THREE ESSAYS IN INTERNATIONAL FINANCE

DISSERTATION

Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University

By Rodolfo Martell, M.A. The Ohio State University 2005

Dissertation Committee: Professor René M. Stulz, Adviser Professor G. Andrew Karolyi Professor Bernadette A. Minton

Approved by

_________________ Adviser Graduate Program in Business Administration

ABSTRACT

Recent research in international finance focuses on the extent to which markets are integrated across countries, how shocks propagate from one country to another and how firms in foreign countries react to country level shocks. This dissertation provides empirical evidence on the degree of integration in international bond markets, on the propagation of extreme shocks between cross-listed shares and domestic markets and on the dispersion in capital market reactions across firms to sovereign rating changes. In the first dissertation essay, I study the determinants of credit spread changes of individual U.S. dollar denominated bonds – domestic and foreign sovereign – using fundamentals specified by structural models. Credit spreads are important determinants of the cost of debt for all issuers and are fully determined by credit risk in structural models. I construct a new dataset of domestic corporate and sovereign U.S. dollar bonds, which I use to find that changes in spreads not explained by fundamentals have two large common components that are distinct for each type of debt I study. Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, I find that domestic spreads are related to the lagged first component of sovereign spreads. Consequently, even though there is no

contemporaneous common component in bond spreads, there seems to be a common component when focusing on the dynamics of these spreads. Traditional macro liquidity
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variables are related to the common components found in domestic and sovereign spread changes. My findings suggest possible explanations for the common component documented by previous research in domestic debt spreads. My research shows that, after taking into account the dynamics of the common components in credit spreads across debt types, the cost of debt for firms and countries depends to some extent on shocks that affect all types of debt. The second dissertation essay studies the extreme linkages between Latin American equities and the US stock market using tools from Extreme Value Theory (EVT). Bivariate extreme value measures are applied on six different country pairs between the U.S. S&P500 Index and each of the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela. I find evidence of: a) asymmetric behavior in the left and right tails of the joint marginal extreme distributions, and b) differences in extreme correlations for different instruments (investing in ADRs vs. investing directly in the local stock markets) when no difference was to be expected. There is also evidence of a structural change in the correlations for the Mexican case before and after the 1995 Mexican crisis. The third dissertation essay studies the effect of sovereign credit rating changes issued by Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s on the cross section of domestically traded stocks. I first establish, consistent with earlier literature that analyzed similar phenomena in the U.S. (e.g. Holthausen and Leftwich, 1986; Goh and Ederington, 1993), that local stock markets react only to news of sovereign credit rating downgrades. Cumulative abnormal returns of stock indices also show that investors react only to rating announcements made by Standard & Poor’s and not to those by Moody’s. I then study the
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cross sectional variation of the abnormal returns of individual firms associated with sovereign credit rating changes. I find that larger firms experience larger stock price drops after a sovereign credit downgrade. Also, firms located in more developed emerging countries experience smaller stock price reductions following sovereign credit downgrades. Finally, I document that firms that had access to international capital markets experience larger abnormal returns than firms that do not have access to international financial markets.

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Dedicated to my family

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I wish to thank my adviser, René Stulz, for intellectual support, encouragement, and enthusiasm which made this dissertation possible, and for his patience in correcting both my stylistic and methodological errors. I thank Andrew Karolyi for stimulating discussions, guidance, and

encouragement, not only with this dissertation but throughout my graduate studies. I am grateful to Bernadette Minton for discussing with me various aspects of this thesis, and for her insightful feedback. I also wish to thank Mike Cooper, Craig Doidge, Jean Helwege, Francis Longstaff, and seminar participants at Drexel University, Fordham University, Ohio State University, Purdue University, Queen’s University, and University of Virginia for helpful comments and suggestions.

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VITA

July 9, 1972.................Born – Puebla, Puebla, Mexico 1996............................Bachelor of Arts in Economics, Udla-Puebla, Mexico 1996 – 1999 ...............Analyst, Bancrecer Petroleos Mexicanos 2000............................Master of Arts in Economics, Ohio State University

PUBLICATIONS

Research Publication 1. R. Martell and R. Stulz, “Equity Market Liberalizations as Country IPOs.” American Economic Review, 93(2), 97, (2003)

FIELDS OF STUDY

Major Field: Business Administration Concentration: Finance

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii Dedication ........................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. vi Vita.................................................................................................................................... vii

List of tables....................................................................................................................... xi List of figures................................................................................................................... xiii

Chapter 1: Introduction ....................................................................................................... 1

Chapter 2: Understanding common factors in domestic and international bond spreads... 6 2.1. Introduction.............................................................................................................. 6 2.2. Debt spreads of sovereign bonds ........................................................................... 10 2.2.1. Sovereign debt literature. ................................................................................ 11 2.2.2. Implications of the literature and proxies used to test them. .......................... 14 2.2.2.1 Bond-specific variables............................................................................. 15 2.2.2.2. Country-specific variables ....................................................................... 15 2.2.2.3. U.S. interest rate term structure. .............................................................. 16 2.2.3. Data description .............................................................................................. 16 2.2.4. A model for sovereign spreads ....................................................................... 20 2.3. Debt spreads of domestic bonds ............................................................................ 22 2.3.1. Domestic debt literature.................................................................................. 23 2.3.2. Theoretical determinants of domestic debt spreads ........................................ 25 2.3.2.1. Bond specific variables ............................................................................ 25 2.3.2.2. Firm specific variables............................................................................. 25
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2.3.2.3 U.S. interest rate term structure ............................................................ 26 2.3.3. Data description .............................................................................................. 26 2.3.4. A model for domestic debt spreads................................................................. 28 2.4. Analyzing the common factor................................................................................ 29 2.4.1. Establishing the existence of common factors................................................ 29 2.4.2. Explanatory power of the extracted components............................................ 33 2.5. Looking into the information content of the common factors ............................... 34 2.5.1. Lead-lag relations............................................................................................ 34 2.6. Conclusions and future work ................................................................................. 39 Chapter 3. Latin American and U.S. equities return linkages: An extreme value approach ........................................................................................................................................... 41 3.1 Introduction............................................................................................................. 41 3.2. Literature review.................................................................................................... 44 3.2.1. The univariate case ......................................................................................... 47 3.2.2. The bivariate case ........................................................................................... 50 3.3. Data ........................................................................................................................ 51 3.4 A small test for the Mexican pairs .......................................................................... 55 3.5. Concluding remarks ............................................................................................... 55 Chapter 4. The effect of sovereign credit rating changes on emerging stock markets ..... 58 4.1. Introduction............................................................................................................ 58 4.2. Literature review.................................................................................................... 65 4.3. The effect of sovereign rating changes on stock market indices ........................... 71 4.3.1. Data ................................................................................................................. 72 4.3.2. Methodology ................................................................................................... 74 4.3.3. Discussion of index level results..................................................................... 75 4.4. Impact of sovereign rating changes at the firm level............................................. 79 4.5. Conclusions............................................................................................................ 86 Chapter 5: Conclusions ..................................................................................................... 88 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................... 91
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Appendix A. A comparison of sovereign bond coverage on Datastream and the NAIC . 99 Appendix B. Tables ........................................................................................................ 103 Appendix C. Figures ....................................................................................................... 134

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LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Expected signs on explanatory variables for sovereign sample ....................... 104 Table 2. Summary statistics for sovereign sample.......................................................... 105 Table 3. Sovereign spreads fixed effect regressions....................................................... 106 Table 4. Expected signs on explanatory variables for domestic sample......................... 107 Table 5. Summary statistics for domestic sample........................................................... 108 Table 6. Domestic spreads fixed effect regressions........................................................ 109 Table 7. Correlation structure of residuals...................................................................... 110 Table 8. Principal component analysis of residuals........................................................ 112 Table 9. Sovereign and domestic regressions including the common factors ................ 114 Table 10. Vector autoregression model with exogenous variables................................. 115 Table 11. Summary statistics .......................................................................................... 116 Table 12. Extreme correlations using different number of tail exceedances.................. 117 Table 13. Sovereign rating changes by Standard & Poor's............................................. 118 Table 14. Sovereign rating changes by Moody's ............................................................ 119 Table 16. Stock index results using Moody's ratings...................................................... 121 Table 17. Stock index results using initial ratings .......................................................... 122 Table 18. First ratings for Argentina............................................................................... 123 Table 19. Stock market reaction to the first rating by either agency .............................. 124

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Table 20. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for stocks with international financing ......................................................................................................................................... 125 Table 21. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for all stocks following a sovereign rating downgrade ............................................................................................................ 126 Table 22. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for all stocks following a sovereign rating upgrade ................................................................................................................. 129 Table 23. Countries included in this comparison............................................................ 132 Table 24. Coverage for sovereign bonds on Datastream and Warga databases. ............ 133

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LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. First common component ................................................................................ 135 Figure 2. Second common component............................................................................ 135 Figure 3. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican equity index..................................................................................................................... 136 Figure 4. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican ADR equally weighted portfolio..................................................................................... 137 Figure 5. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the S&P 500 equity index..................................................................................................................... 138 Figure 6. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican equity index...................................................................................................... 139 Figure 7. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican ADR equally weighted portfolio...................................................................... 140 Figure 8. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the S&P 500 equity index ..................................................................................................... 141 Figure 9. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index and correlation between S&P and Mexican ADRs.................................................................................. 142 Figure 10. Correlation between S&P and the Chilean stock market index and correlation between S&P and Chilean ADRs ................................................................................... 142

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Figure 11. Correlation between S&P and the Venezuelan stock market index and correlation between S&P and Venezuelan ADRs........................................................... 143 Figure 12. Correlation between S&P and the Colombian stock market index and correlation between S&P and Colombian ADRs............................................................ 143 Figure 13. Correlation between S&P and the Brazilian stock market index and correlation between S&P and Brazilian ADRs ................................................................................. 144 Figure 14. Correlation between S&P and the Argentinean stock market index and correlation between S&P and Argentinean ADRs.......................................................... 144 Figure 15. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index and correlation between S&P and Mexican ADRs before the 1995 Mexican crisis ............................... 145 Figure 16. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index and correlation between S&P and Mexican ADRs after the 1995 Mexican crisis .................................. 145 Figure 17. Sovereign Downgrades (S&P) ...................................................................... 146 Figure 18. Sovereign Upgrades (S&P) ........................................................................... 146 Figure 21. Sovereign Downgrades (Moody’s)................................................................ 147 Figure 20. Sovereign Upgrades (Moody’s) .................................................................... 147

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CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

The last twenty years have witnessed large reductions in regulations and barriers that prevented financial integration across countries. As markets slowly became more integrated, brand new fields for financial research opened up. Not only could we study if foreign markets behaved in a similar way to U.S. markets, but we also could study issues surrounding the integration of U.S. and international financial markets. The first dissertation essay investigates whether common factors that explain credit debt spread changes for domestic and sovereign debt after taking into account fundamentals are related, and then proceeds to analyze the determinants of these common factors. This dissertation essay looks at two groups of assets that had previously been studied only separately. It focuses on credit spread changes of U.S domestic bonds and sovereign bonds, making it the first paper to bring together these two groups of individual bonds to study their joint dynamics. Previous research in spread changes of U.S. domestic bonds identified a common component unrelated to credit risk in the time-series and cross-section of the unexplained portion of the spreads (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and Martin, 2001; Huang and Huang, 2003). If the U.S. and overseas market for dollar-denominated credit-risky bonds is
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integrated, the information present in the unexplained portion of U.S. dollar sovereign debt spread changes should be related to unexplained portion of U.S, domestic bonds spread changes. This especially should be the case if that common component can be explained by liquidity shocks, since such shocks are pervasive across markets (Chen, Lesmond, and Wei, 2002; Chordia, Sarkar, and Subrahmanyam, 2003; Kamara, 1994). Existing research investigates separately the existence of common components in changes in credit spreads for domestic credit-risky debt (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and Martin, 2001) and dollar-denominated sovereign debt (Scherer and Avellaneda, 2000; Westphalen, 2003). The contribution of this dissertation essay is to study the relation between the common components identified in domestic debt and the common components found in sovereign credit spreads. To conduct this analysis, a new dataset comprised of all domestic industrial and U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign debt is constructed. This dataset contains data for 233 non-callable, non-puttable bonds issued by 37 emerging countries and 3097 domestic corporate bonds issued by 649 different companies that traded between January 1990 and January 2003. Results obtained help to discriminate between competing explanations for the common component previously documented for domestic debt, and also might suggest new explanations. I find strong evidence of the existence of two common factors unrelated to credit risk in debt spread changes of U.S. denominated sovereign debt and in the debt spread changes of domestic bonds. While principal component analysis shows no evidence of contemporaneous correlation between the two domestic and the two sovereign factors, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model shows that domestic spread changes are related to the
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lagged sovereign spread’s first principal component. Finally, I find that all four common factors are related to the flows of money going into equity and bond funds, and the second common component of each group is related to the net borrowed reserves from the Federal Reserve, a macroeconomic measure of liquidity. The second dissertation essay analyses the extent of the financial and economic integration between Latin American countries and the United States by focusing on the behavior of linkages between financial assets using a statistical technique known as Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT is the study of outliers or extremal events. Since large movements in returns are usually characteristic of financial crisis and since these large movements can be considered outliers, the use of EVT seems to be warranted. This approach has several advantages. First among these are the well-known results on asymptotic behavior of the distribution of very high quantiles. Second, no assumptions are needed about the true underlying distribution that generated data in the first place. Since financial contagion usually occurs during periods of very high distress, it seems to be best analyzed using techniques that focus on the tails of a distribution function. (Bae, Karolyi and Stulz, 2003) The financial assets I analyze are American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their domestic counterparts in Latin America. Latin American firms can cross-list their shares in the U.S. via ADR programs, and at the end of 2001 there were 1,322 non-U.S. firms with sponsored programs, including 623 trading on American stock exchanges with a total trading volume of $752 billion. This chapter documents evidence of the asymmetric transmission of shocks from U.S. stock markets into domestic markets. It builds on the work of Longin (1996) and
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Longin and Solnik (2001) applying EVT in finance by examining the linkage between financial assets available to U.S. investors looking for international exposure before and after main events such as the 1995 Mexican crisis. It also adds to the growing literature on financial contagion by employing a statistical technique more “appropriate” than current approaches based on elliptic distributions for the often temporary, but large, movements in prices. The third dissertation essay studies the effect of sovereign credit rating changes on the cross-section of locally-traded firms. A sovereign credit rating reflects the rating agency’s opinion on the ability and willingness of sovereign governments to service their outstanding financial obligations and it reflects macroeconomic factors related to political and financial stability. Sovereign credit ratings have large effects that spread to firms located within their borders, and changes to these ratings constitute country-wide shocks that can have sizable effects on the terms under which firms obtain financing and the overall cost of capital. This chapter contributes to the existing literature by extending our understanding of how much information sovereign rating changes convey to individual stocks within domestic markets. Specifically, I investigate if and why a country rating matters for firms within a country. I show that sovereign rating changes affect the terms on which a domestic firm can get credit, creating an exogenous change in the cost of capital. I divide the results into two parts: I first present the effect of rating changes at the aggregate level using national stock indices, and then proceed to study the effect of those sovereign rating changes on the individual firms located within those countries. Index level results are consistent with the extant literature on the effect of credit-rating changes on U.S.
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firms. I do find evidence of a significant negative stock price reaction to sovereign rating downgrades while I find no evidence of a stock price reaction to sovereign rating upgrades. Further, I document that local stock markets react only to news of sovereign rating downgrades issued by Standard & Poor’s. To conduct this analysis I collected all sovereign rating changes issued by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s on 29 emerging countries from 1986 until 2003. I study the stock price reaction to 136 downgrades (81 from S&P and 55 from Moody’s) and 100 upgrades (57 and 43 from S&P and Moody’s respectively). I also collect information on 1281 individual firms located in 29 emerging countries. After computing abnormal returns for each firm, cross-sectional regressions of those abnormal returns are run on firm-specific characteristics and country-specific variables. I document how the size and wealth of the country where a firm is domiciled are related to the extent to which that a firm will be affected by a sovereign-rating change. More importantly, I find that previous access to international capital markets is an important determinant of the extent to which a firm is affected by a sovereign credit rating change.

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CHAPTER 2 UNDERSTANDING COMMON FACTORS IN DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL BOND SPREADS

2.1.

Introduction. In this chapter I analyze the determinants of credit spread changes of individual

U.S domestic and sovereign bonds. Previous research has focused on one type of bonds at a time, making this paper the first one to bring together the credit spreads on these two types of debt to study their joint dynamics. If the market for dollar-denominated creditrisky bonds is integrated, we can expect credit and non-credit related shocks to affect all bonds, i.e. the information present in the time series cross-section of the unexplained portion of U.S. dollar sovereign debt spread changes should be related to the common component unrelated to credit risk identified by previous research in spread changes of U.S. domestic bonds (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and Martin, 2001; Huang and Huang, 2003). This should especially be the case if that common component can be explained by liquidity shocks, since such shocks are pervasive across markets (Chen, Lesmond, and Wei, 2002; Chordia, Sarkar, and Subrahmanyam, 2003; Kamara, 1994). In this chapter, I investigate whether common factors that explain credit spread changes for domestic and sovereign debt after taking into account fundamentals are related and analyze the determinants of these common factors.
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Existing research investigates separately the existence of common components in changes in credit spreads for domestic credit-risky debt and dollar-denominated sovereign debt. Scherer and Avellaneda (2000) identify the existence of two common factors for sovereign debt spread changes. Westphalen (2003) finds evidence of a common factor for sovereign debt spread changes of bonds denominated in several currencies after controlling for country risk proxies. Research on changes in domestic bond credit spreads by Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein and Martin (2001) finds one common component after controlling for fundamentals. The relation between these common components has not been examined in the literature. I extend the research on common components present in bond spreads by examining whether the information in the dynamics of U.S. dollar denominated sovereign debt spreads is associated with the common component found in U.S. corporate bond spreads. Specifically, I estimate different models of spread changes for each type of bonds – domestic and sovereign – because these two groups vary in their source of credit risk. Using principal component analysis for each debt type, I extract common factors from the unexplained portion of credit spread changes from these models. I investigate whether the common factors in U.S. dollar denominated sovereign debt are related to the common factors present in U.S. corporate debt spread changes using both regressions explaining contemporaneous changes in spreads and a dynamic model of changes in spreads. Finally, I attempt to provide an economic interpretation for the relations I uncover. To conduct this analysis, I construct a new dataset that is comprised of all domestic industrial and U.S. dollar-denominated sovereign debt. This dataset contains
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data for 233 non-callable, non-puttable bonds issued by 37 emerging countries and 3097 domestic corporate bonds issued by 649 different companies that traded between January 1990 and January 2003. This dataset is different from the ones used by earlier studies in at least three ways. First, extant bond studies that use Datastream bond data do not include ‘dead’ issues, i.e., bonds that have matured or were retired, while I include them to avoid a survivorship bias. Second, the Fixed Income Database used in some other studies has a limited coverage of high-yield issues since it mainly covers investmentgrade bonds (Huang and Kong, 2003). I do not have this problem because my dataset contains data for the complete universe of bonds covered by Datastream.1 Finally, this dataset covers a longer time period than any previous study. My results help to discriminate between competing explanations for the common component previously documented for domestic debt, and also suggest new explanations. I find strong evidence of the existence of two common factors unrelated to credit risk in debt spread changes of U.S. denominated sovereign debt and in the debt spread changes of domestic bonds. While principal component analysis shows no evidence of contemporaneous correlation between the two domestic and the two sovereign factors, a vector autoregressive (VAR) model shows that domestic spread changes are related to the lagged sovereign spread first common component. Finally, I find that all four common factors are related to the flows of money going into equity and bond funds, as measured by the Investment Company Institute (ICI), while only the second common component of

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Informal conversations with Datastream’s customer service revealed that several large banks, including Lehman Brothers, were among their providers for bond data. Since Lehman Brothers was the provider for the FISD, we feel confident Datastream’s data includes what is covered in the FISD and has broader coverage of high-yield bonds because of the additional data providers. A comparison between FISD and Datastream sovereign bond data can be found in Annex A. 8

each group is related to the net borrowed reserves form the Federal Reserve, a macroeconomic measure of liquidity. This chapter is the first one to bring together these two types of credit-risky dollar-denominated debt to study the joint dynamics of the common factors in their credit spreads. The results I obtain improve our understanding of the determinants of the cost of debt for foreign countries and for domestic firms. For example, my results suggest that the cost of debt for foreign countries and domestic firms is not only a function of their own creditworthiness but also depends on shocks that affect the price of all debt. Further, these results help us understand better the extent to which the sovereign and domestic corporate bond markets are integrated. In a fully integrated dollar debt market, we would expect the relation between domestic corporate credit spreads and sovereign credit spreads to be contemporaneous. Further research should investigate whether the lack of a contemporaneous relation is due to differences in liquidity and infrequent trading or if this reflects a market inefficiency. Finally, the lack of a relation between the common components of domestic corporate credit spread changes and sovereign credit spread changes suggests that the cost of debt for emerging markets depends mostly on country and emerging-market specific considerations. This is surprising in light of a considerable literature that emphasizes the impact of developed country developments for capital flows into emerging markets (Calvo, Leiderman, and Reinhart, 1993; Chuhan, Claessens, and Mamingi, 1998). Further investigation of the robustness of my results might shed greater insight into this issue.

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This chapter proceeds as follows. Section II describes the literature, sample, variables and methodology used to model credit spread changes for sovereign bonds. Section III does the same for credit spread changes for domestic corporate bonds. I investigate, using a variety of techniques, the existence and nature of the factors affecting debt spread changes in section IV. Section V analyzes the dynamics of the common factors and investigates whether liquidity and/or demand related variables are related to them. Section VI concludes.

2.2

Debt spreads of sovereign bonds In order to examine whether a common factor is associated with the variation in

U.S. domestic corporate and U.S. dollar denominated sovereign spreads, the unexplained variation in each spread (i.e. residuals) must be calculated. My choice of variables to compute the credit risk portion of debt spread changes is based on the determinants of bond spread changes specified by structural models. For sovereign bond spreads, I expect bond-specific characteristics to be associated with bond spreads. Additionally, I expect bond spreads to be related to macro or country-specific factors as well as systematic factors. In this section, I review the relevant literature on U.S. dollar denominated sovereign bond spreads (section 2.1), and then discuss the testable implications of the extant literature and describe the proxies that are used to test the hypotheses derived from it (section 2.2). I describe the sovereign bond sample next (section 2.3), present a model to estimate debt spreads, discuss the results, and explain the computation of residuals (section 2.4).

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2.2.1

Sovereign debt literature. The international debt market changed dramatically in the past 25 years. In the

1980s bank loans were the principal instrument of this market. By the end of that decade, reckless lending and borrowing caused outstanding debt balances to skyrocket to unsustainable levels. The crushing pressure of debt payments forced several emerging market countries to the verge of default. To avoid the ripple effects of such a default on the world’s financial system –which was still recovering from the 1987 stock market crash-- the U.S. government helped put in place a plan that would allow these countries to orderly restructure their debt schedule. The Brady plan, formulated in 1989 by then Secretary of the Treasury Nicholas Brady in association with the World Bank and IMF, called for the issuance of sovereign bonds to replace the loans of commercial banks.2 Brady bonds opened a vast and untapped market for emerging market countries hungry for U.S. dollars to help finance their growth, commercial deficits or simply to cover current expenses. Bank loans, while still an important component in sovereign debt balances, gave way to sovereign bonds as the principal financing instrument for emerging countries in the 1990s. Bonds were clearly preferred for several reasons, for instance the dispersion of creditors and the existence of a market where these bonds could be actively traded, which provided investors with a transparent benchmark measure of country risk.

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These bonds were coupon bearing (fixed, floating or hybrid), long maturity (ten to thirty years) issued in registered or bearer form, whose principal and part of the interest were guaranteed by collateral of U.S. Treasury bonds and other high grade securities. Some of them included special recovery rights (warrants) that could be detached and traded separately. This last characteristic made the computations of yields for these bonds especially tricky. 11

The sovereign spread, or credit spread, computed now from bond yields, continued to be such a benchmark measure of country risk.3 Starting in the 1980s, the determinants of sovereign debt spreads has been studied by Eaton and Gersovitz (1981), where governments trade off the cost of paying debt versus reputation costs or exclusion from capital markets, and Bulow and Rogoff (1989), who provide rational explanations for international lending and model the costs of debt repudiation as direct sanctions. Edwards (1984) analyzed the macroeconomic determinants of the debt spread measured as the difference between the interest rate charged to a particular country and LIBOR (London InterBank Offered Rate). Hernández-Trillo (1995) uses a measure openness, unexpected shocks to GDP, international reserves and the risk free rate to explain the probability of default in sovereign loans. The international episodes of financial contagion experienced in the second half of the 1990s attracted even more attention to this area, as researchers started to devote more time to the study of periods of increased co-movements among international financial markets. For instance, Cantor and Packer (1996) and Eichengreen and Moody (1998) study the determinants of bond spreads at the issue level, finding that agency ratings include most of the information existing in macroeconomic variables. More recently, Scherer and Avellaneda (2000), Joutz and Maxwell (2002) and Cifarelli and Paladino (2002) study selected series from several emerging markets using principal component analysis and vector-autoregressions.

