)
presented.
a0 (N) + a1 (N) sin ϕ + a3 (N) sin3 ϕ + L(N)
S= (5)
a(N)
2.1. The solar power model
If the local elevation angle resulting from (2) is below zero
The model for the availability of solar power, consists of the global solar radiation is set to zero:
an astronomical, part (1–2) to predict the position on the sky
of the sun and a meteorological part (5) to include the trans- If ϕi < 0 then Si = 0 ∀i (6)
missivity of the atmosphere. The astronomical part is deter-
ministic and includes the annual (1) and daily (2) variations To be able to compare the different sources and with
of the solar elevation angle [9]. the load the maximum generation capacity for solar power

 (MGCsolar ) is used. MGCsolar is the ratio between the max-
C(d − dr )
δs ≈ Φr cos (1) imum generation of solar power (clear sky and the sun in
dy zenith) and the maximum load.
The equation for the annual variations is an approximation
under the assumption of a circular orbit of the earth around the Table 1
sun. This approximation is allowed because the excentricity The empirically determined coefficient for (5)
of the orbit is only 0.07, and the results are only used in a N a0 a1 a3 a L
stochastic way. 0 −112.6 653.2 174.0 0.73 95.0

 1 −112.6 686.5 120.9 0.72 89.2
CtUTC −107.3
sin ϕ = sin φ sin δs − cos φ cos δs cos − λe (2) 2 650.2 127.1 0.72 78.2
td 3 −97.8 608.3 110.6 0.72 67.4
4 −85.1 552 106.3 0.72 57.1
A part of the meteorological model is stochastic and based 5 −77.1 511.5 58.5 0.70 45.7
on a Markov model for the nine-level scale of cloud cover 6 −71.2 495.4 −37.9 0.70 33.2
(Oktas, 0/8 through 8/8 parts of the sky covered) that is gen- 7 −31.8 287.5 94.0 0.69 16.5
8 −13.7 154.2 64.9 0.69 4.3
erally used [10]. The Markov model consists of nine states
 S.G.J. Ehnberg, M.H.J. Bollen / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127 121

2.2. The hydro power model is not only to meet the demand from industrial activities but
also education of younger children. Night time demand is
A model of hydro power is suggested due to some kind for education of older children and adults and for power for
of constant, more reliable, power source is needed. A small not stoppable equipment, like refrigerators of vaccine. In this
flow was considered or the yearly minimum flow-of-river. case study, the mean power consumption was 15 kW, which
The flow-of-river may vary a lot during a year so this calcu- corresponds to an energy consumption of 360 kW/h/day.
lation is based on the minimum flow. The design flow is of
great importance of the efficiency of the power station [7], 2.4. Model of the storage
so designing a power station for a large flow which is only
available during some parts of the year will have a higher There are currently several different storage technologies
installation cost and will have a very bad efficiency when the with different advantages and disadvantages. The main types
there is low flow-of-river and the energy is really needed from of technologies are [12]:
the weak flow.
In this study, the flow-of-river was combined with a small • Mechanical: for example, pumped hydro, compressed air
reservoir to introduce storage into the system. The basis of the energy storage and flywheels.
concept was the use of flow-of-river to provide power during • Electrical: for example, super conducting magnetic stor-
darkness and during periods of low insolation and then fill age and capacitors/ultra capacitors.
the reservoir when solar power is available. • Electrochemical: for example, batteries and flow batteries.
The flow-of-river is assumed to be small and a flow of
Which one to use is hard to decide at this stage because
300 m3 /h produces 1 kW/h if the height of fall is in average
the usefulness of the technologies is often dependent on the
2.5 m and the efficiency of the turbine and generator was
location. Some of the technologies are not currently suitable
assumed equal to 50%.
for this application but might be in the future. Therefore, the
Maximum generation capacity for hydro power
behavior of the storage is considered ideal all aspects, like
(MGChydro ) is used for the same purposes as for the
efficiency and discharge depth.
MGCsolar . MGChydro is the ratio between the energy from
the flow-of-river and the maximum load.
3. Case study
2.3. The load model
The solar model in the case studies was conducted with
A static load curve with a rectangular form (see Fig. 1),
latitude of 16.75◦ N and longitude of 3.07◦ W, corresponding
has been used as load model. The load curve should be seen
to Timbuktu (Tombouctou), Mali.
more like a “power requirement” since the load mainly are
The transition rates of the Markov model for the cloud-
industrial. To secure profitable industrial activities the con-
cover levels have been obtained from 27 years of man-made
ditions are important but perhaps are the consistency of the
observations made every 3 h in Gothenburg, Sweden. The
conditions more important. To be able to run the activities
transition probabilities were determined according to Eq. (4).
according to plans are independent of time of the year and
Since the distribution of cloud-levels shows some seasonal
the weather conditions a necessity.
variations, the year was divided into two parts: summer and
The maximum of the load occurs between 7.00 p.m. and
winter. The summer period is between April and September
7.00 a.m. During other times of the day the demand is only
10% of the maximum. The high value of the day time load

