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Conference Proceedings

of the

2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human

Geography and Environment 2018

Kraków, Poland
28 November – 2 December 2018

Polo Centre of Sustainability

University of Gdansk

Sopot, Poland
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Giuseppe T. Cirella

Conference Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human Geography and Environment 2018

©2018 PCS Publishing, Co., Gdansk University Press

Sopot, Poland

All rights reserved.

Biblioteka Narodowa, serwis e-ISBN, Warsaw, Poland
ISBN 978-83-952699-1-2

© Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy, 2018

© University of Gdansk, Poland, 2018
© 2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human Geography and Environment 2018, Poland, 2018

Polo Centre of Sustainability []

University of Gdansk []
2nd International Conference on Sustainability, Human Geography and Environment 2018 []

Advisory Board, Head

Giuseppe T. Cirella
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
University of Gdansk, Sopot, Poland

Felix O. Iyalomhe
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Valle Holmlund
National Open University of Nigeria, Abuja, Nigeria Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy

Advisory, Managerial Board Antonio Mercuri

Barbara Pawłowska Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
University of Gdansk, Poland
Michele Matejka
Marcin Wołek Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
City of Gdynia, Poland
University of Gdansk, Poland Nikita O. Bodnar
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
Monika Bąk
University of Gdansk, Poland Luciano Sangiovanni
Academy of Economic Studies of Moldova, Moldova
Przemysław Borkowski, Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
University of Gdansk, Poland

Jang Ook Kim Asta Kondrakeviciute

Digital Seoul Culture Arts University, Korea Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy

Dimitris Andreopoulos Allan Bounail

Ministry of Education, Lifelong Learning and Religious Affairs, Greece Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy

Mateusz Rogucki Luigi Borruso

University of Gdansk, Poland
Free University of Bozen-Bolzano, Italy
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
Anna Pohlak
University of Gdansk, Poland
External Committee | Scientific Research
Egle Museikyte-Makarewicz Gökçen Firdevs Yücel Caymaz
University of Gdansk, Poland İstanbul Aydın University, Turkey

Pavla Srstková Pouya Samani

Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy INEGI, University of Porto, Portugal

Hriday Ch. Sarma Marina P. Perez

Center for South-Caucasus-South Asia Business Development, India Indoamerican Technological University, Equador

Stephen M. Treacy Binita Shah

Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy National Institute of Industrial Engineering, India
Milan Trnka Hen Friman
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Holon Institute of Technology, Israel

Tanja Labat Narendra K. Tyagi

Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Central Soil Salinity Research Institute Karnal, India

Anna Bialon Aurobindo Ogra

Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy University of Johannesburg, South Africa

Technical Programme Committee M. M. Sheikh

Rathana Ly Government Lohia PG College, MGS University, India
Life University, Cambodia
Somnath Ghosal
Rural Development Centre, India
Natalia A. Matecka
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy
R. S. Ajin
Kerala State Disaster Management Authority, India
Andrei Bondar
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Soheil Shayegh
FEEM, Italy
Alessio Russo
Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Russia Sayan Bhattacharya
Polo Centre of Sustainability, Italy Nalanda University, India

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 ii ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1. Sustainability . . . . 1

Chapter 2. Human Geography . . . 87

Chapter 3. Environment . . . . 151

Chapter 4. Interdisciplinary Societal Studies 236

Chapter 5. Abstracts . . . . . 329

Chapter 6. Poster Papers . . . . 351

Chapter 7. International Journal of Human

Geography and Environmental
Studies . . . . . 365

Chapter 8. International Journal of

Sustainability Science and
Studies . . . . . 459

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Chapter 1. Sustainability 1
How to reduce low-emission in a small town? Research for the use of local renewable energy sources 2
Szulc, A., and Tomaszewska, B.

Towards an Adaptive Knowledge Sharing in Urban Disaster Risk Reduction and Management 12
Mariano, B.J.

Classifying Urban Climate Zones (UCZs) based on Spatial Statistical Analyses 20

Lee, D., and Oh, K.

Understanding the Disaster Risk by Analysing Historical Situations: Case Study Aceh Tsunami and Haiti Earthquake 27
Mustofa, I.

Designing a model to display the relation between social vulnerability and anthropogenic risk of wildfires in Galicia, Spain 35
Diego, J. de, Rúa, A., and Fernández, M.

Internet based survey on energy use and evaluation, including household machinery and climate impacts 45
Farkas, A., and Mika, J.

Economic Valuation of the Reef Attributes of Cozumel Island 53

Lara-Pulido, J.A., Mojica, Á., Bruner, A., Simon, C., Vázquez-Lavin, F., Guevara-Sanginés, A., and Infanzón, M.J.

Systemic and SMART approach as an instrument for dealing with brownfields 62

Turečková, K., and Nevima, J.

Developing the Urban Thermal Environment Management and Planning (UTEMP) System to Support Urban Planning 68
and Design Lee, D., and Oh, K.

Comparison of land-use change models for Mae Sot special economic zone in Tak province 78
Chavanavesskul, S.

Chapter 2. Human Geography 87

Urban area and population change in a new autonomous city in Indonesia: Evidence Banjar Municipality 88
Supriyadi, A., Wang, T., Chu, S., Ma, T., and Shaumirahman, R.G.

Understanding Information Processing and Consumer Preferences Towards Eco-Friendly Brands 98

Olasiuk, H., and Bhardwaj, U.

Gas exchange parameters for ornamental species of the genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav., grown in a vertical garden under 108
different nutrient conditions Shahanova, M.B., Anev, S., and Tzvetkova, N.P.

Urban Sustainability Indices to Green Infrastructure 114

Pérez- Pérez, M.

Construction of ‘living’ snow fences along highways in Bulgaria 122

Lazarov, M., and Shahanov, V.

Green infrastructure potential evaluation using UAS and optical imagery indices 125
Perc, M.N.

Securitizing Northern Africa – Europe’s Vision of a new Empire? 128

Cserkits, M.

Attracting Tourists to the Alley: Subaltern Urbanism in Kampung Maspati, Surabaya 135
Tauran, T.

Trends in Population Migration in Post-Communist Countries: Case Study of the Czech Republic 142
Novák, V., and Palcrová, Š.

Chapter 3. Environment 151

Economic Role of Forest on Forest Dwellers’ Livelihood in the Central Zagros Forests of Iran 152
Mahmoudi, B.

Urban heat island in maritime Southeast Asia: A systematic review 157

Cortes, A.C.

Planning Sustainable Agriculture in Coastal Areas in Turkey with Tourism Function 167
Kahraman, C.

Flooding in Benin City, Nigeria 175

Iyalomhe, F.O., and Cirella, G.T.

The Effects of Organic Products on Buying Behavior of Parent Families: A Local Sample from Turkey 180
Eroğlu Pektaş, G.Ö., and Karadeniz, M.

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Honey Guacamole Lara-Pulido, J.A., Guevara-Sanginés, A., 187

Torres-Rojo, J.M., Núñez-Hernández, J.M., Riojas, J., Pérez-Cirera, V., Breceda, K., Blas, D.E.-DE, and Barragán. M.J.

Identifying Spatial Measures to Improve Urban Thermal Comfort 194

Park, B., Oh, K., and Suh, J.

Monitoring the flowering period and number of inflorescences of Bituminaria bituminosa (L.) C.H.Stirt. grown considering 206
Maria Thun’s calendar, used in the biodynamic farming Kaydjieva, K.N., and Shahanova, M.B.

A Framework for Assessing the Environmentally Sustainable and Resilience Performance of Domestic Building Materials 209
in Saudi Arabia Almulhim, M.S., Hunt, D.V.L., and Rogers, C.D.F.

Smallholder farmers’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change: Associations with observed climate 215
variability and a calculated drought index Zhang, Q., and Tang, H.

Shelterbelts planning in agricultural territories in Bulgaria 229

Shahanov, V.M.

Chapter 4. Interdisciplinary Societal Studies 236

Sociocultural Carrying Capacity: A methodological proposal to measure the impact of population growth in Rapa Nui 237
Ángel, P.

Sustainability, Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Technologies by Enjoyable Way for Children of the Next 245
Generation Friman, H., Sitbon, Y., Banner, I., and Einav, I.

Paris Agreement in Central Europe – The Case of the Visegrad Group (V4) 251
Tucki, K., Botwińska, K., Bączyk, A., and Wielewska, I.

Adaptive re-use in environmentally sustainable interior design model 260

Celadyn, M.

Reconstruction Paleogeomorphological map of The Nile River in Upper Egypt by using some geomorphological and 269
geoarchaeological indicators Torab, M.

Creating an effective cohesion policy for Europe 2020 283

Paczoski, A., and Cirella, G.T.

Current literature and research opportunities in executive compensation: Evidence from a developing economy 288
Matemane, R.

Gender mainstreaming in waste education programs: A conceptual framework 293

dos Muchangos, L.S. and Vaughter, P.

The role of the international ecological network, Emerald, in Western Balkans protected areas – situation, cooperation and 300
perspectives Požar, T.

Stakeholder Collaboration on Sustainable Water Management in the Hotel Sector: A Network Analysis of Singapore 310
Hu, X., Lovelock, B., Ying, T., and Mager, S.

Do socio-demographic characteristics in waste management matter? Case study of the production of recyclables in the 321
Czech Republic Rybová, K.

Chapter 5. Abstracts 329

Forest Biodiversity, Ecological Attitudes, and Spiritual Praxis: The Future of Buddhist Temples as Forest Management 330
Actors in Japan Hutchins, A.G.

Does the intensively cultivated European landscape need trees or agroforestry? 330
Krčmářová, J.

Selected aspects of the impact of dairy plants on the environment of Poland 330
Tucki, K., Botwińska, K., Bączyk, A., and Wielewska, I.

Systemic and SMART approach as an instrument for dealing with brownfields 331
Bergamini, K.

Effect of selenium on uptake and translocation of arsenic in rice seedlings (Oryza sativa L.) 331
Camara, A.Y., Wan, Y., Yu, Y., Qi, W., and Li, H.

The Importance of Fair Trade and Organic Labels in Sustainable Fashion Consumption 332
Arslan, L.

Sustainability of Critical Infrastructures: Food Security in Germany 332

Schuchardt, A., Hartmann, J., Peperhove, R., and Gerhold, L.

Sludge management quality 332

Gebreeyessus, G.D.

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Bringing Science to the Real World: The Forest Act in São Paulo State, Brazil 333
Brites, A.D.

Using Photosynthetic Microbial Desalination Cells to simultaneously pre-treat COD and high salt concentrations in landfill 333
leachate Ewusi-Mensah, D.

Promoting Changes in Cropping Pattern and Crop Diversification for Sustainable Agricultural Growth in West Bengal, 333
India Pani, A., and Mishra, P.

Mapping the politics of Urban Night Landscape: Spatialization of women and their mobility in Delhi 334
Agarwal, A.

Human-Environment Relationships in Modern and Postmodern Geography 334

Kabir, A.

Fostering Human Centered Design (HCD) approach for technology development and commercialization for bottom of the 335
pyramid (BOP) clients Deepak, K., and Conor, R.F.

Household Cooking Fuel Use in Rural Sikkim: Its Determinants, Issues and Challenges 335
Subba, D.

New Silk Road: Ukraine 336

Pavlik, D.A.

Energy Poverty Among Rural Households in Nigeria: What Can Be Done? 336
Nduka, E., Grosskopf, B., and Chakravarty, S.

Fundamentals Physics Governing Heat Transfer in Improve Biomass Stove 337

Siwe, E.N., and Njomo, D.

A Review on Environmental Selenium Issues 337

Gebreeyessus, G.D., and Zewge, F.

A Note on the Area of Paddy Field in Jakarta, Indonesia 337

Anggrahita, H., Guswandi, Purwanto, S.A., and Susilowati, M.

Implications of demographic transition for productive absorption of labour force: The case of Bangladesh 338
Rahman, M.Z., and Titumir, R.A.M.

Harmonizing the Water- Energy- Food Nexus in Haryana: An Exploration of Technology and Policy Options 338
Tyagi, N.K., and Joshi, P.K.

The Existence of Modified Environmental Curve for Gender Inequality in MENA Economies: Panel data model 339
Sileem, H.H.M.

The Question of the “Death” of Small Farmers in Jakarta, Indonesia 339

Anggrahita, H., Purwanto, S.A., Guswandi, and Susilowati, M.

Psychological Assessment of the Influence of Contact with Mountain Landscape Environment on Directed Attention and 339
Stress Ojobo, H., Shammang, K.J., Kagai1, K.J., and Kange, L.O.

The Impact of Human Activities and Climate Changes on the Vulnerability and Sustainability of Water Resources in the 340
Eastern Part of Romania Minea, I.

Mapping of West Siberian arctic wetland complexes using Landsat imagery: Implications for methane emissions 340
Terentieva, I.E., Sabrekov, A.F., Glagolev, M.V., and Maksyutov, S.

Creating a Sustainable Green Planet (SGP) by Generating Solar Bio-Energy from Wastewater and Waste? 341
Manglani, J.

Study of the spatial and landscape structure of the sands and gravels exploitation region in the context of adaptation to 341
climate change Pawełczyk, K.

The Challenges of Rearing Insects for Food within the UK 341

Suckling, J., and Druckman, A.

Rainfall Variability Study in Auchi, Edo State, Nigeria 342

Ukhurebor, K.E.

Analytical Study of the Relationship between Man and the Environment with Ethical and Philosophical Approach 342
Vatandoost, M.

Social impacts that the degradation of salt lakes has on local communities 342
Zenko, M.

Determination of 238U, 232Th and 40K in Selected Borehole Rock Samples in Abuja, Nigeria, using Neutron Activation 343
Analysis and its Radiological Risk on Drillers Omeje, M., et al.

The Social Institution and Site of ‘Balti Lchangra’ 343

Zakir, Z.H.

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Importance of Vegetable Farming in Improving Economic and Nutritional Status of Farmers in the region of Smallholding 343
agriculture; an Evidence from Malda District of West Bengal, India Ali, M.R.

Do firms innovate when they can relocate? Evidence from the steel industry 344
Valacchi, G.

Participation Cost and Value: Between Equity and Efficiency in Multilevel Governance (Case Study: Indonesian National 344
Empowerment Program Policy Document Analysis) Anggraeni, M.

GIS: A tool for monitoring air pollution and implementing mitigation measures for sensitive areas in Kuwait 345
Al-Mutairi, N.

Evaluating the Indoor Air Quality in Healthcare Facilities: A case study at the Dental Clinic of Eskisehir Osmangazi 345
University Alptekin, O., and Güçyeter, B.

Impact of Tactile Maps on the Geo-Spatial Abilities of the Visually Impaired Persons in Nigeria 346
Irabor, M.O.

Low Carbon Development Efficiencies of OECD Countries 346

Alptekin, N.

Nonlinear area-to-point regression kriging for spatial-temporal mapping of malaria risk 346
Truong, P.N.

Environmental Governance and Pro-environmental Behaviour Change in Vietnam’s Marine Protected Area 347
Pham, N.

Degradation of a textile dye by photocatalysis, electro-oxidation and their coupling 347

Saaidia, S., Barbari, K., Allat, L., Djemel, A., Benredjem, Z., and Delimi, R.

Urban Agriculture in Jakarta (Indonesia): Some ethnographic and spatial analysis perspectives 347
Purwanto, S.A., Anggrahita, H., Susilowati, M., and Guswandi

A Buddhist Perspective on Global Warming-Our Irresistible Fate? 348

Sraman, S.

Regional Variations in Manufacturing Productivity in India 348

Maiti, A.

Culture and Knowledge of Environmental Sustainability 348

Babazadeh, V.

GPS Application on Agriculture Towards Zero Hunger for Sustainable Development in Africa 349
Okosun, O.S.

The Effect of Mt. Agung Volcanic Aerosol to Global Warming Based on Analysis of Temperature and e-Folding Time 349
Diana, S., Aprilia, J., and Widyariestha, M.

Mobility delayed is mobility denied: Women’s life opportunities at stake due to poor Urban Transport 349
Iqbal, S.

Removal of heavy metals by continuous electropermutation 350

Mehellou, A., Delimi, R., Benredjem, Z., Samia, S., and Innocent, C.

Chapter 6. Poster Papers
Urban ventilation and mortality in Hong Kong 352
Goggins, W., Wang, P., Ren, C., Lau, K., and Chan, E.

Sustainable practices and the use of personal protective equipment on rural properties producing tobacco Pires. V., 352
Nassinhack, V., Fantinel, R., Lhamby, A., and Moraes, B.

Visual configurations of flower compositions in urban environment 353

Petrova, V.T., and Shahanova, M.B.

How women of fertile age understand the notion of “family” Case study: Bucharest, Romania Preda, M., Mareci, A., 355
Tudoricu, A., Taloş, A-M., Elena, B., Vijulie, I., and Lequeux, A-I.D.

Analysis of the disposal of packaging of agrochemicals in the municipality of São Gabriel/RS according to CONAMA 356
Resolution 465/2014 Pires, V., Sucky, A., Borba, L., Lhamby, A., and Moraes, B.

Competitiveness through renewable energies in the rice industrialization process 356

Silva, M., Borges, D., Souza, A., Pires, V., and Lhambi, A.

Discussion of the practices of environmental management in the rice sector in a socio-environmental perspective 357
Borges, D., Silva, M., Souza, A., Pires, V., and Lhambi, A.

Impact of an abandoned Coal Mine on groundwater chemical features (S. Pedro da Cova, N Portugal) 358
Mansilha, C., Melo, A., Ribeiro, J., Flores. D., Queirós, M., and Marques, J.E.

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Pastoralists’ perception of and adaptation strategies for climate change: Associations with observed climate variability 359
Zhang, Q.

Analysing deprivation and its consequences on population health in special regions: Case study on the Biosphere Reserve of 360
the Danube Delta Mareci, A., Taloş, A-M., Preda, M., and Vijulie, I.

Evaluating the effect of mixed couples on residential segregation of foreign groups in Italy: First evidences from a regional 361
study case Benassi, F.,and Naccarato, A.

Determinants of employment in the Northern Cape? 362

Kleinsmith, D., Guqa, A., and Motoma, P.

Possibilities for Artificial Breeding of the Parnassius apollo L. (Apollo Butterfly) on Sedum maximum (L.) Suter and Sedum 363
album L. in a Park Environment Namliev, V., Marinov, Y., and Kabatliyska, Z.

Chapter 7. International Journal of Human Geography and Environmental Studies, SI 2 365
Synchronizing Agriculture Trading Regulation and Program in Indonesia – Case Study: Agriculture Trading 368
Regulation of Subang Regency Purwanegara, M.S., Kusumawati, N., Ekawati, R.H., and Hudrasyah, H.

Leap-Frogging to Renewable Energy Regime in West Africa: Arguing for a Community-led Initiative 381
Khaleel, A.G., and Chakrabarti, M.

Global Voice for Survival: An Ecosystemic Approach for the Environment and the Quality of Life 396
Pilon, A.F.

How efficient is urban land speculation? 408

Gemeda, B.S.

Dilemmas for Zanzibar: Energy, Economy and Environment 419

Juma, S.A.

Development of a multiple risks measurement framework for urban resilience 430

Ebisudani, M., dos Muchangos, L.S., and Cortes, A.C.

A GIS based Fire Station Site Selection using Network Analysis and Set Covering Location Problem (Case study: 433
Tehran, Iran) Davoodi, M., and Mesgari, M.S.

Prospects and Problems of Pirate Public Inter-City Transport Services in Lokoja, Kogi State 437
Adetunji, M.A.

Sustainable development 442

Rezaei, N.

Modern practices of human body design: Pilot study – regional aspect 448
Merenkov, A., Antonova, N., and Purgina, E.

Sustainable land reforms as a comprehensive migration management agenda: A perspective of social 455
inclusion in postcolonial Africa Mwangi, S.M.

Chapter 8. International Journal of Sustainability Science and Studies, SI 2 459
Polluting Emissions and GDP: Decoupling Evidence from Brazilian States 462
Jalles, J.T.

Sustainability and Sectoral Stability in Africa’s Natural Resources Utilization 476

Khaleel, A.G., and Chakrabarti, M.

Estimation of production and rate of consumerism for electronic wastes of Arak City for prospecting purposes 488
and policies for these wastes Aghmashhadi, A.H., and Zahedi, S.

Treatment of Uranium and Heavy Metals on Soil and in Groundwater 495

Choi, J.

Social Networks of Student-Migrants: Case of Chinese Students at the Ural Federal University, Russia 499
Antonova, N., and Purgina, E.

Time series dynamics of precipitation patterns in four major urban cities in sub-Saharan Africa: Persistence, seasonality 504
and long memory Awe, O.O., and Gil-Alana, L.A.

Creation of maps of extreme weather events under the conditions of climate change 509
Romanov, S.L., Chernoukha, B.N., and Agaronova S.I.

Analysis of degradation kinetics of Naphthalene and Acenaphthene on industrial sludge of lubricant refinery 512
by anaerobic degradation Sabetifard, S.H., Kazemi Moayed, H., and Daneshfar, M.A.

Weather Risk and Off-Farm Labor Supply of Smallholder Farm Households in Developing Countries 517
Gansonré, S.

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Legislation, Resources and Rights: A Case Study of Forest Rights in India 530
Patel, T., Sharma, A.R., and Tripathi, A.

Analysis of Sound Absorption Coefficient (Case Study: Gypsum panel, gypsum-arenga pinnata fibre, arenga 539
pinnata fibre-gypsum and foamed concrete- arenga pinnata fibre) Fuady, Z., Ismail, Fauzi, and Zulfian

Applying United Nations Sustainable Development Goals at the Foreign Languages Centre of the University 551
of Gdansk Swebocka, A.

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Chapter 1.

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How to reduce low-emission in a small town? Research for the use of

local renewable energy sources
Szulc, A.,* and Tomaszewska, B.
AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Geology, Geophysics and Environmental Protection, Krakow, Poland;
Abstract—Most of small cities in the world face the problem of poor air quality and exceeding the limit values of pollutant
concentrations in the air – especially in the winter period. Fundamentally, in Poland the basis of the problem refers to the
pollutant emission from households. It arises due to the combustion of poor quality solid fuels in outdated and inefficient
heating systems. Besides, this phenomenon is compounded by bad urban space planning, land surface topography, road
transport and in extreme cases waste combustions. The negative externalities generated by low-emission such as: decline
quality of life, increase in the number of morbidities, destruction of natural environment and infrastructure and economic
consequences directly affect local communities. Therefore, an important issue is to develop and introduce the most suitable
strategies, adapted to the needs and possibilities of local government. The primary objective of the article is to present the
functional scheme of solutions based on local renewable energy sources which contribute to reduction of pollutant emission
and improvement of the air quality in the area of small towns. The analysis has focused on science-driven research oriented
on the recognition and indication of the potential of three different types of renewable energy sources: wind energy, solar
energy, low-temperature geothermal energy. It should be noted that the fast-progressing urbanization process requires
appropriate management of local resources and creating new opportunities for regional sustainability.
Keywords—air quality, local renewable energy sources, low-emission, small town


I N the recent years, the issue of air pollution has become the key element of the discussion both in terms of environmental
and social aspects, let alone the economic ones. Air pollution has significant effects on ecosystems, fauna, plants, forests,
the quality of water and soil etc. Many papers present results regarding the negative impact of air pollution on human
health (Pope et al., 2015; Mishra, 2017; Logan, 1953; Landrigan, 2017; WHO, 2006,2013; Brook et al., 2010) The existing
studies indicate that pollutants, especially particular matter (PM), increase the risk of cardiovascular diseases, as well as stroke,
respiratory diseases and cancer. The World Health Statistics form 2018, presented by the World Health Organization (WHO),
show that more than 90% of the world’s population in 2016 exposed to poor air quality do not meet the WHO standards.
Moreover, the outdoor air pollution caused approximately 4.2 million deaths all over the world in 2016 (WHO, 2018). It is
estimated that the economic costs of the impact of air pollution on health in 2010 were: 1.5 trillion USD in WHO European
Region and 102 thousand USD in Poland (WHO Regional Office for Europe and OECD, 2015).
Poland has been struggling with the problem of exceedance the limit values of air pollution such as particulate matter
(PM10, PM2.5) and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) for several years. The recent data presented by WHO confirmed poor air quality in
Poland as 36 out of 50 most polluted European cities are Polish ones. The remaining cities are located in Bulgaria (Vidin and
Dimitrovgrad – the two most polluted cities in Europe), Czech Republic and Italy. However, due to the regulations
implemented by the European Union, the industry and conventional energy sector significantly reduced the amount of
pollutants emitted to the air in recent years (European Parliament and Council, 2010). Currently, the main causes of poor air
quality are outdated and inefficient heating installations based on solid fuels, commonly used in households. The problem of
poor air quality is observed both in urban and rural areas. Therefore, the use of renewable energy sources is one of the solutions
aiming to improve air quality in Poland.


A. Descriptions of the health resort municipality
Rabka-Zdrój is a small town located in 49°37'N latitudes and 19°58'E longitudes, situated in Southern part of Poland. A
characteristic feature of the area is its location in the Rabczańska Valley, surrounded on three sides by mountain ranges (Gorce,
Beskid Wyspowy) with the heights of 600-1000 m a.s.l. The total area of the town covers 37 km2, while the total area of the
urban-rural municipality is 69 km2. In 1967 the town was granted the status of a health resort. In accordance with the applicable
law (Marshal of the Polish Parliament, 2017), municipality which has been granted such a status shall meet the following
− possess the deposits of natural healing materials with confirmed medicinal properties,
− have a climate with proven healing properties,
− in its area should be establishments and facilities for health-resort treatment,
− meet the environmental requirements set out in the environmental protection regulations,
− have technical infrastructure in the field of water and sewage management, energy, road transport, and also conduct
waste management.
In addition, the municipality which has received the status of health resort is required to prepare the Health Resort Report, the
purpose of which is to confirm the requirements set for health resorts. This document should be prepared at least once every
10 years and presented to the Minister of Health. In health resort towns, in order to ensure the protection of natural healing
raw materials and the healing properties of climate, health resort protection zones are demarcated. According to the health

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resort statute of Rabka-Zdrój, three aforementioned zones have been demarcated (Marshal of the Polish Parliament, 2017; City
Council of Rabka-Zdrój, 2013):
1) zone “A” (share of green areas ≤ 65%) – with the area of 168.1 ha, which is part of the town area. Within the zone,
the activity of health resort facilities is run, with the use of devices intended for health resort treatment. In addition,
it is forbidden to locate, among others, industrial plants, single-family and multi-family residential buildings,
motorways and expressways, solid and liquid waste landfills, agricultural activities and others.
2) zone “B” (share of green areas ≤ 50%) – the area of 718.6 ha, part of the town area, which includes the areas adjacent
to zone A. In the zone it is prohibited to include surface parking lots with parking spaces above 50, construct petrol
stations closer than 500m from the A zone boundary, commercial facilities with a usable area of more than 400m2,
felling of forest and park trees, etc.
3) zone “C” (share of green areas ≤ 45%) – with the area of 2,779.3 ha, it covers areas adjacent to zone B and its external
boundary is the administrative boundary of the town. No industrial facilities may be established within the zone,
mineral resources other than natural medicinal raw materials are not allowed to be obtained, and activities adversely
affecting the healing properties of the climate and physiography of the health resort are prohibited.
B. Climatic conditions
According to the Health Resort Report developed in 2009, Rabka-Zdrój has a climate with proven healing properties
(Walkowiak et al., 2009). The town meets the standards set by the Regulation of the Minister of Health (2006) for climate
parameters with therapeutic properties. The total number of hours with the sun during the year is 1645h. The limit values for
the number of days with precipitation and fog are not exceeded and amount to respectively: 179 days, 37 days (period Oct-
Mar) and 29 days (period Apr-Sep) (Table 1). In addition, the regulation indicates climate features that may adversely affect
the human body and should rarely occur in health resort areas. These features include long periods of cloudy weather, too little
or too high relative humidity of the air, poor ventilation of the area, frequent occurrence of: high and low temperatures, days
with high wind speed, storms etc.

Criterion Values determined by the Minister of Health Values for Rabka-Zdrój
Number of hours with the sun during the year ≥ 1500 hours 1645 hours
Number of days with precipitation (≥0,1 mm) ≤ 183 days 179 days
Number of days with fog:
1) Period: October-March ≤ 50 days 37 days
2) Period: April-September ≤ 15 days 29 days

The average annual air temperature varies between 6-8°C. The average precipitation during the year reaches the level between
630-1100 mm (Matuszko and Matuszko, 2014). The occurrence of a natural mountain barrier protects the health resort against
strong winds. It increases, however, the occurrence of atmospheric silence and negatively affects the ventilation of the town.
The average annual wind speed is 1.5 m/s. It should be emphasized that the local climatic conditions of the health resort are
affected by the variation in altitude and terrain.
C. Air quality
One of the most important factors conditioning the healing properties of the climate is the sanitary state of the air. Defining
the phenomenon of low emission is the basis for further considerations. Low emission means emission of pollutants coming
from emitters not exceeding 40 m in height. The main reason for the low emission is the combustion of poor quality solid fuels
in inefficient heating devices (Graboś et al., 2014; Dzikuć, 2017; Kaczmarczyk, 2015,2017). Low emission of pollutants from
coal combustion is characteristic for the municipal-living sector.
The inventory of pollutant emissions run under the Air Quality Plan in the Małopolska Region showed that the main type
of heating systems used in the urban area of Rabka-Zdrój is gas heating (46.8%) and solid fuel heating (45.8%) (Figure 1)
(Lochno et al., 2017). However, the municipality rural area does not possess a gas network, therefore a much larger share of
solid fuel boilers is assumed. In addition, the data presented in the Low-Emission Economy Plan indicate the problem of
pollutant emissions beyond the heating season. This is due to the structure of hot water preparation. In most cases, it is a system
associated with a central heating installation (43%) (Figure 2). Renewable energy sources (solar collectors) for the preparation
of domestic hot water are used only in 4% (Godziek and Sokulska, 2017).
In Poland, monitoring of air quality is conducted as part of the State Environmental Monitoring. The entity responsible
for running measurements and assessing the state of air quality is the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection (CIEP)
together with its voivodeship delegations, Regional Inspectorates for Environmental Protection (RIEP). In 2017, a state air
monitoring station (manual station) was installed in the town of Rabka-Zdrój. The content of PM10 and benzo(a)pyrene (BaP)
in the air was determined using the gravimetric (reference) method described in Directive of the European Parliament and of
the Council of 21 May 2008 on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe (2008) and dedicated standards: Ambient air –
Standard gravimetric measuring method for determination of PM10 or PM2.5 mass concentrations of particulate matter (Polish
Standardization Committee, 2014) and Air quality – Standard method for determining the concentration of benzo(a)pyrene in
ambient air (Polish Standardization Committee, 2011). According to the data presented in Figure 3, the health resort has a
problem with exceeding the daily limit value of PM10 (50 μg/m3) in the period from October to March. During the year, 66
days exceeding the daily limit value for PM10 were recorded, with 35 days allowed by the EU. The highest daily concentration
of BaP in the health resort was about 35 ng/m3 (Figure 4). The limit value of BaP in the air during the year was exceeded eight

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solid fuel heating 7.2% combined with central heating system

oil heating 45.8% renewable energy
coal 22%
gas heating
electric 43%
electric heating



16% 4%
Figure 1. Types of heating systems in Rabka-Zdrój (Lochno et al., 2017). Figure 2. Types of energy sources used for preparing domestic hot water
(Godziek and Sokulska, 2017).

[µg/m3] concentration of PM10 in 2017 EU daily limit value concentration of BaP in 2017 EU annual limit value
200 average annual concentration of BaP
120 25
100 20
80 15
0 0

Figure 3. Daily concentration of PM10 in 2017 (RIEP, 2018). Figure 4. Annual and daily concentration of BaP in 2017 (RIEP, 2018).

In addition to the data presented, the issue of low emission in the area of the health resort was also confirmed by the site
inspection. The occurrence of low emission in the town is particularly felt during the winter. However, the phenomenon can
also be observed in the case of increased tourist traffic during the summer – preparation of large amount of domestic hot water
in central heating installations (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Material from site inspection: a) 20.01.2018 9:50 a.m.; b) 27.01.2018 9:50 a.m.; c) 29.07.2018 9:40 a.m.; d) 28.07.2018 19:30 p.m.

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 4 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.


The assessment of the possibility of using local resources of renewable sources to reduce low emission has been divided
into three basic elements:
A. Investigation of wind energy potential
The activities aimed at defining wind energy resources are run by means of installation of the constant monitoring of wind
speed and direction. The measuring devices were mounted on one of the health resort facilities located in the "A" zone of
health resort protection. Gathering of data related to local conditions of wind energy potential was planned for a 12-month
period. In addition, the archival data from the meteorological station belonging to the Institute of Meteorology and Water
Management – National Research Institute (IMWM-NRI) were obtained. Ground measurement station was located in the urban
area of Rabka-Zdrój in the years 1991-2012. The verification of own measurement data will be conducted in the relation to the
IMWM-NRI station in order to determine the correctness of the obtained results. The frequency of occurrence of individual
wind speeds as well as their hourly and percentage share during the year will be characterized. These parameters pose an
important element in the total assessment of wind energy potential and the possibility of using home wind turbines.
B. Investigation of solar energy potential
The solar energy potential investigation will be conducted by monitoring the values of solar radiation flux density. As
mentioned in point 1) the measuring device was located on one of the health resort facilities located in the "A" zone of health-
resort protection. It is assumed that the monitoring of the indicated parameter will cover at least one year. The installed sensor
records the data of the total solar irradiance on the horizontal plane. IMWM-NRI has not run the measurement of the total solar
irradiance during the operation of the weather station in Rabka-Zdrój. The nearest solar energy monitoring station is situated
in Zakopane located about 43 km away from the research area. However, it is characterized by similar terrain and climatic
conditions. Therefore, these data will be a reference for the obtained measurement results from own observations.
C. Investigation of the potential of shallow geothermal energy
In order to determine the potential of shallow geothermal energy in the Rabka-Zdrój area, geological and geotechnical
data of the rock mass will be analyzed for the assessment of heat conduction parameters. At that stage, data from the Central
Hydrogeological Data Banks and the Central Geological Database were obtained in order to get a detailed diagnosis of the
geological structure of Rabka-Zdrój to a depth of 100m. A detailed recognition of the geological structure is extremely
important in the case of ground heat exchangers, since the thermal conditions of the soil in particular regions of Poland differ.
The possibility of using thermal energy contained in the ground for heating buildings depends on them to a large extent. The
obtained data will show the diversity of the rock mass and determine its potential for the use of renewable energy technologies
for heating purposes.
It was also assumed to obtain hydrogeological data that will be used to assess the possibility of using groundwater in the
Rabka-Zdrój area as a bottom source of heat pumps. In order to conduct a correct analysis, the databases of disposable and
prospective groundwater resources as well as hydrogeological maps for the territory of Poland and the database for
groundwater monitoring will also be used. The collected physicochemical parameters of groundwater will allow for the
analysis of the selection of the ultimate heat pumps using groundwater. The assessment of the quality of groundwater in health
resort areas remains an important issue. Therefore, the sampling of water at selected points for the assessment of
physicochemical properties was foreseen. Due to the location of the town within the mining area for curative waters, it is
necessary to consider the geological and environmental conditions for the installation of heat pumps, preventing their
interference in the stability of the extraction of mineral resources.


A. Wind energy potential
Measurement results are recorded every 30 minutes as the average of parameter readings from this period. In the period
of the registration time unit, the wind direction and current, average, maximum and minimum wind speed data are collected.
For the initial assessment of wind parameters in Rabka-Zdrój, data from December 2017–May 2018 were analyzed (in total
8,736 records). The town area is characterized by low wind speeds with frequent periods of silence (40%). A significant share
of 20.4% has average wind speed from 0.4-0.8 m/s, as well as 0.8-1.2 m/s (13.6%), and 1.2-1.6 (9.8%) (Figure 6). The average
wind speed for the analyzed period is 0.8 m/s. The chart of maximum wind speed shows that in the discussed period the wind
speed reached 0.4-1.6 m/s (about 40% of the recorded measurements) (Figure 7). The frequency of maximum wind speeds
from 1.6 to 4.0 m/s is similar and amounts to an average of 6%. Maximum wind speeds above 6 m/s are rarely recorded and
have a small share in the sample. However, the maximum wind speeds during the measurement period occur only in short
periods of time.
The collected literature regarding the climatic conditions of the health-resort town is confirmed by the measurement data
collected from the measurement station (Lorenc, 2005; Kozłowska-Szczęsna et al., 2002; Kozłowska-Szczęsna, Krawczyk and
Błażejczyk, 2004). The predominant wind direction in the December-May period is south-west (SW) 15% and west (W) 11%.
The terrain conditions affect the wind conditions in the town. Its location in the valley surrounded by hills constitutes a natural
barrier for strong winds and determines the free flow of air masses from the open space of the town.

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 5 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.



Frequency [%] 30





0-0.4 0.4-0.8 0.8-1.2 1.2-1.6 1.6-2.0 2.0-2.4 2.4-2.8 2.8-3.2 3.2-3.6 3.6-4.0
Average wind speed [m/s]
Figure 6. The frequency of occurrence the average wind speeds in December-May period.

Frequency [%]


Maximum wind speed [m/s]

Figure 7. The frequency of occurrence the maximum wind speeds in December-May period.

B. Solar energy potential

The data published by IMWM-NRI, which in the next stage of the research will be compared to own measurements, were
used for initial analysis of the solar potential in Rabka-Zdrój. The presented data come from a meteorological station located
in Zakopane, which continuously records the data of the total solar irradiation on the horizontal plane (, 2018).
The data are provided in the form of hourly averages of solar irradiation. Figure 8 presents the distribution of average hourly
total irradiation values for each month in 2016. The presented data show that the largest amount of irradiation reaching the
earth surface is recorded in the period from April to August. The highest average of hourly solar irradiation value occurs at
1:00 p.m. in June (522 W/m2), while the lowest is achieved in December and January. The analysis of the obtained values
shows that there is a significant potential for devices using solar energy that can be used to produce electricity or to prepare
domestic hot water.
Yearly sum of total irradiation on a horizontal plane for Zakopane read from maps developed by Joint Research Centre −
Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, is about 1,050 kWh /m2 (, 2018). In turn, the sum of the
total irradiation calculated on the basis of the available data was 937.3 kWh /m2. The differences between values may result
from different data ranges. JRC maps are developed on the basis of the long-term data, whereas the value for Zakopane was
calculated for one measuring year.

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 6 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.


4000 December
3000 September
2500 August
1500 May

1000 April
0 January

Figure 8. Distribution of average monthly hour values of total irradiation intensity in 2016.

C. Shallow geothermal energy potential

The thermal parameters of the rock mass are extremely significant in the assessment of the possibility of using systems
supported by heat pumps based on ground heat exchangers. In the case of low-temperature geothermal, the lithosphere layers
are used. It is related to the change in the temperature of the ground, which is affected by: weather conditions depending on
the season (including solar radiation, atmospheric precipitation, snow cover, temperature), type of ground surface coverage,
rock mass parameters (thermal conductivity of the ground, porosity, specific heat) (Tytko, 2014). The variability of the
temperature distribution in the ground is observed to the depth of occurrence of the "thermally neutral zone" (depending on
climatic conditions, approx. 10-15 m), where the ground temperature is close to the average annual air temperature. Below the
"thermally neutral zone" a constant increase in temperature with depth is assumed (Lee and Lam, 2008; Gołaś and Wołoszyn,
The lithology of rocks up to the depth of 100m for the RABKA 19 aperture profile was used for the initial assessment.
The detailed identification of the geological structure allowed to indicate the thermal conductivity coefficient (adopted on the
basis of literature) for particular types of soil. Thermal conductivity values are in the range of 0.4-2.3 W/m·K (Table 2). The
highest thermal conductivity coefficient is characteristic for sandstones, while the lowest for sandy gravels. The average
weighted thermal conductivity coefficient of the ground is 2.0, which corresponds to the unit thermal efficiency of the vertical
ground heat exchanger at the level of 42 W/m (POHPTD, 2013). In addition, the maximum amount of heat taken from the
ground should not exceed 82 kWh/(m·year). Further analyses regarding the assessment of low temperature geothermal
potential will be the subject of subsequent publications.

Thermal Conductivity [W/m·K]
No. Bottom [m] Thickness [m] Lithology Stratigraphy
Range Recommended

1 0.0 6.7 6.7

Sandy gravel Quaternary 0.4-0.9 0.4
2 6.7 9.0 2.3

3 9.0 18.8 9.8 Sandstone 1.3-5.1 2.3

4 18.8 25.0 6.2 Marl 1.5-3.5 2.1

5 25.0 29.0 4.0 Slates 1.5-2.6 2.1

6 29.0 43.0 14.0 Marl Tertiary(Eocene) 1.5-3.5 2.1

7 43.0 59.0 16.0 Sandstone 1.3-5.1 2.3

8 59.0 62.5 3.5 Slates 1.5-2.6 2.1

9 62.5 87.0 24.5 Marl 1.5-3.5 2.1

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 7 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

10 87.0 100.0 13.0 Slates 1.5-2.6 2.1

Weighted average 2.0

Source: POHPTD, 2013; Corry and Jones, 2011;, 2018

In order to assess the potential of underground water, 17 wells located in the area of the city of Rabka-Zdrój were analyzed
as the bottom source for heat pumps (Figure 9). Samples were taken from dug wells and drilled wells, which are constantly
exploited. Water pH values, conductivity and outlet water temperature were measured during field water sampling. The
obtained values were considered stable in the case when, for three consecutive results, the parameter values did not differ more
than: 0.1 unit for pH, 5% for conductivity, 0.2ºC for water temperature. Water samples from the wells were collected in
accordance with the guidelines described in the PN-ISO 5667-11: 2004 Standard (Polish Standardization Committee, 2017).
The samples were delivered to the laboratory within 24 hours. The physicochemical analysis of water takes place in the
accredited Hydrogeochemical Laboratory of the Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology Department of the AGH University
of Science and Technology in Krakow (PCA accreditation certificate No. AB 1050).

Figure 9. Location of groundwater samples in the town of Rabka-Zdrój.

For the proper functioning of the system with a water-water heat pump, the parameters, such as water temperature,
conductivity, pH, measured in the field during sampling, are very important. The conductivity values in the analyzed points
are in the range of 200-850 μS/cm. The highest value was recorded at point RABKA 3, and the lowest at RABKA 15,
amounting to respectively: 834 μS/cm and 213 μS/cm (Table 3). It is worth noting, that high conductivity values may indicate
water pollution, and in the case of heat pumps increase the corrosion rate of most metals (Dimplex, 2012). According to the
Regulation of the Minister of Health of 13 November 2015, this parameter should be taken into account when assessing the
corrosive properties of water and its value should not exceed 2,500 μS/cm (Minister of Health, 2017). The analyzed waters are
characterized by weakly acidic and slightly alkaline reaction (pH 6.0-8.0), only the RABKA 3 sample has neutral reaction
(pH=7) (Barczyk et al., 2006). The pH reaction affects the degree of copper corrosion. Manufacturers of heat pumps in their
devices most often use two types of plate heat exchanger: copper or stainless steel. Therefore, water pH recommended by
manufacturers should be in the range of 7.0-9.0 (Dimplex, 2012; AlphainnoTec, 2009; Steibel Electron, 2018). The
temperature of water used as the bottom source for heat pumps should be at least 4°C (Dimplex, 2006; Nibe-Biawar, 2017).
Outlet water temperatures, measured during sampling (October 2018), vary between 9.5-19.7°C, however, they change during
the year.

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 8 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Sampling point pH Conductivity [µS/cm] T [°C]
RABKA 1 7.22 790 11.7
RABKA 2 7.29 457 16.2
RABKA 3 7.00 834 14.4
RABKA 4 7.29 497 14.6
RABKA 5 7.34 431 10.3
RABKA 6 6.98 424 9.5
RABKA 7 6.16 220 14.6
RABKA 8 7.87 326 15.9
RABKA 9 7.31 516 15.5
RABKA 10 7.19 719 19.7
RABKA 11 7.05 660 13.4
RABKA 12 7.28 614 15.3
RABKA 13 7.25 455 14.6
RABKA 14 7.53 377 14.2
RABKA 15 6.51 213 13.4
RABKA 16 7.83 332 13.4
RABKA 17 7.13 469 11.4

The problem of low emission affects many small cities around the world. Polish cities year to year are on the list of the
most polluted ones in Europe. The negative effects of low emission are increasingly felt by society. Therefore, it is necessary
to introduce a number of solutions adjusted to the needs of cities, which aim at improving air quality. The authors decided to
propose solutions based on local resources of renewable energy sources. The research area is a health resort municipality,
located in the southern Poland. The analysis showed that the town is struggling with the problem of air pollution, especially
during the winter. The permissible annual concentration of BaP has been exceeded eightfold. The permissible daily PM10 dust
concentration is exceeded from October to March, with an intensification falling in January and February being the peak of
heating season. The research activity was focused on the recognition and determination of the potential of solar and wind
energy, as well as shallow geothermal energy. From the collected wind energy parameters, it appears that in the health resort
area weak winds below 2 m/s prevail (90% share in the sample). The average wind speed obtained for the semi-annual
observation period was 0.8 m/s, and the dominant wind direction is southwest. The Rabka-Zdrój area is characterized by good
solar conditions. The sum of the total solar irradiation intensity was 937.3 kwh /m2 in 2016. The initial physicochemical
analysis of groundwater did not exclude the possibility of using systems supported by the water-water heat pumps in Rabka-
Zdrój. The pH of the tested waters varies between 6.0-8.0, and thus meets the criteria of the majority of heat pump
manufacturers. The obtained pH and conductivity measurement results do not exceed limits set by the Minister of Health. In
addition, the analysis of the RABKA 19 aperture data has shown that the rock mass in question is characterized by good
thermal conductivity. The average weighted value of the thermal conductivity coefficient was 2.0 W/m·K. The determined
value of the unit thermal efficiency of the vertical ground exchanger is 42 W/m. The higher the thermal efficiency of the
exchanger, the smaller the overall length may be. Thermal conductivity of the rock mass affects the amount of heat that can
be taken from the ground and used for heating purposes. In this case, 82 kWh /(m·year) of unit heat uptake from the ground
should not be exceeded.

The scientific work was financed from budgetary sources for years 2017-2021, as a research project under the “Diamentowy
Grant” programme (grant agreement No. DI2016 003946).

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Tytko R. (2014). Equipments and systems for renewable Energy. 4th ed. Kraków: Wyd. i Drukarnia Towarzystwa Słowaków w Polsce.
Walkowiak K., Grabowska-Szaniec A., Bartłomiejczak W., Krell M., Piecuch N., Śmielecka M., Smakulski J., Jęśko M. (2009). The Health Resort Report
of the Rabka-Zdrój municipality, Part I. Poznań: Eko-Log Sp. Z o.o.
WHO (2013). Review of evidence on health aspects of air pollution – REVIHAAP Project. [pdf] Copenhagen: World Health Organization Regional Office
for Europe. Available at [Accessed 26 Sep.

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WHO (2018). World health statistics 2018: monitoring health for the SDGs, sustainable development
goals. [pdf] Geneva: World Health Organization. Available at
[Accessed 28 Sep. 2018].
WHO Regional Office for Europe, OECD, (2015). Economic cost of the health impact of air pollution in Europe: Clean air, health and wealth. [pdf]
Copenhagen: WHO Regional Office for Europe. Available at
impact-air-pollution-en.pdf [Accessed 29 Sep. 2018].
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Summary of risk assessment. [pdf] Geneva: World
Health Organization. Available at
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Towards an Adaptive Knowledge Sharing in Urban Disaster Risk

Reduction and Management
Mariano, B.J.
Department of Geography, College of Social Sciences and Philosophy, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines;
Abstract—The concept and practice of knowledge management in development have been largely shaped by the emergence and complexity
of modern times. The increasing number and intensity of natural catastrophes as a result of the changing climate renders a new social order
that is highly complex, oftentimes uncertain, and largely ambiguous. This exploratory research on the case of Marikina City, Philippines
aimed to provide evidences on how local governments can use adaptive knowledge sharing to manage complexity inherent in urban disaster
risk reduction and management (DRRM). Using Complexity Theory as a guide, this research examined the interrelated variables of
knowledge sharing channels, knowledge sharing behavior, and social networks of the members of the DRRM Council. The social networks
were mapped out in terms of the four thematic areas of DRRM: disaster prevention and mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery
and rehabilitation. Result of analyses suggest that (1) flexibility is a key component in developing adaptive capacity; (2) network density
reflects robustness and resilience of system; (3) skewed attention given to scientific knowledge undermines the importance of local
knowledge in reducing uncertainties and dealing with complexity; and (4) social networks are important in navigating DRRM organizations
towards the edge of chaos.
Keywords—complexity, disaster management, knowledge sharing, social networks


T HE scourge of disasters which brought unparalleled scale of damages demand new strategies that would effectively
mitigate risks and reduce uncertainties in complex organizational environments. In today’s knowledge-based economies,
knowledge is said to be a key driver to promote sustainable development [1]. From this conjecture, decision-makers and various
development organizations realize the potential of knowledge management (KM) in addressing development problems. There
is a placement of the creation, transfer, and management of knowledge at the core of their activities [2]. KM in the context of
development is viewed as the optimization of identification, sharing, and use of knowledge among local communities and
development workers [3].
One of the core processes in KM is knowledge sharing, which covers social interaction and communication that leads to
learning. Knowledge sharing is defined as a process of mutual exchange of knowledge to enable action and new knowledge
[4]. The main goal is either to create new knowledge through combination of existing ones or become better in utilizing existing
ones [5]. Knowledge sharing is a complex process that involves the interaction of several agents within a complex system [6].
Knowledge that emerges in complex environments is due to unpredictable, dynamic, and non-linear interaction of multiple
agents. However, knowledge sharing systems are often designed on the basis of who, what, where, why, and how one will get
certain knowledge in a given context [7]. This mechanistic view is being challenged by a more decentralized and adaptive one
in the context of increasingly complex organizational environments [7].
The 21st century, sometimes dubbed as the ‘age of complexity,’ poses a big challenge to many institutions on thinking of
new ways of understanding the complex, interrelated, and ever-changing world. Adapting to the complexity of the environment
brought by natural disasters is undoubtedly one of the biggest challenges in the development sector. Disaster Risk Reduction
and Management (DRRM) involves cross-scale and multilevel coordination of various agents from different governing bodies
(i.e. local and national government, local and international non-government agencies, civil society groups, private sector, and
grassroots communities). It needs to have a holistic approach and include stakeholders at all levels to effectively mitigate risks
and enable resiliency to perturbations brought by disasters. This makes the DRRM environment in urban setting a complex
and knowledge-intensive endeavor.
This exploratory research looks at how an adaptive knowledge sharing can be positioned in an interconnected and complex
DRRM system by analyzing knowledge sharing channels, adaptive knowledge sharing behavior, and social networks within
the identified local government disaster management council in the Philippines. Specifically, the study sought to achieve the
following objectives: (1) describe how Marikina City DRRM Council (MCDRRMC) agents share knowledge in terms of the
knowledge sharing channels they use and knowledge sharing behavior; (2) Map out the social networks of MCDRRMC in
terms of network size and density, inclusiveness, tie strength, and centrality measures; (3) determine statistical relationships
among MCDRRMC’s socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge sharing channels, knowledge sharing behavior, and
identified social networks based on four thematic areas of DRRM.
A. Knowledge Sharing and Complexity
Several scholars similarly argue that there are four generations of KM [8]. The first generation of KM is referred to as the
rationalist approach wherein the purpose is knowledge transfer and is primarily ICT-driven [8]. It views knowledge as
something that can be transferred in a linear fashion which often neglects the local context to development. The second
generation is focused on organizational learning and how knowledge can be used to increase efficiency and effectiveness of
development processes. Meanwhile, the third generation gives importance to knowledge sharing across organizational
boundaries through communities of practice. Lastly, the fourth generation is referred to as the post-rationalist approach which
is geared towards the flow and emergence of knowledge from social construction of individual practices in relation to its
context [8], [9]. This is a situated learning wherein the emergence and construction of knowledge in local context-specific

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practices, embedded within particular environment [8].

