Computation Methods for Estimating Wind Local Effects as part of Wind Risk Assessment

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Computation Methods for Estimating Wind Local Effects as part of Wind Risk Assessment

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Local Effects as Part of Wind Risk Assessment

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Civil Aviation Safety Authority Geoscience Australia

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All content following this page was uploaded by Xun Guo Lin on 02 September 2014.

Computational Methods for Estimating Wind Local Effects as

Part of Wind Risk Assessment

1)

CSIRO Mathematical and Information Sciences, Private Bag 10, Clayton South,

VIC 3169, Australia, E-mail: xunguo.lin@csiro.au

2)

Geoscience Australia, GPO Box 378, ACT 2601, Australia,

E-mail: krishna.nadimpalli@ga.gov.au

ABSTRACT

Wind risk assessment is to estimate the possible building damage due to severe winds.

Local terrain, topographic and shielding conditions can have major effects on local wind speeds.

Australian Wind Loading Standards have given mathematical formulae to estimate these local

wind effects, called multipliers. In order to apply these formulae on a large area such as a

metropolitan city, effective and efficient computational methods have to be developed. This

paper describes novel computational methods developed to estimate local wind multipliers. It

uses satellite remote sensing techniques, geographical information systems (GIS) and image

analysis softwares to effectively estimate surface roughness, terrain and shielding multipliers on

a very fine grid (25m) in eight cardinal wind directions. The digital elevation data provide

detailed local topographic characteristics. Efficient computational algorithms have been

developed to calculate the topographic wind multipliers in eight wind directions on each grid.

These multipliers will be used in the risk assessment of severe winds. A case study of

metropolitan Perth is also given.

The basic quantitative method of hazard (natural or man-made) loss assessment includes

hazard modelling, element at risk, damage modelling, and cost modelling. See the diagram in

Fig. 1. The hazard modelling in our case is the modelling of extreme return wind speeds. The

element at risk is where and what the buildings are and possibly how many residents live within

these buildings. The damage modelling in our case is to develop the building vulnerability with

respect to wind speeds, that is, damage percentages at different speeds. The economic loss

modelling is to estimate direct (and maybe indirect) and tangible (and maybe intangible) losses,

for example, rebuild/repair cost per square-metre for different types of buildings. Finally, the

loss (cost) is aggregated from each building to a whole city or a region to give the total loss

(cost) with respect to a particular wind speed. This type of quantitative modelling is also called

consequence modelling.

In our case, because the damage to buildings is caused by extreme winds, it can be

modelled effectively by statistical modelling techniques. Hence the element of wind hazard

modelling can be further decomposed into several elements by using a statistical approach as

shown in Fig. 2. It includes wind data acquisition; local wind effect calculation; adjustment of

wind speed data to standard condition of 10m height in open terrain; extreme value distribution

fitting; return period speeds estimation, and finally return speeds interpolation to generate wind

hazard maps. The rest of this paper will describe the element of local wind effect calculation.

Developments of other elements can be found in Lin (2004), Lin and Courtney (2004) and Lin

(2005).

Modelling at Risk Modelling Loss Modelling $

Fig. 1. Quantitative methodology of hazard loss assessment

Wind data

acquisition &

pre-processing

Return period

Wind data Distribution

wind speeds

adjustment fitting

Local wind effect estimation

calculation

•Terrain/height Return speeds

•Shielding interpolation

•Hill-shape

Hazard Maps

The impact of severe wind varies considerably between structures at various locations,

because of the geographic terrain, the height of the structures concerned, the surrounding

structures and topographic features. These site wind exposure and speed modifications can be

numerically described by so-called wind multipliers. These multipliers give quantitative

measures of local wind conditions relative to the regional wind speed (defined as open terrain at

10m height) at each location. There are three wind multipliers, named terrain/height multiplier

(Mz), shielding multiplier (Ms) and topographic (also called hill-shape) multiplier (Mh). The

relationship between the regional wind speed (VR) and the local (site) wind speed (Vsite) and the

local wind multipliers is

Vsite VR M z M s M h (1)

Formulas to estimate these wind multipliers for a given location are given in AS/NZS

1170.2 (2002) (referred as the Standard in this paper). However, efficient and effective

computational methods to estimate these wind multipliers across a larger area with high

resolution need to be developed. Satellite remote sensing techniques, geographic information

systems (GIS), image analysis software and a digital elevation dataset have been used to apply

these formulas to calculate the three wind multipliers. The proposed techniques will be

demonstrated in a case study in metropolitan Perth as part of wind risk assessment.

