Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121 – 133 www.elsevier.
Climate change of the last 2000 years inferred from borehole temperatures: data from Hungary
L. Bodri *, P. Dovenyi ¨ ´
Research Group on Geophysics and Environmental Physics, Hungary Academy Science, c/o Geophysics Department, Eotvos University, ¨ ¨ ´ ´ ´ ´ Pazmany setany 1/c, Budapest 1117, Hungary Received 15 May 2003; accepted 14 October 2003
Abstract Ground surface temperature (GST) history, reflecting past climate conditions in Hungary, was evaluated by analysing the excursions left on the present-day temperature – depth distribution measured by precise temperature logging in 20 boreholes. These data were used to assess climatic changes over the last two millennia. We inverted the temperature – depth data using the algorithm by Bodri and Cermak [Global Planet. Change 11 (1995) 111]. Four main episodes can be distinguished: a warm period around 0 AD, extended cold conditions in the 6 – 16th centuries, a general warming culminated near 1850 and the cooling since then. The verification of the GST assessment was accomplished by independent data from historical sources and the GST reconstructions in surrounding Slovakia and Slovenia. The long cold conditions in the Middle Ages and the absence of the Little Climatic Optimum seem to be generic feature of the climate in Hungary. In their more recent parts, the obtained GST histories are consistent with the meteorological records in the area. D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Borehole logging; Underground temperature; Climate reconstruction; Hungary
1. Introduction The short-term (1– 1000 years) temperature changes are generally investigated with the help of the meteorological surface air temperature (SAT) records and documentary/archaeological sources. Because both sources have their individual limits (e.g. shortness of the existing SAT time series and the non-uniform space –time distribution of the documentary evidence of climatic change and their indirect character), the
* Corresponding author. Tel.: +361-381-2191; fax: +361-3812192. E-mail address: email@example.com (L. Bodri). 0921-8181/$ - see front matter D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2003.10.001
use of independent data to test and complete the past climate picture is indispensable. The ‘‘geothermal’’ data represent one of the additional sources of information about the Earth’s changing surface temperature. Due to the low thermal diffusivity, crustal rocks have a long thermal memory for temperature changes on the Earth’s surface. The significance of the underground temperatures for the climate reconstruction was recognised almost as soon as the temperature – depth measurements were performed in boreholes (Lane, 1923). However, systematic attempts of the ground surface temperature (GST) reconstructions began only recently. In the last two decades, numerous papers appeared reporting that temperature –depth records in drillholes may contain a certain climatic
Thus. Majority of these logs were measured for the hydrological resources and/or oil prospecting and are not suitable for climate reconstructions. Thus. In the present study.. are also negligible. 1956). ¨ ´ Geothermal data and model calculations have shown that this flow is normally very slow and perturbs insignificantly the conductive temperature field (Stegena. urban heat. Bodri and Cermak. 1983. The present day catalogue of the temperature data in Hungary contains over 4000 temperature logs collected by Dovenyi et al. Cermak. Horvath and Dovenyi. ¨ ´ ¨ ´ 1991). The study is completed by a comparison of the obtained results with the GST reconstructions from the neighbouring Slovakia and Slovenia. Alfo ¨ldi et al.