The practice-based approach takes into account the specific context in which local knowledge is developed as well as the
multiple knowledge among agents [9]. From the four generations, a fifth generation of KM for development has been proposed
[10]. It is identified as “the ‘development knowledge system’ or ‘development knowledge ecology’ which emphasizes the
linkages between the different elements of the system” [10]. One of the basic features of this generation is the recognition of
complexity and emergence.
Complex systems are called ‘complex’ because of the nonlinear interactions among agents within the system. Although
scholars have not agreed on a universal definition for a complex system, there are several basic features of a complex system
that they have similarly described. Complex systems are also made up of agents that are said to be inherently adaptive [11].
These adaptive agents interact with each other that engender co-evolution which contributes in shaping the whole complex
adaptive system [12], [13], [14]. Moreover, complex systems emerge from the interactions of its agents. There are unexpected
behaviors that arise from the basic rules that govern their interactions [11].
Development problems are usually positioned at the edge of chaos [15]. The edge of chaos in a complex system is the
region where top-down approach may not work and too lose structure can be counterproductive to the organization. It is thus
a special kind of balance in which members of the organization can collaborate, adapt, and innovate in trying to address real-
world problems. Reference [15] suggests that complexity theory can provide new ways of improving the aid system, in which
disaster management belongs to, in the development sector.
In complex systems, emergence occurs in the edge of chaos where several agents interact, self-organize, and create new
kinds of order [16]. Emergence points out how the overall properties of a complex system evolve from interconnectedness and
interaction of the system with its environment, and that the local context in which agents are interacting is highly important
[11], [20]. Because of this, top-down and over-controlling approaches can be counterproductive in complex systems.
Moreover, there should be minimum rules to allow space for innovation and maximize the system’s adaptive capability [11].
The concepts of interconnectedness and nature of interaction or knowledge sharing, which includes the locality and multiplicity
of knowledge, are integral in the study of emergence in complex systems.
Reference [17] stated that natural disasters have interactions with human structures and processes in highly complex and
unpredictable manner. Management of disaster risk is inherently complex and dynamic. It entangles adaptive knowledge
sharing for effective decision-making and coordination among multiple agents and organizations across various levels and
locations. Likewise, looking at complexity theory through the concept of feedback can give a new perspective in viewing
disasters. While disasters destabilize the natural order of human systems [18] as well as social and ecological systems [19], it
also gives space for the emergence of new order. This emergence opens up an opportunity for organizations to realize its
maximum adaptive capacity in such complex environment, and transform itself into a more desired state [19]. This makes the
whole system different from the sum of its parts.

A. Study Site
This research took the case of Marikina City, one of the high-risk municipalities in Metro Manila when it comes to
flooding, earthquake, and landslides. In 2009, Typhoon Ketsana (locally named Ondoy) ravaged 14 out of 16 barangays in
Marikina City. The highest flood level (22.6 meters) in the city was recorded during the onslaught of this typhoon. With this,
80 per cent of the residents were affected and 3,059 families were evacuated. The Marikina City Government estimated that
some 55,926 houses were damaged, 1,652 businesses were affected and most of the government-owned equipment and
vehicles as well as the city hall were damaged, leaving the city government operations momentarily paralyzed, based on data
from Marikina City DRRM Office retrieved last 11 November 2014. Apparently, this shows that although Marikina City has
institutionalized DRRM measures, its competence needs to be further improved so as to respond effectively to extreme
weather-related hazards.
The onslaught brought by Typhoon Ketsana served as tipping point to the City Government of Marikina to gear up more
plans and actions towards resiliency. After the Philippine DRRM Act was enacted in 2010, Marikina City has established its
DRRM Office and the DRRM Council was reactivated in 2011. In 2013, the City has developed its Local DRRM Plan (2013-
2019) and Contingency Plan detailing all the plans and actions needed to make Marikina City more resilient to disasters. It is
now a continuing priority program of the City.
B. Research Design
The case study research design was informed by perspectives from complexity theory which offers knowledge about
dynamics of interactions that “create strong systems, support healthy adaptation and the ongoing evolution of a system over
time” [21].
Twenty-three (23) members of the MDRRMC were able to participate in the study through standardized interview survey
and key informant interviews. The questionnaire includes aspects of (1) socio-demographic characteristics, (2) views on
effectiveness of various knowledge sharing channels, (3) understanding of adaptive knowledge sharing behavior based on
complexity concepts, and (2) component on social network analysis.
1) Analysis of relationship among socio-demographic characteristic, knowledge sharing channels, and adaptive
knowledge sharing behavior
Frequency counts and percentages were used to describe socio-demographic characteristics, knowledge sharing channels,

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and adaptive knowledge sharing behavior. Meanwhile, Fisher’s Exact test on association was used to calculate if there are
significant relationships among the said variables. The conclusion based on Fisher’s Exact test result was based on the
significance level of 0.05.
2) Social network analysis on DRRM thematic areas
The City Government of Marikina operates on the four thematic areas of DRRM which include the following: (1) disaster
prevention and hazard mitigation, (2) disaster preparedness, (3) disaster response, and (4) recovery and rehabilitation. Based
on these thematic areas, the social networks of MCDRRMC agents were identified. Each participant was asked on “whom do
you go to when there is a need to discuss about (thematic area)?” A list of MCDRRMC agents was presented as a reference
for an easy recall. After identifying several agents on their social network in a particular thematic area, the participants were
then asked on the number of months/years they know that particular agent/office as well as their frequency of interaction.
SNA was conducted to map out the social networks of research participants. A social network can be defined as “a set of
relations that apply to a set of actors, as well as any additional information on those actors and relations” [22]. SNA gives
emphasis on the patterns of interpersonal and social relationships among actors within the network. The actors can be
individuals, groups, organizations, or institutions. SNA is a long-standing research interest. It is not just an analytical technique,
but a paradigm which carries its own theoretical underpinnings, methodologies, and tools [22].
Various SNA metrics are being analyzed to unravel dynamics among agents within the network. In this study, the metrics
that were analyzed include network size and density, inclusiveness, tie strength, and centrality measures. A computer software
called UCINET (version 6.532) was used to analyze data on the said key indicators. The sociogram or visualization of the
social networks on four thematic areas of DRRM was generated using NetDraw application in UCINET. Key informant
interviews were also conducted with selected participants to validate the results.
To test if there is a significant relationship between the identified knowledge sharing networks, Quadratic Assignment
Procedure (QAP) correlation was used. In QAP correlation, UCINET first computes Pearson’s r to correlate the knowledge
sharing networks and assess if there is a significant relationship. Afterwards, UCINET conducts permutation test on matrices
between networks and the Pearson’s r was then recalculated. This process happened 5,000 times in UCINET [22]. The
computed p-value wherein one less than 5 per cent (p<.05) means that there is a significant relationship between the networks.


A. Sociodemographic characteristics
The participants are made up of MCDRRMC agents whose ages are ranging from 24 to 61 years old. Eight out of 23
participants are 46 to 53 years old (34.78%). There are also eight out of 23 who are 54 to 61 years old (34.78%). MCDRRMC
is a male-dominated organization by looking at the ratio of males to females (16:7). Fifteen out of 23 participants are married
(65.22%). Meanwhile, 12 are single (26.09%) and two are widowed (8.70%). Half of the participants are relatively new in the
MCDRRMC with a year or less of membership (52.17%). Results showed that 12 out of 23 or majority of participants (52.17%)
do not have formal training in DRRM.
B. Knowledge sharing channels
Participants were asked to choose only three out of eight items under knowledge sharing channels that they think are most
effective when sharing knowledge about DRRM within the MCDRRMC. Results revealed that 20 out of 23 participants
(86.96%) chose formal knowledge sharing channels as the most effective while only three out of 23 participants (13.04%)
viewed informal knowledge sharing channels as the most effective.
Formal knowledge sharing channels are viewed as the most effective when sharing knowledge about DRRM within
MCDRRMC. Monthly council meetings dominated other knowledge sharing channels in terms of perceived effectiveness.
Attending monthly council meetings is part of their mandate as agents of MCDRRMC. This platform is where all of the
MCDRRMC agents gather and talk about issues related to DRRM. Moreover, this is the major platform that is being used to
raise questions, provide suggestions, and decide on matters that will strengthen the capacity of Marikina City in addressing
disaster-related problems. Hence, results showed that the choice and usage of formal knowledge sharing channels conform to
the formal structure of MCDRRMC.
Although formal knowledge sharing channels are viewed as the most effective, the importance of informal knowledge
sharing channels should also be taken into account. This is to provide wide-ranging options in sharing knowledge when formal
knowledge sharing channels becomes not applicable. For instance, council meetings happen only once a month. If there are
issues or topics that several agents want to talk about but the monthly council meeting is just yet to happen or just happened,
this is where informal meetings and use of electronic media (e.g. public chats, emails, etc.) can be utilized.
Participants perceived that there is a low potential of using emails and social media in sharing knowledge about DRRM
within MCDRRMC despite its importance in collaboration when face-to-face communication is not feasible. It can be noted
that most of the participants are digital immigrants which might probably the reason why they are reluctant to use web-based
tools. Social media are used to collaborate with people not only with the people you know but also to other people across
geographical boundaries [23]. This is important in linking MCDRRMC agents with other experts and organizations in other
parts of the country and the world.
By setting up and streamlining this kind of strategy, flexibility in the use of various knowledge sharing channels will be
practiced and this will improve the MCDRRMC agents’ adaptive capacity. This will also promote continuous feedback and
thus, enhance learning and build organizational memory.

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C. Adaptive knowledge sharing behavior

MCDRRMC agents scored ‘High’ on adaptive knowledge sharing behavior. Based on the perspectives of knowledge
sharing and complexity theory, results showed that all of the agents of MCDRRMC scored ‘High’ on adaptive knowledge
sharing behavior, as there are no agents that fall into ‘Medium’ and ‘Low’ categories. They have a notion of knowledge sharing
culture, although incentives and rewards are not part of it. They regard knowledge sharing as integral to their work in DRRM.
They also acknowledge the importance of knowledge of Marikina City residents. Likewise, they believe that various offices
or sectors possess different knowledge that are valuable in DRRM. Lastly, MCDRRMC agents can freely share knowledge
because there are no strict rules that govern their interaction. Although the DRRM landscape is complex and continuously
changing, these sound practices allow MCDRRMC agents to learn and adapt to changes.
Based on several key informant interviews from selected MCDRRMC agents, the participants do not get any incentives
(i.e. monetary or in-kind) for sharing knowledge about DRRM within MCDRRMC although incentives or rewards have an
impact on knowledge sharing behavior. Rewards can increase the knowledge sharing behavior and with this, incentives act as
key facilitator of knowledge sharing [24]. Although there are no incentives or rewards, MCDRRMC agents still share
knowledge about DRRM with other MCDRRMC agents because they see it as integral and essential to their work in
MCDRRMC. Moreover, participants who agreed on the said statement (n=6; 20.09%) view knowledge as the actual incentive
that they get from knowledge sharing.
The edge of chaos views that organizations can maximize its adaptive capacity if the organization is not too loose and not
too structured [11]. Moreover, strict rules can impede the innovation within organizations. In the case of MCDRRMC agents,
results showed that generally, they are free to share the kind of knowledge that they want to share related to DRRM. This gives
space for the MCDRRMC to innovate and to capitalize on the knowledge of their members.
D. Social networks analysis
MCDRRMC’s social networks are inclusive but not dense. All of the identified social networks of MCDRRMC agents
based on four thematic areas of DRRM have a network size of 31 and there is 100 per cent inclusiveness in the social networks
of MCDRRMC (Figure 1). This means that there are no isolated agents in all of the identified social networks.
Although in one way or another, each agent can share and gain knowledge from other agents, their network densities just
range from 19.70 per cent to 20.90 per cent. Thus, the networks are not dense. Moreover, there are few connections present in
the network. This further implies that because of having a low network density, the knowledge about DRRM thematic areas
flows slowly from one agent to another within the various networks in MCDRRMC.
If the network becomes too dense, intense knowledge sharing reduces individual variation and can lead to system collapse
[25]. This means that if everyone is connected to one another, the same information can be repeated and this dampens the
capacity of the system to generate new knowledge, and thus, the system fails to innovate.
The density of the networks also reflects its robustness or the vulnerability of the system to collapse [25]. If the central
actors experienced problems or removed from the networks, the networks will be disconnected and may not withstand this
MCDRRMC’s social networks have weak ties. Tie strength was measured by using the concept of reciprocity or the extent
in which ties are bidirectional. Results showed that the range of tie strength from the four knowledge sharing networks is 29.6
per cent to 33.9 per cent. Results were validated by computing Granovetterian strong ties and found that value of weak ties
outnumbered those of strong ties. This implies that the agents in the knowledge sharing networks generally have weak ties.
One of the reasons why MCDRRMC agents have weak ties is because there is only once-a-month formal meeting of the
members of MCDRRMC. Some of the members only have the opportunity to talk about issues in DRRM during this event.
Moreover, MCDRRMC agents have different scope of work and the location of their offices varies. This limits their
opportunity to gather and talk about issues on DRRM.
The identified social networks generally have low frequency of interaction. These interactions happen mostly on monthly
council meetings. Moreover, the ratio of reciprocated ties is also low in the identified social networks. With these, the
MCDRRMC agents have weak ties.
Strong ties are important in knowledge sharing because this kind of tie involves a high level of trust. That is why this kind
of tie is present more on close friends and family members. However, being in the network with strong ties, knowledge can be
repeated and creation of new ones may be hampered. In contrast to this, Reference [26] postulated the concept of ‘strength of
weak ties’ and argued that “those to whom we are weakly tied are more likely to move in circles different from our own and
will thus have access to information different from what we received.” By forming this kind of tie, agents can have a wider
range of knowledge that can be exchanged which is more important in the knowledge construction process.
By having weak ties, the agents in MCDRRMC can capitalize on this opportunity for the emergence of new knowledge
about the four thematic areas in DRRM.
The most central agents in all of MCDRRMC’s social networks include City Mayor’s Office (CMO), City Vice Mayor’s
Office (CVMO), Department of Education Marikina (DEPED), and Marikina City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office
(DRRMO). Centrality was measured using Eigenvector, which refers to the sum of actor’s connections to other agents weighted
by degree centrality. Eigenvector centrality is a refined version of degree centrality [22]. While degree centrality looks only at

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Figure 1. Sociogram of MCDRRMC’s social networks on (1) disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, (2) disaster preparedness, (3) disaster response, (4)
recovery and rehabilitation (The circles represent the agents (green = local government offices and national agencies; yellow = civil society organizations;
and blue = private sectors. The arrow heads pointing to agents mean that these agents were identified by other agent/s as part of their social network.)

the actual number of ties present between agents, eigenvector centrality looks at the immediate adjacent of focal actor to other
agents in the network [22].
The agents identified, City Mayor’s Office (CMO), City Vice Mayor’s Office (CVMO), Department of Education
Marikina (DEPED), and Marikina City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (DRRMO), are considered to be the major
brokers of knowledge within MCDRRMC (Figure 1). The involvement of these agents expands to four thematic areas of
DRRM. Moreover, they serve as the forefront of knowledge sharing activities and they have the potential control over
information. They also have the most crucial roles in the networks. If these agents malfunction, the system may experience
fragmentation [25]. With this, other agents should not just connect to these agents but also to other agents to make the networks
more cohesive, and thus, become more resilient to abrupt changes.
DRRMO serves as the bridge to all other agents in MCDRRMC. Centrality measures revealed that DRRMO serves as the
primary link to the other agents who are not connected. This means that DRRMO mediates all other MCDRRMC in knowledge
sharing about DRRM, especially in the social network on disaster preparedness. This poses an implication on how DRRMO
can connect all other agents in MCDRRMC for more active participation in DRRM initiatives.
MDRRMC agents representing civil society organizations and private sectors are the least central on the identified social
networks. These agents include the following: Civic Action Team Marikina (CAT), Philippine Contractors’ Association
(PCA), City Veterinary Office (CVO), Rotary Club Marikina (RCM), Marikina Valley Medical Society (MVMS), Tzu Chi
Foundation (TZF), Amang Rodriguez Memorial Medical Center (ARMMC) (Figure 1). Only a few agents nominated them as
part of their social networks. Some of the representatives do not regularly attend the monthly council meetings which might
explain why these agents are the least central.
Based on an interview with a representative from DRRMO, civil society organizations and private sectors were not much
involved in the disaster preparedness as well as disaster prevention and mitigation areas of DRRM since their focus is more
on the response and recovery. Although some agents are more focused on specific thematic area, their importance in other
thematic areas must also take into consideration. For instance, although PCA’s role is on recovery and rehabilitation, they can
also be important in disaster prevention and mitigation by collaborating with the CEO, among others, in making stronger
buildings and infrastructures that can withstand earthquakes.
Taking off from the polycentric governance model, complex problems can be addressed if multi-level and cross-scale
collaboration among agents will be nurtured [27]. For DRRM to have holistic approach, cross-scale linkages must be
established. Moreover, the local knowledge that these agents possess will be undermined if they will not be fully involved in
social networks. By acknowledging such, the multiplicity of knowledge will be integrated and this can help MCDRRMC to
effectively cope with uncertainties inherent in complex DRRM environment.
E. Statistical relationships among variables of the study
No association found between socio-demographic characteristics and knowledge sharing channels. Fisher’s Exact test
was used to analyze if there are any associations among variables. This statistical test calculates the exact probability of the
table of observed cell frequencies. Fisher’s Exact test on all of the variables under socio-demographic characteristics (i.e. sex,

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civil status, educational attainment, nature of work, position in MCDRRMC, and DRRM training experience) and knowledge
sharing channels (i.e. formal and informal knowledge sharing channels) revealed that all of the p-values are greater than the
significance level of 0.05 (Table 1). This means that there is no association among all these variables.

Socio-demographic characteristics associated with knowledge sharing channels p-value*
Sex vs. Channels 0.2095
Civil status vs. Channels 1
Educational attainment vs. Channels 1
Nature of work vs. Channels 0.5059
Position in MCDRRMC vs. Channels 1
DRRM training experience vs. Channels 0.2174
*significance level of p<0.05

Association test was not done among adaptive knowledge sharing behavior, knowledge sharing channels, and socio-
demographic characteristics. This is because all of the participants (100%) scored ‘High’ on adaptive knowledge sharing
behavior and there are no values that fall into ‘Medium’ and ‘Low’ categories. regardless of variables under socio-demographic
characteristics and knowledge sharing channels, the adaptive knowledge sharing behavior will always fall under ‘High’
Meanwhile, Fisher’s Exact test was conducted in associating socio-demographic characteristics and knowledge sharing
channels. The results of this study did not yield the same result with the research conducted in Reference [24] about the
effectiveness of communication channels while sharing information to co-workers. They investigated the perceptions of 509
employees in nine Kuwaiti companies. They found that nature of work was significantly associated with informal one-to-one
communication, formal one-to-one communication, emailing, chatting with individuals over internet, communicating through
discussion groups over internet, and personal notes to employees on scrap paper. Similarly, gender was significantly associated
with formal one-to-one communication, formal meetings with groups of employees, email, use of official correspondence, and
use of personal notes. The length of employment was also significantly associated with chatting, use of discussion groups, and
use of personal notes. There was also significant association between channels and age (i.e. chatting and use of Internet-based
discussion groups) and educational attainment (i.e. informal one-to-one and formal group meetings).
These findings from Reference [24] confirmed that socio-demographic characteristics of employees have a strong link on
the channels they use. However, on this study, no significant associations were found. MCDRRMC agents are not hinged only
on specific channels. Moreover, the use of channels does not have any bearing on their socio-demographic characteristics.
Other studies on literature did not explicitly take into account the lens of adaptive capacity and complexity concepts when
soliciting empirical evidences about knowledge sharing behavior. This could probably the reason why this study yields a
different result. Although there are no significant relationships found, this result can translate to a more meaningful
explanation. This means that even most of the respondents chose formal knowledge sharing channels as the most effective,
this variable is not hinged on any other variables under socio-demographic characteristics, e.g. only males tend to choose
formal knowledge sharing channels. Thus, by offering a wide range of knowledge sharing channels, be it formal or informal,
will create plurality of platforms to be used in sharing knowledge about DRRM. Since all of the participants have high adaptive
knowledge sharing behavior, depending on the needs and context, they may have a flexible decision on what channel is going
to be used.
There are significant relationships found among the identified social networks based on four thematic areas of DRRM.
QAP correlation is being used to test the association between networks [22]. UCINET computes the Pearson’s r between
matrices to correlate two networks. Afterwards, UCINET conducts permutation testing or reordering of data in the matrices.
Pearson’s r is then recomputed and the result was compared to the original result. This process of permutation testing and
getting the Pearson’s r happened 5,000 times in UCINET [22].
Table II shows the results of the QAP correlation. The p-value on all correlated networks is 0.0002. This proportion of
less than 0.05 per cent means that there is significant relationship among the networks. Furthermore, the relationship of
observed matrices in the networks is unlikely due to chance.

Knowledge sharing networks QAP correlation p-value
Disaster prevention and hazard mitigation by disaster preparedness 0.7910 0. 0002
Disaster prevention and hazard mitigation by disaster response 0.7441 0.0002
Disaster prevention and hazard mitigation by recovery and 0.7732 0.0002
Disaster preparedness by disaster response 0.8024 0.0002
Disaster preparedness by recovery and rehabilitation 0.7784 0.0002
Disaster response by recovery and rehabilitation 0.7316 0.0002

This means that social networks of MCDRRMC on four thematic areas of DRRM are interrelated. This certainly shows
that DRRM themes in the context of Marikina City have no clear-cut boundaries. Moreover, the result shows that MCDRRMC

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agents put equal importance on four thematic areas of DRRM. However, several experts on DRRM purported that efforts must
focus more on disaster prevention and hazard mitigation, as well as preparedness and early warning system which are the long-
term phases of DRRM. Despite the importance of early warning, it isn’t given much attention especially in investment [28].
As Reference [28] cited, the Global Humanitarian Assistance report revealed that $22 billion were allocated in humanitarian
response while only $563 million was in prevention and preparedness. By focusing more on the long-term phase of DRRM,
local governments can save more lives and reduce the impact of losses. Moreover, local communities must be well-engaged
in incorporating their local ecological and historical knowledge in DRRM strategies. This increases the capacity of the overall
integrity of system in withstanding abrupt changes in the environment.


Based on the results of this study, key themes were developed in explaining adaptive knowledge sharing in complex
DRRM system.
Flexibility is a key component in adaptive capacity. Flexibility can be fostered by tapping the potentials of various kinds
of knowledge sharing channels, whether formal or informal, and using such depending on the context. Flexibility also becomes
crucial when the internal and external contexts of the organization changes through time. Lastly, in social networks, flexibility
is essential to allow knowledge flow and move across the network.
Network density reflects robustness and resilience of system. Less dense networks, as seen in the case of MCDRRMC,
enable members to assert their individual strengths that are necessary in balancing persistence and change.
Skewed attention given to scientific knowledge undermines the importance of local knowledge in reducing uncertainties
and dealing with complexity. Civil society organizations and private sectors have unique knowledge that can contribute to
DRRM initiatives. By making them more active in knowledge sharing activities, multiple knowledge will be integrated and
this reduces uncertainties, and thus increasing adaptive capacity of agents in DRRM Council. Moreover, the marginalized
sector, youth, women, and religious groups, among others, may have representatives in the Council to incorporate a more
holistic and participatory DRRM.
Social networks are important in navigating DRRM organizations towards the edge of chaos. Local governments, being
at the forefront of DRRM initiatives, are by nature formal organizations. Their structures, roles, and processes are guided by
city ordinances and executive orders. However, with social networks, being a self-organized endeavor, DRRM organizations
can counterbalance the traditional bureaucracies and operate into a more adaptive state.
Through this study, local governments may be informed on how they should design knowledge sharing strategies that
would effectively mitigate risk and save more lives. This study serves as benchmark to other local governments in the
Philippines which are also vulnerable to disasters, and provides policy implications in developing collaboration mechanisms
of agents in DRRM Councils. By streamlining an adaptive knowledge sharing framework on disaster risk reduction,
communities can be more resilient and increase chances of survival in the complexity and uncertainty brought by disasters.

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[2] World Bank, World Development Report 1998/1999: Knowledge for Development. Oxford University Press: USA, 1999.
[3] S.D. Talisayon and J. P. Suministrado, “Community wealth rediscovered: Knowledge for poverty alleviation.” Center for Conscious
Living Foundation, Inc. and Peace Equity Access for Community Empowerment Foundation, Inc., 2008.
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climate, and CMC use on knowledge sharing,” Journal of Knowledge Management, vol. 8, no. 6, 2004, pp. 117-310.
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[10] S. Cummings, B. J. Regeer, W. S. Ho, and M. B. Zweekhorst, “Proposing a fifth generation of knowledge management for
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[11] B. Ramalingam, H. Jones, T. Reba, and J. Young, J, Exploring the Science of Complexity: Ideas and Implications for Development
and Humanitarian Efforts. Overseas Development Institute: London, 2008.
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[13] P. Cilliers, Complexity and Postmodernism: Understanding Complex Systems. London: Routledge, 1998.
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[15] H. Janus and S. Paulo, Does aid stand on the age of chaos? The Current Curriculum. German Development Institute, 2013.

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[16] B. McLelvey and P. Adriani, “Avoiding extreme risk before it occurs: A complexity science approach to incubation,” Risk
Management, vol. 12, no. 1, 2010, pp. 54–82.
[17] T. L. Sellnow, M. W. Seeger, and R. R. Ulmer, “Chaos Theory, Informational Needs, and Natural Disasters,” in 2000 Central States
Communication Association Annual Conference. Detroit, MI, 2000.
[18] D. Provitolo, E. Dubos-Paillard, and J. P. Müller, “Emergent human behaviour during a disaster: Thematic versus complex systems”,
[19] C. Folke, T. Hahn, P. Olsson, and J. Norberg, “Adaptive governance of social-ecological systems,” Annual Review of Environment
and Resources, vol. 30, 2005, pp. 441-473.
[20] R. M. Cutler, “Complexity Science and Knowledge-Creation in International Relations Theory, Institutional and Infrastructural
Resources,” in Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems, 2002.
[21] T. I. Sanders, and J. A. McCabe. “The Use of Complexity Science: A Survey of Federal Departments and Agencies, Private
Foundations, Universities, and Independent Education and Research Centers.” Washington Center for Complexity and Public Policy:
Washington, DC, 2003.
[22] C. Prell, Social Network Analysis: History, theory, and methodology. SAGE Pub, 2003.
[23] A. Mittal, “Enabling collaboration and broad communication through social media at the workplace,” Infosys Lab Briefings, vol. 10,
no. 1, 2012, pp. 15-20.
[24] S. Rehman and L. Marouf, “Communication Channels and Employee Characteristics: An Investigation,” Singapore Journal of
Library & Information Management, vol. 37, 2008.
[25] C. Webb and O. Bodin, “A network perspective on modularity and control of flow in robust systems,” In Norberg and Cumming
Complexity Theory for Sustainable Future. Columbia University Press, 2013.
[26] M. Granovetter, “The strength of weak ties,” American Journal of Sociology, vol. 78, no. 6, 1973, pp. 1360-1380.
[27] D.R Armitage, R. Plummer, F. Berkes, R. I. Arthur, A. T. Charles, I. J. Davidson-Hunt, A. P. Diduck, N. C., Doubleday, D. S.
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Classifying Urban Climate Zones (UCZs) based on Spatial Statistical

Lee, D.,1 and Oh, K.2,*
Research Institute of Spatial Planning and Policy, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea
Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea; *
Abstract—The objective of this study is the classification of urban climate zones (UCZs) based on spatial statistical approaches
to provide key information for the establishment of thermal environments to improve urban planning. To achieve this, using
data from 246 Automatic Weather Stations (AWSs), air temperature maps in the summer of the study area were prepared
applying K-kriging interpolation analysis. In addition, 24 preliminary variables to classify UCZs were prepared by a 100m x
100m grid. Next, 6 influential urban spatial variables to classify UCZs were finalized using spatial regression analysis between
air temperature and potential variables. Finally, the UCZs of the study area were classified by applying K-mean clustering
analysis, and each spatial characteristic of the UCZs was identified. The results found that the accuracy of the air temperature
of the study area ranged from ±0.184℃ to ±0.824℃ with a mean 0.501 Root Mean Square Predict Error (RMSPE). In addition,
elevation, NDVI, commercial area, average height of buildings, terrain roughness class, H/W ratio, distance from subway
stations and distance from water spaces were identified as finalized variables to classify UCZs. Finally, a total of 8 types of
UCZs were identified and each zone showed a different urban spatial pattern and air temperature range. Based on the spatial
statistical analysis results, this study delineated clearer UCZs boundaries by applying influential urban spatial elements. The
methods presented in this study can be effectively applied to other cities to establish urban heat island counter measures that
have similar weather conditions and urban spatial characteristics.
Keywords—urban climate zones, spatial statistical analysis, air temperature, urban spatial variables

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomena has been recognized as negative side effect of rapid urbanization. The main
causes of the urban heat island phenomenon include trapping of short and long wave radiation between buildings, decreasing
of long-wave radiative heat losses due to building construction, increasing storage of sensible heat in the construction materials,
anthropogenic heat released from human activities, and reduction of evapotranspiration potential (Oke, 1982; Rizwan, Dennis
& Liu, 2008). Various attempts have been made to mitigate UHI through urban planning and design. In order to achieve
effective urban heat island mitigation, it is necessary to understand and apply urban climatic information in urban planning
(Lee & Oh, 2018).
In this regard, the urban climate zone (UCZ) concept is useful as a UHI mitigation measure because it offers integrated
information on climate characteristics and related spatial elements (Scherer et al., 1999). UCZs are homogeneously classified
areas that distinguish climate characteristics based on urban structure, land cover, urban fabric and urban metabolism (Oke
2006). Considered fundamental research on UCZ, Chandler (1965), Auer Jr. (1978), Ellefsen (1991), and Oke (2006)
established the concept of UCZ and suggested major variables including topography, land cover, building forms etc. to classify
UCZs. Recently, as empirical studies, Houet & Pigeon (2011) investigated the usefulness of the UCZ concept as tool to
understand climate phenomena, and Lee & Oh (2018) identified influential variables to classify UCZs and delineated UCZs
boundaries based on statistical analyses.
Meanwhile, statistical approaches have been applied to identify the relationship between UHI and urban spatial
characteristics. However, the statistical approach has a limitation in presenting several physical phenomena (Mirzaei &
Haghighat, 2010). The major reason for this limitation is that installing climate measurement devices in entire urban areas is
impossible due to space constraints, installation time, and expensive operating costs. This lack of observational data makes it
difficult to analyze the relationship between the urban heat island phenomena and urban spatial characteristics. Another reason
is that conventional regression analysis such as the ordinary least squares (OLS) model is based on the assumption that
observations are independent, resulting in a failure to capture the spatial dependence of data when it is applied to geo-
referenced datasets (Li et al., 2011). Therefore, spatial regression analysis has been recently used to explain UHI, according
for spatial neighborhood effect (Chun & Guldmann, 2014).
In order to classify UCZs more accurately, in-depth investigation is essential on the relationship between urban climate
changes and urban spatial elements through systematic and scientific analysis. Therefore, the aim of this study is to: 1) identify
influential urban spatial elements to classify UCZs based on spatial statistical analyses, 2) delineate UCZs boundaries, and 3)
provide key information for urban planning and design to establish UHI mitigation measures.


This study consists of four parts and each process is presented in Figure 1. First, observation data were obtained from 246
AWS, which were observed on cloudless days with gentle breeze wind speed (less than 5.4m/sec, based on Beaufort Wind
Scale). Using these data, air temperature maps of the study area were prepared by a Universal Kriging (UK) interpolation
method. Next, preliminary independent variables were prepared including topography, land use, land cover, urban form, human
activities, and locational characteristics to predict air temperature. Third, influential urban spatial elements were identified to
classify UCZs by spatial regression analysis. Finally, UCZs boundaries in the study area were delineated by K-means clustering

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analysis. In addition, the spatial characteristics of each UCZ were investigated.

Figure 1. Study workflow.

A case study was conducted for Seoul, the capital of South Korea. Seoul is one of the densest cities in the world in which
21.5% (about 11 million inhabitants) of country’s total population reside. Seoul is also a representative heat island city that
has diverse spatial characteristics including land cover, land use, building form, etc. (Figure 2).

Figure 2. The study area and automatic weather stations (AWS).

A. Analysis of air temperature

The urban heat island intensity in a metropolitan city is pronounced and usually shows up 2-3 hours after sunset for
cloudless sky days and light winds (Landsberg, 1981). Considering such characteristics of an urban heat island, analysis time
points were selected to classify UCZs. In order to take into account the climate characteristics, three days per month in summer
(from June to August) with the lowest cloudiness and the lowest wind speed were investigated. Subsequently, considering
sunset times and weather conditions (under a cloudless sky and gentle breeze wind speed), 10:00pm, 11:00pm of 9 days in
summer in 2015 and 2016 were chosen for statistical analyses (Table 1).

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Min. air temperature Max. air temperature Mean air temperature Mean wind speed Meanamountofcloud(1~10)
June 6th 18.8°C 31.1°C 24.4°C 2.4m/sec 1.4
June 14th 18.3°C 37.7°C 22.5°C 3.3m/sec 3.9
June 30th 21.2°C 30.2°C 25.3°C 2.7m/sec 3.4
July 4th 21.6°C 32.3°C 26.8 °C 2.4m/sec 3.6
2015 July 27th 21.4°C 30.6°C 25.0°C 1.9m/sec 4.0
July 29th 30.1°C 33.5°C 28.6°C 2.5m/sec 2.5
August 8th 26.1°C 30.6°C 26.1°C 3.8m/sec 2.1
August 28th 19.8°C 30.7°C 25.1°C 2.2m/sec 1.6
August 30th 19.9°C 30.7°C 24.6°C 1.9m/sec 2.4
June 5th 17.3°C 32.2°C 24.7°C 1.7m/sec 3.5
June 9th 17.8°C 31.3°C 24.1°C 2.0m/sec 1.4
June 19th 20.3°C 29.3°C 1.90°C 2.7m/sec 4.4
July 8th 27.3°C 21.2°C 32.4 °C 1.8m/sec 0.1
2016 July 9th 27.7°C 23.2°C 33.1°C 1.8m/sec 3.1
July 19th 20.9°C 32.4°C 27.1°C 1.5m/sec 3.6
August 5th 26.5°C 36.0°C 31.2°C 1.8m/sec 1.9
August 10th 26.1°C 34.8°C 29.4°C 1.9m/sec 4.4
August 17th 25.1°C 34.7°C 29.9°C 1.9m/sec 2.4

In order to delineate air temperature of entire study area, the UK interpolation method was applied. The UK interpolation
method is based on the Gaussian Process Regression Model (GPRM). The GPRM is computed as follows Eq. (1):

𝑦𝑦 = 𝐹𝐹𝐹𝐹 + 𝑍𝑍(𝑋𝑋) + 𝑒𝑒 (1)

Where F is the designed matrix, B is the regression coefficient, Z(X) is the Gaussian stochastic process which shows
average 0, and 𝜎𝜎 2 𝑅𝑅(𝑋𝑋) variance-covariance matrix, e is normal distributed observational error which shows an average 0 and
𝜎𝜎𝑒𝑒2 variance. Based on GRPM, additional explanatory variables are inputted in the UK interpolation method and the Eq. 2 is
as follows:

𝑦𝑦 = 𝛽𝛽0 + 𝛽𝛽2 (𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒𝑒) + 𝛽𝛽2 (𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓𝑓 𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠) + 𝛽𝛽3 (𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠𝑠 𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎 𝑟𝑟𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎𝑎) + 𝑍𝑍(𝑋𝑋) + 𝑒𝑒

In the case of Z(X), it is determined by latitude and longitude coordinates. To determine the appropriate interpolation
methods, data from 220 private AWS were interpolated using UK interpolation methods and they were compared with data
from 26 KMA AWSs. The results found that the Root Mean Square Predict Error (RMSPE) by the UK interpolation method
ranged from ±0.184℃ to ±0.824℃ with a mean 0.501℃. Among the 36 analysis time points, 10 time points which shows the
relatively low RMSPE (less than 0.45) were selected to delineated air temperature (Table 2). Thus, 10 air temperature maps of
2 and 3 hours after sunset were prepared, and finally, an average air temperature map was calculated from these maps.

Min. (℃) Max. (℃) Mean (℃) S.D RMSPE
2015 12pm, June 6 15.330 24.021 21.890 1.320 0.390
10pm, July 1 15.124 23.133 21.569 1.034 0.439
10pm, July 27 22.330 29.242 27.897 0.921 0.428
11pm, July 27 24.356 28.327 27.258 1.021 0.435
10pm, July 30 24.745 29.756 27.235 1.243 0.325
2016 10pm, June 5 16.312 25.021 22.814 1.245 0.371
10pm, July 8 16.532 25.721 23.024 1.221 0.390
11pm, August 10 29.751 29.751 28.019 1.251 0.184
10pm august 17 31.211 31.211 29.149 1.383 0.203
11pm, August 17 30.714 30.714 27.571 1.320 0.260

B. Selection of preliminary variables

Adopting the research of Lee & Oh (2018), this study classified urban spatial elements into 6 categories including
topology, land use, land cover, building characteristics, human activity, and locational characteristics. The number of total

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preliminary variables is 23 (Table 3). Meanwhile, determining spatial resolution for is important in order to identify influential
variables and delineate UCZs boundaries. Considering the research of Houet & Pigeon (2011) and Lee & Oh (2018), this study
prepared preliminary variables to classify UCZs using a 100m grid resolution.

Categories Variables (unit)
Topography Slope (degree), elevation (m)
Land use Residential, commercial, industrial, green space, water space area ratio (%)
Land cover Impervious surface area ratio (%), albedo (0-1), NDVI (0-1)

Average width of buildings (m), average height of buildings (m), The number of buildings, building surface fraction (%),
Urban form
floor area ratio (%), H/W ratio (number), terrain roughness class (number)

Human activities Population (person), number of vehicles (number)

Distance from green spaces (m), distance from water spaces (m), Distance from subway stations (m)

C. Identification of influential urban spatial elements to classify UCZs

To select independent variables for an air temperature prediction model, correlation analysis was conducted to investigate
the interrelationship between preliminary variables and air temperature. The potential multi-collinearity among the preliminary
variables were also identified. Based on correlation analysis, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis was applied.
In order to reduce the heteroscedastic effect of wide ranging preliminary variables, the logarithm of the dependent variable,
Ln (air temperature), was used. A step-wise regression analysis method (forward selection approach) was applied to find
influential variables that would affect air temperature. Because the air temperature map was delineated by the interpolation
method, the Spatial Lag Model (SLM) was next estimated to control the effects of air-temperature in neighboring grids.
D. UCZ Classification
Using the influential urban spatial elements identified, the UCZs of the study area were classified by K-means clustering
analysis. Next, the appropriateness of the classified UCZs results of the study area were verified by an ANOVA test on air
temperature distribution. Then, characteristics of each UCZ were determined based on the K-means clustering analysis results.
Finally, the UCZs maps were prepared to explain the actual air temperature phenomenon.


A. Air temperature
Figure 3 presents air temperature maps of the study area. Air temperatures ranged from 24.14°C to 30.46 with an average
value of 27.23°C. The maximum temperature differences were analyzed and found to be more than 6.32°C. This confirmed
that the urban heat island phenomenon is relatively severe in the study area.

Figure 3. Air temperature in study area.

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B. Identification of influential urban spatial elements to classify UCZs

Table 4 shows the correlation analysis results of air temperature and urban spatial elements. The most positively
correlated variable is the impervious surface area ratio, whereas the elevation showed the most negative correlation. In order
to create a model to predict air temperature, variables that had strong correlations were inputted for step-wise regression
analysis. In order to create a model to predict air temperature, the variables that had strong correlations were inputted for the
step-wise regression analysis using the statistical software (SPSS 21). The estimated model shows 0.603 of R2 and eight
variables were found to be significant at the 99% level and had signs consistent with the results of the correlation analysis. In
addition, due to the multi-collinearity diagnosis, all VIFs of the dependent variables were found to be less than 3, and it was
confirmed that there was no multi-collinearity problem in the models.
However, as a result of Lagrange multiplier diagnostics for spatial dependence, it was found that the OLS error terms
are spatially autocorrelated. In order to reduce this spatial auto correlation, SLM was next estimated to control the effects of
air temperature in neighboring grids. The results showed that R2 of SLM increased to 0.828, and coefficients of the independent
variables have the same signs as in the OLS models. In addition, 8 variables are all significant at the 1% level. Therefore, 8
variables including elevation, NDVI, commercial area, average height of buildings, terrain roughness class, H/W ratio, distance
from subway stations and distance from water spaces were included as significant variables to classify UCZs (Table 5).

Categories Correlation coefficients
Topography Elevation (-.681**), slope (-.621**)
Land use Green space (-.501**), commercial (.310**), residential (.284**), Industrial (.037**)

Land cover Impervious surface area ratio (.552**), NDVI (-.603**), albedo (-.461**)

SVF (-.400**), average width of buildings (.356**), average height of buildings (.309**), the number of buildings (.331**),
Urban form
building surface fraction (.437**), terrain roughness class (.559**), H/W ratio (.187**)

Distance from green spaces (.411**), distance from subway stations (-.670**), distance from water spaces (-.047**)
N: 52,961, **: p<0.01

Coefficient t Coefficient z
T Elevation -1.914E-04*** -85.345 -9.936E-05*** -58.788
LU Commercial 4.252-07*** -15.332 1.775E-07*** 4.435
LC NDVI -0.036*** -15.332 -0.015*** -10.655
UF TRC 0.027*** 45.107 0.010*** 27.525
AHB 8.861E-05*** 8.548 3.561E-07*** 4.938
H/W 1.982E-04*** 6.504 1.982E-04*** 4.585
LoC DS -1.775E-05*** -69.509 -7.893E-05*** -44.6821
DW 4.204E-06*** 19.503 2.544E-06*** 17.2331
constant 3.353*** 3783.853 1.542 162.049
ρ - 0.540 190.521
Log-likelihood 112,643 133,591
R 2
0.603 0.828
N: 52,961, *** Statistically significant at the 1% level
(T: Topography, LU: Land Use, LC: Land Cover, UF: Urban Form, LoC: Locational Characteristics, TRC: Terrain Roughness Class, AHB: Average Height
of Buildings, DS: Distance from Subway Station, DW: Distance from Water spaces)

C. The results of UCZ classification

Eight different UCZs were determined (Table 6), and the ANOVA test results showed that each classified UCZ is in a
statistically different group (Figure 4). Based on the cluster results, UCZs can be classified into mountainous areas (cluster 1),
hilly areas and urban forest (cluster 4), high-rise built up areas with very a high H/W ratio (cluster 3), mid-rise built up areas
with a high H/W ratio (cluster 5), mid-rise built up areas without green spaces (cluster 6), high-rise built up areas with a high
H/W ratio (cluster 2), high-rise built up areas with various building heights (cluster 7), and commercial areas without green
spaces (Figure 5).

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Cluster 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Factor (N:4,868) (N:40) (N:183) (N:13,843) (N:1,214) (N:20,007) (N:4,280) (N:8,526)
Elevation 2.583 -.000 -.039 .121 -.183 -.390 -.444 -.506
DS 1.988 .062 -.075 .412 -.203 -.400 -.468 -.599
TRC -1.154 -.187 -.155 -1.164 .142 .616 .522 .825
DS .471 .113 .052 -.173 .220 .102 -.405 -.058
NDVI 1.483 .621 .501 .957 .048 -.573 -.411 -.870
H/W ratio -.491 18.211 9.461 -.410 2.692 .050 .200 .056
Commercial -.525 -.528 -.460 -.500 -.432 -.284 -.311 2.010
AHB -.749 3.673 2.157 -.639 1.546 -.066 2.415 .125

Figure 4. Air temperature distribution of UCZs.

Figure 5. Classification result of UCZs.

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Through a series of statistical analyses, this study identified more detailed and clearer UCZ boundaries (100m×100m)
and explained statistically significant urban spatial characteristics to understand urban climate phenomena. Applying spatial
regression analyses, influential urban spatial elements causing air temperature increase and their effects were concretely
investigated. In addition, the potential areas where urban heat islands occur were delineated using UCZ maps.
The UCZ classification based on spatial statistical analyses conducted in this study has the following usefulness: First,
this study delineated air-temperature maps which relatively shows high accuracy using an interpolation method. Due to a lack
of observation data, the conventional interpolation method to delineate urban air temperature was robust. As a result, accuracy
analysis on the relationship between air temperature and urban spatial characteristics was very difficult. In fact, most previous
studies used land surface temperature data to identify the effects of urban spatial characteristics. By applying a number of
AWSs data, this study overcame such a limitation, and a more direct effect on air-temperature was investigated. In addition,
using a number of AWSs data, applying the UK interpolation method which consider effects of elevation and water space,
more accuracy air-temperature map was delineated. Such an air temperature analysis method will enhance the efficiency and
accuracy of investigating climate phenomena.
Second, by applying spatial regression analysis, influential variables that affect air temperature were identified, and their
effects on air temperature were investigated. Thus, this study suggested integrated information on climate characteristics and
related urban spatial elements. The outcomes of this study can provide urban planners with practical information to improve
the urban thermal environment. Moreover, the results of this study will enable urban planners to determine what kind of
mitigation alternatives should be employed to reduce urban heat islands.
Finally, considering the distribution of influential variables has an effect on air temperature, more detailed UCZs
boundaries were delineated, and the spatial characteristics of each UCZ was investigated. Through the entire process, potential
urban heat islands areas and the causes of their occurrence were identified. Such results will enable urban planners to determine
which areas should be preferentially managed to enhance the thermal environment.
The methods presented in this study can be effectively applied to other cities that have similar weather conditions and
urban spatial patterns. If more urban spatial characteristics including slope, vegetation, soil are known, more accurate air
temperature analysis will be possible. Furthermore, if other spatial regression models including the spatial error model and
general model are applied, a more concrete relationship between air temperature and urban spatial characteristics will be
understood. Also, if other climate factors including wind speed and relative humidity are considered in the classification of
UCZs, more accurate and useful information can be provided for UHI mitigation measures.

This research was supported by a grant (18ADUP-B102560-04) from the Architecture and Urban Development Research
Program (AUDP) funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean Government.

Chun, B. & Guldmann, J.M. 2014, 'Spatial statistical analysis and simulation of the urban heat island in high-density central cities', Landscape and Urban
Planning, vol. 125, pp. 76-88.
Ellefsen, R. 1991, 'Mapping and measuring buildings in the canopy boundary layer in ten U.S. cities', Energy and Buildings, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 1025-49.
Houet, T. & Pigeon, G. 2011, 'Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors – An application on Toulouse urban area (France)',
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Understanding the Disaster Risk by Analysing Historical Situations:

Case Study Aceh Tsunami and Haiti Earthquake
Mustofa, I.
Water System and Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research, the Netherlands
Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia;
Abstract—Risk from the calamities is no longer defined as the natural occurrence. Different with hazards, disaster risk includes
the susceptibility and exposure among local people in the affected area. This study aims to understand the risk in such areas
by analysing certain socio-political situations deemed as the historical aspects resulting the occurrence of disaster. We used
the pressure and release (PAR) model as our framework distinguished by the progression of vulnerability and progression of
safety. To analyse the data, we used the literature reviews from journals, newspapers, and policy papers. We analysed the
historical situations including physical, social, and political situations in two case study areas, Aceh and Haiti. We also tried
to compare the similarities and differences of factors leading the disaster risk in those case study areas, including the ways to
cope with. Furthermore, we analysed the solutions to deal with the multiple problems on the progression of safety. Research
revealed that case study areas suffered worse impacts of disasters due to their specific historical situations. As 2004 Aceh
Tsunami happened, many aspects took responsibility to those risk, such as the government instability, local conflict, lack of
local institutions, and lack of preparedness leading to greater disaster risk. Also 2010 Haiti Earthquake resulted massive
impacts in many parts of the country due to the government instability and the absence of preparedness. The results also
showed that the different areas could have various situations affecting disaster. Additionally, the progression of safety could
be implemented as the solution to decrease the impact of disaster by human-related actions. Hence, the findings of this study
could have strong contributions for policy makers to analyse the triggering factors of disasters as well as to decrease the impact
of disaster itself.
Keywords—disaster risk, Aceh tsunami, Haiti earthquake, PAR model


D ISASTERS happen around the world, resulting in material losses and casualties. Disaster risk is getting high as the
impact of hazards, climate change, global change, and other social problems. In certain developing countries, such as
Indonesia and Haiti, many calamities followed by great devastated. In disaster trend, the occurrence of hydro-meteorological
disasters is getting higher, such as floods, landslides, forest fires, etc. However, although the appearance of geological disasters
such as earthquake and tsunami are rare, the impacts of those disasters were numerous. It is appointed by hundreds of people
who passed away, and thousands people were affected, followed by heavy devastated of areas.
It is essential to be understood that risk from the calamities is no longer defined as the natural occurrence. Different from
hazards, disaster risk includes susceptibility and exposure among local people in the affected area. Many problems had led to
disasters. In this paper, the case studies from two affected areas from great disasters are studied. As 2004 Aceh Tsunami
happened, many aspects took responsibility to those risk, such as government instability, local conflict, lack of local
institutions, and lack of preparedness leading to greater disaster risk. Also, the 2010 Haiti Earthquake resulted in massive
impacts in many parts of the country due to the government instability and the absence of preparedness. Hence, the social
production of vulnerability needs to be seen with at least the same degree of importance that is devoted to understanding and
addressing natural hazards.
This study aims to understand the risk in such areas by analysing certain socio-political situations deemed as the historical
aspects resulting in the occurrence of the disaster. We used the pressure and release (PAR) model as our framework
distinguished by the progression of vulnerability and progression of safety.


A. Literature Review of Pressure and Release (PAR) Model
The PAR model is a causal type of disaster management model which suggests some underlying causes of disasters
through the analysis of the nature of the hazard thus distinguishing a critical element in the study of the interaction of disaster
stages. The PAR is utilised by the development of two processes, which are the progression of vulnerability and the progression
of safety. The former gives insight into the development of vulnerability while the latter provides how safety can be achieved
[23]. The PAR Model is distinguished into several phases, which are root causes, dynamic pressures, and unsafe conditions.
Specific root causes form vulnerability distinguished by economic, demographic and political situations. These
conditions, of course, impact the resources (allocation and distribution). They are a result of economic, social, and political
structures, and also legal definitions and enforcement of the ideological order (i.e. right and gender). Root causes are also
related to the function of the state, and with good governance, the law and the administration. Root causes reveal the
distribution of power in a society.
Dynamic pressures bring the activities and processes of root causes into unsafe conditions as manifestations of general
underlying economic, social and political patterns. Dynamic pressures form unsafe conditions that they have to be considered
with the different types of hazards facing people. The processes of dynamic pressures operate to channel root causes into
unsafe conditions enable us to analyse how the forces play themselves out ‘on the ground’, in a strong spatial and temporal

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Unsafe conditions explained the vulnerability of local people that is expressed in time and space connected to a hazard.
Also, unsafe conditions depend on the prosperity level among local people, and how this level varies between government
level (including households and individuals). It is essential also to consider the pattern of access to tangible resources (e.g.
cash, shelter, food stocks, agricultural equipment) and intangible things (support, knowledge and sources of assistance, morale
and the ability to function in a crisis).
B. Research Methodology
Analysing the overview of the study areas is essential to undertake the situation happened. It will encompass its history,
geographic location, government and socio-economic characteristics. Many related papers and journals related to those
disasters were used to analyse the situations in two case studies. Furthermore, many components were explained as the
historical situations before catastrophe to address the vulnerability of both Aceh people and Haitians and to set the context for
the findings. Finally, recommendations will be forwarded by the development of the release aspect of the PAR to show the
way forward for less vulnerability and consequently, better resilience.


A. Aceh Tsunami
1) Background of the Area
This case study examines the effects of the 2004 tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia. On December 26, 2004, an earthquake
extending over 1,300 kilometres and measuring between 9.1 and 9.3 on the Richter scale took place 30 kilometres deep in the
Indian Ocean. While this was one of the most massive measured earthquakes in human history and it led to the destruction of
many buildings, it was the following waves of the tsunami that did the most damage. The tsunami killed between 250,000 and
300,000 in countries bordering the Indian Ocean [6]. Aceh was hit the hardest of all, having between 130,000 and 150,000
killed and over half a million people displaced. The tsunami also resulted in around $4,5 billion in damages or losses [34].
The first of the three waves hit the east-side of Aceh just 10 minutes after the earthquake. It was, however, the second
wave, that arrived 5 minutes later that was the most destructive. The tsunami wave varied in height between 10 and 30 meters
and reached several kilometres inland [3, 26]. Tsunamis are not a new phenomenon in Aceh. Over the centuries several
tsunamis have reached Aceh. The difference in unpreparedness for a tsunami is visible between different local ethnicities.
Several reports described the information of people picking up the fish left behind by the retreating sea, unaware of the
impending tsunami, while some indigenous peoples have been reported to flee in time and therefore have a much higher
survivor rate [34, 14].
The tsunami was not the only problem that Aceh has to face. Another “disaster” is the conflict between the Free Aceh
Movement (GAM) and the Indonesian state. Aceh as a region that has seen various forms of conflict revolving around
autonomy from the Dutch colonial government and later from the Indonesian state. We argue that this conflict, specifically in
the last thirty years, had a significant impact on Aceh’s vulnerability and was a significant reason the damage in the area, both
physical and societal, was so extensive.
2) Progression of Vulnerability

Figure 1. Progression of Vulnerability of the 2004 Aceh Tsunami.