The credit spread is often referred to as yield spread, debt spread or simply spread. These terms are used interchangeably in this paper. 12

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It was previously mentioned in this chapter I take a structural approach to the modeling of debt spreads. It is important to mention, though, that sovereign debt is different from corporate debt. One of the most important characteristics of any debt contract is the guarantee provided by the legal framework to creditors that allows them, in the case of default, to take possession of collateral and/or to liquidate the defaulting debtor’s assets. There is no enforceable bankruptcy code for sovereign bonds, making it effectively impossible for a creditor to successfully pursue a claim on a defaulting country’s assets. Acknowledging the endogenous default decision that countries face in this framework, Gibson and Sundaresan (1999) present a model in which creditors can impose trade sanctions and capture some fraction of the defaulting country’s exports, and Westphalen (2002) extends their model to include rescheduling in the form of a bond exchange. Finally, Westphalen (2003) applies a methodology used to study corporate credit spread changes (Collin-Dusfrene et.al. 2001) to a sample of sovereign bonds issued in different foreign currencies.4 So far, research on sovereign debt spreads has focused more on how spreads are determined at issue than on the study of the dynamics of the cross-section. There are two reasons for this. First, thin trading in many of these bonds produces relatively fewer sovereign bond transactions data. As a result, some data vendors resort to provide matrix prices (e.g. Bloomberg), which are not useful for research purposes.5 Second, in the early 1990s, when the market for sovereign debt was in its infancy, countries started by issuing
Another approach to the study of sovereign spreads has been implemented through the use of models based on an exogenously specified intensity process, known as reduced-form models. Merrick (2000) studies the implied recovery rations in Argentinean and Russian bonds. Pagès (2001) fits the joint Libor structure and discount Brady bond prices to a reduced-form model using a two factor affine-yield model. Duffie, Pedersen and Singleton (2003) conduct an analysis of Russian debt. 5 Actual quotes and/or transaction prices are available from different providers in the Bloomberg terminal through an additional subscription service. 13
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few bonds. As their credibility improved, reinforced by the implementation of structural reforms in their economies, and investors got acquainted with this new supply of bonds, sovereign issuers increased the number and amount of debt offerings. Therefore, it took some years for this market to be sufficiently diverse and liquid enough to allow the construction of a data panel suitable for research purposes. Today, the sovereign debt market is more developed –we have more bonds with longer time series each one- and there are better and more alternatives to obtain bond data – several information services provide access now to observed pricing data, although some remain very expensive.

2.2.2

Implications of the literature and proxies used to test them. Structural models of sovereign debt have identified macroeconomic variables that

affect sovereign debt spreads.6 Based in part on previous literature, I put together three groups of variables that should capture most of the debt spread variation. The first group contains bond-specific variables, i.e., variables that vary within bond issues, e.g. years to maturity. The second group contains variables that vary from country to country but are the same for all bonds from a given country (country-specific variables). The third group contains variables that are the same for all bonds in the sovereign sample, and try to capture changes in the U.S. interest rate term structure.

One problem with most empirical work exploring the relation between macroeconomic variables and debt spreads is that they conduct static analysis, i.e., only study the cross-section of spreads at one point in time, usually at issuance. For instance, GDP growth has been theoretically and empirically shown to have significant explanatory power over issue level spreads. This is not useful in this context since most of the data used in this paper is released monthly, quarterly or even annually in some countries. 14

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2.2.2.1 Bond-specific variables. The bond-specific variable used is years to maturity. By definition, a bond’s life to maturity duration measures how long an investor has to wait before getting their money back. Sovereign bonds pay (relatively) large coupons and therefore a large proportion of the cash flows are paid throughout the life of these bonds, thus we have to consider the possibility that years to maturity could be an overstated proxy of a bond’s average life.

2.2.2.2 Country-specific variables. These variables are chosen to capture a measure of a country’s distance-todefault, i.e., a country’s ability (and/or willingness, depending on the model of reference) to keep servicing its debt. Following Eaton and Gersovitz (1981), Bulow and Rogoff (1989), Krugman (1985, 1989), Gibson and Sundaresan (1999) and Westphalen (2002), I collect data on exports and total debt outstanding to construct a debt-to-exports ratio. Borrowing from Krugman and Rotemberg’s (1991) speculative currency attacks model, I use international reserves to construct a debt-to-reserves ratio as an alternate proxy of distance-default. Westphalen (2003) uses a political risk measure which I also use here. I also collect the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) ratings history for each country. I use the monthly volatility of local stock returns as a proxy for volatility in a country’s wealth or value. This measure is also used because it is a good proxy for local risk. One direct testable implication of this is that spreads should increase with volatility. Finally, the local stock market return in U.S. dollars is included.

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2.2.2.3 U.S. interest rate term structure. Since all the bonds in my dataset are denominated in U.S. dollars, I care about factors that affect the U.S. yield curve term structure. From Litterman and Scheinkman (1991) we know that the U.S. yield curve level and slope are important explanatory factors of the term structure. Further, in this framework, if a country’s wealth follows a stochastic process analogue to a firm’s value process, the risk neutral drift will be positively related to the risk-free rate. An increase (decrease) in the risk-free rate should increase (decrease) the country’s wealth over time, making default less (more) likely to happen. Since an upward-sloping yield curve slope is, according to the expectations hypothesis theory of the term structure,7 predicting higher interest rates in the near future, I expect this slope to have some effect on spreads today. Also, a positively sloped interest rate term structure is perceived as signaling increased economic activity in the near future. Table 1 presents the predicted correlation signs between the variables previously mentioned and debt spreads.

2.2.3

Data description. I collect monthly data on all U.S. dollar denominated bonds with Datastream

coverage. Datastream’s yields are calculated using average market maker prices provided by the International Securities Market Association (ISMA). I am able to identify 5270 ‘live’ and 3451 ‘dead’ bonds8 issued by foreigners that traded between January 1990 and

Bodie, Kane and Marcus (1999), pp. 446. One important feature of Datastream’s coverage of bonds is that only ‘live’ issues (i.e., issues that are currently trading) appear in their bond lists. Therefore, to make sure I had all available data, I conducted a 16
8

7

January 2003. I eliminate from the dataset all bonds that were callable and/or puttable at borrower’s option, all that had an early redemption feature and/or were extendible at the bond holder’s option, and all that were not issued by a sovereign entity.9 This leaves my dataset with 181 live and 52 dead bonds. Also, I eliminate all observations with less than one year to maturity because, as these bonds approach their maturity date, they are less traded, which in turn dries up their liquidity and distorts prices and yields.10 After all these adjustments, I come up with a sample that contains 9,275 monthly observations from 233 bonds issued by 37 different countries, which did trade between January 1990 and January 2003. For each bond, I collect the monthly redemption yield (datatype 4 in Datastream). I also collect the monthly U.S. Treasury yield curve. Then, I compute debt spreads as the difference between the redemption yield of the sovereign bond and the value of a linear interpolation of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to obtain the yield of a U.S. instrument with identical maturity as the bond being analyzed.11 I collect years to maturity time series for each bond. As proxies for the U.S. Treasury yield curve’s level and slope, I collect monthly annualized yields for the on-the-run two and ten year Treasury notes.12

country by country search of U.S. dollar denominated bonds in the ‘Dead bonds’ (not trading anymore because they were retired or they matured) section of the Datastream Extranet web site. 9 I am not using Brady bonds in my analysis because their characteristics are inherently different from regular sovereign bonds. The existence of collateral as well as the existence of value recovery rights attached to Brady bonds makes them a class on their own. Further, the tendency is for sovereigns to retire par and discount Brady bonds, so that movements in Brady bond’s prices might be reflecting low volume and thin trading problems and not changes associated with the underlying value of the issuer and the overall liquidity of the market For instance, Mexico’s Ministry of Finance and Public Credit announced on April 7, 2003 that it was calling US$3,839 million of its dollar-denominated Series A and B Brady Par Bonds, which were the last outstanding series of Mexican Brady Bonds denominated in dollars. 10 Sarig and Warga (1989). This effect is even more pervasive when considering that liquidity was not great in the first place. 11 I also collected the monthly U.S. Treasury yield curve using CMT (constant maturity treasuries) to calculate spreads and our results are insensitive to the choice of U.S. benchmark curve. 12 The use of CMT yields for those maturities did not affect our results at all. 17

Monthly exports data expressed in nominal U.S. dollars come from the IMF’s International Financial Statistics. Debt outstanding and foreign reserves data are obtained from the joint BIS-IMF-OECD-World Bank statistics on external debt. Quarterly data on the total amount outstanding of bank loans, of debt securities issued abroad and of Brady bonds is obtained from this source, as well as monthly data on the amount of international reserve assets, excluding gold.13 One shortcoming of this database is that not all series are available on a quarterly basis and there are some gaps in the data, especially in the earlier 1990s. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIR) started publishing in March 1997 a measure of country risk for emerging markets. It measures political, economic policy, economic structure, currency, sovereign debt and banking sector risks. This index can be used as a guide for the general risk of a specific country. It provides help in assessing the risk of investing in the financial markets of those economies as well as the risks involved in direct investment. The values are derived from measuring the risk associated with four aspects of the country –political risk, economic risk, economic structure risk and liquidity risk.14 To get a measure of monthly local wealth volatility, I use an equity volatility measure as proxy. Ideally, I wanted to use MSCI country indices, since they are calculated for each country using the same methodology. However, MSCI country indices were not available daily going back to the early 1990s for many of the countries

All figures are expressed in current U.S. dollars. The overall risk rating is measured on a scale from 1 to 100 where 1 denotes the least risk and 100 the most risk possible. For example, in December 2002, the value of the index was 78 for Argentina, 63 for Brazil and 48 for Mexico.
14

13

18

included in this paper. Therefore, I used Datastream local equity indices. For more than half of the countries in the sample (twenty one), I collect daily data for the local Datastream equity index. For eight additional countries, I collect daily data from their own local equity indices. For the remaining countries Datastream’s world total return index was used. To correct for differences in the scales of the indices the coefficient of variation (sample standard deviation over sample mean) was computed. I also collect the available history of Standard & Poor’s (S&P) country ratings from Bloomberg, and follow Eom, Helwege and Huang (2003) for translating S&P ratings into numerical values, where a rating of AAA has a value of 1, AA+ a value of 2 and so on. Table 2 has summary statistics for the sovereign sample. Observations are grouped in five different categories according to their S&P rating. It is evident from panel A that all groups display a high degree of non-normality. Also, as expected, spreads increase as we move down in ratings. The mean debt spread in the overall sample is 483 basis points, the maximum spread is 3939 basis points and the minimum is 1.9 basis points. Interestingly, the standard deviation also increases as the rating deteriorates. Over the sample period, the standard deviation is on the order of 25.3 to 809 basis points. There is evidence of extreme movements in each group as the 90% and 10% values are away from the mean by several times the standard deviation. Panel B has the mean values, by group and for the overall sample, of some country specific variables. Debt-to-reserves, debt-to-exports and political risk all increase in value as move down in rating to signal a worsening of a country’s situation. I expect

19

these variables to have on average higher values as we move form high to low ratings, and that is precisely what I find.

2.2.4

A model for sovereign spreads. I estimate the following equation for each bond observation in the sample:

∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Debt to foreign reserves ratioi,t + β2*∆Country risk measurei,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve level,t + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve (1) slope,t + β5*∆Local volatilityi,t-1 + β6*Local returnt-1 + β7*∆Years to maturityi,t + εi,t

Following earlier research, I estimate regressions on debt spread changes.15 To estimate this equation, I decided to use an OLS model with Newey-West adjusted errors.16 A priori, I expect the coefficients to have the signs described in Table 1. Table 3 shows the results of estimating equation (1) in four different rating groups. These groups are similar to those presented in Table 2, except that the first and second groups from that table were grouped together in Table 3. The model seems to have a good fit, as measured by R-squared measures, which range from 19% to 30%. For brevity, I will discuss only the results for the overall sample. The debt-to-reserves ratio and the political risk measure both have a positive coefficient
Some previous research has been conducted on spread levels, for instance, Houweling et. al. (2002). Cantor and Packer (1996) and Eichengreen and Moody (1998) run regressions on the log of the yield spread. 16 I experimented with several other methodologies. I estimated equation 1 using OLS fixed effects, grouping our sample by bond, by country, and by region. I also estimated FGLS (Feasible Generalized Least Squares), OLS with panel corrected standard errors and OLS with Huber/White standard error correction. All methodologies produced quantitatively and qualitatively similar results; however results were more consistent using OLS coefficients with Newey-West adjusted errors. Results obtained with other methods are not reported in this paper and are available from the author. 20
15

(as expected) and are highly significant. Two lags of the political risk variable were included to account for the possibility of autocorrelation in this variable. These variables measure the ability to service debt and the overall political and economic environment of the issuer. An increase in political risk would signal higher instability and/or the possibility of expropriation and therefore should be associated with a higher spread. An increase in the debt-to-reserves ratio could be caused by an increase in the nominal debt amount or a decrease in international reserves, both of which should be associated with a higher spread. I also find that the coefficient estimates when using debt-to-exports in place of debt-to-reserves are not significant and have the wrong sign, so they are not reported. The coefficient associated to the U.S. Treasury yield curve level is negative and highly significant. Previous work had obtained insignificant positive coefficients (Cline and Barnes, 1997; Min, 1998; and Kamin and Von Kleist, 1999), and significant negative coefficients (Eichengreen and Mody, 1998). One interpretation of these negative coefficients is that, as interest rates go up, low rated countries find it less convenient to issue debt. Also, most structural models predict a negative relation because higher interest rates increase the drift of the process followed by the firm’s (in this case, country’s) value.17 A higher firm (country) value should be associated with a smaller spread and hence the negative sign. The coefficient associated with the U.S. Treasury slope term is always positive and significant, however, this is unexpected. Following the expectations theory of interest rates, a positively sloped yield curve signals higher future rates, which should be
17

Longstaff and Schwartz (1995). 21

associated with smaller spreads. Two reasons for this effect were previously mentioned. On one hand, we could expect the average quality of sovereign issuers to increase because low rated countries decide not to issue debt and this increase in overall quality puts downward pressure on spreads. On the other hand, higher rates will mechanically increase the distance to default in most Merton-based structural models which would also lead to a decrease in spreads. Local volatility is positive and highly significant, as expected. The local stock return has the expected (negative) sign and also is significant. The coefficient on changes of years to maturity is negative and not significant. I interpret this coefficient as evidence of the existence of a survivorship bias in which only relatively better countries make it to issue longer term debt, as explained by Helwege and Turner (1999) for the domestic case. It may be the case that investors think that in the case of a default, short term maturities are more risky than long term maturities since countries will usually default first on issues with closer maturities, making short term issues riskier. The lack of consistent cross-default clauses in some countries allows them to default or re-schedule debt payments selectively. Finally, for a country facing financial difficulties, a longer time horizon will provide the necessary time and maneuvering room to enact reforms and measures that will allow the country to return to fiscal stability, effectively making longer term debt less risky.

2.3

Debt spreads of domestic bonds. In this section, I review the relevant literature on U.S. dollar denominated

domestic bond spreads (section 3.1). Then I discuss the variables used in the computation
22

of domestic spreads (section 3.2), and I describe the characteristics of the domestic bond sample (section 3.3). I then proceed to estimate domestic debt spreads, discuss the results and compute residuals (section 3.4).

2.3.1 Domestic debt literature. The first structural model of risky debt is by Merton (1974). In this paper, Merton used an option pricing approach to include systematic and idiosyncratic risk in the calculation of the value of a put option on the firm’s value.18 In Merton’s model a firm defaults on its debt when its assets are not enough to cover its outstanding obligations. Default occurs when the firm’s value crosses from above a given threshold. The initial model allowed for default only at maturity and was extended by Black and Cox (1976) to allow for earlier default. Another extension was introduced by Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) by incorporating stochastic interest rates. Strategic default was introduced in models by Anderson and Sundaresan (1996) and Mella-Barral and Perraudin (1997). Modeling endogenous corporate default was introduced by Leland (1994) and Leland and Toft (1996). As these models need a fair amount of abstraction to achieve tractability, it is not surprising that they prove to be difficult to implement and then almost always with disappointing results (see Eom, Helwege and Huang (2003) for a review of the problems and limitations faced by structural models). This lack of results motivated some researchers to try another approach, using reduced-form models, or intensity-based models. These models ignore firm-specific

18

Specifically, Merton’s (1974) model states that a risky zero-coupon bond has the same payoff structure as a risk-free bond plus being short a put option on the firm’s value with a strike price equal to the face value of the debt. 23

fundamentals and do not explicitly model the processes followed by the firm’s leverage and/or value. Reduced-form models assume an unpredictable default process governed by an exogenous hazard rate. For instance, Duffie and Singleton (1997) use a generic point process and Lando (1998) uses a Cox process. Through extensive calibration, reduced form models generally produced better results at explaining and forecasting yield spreads than structural models. More recently, Elton, Gruber, Agrawal and Mann (2001) tried to explain corporate spreads using explanatory factors that included the probability of default, the loss given default, and the difference in tax regimes. Collin-Dufresne et. al. (2001) tried to explain changes in the credit risk portion of corporate spreads using data on spot rates, reference yield curve slope, firms leverage and volatility, estimates for jumps in the firm’s value and a proxy for the general business climate. Both papers, the former being more of a reduced-form approach and the latter using a variables specified by a structural framework, find similar results in that their models left a large portion of the crosssectional time variation of spreads unexplained, and further, they find that a single common unknown factor could explain up to 75% of the residual variation. Huang and Huang (2003) calibrate several classes of structural models to be consistent with the recent history of observed defaults. They find that different models could generate the wide range of credit spreads observed in the recent past, and further they provide some evidence about the predictive power of such models.

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2.3.2 Theoretical determinants of domestic debt spreads. Structural models of domestic debt have identified variables that affect debt spreads. In a manner consistent with the previous section, I put together three lists of variables that should capture most of the debt spread variation. As with the sovereign case, the first list also contains bond-specific variables, i.e., variables that vary within bond issues, e.g. years to maturity. The second list contains variables that vary from firm to firm but are the same for all bonds issued by firm (firm-specific variables). The third list contains variables that are the same for all bonds in the domestic sample, and try to capture changes in the U.S. interest rate term structure as well as changes in the U.S. economic climate.

2.3.2.1 Bond-specific variables. The bond-specific variable is years to maturity. The same arguments from section 2.2.1 apply here.

2.3.2.2 Firm-specific variables. I choose two firm-specific variables following the basic spirit of Merton’s model as presented in Stulz (2003). The first variable, leverage, has been used in previous research as a successful proxy of a firm’s financial health. The second variable is the volatility of a firm’s equity. A priori I expect a negative relation between each of these two variables and debt spreads, since an increase on any of them would make default more likely.

25

2.3.2.3 U.S. interest rate term structure. The domestic sample is denominated in U.S. dollars. Therefore, I care about factors that affect the U.S. yield curve term structure. Similar to the sovereign case, I use the U.S. yield curve level and slope as explanatory factors of the term structure (Litterman and Scheinkman, 1991). The arguments used in section 2.2.3 also apply here. Since I collect data only on bonds issued by U.S. industrial firms, I assume their exposure to the economic cycle is better captured by the S&P 500 index and therefore I collect monthly returns for this index. Table 4 presents the predicted relations between the variables previously mentioned and debt spreads.

2.3.3. Data description. The domestic sample contains all U.S. denominated bonds issued by industrial domestic firms. Applying the same selection criteria as those for the sovereign sample, I end up with 2,493 live and 604 dead bonds issued by 649 different firms during the January 1990 – January 2003 period for a total of 71,831 usable observations. This sample differs from previous studies in at least three aspects. First, it covers a larger time period than previous research. Second, I collect data for the entire universe of bonds issued in U.S. dollars by domestic industrial firms, not only for those traded by any specific group of investors. Third, the Fixed Income Database used in earlier studies like Collin-Dufresne et al (2001) mainly covers investment grade bonds, and so results obtained for high-yield bonds using that database might not be representative (Huang and Kong, 2003).

26

Debt spreads are computed in the same way as for the sovereign sample. Years to maturity data is collected for each bond. The measures of the U.S. Treasury yield curve’s level and slope are the same as the ones used in the previous section. The proxy for the U.S. economic climate is the S&P 500 total return index from Datastream. To compute the leverage ratio I collect book value of debt from COMPUSTAT (items 45 and 51) and the market value of equity from CRSP. Leverage ratios are then computed, following earlier literature, as:

( Book Value of Debt ) ( Book Value of Debt + Equity Market Value)

Table 5 shows descriptive statistics for the domestic sample. Although it would be desirable to classify this sample also by rating, however, Datastream’s coverage of ratings is sketchy at best. In light of that problem, I decided to classify the data according to leverage. As can be seen from the leverage columns of panel A, credit spreads increase as firms become more levered. Further, the standard deviation of credit spreads also increases with leverage. Data on the ‘No leverage data’ column refers to firms that are either private or are not covered by COMPUSTAT. The presence of heavy tails in each category is evident from the dispersion observed in the max, min, 10% and 90% values, where the 10% and 90% values are several standard deviations away from the mean.

27

2.3.4

A model for domestic debt spreads.

I estimated the following equation for domestic bonds:

∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Leverage ratioi,t + β2*∆Stock return volatilityi,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*∆S&P index returnt-1 + β6*∆Years to maturityi,t + εi,t
(2)

The results from these regressions are reported on Table 6. I estimated equation (2) for each leverage group and for the overall sample. Clearly, the model performs better in the highly leveraged group, as evidenced by the higher R-squared value. This result is consistent with previous studies which find that structural models perform better for longer maturity, lower rated sub-groups. As with the sovereign case, I will only go over the overall sample results. On the coefficient of changes in years to maturity, the negative but insignificant coefficient is consistent with previous results of Helwege and Turner (1999) and with the basic Merton (1974) model predictions, as described in Stulz (2003), for conservative levels of debt. The coefficients of lagged leverage and stock return volatility –contemporaneous and lagged- are positive and strongly significant. The sign of the U.S. yield curve level is also as expected and similar to the results obtained by earlier studies. In contrast to the sovereign sample, nothing conclusive can be said about the sign and significance of the coefficient estimated for changes of the U.S. Treasury slope is significantly positive in every specification. Finally, the S&P index return is significant and with a negative sign, just as predicted by the theory.
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2.4.

Analyzing the common factor.

As previously mentioned, the goal of this chapter is to investigate whether the common factor identified in domestic credit spread changes also is present in sovereign debt spread changes. In this section, I establish the existence of a common factor in both the residuals from the regressions on sovereign and domestic debt spread changes.

2.4.1

Establishing the existence of common factors.

In order to investigate whether common factors are present in the unexplained variation in spreads, I use principal components analysis. This is a statistical technique for data reduction whose objective is to find unit-length linear combinations of the original variables that capture the maximum variance. I apply principal component analysis to the residuals obtained from the regressions discussed in previous sections to verify whether the unexplained variation is truly noise or whether there is evidence of a common factor driving this unexplained portion of the variance of credit spread changes.19 The first problem faced when applying principal components analysis is how to organize unbalanced panels in the most efficient form. Research in this area conducted by Boivin and Ng (2003) shows that more data is not always better when conducting this type of factor analysis. In fact, in their forecast exercise they show that factors extracted from as few as 40 variables could be more informative than factors extracted from all 147 series in their setup. Basically, their result obtains because of large cross-correlation in
19

The serial correlation of the residuals from the regressions for sovereign yield changes is -0.1513 with p value of 0.2290 and 0.0068 with p value of 0.9345 for domestic yield changes. 29

errors and of small variability of the common components. Sadly, until today there is no guide as to what data should be included in a principal component analysis or what is the optimal number of series to include in this exercise. Recent work from Scherer and Avellaneda (2000) applies principal component analysis to eight variables only, effectively using one or two bonds per country in their study. While this might be a solution for the sovereign case where it is easier to identify benchmark bonds for each issuer, this is not feasible in the domestic sample. This sample has bonds from 649 different firms, and in many cases there are tens of bonds outstanding from a given firm. Also, applying principal component analysis to all the bonds in the domestic sample is not a good idea, since that would most certainly only increase the amount of statistical noise while adding very little or no new information at all. I decide to follow the approach implemented by Collin-Dufresne et. al. (2001) and create groups or ‘bins’ of data to efficiently summarize the information content of the residuals. I divide each sample (sovereign and domestic) in three maturity categories and three leverage (debt-to-reserves, in the sovereign case) categories, creating a total of nine ‘bins’ in each sample. Then, each observation is assigned to a bin. I estimate again equations (1) (for the sovereign bins) and (2) (for the domestic bins), compute the residuals, and calculate averages across residuals for each bin. Table 7 shows the correlation structure for the average domestic residuals (panel A), the average sovereign residuals (panel B) and for all averages –domestic and sovereign (panel C). The average correlation for the sovereign sample is 0.75, and 0.87 for the domestic sample. To investigate whether the relatively high correlations found in panel A and C are caused by a common component, I proceed to conduct principal component analysis.
30

Table 8 shows the results of applying this eigenvalue decomposition to the bins constructed earlier. Panel A shows strong evidence of the existence of a common factor in sovereign spreads. The first common factor explains 76.09% of the variation, as shown by the proportion of the first eigenvalue. The second common component explains the remaining variance that is orthogonal to the first common component. It is difficult to interpret the second component because its eigenvalue is well below the value of the first eigenvalue and is much closer to the third eigenvalue. However, if this is to be interpreted as evidence of a second common factor, it would explain an additional 20.37%. According to Scherer and Avellaneda (2000), a number between 65% and 80% for the first common component would be considered as indicative of strong co-movement characterized by a high correlation in the spread changes. My results are consistent with their result – obtained with spreads computed from Brady issues for selected countries – in which they found evidence of two common factors driving most of the variation in spread changes. Panel B of Table 8 also shows strong evidence of the existence of a common factor to all domestic spreads. The first common component explains 86.23% of the variance. There is weak evidence on the existence of a second component which explains an additional 8.53% of the variance. The existence of a first common factor that explains such a large portion of the variance is consistent with previous research, e.g., CollinDufresne et. al. (2001). The existence of a second common factor has not been documented for domestic debt before, but this could be due to the fact that I am using a larger dataset and that I am looking at a longer time period that earlier studies.