2. siltstones and clayey – marly layers (Dovenyi et al. Shen et al. This area is poorly covered by the traditional climatological data. Data The first measurements of the outflowing water temperature in Hungary were carried out by Zsigmondy V..) and applied to Hungarian data set ´ ´ (Dovenyi and Horvath. so-called. Rajver et al. 1). Margitsziget and Varosliget. Huang and Pollack. in 1919 in the borehole Varosliget (Budapest). which can be extracted by inverse methods (e. they may represent a useful tool for climatic reconstructions in areas less covered by traditional climatic investigations. sandstones. Information on ¨ ´ the thermal conductivity exists for the 12 of 20 boreholes. there were worked out a rather rigorous data ranking criteria (for example. the geothermal results could provide an important supplement to the sparse evidence on the climate change in Hungary. ¨ ´ ´ 1983. Upper Pannonian strata. Measurements under thermal equilibrium (the time interval between drilling and temperature measurements achieved 1– 2 years) were performed in only 61 of all the boreholes. 1991). Shen and Beck. etc. 1992. Table 3). GST history is assessed from 20 Hungarian boreholes. Chosen boreholes ¨ ´ are regularly distributed throughout the country (Fig. boreholes were drilled in generally sedimentary. and thus varying significantly in quality. In the selected borehole sites.. Other main nonclimatic causes of the nonlinearities in temperature – depth profiles. Horvath and Dovenyi. The accuracy of the measurements is estimated to be 10– 15% (Dovenyi et al. and the first measurements for heat flow density determinations began in the ´ 1950s (Boldiszar. 1992. Often the problem is that after drilling is completed. between 1866 and 1877 in the notable drillings Harkany. In ¨ ´
. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
signal. 1998). ¨ ´ (1983). 2002). P. only 20 from a heap of available profiles are suitable for climate reconstructions. temperatures measured under steady state conditions. 1985). The 20 to 50 core samples were available from each borehole (Dovenyi et al. thus. Bodri.. The first borehole temperature logging in Hungary was performed by Papp K. These rocks are characterized by high secondary permeability occurring because of ´ intensive fracturing and karstification (Erdely. For the classification of the existing temperature logs. However. the boreholes did not have enough time to achieve stable thermal conditions. 1988. historical sources and the long-term meteorological mean annual series. 1997. The selected boreholes were drilled in generally sedimentary strata. This amount is far not enough for the recovering of the detailed GST history. 1982... flow of water is driven by the hydraulic head differences generally associated with topographic changes and/or with the Mesozoic carbonates in the Pannonian basin. In these areas. a significant part of these temperature – depth profiles contains only two to four measured points.122
L. 1971.g. 1992. such as topography. Beck et al. a regional water flow system is related to the expellation of formation water from the pore spaces due to progressive burial and ´ compaction of rocks (Horvath and Dovenyi. This formation covers the most part of the country and represents the Pontian – Pliocene basin fill. As was mentioned above. 1997. All they are situated out of the main areas of advective heat disturbance in Hungary. Most of the borehole temperature –depth profiles were measured in the last decades of the 20th century at various geological settings by several institutions and logging centres with different techniques. which consists of a delta-plain sequence with frequent alternation of sands. As geothermal borehole measurements are generally available from many regions on all continents. 1991). 1995. 1985). subsurface heat production.. temperatures measured during
drill stem tests both in water and petroleum exploration wells. results of climatic reconstructions can provide also information about regional distribution of climatic changes.
6 F 0. Climate change is represented as a
Table 1 Summary of the geothermal data for 10 Hungarian boreholes that were suitable for GST inversion n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Borehole Artand-2 Fuzesgyarmat-2 Jaszbereny-1 Kurd-3 Mihaly-37 Pusztafoldvar-6 Recsk-8 Recsk-15 Szalatnak-4 Szirak-2 Depth interval (m) 10 – 1010 10 – 1260 10 – 1225 50 – 450 60 – 1570 10 – 1250 50 – 880 35 – 825 50 – 700 50 – 1585 N 11 14 14 10 24 14 10 10 11 25 Go (K/km) 37. This gives a possibility to make thermal conductivity estimates for boreholes where the lithology of Neogene strata is known.9 F 0. because of existing continuous well-logs.L.7 2.4 51.8 71. (1983). P. thermal conductivities were assigned their mean values (Tables 1 and 2).7 3.4 30.6 50.0 2.6 F 0. and the measurements began below 100-m depth. The locations of the boreholes studied for climate change reconstruction in Hungary. The rest 10 borehole temperature logs contained less than 10 measured points.5 F 5. An analysis of the thermal conductivity data measured on different rock samples in the Pannonian basin fill led to a good knowledge of the general trend of thermal conductivity change with ´ depth for different lithologies (Dovenyi and Horvath.
