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Societal Risk Mapping: A useful extension

of QRA visualisation

Hans Boot
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Hans Boot
Societal Risk Mapping

Contents

Background: History safety legislation in the Netherlands, coloured


books, TNO
Quantitative Risk Assessment: What, Why, How
Risk definitions: Criteria INDIVIDUAL / SOCIETAL risk
Usage of risk assessment criteria in Netherlands
Using criteria for urban development planning
The concepts of societal risk maps
Different types of SR maps
What do we see? / How are they constructed?

Practical applications: experiences in several cases

Conclusions & evaluation


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Safety legislation in the


Netherlands Does urban development
invoke a SOCIETAL RISK
Densely populated areas close to problem here?
industrial sites:
requires strict regulation on safety !
Already in the eighties: development
of “coloured books”: How to perform
a consequence analysis, How to
do a QRA
The obligatory safety report for
SEVESO cat2+ companies should
contain a QRA !
Currently, risk criteria also used in
“urban development planning”:

Scarce space: “Do we have problems with safety in this area?


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TNO and “coloured books”


TNO is “Netherlands organization for Applied Scientific Research”
Semi-governmental contract research organisation
In the 80’s and 90’s: responsible for “Yellow book” and “Green book”

Describing typical methods to predict


“Consequences” (formula’s and overview of
existing modelling approaches)
1980’s
1990’s

2000’s

2010’s

If we want to use models we needed them in a 2015

software tool: this evolved to a commercial spin-


off research
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Consequence and Risk modelling

Consequence analysis: first part of QRA


Define potential Consequence
(an important first step !) accident
analysis
scenarios

Estimate potential
Risk = Chance * Consequence ?? Evaluate event
consequences
accident
frequencies

Risk assessment includes failure frequencies, Estimate the


impact of events
event probabilities & weather statistics
Estimate the risk

Quantitative Risk Assessment aims at finding a


quantitative value for the risk that you can Evaluate the risk

judge against acceptance criteria


Identify and
prioritize
potential risk
reducing
measures
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Consequence and Risk Analysis: sources


Purple Book (NL: Handleiding Risicoberekening BEVI)
(CPR-18)
Identification of
Hazid, Hazop, FMEA accident scenario’s
Chance scenario

Determining physical
Red Book
Yellow Book (CPR-14) effects
Chance effect (CPR-12)

Determining the
Green Book (CPR-16) damage
Chance damage

Consequence of risk Chance of risk

Consequence Chance

Other sources: Quantification of risk Failure freq data:


CCPS Guideline books Orida database
HSE publications Evaluate risk HSE (hydrocarbon
release statistics)
Local regulations ? DNV failure freq database
Risk Reducing proposals
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Purpose of risk assessment

Determine the risk of (fatal) injury to employees, the public or the


environment, due to accidental release of a hazardous material,
from production, storage, handling and transport.

Judge the risk against tolerance criteria, set by


the government or by the company internally

Determination of (absolute or relative) contribution


of the risk sources to the individual (aka locational)
and/or societal risk
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Purpose of risk assessment and – analysis (2)


Identification of opportunities of risk reduction and their effects
Modifications in process design or operation
Mitigating measures
Modification of plant layout
Alternative options for transportation
Change in land-use planning around plant
Implement / prioritize emergency preparation and response

In The Netherlands, nowadays: important instrument in land-use


decision making
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Risk definitions in a QRA

Risk = probability of undesired outcome

In QRA for hazardous materials:

Risk = probability of fatal injury due to exposure to release


of hazardous material

Risk is a QUANTIFIED VALUE (for probability of undesired


outcome)

Risk Assessment: Calculate such a risk


value for an activity / site / area
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Risk assessment procedure

A QRA requires to perform typical basic steps

1. Identify relevant activities / units / processes


2. Define Loss of Containment cases (which scenarios can happen)
3. Assess consequences (effects & damage) for all LoCs
4. Assess frequency and likelihood of LoCs and consequences
5. Calculate risk value for process / site / area
6. Present risk in IR-contours and/or SR-curve
7. Evaluate and analyse risk

Note: IR can be used on-site and off-site,


SR always offsite (“external” safety)
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Risk criteria 1 = Individual Risk (“Locational risk”)

The risk at a location outside the premises of an establishment,


expressed as the likelihood per year that a person that is continuously
and without protection at that location, is killed as a consequence of an
event inside the establishment leading to the release of a dangerous
chemical, dangerous waste or a pesticide.