Australian Wind Standard provides formulas to calculate the three local wind multipliers in

document AS/NZS 1170.2 (2002). The rest of this section will give a brief description on how

to estimate each of these multipliers.

The terrain/height multiplier (Mz) is dependent on the terrain roughness as well as the

height of a building/structure concerned. There are four terrain categories defined in the

Standard:

Category 1 í exposed open terrain with few or no obstructions including smooth water or

flat snow surfaces;

Category 2 í rough water surfaces, uncut grassland, isolated trees from 1.5m to 10m;

Category 3 í numerous closely spaced obstructions 3m to 5m high such as suburban

housing;

Category 4 í numerous large, high (10m to 30m) and closely spaced obstructions such as

large city centres and well-developed industrial complexes.

Each category has a defined terrain roughness length. There are some classes of terrain,

such as forests, sitting in between two categories and their roughness lengths are also given in

AS/NZS 1170.2 Supp 1 (2002).

Table 1 gives Mz values in each terrain category for various building/structure heights up to

500 m for regions A1 to A7 and B specified in the Standard, which include most Australian

capital cities except Darwin.

When considering a wind approaching direction across ground with changes in terrain

categories, it is necessary to take an averaging process with a formula given in the Standard.

The distance over which to average is also given which is dependent on the building/structure

height concerned.

The shielding wind multiplier (Ms) has a value between 0.7 and 1 according to the

Standard. A value of 0.85 is typically used for design of Australian suburban housing. If the

ground gradient upwind is greater than 0.2 (20% or 11.31o), then the effect of shielding is not

applicable or there is no shielding effect, so it has the value of 1 for this wind direction at the

location. When the ground slope is less than 0.2, Ms can be estimated by the Standard using

information of buildings such as heights and breadths within a 45o upwind sector of radius 20

times the building height, referred to as the shielding zone in this paper.

Table 1. Mz for different building heights, from Table 4.1 (A) in AS/NZS 1170.2 (2002)

m Category 1 Category 2 Category 3 Category 4

3 0.99 0.91 0.83 0.75

… … … … …

10 1.12 1.00 0.83 0.75

… … … … …

50 1.25 1.18 1.07 0.90

… … … … …

500 1.38 1.37 1.35 1.31

Standing on an uphill slope will normally feel windy comparing to standing in a flat area.

This is called the topographic (or hill-shape) wind effect. In wind engineering, it is named the

topographic (or hill-shape) multiplier Mh. It can be estimated using the following formula from

the Standard:

°

° 1.0 for H /( 2 Lu ) 0.05

°° § H ·§ x ·

Mh ®1 ¨¨ ¸¸¨1 ¸ for 0.05 d H /( 2 Lu ) 0.45 or within the local topo zone when H /( 2 Lu ) ! 0.45

3. 5 z L ¨ L ¸

° © 1 ¹© 2 ¹

° § x ·

° 1 0.71¨1 - ¸ for H /( 2 Lu ) ! 0.45 and within the separation zone

°¯ ¨ L ¸

© 2 ¹ (2)

where

H vertical distance from base to crest

x horizontal distance upwind or downwind from structure to crest

z height of the structure above the local ground level

Lu horizontal distance from crest to 1/2 H below crest

L1 the greater of 0.36 Lu and 0.4 H

L2 local topographic zone, to be 4*L1 for upwind, and for downwind is also 4*L1 for

the cases of ridges or 10*L1 for escarpments.

A “separation zone” starts at the crest with the size of H/4. It is only defined for the case of

slopes greater than 0.45.

