Enquiry questions 4.7 THE DYNAMICS OF POPULATION CHANGE What are the components of population change?

Key ideas and concepts

Guidance and possible examples

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The concept of population as a system with inputs, stores and outputs. Role of migration in system. Natural change, migration balance and net change. Census data and measures of change – birth, death, fertility, migration rates. Role of census in national and regional planning.

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Population change – the essential dynamics to be linked to interaction of natural change and migration components in contrasting countries. Global overview, plus contrasts at a national/ continental scale of birth rates, death rates, fertility. Use of census work with Scamp CD. Sample areas to look at dynamics of change at small scale (eg ward) and regional scale.

How is population change measured and portrayed? How and why do rates of population change vary spatially and over time? 4.8 What are the global challenges posed by population change? What are the national challenges posed by population change?

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Portraying population density, distribution and change. Global spatial variations in key measures of population change – causal factors.

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Development of topological maps (global/continental). Use of choropleths/dot maps. Definition of density/distribution. Assessment of key factors linked to economic development such as standards of health, welfare, education, role of women etc in the demographic transition.

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The links between population change over time and development. World population growth and future projections. Population and resources – over-, under- and optimum (sustainable) population. Conflicting views of Malthus/Boserup. Limits to growth model.

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Demographic transition over time, examples from selected countries at different states of development. Idea of exponential trend of global population increase. Assessment of overall global equation of population and resources. Continental and national differentials. Role of technology in expanding resource base. Over- and underpopulation exemplified.

THE IMPLICATIONS OF POPULATION CHANGE

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Coping with population growth (providing housing, work and services) and loss (maintaining viable communities). Changing age and gender structures. Their implications for economic development and service provision.

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Assessment of issues in one rapidly expanding area and one area in decline to bring out contrasts (eg impact of AIDS in East Africa). Changing family structure (single parent/single person households). Economic impact of structure (eg dependency ratio). Gender imbalance (eg ‘little emperors’ in China). Implications of youthful and ageing societies for provision of leisure, health and welfare services and employment.

How do decision makers seek to manage population change?

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Controlling numbers – contrasting attitudes, strategies and incentives. Controlling movement within and across national boundaries – contrasting government policies.

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Assessment of two contrasting national policies. Assessment of impact of contrasting migration policies, or plans such as Indonesian transmigration, or quotas and incentives.

THE GLOBAL CHALLENGE OF MIGRATION

4.9 What are the causes of international migration? What are the impacts of international migration? What are the key issues posed by international migration?

Classification of migration by motive, duration. Analysis of decision making factors – voluntary or forced. Migration models – relevance of theories and models in understanding migration. Pressure on the environment and resources. Cultural and socio-economic benefits and costs.

A research study using a variety of sources and data. Basic classifications. Relation of migration in practice to theory. Major present day patterns of international migration –issues of global disparity. Relate briefly to historic flows at a global scale and for one continent (eg North America or Europe). To emphasise assessment of positives and negatives. Examples include transmission of diseases (eg flu to Inuit). Enrichment of multiculturalism in large cities. The world refugee problem and issues exemplified by one current displacement (eg Rwanda, Kosovo, East Timor).

Freedom of movement and civil liberties, refugees and ethnic cleansing.

The right to work; migrant workers and fluctuations in the global economy.

The key role of migrant workers and how it fluctuates (eg impacts of German re-unification or Gulf War or SE Asia crisis).