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As the PAR diagram presented above (Figure 1), the assessment of vulnerability starts from the root causes which indicate
the underlying problems. In our case study, root causes could be social, economic, political and natural aspects that give rise
to vulnerability and affect the distribution of resources among different parts and groups of people. The root causes form the
basis for the next step in the model: the dynamic pressures. Dynamic pressures can be defined as the processes and activities
that change the impacts of root causes into vulnerability [1]. These dynamic pressures include for instance a decreased access
to resources, lack of local institutions, lack of community-based early warning system and destruction of mangroves. The
dynamic pressures lead to several unsafe conditions, which are described in the last phase of the PAR diagram. Such unsafe
conditions could, for instance, be weak and fragile local economic circumstances, problems in the physical environment, the
creation of harmful livelihoods and issues in public actions.

a) Hydrology and Ecology

The coastal ecosystems and their importance regarding coastal protection is slowly gaining recognition in Aceh, but while
some of these ecosystems are already supposed to be protected from human destruction, they are still danger of disappearing
[27, 22]. While mangroves were once very abundant, currently there are only a few patches of mangrove forest remaining.
Most of them have been removed to make way for tambaks: water basins built for shrimp cultivation. The diversity of the
forests that remain are quite poor as well. Coastal reefs are under stress by for instance pollution or sedimentation leading to
sometimes complete loss of these reefs [22, 5]. The same happens to seagrass beds, that suffer under pollution, siltation and
mechanical damage by for instance trawling [5].

b) Spatial planning
The spatial planning was done through Coastal Zone Management (CZM) and was carried out by the national government
until 1999. Provincial and local government agencies had very little say about the management. After 1999 the government
became more decentralized, and the provincial and local government got more authority over their local resources. CZM,
however, is still mostly managed by over 20 different agencies, of which only three are on a more local level [9]. Coordination
between these agencies and between different programmes was almost non-existent [9]. In Aceh, because of the conflict
between the Indonesian government and GAM, some agencies had little to no control or were barely functioning. These were,
for instance, the National Land Agency (BPN), which regulated land ownership, or the General Courts [13]. However, the call
for local autonomy of Aceh has provided them with increasing authority of their resources [27].

c) Physical infrastructure
Before the 2004 tsunami happened, the people of Aceh inhabited various buildings both engineered and non-engineered
[29]. During the tsunami, almost all types of buildings were destroyed (ibid.). A significant number of non-engineered
reinforced concrete structures were also structurally damaged, especially in first floor columns. Previous research also
explained that the damage done by the seismic disasters were not only to residential housings, but also government buildings
which were multi-story reinforced concrete structures [29]. These buildings however also had the poor seismic design. It was
different with engineered reinforced real frames which appear to have sufficient strength facing the tsunami. Light timber
frame buildings were extremely vulnerable to tsunami wave pressures. These buildings type were the devastated infrastructures
during the tsunami.

d) Social Aspects
The conflict between the Indonesian state and the GAM separatists had been going on for thirty years just before the
tsunami [24]. The province of Aceh has known social conflict and unrest from the days of Dutch colonial rule, and the most
recent conflict could be seen as the contemporary version of these earlier struggles against the Java-based colonial government
which continued against the independent Indonesian state. During the conflict, the separatist claims became not just territorial
but also religious, social and economic [14]. About 90% of the 340,000 people living in Aceh are of ethnic Acehnese descent
and have a cultural and historical heritage that they feel have been neglected and even disrespected by the Indonesian state.
Thirty years of conflict left a profound impact on Acehnese society. Human rights abuses from both sides of the conflict
and policies from the government such as martial law, the continued disrespect for Aceh’s cultural and religious customs.
Also, the influx of Javanese happened because of transmigration, seen by many Acehnese as an attempt to ‘Indonesianize’
Acehnese, had caused widespread poverty, distrust and hated towards the Indonesian government and sustained the fight for
independence. It is argued that the conflict created a so-called ‘conflict trap’ where the violence, in turn, weakened security
and the institutional capacities, reduced growth, lowered income, destroys infrastructure and redirects resources from
development [24], meaning that the conflict was detrimental to the resilience of communities. From this perspective, the
reasons for the large number of victims lie not only in geographical closeness to the epicentre of the earthquake, but also in
coastward population displacements, demanding access to land and resources, poverty, food insecurity, physical violence and
torture because of the conflict [14].

e) State & politics

UNDP (2006) explained that many areas which were damaged by the tsunami were also affected by conflict both vertical
and horizontal. Originally, Aceh together with the Yogyakarta province were two regions among many areas in Indonesia

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which are so-called special regions of Aceh (Daerah Istimewa Aceh). Because of decentralisation and also special autonomy,
Aceh has been granted a larger part of the revenue from its natural resources, rather than other provinces in Indonesia. Before
the tsunami, the coordinating agency at province level was the inter-sectoral coordinating body (Satkorlak), which have a full
dependency on the provincial government [31]. Below the provincial level, there was ‘satlak’ as the coordinating body at the
districts. Technically, 'satkorlak' and 'satlak' often created unclear situations by miscommunication and misconception in the
implementation of mandates.

f) Management policy
Disaster management is crucial especially for a disaster-prone country such as Indonesia. Indonesia is vulnerable to
natural hazards both hydro-meteorological and geological [30]. Unfortunately, Indonesia did not apply disaster risk reduction
as the main priority to face various hazards before the tsunami in 2004. There was no particular policy in place to prepare for
all phases of disaster risk reduction, such as mitigation and prevention. This situation resulted in a high number of casualties,
destroying infrastructure, and emergencies when the tsunami happened in 2004.
B. Haiti Earthquake
1) Background of the Area
On January 12th 2010, a 35 seconds earthquake struck Haiti measuring 7.0 on the Richter scale, and it was one of the
most devastating natural disasters of the last decade [25]. The epicentre of the earthquake was placed at 35 km from Port-au-
Prince's Metropolitan area and damaged the most populated areas of the nation. In the following eight days, Haiti was struck
by 50 aftershocks with a magnitude of an average of 4.0 further worsening the situation [19].
Haiti is situated in the island of Hispaniola between the Caribbean Sea and the North Atlantic Ocean with a total area of
27,750 square km. It takes one-third of the island, while the Dominican Republic covers the rest on it. The geographic location
of Haiti also makes it prone to geological incidents as the Haitian part of the island of Hispaniola sits sandwiched between two
fault lines known as strike-slip faults between the North American Tectonic the Caribbean plates [17].
According to [20], the disaster resulted in thousands of deaths and billions of USD worth of damage, while the country’s
rank lowered from 145th to 168th on United Nation’s Human Development Index. The government capacity was also
debilitated because many civil servants were killed, official buildings, main infrastructures and energy sources were destroyed,
inducing an overwhelming job loss [20].
Once called The Jewel of the Antilles, Haiti was the wealthiest colony in the world and provided approximately 50% of
the national product of France by many natural exports. Meanwhile, France, refined and sold the exportation from Haiti to the
rest of Europe in the 18th century [8]. One of the main reasons for this high productivity was the slave labour which was
described as the most brutal in the Caribbean by many documents of western slavery. The system of slavery had freedom
earning possibility by the slaves which depended on their exceptional work, that is the reason why it worked well and had high
productivity [8]. Subsequently, this led to a long slave struggle led by Jean-Jacques Dessalines, who brought Haiti’s
independence on the 1st of January 1804, resulting in the only successful slave revolution in the history [15].
This historic moment helped to build national pride and solidarity among social distinctions in Haiti, but despite this
growing nationalism, Haiti’s leaders and most of the population were set on different courses, resulting in the destruction of
physical and human capital through revolutionary wars [33].
The revolution was seen as a dangerous precedent to other colonised states, which led to an international boycott of
Haitian goods and commerce, pioneering the first blow to the Haitian economy [8]. The next blow to the economy was the
150 million Franc debt to be paid to France for indemnities which took decades to pay, including interests [8].
More recent overview of Haiti’s history shows prevalent poverty levels that led it to be considered one of the poorest
states in the Western Hemisphere [28]. The indicator reflects that half of the population is living in poverty, affecting their
social conditions such as literacy, life expectancy, infant mortality and child malnutrition, which caused households to adopt
several coping strategies [10]. The food restriction strategy affects hunger thus indirectly affecting productivity due to
inadequate physical conditions [10].
Throughout the occupation of Haiti by the United States (1915-1934) up to the present day, the political system in Haiti
is used to secure personal gain and subsequently contributing to corruption [33]. Before the earthquake, politics in Haiti was
marked by uncertainty and a deep divide between the executive and opposition parties. When the earthquake occurred in
January, the country was in the middle of the president’s election (elections in November), and it raised the conflict around
the question whether these elections should be postponed or not [18].
2) Progression of Vulnerability
As the PAR diagram presented above (Figure 2), the assessment of vulnerability is started from root causes including
social, economic, political and natural aspects. It was clear that Haiti had straitened circumstances from almost all aspects such
as severe international market, located on faults and tectonic plates, political instability and corruption. It caused failures so
called with dynamic pressures, for instances lack education and water sanitation and poor governance. In the last phase, this
PAR diagram explains more about previous conditions that exacerbate the situations which called unsafe conditions. Those
can be the problems in the physical environment, local economy, social relations and public action. Suffered from these adverse
conditions, while earthquake came, it would be a big disaster.

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Figure 2. Progression of vulnerability of the 2010 Haiti Earthquake.

a) Physical planning
In Haiti, the urbanisation rate was very high which resulted in a population density of more than 300 people per square
kilometre putting massive pressure on land and overcrowded conditions. Meagre income (GDP was put at 2$ per capita in
2009), lack of space and unclear land tenure further consolidated low housing quality. Also, the construction sector in Haiti
was under rapid and unregulated development before the earthquake. It thus can be established that neither the location of
dwellings nor the various construction methods were considerate of multiple risks like earthquakes [2]. In this regard, it is
complicated to conclude that Haiti’s planning measures that make it apt for the prevention/mitigation stage were adequate or
even tolerable.

b) Engineering & construction (infrastructures)

The aftermath of the devastating earthquake has revealed that there is almost a complete absence of seismic detailing in
construction. Seismic design is missing from the engineering curriculum in Haiti. It also appears there is a lack of building
code and engineers who want to use systems use the French code (Beton Arme aux Etats Limites (BAEL)) which ironically
does not have seismic design provisions [12]. Despite the existence of laws on building permits and inspections, they were
hardly implemented. The majority of the buildings were constructed in non-ductile concrete, unreinforced masonry, and
unconfined masonry which are all inadequate for earthquake-prone areas. Making matters worse is the utilisation of poor
quality materials, poor workmanship, poor maintenance, and use of corrosive materials all resulting in the bad performance in
case of the occurrence of the earthquake as it was evident [12].
Almost all the building in Haiti were mostly brittle and weak and not designed for earthquakes. Although many buildings
were standing, nearly all did poorly [12]. All these steps show that the DRR regarding mitigation was almost non-existent
before the 2010 earthquake.

c) Socioeconomic situations
Haiti’s education was insufficient in this aspect. It was reflected by the unfamiliarity of residents of potential future
hazards. Even engineers in Haiti were not educated on seismic designs [12]. In regards to education and awareness,
environmental education was part of the curriculum and paves for inclusion to the DRR; however, it is not yet included. There
are NGOs involved in bringing awareness of disaster risks and the DRR to the public and schools in certain areas [16]. Though
all these were promising activities, their significance is questionable considering the early stages they were on before the
earthquake in question and the significant impact of the earthquake which was not precisely of exceptional magnitude. It was
only after the 2010 earthquake that Haiti started training seismologists and installing seismometers [21]. Hence, expertise and
research were not a priority in Haiti at that time, although it could have helped in prevention and mitigation.
Haiti’s economy could hardly accommodate all these necessities. The country was riddled with chronic poverty with
65% of its population under the international poverty line and ad-hoc urbanisation [11]. It diverted the focus from preparation
for a disaster (that was predicted to come hindering necessary action for overcoming the possible catastrophic effects of
catastrophe) than of daily survival.

d) Management & institutions

It can be safely assumed that Haiti’s sectoral laws contain provisions relevant to disaster risk management, but it cannot

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be concluded that these were fairly implemented. Economic constraints have hindered the growth of institutional structures
proposed under law especially at municipal and local levels [16]. The National Risk and Disaster Management Plan and the
Emergency Response Plan which are Haiti’s key national documents governing the disaster risk management system have
only been in place since 2001. Though insignificant progress was made for the first few years after their introduction, Haiti
had made progress in this regard since 2005 with development and installation of structures at all levels of government [16].
Haiti had no organised assessment team to assess various aspects of a disaster. It was also reflected in the lack of data on
previous disasters which would have been beneficial in avoiding uncontrollable confusion once a disaster has happened [7]. It
was also explained in the lack of a backup plan which was evident when various facilities were destroyed by the earthquake
C. Possible Progression of Safety among Two Case Study Areas
From our analysis, we now come to what we see as opportunities for change. These opportunities have been
conceptualised from the situation as it is now and as it has been shaped post-disaster. We see several opportunities for change
we would like to address to make Aceh and Haiti of today more resilient towards future disasters. We have come up with two
solutions, one from a more technical perspective and one from a more social perspective. To better explain our solutions and
why we think they are essential, we are using the ‘progression of safety’ or release aspect from the PAR model. The release
aspect of the Pressure and Release (PAR) model is utilised here to forward recommendations to achieve safety and thus,
resilience. The analysis for progression of safety is done based on the findings of the PAR on the progression of safety as
already mentioned and is depicted in Figure 4 below.
The occurrence of the Aceh Tsunami and Haiti Earthquake resolved problems as the opposite role with the progression
of vulnerability. It just started from how to achieve safe conditions as the answer of vulnerable circumstances, for instances
improving the physical environment, local economy and social relations, as well as public action. As a result, it can decrease
dynamic pressures and try to encourage the development of several sectors and also manage the policies and practices. In the
last phase, the progression of safety would address to deal with root causes such as the democratisation of governance,
development in the international community and the prevention of most critical locations from hazards. On the other side, by
using the PAR model from safety progression, it clear that risks can be reduced by several actions.

Progression of Safety Case Study 1 (Aceh Tsunami) Case Study 2 (Haiti Earthquake)
Achieve safe Physical environment: Physical environment:
conditions • Resilient buildings and infrastructures • Develop and use seismic building codes
• Develop barriers • Change lands use planning
Local economy and social relations: Local economy and social relations:
• Organised fishing • Diversify income opportunities
• Strengthen livelihoods • Strengthen livelihoods
• Traditional knowledge to identify tsunami Public actions:
Public actions: • Improve disaster preparedness through schools and
• Improve disaster preparedness through schools and increase local capacity
increase local capacity
Reduce pressures Development of: Development of:
• Training and education • Training and education
• Build back better • Adequate infrastructures and public institutions
• Adequate infrastructures and public institutions • Ethical standard in public life
Policies and practices: Policies and practices:
• Develop disaster management policy for tsunami and • Disaster management governmental structure
other disasters • Enhance framework for facilitation and regulation of
international aid
Address root causes Social and political: Social and political:
• New organisations • Democratization of governance
• Increase the access of vulnerable groups to resources and • Accesses of vulnerable groups to resources and
structures structures
• Managing the conflict Economic:
Economic: • Develop voice in international community
• NGOs/donor to support livelihoods Natural:
• Market availability • Avoid most critical locations
• Create buffer zone
• Avoid dangerous places
Reduce hazard Range of measures to reduce certain hazards Range of measures to reduce certain hazards


After analysing two case studies affected by great disasters, there are certain similarities and differences from those case
studies. It is clear that both cases have similar situations before big disasters happened, such as conflicts. Also, both Haiti and
Aceh suffered Low economic levels worsening the impacts of calamities. Collapsed and instability of governance was also
deemed as a significant problem before disasters. Besides, International assistance and aid as the response were needed from
two case studies. Besides similarities, historical situations in Aceh have differences with Haiti. After disasters, Aceh received

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more aid and international assistance than Haiti. Besides, political change in Aceh was getting better, rather than in Haiti. The
national meeting to reduce the tensions of conflicts were done in Aceh. Haiti suffered more collapsed after earthquakes.
However, the implementation of the framework in this study contains several limitations. The framework is unable to
quantify the contribution of each factors affecting disaster. Somehow it is tough for policymakers to decide the policy without
quantification scales. Some severe implications have been shown as the impact of the uncertainties in knowledge concerning
how vulnerability is explained underlying causes or pressures. In practice, the lack of understanding and uncertainties impacted
the decision makers and also the policy as they suffered the scarce resources. Furthermore, the condition may address the
pressures and unsafe conditions without the contribution from both social causes of vulnerability as well as the more distant
root causes.
Finally, this study could Increase awareness among local people. It is because the historical problems delivering from the
framework are closely related to the community’s issues. Previously, before the disaster happened, local people were often not
aware of their activities triggering the disaster. By explaining the root causes of unsafe situations, they may have more reasons
to believe. Furthermore, this study is also essential for policymakers to decide the possible measures.


The use of the PAR framework has revealed critical information regarding the historical components leading to disasters.
It is clear that the case study areas suffered worse impacts of catastrophe due to their specific historical situations. The
December 2004 tsunami was devastating for the province of Aceh. The high level of victims and damage were done to society
was not only due to the unique nature of the tsunami but that three decades of conflict between the GAM and the Indonesian
state significantly hampered Aceh’s resilience. Its effects could be seen in both technical and societal aspects as physical
infrastructure, livelihoods and local economy were all weakened. The 2010 earthquake in Haiti is known more from the
catastrophic devastation it brought about. This unmatched devastation can be accounted mostly to the nation’s vulnerability.
Haiti’s vulnerability has been propagating for centuries now. It has its roots causes in international powers which Haiti could
not compete with and ultimately the poor governance which has been the characteristic of the country after its independence
in the early 19th century. These factors resulted in segregated society distinguished by poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition and so
on that; all contributed to the building up of the country’s vulnerability.
Finally, the findings of this study could have strong contributions for policymakers to analyse the triggering factors of
disasters as well as to decrease the impact of the disaster itself by employing the progression of safety and recommendation
after the disaster happened. It is clear that post-disaster situations often created the opportunity to change.

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(NUS). Asia research institute (ARI).
Gaillard, J.C., Clavé, E., Vibert, O., Denain, J.C., Efendi, Y., Grancher, D., Liamzon, C.C., Sari, D.R. and Setiawan, R., 2008. Ethnic groups’ response to
the 26 December 2004 earthquake and tsunami in Aceh, Indonesia. Natural Hazards, 47(1), pp.17-38.
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Designing a model to display the relation between social vulnerability

and anthropogenic risk of wildfires in Galicia, Spain
Diego, J. de,1 Rúa, A.,2 and Fernández, M.3
University Institute of Studies on Migration, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid, Spain
Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid, Spain
University Institute of Studies on Migration, ICAI School of Engineering, Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Madrid, Spain
Abstract—Since the beginning of the 21st century, most of the forest fires that occur in Spain have taken place in the northern
region of Galicia. This area represents 5.8% of the Spanish territory, but compromises, in certain years, up to 50% of the total
number of wildfires. Current research on forest fires is focuses mostly on physical or meteorological characteristics, post-fire
situations and their potential destructive capacities (main areas burned, type of vegetation, economic loses, etc). However,
academic research does not delve into other socio-economic factors (population structure, density, livestock farms, education,
among others), which compromise the existing pre-fire situation in the affected territories, and subsequently reflect a prevailing
vulnerability of the population. Indeed, these socioeconomic variables can influence fire occurrence, whether positively or
negatively. To fill in this knowledge gap, this article analyzes the relationship between wildfire events and the socio-economic
variables that characterize the Galician municipalities affected. To that effect, first, a thorough examination and selection of
the most relevant socioeconomic variables, and the subsequent justification will be carried out. Then, using IBM SPSS statistics
24, a linear regression is executed using the data of wildfires that occurred in Galicia between 2001 and 2015. The resulting
model allows better knowledge of the importance of the socioeconomic situation in Galician municipalities when wildfires
occur. Therefore, this result identifies the existing relationship between the socioeconomic variables and wildfire events and,
consequently, will help to optimize the interventions that must be done. This may be the best way to carry out prevention
actions in order to reduce vulnerability to forest fires.
Keywords—socioeconomic variables, Spain, Galicia, wildfires, multiple linear regression


F OREST fires are natural disasters that are mostly associated with countries that have specific climatic characteristics and
fire-prone vegetation. Spain is on the list of countries annually affected by these events, including the USA and Australia.
Although it is true that forest fires have a natural component that makes them necessary within the ecological cycle of certain
ecosystems, on many occasions, anthropogenic factors affecting terrain, climatology or existing populations, alter the natural
patterns of fires. In fact, variables such as unequal social and economic structure, where class, ethnicity, sex and poverty factor
in, are very relevant for determining and predicting the wildfires occurrence.
In Spain, the Autonomous Community of Galicia has been the Spanish region with the highest number of forest fires so
far in the 21st century. According to specialized studies, forest fires in Galicia relate directly to a mixture of socioeconomic
factors (such as population ageing or low population density among with low economic development) and natural or
environmental factors (such as extensive livestock farming, abandoned areas or urban-forest interface areas).
The aim of this article is to establish the relationship between the socioeconomic aspects that reflect the reality of Galician
municipalities and the number of forest fires that have occurred between 2001 and 2015, and to know which variables carry
the greatest weight. A multiple linear regression model, estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, was used to
perform this analysis. The observational unit was the municipalities, since it was the smallest unit of information related to
wildfires; in addition, it is the minimum territorial unit for which precise and uniform socioeconomic information exists. With
the obtained data, a clear difference can be observed between the North and the South of the region. While in the North aspects
of economic nature can be weighed more heavily, in the South the social and population aspects stand out. This analysis offers
action guidelines for the authorities in matters of prevention and awareness.
Within the population and social variables, the population ageing is a cause of a greater number of fires. Also noteworthy
is the density: where this is lower, there are more wildfires, due to an abandonment of the territory. The two variables as a
whole, reflect that depressed areas present a greater number of wildfires. In these areas there is also a greater number of
foreigners with less resources and lower incomes. In addition, there is a reduction in the cadastral value that leads to the
abandonment of the land, which again favors the number of wildfires.
All these factors mean that forest fires, year after year, continue occurring in Galicia and the measures taken do not seem
to be enough for a problem of this magnitude. The situation described in Galicia reinforces the objective of investigating the
connection between socioeconomic variables and forest fires in Galicia and, specifically, to find out which variables have the
greatest weight.


Forest fires are natural disasters that are mostly associated with countries that have specific climatic characteristics and
fire-prone vegetation. Spain is situated within the list of countries annually affected by these events, which includes the US
and Australia. Thus, in the United States forest fires have increased their size and destructive potential (Ager et al, 2017).
Meanwhile, in Australia, in the last century, grassland fires have been the fourth risk associated with catastrophes, after
heatwaves (Haynes et al, 2010). Even though it is considered as a natural disaster, the origin of forest fires is usually human

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cause, around 96% in the case of Spain (Hernandez, 2016).

While it is true that forest fires are a natural component and necessary within the ecological cycle of certain ecosystems,
often, anthropogenic causes affecting the land, the weather or existing populations alter natural fire patterns. This may modify
the negative effects of a fire so much that the positive consequences that could contribute to the ecosystem are bypassed
(Bentley and Penman, 2017).
Current research on forest fires mostly focus on physical or meteorological characteristics, post-fire situations and their
potential destructive capacities (main areas burned, type of vegetation, economic losses, etc.). However, academic research do
not delve into other socioeconomic factors (population structure, density, livestock farms, education, among others), that
configure the existing pre-fire situation in the affected territories, and subsequently reflect a prevailing population
vulnerability. Taking into account the characteristics of the existing population, therefore, is crucial within the research on
forest fires (Padilla y Vega-García, 2011).
This perspective is taken from firefighting, which has emphasized post-fire actions, without giving priority to prevention
efforts and action before a wildfire (Kocher and Butsic, 2017). Therefore, as a fundamental aspect in prevention, it is necessary
to know the aspects that influence the characteristics of social groups in environments where fires occur, to reduce impacts
and occurrence of forest fires (Murphy, 2005). Take into account the characteristics of the existing population, therefore, it is
crucial in research on forest fires (Padilla, 2011).
The socioeconomic characteristics of a person or a group of people influence their ability to anticipate, cope with, resist
and recover from the impact of a natural disaster (Wisner et al, 2004). Within these traits issues, unequal social and economic
structure is incorporated, where class, ethnicity, gender and poverty are related (Morrow, 1999). These are very important
socioeconomic variables to determine and predict the occurrence of forest fires, considering that the recovery will be very
different depending on the vulnerable group affected by a disaster (Paveglio et al, 2016).
Social groups that have certain characteristics of social vulnerability are those that have a higher risk of suffering the
effects of a disaster (Cirella et al, 2016). If they are in this situation, it is easier to suffer scenarios that increase their negative
characteristics (Fogel, 2017). Within a natural disaster, come into play certain social, economic and political processes, and
therefore, actions should emphasize in people´s characteristics. This reinforces the idea of studying the population’s
peculiarities in the analysis of forest fire risk and not just look at the post disaster effects (Alonso, 2002).
What makes a natural event a disaster is determined by the territory and the population in the exposed areas.
Social characteristics vary among provinces, municipalities, cities, classes, etc. Demarcate risks seems complicated
because of this variability. (Del Moral and Pita, 2002). Socioeconomic dimensions of a disaster are numerous and
can be classified as follows (Birkmann, 2013):
 Social and population dimension: Consisting of aspects of justice, social differences and social organization and individual
strengths. Some studies also take into account issues such as poverty, social marginalization, demographics (age vulnerable
groups), education, health and welfare, migration and risk perception (Donner and Rodriguez, 2008). The factors that
determine this dimension are influenced by specific conditions and very different development processes, depending on
the country or region where we are and the kind of danger we face (Bergstrand et al, 2015).
 Economic dimension: Consisting of aspects of occupation, income, economic effects, consume, property and savings
(Ashe et al, 2009). In this dimension, there is also housing and habitability issues. Also take account of livelihood, which
may be an aspect to consider in cases where it is based on a single sector (agriculture, fisheries, etc.) (Elliott and Pais,
 Environmental or territorial dimension: Even though the environment is the source of the natural processes that can cause
a disaster, it is at the same time, an important resource for people who have a high hazard exposure (Molina et al, 2017).
This dimension is related environmental destruction effects that cause changes in the natural environment at different scales
(melting, destruction of natural barriers in coasts, emissions, etc.) (Iyalomhe, 2011). Therefore, this dimension examines
both the dependence of populations of certain environmental services such as the susceptibility of these environmental
services to certain hazards (Sharma and Pant 2017).
Vulnerable social groups that exist in the localities are primarily involved in forest fires. Different roles may exist and can be
divided into (Ballart et al, 2016):
 Vulnerable to fire danger: Is considered any individual or element to be affected by a wildfire.
 Generators of fire risk: They are the source of fire hazard by inappropriate use of the forest, traditional practices, negligence,
 Relievers of fire risk: Individuals who consider the natural environment and specifically the forest environment is
considered vital.
Yet, what role does society play in forest fires? The responsiveness of citizens in an emergency depend largely on the
conception taking risk. This also affects support for forest management policies and actions carried out by the emergency
services. In general, fires are perceived as a catastrophic and random element, and generally speaking, this perception can be
divided into two distinct assessments, but they may occur simultaneously. These two are summarized as (Ballart et al, 2016):
 The fire as a threat to fight: occurs in areas where there is a close relationship between urban and natural environment. In
this case, the perception is negative because there is a sense of danger associated with fire and also adverse effects are
considered as a loss of quality of land, vegetation, forest landscape, etc.
 Fire as a land management tool: This perception is common in mountain areas and rural areas with a presence of an

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agricultural and livestock sector. This view can lead to the expansion of small fires and can cause forest fires of greater
intensity and extent.
Human factors as a cause of forest fires are very relevant in Mediterranean Europe and specifically in Spain (Martinez-
Fernandez et al, 2013). One of the most important characteristic is its randomness. Therefore, it seems so difficult to predict
the behavior of a fire, as well as where and when will begin (Paveglio et al, 2018).
Changes in climate that are currently producing, as well as changes in land use, are unfavorable aspects for forest fire risk
reduction in Spain, as they influence the occurrence and intensity. An increase in episodes that exceed the capabilities of
extinguishing devices is expected to become a national emergency. (Moreno, 2014).
Although wildfires, in some cases, may be favorable for biodiversity and ecological characteristics of a given area, this
can have huge economic and social costs (Crompton et al, 2010). In recent years, these costs have increased considerably in
the intermediate zones between urban and forestry (Bouillon et al, 2014). Recent studies show a positive correlation between
fire prevention spending and the presence of private land and buildings (Stein et al, 2013). This type of land is predominant in
northern Spain, where there are large numbers of smallholdings. Specifically the autonomous community of Galicia stands out
as a forest fires benchmark in Europe. However, this is not the only negative socioeconomic characteristic present in this
community. Therefore, is necessary to inquire into the reality that characterizes Galicia.


Recent decades, Data shows that, in Spain, the autonomous community of Galicia (Map 1) has the highest rate of fires
(Balsa and Hermosilla, 2013). The objective of this paper is to establish the relationship between socioeconomic aspects that
reflect the reality of the Galician municipalities and the number of forest fires from 2001 to 2015, which is the most recent fire
data available. The first step is to establish the relevant socioeconomic variables available. In this sense, knowing the status of
the issue and the most important aspects that reflect the social vulnerability of a country is paramount before selecting the

Map 1. Situation of Galicia (Red)

Galicia has been the Spanish autonomous community most affected by forest fires (Loureiro and Barreal, 2015). This
region has taken, since the beginning of the century, most of the events with these characteristics produced in Spain. Has been
one of the regions with most affected hectares (ha). This can be seen in the Nature Data Bank statistics (figure 1), where it is
seen a comparison between Galicia and Spain about ha burned and number of wildfires, showing the weight that these disasters
have had on his community. In addition, recent reports show that fire seasons are lengthening and within Europe, Northern
Spain and Portugal, are the most critical areas. (San-Miguel-Ayanz et al, 2018).

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250,000 30,000




0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Burn ha G Burn ha E Wildfires G Wildfires E

Figure 1. Relation between Galicia (G) and Spain (E). 2001(1)-2015(15). Burn ha and number of wildfires.
Source: Own Elaboration from Nature Data Bank

Fires in Galicia have weighed significantly in Spain´s general statistics. There are certain years when you can note that,
both the number of wildfires occurred and burned ha in Galicia compose more than 50% of Spanish fire disasters (Figure 2).
You can also see that the number of fires has decreased, but burned ha follow a cyclical nature and its mean is constant. Forest
fires are known as one of the most important environmental problems in Galicia (Balsa and Hermosilla 2013). They entail a
far-reaching impact for the economic sector and cause greater risks for people and ecosystems, all linked to public spending
(WWF, 2016).








1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
% Burn ha G % Number of wildfires G

Figure 2. Burn ha and number of wildfires in Galicia in relation to Spain. 2001(1)-2015(15).

Source: Own Elaboration from Nature Data Bank

According specialized studies (Barreal et al, 2011), forest fires in Galicia are directly related to a mixture of
socioeconomic factors and natural or environmental factors, which can be considered well-known and predictable, but typically
exceed the capabilities of extinction means. The most decisive territorial factors are (COSE, 2015):
 Poor land management: Galicia is one of the regions with the highest plant production and growth in Spain. Galician
territories, due to a lack of forest management have been increasing their areas with highly flammable shrubs and trees,
also joined to the agricultural land and livestock abandonment.
 Extended livestock farming: Livestock owners make use of abandoned forest land. To acquire grass, small fires are made
and the danger of causing a huge wildfire is high.
 Wastelands: They are characterized as industrial parks, residential and suburban areas of cities and towns, where shrub
land and waste are mixed. They are not considered forest areas, but, however, are areas where the work of extinguishing
media is very intense.
 Wildland-urban interface areas: Considered spaces where the surroundings of homes, neighborhoods and urbanizations,

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are embedded in adjacent forest areas with green spaces. These are considered high risk areas because here the occurrence
and negligence in fire management multiplies. There are large numbers of population centers with these characteristics and
higher risk of fires (Galiana, 2012)
 Fire as a tool: Although there are permits for controlled burns, this practice is widespread in Galicia, both residues and
forest scrub. This practice is very common in depressed and aged areas.
The above territorial factors bound to the predominant types of land in Galicia, influence in fire data. These lands are
mostly private ownership (97.26%). Within these private lands the 32.77% is shared management and the rest is other
undetermined private ownership, where many are abandoned or neglected (Sineiro, 2006). The number of forest owners,
according to the Galicia Forest Plan is above 650,000 and the average plot size is 2-3 ha, demonstrating the important forest
properties division in Galicia (PLADIGA, 2018).
Moreover, the large agriculture abandoned areas and the lack of land management in forest production have an important
market niche, while combating desertification and rural mountain management is favored. Ignorance of the most elementary
rules of forest logic and lack of adequate environmental education, produce a strong mismatch between demands and social
behavior. The cause of forest fires in Galicia relates directly to archaic habits in depressed areas and negligent use of fire as a
management tool (Balsa and Hermosilla, 2013). There is a lack of knowledge about such disasters, a lack of awareness and
forest culture and, obviously, economic interests associated with livestock and agricultural uses, which are at odds with land
and forest management (COSE, 2015). In the long term, these imbalances cause an increase in forest fires further degradation
of natural areas (Vilariño, 1998).
Galicia is one of the rural communities that have lost more population, with -9.2 % decrease compared to 2008. The rural
depopulation is one of the major problems in Spain and in particular Galicia, where is considered a demographic and territorial
phenomenon. The fall in absolute terms of the number of habitants results from a negative vegetative growth. (CES, 2018)
But there are other critical points that are related to the population desertification of rural areas, such as an aging
population or so low population density that doesn’t permit economic development. However, imbalances in age and gender
structures may be to blame (Balsa and Hermosilla 2013).
Rural masculinization occurs at young ages, due to a predominantly female migration, also due to lack of equal productive
work and reproductive work, which results in a search of a higher educational level and job opportunities associated with
urban areas (Ballart et al, 2016).
The low density presents common problems associated, such as aging, geographical isolation, lack of spatial integration
with other adjacent areas, bad connection and difficulty in transport, lack of adequate social services, lower levels of human
capital and employment opportunities. All this inevitably leads to economic decline (Bergstrand et al, 2015).
The impact of human resource losses, lack of territory development and the inability to maintain economic activities, is
not only economic, there are also patrimonial and environmental impacts (Balsa and Hermosilla, 2013). With regard to
environmental effects, abandonment of livestock and traditional agricultural uses, represents a risk factor for natural
environment conservation. This is because landscape transformations occur without control and forest land management
associated with rural areas are located mostly within individual plots (Wigtil et al, 2016).
The decline in extensive livestock farming has suffered in Spain (around 30% between 2004 and 2015), it is considered
an aggravating factor of forest fires (CES, 2018). This had an impact on the forest landscape, favoring the mosaics and reducing
fuel in the mountains of Galicia (Rigueiro et al, 2002).
The progressive abandonment of rural areas can be considered negative in the medium term, as the environmental effects,
such as soil loss and exposure to erosive phenomena in large areas is extensive (Loureiro and Barreal 2015). In addition, a lack
of forest land management occurs, increasing the risk of fire. In Galicia there are traditional burning activities and traditional
use of fire in mountain management, which can lead to an increased fire occurrence (CES, 2018).
All these factors ensure that forest fires continue to occur year after year in Galicia and the measures taken seem to be not
enough for a problem of this magnitude. The situation described in Galicia, reinforces the aim of investigating the relationship
between socioeconomic variables and forest fires in Galicia and specifically know which variables are those that have greater

As explained above, the main objective of this work is to establish the relationship between socioeconomic aspects that
reflect the reality of the Galician municipalities and the number of forest fires during 2001 and 2015.
To analyze this relationship is needed, first, a quality data set corresponding to Galician wildfires. Previous studies have
established various time horizons: 2001-2006 (Barreal et al, 2011), 2001-2009 (Barreal et al, 2012), 2006 (Balsa and
Hermosilla, 2013) and 2001-2010 (Loureiro and Barreal, 2015). In this sense, as information was available, it was decided to
extend the time horizon of research, selecting the updated data spanning from 2001 to 2015. It has been established the
observational unit at the municipal level to have as accurately as possible, allowing display territory differences (Barreal et al,
2011) and is also the minimum territorial unit which exists accurate and consistent socioeconomic information.
Fire data used were obtained from the Nature Data Bank, which has extensive information on fires in Spain. The data
were separate into municipalities, and we had to choose which variables were more suitable for research, as burned Has, type
of terrain, etc. Afterwards Galician municipalities socioeconomics data were joined, obtained from the IGE (Galician Statistics
To establish the relationship between the occurrence of wildfires and the socioeconomic variables, the variables above

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described were considered (density, aging population, type of terrain, etc.), and may observe the actual effect of these data
over wildfires, neglecting environmental issues. This was like this because in the case of number of wildfires, the
environmental impact, like temperature, wind and humidity is not as critical as in the case of burned ha (Barreal et al, 2011).
Socioeconomic data were related to the Galician municipalities, so the number of fires and burned ha, were pooled along
with Galicia socioeconomic data from each municipality. These data were adjusted to fifteen years by the mean and median
of every year for selected variables. Subsequently, they were adapted to avoid very large paths, positive asymmetries or not
constant marginal variations, and so they were more representative and comparable, making different transformations or ratios
with variables such as municipal ha or population size. How has it mentioned above (Birkmann, 2013), the variables can be
grouped into dimensions: social and population, economic and environmental or territorial. The following socioeconomic
variables (Table 1) were obtained:


Dimension Variables Min. Max. Average Deviation Description

Population>64 76,91 51034,37 1932,85 4554,10 Population over 64 years

Density ,03 64,61 1,44 4,26145 Number of people per Has
I.replacement 72,34 585,26 179,83 68,03 Relation among the population between 60 and 64 years old and
the population between 15 and 19 years old. Measures the

capacity of a population to replace the individuals who are

I.Masculinity 83,09 129,83 96,78 5,89 Relation between the number of men and women in a given
population. 72,40 177,34 118,78 19,43 Relation among the population between 40 and 64 years old and
the population between 15 and 39 years old
P.Foreign ,00 2,22 ,03 ,15 Proportion between foreign population and total population
ParcelVal ,08 9,23 1,03 ,87 value of the plots in thousands of euros divided by the number
of people registered in the Real Estate Cadastre
DisCenter ,00 116,00 4,81 11,17 Buildings and dwellings of a singular entity that cannot be

included in the concept of nucleus divided between the set of

towns with less ten buildings, which are forming streets, squares
or other urban roads.
RusticHa ,47 1,00 ,95 ,07 Rustic Has by municipality
Ranch ,00 ,05 ,01 ,01 Number of livestock farms per municipality
Livestock 4,853 25032,06 3050,26 4501,22 Number of cattle heads per municipality
IncCap 5915,88 18777,41 10368,81 1722,46 Gross Income per habitant
Debthab ,00 ,81 ,19 ,17 Balance of the debt that the town councils have contracted with

the bank, at a certain date. The debt of the town councils was
introduced dividing it among the inhabitants of each
municipality, so that it would be more representative of the
weight of each territory.
GDP 2680,62 7168155,94 176090,10 616411,74 Gross Domestic Product
Source: Own elaboration from IGE

To analyze the socioeconomic variables influence in the number of wildfires in Galicia between 2001 and 2015, a model
of multiple linear regression estimated by ordinary least squares (OLS) method was used. The observational unit was
municipalities since it was the smallest unit of information on forest fires; also is the minimum territorial unit where there is
accurate and consistent socioeconomic information.
The model was carried out for all municipalities of Galicia and later in the municipalities of each province separately, in
order to analyze the structural stability of the model. To determine if there were differences between provinces chow test was
executed (Fisher, 1970) for the Northern region (A Coruña and Lugo) and Southern Region (Ourense and Pontevedra) and the
same test within each region to compare each pair of provinces. The results are the following:
General Model:
The null hypotheses is that there is structural stability between North and South Galicia, the Chow contrast of a structural
difference from North and South yielded a value of the statistic test. F (15, 284) = 7.20223 p value 0.0000, so null hypothesis
is REJECTED and therefore exists structural difference between the North and South. We proceed to see if there are structural
differences within the North provinces (A Coruña and Lugo) and South provinces (Ourense and Pontevedra):
1. North Model:
Chow contrast for structural difference in North Model
F (15, 130) = 1.32671 p 0.1952 value
Not reject the null hypothesis therefore no structural difference between the two northern provinces
2. South Model:
Chow contrast for structural difference in South Model
F (15, 124) = 0.948374 p value 0.5135
Not reject the null hypothesis therefore no structural difference between the two southern provinces

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Moreover, to solve heteroscedasticity problems presented in the model, robust standard deviations were used. To avoid other
problems (variables with large range of variation and / or skewness to the right, or not constant marginal effects) logarithms
were taken when it was necessary.


Model specification to explain the impact of the selected variables in the number of wildfires occurred in Galician
municipalities, between 2001 and 2015 is:
Number of Wildfires = β0+ β1LnPopulation>64 + β2LnDensity + β3 IncCap + β4I.Masculinity
+β + β6LnP.Foreign + β7LnParcelVal + β8LnDisCenter
+β9LnRanch + β10LnRusticHa + β11LnGDP + β12LnLivestock
+β13I.replacement +β14LnDebtHab + ɛ
The obtained results for each model are shown in Table 2:

Dependent Variable: Number of Wildfires
Independent Variables General Model North Model South Model

Coefficients p value Coefficients p value Coefficients p value

(β) (β) (β)
Constant −931. 816 0.002 −1207.57 0.000 −1750.38 0.000
LnPopulation>64 189.671*** 0.000 132.692*** 0.000 273.830*** 0.000
LnDensity −212.140*** 0.000 −19.9101 0.573 −273.462*** 0.000
IncCap −0.0584683*** 0.000 −0.0394832*** 0.000 −0.0223893 0.264

I.Masculinity 5.68822** 0.010 1.71407 0.369 13.1212*** 0.000 −3.11713* 0.051 −1.26194 0.384 −3.55956* 0.079
LnP.Foreign 53.7118*** 0.002 −12.8223 0.291 50.9607 0.121

LnParcelVal −60.4937*** 0.001 4.24432 0.850 −36.5176 0.194

LnDisCenter −30.7492*** 0.001 −14.9480* 0.063 15.6403 0.379
LnRanch 35.4466 0.138 −21.3153 0.527 33.6097 0.158

LnRusticHa −275.325 0.119 95.0943 0.659 −223.834 0.114

LnGDP 52.6489 0.119 46.6009** 0.011 −17.6842 0.766
LnLivestock −2.94676 0.846 27.7159 0.194 10.2266 0.546

I.replacement 0.108139 0.714 −0.0719371 0.863 −0.207825 0.523

LnDebtHab 27.3305 0.676 47.9772 0.549 −2.70796 0.972

R2 0,421 ,547 0,501

Sample size 314 160 154

Table 2 shows the three models, one for all Galicia and the other where models of the North of Galicia and the South of
Galicia are represented. Thus, you can see the differences in significance for each different model.
R2 of the models can be considered representative because a high predictive ability of the dependent variable in the
General, North and South models is achieved (42.1%, 54.7% and 50.1% respectively). Therefore, the number of forest wildfires
in Galicia has high relationship with the socioeconomic variables that characterize the municipalities of this community, as
estimated models together are significant.
The only one variable that keeps the significance at 1% in the three models is the "population over 64 year age, ", so it is
one of the most explanatory variables of forest fires in Galicia.
The variables "population density" and "gross income per capita", are also significant at 1% for two of the models posed
(South and General model in the case of the "population density" and North and General model in the case of “gross income
per capita ").
The "index of masculinity", meanwhile, it is significant at 1% in southern model, and 5% for the model of all Galicia.
The "proportion of the assessed value by cadastral holder", the "proportion of scattered / core" and the "proportion of
foreign" are only significant at 1% in the case of all Galicia, the "proportion of scattered / core" is 10%, in North model.
If you look at the coefficients (β) sign, the relations, direct or inverse, with the dependent variable, "number of wildfires",
is the same for all three models and are explained as follows:
 Is an inverse relationship in "Density", "gross income per capita," the "rate structure active population", the "rate able
value per holder" and "proportion of scattered / cores", indicating that a lower value of these variables, the greater number
of wildfires occur. In the case of "index structure of the workforce", if the value decreases, it means more aged population.

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In the case of property value, if decreases, demonstrate that the plots are less valuable. In the case of the ratio of scattered
/cores, if the value decreases are fewer scattered and means more wildfires, which is related to the fields of forestry urban
interface associated with population centers.
 The relationship is direct to "population over 64 years," which clearly shows that there are more wildfires in aged
populations that are associated with traditions and cultural burning elements, lower level of education and in particular,
the highest vulnerability. These areas also have a higher "masculinity index" since there been an historical female
abandonment of rural areas, and this results in lower population density. Note the relation with the foreign population that
could be explained by regarding their more interaction with highly vulnerable areas with lower incomes, precarious
services, exclusion areas, etc. Positive GDP ratio (higher GDP, means more wildfires) can be explained by the existence
of a larger number of urban cores. This means higher municipality richness so, therefore, the existence of more forestry-
urban interface, more likely to wildfires.
With the obtained data can first observe a clear difference between North and South. This shows that the actions carried
out must be different depending on the municipality where we want to influence. While in the north can be considered more
economic aspects, in the south it is necessary to incur on the social and demographic aspects. This does not mean that the
whole present community problems cannot be solved with community activities.
Within the population and social variables, highlights the aging population as a cause of more fires. It also highlights the
density: where this is lower, more wildfires occur because of an abandonment of the territory. The two variables together
reflect that depressed areas, with higher aging rates have more number of wildfires. In these areas there is also a greater number
of foreigners with fewer resources and lower incomes. In addition, a reduction in the cadastral value involved an abandonment
of land, which favors the number of fires again.

The object of this paper is to establish the relationship between socioeconomic aspects that reflect the reality of the
Galician municipalities and the number of forest fires between 2001 and 2015. The ultimate goal of our work is to identify
those socioeconomic issues for achieving a greater impact on prevention actions.
At this point, the most explanatory variables in our model are aged population and low density; Community actions of
the competent authorities should take into account the negative connotation of both variables on the intervention action
planning. This is difficult in the short term but, a greater impact on improving rural life quality in this areas, predictably would
alter these variables positively towards their relation to forest fires. By promoting the participation and improvement of the
education, the variables that influence the occurrence of wildfires can be modify, changing beliefs and activities linked to aged
populations with lower levels of education. The need to establish models of sustainable development is detected, taking into
account the social aspects that stand out as a cause of forest wildfires.
Due to the dimensions related to the territory, the use of biomass has been carried out in Galicia, but we must ensure the
criteria that guarantee their sustainability. Avoiding ground affections and competition with other sectors such as livestock and
agriculture is also able to give value to the forest. This increases the cadastral value and, as shown by the results, the influence
over the occurrence of wildfires. We must find synergy with other measures such as agroforestry mosaics systems, together
with holdings investments. All this leads to a quality improvement of life in rural areas, finally influencing in variables such
as population density and income per capita. Giving value to the forest changes the perception people have of forest resources
and therefore can reduce wildfires.
Looking not lose the forest value, a priority is to increase spending on prevention and elaborate strategies for it. You also
need to restore damaged areas to prevent further deterioration subsequent adverse environmental conditions. It is the most
efficient way to maintain economic, social and environmental functions of an area, trying to emphasize before the occurrence
of an event. By including social variables as a cause of the wildfires, you can insist on reducing these. It is important to
emphasize on the variables that are meaningful and carry out actions designed for their reduction, such as managing the
wildland-urban interface areas, which are related to variables such as the ratio scattered / cores and GDP. It is also important
to improve working conditions for women in rural areas, thus reducing the masculinity index and, therefore, increasing
population density.
The works carried out on prevention and extinction are responsibility of public institutions. Policies are focused on the
central government for basic legislation, but there is a transfer to the autonomous communities of these tasks. It is necessary
to involve local bodies for better management of natural hazards and specifically for forest wildfires, taking into account the
socioeconomic variables that affect each. Therefore, it is important to establish the differences between existing social groups
in a given area, and thus know the exposure and risk involved, and make these social groups know, so you are improving
education. As it is seen throughout the study, is important to take into account the differences between northern and southern
Galicia, working on the most important variables in each area. This ensures that the actions are more efficient and a better
result against wildfires.
Changes should be medium-long term, where an exchange between different populations is promoted and simultaneously
can affect certain harmful traditional behaviors associated with aging societies. This would improve turnover rate workforce
and demographic structure. One of the great challenges is to establish unity among all the factors involved in a wildfire, from
prevention to extinction, understanding their behavior and minimizing its effects.
The relevance of the results to establish a relationship between socioeconomic variables and the number of wildfires must
be considered by the technical and policymakers. Is not only necessary to act on climate, environmental and natural issues,

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when it comes to reducing the risk of occurrence, actions must affect all aspects that influence. They must develop strategies
that are complementary to prevention efforts where these variables representing social vulnerability (as aspects of exclusion,
low income or aging) are mitigated. Research shows this relationship and therefore present a problem shown in society. Its
severity can be reduced through strategies and policies that will have their effect in the long and medium term.
In short, we demonstrated the influence of social characteristics in the production of wildfire. Therefore, working on these
issues, you can also make a difference in the occurrence of anthropogenic wildfires.


The main limitation of the research is related to the data. Some very important variables in the socioeconomic sphere have
not been selected because of the difficulty obtaining them at the municipal level. In addition, it is very difficult to obtain
prevention and extinction spending data, even making a request to different Galician agencies. We should also mention that
another limitation comes from the inability of the model to predict indirect relationships between variables, although this leads
us directly into the future course of our investigation.
In order to deepen the relations established between socioeconomic variables and forest fires a structural equation model
(SEM) will be elaborated, which is a multivariate statistical technique for testing and estimating causal relationships from
statistical data and assumptions will be drawn qualitative on causality, developing different constructs by the data. The
behaviors of the variables in the linear regression deserve to be studied more precisely. It is necessary to establish the intensity
of relations, direction and more importantly, establish direct and indirect correlations between variables, in order to create
constructs. These constructs will be composed of interrelated variables, like economical, climatological, environmental or
social. We propose a more precise way to study social vulnerability and its effect on forest fires, and investigate if reducing
vulnerability in all its components can reduce the risk of wildfire more efficiently.

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Internet based survey on energy use and evaluation, including

household machinery and climate impacts
Farkas, A.,1 and Mika, J.2
National University of Public Service, Budapest, Hungary
Eszterhazy Karoly University, Eger, Hungary
Abstract—Three sets of questions selected from an internet-based survey are presented, related to energy utilisation. The 831
responses, obtained in May-September 2016, answered to over one hundred questions. Altogether 34 questions are analysed.
Representativity of the survey is enhanced by stratified sampling, considering the number of inhabitants in the settlement. Four
strata are established: small settlements (below 5,000 inhabitants), medium settlements (5,000 – 50,000), cities in Hungary
(50,000 – 1 million) and Budapest (over 1 million inhabitants). The stratified sampling means that the averages of the given
strata are multiplied by the frequency of the same strata over the country as established by the Central Statistical Office of the
country. As concerns the household equipment, number of cellular phones television, other kitchen equipment, lap-top PC-s
and vacuum-cleaners are over 1 piece / family. Number of gas-cookers is by 50% more than that of electric cookers. From
among the energy sources, the renewable ones are assessed the highest, with 4.77 from the maximum possible 5.00. Energy
use and CO2 emission by the living houses are also assessed over 4.0. Nuclear and fossil energy sources are negatively assessed
(3.05 and 2.82. in average). The most feared consequences of climate change in Hungary are connected with water
management. E.g. the nation-wide water management strategy should be re-considered (4.22), or many plants can be produced
with irrigation, only (4.17). Direct impact on more energy for cooling (4.07) and less energy for heating (3.11) appear rather
asymmetrically. In addition to the above results, energy related aspects of the UN SDG are considered in the first part of the
Keywords—renewable energy, climate change, public survey, stratified sampling, SDG (2016-2030)


E NVIRONMENTAL safety is one of our basic rights which can be achieved by protecting the environment and smart utilisation
of our resources. The changing climate and extremes of weather often warn us on timeliness and hardness of the problem.
The recent UN Sustainable Development Goals (2016-2030) collected 17 Goals and 169 targets serving materials for wide
considerations. In the present paper we provide some thoughts on energy consumption and renewable energy in Section 2.
The key elements of the paper are, however, the questions and answers which were obtained based on 831 responses for
an Internet-based questionnaire containing 107 questions. This methodology and the results are presented in Section 3. Possible
utilisation of these results are briefly outlined by Section 4.

II. THE SDG (2016-2030) ON ENERGY

A. The UN document
The United Nations accepted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development including 17 Sustainable Development Goals
(SDG, 2015) including 169 more detailed targets. These goals spread over all environmental, social and economic aspects of
sustainability, all over the world. In September 2015 the United Nations (UN) accepted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development (SDG) for 2016-2030, including 17 Goals including 169 detailed Targets. This latter document is in the focus of
the present Section.
The aim of the paper is to provide information on the targets related to renewable energy sources, chosen as a possible
example to serve as a field where the related targets can be exposed. Many other foci could have been selected, but this topic,
the renewable energy sources are characterised by three features that make this aspect appealing: renewable energies are (i)
fast developing, (ii) future oriented by saving the environment and (iii) they represent relatively new pieces of knowledge, so
contemporary information should not fight with older learning.
The 17 established Goals are not ordered into any logical structure. Even the colouring of the logo-s does not help in
establishing any intention to classify the Goals, though it would be rather useful in memorizing and understanding the goals.
Hence, a trial is made to classify the goals keeping their original numbering in Table 1.