Fig. 2. Yearly variation of three selected transition probabilities. The dotted

line shows the transitions probabilities from 0 to 1, the dashed from 7 to 8
Fig. 1. Repetitive unit of the load curve, which is daily repeated. and the solid from 8 to 8.
122 S.G.J. Ehnberg, M.H.J. Bollen / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127

and the rest of the year is considered winter. This split up of Fig. 4 shows the availability of sufficient solar power as a
the year was a result of calculation of the transition probabil- function of MGCsolar . As expected the availability increases
ities for each month, as shown in Fig. 2 were some selected with the increasing generation. When the MGCsolar is below
transitions probabilities are shown. In Fig. 2, the dotted line one the maximum generation is less then the day time load,
represents transition probability from level 0 to 1 while the resulting in zero availability. For large MGCsolar the avail-
dashed and the solid lines shows the transition probabilities ability nears 50%. A value higher then 50% is not possible
from 7 to 8 and from 8 to 8, respectively. because the sun is above the horizon for only 50% of the time.
The resulting transition probabilities are for the summer The solid line shows the mean values of ten simulations while
period:
 
0.4910 0.2873 0.0841 0.0447 0.0233 0.0238 0.0126 0.0199 0.0131
 
 0.1238 0.4925 0.1546 0.0944 0.0452 0.0333 0.0271 0.0208 0.0085 
 
 0.0494 0.2465 0.2634 0.1650 0.0932 0.0739 0.0530 0.0428 0.0129 
 
 
 0.0250 0.1282 0.1953 0.2291 0.1359 0.1072 0.0859 0.0710 0.0223 
 
Λs =   0.0093 0.0779 0.1223 0.1777 0.1813 0.1629 0.1352 0.1046 0.0287 
 (7)
 
 0.0089 0.0410 0.0792 0.1283 0.1456 0.1967 0.1941 0.1640 0.0421 
 
 0.0057 0.0200 0.0465 0.0817 0.1074 0.1679 0.2380 0.2632 0.0696 
 
 
 0.0027 0.0174 0.0234 0.0356 0.0426 0.0810 0.1418 0.4852 0.1703 
0.0026 0.0050 0.0078 0.0116 0.0174 0.0266 0.0550 0.1757 0.6984

and for the winter period:

 
0.5669 0.1839 0.0631 0.0483 0.0298 0.0223 0.0198 0.0304 0.0355
 
 0.2021 0.3997 0.1186 0.0860 0.0412 0.0420 0.0397 0.0455 0.0252 
 
 0.1076 0.2415 0.1798 0.1320 0.0799 0.0679 0.0794 0.0794 0.0373 
 
 
 0.0620 0.1450 0.1419 0.1532 0.1066 0.1040 0.0989 0.1301 0.0584 
 
Λw =   0.0455 0.0996 0.1166 0.1226 0.1257 0.1069 0.1324 0.1821 0.0686 
 (8)
 
 0.0278 0.0710 0.0833 0.1084 0.0887 0.1271 0.1720 0.2212 0.1004 
 
 0.0162 0.0461 0.0616 0.0627 0.0771 0.1023 0.1978 0.3040 0.1322 
 
 
 0.0091 0.0234 0.0231 0.0245 0.0350 0.0460 0.0863 0.5181 0.2346 
0.0057 0.0079 0.0082 0.0103 0.0115 0.0169 0.0303 0.1162 0.7930

To get a higher resolution of the availability calculations,
the simulations were conducted with a time step of 1 h and
the simulation period is 1 year to include all seasonal vari-
ations. For each hour is the total energy during that hour
calculated and compared with the load. To achieve this the
cloud cover levels were interpolated to get values for each
hour. The interpolated values were rounded to the nearest
integer to correspond to a cloud coverage.
3.1. System model: solar power only
The first case considers solar power only. The system
model is shown in Fig. 3. For every hour of the year, the
generation Esun and the load Eload are compared. When
Esun ≥ Eload
the load is considered supplied during that hour. The avail-
ability is calculated as the ratio of the number of supplied
hours and the total number of hours during the simulation
period.
the dotted line shows an arbitrary chosen simulation. The two
curves are considered close enough to justify doing only one
simulation. To reduce the computational time the rest of the
figures is based on only one simulation unless something else
is pointed out.
3.2. System model: solar power with storage
In this case, the surplus of the solar energy is used to
increase the amount of stored energy (see Fig. 5). A shortage
of solar energy is covered by a reduction in the amount of
stored energy.
εstor (i + 1) = εstor (i) + Esun (i) − Eload (i) (10)
with the storage initially empty
(9)
ε(0) = 0 (11)
and the amount of stored energy non-negative and limited in
size:
0 ≤ εstor (i + 1) ≤ εmax
stor (12)
 S.G.J. Ehnberg, M.H.J. Bollen / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127 123

Fig. 5. Model of energy flow in a small power system with solar power and
storage.

