Economics of Climate Change and Low Carbon Growth Strategies in Northeast Asia JAPAN’s 2nd NATIONAL WORKSHOP 4 November

2010 Hilton Hotel Tokyo, Japan

Assessment of Vulnerability of Crop  Production to Climate Change
Akio TAKEMOTO 竹本明生
Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S), University of Tokyo

Banjarmasin Indonesia, May 2010 1

Questions

How much is crop production vulnerable in each country? How much does climate variability affect crop production? How much does other factors (socio-economic factors) affect crop production? How to measure vulnerability? How much is the vulnerability deferent between countries?

Asia Pacific Climate Change Adaptation Forum 20-21, October, 2010, Bangkok

549 participants

Themes of Parallell Sessions
1. Vertical Integration - Multi-level Governance, Science and Policy 2. Horizontal Integration - Cross Sectoral Policy Planning and Implementation 3. Financing Adaptation & Aid Effectiveness 4. Role of Science in Adaptive Development 5. Vulnerability-based Adaptation 6. Market-based Mechanism to Adaptation 7. Adaptation Policies, Legislation & Regulations 8. Climate Uncertainty - Is this an 9. impediment to adaptation? 10. Capacity Needs for Mainstreaming

Concept of Vulnerability Based Adaptation Baas et al., (2010, forthcoming)

How to measure vulnerability of crop production?
Mean values (baseline) of crop yields Variability of crop yields
Annual change of yields of all crops (kg/ha) (1982‐2006)  (Takemoto, 2010; FAO, 2009)
East Asia & Europe

Southeast Asia

Mongolia & Africa

Method to measure vulnerability of crop production Cr(i) = {yCr(i) – ŷCr (i)}/ ŷCr (i) = {yCr(i) –(aCr x(i) + bCr)}/ ŷCr (i)
Cr(i) : annual variability of crop yield Cr(i) stands for the estimated error from the regression value (ŷCr (i)) calculated from time series of crop yield in the year i (yCr(i)),

VCr =

{ Cr(i) -

}2

VCr : vulnerability of crop production =variance of Cr(i)

Method to measure impacts of climate variability on crop yield  Simple regression Cr(i) = α1×Tm(i) + β1 Cr(i) = α2×Pr(i) + β2 Cr(i) = α3×Dy(i) + β3

Tm(i) = {yTm(i) – Pr(i) = {yPr(i) – Dy(i) = {yDy(i) –

}/SDTm } /SDPr } /SDDy

Correlation coefficient between Cr(i) and Tm(i) = γC-T Cr(i) and Pr(i ) = γC-P, Cr(i) and Dy(i) = γC-D

Method to measure impacts of climate variability on crop yield  Multiple regressions Cr(i) = a1×Tm(i) + b1×Pr(i) + d1 :T-P-2 Regression Model Cr(i) = a2×Tm(i) +c2×Dy(i) + d2 :T-D-2 Regression Model  R2 statistic calculated from these regression models represents ratio of impacts of climate variability to variance (VCr).  To define R2 as the “climate impact ratio”.  To hypothesize that residue of climate impact ratio (1- R2) represents “socio-economic impact ratio” to vulnerability of crop production, whose impact is irrelevant to climatic variation.

 2つの重回帰モデルで 求めた決定理数 (R2:Climate impact ratio)

Table 3Maximum climate impact ratio (R2) among four six-month periods calculated by T-P-2 and T–D-2 models. Figures in the parentheses shows periods at the highest R2. Shaded columns show the higher ratio between two models.
T-P-2(independent valuables: mean temperature and amount of precipitation
0.73(7-12) 0.23(5-10) 0.42(5-10) 0.13(7-12) 0.14(7-12) 0.56(5-10) 0.09(5-10) 0.18(3-8) 0.15(1-6) 0.32(3-8) 0.46(3-8) 0.32(3-8) 0.15(5-10) 0.06(7-12) 0.23(1-6) 0.09(5-10) 0.19(1-6) 0.06(1-6) 0.27(1-6) 0.59(7-12) 0.25(3-8)