31

Finally, panel C has the results of looking at the common components of both groups of bonds, sovereign and domestic. Interestingly, I find no evidence suggestive of the existence of a common factor to both groups of bonds. The first common factor explains 42.06% of the residual variance of spread changes, while the second factor explains an additional 33.12%. As mentioned before, Scherer and Avellaneda (2000) consider a value of 65% for the first common component as the lower boundary for a weak coupling, or correlation, between spread changes. The result I obtain is puzzling because if the market for dollar-denominated credit-risky bonds is integrated, and if the common components I find can be explained by liquidity shocks, then such shocks should be pervasive across markets (Chen, Lesmond, and Wei, 2002; Chordia, Sarkar, and Subrahmanyam, 2003; Kamara, 1994). According to panel C, this is not what is happening. In order to shed more light on the issue of whether the common factor identified in both samples is indeed the same in both groups, I extract the first and second common components of each sample to compare them. These common factors are plotted in figure 1. The interpretation of the units in the y-axis is as follows. To compute the principal components, I analyzed the correlation matrix. This is equivalent to all the variables to having mean 0 and standard deviation 1. Thus, the common factors are expressed in terms of these standardized variables. Loosely speaking, the units on the y-axis in both figures can be interpreted as percentage points. The pattern seems to suggest a lead-lag relation between the first factor from the domestic sample and the first factor extracted from the sovereign sample. Figure 2 shows the second common component extracted from both samples. The figure seems to suggest
32

a weak contemporaneous relation. These issues will be investigated further in the next sections.

2.4.2

Explanatory power of the extracted components.

In this section, I examine whether these common factors have explanatory power over the cross-section of debt spreads for the other type of debt. I estimate again equations (1) and (2) including in each equation the two common components extracted from the other group, i.e., I include the factors extracted from the sovereign sample into the domestic sample regression and vice versa. Results are shown on Table 9. First, I will talk about the sovereign regression when the domestic common components are included. Looking at rating categories, the explanatory power of the equation for the lower rated group (B- to C) increases, as measured by the increases of Rsquared statistic from 22% to 31%. This sub-sample is the one with the least number of observations. There is, however, no gain in explanatory power in the overall sample. Further, in every case only the contemporaneous value of the first component from the domestic sample is significant. In the case of the second component extracted from the domestic sample, only the lagged value of the second factor is significant for all subgroups. The domestic sample has strikingly different results. In this case, I included in the domestic spread changes equation both common components extracted from the sovereign sample. The explanatory power of the overall equation is increased almost by 30%, from an R-square value of 0.09 to 0.12. The only significant common component coefficient is the contemporaneous effect of the first common component from the
33

sovereign sample. The explanatory power in most domestic sub-samples increases by a similar percentage as the R-squared value of the overall sample. Overall, I interpret these results as evidence of the existence of a relation between the first common component extracted from the sovereign spread changes and domestic debt spread changes. The dynamics of the relation between the common components extracted from each type of debt is investigated in the next section.

2.5.

Looking into the information content of the common factors.

The principal component analysis conducted neither provides information on the dynamics of the factors identified nor provides an economic interpretation of them. In this section I investigate the contemporaneous and inter-temporal relation between factors and also investigate whether these factors might be capturing liquidity and/or supply/demand shocks.

2.5.1

Lead-lag relations.

The picture shown in figure 1 suggests the possibility of an intertemporal relation between the first factor extracted from the sovereign sample and the first factor extracted from the domestic sample. Using a vector-autoregression approach, I investigate the possibility of one of these markets acting as an early signal for potential problems that can affect the bond market in general. Previous work like Joutz and Maxwell (2002) and Cifarelli and Paladino (2002) have applied VAR procedures in a credit spread framework to study the relation between credit spreads from different countries. More recently, Longstaff, Mithal and Neis (2003) applied a VAR framework to study the relation
34

between bond and credit derivatives markets. To explore the lead-lag relation between the sovereign and the domestic factors, the following simple vector-autoregression specification is used:
FacSovt = a1 + ∑ β1 j FacSovt − j + ∑ γ 1 j FacDomt − j + δ 1 X t +ε 1
j =1
k

k

k

j =1
k

FacDomt = a2 + ∑ β 2 j FacSovt − j + ∑ γ 2 j FacDomt − j + δ 2 X t +ε 2
j =1 j =1

Table 10 shows the results for the simple case when k is equal to two. Both the Akaike Information and Schwartz criteria suggest that a VAR system of two lags is warranted by the data. I first run the VAR model without exogenous variables to have an initial idea of the lead-lag structure. For brevity, I only report the R-squared value for each equation and also because the basic lead-lag relation is unchanged when the exogenous variables are included. I then run the VAR model with exogenous variables. These exogenous variables are chosen to capture liquidity and supply/demand effects. Most previous studies dealing with credit spreads specifically abstain from liquidity effects because of the lack of consensus on how to measure and model liquidity premium affecting spreads (Chen, Lesmond and Wei, 2003). Longstaff, Mithal and Neis (2003) study the consistency of the price of credit risk between the bond and derivatives markets. They find that the implied cost of credit is higher in the bond market than in the credit derivative market, and advance a possible explanation for this based on the existence of a liquidity component in debt spreads. Their measure for this liquidity

35

premium is the difference between the price of credit risk in the bond and credit derivative markets.20 Since all the bonds in the sample are denominated in U.S. dollars and they all trade in U.S. financial markets, I am interested in variables that measure the overall liquidity in these markets. I use two general measures of liquidity. The first proxy is the difference in yield between the on-the-run21 thirty year U.S. Treasury bond and the most recent off-the-run bond is computed. Off-the-run bonds are bonds that whilst not being the most recently issued in a certain maturity range, are very similar to the on-the-run issue in all respects. Therefore, any differences in prices –and therefore in yields- is usually considered to be due to liquidity. As liquidity dries up, this difference is expected to decrease. The second proxy for general liquidity in the market is the net borrowed reserves from the Federal Reserve,22 which is considered a measure of the monetary stance. A loose monetary policy usually implies an increase in liquidity via the decrease of credit constraints. Harvey and Huang (2002) showed that the Federal Reserve, through its ability of changing the money supply, impacts the trading of bonds and currencies. Following Chordia, Sarkar and Subrahmanyan (2003) I define net borrowed reserves as total borrowing minus extended credit minus excess reserves, divided by total reserves. Since borrowed reserves represent the amount that banks are short to satisfy the Fed’s requirements, a lower value of this measure indicates looser monetary conditions.
Collin-Dufresne et. al. (2001) point that Chakravarty and Sarkar (1999), Hotchkiss and Ronen (1999) and Schultz (1999) found evidence of the existence of relatively high transaction costs and low volume in bond markets, and therefore, Collin-Dufresne et. al. (2001) interpret these results as evidence of a liquidity premium. 21 An on-the-run bond is the most recently issued (and typically the most liquid) government bond with a given maturity. 22 See Chordia, Sarkar and Subrahmanyan (2003). 36
20

To capture possible supply/demand shocks I collect data from the Investment Company Institute (ICI) on the monthly flows into mutual funds. ICI’s statistics are collected from approximately 8,300 mutual funds, and are divided in flows into equity funds and bond funds. These measures could potentially capture changes in investor’s attitudes towards risk or any other supply/demand shocks unrelated to overall market liquidity.23 Table 10 reports the results of the VAR model with the exogenous variables. It seems that the sovereign factors have explanatory power over the domestic factors but not the other way around. I will discuss each one of the four equations in the VAR model, starting with the first common domestic factor. The second lag of the first sovereign factor is significant in the regression for the first domestic factor. The flows to stocks and flows to funds variables are negative and significant. This equation is the one with the smallest gain in R-squared when including the exogenous variables. The first sovereign factor seems to be slightly autoregressive from the barely significant coefficient for its own first lag. Coefficients for the domestic factor lags are not significant, while all the coefficients for the exogenous variables are highly significant. It seems as if this factor is capturing both liquidity and demand shocks as implied by the coefficients associated with the exogenous variables. This equation also has the highest increase in explanatory power, since the R-squared increased from 0.05 to 0.37 when the exogenous variables are added to the specification.

23

Of course, we have to consider the possibility of endogeneity in our variables, since for instance, a change in the Fed’s stance could make certain markets more attractive and influence the flows into those markets. No effort is made at this time to address this concern. 37

The second domestic factor equation shows significant coefficients for the first lag of both sovereign factors as well as for its own second lag. The flow variables come out both significant, as well the net reserves coefficient. The second sovereign factor equation has the highest R-squared value, at 0.67. Second lag coefficients for both sovereign factors are significant, as are both lags of the second domestic factor. The flow variables and the net reserves measure are also highly significant. Overall, the exogenous variables of the VAR do capture a significant portion of the time variation of the factors extracted from the sovereign and the domestic sample. There also is evidence in support of the aforementioned result that sovereign common components are related to domestic spread changes but not the other way around, because the lags of the sovereign common components have significant coefficients in the equations for the domestic common components but the domestic common components do not appear to have explanatory power in the equations for sovereign common factors. Also, there is evidence of an inter-temporal relation going from the first sovereign common component to the first domestic common component. This is expected from figure 1. I find that all four common factors are related to the flows of money going into equity and bond funds, as measured by the Investment Company Institute (ICI), while only the second common component of each group is related to a macroeconomic measure of liquidity, namely the net borrowed reserves form the Federal Reserve. These results are consistent with previous literature that has concluded that the unexplained variation in credit spreads could be caused by liquidity and supply/demand shocks.

38

The pattern displayed by the first common factors in figure 1 raises the concern that my VAR results could be driven by the large spike observed around October 1998. As a robustness check, I re-estimate the system excluding the observations for September, October and November 1998.24 As expected, the significant loading of the second lag of the first sovereign common component onto the first domestic common component disappears. Interestingly, however, the coefficient associated with the second lag of the second sovereign factor now becomes significant, whereas it was not significant before. The explanatory power of the exogenous variables and the overall Rsquared values of the system remain unchanged. Overall, the evidence suggest that the asymmetric relation observed between the first common factor from the domestic sample and the common factors from the sovereign sample remains even after excluding the large shock of October 1998 from the sample.

2.6.

Conclusions and future work

The availability in recent years of a panel of observations on sovereign bond yields provides with a unique instrument whose dynamics can shed some light in the study of the determinants of debt for countries and firms. In this chapter I identified the existence of a two strong common components, unrelated to credit risk and distinct for each type of debt, in credit spreads of sovereign and domestic bonds. Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, I find that domestic spreads are related to the lagged first common component of sovereign spreads. While there is no contemporaneous common component in bond spreads, there seems to be a common component when focusing on
24

Results are not reported but are available upon request. 39

the dynamics of these spreads. Traditional macro liquidity variables are related to the common components found in domestic and sovereign spread changes. I will conduct further research to shed light on why the relation between domestic corporate credit spreads and sovereign credit spreads is not contemporaneous, as expected in a fully integrated market. This could be due to differences in liquidity and infrequent trading or maybe it reflects a market inefficiency. My results also are surprising since they suggest that the cost of debt for emerging markets depends mostly on country and emerging-market specific considerations, and this is surprising when considering results obtained by previous literature emphasizing the impact of developed country developments for capital flows into emerging markets. In this chapter, I contributed to the literature by showing that current structural models of debt spreads can be improved if these findings are incorporated in them. To the extent that investors depend on these models to hedge the credit risk of their bond positions, they can benefit from a better understanding of the determinants of credit spreads changes. My research also shows that, after taking into account the dynamics of the common components in credit spreads across debt types, the cost of debt for firms and countries depends to some extent on shocks that affect all types of debt.

40

CHAPTER 3

LATIN AMERICAN AND U.S. EQUITIES RETURN LINKAGES: AN EXTREME VALUE APPROACH 3.1. Introduction

The last fifteen years of the past century witnessed an important increase in financial and economic integration between Latin American countries and developed countries. Due to geographical and trade considerations, most of the ongoing integration took place between Latin America and the United States. This is not to say that integration with other developed countries, for instance countries members of the European Union, is not significant, but rather that integration with the U.S. happens to be more important both in the public perception and in relative terms. One of the many benefits of this increased integration is the newly available supply of financial assets exhibiting low correlation with the U.S. financial markets. Mean-variance optimizing investors looking to diversify their portfolios have poured vast amounts of resources into Latin American stock markets as they were being liberalized. Among the new instruments available to U.S. investors pursuing the benefits of international diversification were closed-end funds, open-end funds, American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), and foreign indices mimicking funds.
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However, there was a dark side to financial integration and openness. Financial crisis, in the form of negative financial markets shocks, also moved easily across borders. In addition, the propagation of financial crisis was facilitated by the newly increased correlations. This phenomenon, usually referred to as financial contagion, has attracted much attention in recent years from researchers. Recent experiences with the Mexican devaluation of 1994 – “the tequila effect”-, the 1997 East Asian crisis, the 1998 Russian meltdown -“the vodka effect”- and the subsequent Brazilian devaluation –the “samba effect”-, which sent most financial markets around the world tumbling, stressed the importance for both practitioners and academics of studying and identifying the forces behind these phenomena. This chapter addresses the behavior of linkages between financial assets using a statistical technique known as Extreme Value Theory (EVT). EVT is the study of outliers or extremal events. Since large movements in returns are usually characteristic of financial crisis, and these large movements can be considered as outliers, the use of EVT seems to be warranted. This approach has several advantages. First among these are the well known results on asymptotic behavior of the distribution of very high quantiles. Second, no assumptions are needed about the true underlying distribution that originated data in the first place. Since financial contagion usually comes into scene during periods of very high distress, it is a natural area on which to use a technique that focuses on the tails of a distribution function. My results show that for the six emerging countries analyzed, only in the case of Mexico the correlations in the extreme are higher between the locally traded stocks and the S&P than for the corresponding ADRs and the S&P. This result suggest that the
42

contagion mechanism for Mexico is different than for the rest of the countries analyzed here, in that the shocks appear to be propagated directly into the Mexican stock exchange rather than through New York via the ADR issues trading there. Another finding This chapter contributes in the literature in a number of ways. First, it builds on the work of Longin (1996) and Longin and Solnik (2001) applying EVT in finance by examining the linkage between financial assets available to U.S. investors looking for international exposure before and after main events such as the 1995 Mexican crisis. Second, it adds to the growing literature on financial contagion by employing a more “appropriate” statistical technique for the often temporary but large movements in prices. Third, related to the first contribution, this chapter also contributes to the empirical asset pricing literature because of its focus on a relatively new statistical application to the transmission of information and prices. This is useful as sectors of the U.S. markets become more volatile. Fourth, this chapter contributes to the risk management literature. The basic analysis one EVT can easily applied to the other assets, such as energy-based and commodities derivatives, which also exhibit temporary but sharp price movements. This is important as the government contains to deregulate selective energy markets. Finally, it contributes to the research on international asset pricing and allocation. The analysis on U.S. and Latin American financial assets also is useful for professional international portfolio managers. The chapter is organized as follows: the next section discusses some basic results from Extreme Value Theory and how they are applied in a financial framework. Section III presents an empirical analysis of the data. In this section, bivariate extreme value measures are applied on six different country pairs between the U.S. S&P500 Index and
43

each of the following countries: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela. Section IV presents an extension of the analysis, searching for structural changes in linkages following the Mexican crisis. Section V concludes and outlines some ideas for future research.

3.2.

Literature Review

In recent years, extreme value theory techniques have been applied successfully to three related fields in finance: value at risk (VaR), the financial contagion literature and the literature that studies the return-volume relation. Brooks, et al (2005) test several EVT models by fitting them to different series of futures contracts in order to determine which model is more efficient for value at risk purposes. In an univariate analysis, they find that a model that treats the tail differently while at the same time incorporating information from the rest of the distribution yields superior results to a generic GARCH (1,1) model. Gencay and Selcuk (2004) apply univariate EVT to investigate performance of VaR models in emerging markets, documenting the thresholds and probabilities of stock crashes. Poon and Lin (2000) use univariate EVT to show that an internationally diversified portfolio will dominate a US portfolio. The reach that conclusion looking at probability of loss for each market using a tail index to study the distribution of returns. In a related exercise, Susmel (2001) applies the safety-first principle developed by Roy (1952) to compute levels of (negative) returns that would wipe out an investor’s wealth. He applies univariate EVT analysis to study the tail distribution of several Latin American markets. He finds that investors can benefit from inclusion of these markets in their portfolios –regardless the fatter tails exhibited by Latin American markets. His
44

results suggest an optimal 15% allocation to these markets. Hartmann, Straetmans, and de Vries (2001) study stock-bond contagion within and across five developed countries applying an innovative a non-parametric measure of dependence in the extremes of the return distributions. They find that simultaneous crashes in stock markets are twice as likely as simultaneous crashes in bond markets. Also, stock-bond and bond-stock contagion is equally as likely. Finally, cross-border linkages are very similar to national linkages. Qi (2001) focus is to answer whether unexpected volume provides information and therefore moves prices and to do this, he studies the return-volume relation in the tails using bivariate EVT. In almost all cases the results point to a positive correlation between absolute return and trading volume. This relation is not symmetric, i.e., it is stronger in the right tail than in the left tail. Reich and Wegmann (2002) analyze a sample of Swiss stocks in order to study the relation between market value and the relative bidask spread. Using bivariate EVT and using Streatmans’ non-parametric approach to extreme linkages they document that extreme movements in both variables are not independent. Marsch and Wagner (2004) use bivariate EVT to reject the null of independence in the extremes of returns and volume in five of seven developed countries in their sample. Further, they find that relation to be symmetrical only in the US, i.e., the same for negative and positive returns. Jondeau and Rockinger (2001) study stock returns in 20 countries using univariate EVT. Surprisingly, they cannot reject that the left and right tail indices are the same, and they cannot reject that the tail index is the same for all countries. They do find disparity with respect to where the extremes are located (i.e., a 10% price drop might not be an
45

extreme observation in every country). Poon, Rockinger and Tawn (2002) use nonparametric measures to identify and quantify tail dependence among international stock markets. Using data from 1968 to 2000 for US, UK, Germany, France and Japan they find left-tail dependence to be stronger that right tail dependence. They also document that these stock index returns do not exhibit asymptotic dependence. Schich (2002) looks at European stock indices (Germany, UK, France, Netherlands and Italy) from 1973 to 2001. Using Starica (2000) measure of dependence in a bivariate EVT framework he finds that measures of dependence have grown over time and are higher for negative than for positive returns. He also finds that the bivariate correlation with Germany is similar for all the countries in the sample. Chan-Lau, Mathieson and Yao (1998) study how contagion differs across countries. They conclude that contagion patterns differ significantly within and across regions, that Latin America shows the largest increases in contagion and that contagion is higher for negative returns than for positive returns. Several studies have focused on the study of firms within one country. Tolikas and Brown (2003) apply univariate EVT on individual Greek stocks and find that the tails have become less fat tailed over time. Brännäs, Shahiduzzaman and Simonsen (2002) also use univariate EVT to determine that the tails of Swedish stocks are better described using a Fréchet distribution. Gencay and Selcuk (2001) study overnight borrowing rates in an interbank money market in Turkey and describe the characteristics of the tail of their distribution. Straetmans, Verschoor, Wolff (2003) look at the U.S. stock markets before and after 9/11. They find no evidence for a structural change in downside risk measured before and after 9/11. They do find, though, that the probability of joint co-exceedances
46

over thresholds between different sectors and the market portfolio has risen when taking 9/11 as the sample midpoint.

3.2.1. The Univariate Case

Extreme value theory (EVT) has been extensively studied in mathematics and statistics. One of its earliest applications, and in fact one of the branches of science that motivated much of the work in EVT, is hydrology. Classical applications are the calculations for the optimal height of dykes in the Netherlands as well as the calculations of level of tides in the U.K. Engineers also are fond of EVT when it comes to calculate how resistant some structures are to wind and sea forces. In finance, EVT is a useful supplementary risk measure because it provides more appropriate distributions to fit extreme events and it has found a niche in value at risk (VaR) and insurance applications. Basically, EVT involves modeling the tail of a marginal distribution as well the dependence structure of extreme observations. This modeling of the asymptotic distribution can be done without making assumptions about the form of the original underlying distribution that produced the data in the first place. This is very desirable since the original distribution is generally unknown. Readers interested in a more technical discussion are encouraged to read the seminal work by Gumbel (1961). Since this chapter makes no attempt at contribution to the existing EVT theory, we will only go over the main results of the theory, highlighting the results that are important for our analysis. We will describe the main results of univariate EVT. Then building on those results, we will briefly explain the main results extending to bivariate EVT.
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For any time series, we can define extremes in two ways. The first approach is to divide the series in blocks of equal size and take the maxima (the analysis for the minima can be done by simply using the negative of the series) of each block. For instance, if we have daily returns for a period of many years, we can divide the data in annual semi annual blocks and then proceed to take the maximum value from each block. The other approach to define extremes is to define a high threshold and consider all observations that exceed the threshold. The first significant result is, for the first case (taking

maxima), that the asymptotic distribution of the maxima is shown -under certain conditions- to converge to a Gumbel, Fréchet or Weibull distribution. A standard form of these distributions is known as a Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV). The second significant result, for the threshold approach where one is interested in modeling the behavior of the exceedances, is that the limiting distribution is a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). We will now talk about the first approach. Let {X1,...,Xn} be a sequence of identically independent distributed random variables. The asymptotic distribution of a series of maxima (minima) has been shown (Fisher and Tippet, 1928; Gnedenko, 1943) to converge to a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of the form:

H (ξ ,µ ,σ )

⎧ exp( − [1 + ξ ( x − µ ) / σ ] −1/ξ ) ifξ ≠ 0 = ⎨ − ( x − µ )/σ ) ifξ = 0 ⎩ exp( − e

The parameters µ and σ represent, as usual, a scalar and a tendency. The parameter ξ is called the tail index and it is positively related to the thickness of the tail, i.e., the larger the tail index, the thicker the tail. Depending on the value of the tail index we have three possible scenarios: ξ >0 which corresponds to a Fréchet distribution, ξ =0
48

which represents a Gumbel distribution and ξ <0 which represents a Weibull distribution. Empirically, it seems to be the case that the distribution is the best fit for fat tailed financial series. The second approach, known in the literature as the POT (peaks over thresholds) approach, involves estimating the conditional distribution once a high threshold is reached. Let Fu be the distribution of exceedances of X over a threshold u, such that
F u ( x ) = P( X − u ≤ x X > u )

The determination of the threshold u is not trivial and will be briefly addressed further ahead. For now, we will only mention that it is subject to minimizing the mean squared error in the parameter estimates. If we set a high threshold, you get a less reliable estimate due to the lack of data. On the other side, if we set a threshold to low, you get more precise, albeit biased, estimates since we included some points that did not belong in the tail. Once the threshold has been determined, we can write
F u ( x ) ≈ G ξ , β ( u ) ( x ), u → ∞

where
⎧ ⎛ ξx⎞ ⎪1 − ⎜ 1 + ⎟ Gξ ,β ( u ) ( x ) = ⎨ β ⎠ ⎝ ⎪ 1 − e − x/β ⎩
− 1/ ξ

ifξ ≠ 0 ifξ = 0

This result shows how the conditional distribution Fu is approximated by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The case where ξ = 0 gives us the exponential distribution. Any value of ξ > -0.5 is considered a fat tailed distribution.

