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The Vale of White Horse shares its north east boundary with the city of Oxford and its western boundary with the Borough of Swindon; it is bordered by the River Thames to the north and east and has the M4 motorway a little to the south. Its main centres of population are the towns of Abingdon, Faringdon and Wantage/Grove. The proximity of the M4 and M40 motorways means that the Vale is easily accessible by road from London and Bristol. Rail links to the district itself are fairly poor; none of the three towns has a rail station. Nearby Didcot, Oxford and Swindon have good connections with the capital, the west, the Midlands and Wales.
This section contains data on the population of the district from the 2001 Census1. This data also allows us to compare the local population to that of the region, the South East, and to England and Wales as a whole. The population of the Vale at the time of the 2001 Census was 115,627; this represents an increase of just over 3% since the previous census of 1991. This population is spread over 45,759 households; on average there are 2.5 people per household, a figure roughly equivalent to that seen nationally. Adults (those aged 16 or over) account for four fifths (79.5%) of the population. The age profile of residents of the Vale of White Horse is broadly similar to that observed nationally, although there is a slightly greater proportion of 30 to 59 year olds, and a slightly lower proportion of 20 to 29 year olds. The table below shows how the population of the district differs from the regional and national population.
Table 1: Age profile
Vale of White Horse % South East % England and Wales %
Under 16 16 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 59 60 to 74 75 and over
Base: all people Source: 2001 Census, ONS
20.5 5.0 10.7 43.5 13.1 7.2
19.9 4.8 12.0 42.1 13.2 8.0
20.2 4.9 12.6 41.5 13.3 7.6
Source: 2001 Census. Crown copyright 2003. Crown copyright material is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO
ABL Cultural Consulting
5 8.9 10.7 0.2 0.9% of the population of England.4 people per hectare in England and Wales.1 1.4 The population of the Vale of White Horse is predominantly white.3 4.1 0. compared to just over a half (50.6 8.1 0.6 1.7 90.9 58.1 50.Old Gaol .0 0. Table 3: Ethnicity Vale of White Horse % England % White White Irish Mixed Asian or Asian British Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Other Asian Black or Black British Caribbean African Other Black Chinese or other ethnic group Base: all people Source: 2001 Census.3 1. reflecting the largely rural character of the district.0 10.0 0.4 0. almost three fifths (58.7 7. The table below shows the marital status of adults in the Vale compared to those in the region and in England and Wales.1 28. there is an average of 2. ONS 25.1 30.9%) of those in England and Wales. 97.9 16 ABL Cultural Consulting .0 0.5 2. compared to 90.1 0.6 2.6% of the local population falls into this ethnic group. ONS 97.1 0.8 0.4 53.2%) of adult Vale residents are married or re-married.2 0.1 0.2 8. compared to 3.6 0. Table 2: Marital status Vale of White Horse % South East % England and Wales % Single (never married) Married or re-married Separated or divorced Widowed Base: all people aged 16 and over Source: 2001 Census.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis The area is relatively sparsely populated.9 1.4 0. The proportion of married people in the Vale is higher than that seen regionally or nationally.1 1.0 people per hectare.1 1.
3 2.9%.6 3. a high proportion of the local population is in employment (69.6% nationally). ABL Cultural Consulting 17 . A high proportion of people describe themselves as being of good health (74. compared to 13. Correspondingly. compared to just a fifth (19.6%).4 1. compared to 29. compared to 68.1%.5 5.Old Gaol . regional and national populations.2%) Vale residents are qualified to degree level or higher.0 2.2 6.1 1.4% nationally.7 12.9%. compared to 3.6% of the local working age population is unemployed.0 2. Table 4: Employment status Vale of White Horse % South East % England and Wales % Employed Unemployed Long-term unemployed Student (economically active) Retired Student (economically inactive) Looking after home / family Permanently sick or disabled Other inactive Base: all people aged 16-74 Source: 2001 Census.4 2. just 1.6 4. There are a number of other indicators that demonstrate that the Vale of White Horse is a relatively affluent area: • • • A higher than average proportion of owner occupied households in the Vale (74.3 0.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis Unemployment is low in the Vale. The table below shows the employment status of the local. A high proportion of households with two or more cars or vans (44. The proportion of retired people is slightly below the national average (12.9 3.8%) in England and Wales as a whole. compared to 60.9% nationally).1 Almost three in ten (28.6 0.0 2.7% in the Vale.4 60.7 6.7 65.6% in England and Wales).6 2.5 3.7 6.5 3. ONS 69.7 13.3 1.4%. compared to 68.4% in England and Wales).6 13.4 4.
