You are on page 1of 8

AÑO P (mm) Precipitaciones Maximas Mensual Estacion Dos de Mayo: Goy

2003 179.8 244.31


2004 129.1 193.13
2005 153.3 179.76
2006 146.3 176.49
2007 193.1 167.8
2008 129.4 159.96
2009 176.5 153.33
2010 160.0 146.3
2011 167.8 129.42
2012 244.3 129.11
al Estacion Dos de Mayo: Goyllarcancha
Cuadro 4.7
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Log Normal 2 Parametros: Goyllarcacnha
P (X) ln P P no exc P exc Tr (años)
244.3 5.50 97.9% 2.1% 48.8
193.1 5.26 79.3% 20.7% 4.8
179.8 5.19 67.1% 32.9% 3.0
176.5 5.17 63.6% 36.4% 2.7
167.8 5.12 53.3% 46.7% 2.1
160.0 5.07 43.4% 56.6% 1.8
153.3 5.03 35.0% 65.0% 1.5
146.3 4.99 26.4% 73.6% 1.4
129.4 4.86 10.2% 89.8% 1.1
129.1 4.86 10.0% 90.0% 1.1

LOG NORMAL

Ejemplo de cálculo

Tr Pexc P no exc P (mm) ln P (mm)


2 0.5 0.5 165.1 5.11 165.1
5 0.2 0.8 194.0 5.27 194.0
10 0.1 0.9 211.1 5.35 211.1
25 0.04 0.96 231.0 5.44 231.0
50 0.02 0.98 244.8 5.50 244.8
100 0.01 0.99 257.9 5.55 257.9
media 168.0 5.11 200 0.005 0.995 270.6 5.60 270.6
desv. Est 34.0 0.19
coef asimet 1.18 0.66
Cuadro 4.8
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Log Normal 3 Parametros: Goyllarcancha
P (X) ln (P-a) P exc Tr
244.3 4.95 4.4% 22.9
193.1 4.50 19.7% 5.1
179.8 4.34 29.2% 3.4
176.5 4.30 32.1% 3.1
167.8 4.18 41.2% 2.4
160.0 4.05 50.8% 2.0
153.3 3.92 60.1% 1.7
146.3 3.77 70.6% 1.4
129.4 3.29 93.0% 1.1
129.1 3.27 93.3% 1.1

LOG NORMAL 3

Ejemplo de cálculo

Tr P (mm)
2 160.59
5 192.63
10 215.91
25 247.41
50 272.29
100 298.29
media 168.0 4.06 200 325.57
desv. Est 34.0 0.52
coef asim 1.18 -0.12193
a 102.683

mediana 163.9

168.0
34.0
1.18

163.9
Cuadro 4.9
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Gumbel: Goyllarcancha
VALORES EXTREMOS I - GUMBEL n= 10
yn medio = 0.4952
P (X) Y=(x-u)/a P exc Tr Sn = 0.9496
244.3 2.63 7.0% 14.3 parámetros
193.1 1.20 26.1% 3.8 a = Sx / Sn = 35.83
179.8 0.82 35.5% 2.8 u = x-a*yn= 150.21
176.5 0.73 38.1% 2.6
167.8 0.49 45.8% 2.2 P(x<=X) = e ^ -e ^ -y
160.0 0.27 53.3% 1.9 P(x>=X) = 1- e ^ -e ^ -y
153.3 0.09 60.0% 1.7 P(x>=X) = 1 / Tr
146.3 -0.11 67.2% 1.5 Q = -ln(-ln(1-1/Tr))*a+u
129.4 -0.58 83.2% 1.2
129.1 -0.59 83.5% 1.2 Ejemplo de cálculo

