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INDUSTRY RESEARCH & ANALYSIS - IRA
Credit Management Group
NBP Industry Newsletter
Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments
SBP projects 2-3% growth (Page No. 23) IMF: Inflation 13.5%, GDP < 2.75% (Page No. 24) Fiscal deficit reaches 6.3pc in FY10 (Page No. 24) CA deficit widens by 48% (Page No. 24) Trade gap widens (Page No. 24) Bumper wheat crop likely (Page No. 15) Profitability remains up in 2010 (Page No. 09) Two nuclear reactors for Pakistan (Page No. 06) Agreement inked - TAPI gas pipeline (Page No. 06) Pakistan can produce of 7,000 MWs (Page No. 06) Pakistan forced to import over 3 M bales of cotton (Page No. 01) Kick - starting agricultural activity (Page No. 15) Agriculture may need 2 years for recovery (Page No. 14) 310,000 small businesses affected by Floods (Page No. 14) Circular debt update (Page No. 06)
OCT / NOV 2010 ISSUE
Major Developments Textiles (Ginning, Spinning, 1 1 4 6 8 9 11 12 12 14 19 20 22 23 32 33
33 35 39 40 44 48 52
Pakistan forced to import over 3 M bales of cotton
Weaving, Knits, Woven Apparel)
Oil (Marketing, Refining, Sourcing) Power / Energy (Generation, Distribution) Sugar Cement / Construction / Steel Automotive Telecommunication Other Industries Agriculture Micro Business & SME Financial Services Regulatory Macro Environment Table: Risk-Opportunity Trends Accelerating Global Risks - Special Excerpts
Global Deflation Sovereign & US Debt Crises US Dollar Crises - An Alternative Reserve Currency Strategic Divergence US vs China / Russia & Others Iran A new Mid-East war in the making The AF-Pak Theater The End Game Economic Implications of US Congressional Elections (Nov 2010) Downgraded: ratings of largest banks (Page No. 20) NPLs estimate - SBP (Page No. 20)
Pakistan will be forced to import over 3 M bales of raw cotton to meet the demands of local textile industry as cotton production will remain around 11.5 M bales against set target of 14 M bales in crop season 2010-11. Officials at the Ministry of Food and Agriculture told that during the current crop season Pakistan expected to achieve the set target due to favourable conditions, but devastating floods have swept away cotton crop on 600,000 hectares. Before the recent floods Pakistan was expecting a bumper crop of 14 M bales compared to 12.8 M bales produced last year. Officials said that Pakistan's textile industry annually requires around 14 M bales of cotton, officials added. Officials said cotton crop had been sown on 3.4 M hectares, out of which 0.6 M hectares had been destroyed and the country lost about 2.5 M bales. Officials warned that the country would face serious shortage of cotton in coming days as more than 20% of the cotton crop had been destroyed by the floods.
(Business Recorder October 13, 2010) Over 2 M cotton bales destroyed
While expressing his views in connection with the damage to the
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cotton crop as a result of floods, Chairman APTMA Sindh-Balochistan Region said that before the floods Pakistan was expecting a bumper crop of 14 M bales compared to 12.8 M bales produced last year. According to reasonable estimates, the floods have destroyed approximately 2.00 to 2.50 M bales leaving a short fall of about 1.00 M bales in comparison to last year; therefore, the import requirement this year will be additional 1 M bales and total import requirement would be 4 M bales, which will now be procured from international market at world prices. Under the scenario, it can not be expected that the spinning mills will import cotton at international prices in the absence of continuity and assurety of non interfering policy by the Ministry of Textile Industry, as nobody can afford to import raw material at world prices and be denied the rights to sell their product at the international price of cotton yarn in the wake of export duties and quotas. The clear proof of this can be drawn from a comparison of cotton import figures between 2008-09 and 2009-10 when the import figures were 490,000 Metric Tons (2.8 M bales) versus 337,000 Metric Tons (1.98 M bales), respectively. Had curbs on yarn export not been placed during the last year Pakistan would have imported 150,000 MT more of raw cotton at prices, which would have been much cheaper than they are today and consequently availability in the local market would have been much better.
Cotton crisis looming
destroyed by floods in the four provinces and Azad Kashmir, which might compel the country to import many agricultural products including cotton. The total agriculture sector losses are estimated to be about Rs 249 B. Due to flood damage to Pakistan's cotton crop for the 2010-11 season, the officials estimate that the country may import 3.5 to 4 M bales. Major distortion took place in major cottongrowing areas of the central Punjab and southern Sindh. According to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report, the highest losses were recorded in Punjab where about 661,637 hectares of land with standing crops destroyed. In Sindh, crops on about 357,372 hectares and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) about 191,020 hectares were damaged.
(Daily Times September 14, 2010) Cotton output to drop by 18.5%
ginneries as on September 1 stood at 9,95,191 bales, showing a decrease of 22.95% over the corresponding period of the last year when ginneries received 12,91,550 bales. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association's fortnightly report released said that Punjab - the major cotton producing province contributed 4,88,548 bales to take the total to 9,95,191 bales. Sindh's shared in the arrival was 5,06,643 bales.
(Business Recorder September 4, 2010) Imports of 4 M cotton bales
The cotton output in the country is likely to be lower by 18.5% because of floods, PCGA Chairman told here. "I am expecting loss of 18.5% of cotton due to recent flood in Punjab and Sindh," he said that government had targeted 14.11 M bales but now only 11.5 M bales production is expected. According to him, devastating floods and heavy rains severely damaged the cotton crop in the country. Floodaffected areas in Punjab are estimated at 1.415 M acres (1415.6 thousand acres) while in Sindh it is about 303.2 thousand acres. The total area damaged is calculated at about 1.719M acres (1719.8 thousand acres).
Cotton production declines by 22.95%
Flood damage to Pakistan's key cotton crop has cut deep into the forecast for the 2010/11 season, industry officials said, adding the country is likely to import at least 4 M bales. The monsoon flooding, which started over a month ago, damaged about 524,000 hectares (1.3 M acres), out of the total 3.20 M hectares, under cultivation in the major cotton-growing areas of central Punjab and southern Sindh province. Government and industry officials now estimate output of about 11.6 M bales of 170 kg (374.8 lb) each against the government target of 14 M bales. "We will have to probably import a minimum of 4 M bales to meet our demand this season after floods damaged up to 2.25 M bales," a senior official at the private All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, told Reuters.
(Business Recorder September 8, 2010) Growth in Textile export
(Business Recorder September 15, 2010)
(Business Recorder September 14, 2010)
According to the assessment of the United Nations, over 1.31 M hectares of the cultivated area has been
Cotton production has declined by 22.95% as the arrival recorded at
The country's textile export has posted a healthy growth of 23% during the 1st 2 months of the FY 2010-11 mainly due to high unit price in the world market. 02
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According to statistics released by Federal Statistics Bureau, the country's overall textile export have reached $1.975 B mark during the first two months (July-August) of the CFY as compared to $1.601 B exports during the same period of the last FY, depicting an increase of 23.34% or $370 M.
(Business Recorder September 23, 2010) Worlds cotton output, consumption
coming Christmas and New Year events in the West. "Exporters always book orders at least three months ahead of the next season, and if the raw commodity price is higher or short on the local market then striking deals with global buyers becomes difficult," Value-added Textile Forum Co-ordinator said.