which are in turn further divided to give 61 sub-groups or types. the leading credit referencing agency and data supplier. Didcot and Wantage. Experian also provides demographic information on the population. and Newbury to the south. the total number of households is 152.627. it is not directly comparable with the Vale of White Horse district. as a larger area would have encompassed. Thame to the east.448. Faringdon. 2 Note that the population of this catchment area is considerably larger than that of the Vale of White Horse district (115. however. house price data from the land registry. 18 ABL Cultural Consulting . The total population of this area is 366. Mosaic profiling is generated from a number of sources. this classifies households by post code into one of eleven lifestyle groups.2 The map opposite shows this catchment area. does not fall within this area. and been unduly influenced by. The area within 30 minutes drive time of Abingdon includes Oxford. almost as far as Witney to the west. local levels of council tax and a number of market research surveys (including the Target Group Index. other large urban areas such as Reading and Swindon. As Experian’s catchment area is defined by drive time rather than by local authority boundaries. Kidlington.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis 3. The catchment area reaches as far as Bicester to the north. the British Crime Survey. has been used to examine the area within 30 minutes weekday off peak drive time of the Old Gaol in Abingdon.3 Lifestyle profiles Data from Experian. and Experian’s own lifestyle questionnaires). the adult population is 302. according to the 2001 Census).748. including the 2001 Census. Experian data allows us to examine the population of the local area in terms of its Mosaic profile. The catchment area was limited to 30 minutes.562.Old Gaol . and indications of the population’s propensity to take part in various cultural and leisure activities.
Old Gaol .Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis Figure 1: 30 minute catchment area map ABL Cultural Consulting 19 .
Grey Perspectives: “Independent pensioners living in their own homes who are relatively active in their lifestyles.” H.” J.3 3.” B. mature homes. I. H. affording luxuries and premium quality products.497 18.6 2. The table shows the absolute number of adults in the 30 minute area around Abingdon.” F. anything below is under-represented.578 7. the equivalent percentage based on the Great Britain population.2 11. these people are cosmopolitan in tastes and liberal in attitudes. Ties of Community: “People living in close-knit inner city and manufacturing town communities. single and mostly well-educated.123 6. Symbols of Success: “People with rewarding careers who live in sought after locations. F.5 6.5 10. Welfare Borderline: “People who are struggling to achieve rewards and are mostly reliant on the council for accommodation and benefits. anything above is over-represented. and the index. Table 4: Mosaic Lifestyle Groups 30 minute catchment area n 30 minute catchment area % Great Britain % Index A.2 17.1 7. Blue Collar Enterprise: “People who though not well-educated are practical and enterprising and may well have exercised their right to buy.8 2. an index of 100 is average. Happy Families: “Families with focus on career and home.Old Gaol . responsible workers with unsophisticated tastes.9 16. D.3 6.2 11.077 18.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis The table below shows how the population is distributed across the eleven Mosaic lifestyle groups. Municipal Dependency: “Families on lower incomes who often live in large council estates where there is little owner-occupation.” E. Urban Intelligence: “Young.” C.6 10.513 56. Suburban Comfort: “Families who are successfully established in comfortable.” I. Symbols of Success Happy Families Suburban Comfort Ties of Community Urban Intelligence Welfare Borderline Municipal Dependency Blue Collar Enterprise Twilight Subsistence Grey Perspectives Rural Isolation 57. E.7 1. J.” 20 ABL Cultural Consulting . Rural Isolation: “People living in rural areas where country life has not been influenced by urban consumption patterns.” K. C. K.7 18.” D. The index identifies groups that are under or over represented in the Abingdon area compared to the whole of Great Britain.4 5.” G. mostly younger age groups now raising children.610 17.1 5.6 16. the equivalent figure as a percentage. G.2 7.246 41.710 53.177 3.9 13. Twilight Subsistence: “Elderly people subsisting on meagre incomes in council accommodation.2 5. Children are growing up and finances are easier.7 1.673 35.544 5. B.4 178 126 111 38 249 32 20 103 70 79 46 Base: all adults 15+ Source: Experian Key: A.
