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Reliability

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Reliability
• Generally defined as the ability of a
product to perform as expected over
time
• Formally defined as the probability that
a product, piece of equipment, or
system performs its intended function
for a stated period of time under
specified operating conditions
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Maintainability
• The probability that a system or product
can be retained in, or one that has
failed can be restored to, operating
condition in a specified amount of time.

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Types of Failures
• Functional failure – failure that occurs
at the start of product life due to
manufacturing or material detects
• Reliability failure – failure after some
period of use

These relate to the “bathtub curve”.


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Types of Reliability
• Inherent reliability – predicted by
product design
• Achieved reliability – observed during
use; based on observed failure data

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How do you measure Reliability?

• Failure rate (λ) – number of failures


per unit time
• Alternative measures
– Mean time to failure
– Mean time between failures (MTBF)

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Failure Rate Curve

“Infant
mortality
period”

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Cumulative Failure Rate


Curve

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Average Failure Rate = 0.02

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Typical Forms of Failure


† Early failure
due to design faults,
poor quality components,
manufacturing faults,
Failure Rate

installation errors,
operator & maintenance errors

† Useful life
Early Wear-out has a low, constant failure rate
Failure Useful Failure
Life
† Wear-out failure
Time parts approach the end of life

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Measuring Reliability

† Reliability R(t):
The probability of operating to an
agreed level of performance
† Unreliability F(t):
The probability of failing to operate
to an agreed level of performance

R(t ) + F (t ) = 1

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Reliability Function for Service Life

• Probability density function of failure time


is exponential: f(t) = λe-λt for t > 0
• Probability of failure from (0, T)
F(t) = 1 – e-λT
• Failure rate = λ
• Reliability function
R(T) = 1 – F(T) = e-λT
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In general, Failure Times fit
Weibull Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Weibull distribution is a
continuous probability distribution with the probability density function

for and f(x; k, λ) = 0 for x < 0, where k > 0 is the shape


parameter and λ > 0 is the scale parameter of the distribution.
The Weibull distribution is often used in the field of life data analysis due
to its flexibility—it can mimic the behavior of other statistical distributions
such as the normal and the exponential. If the failure rate decreases over
time, then k < 1. If the failure rate is constant over time, then k = 1. If the
failure rate increases over time, then k > 1.

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The Weibull Distribution
expressions

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Life Testing Data

r(t) =
Observed Reliability
No. of Cumulative No. f(t)= n(t)/
R(t)=
Failure of n(t)/ avg S(t)/20
Time t s n(t) Failures Surviving S(t) 2000 S 00 F(t) = 1 - R(t)

0 0 2000 1.000 0.000


650 0.325 0.388
1 650 1350 0.675 0.325
350 0.175 0.298
2 1000 1000 0.500 0.500
210 0.105 0.235
3 1210 790 0.395 0.605
166 0.083 0.235
4 1376 624 0.312 0.688
131 0.066 0.235
5 1507 493 0.247 0.754
103 0.052 0.233
6 1610 390 0.195 0.805
82 0.041 0.235
7 1692 308 0.154 0.846
65 0.033 0.236
8 1757 243 0.122 0.879
120 0.060 0.656
9 1877 123 0.062 0.939
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0.062 2.000 16
10 2000 0 0.000 1.000

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r(t) and R(t) Calculations displayed

Failure Rate vs. Time


2.500

2.000

1.500 r(t) Faiure Rate


1.000 Reliability R(t)

0.500

0.000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Time

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Reliability of Non-Repairable Items


T1 T2 T3
Td1 Td2 Td3

‰ Mean Time To Fail (MTTF)


ratio of total up time to number
of failures.

‰ Mean Failure Rate (λ)


inverse to MTTF.

‰ Mean Down Time (MDT)


ratio of total down time to
number of failures.
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Reliability of Repairable Items
Tup1 Tup2 Tup3
Td1 Td2 Td3
T

‰ Total Up Time (Tup)


total time minus total down time

‰ Mean Time Between Failures


(MTBF)
ratio of total up time to number
of failures.

‰ Mean Failure Rate (λ)


inverse to MTBF.
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Availability
• Operational availability
MTBF MTBM = mean time between
AO =
MTBM + MDT maintenance
MDT = mean down time
• Inherent availability
MTBF = mean time between
MTBF failures
A=
MTBF + MTTR MTTR = mean time to repair

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Design for Reliability
† Element selection
elements with well-established failure rate data
† Environment
elements can withstand normal working environment
† Minimum complexity
fewer elements (series systems)
† Redundancy
several identical elements in parallel
† Diversity
a give function is carried out by two parallel systems

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Series Systems

1 2 n

RS = R1 R2 ... Rn

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Reliability of Series System

Reliability of a series
I O system is the product of
R1 R2 Rn individual element
reliabilities.