Note:
‘Establishment’ also means ‘Activity’ like transport
‘Individual Risk’ is also being referred to as ‘Locational Risk’
A value associated with a coordinate, usually presented as Iso Risk Contours
The dimension is frequency: Hz . . . but expressed as “per year”
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Calculating Individual Risk (aka Locational risk)


Start with a scenario consequence analysis: which phenomena ?
Provides a lethality footprint (ellipse, cone, circular)

Determine failure frequency for Loss of Containment


Combine with “probability of wind blowing in that direction”
A receiver at a specific spot, can be hit by wind from different angles,
each time with different lethality fractions !
Receiver X,Y: hit by
Combine all events and all scenarios into various
total chance of dying at THAT spot wind-directions

A QRA= Book-keeping chances & lethality's


Source
location
Presented on a MAP as ISO RISK CONTOURS
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Risk criteria 2 = Societal Risk (“Group risk”)

Cumulative probability per year that at least 10, 100 of 1000 people
will be killed as a direct result of their presence within the impact area
of an establishment and the occurrence of an event in which a
dangerous chemical, dangerous waste or a pesticide is involved.

Presented as a log/log
graph: frequency vs
Unaccceptable
number of people
(at least N victims)
Reduction
desired

Accceptable
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Calculating Societal Risk (“Group risk”)


Same input as IR: scenarios, failure frequencies, weather/wind
statistics but also POPULATION DISTRIBUTION (geographic info)
For Societal Risk
1. For every event (scenario,wind angle) count the total number of
people lethality injured (=size of group) and store chance of this
“event” (direction with weather class) : gives a F and N
2. Cumulate ALL wind-directions, ALL weather classes into FN curve
Scenario 1+2
cumulative
frequency Scenario 2
10-5

10-6
Within
Scenario 1 Source footprint:
10-7 location number
Number killed
of
25 50
victims
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Dutch Legislation on external safety : use of criteria


Individual (or Locational) risk
Presented on map: ISO Risk Contours
No “vulnerable objects“ within 10-6 contour
Based on unprotected situation, outside,
100% presence
Strict rule: authorities are drawing lines !

Societal risk (Group risk):


A 2 dimensional graph
Indicative “guide” values:
stationary/transport
Motivation (measures) when exceeding
or increase due to developments
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Dutch Legislation on external safety


“The Societal risk” = 2D graph
Calculated by using
“geographical oriented”
scenario’s & population
distribution !!
A measure for Social Disruption
Difficult to comprehend by local
authorities and land use
planners: Where ? Why ?
Which area’s still have
development space ?
Need for Societal Risk
visualisation, displayed on a
map
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Requirements for Societal Risk maps


Which population is contributing to the societal risk ?

Which area’s do already have a SR problem ?

What is the extend of the problem ?

Which area’s are “safer” or “less


affected” : provide possibilities for
urban development or extension
industrial activities ?

No new criteria ! Just a visualization


method based on standard
calculation
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Societal Risk Maps: SR Contribution map


What if we store SR calculation results per “population grid cell”
Use standardized (Purple Book) method for calculation of SR
• Scenario list: locations, frequencies, lethal inside/outside effect definitions
• Wind/weather definition: probabilities for occurring stability classes/wind
speeds and wind directions
• Population definition: day/night, inside/outside: cell based grid

Store intermediate results to obtain “geographic oriented” information


per grid cell
• Nr of victims / lethal “response” fraction per grid cell + Frequencies
• Stored for each cell and each (sub) event that hits the cell
• Event = Scenario + Wind direction + Stability class combination

Eventually provides full “FN curve” information for each cell


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Societal Risk Contribution map: How ?