” In terms of recreational activities. Interest in theatre. People living in the Vale are more likely to fall into the Symbols of Success or Happy Families groups.” Within the Urban Intelligence group. Where the Abingdon area differs most from the national population is in the presence of people from the Urban Intelligence Mosaic type. mostly younger age groups now raising children. The proximity of a major university city means that the 30 minute catchment area around Abingdon contains a great many young. combined with the wealth of cultural opportunities available in Oxford. well-qualified people. Town Gown Transition is a group where “students and academics mix with young professionals in terraces relatively close to universities. There is a greater than average proportion of people in the Happy Families Mosaic group. while the latter is comprised of “well-to-do professionals. The Urban Intelligence group is largely made up of recent graduates. but less likely to visit the cinema. This group is made up of “families with a focus on career and home. ABL Cultural Consulting 21 . these people are cosmopolitan in tastes and liberal in attitudes.” The most notable types within this group are In Military Quarters and Fledgling Nurseries.” Within this group. living in traditional family units in exclusive suburbs.7%) adults in the 30 minute catchment area fall into this group.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis The area around Abingdon is quite affluent. The former is defined as “higher income families living on the outskirts of commutable metropolitan areas” and is the most populous of all the 61 Mosaic groups in the Abingdon area. and is largely populated by people from the more upmarket Mosaic types.” The influence of Oxford can clearly be felt in these Mosaic types. this factor.1% of the adult population of Great Britain. people in this group are more likely than average to have an interest in theatre or the arts. the most common Mosaic types are Semi-Rural Seclusion and Cultural Leadership. compared to just 7. the arts and cinema is a characteristic of people in the Urban Intelligence group.Old Gaol . The most populous type in the area is Symbols of Success. makes it unlikely that people in this group will travel from Oxford to Abingdon to visit the Old Gaol. single and mostly well-educated.” The Caring Professionals group is made up of “well qualified singles and couples in caring professions renting lower quality inner terraces. the most commonly found Mosaic types are Town Gown Transition and Caring Professionals. more than one in six (17. this type is also considerably over-represented when compared to the national average. Symbols of Success is defined by Experian as “people with rewarding careers who live in sought after locations. Car ownership in this group is relatively low. Mosaic defines this group as “young. affording luxuries and premium quality products. and therefore is more clustered around Oxford than the immediate Vale of White Horse area.
At 18.” People in this group tend to live in newly built out of town estates. These are “younger owners.6.” Another group that should be considered is Suburban Comfort.” 7. mature homes. There are just over 9.3%). they are more likely to be interested in sports and computer games than in visiting theatres. it still accounts for a large proportion of the local population. The Fledgling Nurseries type is made up of “very young couples in recently developed housing working in intermediate jobs. a sub-group of the Blue Collar Enterprise group. more than twice the proportion found nationally (3. many in good quality ex-council properties.2% of the local population falls into this category. It should be noted that this group is not just made up servicemen.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis In Military Quarters comprises “servicemen and their families who live in military accommodation. Although this group is not as over-represented as Urban Intelligence or Symbols of Success. accounting for 3. This type is comprised of “upper middle income families in good quality housing. representing 4. They are over-represented by a factor of 2. accounting for just 0. many with school age children. They tend to be young couples.000 individuals of this type in the Abingdon catchment area. although they are more likely than average to be frequent cinema visitors. who take advantage of local economic opportunities.Old Gaol .0% of the total population. There are just over 12. 22 ABL Cultural Consulting .” A sizeable proportion of the population in the Abingdon catchment area falls into the White Van Culture Mosaic type. accounting for some 21. Children are growing up and finances are easier. The largest Happy Families type in terms of absolute numbers is Families Making Good. but also of their wives and children. this is the second largest group in the catchment area. there are 1. Although the reputation of the area is for middle class sophisticates. just to the north-west of Abingdon.953 people in this type in the Abingdon catchment area. often with children. Although this group is over-represented in this catchment area (the proportion in the local population is more than three times that found in the country as a whole) it does not account for a particularly large segment of the population in terms of actual numbers. and consequently often rely on home entertainment such as the internet and computer games. Suburban Comfort is defined as “Families who are successfully established in comfortable.000 people in this category in the Abingdon catchment area.840 individuals.0% of the population.5% of the local population.7% of the population.” People in this type in the Vale area are likely to be based in the Dalton Barracks. museums and libraries. the presence of more working class households should not be ignored.