Fig. 3. Model of energy flow in a small power system with only solar power.

The load is considered supplied when solar energy plus

storage are sufficient to supply the load:

εstor (i) + Esun > Eload (13)

If the load is not supplied the all the stored energy is con-
sidered used anyway, so:

εstor (i + 1) = 0 (14)

Fig. 6 shows the effect of different maximum storage ca-

pacity on the supply availability. The lines correspond to dif-
ferent storage capacity. The different lines are labeled with
the storage capacity expressed in hours of maximum day time
load. One hour of maximum day time load corresponds to 10 h
of night time load.
Increasing storage capacity, increases the availability of
the supply. The figure shows that it is possible to achieve
an availability exceeding 95%, although this requires a large
area of solar panels and a large amount of storage: 10 times
maximum power in solar panels and storage for 3 h of maxi-
mum energy consumption.
Fig. 6. Availability of a system with different storage capacities at different
level of MGCsolar . The numbers represents the storage capacity counted in
hours of maximum load.
3.3. System model: solar and hydro power
A system model for the combination of solar and hydro
power is shown in Fig. 7. In this case, the surplus in flow-
of-river is stored in the reservoir, but the surplus in the solar
energy is instead lost. The change in stored energy is calcu-
lated as follows:

εhydro (i + 1) = εhydro (i) + Ewater − Eshort (15)

Fig. 4. Availability of a system without storage possibilities as a function

of the maximum generation capacity: solid line: average of 10 simulations; Fig. 7. Model of energy flow in a small power system with solar power,
dotted line: one simulation. flow-of-river and a reservoir as storage possibility.
124 S.G.J. Ehnberg, M.H.J. Bollen / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127
Fig. 8. Model of energy flow in a small power system with solar power and
immediately use of flow-of-river.
and εhydro is limited by
0 ≤ εhydro (i + 1) ≤ εmax
hydro
where Eshort is the shortage in solar energy
Eshort = max(0, Eload − (Esun + εhydro (i)))
and the load is considered supplied if
Eshort = 0
If the load is not supplied the reservoir will be considered
empty as shown in:
εhydro (i + 1) = 0
The use of a reservoir has been compared with the use
of flow-of-river without storage possibilities, according to
Fig. 8. The load was then considered supplied if
Esun + Ewater ≥ Eload
The difference between the two models can be seen in
Fig. 9. The use of a reservoir is marked with a solid line and
the immediately use of flow-of-river is marked with a dashed
Fig. 9. A comparison between use of reservoir (solid) for storage and im-
mediately use of flow-of-river (dashed).
Fig. 10. Availability of a system with a reservoir as storage possibility as a
function of reservoir volume at four different flow levels: solid: 0.04; dashed:
0.07; dotted: 0.11 and dashed-dotted: 0.15, counted MGChydro .
line. Both are given as a function of the size of the reservoir.
(16) The flow-of-river capacity and the installed capacity of so-
lar power are the same in both of the calculation: with and
without reservoir. The size of the reservoir had of course no
(17) effect in the case of immediately use of flow-of-river. The
difference is small but still important. During night time the
flow will cover the load but during day time the flow is very
(18) low compared to the load so it takes several hours (10) of
flow of river to build up supply for 1 h day time load. In the
case where there is no sun but still high load (in the morning
or in the evening) the reservoir will be emptied very fast.
Fig. 10 shows the availability as a function of the reservoir
(19) size at four different river flows MGChydro is, 0.04 (solid line),
0.07 (dashed line), 0.11 (dotted line) and 0.15 (dashed-dotted)
with a fixed amount of installed solar power. The MGCsolar
is 3.6.
As can be seen in Fig. 10, the benefit of larger flow is
(20) more significant for a MGChydro -change from 0.07 to 0.11
then from 0.11 to 0.15. This behavior can be explained as
follows. Amount of river flow above 0.11 supplies the entire
load during the low-load hours (night time). The extra energy
produced with an additional 0.04 will not have a great impact
during day time, because the day time load is much larger. In
Fig. 11, the number of uncovered hours for each time of the
day are plotted. The asterisks represent the values calculated
with a river flow of 0.07 while the circles represents calcula-
tion with a flow of 0.11. The volume of reservoir was fixed
to 1.8 h of maximum load and MGCsolar was 7.
The effect of the increase in flow is mainly during night
time. To limit the number of uncovered hours during morning
and evening a much larger flow of river would be needed as
can be seen in the previous figure.
For consumers of energy the number of shortage is some-
times more important then the actual number of hour of short-
age. This is because every shortage of power means a stop
in the process and planned things cannot be carried out. In
Fig. 12, it can be seen that the number of the shortages de-
creases with the amount of installed power of solar panels
 S.G.J. Ehnberg, M.H.J. Bollen / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127 125