(Business Recorder October 20, 2010) Duty on PTA cut to 3%
Representatives of different valueadded organizations, while talking said on that the value added textile industry is crippled owing to frequent load shedding, high electricity and gas tariff, multiple duties and taxes, resulting in high cost of doing business in Pakistan, as compared to the neighbouring states. Chairman said that end product cost has increased manifolds, which is no more acceptable to USA and Europe. The prices of the corresponding period last year, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said. The surge in export numbers can be attributed to higher global demand and increased per unit price of Pakistani textile products. Despite surge in the amount realised, the quantity exported of almost all the products under the category witnessed decline. According to the data, raw cotton exports declined to $7.202 M during July-September against $40.458 M in the corresponding period last year, thereby, witnessing a decline of 82.2%. Contrary to this, cotton yarn exports witnessed growth. The cotton yarn exports reached up to $353.617 M, recording 2.08% growth against the previous years exports of $346.402 M. During the period under review, goods such as cotton cloth, knitwear and bedwear witnessed a surge of 22.88%, 15.79% and 14.73%, respectively. The exports of cotton cloth, which stood at $432.974 M, increased to $532.0.35 M, while that of cotton carded or combed dropped to $141,000 from $5.37 M. 03
World cotton production and consumption are forecast to balance around 25.1 M tons in 2010/11 due to 15% rebound in production and 2% increase in mill use, a statement of the International Cotton Advisory Committee said. The higher production in the USA and a surplus of five Mbales in India would compensate for the damage cause to cotton crop in Pakistan. It would also facilitate Pakistani spinners to cover the shortage through imports, it said. Beginning stocks will account for only 27% of the worlds supply in 2010/11, down from 35% in the previous season. The decline in stocks as a percent of supply suggests that cotton prices in 2010/11 will remain unusually susceptible to changes in crop prospects, the statement added.
(The News September 3, 2010) $1 B foreign orders may be lost
The government has cut customs duty on the import of pure terephthalic acid, a raw material used in the production of polyester fibre, to 3% from 7%. On the contrary, customs duty on polyethylene terephthalate for bottle resin has been increased from 7.5 to 9%. This was announced in a notification issued by the Federal Board of Revenue. In another major decision, the FBR withdrew all duty concessions on the import of 12 types of raw material and different types of yarn for the textile industry. Elaborating, an FBR official said the raw material from which concessions have been removed include textured yarn (nylon), polyester and other types of yarn, mixed staple fibre, yarn made from mixed wool and other products.
(The Express Tribune October 13, 2010) Garments export likely to come down in 2010-11
The country is likely to lose at least a billion dollars of foreign orders next summer because of the acute shortage of cotton yarn on the local market, manufacturers-cum-exporters of value-added textile sector said. Expressing fear, they said the raw commodity's scarcity could curb the value-added textile sector from meeting the export deadline for the
Due to high prices of end product, Pakistan value-added textile export did not seem competitive in Europe as well United States, resultantly export of garments is likely to come down from $3.2 B to $3 B during 2010-11.
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Knitwear and bedwear exports surged from $471.747 M and $420.532 M to $546.247 M and $482.461 M, respectively. Shipments of towel swelled up by 12.12% and that of tents, canvas and tarpaulin dropped by 38.67%. Readymade apparels showed escalation of 38.83%, overseas sales of made-up articles rose by 26.72% and other textile materials exports witnessed a surge of 84.27% during the period under review.
(The News October 20, 2010)
increased following a decline in its local production by a huge amount of 700 to 800 tons per day. The prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are stable in the market despite a surge of Rs.9,360 per ton in its rate by a local producer OGDCL. This was stated by the chairman of FPCCI Standing Committee on LPG and All Pakistan LPG Distributors Association Chief in a press release.
(The Nation September 5, 2010) Oil import bill increases
(The Nation September 29, 2010) Oil sales down in August
products in the month of August this year as against $7.35 M of the corresponding month of 2009.
20% decline in Refinery output
The country's refinery production has declined by 28% in August 2010 as compared to previous month mainly due to production stoppage at Parco after floods devastated the transportation network in the surrounding region. According to provisional figures, the refinery production in the 1st 2 months of FY11 witnessed a decline of 18% as compared to the same period of previous FY. Reviewing refineries individually, Parco witnessed its market share falling drastically to 29% in the two months of FY11 from 42% after production closure in August 2010. PRL and BYCO too witnessed their shares deteriorating to 20% (from 21%) and 3% (from 8%) respectively during this period. On the other hand, NRL remained the key gainer witnessing its market share surging to 24% (from 13%) in the two months of FY11.
(Business Recorder September 16, 2010) Dependency on imported LPG increases
The countrys oil import bill for the 1st 2 months (July-August) of the FY 20010-11 has increased by 25.28%, Federal Bureau of Statistics reported. Total oil imports, including crude and petroleum products, amounted to $1.9 B during July-September period of the prevalent FY from $1.52 B in the same period last year. On the contrary, the petroleum products imports stood at $933.1 M as against $994.7 M, showing a decline of 6.20% YoY in growth over the same period of FY10. Showing the similar trend, the quantum of the petroleum crude products imported into the country during the period under review reached the level of $950 M when compared to $509 M in Jul-Aug FY10. In addition, this group showed 86.90% YoY raise in growth. According to official figures released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics, in August 2010 alone, the petroleum groups imports swelled by 16.67 per cent on month-on-month basis. Likewise the entire imports in this broad category up by 7.19%. The FBS data revealed that Pakistan spent $858 M on the import of oil
The oil sales in local market have declined by 24% to 1.418 M tons during the month of August 2010. The decrease in sales of Furnace Oil (FO) and High Speed Diesel (HSD) were amongst the major causes for the overall decline, analysts said. The sales of HSD have declined by 34% followed by FO sales, which were down 21%, an analyst at JS Global Capital said. The oil sales during the 1st 2 months of FY11 stood at 3.285 M tons, down 8% on yearly basis. PSO sales during this period dipped by 12% to 2.2 M tons mainly due to its larger presence in the flood affected areas compared to growths of 17% and 14% witnessed in the sales of APL and SHELL, respectively. As a result, PSO lost its market share by 322bps to 67.2%. Meanwhile APL and SHELL improved their shares to 6.1% (up 130bps) and 14.8% (up 277bps), respectively.
(Business Recorder September 9, 2010) OGDCL to start drilling in Zin Block
Pakistans security forces have finally given clearance to the OGDCL to start drilling in one of the most prospective, but insurgency-hit parts of Balochistan, top company officials said. OGDCL will initiate drilling of the first well in Zin Block of Dera Bugti district, to check the size and quality of gas reservoir more than six years after a survey suggested presence of hydrocarbon reserves there, they said. 04
The dependency on the imported Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) has
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Work heads off later this month or in the first week of November, one of the officials said requesting anonymity. Some evaluation of the reserve needs to be carried out, but seismic and geological studies are already with us. The largest petroleum producer has engaged six platoons, 216 soldiers of the Frontier Constabulary for security. OGDCL will pay for their service and the company has even bought them equipment.
(The News October 12, 2010) OGDCL seen borrowing next year 21 gas fields - Ogra raises wellhead prices
Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority has raised the wellhead prices of around 21 gas producing fields due to variation in exchange rate and global oil prices effective from JulyDecember 2010. Ogra official said that impact of increase in recent well head gas prices will also be reflected in consumer prices effective from January 1, 2011. Ogra has revised wellhead gas prices of 32 gas fields and there has been made no change in prices of some gas fields. The government sets, through Ogra, the wellhead price and then gas is provided to the gas distribution companies, like SNGPL and Sui SSGC for sales to industrial, commercial and domestic consumers.
(Business Recorder October 10, 2010) Oil consumption falls
B during the first quarter of the CFY from $2.188 B in the corresponding quarter FY10, showing an increase of 9.33%, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said. The import of petroleum products came down by 10.79% to $1.295 B during the period under review from $1.452 B in July-September 2009. The imports of crude petroleum, however, registered a significant increase of 49.08% to $1.096 B from $735 M. The y-o-y imports in September fell sharply by 25.65% to $509.43 M against $685.2 M during the same month last year.