2 14. Social grades A. around two fifths (41.816 63.738 17.220 26.403 44.999 £20.4 12. it should not be assumed that they make up an insignificant proportion of the population.8% in Great Britain as a whole. 21.5 3. those representing white collar workers.3 12.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis Demographic information Experian provides figures on the social grades of people in the Abingdon area.3 11.7 126 115 108 96 82 78 Base: all adults 15+ Source: Experian Although the area has a lower than average proportion of people in social grades C2.3 17.348 74.2 20. are all more common in the Abingdon area than in the country as a whole.7 28.Old Gaol .5 17.999 £35.2 20.000 to £10.7% of households in the area have an annual household income of £35.8 17.7 9.7 21. data on household income demonstrates that this is an affluent area. D and E (people in manual occupations.109 7.9 16.2 9.6 10. Indeed.000 or more Base: all households Source: Experian 11.248 23. The table below shows how household income in the Abingdon catchment area differs from that seen nationally.999 £15.643 4. the highest social grades are the most over-represented in this area.229 17.8 30.1 21.999 or less £5.999 £11.3 23.4 20. Similarly.8 85 88 90 98 103 107 122 ABL Cultural Consulting 23 .1 7.000 to £19.000 to £24. compared to 17.931 27.000 to £14. Table 6: Household income 30 minute catchment area n 30 minute catchment area % Great Britain % Index £4.436 18.1 17.000 to £24.766 94.000 or more.7 12. Table 5: Social grade 30 minute catchment area n 30 minute catchment area % Great Britain % Index Social Social Social Social Social Social grade grade grade grade grade grade A B C1 C2 D E 13.999 £25. B and C1. The table below shows how the local and national population breaks down by social grade.999 33.9 11. and those relying on state benefits).8%) of the local population fall into these categories.
766 22. There are more than 130. the Vale will have to work hard to improve the situation. These Oxford residents. This represents 22.000 adults in the catchment area who have attended a performance in a theatre in the last year. There are more than 70. Through this we establish estimates for possible attendance at each element of the proposed redeveloped Old Gaol.7 6. 24 ABL Cultural Consulting .Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis 3.5% of the local population.2 6.4 114 114 114 129 Abingdon museum attracts some 20 thousand visitors per year at present.4 19. On the whole Abingdon's historic attractions are not well marketed to tourists and with the recent closure of the TICs owing to budget cuts. This figure includes residents of Oxford as well as those of Abingdon and the surrounding rural area.780 22. an increase on the national average of nearly 3%. Table 7: Museum attendance 30 minute catchment area n 30 minute catchment area % Great Britain % Index Museums (any) Natural History Museum Science Museum Other museums in London Base: all adults 15+ Source: Experian 70. Visitor surveys reveal that one third of this total comprises of visitors from outside the area.1 4.2 3. Many of these visit by boat. museums and cinemas.1 7. Plays and pop or rock concerts are the most popular types of performance seen in theatres by residents of the catchment. which has many popular moorings for those on boating holidays. demonstrating how the appeal of the capital cannot be ignored when considering potential audiences in the Vale.4 Leisure and cultural activities Experian data allows us to look at the attendance habits of the local population in terms of visiting theatres. Were the town to develop itself as a tourism destination this proportion of out of town visitors might increase.139 22. classical concerts are also popular. At least two companies run boat trips from Oxford and Abingdon.5 7. A significant number of these people have visited museums in London. The table opposite shows how attendance patterns at various types of theatre performance varies between the local and national performances. many of whom are students.233 13. Many of these are staying with friends or relatives in the town.Old Gaol . are probably unlikely to go to Abingdon for a trip to the theatre since the city is well provided with theatre venues of a variety of types and sizes.000 people in the catchment area who have visited a museum in the last year.