Eq.(2) specifies that slopes below 0.05 are assigned a Mh of 1 and slopes equal and greater

than 0.45 are assigned a maximum Mh of 1.71 within the local topographic zone. For the slopes

between 0.05 (2.9o) and 0.45 (24.2o), Table 2 gives Mh values for some different slopes.

It can be seen that to calculate these multipliers for a large region there will be a large

amount of tedious computations involved requiring details of terrain and building information

which may not be available on a large scale. Hence, effective and efficient computing

techniques will be necessary which will be described in the next section.

Table 2. Hill-shape multiplier at crest (|x| = 0) when z = 0, from Table 4.4 of AS/NZS 1170.2 (2002)

< 0.05 < 2.9 1.0

0.05 2.9 1.08

0.10 5.7 1.16

0.20 11.3 1.32

0.30 16.7 1.48

t 0.45 t 24.2 1.71

To calculate Mz and Ms, Remote Sensing techniques were used effectively to extract

necessary terrain details automatically. Next, GIS techniques were used to efficiently

manipulate these information to estimate Mz and Ms. Digital elevation data provided grid

heights which were used to calculate the ground slopes on grid in 8 cardinal wind directions.

Scientific computing software allowing matrix operations was used to calculate Mh efficiently.

An overview of the methodology to develop the three multipliers for 8 cardinal wind directions

is shown in Fig. 3.

The terrain classification mapping is to identify terrain categories automatically. This was

done using satellite remote sensing techniques for the region. A list of terrain features within

the region such as grassland, forests and suburbs was decided according to four terrain

categories. Next, digital samples of these terrain features in terms of their spectral reflectance

were identified and then they were used to classify the region using maximum likelihood

algorithms. Then, an image software (for example, ERDAS Imagine) was used to match up

these features automatically over the whole region. Note that this approach has some

limitations, for example, concrete building roofs and airport runways have similar reflectance so

they were classified as the same class. Therefore, critical features such as runways and city

buildings were mapped separately and overlayed.

Fig. 3. Diagram of methodology used in estimation of local wind modification multipliers

Averaging method

When there are different terrain classifications upwind of a structure of primary interest, the

method of averaging described in the Standard has been applied. To achieve this in a GIS

environment, a moving window/kernel was established that contains an array of weighting

factors (Lillesand and Kiefer, 1994). The kernel was moved throughout the original image, and

the value at the centre of the kernel in output image was obtained by averaging all the pixels

considered for averaging. Eight kernels were created for 8 cardinal wind directions to average

the terrain multiplier values.

The terrain map interpreted using satellite remote sensing was reclassified into the

terrain/height multiplier. Then the wind directional kernels were applied to estimate the terrain

multiplier for all 8 cardinal wind directions. If we know the exact location of each building and

its height, then the averaging and hence the Mz can be calculated. However, for a large area

such as a metropolitan city, this condition might not be satisfied. Hence, nominated building

heights were specified with examples given in the Case Study later.

The shielding multiplier (Ms) of a structure depends on the number of buildings upwind in

a shielding zone with at least the same height as the structure concerned. Again, since detailed

information of each building, such as its height, width and orientation, may not be available for

a large area, some assumptions have been made. Particularly, nominal values of Mz for different

housing classifications have been assumed which were within the range given by the Standard.

These values have been verified using limited available building details (from building surveys)

or by simulation. Then, the initial Mz were calculated based on the terrain classification map

using the nominated multiplier value for each housing type such as suburb and city. Finally, an

averaging process was undertaken for each wind direction. The shape of the averaging area was

the same as the shielding zone and its radius compatible to the housing type (that is, 20 times the

nominated height of the housing type).

The topographic wind multiplier Mh was calculated by applying Eq.(2) using grid elevation

data. However, the calculation could not be based on adjacent grid elevation, rather it has to be

based on adjacent hills and valleys. A non-recursive algorithm has been developed to pair each

pair of valley and hill in order to calculate the ground slope. Extra care has to be taken when

two or more hills or valleys are close together. The developed algorithm was applied in each

direction at a time, with each direction represents a row or a column or a diagonal of the

elevation matrix. An effective and efficient method has been developed to deal with the 8

cardinal wind directions by transposing, flipping and rotating the elevation matrix.