49

Application of EVT requires some previous analysis to make sure the data exhibits fat tails, justifying the use of EVT. In this early stage analysis we usually perform a visual inspection of the data with the help of Q-Q plots and mean excess function graphs. A mean excess function graph describes the expected overshoot of a threshold given that an exceedance occurs. Fat tailed distributions show mean excess functions tending towards infinity for high thresholds u (linear shape with positive slope). As mentioned before, the choice of a threshold is subject to the usual trade off between variance and bias. One solution would be to use a mean excess graph and choose a threshold that yields a reasonable linear shape. Another –and most common solution– is to calculate the value of the Hill estimator. The Hill estimator is a maximum likelihood estimator for a GPD and it is a very popular estimator of ξ. Because the Hill estimator is a maximum likelihood estimator, we know that the parameter values are chosen to maximize the joint probability density of the observations.

3.2.2. The Bivariate Case

The first problem faced in extending EVT to a bivariate case is that such extension is not straightforward. The reason is that in higher order Euclidean space there is no standard notion of order and thus no standard notion of extremes (Embrechts, et. al., 1999). The current multivariate EVT allows only for low dimensional problems. Truly multivariate EVT is not under the current theory reach. Longin (1999) established that the joint distribution of extreme marginal distributions is not necessarily the distribution of the extremes for an aggregate position. Still, the bivariate estimation is done in two parts: univariate estimation of tail indices first, followed by the estimation of a “uniformised”
50

dependency function. Even though no natural parametric family exists for the dependence function, Longin and Solnik (2001) proposed the use of a logistic dependence function to fit the joint tails in a bivariate EVT framework. The logistic dependence function was first proposed by Gumbel and therefore is also referred to in the literature as a Gumbel dependence function. This is its functional form:
Dl ( y1 , y2 ) = ( y1 −1/α + y 2 −1/α ) α

The main reason for using this dependence function is that the dependence coefficient α is related to the correlation coefficient of extremes, ρ, via the following functional form:

ρ = 1− α 2
Summarizing the bivariate case, we will first get univariate estimates for each distribution, then fit the dependence function. As we use different thresholds to calculate the tail indices, we will also get different values of ρ. This property is crucial in that it will allow us to calculate in a straightforward manner how the correlation changes as we move further into the tails.

3.3.

Data

We collected daily data from Datastream for the period between 12/29/1989 and 12/29/2000 --2872 days-- for six Latin American countries and the U.S. The countries are Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela. For each Latin American country, we collected the return index of the local stock market and for every live ADR issue trading in the U.S. We also collected the return index of the S&P 500. For every asset, log returns in dollars were obtained. Also, an equally weighted basket of ADRs for
51

each country was calculated. ADRs were chosen because they represent an alternative to investors who want to get foreign stock market exposure. Table 11 shows the summary statistics of the variables. The next step was to conduct an exploratory data analysis or visual inspection of each series, two for each country plus the S&P index. Through the use of Q-Q plots and mean excess graphs we verified that the series exhibit fat tails and we got initial ranges for the tail indices. The Q-Q plot (graph of quantiles) helps to assess the goodness of fit of data to a parametric model. The more linear the Q-Q plot, the better the goodness of fit. It is also helpful because on it outliers can easily be detected. The following is the mathematical characterization of a Q-Q plot:
⎧ ⎫ −1 ⎛ n − k + 1 ⎞ ⎨ X k ,n , F ⎜ ⎟ , k = 1,..., n⎬ ⎝ n ⎠ ⎩ ⎭

Figures 3 to 5 show the Q-Q plots for the left and right tail of the Mexican equity dollar return, the Mexican ADR equally weighted portfolio and the S&P500 index. In all of them the presence of fat tails is obvious based on visual inspection. The next step of the exploratory analysis was to graph the mean excess function e(u). e(u) is the mean excess over the threshold u. As discussed above, it describes the expected overshoot of a threshold given that an exceedance occurs. Fat tailed distributions show e(u) tending towards infinity for high threshold u (linear shape with positive slope).

52

This is exactly the pattern that is observed on figures 6 to 8 for the same variables as in the Q-Q plots. Mathematically, e(u) is:

e( u ) = E ( x − u X > u )
and the plot is given by the points in:

{X
available from the author.

k ,n

, en ( X k ,n ), k = 1,..., n

}

The complete set of Q-Q plots and mean excess graphs for all variables is

As outlined in the previous section, univariate analysis is a pre-requisite of bivariate analysis. An interesting product of the univariate analysis is the possibility of calculating probabilities for out of sample events. In plain terms, we can calculate for instance, given a 20 year time series of daily returns, the maximum loss that is to be exceeded every x years. McNeil (1997) has a very good example on this. However, this chapter is interested in asset linkages, and therefore we will not talk about the conditional univariate probabilities of exceeding a certain threshold. Our final goal is to be able to make inferences on the pattern displayed by the correlation in the extremes, using a framework à la Longin and Solnik (2001). Our exercise here is to calculate pairwise correlations between the S&P and the local domestic stock indices and compare these correlations with the correlations obtained from another pair wise calculation using the S&P and a basket of ADRs. Since in theory an investor can get the same international exposure from buying shares in the local stock markets than from buying ADRs in the U.S., we would not expect to find any differences in the behavior of correlations as we move further into the tails of the marginal distributions. Curiously, this
53

seems not to be the case for some countries considered like the most representative of economic and financial liberalization, namely Mexico, Chile and Brazil. Figures 2 to 8 show the main product of this chapter. Each graph shows how extreme correlations (measured in the vertical axis) change value as I increase the threshold used to obtain the sample (measured in the horizontal axis). Points to the right of the vertical axis show us the behavior of the positive -right- tail, whereas points to the left of the vertical axis show the correlations in the negative -left- tail. As just mentioned, Mexico, Chile and Brazil seems to show asymmetric correlations which we think are worth further research. Colombia seems promising but the lack of data makes the inference process dubious. Finally, it is also worth investigating what is it (or was?) about the Argentinean market that make it behave in such a “well behaved” form during the period in question. In the ideal case of bivariate normal behavior, we would expect to see a well behaved bell shape. However, some of the countries offer some evidence of increased correlations in the negative tails, consistent with all the previous work on financial contagion. Whether this increased negative extreme correlations are caused by liquidity problems, heteroskedastic time series or some other explanation is beyond the scope of this work. For now, we will just show that correlations display an asymmetric behavior and that S&P - ADR correlations do not always behave in the same way as S&P - local index correlations. We consider this result significant and we hope that further research will allow us to draw conclusions about whether the transmission mechanism of financial crisis goes through the U.S. stock markets -via ADRs- or moves directly to the local stock markets.
54

3.4.

A Small Test for the Mexican Pairs.

Since the Mexican pairs displayed differences both between left and right tail correlations and between S&P - ADRs and S&P - local stock index, we decided to use this country to test whether the extreme correlations changed after the 1995 Mexican crisis. Figures 9 and 10 show the experiment. We divided the sample in two, the first sample going from 12/29/1989 to 12/31/1994 and the second sample running from 1/3/1995 to 12/29/2000. Absent some formal test, we limit the analysis to a visual inspection of the behavior of the extreme correlations. At first sight, it seems that the asymmetric pattern exhibited by the whole sample is driven primarily by the post 1995 period. Let us be very clear about the fragility of any assumption stated in these sections. As mentioned before, extreme value parameters depend heavily on the size of the sample, namely the extreme observations. Dividing the original sample in two probably did hurt the accuracy of the estimates. More work on this area is in progress and it will be included in future versions. However, the visual pattern is suggestive of evidence of changes in the value of extreme correlations.

3.5.

Concluding remarks

This work is still in its very early stages. However, some promising results are already showing. Applying bivariate extreme value techniques to pairs formed by Latin American local stock indices vs. the S&P and Latin American ADRs vs. the S&P we found visual evidence of non-bivariate normal behavior. More formal Wald test are in the agenda for future research. Also, we neglected in this chapter a third channel through
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which a U.S. investor can gain foreign exposure: country-funds. We intend to include pairs formed by country-funds vs. the S&P and compare the behavior of their extreme correlations with the ones already obtained and check whether they can offer more clues about the transmission mechanism of financial shocks. Finally, the last point in the research agenda involves a departure from the Gumbel logistic dependence function. Hartmann, Straetmanns and de Vries (2001) show that other dependence functions do a much better job at fitting the joint marginal extreme distributions. Since the only foundation for the use of a Gumbel dependence function was its ease of interpretation, it is certainly worth the effort to check whether other dependence functions do a better job fitting this sample of Latin American countries. The rationale for studying other dependency functions is as follows. Blyth (1996) and Shaw (1997) have made the point that linear correlation cannot capture the non linear dependence relationships that exist between many real world risk factors. They point that the use of correlation as we commonly do is ok when risks have a multivariate normal distribution, jointly. This is, when the underlying process is governed by elliptical distributions, i.e., distributions whose density is constant on ellipsoids and whose contour lines of the density surfaces are ellipses in a two dimension representation. However, they point that the use of correlation is not ok when we are outside the elliptical world because marginal distributions and correlation do not determine the joint distribution. Other important facts in this non-elliptical case are that perfectly dependent variables do not necessarily have a correlation of 1 and vice versa, and zero correlation is not equal to independence. Finally, it is important to recall that correlation is only defined when the variances of risks are finite.
56

The aforementioned facts provide with the following game plan for future research. We can, for instance, use rank correlation, i.e., the linear correlation of probability transformed variables. It still is very limited, since the structure of dependence is not fully described and it cannot be easily manipulated. The use of copulas comes as a natural alternative. Copulas are a way of trying to extract the dependence structure from the joint distribution. For instance, a joint distribution can be written as F(x1,..., xn) = C(F1(x1),...Fn(xn)), where

Cβ (u, v ) = exp[ − {( − log u) 1/ β + ( − log v ) 1/ β } β ]
and C is a copula function can be thought of as a multivariate distribution function with standard uniform marginal distributions. C is the dependence structure of F. This approach has the advantage of not summarizing dependence in a single number (which can be a dangerous simplification) and rather utilizes a model of the dependence structure to provide with more info. More work in this area is needed and projected as future extensions to the present work.

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CHAPTER 4 THE EFFECT OF SOVEREIGN CREDIT RATING CHANGES ON EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

4.1.

Introduction

In this chapter, we study the effect of sovereign credit rating changes on the cross section of locally traded firms. Standard and Poor’s defines a credit rating as “a current opinion of the creditworthiness of an obligor with respect to a specific financial obligation, a specific class of financial obligations, or a specific financial program.”25 A sovereign credit rating, then, reflects the rating agency’s opinion on the ability and willingness of sovereign governments to service their outstanding financial obligations in full and on time – it is basically an estimate of probability of default and/or likelihood of repayment. These sovereign ratings reflect factors such as a country's economic status, transparency in the capital markets, levels of public and private investment flows, foreign direct investment, foreign currency reserves, and the ability of a country's economy to remain stable despite political change. An important difference between sovereign credit ratings and corporate credit ratings is that sovereign credit ratings have large effects and implications that spread to

25

http://www.standardandpoors.com/
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other entities besides the one being rated. Cantor and Packer (1996) wrote: “Sovereign ratings are important not only because some of the largest issuers in the international financial markets are countries, but because these assessments affect the ratings assigned to borrowers of the same nationality. For example, agencies seldom, if ever, assign a rating to a (...) private company that is higher than that of the issuer's home country.” Investors with interests in foreign firms pay attention not only the foreign firm’s credit rating –when it is available- but also to the credit rating of the country where the firm is domiciled. This chapter contributes to the existing literature by extending our understanding of how much information do sovereign rating changes convey to domestic stock markets. Specifically, we investigate if and why a country rating matters for firms within that country. We show that sovereign rating changes affect the terms on which a domestic firm can get credit, creating an exogenous change in the cost of capital. We divide our results in two: we first present the effect of rating changes at the aggregate level using national stock indices, and then proceed to study the effect of those sovereign rating changes on the individual firms located within those countries. Our index level results are consistent with the extant literature on the effect of credit rating changes on U.S. firms. We do find evidence of a significant negative stock price reaction to sovereign rating downgrades while we find no evidence of a stock price reaction to sovereign rating upgrades. Further, we document that local stock markets react only to news of sovereign rating downgrades issued by Standard & Poor’s. When we look at the effect of sovereign rating changes on the cross section of individual firms, our results suggest that sovereign credit rating changes affect larger
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firms more. We also find that firms in poorer emerging countries experience larger drops in the price of their shares. The fact that ratings affect asset prices is surprising based on Wakeman (1992). In that paper, he explained that the real function of bond rating agencies is to reduce costs of financing at issuance. According to him, a bond rating does not determine but rather mirrors the market’s assessment of a bond’s risk, and thus ratings should not affect but rather reflect the market’s estimation of a bond’s value. Therefore, there should be no impact of rating changes on stock prices. Empirical work in this area (e. g., Holthausen and Leftwich, 1986, Cornell et al 1989) shows, however, that credit ratings convey valuable information to the bond and stock markets. The idea is that firms disclose more information to rating agencies, which in turn incorporate this information in their ratings in such way that the privileged information is conveyed but not disclosed. In an international setting, one could argue that rating agencies, in conducting their research to rate a country, develop information that would also affect the future prospects of domestic firms. Cornell et al (1989) proved that U.S. firms with more intangibles -which are more difficult to value- are affected more by the information conveyed by rating changes. More recently, Jorion et.al (2004) tested the effects of the introduction of Reg FD (Regulation Fair Disclosure) on the informational advantage of rating agencies. Using standard methodology, they show that both credit rating downgrades and upgrades have larger effects on stock prices after the introduction of Reg FD. There are at least three reasons why stocks in foreign markets react to credit changes of their sovereign government. Although sovereign credit ratings are not country ratings, it is more often than not the case that the rating assigned to a non-sovereign
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foreign entity is the same or lower than the credit rating assigned to the sovereign where it is domiciled. This is the so-called ‘sovereign ceiling’. The concept is based on the assumption that a sovereign default will force domestic issuers also to default because most circumstances leading to national debt crises –e.g. balance of payment crises and terms of trade shocks- directly affect the debt servicing capacity of private borrowers. For instance, private firms might be forced to default in the payment of their international obligations if their government imposes exchange controls that prevent access to foreign currency. All these additional risks exogenous to the firm are the basis for the existence of a cap on the ratings assigned to foreign firms, namely the sovereign ceiling.26 The sovereign ceiling is relevant for firms when it is binding, because in that case firms are facing costs of capital artificially higher than those they should face, i.e., a binding sovereign ceiling means the firm is paying a higher yield on its debt than it otherwise should. When a foreign firm has stronger credit characteristics than the sovereign where it is located and when the risk of the imposition of debt-service-limiting foreign exchange controls is less than the risk of the sovereign defaulting, it could be possible to observe foreign firm credit ratings higher than those assigned to the sovereign – this is known among practitioners as breaking the sovereign ceiling.27
26

A common misconception is that the sovereign rating and the sovereign ceiling are synonyms. There are examples of countries – for instance, some east European countries- where monetary ties make it harder for the country to impose defaulting conditions on its firms. In those cases, it is not uncommon to observe a sovereign rating lower than the sovereign ceiling. In many countries, however, the sovereign rating remains the best proxy to the sovereign ceiling (Durbin and Ng, 2004). The idea is based on the notion that because firms operate under the economic framework promoted by the government, an economic downturn would reflect itself in the domestic firm’s ability to repay their financial obligations abroad. For instance, in many emerging countries, economic crisis were almost always associated with currency devaluations, making foreign obligations more difficult to meet. The IMF (1991) defined this risk as ‘transfer risk’, since a government can transfer its problems –through greater taxes, imposing currency controls or assets expropriation- to an otherwise completely healthy firm. 27 The sovereign ceiling has not always been binding. The most notable exception is the Argentinean case, where Standard & Poor’s allowed 14 firms in April 1997 to have higher debt ratings than that of the 61

The second reason why local stock markets might react to sovereign credit rating changes has to do with the difficulties in collecting reliable information for most foreign firms. Many foreign countries –emerging markets mostly- have legislations that are not as conducive to the free flow of information from firms to its investors –actual and potential- as the U.S. legal framework. Faced with such difficulties to obtain detailed firm-level data, investors tend to rely on sovereign ratings as convenient and intuitive aids in valuing projects in emerging countries where firm-level information is scarce, effectively ‘painting all issuers with the same brush’. This effect seems to be even stronger for below investment-grade than for investment-grade issuers (Cantor and Packer, 1996). Finally, a third reason is that sovereign credit rating changes communicate information about the country and firms depend in many ways on the country where they are located. Large domestic firms in these countries can typically access capital more cheaply abroad than at home. However, a sovereign credit downgrade reduces this advantage. In that case, the firms that can borrow abroad would be less likely to do so, which would lead them to borrow more from at home and crowd out smaller firms. Alternatively, large domestic firms could find it impossible to raise suitable amounts at home because domestic financial markets are not deep enough. In this case, if foreign borrowing becomes more expensive (i.e., higher costs of capital), firms may end up borrowing less, or not borrowing at all and not undertaking investments.

Republic of Argentina. At that time, Moody’s severely criticized the move, calling it irresponsible, and refused to follow suit. Interestingly, when Argentina defaulted in 2001, all these Argentinean firms defaulted too. 62

To conduct this analysis we collected all sovereign rating changes issued by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s on 29 emerging countries from 1986 until 2003. We study the stock price reaction to 136 downgrades (81 from S&P and 55 from Moody’s) and 100 upgrades (57 and 43 from S&P and Moody’s respectively). We also analyze the impact of the first rating change to a given event, e.g., the first rating change from either agency to the Mexican crisis of 1994 or to the Russian crisis of 1998. This chapter is the first to study the effect of sovereign credit changes on the stock prices of domestic firms. To do this, we collect information on 1281 individual firms located in 29 emerging countries. After computing abnormal returns for each firm, we run cross-sectional regressions of those abnormal returns on firm-specific characteristics and country-specific variables. We document how the size and wealth of the country where a firm is domiciled are related to the extent to which that firm will be affected by a sovereign rating change. More importantly, we find that previous access to international capital markets is an important determinant of the extent to which a firm is affected by a sovereign credit rating change. Our results are important for several reasons. Recent renowned bankruptcies – Enron, World Com, United Airlines- have raised legitimate questions about the value we should place on credit ratings.28 Further, recently there has been a concern that rating agencies are late in issuing sovereign rating changes. Some authors claim that by lagging, rating agencies contributed to boom-bust cycles. If that is the case, we should not capture much of an effect in our empirical exercise. Yet, we find evidence of an effect that could have been –arguably- anticipated. We interpret our results as evidence of the
28

A good reference to illustrate the failure of credit ratings in capturing deteriorating conditions of the firms mentioned in the text is: http://www.moodyskmv.com/research/UAL.html 63

informational content of sovereign rating changes, even when they are not fully unanticipated events. Also, regulators -foreign and domestic- that conduct assessments of risk can benefit from an improved understanding of sovereign ratings changes and their effects on many of the firms they monitor. Our results also contribute to the research pioneered by Morck, Yeung and Yu (2000). In their work, they show that markets do not do a good job of differentiating among firms within emerging markets. Specifically, they find that “stock prices in economies with high per capita gross domestic product (GDP) move in a relatively unsynchronized manner. In contrast, stock prices in low per capita GDP economies tend to move up or down together.” In this chapter, we ask whether the price reaction of stocks to sovereign rating changes in 29 countries is related to firm characteristics and/or country characteristics. We do find that larger firms experience worse stock price reactions following sovereign downgrades. Firms that have accessed international capital markets also experience more negative reactions to downgrades of their sovereign government. Finally, we also find that firms located in richer countries (GDP per capita) and in countries with more developed financial markets (stock market capitalization to GDP) experience smaller price reductions following sovereign downgrades. This chapter will proceed as follows. In section II we will review the existing literature. Section III will show that there is an impact on the stock market at the index level. We proceed to analyze the impact of sovereign rating changes on individual firms in section IV. Section V will conclude.

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4.2.

Literature review

Earlier literature in the 1970s and all through the 1990s focused on the study of the impact of rating changes of individual U.S. firms on their bond and stock prices. Griffin and Sanvicente (1982), using monthly data, were the first ones to find evidence of significant negative stock price reactions to rating downgrades while finding no evidence of significant reactions to rating upgrades. Holthausen and Leftwich (1986) is the first paper that used daily data to study the stock price reaction to credit rating changes. The main contribution of their work was to establish that rating downgrades by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s provide information to the markets and impose costs to the firm by reducing the stock’s price. They did not find a significant stock price reaction for rating upgrades. Subsequently, many papers confirmed the findings by Holthausen and Leftwich (1986) under many different specifications and conditions (Wansley and Clauretie (1985), Cornell, Landsman and Shapiro (1989), Hand, Holthausen and Leftwich (1992), Goh and Ederington (1993), Goh and Ederington (1999), Dichev and Piotroski (2001)). Cornell, Landsman and Shapiro (1989) test whether a stock’s price response to rating changes is related to the nature of the firm’s assets, in particular whether the stock price response is related to the firm’s net intangible assets. They propose two hypotheses for the existence of such a relation, both of them based on the assumption that intangible assets are more difficult to value than tangible assets. Rating agencies, in conducting their business, develop expertise in the valuation of intangibles which in turn gives them an edge when it comes to firm and cash flow valuation. Their first hypothesis (investor hypothesis) assumes that a rating change should be more informative for firms with
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relatively large proportions of intangible assets. A second hypothesis is the non-investor stakeholder hypothesis. Here, stakeholders in the firm –clients, suppliers, and employeeshave implicit claims that are revalued at the arrival of news on credit rating changes. The revaluation of these implicit claims has immediate effects on a firm’s cash flows. Although rating changes are usually anticipated, they are not fully discounted by the market because there is uncertainty about the exact timing of the announcement. Both hypotheses imply that the impact of new information about rating changes on a firm’s stock price is likely to depend on the firm’s intangible assets. They do find supporting evidence for their hypotheses when analyzing a sample credit rating changes of U.S. firms. Goh and Ederington (1993) looked further into the reaction to rating downgrades by analyzing if a bond rating downgrade conveys good or bad news for stockholders. They divided the sample of rating downgrades in those that are mechanically triggered by increases in leverage and those that are caused by weaker prospects for the firm, expecting to find negative stock price reactions stemming from the latter reason and positive or no stock reactions to downgrades prompted by the former reason. Consistent with their predictions, they find that rating deteriorations due to worse future prospects cause a negative stock price reaction, whereas the stock price did not react on average to credit rating changes due to changes in leverage. Hull, Pedrescu and White (2004) analyze the relation between credit default swap spreads and credit ratings. They find that only reviews for downgrades convey information to default swaps, confirming that downgrades convey information to investors and upgrades do not.

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Although most studies consider a rating downgrade to be bad news, not all authors agree that downgrades are bad news for shareholders. An argument initially put forth by Holthausen and Leftwich (1986) and Zaima and McCarthy (1988) explains why we might observe positive stock price reactions to rating downgrades. The argument is based on a Merton-model for firm value point of view. In this case, equity holders hold an option on the value of the firm with an exercise price equal to the par value of the firm’s debt, and therefore an increase in the variance of the firm’s cash flows would trigger a downgrade and redistribute wealth from bondholders to stockholders. Goh and Ederington (1999) analyze the cross sectional variation in the stock market reaction to bond rating changes, showing the stock markets react more negatively to bond rating downgrades within and into junk status. They also find that downgrades tend to follow periods of negative returns, which is interpreted as evidence of partial predictability in ratings. To investigate whether capital markets consider that credit ratings convey any information beyond what is publicly available on a firm’s prospects and fundamentals, Kliger and Sarig (2000) conduct a unique experiment. On April 26, 1982, Moody’s modified its rating classification to include finer ratings. This unannounced change was simultaneously implemented on all bonds followed by Moody’s, thus providing a unique opportunity to study the informational content of credit ratings. They analyzed bond, stock and option prices observed before and after the classification change and concluded that rating information is valuable to capital markets. Dichev and Piotroski (2001) examine long-run stock returns using all Moody’s bond rating changes between 1970 and 1997. They look at both cumulative abnormal
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returns and buy-and-hold returns, and after controlling for size and book-to-market, find no evidence of abnormal returns following upgrades, whereas they confirm substantial negative abnormal returns following downgrades. Further, they document poorer returns for downgrades of small and low-credit-quality firms. They also find evidence that suggests a role of downgrades as predictors of future deteriorations in earnings. More recently, Odders-White and Ready (2003) take a different approach to determine if credit ratings contain information beyond the one that is publicly available. Using panel regressions including popular measures of adverse selection, they show that firms with more adverse selection problems have lower ratings. Further, they find a significant negative relation between the components of the adverse selection measures related to private information and debt ratings. This relation is interpreted as evidence that ratings contain information beyond that available in other published financial data and that is not captured by other variables. Finally, they also find that rating agencies often fail to react to changes in uncertainty immediately, thus causing some predictability in rating changes. The fact that rating changes are predictable is a source of potential concern to market regulators. On the sovereign side, Cantor and Packer (1996) looked at the determinants of sovereign credit ratings using ratings issued by Moody's and S&P. After conducting a variety of cross-sectional analyses, they concluded that ratings subsume all relevant macroeconomic information. They also found that the announcement effect on bond spreads is much stronger for below investment-grade (junk) than investment-grade issuers.