594 47. Regular cinema attenders are slightly harder to come by.000 go at least once per month. of whom nearly 50. The table below shows the frequency of cinema attendance among adults in the catchment area compared to the national population. Almost two thirds (64.395 84.9 112 116 123 119 117 119 121 113 Each type of performance listed above is more popular among residents of the catchment than among the national population.9 13. and that those going less often make just one visit per year.1 5. There are almost 95.503 24. this is slightly above average for Great Britain.2 8. Experian measures cinema attendance in a slightly different way.7 8.755 108. If those who do not go to the cinema at all are disregarded.040 113. then we can estimate that residents of the catchment area on average make 3.8 26.9 38.0 12.1 7.7 6.9 106 109 109 103 93 If we suppose that those people who go to the cinema once or twice per month make an average of fifteen visits per year.9 15.607 64.4 23. the average number of 3 “Ever go” : a respondent who answers in the affirmative to the question : Do you ever go to the cinema nowadays? ABL Cultural Consulting 25 .2 61. suggesting that the local population is likely to be inclined to attend performances at a redeveloped Old Gaol. Table 9: Cinema attendance 30 minute catchment area n 30 minute catchment area % Great Britain % Index Ever go to cinema Go once or more a month Go every 2 or 3 months Go less often Never go these days Base: all adults 15+ Source: Experian 202.4 36.2 7.9 34.4 visits to the cinema per year.415 47.5 5.5 15.1 7.000 adults in the catchment area who go to the cinema at least once every three months.Old Gaol .386 26. that those going every two or three months make an average of five visits per year.610 88.5%) of the adult population of the Abingdon catchment area report that they ever go to the cinema3.539 27.1 13.2 14.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis Table 8: Theatre attendance 30 minute catchment area n 30 minute catchment area % Great Britain % Index Theatre Plays Opera Ballet Contemporary dance Classical concerts Jazz concerts Popular / rock concerts Base: all adults 15+ Source: Experian 134.662 42.590 18.8 28.4 24. however.7 33.799 46.5 38.
with 14.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis visits per year is 5. ease of access. The survey covered the following topics: • • • Reason for visit to the library Whether visitors were able to find what they were looking for Satisfaction with various aspects of the library (condition of the building.132 completed questionnaires from visitors to the 50 libraries. The Abingdon library is generally rated a little lower than the Oxfordshire average. a city rich in such attractions. Satisfaction levels with libraries across the county are generally very high. It should be noted. staff helpfulness and staff knowledge and expertise are the factors that tend to be most highly rated. Residents of the local area will also travel to London for cultural activities. The Council received a total of 12.5 Library users Oxfordshire County Council Public Library Users Survey Combined Weighted Authority & Service Point Report 2003 This report presents the findings from a survey of visitors to all the public libraries in Oxfordshire. however. that negative ratings (‘poor’ or ‘very poor’) are comparatively low in number. There is room for improvement across the county’s libraries in the areas of opening hours and provision of seating and tables. 3.6%) responded to the survey. etc) The coverage of the survey allows us to compare the results for libraries in the Vale (Abingdon. of which Abingdon has the second highest number of visitors (7. On average. theatres and cinemas among residents of the catchment area are high. Figures for attendance at museums.Old Gaol .739). the Central Library has the highest number of weekly visits.2 (this is the average number of visits made by those who go to the cinema at all). Wantage receives the highest ratings. 26 ABL Cultural Consulting . results have been weighted to reflect the total number of weekly visits in all these libraries. but not significantly. Of the three Vale libraries covered in the survey. A total of 50 libraries were covered. The chart opposite shows how visitors to Abingdon library rated these various factors. Wantage and Faringdon) with those in Oxfordshire as a whole. helpfulness of staff. but it should be reiterated that this catchment area includes Oxford.465 visits weekly. almost nine in ten visitors (88.