Group of Goals Numbered Goals

“2. End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture.”
Basic human “3. Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages.”
needs “6. Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all.”
“7. Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.”
“1. End poverty in all its forms everywhere. “
Equality and “4. Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all.”
justice “5. Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls in their social role.”
“10. Reduce inequality within and among countries.”

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“8. Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all.”
Efficient, sustainable “9. Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation.”
economy “12. Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns.”
“13.* Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.*”
„11. Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable.
Protecting vulnerable “14. Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources for sustainable development.
environments “15. Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification,
and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss.”
Cooperation towards “16. Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective,
common goals accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels.”
“17. Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development.”
Acknowledging that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is the primary international, intergovernmental forum for negotiating the
global response to climate change.

The SDG were recommended as a document reflecting the important 5P for mankind: people, planet, prosperity, peace,
partnership (SDG, 2015: p. 2). These concepts, however, do not really accompany the document. The first two groups of our
classification, the basic needs (No. 2, 3, 6 and 7) and the equity group (No. 1, 4, 5 and 10) deal really with people. The next
two groups, the production (No. 8, 9, 12 and 13) and the zones in danger (No. 11, 14 and 15) fit to prosperity and planet, but
peace and partnership are related to the smallest group, cooperation (No. 16-17).
The majority of the Targets contain quantitative objectives, mostly related to 2030. Their number is 126. A minority of
the Targets points at organisation needs as preconditions of the objective targets, encountering 43 such Targets. As a rule, the
quantitative targets are marked by numbers, and the latter ones by letters.
Let us remark, that there is one Goal which is problematic to select into any of the groups. This is Goal 13. Climate action,
since climate change is the only environmental problem which is tackled as a separate Goal in the SDG (2016-2030). All other
problems, like reduction of biodiversity, ozone depletion, etc. are considered in other goals as their effects on the vulnerable
spheres or on the human health. It could also be kept as an individual group with one single Goal. Another remark is that this
Goal refers to the Paris Agreement (2015) which deals with several aspects of climate change, not mentioned by this Goal.

B. Synergy and conflicts of renewable energy with other targets

This sub-section describes which goals and targets are related to renewable energy sources. The first sub-section includes
the two goals that support the use of renewable energy sources. In contrast, there are two goals which can conflict with this
objective. Finally, the third sub-section will contain the targets indirectly related to renewable energy sources. The three
subsections will only include quantitatively measurable targets.

a) Synergistic targets
Table 2 lists the two goals demonstrating obvious synergy with renewable energy sources, as well as their specific targets.
With respect to renewable energy, the three most important goals are universal access, increasing the share of renewable
energy, and doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (i.e. achieving the same result by using less energy).
Uniquely, for Goal 13, the “number.number”-type targets are also general in nature. Strengthening adaptive capacity,
integrating climate change measures into national strategies, and the single target regarding improving education and
institutional capacity are all prerequisites to non-defined target states.

7.1 “By 2030, ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services”

7.2 “By 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix”
7.3 “By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency”
13.1 “Strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate related hazards and natural disasters in all countries”
13.2 “Integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies, and planning”
“Improve education, awareness raising and human and institutional capacity on climate change mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction, and
early warning”

b) Conflicting targets
Another two goals, specifically ending hunger (Goal 2) and protecting terrestrial ecosystems (Goal 15), may conflict with
the renewed growth in bio-fuels. In both cases, there is a single specific target that can potentially conflict with the use of these
types of fuel (Table 3). Any given plot of land, can only be used simultaneously for food and energy source production if the
plant in question is edible (target 2.3). It is possible that terrestrial ecosystems do not become a source of conflict. If production
does not grow faster than the natural growth rate, and if the desire for rapid growth does not stress the natural forest ecosystems,
even when taking climate change into account, then this source of conflict can be avoided (target 15.2).

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“By 2030, double the agricultural productivity and the incomes of small-scale food producers, in particular women, indigenous people, family
2.3 farmers, pastoralists and fishers, including through secure and equal access to land, other productive resources and inputs, knowledge, financial
services, markets, and opportunities for value addition and non-farm employment”

15.2 “By 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests, and increase
afforestation and reforestation globally”

C. Education of and by sustainability

Possible educational aspects related to the SDG do not directly follow from their content, but four aspects can be
recommended as possible ways of using SDG and related knowledge for teaching of and by sustainability. These aspects are
as follows:
(i) The SDG (2016-2030) are worth knowing for all pupils of ca. 15 years or elder as long term tasks for everyone on this
Globe. One can use these goals and targets to emphasise relative development of a given country or region presenting
national sustainability indicators.
(ii) Especially in higher education it might be useful to collect the related targets to a given wider topic, e.g. as it has been
done above for renewable energy sources. In this respect, renewable energy is just a possible field to specify the rather
wide set of SDG. For this, motivated audience it is also worth demonstrating how the concrete “number.number” targets
are mutually connected with the background and pre-condition type “number.letter” type targets.
(iii) It is useful to apply the SDG-s also for counteracting the often experienced rather selective topical selection among the
various problems by the public media. Some problems are over-emphasised by the various channels and home-pages,
whereas others are not represented at all. Having consequently rising all the problems for the adult or younger audience,
these problems might be adequately weighted. Furthermore, the teachers should also be active in preparation to introduce
the SDG or their selected topics for the given group of pupils, since the written targets themselves are not interesting
enough to attract their attention. Hence, proper illustrations of global or national character should be found by the
teachers, as well.
(iv) Finally, the SDG-related statements and examples are suitable for supporting selected topics of school-subjects. E.g.
trigonometric functions in mathematics can be demonstrated by solar collectors, i.e. one kind of renewable energy
sources. Steepness of the surface in geography can be illustrated by availability of water energy. Photosynthesis in biology
and fermentation in chemistry are clearly connected to bio-energy. Another possibility is improvement of the key
competences. Application of the above illustrations can themselves be used to improve Mathematical Competence and
Competences in Natural Science and Technology. The Digital and the Foreign language competences can be developed
by asking the pupils to search the appropriate targets in a given topic. Similarly, Communication in the Mother Tongue
together with their Learning to Learn competences can be improved simply by understanding and memorizing the goals
and targets. Social and Civic Competences may be developed by personal participation in some related voluntary
activities concerning e.g. poverty. This is how sustainability is not only an important topic to be educated, but also a
useful contributor to reach other aims of education.


A. Methodology
The Internet based questionnaire had been launched in May 2016 and the answers were collected until the end of
September in the same year. 831 responses were received answering the 107 questions on the list. Representativity of the
samples is enhanced by stratified sampling based on six different aspects (Table 4). This means that the averages calculated
for each stratum are weighted by the nation-wide true proportions, published by the Central Statistical Office, as related to the
year 2016. These aspects are (i) sex of the responders, (ii) location in the country, (iii) settlement size, (iv) age of the responders,
(v) number of people in one household and (vi) highest education of responders.
Stratification Strata Percentages
Sex (2 strata) man : woman 52 : 48 %
Location in the country (3) West : Central : East 26 : 52: 22 %
Settlement size (4) <5,000 : 5,000 – 50,000 : 50,000 -1 million : ˃1 million 15:29:27:29%
Age in years (5) <30: 30-40: 40-50: 50-60: ˃60 7 :18:32:25:18%
People in one household (5) 1:2:3:4:≥5 13:29:23:20:14%
Highest education (6) ≤8 yrs: techn. coll.: sec. school: college: university: PhD 4:11:7:34:38:6%

In the following sub-sections, the responses to the 107 questions are briefly presented in the following topical groups:
• Data on households and lifestyles (32 questions)
• Opinions on the environment (12 questions)
• Opinions on air pollution and energy (15 questions)
• Opinions on the reasons and the impacts of climate change (22 questions)
• Opinions on the environmental safety (26 questions)

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B. Results on the households

Number of mobile phones was 1-2 per household. Number of TV-sets, laptop computers, vacuum cleaners and the other
kitchen machines is also over 1 piece per household. Nearly one Internet availability, washing machines, kitchen robots,
microwave ovens, toasters, desktop computers and other, non-kitchen devices are found in a household. Much more families
are equipped with gas cooker than with electric cooker.
Main component of the family budgets is food consumption (40%). Much less (10-20%) can be spent on summer vacation,
car fuels and redemption of housing debts. Nearly ten percent of the budget, or less is used for week-end and cultural programs,
car debts and winter skiing vacation.
Both groups contained by Figure 1 indicate that the financial situation of the responders was not special concerning the
general conditions over the country.

Electric oven

Tablet computer

Water boiler Car debt redemption


Printer Cultural programs


Desktop computer
Week-end programs
Microwave oven

Other non kitchen…

Hausing debt redemption
Kitchen robot

Washing machine
Car fuels
Internet availability


Laptop Summer vacation

Other kitchen device

TV Food
Mobile phone

0 1 2 0 10 20 30 40 50
Figure 1. (left) Availability of household machines stratified according to location in the country; (right) Distribution of family costs stratified according to
the sex of the responders, proportioned from 67.7% to 100%.

C. Results on environmental problems

The responders evaluate those environmental services with the highest marks which are perceived directly. They are e.g.
drinking water supply, waste collection, wastewater treatment and selective waste collection. From the dangers littering and
pollution by the enterprises are felt as most unpleasant ones, but climate change and pollution of the cities remains not by
much behind. Somewhat smaller marks are given for noise, ozone hole, acid rains and overpopulation of the cities.
Evaluation of these general environmental questions depend on the question put before the answer (Figure 2). Asking just
about the problems in question generally, the received by 0.5-1.0 (i.e. by 10-20%) higher values than in case of the questions
on the role of the same problems as factors of the responders’ everyday life. The average difference is 0.68 in this respect.
Evaluation of responses to the softer question indicate that the responders are highly sensitive to the exposed
environmental questions. Even the lowest evaluations are near or above 4.0.

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Overpopulated cities
Acid rains
Question II.
Ozone hole
Question I. Noise
Urban air pollution
Climate change
Pollution by enetrprises
Selective waste treatment
Waste water treatment
Communal waste collection
Drinking water supply

0 1 2 3 4 5

Figure 2. Importance of selected environmental problems judged in response to two different questions. Question I. How important are the following
environmental problems for you? Question II. How much do the following problems affect your life? (Stratification according to the sex of responders).

D. Results on air pollution and energy

Sources of air pollution are mostly seen in the polluting materials emitted by the enterprises, in or everyday CO2 emission
and the communal wastes by the responders (Figure 3). Somewhat smaller, but still around 4.0 are the importance of urban
overpopulation, the climate change (which is not a reason but a consequence) and the anachronistic heating systems of flats.
Much less important are the ozone hole (a consequence of the pollution, again) and the animal ordure.

Ordure from animals

Ozone hole

Anachronistic heating of flats

Climate change

Overpopulated cities

Public waste

Every day CO2 emission

Pollution by enterprises

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5

Figure 3. Evaluation of various forms of air pollution (Stratified according to education).

The renewable energy sources received the highest (almost 5.0) evaluation among the energy sources. whereas the worst
numbers (nearly 3.0) were given to nuclear and fossil energy forms (Figure 4). These evaluations are obviously driven by
environmental considerations not by those motivated by reality of energy feasibility. Energy consumption and CO2-emisson
of the living houses are highly evaluated (over 4.0), as well. Questions related to nuclear energy are evaluated in strange
manner: high energy dependence is connected with the lack of nuclear plant, but no change in CO2-concentration is assumed

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for this case, whereas misunderstood air-quality changes are reported.

Fossil energy (coal, oil, gas)

Air quality without nuclear
Nuclear energy
CO2 emision without nuclear
CO2 emission by houses
Energy dependence without nuclear
Energy use of houses
Renewable energy (solar, bio, geo)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Figure 4. Evaluation of the different energy sources (Stratification according to the sex of responders.).

E. Results on climate change

Highly ranked are the carbon-dioxide emission among possible reasons of climate change. This evaluation is correctly
much higher than those for internal processes of the Earth or solar activity. Deforestation is higher marked than its real danger,
but evaluation of animal husbandry and agriculture are evaluated nearly according their real contribution. One should note that
besides he scientifically correct terms for reasons of climate change, high ranks are given to less defined terms, as
irresponsibility or public, as well.
Impacts of climate change related to water supply are ranked slightly higher than those related to plant production or
energy demands. But, the difference between “re-considering or water management” and “less energy is needed for heating”
is only slightly over 1.0. This reflects the high mental sensitivity of the responders to all potential changes of climate change.
Both above features are demonstrated below in Figure 5.

Solar activity
Natiral processes of Earth
Animals, agriculture
CO2 reaching the air
Fossil fuel burning
Human irresponsibility
0 1 2 3 4 5

Less heating in winter

More energy used in households

Increasing food prices

More expensive field cultivation

Water reservoirs to be built

More energy for air conditioning

Re-considering the water management

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Figure 5. (upper) Evaluation on potential reasons of climate change according to highest education stratification; (lower) Evaluation on various impacts of
climate change according to stratification based on location within the country.

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F. Results on environmental safety

Responders consider the lack of clean water, energy and healthy food not of high risk, but air ad environment pollution
are evaluated over 4.0. Migration and overpopulation meant low risk in the time of the survey (Figure 6). In case of another
15 problems it is established that the evaluations depend on the compilation of the question even if they were of similar
meaning after first reading.

Movement of people
Safe energy supply
Terrorism, war
Occurrece of illnesses
Clean water scarcity
Healthy food scarcity
Increasing environmental pollution
Air pollution

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5

Ordure from animals

Decaying plant components
Decaying soil components
Littering of streets
Nuclear energy
Overpopulation of cities Q I. - Q II.
Anachronistic heating of flats
Question II.
Acid rains
Public waste Question I.
Ozone hole
Air pollution of cities
Everyday CO2 emission
Pollution by enterprises
Climate change
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Figure 6. (upper) Evaluation of environmental safety factors, according to stratification based on the sex of the responders; (lower) Evaluation of
environmental safety problems in response to two different questions, Question I. “To what extent mean risk and threat the followings?” Question II. “To
what extent influence the followings your feeling being in safety?”

G. General and specific differences among the sample strata

Women are more sensitive concerning state of the environment in almost all particular aspects analysed. This means
higher evaluation of their importance by women than by men. At the same time, responders with high education mark the risks
less than those finished just technical college (Figure 7).
Besides these general differences among the strata, we could rarely stablish large monotonous differences among the
strata averages. One such difference is the increasing number of computer printers in the household with the increasing age of
the responders. The other plausible difference is that evaluation of urban pollution gets higher with the increasing number of
inhabitants. (Figure 8).

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Selective waste management Public waste

5 3.8

4.5 3.3

4 2.8

Figure 7. (left) Characteristic difference between environment sensitivity of men and women; (right) Characteristic decrease in evaluation of the problems
by responders with high education. The categories of axis X: man (“férfi”) – woman (“nő”); below 8 years in school, technical college, secondary school,
college, university, person with scientific degree.

Printer Air pollution of large cities

1.2 4

0.8 3.5

0.4 3
30 alatt 30-40 40-50 50-60 60

Figure 8. (left) Unique difference in frequency of printer sin the family with increase of the age of responders; (right): Unique difference in evaluation of
urban air pollution according to the settlement size. The categories of axis X: for the ages, below (“alatt”) above (“fölött”); for the inhabitants below 5,000,
5,000 - 50,000, 50,000 - 1 million, above 1 million.


In English we use policy and politics, where the latter is highly evaluated by the parties in a democracy. In order to
convince the parties to work for policy, as well it is important to know what the potential voters think about the various policy
The results of the survey, presented just briefly based on a larger study, may serve as factual basis of such bridge between
policy and politics, reflecting what people think about energy, climate, pollution, as well, as on environmental safety and

This study was supported by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH), Project No. K 116595 and
this support is gratefully acknowledged here.

SDG (2016-2030). United Nations Resolution A/RES/70/1 of 25 September 2015. The Goals are listed in par. 51. Available Online:

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Economic Valuation of the Reef Attributes of Cozumel Island

Lara-Pulido, J.A.,1 Mojica, Á.,2 Bruner, A.,3 Simon, C.,4 Vázquez-Lavin, F.,5 Guevara-Sanginés, A.,6 and
Infanzón, M.J.7
Instituto de Investigaciones para el Desarrollo con Equidad (EQUIDE), Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de México
Independent Consultant
Conservation Strategy Fund (CSF)
Independent Consultant
Facultad de Economía y Negocios, Universidad del Desarrollo, Chile
Departamento de Economía, Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de México
Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de México
Abstract—This paper studies the economic value of transparency, biodiversity, and congestion in the reef of Cozumel Island.
The methodology used was a choice experiment of 750 representative surveys of the different types of tourists that dives in
the Cozumel reef. It was found that visitants are willing to pay 1,826 pesos (USD 101) to avoid a decrease from a high to
medium level of biodiversity and 1,226 (USD 68) to prevent the opacity of the reef. The results are not conclusive in levels of
congestion. These results are relevant in terms of public policy since they exceed the current cost of the tours offered on the
site and by far the rates of the government dedicated to conservation. Therefore, there is a large margin to obtain economic
resources that can be dedicated to the conservation of the reef.
Keywords—choice experiment, contingent valuation, ecosystem services


T HE island of Cozumel is located at the east of the Yucatan Peninsula. According to the World Resources Institute, it has
an approximate distance of 81 kilometers of reef part of the Mesoamerican Reef System (MBRS), as well as 3,654 hectares
protected at the federal level (CONANP-GIZ, 2017).
Cozumel is an attractive center for tourists, mainly those from cruise ships. Each year, it receives approximately 3 million
visitors; source of important revenues, but also of important pressures on the reefs. It is estimated that the tourist load capacity
is exceeded, which is detrimental to the health of the ecosystem (Segrado Pavón, Arroyo Arcos, Amador Soriano, Palma
Polanco, & Serrano Barquín, 2015). Further, although the current state of conservation is high, if the current level of visitation
is maintained and no investment in conservation is done, it can be significantly affected in coming years. Therefore, the
following study aims to explore funding and financing options by determining the payment availability of visitors to preserve
the conservation status of the reef.

Figure 1. Cozumel Island. Source: Author´s own elaboration with information of the Millennium Coral Reef Mapping Project de IMaRS/USF y IRD.

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The willingness to pay for desirable attributes of the Cozumel reef was estimated by a choice experiment. This method
has been widely used in recent years to analyze preferences on goods and services that do not have a market, in particular, to
estimate the economic value of ecosystem goods and services (Holmes, Adamowicz, & Carlsson, 2017).
In this article, the attributes of biodiversity, transparency, and congestion were analyzed. Their selection followed by a
literature review in which the most important attributes for reef users were identified. For example, (Williams & Polunin,
2000) identify that the variety of coral and fish species and their abundance are the most important attributes for them. (Polak
& Shashar, 2013) find that divers prefer fish diversity more than their affluence. (Pabel & Coghlan, 2011) notice that
experienced divers have a greater preference for marine life diversity, underwater beauty, and coral aspect. Similarly,
(Pendleton, 1994) encounter that quality is important to explain visitation to dive sites.
From this review it was initially proposed as attributes to be analyzed: fish diversity and abundance, reef quality,
congestion, the presence of charismatic species, coral surface extension, protected area´s size, and access fees. This first
proposal of attributes was derived from the previously mentioned studies and also from other studies that have analyzed the
recreational use of reefs, namely, (Sorice, Oh, & Ditton, 2005), (Gazzani & Marinova), (Carlson, 2015), (Tawfik & Turner,
2010), (Rolfe & Windle), (Grafeld et al., 2016), (Börger, Hattam, Burdon, Atkins, & Austen, 2014) and (van Beukering et al.,

Figure 2. Example of an attribute choice card, of which the respondent has to indicate his preference for option A, B, or C. Source: Author´s own

Subsequently, to reduce the number of attributes to be analyzed (a large number of attributes make the design and
application of the data collection instrument more complex), it was decided to conserve only the attributes generically named

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biodiversity, transparency, congestion, and tariffs. The biodiversity attribute refers to both abundance and diversity of species,
transparency is a proxy for reef quality, congestion alludes to the number of people diving in a certain place and time, and
tariffs advert to the additional cost that the user has to pay to obtain a certain level of characteristics.
Biodiversity Transparency Congestion Tariff (MXN pesos) Decision set Alternative Block
Low Low Moderately 100 1 A 2
High High Highly 150 1 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 1 Base 2
High Medium Highly 100 2 A 2
Medium High A little 1700 2 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 2 Base 2
Medium Medium Moderately 0 3 A 2
Low High Highly 200 3 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 3 Base 2
High Medium A little 200 4 A 1
Low Low Highly 110 4 B 1
Low Low Highly 0 4 Base 1
Low Low A little 800 5 A 2
Medium High Moderately 2000 5 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 5 Base 2
Low High Moderately 2000 6 A 2
High Low Highly 500 6 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 6 Base 2
Medium Medium Highly 800 7 A 1
High High A little 1400 7 B 1
Low Low Highly 0 7 Base 1
High Medium Moderately 100 8 A 2
Medium High A little 110 8 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 8 Base 2
High High Moderately 800 9 A 2
Medium Medium A little 150 9 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 9 Base 2
Medium High A little 500 10 A 1
High Low Moderately 110 10 B 1
Low Low Highly 0 10 Base 1
Medium Medium Highly 500 11 A 1
High Low Moderately 1700 11 B 1
Low Low Highly 0 11 Base 1
Low High Moderately 1400 12 A 1
Medium Low Highly 150 12 B 1
Low Low Highly 0 12 Base 1
Low Medium A little 2000 13 A 1
Medium Low Moderately 200 13 B 1
Low Low Highly 0 13 Base 1
High High Highly 2000 14 A 1
Low Low A little 100 14 B 1
Low Low Highly 0 14 Base 1
Low Medium Highly 150 15 A 1
Medium Low Moderately 1700 15 B 1
Low Low Highly 0 15 Base 1
Low Medium Moderately 500 16 A 2
High Low A little 1400 16 B 2
Low Low Highly 0 16 Base 2
Source: Author´s own elaboration.

These attributes also need to be 1) understandable for the interviewees and avoid the use of relatively specialized terms
(e.g. the structure of the coral), and 2) directly related to their experience of the use of the reef. Therefore, drawings were
chosen to represent the attributes to be analyzed (figure 2). For the attributes of biodiversity, transparency, and congestion, we
defined three levels (high, medium and low), and for tariffs ten levels were specified (from 0 to 2,000 pesos or 114 USD). This
range was determined from a pilot test (N = 70) with a maximum fee of 3,000 pesos (171 USD), where people were not willing
to accept rates above this 2,000.
A choice experiment requires to establish the number of attributes –which is three in our case—, the levels of each attribute
–three for the attributes of biodiversity, transparency, and congestion, and ten for tariff—, the number of decision sets, and the

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number of alternatives in each decision set. For the last requirements, 16 decision sets and 3 alternatives were selected for each
respondent. The number of decision sets could be divided into blocks if it is very high. Thus, we considered 2 blocks (with 8
choice sets each), to facilitate the implementation of the instrument (Johnson et al., 2013).
DCREATE of Stata was used to design alternatives for each of the 16 choice sets (8 for each block), with the possibility
of creating dominant combinations which will always be answered by the respondent. The process of designing, reviewing
and modifying dominant alternatives was repeated 50 times and in each iteration, the D-efficiency of the design was evaluated.
(Kuhfeld, 2005) indicates that the D-efficiency is a relative measure and it must be compared between different designs in the
same situation, with the same attributes and levels. The final design has a D-efficiency of 89%, which was the highest, then,
the more acceptable (the maximum value is 100%). The final design is presented in table 1. As it was commented one 50% of
the sample answered the questions of block 1, the other one, block 2. The size of the sample was determined by the formula
of (de Bekker-Grob, Donkers, Jonker, & Stolk, 2015):
𝑞 −1
𝑁>( ) ∙ (Φ (1 − ))
𝑟𝑝𝑎12 2

Where 𝑁 is the size of the sample, p the probability of the population choosing an alternative, and 𝑞 = 1 − 𝑝, 𝑟 is the number
of decision sets, 𝛼1 the allowed deviation from the true proportion of the population and 𝛼2 the level of significance. Since we
do not have a previous estimation of the proportion of the population, we assumed maximum variance (i.e. 𝑝 = 0.5). In
addition, the following values were considered for the required parameters: 𝑟 = 16; 𝛼1 = 0.03; 𝛼2 = 0.03, obtaining 𝑁 >
It should be noted that there are two main visitors: (i) hikers and (ii) tourists. Hikers do not stay overnight in Cozumel,
like cruise passengers and people staying at Playa del Carmen and Cancún (two beach destinations very close to Cozumel).
Tourists, on the other hand, stay more than one night in Cozumel. Therefore, it was decided to double the size of the sample
to it be representative of both types. The total number of interviewees was 750, of which 740 were complet. The surveys were
conducted in the month of June 2016. The survey was applied at strategic points on the island (airport, ferry dock, cruise pier,
central plaza, and dive shops), with the necessary permissions, obtaining a good mix of both national and foreign visitors, with
diverse sociodemographic characteristics.


From the 740 complete interviews, it is observed (Table 2) that 59% of the respondents spend the night in Cozumel, and
68% did diving or snorkeling activities. The average age of the sample is 36 years and its average monthly income of Mexican
visitors is 13,092 pesos and 143,076 pesos for foreigners.
According to the Intercensal Survey 2015 (Inegi, 2015), the average age in Mexico is 31 years; which is consistent with
the average age of the sample if only Mexican visitors (33 years) are contemplated. Also, the women in the Mexican sample
are 49.5%, which is slightly lower than the national percentage (51.4%). However, the average income became somewhat
lower than the one reported in the National Household Income-Expenditure Survey of Mexico (Inegi, 2016), which reports an
income of 15,507 pesos per month. Still, it should be noted that the ENIGH estimations consider current income from property
rental and other transfers, so it is possible that the estimate obtained from the sample is underestimated. If only work income
is considered, the ENIGH reports a monthly income of 9,968 per household, which is 30% lower.
As well, there is a significant difference between the estimation obtained in the Mexican sample of 14.4 years and the
national average of 9.2 (Inegi, 2015). This difference is consistent with the income estimation.1 In addition, the divergence is
similar to the user’s profile reported by (Torruco & González-Solis, 2015), whom describe the socio-economic characteristics
of the beach tourism in Quintana Roo.
Variable Unit Obs Mean Desv. Est. Min Max
Tourist Percentage 740 0.59 0.49 0 1
Visits Number 740 2.49 4.29 1 50
Stay in Cozumel Days 740 5.79 21.06 1 360
Trip duration Days 740 10.97 41.51 1 730
Includes diving or snorkeling Percentage 740 0.68 0.47 0 1
Diver Percentage 740 0.33 0.47 0 1
Congestion Perception Negative=-1, 740 -0.65 0.63 -1 1
Ambiental Org. Percentage 740 0.13 0.33 0 1
Dependants Number 738 2.14 1.53 0 21
Age Years 739 36.23 13.63 13 74
Women Percentage 740 0.46 0.50 0 1
Schooling years Years 740 14.71 2.45 0 18
Income (mexicans) Pesos/month 206 13,092.72 12,820.4 2000 48000

Considering the results of returns to education reported by (Ordaz, 2007), the difference between the years of schooling of the sample and the national
average would explain 62% of the difference in income, which is similar to the difference between national income (only for work) and that of the sample

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Income (foreigners) Pesos/month 294 143,076.00 92592.47 15416.67 308333.3

Married Percentage 723 0.49 0.50 0 1
Work Percentage 740 0.70 0.46 0 1
Source: Author´s own elaboration.

Given the results showed in table 2, we consider that the sample obtained is representative and, therefore, it constitutes a
good base to make statistical inferences about its availability to pay for the attributes of the reef. This willingness to pay is
modeled after estimating the probability of a person choosing an alternative in a given situation.
It is based on the Random Utility Model, which assumes that a person will choose a certain alternative if he obtains a
level of satisfaction (utility) greater than the rest of the eligible alternatives. Formally this is stated in equation (1).

𝑉𝑖𝑘 > 𝑉𝑗𝑘 ; ∀𝑗 ∈ 𝐶 (1)

Where 𝑉 represents the (indirect) utility associated with the alternative i obtained by the individual k and compared with the
rest of the alternatives j that belong to the set of possible alternatives C (Holmes et al., 2017). Generally, it is assumed that
indirect utility is a function of a vector of characteristics associated with alternative i and an independent error term. This is
shown in equation (2).

𝑉𝑖𝑘 = 𝑣𝑖𝑘 (𝑍𝑖 ) + 𝜖𝑖𝑘 (2)

With this approach, what is estimated is the probability that the utility of alternative i is greater than the probability of the other
alternatives j, as shown in (3).

𝑃𝑖𝑘 = 𝑃[𝜖𝑖𝑘 − 𝜖𝑗𝑘 > 𝑣𝑗𝑘 (𝑍𝑗 ) − 𝑣𝑖𝑘 (𝑍𝑖 ); ∀𝑗 ∈ 𝐶] (3)

Probability is generally estimated assuming that the errors have an extreme value distribution of Type I (Holmes et al., 2017).
If this is the case, then it is possible to specify a logistic model. There are basically 4 types of logistic models: (i) conditional
logit, (ii) multinomial logit, (iii) mixed logit, and (iv) latent class model (Greene & Hensher, 2003; Hoffman & Duncan, 1988).
The fundamental difference between these models is the type of variables that are included in the estimation. The conditional
logit includes those that vary by alternative j, the multinomial those that vary by individual, and the mixed include both. In the
conditional logit, you get a unique coefficient per variable (for example, the price of the alternative); in the multinomial logit
you get a different coefficient for each alternative (for example, the effect in each alternative for years of schooling); therefore,
in the mixed logit both types of coefficients are obtained according to its variability (by individual or alternative).
The conditional and multinomial models rest on the assumption of Irrelevant Alternatives Independence (IIA), which has been
found to have important limitations (Greene & Hensher, 2003). Essentially, it assumes that the probability of alternative A and
B remains unchanged even though a third alternative C exists or not. Empirically, it has been found that this assumption does
not hold. Therefore, alternative models have been developed that relax these assumptions.

The choice experiment resulted from conditional logit (CL) and mixed logit (MXL) models are presented in Table 3.
When considering ordinal variables, it is necessary to create a dummy variable per option, in that order, a dummy biodiv1 was
created for the preference low (level 1), biodiv2 for medium (2) level, biodiv3 for high (3) level, and so for each attribute.
Since there must be a comparable status, level 1 for each characteristic would not appear in the results. In the next table, it can
be seen that
Variables Coeff. WTP (mxn pesos)

price -0.00057***
bioidiv2 1.41945***
1,267.98 (51%)
Difference to reach the next level (0.08)
biodiv3 2.14220***
transp2 1.14452***
482.93 (24%)
Difference to reach the next level (0.07)
transp3 1.41979***
conges2 1.04522***
281.47 (15%)
Difference to reach the next level (0.07)

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conges3 1.20566***

/l11 1.41894***
/l21 1.790903***
/l31 0.1208421
/l41 0.219204**
/l51 -0.1094796
/l61 -0.1510235
/l22 0.9220006***
/l32 -0.1276243
/l42 0.3896606***
/l52 0.262837**
/l62 0.5100787***
/l33 0.4265998***
/l43 0.2301323***
/l53 -0.2337573**
/l63 -0.2054548
/l44 0.4957321*
/l54 0.2301323*
/l64 -0.0133953
/l55 0.3654689***
/l65 0.9234847***
/l66 -0.2618142*

LR chi2(21) 619.09
Log-likelihood -4609.5616
Observations 17,760

Note: *** significant at 1% level; standard deviations are in parentheses.

Source: Author’s own elaboration.

As it can be seen, each attribute level is significant al 1% level. Each willingness to pay answer accordingly to its marginal
utility in which to reach a higher level in each attribute, visitants are willing to pay more. In that way, for biodiversity, the
willingness to pay is the uppermost ($2,490.26 for the second level, $3,758.24 for the third level), as well as its marginal value
to reach the highest lever from the medium one ($1,267.98). However, if we consider that the greater the congestion, the worse
the quality and service offered, the results of the congestion attribute are incomprehensible, since they show a willingness to
pay for a more congested reef. For further comprehension, a Latent Class (LC) model was defined.
To define the number of classes, first the model was run for two classes, then three, then four and so on. However, when
trying to run the model with seven classes the convergence could not be reached nor were there enough observations to finish
its estimations. Consequently, the five models were evaluated based on their Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), which the
lower, the better. Thence, a model with six classes was chosen with a BIC of 9419.4599, the smallest of all. The results of each
class are as follow:

Variable Class 1 Class 2 Class 3 Class 4 Class 5 Class 6
price 0.00000 -0.00168*** -0.00064*** -0.00154*** 0.00003 0.00099
(0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00)
bioidiv2 2.95003*** 4.98665*** -0.27809 1.55917*** 0.25331 3.40956***

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(0.24) (0.20) (0.18) (0.26) (0.17) (1.14)

biodiv3 1.74257*** 1.02734*** 0.97032*** 1.47843*** 0.56067*** 4.77671***
(0.21) (0.37) (0.13) (0.34) (0.12) (1.08)
transp2 -0.05489 3.28181*** 1.82310*** 1.29292*** 0.43510*** -1.54390*
(0.22) (0.39) (0.23) (0.25) (0.13) (0.86)
transp3 3.96608*** 10.64420 1.00312*** 1.51372*** -0.03056 2.67593**
(0.35) . (0.15) (0.38) (0.18) (1.06)
conges2 2.56828*** 2.19867*** 1.63656*** 0.92824*** 0.13278 6.47892***
(0.32) (0.35) (0.22) (0.26) (0.18) (1.39)
conges3 -0.77990** 7.21965*** 2.63032*** 1.35756*** 0.08475 -1.18940
(0.37) (0.35) (0.28) (0.35) (0.17) (0.93)

Share1 Share2 Share3 Share4 Share5

_cons 1.586826 .8584248 1.377695 1.017244 1.111402
(0.32) (0.33) (0.35) (0.35 (0.36)
Note: *** significant at 1% level; ** significant at 5% level; * significant at 10% level; standard deviations are in parentheses.
Source: Author’s own elaboration.

The price estimations for choice one, five and six were not statistically significant; therefore, there is no form to calculate the
willingness to pay (WTP) of 64.56% of the sample (sample proportion by class in Table 5 accordingly to its maximum
probability of belonging). This percentage includes mainly people who do not take the survey seriously, thus their results were
not coherent.
Class 1 2 3 4 5 6
Frequency 732 4,082 740 1,472 6,294 4,440
Percentage 4.12% 22.98% 4.17% 8.29% 35.44% 25.00%
Source: Author’s own elaboration.

However, for the rest of the classes, we calculate the willingness to pay. In Table 6, the same problem for congestion
appear, people are willing to pay for a more crowded reef, that is why even though the WTP is displayed, it is not taken into
consideration. Class 2, the major of the significant choices (22.98%), show the most willing to pay and each estimation respond
accordingly. These visitants are disposed to pay, more for biodiversity than any other attribute, up to $2969.75 to reach a
medium level and an additional difference of $3,369.29, more than double –for the rest of the characteristics, people defined
its marginal utility from a medium level to a higher, multiplying per more than two. The persons in this class represent the
population more committed with the preservation of the reef, both remains are not inclined to pay as much.
Class 3 present coherent results but a lower disposition to pay, despite, the undetermined payment for a medium number of
species. They care more for the quality of water than biodiversity. The last class given show peculiar results, people are more
willing to pay for a medium level than for a higher, concluding that for this people exist an optimum level in the middle, and
are not disposed to pay more to reach a higher level.

Class 2 Biodiversity 2ndL Biodiversity 3rdL Water transparency 2ndL Water transparency 3rdL Congestion 2ndL Congestion 3rdL

Wtp (mxn pesos) 2969.7469 6339.0395 611.82152 1309.394 1954.4482 4299.5819

minimum (ll) 2124.7189 4684.5488 212.56033 1024.8016 1381.6812 3197.6889
maximum (ul) 3814.7749 7993.5303 1011.0827 1593.9864 2527.2152 5401.475

Class 3 Biodiversity 2ndL Biodiversity 3rdL Water transparency 2ndL Water transparency 3rdL Congestion 2ndL Congestion 3rdL

Wtp (mxn pesos) UND 1573.7457 1522.279 2567.5155 2860.1597 4126.5752

minimum (ll) UND 872.05065 702.94827 1706.4318 1887.4222 2508.787
maximum (ul) 96.310698 2275.4408 2341.6097 3428.5993 3832.8973 5744.3633

Class 4 Biodiversity 2ndL Biodiversity 3rdL Water transparency 2ndL Water transparency 3rdL Congestion 2ndL Congestion 3rdL

Wtp (mxn pesos) 1013.2625 983.72861 960.78989 603.24098 840.23208 882.24117

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minimum (ll) 684.01099 555.71792 520.60947 333.88136 590.16698 492.81542

maximum (ul) 1342.514 1411.7393 1400.9703 872.6006 1090.2972 1271.6669

Note: UND, undetermined

Source: Author’s own elaboration

Therefore, according to their proportions in the sample, we can say that there is a total WTP, from a weighted average,
per attribute as it is shown in the following table, considering for the 64.56% a WTP equals zero.
Attribute Level WTP (mxn pesos)
Biodiversity 2ndL $ 766.45
Biodiversity 3rdL $ 1,603.89
Water transparency 2ndL $ 283.73
Water transparency 3rdL $ 457.97
Congestion 2ndL $ 638.06
Congestion 3rdL $ 1,233.26
Source: Author’s own elaboration.

As it can be noted, the most important variable is biodiversity, for more than double of water transparency.

The results show that the willingness to pay super pass the actual tariffs and could finance the conservation of the reef. It
is a demonstration of the possibilities to act on the preservation of the reef in a higher level of water transparency and amount
of species.
However, the results of congestion did not turn out as expected. They show a willingness to pay for a more crowded reef.
Therefore, we exhort on a deeper field study to understand this conduct or another survey to eliminate possible errors in the
understanding of the attribute or application of the survey.

The findings give a financial option to work along with federal and local authorities in the preservation of the reef, to
reinforce present actions to guarantee the attribute’s levels for visitors in order to offer a greater experience and continue to
strengthen tourism and economy in the island in a sustainable way. In addition, it offers a panoramic understanding of the
commitment of participants, and aware of a possible resistance of more than 68% of the population.

This Project was financed by the Project Evaluation of Ecosystem Services of Federal Natural Protected Areas of Mexico: an
innovative tool for financing biodiversity and climate change (EcoValor Mx), which was implemented by the Ministry of
Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) through the National Commission of Natural Protected Areas (CONANP)
and the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH commissioned by the Federal Ministry of the
Environment, Nature Conservation, Public Works and Nuclear Safety (BMUB ), under the Agreement of Technical
Cooperation between the Government of the Federal Republic of Germany and the Government of the United Mexican States,
and its Amendment Agreement. The project is part of the International Climate Initiative (IKI). The BMUB supports the
Initiative by a decision of the German Parliament. Additionally, the Universidad Iberoamericana supported the travel expenses
of the coordinator of the field work in Cozumel.

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2(1), 90.
CONANP-GIZ. (2017). Valoración de Servicios Ecosistémicos del Parque Nacional Arrecife de Cozumel y del Área de Protección de FLora y Fauna Isla
Cozumel. In. Ciudad de México.
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practical guide. The Patient-Patient-Centered Outcomes Research, 8(5), 373-384.
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Grafeld, S., Oleson, K., Barnes, M., Peng, M., Chan, C., & Weijerman, M. (2016). Divers' willingness to pay for improved coral reef conditions in Guam:
An untapped source of funding for management and conservation? Ecological Economics, 128, 202-213.

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Methodological, 37(8), 681-698.
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Ordaz, J. L. (2007). México: capital humano e ingresos. Retornos a la educación, 1994-2005: cepal.
Pabel, A., & Coghlan, A. (2011). Dive market segments and destination competitiveness: A case study of the Great Barrier Reef in view of changing reef
ecosystem health. Tourism in Marine Environments, 7(2), 55-66.
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Polak, O., & Shashar, N. (2013). Economic value of biological attributes of artificial coral reefs. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70(4), 904-912.
Rolfe, J., & Windle, J. (2010). Valuing protection of the Great Barrier Reef with choice modelling by management policy options.
Sorice, M., Oh, C., & Ditton, R. B. (2005). Using a stated preference discrete choice experiment to analyze scuba diver preferences for coral reef
conservation. National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Grant.
Tawfik, R. T., & Turner, R. K. (2010). Visitor Preferences for Coral Reef Conservation in Ras Mohammed National Park. Norwich: United Kingdom:
Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia.
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tourists. Environmental Conservation, 27(4), 382-391.

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Systemic and SMART approach as an instrument

for dealing with brownfields
Turečková, K., and Nevima, J.
Department of Economics and Public Administration, School of Business Administration in Karvina, Silesian University in
Opava, Univerzitni Nam. 1934/3, 733 40 Karvina, Czech Republic; (K.T.) and
Abstract—Brownfields (as abandoned and unused sites and buildings) are an integral part of urban consequences of human
activities that can be transformed into a source that has not been used so far on both regional and national levels. As brownfields
are typical by their set of negative externalities, reusing brownfields, either partially or fully, might be perceived as one of the
aspects of sustainable development. The society-wide concerns for brownfield regeneration create pressure on owners of
brownfields and public institutions to target their activities on solving the problems connected to their occurrence and to search
for their new or alternative uses by abiding conditions of societal and environmental responsibility. The search for solutions
concerning brownfield re-use might be based on plenty of theoretical recommendations and experiences from praxis. With a
reference to the aim of this contribution, the systemic approach in brownfield regeneration will be introduced in the paper.
Sub-systemic approaches will be also studied. These are grounded in mental models and the complexity theory, specifically in
the presently most accentuated approach called the SMART approach. By means of these models, we are able to determine
and define suitable regeneration processes for individual unused buildings or sites. The core of the systemic approach lies in
analysis, modelling and description of cognitive processes and principles. They characterize the way of dealing with reality
and are closely interconnected with the study of natural and anthropogenic systems. At the same time, the SMART approach
is generally typical by using highly sophisticated analytical methods, approaches, ways of communication and techniques for
designing the aims, processes and planning of brownfield regeneration. The SMART approach is significantly linked to the
process of transfer of SMART solutions into material and non-material innovations. An analogy to the theoretical delimitation
of approaches applied for the issue of brownfields will be completed on the examples of best practices of brownfield
regeneration with an emphasis on its possibilities for a versatile, sustainable development of areas and environs that surround
the human society.
Keywords—brownfield, regeneration, SMART approach, sustainable development, system, systemic approach


T HE term “brownfield“ involves all buildings and sites that are abandoned, unused, neglected or decaying, i.e. buildings
and land (properties) that do not fulfil their original purpose and are relics of industrial, agricultural, residential, military,
transport or other economic activities (CzechInvest, 2008 or Alker et al., 2000). Brownfields are an integral part of urban
consequences of human activities and are an inseparable manifestation of the dynamics of socio-economic changes that are
continuously accompanied by the transformation of the settlement and living space in the area of the given country (Turečková
& Nevima, 2018). The regeneration of brownfields may be based on a range of theoretical recommendations and experiences
from praxis, yet it always must respect the uniqueness of the given property in context of its localisation within the given area.
The objective of the paper is to introduce two possible approaches towards the brownfields regeneration and to specify their
use on the examples of best practices of the chosen brownfields in the Czech Republic. It is necessary to state that these
approaches have been already put in use, both in the sphere of brownfield regeneration as well as when dealing with other
interdisciplinary issues of the society. Regarding the aim of the paper, both the systemic and the SMART approach will be
introduced in order to emphasise their application impact when searching for the possibilities for the regeneration of abandoned
sites. The authors´ objective is thus to interconnect not yet defined and separate theoretical aspect of the systemic and the
SMART approach with the process of brownfields regeneration. The described findings and implications of the approaches
may supplement both expert and general discussions regarding the utilization of brownfields in favour of sustainable
development in the given area.


Brownfields, within the present (modern) approach and in connection with the economic development and current
dynamic deepening of the quality of life, are perceived as a significant, yet specific element of the territorial development and
spatial distribution of the cultural-natural environment (Brown, 2012 or Krzysztofik et al., 2016).
The re-use of abandoned land and sites helps within the urbanized area reduce the pressure to construct buildings in the
undeveloped areas (greenfields) and maintain the compactness of the present developed area. The re-use of abandoned sites is
also supported by the argument of undesirable effects related to the suburbanisation and urban sprawl (Frantal et al., 2015;
Putman, 2000, Oliver 2001, Jackson, 2002 or Sýkora, 2003). All this together with the common purpose to contribute to a
more sustainable development of the cities and settled rural areas regarding their physical compactness (Kladivo and Halas,
2012) might reduce the consequent environmental and health risks (Litt et al., 2002, Eiser et al., 2007) for local population,
and significantly contribute to an increase of attractiveness of cities and municipalities (Andrés and Grésillon, 2013,
Somlyódyné Pfeil, 2017 or Berkes, 2017). Such support might also help to enhance our responsibility (Tagaia, 2016) for
implications of our industrial history that still significantly affects the face and the structure of our contemporary cities.

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Generally, the support for brownfields regeneration might strengthen our nowadays more environmentally friendly way of
perceiving our urban space that prefers utilization of existing properties instead of the ones that are being built on greenfields
(De Sousa, 2003).
De Sousa et al. (2009), Pediaditi et al. (2005), Navratil et al. (2018), Martinat et al. (2017) or Williams & Dair (2007) all
studied the regeneration of brownfields being conceptually analysed by defining the structure of the process of the regeneration
and its individual actors, the identification of its individual stages, an explanation of the cyclicity of the existence of
brownfields including the determination of positive and negative effects resulting from the existence or regeneration of
Other authors, for example, Martinat et al. (2016) or Alexandrescu et al. (2014) are dealing with the identification of
driving forces and barriers of the brownfields regeneration, they classify these factors according to the geographical location,
the type of the area or land use, or they quantify the criteria and evaluate the significance of the factors within the planning
and the decision-making process of the regeneration of abandoned sites and buildings (Chrysochoou et al., 2012, Schädler et
al., 2011 or Rizzo et al., 2015).


The systemic approach is a special-purpose and comprehensive way of thinking and solving problems. In our paper, we
apply a compact approach towards the problems solving regarding the process of brownfields regeneration with a necessary
determination of all the relevant phenomena and processes, together with an analysis in their inner and outer context and
The core of the systemic approach is a partial research of the inputs and outputs of the system including the process of
their transformation and mutual interaction with the surroundings. There is a set of inherent and transcendent elements that are
interconnected by a specific functional relation and behaviour, and altogether they form a unit – system and its structure (von
Bertalanffy, 1968). As far as the brownfields are concerned, the system is real, artificial, open and complex. As it is not possible
to guess all the specific bonds among the elements of the brownfields regeneration, we may infer from the factual
interpretations and absolute enumeration of individual characteristics and connections, and thus work with a general system
based on the formal-logical construction defined by the objects of the reality. The general system then enables us to discover
in more detail our own objects of reality and connections between the objects and effects of the external real life.
The system is a special-purpose defined ordered nonempty set of elements and a set of bonds between the elements, when
the elements outside the “visible” border of the system influence the behaviour of the systems, and vice versa. The system
unites in itself its own relatively individual components ordered into a spatial structure and defined for the given time interval.
The extent of the description and analysis of the researched object that is described by this system depends on the level of the
detail of the study itself. The structure of the system may be analysed and defined at a different identifying level (decomposition
or aggregation of the system), while it is not possible even with the most perfect system of observation to reach outside the
border of recognisability (there is always an element of randomness) (Schejbal, 2000).
The process of discovering, analysis and modelling of physical systems usually starts with the mental activity, i.e. creating
mental models, which can be formally transformed into mental maps (Buzan, 2007 or Schejbal, 2012). The mental model, the
inner representation of the researched object, is usually based on the knowledge of the creators of the model. To make it
intelligible for the others, it is necessary to creatively transform this mental model into a symbolic-graphical chart. Such
visualised findings and thoughts supplemented with a text or icons (pictures and symbols) effectively represent the researched
problems. We may note that the words used in the mental model may be evocative (reflecting the same associations) as well
as creative (evoking some other and more general images). The aim of the mental models describing the analysed system is s
synthesis of human perception, learning, decision-making and behaviour with the real environment (Schejbal, 2012).
An example of the mental model, which represents in its simplified version an anthropogenic system of brownfields
regeneration, is portrayed in Figure 1. It is a set of concepts, elements, attributes and mutual bonds between them, through
which the real process of the brownfields regeneration may be defined. This system is in a direct interaction with the
environmental and natural system and with the socio-economic system. On one hand, the effects and manifestations that
precede the regeneration process are highlighted, while on the other hand the attributes resulting from the brownfield that has
successfully completed the regeneration are mentioned.

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Figure 1. The systemic concept of regeneration of brownfields. Source: own processing

The second chosen systemic sub-approach, which is suitable to be applied in relation to the brownfields regeneration, is
the so-called theory of complexity, which is represented by a range of concepts, heuristics and analytical tools that attempt to
explain a complex phenomenon that is difficult to be fully explained through the traditional theories (Litaker et al., 2006). By
means of the theory of complexity, we can determine the systems as dynamic networks with plenty of mutually dependent
parts, their complex behaviour being based on a small number of relatively simple rules. In a simplified way, we may state
that it is a concept which defines and analyses complex systems using a background of a set of terms and approaches (Schejbal,
2012). Such an approach may be applied provided that there is a hidden pattern in the development and behaviour of complex
systems, be it economic system, geosystem, industrial organization or organization of the regeneration of abandoned
The verbal, graphical or mathematical projection (defining) and description of the system with its individual elements,
attributes, bonds and transformations in time in context of the process of the brownfields regeneration may be on one hand (1)
subjectively based on mental models, or (2) objectively determined using the theory of complexity. By combining both
systemic sub-approaches and with a reference to good practice examples, we are able to define such a systemic framework
that would, under the given conditions, serve as a suitable tool in planning and implementation of the regeneration of unused
land, and it would thus make the entire process more effective.


The term SMART is mostly seen and more popular in the sphere of management, where it serves as an analytical
technology for projecting the objectives. Lately, the word SMART has been perceived more like an equivalent of the word
clever or intelligent in context with various perceptions, solutions and approaches, and through which we want to accentuate
“a distinct, elaborated and complex perspective” through a range of scientific and practical disciplines. The SMART attitude
is typical for its highly sophisticated analytical methods, attitudes, communications and technologies used for projecting the
aims, procedures and planning, and it applies to the entire discipline of transfer of SMART solutions into the material and
immaterial innovations (Turečková & Nevima, 2018).
The SMART concept is a relatively new applied approach in individual regions of the regional development based on
both technical and non-technical innovations, through which we want to emphasise specific attributes that define such approach
in general (Borseková, Váňová & Vitálišová, 2017). Among these attributes of the SMART concept belong:
• emphasis on an innovative solution,
• maximum exploitability of resources without waste,
• responsibility towards surroundings,
• consideration towards the environment,
• dynamics and the ability to respond to new impulses quickly,
• and, looking for sophisticated ways how to solve the “challenges” in regard to the society development.
It is not possible to set an unambiguous definition of the SMART concept as it always reflects the concrete situation and the
sphere of concerned activities. In general, it can be stated that it is: “an innovative and functional approach that deals

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responsibly with situations and with a positive impact on the society” (Turečková & Nevima, 2018). The output of the SMART
approach should include making the SMART Decision and finding SMART and functional Solution for the stipulated issue
(Borseková et al., 2018). In this paper, the SMART concept will be introduced from the perspective of the regeneration
approaches and reuse of abandoned sites and land. Considering this, we may adopt a narrow definition of the SMART approach
representing a concept of processes relying on (1) sustainable economic and regional development and (2) the quality of life
based on:
• an “open” approach towards the purposefulness of the given brownfield (regarding its potential use),
• new solutions, materials and procedures when regenerating the properties and areas,
• utilization of as many original material relics as possible,
• innovations in technical, technological and non-technical field related to the regeneration of brownfields,
• involvement and responsibility of all subjects participating in the regeneration of abandoned properties

Figure 2. The SMART concept in brownfield´s regeneration. Source: own processing

The SMART regeneration of brownfields represents not only the manifested regeneration and re-use of abandoned sites
or buildings in the true sense of the word, but it also gets diversified by the material and non-material aspects (see Figure 2).
Regeneration must (1) be socially beneficial in general, i.e. have positive effects and externalities for the society, (2) be based
on environmentally acceptable and responsible methods, (3) be connected to the local community and (4) rely as much as
possible on recycling of original materials that are located within the brownfield area. It is necessary to search new, more
effective and environment-friendly ways of brownfield´s waste recycling with the aim to conserve both renewable and non-
renewable resources. The subjects must behave in such a way that it is not contrary to the inherent ability of natural and social
environment to sustain the present system for the future, including fulfilment of social needs alongside with the sustainable
utilization of the cultural landscape.