Fig. 11. The distribution of the shortage hours over 24 h for two different Fig. 13. Non-supplied hours as a function of the delivered power.
values of flow-of-river: the asterisks represents MGChydro of 0.07 while the
circles shows for a MGChydro of 0.11.
If the load is not supplied it does not mean that none of
the load is supplied. In the model used before, no distinction
was made between a minor shortage and a complete lack of
with a fixed flow-of-river, a MGChydro of 0.11, and reservoir
power. In the former case, some rescheduling of activities
(1.8 h of maximum load). This is not obvious because it is
may be possible (load scheduling), in the latter case all activ-
also dependent on the duration of the shortage. In a case of
ities depending on electricity will come to a halt. In Fig. 13,
high amount of MGCsolar there might be two short shortages
the number of hours of undelivered power as a function of the
with supplied load in between while for a lower amount of
amount of undelivered power are shown. The horizontal axis
MGCsolar there might be just one shortage with a total dura-
gives the amount of undelivered power as a percentage of the
tion the same as for the case of high amount of MGCsolar .
day time load. The results are obtained for a fixed MGChydro
The duration of shortages for different amount of installed
of 0.11, a reservoir of 1.8 h of maximum load and MGCsolar
solar power can be seen in Table 2. The calculation is obtained
of 7.3. As seen in the figure 10% are always supplied and that
as mean values for 100 simulated years. This table was cal-
corresponds to only flow-of-river generation during day time
culated for five different amount of MGCsolar . The top row
load. It can also be seen that if the load could occasionally be
shows the duration of a shortage and the column to the left
reduced with 10% the number of shortages will be reduced
shows MGCsolar . Each element in table gives the number of
by over 100 shortages.
shortages per year with the given duration. The duration of
a shortage never exceeded 12 h because the flow-of-river al-
ways covered the night time load. The reservoir had a fixed 3.4. System model: solar and hydro power with storage
value of 1.8 h of maximum load and fixed MGChydro of 0.11.
For an increasing amount of solar power, there is a signif- In this case, the surplus in flow-of-river stored in a reser-
icant reduction in the number of long shortages whereas the voir is combined with an ideal storage system for solar en-
number of 1 h shortages remains more or less constant. ergy. A model of the system is shown in Fig. 14. There are
many control strategies for handling this kind of system and
the for the one used here the changes in stored energy were

Fig. 14. Model of energy flow with combined use of solar power, flow-of-
Fig. 12. The number of shortages for as a function of generation capacity. river, a reservoir and ideal storage.
126 S.G.J. Ehnberg, M.H.J. Bollen / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127

Table 2
Number of shortages for different duration for different amount of installed solar power
MGCsolar Duration (h)
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Total
1.2 168.2 182.1 136.0 88.8 57.3 37.2 33.3 22.8 5.5 0.1 0 84.7 815.9
2.4 326.6 193.6 105.2 57.6 40.0 20.2 20.2 7.8 1.7 0 0 9.1 782.0
4.9 408.9 161.2 42.1 13.5 9.0 2.6 637.1
7.3 372.5 119.9 15.5 508.0
9.8 379.4 69.0 448.5
12.2 362.2 44.2 406.5

calculated as follows:

εstor (i + 1) = εstor (i) + Esun − Eload (21)

εhydro (i + 1) = εhydro (i) + Ewater (22)

if

εstor (i) > Esun − Eload (23)

else

εstor (i + 1) = 0 (24)