Once Pakistans most cash rich company, OGDCL now has only Rs.6 B in liquid reserves, which will force it to borrow from banks in the first half of 2011, a top company official said. The companys assets that can be readily converted into cash have come down sharply from around Rs.19 B in June 2010 after payments of deferred taxes and dividends, said the official, requesting anonymity. We can avoid banks in remaining months of this fiscal (Jul/Jun 2010/11) only if inter-corporate circular debt falls, he said. But I dont see that happening anytime soon. OGDCL awaits payment of over Rs.80 B by 5 refineries and the 2 gas utilities. The company has annual cash flow of Rs.93 B from sale of oil and gas and its strong balance sheet has helped it stay away from banks during last five years. The state-run petroleum giant will have to raise between $400 and $500 M from banks in fiscal 2011/12, he said. Loan proposals and negotiations for credit lines will start as early as December 2010.
(The News October 8, 2010)
(The News October 20, 2010) Deregulation of Oil prices
The oil consumption in the country has declined to 4.7 M tons during the first quarter of FY11, 7% lower than the same quarter last year. The oil consumption continued to post weak data following the flash floods as demand dipped 6% in September 2010 as compared to the same month last year. Likewise, oil sales were 2% lower from the previous month as the seasonal Ramadan effect kicked in as well. Analysts said that the shutdown of some power plants due to flood inundation and improved hydel generation ability proved demand dampener for furnace oil (FO), while retarded agricultural activity dragged down diesel sales. Hence, consumption in the 1st Q of FY11 was down 7% on y-o-y basis.
(Business Recorder October 8, 2010) Oil import bill up
The ECC of the Cabinet has approved, in principle, de-regulation of oil prices and Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM). The ECC has also approved to fix margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) and dealers which will result in reduction of oil prices by 35 paisa per litre if calculated based on price of October, an official of Petroleum Ministry said. The ECC has also directed Petroleum Ministry to seek ratification of decision from the Cabinet before its implementation. "IFEM will fall in controlled-deregulation because the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) will notify it from one destination to other destination but so far as prices of petroleum products are concerned, refineries and OMCs will determine the prices on monthly basis whereas Ogra will monitor it," the official said, adding that imported price will be benchmark for prices and refineries as well, as OMCs will not be allowed to charge over set 'bench mark price' to protect consumers interests. He said that in new oil 05
The oil import bill increased to $2.392
000 MWs The country's oil production stood at 64." said he added.907bpd in the corresponding quarter in FY10.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments pricing formula. and invited the IAEA to exercise safeguards and oversight of this project. He pointed out that one British company Oracle. (Daily Times October 8. 2010) Pakistan can produce as much as 7. but a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said she did not know about talks over a bigger reactor deal.TAPI gas pipeline Turkmenistan. China and Monteva Holding Inc." he told a regular news conference. "This project is based on an agreement signed between the two countries in 2003 about co-operation in the nuclear power field. However. The former Soviet state is looking to diversify energy sales from its traditional market. however. China and other Asian countries. including 735 km across Afghanistan and another 800 km through Pakistan. a Pakistani official said.946mmcfd in the same quarter last year. undermining efforts of the entities working in the oil sector. one UAE Company and a joint venture between Sindh and federal government for coal gasification are at various stages of initial work and the response from is very positive and they are willing to undertake coalbased projects in Thar and other coalfields of Sindh. then the power generation can be increased to 7000 MW.3% on y-o-y basis to 4. especially the refineries which are now running at 60 percent of their capacity. citing plans to build the No 3 and No 4 reactors of about 300 megawatts each at Chashma. POWER / ENERGY Two nuclear reactors for Pakistan (The Express Tribune September 21. . (Daily Times September 23. (Business Recorder October 09. The gas production. (Business Recorder September 22. as compared to 63.188 barrel per day (bpd) in the 1st Q of FY11. Canada for setting up wind power projects in Pakistan as 06 Turkmenistan. if the infrastructure is completed on priority basis and international donors like World Bank and ADB are actively persuaded by the government. Russia. the role of Ogra was more effective. Afghanistan. 2010) Bradford Power wants to set up wind power project A foreign consortium company of Canada and China M/s Bradford Power has shown interest to set up a wind power project of 200 MW in Pakistan and estimated investment of $500 M. slightly up by only 0. The official informed the Minister that the Bradford Power (Pvt) Ltd is a special purpose company established by A-Power. 2010) Agreement inked . Her comments also suggested Beijing may see no need to seek approval for the two new Chashma reactors from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).188 bpd per day Oil production has already notified the International Atomic Energy Agency about the relevant details.037bcfd in this quarter against 3. and is courting investors from the West. some of whose members have voiced qualms about the deal. The spokeswoman said China plans to help Pakistan expand its Chashma nuclear energy complex in Punjab by building two reactors in addition to one already operating and another nearing completion. Pakistan and India signed the framework of an agreement to construct a gigantic pipeline pumping natural gas to South Asia.700 MW of electricity will be generated from Thar coal with the existing number of projects and current pace of development by 2015. increased by 2.4% on y-o-y basis. P. holder of the worlds fourth-largest natural gas reserves.R. A delegation of the Bradford called on him.000 MW from coal based power generation projects by 2015 if the government aggressively pursues investors. 2010) Pakistan can produce of 7. an international council of governments. said Secretary Coal and Energy Sindh. says an official. "China The circular debt of the petroleum ministry has soared to Rs 235 billion. (Business Recorder October 19. in an exclusive interview published in monthly Energy Update. This was said by official of the Bradford Power (Pvt) Ltd while talking to the Minister for Water and Power. one Australian firm. The planned pipeline would have initial capacity for 33 billion cubic metres a year and would run for nearly 2. 2010) Circular debt update China on gave its firmest government confirmation yet of plans to build two new nuclear reactors for Pakistan. He said that there are projections that at least 2. 2010) 64.000 km (1. one joint venture with Engro.250 miles). the government will have to take some concrete steps to resolve the issue once and for all. is keen to revive plans to build the Tapi pipeline through Afghanistan to the markets of Pakistan and India.
"We have been successful in raising $280 M in debt for this critical project through IFC. 2010) KESC raises $280 M for 560 MW power plant transformers of the project. (Dawn September 24. 2010) Take over by OMV The Oil and Gas Development Company Limited has planned to drill 11 development wells in Uch Gas field area of Balochistan.000 BOE worldwide. 2010) Kot Addu Power Company (KAPCO) has posted a record profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 5. 2010) Further delay in LNG project The Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) has raised $280 M from International Finance Corporation. 2010) adding that the project is expected to come online. 2010) The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has reportedly agreed to extend $220 M for 969 MW Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project (NJHEP) in addition to $138 M which has already been leased. Sources said that IDB is leasing $138 M for some of the civil work components of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project (NJHEP). Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractor for a combined total of $215 M. official sources told. the profit before tax surged to Rs.089 B for the year ending . an official said. ADB and a syndicate of local lenders. KAPCO posts Rs 5. the petroleum ministry did not send the complete record of the project to the law ministry while seeking its advice on a deal finalised with the consortium comprising 4Gas and GDF Suez. Under the new policy likely to be formally approved by the ECC of the cabinet at its next meeting. (Daily Times September 3.2. The Bank has now offered lease financing of $220 M for turbines.000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) a day by 2014.7.000 BOE a day in Pakistan and 318. Purchase of power from small producers (Business Recorder September 28. It said that to-date 3 L/Cs have been posted to the Engineering. The Vienna-based oil and gas giant currently produces around 14. smaller local investors will sign sale and purchase agreements with Discos for 25 years. it has learnt.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments independent power producer and the said project will be completed in two years in Sindh province. from July 2011 to March 2012 period. Asian Development Bank and local lenders to set up 560 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant . (Dawn September 27. 07 (Business Recorder September 8. sources added. A formal request had already been submitted to IDB and Economic Affairs Division. Seismic data acquisition work has been planed to delineate a drillable structure at the field. (Business Recorder September 8. The company has completed geological mapping and seismic data acquisition work in Kalchas Block of Balochistan Province. 2010) OGDCL to drill 11 wells in Balochistan on June 30. Neelum Jhelum Hydro-electric Project With gas and electricity shortfalls on the rise. the government has decided to allow distribution companies (Discos) of Wapda to enter into direct power purchase contracts with small independent power producers (SIPPs) of up to 50MW capacity under a crash programme. According to sources.000 MW. OGDCL has also made preparation to start drilling of an exploratory well in Zin area of District Dera Bugti as well. The law ministry interpreted the project on the basis of partial information as a part of the summary did not reach it.730 B during the period under review. a multi-billion-dollar project for import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for 20 years through a consortium of European companies is facing procedural problems. 2010 and announced a final cash dividend of Rs. The ministry was asked to advise if the project should be signed in view of the Supreme Court judgment on the matter." KESC said in the letter (written to Ministry of Water and Power on August 27. in phases. The purchase will increase OMVs gas production in Pakistan to around 25. 2010) With short-term power deficit estimated at 5. The EPS of the company stood at Rs 5. Two wells are already being drilled while drilling of planned wells will start during CFY. OMV said in a press release.08bn profit after tax (Business Recorder September 4.78. An IDB appraisal mission is in Islamabad to discuss modalities of further financing for the project. generators and associated OMV has taken over Petronas International Corporations rights to explore and produce gas in Pakistan.75 per share. According to financial results.