.7 2. Temperature logs and technical information of these boreholes are presented in Fig. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
Column ‘‘Borehole’’ indicates the site and the number of borehole according the catalogue by Dovenyi et al.8 F 1. thus. the lithology of the penetrated depth intervals was known in detail. Because thermal conductivity values exhibited only small variations about the mean. Reliable estimates of the GST history could be performed for 10 boreholes sampled with sufficient dense rate. 1.8 30.5 F 1.8 K (W/m K) 2.
boreholes without thermal conductivity measurements. 1995).2 F 0.7 2. 2 and Table 1.7 2.5 62.8 F 1. they do not contain information about climatic events at
least of the last 100 –200 years (Bodri and Cermak.0 2.0 2. and most importantly showed no systematic variation as a function of depth. Go is the temperature gradient and K is the thermal conductivity. ¨ ´ 1988). Bodri.3 F 0.7 38.0 2.9 76. These boreholes were used for a simpler climatic reconstruction as applied for the first time by Cermak (1971).2 F 3.2 49. N is the number of ¨ ´ measured points. Column ‘‘Depth interval’’ represents the interval of depths where the temperature measurements were performed.
Unknown parameters of climatic change DT and t* can be estimated by the
least-squares inversion technique.5 MJ/m3 K. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
L. and DT>0 implies warming. 1 – 10: identification numbers in Table 1. 2. temperature variation T takes the simple form: ! z T ðz. Negative DT means cooling in comparison with the previous temperature. Inversion technique Temperature changes at the Earth’s surface diffuse into the subsurface by heat conduction and manifest themselves as a perturbations to the otherwise quasisteady state background temperature field. The Hungarian temperature – depth profiles used for the GST reconstructions. To and Go are the parameters of the steady-state temperature field (see below). In this case. Symbols show the individual temperature measurements.
3. 2 kðt À t*Þ where z is depth. Bodri. Inset shows the upper parts of the temperature logs. Depth and
. P. t is time. tÞ ¼ To þ Go z þ DTerfc pﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃﬃ . k is the thermal diffusivity. Thermal diffusivity was estimated from the measured conductivity and assumed standard value of the volumetric specific heat of 2.
simple instantaneous temperature change of DT from the previous To to T* temperature (DT = T*À To) at the time t*. Technical information of these 10 boreholes and estimated parameters of the climate change are presented in Table 2.
we used the generalised least-squares inversion technique (Bodri and Cermak.1 3. only signals of long wavelength temperature variations at the Earth’s surface are preserved. Reconstructed temperature variations become damped towards the past due to progressively increasing smoothing character of the inversion method.9 22. The optimal choice of the cut-off value does
. Changes which occurred 200 years ago can only be resolved by a 50-year interval of the same reliability. This method was tested on numerous synthetic and measured temperature logs. whereas changes that occurred 1000 years ago have penetrated to 250 –300 m. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´ Table 2 Summary of the geothermal data for 10 Hungarian boreholes used for an instantaneous temperature change climatic reconstruction Borehole Kovagotottos-2154 Kovagotottos-3175 Kovagotottos-4242 Kovagotottos-4294 Kovagotottos-4508 Kovagotottos-5065 Val-3 Nagylengyel-60 Nagylengyel-75 Nagylengyel-100 Depth interval (m) 100 – 810 100 – 890 100 – 780 120 – 920 120 – 720 100 – 800 25 – 900 50 – 2025 500 – 2150 500 – 2300 N 8 8 8 9 7 8 7 8 9 7 Go (K/km) 40. It is based on the theory of heat conduction in a layered.1 3.9 48. laterally homogeneous medium.8 À 3.2 F 0.6 À 1. In order to reconstruct past climate changes.7 F 2. distribution of thermal conductivity measurements.9 F 1. It depends on the shape of the surface temperature history. 1995) which minimises both the sum of the squares of deviations of the measured record from the theoretical model and the sum of the squares of the estimated parameters.85 DT (K) À 2.1 F 1. which may be rather severe restriction in case of a complex stratigraphy and inadequate thermal conductivity coverage (Shen et al.6 F 0.3 40.1 2.4 2.3 40.1 F 0.1 À 1. Warming or cooling signals can be amplified or attenuated through the choice of the singular cut-off value which restricts the resolution but improves the stability of the solution.L. For the diffusivity of 10À 6 m2/s.2 39.9 F 1. and is also a complex function of many borehole specific parameters. When representing the results graphically. Other columns are the same as in Table 1. and then draw a smoothed curve through these points. P.2 F 1.5 F 1. Bodri. the reliability of the determination of the GST change is about 10 –15% for a change which occurred 50 years ago. we ascribe the obtained temperature values to the middle points of the corresponding time intervals.5 45.8 1..4 À 2. and should be established for each borehole individually by means of the resolution matrix (for details.85 1. and by a 200-year interval for a change which occurred 800 years ago (see also numerical experiments by Beck et al. therefore. the high frequency components are diffused out with time. 1992). Temporal resolution of the borehole GST reconstructions decreases into the past.