as the chart below demonstrates. Chart 2: Rating of Oxfordshire library services Overall Staff helpfulness Staff knowledge and expertise Information and enquiry services Time spent waiting for service Ease of access inside the library Condition of the library inside Ease of access entering the building Children's services Computers Condition of the library outside Signs and guiding Layout and arrangement Books and other materials Provision of seating and tables Hours of opening 0% Very good Good 39% 65% 52% 42% 43% 38% 39% 39% 36% 34% 29% 27% 25% 25% 26% 23% 20% Adequate 52% 32% 43% 48% 46% 50% 48% 45% 47% 44% 49% 48% 49% 49% 45% 45% 40% Poor 60% Very poor 8% 3% 6% 9% 11% 12% 12% 14% 16% 19% 21% 23% 23% 24% 26% 27% 80% 100% ABL Cultural Consulting 27 .Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis Chart 1: Rating of Abingdon library services Overall Staff helpfulness Staff knowledge and expertise Information and enquiry services Time spent waiting for service Children's services Condition of the library inside Ease of access entering the building Ease of access inside the library Computers Condition of the library outside Books and other materials Signs and guiding Layout and arrangement Hours of opening Provision of seating and tables 0% Very good Good 34% 58% 44% 37% 35% 34% 27% 28% 25% 30% 17% 21% 18% 17% 17% 15% 20% Adequate 56% 52% 53% 50% 49% 43% 40% Poor 56% 39% 50% 52% 51% 49% 54% 51% 52% 45% 10% 3% 6% 11% 13% 18% 19% 19% 23% 22% 26% 26% 27% 32% 28% 37% 60% Very poor 80% 100% The concerns of Abingdon library users are not markedly different to those of users in the county as a whole.Old Gaol .
3 0.1 10.3 Base: all library users Source: Oxford County Council Public Library Users Survey There is a slightly higher proportion of female visitors at Abingdon library than is seen in the other local libraries or in the county as a whole.0 62.3 8.0 3.0 65.1 66.3 16.0 11.0 23. Faringdon. The table below shows how the libraries’ users are distributed by age. there is a high proportion of retired people in the Abingdon library visitor base (42. Wantage and Oxfordshire as a whole.1 1.7 17.7 2.6% in Oxfordshire generally.8 14.7 15.5 2. compared to 33.8 6.1 1.4 13.9 35.9% across all of Oxfordshire’s public libraries).6 21.4 10.9 17. with almost three fifths (57.4 19. This survey also allows us to compare the demographic characteristics of library users in Abingdon.3 15.1 8.3 0.4 12.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis The Abingdon library has a slightly higher proportion of frequent visitors than those in the other towns in the area.2%) of those surveyed coming to the library at least once a week. Abingdon library receives a slightly higher proportion of visitors aged 55 or above than the other local libraries.0 38. there is a lower proportion of students visiting Abingdon library than seen elsewhere in the county.5 18. Table 11: Sex of library users Oxfordshire % Abingdon % Faringdon % Wantage % Male Female 38.1 15. Owing to its rural location.7 3. 28 ABL Cultural Consulting .2 14.6 2.0 33.7 27.Old Gaol .3%. compared to 11.6 20.8 12. just 4.0 16.1 1. Table 10: Age of library users Oxfordshire % Abingdon % Faringdon % Wantage % 14 15 20 25 35 45 55 65 75 or to to to to to to to or under 19 24 34 44 54 64 74 over 0.3 14.4 61.6 Base: all library users Source: Oxford County Council Public Library Users Survey In accordance with the age profile described above.0%.
2 1.1 42.2 2.7 4.7 17.0 2.4 3.6 1.1 9.9 17.7 6.9 33.9 3.5 7.4 3.5 8.1 1.1 11.4 2.8 2.Old Gaol .0 19.6 2.5 Base: all library users Source: Oxford County Council Public Library Users Survey ABL Cultural Consulting 29 .4 2.4 18.2 1.3 24.0 1.2 2.0 11.2 33.3 19.5 42.5 6.4 15.3 2. Table 12: Employment status of library users Oxfordshire % Abingdon % Faringdon % Wantage % Full time employment Part time employment Self employed Unemployed Retired Part time student Full time student Looking after the home / family Permanently sick / disabled Other 24.3 21.0 2.9 15.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis The table below shows the employment status of library visitors in the Vale area and in Oxfordshire as a whole.9 2.