Single directional approach In a single directional approach, all the hills and valleys were

identified and paired with each other in the order of valley-hill, valley-hill, and so on. Next, the

ground slope was calculated for each pair of valley-hill and then this hill and the next valley.

After that, the length of the local topographic zone (L2) was determined and the grid values of

Mh were calculated around this hill. The algorithm then processed the next pair of valley-hill.

When multiple valleys and hills were close by, their local topographic zones might be

overlapping. So the final Mh was the maximum of all multipliers from each overlapping zone.

Rotating data method A rotating data method was developed to use the single directional

approach to achieve multi-directional computation by transposing, flipping or rotating the

dataset. In particular, the method of 45o matrix rotation has been developed to calculate the Mh

for 4 diagonal winds, that is, northeast to/from southwest and northwest to/from southeast. The

method of 45o rotating will be described next.

Assume we have a 4 by 4 matrix representing an elevation grid with the wind direction

indicated by arrows from southwest to northeast.

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16

The original matrix can be augmented diagonally to make it having the same number of

rows elements on each diagonal ‘column’, see below. Note that, the value of L will be taken as

the minimum of the grid value and H as the maximum. Hence this augmentation will not

introduce extra valley-hill pairs.

1 2 3 4 L L L

H 5 6 7 8 L L

H H 9 10 11 12 L

H H H 13 14 15 16

Now, this augmented matrix is 4 by 7 and can be easily rearranged to the following normal

form with its calculation direction given by arrows.

1 2 3 4 L L L

H 5 6 7 8 L L

H H 9 10 11 12 L

H H H 13 14 15 16

grid size for the augmented matrix has been changed to S¥2 from the original S.

The other diagonal direction winds can be dealt with by similar methods.

CASE STUDY

Background

Extreme wind is one of the major natural hazards experienced in Perth. These extreme

winds are generally produced by cold fronts and not by cyclones (see, for example, Lin and

Courtney, 2004) or thunderstorms related downbursts. The wind study area covers Perth City

and its surroundings including Rottnest Island. The geographic extent of the area in the

Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinate system lies between 354500 to 416475

longitude and 6437995 to 6498970 latitude, covering an area of about 3767 square km. See the

red box at the top left in Fig. 4.

In order to estimate the terrain/height multiplier and the shielding multiplier, a terrain

classification map described earlier needed to be developed. Terrain classes from AS/NZS

1170.2 Supp 1 (2002) were used to classify the Perth metropolitan area. The following classes

were relevant to our wind hazard assessment.

x City buildings

x Forests

x Centres of small towns and industrial area

x Suburban and wooded country

x Long grass with few trees

x Air fields and uncut grass

x Water

x Sandy beaches

x Cut grass

Fig. 5. LANDSAT satellite database of Bands 432 of metropolitan Perth

To map the terrain of the study area, Landsat Thematic Mapper data was used as input. It

has 25 meters spatial resolution and has 6 frequency bands. (Further information about the data

specifications can be obtained from the Australian Centre for Remote Sensing (ACRES) website

http://www.ga.gov.au/acres/prod_ser/landdata.htm). The satellite database of bands 432 (RGB)

is depicted in Fig. 5. The estimated terrain classification map using image software is shown

in Fig. 6.

The terrain/height multiplier (Mz) can be estimated by applying Table 1 for a specified

structure using upwind terrain classifications over a design standard specified distance related to

the height of the structure. However, since we do not have data giving the heights of individual

buildings, apart from a small set of surveyed ones, nominated heights have been assumed for

buildings and vegetations in each terrain category.

Table 3 lists the nominated heights with respect to various terrain classifications and the

calculated terrain/height multipliers according to Table 1. Note that some interpolation was

necessary in order to estimate the values of Mz for some terrain classifications that were between

two terrain categories, such as forest.