εhydro (i + 1) = εhydro (i) + Esun + Ewater + εstor (i) − Eload
both εstor and εhydro have their limitations:
εstor (i + 1) ≤ εmax
stor
0 ≤ εhydro (i + 1) ≤ εmax
hydro
In words, if there is a surplus of solar power (directly and
stored) this is used. The stored solar power is thus used before
the hydro reservoir. When the solar-power storage is empty,
εstor (i) + Esun < Eload
the energy stored in the hydro reservoir is used.
The load was considered supplied if:
Eload ≤ Esun + εstor (i) + εhydro (i)
The system shown above has been used with fixed reser-
voir volume (1.8 h of maximum energy consumption) and
fixed MGChydro of 0.11. These values were chosen because
in earlier simulations these values were seen favorable. The
result can be seen in Fig. 15 for three different storage sizes:
no storage (solid line), storage corresponding to 1 h of max-
imum load (dashed line) and storage corresponding to 2 h of
maximum load (dotted line). The influence of the storage is
small. This might depend on the not-optimal control strategy
of the system. To be able to optimize and evaluate the control
strategies of this system more studies are needed.
Fig. 15. Availability of a system with solar and hydro power with storage
possibilities as a function of the maximum generation. The different lines
(25) represents three different storage capacities expressed in hours of maximum
load: no storage (solid), 1 h (dashed) and 2 h (dotted).
4. Discussion of the cases
(26)
Solar power as a source for remote systems is obviously
(27) more suitable for supplying day time load then night time
load. Unfortunately, systems with only day time load are rare
so using solar power as a single power source is not an op-
tion. Solar power may be used for load situations where the
main load is during day time and then combined with stor-
(28) age or another more constant power source, like hydro. By
adding storage to a solar power supplied system the relia-
bility of the system significantly increases. The storage will
be filled during day time and emptied during night time and
other periods of low insolation (high cloud coverage). Due
(29) to the daily pattern in generated solar power the storage will
be efficiently used and a relatively small storage capacity is
needed. To get a generation availability of system of 95% a
large over production is needed, about 10 times maximum
hourly load, and the a storage capacity corresponding to one
quarter of the daily load. If a more irregular source were
used like wind an even higher storage capacity would be
needed.
Flow-of-river in combination with a small reservoir does
not only provide a constant power source but also introduces
storage capacity. If the hydro supplies the load night time,
when solar power is not available, a favorable combination
results. The small reservoir makes it possible to supply possi-
 S.G.J. Ehnberg, M.H.J. Bollen / Electric Power Systems Research 74 (2005) 119–127
ble uncovered high load hours at the end of the day by storing
the hydro energy during solar hour and using it after sunset.
When flow-of-river and storage are combined their advan-
tages will also be combined. The flow-of-river will cover low
load hours and the capacity of the storage can be used during
high load hours. The size of the storage capacity can also be
reduced.
By using a combination of sources the reliability of the
system can be secured without using conventional power
sources, e.g. diesel generators.
5. Conclusions
A simulation methods for hourly solar radiation is pre-
sented based on cloud coverage. The stochastic behavior of
the cloud coverage is calculated using a Markov model di-
vided into two parts, summer and winter. The year can be
divided into more parts depending on the climate and the
data availability, An appropriate subdivision for tropical re-
gion will be in dry and wet seasons.
The great advantage of this model is that standardized
weather observations (cloud coverage observations in Oktas)
in used to train the model. This will enable reliability cal-
culations for new sites without the need for long-duration
measurements of insolation patterns.
The generation reliability was calculated for a hypothetical
load supplied by four different sources. With solar power as
single power source, a higher reliability then 50% will never
be reached independent on the installed power, but by adding
storage capacity the reliability will be significantly higher.
By adding a small part flow-of-river into the system to cover
the low load hours the storage size can be reduced.
Solar power is more suitable for day time load but is not
suitable without storage or a mall more or less constant power
source.
Acknowledgements
This project is financially supported by the Alliance for
Global Substantiality. The authors also wish to thank Swedish
Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) for pro-
viding the meteorological data.
Appendix A. List of symbols
C C = 2π (rad)
d day of the year (days)
dr the day of the year at summer solstice, 22 June for
non-leap years (days)
127
dy total number of days in 1 year (days)
Eload hourly mean value of the load (Wh)
Esun hourly mean value of available solar energy
(Wh)
Ewater hourly mean value of the available hydro energy
(Wh)
N number of eight parts that are cloud covered
(Oktas)
S global solar radiation (W/m2 )
td hours in 1 day (h)
tUTC coordinated universal time (h)
Φr the tilt of the earth’s axis relative to the orbital plane
of the earth around the sun, Φr = 0.409 (rad)
δs solar declination angle (rad)
εhydro available energy in the reservoir (Wh)
εmax
hydro storage capacity of the reservoir (Wh)
εmax
stor storage capacity (Wh)
εstor available energy in the storage (Wh)
φ latitude of the destination (rad)
ϕ local elevation angle (rad)
λ longitude of the location (rad)
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