These calculations give an estimated potential audience for the museum element of the Old Gaol of 38.000 Total expected audience: 38. while visits from tourists will lead to an increase of 50% (the museum management estimates that one third of its visitors are tourists).6 Market model We have used the information from Experian and other sources to estimate the potential audience for each element of the proposed redeveloped Old Gaol.indicated that the average museum attender visits a museum 3. participation and attitudes in 2001 suggests that those who go to plays or drama events typically attend approximately 2. not all of these will be in the Abingdon area.2 Theatre The 30 minute catchment area is home to around 135. 27% going twice.400.1 Museum Data from Experian suggests that there are just over 70.7 visits per year5. as there is significant competition from London.4 museum visits per year4.000 adult museum visitors in the 30 minute catchment area around Abingdon. To account for visits from children. Oxford and other regional museums. 5 Arts Council England’s Arts in England: attendance. Sept 2004 .000 adult visits. If we assume that each of these makes an average of 3. equivalent to around 24.400 3.4 times per year. it will attract more than 36. See below for the detail of these calculations. this gives a total of over 240.4 Total number of visits per year: 240. 24% going 3-5 times.652 Anticipated market share of Old Gaol: 10% Number of adult visits to Old Gaol: 24.Old Gaol . giving a total of more than 360. We have estimated that visits from children will increase this total by a further 10%. 10% needs to be added.000 museum visits by local people per year.6. and to account for 4 Visitors to Museums and Galleries in the UK.000 Number of visits by children (+10%): 2. 30 ABL Cultural Consulting .400 Number of visits by tourists (+50%): 12. Our competition analysis leads us to estimate that the Old Gaol could capture 10% of the museum market in the local area.6. Adult museum visitors in catchment: 70.examines the UK public’s museum and gallery visiting habits in addition to the attitudes of schoolchildren in England and Wales towards museums and galleries . 3.000 visits from adults in a year. If the theatre at the Old Gaol achieves a 10% market share.7 such events per year (based on 39% going once.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis 3.000 adults who have attended a performance in a theatre in the last year.780 Average number of visits per year: 3. Clearly.000 visits annually. and 2% going 11 or more times). We estimate that these theatre visitors will on average make 2. 7% going 6-10 times. Research Study conducted for Resource by MORI.
Adult cinema visitors in catchment: 202.2 Total number of visits per year: 1.901 Number of visits by tourists (+1%): 527 Total expected audience: 61. which equates to 388. These calculations give an estimated potential audience for the cinema element of the Old Gaol of approximately 60.635 Total expected audience: 43.489 Anticipated market share of Old Gaol: 5% Number of adult visitors to Old Gaol: 52.447 Anticipated market share of Old Gaol: 10% Number of adult visitors to Old Gaol: 36. and visits from tourists would an extra 1%.465 visits per week.000.000 adult cinema visitors in the 30 minute catchment area around Abingdon.500.Feasibility study Chapter 3: Catchment analysis visits from tourists the same proportion needs to be added again (we do not expect the theatre to attract as many children and tourists as the museum).2 visits per year. as well as from the new Ozone multi screen complex on the outskirts of the city.180 per year. There is no reason to suppose that relocation of the library to the Old Gaol will significantly affect these visitor numbers. This amounts to more than a million cinema visits per year from adults in the Abingdon area.635 Number of visits by tourists (+10%): 3.Old Gaol .102 3.6.3 Cinema Data from Experian suggests that there are more than 200.345 Number of visits by children (+10%): 3.594 Average number of visits per year: 5. See below for the detail of these calculations. making an average of 5.4 Library The Oxfordshire County Council Public Library Users Survey of 2003 reports that Abingdon’s existing library attracts 7. See below for the detail of these calculations.7 Total number of visits per year: 363.053.610 Average number of visits per year: 2. ABL Cultural Consulting 31 . This would lead to more than 50. Adult theatre visitors in catchment: 134. so we do not expect its market share to be more than 5%. Visits from children would boost this figure by 15%. These calculations give an estimated potential audience for the theatre element of the Old Gaol of approximately 43.615 3. Film at the Old Gaol would face competition from the cinemas in Oxford.6.674 Number of visits by children: (+15%): 7.000 visits from adult residents per year.