2010) Generate 5000 MWs for 50 years The ECC of the Cabinet decided to withdraw 25% regulatory duty on import of raw sugar and allowed private sector to import the commodity.2 b and the government has to increase the prices by at least 28 to 30% within a year if it again fails to turn around the lossmaking power distribution companies. (The Express Tribune October 20. Argentina willing to assist energy sector. He also expressed his wishes to facilitate the contacts between the regulatory institutions of the two main markets in Condense Natural Gas (CNG). however. has entered a joint venture with Wah Industries Ltd. 2010) SUGAR Withdrawal of 25% regulatory duty (The Express Tribune October 6. the government would not charge levies. This time. The declaration of the region as a special economic zone and area of strategic importance has also been approved. said a key official of the finance ministry who deals with public sector enterprises. (The Express Tribune September 22. This was disclosed by Chief Minister Sindh during a press briefing at the CM House.26 M tons more sugar will arrive from India by next month.6.000 megawatts of electricity over the next 50 years.30 B subsidy. and we expect that the new company INFLEX-WAH would soon commence production of CNG cylinders in Pakistan to supply the internal and regional markets. (Daily Times October 12. Secretary Finance said that 1. 2010) Deputy Chairman Planning Commission. was reluctant to share by how much the tariff would actually be increased. (Business Recorder September 22.000 tons of white 08 . the man leading the reforms. Mehar and Daphro exploration licences and the Mehar and Mubarak development and production leases. for the first 30 years in a bid to attract investors. he said. 2010) Argentina expressed its interest to play the role to improve petroleum and power sector of Pakistan particularly Hydroelectricity and Gas Transportation sector. He.6 M tons stock of sugar is available with the TCP against 1. According to the press release issued by the Argentine Embassy. unveiled the broader contours for overhauling the bleeding The Trading Corporation of Pakistan has established two LCs worth $243 M for import of 320. He also said that INFLEX. He said that sugar price in the international market rose by 18%. A 1% tariff increase amounts to approximately Rs. The (power sector) business plan needs to be consistent with the allocated Rs. Change the culture. The total price difference has been worked out in the range of Rs.1 M tons for the same period of last year and 1. said the chief minister. learn to provide uninterrupted services and learn to pay for services. hinting at recovering the remaining Rs. TCP A feasibility study of Thar coal reserves has been completed. Briefing media after the meeting. confirming that two billion tons of coal reserves are available in Block II alone a quantity enough to generate 5. including federal excise duty and withholding tax. 2010) Surge in Electricity Prices from next month Giving details about the incentives. The Economic Coordination Committee has granted an incentive package to attract foreign investors to Thar.2 M tons of sugar shortfall is expected next year. the priority would be on improving efficiency rather than on increasing tariffs. Argentine Ambassador participated as guest speaker in the inauguration session of the Exhibition/Fuelling Pakistan 2010 at Karachi Expo Centre. he explained that the government would guarantee an internal rate of return of 20% to firms which will achieve financial close by 2015 and investors will be exempt from paying customs duties on the import of coal mining and construction machinery for a period of 30 years. holding a zero accidents record. Under the federal governments incentive package.210-225 B for the CFY. Ambassador of Argentina in Pakistan has been making efforts to persuade the Argentinean Company IMPSA Corporation to participate in the several hydro projects that the government of Pakistan has planned to initiate.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments The agreement includes the Mubarak. The decision to this effect was taken by the ECC meeting presided over by Finance Minister.180 B primarily from consumers. Thar coalfields would be declared a project of national security. He said currently 0. he said. As part of the package.
Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments refined sugar. 2010) Major gainers of Pak-EU trade CEMENT / CONSTRUCTION / STEEL Profitability remains up in 2010 Amid adverse economic conditions the overall cement sector performance was sluggish during FY (FY) 2010 cement companies continued to perform well in terms of better profitability and higher interest coverage.000 tons of sugar before Ramazan in 2009. TCP had finalised two deals of sugar import at $724. Sources told that with the opening of two LCs it is expected that first shipment of sugar would reach Pakistan in mid-September. Cement prices had remained around Rs. of 250.8 M tons in the same period last year. 2010) Loss of Rs.000 tons ethanol annually and after the zero-rated regime is implemented the exports could even reach 300. (The Express Tribune October 14. 2009 to import 200. On the cost front.000 tons of white refined sugar. Cement prices after peaking at Rs. Non-compliance with (government) directives indicated that undue favour was extended to the sugar cartel.325 per 50-kg for last few months. they added. a brokerage house said. The market leader Lucky Cement was also better off in terms profitability (13% net margin) while better performers in the north included FCCL and DGKC. Exports. The other contract for 70.72 per kg from Rs.September 1. amid volumetric growth of 9% YoY in total dispatches during the year. local agent of Scuden Middle East Dubai. The delay in import pushed sugar prices to Rs.7 B Delay in Sugar import will not only give a boost to the textile and leather sectors but the sugar mills would be the major gainers too as the proposed programme will allow duty free exports of ethanol to the EU countries. Ethanol is the key greenback earner for the sugar mills and the country has been exporting an average of 250. 2010) However lower prices shrank revenues. causing a crisis leading to a countrywide increase in prices and shortfall in supply. a 100% increase.4. 2010) Fall in Cement prices Cement manufacturers have reduced prices by Rs. local agents of Agrocorp International of Singapore. remain low for next few months until reconstruction activities picked up. A high official of Attock Cement confirmed that the price of the commodity has fallen by about 15%. Cement demand would The office of the Auditor General of Pakistan has established that the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP). Local sales in the first two months of the fiscal year fell by 15% to 3. rupee depreciation of 7% YoY alongside rise in power tariff and gas prices kept overall cost under check. The ECC of the cabinet had directed the TCP on February 3.2 M tons from 3. tasked with ensuring the availability of sugar in the market. (Business Recorder .15-25 per bag to Rs. Analyst said that despite worse economic conditions around the globe. 2010 for import of 320. as average cement prices tumbled during FY10 by 18% yearon-year topline of the sector accordingly recorded a decline of 14% YoY. Prices may fall further by Rs. the AGP concludes in the investigation.25-35 in the north region because floods have brought the demand down. delayed a decision on the import of 200.36.290Rs.325 per bag have started to cool down and are currently hovering around Rs. This will give a boost to the sugar industry and the production at the distilleries will be enhanced. Commerce Secretary said that the EU has unilaterally given the trade assistance programme to Pakistan and the 30% duties on export of ethanol from Pakistan has been withdrawn. declined by 09 The new plan of trade assistance by the European Union (EU) to Pakistan .000 tons sugar.5 per ton with two different suppliers on August 2. said the analyst. (Daily Times October 09. the local cement companies witnessed well net margins. he said. Analyst added that manufacturers might have to reduce the prices further because demand for cement has fallen since floods hit the nation. One deal.000 tons of refined sugar to cope with an anticipated shortfall following a decline in domestic production.265-275 during the next few months.000 tons annually. (Daily Times October 19. which account for more than 32% of total dispatches. in this regard Attock Cement realised highest net margin.000 tons was signed with Meshe International. superior interest coverage while the sector also continued to benefit from superior quality and brand image (reflected by higher retention prices realised by the company compared to the sector). was finalised with Shanig Associates Karachi.300 per bag. said an analyst at Topline Securities.