time of the climatic change are linked nonlinearly by thermal diffusivity. etc. GST history can be recovered from the subsurface temperature – depth profiles by inverse techniques.4 1. Discretization of time depends on many site-specific factors. see Bodri and Cermak.1 F 0. 1995). Because of the low thermal diffusivity of crustal rocks.2 F 1.3 F 1.1 3. 1992). Boreholes of several hundred meters depth may therefore contain a response of the Earth to the surface ground temperature changes over the last 1– 2 millennia. temperature changes that occurred 100 years ago have penetrated to only 80 m.7 À 1..7 K (W/m K) 3.0
t* (years BP) 450 F 130 670 F 190 530 F 90 550 F 110 370 F 140 500 F 130 600 F 150 2130 F 490 2590 F 780 2850 F 580
DT is the temperature change at the time t *. The inverse method used in present study is described by Bodri and Cermak (1995.8 46. The thermal properties of the medium are regarded as known quantities. The mean values of temperature in the individual time
intervals are unknown parameters.1 3.0 F 1.5 49.0 F 1. The surface temperature history is approximated by a series of individual intervals of constant temperature. The experiments with synthetically generated temperature logs randomly perturbed by noise with Gaussian distribution can reveal the upper limits of the resolution.4 F 1.9 1. According to Bodri and Cermak (1995).85 1.5 À 2.4 F 1.5 F 1.5 F 1.6 33.0 F 0. 1997). their uncertainties are not taken into account. such as accuracy and vertical spacing of the temperature measurements.7 F 0.1 3.
in comparison with the usual.
4. the relatively coarse sampling (depth step was as a rule 50 – 100 m. 3. isotropic rock strata having no internal heat sources. 3. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
a deal between the variance of the estimated GST and the resolution.126
L. The parameters of the steady-state temperature field.
. and TM is the measured temperature. however. respectively. where z is depth. were calculated from the lowermost parts of the measured temperature logs by the standard linear regression technique. Thick line represents mean value of eight boreholes except of the Recsk-8 and Recsk-15. while the amplitude of climatic changes that occurred 800– 1000 years before present may be smoothed down to approx. P. presented in Tables 1 and 2. However. the GST histories could be reconstructed for the last two millennia. that the warming trend cannot be transformed into a cooling trend or vice versa through the choice of the cutoff value. It should be mentioned. To investigate temperature perturbations in the measured profiles that might have been caused by climate change. For a homogeneous. Bodri. To and Go are the quasi-steady-state ground surface temperature and temperature gradient. The transient component is assumed to be caused by time variations of the ground surface temperature. in geothermal logging. 5– 10 m or even finer sampling interval) permitted us to resolve only two to three
Fig. 50% of its initial value. which represents transient departure from the steady-state conditions. Because of significant depth of the measured temperature logs. we used the reduced temperature TR. defined
as TR(z) = TM(z) À TS(z). The bulk of the observed temperatures represents a quasi-steady state geothermal field. Reconstructed GST histories for 10 boreholes presented in Table 1. the steady-state temperature TS increases linearly with depth as TS = To + Goz. Numerous trial runs with synthetic examples have shown that the reconstructed GSTs agree almost perfectly with the past conditions in the recent 200 – 300 years. the obtained GST histories are shown in Fig. Strategy for optimal choice of the cut-off values is described by Bodri and Cermak (1995). GST reconstruction in Hungary Ten temperature logs presented in Table 1 were inverted individually.