Rsystem = R1 ⋅ R2 ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ Rn System reliability is


lower than the lowest
= e −λ1t ⋅ e −λ2t ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ e −λnt element reliability

= e −( λ1 + λ2 +⋅⋅⋅+ λn ) t
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Parallel Systems

RS = 1 - (1 - R1) (1 - R2)... (1 - Rn)


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Reliability of Parallel System

R1 Reliability of a parallel
system is determined by
I R2 O
the product of individual

Rn
element unreliabilities.

System reliability is
Rsystem = 1 − F1 ⋅ F2 ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ Fn
greater than the
= 1 − (1 − e−λ1t ) ⋅ (1 − e−λ2t ) ⋅ ⋅ ⋅ (1 − e−λnt )
greatest element
reliability

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Series-Parallel Systems
C
RA RB RD
RC
A B D
C
RC
• Convert to equivalent series system
RA RB RD
A B C’ D
RC’ = 1 – (1-
(1-RC)(1-
)(1-RC)
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Reliability Management
• Define customer performance requirements
• Determine important economic factors and
relationship with reliability requirements
• Define the environment and conditions of
product use
• Select components, designs, and vendors
that meet reliability and cost criteria
• Determine reliability requirements for
machines and equipment
• Analyze field reliability for improvement
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Configuration Management
1. Establish approved baseline
configurations (designs)
2. Maintain control over all changes in the
baseline programs (change control)
3. Provide traceability of baselines and
changes (configuration accounting)

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Design Issues
• Access of parts for repair
• Modular construction and
standardization
• Diagnostic repair procedures and
expert systems

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Maintainability

• Maintainability is the totality of design


factors that allows maintenance to be
accomplished easily
• Preventive maintenance reduces the
risk of failure
• Corrective maintenance is the
response to failures
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Reliability Engineering
• Standardization
• Redundancy
• Physics of failure
• Reliability testing
• Burn-in
• Failure mode and effects analysis
(FMEA)
• Fault tree analysis (FTA)
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FTA

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http://www.weibull.com/basics/fault-tree/index.htm 32

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Fault Tree Analysis (FTA)
Bulb
Fails
Example:

No Glass Filament Vacuum


electricity Broken Broken Leak

Power Plant Power Line Connector


Impurities Vibrations
Fails Fails Corroded

Wind Breaks Tree Breaks


Line Line
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Bicycle fails when I rush to class


Draw the FTA:

Hint: Draw an FTA diagram


for the total system first.

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Faults/Pathways Magnified N-fold for a
Simple Manufacturing Process!

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FMEA

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http://www.npd-solutions.com/fmea.html

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High-Level Combinations of
Severity and Probability
Increasing Probability of

High Risk
Occurrence

Medium
Risk

Low
Risk

Increasing Severity of Harm/Consequence


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FMEA – Why?

• Why FMEA’s?
FM • Definition, Purpose,
EA
Types, Benefits
• Team Approach
Introduction

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FMEA – Definition

FMEA is a Structured group of activities


which...

• Identify potential failure modes


• Prioritize actions
• Document the process.

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FMEA – Purpose
Failures

FMEA

Crisis Time
(Production start)

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FMEA – Purpose

FMEA’s are intended to ...

• Rate severity of failure modes


• Identify actions to reduce occurence
• Test adequacy of controls

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Potential failure Modes

Failure Mode Type Example


No function Not operational
Partial function Not all of function operating

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Severity (Weightfactor)

What is the severity of


each effect identified?

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Rating criteria for Severity


(Weightfactor)
Effect Criteria: Severity of effect Class
Non-conforming
Safety failure
with safety
S

Unacceptable Correction is nescessary


risk A
Correction is recommended
Relative big
risk
B

risico Correctie isisnuttig


Correction usefull
Minimum risk C
C

None AcceptedTapan
failure
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Potential Cause of Failure

It is a weakness in the design with a failure mode


as effect.
(see next slide)

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Manufacturing misbuilds

Due to design Deficiencies

+ +
- -

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Manufacturing misbuilds

Robust Design done after FMEA

+ +
- -

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Searching for Causes of failure

Use Fishbone Diagram:


Text in wrong location

“Text
unreadable”

Ink of poor quality


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Cause of failure – “Why”-ladder

“Text unreadable”

Ink doesn’t stick


Surface roughness
level 1
not ok.
WHY?
level 2
Design requirement
WHY?
level 3
Tapan Bagchi TQM IEM Reliability WHY? 49

Sentencing Technique: Is it an
effect or a cause?

Could result in Effect

Failure
Mode Due to
Cause

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Sentencing Technique -
Example

Dissatisfied
Could result in customer
“Text
Unreadable”
Due to Surface
roughness
(designreq.)

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Product-FMEA – Occurrence

What is the probability that


the failure will occur?

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Rating criteria
of occurrence

Probability of failure Possible Failure Rates Ranking

Very high ≥ 1 of 3 5
> 1 of 20 4

Moderate > 1 of 400 3

> 1 of 15000 2

Low < 1 of 15000 1

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Product-FMEA – Actions/Solutions

What are the possible actions to:


- eliminate the failure
- reduce effect
- reduce occurrence

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Do the Bicycle exercise again—by
FMEA

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