Regions

Countries

T-D-2(independent valuables: mean temperature and number of days over 1mm precipitation
0.72(7-12) 0.28(3-8) 0.24(1-6) 0.06(3-8) 0.15(7-12) 0.45(3-8) 0.05(1-6) 0.29(1-6) 0.15(3-8) 0.48(3-8) 0.36(3-8) 0.45(3-8) 0.22(5-10) 0.09(7-12) 0.49(1-6) 0.36(1-6) 0.47(1-6) 0.08(3-8) 0.28(1-6) 0.57(7-12) 0.19(3-8)

Japan East Asia R. O. Korea Vietnam Malaysia Southeast Asia Philippines Indonesia Saudi Arabia Middle East Syrian A.R. Egypt UK Germany West & South Netherland Europe Italy Greece Algeria North Africa Morocco Tunisia Benin Togo West Africa Burkina Faso Cote d'Ivoire

35

Single regression: Correlation coefficient : Crop yield vs. Temperature

33

Yield vs. Amount of precipitation (up) Yield vs. Number of days of precipitation (down)

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Which factor (temperature / Precipitation) does affect predominantly over crop productivity? T-P-2

Red : Temperature, Blue: Amount of precipitation Figure Standardized partial coefficients calculated by T-P-2 model. The countries in which the maximum R2 is over 0.30 are selected.

T-D-2

Red : Temperature, Green : Number of days over 1mm precipitation
Figure Standardized partial coefficients calculated by T-D-2 model. The countries in which the maximum R2 is over 0.30 are selected.

Size of vulnerability of crop production and share of climate impact factor

Figure Country comparison of variance of Cr(i)(VCr) and R2 derived from two types of multiple regression models(blue portions). Vertical axis is shown in logarithmic display.

Figure Country comparison of variance of Cr(i)(VCr) and R2 derived from two types of multiple regression models (blue portions). Vertical axis is shown in logarithmic display.

Summary ‐ regional characteristics on vulnerability on crop production
 Climate impact ratio  R2 is Relatively high in some of Asian region (Japan, Vietnam and Indonesia), West Europe, North Africa, and Burkina Faso, while relatively low in some of the following regions (Southeast Asia, Middle East, Sotuh Europe and West Africa).  Generally, rainfall gives more impacts to crop production than temperature.  It is suggested heavy rainfall decreases crop yield in East Asia, West Europe, while shortage of rainfall decreases it in such areas as North Africa.  Vulnerability of crop production  Vcr is relatively high in Syria, Saudi Arabia and North/West Africa, while low in East/Southeast Asia, Egypt and West Europe.  Types of vulnerability  Climate factor (Vcr*R2) would be relatively high in Japan, west Europe, North Africa, part of Middle East and part of West Africa.  Socio-economic factor (Vcr*(1-R2)) would be relatively high in Middle East, North Africa and part of Southeast Asia, South Europe and West Africa.
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Points to be improved • Detail information based on surveys in each  country • Quantitative analysis on vulnerability of crop  production derived from socio‐economic  factors • Further development of Indicators to measure  vulnerability of to climate change • others  

ご清聴ありがとうございました。 Thank you for your attention!

Area harvested Data refer to the area from which a crop is gathered. Area harvested, therefore, excludes the area from which, although sown or planted, there was no harvest due to damage, failure, etc. It is usually net for temporary crops and some times gross for permanent crops. Net area differs from gross area insofar as the latter includes uncultivated patches, footpaths, ditches, headlands, shoulders, shelterbelts, etc. If the crop under consideration is harvested more than once during the year as a consequence of successive cropping (i.e. the same crop is sown or planted more than once in the same field during the year), the area is counted as many times as harvested. On the contrary, area harvested will be recorded only once in the case of successive gathering of the crop during the year from the same standing crops. With regard to mixed and associated crops, the area sown relating to each crop should be reported separately. When the mixture refers to particular crops, generally grains, it is recommended to treat the mixture as if it were a single crop; therefore, area sown is recorded only for the crop reported. (from FAOSTAT)

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