for 1– 2-km-deep boreholes with finer sampling of 5– 10 m generally four to six climatic events could be resolved within the last 2000 years time interval. or very similar. Because the temperature logging was performed more than 20 years ago. climate changes and that noise is probably introduced by the temperature measurements and the errors caused by the insufficient representation of the conductivity. two to three of the resolved events were concentrated in the interval between approx. However. 18. The main episodes are a cooling between 1800 and 1900 AD and general warming since then. the range of temperature excursions is near 3 K. 4 shows the GST histories calculated for two Slovakian boreholes Gondovo (48.66jE) and Zlatno (48. The range of the GST changes obtained for different boreholes is very similar. the Cserhat Mts. These GST histories appear to be generally coherent with the GST trends obtained for the Recsk boreholes. that the course sampling has impact generally on the recent segments of the GST history. The differences between GST histories from the boreholes Recsk and closely spaced borehole Szirak could be explained by the influence of the mountain climate. The general course of the climatic excursions in Hungary can be traced on the curve representing the
Fig. The coincidence of the shape of the obtained GST histories is rather good except of the two closely spaced boreholes at Recsk site.
. Bodri. The two boreholes Recsk are situated within the Carpathian Mts. however. As was shown by Bodri and Cermak (1997). 1999).14 K. since both holes at Recsk gave very coherent GST histories. Fig. Temperature oscillations may vary within the range of 1.41jN. it is now impossible to examine the conditions existing in the close vicinity of the Recsk boreholes. Temperature logs for boreholes Gondovo (PKS-1) and Zlatno (R-9) and the corresponding reconstructed GST histories compared with the GST reconstructions from the boreholes at Recsk.1 K with the mean value of 2. 1800 AD and the present.28jN. P. their inconsistency with
other GST curves is not simply an artefact of inversion and probably reflects definite local conditions. The site of borehole Szirak belongs to the southern lowland of other mountain range of Carpathians. It should be mentioned. 4. at the northern border of the Matra mountain range. However.8 – 3. which implies that all borehole sites were subjected to the same.22 F 1. belonging to Carpathian system.L. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
main climatic episodes that had the greatest impact on the temperature log in a given environment. This conclusion can be confirmed by the comparison of the climatic trends reconstructed from the Recsk temperature –depth profiles with the GST reconstructions for the neighbouring boreholes. 18.78jE) located at some 100 – 120-km distance NW of Recsk at sites also belonging to the different ranges of the Carpathian system (Bodri and Cermak.
Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
arithmetic mean of the eight GST histories (Fig. However. fig.K. fossil trees are found above the present tree line from the times 100 to 500 AD). in the years 1300 –1600 AD. Inversion was performed with the functional space inversion method by Shen and Beck (1992). the end of which is visible also at the GST histories in Fig. 0. which is defined in comparison with the Atlantic period (6000 – 3000 BC). the further course of climatic history in Hungary seems to represent a single durable cold period which has continued from 6 –7th to 15 –16th centuries. An analysis by Crowley (2000) indicated. Significant depth of the measured temperature logs at Nagylengyel site. 1976. followed by a long period of cooling from the 9th to the 16th centuries and culminated between 1300 – 1500 AD. which showed 1 – 3 K cooling 400 –700 years BP. Therefore.02 –0. particularly after 100 BC. thus. The first of the foregoing periods is clearly visible in our GST reconstructions. 16. with climax occurring between years 1150 and 1300 AD. This warm period can be associated with the so-called secondary Optimum.2 K) have shown that the change from the previous warm to the cold conditions occurred at the Ljutomer site after approx. Williams and Wigley. The cold ¨ period with its climax between the 8th and 10th centuries is documented by the general paleoclimatic trend in Europe reconstructed by Williams and Wigley (1983) by using a variety of proxy sources. Results (Fig. reconstruction of pre-industrial climate relies principally on traditional climate proxy records and borehole temperature inversion. Renner. 0.d. The warming period approx. as well as in the reconstructions by Huang and Pollack (1997). leading to a period of warmth.0 W/m.