N=1.5N=3
D N=1.7
F = 1e-6
N=2
A F = 0.3e-6
B
F = 1e-9

F=0.6e-10

For every scenario event: store cell victims N and frequency F


Eventually provides FN curve for that cell
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Societal Risk Contribution map: Result


Gives an illustration of relative contribution to the Societal Risk
Illustrates “Hotspots”: possible problem causing habitation

Every cell with population gets a


colour, corresponding to FN curve
Translating FN curve to colour:
“Expected value”
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Societal Risk Area map: How ?

F = 1e-6, N = 150

F = 0.3e-6
F = 1e -9 , N = 400

N = 50

F=0.6e-10, N = 80

For every scenario event: store total victims N and frequency F


Eventually provides FN curve per cell = SR for scenario’s hitting cell
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Societal Risk Area map: Result


Gives an presentation of magnitude and extent of Societal Risk
Illustrates IF there is a problem, WHERE there is a problem

Every cell gets a colour,


corresponding to its FN (=SR
affecting events)
Translating FN curve to colour:
relative to “Guide value”
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Geographic presentations of SR
Societal Risk “Area” map Societal Risk “Contribution” map
Gives an indication of which areas are Gives indication of amount that areas
affected and presents the level of the
risk contribute to risk
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Experiences IJmond study

Area with fertilizer plant, steel


industry, LPG filling stations, LPG
road transport, rail transport
flammables.
Using scale 6 colours : more
distinction problem or not
Emphases LPG risks causing
problems

Growing understanding spatial


distribution risks
Rerouting of LPG transport
considered
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Experiences Terneuzen study

Area with NH3 production site,


Bromide storage, many pipelines,
road an rail transport
Urban development plans: leisure
center and educational institute
Maps are created from “receivers
point of view”: which scenario’s
are affecting me ?
Legislation: responsibility creator
source risk

Fascinating debates about justification “cumulating” of risks (Insight)


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Possibilities with map visualisation:

Simply an additional view presented on a map !


Possible to include/exclude scenarios (maps for subsets)
Compare difference after change population / change of process

Because intermediate results are stored, fast interactive evaluation of


alternative urban development plans is possible:
1. Possibility to evaluate change population distribution → what
happens with risk maps and total fN
2. Possibility to include temporary population presence with specific
inside-outside distribution (festivals, sport events etc)
3. Possibility to evaluate change of transport intensity / failure
frequency
4. Possibility to evaluate change of route’s
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Evaluate risk contribution by source

ACN production/storage (Large) Storage of Flammables

NH3 production/storage Loading-unloading rail tank wagons


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Evaluate change in transport capacity

Cat A transporten gereduceerd met factor 10


-2
1.0 x10

-3
1.0 x10 Ind. Value
FN curve selected scenarios
All scenarios ORIG
-4
1.0 x10
EV = 5.53e-05
NormValue = 7.14e-04
-5
1.0 x10
Frequency [1/yr]

Transport intensity liquefied 1.0 x10


-6

flammable gasses reduced with 1.0 x10


-7

factor 10 1.0 x10


-8

-9
1.0 x10

-10
1.0 x10
1 10 100 1,000 10,000
Number of fatalities
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Evaluation and conclusions

The SR maps have proven their value:

SR contribution map shows cause of SR area map shows size and level of
SR bottlenecks SR bottlenecks
Typical SR contribution map applications: Typical SR area map applications:
• Guiding emergency response planning • Guiding urban development planning
• Pinpointing area’s for redevelopment • Pinpointing safety problems to non-
/reallocation of population specialist (risk communication)
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Evaluation and conclusions

Looking from “point of receiver” appeals, but is not obligatory


Experience of “Experts” is still required to explain “red zones”
Spatial planners: which colour means a problem ?
Safety specialists: what is behind those colours ?
It is a visualization, not a criteria: traditional graphs also required
Visualization provides supplementary view, more insight
PR contours still provide the first step: where not to build ! (no
vulnerable objects inside the 10-6 contour)
BE CAREFULL when communicating with colours