However. (Business Recorder October 20.900 M earned in FY09. due to Ramazan. Pakistan has one of the lowest ratios 10 .0.55 per bag in two months which. (Business Recorder September 30. (Business Recorder September 18. resurfacing 342-km of highways.9 M tons.581 M earned in FY09.569 B against Rs. A cement trader. 525. owing to passive domestic demand following the recent flash floods. The company's profit before taxation declined to Rs. analysts eyeing a potential decline of 4% in the industrys volumes in FY11. arriving at 2 M tons. sales were down seven percent. 2010) Lowest Cement Exports since Dec 08 Cement sales in September 2010 hit a 21-month low. 2010) Common External Tariff on import of cement in East Africa is likely to be increased from 25% to 35% that may hurt countrys export.18. "Current trend of cement prices may have a negative impact on the government's efforts to build houses for flood affectees. down 16% on yearly basis in the 1Q owing to factors ranging from the recent flash floods to poor law and order situation. sales were down 16% as reduced business activity in the month of Ramazan also took its toll. 18% lower from the corresponding period last year. In this regard. 2010) Pakistans Cement exports to suffer Analyst said that Lucky export concentration to the Far Eastern nations is 15% of exports while 5% DG Khan Cement exports are dispatched to Sri Lanka. Local cement exporters are likely to substitute African markets with Far Eastern markets. another cement trader said that cement manufacturers are operating at 20% capacity and any increase in cement prices reflects collusive behaviour. Similarly.16. analysts reckon.1.038 B recorded in FY09.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments 20% to 1. The board of directors of the company in its meeting declared that the company's EPS declined to Re. albeit slowly. The cost of sales increased to Rs.8 M vehicles on the road." he said. and reconstructing 128-km of damaged roads that provide vital access to remote and disaster-prone communities. (Daily Times October 3. dispatches for 1QFY11 stood at 6. has approved a credit worth $130 M in additional financing for the Pakistan Highway Rehabilitation Project to continue revitalising and modernising Pakistan's highway system. Hence.358 M.12. (The News September 7. growing at about 10% annually projected to increase to over 70 M by 2030. 13. 358. again.022 M as compared to Rs. unexplored potential in countries like Sri Lanka and Myanmar is expected to be the future growth avenue for local cement companies. On a monthly basis. (Daily Times October 6. said that quota fixation for every district and underutilization of capacity are the main reasons for the fresh bullish trend in cement prices. the local sales have witnessed a bruising start to FY11. with reversal in the current trend gathering pace from FY12 and beyond as reconstruction activities take shape.72 in the period under review against Rs. According to the financial results the company's net sales declined to Rs. down 22% on yearly basis and the largest yearly decline since April 2001. Analysts expect demand to pick up post 1HFY11. largely in line with its 10-year average decline of 12%. 2010 (FY10) declined to Rs 233. However. industry sources told. Pakistan cement exports could face pressure in short-term.275 B in FY10 against Rs. Cement manufacturers hope that their sales will increase by 20% when reconstruction gets underway. may compel the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) to intervene. 2010) IDA approves $130 M credit Cement manufacturers have raised cement prices by Rs. 2010) DGK Cement profit declines Cement prices increased The after-tax profit of D G Khan Cement in the year ended June 30.403 M in FY10 against Rs. on a monthly basis.63 a year back. The project consists of three components: rehabilitating 514-km of highways. Despite the restoration of pricing consensus among the cement manufacturers. 2010) Housing Finance to GDP ratio International Development Association.6 M tones in July and August compared with 2 M tons in these two months of last year. Pakistan has about 8.776. They said that Saudi cement exports are coming to the forefront (following a partial cement export ban removal).
Pakistans housing finance to GDP ratio is as dismal as some of the most underdeveloped countries in the world. Suzuki motorcycle sale to 1.021 units in July. prices of all Corolla variants will be increased by Rs 25.176 units from 70. Yamaha sales slightly plunged to 9.000 to Rs 15. sources added.609 units in the same period last fiscal.1 M-acre feet (MAF) of water and generate 4. said that dam would be the largest project in the countrys history. 2010) Cars sale surges by 10pc The sales of cars and light commercial vehicles in the country have increased by 10% during the 1st Q of CFY. The housing finance to GDP ratio is between 50 & 70% in developed countries. the amount has been handed over to deputy commissioner Diamer so as to start the land acquisition process.394 units from 1. Both the companies.588 units from 10.000 of Honda City effective from September 18. which enjoys big share in rural areas. has marginally increase its car prices with immediate effect. according to the data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association.000 per unit on all models of Honda Civic and Rs 35.519 units in the same period last year. said an authorized dealer.700 M for the acquisition of land for the mega Diamer Bhasha Dam project as the first installment. he added. Housing loans are normally provided to high-income groups and the share of private financial institutions is quite low.000 while Altis price will be increased by Rs 35. the overall sale in JulyAugust 2010-11 had swelled to 85.659 units in July.224 units in July. has plunged to 40.155 units in August 2010 from 45.130 units in the same period of last fiscal.955 units from 2.000 on different Suzuki models.408 units from 1. 2010) Fund released .e. Hero bike sales improved to 3. Pak Suzuki Motors Co Ltd and Honda Atlas Car Pakistan Ltd have also decided to increase prices from Rs 8. According to the sources of the Ministry of Water and Power. (Dawn September 22. sale of Honda bike. The report said that in contrast to the impressive growth in the banking sector. thus making the imported CKD and even local parts more costly as most of the raw materials are also imported. who had recently visited the Diamer Bhasha Dam site. gave appreciation of yen against rupee as a reason for this increase in prices. the project will also contribute 18 B units of electricity per annum to the national grid.September 16/Daily Times September 19.000. data showed.acquisition of Bhasha Dam WAPDA chairman. The sales during July-September period increased to 33.184 units in July. The report said that housing finance is out of the reach of low-income groups and housing finance loans are extremely expensive. according to a World Bank report on housing finance for low-income groups in South Asia. The ground breaking of WAPDA offices and colonies is expected next month. This is in stark contrast to India where the same ratio is seven per cent. Indus Motor Company. . i.663 units in September. while Honda has increased prices by Rs 30. Loans for residential housing and construction amount to less than 1% of the GDP in Pakistan. However. Similarly. (The Express Tribune October 12.500 MWs of lowcost electricity. In sharp contrast Habib motorcycle sales in August 2010 rose to 1. 2010) According to figures released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association. (Daily Times October 15.496 units against 30. In addition to providing water for agriculture.501 units in August 2010 from 3. It would store 8. (Business Recorder . however. This is despite the fact that the outgoing quarter remained turbulent for manufacturing concerns as both security issues and flood devastation 11 The government has released an amount of Rs. 2010) Sale of Japanese bikes falls AUTOMOTIVE Car prices increased Due to the unprecedented strengthening of the Yen which is at a 15 year high against major currencies.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments of housing finance to gross domestic product (GDP) in the world. Car sales grew by 6% to 11.561 units in July but its overall sale in July-August rose to 2.