5. Data characterize both periods as quite durable (e. 7a. who examined a large archive of continental heat flow measurements for evidence of late Quaternary temperature variations. The range of climatic excursions achieved F 2 K. and is supported also by the climate change parameters estimated for the Nagylengyel site. is reported by Lamb (1977). by dendroclimatological records (maximum density of late wood in the tree rings. The results revealed warmer conditions before 500 AD. Subsequent cooling is also confirmed by the results of the estimations of the step change in climate for boreholes Kovagotottos and Val (Table 2). P. there was a gradual recovery of warmth in Europe over approx. Bodri. representing the warmest postglacial times. According to Lamb (1977) and Flohn and Fantechi (1984). 1000 years after 600 BC.19jE). permitted to recognise these remote warming events. situated close to the SW Hungarian border (46. 3). according to studies by Bradley (1994). According to Lamb (1977). that this Optimum was less distinct and more moderate in amplitude as compared to the mid-20th-century warm period.
. The warmer times culminating near 300 – 400 AD are documented.g. The following warm period. 1982). sometimes called ‘‘Little Climatic Optimum’’.g. The late 16th and 17th centuries extreme condition called ‘‘Little Ice Age’’ is the period of cold climate.1– 1. curve depicted with a priori s. Significant depth of borehole permitted to reconstruct GST course for the time far before 1000 AD. that exceeded 2 km. Discussion and conclusions The instrumental temperature records are typically available for no more than the past 150 years. e. however. radiocarbon dates of fossil trees found above the present tree line) from Switzerland (Rothlisberger. 1983). 3.128
L. This paleoclimatic trend is confirmed by the results of the GST reconstructions by (Rajver et al. However. Slovenia. pronounced warming with the maximum in the second half of the 19th century and cooling since then. Generally. Flohn and Fantechi (1984). four main climatic episodes for the period since the Early Middle Ages to the end of the 19th century could be recognised in Europe. All boreholes revealed rather synchronic warming occurred 2000– 3000 years BP.51jN. (1998. 2000 years ago is also confirmed by the values of DT estimated in three boreholes at Nagylengyel (Table 2). the maximum development of the Little Ice Age also agrees with the historical maximum advance of the Alpine glaciers (1600 – 1660 AD) or with the maximum tree-ring density in Switzerland and Austria (1575 –1650 AD. The Medieval temperature peaks were not synchronous in different records. This
period was also revealed in the most reliable global temperature reconstruction by Huang and Pollack (1997). there exist significant differences in details of principal events appearing in the reconstructions of temperature histories indicating spatial/temporal inhomogeneities. 7a) for the almost 2000-mdeep temperature profile of the borehole Ljutomer (Lj1).