The SMART approach may be identified in terms of the regeneration of transport brownfields in Paris, France, since the
early 1980s. It specifically includes the reconstruction of the former railway line, as well as unsuitable roads and transport
areas and buildings that were converted to the parks, promenades and areas for leisure time. For example, Coulée verte René-
Dumont (The René-Dumont Green Path), a public park opened for public in 1993, at the place of a former railway line
connecting the Bastille railway station and the valley of the Marne river stretching for 4,7 km and covering 3,7 hectares of
greenery. Another example is Coulée verte du sud parisien (green corridor in southern Paris). It is a grassed and wooded area
for leisure time activities stretching along the TGV railway between the cities of Massy and Paris. The area was originally
intended for the A10 motorway to Paris, but it was never implemented. Until 1939, there had been a railway from Paris to
Chartres. Nowadays, there is a 14-km long cycling path, walking paths, playgrounds, sports grounds, coffee shops, etc.
( In both cases, it is an unconventional regeneration of unused property, which favoured public
interest to the interests of private investors, and undoubtedly contributed to the improvement of the quality of life of the
population. This fact is supported by similar activities of large cities across entire Europe.

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Another example of the SMART approach when regenerating mining and industrial brownfields is Berzdofer See in
Sachsen (Germany), which was created out of the former brown coal mine. The area of the lake is 960 hectares and it was
created at the place of the former lignite mine that had been put into operation in 1835. During its biggest boom, it employed
seven thousand people and produced up to 50 thousand tonnes of brown coal daily. The mine was closed in 1997, and between
2002 and 2013, it was transformed into a large lake, the thirtiest largest in Germany. Using the piping, it was flooded by the
river Nisa and it now serves to the public as a gigantic sports area with a wide range of activities. There is a harbour, campsite,
car park, water sports centre, golf course, volleyball courts and horse-riding path, and a unique castle built on the water on
beech pillars. The lake is suitable for windsurfing and yachting. The scuba-diving centre and a glass tunnel running below the
water surface should become the principal attraction in near future (
The systemic approach in the process of regeneration of brownfields can be found with such regenerations that have
parallels in the formerly regenerated properties and areas, or the one with a principle of analogy.
A typical example of the systemic approach in context of the reutilization of abandoned buildings is a conversion of minor
aristocratic residences across the Czech Republic into accommodation facilities and restaurants. Plenty of chateaus (most of
which were in a very bad technical and constructional condition) were returned to their original owners under the property
restitution after 1989, who then retained this family possession, or they assigned it to other owners for financial reasons. As a
consequence, these buildings were successfully reconstructed, a lot of them into above-standard hotels such as Ratmerice
chateau (, Petrovice chateau (, Augustinian house
(, Detenice chateau resort (, Racice chateau
(, Liblice hotel and chateau ( and others. As these buildings are
architectonically similarly designed with a similar historical development, being usually located outside the major tourist
destinations, focusing on the identical specific clientele, providing similar service, etc. (i.e. a system with its own inputs,
outputs, elements, processes, attributes, bonds, ...), the tested approaches may be adopted and applied when regenerating
abandoned buildings of the same character in order to maximise the benefit of all involved subjects and minimise the costs.

Both the SMART and the systemic approach may be applied when dealing with issues and problems occurring across the
scientific sphere. In this paper, the application of these approaches was narrowed down to the sphere of brownfields
regeneration and the benefits and strengths of such approaches for each individual case were highlighted. It is essential that
dealing with any issues and problems is based on properly formulated approaches and processes that result from appropriate
theoretical-methodological principles. With the right approach towards the process of brownfields regeneration, it is possible
to support the regional development with the idea that brownfield, rather than being an issue, is space with inner potential for
the future development and in which the cultural-historical legacy of our own history is reflected.

This paper was kindly supported by the project with the title „Brownfields in urban and rural space: geographic, economic,
historical, legal contexts and their importance for regional development (BURAN)“ (SGS/21/2016) and with the support of
the project CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17_049/0008452 „SMART technologies to improve the quality of life in cities and regions" co-
funded by the European Union.

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versus character of respondents. DETUROPE – Journal of Regional Development and Tourism, 9(2), 71-92.
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stakeholder perceptions, concerns, attitudes and information needs. Land Use Policy, 48, 437-453.
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Developing the Urban Thermal Environment Management and Planning

(UTEMP) System to Support Urban Planning and Design
Lee, D.,1 and Oh, K.2,*
Research Institute of Spatial Planning and Policy, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea;
Department of Urban Planning and Engineering, Hanyang University in Seoul, Korea; *
Abstract—Mathematical modeling has the advantage of not only investigating the urban heat island phenomenon but also of
identifying the effects of a thermal environment improvement plan in detail. As a result, mathematical modeling has been
applied worldwide as a scientific tool for solving urban thermal environment problems. However, the meteorological modeling
developed until now has been insufficient in term of direct application to the urban planning and design fields due to the
preprocessing process for modeling operation and the excessive time required for modeling. Combining meteorological
modeling technology and GIS analysis technology, this study developed the Urban Thermal Environment Management and
Planning (UTEMP) system that can be user friendly and applied to urban planning and designing, and its usefulness was
investigated. The UTEMP system was applied to areas where the heat island phenomenon occurred frequently in Seoul, Korea,
and the accuracy of the UTEMP system was verified by comparing Automatic Weather Systems (AWSs) data. Urban spatial
change scenarios were established and air temperature variations according to such changes were identified. The urban
scenarios were distinguished by three cases including: existing condition (before the development), applications of the thermal
environment measures to existing condition, and allowable future urban development (the maximum development density
under the urban planning law). The UTEMP system demonstrated an accuracy of adj. R2 0.952 and a ±0.91 Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE). By applying the UTEMP system to urban spatial change scenarios, the average air temperature of 0.35 and
maximum air temperature of 1.27 ℃ was found to rise when the maximum development density was achieved. Meanwhile,
the air temperature reduction effect of rooftop greening was identified by an average of 0.12 ℃ with a maximum of 0.45℃.
Thus, the development of UTEMPS can be utilized as an effective tool for planning and designing to improve the urban thermal
Keywords—urban climate, mathematical modelling, GIS, urban planning and design


T HE urban thermal environment is becoming increasingly worse as climate change, urbanization, and human activity
increase (Seto, Güneralp & Hutyra, 2012). These thermal environmental problems are causing negative urban problems
such as the worsening health of citizens, increases of energy consumption, decline of ecosystem service functions, and
deterioration of air quality (Grimm et al., 2008; Sarrat et al., 2006). In case of Korea, if greenhouse gas is emitted as BaU
(Business as Usual), it is expected that temperatures of about 4 - 5 ℃ will increase in most metropolitan cities after 100 years.
Not surprisingly, various attempts have been made to improve the thermal environment through planning and design techniques
including the introduction of heat reduction infrastructures and the creation of wind corridors.
Meanwhile, it would be ideal to utilize long-term observational data throughout entire urban areas in order to investigate
urban climatic characteristics and to analyze the effects of thermal environment improvement measures. However, this is
practically impossible due to space constraints, installation time, and expensive operating costs (Mirzaei & Haghighat, 2010).
Therefore, a mathematical climate simulation model that interprets natural phenomena as a mathematical equation using
computers has been mainly applied to urban thermal environment analysis.
The mathematical climate simulation model is capable of quantitative analysis of complex urban thermal environments
and have advantages in that similar iterative analyses can be conducted and verified relatively quickly at a lower cost than field
observation or wind tunnel tests. With recent advances in analytical techniques and computer processing speeds, the use of
mathematical modeling continues to increase in urban planning and design (Chen et al., 2011; Mirzaei & Haghighat., 2010).
On the meso-scale level, energy balance models such as WRF and MM5 have been applied to investigate overall
meteorological phenomena (temperature, wind direction, wind velocity, etc.) of large urban areas, and to analyze the effects
of heat environment improvement with the introduction of large parks and green areas (Dudhia & Bresch, 2002; Yang & Bou-
Zeid, 2018; Kim, Oh & Lee, 2018). In addition, a guideline map for planning and managing the thermal environment
throughout urban areas has been developed, taking into account the mathematical climate simulation model results and urban
spatial characteristics (Ren, Ng & Katzschner 2011).
On the other hand, on the micro-scale (building unit or block scale), the climate variations due to the introduction of heat
reduction infrastructures (vegetation and cool pavements expansion) or changes of building form and arrangement, has been
analyzed by applying a computational fluid dynamic model (CFD) such as Envi-met, Fluent etc. Gromke et al. (2015) identified
the heat reduction effects of introducing trees and green roofs applying the Fluent model. Wang, Berardi & Akbari (2016)
established thermal environment improvement scenarios combining albedo control, cool roofs introduction, and vegetation
expansion, and their heat mitigation effects were investigated using the Envi-met model. In addition, on the pedestrian level,
Ng et al. (2012) analyzed the heat reduction effect of green roofs by applying the Envi-met model.
Although the utilization of mathematical climate simulation model is increasing in the urban planning and design field to
improve the thermal environment, in order to apply urban planning and design alternatives mainly created by CAD or GIS to
the mathematical climate simulation model, a complex pre-processing is required. In particular, most modeling use the model
input database provided by the country where the modeling was developed, so important spatial characteristics are often

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ignored when applying climate modeling to other countries. Therefore, there are difficulties for non-specialists related to
climate model research to operate mathematical climate simulation model. In addition, despite the progress of computer
processing speed, it takes a long time to identify model results, which makes it difficult to compare the alternatives that are
changed frequently in the process of urban planning and design.
Furthermore, most of the climate modeling that has been developed so far is limited to either the meso-scale or the micro-
scale depending on the characteristics of the model such as assumptions on meteorological phenomena. Therefore, in order to
establish effective measures to improve the thermal environment, as Shuzo (2006) and Mirzaei & Haghighat (2010)
emphasized, it is necessary to develop a model that integrates the meso-scale and the micro-scale model.
The limit of the applicability of the mathematical climate simulation model increases the need for system development
that can be effectively applied to urban planning and design for effective thermal environment improvement. As a spatial
decision support system to improve the urban thermal environment, this study developed the Urban Thermal Environment
Management and Planning (UTEMP) system that can be user friendly and applied to urban planning and design, and its
usefulness was investigated. In order to verify the accuracy of the UTEMP system as a mathematical climate simulation model
that integrates meso-scale and micro-scale characteristics, air temperature was simulated on the district-scale level (between
meso-scale and micro-scale), and simulated results were compared with observed air-temperature. In addition, its usefulness
to urban planning and design were identified by investigating air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes.


A. Developing the UTEMP system
The UTEMP system was established by combining a GIS engine and thermal environment analysis engine, both of which
were developed by a private Korean company. The GIS engine of the UTEMP system has technological characteristics which
have international compatibility (meeting the OGC international standard) and provide over 80 types of geo-processing tools.
Meanwhile, the thermal environment analysis engine is kind of a morphological model that integrates a meso-scale and a
micro-scale model. This engine is capable of performing one-hour climate analysis of large-scale urban space (about
605.24km2) in 30m × 30m resolution within 20 minutes and securing an accuracy FAC2 (Fact of two) of more than 80%.

1) Main functions of the UTEMP system

The UTEMP system consists of 7 main functions and 27 sub functions such as 1) file, 2) home, 3) identifying urban
planning and climate inventories, 4) urban spatial change simulation, 5) establishment of thermal environment improvement
alternatives, 6) thermal environment analysis, and 7) thermal environment improvement plan assessment (Table 1). File and
home provide elementary GIS functions such as project creation and management, data input and removal, and geo-processing.
In case of urban planning and climate inventories, it provides basic information of the study area to establish thermal
environment alternatives such as zoning information, urban climate zones, topography, and land cover.
The most important functions of the UTEMP system are urban spatial change simulation, establishment of a thermal
environment improvement plan, thermal environment analysis, and thermal environment improvement plan evaluation. The
function of the urban spatial change simulation is that it can predict whether the individual buildings of the study area could
be changed to the maximum development density under urban planning law. In addition, if the urban development plan is
expected in the study area, this plan can be inputted for thermal environment analysis. The application of the typical planning
and design techniques to improve the thermal environment, such as the creation of a wind corridor and the introduction of heat
reduction infrastructures, is possible through the function of establishing the thermal environment improvement plan. Finally,
the thermal environment analysis and thermal environment improvement plan evaluation functions enable data pre-processing
for mathematical modeling and analyzing climate variations according to urban spatial changes. In other words, the UTEMP
system was developed to implement both climate modeling functions and thermal environment improvement measures (Figure

Main Functions Sub Functions

Project (project creation, open project, save), data (add data, remove data, export data), conversion data,
map creation
View (pan, zoom in/out, etc.), Selection (attribute/location selection), geo-processing (buffer, clip,
intersect, union etc.), Measurement, view mode change
Urban Planning and management (zoning, urban facilities, land use, road, building, etc.) climate
Identifying urban planning and climate
information (air-temperature, wind direction, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity,
cloudiness etc.), climate characteristics (urban climate zones), topography, statistics
Maximum development density simulation, input alternatives, applying urban development patterns,
urban spatial change simulation
editing, statistics

Establishment of thermal environment Creation wind corridor (roads, buildings), heat reduction infrastructures introduction(urban parks,
improvement alternatives vegetation, cool pavements, green roofs, water spaces), establishing thermal environments scenarios
Climate modeling (air-temperature, wind speed, wind direction, Thermal comfort modeling, urban
Thermal environment analysis
spatial statistic

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Thermal environment improvement plan Alternatives assessment (air temperature reduction, thermal environment improvement), alternatives
assessment comparison.

Figure 1. User interface of the UTEMP system.

2) Developing the thermal environment analysis engine

The thermal environment engine included in the UTEMP system is classified into a meso-scale climate model and a
thermal dispersion model. In case of the meso-scale climate model, it consists of a flat terrain PBL model, urban model, and
complex terrain model. In order to create a meteorological field which reflects urban spatial structure on the modeling area,
assuming that the model areas are a flat terrain, the first meteorological field is established based on AWSs observation data.
Next, an urban model is created reflecting building information including location and shape, and a final meteorological field
is generated reflecting elevation information on the urban model through a complex terrain model. On the other hand, a
temperature field model is composed of a heat source tag model (HSTM) and a Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM).
Applying equation (1) developed by Nunez & Oke (1977), the HSTM calculates the energy balance of the model area based
on the meso-scale climate model.

𝑄𝑄 ∗ + 𝑄𝑄𝐹𝐹 = 𝑄𝑄𝑠𝑠 + 𝐻𝐻 + 𝐸𝐸 (1)

Q*: Net radiation,

QF = Artificial heat
Qs = Storage heat flux
H= Sensible heat flux
E= Latent heat flux

Considering the shade effect, the net radiation is calculated based on the shadow factor and the sky view factor. In order to
estimate the storage heat flux, equation (2) was applied and selected parameters for land covers were selected. They are
presented in Table 2.

𝑄𝑄𝑠𝑠 = ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎1𝑖𝑖 𝑄𝑄 ∗ + ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1(𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎2𝑖𝑖 ) + ∑𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑖=1 𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖 𝑎𝑎3𝑖𝑖 (2)

𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑖 : Area ratio of land cover

Qi: Net radiation
a1, a2, a3: Coefficient determined by land cover type.
t: hour

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Land cover type a1 a2 a3 Sources

Green 0.34 0.31 -31

Grimmond & Oke (1999)
Building 0.07 0.06 -5

Impervious 0.83 0.4 -54.2 Mean value of research results of Doll et al. (1985) and Asaeda & Ca (1993)

Water 0.5 0.21 -39.1 Souch et al. (1998)

Road 0.61 0.41 -27.7 Mean value of research results of Narita et al. (1984) and Asaeda & Ca (1993)

Next, applying LPDM, the climate phenomena including air-temperature, wind direction, and wind speed of the model
area is predicted based on sensible heat flux which is calculated by HSTM. The entire model process was coded by FORTRAN
and was included in the UTEMP system as sub functions.

B. The case study

The usefulness of the UTEMP system was verified by applying it to the Seogyo-dong area where the heat island
phenomenon occurs frequently in Seoul. As presented in the research results by Lee & Oh (2018), this area has spatial
characteristics that are likely to occur frequently in the heat island phenomenon among the urban climate zones in Seoul. In
order to verify the UTEMP system’s usefulness as a mathematical climate simulation model that integrates meso-scale and
micro-scale characteristics, a district scale area (0.8km2) with mixed commercial and residential areas, and human activity
(which is very active due to the nearby subway station) is investigated. In addition, in order to consider the boundary effect,
the modeling area in the simulation is set to a much bigger area (3.5km× 2.5km, 8.75km2) shown as the entire air photomap in
Figure 2.

Figure 2. The case study area.

In order to verify the usefulness of the UTEMP system for the improvement of the urban thermal environment in urban
planning and design, the case study consisted of, 1) preparing and pre-processing variables to mathematical climate modeling,
2) verifying accuracy of modeling results, and 3) identifying air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes
(Figure 3).

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Figure 3. The flow of the case study.

1) Preparing and pre-processing variables for mathematical climate modeling

In order to analyze the thermal environment of the urban space, climate information, land cover, terrain, location and
shape information of buildings are essential. The national standard DBs including climate information and spatial information
provided by a Korea portal DB website were inputted as elementary DB of the UTEMP system, and they were pre-processed
for mathematical climate modeling. Table 3 shows the elementary DBs applied to the UTEMP system. In addition, Figure 4
shows the results of converting the building information of the vector format into the ASCII format for climate modeling.
Input data Usages Sources
Wind direction, wind speed, air
Climate Korea Meteorological
temperature, coldness, relative Meteorological field creation Hour
information Administration
humidity, precipitation
Heat balance estimation Ministry of Environment,
Land cover 1:25,000
(Sensible heat flux, net radiation) Korea
Ministry of Land,
Spatial DEM Wind flow analysis 10m×10m Infrastructure and Transport,
information Korea
Climate modeling analysis Ministry of Land,
Building information considering complex urban 1:1,000 Infrastructure and Transport,
structures Korea

Figure 4. The pre-processed results of building information (Vector to ASCII).

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2) Accuracy verification of climate model results

This study simulated climate phenomena for 36 hours from 07:00 on June 9, 2015 to 06:00 on June 11, 2015, which had
relatively low cloud cover and low average wind speed in summer. To create a meteorological field, climate information
including wind speed, wind direction, air-temperature, relative humidity, and cloudiness near AWS was inputted. The
simulated results were obtained with a spatial resolution of 30m×30m in a one-hour unit. The accuracy of the modeling results
was verified by confirming the adj. R2 and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) with observed data of the four AWSs in the case
study area.

3) Application of the UTEMP system

In order to identify the applicability of the UTEMP system as a tool for improving the thermal environment, three
scenarios were established and variations of air-temperature due to urban spatial changes were investigated (Table 4 and Figure
5). The first scenario is an existing condition in which no urban space change has occurred. There are a total of 1,700 buildings
in the case study area, and the average building to coverage ratio (BCR) and floor area ratio (FAR) are 41.3% and 258.8%,
The second scenario is applying maximum green roofs to existing condition (scenario 1) which are adopted around the
world to improve the thermal environment. The applicability of green roofs could be determined by the roof shape and the age
of the buildings (Kim, Oh & Lee, 2018). Therefore, green roofs were applied only to buildings that satisfy both of two
conditions, namely the shape of the roof is flat and the age of the building is less than 30 years. The applicable green roof areas
were identified by the function of heat reduction infrastructures introduction included in the UTEMP system. From the results,
green roofs were found to be applicable on 1,096 buildings (64%) among the 1,700 buildings. The total green roofs area is
As a virtual urban development situation, the third scenario assumes that the individual buildings are developed with a
maximum development density according to urban planning and architectural regulations. In other words, scenario 3 is a
condition in which the urban thermal environment is likely to deteriorate to the maximum by urban development. Such a
maximum development condition was analyzed by applying the function of maximum development density simulation
included in the UTEMP system. From the simulation results, it was found that the average BCR and FAR in the case study
area could be increased by 54.8% (about 13.5%) and 412% (about 153.2%), respectively.

Building (BCR1), FAR2)) Heat mitigation measures (applied area)

Scenario 1 Existing condition (41.3%, 258.8%) None

Applying green roofs (99,467m2) to existing
Scenario 2 Existing condition (41.3%, 258.8%)
condition (scenario 1)
Maximum development under urban planning
Scenario 3 None
law (54.8%, 412.0%)
1) BCR: Building to coverage ratio
2) FAR: Floor area ratio

Figure 5. The urban spatial change scenarios.

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A. Accuracy verification of simulated air-temperature
Figure 6 shows the distribution of simulated air temperature at 10am, 4am, 8am, 12am, 4pm, and 8pm on June 10, 2015.
The average temperature of the case study area is 27.37 ℃ and the range is from 22.05 to 33.05 ℃. As the Han River located
in the southern part of the study area, the air temperature of the southern part is relatively lower than that of other areas. On
the other hand, it was found that the air temperature of the central parts in the case study area where it is considerably urbanized
and impervious wide roads are located, is relatively high.
As a result of comparing simulated air temperature and observed air temperature by four AWSs, Adj. R2 ranged from
0.923 to 0.978 with a mean of 0.952 and RMSE ranged from ± 0.75 ℃ - to ±1.26 ℃ with a mean of ±0.915(Figure 7 and
Table5). These simulated errors are similar to those of Yang & Bou-Zeid (2018), Samsonov, Konstantinov & Varentsov (2015)
and He et al. (2015). Therefore, this study confirmed the results of the simulated air-temperature by the UTEMP system which
simulated real conditions with a high accuracy.

Figure 6. Air temperature analysis results by the UTEMP system (12am, 4am, 8am, 12pm, 4pm, 8pm, June 10, 2015).

Figure 7. Comparison of air temperature between simulated results and observed data (AWSs).

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AWS 1 AWS 2 AWS 3 AWS 4 Mean

Adj. R2 0.941 0.966 0.923 0.978 0.952
RMSE ±1.00 ±0.75 ±1.15 ±0.76 ±0.91

B. Identifying air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes

As a result of analyzing the variations of air temperature due to urban spatial changes, the air temperature of scenario 1
(existing condition) ranged from 18.57 to 37.03℃ with an average temperature of 25.82℃, and scenario 2 (applying green
roofs) ranged from 18.62 ° C to 36.69 °C with an average temperature of 25.77 °C. In case of Scenario 3 (maximum
development), air temperature was distributed from 19.04℃ to 38.05℃ with an average temperature of 26.24℃ (Figure 7).
When the maximum green roofs were introduced in the study area, the average temperature decreased by 0.07℃ and the
maximum temperature reduction effect was the highest at 11:00 am with 0.45℃. Such an air temperature reduction effects due
to green roofs application is similar with the other research results of Gromke et al. (2015), Wang, Berardi & Akbari (2016),
Kim and Oh (2018), and Ng et al. (2012). On the other hand, if the individual buildings in the study are developed to the
maximum density, the difference of the average temperature is estimated to increase by about 0.35°C. Such air temperature
difference is highest at 4:00 pm with 1.27°C.
Through scenario analyses, this study investigated air temperature variations according to urban spatial changes. The case
study results suggest that to improve the thermal environment of the study area, additional urban development should be strictly
controlled and green roofs should be expanded as much as possible.

Figure 8. Comparison of simulated air temperature on each scenario (24hours); Left: Air temperature ranges of Scenario 1 and Scenario 2; Right: Air
temperature ranges of Scenario 1 and Scenario 3.

Figure 9. Comparison of simulated air temperature between Scenario 1 (left) and Scenario 2 (right) (at 11am).

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 75 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Figure 10. Comparison of simulated air temperature between Scenario 1 (left) and Scenario 3 (right) (at 11am).


As a result of applying the UTEMP system to the area where the heat island phenomenon occurs frequently in the city of
Seoul, it was found that the air temperature simulation results were fairly similar to real observations. In addition, this study
identified air temperature variations according to characteristics of urban spatial changes.
Based on the case study results, the UTEMP system was found to have the following usefulness: First, the UTEMP system
showed a simulation error RMSE ± 0.91, so it can be useful for urban meteorological analysis. Previous mathematical model
including the urban canopy model or meso-scale model assumed an urban area has a similar homogeneous array of buildings
or an urban canopy layer that has roughness. The thermal environment analysis engine of the UTEMP system considers urban
structure to be a morphological type on the district scale-level (between meso-scale and micro-scale), so it reflects urban spatial
characteristic more concretely.
Secondly, the UTEMP system enables analyzing of differentiated results of air temperature both for the change of the
land cover type such as rooftop greening, and the change of microscopic urban space such as the location and the shape of the
building. The result of this temperature analysis suggests that it can be used as a scientific planning tool which considers
thermal environment improvement of urban planning and design.
Third, by combining a GIS engine and thermal environment analysis engine, the UTEMP system developed in this study
makes it easier for non-expert users related to the climate field to analyze urban meteorological phenomena. Unlike previously
developed climate modeling tools, GIS files which are mainly used in the urban planning and design field, can be directly
inputted to the system without tedious pre-processing, and such an abbreviated process enables the climate analysis to be more
efficient. Such characteristics of this system have the advantage of instantly reflecting the changed alternatives by the urban
planning and designing process to the modeling and confirms the results.
On the other hand, the further research is needed to expand the usefulness of system. For instance, first, more in-depth
verification is needed by applying the UTEMP system to diverse urban spaces with different characteristics. In addition to
rooftop greening, it is necessary to investigate the effects of other heat reduction measures (wind corridor creation, cool roofs
and pavement, etc.), which have recently been attracting attention as countermeasures to reduce urban heat islands. Finally, if
the applicability of UTEMP is verified in both the micro and macro-scale urban areas, the utilization of the system will be
further increased.

This research was supported by a grant (18ADUP-B102560-04) from the Architecture & Urban Development Research
Program (AUDP) funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of the Korean government.

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Gromke, C., Blocken, B., Janssen, W., Merema, B., van Hooff, T. & Timmermans, H. 2015, 'CFD analysis of transpirational cooling by vegetation: Case
study for specific meteorological conditions during a heat wave in Arnhem, Netherlands', Building and Environment, vol. 83, pp. 11-26.
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(UCMap) system in Beijing', Building and Environment, vol. 92, pp. 668-78.
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(WRF-ARW)', Seoul Studies, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 39-57.
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Comparison of land-use change models for Mae Sot special economic

zone in Tak province
Chavanavesskul, S.
Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences, Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok, Thailand;
Abstract—The development of special economic zone, Mae Sot, Tak province is a gateway connecting Thailand economy
through Myawaddy city, Karen state, Myanmar with Mawlamyine, Yangon, Myanmar, India, and the south of China. The
government remarkably supports several basic infrastructure projects, such as Tanaosri - Kawkareik road construction at
section 2-3 of Motorway number 12, Thai-Myanmar Friendship bridge II construction, Mae Sot airport expansion and
development, and public sectors collaboration in constructing mega department stores, for example, Robinson, Makro, Tesco,
Boutique hotels, Medium-size resorts, and Condominiums. These investments have never appeared in Tak province before.
For this reason, these land-use changes may affect some factors influencing the environment of Mae Sot district, Tak province.
This research aims to study land-use changes and predict the land-use changes in the next 20 years by using the CA-Markov
model comparing with Land Change Modeler (LCM). The study area is Mae Sot special economic zone covers 128 square
kilometres. As a result, the built-up areas have increased, while the forestry and agricultural areas have decreased continuously
in the last 30 years (from 1988-2017). It is found that the constructions have expanded along the main road, in particular, the
road connected between Mae Sot, Tak and Myawaddy, Myanmar. The construction areas have increased by 23.77%. In
contrast, the forestry and agricultural areas in Myawaddy, Myanmar have decreased by 21.61% and 4.52% respectively.
Furthermore, the results of the land-use change prediction from the CA-Markov model and LCM do not show any difference
from the previous changes. Generally, the forestry areas and water bodies have changed to be agricultural areas, and community
areas, as well as, the agricultural areas have changed to the community areas. It can be concluded that the results from those
two models present the difference in term of the size of each land-use type, which is less than 1 square kilometres.
Keywords—urbanisation, land-use change monitoring model, Mae Sot special economic zone


T HIS research aims to study the changes in land use and to forecast the land use changes by using land-use monitoring
model and compare the CA-Markov model with the Land Chang Modeler in the special economic zone, Mae Sot, Tak
A. Literature Review
1) Special Economic Zone
Special Economic Zone is an area with special laws for the benefit of promoting, facilitating, and providing some
privileges in industrial, commercial, and service activities in Thailand. As an economic hub, this zone has been promoted for
investment, export to reduce operating cost, advanced technology to produce domestic products, and employment in Thailand.
Special economic zones often focus on industries that require large numbers of workers. (Government House, 2014;
International Institute for Trade and Development, 2014; Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board,
2015). It is clearly shown that preparing for a special economic zone always affects the urbanisation of that area.
2) Urbanisation process
Urbanisation is a process of changes both spatially and socially. It is a change from rural society to urban society regarding
spatial and social factors, such as expansion and improvement of transportation, expansion of workplaces and mobility of
labour, and expansion of housing and utilities. Government policy, economic development, size of the city, the number of
residents, and the urban fringe are the complex holistic-relationships showing the acceptance of changes (Krit, 1993; Daranee,
1996). Urbanisation can trace with land use change model (Chudech, 2017).


Land-use monitoring models have been developed consequently by development planners over the past 20 years.
Currently, there are many land-use monitoring models used in studying the land-use phenomena, predict the tendency of
changes from potentially physical-economic-social factors and predict the urbanisation or special economic zone, which is
designated as a development area for economic development. In this study, the CA-Markov Model and Land Change Modeler
(LCM) was selected to study the changes, to predict the land use, and to compare these models.
A. Cellular Automata Markov model (CA-Markov model)
CA-Markov Model is a model that analyses the land-use changes spatially temporally based on Markov Model and CA
(Cellular Automata). The CA-Markov Model can be used to analyse several kinds of land-use variables and patterns. This
model is suitable for monitoring the land-use and land-cover changes due to the applicability in creating raster model. It
requires only two temporal data to create the probability of changes in metric form to predict the land-use changes in the future,

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Future land-use = Vj x Pjk

𝑃𝑃1,1 𝑃𝑃1,2 … 𝑃𝑃1,𝑚𝑚…
= [V1, V2, V3,…Vm]2 x � 𝑃𝑃2,1 𝑃𝑃2,2 … 𝑃𝑃2,𝑚𝑚… �
𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚,1 𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚,2 … 𝑃𝑃𝑚𝑚,𝑚𝑚…
= [V1, V2, V3,…Vm]3
Where Vj is the annual years of land use, Pjk is the probability of changing at the time j and k.

However, human decision making is another factor regardless of the CA-Markov Model. Furthermore, the rules of change are
often determined at the local scale )Hyandye and Martz (2017), Kumar, Radhakrishnan, and Mathew (2014), Chudech (2017)).
B. Land Change Modeler (LCM)
Land Change Modeler is a Hybrid Model developed to optimise the efficiency of land use simulation based on two
temporal land-use data comparison with a simulation and probability of each land-use type. Apart from physical and temporal
factors, it is applicable with the determination of demographic factors and social factors derived from human decision makings,
such as government policy, development plan of the private sector, and community. Generally, population and social factors
are interrelated and often affecting the land-use changes. In term of the analysis result, it is performed in the probability matric
of each land-use type. The LCM analyses the relationships by using Cramer’s V, where the Cramer’s V value is greater than
0.15, which shows that the factors have influenced the change. Moreover, the LCM typically uses MLP (Multi-Layer
Perceptron) to create the potential areas of each type of the land-use change in the future )Clarks Labs (2013), Nadnicha,
Onanong, Kasem, and Surachai (2016)).
Therefore, the determined Mae Sot Special Economic Zone, Tak Province by the Government definitely causes the
urbanisation and land-use changes in the present and future.


1. Explore Mae Sot Special Economic Zone, Tak Province (Figure 1). This study area covers 128 km2 in Tambon Mae
Sot, and some parts of Mah Pa, Tambon Tha Sai Luad, Tambon Mae Taw, Tambon Phra That Pha Daeng, Amphoe Tak,
including the connected area between Mae Sot border and Myawaddy, Myanmar (Sutatip, 2018).

Figure 1. Study area.

2. Prepare Landsat 5 satellite images. These images were adjusted the spectral and geometric correction in order to reduce
the ambiguity of images from atmospheric distortion and wrong signal. These images were rectified, in corresponding with
the geographical coordinate system and enhanced the quality of data to sharpen the distinction of objects on the images. The
land-use classification is categorised into five classes, 1) Forest area 2) Agricultural area 3) Community area 4) Water source
and 5) Miscellaneous areas. Six field surveys validated each land-use class, therefore, the total number of the validation
regarding all classified land-use types was 30 field surveys with averagely 80% accuracy. The most accurate data is the
agriculture and community area (100% accuracy), while the most impoverished data is the forest area (50% accuracy).

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Survey Points (2017)
Land use
Forest areas Agriculture areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas Total
Forest areas 3 - - - - 3
Agriculture areas 2 6 - 1 2 11
Community areas 1 - 6 - - 7
Water areas - - - 5 - 5
Miscellaneous areas - - - - 4 4
Total 6 6 6 6 6 30

Correspond 3 6 6 5 4

% of accuracy 50 100 100 83.33 66.67 80

3. The temporal land-use data were selected in 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2018. Almost all temporal data were defined before
the declaration of Mae Sot Special Economic Zone (SEZ), Tak Province, but 2018. The predictions of land-use change duration
were made in every ten years, as in 2027 and 2037 by using land-use monitoring models, CA-Markov model and Land Change
Modeler (LCM).

A. The land-use changes
It is clearly shown that the land use in Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province has changed every ten years over the last 30 years
(1988 to 2018). The agricultural and forestry areas have decreased continuously, contrast with the increase of community
areas, water areas, and miscellaneous areas. For instance, the community areas have increased by 9.12% each year. The water
areas have increased by 2.35% each year. As same as, the miscellaneous lands have increased by 2.63% each year. In contrast,
the forestry areas have declined 3.01% each year. The agricultural areas have decreased by 0.24% each year. The urbanisation
has expanded and rapidly grown since October 2010 due to the development policy of Mae Sot SEZ. The expansion directions
of the old communities to the new communities appear along the major and minor transportation lines, in particular, the Thai-
Myanmar Friendship Bridge (Table 2 Figure 2).

Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province (Area: Km2)

Land-use Yearly
Changes from
1988 1998 2008 2018 change
rates (%)
Forestry areas 30.70 21.04 7.07 3.02 (-)27.68
(23.98%) (16.43%) (5.52%) (2.36%) (-21.63%)

Agricultural areas1 82.19 85.12 86.48 76.39 (-)5.8

(64.21%) (66.50%) (67.56%) (59.68%) (-4.53%)

Community areas2 11.12 17.13 28.67 41.55 30.43

(8.69%) (13.38%) (22.40%) (32.46%) (23.77%)

Water areas 1.16 1.38 1.95 1.97 0.82

(0.90%) (1.08%) (1.53%) (1.54%) (0.64%)

Miscellaneous areas3 2.83 3.33 3.83 5.06 2.24

(2.21%) (2.60%) (2.99%) (3.96%) (1.75%)

128.00 128.00 128.00 128.00

(100.00%) (100.00%) (100.00%) (100.00%)

Source: Analysed from Landsat5 images; Note: Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge; 1 Agricultural areas: Paddy fields, perennials, fruit orchards
and horticultural crops; 2 Community areas: Towns and commercial areas, residences, transportation stations, other buildings and golf courses; 3
Miscellaneous areas: Meadows and woodlands, marsh and water areas, mines, ponds and miscellaneous areas.

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1988 1998 2008 2018

Figure 2. Land-use map of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province from 1988 to 2018. Source: Analysed from Landsat 5 images.

B. Land-use change prediction by CA-Markov model comparing with Land Change Modeler (LCM).
1) Land-use prediction by CA-Markov model
Predicting land-use in 2027 and 2037 was based on land-use data in 2008 and 2018 by using the CA-Markov model. The
result contains 82.76% accuracy. In 2027, the results of the analysis are the proportion of changes (Table 3) and the probability
of changes (Table 4) from the CA-Markov model.

Proportion of land-use changes in 2027

Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas

Forestry areas 0.9693 0.6957 0.3951 - 0.936

Agricultural areas - 64.026 10.5498 0.0972 1.7343

Community areas - - 41.544 0.0054 -

Water areas - 0.0396 0.0243 1.8369 0.0594

Miscellaneous areas - 1.6137 2.0043 0.0531 1.377

Probability of Land-use changes in 2027

Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas

Forestry areas 0.3237 0.2323 0.1318 - 0.3123

Agricultural areas - 0.8380 0.1381 0.0013 0.0227

Community areas - - 0.9999 0.0001 -

Water areas - 0.0200 0.0124 0.9374 0.0302

Miscellaneous areas - 0.3196 0.3971 0.0105 0.2728

In 2037, the results of the analysis are the proportion of changes (Table 5) and the probability of changes (Table 6) from
CA-Markov model.

Proportion of Land-use changes in 2037

Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas

Forestry areas 0.1404 1.6893 0.8406 0.0135 0.3123

Agricultural areas 0.135 56.6901 17.3871 0.5742 1.6209

Community areas - - 41.5494 - -

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Water areas - 0.0468 0.0279 1.8054 0.0783

Miscellaneous areas 0.0018 2.3202 2.0448 0.0630 0.6183

Probability of Land-use changes in 2037

Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas

Forestry areas 0.0468 0.5637 0.2807 0.0044 0.1043

Agricultural areas 0.0018 0.7419 0.2276 0.0075 0.0212

Community areas - - 1.0000 - -

Water areas - 0.0241 0.0141 0.9216 0.0402

Miscellaneous areas 0.0004 0.4596 0.405 0.0125 0.1225

Therefore, it is found that the major areas of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province are the agricultural land (51.93%), followed by
the community area (42.59%), miscellaneous areas (3.21%), water body (1.51%) and forest area (0.76%) respectively in 2027.
In 2037, it is found that the major areas of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak province area the community area (48.34%), followed by
agricultural land (47.49%), miscellaneous areas (2.03%), water body (1.92%) and forest area (0.22%) respectively. The highest
increasing proportion is the water body, which has increased 1.37% per year, followed by the community area, which has
increased by 0.67% per year, while the forest area has decreased by 3.54% per year, followed by miscellaneous areas, which
have decreased by 1.84% per year, and the agricultural area, which has decreased by 0.43% per year. Remarkably, the
communities will continually expand along the main transportation routes and around Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge (Table
7 and Figure 3).

Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province (Area: Km2)
2027 2037 Changes from 1988-2018 Yearly change rates (%)

Forestry areas 0.97 0.28 (-)0.69

(0.76%) (0.22%) (-0.54%)

Agricultural areas1 66.47 60.79 (-)5.66

(51.93%) (47.49%) (-4.44%)

Community areas2 54.52 61.87 7.35

(42.59%) (48.34%) (5.74%)

Water areas 1.93 2.46 0.53

(1.51%) (1.92%) (0.41%)

Miscellaneous areas3 4.11 2.60 (-)1.51

(3.21%) (2.03%) (-1.18%)

128.00 128.00
(100.00%) (100.00%)

Source: Analysed from CA-Markov model; Note: Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge; 1 Agricultural areas: Paddy fields, perennials, fruit orchards
and horticultural crops; 2 Community areas: Towns and commercial areas, residences, transportation stations, other buildings and golf courses;
Miscellaneous areas: Meadows and woodlands, marsh and water areas, mines, ponds and miscellaneous areas.

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2027 2037
Figure 3. Land-use map of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province from 2027 to 2037.
Source: Analysed from CA-Markov model

2) Land-use prediction by Land Change Modeler (LCM)

The prediction of land-use changes in 2027 and 2037 was made based on the land-use data in 2008 and 2018. It also
considers physical factors, such as DEM, slope, aspect, village distance, road distance, stream distance, and social factors,
such as Government policy and population density. The analysis results of the Land Change Modeler contain 83.91% accuracy
averagely. In 2027, the results of the analysis are the proportion of change (Table 8) and the probability of the change (Table
9) from LCM.
Proportion of land-use changes in 2027

Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas

Forestry areas 0.9702 0.6957 0.3951 - 0.936

Agricultural areas - 64.0296 10.5516 0.099 1.7343
Community areas - - 41.5449 0.0045 -
Water areas - 0.0396 0.0243 1.8369 0.0594
Miscellaneous areas - 1.6137 2.0043 0.0531 1.377

Probability of land-use changes in 2027

Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas

Forestry areas 0.3237 0.2323 0.1318 - 0.3123

Agricultural areas - 0.8380 0.1381 0.0013 0.0227

Community areas - - 0.9999 0.0001 -

Water areas - 0.0200 0.0124 0.9374 0.0302

Miscellaneous areas - 0.3196 0.3971 0.0105 0.2728

In 2037, the results of the analysis are the proportion of change (Table 10) and the probability of the change (Table 11)
from LCM.

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Proportion of land-use changes in 2037

Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas

Forestry areas 0.1404 1.6893 0.8406 0.0135 0.3123

Agricultural areas 0.1377 56.6865 17.3907 0.5733 1.6200
Community areas - - 41.5494 - -
Water areas - 0.0468 0.0279 1.8054 0.0792
Miscellaneous areas - 2.3202 2.0448 0.063 0.6201

Probability of land-use changes in 2037

Forestry areas Agricultural areas Community areas Water areas Miscellaneous areas

Forestry areas 0.0468 0.5637 0.2807 0.0044 0.1043

Agricultural areas 0.0018 0.7419 0.2276 0.0075 0.0212

Community areas - - 1.0000 - -

Water areas - 0.0241 0.0141 0.9216 0.0402

Miscellaneous areas 0.0004 0.4596 0.405 0.0125 0.1225

Therefore, it is found that the major areas of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province are the agricultural area (51.88%), followed by
the community area (42.59%), miscellaneous areas (3.21%), water body (1.56%) and forest area (0.76%) respectively in 2027.
In 2037, the major areas of Mae Sot SEZ are the agricultural area (48.32%), followed by the miscellaneous areas (2.06%),
water body (1.92%) and forest area (0.22%) respectively. The highest proportion of increasing area is the water body, which
has increased 1.16% per year, followed by the community area, which has increased by 0.67% per year, whereas the forest
area has decreased by 3.57% per year, followed by miscellaneous areas, which has decreased by 1.80% per year, and the
agricultural area, which has decreased by 0.42% per year. The expansion of the communities will continually expand along
the main transportation routes and around Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge (Table 12 and Figure 4).

Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province (Area : Km2)
2027 2037 Changes from 1988-2018 Yearly change rates (%)
Forestry areas 0.97 0.28 (-)0.69
(0.76%) (0.22%) (-0.54%)

Agricultural areas1 66.41 60.78 (-)5.63

(51.88%) (47.48%) (-4.40%)

Community areas2 54.52 61.85 7.33

(42.59%) (48.32%) (5.73%)

Water areas 1.99 2.46 0.46

(1.56%) (1.92%) (0.36%)

Miscellaneous areas3 4.11 2.63 (-)1.48

(3.21%) (2.06%) (-1.15%)

128.00 128.00
(100.00%) (100.00%)

Source: Analysed from LCM; Note: Thai-Myanmar Friendship Bridge; 1 Agricultural areas: Paddy fields, perennials, fruit orchards and horticultural
crops; 2 Community areas: Towns and commercial areas, residences, transportation stations, other buildings and golf courses; 3 Miscellaneous areas:
Meadows and woodlands, marsh and water areas, mines, ponds and miscellaneous areas.

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2027 2037
Figure 4. Land-use map of Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province from 2027 to 2037. Source: Analysed from LCM

C. Comparison of the CA-Markov model and Land Change Modeler (LCM).

Regarding the prediction of land-use changes in 2027 and 2037 by using the CA-Markov model and the LCM based on
the analysis results in 1988 and 1998, it is found that the tendency and direction of land-use changes of those two forecasting
years are the same. Generally, the forest area and water body will be changed to the agricultural area and community area.
Extraordinarily, those models, CA-Markov model and LCM, show the differentiation of spatial data of each land-use type less
than one km2. It is found that the spatial differentiation of both two models in 2027 is higher than those in 2037. Considering
those models, the agricultural area and water body differ around 0.06 km2 in 2027. In contrast, those models show greater
differentiation in the agricultural area, community area, and miscellaneous areas in 2037 (Table 13).

Mae Sot SEZ, Tak Province (Area: Km2)

Land-use CA-Markov LCM
2027 2038 2027 2038 2027 2037

Forestry areas 0.97 0.28 0.97 0.28 - -

(0.76%) (0.22%) (0.76%) (0.22%)
Agricultural areas1
66.47 60.79 66.41 60.78 0.06 0.01
(51.93%) (47.49%) (51.88%) (47.48%) (0.05%) (0.01%)
Community areas2 54.52 61.87 54.52 61.85 - 0.02
(42.59%) (48.34%) (42.59%) (48.32%) - (0.02%)

Water areas 1.93 2.46 1.99 2.46 0.06 -

(1.51%) (1.92%) (1.56%) (1.92%) (0.05%)
Miscellaneous areas 3
4.11 2.60 4.11 2.63 - 0.03
(3.21%) (2.03%) (3.21%) (2.06%) (0.03%)
Total 128.00 128.00 128.00 128.00
(100.00%) (100.00%) (100.00%) (100.00%)

It is confirmed that it is not different to use either the CA-Markov model or Land Change Modeler (LCM) to predict the
land-use changes in Mae Sot SEZ, Tak province. It is also found that,
1. The accuracy of those two models is pretty high, the CA-Markov model provides 82.76% accuracy, and the LCM
provides 83.91% accuracy.
2. Although two social factors have been added to the analysis, the LCM still shows the similar results as the CA-Markov
model. Likewise, the size of analysed areas from those two models is not different. It might be the limited size of the study
area, where is rather small so that the classes of land-use are not classified finely.
3. The addition of social factors in the LCM model is not sufficient to clearly distinguish spatial variations in the study

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Therefore, the potential factors influencing the land-use changes would be considered adding into the models, for
example, disaster risk factors, Government policy, economic factors. Alternatively, a more extensive study area and finer land-
use classes would be recommended in the future study.

The research received support from the grant of Srinakharinwirot University, Bangkok, Thailand. Researchers would like to
convey this gratitude to the university for this research funding.

Chudech Losiri. (2017). Land Use Change Model and Urban Area Prediction in the Future. Journal of Social Sciences, 19, 340-357.
Clark Labs. (2013) IDRISI Spotlight: The Land Change Modeler. Massachusetts, Clark University.
Daranee Tawilpipatkul. (1996) The process of urbanisation and social change. Bangkok, Chulalongkorn University.
Government House. (2014) Results of the Special Economic Development Board (NRP) meeting. [Online] Available from:
[Accessed 1st June 2017].
Hyandye C. and Martz, L. (2017) A Markovian and cellular automata land-use change predictive model of the Usangu Catchment. International Journal of
Remote Sensing. [Online] 38 (1), 64-81. Available from: doi:10.1080/01431161.20016.1259675 [Accessed 1st June 2017].
International Institute for Trade and Development. (2014) Guidelines and Measures for the Development of Special Economic Zones in Thai border. Policy
briefs on research projects. Bangkok.
Kumar, S., Radhakrishnan, N., and Mathew, S. (2014) Land use change modelling using a Markov model and remote sensing. Geomatics, Natural Hazards
and Risk, [Online] 5 (2), 145-156. Available from: doi: 10.1080/19475705.2013.795502 [Accessed 1st June 2017].
Nadnicha P., Onanong P., Kasem C., and Surachai R. (2016) The Effect of Land Use Changes on Landslide in the High Slope Area at Surat Thani Province.
KKU Science Journal, 44 (1), 212-221
Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board. (2015) Development of Special Economic Zones in Thailand. [Online] Available from: [Accessed 1st June 2017].
Sutatip Chavanavesskul. (2018) The Impact of Mae Sot’s Special Economic Zone on Climate Change (abstract). 2018 Asia Global Land Programme
Conference: Transitioning to Sustainable Development of Land Systems through Teleconnections and Telecoupling. On September 3-5, 2018.
Taiwan, Taipei

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Chapter 2.