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Elayan, Hsu and Thomas (1999) conducted a comparison of the informational content of credit rating announcements in New Zealand and in the U.S. They document a reaction to market credit rating announcements in small markets that is different from the reaction in large markets; in particular they find evidence of New Zealand firms’ stock prices reacting significantly to both good and bad news conveyed by rating upgrades and downgrades. Kaminsky and Schmukler (2002), look into the effects of rating and

outlook changes on bond and stock returns. Their methodology is different from ours. Further, they focus on the macroeconomic consequences of rating changes whereas we are interested in the individual firm effects. Using a panel specification they find evidence of rating upgrades taking place after market rallies and rating downgrades occurring after periods of poor performance, concluding that rating agencies play a destabilizing role in emerging markets. Patro and Wald (2005) study the returns experienced by local firms following equity liberalizations. They find that small, high book-to-market (BM) and low beta firms experience higher returns following liberalization events, showing that stock prices of individual firms react in different ways to country-wide events. Miller and Puthenpurackal (2005) show that firms accessing international debt markets via global bond offerings do experience reductions in their overall cost of capital. We conjecture in our chapter that previous access to international capital markets could be related to the magnitude of the stock price impact a firm experiences after a sovereign credit change. Some papers asked whether capital markets differentiate between rating agencies. Beaver, Shakespeare, and Soliman (2004) study the differences in ratings provided by certified agencies like Moody’s and credible, non-certified agencies. They find that
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ratings by certified agencies are more conservative and less timely than those issued by non-certified rating agencies. Mollemans (2004) studies the effect of rating announcements in Japan and concludes that Japanese stock returns are responsive to S&P rating changes but not to Moody’s rating changes. Rating agencies have been criticized for the role they played in currency and/or debt crises in the 1990s. Critics claim that by lagging in their rating changes, agencies contributed to boom-bust cycles, inducing excessive flows of funds into and out of emerging countries. Sy (2003) asks whether rating agencies anticipate currency and/or debt crises for the sovereigns they cover. He concludes that ratings do not predict currency crises and react ex-post to them, consistent with rating agencies’ assertion that they measure probability of debt default, not probability of currency crises. He also finds that lagged ratings and rating changes are useful in anticipating sovereign distress. Amato and Furfine (2003) study if rating agencies behave in a counter-cyclical way. They find that ratings issued by S&P do not have excessive sensitivity to the business cycle – which is consistent with the normative view that ratings should have a long term perspective. The ‘through-the-cycle’ methodology S&P uses is better suited for long-term perspectives, so that a rating agency only changes a rating when it feels confident the changes in a company’s risk profile are likely to be permanent. Brooks, Faff, Hillier and Hillier (2004) study the aggregate stock market impact of sovereign rating changes from several rating agencies. They conclude that national stock markets react to news of sovereign downgrades but not to sovereign upgrades. Governments not only seek credit ratings to facilitate their access to international capital markets, but also because these assessments affect the ratings of other borrowers
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of the same nationality. As mentioned in the introduction, one way through which sovereign ratings affect domestic firms is the sovereign ceiling. Durbin and Ng (2004) study the instances in which the sovereign ceiling rule is broken. They match bonds from companies based in emerging markets and match them with a corresponding sovereign bond to measure the difference between corporate and sovereign spreads. In 20 cases (out of a reduced sample of 28 bonds) they identify several instances in which the sovereign ceiling rule is broken. A casual review of the characteristics of these firms suggests that the ability to generate revenue abroad, the existence of ties with the government or an affiliation with a foreign firm are common characteristics of these firms. Cruces (2001) shows that sovereign credit ratings are key in determining the cost and availability of international financing for an economy. He reasons that because there is limited ability to enforce debt contracts subject to the regulatory authority of a foreign government, and because governments are sovereign in their territories and have few assets beyond their borders that can be seized by foreign court order, measures of host government sovereign risk contain critical information for investors contemplating international investment.

4.3.

The effect of sovereign rating changes on stock market indices

Following earlier literature (Kamisnky and Schmukler, 2002; Brooks, Faff, Hillier and Hillier, 2004), we will analyze separately the impact of S&P and Moody’s rating changes on stock indices. We will start with this section with data and methodology descriptions.

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4.3.1

Data

We start by collecting all information available in Bloomberg on sovereign rating changes. There are three certified rating agencies that monitor emerging countries and issue credit ratings for a number of them. These agencies are Fitch, Moody’s and Standard and Poor’s (S&P). In this chapter we use ratings issued by Moody’s and S&P because they cover more countries for a longer period of time. For all emerging countries covered by each rating agency, we collected debt rating history for long-term, foreign currency denominated obligations.29 To rate issuers, Standard and Poor’s uses 24 different ratings, ranging from D (lowest) to AAA (highest), with a “+” or “-“ to denote issuers above or below the mean in each category. Moody’s has 27 ratings, from a lowest rating of C to a highest rating of Aaa (Moody’s adds the number 1, 2, or 3 after the rating to signal an issuer above the mean, on the mean or below the mean in each category, respectively). Each rating agency has a slightly different threshold for so-called ‘investment grade’ issuers. Standard and Poor’s considers everything above a rating of BBB- (inclusive) as investment grade, whereas Moody’s considers Baa3 (inclusive) and above as an investment grade rating. Tables 13 and 14 summarize the information collected on sovereign rating changes. Table 13 shows the 32 emerging countries covered by Standard and Poor’s. Korea and Thailand were among the first countries rated (1988 and 1989, respectively), while Venezuela was the first Latin American country rated (in 1990). Bulgaria, Jamaica and Ukraine are the most recently added countries to their watch list, in 1998, 1999 and 2001, respectively. As expected, countries that experienced episodes of heightened
We use Standard and Poor’s Emerging Market Database as our criteria to decide which countries are emerging markets. If a country is included in their list, it is included in ours. 72
29

financial turmoil in the 1990s are among the countries that experienced most credit rating changes, so it is no surprise to see Indonesia (16), Korea (11), Russia (11), and Argentina (9) with the largest number of rating changes. It is interesting to observe the evolution of ratings in some countries. Portugal, for instance, had a slow but steady increase in credit worthiness. Other countries, like Korea and Venezuela, had credit ratings that were all over the place, experiencing credit upheavals that made them get very high as well as very low credit ratings. Only 8 countries (Chile, China, Czech Republic, Greece, Malaysia, Portugal, Qatar and Thailand) have always been rated as ‘investment grade’, whereas 10 additional countries have enjoyed that status at some time or another. Table 14 shows information from rating changes announced by Moody’s. Argentina (1986), Brazil (1986), and Malaysia (1986) are among the first countries covered. The most recent additions to their list of covered countries are Ukraine (1998), Chile (1999) and Egypt (2001). Although the same countries are covered, there are important differences as to how long they have been covered and also –we can only speculate on this- about the level of attention given to them by the rating agencies. For instance, Indonesia (with 16 rating changes from Standard and Poor’s) only has 4 rating changes from Moody’s. Argentina, on the other side (with 9 changes from Standard and Poor’s) has 19 rating changes from Moody’s. Argentina (19), with Malaysia (14) and Russia (10), are the countries with the largest number of rating changes from Moody’s. Daily stock index data was collected from Datastream for 29 countries. Specifically, we collected the return index (datatype RI) for Datastream’s local stock indices in U.S. dollars. Indices not available in U.S. dollars were converted from their
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local currency into U.S. dollars using the prevailing exchange rates available also on Datastream. For 21 countries we use Datastream’s local stock indices, whereas for 8 more countries we use their local stock exchange index. We could not find information for the remaining 3 countries.

4.3.2

Methodology

In conducting our study, we run into a typical problem when interpreting announcement effects: in efficient markets, the announcement effect of the event we want to study will measure the difference between the post-announcement effect and what was expected beforehand. If investors had a high likelihood beforehand of an announcement occurring, the updating element is small and the announcement effect underestimates the impact of the event. In the case of debt ratings, rating agencies are famous for being secretive about their decision process. Therefore, although rating changes are sometimes anticipated, there is uncertainty about when, if at all, a rating change will occur (Cornell, Landsman and Shapiro, 1989). We follow the standard event study methodology by Brown and Warner (1985). The methodology developed in that paper has been successfully applied to a wide variety of events, for instance mergers and acquisitions and the cross listings of shares in new markets. A common denominator of those applications is the fact that the event being the focus of the study is rarely a ‘sudden’ occurrence. Usually, news about a merger or a cross listing of shares is leaked or is even publicly announced prior to them taking place. In this chapter, we are interested in the stock price reaction when news of a sovereign rating change is made public.
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Event studies are by definition joint tests of hypotheses. To be able to measure abnormal returns, one has to define what a normal return is, i.e. make an assumption on the return-generating process. More often than not, the market model is used to compute normal returns.30 The null of event studies is that there should be no significant abnormal average returns if the event is uncorrelated with the stock return. We will compute abnormal returns according to the following specification: ˆ ˆ Ai ,t = Ri ,t − α i − β i Rm,t

ˆ ˆ where α i and β i are the OLS parameters obtained from the (t-244, t-6) estimation
window, Ai ,t is the abnormal return for firm i, Ri ,t is the return for firm i, and Rm ,t is the world market return from Datastream. We then compute the significance of the average abnormal return for each date in the estimation window using a test statistic. The statistic is computed as the ratio of the mean abnormal return to the estimated standard deviation from the time series of mean abnormal returns.

4.3.3 Discussion of index level results

Tables 15 and 16 show the results from event studies using rating changes from Standard and Poor’s and Moody’s, respectively. Using S&P data, we have a total of 160 rating changes, out of which 81 are rating downgrades, 57 are upgrades and 22 are initial

30

Other measures of normal returns used in the literature are mean adjusted returns (i.e. using the simple average of a security’s daily return in some pre-defined estimation window) and market adjusted returns (where the return of the market is subtracted from each individual firm return). Brown and Warner (1985) showed that the OLS market model is well-specified in most cases and that it outperforms the other two return-generating processes when some assumptions (normality, autocorrelation, etc.) are relaxed. Using 250 simulations of 50 randomly chosen stocks with daily data Brown and Warner (1985) showed that methodologies based on the OLS-market model are well-specified. 75

rating announcements.31 Table 15, panel A has the results of the event study conducted using S&P downgrades. There seems to be evidence of news leaking to the market a few days before the actual announcement, which is consistent with anecdotical evidence as well as with information collected through informal conversations with practitioners. Rating changes usually don’t strike like bolts of lightning, but rather many times they are ‘telegraphed’ to the market days in advance. This could explain the fact that abnormal returns for t-3, t-2, t-1 and 0 are statistically significant. Also, cumulative abnormal returns (CAR) for the (-5, +5) and (-1,+1) are negative and statistically significant at the 1% level. The 11-day CAR for rating downgrades is -2.8% (t-stat of -2.37), while the 3day CAR is -1.8% (t-stat of -2.95). Figure 17 illustrates a negative trend of both the daily abnormal return (bars) and the cumulative abnormal return (line) starting at t-5. Panel B of Table 15 has the results from the analysis of rating upgrades issued by S&P. Consistent with earlier domestic literature we find no evidence of a significant stock price reaction to rating upgrades. No single abnormal return in the (-5, +5) period is significant, and the visual inspection of figure 18 –which displays abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns- provides no further clues. Table 16 presents the results of the analysis using Moody’s rating changes. Moody’s has 53 downgrades, 45 upgrades and 19 initial rating announcements for the countries in our sample. Panel A has the results for Moody’s rating downgrades. Although the abnormal returns at t-4 and t-1 are negative and significant at the 1% and 5% level, the 11-day and 3-day cumulative abnormal returns are statistically insignificant. These results seem to suggest that, for sovereigns, Moody’s ratings are
The reason we have only 22 initial rating announcements is that not all countries had index data available at the time their initial sovereign credit rating was announced. 76
31

considered as less informative by the local stock markets.32 Panel B of Table 16 shows the results of rating upgrades. Just as it was the case with Standard and Poor’s upgrades, we find no evidence of significant abnormal returns. Ours is not the first paper to find that outside the U.S. Standard and Poor’s ratings are considered more informative than ratings issued by Moody’s. Mollemans (2004) finds a similar result looking at Japanese firms, and Beaver, Shakespeare, and Soliman (2004) document the different stock price reactions to ratings issued from certified and noncertified rating agencies. Hu, Kiesel and Perraudin (2001) opted for S&P ratings over Moody’s to estimate transition matrices for sovereign ratings because they were more informative, although they noted that of a sample of 49 sovereigns rated by both agencies at the time they wrote their paper, 28 had the same rating, 14 were apart by only one notch and 7 were apart by two notches. So far, we have looked separately at rating changes by agency, in a manner consistent with the extant literature. Now we try two different approaches. One is to use the initial rating announcement by either agency of a credit rating for a country, i.e., the first time a country is rated. By definition, this is a good news event. Non-rated countries –or investment bankers acting on their behalf- initiate contacts with rating agencies when they want to access international capital markets for the first time, when they want to improve the terms under which they access international capital markets or to attract foreign investors into its local debt or equity markets. Countries would hire a rating
One difference that becomes evident from looking at the breakdown of rating change announcements is that Moody’s makes more ‘outlook’ change announcements than Standard and Poor’s. An outlook change is a warning issued by the rating agency, usually stating that a country’s rating is under review or under stress. Although not all warnings materialize in actual rating changes (only about 60% of them do), and not all changes are preceded by warnings, one possibility we had to consider is that stock prices react to outlook announcements and not to actual rating changes. We re-run our analysis using outlook announcements dates and still found no significant abnormal returns for Moody’s data. 77
32

agency when their prospects are good, and therefore when they have reasonable high expectations of being rated favorably. 33 Viewed in this light, initial ratings are usually good news, and our expectation is to find favorable stock price reactions to the announcement of an initial rating, or at least stock price reactions similar to those observed for rating upgrades. Table 17 has the results for this experiment. We have 17 countries with data going back far enough to cover the date of the initial rating. Of those 17 countries, 10 had initial ratings by S&P and 10 by Moody’s. We do not find any evidence of a significant reaction across countries to these events, just as it was the case with sovereign rating upgrades. The second approach is to look at the impact of the first rating change issued by either agency to a given event. This is not straightforward, as Moody’s and S&P rating changes do not move in tandem. For instance, in the 1990-2003 period Moody’s had 19 rating changes for Argentina while S&P had only 9. We proceeded by defining pairs of events of any two rating changes by both agencies that took place within a six month period. The earliest announcement within each pair is what we consider as first rating. Table 18 has the complete list of paired rating changes for Argentina.34 It shows which agency is identified with providing –chronologically- the first rating if both agencies changed a country’s rating within a six month period. We did this pairing of ratings for each one of the 29 countries in the sample, and ended up with 40 downgrades (21 were from S&P and 19 from Moody’s) and with 38 upgrades (21 from Moody’s and 38 from S&P).

33 34

See Martell and Stulz (2003). Tables for all the countries included in this paper are omitted for brevity and available upon request. 78

Table 19 has the results of this analysis of first ratings. As with the complete sample of rating changes, we only find significant results for rating downgrades. Panel A has the results from analyzing sovereign downgrades by S&P (21) and by Moody’s (19). The difference in the stock reaction to ratings issued by each agency is evident. Downgrades issued by S&P are associated with a negative 11-day abnormal cumulative return of 6%, significant at the 1% level. The 3-day CAR is also negative and significant. No CAR computed from announcements by Moody’s is significant, and what’s more, the 11-day CAR is positive (although not significant). Overall, Table 19 provides evidence that financial markets react only to sovereign credit downgrades issued by Standard and Poor’s. Summarizing our index level results, we find evidence of emerging stock indices reacting to news of sovereign rating downgrades, i.e., we find significant 3-day and 11day negative cumulative abnormal returns following a sovereign rating downgrade. We find no evidence of a significant stock market reaction to the news of sovereign upgrades. We also find evidence of local stock markets reacting more to sovereign rating changes issued by S&P than to those issued by Moody’s.

4.4.

Impact of sovereign rating changes at the firm level

In the previous section we looked at the effect of sovereign rating changes on domestic stock indices. This analysis, however, leaves several important questions unanswered. For instance, does a change in a sovereign rating affect the terms on which a domestic firm can get credit? If so, does it affect all firms in the same way? This begets the question of why does the country rating matter for domestic firms. If a sovereign
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rating change causes an exogenous change in the cost of capital, it is important to understand whether that exogenous change is the same for all firms and whether firm characteristics are related to the magnitude of the stock price impact of that exogenous shock. One possibility is that all firms are affected in the same way following a sovereign credit change. For instance, a sovereign credit rating downgrade leads to an increase in sovereign yield that can signal that the country as a whole is a riskier place, e.g. it is a place with higher probability of expropriation, and/or can also signal an increased level of market segmentation, all of which would mean that the expected return on all local stocks should increase. This would be consistent with the work by Morck, Yeung and Yu (2000). They showed that stock prices moved together more in emerging countries than in richer countries and conclude that political events in low-income countries can create market-wide stock price swings, mainly because poorer economies offer less diversification opportunities to their firms. A sovereign downgrade is by definition a worsening of rating that increases political risk, and can be seen domestically as a political event with market-wide stock price reactions. The first step is to investigate if prior access to international capital markets does affect firms’ stock reactions to sovereign rating changes. We split our sample according to whether a firm has an ADR trading abroad, an Eurobond issue, or both. Table 20 presents abnormal returns from sovereign downgrades (panel A) and upgrades (panel B). As expected, all the action takes place in panel A. Oddly, CARs from firms with and without ADR issues are nearly identical. CARs for firms with international debt, however, are much more negative than those of firms with no international debt. This
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suggests that firms that already have an international debt issue will probably need to tap international markets again, either to refinance or to get new resources. However, a sovereign downgrade will induce an exogenous worsening of the terms under which these firms got their international credit. Therefore, these firms are more sensitive to sovereign downgrades. To investigate further which firm characteristics are associated with the observed behavior of stock prices after sovereign credit changes, we will compute individual abnormal returns and then estimate cross-sectional regressions of those returns on a group of variables that capture firm and country characteristics. We will compute abnormal returns for each firm included in Datastream’s stock indices using a simple CAPM framework (i.e., market model). Our firm accounting data comes from Worldscope. For each firm, we collected intangible assets (item 02649), total assets (item 02999), total debt (item 03255), total revenues (item 07240), and cash plus short term investments (item 02001). We also collected other items like foreign income as a percentage of total income (item 08741) and total interest expense (item 01075), but decided not to use them as their reduced availability impacted severely on our sample size. Following Morck et al (2000) we collected GDP per capita and stock market capitalization of public firms as a percentage of GDP from the World Bank’s Economic Indicators database. All variables were converted to U.S. dollars using prevailing exchange rates collected from Datastream. Cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) were computed in the same way as in the previous section, using market model adjusted returns. We report z-statistics instead of t-statistics to account for the varying number of firms in our computations.

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We also collected data on firm’s access to international equity and debt markets, gathering information from Citibank and The Bank of New York on ADRs (all levels) that traded in the U.S. from 1990 to 2003. Out of 385 firms with ADRs in the countries included in this chapter, 156 are included in our sample. We also got data from SDC and Datastream on all live and dead non-sovereign bonds from countries in our sample and manually matched them. We ended up with 228 firms that had at least one bond trading in international markets at the time of the sovereign rating change. As expected because regulatory requirements are less stringent for debt issuance than for equity raising, we have more firms accessing international debt markets than international equity markets. Our reasoning for collecting information on access to international capital markets goes as follows. Healthy firms might choose to go abroad to get financing because it might be cheaper to do so or because their financial needs are not fulfilled in domestic financial markets. When the government of the country where a firm is domiciled is downgraded, these firms suddenly find –everything else equal- that the terms on which they access international markets deteriorate. This will in turn raise the cost of capital for new projects, making some of them unprofitable and therefore reducing future cash flows, all of which translates into lower stock prices. Since these firms came to rely on international financing on a regular basis, we hypothesize that firms that have accessed international capital markets in the past –either equity markets via an ADR program or debt via an international bond offering- would experience larger negative stock price reactions following a sovereign downgrade and larger positive stock price reactions following a sovereign upgrade.

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Table 21 shows results obtained from regressing individual firm cumulative abnormal returns following sovereign downgrades on several firm and country variables. These abnormal returns were computed in the following way: ˆ ˆ Ai ,t = Ri ,t − α i − β i Rm,t

ˆ ˆ where α i and β i are the OLS parameters obtained from the estimation window,
Ai ,t is the abnormal return for firm i, Ri ,t is the return for firm i, and Rm ,t is the world

market return from Datastream, all of them denominated in dollars. We include country dummies to control for country fixed effects, although for brevity we do not report the results of each intercept.
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We are using the world market return to make these returns

comparable to those presented in the index-level discussion of the previous section. Panels A and B show 3 and 11-day dollar CARs, respectively. Availability of firm accounting data on Worldscope is of some concern, since our sample got reduced from 2,523 observations to 1,487 observations in the omnibus regressions. R-squared values are much better than the ones obtained by previous research, although most of the explanatory power comes from the fixed country effects specification. In panel A, the minimum R-square value for 3-day abnormal returns is 24.7% and the max R-square value is 28.21%, whereas in Panel B (11-day CARs) the min R-square is 15.29% and the max is 21.72%. Both panels have a qualitatively similar story, although since results are stronger in panel A, we will focus our discussion of results on that panel. We started by estimating regressions on country dummies (this is equivalent of running a fixed effects regression with country level effects) and a constant. The second

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Detailed regression results are available upon request. 83

regression specification on panel A includes dummies to control for the existence of ADRs and/or international bonds, and we find that only the latter has a negative significant coefficient. This result, however, reverses strongly in all other regression specifications when we include size proxies, log of GDP per capita and the country’s stock market capitalization to GDP. Not only has the ADR dummy a significant and negative coefficient, but its interaction with the log of total assets also has a significant coefficient (positive). In all cases, the log of GDP per capita and the market capitalization to GDP are significant at the 1% level and positive. Two proxies for size, the log of total assets and revenues to total assets have negative coefficients, significant at least at the 10% level. Interestingly, the measure of intangible assets as proportion of total assets never has a significant coefficient, although the negative sign is consistent with Cornell et al (1989). Even though we conducted regressions controlling for fixed country effects, the log of GDP per capita and the proportion of stock market capitalization to GDP always have positive and significant coefficients. These results suggest that firms located in richer countries (as measured by GDP per capita) experience smaller stock price drops following a downgrade of their government’s debt. The richer a country is, the more diversified we expect its economy to be and therefore there will be a richer variety of economic activities in which domestic firms can engage, making firms less sensitive to systematic shocks (Morck et al, 2000). Also, firms located in countries with more developed financial markets (measured by stock market capitalization to GDP) experience smaller price reductions although the coefficients associated with this variable

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are at least two orders of magnitude smaller than the coefficients associated with the log of GDP. The two variables we use to proxy for firm size, log of total assets and revenues over total assets, are consistent in the story they tell. Both have negative and significant coefficients in every specification in panel A. It is sensible to think that only larger firms will outgrow local financial markets to the point that they need to go abroad to get the needed financing, making them more sensitive to exogenous shocks to the cost of international financing. Table 22 present the results of similar regressions as those shown in Table 21 using CARs following sovereign credit upgrades. Although the index-level results did not produce significant abnormal returns, this does not mean that there is no information in the cross section. As with Table 21, panel A of Table 22 has the results from regressions that use 3-day CARs as the dependent variable, while panel B uses 11-day CARs. Although both panels have the same qualitative picture, panel B has a sharper picture and our description shall focus on it. Interestingly, the coefficients for log of GDP per capita and stock market capitalization to GDP have the opposite sign as before (now it is negative). This result is significant at the 1% level for both variables. Both size proxies have insignificant coefficients in the omnibus regressions. The proportion of inventories to assets has a significant positive coefficient, as well as the proportion of total debt to total assets. Most importantly, having had any type of access to international capital markets makes no difference in the abnormal return experienced by these firms. Overall, the picture that emerges from Tables 21 and 22 is one consistent with sovereign credit changes having an asymmetric impact on the stock prices of domestic
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firms. Larger firms experience larger reductions in their stock price following sovereign downgrades yet they do not experience larger increases when a sovereign upgrade is announced. We think this reflects the exogenous cost imposed on the firm by a sovereign downgrade, especially in the case where the sovereign ceiling is binding. If a firm’s rating is constrained by the sovereign rating, a drop in sovereign rating will force an increase in the cost of international debt for that firm. An increase in sovereign rating, on the other hand, does not reduce the cost of international debt. Larger firms are more probable to experience this behaviour. Firms with more debt as a proportion of total assets benefit more from a sovereign upgrade yet their stock prices are not punished as much when their sovereign government is downgraded. Firms located in richer countries and in countries with more developed financial markets experience smaller losses in their stock prices following a downgrade but also experience smaller gains following upgrades of their sovereign government. Finally, having accessed international equity and/or debt markets makes a firm more vulnerable to sovereign downgrades but does not grant any additional benefits when the host government is upgraded. This effect is more important for larger firms, as evidenced by the significant coefficient for the interaction of ADRs and size.

4.5.