2001. while the row ‘‘total’’ illustrates the part of the cold and warm notes in the total volume of the existing sources. are almost entirely based on the written historical sources. Pfister et al. On the Northern Hemisphere scale.g. and thus.Suleiman Turkish Emperor came near to occupy Vienna and only extremely cold winter drove his army away’’. 1999).. Hungarian data are also stored in the EUROCLIMHIST database (Pfister et al. because of their rather subjective character and the difficulties arising in the way to extract exact climatic information from such notes.g. . 2001). that could help to verify our GST reconstruction. 1000 years seem to be a generic feature of the climate in the area under investigation. like e. the winter of 1528/29—‘‘. the scope of the warming in Medieval times still represents the question under debate (Mann and Bradley. P. that in principle also can contain information about climatic conditions were not taken into account. 1520 – 1566). droughts. such as famine.g. the years 1043/44-‘‘The winter was so severe in Hungary. etc. Specific feature of Hungarian data is that in the most of the documents climatic events were noted in conjunction with the military ´ campaigns. the year 1275—‘‘Summer was so cold that neither cereals nor fruit and grape did not grow ripe’’). Bradley et al.. Broecker. Time series of paleotemperatures reconstructed by Mann and Bradley (1999) with the use of various proxy indices have shown that even conditions of the 11– 12th centuries were warmer in comparison with the subsequent cooling. The natural
disasters. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
500 AD. While there is no doubt that the Little Ice Age and the subsequent warming were probably global in extent. . 1970). famous chronicle by Istvanfi ´ Miklos (Hungarian statesman and historian. hint to its preference climatic state. where written documents describing climate. Only those notes were calculated in the rows ‘‘cold’’ and ‘‘warm’’ that are directly connected with temperatures and embrace relatively long periods (e. which may hint the impact of the centuryscale changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation activity on the climate variability. cold. The cold conditions dispersed over approx. etc. in Italy vast amount of data exists back over the last 2500 years.L. the Hungarian database is more modest. The existing long-term paleoclimate reconstructions in the area under investigation. 1999.. warm.g. the years 1275/76— ‘‘Very severe. they were far not so warm as the post-industrial warming. long and snowy winter’’). raining. Data on harvests were taken into account only if it was mentioned together with the climatic conditions (e.. the Medieval warmth appears to be mainly restricted to areas neighbouring and in the North Atlantic. All available historical sources ´ are included in the compilation by Rethly (1962. In the row ‘‘total’’ of this table. As seen in Table 3. The numbers in the rows ‘‘cold’’ and ‘‘warm’’ in Table 3 can help to estimate the proportion of cold against warm periods in given century. only three notes from the 10th century).). The number of climatic notes in the documents began to increase only from
Table 3 Summary of historical notes of climatic character in Hungary (the explanations of the terms ‘‘Total’’. ‘‘Cold’’ and ‘‘Warm’’ are given in the text) Century II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII XIV XV XVI Total 4 – 3 3 1 2 1 – 3 24 14 44 26 160 258 Cold 2 – – 2 1 1 – – 1 13 4 16 8 45 53 Warm 1 – – – – – 1 – – 3 4 12 6 51 68
.g. we took into account only those notes that directly refer to climate conditions (e. Table 3 summarises the number of existing references on climatic conditions in Hungary. that the cattle had frozen to death in the cowsheds’’. epidemics. According to these authors. e.g. only a few data exists from each century between 0 and 1000 AD (e. Bodri. these authors interpret the period around 800 –1200 AD as the part of the long-term cooling trend prior to the industrialisation. 1999).g. In comparison with the western European countries. and the cold conditions prevailed up to 14– 15th centuries with the general return to warm conditions after that time. meteorological events and/or natural disasters can be found everywhere (e. 1535 – 1615) and in the diary by Suleiman the Magnificent (Ottoman Sultan.