Qubee committed to provide the customers amazingly reliable services. 2010) 12 .show rising trend Abu Dhabi Group has injected over Rs 2. it implies an influx of US dollars into the country while for Wateen Telecom it shows shareholders' confidence in the company and its management while supporting the business plan.2% increase in value in the previous quarter. launched in Karachi early this year. Import of mobile phones has already outnumbered the country's total import of cellular phones because they are low-priced with high communication features. dealers said. The country's import of mobile phones stood at $39.1 B in the Wateen Telecom Limited during past few weeks which is likely to be welcomed warmly by the general public and stock exchanges of Pakistan. the subsidiary of Norwegian telecom giant. CEO. (Business Recorder October 13. the mobile banking in Pakistan has gained tremendous popularity among customers with rapid pace as colossal amount of Rs 10 B was transacted through a single cellular operator in a year.2 B FDI' In its initial stages. (The News October 13.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments restricted their business operations. B OTHER INDUSTRIES 'Rico Diq project to fetch $3.7% increase in value. with its various m-banking services recorded over 6 M transactions carried under its brand EasyPaisa by the end of first year. (The Nation October 8. respectively showing an increase of 6. 2010) Electronic payments continued to show a rising trend as both the number and value of such transactions increased in the fourth quarter (AprilJune) of the last 2009-10 FY (FY10). For Pakistan.4 M and Tethyan Copper Company Pakistan plans to operate a world class copper. (Business Recorder September 14. as the demand for low-cost multi-purposed Chinese handsets continued to grow. is the newest entrant in the WiMAX market of Pakistan with an initial investment of more than $70 M and a commitment to bring high speed fast. The 1300cc market leader Indus Motor posted highest sales growth of 13% in the outgoing quarter. as compared to 8. 2 B benchmark.1 B Qubee invests $70m in broadband sector Qubee is receiving excellent response from its customers in Lahore and twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi where the service has been launched recently. Qubee. 2010) TELECOMMUNICATION Mobile phone import up Import of mobile phones mounted by 100% during July this year. depicting an increase of $19.4% increase in number and 8. reliable and competitively priced broadband internet to residential and small business customers across Pakistan. 2010) Telenor Easypaisa transaction crosses Rs. Chagai. according to dealers at Karachi's mobile phone market in Saddar. According to SBPs 4th Quarterly Report on Retail E-Payments and Paper Based Instruments released. Balochistan will get 25% profit plus royalty and taxes to federal and provincial governments. The volume and value of E-Payments transactions in the country during the 4th Q of FY10 reached to 53.8 trillion. (Daily Times October 15. Balochistan as a joint venture with Government of Balochistan with initial $3.425 M in July this year. "We have submitted a feasibility study to Balochistan government and having talks with Provincial government to conclude an agreement which will result in take-off for the project in next four years. Qubee said that Qubee has been actively involved in technology up-gradation since its launch in Pakistan.2% in number and 7. Telenor Pakistan. 2010) Rs 4. according to official statistics.2 B foreign direct investment over four years.2 B tons economically mineable reserves by deploying a cutting edge technology at Rico Diq. 2010) Injection of over Rs 2.591 M in the same period of last fiscal year 2009. (Business Recorder September 18. Company sources revealed the number of carried transactions has been increasing over a period of time that has reached 1 M in a single month with transacted amount crossed Rs. (Business Recorder September 29. said an analyst at the Topline Securities. 2010) E-payments .016 M in July 2010 as compared to $19. gold mine with 2.
it is considered necessary" to launch the new tariffs.9 M tons. According to data released by National Fertiliser Development Centre. He said that Pakistan managed to secure this tender after beating China and India in quality and price competition. the EU's executive Commission said in the EU's official journal. total fertiliser offtake in January-August 2010 stood at 4. has committed to invest in Pakistan Cables by taking up a 25% equity stake in the company business. The decision means Polyethylene terephthalate from Iran.953 per bag during the same period of last year. Moreover the government will import 20 thousands tons of TSP/MAP and 10000 tons of SOP/MOP in October 2010. and 38% MoM.3%. Pakistan and the UAE . (Business Recorder September 29.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments 14% decline in fertiliser sales The floods also hurt the sale of fertiliser. 2010) Urea consumption to shrink 27% in Rabi season Pakistan Cables has announced that General Cable Corporation. "In view of the magnitude of the countervailable subsidies found and in the light of the level of the injury caused to the (European) Union's industry.180 M tons against 3. and cumulative fertiliser offtake has been down by 14% in 8 months of current calendar year.000 tons. said that Pakistan exported almost 1000 km optic fibre cable to these countries.will face EU import duties of 139. Fertiliser offtake during August stood at 417.7% to 4. The duties are valid for up to 5 years and reflect Europe's concern that EU industry is falling behind oil-rich states with competitive and booming plastics markets. and African countries. (Daily Times September 26. 2010) US Company to invest in Pakistan Cables (Business Recorder September 30.1). TSP/MAP to meet the domestic demand for the coming Rabi season 2010-11. 2010) New duties on Pakistan plastics The government will reportedly import 230.116 M tons. and more orders were in pipeline for export.1. (Daily Times September 8. the overall off take of all types of urea fertilizer is likely to fall by 2. 2010) Import 230.7 M tons of last year. Official sources claimed the main reasons behind lower demand for urea fertilizer was said to be inundation of a large agricultural area with floodwater and high price of phosphate fertilizers prevailing in both domestic and international market for the last six months. The import of this urea consists of 100000 tons of DAP in December 2010 and further 100000 tons in January 2011 and total import of DAP for Rabi season is 200 000 tons.2. The General Cable will invest in Pakistan Cables on long-term basis after which the paid up capital of Pakistan Cables will increase to 28 M shares as compared to 21 M shares currently. sources told. (Daily Times September 26.34 euros per ton respectively until 2015. Offtake of other phosphate (TSP/MAP) products may also decrease. DAP offtake registered a decline of 53% YoY in January-August to 425. compared to 5. he added. The decrease was primarily down to a massive decline in August as a result of the floods. The investment will be on the basis of $1 per share. CEO Pakistan Cables Corporation said during the signing ceremony. 44. The offtake of DAP fertilizer is expected to decrease by 4. March). 2010) Pakistan starts optic fibre cable export duties on plastics from Iran.3% over last Rabi 2009-10.003 Mtons as compared to last year consumption of 4.000 tons import of different fertilizers For the first time Pakistan has started export of optic fibre cable to Afghanistan. Pakistan has huge potential for export of optic fibre cable. HQs USA. and a Fortune 500 company.520 per bag compared to Rs.02 euros and 42.256 M tons of previous season showing a decrease of about 2.used for bottles and food packaging . Chairman of Federal 'B' Area Association of Trade and Industry (FBAATI) and Director of Premier Cables. The urea consumption is projected at 3. Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates saying the three were illegally subsidizing exports to Europe's growing softdrinks market.70 euros ($188. 2010) $115m for Karachi port project The European Union imposed new In the coming Rabi season (October- The Board of Directors of the World 13 .000 tons. down by 14%. The decline has been on account of high DAP price which averaged at Rs.000 tons of Dye Ammonium Phosphate (DAP). (Business Recorder September 14. down 54% YoY.
