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LOG NORMAL
Ejemplo de cálculo
LOG NORMAL 3
Ejemplo de cálculo
Tr P (mm)
2 160.59
5 192.63
10 215.91
25 247.41
50 272.29
100 298.29
media 168.0 4.06 200 325.57
desv. Est 34.0 0.52
coef asim 1.18 -0.12193
a 102.683
mediana 163.9
168.0
34.0
1.18
163.9
Cuadro 4.9
Análisis de Probabilidad Vs Periodo de Retorno Gumbel: Goyllarcancha
VALORES EXTREMOS I - GUMBEL n= 10
yn medio = 0.4952
P (X) Y=(x-u)/a P exc Tr Sn = 0.9496
244.3 2.63 7.0% 14.3 parámetros
193.1 1.20 26.1% 3.8 a = Sx / Sn = 35.83
179.8 0.82 35.5% 2.8 u = x-a*yn= 150.21
176.5 0.73 38.1% 2.6
167.8 0.49 45.8% 2.2 P(x<=X) = e ^ -e ^ -y
160.0 0.27 53.3% 1.9 P(x>=X) = 1- e ^ -e ^ -y
153.3 0.09 60.0% 1.7 P(x>=X) = 1 / Tr
146.3 -0.11 67.2% 1.5 Q = -ln(-ln(1-1/Tr))*a+u
129.4 -0.58 83.2% 1.2
129.1 -0.59 83.5% 1.2 Ejemplo de cálculo
Tr P (mm)
2 163.34
5 203.95
10 230.84
25 264.81
50 290.02
100 315.03
200 339.96
Ejemplo de cálculo
K (de tablas) 0.7 -1.806 -0.116 0.79 1.333 1.967 2.407 2.824 3.223
Tr g=0.6 g=0.7 g=0.658 log P P (mm) 0.6 -1.88 -0.099 0.8 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 3.132
2 -0.099 -0.116 -0.109 2.21 161.70
5 0.800 0.790 0.794 2.28 192.27
10 1.328 1.328 1.328 2.33 213.00
25 1.939 1.939 1.939 2.38 239.48
50 2.359 2.359 2.359 2.41 259.56
100 2.755 2.755 2.755 2.45 280.04
200 3.132 3.132 3.132 2.48 301.04
media 168.0
varianza 1157.6
desv. Est 34.0 Tr P exc = 1/T P no exc P (mm)
b 6.89 2 50% 50% 165.66
a 24.4 5 20% 80% 195.72
10 10% 90% 212.77
Parámetros: 25 4% 96% 231.99
50 2% 98% 244.98
Forma: a=m/b>0, 100 1.0% 99.0% 257.06
Escala: bs2/m>0 200 0.5% 99.5% 268.45
CUADRO Nº 4.12: PRECIPITACIONES TOTAL MENSUAL DIVERSOS PERIODOS DE RETORNO: GOYLLARCANCHA
Tr P exc = 1/T Gumbel Log N 2 Log N 3 Gama Pearson III Log P III
2 50% 163.34 165.11 160.59 165.66 160.93 161.70
5 20% 203.95 194.03 192.63 195.72 192.52 192.27
10 10% 230.84 211.11 215.91 212.77 213.52 213.00
25 4% 264.81 230.98 247.41 231.99 239.51 239.48
50 2% 290.02 244.80 272.29 244.98 258.38 259.56
100 1% 315.03 257.94 298.29 257.06 276.72 280.04
200 0.5% 339.96 270.58 325.57 268.45 294.77 301.04
Elaboración Propia
GRAFICO Nº 4.2
400.00
PRECIPITACION (mm)
Log N 2
Log N 3
350.00
Log P III
Gama
300.00
Gumbel
Pearson III
250.00
200.00
150.00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 PERIODO
90 DE
100RETORNO
110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200