5 jC. see also www. 15– 20jE (data by Jones et al. their amount was not significantly behind the ‘‘warm’’ notes. this cold period was shorter and not as cold as the previous Little Ice Age. and significant part of them refers to exceptionally extreme conditions. As for the Lj-1. The ‘‘cold’’ notes prevail above the ‘‘warm’’ entries up to the 14th century. Univ. However. Provisional returns of cold conditions had strong economic and social impact in Hungary in 16th century.. However. because signal in the T – z data of some of the mentioned boreholes could contain a possible noise and/or be corrupted as a result of larger contrast in thermal conductivity. the 15th century. (1998) revealed
cold conditions prevailing before 1700 –1800 AD and subsequent warming with the maxima occurred for different boreholes between the years 1850 and 1975. Fig. significant amount of data exists only since approx.uk. Resulting climatic temperatures on the yearly scale of averaging show moderately cool conditions from the early 16th century to the late 18th century. who combined historical climate information from the various documentary sources. The weather in the first half of the 19th century turned somewhat milder. 1995). The warm episode around 1850 AD and the subsequent cooling are also visible at the meteorological surface air temperature (SAT) record from Budapest (data exist since the year 1780. the prevailing temperatures for the 19th century were close to 11– 11. Hansen and Lebedeff (1987) recognised the period between 1940 and 1970 as a cooling by 0. UK) temperature anomalies calculated as the deviations from 1961 to 1990 base period at the 5 Â 5j grid box basis. like cited above.
. The underground response to a 5 – 10-year-long climate cycle of about 1 K could not penetrate deeper than 50 –70 m (Bodri and Cermak. This record begins at the year 1856 and represents (constructed at the Climatic Research Unit.ac. borehole inversion was performed by the functional space inversion method and embraced period from 1500 AD to the present.2jE). Since 1540 – 1550 AD. The notes on the temperature conditions generally form 50 – 70% of all climatic documentary sources. Bodri. These data have been calibrated and verified with the existing SAT instrumental records.5 K for whole Central Europe. This hints to the recurrent occurrence of extreme conditions before the 16th century in comparison with the unimportant periods that did not deserve to be mentioned in the documents.of East Anglia. 3). the variations observed in the reconstructed GST histories since 19th century to the present are in good agreement with the meteorological records. Norwich. already 24 notes in the 11th century). Detailed reconstruction of the temperature trends in Hungary from the 16th century to the present was performed by Racz (1999).3 – 0. Both records contain warming episodes around 1800– 1850 and the cooling culminated near 1900 AD When examining SAT records.cru. these GST inversions should be used with the some caution. However. 14. 6). Landsteiner (1999) describes the wine production crisis in Lower Austria and Western Hungary in the late 16th century caused by the often occurrence of cold winters and frosts late in spring. and even in the 15– 16th centuries.6 –16.7jN. a few notes can be found for each year. revealed by our GST reconstructions. (1998) for a suite of boreholes from the north-eastern part of Slovenia (45. which probably was not completely compensated in the inversion. The GST histories from five of the nine investigated boreholes have shown also recent cooling occurred in the last decades of the 20th century. According to Ghil and Vautard (1991).5 jC. Fig. Thus. the whole Northern Hemisphere was experienced a temperature decrease between 1950 and the mid-1970s. 5). The absence of the more recent details than those dated back to the 1950– 1970 in the inverted GSTs can be explained by the fact that the most of the temperature logs begin below 40– 60-m depth.130
L. The course of the last 500-year climatic history in Hungary is to the some degree confirmed also by the GST reconstructions by Rajver et al.g. While the mean temperature in the 16 –18th centuries slightly oscillated around the mean of 10. Results by Rajver et al. General warming began in the early 20th century. P. 1999. The times since the beginning of the 16th century represent the rapid recovery from the previous cold conditions to the warmer climate (Fig. This warming culminated near 1850 AD in our GST histories and then has changed by the subsequent cooling. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
the beginning of the last millennium (e. and at the SAT anomalies record averaged over the grid box 45 –50jN.uea. Data in Table 3 generally confirm the long duration of the cold climate in Hungary and return to warm conditions in the 15– 16th centuries.5 – 46.
P. 6. Meteorological monthly temperature anomalies averaged over the grid box 45 – 50jN.
Fig. Thick line represents their 10-year running mean.L. 15 – 20jE. Meteorological Service of Hungary. Bodri. Dovenyi / Global and Planetary Change 41 (2004) 121–133 ¨ ´
Fig. Annual mean temperatures at the Budapest (KMI) station and their 10-year running mean (data from the Year Books of the Central Institute of Meteorology. Budapest). 5.
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