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Urban area and population change in a new autonomous city in

Indonesia: Evidence Banjar Municipality
Supriyadi, A.,1 Wang, T.,1 Chu, S.,1 Ma, T.,1 and Shaumirahman, R.G.2
School of Geographic Science, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China
Urban regional and planning, Engineering Faculty, Pasundan University, Bandung, Indonesia
Abstract—The resume of the Habitat III Conference of cities on 20 October 2016 had emphasized the increasing of an urban
population where concentrated in the cities, hence many studies were conduct in a big city or metropolitan city and very limited
research in a new autonomous city. This paper was conduct to release the evidence about land use and population density
change in a new autonomy city through Google Earth and ArcGIS tool. The Google Earth image series is one of a good solution
to describe the land use change since particularly in the small area. The result has shown that Banjar Municipality urban area
had increased from 13.49% to 15.41% while agricultural area decreased to 69.87%. The interesting part is the city forest only
small part of them had an impact by the development of the city, and although it is a small number of the percentage around
0.3% the area of the lake had increased since the local authority built a new artificial lake. Another interesting finding based
on the land use change and population data is the urban area change mostly happened in Banjar and Langensari District, not
in the Pataruman area, which considered as the highest population increased in the last 11 years of the period.
Keywords—urban area, land use, population density change, autonomy city, Google earth


T HE rapid changes in the development of the world have influenced the paradigm of development systems in every
country. According to the resume of the Habitat III Conference of cities on 20 October 2016, it was emphasized urban
population in the world predicted will increase significantly in the middle of the century. In this situation, urban problems will
be concentrated in the cities such as socio-economic and cultural problem as well as environmental and humanitarian problems.
Moreover, (Li et al, 2017) on the paper highlighted that the situation indicated four of every five people would be living in
town or cities and raise the challenges in populations and socio-economic activities such as housing, infrastructure, food
security, and many more aspects. The largest area in the world of the population with large built-up areas are in Asian Countries
with 57.7% proportion, and the second is North America countries 12.4% followed African countries 11.4% and Europe with
9.8% of the proportion of the world (Demographia, 2018).
After the financial crisis hampered Asian by the year 1997, there is a massive transformation in many populous countries
such as China, India, and Indonesia. One of tangible evidence is Indonesia where for a decade of 2000 and 2010 cities in
Indonesia are grown faster compared to any other countries in Asia. Since the transformation of the country from rural and
agricultural based, cities in Indonesia are growing faster compared to any other countries in Asia. During the same period,
according to the World Bank data, Indonesia’s population increased at an average 4.1 % compared to 3.8 % in China, 3.1% in
India and 2.8 % in Thailand (World Bank, 2016). It is interesting to note that at the same period of the year the amount of new
urban land added per new urban resident was less than 40 square meters, which is the smallest amount of any country in the
region (World Bank, 2016), thus it is undeniable that Indonesia will encounter big problem in many facets. There is shred
evidence that there is no country has developed without the growth of its cities or in other word Urbanization is associated
strongly with income level globally (World Bank, 2016). Imbalance spread of the living inhabitant highly contributed to the
significant gap between the increase of population and the availability of new urban resident.
Some cities quite developed when it is located outskirts of major cities or in another word they have a dependency on the
main city, particularly in a small and medium city. Thus it can be concluded that the city development influence not only by
urbanization, but also others factors such nature comparative advantages (topography, natural resources, historical) and
construction development (infrastructure network, social facilities) (Prawatya NA, 2013). Furthermore, the pattern of the
spatial development in urban population have shown as evident of new phenomenon of urban development in Indonesia
especially in Java island where most Indonesian population were living, the tendency of the development of urban corridors
that connect between big cities such as Serang-Jakarta-Karawang corridor, Jakarta-Bandung corridor, Cirebon-Semarang
corridor, Semarang- Yogyakarta, and the Surabaya-Malang corridor, where the formation of corridors is nearly unclear
differences between urban areas and rural areas (Prawatya NA, 2013).
In different research Ardiwijaya et al. (2015) explained that suburbanization causes the urban growth which is randomly
spread/sprawl, and the grown is uncontrollable. Furthermore, suburbanization made the boundaries between urban and rural
areas getting blurred and difficult to distinguish. Socio-economic changes and innovations encourage the transition of land use
to an area over a period (Long, 2007). Quantity, structure and spatial patterns of land use, which are similar to landscape
structures are examples of dominant land use morphology (Long, 2007). One of the evidence in China is about the development
of a rural area that one of the critical things to achieve the success of rural construction and land consolidation programs is it
is done through a trial and error approach. Furthermore, local inhabitants are given the opportunity to take part in decision-
making for the program that will affect their future (Fang, YG, et al, 2016). Based on the evidence, we can see that empowering
local authorities and inhabitants are very important to achieve the goal of the program in another word by giving local
authorities and local inhabitant more opportunity to decide their future gives significant impact to the success of the

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The urban area is an area dominated by a human-built environment, where it combines all non-vegetative elements,
including roads, buildings, runways, industrial facilities, etc. (Potere, 2009). In an urban analysis, there is often a discrepancy
between planned developments by municipal governments and actual growth occurring in the field in many cities in the
developing countries (Hadi et al, 2016). The condition usually happened when the development of the city was intervened by
the political purpose especially when the national or local leader changed. Urban land use change is one of the vital keys to
understand the success of development planning and to evaluate how is the spread of urban area including to draw the
correlation with a socio-economic aspect. The gap development between urban and rural area becomes one of the factors
influence the migration of people from an undeveloped area into a more developed area. Since then, there is a growing concern
to deal with this situation with the spread of infrastructure development, which expected to stimulate the economic
development in the rural area including by empowering local authorities to develop local area. Many studies have been done
in several countries about the impact of urbanization on environment and land use impact in big cities but insufficient study in
a new autonomous city, which is closer to rural area, in fact, it is hard to find the study that presenting urban area changes
since the city had been changed into a new autonomy city.
The limitation of free satellite imagery found out in many studies it has limitation mainly to get the high and the latest
image and resolution, meanwhile to get a higher resolution sometimes it is almost not possible due to the security reason.
Google earth imagery is one of the good solutions since it is an open source and provides a clear view of buildings, roads, etc.
hence can be best utilized for urban-related applications (Malarvizhi, et al, 2016).
The use of remote sensing and GIS analysis in urban-related researches have been carried out in Indonesia since early
2000. These techniques in the last 4 years being used to understand the environmental and socio-economic conditions of
Semarang urban (Widyasamratri et al., 2013), urban growth and its relation to population (Handayani & Rudiarto, 2014).
Urban growth and land use modelling (Hadi et al, 2016) but still very limited the research that conducted in a new autonomous
city. This study was conducted in response to the limitation of literature about the urban area and population changes in a new
autonomy city particularly in Indonesia by using Google earth image series and ArcGIS tool with the primary purpose is to
draw and describe the urban area change and population density in the year 2016. We have chosen Banjar Municipality as a
study area since the unique of the city. Although it was administratively named as Banjar Municipality the authority of the
area also consists of villages and at that period was the only city with this uniqueness. However, as it happens in a developing
country, where the map of land use change is not well established, Banjar Municipality also does not have land use change


A. Autonomous city in a response of the globalization era in Indonesia
Globalization is a series of the unity of processes of structurization and stratification, multifaceted social phenomena by
removing political boundaries or can be associated with the deterritorialization and reterritorialization of socio, economic and
political space. However, the influence of globalization is undeniable in almost every aspect of society in the world. In the age
of development of technology, the world seems has no boundary, the world becoming closer, the information getting more and
more accessible compared to the previous era (Held et al, 1999). The influence of globalization has a positive and negative
impact for Indonesia, the positive impact that can be seen is the development of Indonesian society and improve the civilization
of Indonesian society without eliminating the real Indonesian culture. While the negative impacts that arise and are very
damaging are the occurrence of wars and internal conflicts, especially on the transition from the old globalization with a new
era of globalization (Pannenungi, 2013).
The economic rivalry and the threat of national unity are two fundamental problems faced in the era of globalization by
the countries of the world (Yuniarto, 2014). The world and market are integrated and connected into a condition where
virtually no physical boundaries between them constitute one of the traits in the globalization. One of the impacts of
globalization in Indonesia was trade liberalization in 1990 and showed that this condition had a significant impact on the
decline in child labor between the ages of 10 and 15 years. In other words, globalization contributes to the decrease in child
labor exploitation (Kiz-Katos & Sparrow, 2009). The development of technology and the increase of social and economic
interaction among humans and organization will lead to the new era where state and their physical control of force will no
longer be relevant (Keohane & Nye, 2000). Moreover, a result of the low cost of communication and transformation that
enables population mobility and cross-border communications. Thus, the world is integrated globally in various fields both
social, political, and more so in the economy, as well as the environment. Global flows of commodities, information, capital,
and people, as well as factors in distant markets, are increasingly the impetus of the land use changes. This condition is often
associated with growing consumer class in the growing developing world.
By the year of 2005 when Indonesia was implementing the new reformation era, Indonesia was ranked 9 in a new
globalization index with the score 18,02 in Asian Countries followed by Japan with the score 17,71 (Vujakovic, 2010). It is
undeniable that there is a high connection between globalization and other social-economic phenomena such as poverty,
economic growth, development, inequality, and living standards.
Globalization no longer discussing at the national level where inter-state nearly has no partition (state borderless), it has
moved into the lower level region, such as provinces, districts or cities in a country. In other words, it can be concluded that
regional autonomy is also closely linked to the globalization that has emerged in the 70s and 80s in the United States. Since
the decentralization and regional autonomy was raised in Indonesia, it is facing a stumbling block where the development of

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the new autonomy region need to respond borderless era in their region planning (Rifai, 2017). Globalization does not yet have
an established definition, except for a working definition, so it depends on the perspective of people see it.
The evidence has shown that an autonomous city tends to have a higher population growth rate compared to a non-
autonomous city. Thus improving the quality of government becomes very important in economic development (Stasavage,
2013). Furthermore, regional development and decentralized institution encourage local public authorities to be more active
in developing their environment with local-based wisdom has the most positive and measurable impact on improving
governance. In the governance of decentralization sometimes has raised new paradigm of the political governance where the
success of the development project is not measured by how many roads, schools or any other infrastructure were built but
measured by how the projects enhance the reputation of the political leaders who spend the projects fund. (Myerson, 2014).
The increase of regionalism in the framework of increasing economic growth and improvement is a pattern of
globalization, so to respond to the increase of regionalism gave birth to a policy of regional autonomy, especially in Indonesia.
There are some interesting pieces of evidence of the impact globalization and regional autonomy in Indonesia, one of the
examples is the impact of globalization and the policy of regional autonomy in Karawang regency West Java Province
Indonesia. The Karawang region is famous as a national rice granary, but since the regional autonomy implemented the city
changed toward manufacturing-based districts, this condition seemed to suppress the original culture of indigenous people
Karawang Regency the culture of farmers and fishermen into a factory and industrial workers (Rifai, 2017). Moreover, the
land use massive changes had impacted to the Karawang region from 2000 to 2015 such as the degradation of paddy fields
was 21,909 ha, while the expansion of pond area was 16,355 ha (Riadi et al, 2018).
B. Decentralization and regional autonomy in Indonesia
Before the independence day of Indonesia, historically the practice of decentralization in Indonesia has been tried in
applied with various motives behind it, especially the colonialist motive that seeks to maintain the efficiency of colonial trade
by keep limiting the power of local leaders. The first president of Indonesia tried to balance the system (Darmawan, RED.,
2008). In practice decentralization in Indonesia has been since 1945 and the Indonesian independence year governance was
governing centralized by the central government. In this case, all policies are controlled and regulated by the central
government. The province is an extension of the central government in the sense of not having the authority to regulate its
territory, while the local government is also very dependent on what the provincial government does and cannot carry out its
regional development initiatives.
In the year of 1974 Law No.5 concerning regional government (pemerintah daerah) was born which is as regulation the
relationship between the central and regional governments. It was formally based on the principle of decentralization,
deconcentration, and co-administration, but again in practice not fully implemented by the government, or in other words the
implementation can be said to be decentralized and regional autonomy has not been applied (Darmawan, RED., 2008).
Actually, in the beginning, the structure of provincial-level and local government in Indonesia is overriding goals of national
political integration and political stability. By the year 1997 when the financial crisis hampered Asian, Indonesia has
experienced a huge impact which was led to the resignation of the second president Soeharto. Since then there were massive
national political changes including in governance system which was named as reformation period in Indonesia. The
reformation has become a growing concern in all aspect of governance. One of the significant changes is the decentralization
system is implemented. In 1998 which is also known as a year of reforms under the threat of disintegration conditions and
pressure from international donor countries, government and DPR (Parliament) of that time drafted a decentralized law which
was considered more democratic and more just, so that the law was born no 22/1999 on Regional Government and invite no
25 on fiscal balance between central and local government. It was legalized in the same year but effectively implemented in
January 2001.
The territory of Indonesia after the regional autonomy law was effectively implemented divided into autonomous
provinces, districts or regency (Kabupaten) and municipalities (Kota). Districts and municipalities are technically at the same
level of government. This distinction is based on whether the government administration is located in a rural area (Regency)
or an urban area (Municipality). Within districts and municipalities, there are districts (Kecamatan) which are smaller
administrative government units. Each sub-district is further divided into villages. Villages in rural areas are called Desa, while
in urban areas they are referred to as Kelurahan.

Administrative Level 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 2014 2015

Province (provinsi) 27 27 27 26 33 33 34 34 34

Regency(kabupaten) 246 241 243 268 349 399 413 416 416
Municipality/City (kota) 55 55 62 73 91 98 98 98 98
District (kecamatan) 3,539 3,625 3,844 4,049 5,277 6,699 6,982 7,024 7,071
Village (desa) 67,534 67,033 65,852 69,050 69,868 77,548 80,714 81,626 81,936
Source: Biro Pusat Statistik (Statistical Bureau), Sixty Years of Indonesian Independence (Statistik 60 Tahun Indonesia Merdeka, Statistics to celebrate 60
years of independence of the Republic of Indonesia); Statistical Yearbook of Indonesia 2016

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Table 1 above indicates the addition of new autonomous regions provinces, districts, cities, and even villages changed
almost double in 2015 compared to the beginning of the period of implementation of regional autonomy. Decentralization is a
concept of a theory that is good enough and even tends to be perfect but does not appear to have advantages in the
implementation phase. The practice for decentralized policies to achieve optimal results requires a mature plan. The application
of the policy should be calculated along with a considerable capacity increase at the individual, institutional and system levels.
Implementation of the value of the decentralized in Indonesia is considered less successful since the data shows about 80% of
a new autonomous region are considered not reached the expected results (Faroek & Utama, 2014). Millers (2013) In her
research indicates that autonomous urban areas in Indonesia meet opportunities and challenges simultaneously. This condition
indicates that the regional division of authority to the regions encourages the growth and development of the city that is more
in line with the needs of the region itself. However, this condition also encourages the increase of competition between regions,
even more, the public service system becomes inclined to be concerned with the ego regionality.
Empiric evidence can be seen in small towns in Central Java are concentric structured have slow land development
because there is only a single activity center. On the other hand, Multiple nuclei structured small towns are quite developed
between moderate to high level. This is due to the existence of several centers within the small towns that resulted in high
development of built-up land Based on spatial typology pattern of small towns, it can be explained that the small towns located
on the outskirts of major cities such as Surakarta, Yogyakarta, Semarang, Tegal, Magelang, Salatiga, and Pekalongan, have a
dependency to those main cities (Prawatya, 2013).


A. Study Area
As the most populous Province in Indonesia West Java has become one of the important provinces to support the
development of Indonesia. By the year 2010 according to the national statistical bureau, the population of west java province
reach 43.227 million inhabitants and increase to 46.709 million inhabitants in the last five years. Banjar Municipality is one of
the new cities located in West Java Province, it’s located between 07 ° 19 '- 07 ° 26' South Latitude and 108 ° 26 '- 108 ° 40'
East Longitude. According to the law number 27 of 2002 on the Establishment of Banjar Municipality in West Java Province
the total area of Banjar Municipality is 13,197.23 Ha approximately 113.19 Km2. Since February 21, 2002, Banjar was
announced as an autonomous city which is inaugurated by the Minister of Home Affairs of Indonesia, Banjar Municipality has
been officially running as a new city for 15 years. In its development, Banjar Municipality located in a traffic lane between
West Java Province-Central Java-East Java, thus it is expected to grow as an industrial city, trade, service, and tourism for East
Region of West Java. The total population of Banjar Municipality according to the data from the Office of Population and
Civil Registration Agency in 2004 recorded 160,810 people with details of 79,115 people of male and 81,695 of a female. In
the development of Banjar Municipality residents from 2003 to 2004, it will get the population growth rate of Banjar
Municipality by 0.12 percent lower than the previous year's growth of 0.98 percent. The Population growth in several sub-
districts drives the population growth in general.
With an altitude between 20 up to 500 meters above sea level and tropical climate and become one of the mainstay areas
(i.e., areas capable of contributing to economic growth for the region and surrounding areas). Geohydrological Conditions
Banjar Municipality divided into several formations and units of rock with lithology as follows:
 Alluvium; spread in the area of Banjar Municipality that is in the flat morphology area.
 The frozen rocks are andesite in the form of lava that is the main hamlet (Gunung Sangkur complex and Babakan Mountain
complex) some minor hills (Pasir Tumpeng, Pasir Leutik, Pasir Kengkol, Pasir Gembok, and Mandalareh-Cadasgintung hills).
 The sediment lava, located west of the Babakan Mountain complex and on the undulating morphology of Purwaharja District
to the west.
 The tread formation, which consists of rough green sandstone (bottom), sandstone with napal insert (top) is in the western
part and the southern part of Banjar Municipality that is in District Banjar and Pataruman in the morphology of minor and
bumpy hills.
Soil fertility level in Banjar Municipality is generally moderate (good) with subtle fine soil texture with alluvial soil type
except for District Langensari besides having alluvial soil type also red yellow soil type although not affect the level of fertility
For hydrological conditions (surface water) Banjar Municipality, there are 2 major rivers are:
 Citanduy River (14.20 km)
 Ciseel River (15.22 km)
Watershed (DAS) is a stretch of territory bounded by a morphological barrier (ridge) that it receives. Collect rainwater,
sediment, and nutrients and drain it through the tributaries and out on the main river to the sea or lake. The city of Banjar has
4 watersheds,
 Citanduy Watershed
 Cijolang-Citapen watershed
 Ciseel-Cikembang-Cimaragas watershed
 Cilisung watershed
Banjar Municipality is a very unique city since it was announced as a new autonomous city, this city at that time is the
only city that administratively name Banjar Municipality but the government organization hierarchy consist of 4 Districts
(Kecamatan) and 16 Villages (Desa) or rural area, and it’s made the only one city from 98 cities in Indonesia that consist of

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villages/ rural area as its territory. Based on the land use map above, the land use change pattern in Banjar Municipality is
elongated pattern follows the path.
Massive development has been implemented since the city was established and it successfully increases its economic
growth. In the five years after the city officially established, the productivity growth rate of Banjar Municipality's agricultural
sector is relatively good, reaching an average of more than 4 percent per year, and is the second major contributor to the
economic growth rate of Banjar Municipality after a trade, hotels, and restaurants. The economic growth of Banjar
Municipality for the 2006 - 2010 period was positive, from 4.71 percent in 2006 to 4.93 percent in 2007 and slightly decreased
due to external factors in 2008 which only reached 4.82 percent, but in 2009 the economic growth of Banjar Municipality
skyrocketed to 5.13 percent and continued to move up by 5.28 percent in 2010. Banjar Municipality economic progress in
2010 is increasingly stretching since the start of the operation of Banjar Waterpark (BWP) entertainment services in the
Parunglesang area able to give domino effect by contributing to the growth of other businesses, such as the increase of trading
business units, new restaurants, and other services. This condition has influenced the urbanization, migration of the inhabitant
never the lest also has changed the configuration of spatial land use.
B. Data Source and Method
Since the District of Banjar became a new autonomous city in 2002, a new land use map was created in 2006 made by
the Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and Development Agency together with the Ministry of Public Works and Public
Housing of Indonesia. Based on this condition this research uses a basic map created by the Agency Regional Planning of
Banjar Municipality. The next step is to find out the changes of urban area in the year of 2016, we have tried to use technology
from free satellite imagery such as USGS and GLCF but we found out that since the area of the city is not big enough the
image we are facing the unclear image and all of the area is covered by green color so if we continue drawing the land use
change map the result will not valid, thus in this research we use the data image and population density 2006 and 2016. One
of the most effective and efficient solutions is to use Google Earth Image Series which can be accessed for free and provide a
clear view of buildings, roads, etc. and this can be best utilized for urban-related applications (Malarvizhi, et al, 2016).
The boundary of the study area using the digitized map from Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and Development
Agency boundary map. The digitizing of various land use classes was performed to prepare the land use map. The land use
classes that considered in this study were urban area/built-up area, city forest, agricultural area, and water bodies/lake. The
built-up area we define includes all buildings and roads; open land includes barren, rocky, scrubland and residential layouts;
agricultural area comprise vegetation and agricultural lands; lake area we define as a river, natural and artificial lake; city forest
we define as the forestry area. An essential advantage of Google Earth is that it provides images taken from different periods,
which can be used by urban planners to perform land use change detection analysis for free. The research was conduct by
collecting several images from different time periods and we select the clearest view image is the image of 2016.
The next step is the digitized map was converted from ArcGIS shapefile format (.shp) to Google Earth compatible format
(.kml). The Google earth was downloaded, and the digitation in .kml format was opened in Google earth as a boundary area
of study. After the image downloaded from google earth the image was converted from geographic coordinate system
(latitude/longitude) to projected coordinate system (northing/ easting) using Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection
in ArcGIS 10.2. The projection image was digitized to draw the land use change based on the criteria Urban/built-up area,
agricultural area, city forest, and water body/lake. In this step, it was started by digitizing map Banjar Municipality boundary
and the next is step to cut polygon for digitize a land use and followed by updating the map of 2016 by a cut polygon or using
shapefile each district.
To validate the map of each district was by doing confirmation to the local authority, including the validation of the area
by comparing the area that we got from digitation with the official area from the Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and
Development Agency and if there is any difference we re-digitizing the image until we got the best map that represented the
existing area (Figure 1 and 2). The population data we collect and analyze from the book of Banjar Municipality in figures
from 2006 to 2016 which was published by Central Statistics Bureau as follows (Table 2, Figure 3 and 4):
2006 2016
Sub-district Population Population Density Population Population Density
(person) (inhab.per km2) (person) (inhab.per.km2)
Banjar 48423 1846 58222 2219

Purwaharja 19711 1313 24108 1462

Pataruman 51348 950 61173 1205
Langensari 49430 1480 58259 1744
Total 168912 202362
Source: Biro Pusat Statistik Kota Banjar (Statistical Bureau Banjar Municipality), Banjar Municipality in figures 2006-2016

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Figure 1. Land use condition by the year of 2006.

Source: Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and Development Agency together with the Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing of Indonesia

Figure 2. Land use change by the year of 2016.

Source: Google earth, Banjar Municipality Regional Planning and Development Agency and analyzed by author

The data above have shown us that the increase of the population density almost spread in all sub-district. To draw a
density map, we explore the density data into a lower level of the government administrative such as Village (Desa) and Urban
Village (Kelurahan), the next part is divided into six classifications according to Sturgess Eq. 1 formula:

K = 1 + 3.33 log n Eq. 1

Where K is a classification of the density and n is the number of Village and urban village, then we use the classification

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as a boundary in Arcgis program to draw a density map. All the process can be seen in the flowchart below:

Figure 3. The process of drawing Land use change map of Banjar Municipality.

Figure 4. The process of drawing population density map of Banjar Municipality.


Since the City became an autonomous city there are massive changes in city development particularly in the urban area,
however, despite the developed urban area the increasing of the population density also becoming a high concern which has
pushed the agricultural area as we can see on the result below (Figure 5):

% percent

Agricultural Urban/ built
City forest Lake and river
area up Area
2006 71.22 13.49 9.87 5.42
2016 69.87 15.41 9.27 5.45
Figure 5. Land use change in Banjar Municipality in the year of 2006 and 2016.

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According to the table above we can see that the urban area in the last 11 (eleven) years since the Banjar Municipality
was becoming a new autonomy city had increased from 13.49% into 15.41% while agricultural area decreased into 69.87%.
The interesting part is the city forest only small part of them had an impact by the development of the city, and although it is
a small value around 0.3% the area of the lake had increased since there is the development of a new artificial lake by the local
government. The urban sprawl in Banjar municipality concentrated in two districts, namely Banjar and Langensari districts, it
is understandable since the infrastructure development policy from local authority based on city planning Banjar considered
as the city center and the District of Langensari is one of the Industrial areas. Except the increase of waterbody area, the most
part of the changes hampered the agricultural area in both districts.
Despite the most of the change of urban area located in the two districts as mention before the urban change in Banjar
Municipality quite spread although it is not in a good pattern. However, the change is still in a good direction as city planning
which is a good indication that the city has a consistency in applying their planning and also can be as a sign that once the city
transforming into an autonomous city they can decide their planning of the city and keep maintain in a good direction (Figure
6 and 7).

Figure 6. Banjar Municipality City Planning in 2008.

Source: Banjar Municipality Planning and Development Bureau

Figure 7. Urban Area Change in Banjar Municipality in 2016.

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According to the result of urban area map in the year 2016, the concentric theory of the city is not appeared in Banjar
Municipality. Since the city transforming into a new autonomy city the spread of the city is not changed into a new pattern,
while the result of the population density map has shown that urban area changes also happened in the same location as the
increase of population density, but it did not happen in the highest population district. The result also has shown us although
the urban area changes mostly happened in Banjar and Langensari District there is another finding that when we classified the
population density into a lower level of administrative government in the year of 2016 the highest population density happened
in two urban villages namely Mekarsari Urban Village and Hegarsari Urban Village which is located in Banjar District and
Pataruman District (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Population density map in Banjar Municipality in 2016.

Syaifuddin et al. (2013) in his study discovered there is a positive correlation between the population and land use change
in District Somba Opu, seems it cannot be generalized to a new autonomy city. According to the result of this study, the result
of the map indicated that the significant increase of the land use change is happened in the lower increase of the population
namely Banjar District and Langensari District, while Pataruman District where considered as the higher population increase
the change is not as big as those two districts. Imbalance spread of the living inhabitant highly contributed to the significant
gap between the increase of population and the availability of a new urban resident, and it should become a high concern of
the city planning to avoid the environmental problems in the future. However, regional development and decentralized
institution encourage local public authorities to be more active in developing their environment with local-based wisdom has
the most positive and measurable impact on improving governance in a developing country as we can see in Banjar
Municipality. There are empirical evidences the impact of globalization is the city development has pushed the agricultural
area as what happen to several cities in a developing country, apparently the condition also happened in a new autonomous
city like Banjar Municipality.
The development of a city cannot be avoided will had impact the land use change. However, the local authority policy
has a big concern to the preservation the water resources as they develop a new artificial lake in order to protect the water
supply in the future. This condition is one of the good advantages of the implementation of regional autonomy policy since
the autonomous city can decide their future by local wisdom and local need and no longer depend on the central government
decision. All in all, for an undeveloped city in a developing country who does not have a land use change map, Google Earth
image is one of good solutions to get the changes of the city since it is free and provide a good resolution of view and it is also
reliable to support for city planning and a research, however, it will need more extra effort of the digitization when the area is
large and need to involve the local authority to validate it or field work validation. In response the development, the
autonomous city need to consider preservation of the natural resources and agricultural area during the development of
infrastructure facility or local amenities in the future. However, to get a large understanding the pattern of land use population
density in a new autonomous city any advance and a deep research should be conduct in a different area, furthermore, to
develop a new knowledge in the socio-economic transformation, comprehensive research is highly recommended.

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This work supported by West Java Province Government and Banjar Municipality Government which has provided primary
data and discussion for validation of the map.

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Understanding Information Processing and Consumer Preferences

Towards Eco-Friendly Brands
Olasiuk, H.,1,2,* and Bhardwaj, U.1
Jindal dal Global Business School, O.P. Jindal Global University, Sonipat, 131001, Haryana, NCD of Delhi, India
KROK University, 30-32 Tabirna St, 03113, Kyiv, Ukraine
Abstract—This paper aims to explore the directions of consumer preferences and patterns of information processing in the
course of eco-friendly brands purchase, given age, sex and income level of respondents. The study employs two independent
variables: information processing and consumer preferences to establish the effects on the frequency of eco-friendly brands
purchasing. Consumer preferences estimations were based on psychographic variables such as knowledge, attitude, intention
and influence. Similarly, information processing was assessed by the depth and scope of information needed for decision-
making. The answers collected from 194 respondents were scrutinised in SPSS through factor analysis test and correlation
analysis. Around 55.67% of answers are obtained from employed population followed by 38.14% responses from students.
The research shows controversial results. Namely, a significant amount of people showed concern towards environment,
although, very few could reflect their concern through purchasing eco-friendly brands. Study revealed, that Indian consumers
appreciate eco-brands only if they deliver the same level of satisfaction from consumption in terms of availability and quality.
Though, buyers’ behaviour is unpredictable, there is high degree of certainty that eco-shoppers do not compromise on technical
and logistics parameters. There is also a raising demand for customer-related information about green products usage
Keywords—information processing, eco-friendly brands, consumer preferences, buying behavior


N OWADAYS consumers are getting more aware of environmental issues and are concerned towards them. Such solicitude
for environment and sustainability has led to a rapid increase in eco-friendly brands across various product categories.
Preventing environmental degradation is the aim of many organizations in today’s scenario. Thus, companies are making great
efforts to reduce pressure on Earth ecosystem by using sustainable business practices particularly by focusing on development
of eco-friendly brands also known as green brands.
An eco-friendly brand is defined as “a specific set of brand attributes and benefits related to the reduced environmental
impact of the brand and the respective consumer perception as being environmentally sound” (Hartmann, et al., 2005). Eco-
labels are powerful tools utilized for resource protection (Erwann, 2009). Eco-labels as brand elements convey the information
about consumer’s demands with respect to preservation of environmental protection (Bruce & Laroiya, 2007). They ensure
that concerned measures have been undertaken for certain products to prevent unacceptable consequences on the ecosystem
and the environment (Gouin, et al., 2006). The concept of green products is also associated with sustainable manufacturing
and supply chain management that involves environment-friendly standards, technologies and practices incorporated in the
processes of raw materials procurement, production, storage, packaging, shipping, and distribution (Palevich, 2011).
Eco-friendly brands follow the concept of green marketing as one of their main strategies. Consumers gain knowledge of
green products through green marketing (Peattie & Charter, 2003). Today, green marketing is an essential part of marketing
research to promote eco-friendly behaviour among consumers and organizations. Green marketing is defined as “all activities
designed to generate and facilitate any exchanges intended to satisfy human needs or wants such that the satisfaction of these
needs and wants occurs, with minimum harmful impact on the natural environment” (Polonsky, 2011). Nowadays market share
of eco-labelled products remains quite low, despite great level of efforts made towards making them more effective and
efficient (Rex & Baumann, 2007). Because they target a specific set of consumers, green-product manufacturers face number
of challenges associated with marketing eco-friendly brands. Green marketing focuses on enhancing the quality of human life
and natural environment rather than focusing only on the needs of consumers (Polonsky, 2011).
Buying green products is one element of sustainable behaviour likewise saving power, recycling, reducing water
consumption, using less packaging and bags, buying energy efficient devices. Despite great concerns about environment,
consumer behaviour is misleading in sustainability patterns. Another problem is that consumption of green or eco-friendly
products does not always grant high quality, aesthetics, availability, convenience, high service level. Unfortunately, presently
Indian market lacks awareness and understanding of sustainable consumption. The idea of consuming less rather than
consuming differently prevails among customers irrespectively to income group belongingness (World Business Council for
Sustainable Development, 2008).
This study aims to reveal whether demographic and behavioural factors predetermine consumer preferences toward eco-
friendly products and how information processing affect consumer choice.


A. Information processing towards eco-friendly brands
Information processing it is a multistage process resulting in performing task or decision-making. Information processing
mechanism which fosters customers to take a decision typically include information search, receipt (Bettman & Park, 1980;

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Jacoby, 1977), evaluation and integration (Ryan & Bonfield, 1975; Wilkie & Pessemier, 1973; Wright, 1974). Cognitive
phycology scholars focus on the role of memory and the capacity of human brain for information processing (Bettman, 1979;
Schmidt & Spreng, 1996; Srinivasan, 1990; Sternthal & Craig, 1982). Consumer’s information search depends on the ability
to search (Bettman, 1979; Bettman & Park, 1980; Petty & Cacioppo, 1986). The perceived ability to search is defined as “the
perceived cognitive capacity of searching for and processing information” (Schmidt & Spreng, 1996). The capability to search
includes the cognitive processing ability, knowledge of how to search for an information and where to search for a particular
information (Brucks, 1985; MacInnis, et al., 1991). Cognitive anthropology toward information processing originates from
number of cultural theories explaining human behaviour (Wagner, 2002).
Consumer information processing relies on various factors such as existing knowledge of the product and familiarity with
the product (Raaij, 1977). Generally, it involves the interest of the consumer in making the choice. Personality predictors
describe the way an individual perceives and remembers information. A consumer may asses any financial, social, or personal
risk involved while processing information of any product. Environmental and situational factors like pressure of time, various
distractions and crowding in the store also have an influence on the way a consumer processes information (Wright, 1974).
Consumer information processing is also affected by the structure and format of the product information provided by a
company. According to theories related to information processing, it has been indicated that younger people try searching more
for creative, new and alternate information (Evanschitzky & Wunderlich, 2006; Gilly & Zeithaml, 1985). Whereas, older
people do not try to seek for more information and rely on the existing information because their capacity of information
processing declines with age (Evanschitzky & Wunderlich, 2006; Gilly & Zeithaml, 1985; Ratchford, et al., 2001).
The decision of consumers is influenced by the constituents of the task and how the information is provided. The consumer
accesses the information through advertisements and brochures. It can also be obtained from friends, family and sales people.
Decisions can be classified as stimulus-based, memory-based and mixed decisions (Lynch & Srull, 1982). A stimulus-based
decision is “a decision where all the relevant information is externally available in the form of a summary table or a catalogue”.
“When a decision is made by using only the information available in our memory”, it is called a memory-based decision.
Mixed decisions involve the use of both the external information and the information available in our memory. Mixed decisions
are considered to be most prevalent. Consumers must learn to integrate the information present in the memory and the external
B. Consumer preferences towards eco-friendly brands: rational and emotional approaches
Typically, consumer preference is defined as “how a consumer ranks a collection of goods or services or prefers one
collection over another”. Classical microeconomics states that consumer behaviour is always rational: consumer prefer one
product over another based on the utility derived from the consumption of certain bundles of goods. Consumer operates by the
ideas of opportunity costs, marginalism and utility maximization to rationalize and justify a choice (Salvatore, 2008). Problem
of rational and emotional in decision making process has been well discussed in a book of Nobel Prize winner in economics
Richard Thaller (Thaller & Sunstein, 2009). Unlike logical reasoning in mapping consumer preferences, emotional triggers
like love, pride, envy jointly with desire to follow role models perform a cut-off function to help grade available choices and
mediate consumer decisions. Increasing importance of emotional messages in marketing campaigns that appeal to automatic
decision-making centres (without proper prior reasoning) in human brain have been also well argued in psychology and
behavioural sciences. Based on this discovery marketer for eco-brands popularization need to re-tune marketing
communication with greater focus on emotional component.
Predictors that affect consumer’s purchasing behaviour towards green products have been examined in a recent research
of (Gan, et al., 2008). Their findings revealed that price, quality and brand are the most essential product attributes that the
consumers take into consideration while making purchase decisions for green products. Moreover, buyers expect all products
to be environmentally safe and felt no need of a trade-off for quality or extra prices for the products (D'Souza, et al., 2006).
Green shoppers are influenced by social, cultural, personal and psychological characteristics while purchasing something
with eco-label (Kotler, et al., 2005). Every person has a different personality and this personality influences the buying
behaviour of that individual (Kotler & Armstrong, 2008). Consumers usually buy products that match their personality.
Therefore, it is essential to comprehend the lifestyle patterns of the consumers. Identifying opinion leaders is essential to
encourage brand adoption. Opinions leaders act as influencers and leading adopters (Kotler & Armstrong, 2008). Opinion
leaders are the consumers that drive trends, tend to influence mass opinion and hence, sell a lot of products as a result. They
utilize their wide circle of known people to spread their knowledge about the product. This knowledge might be good or bad
as perceived by him.
The profiles of consumers who want to pay extra for environment friendly products have been identified and analysed in
many papers (Laroche, et al., 2001). Their research also elaborates on marketing strategies developed from a better
understanding of this profile of consumers. One study targeted the population of a North American city for sample procedures
and data collection. Consumers who were willing to pay more for environment friendly products took into consideration the
present ecological situation and the need to act swiftly towards it. They believed that corporations do not act responsibly
towards the environment and they gave a high priority to ecological issues while making purchases.
C. Attitudinal-behavioural triggers of consumer purchase intentions
An intention is defined as “a person’s commitment, plan, or decision to carry out an action or achieve a goal” (Eagly &
Chaiken, 1993). It refers to how hard the consumer is willing to try to make a purchase. Consumer’s desire to safeguard the
environment determines his preference to purchase eco-friendly brands. When a consumer develops a favourable attitude

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towards an object, it is very likely to influence his perception towards that object.
According to early research studies, there is not much of a correlation between various types of pro-environmental
behaviours of an individual (Tracy & Oskamp, 1983-1984). This implicates that people who practice recycling might not
necessarily prefer carpooling. Such type of irregularities occurs due to the focus of researchers on generalized view instead of
focussing on certain behavioural aspects only (Mainieri, et al., 1997). Therefore, to understand specific behaviours, the
attitudes must be directed towards certain issues like purchasing eco-friendly brands (Gadenne, et al., 2011; Wulfa &
Odekerken-Schröder, 2003).
Consumer decision about purchasing eco-brands vary across product categories and services. For instance, intentions to
visit eco-hotels are similar among all age, income and education groups, and predominantly differ by gender and previous
experience (Han, et al., 2011 ). Purchase intention of “green” sportswear buyers are found to be significantly affected by
expectations, perception, subjective norms and attitude toward eco-products (Changhyun, et al., 2017). In case of buying eco-
food family size, number of children, perceived quality of goods, food safety and environmental concerns comprise a set of
precursors affecting consumer choice (Loureiro, et al., 2001). According to their results number of children under 18 bring
eco-sales up, at the same time family size moves it down. Interestingly that eco-friendly food shoppers do not consider eco-
wine as a product worth of distinguishing among conventional wines (Sirieix & Remaud, 2010). An empirical study run by
(Paul & Rana, 2012) revealed that education and location have significant impact on purchase frequency, in the same time age,
gender, income and family size do not. Quite relevant that majority of eco-consumers are motivated by overall benefit derived
from eco-food purchases, anticipating positive health and environmental outcomes. Environmental concerns are predetermined
by eco-attitudes, eco-behaviour, which in turn affect purchase intention (Paul, et al., 2016).
D. Contextual framework
To conclude, studies on information processing and consumer preferences toward eco-friendly brands have developed a
solid corpus of knowledge to explain consumer decision-making process. From a system approach information processing and
consumer preferences fit into decision-making process. Consumer preferences result from outcomes of information processing.
Prior to decision consumers conduct information search. In the course of obtaining more information it automatically processes
by consumer’s cognitive system. Figure 1 is self-explanatory form demonstrates interrelation of information processing,
consumer preferences in decision-making process.

Decision-making process Information processing


Problem Information Information Purchase

Recognition Search Evaluation Decision

Scope of Influence,
Knowledge Intention
information Attitude

Determinants of consumer preferences

Figure 1. Consumer decision-making framework.

E. Research hypotheses
H1: There is no relationship between demographic variables and purchase frequency of eco-friendly brands
H2: Consumer preferences and purchase frequency are interrelated
H3: Information processing affects purchase frequency


To understand the relation of information processing and psychographic variables of consumer preferences towards eco-
friendly brands a questionnaire with 18 statements was developed and circulated (Table 1). The respondents were asked to
submit their replies on these statements on a five-point scale as strongly disagree, disagree, neutral, agree and strongly agree.
We used Likert scaling technique to analyse the responses; scores were allotted: 1 for strongly disagree, 2 for disagree, 3 for
neutral, 4 for agree and 5 for strongly agree.

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I know and understand the extent of harm that human beings cause to the earth.
Climate pattern of the earth has been changing because of the damage caused.
I am concerned about protecting the environment.
We should learn to live in harmony with nature in order to survive.
I would purchase eco-friendly brands only when someone in my family insists on
buying them.
I would purchase eco-friendly brands only when there is no other choice.
INFLUENCE I cannot change my behaviour voluntarily for anything unless there was some
I would continue to buy brands that are convenient to me until they are available in
My individual role as a consumer matters a lot for the community welfare.
I have changed / would change my choice of many brands for ecological reasons.
ATTITUDE When I choose a brand, I will try to consider how my consumption of such brands
will affect the environment and other consumers.
I would prefer eco-friendly brands only if they are beneficial in terms of cost and
quality to my family.
I always prefer an eco-friendly brand over conventional brand given the price is
INTENTION I think that people and environment will benefit from consumption of eco-friendly
While shopping, I always search for an eco-friendly brand in the store.
I acquire a lot of information about an eco-friendly brand before purchasing it.
PROCESSING INFORMATION CONTENT I search for specific information such as brand popularity and reviews for selecting
an eco-friendly brand.
I purchase eco-friendly brands (once a week, month, six months, year, never &

Estimation of environmental knowledge, influence on consumer decision-making, altruistic (positive)/ egoistic (negative)
consumer attitude are borrowed from recent research on eco-friendly brands (Padmavathi, 2015). The intention of consumers
for purchasing eco-friendly brands is adapted according to studies about purchase intention (Lusk, et al., 2007). Information
processing by consumers is measured using two predictors (Capon & Burke, 1980). The last indicator of purchase frequency
of eco-friendly brands contains only one question (Padmavathi, 2015).
The effective sample size consisted of 194 subjects (66 female), 154 subjects are aged between 21-30, with equally
distributed income level across all the range of respondents. 83.51% are single, and 55% are employees (Table 2).
With the intention of exploiting the relationship between frequency of eco-brands purchases, information processing and
consumer preferences, descriptive and inferential statistics is employed. For the purposes of this study we select the audience
of students and working professionals between 18-60 years old. Convenience sampling technique covers 194 respondents. The
SPSS software is used to analyse data. Multiple regression, correlation, descriptive statistics, ANOVA tests are applied to test
research hypotheses. Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy, Bartlett's Test of Sphericity and Cronbach's Alpha
were utilized to test data robustness.

Variable Characteristics Percentage Frequency
Gender Male 65.00% 117
Female 35.00% 63
Age 20 and below 7.22% 13
21-30 80.00% 144
31-40 7.22% 13
41-50 2.78% 5
50 and above 2.78% 5
Occupation Student 38.33% 69
Employee 55.56% 100
Business 4.44% 8
Homemaker 1.67% 3
Marital status Married 14.44% 26
Unmarried 85.56% 154
Income per month/rupees Below 25,000 13.71% 24
25,000-50,000 21.71% 38
50,000-75,000 24.00% 42
75,000-1,00,000 12.57% 22
Above 1,00,000 28.00% 49
Once a week 7.22% 13

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Frequency of eco-product Once a month 40.56% 73

purchasing Once is six months 24.44% 44
Once a year 19.44% 35
Other (please specify) 8.33% 15
Source: authors research


From the sample size of 194 only 181 have completed all questionnaire. Frequency distribution results admit high level
of confidence about ecological situation on the planet and cause humans to be the reason of negative climate changes.
Influential component of consumer behaviour contains high uncertainty and neutrality, which makes predictions ambiguous.
Thought the drivers to buy eco-products are huge, consumers would search for convenience and comfort, acceptable costs and
quality (Table 3).






Q1. I know and understand the extent of harm that human
beings cause to the earth. 1,11% 1,11% 3,33% 49,45% 45,00%
Q2. Climate pattern of the earth has been changing because

of the damage caused. 1,67% 0,56% 2,78% 42,77% 52,22%

Q3. I am concerned about protecting the environment. 1,11% 0,56% 8,33% 47,22% 42,78%
Q4. We should learn to live in harmony with nature in
order to survive. 1,11% 1,11% 1,67% 42,78% 53,33%

Q5. I would purchase eco-friendly brands only when

someone in my family insists on buying them. 10,00% 28,33% 33,90% 18,33% 9,44%

Q6. I would purchase eco-friendly brands only when there

is no other choice. 16,11% 44,45% 24,44% 10,56% 4,44%

Q7. I cannot change my behavior voluntarily for anything


unless there was some compulsion. 14,44% 37,78% 24,44% 19,44% 3,90%

Q8. I would continue to buy brands that are convenient to

me until they are available in the market. 4,44% 12,22% 36,67% 41,11% 5,56%

Q9. My individual role as a consumer matters a lot for the

community welfare. 2,22% 2,78% 17,78% 57,78% 19,44%
Q10. I have changed / would change my choice of many
brands for ecological reasons. 1,11% 3,33% 23,33% 56,11% 16,12%
Q11. When I choose a brand, I will try to consider how my
consumption of such brands will affect the environment

and other consumers. 2,22% 5,56% 23,89% 54,44% 13,89%

Q12. I would prefer eco-friendly brands only if they are

beneficial in terms of cost and quality to my family. 2,22% 12,80% 24,44% 47,22% 13,33%

Q13. I always prefer an eco-friendly brand over

conventional brand given the price is same. 2,22% 4,44% 27,22% 43,90% 22,22%

Q14. I think that people and environment will benefit from

consumption of eco-friendly brands. 2,22% 1,11% 11,67% 58,90% 26,10%

Q15. While shopping, I always search for an eco-friendly

brand in the store. 5,00% 18,89% 40,56% 30,00% 5,55%

Q16. I acquire a lot of information about an eco-friendly



brand before purchasing it. 5,00% 17,22% 34,44% 33,90% 9,44%



Q17. I search for specific information such as brand

popularity and reviews for selecting an eco-friendly brand. 2,78% 13,89% 31,10% 45,56% 6,67%
Source: authors research

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 102 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Data shows that buyers are keen for information search prior purchasing, particularly, more than 52% are curious about
brand popularity and read customers feedbacks. These findings related to Indian customers are in cohesion with global
consumption patterns of eco-products, when number of technical, quality-related, psychological factors retain purchasers from
eco-products (World Business Council for Sustainable Development, 2008).
Study reveals that slightly more than 7% buy eco-labelled goods every week, almost 41% of respondents buy eco-labelled
products every other month, about 25% – once in 6 months, and 27% at least once a year or less. Demographic breakdown is
following: most powerful age segment is 21-30 years population, of a male gender, predominantly unmarried employees with
income level 50-75 thousand or 1 lakh rupees. Generally, holders of these demographic features buy eco-brands once a month
or frequently. This finding describes broadly obtained sample size. However, in our study there was no relationship revealed
between demographic variables and frequency of eco-branded products bought by customers. This outcome fits perfectly with
the results obtained for customer preferences for eco-friendly paper (P. Kishore & Byram, 2013).

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .763

Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 825.549

df 105

Sig. .000

Source: SPSS output

Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin statistic of sampling adequacy is 0.763, which is above the minimum criteria of 0.5. Bartlett's
measure represents significance of selected factors. Thus, sample size is appropriate for factor analysis. Reliability test is based
on Cronbach’s Alpha test (Table 4,5).


Cronbach's Alpha N of Items

.760 18

Source: SPSS output

Since, the Cronbach’s alpha is greater than 0.7, the data used in the study is reliable.


Initial Eigenvalues Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings

Cumulative % of Cumulative % of
Total % of Variance Total Total Cumulative %
% Variance % Variance

1 3.703 24.689 24.689 3.703 24.689 24.689 2.924 19.494 19.494

2 2.459 16.395 41.083 2.459 16.395 41.083 2.567 17.113 36.607

3 1.759 11.729 52.813 1.759 11.729 52.813 2.212 14.747 51.354

4 1.036 6.907 59.719 1.036 6.907 59.719 1.255 8.365 59.719

5 .873 5.820 65.539

6 .812 5.413 70.952

7 .712 4.744 75.695

8 .657 4.380 80.076

9 .567 3.780 83.856

10 .497 3.311 87.167

11 .461 3.072 90.239

12 .452 3.012 93.251

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 103 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

13 .377 2.513 95.764

14 .350 2.332 98.096

15 .286 1.904 100.000

Source: SPSS output

A. Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

By definition of Kaiser’s criterion, retaining factors with eigenvalues more than 1 are used. Totally, four factors explain
about 60% of all variance. Optimized factor structure gives more precise and equal numbers of variance explanation (Table
3 4
Attitude and 2 Knowledge
Influence Occasion
Extent of harm human beings cause to the earth .824
Climate pattern of the earth .771

Concerned about protecting the environment .727

Learn to live in harmony with nature .717 .332

Purchase eco-friendly brands someone insists .814
Purchase eco-friendly brands when no other choice. .770

I cannot change my behaviour voluntarily unless compulsion. .666

Continue to buy brands that are convenient to me .518 .482

Role as a consumer matters for community welfare .622

I have changed my choice for ecological reasons .757

When I choose a brand, how my consumption affects the environment .758

Prefer eco-friendly brands if beneficial in terms of cost and quality .733

Eco-friendly brand is preferred over conventional brand given the price is
.647 .348
People and environment will benefit from eco-friendly brands .668

I always search for an eco-friendly brand in the store .620 .367

Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis.

Rotation Method: Varimax with Kaiser Normalization.a
a. Rotation converged in 6 iterations.
Source: SPSS output

Principal Component Analysis has identified 3 main components with substantial factor loadings that might affect eco-
friendly brands purchases, fourth component does not meet PCA score criteria of more than 0.5.


N Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation Kurtosis

Statistic Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic Statistic Std. Error
Age 194 1 5 2.16 .051 .713 6.881 .347

Gender 194 1 2 1.34 .034 .475 -1.554 .347

Occupation 194 1 5 1.71 .048 .669 3.439 .347

Marital status 194 1 2 1.84 .027 .372 1.325 .347

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 104 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Monthly family income 189 1 5 3.24 .102 1.408 -1.307 .352

Source: SPSS output

Descriptive statistics associated with demographic parameters demonstrates following characteristics: there is a negative
kurtosis in gender and income distribution, monthly income and are represent largest standard deviation (Table 8).

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 14.458 4 3.615 3.266 .013b
Residual 209.155 189 1.107
Total 223.613 193
a. Dependent Variable: I purchase eco-friendly brands:

b. Predictors: (Constant), REGR factor score 4 for analysis 1, REGR factor score 3 for analysis 1, REGR factor score 2 for analysis 1, REGR factor
score 1 for analysis 1
Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 2.758 .076 36.513 .000
REGR factor score 1 for analysis 1 -.114 .076 -.106 -1.501 .135
REGR factor score 2 for analysis 1 .225 .076 .209 2.967 .003
REGR factor score 3 for analysis 1 .084 .076 .078 1.110 .268
REGR factor score 4 for analysis 1 -.067 .076 -.062 -.880 .380
a. Dependent Variable: I purchase eco-friendly brands:
Source: SPSS output

In order to test the hypotheses that the consumer preferences defined by knowledge, influence, attitude and intention had
effect on the level of eco-purchases one-way ANOVA test was conducted (Table 9). Between-group ANOVA test yielded
statistically significant results, thus, null hypotheses of no difference between data was rejected.
Regression analysis does not represent relationship between consumer preferences, information processing and frequency
of purchasing eco-friendly brands. The detailed factor significance for consumer-related components are following: 1) attitude
and intention – 0.135; 2) environmental knowledge – 0.003; 3) influence – 0.268, 4) occasion – 0.380. Thus, frequency of eco-
brands purchases is not affected by influences from family or market conditions, such as availability and accessibility of
products, given freedom of choice is ensured. Not even attitudes and intention matter for eco-purchases. Eco-sales in selected
regions of India are driven by environmental concerns and awareness on environmental issues society faces.

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression .161 1 .161 .139 .710b
Residual 223.452 192 1.164
Total 223.613 193
a. Dependent Variable: I purchase eco-friendly brands:
b. Predictors: (Constant), REGR factor score 1 for analysis 1
Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients
Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.
1 (Constant) 2.758 .077 35.605 .000
REGR factor score 1 for analysis 1 -.029 .078 -.027 -.372 .710
a. Dependent Variable: I purchase eco-friendly brands:
Source: SPSS output

One-way ANOVA states the absence of statistically significant difference between group means. (Table 10). The
significance for information processing is 0.710, which is greater than 0.05. So, we cannot reject the null hypothesis and there
is no relation between information processing and purchase frequency of eco-friendly brands.

Consumers make decisions based on preferences that reflect bundle of objective (age, gender, income level) and
subjective (problem awareness and intention, purchase influence and personal attitudes, degree of information search)

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decision-making factors. Understanding of factors help marketers better communicate with target audience, excel in
uncovering both socio-demographic and behavioural patterns. Our analysis did not find relationship between demographic
variables and buying frequency. Modelling of consumer preferences did not prove substantial significance of influential
component on quantity of eco-products consumers buy. Research failed to establish inductive impact of family members, other
external compulsive determinants like availability of alternative products along with better product quality and convenience
on eco-purchases frequency.
In contrast to the opinion that raising awareness about impact of eco-friendly brands on environmental preservation does
not stimulate eco-shopping, our research stipulates the opposite. The environmental awareness and eco-shopping frequency
are positively correlated, particularly environmentally concerned consumers and those who learn to live in harmony with nature
appeared to do eco-purchases more often. Consequently, instruments of consumer attraction and retention vary depending on
purchaser’s knowledge about environmental situation and lifestyle they follow.
Thus, green marketing in situation when greater part of consumers persist is state of eco-indifference or ignorance,
targeting needs to be divided toward shoppers who are environmentally concerned to stimulate repeated purchases and those,
who are unaware to attract attention.
For existing customers, eco-oriented firms are recommended to work on product competitiveness, improve consumer
characteristics, develop distribution channels, provide more information about values that eco-products deliver, create
distinction in packaging to ease product search on store shelves or online to pursue more loyalty and consumer recognition.
Companies need to adopt different marketing approach toward audience who remains ignorant about prevention of
environmental degradation through eco-consumption. This type of customers feels lack of knowledge, thus the best way to
build awareness is to communicate on general environmental issues, support social initiatives and develop strong eco-oriented
industry community aiming to popularise “green” concepts.
At any stage of eco-consumer journey marketers need to convey messages appealing to emotional and rational reasoning
of buyers, provide clear and unbiased information on product features, invest in eco-labelling and eco-lifestyle promotion.
Both marketers and policymakers should take active steps in shaping positive attitude toward eco-products and subtly nudge
consumers to switch toward more environmentally-friendly behaviour.
Limitations of this research might be overcome if broader dataset is collected from other regions of India or developing
economies to establish consumption patterns. As addition to this study it would be interesting to find out ratio of emotional
and rational reasoning in decision-making of eco-shoppers and reveal transformational journey of customers from regular to
eco-friendly consumers.

The authors express sincere gratitude to Dr. Satyam, Senior Research Associate in O. P. Jindal Global University for the
expertise of questionnaire and technical support of a research project.

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Gas exchange parameters for ornamental species of the genus Peperomia

Ruitz et Pav., grown in a vertical garden under different nutrient
Shahanova, M.B.,* Anev, S., and Tzvetkova, N.P.
University of Forestry, 10 Kliment Ohridsky Blvd., Sofia 1797, Bulgaria; *
Abstract—Determination of some indicators of gas exchange is important for establishing the rate of growth of plants and
allows to be assessed their adaptive ability in conditions of soilless growing in vertical gardens. An occurrence of different
degree and type of epiphytism in representatives of genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav., which are characterized by slower and
particular metabolism, have directed the attention to the members of the genus. For them, as leaf-decorative plants, first of all,
vegetative growth is valuable. For this reason, it is essential to maintain intensive photosynthesis throughout the growing
period. The effect of feeding of young plants of three species of genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav., grown in interior vertical
gardens, was studied. For the experiment were used fertilizers of different types and concentration. Two types of fertilizer in
two concentrations were used as well as a sample without feeding. The gas exchange was also studied in the substrate-grown
plants. The experiment results will indicate a suitable choice of fertilizer types and concentration to feed plants grown in a
vertical garden.
Keywords—vertical garden, soilless growing, gas exchange, genus Peperomia


T HE construction of interior vertical gardens is mainly related to the use of epiphytic and semi-epiphytic tropical species.
The reasons are based primarily in the vertical positioning of the greened planters, the specific substance that replaces the
substrate and the way the roots are attached to it. The methods of plant nutrition and maintenance of the system also determine
the use of epiphytes.
The vegetative growth of leaf-ornamental species (as used in the present work) is valuable. The physiological state of the
plants, providing rapid growth, is essential for the vertical garden as in this type of composition the plants are observed frontally
and the density of the vegetation volume determines its quality. Therefore, it is important to maintain the intensive
photosynthesis throughout the growing period. Di Benedetto pointed that the market value of the tropical leaf-ornamental
plants depends on the growing rate, connected with the indices of their photosynthesis [1]. The latter are also relevant when
assessing the ornamental effect of indoor plant composition. Models for optimization of greenhouse microclimatic conditions
and transition to technological solutions have been developed for some species, aimed at increasing the productivity of flower
production in greenhouses on the basis of physiological studies on their photosynthesis [2].
The examined members of the genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav. are leaf-ornamental interior plants: Peperomia glabella
(Sw.) A. Dietr., Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr. and Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey. Their main habitats
are damp shady places in forests, river banks and rocks. Most often they exhibit obligatory and facultative type of epiphytism
as they grow on tree branches or half-rotted leaves. They are rarely an atmospheric type of epiphytes. As life forms they are
grass perennial small plants, rarely semi-shrubs. The species grow throughout the year, without a clearly pronounced period
of dormancy, and in secondary communities they are manifested as pioneer species [3]. The anatomical structure of leaves and
physiological analyses demonstrate the C3, C4 and CAM types of photosynthesis and transitions between them [3] [4]. The
members of the genus Peperomia exhibit strong drought resistance which can be explained by the movement (redistribution)
of water between leaves, as well as by the presence of CAM. The dependence of crystal formation and intensity of light, as
well as some ecophysiological reactions to drought in P. magnoliaefolia have been studied [5] [6]. The connection between
the type of photosynthesis and lamina thickness in the genus Peperomia Ruitz et Pav. (CAM and C3) has been determined [7].
A proportional dependence between the thickness of the spongy mesophyll and the intensity of photosynthesis, as well as the
water distribution in tissues as a reaction to drought, have also been determined. The studies concern Peperomia obtusifolia
(L.) A. Dietr. (of С3 type) and Peperomia macrostachya (Vahl) A. Dietr. (CAM type), and regarding Peperomia obtusifolia a
transition from C3 to CAM has been observed under dry conditions. According to Ting most species of the genus Peperomia
Ruitz et Pav. are epiphytes with poorly developed roots and the turgor is maintained by the rainfall. In case of water stress
(drought) they close their stomata during the day and unlock CAM [8]. It has also been determined that the water storage
specialization occurs during the latter stages of leaf development and therefore it is present in mature laminae at the base of
the shoots, while in the top young leaves it is about five times lower. The aquiferous parenchyma tissue decreases in mature
leaves and increases in young leaves in case of water deficiency [9].