The averaging process described earlier was to deal with different terrain classifications

upwind of a structure of primary interest. The distance for averaging depends on the height of

the structure. However, since the nominated heights for various terrain classifications in the

Perth wind study area are all less than 50 metres, an averaging distance of 1 km was adopted,

following Table 4.2(A) of AS/NZS 1170.2 (2002). The terrain/height multipliers were

estimated after the averaging process. Fig. 7 shows the Mz for the wind direction from West

to East.

Using the practical method described earlier to estimate Ms, an averaging distance of 300 m

was adopted for suburban and industrial area, while 1 km was used for city buildings. These

distances were the radiuses of the shielding zone (the area of averaging) which were 20 times

the nominated building heights given in Table 3. Fig. 8 shows the estimated shielding

multipliers for winds from West to East in the study area.

Table 3. The nominated height in each terrain category

4 City 50 0.9

Forest 20 0.794

Town centre/Industrial 20 0.92

3 Suburb buildings 3-10 0.83

Trees <5 0.89

2 Water/Airport <3 0.91

Cut grass <3 0.92

Fig. 7. Terrain/height multipliers Mz for the wind direction from West to East

Fig. 8. Shielding multipliers Ms for the study area

The topographic features of metropolitan Perth have been captured by a DEM (digital

elevation Model) generated from spot height data at a spacing of 1 minute UTM. The DEM of

metropolitan Perth in a 25m by 25m grid is shown in Fig. 9. It can be seen that the majority

of metropolitan Perth is gently undulating, except the Darling Range Scarp which is more than

200m above mean sea level. Note that, the Gooseberry Hill weather station was built on the

Darling Range Scarp with the purpose of catching the easterly winds.

Fig. 9. The elevation (in m) of metropolitan Perth in a 25m by 25m grid

In the application of Eq.(2), the value of z (height of the structure above the local ground

level) was set to zero. There were three reasons to do this. First, the estimate of a topographic

multiplier is required for every point within the study area of metropolitan Perth, whether it

currently has a building on it or not. So a building height may not currently exist. Secondly,

even in the case of an existing building, in general we do not know the height of the building

without a physical building survey having been done. Thirdly, the Mh value has been found to

be insensitive to the value of building height.

The 8-directional topographic wind multipliers for metropolitan Perth on a 25 by 25 metres

grid have been estimated. Among them, the Mh for West to East is shown in Fig. 10.

Fig. 10. The Mh of metropolitan Perth from West to East

The combined local wind effect (named M3) was obtained by multiplying three individual

multipliers Mz, Ms and Mh together on grid in each direction. Fig. 11 displays the M3 of the

study area with the wind direction from West to East. M3 can be used to convert site wind

speeds recorded to regional speeds and vice versa.

CONCLUSIONS

Computational techniques have been developed to estimate local wind effects effectively

and efficiently. These local wind effects include the terrain/height multipliers, shielding

multipliers and topographic multipliers at each wind direction on a fine grid. The proposed

methods use satellite remote sensing techniques, geographic information systems, digital image

analysis software, digital elevation dataset and scientific computational software. A case study

of metropolitan Perth was given to demonstrate the developed techniques.

Fig. 11. Multiplier M3 for wind from West to East for the study area

REFERENCES

AS/NZS 1170.2 (2002), Structural Design Actions, Part 2: Wind Actions, Australian/New

Zealand Standard.

AS/NZS 1170.2 Supp 1 (2002), Structural Design Actions ʊ Wind Actions ʊ Commentary,

Australian/New Zealand Standard.

Lillesand, T.M. and Kiefer, R.W. (1994), Remote Sensing and Image Interpretation, John Wiley

& Sons Inc., 3rd Ed., 524-634.

Lin, X. (2004), Probabilistic framework of cyclone risk assessment, 5th Asia-Pacific Industrial

Engineering and Management Systems Conference, Gold Coast, December 12-15.

Lin, X. and Courtney, J. (2004), Statistical spatial analysis of severe wind gusts in Perth,

International Conference on Storms: Storm Science to Disaster Mitigation, Brisbane, July

5-9, 118-119.

Lin, X. (2005), How reliable are estimates of likely extreme wind speeds for metropolitan Perth?

4th International Symposium on Business and Industrial Statistics, Cairns, April 13-16.

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