Conclusions

In this chapter we analyzed the impact of sovereign credit rating changes on local stock markets. In the first part of the chapter, we established that local stock indices from 29 emerging countries react only to news of sovereign rating downgrades, in a manner consistent with the results of existing domestic literature. We also established that
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international markets consider rating changes from S&P more informative than rating changes issued by Moody’s. We then looked at the effect of sovereign rating changes on individual firm stock prices. Analyzing the cross section of abnormal returns of 1281 firms, we found that firms located in richer countries and in countries with more developed financial markets experience smaller stock price reductions following a downgrade of their host government. Our evidence also suggests that larger firms are more sensitive to sovereign downgrades, as well as firms that have accessed international equity or debt markets. Our results are relevant for domestic and foreign investors, firms located in emerging countries and regulators. Local regulators can better assess the risks faced by the firms they are supposed to regulate. Further, a better understanding of how these country-wide shocks affect local firms can help them engage in more efficient ways to lower their cost capital – both at home and abroad.

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CHAPTER 5

CONCLUSIONS

This dissertation contributes to three literatures in finance. The first essay sheds light on the determinants of debt yield spreads for countries and firms. This essay identified the existence of a two strong common components, unrelated to credit risk and distinct for each type of debt, in credit spreads of non-U.S. sovereign bonds and domestic U.S. corporate bonds. Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model, I find that domestic spreads are related to the lagged first common component of sovereign spreads. While there is no contemporaneous common component in bond spreads, there seems to be a common component when focusing on the dynamics of these spreads. Traditional macroliquidity variables are related to the common components found in domestic and sovereign spread changes, raising the explanatory power of the VAR equations from a minimum R-square value of 5% to a maximum value of 67%. Flows in and out equity and bond funds explain more of the variation in the common components than net borrowed reserves from the Federal Reserve. The first essay contributes to the literature on the dynamics of credit spreads by showing that current structural models of debt spreads can be improved if these findings are incorporated in them. To the extent that investors depend on these models to hedge
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the credit risk of their bond positions, they can benefit from a better understanding of the determinants of credit spreads changes. This essay also shows that, after taking into account the dynamics of the common components in credit spreads across different debt instruments, the cost of debt for firms and countries depends to some extent on shocks that affect all types of debt. The second essay applied multivariate, extreme-value techniques to returns on Latin American local stock indices, the S&P 500 and Latin American ADRs. I find evidence of asymmetric behavior in the left and right tails of the joint marginal extreme distributions for six Latin American countries. I also identified differences in extreme correlations for different instruments (investing in ADRs vs. investing directly in the local stock markets) where no difference was to be expected. Finally, this essay documents evidence of a structural change in the correlations for the Mexican case before and after the 1995 Mexican crisis. The third and final dissertation essay analyzed the impact of sovereign credit rating changes on local stock markets. I first established that local stock indices from 29 emerging countries react only to news of sovereign rating downgrades, in a manner consistent with the results of the existing literature on U.S. ratings changes. I also established that international markets consider rating changes from S&P more informative than rating changes issued by Moody’s. When I look at the effect of sovereign rating changes on individual firm stock prices, interesting patterns arise. I document an average price drop of 8% for the firms in my sample following a sovereign downgrade. This drop is more pronounced for firms that have issued debt abroad (negative 12%). When I analyze the cross-section of
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abnormal returns to sovereign upgrades and downgrades, I find that firms located in richer countries and in countries with more developed financial markets experience smaller stock price reductions following a downgrade of their host government. Also, larger firms, as well as firms that have accessed international equity or debt markets, are more sensitive to sovereign downgrades,. This finding suggests that larger firms – which are more likely to find themselves financially constrained in their domestic financial markets - rely more on external sources of financing. The cost of accessing these external sources of financing is exogenously increased for these firms when news of a sovereign downgrade reaches the markets. This effect is even more pronounced for firms that have previously enjoyed access to international capital markets, as they tend to rely more in this type of financing.

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Susmel, Raul, 2001, Extreme Observations and Diversification in Emerging Markets, Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 20, pp. 971-986. Sy, Amadou, 2003, Rating the Rating Agencies: Anticipating Currency Crises or Debt Crises, IMF working paper No. 03/122. Tawn, Jonathan A., 1988. “Bivariate Extreme Value Theory: Models and estimation”, Biometrika, 75, 3, pp. 397-415. Tolikas, Konstantinos and Richard Brown, 2003, The Distribution of Extreme Daily Share Returns in the Athens Stock Exchange, unpublished working paper, University of Dundee. Wakeman, L. Macdonald, 1992, The Real Function of Bond Rating Agencies, in The Revolution in Corporate Finance, ed. Joel M. Stern and Donald H. Chew, Jr. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell Publishers, 1992 Wansley, James W. and Terrance M. Clauretie, 1985, The impact of Creditwatch placements on equity re-turns and bond prices, Journal of Financial Research, Vol. 8(1), pp 31-42. Westphalen, Michael, 2002, Valuation of Sovereign Debt with Strategic Defaulting and Rescheduling, Research Paper 43, FAME Research Paper Series. Westphalen, Michael, 2003, The Determinants of Sovereign Bond Credit Spread Changes, Working Paper, FAME. Zaima, Janis and Joseph McCarthy, 1988, The impact of bond rating changes on common stocks and bonds: tests of the wealth redistribution hypothesis, Financial Review, Vol. 23, pp. 483 – 498.

98

APPENDIX A

A COMPARISON OF SOVEREIGN BOND COVERAGE ON DATASTREAM AND THE NAIC DATABASE.

99

Researchers have access today to two main sources for international bond data time series. One is Datastream International and the other one is the Fixed Income Securities Database provided by the University of Houston (the Warga database). Both databases differ in format, coverage, and data providers. While Datastream does not make public the identity of their data provider due to legal technicalities, I found through informal conversations with their support staff that Lehman Brothers and ISMA (International Securities Market Association) are among their main data providers. The inclusion of Lehman Brothers as a data provider for Datastream is re-assuring since prior to 1998 Lehman Brothers used to be the main source of fixed income instruments data (they discontinued support of that database in 1998). To analyze Datastream and Warga databases’ coverage on sovereign bonds I compare the set of bonds available on both. Ideally, I would have wanted to compute correlations of monthly returns for the bonds on both databases, however, that is not possible because the Warga database does not provide with time series data for the bonds it covers. Before conducting the comparison I will make a brief description of the Warga data. This $12,000 database comes in two CDs. The first one contains Microsoft Access files that include lots of tables with exhaustive information (static) data for 157,488 different bonds issued by 10,057 different issuers. When I filter out sovereign issues using the included ‘industry_code’ variable, I come up with 1,579 bond issues from 146 sovereign issuers. The files in the first CD, however, do not contain any price information other than prices at launch. The second CD includes information from all insurance companies’ buys and sells of instruments in the first CD for 1995-1999, provided by NAIC –National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Although the web site for this
100

database (http://www.bauer.uh.edu/awarga/comp.html) says that price information is available up until 2001, the last update purchased a few months ago by the finance department at Ohio State includes only data up to the end of 1999. Since the price information is only for the purchase and sell of securities, and because many of these securities do not trade frequently, it is not possible to construct a regular time series –say monthly- with prices for these issues. Further, the price data comes in four files: two files for purchases and two files for sales. The first pair of files covers the 1995-1998 period and the second set covers the 1998-1999 period. Datastream has continuous coverage from the early 90s until today. The only way to automatically link information from Datastream and the Warga data is through the ISIN (International Security Identification Number) code, which is available on both of them. For 35 emerging market countries included in my first dissertation essay, Datastream has codes (a code is Datastream’s own id number) for 291 different bonds. Out of those 291 different sovereign bonds, there is ISIN information for 276 of them. Table 1 has the list of such countries. Table 2 has information of the availability of data from those 35 emerging markets on the Warga price files. There are total 105 different bonds across all four pricing files. Table 2 shows that there 73, 58, 88 and 89 unique bonds in each file. However, not all those bonds are present in Datastream. Only 40, 35, 55 and 56 bonds from each Warga file respectively are in both databases. As mentioned before, there are not nearly enough observations per bond to construct a time series. The average number of observations per bond is 10, the minimum is 1 (and also the mode) and the maximum is 30, although in those cases there are many observations clustered around certain
101

periods of time, and therefore having 30 observations does not mean we have 30 monthly observations. So, we end up with 552, 221, 844 and 745 –respectively- usable data points where we have clean price information for a specific bond on an the same date. Simple clean price correlations range between 92% and 97%, whereas holding period return correlations between Datastream and Warga data range from 73% to 89%. These numbers make us feel more comfortable with the overall quality of Datastream data, at least for sovereign data. In my job market paper I use yields from Datastream, and being that yields are only complex transformations of clean prices, the relevant correlations are the one between clean prices. Further, it seems clear that Datastream has a better coverage of sovereign issues (276 vs. 105 bonds in the 35 emerging market countries analyzed here), plus a deeper one (this updated version of the Warga database only has data from 1994 until the end of 1999). Hopefully, this quick analysis should ease concerns about the integrity and quality of Datastream bond price data.

102

APPENDIX B

TABLES

103

Variables Life to maturity

Expected sign Uncertain

Rationale Stulz (2003) explains how the relation between time to maturity and credit spreads depends on the relative size of debt and firm value. Helwege and Turner (1999) establish that due to survivorship bias only relatively better rated countries issue longer-term debt. Also, investors might perceive shorter-term sovereign bonds as having higher probability of default and therefore higher expected losses. This belief is reinforced by the fact that some countries' debt do not incorporate cross-default clauses, making easier for countries facing financial distress default first on issues with closer maturities. Longer-term bonds are, in this setting, perceived as safer since countries could have time to implement reforms that bring them out of financial distress. A higher ratio of any of these two measures implies a smaller distance-to-default. So, larger values of them should be associated with higher spreads.

Debt to foreign reserves ratio and Debt to exports ratio Country risk measure

Positive

Positive

Local stock market volatility U.S. Treasury yield curve level

Positive

This measure has a higher value for countries that are perceived to have higher political risks, for instance, higher expropriation risk. The larger the value of this variable, the higher the debt spread. This variable is an imperfect proxy of a country’s wealth volatility. Still, we expect a positive relation since more volatility makes default more likely. Assuming that the country’s wealth follows a risk-neutral drift, higher rates should be associated with higher drifts which in turn should reduce debt spreads. Also, Stulz (2003) shows how debt value decreases with maturity. This reduced the probability of default, and ergo, spreads. We assume a positive slope to signal higher future interest rates. The previous arguments then suggest a negative relation between spreads and the interest rate slope.

Negative

U.S. Treasury yield curve slope World return

Negative

A world index return is included as a proxy of the world economic climate or business cycle. On average, we would expect smaller spreads when the world as a whole is doing well. Table 1. Expected signs on explanatory variables for sovereign sample.

Negative

104

Panel A: Descriptive Statistics for Spreads Credit Spread (%) Mean Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Max 90% 10% Min No. of observations All sample 4.834 4.555 3.195 18.001 39.390 39.173 0.040 0.019 9275 AAA to A+ 0.488 0.253 2.263 15.840 2.204 1.332 0.076 0.038 165 A to BBB2.098 1.369 2.170 12.672 15.250 10.142 0.068 0.019 2213 BB+ to B 4.971 3.261 2.451 14.145 33.181 30.967 0.094 0.046 5450 B- to C 12.365 8.090 1.599 5.063 39.390 39.173 1.408 1.241 829 No rating 4.478 3.860 3.503 18.620 37.455 23.681 1.034 1.019 618

Panel B: Means for Selected Country Variables Mean Debt-to-reserves Debt-to-exports Political risk U.S. Treasury yield level (%) U.S. Treasury yield slope All sample 3.919 40.603 51.260 5.285 1.326 AAA to A+ 0.959 3.349 21.330 A to BBB1.742 12.330 40.480 BB+ to B 4.733 52.654 53.546 B- to C 4.746 39.359 66.028 No rating 1.997 8.207 62.255

Panel C: Other data Number of bonds Number of countries 233 37

The sample includes all non-callable, non-puttable sovereign bonds in U.S. dollars that traded between January 1990 and January 2003. All data is from Datastream. The spread over U.S. Treasuries is computed as the difference between the redemption yield of the sovereign bond and the value of a linear interpolation of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to obtain the yield of a U.S. instrument with identical maturity. Debt/Reserves is computed using all outstanding foreign debt (bank loans, Brady bonds and Eurobonds) divided by the total number of international reserves in current U.S. dollars. Political risk is the value of The Economist Intelligence Unit's country index. Local stock market volatility is the standard volatility computed each month from daily stock market returns in U.S. dollars. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury slope is computed as the difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury notes. The world stock return is the log return of Datastream's world total return index.

Table 2. Summary statistics for sovereign sample.

105

∆Spread over U.S. Treasury Constant ∆Years to maturity ∆Debt to foreign reserves ∆Political risk ∆Political risk lagged ∆Political risk 2nd lag ∆Local volatility lagged ∆U.S. Treasury level ∆U.S. Treasury slope

AAA to BBB0.452 (1.74)* 5.85 (1.87)* 0.048 (0.85) 0.006 (0.62) 0.03 (3.06)*** -0.013 (1.33) 0.003 (0.05) -0.807 (16.24)*** 0.135 (1.75)* -0.79 (5.22)***

BB+ to B
-0.06 (0.49) -0.619 (0.42) -0.009 (0.62) 0.052 (4.46)*** 0.002 (0.15) 0.002 (0.14) 0.088 (11.12)*** -1.088 (12.85)*** 0.664 (5.17)*** -5.613 (25.88)*** 3870 0.30

B- to C
-2.769 (1.55) -34.553 (1.61) 0.755 (7.79)*** 0.133 (3.96)*** 0.008 (0.00) 0.041 (1.20) 0.067 (3.00)*** -0.882 (2.60)*** 1.073 (2.15)** -4.663 (7.03)*** 690 0.22

Overall sample
-0.071 (0.65) -0.833 (0.64) 0.04 (2.78)*** 0.075 (7.86)*** 0.016 (1.64) 0.018 (1.85)* 0.075 (11.69)*** -0.978 (14.32)*** 0.51 (4.86)*** -4.664 (26.74)*** 6316 0.22

Local return lagged

Observations R-squared

1630 0.19

This table shows estimates from an OLS regression model with Newey-West adjusted errors. We estimated the following equation to each bond observation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Debt to foreign reserves ratioi,t + β2*∆Country risk measurei,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*∆Local volatilityi,t-1 + β6*Local returnt-1 + β7*∆Years to maturityi,t + εi,t. We estimated eight different specifications of this basic equation, substituting duration for years to maturity and debt to exports for debt to reserves. Years to maturity is the remaining life of a bond expressed in years, duration is a Macaulay’s duration expressed in years, debt to reserves is the ratio of total debt outstanding (bank loans, Brady and Eurobond issues) denominated in U.S. dollars divided by the total amount of international reserves also denominated in U.S. dollars. Debt to exports is the ratio of total debt outstanding (bank loans, Brady and Eurobond issues) denominated in U.S. dollars divided by the nominal monthly value of exports in U.S. dollars. Political risk is the value of The Economist Intelligence Unit's country index. Local stock market volatility is the standard volatility computed each month from daily stock market returns in U.S. dollars. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury slope is computed as the difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury notes. The world stock return is the log return of Datastream's world total return index. Absolute value of t statistics are in parentheses; *, **, *** denote significance at the 10%; 5%; and 1% level respectively.

Table 3. Sovereign spreads fixed effect regressions.

106

Variables Life to maturity

Expected sign Uncertain

Rationale Stulz (2003) explains how the relation between time to maturity and credit spreads depends on the relative size of debt and firm value. Helwege and Turner (1999) establish that due to survivorship bias only relatively better rated countries issue longer-term debt. Also, investors might perceive shorter-term sovereign bonds as having higher probability of default and therefore higher expected losses. This belief is reinforced by the fact that some countries' debt do not incorporate cross-default clauses, making easier for countries facing financial distress default first on issues with closer maturities. Longer-term bonds are, in this setting, perceived as safer since countries could have time to implement reforms that bring them out of financial distress. A higher leverage ratio increases the probability of a firm facing financial distress. This should increase spreads. Also, from a contingent claims approach, equity return volatility can proxy for firm's value volatility. A higher volatility increases the chance of the firm's value process to cross the threshold at which a firm defaults on its debt. Assuming that the firm's value follows a risk-neutral drift, higher rates should be associated with higher drifts which in turn should reduce debt spreads. Also, Stulz (2003) shows how debt value decreases with maturity. This reduced the probability of default, and ergo, spreads. We assume a positive slope to signal higher future interest rates. The previous arguments then suggest a negative relation between spreads and the interest rate slope. As the economic environment improves, measured by the S&P return, we expect firms to do better and therefore to reduce the probability of defaulting on their debt.

Leverage and Equity return volatility U.S. Treasury yield curve level

Positive

Negative

U.S. Treasury yield curve slope S&P 500 return

Negative

Negative

Table 4. Expected signs on explanatory variables for domestic sample.

107

Panel A: Descriptive Statistics for Debt Spreads No leverage data 2.633 3.017 4.007 24.890 29.989 29.849 0.0021 0.0010 38191

Credit Spread (%) Mean Std. Dev. Skewness Kurtosis Max 90% 10% Min No. of observations Panel B: Means for Selected Variables Mean Leverage Std. Dev. U.S. Treasury yield level (%) U.S. Treasury yield slope

Overall sample 2.393 2.779 4.543 31.661 29.989 29.849 0.0012 0.0007 71831

Low 1.359 1.187 5.621 77.578 26.846 22.659 0.0031 0.0012 11061

Leverage Class Medium High 1.717 1.319 5.210 70.700 29.636 26.812 0.0125 0.0007 11247 3.263 3.566 3.947 22.628 29.847 29.812 0.0279 0.0062 11332

0.343 0.023 5.285 1.326

Panel C: Other data Number of bonds Number of countries 2,930 649

The sample includes all non-callable, non-puttable domestic bonds issued by industrial firms in U.S. dollars that traded between January 1990 and January 2003. All data is from Datastream. The spread over U.S. Treasuries is computed as the difference between the redemption yield of the sovereign bond and the value of a linear interpolation of the U.S. Treasury yield curve to obtain the yield of a U.S. instrument with identical maturity. Leverage is computed as the ratio of book value of debt divided by the sum of book value of debt and market value of equity. Stock market volatility is computed monthly from daily stock market log returns. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury slope is computed as the difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury notes.

Table 5. Summary statistics for domestic sample.

108

∆Spread over U.S. Treasury Constant ∆Years to maturity ∆Leverage ∆leverage lagged ∆Stock return volatility ∆Stock return volatility lagged ∆U.S. Treasury level ∆U.S. Treasury slope S&P return lagged

Low -0.046 (2.18)** -0.591 (2.35)** -0.447 (1.96)** 3.127 (13.80)*** 1.073 (2.43)** 4.141 (9.59)*** -0.218 (14.53)*** -0.002 (0.08) -0.002 (1.99)** 9080 0.07

Leverage Class Medium -0.031 (1.36) -0.141 (0.52) -0.005 (0.03) 0.941 (5.69)*** -0.164 (0.31) 3.323 (6.28)*** -0.338 (22.27)*** 0.023 (0.86) 0.008 (0.09) 9679 0.07

High 0.075 (0.87) 0.834 (0.81) -0.027 (0.09) 6.747 (22.32)*** 3.133 (4.18)*** 11.866 (15.69)*** -0.421 (11.46)*** 0.116 (1.83)* -0.007 (3.32)*** 8709 0.13

Overall sample -0.019 (0.85) -0.249 (0.93) 0.018 (0.12) 4.445 (30.77)*** 2.149 (5.84)*** 8.582 (23.42)*** -0.323 (23.28)*** 0.031 -1.28 -0.003 (4.05)*** 27468 0.09

Observations R-squared

This table shows estimates from an OLS regression model with Newey-West adjusted errors. We estimated the following equation to each bond observation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Leverage ratioi,t + β2*∆Stock return volatilityi,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*S&P index returni,t-1 + β6*∆Years to maturityi,t + εi,t. We estimated six different specifications of this basic equation, substituting duration and modified duration for years to maturity. Years to maturity is the remaining life of a bond expressed in years, duration is a Macaulay’s duration expressed in years, modified duration is estimated as duration divided by (1+ redemption yield).Stock return volatility is the standard volatility of each firm's stock return computed each month from daily log returns in U.S. dollars. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury slope is computed as the difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury notes. The S&P index return is the log return of Datastream's S&P 500 total return index. Absolute value of t statistics are in parentheses; *, **, *** denote significance at the 10%; 5%; and 1% level respectively.

Table 6. Domestic spreads fixed effect regressions.

109

Panel A: Sovereign bins s11 s12 s13 s11 1.000 s12 0.826 1.000 s13 -0.007 0.511 1.000 s21 0.997 0.817 -0.004 s22 0.828 0.953 0.459 s23 0.367 0.781 0.895 s31 0.983 0.821 0.011 s32 0.891 0.896 0.259 s33 0.820 0.932 0.394 Panel B: Domestic bins d11 d12 d13 d11 1.000 d12 0.978 1.000 d13 0.616 0.622 1.000 d21 0.967 0.968 0.744 d22 0.921 0.955 0.707 d23 0.685 0.673 0.856 d31 0.930 0.971 0.679 d32 0.859 0.920 0.712 d33 0.865 0.874 0.876

s21

s22

s23

s31

s32

s33

1.000 0.818 0.369 0.989 0.886 0.801 d21

1.000 0.773 0.822 0.966 0.950 d22

1.000 0.370 0.624 0.708 d23

1.000 0.897 0.806 d31

1.000 0.946 d32

1.000 d33

110

1.000 0.928 0.747 0.954 0.893 0.909

1.000 0.747 0.943 0.973 0.915

1.000 0.633 0.659 0.797

1.000 0.960 0.909

1.000 0.922

1.000

continued...

Table 7 continued
Panel C: Sovereign and Domestic bins s11 s12 s13 s21 s11 1.000 s12 0.826 1.000 s13 -0.007 0.511 1.000 s21 0.997 0.817 -0.004 1.000 s22 0.828 0.953 0.459 0.818 s23 0.367 0.781 0.895 0.369 s31 0.983 0.821 0.011 0.989 s32 0.891 0.896 0.259 0.886 s33 0.820 0.932 0.394 0.801 d11 0.227 0.119 -0.168 0.221 d12 0.248 0.127 -0.173 0.245 d13 -0.211 0.063 0.464 -0.182 d21 0.064 0.073 0.020 0.065 d22 0.194 0.154 -0.004 0.212 d23 -0.156 0.193 0.572 -0.141 d31 0.159 0.062 -0.143 0.160 d32 0.161 0.086 -0.058 0.181 d33 -0.003 0.075 0.173 0.020 s22 s23 s31 s32 s33 d11 d12 d13 d21 d22 d23 d31 d32 d33

1.000 0.773 0.822 0.966 0.950 0.068 0.117 0.092 0.082 0.150 0.100 0.129 0.160 0.116

1.000 0.370 0.624 0.708 -0.087 -0.079 0.388 0.054 0.074 0.440 -0.059 0.032 0.172

1.000 0.897 0.806 0.205 0.242 -0.159 0.065 0.210 -0.124 0.181 0.196 0.040

1.000 0.946 0.101 0.157 -0.046 0.070 0.142 -0.079 0.173 0.177 0.057

1.000 0.100 0.114 -0.094 0.057 0.036 -0.005 0.074 0.005 -0.063

1.000 0.978 0.616 0.967 0.921 0.685 0.930 0.859 0.865

1.000 0.622 0.968 0.955 0.673 0.971 0.920 0.874

1.000 0.744 0.707 0.856 0.679 0.712 0.876

1.000 0.928 0.747 0.954 0.893 0.909

1.000 0.747 0.943 0.973 0.915

111

1.000 0.633 0.659 0.797

1.000 0.960 0.909

1.000 0.922

1.000

This table presents the correlation structure of the residual bins. Each sample (sovereign and domestic) was divided in three maturity categories and three leverage (debt to reserves, in the sovereign case) categories. The cutoff values for each category were determined using the 33rd and 66th centile to ensure an approximately equal number of observations in each bin. Each observation was assigned to a category. To compute the residuals, regressions were conducted in each bin. Then, for each bin, we average across residuals. The bins are named dij and sij for i, j=1, 2, 3, where d stands for domestic and s stands for sovereign, i for maturity category (1 = shot-term, 2 = medium-term, 3 = long-term), and j stand for leverage (debt to reserves) category (1 = low, 2 = medium, 3 = high). For example, d23 refers to a domestic, medium-term, high-leverage bin. Each sovereign bin contains 66 observations, while each domestic bin contains 148 observations.

Table 7. Correlation structure of residuals.