The aim of the present study is to determine the dependence between the physiological processes (photosynthesis,
transpiration) in young plants of the species Peperomia glabella (Sw.) A. Dietr., Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr. and
Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey. and the different types and concentrations of products used for plant nutrition in the
conditions of a vertical garden.

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 108 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.


The studies were performed on 250 young plants (aged 6 months) of the species Peperomia glabella (Sw.) A. Dietr.,
Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr., Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey., obtained from rooting cuttings on
geotextile (Fibrotex Protex 300 (EsHa) in the conditions of a vertical garden. The plants were leaf nourished once every 7
days with “Lactofol” and “Laksifert” suspension fertilizers in concentrations of 1% and 0,5%. Control without fertilization
was as also set. The results were compared with the parameters of mature plants grown more than 1 year in substrate as potted
plants without external source of nutrition (Table 1). The variants were, as follows:
The content of macro and microelements in both fertilizing products is described in Table 2.
The suspension fertilizers of the “Lactofol” group are biotechnological products. The microelements in them are linked
in lactic acid (lactate) complexes. The “Laksifert” fertilizers are liquid-gel foliar fertilizers, characterised by the optimal ratio
of macroelements, high microelement content and included rapid absorption components /citric acid and vitamin B1/. The
microelements in the “Laksifert” fertilizers are in the form of citrates. Due to the presence of citric acid as a metabolic step in
the Krebs Cycle, the citrate form of microelements is considered to be more readily absorbable.
Three randomly chosen plants within each experimental variant were used for the gas-exchange measurements. Net
photosynthetic rate (An) and transpiration rate (Е) were measured by the Portable photosynthesis system – Li-6400 (Li-Cor
Inc., Lincoln, NE, USA), equipped with an artificially LED-illuminated chamber. During the measurements, the base
environmental conditions were controlled at optimal levels (flow rate = 400 µmol; air temperature = 25 °C; relative air humidity
= 45% and saturated light intensity = 1000 µE) for maximizing gas-exchange. The measurements were taken on one mature
and fully expanded leaf from every three plants per treatment. One Way ANOVA test following by the All pairwise multiple
comparison procedures (Tukey test) were used for tests of significant differences between the means of each experimental
variant. All statistical calculations were performed with specially created visual basic user-defined functions in MS Excel
(Microsoft Corp., Redmond, WA).


On Figure 2 it can be seen that the rate of photosynthesis (An) in Peperomia glabella (Sw.) A. Dietr. varies strongly
as the lowest values (2.43 ± 0.22) are determined in the vertical garden plants, fertilized with Laksifert 0,5%, and the highest
values - 9.93 ±1.07 are obtained from the young plants, nourished with Lactofol 1%. All other fertilizing variants have values,
significantly lower that the control and initial plants and confidently differ from each other.

№ Species Lactofol Laksifert Control* Initial plants **
(concentr.)* (concentr.)*

1 Peperomia glabella (Sw.) A. Dietr 0,5% 0,5 % 0% 0%

1,0% 1,0 %
2 Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr. 0,5% 0,5 % 0% 0%
1,0% 1,0 %
3 Peperomia urocarpa 0,5% 0,5 % 0% 0%
Fisch. &. C. A. Mey. 1,0% 1,0 %
* Plants in vertical gardens
** Plants grown in substrate

Product Macroelements weight % Microelements weight % or presence (x)
N P K B Cu Fe Mn Mo Zn
( P2O5) ( K2O)
A 4 5 5 – х х х х х
B 6 4 4 0,3 х – х х х
A – Suspension Fertilizer Laksifert
B – Suspension Fertilizer Lactofol

ISBN 978-83-952699-0-5 109 ©2018 PCS PUBLISHING, CO.

Figure 1. P. glabella in vertical garden.

An, µmol CO2 m -2 s-1

10 f
8 e

6 b
4 a c

Laxifert, Laxifert, Lactofol Lactofol Control Origin
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants

Figure 2. P. glabella – rate of photosynthesis (An).

The highest values regarding the transpiration rate (E) are determined for the variants of fertilizing young plants in
vertical gardens with Lactofol 1%. There is no statistically significant difference between this variant and the control where
the highest values of this parameter are obtained - 1.813±0.097. The lowest transpiration intensity is reported for Laksifert
0,5%. (Figure 3)

E, mmol H2O m -2 s-1

d d

1.5 e

1 c

Laxifert, Laxifert, Lactofol Lactofol Control Origin
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants

Figure 3. P. glabella – transpiration rate (E).

The (An) in Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr. varies greatly (Figure 5) and in some variants, there is a threefold
difference: 4.83 ± 0.60 in Lactofol 1% (where unlike Peperomia glabella, the values are the lowest) to the highest value for
the same type of fertilizer but at the lower concentration (0,5%) - 12.7 ±3.77. Only the Lactofol 0,5% variant differs statistically
from the control. There are no statistically significant differences between the control and the initial plant, as well as between
the two concentrations of Laksifert (Figure 5). In general, in this species, the rate of photosynthesis is higher which can be
explained by the greater thickness of the lamina and the thickness of the spongy mesophyll [7]. Most likely the reduced stomatal
conductivity, aimed at saving water (important for the CAM plants), leads to the variation of these indices.

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Figure 4. P. magnoliaefolia in vertical garden.

An, µmol CO2 m -2 s-1

10 d
8 a a
6 c

Laxifert, Laxifert, Lactofol Lactofol Control Origin
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants

Figure 5. P. magnoliaefolia – rate of photosynthesis (An).

Regarding the (E) of this species, the control has the highest value of 1.97±1.81 and differs statistically from the variants
with fertilized plants and initial plants (Figure 6). The lowest values are determined for both concentrations of Lactofol and
Laksifert 1% without statistically proven differences. There are no such differences also between Laksifert 1% and the initial
plants. The non-fertilized plants may possibly experience a shortage of mineral substances and this leads to intensive water
exchange in order to supply the necessary minerals. The plants in all examined fertilization variants are more fully stocked
with mineral salts and save water more efficiently.
E, mmol H2O m -2 s-1


b b
0.5 a a a

Laxifert, Laxifert, Lactofol Lactofol Control Origin
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants

Figure 6. P. magnoliaefolia – transpiration rate (E).

The variation ranges of the (An) in Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey is from 5.75 ± 0.14 (in Laksifert 0,5%) to
8.15±0.57 and is the smallest from all three studied species. The highest values are determined for the control but they do not
confidently differ from the Lactofol variants (0,5% and 1%). (Figure 8)

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Figure 7. P. urocarpa in vertical garden.

An, µmol CO2 m -2 s-1

10 c c
b bc b
8 a
Laxifert, Laxifert, Lactofol Lactofol Control Origin
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants

Figure 8. P. urocarpa – rate of photosynthesis (An).

Comparable values of the E are also reported at the low concentrations of both fertilizers (Laksifert and Lactofol - 0,5%).
These are the highest values which confidently differ from the others. The values obtained at the high concentrations (Laksifert
and Lactofol – 1%) and the control are equal, and the lowest indices are also reported for the mature (initial) plants. Apparently,
there is no need to increase the intensity of water exchange of the non-fertilized plants, which leads to similar levels of gas
exchange (photosynthesis and transpiration). (Figure 9)

E, mmol H2O m -2 s-1


1 a
b b b
0.5 c

Laxifert, Laxifert, Lactofol Lactofol Control Origin
0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% plants

Figure 9. P. urocarpa – transpiration rate (E).

According to Zotz phosphorus (P) is the limiting factor for the epiphytic habitat (rather than the nitrogen (N), so the plants
are adapted to nutrition poor in phosphorus [10]. On the other hand, the qualitative phosphorus nutrition of plants in vertical
gardens is of great importance due to the following two reasons – it increases the cold resistance of the plants (at low

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temperature and permanent humidity) as well as the resistance to pests and diseases. The highest results for the physiological
indices under comfort conditions are determined when fertilizing with Lactofol (at 1% concentration) which contains a higher
amount of phosphorus (P) than the other studied product.

Significant differences between the plants of the species Peperomia Ruitz et Pav. are determined regarding the intensity
of photosynthesis. These are species with a certain degree of succulence and presence of CAM. Perhaps the differences in the
current water content of tissues contribute to the great differences between the values of this parameter. The highest value of
photosynthesis intensity (12.7 μmol(СО2).m-².s-ˡ) is determined in Peperomia magnoliaefolia (Jacg.) Dietr which is related to
the mesophyll thickness in leaf lamina. In most species, the highest values of this parameter are determined for Lactofol 1%.
In all species the obtained values of transpiration intensity of the control are higher than the variants with fertilization or
the second largest (Peperomia urocarpa Fisch. &. C. A. Mey). The probable cause is the lack of new growth and formation of
new leaves in the control, and the measurements are made in mature leaves with a stable photosynthetic apparatus. Statistically
proven difference between the different species is determined regarding the transpiration. This difference disappears in the
various nutrition variants and no difference is determined in the case of Laksifert 1%. The high levels of daytime transpiration
in plants with CAM metabolism are probably a sign of mineral deficiency. The CAM plants normally close the stomata during
the day but in case of mineral shortage they can compromise with water saving (especially when it is not a limiting factor, as
in the case of the vertical garden) and open the stomata during daytime. This accounts for the parallel occurrence of C4 and
No definitive conclusion about the effectiveness of nutrition in the different studied variants can be drawn from the
obtained results. With regards to the low values of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), due to the greenhouse shading,
it can be concluded that the variation range of the parameter intensity of photosynthesis is within the limits for shade-tolerant
grass plants, especially when taking into consideration that the measurements were made on young leafs with still unstable
photosynthetic apparatus.
No significant impact on the gas exchange indices are determined for the studied concentrations of nutrition fertilizers
which indicates that these norms provide sufficient physiological comfort for the CAM plants in order to adequately save water
and keep the stomata closure during the daytime.

[1] Di Benedetto A., J. Molinari, C. Boschi, D. Benedicto, M. Cerrotta, G. Cerrotta, 2006. Estimating Crop Productivity for Five Ornamental Foliage
Plants. International Journal of Agricultural Research, 1: 522-533.
[2] Kim H.S., J.H. Lieth. A Coupled Model of Photosynthesis, Stomatal Conductance and Transpiration for a Rose Leaf (Rosa hybrida L.) Ann Bot
(2003) 91 (7): 771-781.
[3] Luttge U. 1989. Vascular plants as epiphytes. Evolution and ecophysiology. Ecological Studies 76, Springer Verlag: 167-197 (270 p.)
[4] Herrera A., M. D. Fernández, Taisma M. A. 2000. Effects of Drought on CAM and Water Relations in Plants of Peperomia carnevalii. Annals of
Botany 86 (3): 511-517.
[5] Kuo-Huang L.L., Ku M.S.B., Franceschi V.R. 2007. Correlations between calcium oxalate crystals and photosynthetic activities in palisade cells of
shade-adapted Peperomia glabella. Botanical studies 48 (2): 155-164.
[6] Schmidt, J. Kaiser W.M. 1987. Response of the succulent leaves of Peperomia-magnoliaefolia to dehydration - water relations and solute movement
in chlorenchyma and hydrenchyma plant physiology 83(1): 190-194.
[7] Fondom N.Y, Castro-Nava S., Huerta A.J. 2009 Seasonal variation in photosynthesis and carbon balance under natural conditions in two Peperomia
species that differ with respect to leaf anatomy. The Journal of the Torrey Botanical Society, Volume: 136, Issue: 1, Publisher: Torrey Botanical
Society, Pages: 57-69
[8] Ting IP, Bates L, Sternberg LO, Deniro MJ.,1985, Physiological and isotopic aspects of photosynthesis in Peperomia,
[9] Gay A., R. Moore, 1993, Development of Chlorenchyma and Window Tissues in Leaves of Peperomia columella, Annals of Botany, Volume 71,
Issue 2, Pages 141–146
[10] Zotz G. 2004. The resorption of phosphorous is greater than that of nitrogen in senescing leaves of vascular epiphytes from lowland Panama. Journal
of tropical ecology 20: 693-696.

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Urban Sustainability Indices to Green Infrastructure

Pérez- Pérez, M.
Technological University Indoamerica, Bolívar 20-35, Ambato, Ecuador;
Abstract—The current Latin American city seeks order, recovering its identity and life in community through activities in its
urban green public spaces. The intention of the administrative management on the recovery of these spaces coexists with the
neglect of the urban quality that they have, leading to the abandonment of the mimes. Purpose that defines the principles of
green infrastructure in the Latin American city. The case study is Ambato, sustainable intermediate city, according to the IDB
in its update of the CIS program of 2017; it is also a resilient city that is changing its urban profile, because of its social habit.
The proposal is the product of the research project "Sustainable criteria of urban-architectural intervention of public spaces,
according to their urban climate, level of appropriation and social habitat, between the avenues Guaytambos, National Unity,
Del Rey, Quiz-Quiz and Manuela Saenz, of Ambato". Applies a qualitative and quantitative methodology, based on
quantitative indicators, analyzes the current state of urban green public spaces, and works as a meeting point between citizens,
the level of ownership or absence they present. The levels of appropriation and absence that public spaces present, serve the
three-dimensional model of sustainable development, contemplates the three basic dimensions. The social sphere acquires
relevance due to the role of the user in the appropriation of public space; economic, environmental and cultural; define best
practices to increase their level of ownership. The results allow us to understand the abandonment process, identify the
predominant needs of users of public spaces and promote the appropriation through criteria of architectural and urban design
of urban green public spaces in the Andean city of Ecuador, the green infrastructure of the cities Latin American.
Keywords—public space, urban infrastructure, urban sustainability


T HE definition of the current city is in constant evolution in the socioeconomic, political and environmental aspects, being
necessary to re-think this current city with the attribute of sustainable. When this city is confronted, as an urban sprawl
that includes architecture and services, the challenge of sustainability issues involves generation, demand and consumption of
general uses, energy, industry, mobility and transport. The current city, as a limited and stable site, loses importance in the
face of the urban way of life, which organizes and orders space without distinction, with relationships that transcend the
physical space of the city (López-Marcos, 2015). Hence, architecture, of the current sustainable city, goes beyond buildings.
It transcends the walls of dwellings and interior uses. Facing an obstacle every day. Obstacle greater than this internal
functioning, until reaching the incursion in the mitigation of climate change. It is carried out by the intrinsic activities of the
construction sector and of that accelerated urbanization (Bazant, 2010), claiming initiatives involved in viable urban solutions,
integral in the architecture and in the services that support its use and enjoyment. In this area, the public space is responsible
for the organization, function and what the city, is as an urban site. It leads to the humanization of public space with
infrastructures allowing social integration (Cuervo Calle & Herrán Cuartas, 2013). This public space is fundamental to
complement the habitability, begun intra walls, in which the complementary activities of the other spaces, transforming the
public space as a physical, functional and sociocultural extension of what happens inside a private space (Torres-Pérez, et al.,
2016). The traditional infrastructures, known as gray infrastructures (Table 1) important for human health and well-being.

Infrastructure Types
Transport Roads, bridges, road signs, cars, etc.
Communications Telephones, data, television, radio, internet.
Drinking water Wells, reservoirs, water pipes, etc.
Energy generation Dams, hydroelectric plants, transmission lines, transformers, etc.
Source: Austin, 2017

The use of architecture and urban planning as an instrument of urban development, of the configuration of the current
city, generates physical, functional and behavioral changes, where the result of the interaction of levels of space and time is
sustainable. Within the framework of a social sustainability, which seeks to integrate the social condition with the elements of
environmental sustainability, coming to understand the public space, as a "laboratory of sustainability" (Holguín Ávila &
Campos Medina, 2017). Being an example in achievements of the connections between the social inequalities of the city, as
an instrument to eliminate violence in the cities. One sample is Medellin, Colombia, the metamorphosis of the image that it
had in 1992, being one of the most dangerous cities in the world, in 2015 it is a Latin American city as a great laboratory of
architectural and urban interventions, product of those interventions between 2003 and 2007. With an urban development,
which is the search for specific solutions to social problems, which uses strategies as instruments of social integration.
Cities can enhance their sustainability or resilience through spatial land-use planning. Broadly spatial planning is
approaches used largely by the public sector to influence the future distribution of activities in space and takes an ecosystem
approach (Meerow & Newell, 2017), where provides a suite of ecosystem services for the benefit of humans and the natural
environment (Wilson & Piper, 2010) The expansion urban of green infrastructure has emerged as a popular strategy to this

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ecosystem-based approach to land-use planning (Lennon & Scott, 2014). When Norman Foster says that "Infrastructure is the
urban glue that unites buildings", it is promoting that buildings include the exterior, infrastructure and public spaces, constant
action of the inclusive city, which leaves aside marginalization. Which favors the integration of an infrastructure and
approaches an integral planning, product of the multidisciplinarity (Henao Villa, et al., 2017) of the design, where the
disciplines used in the design of the city are not only of and for the architecture, discarding the position of the building as a
single element, solve urban problems as a whole.
In this area, the definition of the public, from the privatization of the city, is transformed from that public space and its
importance forces to distinguish the property regime from its spatial and use condition, differentiating the public space from
the space of public property as part of the city. These differentiated expressions about the ownership of public space influence
the distinction between the relationship between public space and public property (Silva, 2011). Similarly, it is a reality that
social groups do not appreciate the value of natural capital; hence, the inclusion of green infrastructures in cities has had a
positive consequence in increasing the overall value of these. Attribution achieved by relating to green infrastructures as a way
to mitigate the ecological footprint of cities, in addition to reducing heat island effects and CO² emissions.
The management and urban planning of green areas and parks has been developed as a fundamental part of urban
development strategies (Flores-Xolocotzi, 2012). In Europe and the USA, the design of green areas is an integral part of urban
development and planning plans. Cities such as Madrid, Barcelona, Paris, London, New York, so diverse evidence that there
is no single process for the planning of green infrastructure, but a series of strategies according to the characteristics and social
needs of each city. Strategies that integrate sustainable actions, which calls for the use of social, environmental, economic and
cultural indicators. Retaking the typology of criteria (García & Guerrero, 2006) to identify sustainability indicators for urban
parks: ten indicators in six categories or criteria.
The policies and practices developed by designers and urban planners in which anthropocentric and ecocentric values are
included within a green infrastructure system as well (Austin, 2017), include habitat, recreation, green spaces and urban
The European Commission (European Commission, 2014) defines green infrastructure as a strategically planned network
of high quality natural and semi-natural areas with other environmental elements, designed and managed to provide a wide
range of ecosystem services and protect the biodiversity of both settlements rural as urban. It aims to improve the quality of
nature to facilitate multiple and valuable ecosystem goods and services, such as clean water or air. In addition, they can
incorporate both rural and urban, terrestrial or aquatic areas could be part parks, forest areas, rivers, wetlands, green roofs
(Naumann, et al., 2011). Unlike the gray infrastructure, they fulfill varied functions, they are multifunctional, and they are
integrated in the territory and have low energy and maintenance needs. Environmental, social and economic characteristics.
On a technical and economic viability basis green infrastructures to provide solutions to various problems and offer a range of
maximum benefits. The tradition of gray infrastructures due to the inertia in their construction may hinder the implementation
of green infrastructures, for this research, can be necessary and effective approaches.
The theoretical approaches that have influenced during the last decade for the definition of the concept of green
infrastructures, as it understood today, are diverse. Among them landscape ecology, landscape planning, or polarized landscape
theory. The ecology of the landscape, even though it is a discipline with many decades of history, is from the seventies and
eighties when it are deepened in the integration of classical ecology with the theories related to the dynamics of spots and
mosaics, with the theory of disturbances and with the biogeography of islands. From that moment, the ecology of the landscape
takes a course with interest in the structure and dynamics of landscape mosaics and their influence on ecological processes,
incorporating geographic information systems and techniques, computer modeling and spatial analysis (Magdaleno, 2017).
With a development of theories related to the ecological networks and with the structural and functional ecological connectivity
of the territory (Table 2).

Gray infrastructures Green infrastructures Integrated systems
Cost +++ ++ ++
Rigidity +++ + ++
Functionality + +++ ++
Integration + ++ +++
Local /regional impact +++ + ++
Energy need +++ + ++
Tendency to deterioration and obsolete +++ + ++
Adaptation to territorial scales + +++ ++
Source: Magdeleno, 2017

The green infrastructures are studies as an innovative subject, where their research is a response to the need to support
the benefits integrated in green infrastructures in the environmental, social and economic scale and on the optimal procedures
to incorporate multidisciplinary aspects in the quantification and assessment. Green infrastructure is the “infrastructure of
green spaces, water and built systems, e.g. forests, wetlands, parks, green roofs and walls that together can contribute to
ecosystem resilience and human benefits through ecosystem services” (Derkaen L., et al., 2017). It is increasingly recognized
that careful design and implementation of green infrastructure can contribute to climate adaptation (Matthews, et al., 2015).

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The concept of green infrastructure has become central in policy documents and as a multifunctional general planning
tool. However, any kind of green infrastructure will not deliver all ecosystems services in any place, not without land use
conflicts, investments and long term operating costs. This calls for a green infrastructure concept linked to actors and mediating
values, with the spatial definitions of infrastructure “green-grey” and “public-private” crucial in green infrastructure location,
design, construction and management (Lindholm, 2017). Moreover, the association with sciences and technologies that have
contributed to its implementation, such as biology, ecology, urban planning (Magdaleno, 2017).
According to the conceptual and methodological foundations for the implementation (Magdaleno, 2017), and considering
some critical aspects that are currently being discussed in the study area, it is possible to propose some initiatives for the
development of green infrastructures, which could be benefit for users.


The territory of Ecuador through it mountain systems, with three natural regions, costa, sierra and east. At different
altitudes, the coast arrives at the level of the sea, the saw with the highest level the Chimborazo to 6.267 msnm and the East
located in the Amazon region that goes from the 3.353 m to the 300-150 msnm (IGM, 2013). Ambato, 155.80 km., of Quito,
the Ecuador capital, has an area of 1016,454 km2, which equals 29.94% of the province of Tungurahua (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Location of Ambato, case study.

Located in the region sierra at 2.575,00 meters above sea level, is part of the climate Equatorial mesothermal dry (Pourrut,
1983). Between latitude 1° 14’ 32.11’’, longitude 78° 37' 45.23’’. The temperature fluctuates from 13.3 to 14.7 °C variation
given by the irregularity of the terrain, reaching the extremes of 7 to 24°C, relative humidity between 70-80%. According to
the records of the past 10 years, next above, measurements of Tº and RH have been kept without relevant variations. It is
traversed by the Ambato River, which has a length of 26.6 km. The annual water deficit in the area amounts to approximately
1913.35 mm. Its geography is differentiated by the Western mountains, more than half of the surface, dividing it into two
almost equal parts and a high plains area constituted by the Andean alley. Its orography is rugged with a series of hills, hills,
streams and ravines, which considerably limit the existence of broad valleys.

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Figure 2. Study area, area of 343.4 hectares.

Is defined an area of study that includes the current downtown and its immediate urban expansion, with an area of 343.4
hectares (Figure 2), in which the green public spaces are 26.5 hectares (Table 3), representing 0.78% of the surface to such a

Public Spaces Area (m2)
Dos Culturas 4604,098
Los Sauces 5765,92
Luis A. Martínez 213317,2
Los Quindes 3737,43
La Vicentina 6052,5
La Madre 4419,93
Juan Benigno Vela 3978,45
Juan Montalvo 4593,04
Cevallos 4119,19
Doce de Noviembre 7119,32
Plaza Sucre 2618,07
Neptali Sancho 9078,15
Total area 269403,298

The cities of Latin America present examples of the transformation of public space, closely linked to their historical changes
and modes of production. Where the public space serves to meet the needs of meeting and the development of daily activities,
with the category and signs of social space. In the same way, the real estate boom of these cities, with their housing complexes
and spontaneous shopping areas, changes the sense of social space of the public space, propitiating that the essence of public
space is threatened.

In order that public spaces are sustainable, where the balance of the environment, the culture and the economy of the user,
is not only a common goal if it is present in coordination with the comfort of the user. It is intended that each space built in
the public space has a second nature, and be an integral part of the surrounding built environment. Where the initiatives to
incorporate green infrastructures center in the benefit of the community, from which it looks for to settle the social and
territorial inequalities.
As a factor to promote a change in the urban habitat, with an energy reduction reactivating public spaces with the

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perspective of physical, biological, economic, social, cultural, environmental, political and administrative components, with
priority perspectives in the local culture. And under the premise of creating a green infrastructure, focused on interventions of
public spaces, responds to three key elements -climate change, energy efficiency and quality of life- to achieve the reduction
of environmental costs and the admissible limits of the economy.
From the beginning of the 21st century, dollarization represented the gradual change of economic policy in Ecuador,
which is evident from the urban centers which have been conurbated by increasing their urban areas, overcoming the widening
of the peri-urban, endangering the identity of the intermediate city. In this sense, the idea that the green infrastructure as a
theme of design with the environment and based on good living is enhanced. Being that the green infrastructures originated by
the remodeling of public spaces improve the vitality indexes, the identity of its users and the urban connectivity. In this sense,
indicators are defined to identify relevant urban public spaces to intervene to generate green infrastructures, as an ordered set
of variables whose objective is to provide a totalizing vision with respect to the predominant interests related to the urban
reality in question (Rueda, 2013). Criteria based on the four axes of sustainability, economy, society, environment and culture.
The studies carried out, up to now, it are defined by the sustainability variables; the existing infrastructures in relation to
the public spaces represent a favorable data for the case study as shown below (Table 4).

Indices Montalvo Cevallos Luis A. Martinez La Madre 12 de noviembre

Bolívar Av. Fermín Cevallos ,

Sucre Joaquín Lalama, Av. 12 de noviembre,
Location Av. Rodrigo Pachano. Pizarro y Orellana.
Montalvo Luis A Martínez y Mera y Martínez
Castillo Sucre
Bolívar School, Ernesto Alban Theater
Ex Municipality of
Emperor Hotel, Eucalyptus trees, Homes of 2 and 3 Homes of 3 to 5 levels
Environment Pichincha Bank, local flowers, fruit levels. and commercial
Provincial Council
Providencia School, trees, etc. Neighborhood buildings.
The Library of Ambato
Mary Carmen Hotel. commerce.
The Portal house.
Central Park.
Commemorative of an
Influence in the The bridge, the Meeting point for
Central Park. illustrious person of Pizarro Street
urban sprawl ecological path. nearby cities.
the city, political
San Antonio area
Downtown and the Downtown and Rodrigo Pachano 12th of de November
Route of influence connected with health
cathedral. Cevallos Avenue. Avenue. Avenue.
20 seats Childish games
34 seats
4 water source Exercise machines 20 Seats
4 bus stops
8 Lanterns Relaxation place 7 inside 15 seats
Urban equipment Letters de la Word:
6 Trash Suspension bridge 13 in the 1 water source
Monument Trash neighborhood areas.
Public toilets Public toilets
Irrigation with water
Water from the Ambato Reuse water from the
Watering twice a week. Watering once a week. Watering the plants.
management River for crops and source.
The trash cans fill up In the waste
Fines for throwing Cleaning every The trashcans that are
Waste fast and the management, the
garbage and has afternoon and trash not used, garbage
management maintenance staff municipal cleaning
cleaning staff. cans. disposed of in sewers.
cleans them. staff cleans.
Security is by the
Insecurity and
municipal police, at Insecurity motivated Meeting point on the
Risk management Evacuation route. between weeks is
night it closes from 8 by street vendors. sports field.
pm to 7 am.
The Cevallos avenue Internal pedestrian and Surrounding
Bolívar street accesses Through the streets
Communication with more affluence in vehicular routes are communication with
it accessed by the north Benalcazar, Pizarro,
channels the city and Sucre highly used. information on the
of the city. Orellana.
street. care of green areas.
Wide paths to walk Places for users to
with tranquility. circulate without Mobilization walking Large with large
Mobility No parking. Cars can not park difficulty both or driving in the park sidewalks and wide
because there is a lot walking and in their that has wide streets. access roads.
of traffic. car.
Valued by the Benches for the rest of Camineries, energy Remodeled several
Remodeled in 1950
Urban space scale Ambateña citizenship people while waiting light plant and times due to
and 2010.
and place of rest. for the bus. lookout. vandalism.
Relaxation and
Relaxation and fun are
socialization are the Monument that
Typology of the characteristic of the Patriotic and civic
Very visited. attractions, decorated represents the family
urban image. nature that surrounds symbol of Ambato.
with flowers and as a unit.

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Illuminated with
Although it is
Monumental artificial Artificial lighting Electric power plant automated sensors for
Energy efficiency. illuminated, it is
lighting. from 6 pm to 6 am. without operation. on and off, from 6 pm
unsafe for night use.
to 6 am.
Secure by the four
accesses, there are walls Inclusive access for Barrier of weeds Clinics, local,
Universal Accesses, without
and doors. No stairs, so people with plants and trees free commercial and few
accessibility. ramps.
disabled people can disabilities. access. homes in the area.

Commercial buildings 30 dwellings that use

Number of Public and private 9 abandoned houses 10 homes with
and a public public space on
housing benefited buildings around. around. commercial premises.
institution. weekends

Before it was square

Origin and Built in the year of August 10. Black Bridge or Built in 1820 as a
Built in 1938
evolution 1980. In the 40s, it is Jaramillo Bridge. meeting point.
Profitable with
Relationship with Profitable and safe for
offices, commercial Recreation and sports Without commercial
the current real people's rest. Historical monuments.
premises and two activities. premises.
estate activity.
Source: Pérez-Pérez, 2016


The green public urban spaces of Ambato are far from having the value of the playground as a place full of potential for
social integration not only of children, but also for the adults who care for them. Their level of appropriation is different, to
the space where users relate to the city and the rest of society, staying in spaces of relationships with very close peers. The 56
% of the total generation of energy in South America corresponds to hydroelectric power plants, 2% to nuclear power plants
and the rest to conventional thermal and geothermal generation. The main source of renewable electric power generation in all
regions of South America is hydroelectric power. Almost 90% of power generation comes from this type of power plant (De
Venanzi, 2014). The percentage of electricity generated from alternative energies area: 4.5% wind, solar and geothermal, 6%
In these public spaces, the disposition and materiality of the elements condition the consistency and quality of the air.
Defining the transformation of the city of Ambato. In an equation that joins structure and spatial materiality, which allows to
identify a map of spatial densities (Pérez-Herreras, 2012).
The green infrastructure has become a tool for resilient cities in order to contribute to the conservation of biodiversity and
benefit the populations. The design, implementation and profitability of green infrastructure projects. The results of this
research, given the nature and relevance of the topic, will contribute to the political strategy on green infrastructure. The Green
Infrastructure Spatial Planning model, a multi-criteria approach that integrates six benefits: 1)storm water management;
2)social vulnerability; 3)green space; 4)air quality; 5)urban heat island amelioration; and 6)landscape connectivity (Meerow
& Newell, 2017), where the nature increasingly fragmented by urban settlements, the political strategies on green infrastructure
aim to reduce this problem and reconnect fragmented natural areas, maintain healthy ecosystems and restore damaged habitats
(Magdaleno, 2017), as well as provide solutions to adaptation to climate change.
The green infrastructure policy encourages the planning of natural areas to provide biodiversity conservation and
ecosystem services for human well-being. Little is known about the preferences of residents, and how they relate to green
infrastructure. The objective of this study is to identify and locate this type of relationship, when green infrastructure.
This project aims to develop a strategy for improving the green infrastructure in terms of its design, for example, nature
restoration, alluvial floodplain management, sustainable urban drainage systems or cooling systems with green spaces,
improving retention and purification of natural water through reforestation, wetland restoration or soil management.
For which 300 residents interviewed, first to identify the importance for their personal well-being that they offer in the
conurbated zones of the public spaces in the case of study. Secondly, to define the inclusion of green infrastructure in the
planning, we have identified and located the infrastructures. The majority of respondents associated their well-being with the
security. The proportion of each type on average 3.5%.
Management strategies needed for green infrastructures: maintenance, their structure and function of natural ecosystems;
and the diversification of the current inclusive management approach (Table 5).The integration of urban green infrastructure
and it is value for climate adaptation, are solutions to strengthen local adaptation and increase his resilience through planning
to adaptation at the impact of climate change.

The management and planning of urban green areas gradually incorporated an ecological vision, which has led, in recent
years, to a three-dimensional perspective of sustainable development that requires an integral consideration of social, economic
and environmental aspects.

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Objective Action
Promote the improvement of sanitation infrastructures and purification of nuclei not included in the A. Water purification in the Ambato river.
Territorial arrangement planning.

Promote the development of plans and programs for the restoration of transitional waters and coastal B. Riverside corridors in the river.
areas, contributing to a balance and maintaining spaces of special interest for conservation.

Promote the adoption of urban and peri-urban design techniques that mitigate the degradation of the C. Renaturing of the urban drainage network
Ambato River and that provide a wide range of functions and environmental services. through bioengineering techniques.

Ecology and economics provide indicators of ecological footprint, green surface, biodiversity, carbon capture, oxygen
supply, etc. Indicators of importance to assess the environmental importance of urban green areas; they are even the sustenance
of one of the indicators of quality of life most used in urban planning: the 9 m2 recommended by OMS. Considering a classic
economic vision of sustainability, environmental economics provides economic values of environmental services of green
areas without a market price; values that are useful in the benefits-costs for decision-making in the use of land in urban areas.
From a social perspective, sustainability includes citizen participation, gender equity and social inclusion, hence the utility of
knowing citizens' perception of urban green areas.
From the integral approach of sustainable development, citizen participation and social inclusion, from the social
dimension, are fundamental to achieve governance processes aimed at covering the recreational social demand in the current
The analysis and discussion of green management and planning processes, considering sustainable development,
establishes that Latin American local governments.
The systematization of the data has allowed obtaining a vision, of the key performance, of the gray infrastructures in the
sustainable function of the urban green public spaces of Ambato, closing a partial cycle of the investigation that looks like
final objective the definition of urban criteria architectural for sustainable public spaces.

This article is the product of research "Sustainable criteria of architectonic spaces public intervention project, according to its
urban climate, level of appropriation and Social Habitat, between the avenues Guaytambos, Unidad Nacional, Del Rey, Quiz
- Quiz y Manuela Saenz, of Ambato" (UTI-CITEHS-PI-03 Territory Livability and Sustainability Research Center). Special
thanks to Carlos Campo Verde, which has made the delimitation of the site map.

Austin, G., 2017. Infraestructura Verde para la Planeación del Paisaje, Interacción humana y sistemas naturales.. México: Trillas.
Bazant, J., 2010. Expansión urbana incontrolada y paradigmas de la planeación urbana. Espacio Abierto Cuaderno Venezolano de Sociología, 19(3), pp.
Cuervo Calle, J. J. & Herrán Cuartas, C., 2013. La Casa en el Parque. Cuadernos de Vivienda y Urbanismo, 6(12), pp. 228-247.
De Venanzi, A., 2014. Gasto Público social y las inversiones en infraestructura para el desarrollo (2000-2010). Revista Venezolana de Análisis de
Coyuntura, XX(1), pp. 71-94.
Derkaen L., M., Teeffelen, A. J. A. v. & Verburg, P. H., 2017. Green infrastructure for urban climate adaptation: How do residents’ views on climate
impacts and green infrastructure shape adaptation preferences?. Landscape and Urban Planning, Issue 157, pp. 106-130.
European Commission, 2014. EU policy document on Nature Water Retention Measures.. Bruselas, Comision Europea.: By the Drafting team of the WFD
CIS working Group Programme of Measures (WG PoM).
Flores-Xolocotzi, R., 2012. Incorporando desarrollo sustentable y gobernanza a la gestión y planificación de áreas verdes urbanas.. Frontera Norte, 24(48),
pp. 165 - 190.
García, S. & Guerrero, M., 2006. Indicadores ambientales en la gestión de espacios verdes. El parque Cerro La Movediza. Tandil, Argentina. Revosta de
Geografía Norte Grande, 1(35), pp. 45 - 57.
Henao Villa, C. F. y otros, 2017. Multidisciplinariedad, interdisciplinariedad y transdisciplinariedad en la formación para la investigación en ingeniería.
Revista Lasallista de Investigación, 14(1), pp. 179-197.
Holguín Ávila, R. & Campos Medina, L., 2017. Afectos, representaciones y prácticas en la construcción de la sustentabilidad de un parque urbano..
Contexto, XI (15).
IGM, I. G. M., 2013. Contexto históricos y políticos generales: atlas de la República del Ecuador.. s.l.:Instituto Geográfico Militar..
Lennon, M. & Scott, M., 2014. Delivering ecosystems services via spatial planning: reviewing the possibilities and implications of a green infrastructure
approach. Town Planning Review, 85(5), pp. 563-587.
Lindholm, G., 2017. The Implementation of Green Infrastructure: Relating a General Concept to Context and Site. Sustainability, 9(4).
López-Marcos, M., 2015. Anti-Ciudad como infraestructura. El sistema lineal continuo de Oskar Hansen. Proyecto Progreso Arquitectura, VI(13), pp. 44-

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Magdaleno, F., 2017. De la infraestructura gris a la verde.. En: Libro blanco de la economía del agua. s.l.:McGraw-Hill, pp. 181 - 196.
Matthews, T., Lo, A. Y. & Byrne, J. A., 2015. Reconceptualizing green infrastructure for climate change adaptation: Barriers to adoption and drivers for
uptake by spatial planners. Landscape and Urban Planning, Volumen 138, pp. 155-163.
Meerow, S. & Newell, J. P., 2017. Spatial planning for multifunctional green infrastructure: Growing resilience in Detroit.. Landscape and Urban Planning,
Volumen 159, pp. 62-75.
Naumann, S. y otros, 2011. Design, implementation and cost elements of Green Infrastructure projects. Final report to the European Commission, DG
Environment, Contract no. 070307/2010/577182/ETU/F.1,, s.l.: Ecologic institute and GHK Consulting..
Pérez-Herreras, J., 2012. Nuevas Especies de Espacios. ARQ (Santiago), Issue 82, pp. 30-37.
Pérez-Pérez, M., 2016. Indicadores para la definición de centros urbanos con espacios públicos sostenibles.. En: ECOINVOLÚCRATE en Arquitectura
Sostenible., pp. 144-159.
Pourrut, P., 1983. Los climas del Ecuador: fundamentos explicativos.. s.l.:CEDING.
Rueda, S., 2013. Modelo e indicadores para ciudades más sostenibles.. Fundación Fórum ambiental y Departamento de Medio Ambiente. ed. Barcelona,
España: Generalita de Catalunya.
Silva, C., 2011. Espacio Público informal apreciaciones sobre la infraestructura y los espacios de uso colectivo en el campamento de Pudeto Bajo de Ancud.
Arquitectura del Sur, Issue 39, pp. 72-85.
Torres-Pérez, M. E., Arana-López, G. & Fernández Martínez, Y., 2016. La calle y la vivienda: relaciones de espacio. pp. 31-53.
Wilson, E. & Piper, J., 2010. Spatial planning and climate change. s.l.:Routledge.

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Construction of ‘living’ snow fences along highways in Bulgaria

Lazarov, M., and Shahanov, V.
University of Forestry, 10 Kliment Ohridsky Blvd., Sofia 1797, Bulgaria; (M.L.); (V.S.)
Abstract—The advantages of ‘living’ snow fences over the other snow drift constructions are well known. In order to function properly
these barriers should be planned and designed correctly. The current study concerns the construction of living snow fences in Bulgaria. To
achieve this purpose methodology for constructing snow barriers made of plants are explored. Common mistakes and factors concerning
their building are described as well. The experience in Bulgaria related to wind and snow protection is studied. Based on the study, solution
for ‘living’ snow fence along the Trakia Highway is proposed for an area where snowfall causes the biggest problems nationwide.
Keywords—snow protection, ‘living’ fences, transport infrastructure


P LANNING and designing ‘living’ snow fences (LSF) along highways on the territory of Bulgaria is the goal of the current
study. Developing a proposal for snow protection barriers at a specific location would help to a better understanding of the
essence of such landscape plans and acquiring knowledge in the field of landscape planning. For this purpose the experience
in building LSF is studied, the conditions in the developed territory are analyzed, and specific design solutions are made.


Snow drifting control along roads started during the first half of XX century [1]. Anti-drifting measures are the following:
ditches construction; structural snow fences; and LSFs [2]. When conditions are appropriate, LSF could be applied. ‘Living’
fences are built of plants – trees, shrubs, native plants and agricultural crops. Plantings are used as a windbreak designed to
keep blowing and drifting snow off roadways and to improve the transportation efficiency and safety [3]. LSFs have various
benefits – social, economic, environmental and aesthetic. Appling LSF improves driver visibility and road surface conditions.
It has the potential to lower costs of road maintenance as well as accidents attributed to blowing and drifting snow [3]. The
environmental issues are additional habitat for wildlife, carbon emission reduction during road maintenance, a source of
renewable energy if living fences are planted and managed as biomass for energy [3]. After the mid of XX century the snow
fences are explored in another way – as means of increasing water yield from windswept areas [1].
The snow fences work as they reduce the wind speed. This allows the snow particles to fall on the ground. Because the
speed decreases on both sides of the barrier snow accumulation will appear on either side as well. However most of the snow
drifts occur on the downwind side of the porous snow fence [4]. The author claims that preferred fence permeability is 40-50
Common mistakes in LSF construction are improper design and placement [4]. The author stresses that fence design
should comply with the amount of snow it need to hold and that fence placement closer to the road could make bigger snow
drifts over the road. Deeper drifts on the road happened when fence is placed close to the embankment shoulder as well.
This problem is observed in a completed project for one of the most problematic sections of Trakia Highway [5]. As can
be seen from the picture, the planting of vegetation is quite close to the road and it is on the embankment shoulder, Figure 1.

Figure 1. Living snow fence construction, 2017, Trakia Highway. Source: Ministry of Regional Development and Public Works

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The improper location of the plant barrier and the construction of the road section in an excavation, in addition, led in the
beginning of 2018 again to snowdrifts blocking the highway traffic for days. Although it was an experimentally constructed
barrier, not taking into account site conditions and requirements for barrier placement, the spent money is not justifiable.

For the amount of snow estimate a method described by Tabler in his Snow Fence Guide [4] is used. The calculation is
based on two parameters – “the distance (fetch) within which the wind can pick up snow and deposit it on the road, and the
amount of relocated precipitation”. The distance is no more than 6 km and is measured to the next obstacle (deep gullies,
stream channels, trees, ice pressure ridges, and open water) in the upwind direction. The amount of relocated precipitation (in
tones/m) is 70 % of the 10 % annual snowfall. For instance, when the fetch is 6 km and the annual snowfall is 1000 mm, the
amount of relocated precipitation will be 1000 x 10 % x 70 % = 70 mm. According to Figure 2, the estimated snow transport
is approximately 110 tones/m.

Figure 2. Snow transport estimate [4].

The next step is to estimate the fence height. It depends on the amount of snow volume witch need to be stored. For
example, a 3 m tall fence is needed in order to store 110 tones/m of snow, Figure 3.

Figure 3. Fence height estimate [4].

On the third step the orientation, length and distance of the fence to the road should be defined. The fence orientation
need to be perpendicular to the prevailing wind as could departures up to 20 degrees [4]. The fence length should exceed the

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problematic place and this additional length could be estimated in two ways. It should be equal to 20 times the fence height
[4] or equal to the downwind end of the protected area [6]. The minimal distance from the road is 30 [6] to 35 [4] times the
fence height. When the fence is made of trees Tabler suggests that the setback distance could be reduced to 15 times the height
of the plants in their maturity. Otherwise, if fence is made of fast-growing shrubs having mature height of 1,8-2,4 m the
distance should remain 30-35 times the plants height, i.e. 60-70 m.
At last the fence inner structure should be designed. As mentioned above the barrier has to be 40-50 % permeable. This
could be achieved by a few rows of trees or shrubs. When plantings have bigger width, e.g. 60 m, they act as solid barrier [6].
In this case Tabler points out that more snow deposit will accrue on the upwind side and the amount of snow drift on the
downwind side will be restricted to 5 times the barrier height.

The described methodology is applied for the experimental section on Trakia Highway with a length of 300 m. Snowfall,
wind direction and speed data, available at [7] for the nearest town Karnobat, are used in order to determine the correct
parameters of the designed LSF. During winter the general wind direction is the northern. The strongest average wind – at 14,5
km/h, is on February. The average snowfall for the same month rarely exceeds 250 mm. For the current location the fetch is
more than 6 km, the relief is relatively flat, and the road section is oriented east-west.
Taking into account all the data the proposed LSF should has the following characteristics:
• snow transport – 250 x 10 % x70 % =17,5 tones/m;
• fence height – 1,5-2 m;
• setback – about 60 m;
• orientation – parallel to the road, from the north;
• length – 300 m plus 30-40 m on each side or total length of 360-380 m.

The proposed LSF responds to the specific climatic conditions - the amount of snowfall, the direction and speed of the
prevailing winds during the winter season. The proposal is also in line with the basic rules for placement, orientation and
density of snow-protecting barriers. Clarifying previous experience on the one hand and taking account of environmental
factors and design requirements on the other give reason to be assumed that if such LSFs are constructed, they will contribute
to the sustainability of the landscape, increasing the ecological and economic benefits, as well as improving the safety of
highway travelers.

[1] R. Tabler, D. Veal, “Effect of Snow Fence Height on Wind Speed”, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 1971, 16:4, p. 49-56.
[2] Anti-drifting measures [Online], Available:
[3] G. Wyatt, D. Zamora, D. Smith, S. Schroder, D. Paudel, J. Knight, D. Kilberg, D. Current, D. Gullickson, S. Taff, “Economic and Environmental
Costs and Benefits of Living Snow Fences: Safety, Mobility, and Transportation Authority Benefits, Farmer Costs, and Carbon Impacts”, Research
Project Final Report, 2012, University of Minnesota Extension.
[4] R. Tabler, Snow Fence Guide, 1991.
[5] 700 cypresses will keep from snowy drifts “Trakia” Highway between Burgas and Karnobat, (2017, November 04), [Online], Available:
[6] R. Tabler, Controlling Blowing and Drifting Snow with Snow Fences and Road Design, Final Report for TRS, 2003.
[7] Average weather in Karnobat Bulgaria, [Online], Available:

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Green infrastructure potential evaluation using UAS and optical imagery

Perc, M.N.
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Transportation Engineering and Architecture, University of Maribor, Slovenia;
Abstract—As climate changes are an undouble fact and we are faced with too much water and at the same time with water
scarcity as result of pronounced changes at the seasonal level (decrease of precipitation in the summer and increase in winter)
which are especially alarming. Urban green areas and green infrastructure are becoming of greater importance. We are using
UAS and RGB imagery to detect urban green areas. We calculate and compare different RGB based indices for that purpose.
Keywords—urban green areas, green infrastructure, remote sensing, GLI, photogrammetry, UAS, UAV


T HE predicted changes in climate extremes, among others, point to substantial warming in temperature extremes by the
end of the 21st century and to the likelihood that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall
from heavy falls is increasing (Field et al., 2012). The simulations of climate scenarios for Slovenia until the end of the 21st
century show a significant increase in the average annual temperature for the whole country in all seasons and the
intensification of precipitation changes, with pronounced changes at the seasonal level (decrease of precipitation in the summer
and increase in winter) (Bertalanič et al., 2017). The challenges associated with extreme climate events are numerous and
complex, for instance, ageing urban infrastructure commonly unprepared for extreme storm events. The green urban
infrastructure based on the existing green areas is one of the answers to those challenges.


A. Area of interest
Our area of interest is southwestern part of Maribor, called Radvanje which lies under the Pohorje hills ski slopes and it
is a place of growing urbanization as prestige location in town (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Area of interest (Radvanje, Maribor, Slovenia), GIS + our UAS orthophoto.

B. Existing stormwater management

The urban area of Radvanje is covered by existing mixed system drainage network which is designed in the past for much
smaller population and less paved areas. In case more and more frequent extreme weather events, stormwater partially floods
area. There is also a tiny river reach in the middle of the area which is highly and inappropriate regulated and used to reduce

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runoff flow volume in the drainage system, but its capacity is limited and causes some additional flooding downstream.


A. Why UAS
Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) or drones are optimal sources of spatial data especially in the case of semi size project
like ours. They are filling the gap between satellite and aerial data on one side and common terrestrial geodetic survey data on
the other side. Even prosumer drones are giving us excellent results under some restrictions (Ground Control Points (GPC),
permissions, weather conditions ...) in a short time and they are affordable.
B. Green area detection using UAS visible imagery
By surveying the site using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to capture simple photographs by preplanned and
autonomous flight and processing visible spectrum orthophotos we can obtain some vegetation indices (VARI, TGA, Green
Leaf Index, etc.) for visual (RGB) data. When we combine color bands from red-green-blue RGB photos, we can get some
graphical indicators to separate green areas (woods, meadows, gardens) from the built environment (buildings, roads, pavement
C. Results of UAS survey of the location
Using a drone, we captured 446 aerial photos in a mere 25 minutes, and incorporated base imagery from four perimeter
ground- control points (GCP). In that time, we detailed the surveyed area of 43 ha from the height of 90m with the estimated
accuracy of 2.7 cm per pixel. First, we calculated the Green Leaf Index (GLI) (Figure 2) which is an algorithm developed
around wheat that can distinguish living plants from soil and non-living matter in the field.

GLI = (2 x G - R - B) / (2 x G+R+B)

where: G – green, R – red, B – blue

It leans heavily on the green color to calculate the index.

Figure 2. Map of Green Leaf Index of zone 1 and 2.

Therefore, with some more image manipulation and segmentation, it can work well as an urban green indicator (Figure 3 and
Figure 4).

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Figure 3. Green areas (green).

Figure 4. Pavement areas (black).

We used UAS to collect data about the area of the interest in a short time. Based on those data we have detected green
and pavement areas as a base for the future planning of the green infrastructure
In future, we will study the impacts of distributed retention and infiltration measures on urban runoff (Jones and Somper,
2014). These measures, i.e. Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SUDS), will reduce the quantity of water that would
otherwise overflow from combined sewer system (CSS) into the recipient and in this way contribute to their quality and prevent
flooding at all (Radinja et al., 2017).
This approach saves us significant time and money and can enhance decision making, and accelerated stakeholder buy-
in for explanations and solutions (Colomina and Molina, 2014).

Bertalanič, Dolinar, Ključevšek, Medved, Vertačnik, Vlahović, 2017. Ocena podnebnih sprememb v Sloveniji do konca 21. stoletja Povzetek temperaturnih
in padavinskih povprečij, ARSO MOP.
Colomina, I., Molina, P., 2014. Unmanned aerial systems for photogrammetry and remote sensing: A review. ISPRS J. Photogramm. Remote Sens.
Field, C.B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M.D., Mach, K.J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S.K., Tignor, M., Midgley, P.M.,
2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of
the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPPC 2012.
Jones, S., Somper, C., 2014. The role of green infrastructure in climate change adaptation in London. Geogr. J. 180, 191–196.
Lee, J.G., Nietch, C.T., Panguluri, S., 2018. Drainage area characterization for evaluating green infrastructure using the Storm Water Management Model.
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 22, 2615–2635.
Radinja, M., Banovec, P., Matas, J.C., Atanasova, N., 2017. Modelling and Evaluating Impacts of Distributed Retention and Infiltration Measures on Urban
Runoff. Acta hydrotechnica 30, 51–64.

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Securitizing Northern Africa – Europe’s Vision of a new Empire?