Tr P (mm)
2 163.34
5 203.95
10 230.84
25 264.81
50 290.02
100 315.03
200 339.96

x medio 168.0 0.4952


Sx 34.0 0.9496
Cuadro 4.10
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Log Pearson III: Goyllarcancha
Q (X) log Q
244.3 2.39 PEARSON III
193.1 2.29
179.8 2.25 Q=mQ + K * sQ
176.5 2.25 1.0101 2 5 10 25 50 100 200
167.8 2.22 Q = 684.7 + 888.6 * K Percent Chance (>=) = 1-F
160.0 2.20 99 50 20 10 4 2 1 0.5
153.3 2.19 Ejemplo de cálculo
146.3 2.17 K (de tablas) 1.2 -1.449 -0.195 0.732 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149 3.661
129.4 2.11 Tr g= 1.1 g=1.2 g=1.177 P (mm) 1.1 -1.518 -0.18 0.745 1.341 2.066 2.585 3.087 3.575
129.1 2.11 2 -0.180 -0.195 -0.207 160.93
5 0.745 0.732 0.722 192.52
10 1.341 1.340 1.339 213.52
25 2.066 2.087 2.103 239.51
50 2.585 2.626 2.658 258.38
100 3.087 3.149 3.197 276.72
200 3.575 3.661 3.727 294.77

LOG PEARSON III

log Q=mlog Q + K * slogQ

log Q=2.426 + 0.686 *K

Ejemplo de cálculo
K (de tablas) 0.7 -1.806 -0.116 0.79 1.333 1.967 2.407 2.824 3.223
Tr g=0.6 g=0.7 g=0.658 log P P (mm) 0.6 -1.88 -0.099 0.8 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 3.132
2 -0.099 -0.116 -0.109 2.21 161.70
5 0.800 0.790 0.794 2.28 192.27
10 1.328 1.328 1.328 2.33 213.00
25 1.939 1.939 1.939 2.38 239.48
50 2.359 2.359 2.359 2.41 259.56
100 2.755 2.755 2.755 2.45 280.04
200 3.132 3.132 3.132 2.48 301.04

media 168.0 2.218


desv. Est 34.0 0.083
coef asimet 1.177 0.658
Cuadro 4.11
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Gamma 2 Parametros: Goyllarcancha
Q (X) P exc Tr
244.3 2.1% 48.18
193.1 22.0% 4.55
179.8 34.2% 2.92
176.5 37.7% 2.65
167.8 47.5% 2.10
160.0 56.8% 1.76
153.3 64.6% 1.55
146.3 72.5% 1.38
129.4 87.8% 1.14
129.1 88.0% 1.14

media 168.0
varianza 1157.6
desv. Est 34.0 Tr P exc = 1/T P no exc P (mm)
b 6.89 2 50% 50% 165.66
a 24.4 5 20% 80% 195.72
10 10% 90% 212.77
Parámetros: 25 4% 96% 231.99
50 2% 98% 244.98
Forma: a=m/b>0, 100 1.0% 99.0% 257.06
Escala: bs2/m>0 200 0.5% 99.5% 268.45
CUADRO Nº 4.12: PRECIPITACIONES TOTAL MENSUAL DIVERSOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO: GOYLLARCANCHA
Tr P exc = 1/T Gumbel Log N 2 Log N 3 Gama Pearson III Log P III
2 50% 163.34 165.11 160.59 165.66 160.93 161.70
5 20% 203.95 194.03 192.63 195.72 192.52 192.27
10 10% 230.84 211.11 215.91 212.77 213.52 213.00
25 4% 264.81 230.98 247.41 231.99 239.51 239.48
50 2% 290.02 244.80 272.29 244.98 258.38 259.56
100 1% 315.03 257.94 298.29 257.06 276.72 280.04
200 0.5% 339.96 270.58 325.57 268.45 294.77 301.04
Elaboración Propia
GRAFICO Nº 4.2

400.00
PRECIPITACION (mm)

Log N 2

Log N 3
350.00
Log P III

Gama

300.00
Gumbel

Pearson III

250.00

200.00

150.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 PERIODO
90 DE
100RETORNO
110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200

You might also like