Panel A: Sovereign bins
Component 1 2 3 4 Eigenvalue 6.8483 1.8331 0.1757 0.0710 Difference 5.0152 1.6574 0.1047 0.0406 Proportion 0.7609 0.2037 0.0195 0.0079 Cumulative 0.7609 0.9646 0.9841 0.9920

Eigenvalue 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0

1

2

3 Component

4

5

Eigenvalue 10.0

Panel B: Domestic bins
Component 1 2 3 4 Eigenvalue 7.7606 0.7679 0.2527 0.1385 Difference 6.9927 0.5152 0.1142 0.0932 Proportion 0.8623 0.0853 0.0281 0.0154 Cumulative 0.8623 0.9476 0.9757 0.9911

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 0 1 2 3 Component 4 5

Panel C: Domestic and Sovereign bins
Component 1 2 3 4 Eigenvalue 7.5705 5.9621 2.9687 0.6225 Difference 1.6083 2.9935 2.3462 0.2166 Proportion 0.4206 0.3312 0.1649 0.0346 Cumulative 0.4206 0.7518 0.9167 0.9513

Eigenvalue 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0

1

2

3 Component

4

5

This table presents the results of applying principal components analysis to the residuals. Each sample (sovereign and domestic) was divided in three maturity categories and three leverage (debt to reserves, in the sovereign case) categories. Each observation was assigned to a category. For each bond in each sovereign bin we estimated the following equation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Debt to foreign reserves ratioi,t + β2*∆Country risk measurei,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*∆Local volatilityi,t-1 + β6*Local returnt-1 + β7*∆Years to maturityi,t + εi,t. For bonds in the domestic bins the following equation was estimated: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Leverage ratioi,t + β2*∆Stock return volatilityi,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*S&P index returni,t-1 + β6*∆Years to maturityi,t + εi,t. Residuals for each bond were computed and averaged across bins. For ease of interpretation, only the first four components are shown for each panel.

Table 8. Principal component analysis of residuals. 112

Sovereign bonds Overall ∆Spread over U.S. Treasury Constant AAA to BBB0.203 (0.65) ∆Years to maturity 2.875 (0.77) ∆Debt to foreign reserves 0.103 (0.86) ∆Political risk 0.023 (2.06)** ∆Political risk lagged 0.031 (2.76)*** ∆Political risk 2nd lag -0.01 (0.92) ∆Local volatility lagged -0.005 (0.72) ∆U.S. Treasury level -0.59 (6.80)*** ∆U.S. Treasury slope -0.147 (1.24) Local return lagged 1st factor domestic -0.641 (3.73)*** 0.026 (3.56)*** 2dn factor domestic -0.024 (1.75)* BB+ to B -0.063 (0.81) -0.892 (0.97) 0.035 (2.64)*** 0.019 (2.44)** 0.022 (2.89)*** 0.004 (0.56) 0.054 (10.49)*** -0.495 (6.33)*** -0.207 (1.83)* -3.645 (24.99)*** -0.039 (5.39)*** -0.021 (1.60) B- to C -1.055 (0.35) -14.339 (0.40) 1.047 (6.80)*** 0.086 (2.24)** -0.026 (0.67) 0.046 (1.19) 0.113 (3.95)*** -1.903 (2.37)** 2.163 (2.25)** -6.104 (7.59)*** -0.161 (2.72)*** 0.141 (1.60) sample -0.067 (0.72) -1.213 (1.10) 0.125 (7.01)*** 0.049 (5.77)*** 0.024 (2.83)*** 0.021 (2.42)** 0.052 (9.20)*** -0.59 (6.72)*** -0.035 (0.28) -3.601 (22.78)*** -0.044 (5.42)*** 0.024 (1.69)* 1st factor sovereign lagged 2dn factor sovereign 1st factor sovereign S&P return lagged ∆U.S. Treasury slope ∆U.S. Treasury level ∆Stock return volatility lagged ∆Stock return volatility ∆leverage lagged ∆Leverage ∆Years to maturity ∆Spread over U.S. Treasury Constant

Domestic bonds Leverage Class Low 0.026 (1.14) 0.175 (0.64) -0.673 (2.78)*** 4.122 (17.10)*** 0.936 (2.29)** 4.487 (11.46)*** -0.085 (3.65)*** -0.154 (4.26)*** -0.004 (4.55)*** 0.006 (3.20)*** -0.001 (0.48) 0.004 (1.84)* Medium -0.019 (0.83) -0.006 (0.02) 0.147 (0.86) 1.19 (7.08)*** -1.009 (1.86)* 3.281 (6.39)*** -0.17 (6.13)*** -0.021 (0.49) -0.002 (1.81)* 0.004 (1.68)* -0.008 (2.26)** 0.001 (0.53) High 0.103 (1.06) 1.009 (0.88) 0.198 (0.56) 7.622 (21.00)*** 2.033 (2.26)** 12.396 (14.37)*** -0.26 (3.25)*** -0.106 (0.87) -0.009 (3.07)*** 0.006 (2.84)** 0.015 (1.44) -0.006 (0.77) Overall sample 0.019 (0.68) 0.109 (0.33) 0.141 (0.83) 5.393 (31.64)*** 1.495 (3.57)*** 9.197 (22.91)*** -0.18 (6.42)*** -0.091 (2.11)** -0.005 (4.92)*** 0.005 (2.35)** 0.003 (0.89) -0.001 (0.53)

113

continued...

Table 9 continued
1st factor domestic lagged 0.013 (1.85)* 2dn factor domestic lagged -0.084 (4.04)*** Observations R-squared 1405 0.20 0.036 (5.07)*** -0.13 (6.79)*** 3460 0.35 -0.192 (2.93)*** 0.492 (2.74)*** 513 0.31 0.002 0.00 -0.07 (3.23)*** 5504 0.20 Observations R-squared 6630 0.11 5735 0.08 5864 0.16 18229 0.12 2dn factor sovereign lagged -0.013 (3.23)*** -0.015 (2.90)*** -0.003 (0.17) -0.004 (0.78)

This table shows estimates from an OLS regression model with Newey-West adjusted errors. We estimated the following equation to each sovereign bond observation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Debt to foreign reserves ratioi,t + β2*∆Country risk measurei,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*∆Local volatilityi,t-1 + β6*Local returnt-1 + β7*∆Years to maturityi,t+ β8*1st factor domestict + β9*2nd factor domestict + εi,t. For each domestic bond. we estimated the following equation: ∆Spreadi,t = Constant + β1*∆Leverage ratioi,t + β2*∆Stock return volatilityi,t + β3*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve levelt + β4*∆U.S. Treasury yield curve slopet + β5*S&P index returni,t-1 + β6*∆Years to maturityi,t + β8*1st factor sovereignt + β9*2nd factor sovereignt + εi,t. Years to maturity is the remaining life of a bond expressed in years, debt to reserves is the ratio of total debt outstanding (bank loans, Brady and Eurobond issues) denominated in U.S. dollars divided by the total amount of international reserves also denominated in U.S. dollars. Political risk is the value of The Economist Intelligence Unit's country index. Local stock market volatility is the standard volatility computed each month from daily stock market returns in U.S. dollars. The U.S. Treasury yield level is the yield of the 10 year U.S. Treasury note. The U.S. Treasury slope is computed as the difference between the yield of the 10 year and the 2 year U.S. Treasury notes. The S&P stock return is the log return of Datastream's S&PCOMP total return index. Stock return volatility is the standard volatility of each firm's stock return computed each month from daily log returns in U.S. dollars. The S&P index return is the log return of Datastream's S&P 500 total return index. Absolute value of t statistics are in parentheses; *, **, *** denote significance at the 10%; 5%; and 1% level respectively.

Table 9. Sovereign and domestic regressions including the common factors.

114

Equation 1st factor domestic 1st factor sovereign 2nd factor domestic 2nd factor sovereign 1st factor domestic 1st factor domestic Lag 1 Lag 2 1st factor sovereign Lag 1 Lag 2 2nd factor domestic Lag 1 Lag 2 2nd factor sovereign Lag 1 Lag 2 ∆flowstocks ∆flowbonds ∆netreserves ∆onoff Constant 1st factor sovereign 1st factor domestic Lag 1 Lag 2 1st factor sovereign Lag 1 Lag 2 2nd factor domestic Lag 1 Lag 2 2nd factor sovereign Lag 1 Lag 2 ∆flowstocks ∆flowbonds ∆netreserves ∆onoff Constant

Obs 59 59 59 59 Coeff. -0.060 0.014 -0.072 0.424 -0.226 -0.500 0.188 0.241 -0.032 -0.135 6.786 9.751 0.309 Coeff. 0.225 -0.179 0.128 -0.119 -0.464 0.469 0.388 -0.113 -0.052 -0.312 18.746 18.549 -0.055

R-squared No exog. All vars. vars. 0.3684 0.4496 0.0586 0.3769 0.2029 0.4978 0.1490 0.6732 Std. Error 0.120 0.115 0.098 0.108 0.298 0.282 0.219 0.222 0.017 0.056 5.752 9.013 0.222 Std. Error 0.136 0.131 0.112 0.123 0.340 0.322 0.250 0.253 0.019 0.064 6.564 10.286 0.253 z -0.50 0.12 -0.73 3.94 -0.76 -0.77 0.86 1.09 -1.880 -2.420 1.18 1.08 1.39 z 1.65 -1.36 1.14 -0.97 -1.36 1.46 1.55 -0.45 -2.710 -4.910 2.86 1.8 -0.22 P>z 0.614 0.902 0.467 0.000*** 0.448 0.427 0.389 0.278 0.060* 0.015** 0.238 0.279 0.164 P>z 0.099* 0.174 0.256 0.333 0.172 0.145 0.120 0.654 0.007* 0.000*** 0.004*** 0.071* 0.827 2nd factor domestic 1st factor domestic Lag 1 Lag 2 1st factor sovereign Lag 1 Lag 2 2nd factor domestic Lag 1 Lag 2 2nd factor sovereign Lag 1 Lag 2 ∆flowstocks ∆flowbonds ∆netreserves ∆onoff Constant 2nd factor sovereign 1st factor domestic Lag 1 Lag 2 1st factor sovereign Lag 1 Lag 2 2nd factor domestic Lag 1 Lag 2 2nd factor sovereign Lag 1 Lag 2 ∆flowstocks ∆flowbonds ∆netreserves ∆onoff Constant Coeff. -0.064 0.076 -0.091 0.079 0.244 -0.368 0.187 0.123 0.017 0.043 13.740 -0.083 -0.104 Coeff. -0.024 0.081 0.002 0.112 0.326 -0.381 0.112 0.287 0.054 -0.112 13.553 -0.731 0.028 Std. Error 0.060 0.058 0.050 0.054 0.151 0.143 0.111 0.112 0.008 0.028 2.909 4.558 0.112 Std. Error 0.061 0.058 0.050 0.055 0.152 0.143 0.111 0.113 0.009 0.028 2.924 4.582 0.113 z -1.06 1.31 -1.82 1.45 1.62 -2.58 1.69 1.1 1.980 1.770 4.72 -0.02 -0.92 z -0.39 1.38 0.04 2.06 2.15 -2.66 1.01 2.54 6.360 -3.950 4.64 -0.16 0.25 P>z 0.290 0.189 0.068* 0.146 0.106 0.010*** 0.092* 0.273 0.048** 0.076* 0.000*** 0.986 0.356 P>z 0.696 0.168 0.967 0.040** 0.032** 0.008*** 0.312 0.011** 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.000*** 0.873 0.801

This table shows estimates a vector autoregression model of the following form:

FacSovt = a1 + ∑ β1 j FacSovt − j + ∑ γ 1 j FacDomt − j + δ 1 X t +ε1
j =1 j =1
k

k

k

FacDom = a2 + ∑ β 2 j FacSov− j +∑γ 2 j FacDom− j + δ 2 X t +ε 2 t t t
j =1 j =1

k

The first and second domestic factors are the factors extracted from the principal component analysis of the residuals of equation (2) applied to the domestic bins. The first and second sovereign factors are extracted from the principal component analysis of the residuals of equation (1) applied to the sovereign bins. Net borrowed reserves is computed as total borrowing minus extended credit minus excess reserves, divided by total reserves. Onoff is the difference between the on-the-run thirty year U.S. Treasury bond and the most recent off-the-run bond. Flowsstocks is from the IFC’s statistics and is the amount of money flowing into equity mutual funds. Flowbonds is from the same source and represents the flows into bond funds; *, **, *** denote significance at the 10%; 5%; and 1% level respectively.

Table 10. Vector autoregression model with exogenous variables.

115

Argentina Local index
Mean Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Observations Unconditional correlation with the S&P 500 0.00022 0.12014 -0.13380 0.01905 1934

Brazil Local index
0.00030 0.15302 -0.12137 0.02190 1694

Chile Local index
0.00067 0.17549 -0.14989 0.01559 2870

ADRs
0.00056 0.25784 -0.51544 0.03211 1934

ADRs
-0.00407 0.40547 -0.69315 0.03040 1694

ADRs
0.00074 0.16866 -0.15095 0.01602 2870

0.42392

0.17064

0.37893

0.17120

0.15943

0.16059

Colombia Local index
Mean Maximum Minimum Std. Dev. Observations Unconditional correlation with the S&P 500 -0.00029 0.08753 -0.15875 0.01231 2298

Mexico Local index
0.00052 0.19022 -0.25528 0.01954 2870

Venezuela Local index
-0.00027 0.29747 -0.51028 0.02891 2870

S&P 500

ADRs
-0.00037 0.15127 -0.15944 0.01488 2298

ADRs
0.00002 0.19088 -0.27844 0.01841 2870

ADRs
0.00033 0.28549 -0.50828 0.03060 2870 0.00052 0.04928 -0.07022 0.00928 2870

0.03345

-0.00292

0.40539

0.34982

0.05350

0.03456

1.00000

This table provides with basic statistics for the data. Log returns in dollars were calculated using daily data from Datastream. In each case, the local index corresponds to the country index return available in Datastream. ADRs is an equally weighted index of live ADRs of each country in the U.S. Argentina, Brazil and Colombia have less observations because of data conflicts. Specifically, Argentina and Brazil, have problems when backfilling series because of changes in their legal currencies and monetary regimes.

Table 11. Summary statistics.

116

Panel A: Extreme correlations for pairs formed by S&P and local stock market returns. Number of left tail exceedances 25 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela 0.0563 0.3190 0.1107 NA 0.3772 0.0563 50 0.0572 0.2001 0.1923 0.0285 0.3812 0.0572 100 0.1393 0.3525 0.1816 0.0979 0.3709 0.1393 200 0.1805 0.3471 0.2165 0.1263 0.4407 0.1805 300 0.1902 0.4936 0.2281 0.2085 0.4691 0.1902 300 0.1433 0.4643 0.2132 0.2490 0.3731 0.1433 Number of right tail exceedances 200 0.0917 0.3955 0.1456 0.1576 0.3170 0.0917 100 0.0429 0.3511 0.0983 0.0426 0.3029 0.0429 50 0.0835 0.2134 0.0566 0.0284 0.3416 0.0835 25 NA 0.1093 0.0566 NA 0.2194 NA

Panel B: Extreme correlations for pairs formed by S&P and en equally weighted basket of ADRs. Number of left tail exceedances 25 Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Venezuela 0.2348 0.3203 0.2126 0.0566 0.2290 NA 50 0.3324 0.3029 0.1947 0.0288 0.2809 0.0566 100 0.3705 0.4138 0.1697 0.0990 0.3201 0.0853 200 0.3850 0.4194 0.2168 0.1398 0.4263 0.1402 300 0.4785 0.4880 0.2493 0.1708 0.4378 0.1759 300 0.3927 0.4613 0.2040 0.1772 0.3250 0.1436 Number of right tail exceedances 200 0.3476 0.3858 0.1449 0.1243 0.2634 0.0849 100 0.2505 0.3325 0.0841 0.0286 0.2487 0.0568 50 0.2485 0.2659 0.0285 0.0284 0.2198 0.0562 25 NA 0.2119 NA NA 0.1659 NA

Panel C: Extreme correlations for Mexico before and after the 1995 Mexican crisis. Number of left tail exceedances 25 Local before Local after ADRs before ADRS after 0.1149 0.3944 0.1144 0.3390 50 0.2457 0.3695 0.2946 0.2868 100 0.3235 0.4586 0.2881 0.4070 200 0.3816 0.5570 0.3737 0.5022 300 0.4681 0.6159 0.4337 0.5973 300 0.4348 0.5301 0.3732 0.4909 Number of right tail exceedances 200 0.3546 0.4340 0.2715 0.3949 100 0.2516 0.3397 0.1571 0.2988 50 0.1741 0.3213 0.1437 0.2711 25 0.1780 0.2673 0.1703 0.2192

This table shows how correlations change as we move further into the tails. NA stands for not available, since in those cases the parameters of the dependence function could not be estimated. All data was obtained form Datastream. All figures are in dollars. Cutoff point for panel C is 12/29/1994. The equally weighted basket of ADRs was calculated considering only the live issues.

Table 12. Extreme correlations using different number of tail exceedances.

117

Country

Date of initial rating 8/25/1993 11/30/1994 11/23/1998 12/7/1992 12/7/1992 6/21/1993 7/28/1993 1/15/1997 12/7/1992 4/20/1992 12/7/1992 11/9/1999 11/5/1996 10/1/1988 2/26/1997 9/13/1990 7/29/1992 12/21/1994 1/22/1997 12/18/1997 6/30/1993 6/1/1995 12/7/1992 2/1/1996 10/7/1996 2/15/1994 10/3/1994 6/14/1989 4/28/1996 12/21/2001 2/14/1994 7/24/1991

Maximum rating BB BBBB ABBB+ BBBABBBA ABBB B+ BB AABBA+ BBBB+ BB+ BB BB+ BBB+ A+ ABB BBB BBBA B+ B BBBBB

Minimum rating SD B B BBB BBB BB BBB BB+ BBBBB+ SD B BBB+ BBBBBB SD BB BBBBBB AA BBB SD BBBB BBBBB CC CCC+

Number of changes 9 6 4 3 3 3 4 2 4 5 16 2 4 11 4 8 4 8 2 2 3 4 3 3 11 6 3 5 5 1 8 8

Argentina Brazil Bulgaria Chile China Colombia Czech Egypt Greece Hungary Indonesia Jamaica Kazakhstan Korea Lebanon Malaysia Mexico Pakistan Panama Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Russia Slovakia South Africa Thailand Turkey Ukraine Uruguay Venezuela

This table shows a breakdown of sovereign rating changes issued by Standard and Poor’s. S&P uses 24 different categories, going from D (lowest) to AAA (highest), with a “+” or “-“ to denote issuers above or below the mean in each category. Ratings above BBB- (inclusive) are considered as investment grade. SD stands for 'Selective Default'. Date of initial rating is the date when the country was first rated by Standard and Poor's. Max and min ratings are the highest and lowest qualifications issued to that country from the date of initial rating to the end of 2003. Table 13. Sovereign rating changes by Standard & Poor's.

118

Country

Date of initial rating 11/18/1986 11/18/1986 9/27/1996 5/25/1999 5/23/1988 8/4/1993 6/22/1998 7/6/2001 5/24/1994 12/27/1993 3/14/1994 3/30/1998 11/11/1996 4/9/1998 2/26/1997 11/18/1986 2/20/1991 11/23/1994 1/22/1997 7/20/1999 7/1/1993 6/1/1995 11/18/1986 9/22/1999 11/22/1996 5/15/1995 10/3/1994 8/1/1989 5/5/1992 2/6/1998 10/15/1993 6/3/1987

Maximum rating Ba3 Ba1 B1 Baa1 A3 Ba1 A1 Ba1 A1 A1 Baa3 Ba3 Baa3 A3 B1 A1 Baa2 Ba3 Ba1 Ba3 Ba1 A2 Aa2 A3 Ba2 A3 Baa2 A2 Baa3 B2 Baa3 Ba1

Minimum rating Caa3 B2 B3 Baa1 Ba2 Baa1 Baa3 Ba1 B3 B1 Ba1 B2 Baa3 Ba2 Caa1

Number of changes 19 9 3 1 6 7 2 1 7 9 4 1 6 6 2 14 8 7 1 1 4 3 5 2 10 4 3 8 9 8 7 9

Argentina Brazil Bulgaria Chile China Colombia Czech Egypt Greece Hungary Indonesia Jamaica Kazakhstan Korea Lebanon Malaysia Mexico Pakistan Panama Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Russia Slovakia South Africa Thailand Turkey Ukraine Uruguay Venezuela

Ba3 Baa3 A1 Baa2 B3 Ba1 Baa3 Ba1 B1 Caa1 B3 Caa1

This table shows a breakdown of sovereign rating changes issued by Moody’s. Moody’s has 27 categories, ranging from a lowest rating of C to a highest rating of Aaa. Moody's adds the number 1, 2, or 3 after the rating to signal an issuer above the mean, on the mean or below the mean in each category, respectively. All ratings above Baa3 (inclusive) are considered as investment grade rating. Date of initial rating is the date when the country was first rated by Moody's. Max and min ratings are the highest and lowest qualifications issued to that country from the date of initial rating to the end of 2003. Table 14. Sovereign rating changes by Moody's. 119

Panel A. Sovereign rating downgrades Event day
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Panel B. Sovereign rating upgrades Cumulative abnormal return
-0.0010 -0.0040 -0.0136 -0.0248 -0.0350 -0.0422 -0.0429 -0.0362 -0.0314 -0.0282 -0.0279

Abnormal return
-0.0010 -0.0031 -0.0095 -0.0112 -0.0102 -0.0072 -0.0007 0.0067 0.0048 0.0033 0.0003

t-stat
-0.2721 -0.8707 -2.6985 -3.1701 -2.8933 -2.0330 -0.1850 1.8822 1.3562 0.9219 0.0793

Event day
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Abnormal return
-0.0001 0.0000 0.0030 -0.0034 -0.0026 0.0023 -0.0014 0.0027 0.0007 -0.0029 -0.0016

Cumulative abnormal return
-0.0001 -0.0001 0.0029 -0.0005 -0.0031 -0.0008 -0.0023 0.0005 0.0012 -0.0016 -0.0033

t-stat
-0.0342 0.0007 1.0155 -1.1558 -0.8640 0.7572 -0.4817 0.9225 0.2435 -0.9571 -0.5410

120

Total number of events: 81 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) (-1, +1)
CAR t-stat -0.0279 -2.3768 -0.0181 -2.9510

Total number of events: 57 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) (-1, +1)
CAR t-stat -0.0033 -0.3300 -0.0018 -0.3398

This table presents results from an event study analysis conducted on datastream's local stock market indices. Returns were computed using the market model with datastream's world market (TOTMKWD) as the market return and a (t-244, t-6) estimation window. The t-statistic is computed as the ratio of the mean abnormal return to the estimated standard deviation from the time series of mean abnormal returns. All returns are in U.S. dollars. Table 15. Stock index results using Standard and Poor's ratings.

Panel A. Sovereign rating downgrades Cumulative Abnormal Event day abnormal return return
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Total number of events: 53 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) CAR t-stat -0.0094 -0.7586 (-1, +1) -0.0068 -1.0508 0.0038 -0.0143 0.0002 -0.0030 -0.0082 -0.0002 0.0016 0.0052 -0.0010 -0.0003 0.0068 0.0038 -0.0104 -0.0102 -0.0132 -0.0214 -0.0216 -0.0200 -0.0149 -0.0159 -0.0162 -0.0094

Panel B. Sovereign rating upgrades t-stat
1.0324 -3.8333 0.0521 -0.8008 -2.1876 -0.0652 0.4326 1.3825 -0.2772 -0.0776 1.8262

Event day
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Abnormal return
-0.0056 0.0024 0.0057 0.0010 -0.0010 0.0035 -0.0038 -0.0036 -0.0025 -0.0013 -0.0048

Cumulative abnormal return
-0.0056 -0.0032 0.0026 0.0036 0.0026 0.0061 0.0023 -0.0013 -0.0038 -0.0051 -0.0099

t-stat
-1.2315 0.5359 1.2607 0.2302 -0.2304 0.7661 -0.8270 -0.7957 -0.5419 -0.2764 -1.0575

121

Total number of events: 45 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) CAR t-stat -0.0099 -0.6535 (-1, +1) -0.0013 -0.1681

This table presents results from an event study analysis conducted on datastream's local stock market indices. Returns were computed using the market model with datastream's world market (TOTMKWD) as the market return and a (t-244, t-6) estimation window. The t-statistic is computed as the ratio of the mean abnormal return to the estimated standard deviation from the time series of mean abnormal returns. All returns are in U.S. dollars. Table 16. Stock index results using Moody's ratings.

Event day
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Abnormal return
-0.0025 -0.0021 0.0022 0.0003 -0.0068 -0.0050 0.0078 0.0045 0.0037 0.0052 0.0027

Cumulative abnormal return
-0.0025 -0.0046 -0.0024 -0.0021 -0.0089 -0.0139 -0.0061 -0.0016 0.0021 0.0073 0.0100

t-stat
-0.4332 -0.3671 0.3878 0.0484 -1.1842 -0.8701 1.3625 0.7824 0.6429 0.8970 0.4699

Total number of events: 17 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) CAR t-stat 0.0100 0.5235 (-1, +1) -0.0040 -0.3994

This table presents results from an event study analysis conducted on datastream's local stock market indices. The event is the date when a country was rated for the first time by either agency. We have 10 instances in which S&P was the initial rating agency and 7 where Moody's was. Returns were computed using the market model with datastream's world market (TOTMKWD) as the market return and a (t-244, t-6) estimation window. The t-statistic is computed as the ratio of the mean abnormal return to the estimated standard deviation from the time series of mean abnormal returns. All returns are in U.S. dollars. Table 17. Stock index results using initial ratings.