Cserkits, M.
Department of Social and Cultural Anthropology, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria;
Abstract—In our paper, we will reflect upon the ongoing European Union security issues dealing with missions all over the
world. As a matter of fact, Africa has been carved out as the main effort of military campaigns conducted by the European
Union and its armed forces. The European Union Military Staff is currently working on its flagship project “military
mobility” (Mogherini 2017, in EEAS 2018) with its aim to transport troop across Europe and beyond – without mentioning a
specific area of operations. We will show how the discourse about security and stability has transformed in the shed light of
the so-called “refugee-crisis” and the implementations on military level (like the ongoing mission in the Mediterranean Sea
“SOPHIA”) in order to re-militarize and re-colonialize northern Africa. For this purpose, Securitization theory will be the
solid basis on which we examine the most present documents of the Military staff and the resolutions that had followed,
always with the main effort on northern Africa. As next step, we present the outcomes on a practical level (the deployment
of troops) and the short- as well as long-term effects that these military campaigns had on the area of northern Africa. By this
we present the exingentness of the situation and the effects on the real world.
Keywords—EU, security theory, northern Africa, military


O UR paper will present current events that happened in the European Union (EU) without much public notice, but are never
the less from utmost importance when dealing with policies, governance and international relations. Shedding light from
the so-called migration crisis of 2015, all media attention was directed towards the Near and Middle East, we will argue that
this was just a short term development. Instead, the primary main effort of most European countries is directed towards
Northern Africa. As a short example, we will present the development of the last two years in Austria; a country known for
being in no military alliance – even if it takes part in NATO PfP – Operations (Partnership for Peace) and, beginning with
Autumn 2018, holds the position of the Force Commander of the European Union Military Training Mission in Mali (EUTM
MALI). The referenced source is the European Working council and its decision to change the mission (EUWC 2018) – a
document not open to public, similar to most documents the European Union is releasing regarding its ventures in Africa.
We will also have a closer look on the greater picture, by dealing with the main documents of the European Union Military
planning staff and its effects on long term decision making regarding operations in countries outwards of Europe. For having
a strong methodological framework, we will rely on Securitization Theory (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998) and its effects on
the object that is securitized.


Security threats can be of military, political, economic, societal and environmental nature and the object of the threat does
not necessarily have to be a state (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). A threat can also be located in more than one these
spheres (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). There are three forms by which a state can deal with a public issue. The first form
would be if the state does not treat the issue at all, nor lead a discourse about it, it is therefore nonpoliticized (Buzan/Waever/De
Wilde 1998:21). An issue that is part of public policy, the state does choose to deal with and political decisions are taken in
regard of the issue is a politicized issue (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21) This means the issue is understood to be of concern
for the society and should therefore be governed. Finally, a securitized issue is one that seems to be of such high relevance to
the state due to a general threat, that emergency measures have to be taken by the state (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21)
Such measures can exceed general norms, as the threat legitimizes “actions outside the normal bounds of political procedure”.
(Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21) The process of securitization means the process of identifying an issue as a threat
(Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Such identification of a security threat can then lead to the abolishment of repression of
laws and rules that are otherwise considered as normal and therefore grated (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). This process
of identifying a threat, arguing its priority and, as a result, breaking standards is considered as securitization (Buzan/Waever/De
Wilde 1998:21).
In a democratic state, it is vital to identify something as a threat to legitimize the use of secret services, which exclude the
public from their decisions and information; even though they are agencies of a democratic state (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde
1998:21). Securitization is reached through actors who securitize (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Such actors are usually
political and securitize in a rhetorical manner (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). However, the securitization by a political
actor or elite is not enough to identify something as a threat, the target audience - in case of the state as the actor, the citizens
of the state, have to accept the presentation of an issue as threat (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). The securitzer constructs
a threat, which the public has to accept in order for it to become reality (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Generally, three
types of actors can be identified in this process. First of all, there is the referent object, which is the object of the threat and is
understood as protectable (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). A state, a government, a territory and/or society could be the
referent object (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Secondly the “securitizing actors” declare the referent object as neither
threatened themselves, nor constitute a threat nor identify the threat (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). The securitizing
actors can be political leaders, advocacy groups, bureaucracies, governments and lobbying groups (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde

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1998:21). A security threat does not have to be actual or real to become real, it is often not possible nor it is important to
determine whether a threat is real (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). The different actors in the process of securitization, the
securitzer and the audience, face each other in an asymmetric way (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21). Nevertheless, the
audience has to accept the speech-act of the securitzer. It cannot be guaranteed, that the securitizing act is successful, just
because the securitzer holds more power (Buzan/Waever/De Wilde 1998:21).
The Securitization Theory combines Constructivism and Speech Act Theory with Realism and other schools of thought,
it is clearly based on them and the language plays a key role (Weaver 1995:204). The Copenhagen School defined security
threats as socially created (Weaver 1995:204). Speech acts clearly play a key role, they don´t simply describe an existing
security situation, but bring it into being as a security situation by successfully representing it as such (Williams 2003:513).
For this securitizing move to lead to a successful securitization of an issue, it has to be accepted by the target audience and
only if the audience accepts the presentation of an issue as a threat that has to be dealt with by applying special measures thus
adopting the view of the securitzer then we can speak about a successful securitization. As Williams (2003:513-514) mentioned
securitization theory did manage to combine the traditional and widening streams of security studies. It allows an expansion
and a limitation of the security agenda at the same time. On the one hand, any issue can potentially be securitized via speech
acts and is not limited to the military dimension. A securitization can thus be seen as a more extreme version of politicization
(Buzan 1998:24). Consequently, the Copenhagen School introduced the concept of desecuritization, suggesting that issues that
have once been declared an existential threat in the process of securitization can equally be removed from the emergency back
to the regular political agenda, Given the interconnectedness of securitizations and security sectors, one means of determining
whether a specific securitization ranked high within its respective sector is to examine the implications its desecuritization has
on other sectors (Weaver 1995: 46ss.; Buzan 1998, 25ss.). Weaver defined three possibilities for a successful desecuritization.
The first one is not to talk about an issue in terms of security and is thus strictly speaking, rather avoiding a securitization a
securitization before it takes place. The second option which Weaver mentions is not to respond in a way that would generate
security dilemmas after an issue has been securitized. The third and last possibility is moving an issue back to the political
sphere. For both the second and the third strategy desecuritization may however be problematic because securitizations can be
self-reinforcing. Waever thus admits that the only really good option is to prevent securitizations in the first place (Weaver
1995: 48-49).


A. How it all began
The legal framework for the EU-Africa relations started at 15th December 2000 with the Cotonou Agreement, where the
word “military” can only be found twice in the more than 300-page long contract, and security only 14 times (see eur-lex
2018). The primary concern in this Charta was addressed in terms of combating specific problems, especially child soldiers,
landmines, and “as well as for suitable action to set responsible limits to military expenditure” (eur-lex 2018: Article 11)
regarding Africa. Europe, as main initiator of the summit, is not mentioned to take part in any expenditure, but we have to
keep in mind that the treaty was signed in 2000, when almost all European countries saw no current threat in the near future
and therefore cut the budget for defense. Just one year later, in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, their actions proved wrong.
In 2007, the lessons learned of the uprising of irregular forces all around the world was taken into account when the EU
released its Joint-Africa-EU-Strategy (JAES), where the first main objective was peace and security which was also articulated
as clear strategic priority (JAES 2007: Chapter IV). A new fragrance in this time was the addition of a clear determination
(articulated by the EU) and a common concern: “However, there is today a clear determination by both Africa and the EU to
bring this partnership to a new and strategic level, not only to foster peace and security in both continents, but also to address
issues of common concern in the global arena.” (JAES 2007: Chapter IV, 2 a.14) Suddenly, peace and security was in the
spotlight of every interest relating the EU’s Africa policy, but if we take a closer look to this blunt sentence, we can see the
spirit that is subliminal immanent in it: Common concerns from Europe in Africa. In former times, this would be called colonial
policy. It is here where main gaps inside the EU’s common Secure and Defense Policy first appeared, as the friction among
the proclaimed wishes and the real efforts arouse between several EU members. Shadare (2016) puts it to a clear statement,
when comparing different Nations in their respective Africa policy. There are those who still believe in the European Identity
and those who “…look after their individual national interests and exemplify power in military terms; the fundamental aim of
their foreign policies approaches is to preserve their sovereignty” (Shadare 2016: 27).
Just a glance before the Arab Spring in 2011 started, the EU released a revised version of the Cotonou agreement in 2010
which was about 50 pages long, (following a small amendment in 2005), where “military” is mentioned only one times, but
security 20 times (EC 2010). If we keep in mind the length of the two different papers, we can see a huge shift towards security
concerns from the European side. Very interesting is the revised Article 11 (dealing with Conflict management), where in
point 2 the parties agree: “The interdependence between security and development shall inform the activities in the field of
peace building, conflict prevention and resolution which shall combine short and long-term approaches, which encompass and
go beyond crisis management.” (EC 2010: Article 11; markings by the author). We can see here first the long-term approach
that opened the door for further actions (as we will see soon) and second, the option for the EU to go beyond crisis management,
e.g. to intervene with other measures. In a parallel step, as first reaction to the events following the Arab spring, the EU revised
its Neighborhood policy (ENP) in 2011, where on the 43 long pages the word “security” comes 36 times into your field of
view (ENP 2011). It was this paper that lay base to the upcoming military training missions, as within its main objectives the

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EU clearly articulates the “deep democracy” approach (ENP 2011:4). By “deep democracy”, several core elements of a
democratic system are talked about, e.g. free and fair elections, rule of law but also the control over armed forces and the
police. The stringent shift towards security-based approaches can be found in the ENP, as just in the next paragraph following
the “deep democracy”-approach the intensification of security cooperation comes next. The following quote gives the reader
an impression of the whole section: “Business as usual is no longer an option if we want to make our neighborhood a safer
place and protect our interests” (ENP 2011:6).
B. The shift
As business as usual was no longer acceptable, the EU started several military missions in Africa, beginning with Somalia
in 2010 (under the resolution 2010/96/GASP). “In particular, the objective of the EU military mission shall be to contribute to
a comprehensive and sustainable perspective for the development of the Somali security sector by strengthening the Somali
security forces through the provision of specific military training […] including appropriate modular and specialized training
for officers and non-commissioned officers.” (EC 2010a: Article 1) Three years later, in the turmoil of the Tuareg uprising and
the proclamation of the Asawad-State in northern Mali, the European Union Training Mission in Mali (EUTM MALI) was
implemented in 2013, with very similar goals. Behind the obvious training of security forces and the attempt to stabilize the
unruly region, the EU held its 4th Africa Summit in April 2014, where a roadmap for the next three years (2014-17) was
politically decided. The main joint priority for the next three years was peace and security (EUAS 2014: Point 6). Finally, it
was in this roadmap, where the first glance of the dichotomy between the old hegemon Europe and its subject Africa came
out: “In addition to current EU support to African-led Peace Support Operations and to the APSA through the African Peace
Facility, we will strengthen mobilisation of African and international resources in order to improve the predictability and
financial sustainability of African peace and security activities, […]” (EUAS 2014: Point 16; markings by the author).
In order to make Africa more predictable, more stable and to implement actions beyond crisis management, the Military
Training Missions where a good start to exert power in an indirect way over several – out of the European view – unruly
regions. In the period from 2013 up to 2017, the big shift – as argued in this paper – happened. Not only started the EU to
deploy more and more troop towards the African continent, but it also screened its near surrounding. As in the revised ENP
stated, the mid-term goals transformed from development to stability, security and in some extent to preservation. In order to
ensure this preservation, the EU invested heavily in its own Intelligence Services (located at the EU military planning staff),
and released so-called “country reports” and action-plans for its nearest neighbors, some of them in the Balkans and Eastern
Europe, some in the Near East, but most in Northern Africa. Some examples may underline the intellectual change that most
EU-representatives had already undergone during this period. For Egypt, as first example, the main priority was the “land for
peace”-principle 1, which is directly linked to peace and security in the region, and as second main objective, enhancing the
dialogue on security issues, such as the fight against terrorism, the proliferation of weapons and migration issues (see EEAP
2014). In its final report 2015, where half of the report dealt with security issues, the European Commission came to the
conclusion that there “…was limited progress on Egypt’s reforms in the areas of democratic governance and human rights,
[…] limited progress in implementing the ENP Action Plan, […] no tangible developments in the fight against corruption,
[and] security threats led to a drop in tourism and investment, and threatened the stability of shipments coming through the
Suez Canal.” (EC 2015:3) Never the less, this doesn’t hinder the EU to invest into the country with more than 1.3 billion €
(see EEAS 2018). One can merely assume what the real purpose of that money shall be, but a closer look to the EU-Egypt
Partnership Priorities 2017-2020 may answer the question: Counter-terrorism and managing migration flows: “Combating
these threats represents a common goal of the EU and Egypt who can cooperate through a comprehensive approach that will
address the root causes of terrorism […]” (EEPP 2017: Chapter II, 3b).
Morocco, as second example, faces other challenges. As the country has strong ties towards France, it is not very
surprising that the county has a privileged status among other North African nations. The initially country report (available
only in French) has 103 pages (compared to the 37 pages covering Egypt with its broader territory and much higher population)
and includes a clear action plan as annex, where the strong ties between the EU (notably France) and Morocco are stated (see
EMAP 2013). At the final report, the EU attested Morocco: “Dans le contexte sécuritaire complexe du conflit syrien, trois
conférences régionales concernant les «combattants étrangers» se sont tenues en février, en septembre et en décembre 2014
respectivement à Bruxelles, à Rabat et à Marrakech, en présence du coordinateur de l'UE pour la lutte contre le terrorisme,
impliquant des États membres et de nombreux pays partenaires. […] En matière de blanchiment d'argent et de financement du
terrorisme, la loi portant approbation de la convention du Conseil de l'Europe relative au blanchiment, au dépistage, à la saisie
et à la confiscation des produits du crime et au financement du terrorisme a été ratifiée et publiée au Bulletin officiel en
septembre. 2” (EC 2015a:8ff) Main fields of the final report are dealing with security issues, such as radical Islamic groups, the
proliferation of weapon and money laundering (as side effect of terrorism). As the country had proven in dealing with these
issues (and security is as shown a main effort of the EU) it earned its reward in 2018, when the bilateral EU-Morocco External
Investment Plan was made public. This Investment brings around 4.1 billion € towards the country (see Abdullah 2018).

“Land for Peace” describes the principle that if Israel will withdraw from occupied territory, the Arab countries will make peace with it. As the empirical
reality shows, this is another illusion the EU tries to believe (see Abu Zayyad: 2012)
Note, the final report is only available in French. It’s message is nevertheless clear: “In the complex security context of the Syrian conflict, three regional
conferences concerning "foreign combatants" were held in February, September and December 2014 in Brussels, Rabat and Marrakech respectively, in the
presence of the EU coordinator for the fight against terrorism, involving Member States and many countries partners. […] In the area of money-laundering
and the financing of terrorism, the law on approval of the Council of Europe Convention on Laundering, Search, Seizure and the seizure and confiscation of
the proceeds of crime and the financing of terrorism has been ratified and published in the Official Bulletin in September. (Translation by the Authors).

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C. Recent developments
In December 2017, the European Union launched its new Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) in the field of
military and defense. This projects "which sets out the Union's ambition of strategic autonomy and aims to enhance the EU’s
capacity as an international security partner, contributing to the protection of EU citizens and ensuring greater effectiveness
of defence spending" (EEAS 2018a) is the starting point of the main development. Without much public debate or echo from
other European Institutions (or media), Frederica Mogherini announced the new flagship project "military mobility" with the
aim to "smooth and efficient movement of military forces across the European Union and beyond" (Mogherini 2017, in EEAS
2018a). But why does the European Union have an immanent need for carrying forces and military equipment through - and
more important - beyond its territory?
When we look at the current involvement of European Forces throughout the world, we can identify 17 different Missions
and Operations (see EEAS 2018b). 9 of these Missions operate in Africa, 4 in the Near East and another 4 in Europe (primarily
on the Balkans and Ukraine).
If we look at Figure 1, we can easily carve out the main effort, which is located in Africa. The primary argument for
sending European forces abroad is the often stated "help for self-help" and mutual understanding - a concept that is obviously
detached from Europe's colonial past. On 24th May 2018, the Director of the Military Planning and Conduct Capability had a
meeting in Mogadishu, where high-ranked military as well as civilian counterparts stated: "All three EU Missions are
committed to making Somalia a safer country" (EEAS 2018c). By assuming that Africa is NOT a safe place and posing an
imminent threat to Europe, we can see an uprising dichotomy with a helper (or hegemon) and a subject that needs assistance.

Figure 1. EU Missions around the world (EAAS 2018b).

The EU – Charta of fundamental rights declares in Article 11 as quoted:

“Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart
information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers” (EU 2016).
Most documents relating the European Union Africa Policy are not open to public – especially those which are dealing with
the future of ongoing missions or the “desired end state” of Africa. As just a small taste of how restrictive the right of
information, a self-declared core value of the EU, is in reality, the following documents are not open to public:
• Military Advice on EUTM Mali Mandate 4 draft Mission Plan (19567/EU XXVI.GP) (EUWC 2018a)
• EU CSDP Military Training Mission in Mali (EUTM Mali)/Information Communication Strategy and Initial Public
Master Messages (17738/EU XXVI.GP) (EUWC 2018b)
• EUTM Mali/Reference Amount - fourth mandate (17230/EU XXVI.GP) (EUWC 2018c)
• EU Capacity Building Mission in Somalia (EUCAP Somalia) - extension - Decision (10364/EU XXVI.GP) (EUWC
The list above could be much longer, but its message is clear: The right of information is deeply tangled by the European
internal interests in Africa.

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D. Empirical outcome
The Treaty dealing with the fundamental function of the European Union quoted in Article 222: “The Union and its
Member States shall act jointly in a spirit of solidarity if a Member State is the object of a terrorist attack or the victim of a
natural or man-made disaster. The Union shall mobilize all the instruments at its disposal, including the military resources
made available by the Member States. […] The European Council shall regularly assess the threats facing the Union in order
to enable the Union and its Member States to take effective action” (EU 2016a). We hereby state that the ongoing military
efforts can see in this light as the direct effect of the regularly assessment of the European Council in order to make it easier

Figure 2. African-led Peace Operations supported by the APF in 2017 (EC 2018: 19).

to deploy more troops in Missions in Africa. There are two main reasons behind sending origin European troops towards the
African continent: First, it is cheaper. As since the founding of the African Peace Facility (a phantom development pot founded
by the EU to foster Peace, security and Stability in Africa) in 2004 around 90,9% (or 2109,7 Million €) of the whole budget
has been allocated for Peace Support Missions (EC 2018: 12). In times where member states moan publicly about lowering
the costs for common EU-pots, the usage of national troop contingents from Europe would fall under national budget costs –
while still enabling the EU as a whole to control the region and its development.
The pervert fact in the growing securitization of Northern Africa is that suddenly, the EU speaks as it acts on behalf of

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the interests of the African Union, but as second agenda, still pushing its own security demands. On the 5th EU-Africa Summit
in November 2017, the final statement on peace and security was: “We acknowledge that Africa and EU have common security
threats. New threats to international and regional peace and security have an impact on the stability of our two continents,
particularly the growing terrorist threats and trans-boundary criminal activities” (EUAS 2017: 2).
Dealing with those threats has become the highest priority in the EU-Agenda. Not only has the Union changed its
partnership programs with the African Union and several bilateral states, spending on defense will boost from 2020 onwards
from current 500 Million € up to 8.9 billion €, according to the proposed EU-budget (EC 2018a: 2). The new threats that had
been repeated over and over again in the time from 2013 onwards, are now becoming visible and have entered every institution
in the EU, as with the Joint Communication Strategy in Jun 2018, the European Council stated: “In response, the European
Council highlighted the need to step up the capacity of the EU and its Member States to detect, prevent and respond to hybrid
threats in areas such as cyber, strategic communication and counter-intelligence. […] However, the EU institutions have
already taken a number of actions to help to reinforce national efforts” (EC 2018b: 1).
As with the end of 2017 Austrian officials and intellectuals articulated Africa as the next hotspot for possible migration
routes (see Haller/Stoisser 2017). The former Austrian Foreign Minister, Sebastian Kurz, stated on 8th September 2017: “Wir
sind froh, dass es in den vergangenen beiden Monaten gelungen ist, die illegalen Ankünfte in Italien über die zentrale
Mittelmeerroute zu reduzieren. Ein Gegensteuern ist also möglich. Aber es braucht eine nachhaltige Lösung. Alles andere
führt am Ende zu einer massiven Sicherheitsbedrohung. […] Der Migrationsdruck aus Afrika ist wesentlich größer als die
einzelnen Krisenherde, die Fluchtbewegungen auslösen 3” ( 2017).
He was accompanied by the Austrian Minister of Defense, Hans Peter Doskozil, who supported this evaluation. The
current Minister of Defense, Mario Kunasek, thought by June this year about sending additional troops to African countries to
protect the European borders ( 2018).

Since the year 2000, the EU and Africa had several stages of cooperation. Beginning with the Cotonou-Agreement on
closer cooperation and primarily development help, main institutions and agents in the European Union had a long-term
strategy of securitizing the relationship between the two continents. As with the Joint-Africa-EU-Strategy a common concern
amongst the EU was articulated, nobody really reacted towards the first steps of a re-imperialization. Beginning with Northern
Africa as its nearest objective, the EU continued to undermine step by step the legitimacy of African Unions internal attempts
to stabilize local conflicts by building up the African Peace Facility and boosting money into it. Together with the EU-African-
Summits and the dictated roadmaps for specific regions of Africa, a new semi-dependency was beginning to arouse and led to
old imperial patterns among several EU member states, as with 2010 the first troops deployed towards Somalia and in 2013
towards Mali.
This marked the beginning of a new era in African-EU-relations, as since then the discourse around the continent was
highly affected by security issues, hybrid threats, migration and terrorism. The aim was to made Africa more predictable and
therefore invest in homegrown Intelligence Services for publishing country-reports that served the Unions agenda. The latest
clout was to sell European interests as African one’s, stating that both continents have the same distinction and facing common
threats. This step opened the door to a policy that could invest in defense and counter intelligence at all costs, even by violating
fundamental rights of EU-citizens for open information.

Abdullah, M. (2018). EU Launches its External Investment Plan in Morocco Available at
external-investment-plan-morocco [Accessed 24 August 2018]
Abu Zayyad, Z. (2012). Israel And Palestine – Last Chance for the Bilateral Process In Palestine-Israel Journal Available at [Accessed 24 August 2018]
Buzan, B., Waever O. and de Wilde, J. (1998). Security: A New Framework for Analysis. Lynne Publisher: London. (2017). Doskozil und Kurz: "Darf keine illegale Migration nach Europa geben"
fuer-restriktive-Migrationspolitik [Accessed 6 July 2018]
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2010_en.pdf [Accessed 23 August 2018]
EC. (2010a) COUNCIL DECISION 2010/96/CFSP of 15 February 2010 on a European Union military mission to contribute to the training of Somali
security forces. Available at [Accessed 23 August 2018]
EC. (2015). JOINT STAFF WORKING DOCUMENT. Implementation of the European Neighbourhood Policy in Egypt Progress in 2014 and
recommendations for actions Available at
01aa75ed71a1/language-en [Accessed 24 August 2018]
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réalisés en 2014 et actions à mettre en oeuvre Available at [Accessed 24 August
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evaluation-2017-vol._1_en.pdf [Accessed 27 August 2018]
EC. (2018a). European Council. EU budget for the future. Available at
may2018_en.pdf [Accessed 27 August 2018]
COUNCIL. Increasing resilience and bolstering capabilities to address hybrid threats. Available at

“We are glad, that in the last two months the numbers of illegal migrants coming from the route via the Mediterranean Sea is declining. It is therefore possible
to work against this development. But we need a sustainable solution. Everything else leads to massive security threats. […] The migration pressure from
Africa is far bigger than the single crisis spots, which lead to migration movements” (Translated by the authors).

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[Accessed 27 August 2018]
EEAP. (2014). EU/Egypt Action Plan. Available at [Accessed 24 August 2018]
EEAS. (2018) EU Projects with Egypt, Available at [Accessed 24
August 2018]
EEAS. (2018a). European Defence: 17 cooperation projects underway; more to follow later in 2018.
building-and-mediation/44123/european-defence-17-cooperation-projects-underway-more-follow-later-2018_en [Accessed 12 June 2018]
EEAS. (2018b). Military and Civilian Missions and Operations.
mediation/area/security-and-defence_en [Accessed 12 June 2018]
EEAS. (2018c). Driving EU civilian-military cooperation forward: joint meeting in Mogadishu by the EU Civilian Operations Commander and the Director
of the EU Military Planning and Conduct Capability.
forward-joint-meeting-mogadishu-eu-civilian_en [Accessed 12 June 2018]
EEPP. (2017) EU-Egypt Partnership Priorities 2017-2020 Available at [Accessed 24 August
EMAP. (2014). EU/Morocco Action Plan. Available at [Accessed 24 August 2018]
Availiable at [Accessed 23 August 2018]
content/EN/TXT/HTML/?uri=CELEX:12016P/TXT&from=EN [Accessed 22 August 2018]
EUROPEAN UNION Available at [Accessed 22
August 2018]
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africa_summit_roadmap_en.pdf [Accessed 23 August 2018]
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[Accessed 27 August 2018]
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[Accessed 22 Aug 2018]
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[Accessed 22 Aug 2018]
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3e1ce81ee890.0004.04/DOC_2&format=PDF [Accessed 23 August 2018]
Haller, Max/ Stoisser, Hans (2017): Migration aus Afrika – Wir müssen umdenken. [Accessed 26 July 2018]
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Kunasek-will-Soldaten-nach-Afrika-schicken;art385,2932769 [Accessed 26 July 2018]
Shadare, Olabode M. (2016). The Joint Africa-EU Strategy in Comparative Study. Master Thesis – Tallinn University.

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Attracting Tourists to the Alley: Subaltern Urbanism in Kampung

Maspati, Surabaya
Tauran, T.
Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Universitas Negeri Surabaya, Surabaya, Indonesia;
Abstract—The objective of this study is to disclose the agency of kampung residents and their role in the urban process. Based
on a case study in Maspati, a kampong, in Surabaya Indonesia, this study demonstrates how the kampung residents transformed
their community from a stigmatised neighbourhood to become an attractive tourism destination. This study applies the
subaltern urbanism framework to examine what kind of urban process is produced by kampong residents who were socially
excluded and without political power. Data for this qualitative research were collected through observation, interviews, and
participating in kampung activities. The interviewees included kampung leaders, kampung dwellers, and officials in district
government. The results show that Maspati Kampung residents are goal-oriented and creative and they manage their
community in flexible and innovative ways. In order to improve their livelihood and social status, they decided to attract
tourists to Maspati. Maspati, largely a narrow alley and with a limited amount of historical attractions, did not look interesting
enough to attract visitors. The residents, however, came up with a plan that turned out to be a success. This was a kampung
tour project, cultural tourism, not a slums tourism. They are offering visitors cultural performances, traditional food,
handicrafts, traditional games, and above all hospitality. The program was carried out by the community leader and women
who have no job. This program has generated income for the residents; strengthened cohesiveness among the kampung
residents; and gives the residents a sense of pride in their kampung. This research provides empirical evidence of the ways
subaltern urbanism works and contributes to the urban processes in Indonesian cities.
Keywords—subaltern urbanism, kampung, land commodification


T HIS paper applies the framework of subaltern urbanism to examine how a kampung in Surabaya, Indonesia, improved
their livelihood and answered the challenges of land commodification. Introduced by Ananya Roy (2011) this framework
undertook a theorisation of subaltern spaces and classes and argued that place such the slum is a dynamic terrain of habitation,
livelihood, and politics. She believed this framework could transform ´the ways the cities of the global South are studied and
represented in urban research.’ This is also a politics of recognition that possible to put the place such slum and its people as
account for urban theory (ibid).
For those, unlike several studies see kampungs and their residents a problem rather than resources, this paper is interesting
in investigating the agency of kampung residents that make their kampungs viable and sustainable, while the grand narrative
of kampung is slums with uncultured people. This paper is not to romanticise kampungs, but to explore the possibilities and
capabilities of kampungs and their residents in urban process. The case of this study is Maspati, old kampung in the city centre
of Surabaya, the second largest city in Indonesia. The kampung faces the challenges of land commodification. To answer the
challenges and to improve their livelihood, the kampung developed cultural tourism, not a slums tourism, to attract tourists.
Applying the subaltern urbanism framework, this paper will contribute by providing empirical evidence of the ways subaltern
urbanism works in Surabaya.
Data for this qualitative research were collected during five months of fieldwork in Surabaya, between Mei – September
2017 through observation, interviews, and participating in kampung activities. The interviewees included kampung leaders,
kampung dwellers, and officials in district government.


Kampung is the Malay word for “village,” referring to a small rural settlement, but the word also indicates to a separate
urban community and neighbourhood (Yeoh, 2010:419, Nas et al., 2008:645) which exist in some Southeast Asian countries.
This review of the literature shows that there is a variety of definitions of kampung. Two definitions can be distinguished:
kampung either as a spatial or as a social formation. As a spatial formation, kampung refers to the settlement either in rural or
urban areas. As a social formation, kampung refers to a community with kinship ties, solidarity with others, and which is
egalitarian and residents helping each other. In the same time, the term is also used to signify the people who are deemed
uncivilised, rough, and incompatible with urban culture.
As a spatial formation, referring to its location, Funo (2002) classifies kampungs into three categories: urban kampung,
fringe kampung, and rural kampung. While Ford (1993) classifies kampungs into four types; inner-city kampung, mid-city
kampung, rural kampung, and temporary squatter kampung. However, all of those strikingly differs from planned residential
areas. Kampungs are categorised as informal settlements (Jones, 2017, Hutama, 2016; Tunas, 2008). Characteristic of them is
an unplanned spatial layout, a lack of basic services, informal and insecure property rights, and vulnerability to discrimination
(UN-Habitat, 2003). In urban areas, since of fast urbanisation and migration, kampungs has transformed become a high densely
settlement, remaining narrow alleyways between the buildings with lack any design, and often lack infrastructure and services.
However, some kampung may be built on registered land, while some other built on the unregistered land with the ambiguous
and contentious field of land rights (Leaf, 1993).

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As a social formation, the term kampung refers to such idyllic community in rural areas with kinship ties, egalitarian
solidarity, and mutual aid among neighbours (Newberry, 2008; Yeoh, 2010). While in urban areas, kampung and its residents
have a negative connotation which is regarded as a relic from an agrarian way of life living in an urban context and believed
to become demolished by the modernisation. The residents have a stigma of being kampungan meaning uncivilised, rough,
boorish, uncultured, poor, potentially dangerous and subversive people, ill-mannered and incompatible with urban culture
(Guinnes, 2009; Bunnell, 2002). It has similar meaning with the English word for ´slum´ that immediately conjures up strong
images of poverty and misery, danger and decay (Nuissl and Heinrichs, 2013). Both in terms of social and spatial formations,
kampungs have placed outside of urban modernity. Kampungs and its residents are objects of urban redevelopment and
In general, kampungs in urban area are described as part of planet of slums (Davis, 2004:14; Cities Alliance, The World
Bank, and Habitat, 1999:1), as a group of individuals who are living under the same roof in an urban area and lack one or more
of the following: 1) durable housing that protects against extreme climate; 2) sufficient living space; 3) easy access to safe
water; 4) adequate sanitation; 5) security of tenure (UN-HABITAT: 2006). Kampungs are also classified as shanty towns
(Gottdiener and Budd, 2005:137) with poverty, crime, health crises, and children without future, and deemed by the
government as the site of social pollution (Seng, 2007). Nevertheless, as revealed by Ford (1993) there are some types of
kampungs which differently with squats. Then similar with Nijman (2009) to Dharavis, Funo (2002) also questioned the
accuracy of the concept of slums to kampungs.

Many studies have treated kampungs and their residents more like an object in urban development rather than the subject
of the change. However, treating kampungs and their residents as an object of development without understanding how they
are mobilised as subjects is a limited view of kampungs and does not help the city to deal with kampungs which are a home
for more than a half of city residents. We need a more contextual perspective to see kampungs. Perspectives that offers
exploration and liberating potential of kampungs. Perspectives that describe not only the problems faced by the space and
subaltern people, but also their agency. Perspectives that gives them a place as a subject in urban process
Ananya Roy (2011) has offered an idea of subaltern urbanism. With this, she means as a framework to ‘understand and
transform the ways the cities in the global South are studied and represented in urban research’. She argues that subaltern
urbanism can help us move beyond the limits of our understanding and revitalise the agency of subaltern people. This
framework undertook the theorisation of subaltern spaces and classes and argued that place such the slum is a dynamic terrain
of habitation, livelihood and politics (ibid). Subaltern urbanism is a general process that may be taking place anywhere,
including in the global North (Schindler, 2014). This is also a politics of recognition that possibly to put the place such slum
and its people as account for urban theory (Roy, Rao. 2006).
Originally, the term ‘subaltern’ was introduced by Antonio Gramsci but has been developed in postcolonial studies by
Subaltern Studies group which generally considers subalterns as persons or agents whose voices are not heard (Yeboah, 2006).
It refers to 'any low-rank person or group of people in a particular society suffering under hegemonic domination of elite ruling
class that denies them the basic rights of participation in the making of local history and culture as active individuals of the
same nation' (Louai, 2012). Subaltern urbanism then “tends to remain bound to the study of spaces of poverty, of essential
forms of popular agency, of the habitus of the dispossessed, of the entrepreneurialism of self-organizing economies” (Roy,
2011: 231).
Applying this subaltern urbanism framework, this paper is to disclose the agency of kampung residents in Maspati,
Surabaya which has transformed their community from a stigmatised neighbourhood to become an attractive tourism
destination. This paper, therefore, deals with the agency of subaltern people and place in urban process, as advocated by
Herzfeld (2016), Nijman (2010), and Bayat (2007).


In Indonesia, urban kampongs are not rural kampung or temporary squatter kampungs. Urban kampungs are characterized
by high density, built around narrow lanes, with little open space in the kampung area, but close to the employment or business
centre. Administratively, an urban kampung is under the Kelurahan, a sub district government. An urban kampung may consist
of at least one community association that called RW (rukun warga/ community harmony) and several household associations
that called RT (rukun tetangga/ household harmony). RW/RT are neighbourhood units. These divisions originated from the
Japanese wartime administration (Tonarigumi or Chounaikai) and were adopted by the post-independent governments as an
effective way of governing urban population. Ideally, RT comprise no more 30 households and RW three to seven RT. This
administrative structure was implemented for all settlements in the city.
Most urban poor live in kampungs (Nas, 2008:646, Garr 1986; Toer, 1996). However, there are not only poor people
living in kampungs, in some kampungs, there are also middle-income households (Ernawati et al. 2013; Schefold and Nas,
2008:647).). The diversity of its inhabitant intertwining altogether in property ownership, occupation, education, origin, and
religious practice. Based on his studies in Java, Guinnes (2009:15-16) argues kampungs still maintain their community values
such as ‘rukun’ (social harmony) and ‘gotong-royong ‘(mutual aid). Rukun and gotong royong are characteristics connected
to kampung residents. Rukun is an ideology of social relations at the neighbourhood level by which people express and justify
their actions. The moral imperative of rukun is individual self-control, to avoid emotional confrontation with others. ‘Gotong

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royong' is a form of action usually done by groups of people to achieve a shared objective.
As informal settlements, the houses in urban kampungs are built by individuals without following building guidelines
(Nas, 2008:646; Ernawati et al. 2013:25). Kampungs’ building density is high, and the narrow alleyways between the buildings
lack any design. In contrast, formal settlements are built with good design buildings, organized, good infrastructure, and
separated from urban kampungs by a wall to give their residents a safe and secure environment. This striking contrast has led
to the situation in which urban kampungs are stigmatised by a negative image. Not only the urban kampung as a neighbourhood
is stigmatized but its residents as well. The label that reflects urban middle-class prejudice against kampung residents (Nas,
However, kampung in Indonesia is not only a residential area but also a dynamic terrain of habitation and home-based
entrepreneurs (Funo, 2002). Some kampung residents produce in their homes food, household goods, handicraft and then sell
these in the market. There can also be tailors, barbers, and warungs (‘small shop’). Most of these are not controlled by the

A. Maspati Kampung and Its residents: Idyllic Principles in Confined Space
The case of this study is Maspati (Figure 1), a kampung in the downtown of Surabaya, the second largest city in Indonesia.
Located 250 meters from the Surabaya city landmark “Tugu Pahlawan” (Heroes Monument) in Bubutan district, this kampung
hidden behind the shops and trading activities along a busy road around the city centre. Maspati is an old settlement where
there are still some colonial buildings inside. There is also a preserved tomb of “Mbah Buyut Suruh” which is believed to be
the tomb of the royal family of Javanese kingdom.

Industrial area
Commercial area

Settlement area

Green Open space

x Maspati Kampung

Figure 1. Maspati´s Kampung in the Land use map of Surabaya.

Maspati, about 37,000 sqm has grown into a dense neighbourhood built along two alleyways. There are 245 families
registered with 167 households (71 percent) lived in houses with an area less than 60 sqm. About 105 houses (42 percent) do

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not have building permits yet, and 74 houses (30 percent) stand on land that also has not been registered yet. There are 120
households (49 percent) have been living for more than 30 years and only 40 households (16 percent) for less than ten years.
Territorially, they are divided into five household associations (RT) in one community association (RW), where two of them
(RT1 and RT2) that located at the east of kampung was more populated than others (Maspati Profile, 2017).
Maspati´s residents work in different occupations, have a different level of education, and practice different religions.
Majority of residents are people who rely on their earning from wage labour either in the formal or informal sector. There is
also the home-based entrepreneur who use the home to run a business such as Warung (small-shop), tailor, barber shop, and
home industry inside the kampung. The small-shops provide limited daily groceries to serve inhabitants. The costumer of tailor
and barber are mostly their neighbour. The home industries such as plastic packaging, baby mattress, and traditional recipe
food with two to seventh employee serve some market in the city.
Even though living in the dense settlement, the resident Anto, an entrepreneur, 45 years old, felt at home in Maspati since
he thought the people are affable and harmonious. “I had lived in Bandung and Jakarta, and now I have been living in Maspati
for 12 years. I like this kampung compare to my previous residence. People here are friendly and care to their neighbour”.
He said the feeling as a member of the community seems strong within the resident. Residents have a habit of greeting each
other when they meet another resident in their alleyway. Another resident, Sur, 69 years old, a Chinese descent, asserted that
she is happy living in Maspati. “I have been living in Maspati more than 60 years, and I am happy living in here because the
people are care with their neighbour. We care to our neighbours especially when one of us gets sick or mourns.” Anto and
Sur think that Maspati´s residents still maintained their communal values such as harmony (rukun) and mutual aid (gotong-
The residents have several community activities such as the PKK and Yasinan. The PKK (Pendidikan Kesejahteraan
Keluarga/ the Family Welfare Movement) is a community association the membership of which is based on residence, gender
(women) and marriage. Every month, there are meetings of PKK in Maspati. The yasinan is a kind of joint pray every Thursday
night for Muslim. This is a tradition that performed by the Javanese Muslim community. They also have an agreement to keep
their alley as a public space safe and pleasant. It was a prohibition to ride motorbikes along the alley. People must turn off
their motorbikes and guide their bikes to the intended endpoint by walking. This agreement was made by residents to save the
children who often played along the alley and to avoid noise and pollution inside kampung.
B. Maspati´s Resident: Against Land Commodification
For Maspati’s residents, living in the city centre and close to commercial activities does not necessarily mean a benefit
for their livelihood. It means uncertainty. Residents are fully aware that they are living in an area where the land is valuable.
Rin, 45 years old, coordinator of PKK disclosed “Many parties interested in this kampung because we live in the city centre….
Now, there are some houses already sold to the outsider for warehouse”. As stated by Rin, some houses in kampung have
changed into storehouse. Trader favour this area as it provides easy access to place and distribute the commodities. This
situation was considered a threat to the community. Sabar, 48 years old, the chief of community association (RW) asserted:
“We are worried if there will be more houses replaced by the warehouse. It will reduce our people, degrade our community,
and finally, eliminate our kampung”.
The changes some dwelling into warehouse are not a new treat for Maspati´s kampung. As Rin told. “in the 1990´s, we
had been offered three million rupiahs per meter for our land. But we did not get a deal because there was no agreement
among residents to respond the offer”. The residents claimed that they had received some bids to sell their land. The offer
come from hotel developer and cigarette company through brokers. Some residents refuse to sell their land for various reasons
such as keeping family inheritance, not wanting lost their old neighbours, close to the workplace etc. While some residents
want to accept the offer if the price is satisfied.
The treat of land commodification on kampungs in Surabaya is not a new phenomenon. That is not the only case in
Surabaya. Some old kampungs have been demolished and replaced by hotels and commercial developments. In the city centre,
Karangbulak kampong was replaced by Hyatt Hotel, Blauran-Kidul kampung replaced by Empire Hotel, and Kaliasin kampung
replaced by Tunjungan Plaza shopping mall. The booming real estate business has been one those of threats jeopardising
kampungs in Surabaya. As the second largest city in Indonesia, Surabaya has attracted heavy flow of property investment. In
the last five years, the economy of Surabaya has been growing 7% a year and always above the national average of 5,02%.
Real estate business in Surabaya grew significantly, and offices building, apartment, retail, and hotel were developed in the
last decade. Land prices raised between 10% - 15% per year. In 2016, there was 27,260 sqm new office buildings developed
making the total amount of the office space 296,512 sqm. In the Hotel sector, there are 1,920 new hotel rooms available during
2016 (Colliers Report, 2016).
Regarding this issue, Eko, Chief of Bubutan District argued:
“The survival of kampung will depend on the livelihood of its residents. It could be the case that the municipality has
provided amenities (for kampung), but when the residents were seduced (by developers) then the kampung will disappear”.
The authorities believed that the survival of kampung depends on its inhabitants. The government had no program to
protect the kampung from the commodification and selling of land. Instead of such a programme, the municipality has
programs to help the poor and low-income people to be able to help themselves, for example, the programmes educating them
skills required in the labour market or to become entrepreneurs. The municipality defended these programmes by arguing that
the survival of the kampung could not be separate with the economic situation of its residents and that these programmes
improve livelihood of kampung residents. However, the municipality’s persuasion that the economic empowerment

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programme would save the kampung from land commodification, did not convince Maspati’s residents, and they began
planning their own programme
C. From a stigmatised neighbourhood to an attractive tourist destination
Around five years ago, the household association RT-2, the dense dwelling in Maspati kampung, made a simple project
for their members, titled "Green with 500 rupiahs". The project implemented by collect 500 rupiahs from each family, once a
week, to buy plants for each house. The purpose of this project is simple, make up their house surroundings to be tidier and
greens. It was sound a funny project for the residents, since at that time, 500 rupiahs was not a significant amount for the
residents. For instance, the price of a rose at that time was 3000 rupiahs. Since it was sounded funny and cheap for its members,
who majority poor, all members are committed to partake and make this project successful.
However, the mission behind this project was not beautify the kampung by planting flowers, but to raise the awareness
of residents for the cleanliness and greenery of the kampung. This was to fight against the stigmatization of kampungs as dirty
places. Yit, 46 years old, the chief of RT2 explained: “by this project, we want to convince our residents who are mostly poor,
that to make a clean, neat and green settlement is not expensive”. This project was successful in mobilizing residents to
improve their settlement. All residents involved to spruce their dwelling and its surrounding and supplementing with potted
plants. Some residents, without waiting for the money collected, bought more pot plants and shared them with their poor
This project has inspired four other household associations (RT) in Maspati to do such this project. Thanks to the efforts
of the residents, the Maspati kampung was transformed from slum to a clean settlement with flowers and plants. In 2013,
Maspati won ‘The green and clean contest’ that was organised by the municipality. This prize, recognised in the local media,
gave the residents confident and pride of their kampung. The prize was a milestone that increased residents’ care of their
neighbourhood. This was also their victories to fight against the stigma.
However, the residents are mindful that winning in an environmental contest does not answer their daily problems. For
Maspati´s residents that majority rely on their earning from wage labour, their biggest concern is how to increase income and
survive from the threat of land commodification. Sabar argued, “Kampung’s residents need more than an award. They need
economic security. They need a continuous income”. For this reason, Maspati’s residents come up with a plan a tourist business
for their residents. It was Sabar´s idea the chief of community association (RW). He stated that the idea was inspired after
seeing the enthusiasm of residents making improvements of kampung amid their limitations due to poverty. He believes that
most of residents have a concern to make the kampung pleasant actually. Unfortunately, they cannot do much to partake
because of poverty. Sabar explained: “A kampong in the city should not only be a decent place for living but must generate
income to its residents… We want to attract visitors into kampung to generate economic activities our residents”
In the beginning, many residents presumed the idea to make Maspati as a tourist destination is unrealistic. They argued,
although Maspati located in the downtown, it lacked adequate infrastructure to be a tourist destination. Moreover, Maspati
only has a limited amount of physical and historical attractions. Also, the worst, Maspati located in the narrow alley between
dense dweller. Though, Sabar knew that his idea sounds difficult to be realised, but it still possible. To support his idea, firstly,
Sabar persuaded the chief of household association (RT), the chief of PKK, and young kampung leader to be the pioneer of
this project. Then, they began to raise the confidence of the residents to take benefit the potential of the kampung. All residents
were asked to maintain the cleanliness and tidiness of kampung and be friendly to the visitor who visits the kampung. They
made this project open to all residents and voluntary. The primary target of the program implementers are residents who do
not have jobs and housewives who seek additional income.
They were success to realise the project. This was a kampung tour program, cultural tourism, not a slums tourism or
poverty tourism. The residents refused to exhibit their poor living condition as commodity. They enthusiastic to resist the grand
narrative of kampung and conjure the kampung to become “living museum” of the city that offering a nostalgic space for
visitors to rediscover indigenous community and its tradition. Housewives, unemployed, and young resident were the main
force in implementing the plan.
They began improving the kampong physically, cleaned the area and painted walls. They identified the colonial-era
buildings and designated them tourism areas. They painted a path along the alley and arranged a traditional game area for
visitors. They reproduced some traditional toys that have been difficult to find, to be sold to visitors. They encouraged young
residents to begin practicing traditional music to be performed for the tourists. They encouraged housewives to make traditional
food to be sold to the visitors.
They also branded themselves as the Kampung Lawas Maspati (the old kampong of Maspati) and began offering a
kampung tour program which consisted of cultural performances, traditional food, handicrafts, traditional games, and above
all hospitality. They made known that their kampung can give a historical tour to social and cultural life of idyllic community
that has disappeared in Surabaya. They sold tour packages ranging from individual to group tour packages. The ticket for
individual tour packages, without a tour guide and seeing a cultural performance, is five thousand rupiahs (about 30 cent euro).
Two million rupiahs (about 125 euro) for a group package. Social media such as Facebook, WhatsApp, and Instagram are the
primary medium to advertise the program and Maspati.
The residents, with their joint efforts, succeeded to attract visitors, and visitors meant income for the residents. The visitors
brought by tourist agencies, government official, school, and university people. The money the tourist business brought is
managed by the community association and shared with all the resident who participated in this program. This program has
generated income for the residents; strengthened cohesiveness among the kampung residents; and gives the residents a sense

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of pride of their kampung.

Contrast to the grand narrative of kampung, Maspati´s residents showed they are creative, goal-oriented, and able to
manage the community in flexible and innovative ways. To realise this tourist kampung project, the residents were able to
capitalize a potential of kampung by relating to city history and traditions. They produced creative rhetoric of cultural identity.
They campaigned that Maspati is an old settlement that bounded to the important history of the city. They promoted some
kampung properties such as a colonial house that was used as a place for resistance to the Dutch colonial, old building former
Javanese school building in the colonial era, and also a tomb which claimed as a royal family who founded the city. They can
optimize kampung resources to achieve their goals to become a tourist destination. They are also pragmatic, and goal oriented
in carrying out this community project. They made these activities to directly address their daily problems, generating income.
They are also skilful to organize themselves in the community association. They have flexibility to deal with residents
with various education level, occupation, social background. The impressive thing, they are open and easy to work with other
groups both formal and informal. They are agile to make a network with the government institution, company, Non-
Government Organizations, School, University and community. In this case, their capability is a contrast to the narrative of
kampung´s people who were described as uncivilised people and incompatible with urban culture.
Nevertheless, in line their enthusiasm, endurance, creativity, they need leadership that can direct their agency. They need
leadership that can coordinate their energy and connects with networks of stakeholders outside the kampung.

This research provide empirical evidence of the ways subaltern urbanism works and contributes to the urban process in
Surabaya. Maspati´s case show that urban poor are not passive people who conceded to be objects of urban development. They
involved actively both to improve their livelihood and to guard their space from land commodification by giving a new meaning
for the place they live in. A new meaning that empowers the residents and changes the way the city views the kampung.
Maspati´s residents refused to sell their poor living condition as a commodity. Instead, they set the kampung cleaner, tidy
and green to avoid a stigma, and conjure the kampung to what Herzfield (2006) called as a “living museum” of the city. They
offer their kampung as a nostalgic space for visitors to rediscover indigenous community and its tradition which characterized
by informal life, friendly and humble people, harmonious community, foods and traditions. They restored the meaning of
kampung to its idyllic community of kampung. This fact becomes interesting not only for their actions to change the image of
their settlement but also for their spirit of resistance to the grand narrative of kampung as slums and uncivilized people. The
passionate actions of residents to change their place indicate that they are not people who are living for waiting for government
intervention. They are enthusiastic people who strive to improve their space and livelihood.
Differently with Dharavi (Weinstein, 2014) and Pom-Mahakam (Herzfield, 2016) where slum residents deal with city
governments that criminalize their activities, Maspati´s residents use social tourism supported by the municipality as their
strategies to control their land. These strategies may differ as a result of the institutional context in which they are embedded
and resources, but the goals of securing urban space are similar.
Research may indicate that subaltern urbanisms engender similar responses from residents to deal with land
commodification especially for residents located in the city centre, where land is a valuable commodity. Residents in Maspati
seem to exhibit similar responses: they seek to control urban space and engage in ‘plucky entrepreneurialism’ (Schindler,
2014) with social tourism which providing economic benefits for residents as the host (Minnaert et al. 2011).

This paper is a part of a doctoral research in Department of Social Research, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki.
It is funded by the Indonesia Endowment Fund for Education (LPDP) under the Directorate General of Higher Education
(DIKTI) Program in the BUDI-LN Scheme. Conclusion or opinion expressed in this research, do not necessarily reflect the
views of the institution or organisation that mentioned above.

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Trends in Population Migration in Post-Communist Countries: Case

Study of the Czech Republic
Novák, V.,* and Palcrová, Š.
Department of Regional Development and Public Administration, Faculty of Social and Economic Studies, Jan Evangelista
Pukryně University in Ústí nad Labem, Ústí nad Labem, Czech Republic; *
Abstract—The main aim of the paper is to describe the trends of migration flows of population after the collapse of the
totalitarian regime in one of the post-communist countries. Based on the data gathered, the authors present perspectives on
further development of the spatial distribution of population in the Czech Republic. The data on both long-term and short-term
migration are used in the paper. The data on migration are provided by the Czech Statistical Office from both the continuous
population statistics as well as the census. Besides the basic demographic methods focused on measuring the migration
intensity, the authors also used the GIS method to present the data used. The migration of population, from the spatial
perspective, is examined on the level of regions of the Czech Republic. A particular attention is paid to the metropolitan area
of the capital city of the Czech Republic. Since the nineties, Prague and its wider hinterland formed by the Central Bohemian
Region have been showing the most significant growth of population among all the regions of the Czech Republic. The core
of the metropolitan region is formed by the Prague agglomeration whose delimitation is in terms of the territorial-administrative
structure of the Czech Republic relatively complicated. The article uses commuting data to present a solution to this problem.
The authors also pay attention to migration loss in regions – mostly the old industrial regions and marginal regions. The Ústí
Region, the Karlovy Vary Region and the Moravian-Silesian Region fall within this category and are classified by the
government as structurally affected regions.
Keywords—migration, regions of the Czech Republic, Prague agglomeration


S INCE the 1990s, the post-communist countries have been undergoing economic transformation. In the Czech Republic, it
resulted also in social transformations characteristic for their dynamic differentiation tendencies. The consequences –
inner social and territorial polarisations (Hampl 2007). On grounds of the centrally planned economy during the Socialist era,
the intrastate migration flows were influenced by the decisions of the governments, or rather the ruling Communist Party. Such
decisions concerned especially residential housing as a result of the support of development of preferred branches of industries
linked to particular regions (e.g. coalfields). After the fall of Communism and the switch to market economy, some of the
supported branches of industries became quickly deteriorating branches of industries. Black coal mining industry
and the successive metallurgical industry in the Moravian-Silesian Region registered a high decrease in jobs. The mining of
brown coal in the Ústí and Karlovy Vary Regions was also being limited. The attractiveness of individual regions in the Czech
Republic started to change due to changes in the distribution of job opportunities (Blažek, 2001) and in the economic aggregate
(Viturka et al., 2003). This naturally influenced the intrastate population migration, in some regions, of course, positively. The
growing tertiary sector with added value absorbing population with attained tertiary education is typical for the Prague
metropolitan region – and also other regions within Europe, as Krätke (2007) confirms.
Subsidies to residential housing were in the nineties, contrary to the Socialist era, fully eliminated. This led to a substantial
drop in the volume of interregional migration. The permanent change of residence was, to a certain degree, replaced by other
(transitional) forms of population mobility such as non-daily commute to work (Ptáček et al., 2007). In the following decades,
this trend changed due to the growing distribution and availability of mortgage credits even for the middle classes (Ouředníček,
Posová, 2006). This influenced the more intensive distribution of population within the Czech Republic through inner
migration after the year 2000. This paper belongs thematically to the outputs dealing with regional development. The theory
is based on the work of D. Massey (1984) on spatial divisions of labour since inner migration in the Czech Republic after 1990
was caused by differences between the regional job markets. This resulted from a spatial distribution of governance structures
in the private as well as the public sector which led to a functional division of labour among the regions, including branches
of industries and corporations. The spatial