2010) Pakistans agriculture industry. and 28 years maturity including a grace period of 7. He said export target given by the Ministry of Industries and Production and TDAP for the said period of April 2010 was also missed by $10 M. he explained. He said during the last 18 months till September 2010. the cargo handling time at this terminal will be a third of what it takes today at other bulk cargo terminals in the country. in an interview. He said the economic impact of the floods has yet to be fully quantified though it is evident that agriculture sector has been hit hardest. The financial close of the project was in July 2008 whereas physical work started in September-October 2008. and with an average discharge rate of over 1. This was decided at a meeting presided over by Minister for Industries and Production. The meeting also assured that gas curtailment to the sector would end as soon as gas situation improves. said WB Country Director for Pakistan. Many of these ventures were established with less than Rs 1. commitmentlinked repayment schedule.400 M a month. The financing is an IBRD flexible loan with fixed-spread. maize and sugarcane.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Bank has endorsed $115. The total investment of the project is Rs. 2010) Debut of Automated bulk cargo terminal more than $150 M in 18 months (April 2009-Sept 2010) due to power outages and closure of mines. he added. a pillar of the economy. 000. The export target set by APMMPIEA is missing by $10 M every month while production loss is being estimated to be Rs. The terminal is capable of handling 4 M tons of dry bulk cargo per annum. (Business Recorder October 8. the industry faced around 18-hour production loss on average daily. which destroyed 1. All Pakistan Marble Mining Processing Industry and Exporters Association (APMMPIEA) said. (The Express Tribune October 17. The meeting was convened to discuss national fertiliser strategy. (Dawn September 11. The ADB and the World Bank are assessing the damage caused by one of Pakistans worst natural disasters. level repayments. could take up to two years to start recovering from devastating summer floods. Improving the efficiency of Pakistans trade corridors is a key element of the banks support to trade facilitation in the country. 2010) Fertiliser subsidy to continue The government will continue giving subsidy to the fertiliser sector in the post flood scenario. said.3 M hectares of crops just before the harvest of key products such as rice. 2010) (Business Recorder September 18.500. informed CEO of Fauji Akbar Portia Marine Terminals Limited (FAP). the ADB said. chairman BMG APMMPIEA.5 years. majority of which were subsistence enterprises with less than 10 employees and an annual turnover below Rs 500. 14 The marble exports incurred a loss of . The scale of the project meant that a consortium would be required to execute it successfully. 2010) Marble Industry more than $150m exports loss (Daily Times October 3.9 B has already been spent on the terminal facilities. fully-automated grain and fertiliser terminal of the country at Port Qasim is all set to welcome its first vessel later this month. AGRICULTURE 310.000 tons per hour.000 small businesses were affected by the devastating floods across the country.000 investment. of which Rs." said a press release.000 small businesses affected by Floods Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority has estimated that around 310.8 M Karachi Port Improvement Project. SMEDA CEO revealed this in a meeting held to discuss rehabilitative steps required to counter post-flood recovery challenges facing the nation amid the worst natural disaster and rehabilitation of small and medium enterprises. he lamented. Agriculture may need 2 years for recovery The first of its kind. relying on loans from relatives and the accumulated life savings of these entrepreneurs.10 B. "Fertiliser sector will continue (to function) in the post flood scenario since countrywide agriculture productivity depends upon access and affordability of agriculture inputs. This translated into a heavy loss to the developing export oriented industry to the tune of $21 M in JulySeptember 2010.
Faysal Bank.8 M tons of wheat.55 acres of forest land 15 . sheep. They said that this year due to soil's better moisture level wheat production in barani areas is expected to reach 2. Final estimate would emerge once the SBP and the federal and provincial governments come up with precise calculations. donkeys. while the wheat production in canal irrigated areas would be around 23 M tons. (Daily Times September 3. 2010) 500. 2010) 1 M acres of forest land destroyed The SBP has received input from banks on what needs to be done to facilitate flood-hit growers across the country.300 B. Bankers say the SBP is devising a concessional agricultural refinance scheme for banks to ensure availability of adequate financing to flood-affected farmers at singledigit interest rates. it will be able to meet part of those agricultural import needs that will happen over the next two years. accounting for over 21% of gross domestic product. Banks should focus now on additional demand for agricultural loans created after the floods. told. Banks provide farm loans to about 1. The damages to total livestock became 1% if the 0. We are thinking within that time horizon we should be able to see the agriculture sector coming back. goat. farmers in barani areas managed to produce only 0. Banks will have to extend larger amounts of crop loans at cheaper rates Pakistan is likely to produce another bumper wheat crop during the upcoming Rabi crop season. said the head of an agricultural credit of a large local bank. 2010) Kick . (Dawn September 20. according to a report "Preliminary Assessment of 2010 flood impacts in Pakistan" conducted by Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC). a total of 973684. whereas About 1 Macres of forest land has been destroyed by floods in the four provinces and Azad Kashmir. camels. HBL. Initial estimate of this additional demand is Rs. he told. Even these figures were yet to be confirmed as decided in a recent meeting in ministry of livestock. the sources maintained. Nearly 62% of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. particularly in the Rabi sowing season. the newly-appointed SBP Governor is expected to announce a set of guidelines for concessional agricultural financing in flood-hit areas.50 M was compared the total livestock population 160 Mfigures as per 2006 census was to be relied.86 M tons last year. Most of small and medium-sized growers have no access to agricultural loans and they borrow from informal sources. The Agriculture Finance Committee comprising representatives from NBP. ratio of the died animals became just one percent. But bankers say they will also have to build a mechanism for heavier disbursement of development loans to enable flood-hit farmers to buy agricultural implements and inputs and to repair damaged water courses. etc are died during the recent colossal deluge. said a central banker.000 animals perished Initial estimates of the provinces revealed that the ongoing colossal deluge about 500. DG of ADBs private sector operations. Officials said that due to favorable weather conditions Pakistan is in a position to produce about 25 M tons of wheat as compared to 23. Farmers estimate cumulative annual demand for crop and agricultural development loans at Rs. Filling in this gap is a long-term policy issue. (Dawn September 20. horses. This would provide a basis for an immediate agricultural revival package that the central bank may announce shortly. sources told. Officials maintained last year. (Business Recorder October 16. 2010) Bumper wheat crop likely these areas have the capacity to produce over 2 M tons. mules. Agriculture is Pakistans second largest sector.000 animals including buffaloes. Now.5 M tons.250 B. UBL.4 M growers or one fifth of an estimated seven M potential borrowers. Askari Bank and ZTBL has submitted its report. officials at Ministry of Food and Agriculture said.2000 B whereas banks lending remains below Rs. According to the report available with Business Recorder.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Once the country gets back on its feet.starting agricultural activity to reactivate agricultural activity. The provincial governments were in the process of re-assessment and it would take a little more time before their final figures are tabulated.