122

No. of pairs of events

S&P

Moody's

First rating

1

4/2/1997 10/2/1997

S&P

2

3/26/2001 3/28/2001

S&P

3

5/8/2001 6/4/2001

S&P

4

7/12/2001 7/13/2001

S&P

5

10/9/2001 10/12/2001

S&P

6

11/6/2001 12/20/2001

S&P

7

11/30/1994 11/30/1994

S&P

8 1/14/1999 9 1/3/2001 10 7/2/2002

9/3/1998

Moody's

10/16/2000

Moody's

S&P 8/12/2002

11

11/7/2001 12/19/2001

S&P

This table has the sequence of events identified as pairs of rating changes for Argentina. We define a pair of events as any two rating changes by both agencies that took place within a six month period. The earliest announcement within each pair is what we consider the first rating. Table 18. First ratings for Argentina.

123

Panel A. Downgrades S&P's downgrades Event day -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Abnormal return -0.0099 -0.0170 -0.0115 -0.0159 -0.0113 -0.0058 0.0059 0.0134 0.0039 -0.0179 0.0060 Cumulative abnormal return -0.0099 -0.0269 -0.0384 -0.0543 -0.0655 -0.0713 -0.0654 -0.0520 -0.0482 -0.0660 -0.0600 t-stat -1.6574 -2.8341 -1.9180 -2.6508 -1.8808 -0.9647 0.9902 2.2295 0.6472 -2.9800 1.0030 Event day -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Abnormal return 0.0079 -0.0189 0.0144 -0.0002 0.0043 -0.0037 -0.0054 -0.0010 0.0042 0.0102 -0.0101 Moody's downgrades Cumulative abnormal return 0.0079 -0.0110 0.0034 0.0032 0.0075 0.0037 -0.0017 -0.0027 0.0015 0.0117 0.0016

t-stat 1.3997 -3.3419 2.5381 -0.0346 0.7592 -0.6588 -0.9618 -0.1792 0.7488 1.8042 -1.7839

Total number of events: 21 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) CAR t-stat Panel B. Upgrades S&P's upgrades Event day -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 Abnormal return -0.0038 -0.0037 0.0038 -0.0117 -0.0086 0.0043 0.0062 0.0071 0.0043 -0.0069 0.0003 Cumulative abnormal return -0.0038 -0.0075 -0.0037 -0.0154 -0.0240 -0.0197 -0.0135 -0.0064 -0.0021 -0.0090 -0.0087 t-stat -0.5489 -0.5444 0.5484 -1.7052 -1.2560 0.6301 0.9032 1.0338 0.6272 -1.0068 0.0447 -0.0600 -3.0199 (-1, +1) -0.0111 -1.6711

Total number of events: 19 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) CAR t-stat 0.0016 0.0874 (-1, +1) -0.0049 -0.4973

Event day -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Moody's upgrades Cumulative Abnormal abnormal return return -0.0013 0.0071 0.0004 0.0029 0.0015 -0.0001 0.0003 -0.0055 0.0009 0.0003 -0.0001 -0.0013 0.0058 0.0062 0.0091 0.0106 0.0105 0.0108 0.0052 0.0062 0.0065 0.0064

t-stat -0.2074 1.1435 0.0575 0.4663 0.2418 -0.0148 0.0457 -0.8889 0.1516 0.0477 -0.0109

Total number of events: 17 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) CAR t-stat -0.0087 -0.3841 (-1, +1) 0.0019 0.1601

Total number of events: 21 Cumulative abnormal returns (-5, +5) CAR t-stat 0.0064 0.3112 (-1, +1) 0.0017 0.1574

This table uses the events we identified as pairs of rating changes for all countries in our sample. We define a pair of events as any two rating changes by both agencies that took place within a six month period. The earliest announcement within each pair is what we consider the first rating. Results are from an event study analysis using stock market indices. Returns were computed using the market model with datastream's world market (TOTMKWD) as the market return and a (t-244, t-6) estimation window. The t-statistic is computed as the ratio of the mean abnormal return to the estimated standard deviation from the time series of mean abnormal returns. All returns are in U.S. dollars.

Table19. Stock market reaction to the first rating by either agency. 124

Panel A: Sovereign credit downgrades All firms CAR (-5, +5) z-stat CAR (-1, +1) z-stat No. of events -0.0830 (4.2709) -0.0475 (4.6847) 2,523 ADRs CAR (-5, +5) z-stat CAR (-1, +1) z-stat No. of events -0.0808 (4.1059) -0.0466 (4.5315) 337 No ADRs -0.0833 (4.0653) -0.0477 (4.4516) 2,186 No international debt -0.0718 (3.8425) -0.0382 (3.9128) 1,956 No ADR and international debt -0.0814 (4.1356) -0.0456 (4.4323) 2,379

Panel B: Sovereign credit upgrades All firms CAR (-5, +5) z-stat CAR (-1, +1) z-stat No. of events -0.0030 (0.2798) -0.0001 (0.0169) 2,804 ADRs CAR (-5, +5) z-stat CAR (-1, +1) z-stat No. of events -0.0073 (0.5128) 0.0031 0.4166 384 No ADRs -0.0022 (0.2075) -0.0006 (0.1021) 2,420 No international debt -0.0013 (0.1526) -0.0011 (0.2414) 2,188 No ADR and international debt -0.0023 (0.2213) -0.0003 (0.0599) 2,634

International debt CAR (-5, +5) z-stat CAR (-1, +1) z-stat No. of events -0.1223 (4.4765) -0.0798 (5.5943) 567

International debt CAR (-5, +5) z-stat CAR (-1, +1) z-stat No. of events -0.0122 (0.5378) 0.0028 (0.2383) 616

ADR and International debt CAR (-5, +5) z-stat CAR (-1, +1) z-stat No. of events -0.1058 (4.0382) -0.0793 (5.7954) 144

ADR and International debt CAR (-5, +5) z-stat CAR (-1, +1) z-stat No. of events -0.0181 (0.7640) 0.0034 (0.2711) 170

This table presents CARs for two splits of the original sample. First, we split our sample in firms that have American Deposit Receipts (ADR) trading abroad and those who do not. ADR data is from Citibank and The Bank of New York. We require firms to have an active ADR of level 1, 2 or 3 trading abroad at the time of the sovereign downgrade. The second split is by firms that have internationally traded debt and those who do not. International debt data is from Datastream. We require firms to have at least one outstanding foreign bond or eurobond at the time of the sovereign downgrade. Returns were computed using the market model with datastream's world market (TOTMKWD) as the market return. All returns are in U.S. dollars. Absolute value of z-statistics in parentheses, z-stats are computed using the time series standard deviation of the market model residuals multiplied times the square root of the number of days in the event window as the estimate for the abnormal returns' standard deviation.

Table 20. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for Stocks with International Financing.

125

Panel A: 3-day CAR (-1, +1) regressions for all stocks, sovereign downgrades, dollar returns
(1) Constant ADR dummy International debt dummy ADR * Size International debt * Size Log (GDP per capita) YES (2) YES 0.0099 (1.4876) -0.0107 (1.9484)* 0.0053 (1.1792) -0.0011 (0.2919) 0.4216 (6.0513)*** Stock market cap / GDP Size Intangibles / Total assets Revenues / Total assets Inventories / Total assets Debt / Total assets -0.0032 (1.7704)* -0.0009 (0.4802) 0.0015 (5.3021)*** (3) YES -0.0657 (0.9943) 0.0084 (0.1581) (4) YES (5) YES (6) YES -0.0821 (1.2439) 0.0535 (1.0386) 0.0064 (1.4207) -0.0044 (1.2461) 0.4664 (5.4981)*** 0.0017 (5.1709)*** (7) YES -0.1004 (1.4888) 0.0324 (0.6001) 0.0078 (1.6818)* -0.0028 (0.7533) 0.4701 (5.5395)*** 0.0017 (5.2224)*** -0.0026 (1.3318) 0.3343 (2.7927)*** 0.0011 (2.4618)** -0.0086 (1.8790)* -0.0162 (0.3324) 0.0053 (1.4219) -0.0034 (0.1056) 0.0239 (1.5470) 0.0120 (1.9826)** 0.0018 (0.3539) 0.3263 (2.7221)*** 0.0011 (2.3959)** -0.0055 (1.2139) -0.0190 (0.3895) 0.0052 (1.3845) -0.0060 (0.1896) 0.0219 (1.4132) (8) YES -0.1585 (1.8107)* -0.0295 (0.4085) (9) YES (10) YES -0.1649 (1.9032)* 0.0322 (0.4498) 0.0125 (2.0761)** -0.0027 (0.5328) 0.3664 (3.5247)*** 0.0013 (3.3914)*** -0.0084 (1.9410)* -0.0129 (0.2755) 0.0054 (1.5429) -0.0051 (0.1728) 0.0145 (1.0509) (11) YES -0.1838 (1.9701)** 0.0419 (0.5429) 0.0139 (2.1411)** -0.0034 (0.6373) 0.3294 (2.7491)*** 0.0011 (2.4412)** -0.0080 (1.7214)* -0.0165 (0.3386) 0.0055 (1.4566) -0.0030 (0.0935) 0.0248 (1.5966)

126

continued...

Cash / Assets

0.0352 (1.3339)

0.0326 (1.2321) 1,487 27.59% 1,613 27.80%

0.0341 (1.2904) 1,487 27.96%

Observations R-squared

2,523 24.70%

2,523 24.86%

2,161 26.11%

2,161 26.01%

2,523 25.96%

2,161 27.33%

2,161 27.39%

1,487 27.89%

Panel B: 11 day CAR (-5, +5) regressions for all stocks, sovereign downgrades, dollar returns
(1) Constant ADR dummy International debt dummy ADR * Size YES (2) YES 0.0151 (1.5086) -0.0127 (1.5469) 0.0085 (1.2667) International debt * Size Log (GDP per capita) Stock market cap / GDP Size Intangibles / Total assets Revenues / Total assets Inventories / Total assets -0.0048 (1.771299)* -0.0025 (0.8654) 0.0007 (0.1233) 0.4994 (4.7786)*** 0.0003 (0.8165) (3) YES -0.1049 (1.0680) -0.0111 (0.1409) (4) YES (5) YES (6) YES -0.1006 (1.0211) 0.0584 (0.7589) 0.0081 (1.1928) -0.0045 (0.8546) 0.4813 (3.8018)*** 0.0001 (0.1940) (7) YES -0.1311 (1.3027) 0.0230 (0.2865) 0.0103 (1.4948) -0.0018 (0.3320) 0.4875 (3.8493)*** 0.0001 (0.2554) -0.0044 (1.4891) 0.0503 (0.2834) -0.0022 (3.2657)*** -0.0034 (0.5060) -0.0206 (0.2857) -0.0007 (0.1188) 0.0492 (1.0454) 0.0138 (1.5355) -0.0004 (0.0505) 0.0409 (0.2301) -0.0022 (3.3085)*** 0.0014 (0.2068) -0.0262 (0.3619) -0.0008 (0.1490) 0.0438 (0.9317) (8) YES -0.1747 (1.3464) -0.0014 (0.0129) (9) YES (10) YES -0.2232 (1.7147)* 0.0850 (0.7913) 0.0173 (1.9026)* -0.0066 (0.8832) 0.3748 (2.4009)** -0.0001 (0.2429) -0.0038 (0.5805) -0.0134 (0.1904) 0.0003 (0.0524) 0.0412 (0.9352) (11) YES -0.2266 (1.6399) 0.0957 (0.8359) 0.0176 (1.8344)* -0.0075 (0.9377) 0.0416 (0.2344) -0.0022 (3.2858)*** -0.0023 (0.3335) -0.0219 (0.3030) -0.0003 (0.0600) 0.0495 (1.0513)

127

continued...

Table 21 continued
Debt / Total assets Cash / Assets 0.0314 (1.3685) 0.0500 (1.2779) Observations R-squared 2,523 15.29% 2,523 15.42% 2,161 16.84% 2,161 16.66% 2,523 16.20% 2,161 17.66% 2,161 17.75% 1,487 21.56% 0.0283 (1.2321) 0.0466 (1.1876) 1,487 21.27% 1,613 20.05% 0.0138 (0.6669) 0.0325 (1.4151) 0.0481 (1.2266) 1,487 21.66%

The dependent variable is the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) computed using market model adjusted returns á la Brown and Warner (1985). All returns are in U.S. dollars. All figures used on the right-hand side of the regressions are converted to U.S. dollars using then prevailing exchange rates collected from Datastream. All items except GDP per capita and stock market cap / GDP are from Worldscope. GDP per capita and stock market cap / GDP are from the World Bank's Economic Indicators database. Size is Total assets from Worldscope. The following are the Worldscope codes for our variables: Intangible assets (02649), Total assets (02999), Tota debt (03255), Total revenues (07240), Cash plus short term investments (02001). ADR dummy is a dummy variable that takes a value of one when the firm has an ADR issue level 1, 2 or 3. International debt dummy is a dummy variable that takes a value of one when the firm has at least a foreign bond or an eurobond issue outstanding. We control for country fixed effects using country dummies (not reported). Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses. We correct for heteroskedasticity using White's (1980) covariance estimator. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.

Table 21. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for all stocks following a sovereign rating downgrade 128

Panel A: 3-day CAR (-1, +1) regressions for all stocks, sovereign upgrades, dollar returns
(1) Constant ADR dummy International debt dummy ADR * Size International debt * Size YES (2) YES -0.0026 (0.8060) 0.0040 (1.4296) -0.0001 (0.0514) 0.0002 (0.1309) 0.0428 (2.5468)** Stock market cap / GDP Size Intangibles / Total assets Revenues / Total assets Inventories / Total assets -0.0008 (0.9591) -0.0011 (1.2226) -0.0004 (7.9173)*** (3) YES 0.0023 (0.0765) 0.0001 (0.0060) (4) YES (5) YES (6) YES 0.0133 (0.4412) 0.0093 (0.4190) -0.0009 (0.4353) -0.0005 (0.3252) 0.0445 (2.4579)** -0.0004 (7.7554)*** (7) YES 0.0068 (0.2222) 0.0017 (0.0752) -0.0004 (0.1985) 0.0001 (0.0523) 0.0461 (2.5379)** -0.0004 (7.7179)*** -0.0010 (1.0835) -0.0462 (1.8766)* 0.0003 (2.1044)** 0.0027 (1.1843) -0.0087 (0.4910) -0.0038 (1.8439)* 0.0178 (1.2028) -0.0014 (0.5607) 0.0015 (0.8020) -0.0460 (1.8731)* 0.0004 (2.1960)** 0.0019 (0.8274) -0.0073 (0.4098) -0.0039 (1.8938)* 0.0185 (1.2530) (8) YES 0.0213 (0.5990) -0.0164 (0.5905) (9) YES (10) YES 0.0271 (0.7216) -0.0293 (1.0266) -0.0016 (0.6418) 0.0022 (1.1512) 0.0473 (2.2399)** -0.0005 (8.1374)*** -0.0011 (0.4643) -0.0075 (0.4123) -0.0003 (0.1441) -0.0006 (0.0450) (11) YES 0.0311 (0.8537) -0.0213 (0.7517) -0.0021 (0.8467) 0.0018 (0.9620) -0.0461 (1.8742)* 0.0003 (2.1494)** 0.0021 (0.9100) -0.0074 (0.4175) -0.0039 (1.8839)* 0.0182 (1.2321)

129

Log (GDP per capita)

continued...

Debt / Total assets Cash / Assets

-0.0056 (0.6757) -0.0023 (0.1792)

-0.0057 (0.6829) -0.0012 (0.0948) 1,459 14.89%

-0.0087 (1.1201)

-0.0058 (0.6977) -0.0010 (0.0789)

Observations R-squared

2,804 8.15%

2,804 8.23%

2,280 10.01%

2,280 10.05%

2,804 10.24%

2,280 12.44%

2,280 12.49%

1,459 14.72%

1,736 15.33%

1,459 14.94%

Panel B: 11 day CAR (-5, +5) regressions for all stocks, sovereign upgrades, dollar returns
(1) Constant ADR dummy International debt dummy YES (2) YES -0.0015 (0.2728) 0.0063 (1.3791) ADR * Size International debt * Size Log (GDP per capita) Stock market cap / GDP Size Intangibles / Total assets Revenues / Total assets -0.0024 (1.7488)* -0.0026 (1.8166)* 0.0024 (0.7024) 0.0013 (0.5032) -0.1343 (4.9031)*** -0.0006 (7.0936)*** (3) YES -0.0296 (0.5882) -0.0125 (0.3290) (4) YES (5) YES (6) YES -0.0001 (0.0016) 0.0033 (0.0910) 0.0002 (0.0592) -0.0001 (0.0253) -0.1611 (5.4098)*** -0.0007 (7.1314)*** (7) YES -0.0125 (0.2480) -0.0112 (0.2932) 0.0011 (0.3238) 0.0010 (0.3965) -0.1581 (5.2895)*** -0.0007 (7.0891)*** -0.0019 (1.2684) -0.2361 (5.7641)*** 0.0002 (0.8759) 0.0071 (1.8513)* -0.0115 (0.3913) -0.0092 (2.6557)*** -0.0016 (0.4017) 0.0032 (1.0330) -0.2370 (5.7991)*** 0.0003 (0.9498) 0.0060 (1.5758) -0.0100 (0.3389) -0.0093 (2.6823)*** (8) YES 0.0281 (0.4743) -0.0414 (0.8972) (9) YES (10) YES 0.0318 (0.5111) -0.0321 (0.6767) -0.0018 (0.4148) 0.0024 (0.7474) -0.1346 (3.8397)*** -0.0008 (6.9547)*** 0.0001 (0.0245) -0.0015 (0.0504) -0.0026 (0.7913) (11) YES 0.0450 (0.7426) -0.0480 (1.0181) -0.0029 (0.6913) 0.0036 (1.1441) -0.2362 (5.7655)*** 0.0002 (0.8944) 0.0062 (1.5930) -0.0100 (0.3376) -0.0092 (2.6636)***

130

continued...

Table 22 continued
Inventories / Total assets Debt / Total assets Cash / Assets 0.0446 (1.8091)* 0.0296 (2.1267)** 0.0247 (1.1590) Observations R-squared 2,804 6.26% 2,804 6.33% 2,280 7.59% 2,280 7.61% 2,804 9.10% 2,280 11.02% 2,280 11.08% 1,459 11.20% 0.0459 (1.8614)* 0.0301 (2.1661)** 0.0258 (1.2067) 1,459 11.29% 1,736 12.06% 0.0030 (0.1280) 0.0083 (0.6485) 0.0455 (1.845929)* 0.0295 (2.1195)** 0.0259 (1.2141) 1,459 11.34%

The dependent variable is the cumulative abnormal return (CAR) computed using market model adjusted returns á la Brown and Warner (1985). All returns are in U.S. dollars. All figures used on the right-hand side of the regressions are converted to U.S. dollars using then prevailing exchange rates collected from Datastream. All items except GDP per capita and stock market cap / GDP are from Worldscope. GDP per capita and stock market cap / GDP are from the World Bank's Economic Indicators database. Size is Total assets from Worldscope. The following are the Worldscope codes for our variables: Intangible assets (02649), Total assets (02999), Tota debt (03255), Total revenues (07240), Cash plus short term investments (02001). ADR dummy is a dummy variable that takes a value of one when the firm has an ADR issue level 1, 2 or 3. International debt dummy is a dummy variable that takes a value of one when the firm has at least a foreign bond or an eurobond issue outstanding. We control for country fixed effects using country dummies (not reported). Absolute value of t-statistics in parentheses. We correct for heteroskedasticity using White's (1980) covariance estimator. * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.

Table 22. Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR) for all stocks following a sovereign rating upgrade 131

Table 23. Countries included in this comparison

Argentina Brazil Bulgaria Chile China Colombia Costa Rica Croatia Czech Dominican Ecuador Egypt

El Salvador Greece Hungary Indonesia Jordan Korea Lebanon Malaysia Mexico Pakistan Panama Peru

Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Russia Slovakia South Africa Thailand Turkey Venezuela Vietnam

132

Table 24. Coverage for sovereign bonds on Datastream and Warga databases.

Naic303 Total number of different bonds for 37 emerging market countries with valid ISIN data Warga files only Bonds included only in NAIC files Bonds included in Datastream and NAIC Observations with usable data from BOTH databases Price correlation Holding period return correlation HPR one month or less 33

Warga database Naic304 Naic99303

Datastream Naic99304

73

58

88

89

276

23

33

33

40

35

55

56

552 92.33% 73.66% 75.01%

221 97.24% 89.83% 93.64%

844 93.88% 74.88% 84.61%

745 94.70% 75.86% 64.21%

133

APPENDIX C

FIGURES

134

10

12

-6
-6 -4
6/1/1997 9/1/1997 12/1/1997 3/1/1998

-5
6/1/1997 9/1/1997 12/1/1997 3/1/1998 6/1/1998 9/1/1998 12/1/1998 3/1/1999 6/1/1999 9/1/1999 12/1/1999 3/1/2000

-4
-2

-3 0 1 2 3
0 2 4 6 8
6/1/1998 9/1/1998 12/1/1998 3/1/1999 6/1/1999

-2

Sovereign

9/1/1999 12/1/1999 3/1/2000

-1

Figure 1. First common component

Figure 2. Second common component

Sovereign

135
Domestic
6/1/2000 9/1/2000 12/1/2000 3/1/2001 6/1/2001 9/1/2001 12/1/2001 3/1/2002 6/1/2002

Domestic

6/1/2000 9/1/2000 12/1/2000 3/1/2001 6/1/2001 9/1/2001 12/1/2001 3/1/2002 6/1/2002

Figure 3. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican equity index

Exponential Quantiles

2 -0.15

4

6

8

-0.10

-0.05

0.0 Ordered Data

0.05

0.10

0.15

Exponential Quantiles

2 -0.15

4

6

8

-0.10

-0.05

0.0 Ordered Data

0.05

0.10

0.15

136

Figure 4. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican ADR equally weighted portfolio

Exponential Quantiles

2

4

6

8

-0.2

-0.1 Ordered Data

0.0

0.1

Exponential Quantiles

2

4

6

8

-0.1

0.0 Ordered Data

0.1

0.2

137

Figure 5. Q-Q Plots for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the S&P 500 equity index

Exponential Quantiles

2

4

6

8

-0.10

-0.05

0.0 Ordered Data

0.05

0.10

0.15

Exponential Quantiles

2

4

6

8

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05

0.0 Ordered Data

0.05

0.10

138

Figure 6. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican equity index

Mean Excess

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

-0.2

-0.1 Threshold

0.0

0.1

Mean Excess

0.05

0.10

0.15

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05 Threshold

0.0

0.05

0.10

139

Figure 7. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the Mexican ADR equally weighted portfolio.

Mean Excess

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

-0.2

-0.1 Threshold

0.0

0.1

Mean Excess

0.05

0.10

0.15

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05 Threshold

0.0

0.05

0.10

140

Figure 8. Excess mean graphs for the left tail and the right tail of the dollar return of the S&P 500 equity index

Mean Excess

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

-0.10

-0.05 Threshold

0.0

0.05

Mean Excess

0.05

0.10

0.15

-0.15

-0.10

-0.05 Threshold

0.0

0.05

141

Figure 9. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P and Mexican ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.

Figure 10. Correlation between S&P and the Chilean stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P and Chilean ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.

142

Figure 11. Correlation between S&P and the Venezuelan stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P and Venezuelan ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.

Figure 12. Correlation between S&P and the Colombian stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P and Colombian ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.

143

Figure 13. Correlation between S&P and the Brazilian stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P and Brazilian ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.

Figure 14. Correlation between S&P and the Argentinean stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P and Argentinean ADRs (dashed line). The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.

144

Figure 15. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P and Mexican ADRs (dashed line) before the 1995 Mexican crisis. The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.

Figure 16. Correlation between S&P and the Mexican stock market index (solid line) and correlation between S&P and Mexican ADRs (dashed line) after the 1995 Mexican crisis. The number of exceedances used to calculate each correlation is shown in the horizontal axis.

145

Figure 17. Downgrades (S&P) 0.01 0 -5 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.04 -0.05 Abnormal return Cumulative abnormal return -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Figure 18. Upgrades (S&P) 0.004 0.003 0.002 0.001 0 -0.001 -0.002 -0.003 -0.004 Abnormal return Cumulative abnormal return -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

146

Figure 19. Downgrades (Moody's) 0.01 0.005 0 -0.005 -0.01 -0.015 -0.02 -0.025 Abnormal return Cumulative abnormal return -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Figure 20. Upgrades (Moody's) 0.008 0.006 0.004 0.002 0 -0.002 -0.004 -0.006 -0.008 -0.01 -0.012 Abnormal return Cumulative abnormal return -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

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