Near East. including standing crops (e. (The Express Tribune September 1. irrigation. 2010) Damage to 3.3 M hectares of standing crops have been damaged countrywide damage to millions of hectares of cultivatable land. Food aid alone will not be enough. citing early estimates. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) forests in 9 districts accounting for 3.8% of total land area was destroyed while forests in 2 districts of Kashmir suffered damages. orchards and vegetables) appears Pakistans next wheat harvest is at risk after floods destroyed more than 0.75 B loss to cotton crop The scale of losses to the agriculture sector in the country caused by the floods is unprecedented and further unfolding. silt deposits and damage to irrigation structures mean that work must start now to clear and prepare the soil for planting and to repair water systems for upcoming planting seasons.2 M large and small animals. according to Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association. cattle. cotton and sugar cane.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments was damaged by the current devastating floods triggered by monsoon rains across the country. (i) Wheat planting season.000 farming families and needed additional funding to be able to provide seeds for twice that number. (Business Recorder September 8. The cotton crop in terms of value faced more than 30% of the total losses 16 .75 B.5-0. fertilizers and farming tools are not provided rapidly. Extensive water-logging. followed by Punjab where the recorded loss was 430887. Pakistans worst floods in decades have damaged 3. beginning in September/October.25 acres. cotton. rice. the food security of millions will be at risk. maize. 2010) Rs. completed in half of all the flood-affected districts.827 acres and Azad Kashmir 2202. 2010) Immense Losses to agriculture sector likely loss of 0.5 Mtons of seed stocks in Asias third-largest wheat producer. sugar cane. says Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO). Forest land in about 41 districts across the country has been adversely affected by floods.7 acres. An estimated 1. Response to needs in the agriculture sector cannot be underestimated nor delayed. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 46034. the FAO said. FAO is currently focusing on two time-sensitive challenges: (i) meeting the upcoming wheat planting season and (ii) saving livestock. livestock. If the next wheat crop is not salvaged.05 M hectares in 2009. the United Nations food agency said. Asia. and 6 M poultry (Department of Livestock).85 were damaged by the floods.g. millions of people have lost their entire means to sustain themselves in the immediate and longer term owing to the destruction/damage of standing crops and means of agricultural production (e.2 M livestock and 6 M poultry were lost in the flooding and over one M buffalo.g. followed by Sindh where 14 districts with a %age of 14. farmland). Unless people get seeds over the next few weeks they will not be able to plant wheat for a year.6 M hectares of outstanding crop The FAO said it had completed procurement for the provision of seeds to 200. with the heaviest loss in Punjab with 18 affected districts and an 11. The highest loss was recorded in Sindh where about 494559. Chief of FAOs Emergency Operations. (Daily Times September 4. rice. The latest cumulative estimates are as follows: The Agriculture Cluster rapid damage assessments. Europe and Special Emergencies. seed stocks. yielding 24. said.6 M tons of wheat stock needed for the wheat planting season death of 1. This planting season is vital as wheat is Pakistans main staple crop. The estimated loss to the cotton crop in recent flash floods in Punjab and Sindh stands at more than Rs. found that 1.38% of the total provincial land area.6 M hectares of standing maize. accounts for two-thirds of national cereal production (planted on 9. If wheat seeds.78 acres of forest land was destroyed. many farmers will miss this years wheat planting season.05 M tons) and provides 60% of the carbohydrate and protein requirement for an average Pakistani. Across the country. the Food and Agriculture Organisation said in a statement. and may not be able to harvest wheat again until spring 2012. sheep and goats owned by households in the flooded areas would starve if animal feed is not provided urgently. Chief of FAOs said.
according to data compiled by the Pakistan Dairy Association. With all these initiatives. It is to be noted that to enhance agri activities government announced many incentives directly related to agriculture sector like removal of sales tax on tractors and Benazir Tractor Scheme. driven by festival demand in Asia. PCGA Patronin-Chief said. The company was able to sell 21k units compared to 18. with higher volumetric sales and better margins. Findings have highlighted that at least 140. the highest level since Aug 16. Palm oil has advanced 18% from near an 8 months low on July 7. Our imports may decline after floods washed away our selling points and imports in July were 147. Poultry losses have exceeded Rs. And this trend would keep on at least in the short run.000 hectares of land valued at Rs. the worlds third-biggest importer of palm oil.237 animals have been affected.8% to 2. the water still floating in cultivated areas will also hurt the tractor sales in second half of the fiscal year 2010. Approximately 6. Among two listed tractor assemblers. Both these measures provided impetus for additional tractor demand due to lower prices and accessibility to lower income persons. Officials stressed that the numbers are likely to rise even further. according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. buffaloes. a traders group said.5. Along with this. The PDA has estimated that indirect losses to the sector stand at Rs. according to the initial surveys conducted. witnessed volumetric growth of 13% during 1H2010.40. 2010) 17 . Prices jumped 1.000 hectares cotton sowing areas across the country. (Daily Times September 14.5 M bales to 12. A severe jolt by this flood has also given a deathblow to the national economy.50. He said the country lost about 2. (Daily Times September 7. highest volumetric growth was witnessed in Millat Tractors. up by 13% followed by Al-Ghazi. 2010) Rs. the cumulative earnings of both the companies stood higher by 27% during 1H2010.4k units in same period last year. may buy 10% less of the commodity in October and November than in July after the countrys worst.7bn compared to Rs. Rs.644 ringgit ($850) trading break in Kuala Lumpur.6 M hectares had been destroyed. out of which 0. 5 B Livestock losses in KP and 188.8.131.52 M bales against the production target of 14.75 m used for cultivating fodder and animal feed has also been destroyed. 2010) Palm-oil imports may drop Livestock losses have reached almost Rs. Hence. the official spokesperson of the association told. Additionally Rs.666 tons. Industry experts said that tractor sales would likely to decline by 25% in the month of September. PDA data informed.4 M hectares. Cows. (The Express Tribune September 1.890 commercial poultry.5 B in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) due to the havoc wreaked by the recent floods.261 domestic poultry The worst-ever flood in the history of the country has almost devastated the basic infrastructure of the country and is still engulfing agricultural lands mostly in Punjab and Sindh.86 B have either died or been otherwise affected by the deluge.345 M.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments to major crops in the recent devastating floods.762 B. Hence net revenues for the company improved by 20% to Rs.ever floods destroyed villages. tractor sales have witnessed an increase of 11 percent to 38k units in Pakistan. which showed an increase of 9%. (The Nation September 8. Futures for November delivery declined 1.5 M bales in crop season 2010-11. which enjoyed 56% market share. goats and sheep worth at least Rs.674 ringgit. 2010) Tractors sale to hurt 1H2010.1% to 2.9. Millat Tractor.4.8bn last year.946 livestock have been killed by the floods while another 437. These include deaths of more than 369.07 M in fodders have been lost.48. Cotton crop had been sown on 3.05 M in feed concentrate and Rs.2 M in poultry feed. He said the flood affected around 600. as the figures released are based on initial reports.
2010) Surge in Seafood exports The SBP has launched a concessional financing and guarantee scheme.690 and in August it increased by 1. while River Chenab and Jehlum will probably deal with 5% water shortage. when Pakistan imported about 3 M tons of palm oil. 2010) SBP launched concessional financing official said. Provisional statistics of export receipts released by the SBP show that the rice exports soared to $360. The export in the same months last year remained $253 M. He expected overall buying for 2010 to be 10% higher as compared to 2009. According to a circular (SMEFD Circular No 15) issued under the scheme. a leading industry . (Daily Times September 25.18%. The sources said that during the next crop season.010 M against the exports of $9. (The Nation October 15. which will start from next month (October). Exports of seafood during August witnessed 55. Buying will not be as good as in September but I think it will remain between 150.95% increase over the same month last year. Minister of International Cooperation Canada.25% during the 1st 2 months of the CY against the same period last year. the Indus River System Authority said that the country might confront a 15% water shortage during the upcoming Rabi season 2010-11 for agriculture purposes as only 34. financing will be provided at affordable/concessional markup rates through banks. (The News September 22. (The News September 30. in a news release issued here said the contribution responds to agricultural recovery needs by providing seeds. as traders earn profits on current stocks in a bull-run global market.55% during July/August this year amid robust demand in the international markets.000 tons a month in the October-December quarter. vice chairman of the Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners Association. 2010) Palm oil imports seen steady Canadian Government announced further support in agriculture sector for those affected by the recent floods in Pakistan.Country may face 15% water shortage With 50 M acre feet (MAF) floodwater gone into the sea due to flaw in the water storage mechanism. Canada is providing urgently needed agricultural support to make sure that farmers can recover and 18 The seafood exports from the country Pakistan may buy up to 170. 2010) Rice exports up by 43% surged by 82. The fish and fish preparations during July-August (2010/11) were recorded at $29. Pakistan made large palm oil purchases in September. (Daily Times October 6.500 M has been allocated to encourage farmers to sow canola in the flood affected areas of the country for the current Rabi season. said.000-170.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Rabi season 2010-11 . Indus zone might face up to 20% water shortage. fertilizers. it said. seafood exports during July stood at $14.625 during August 2009. attributing the rise to a possible change in the consumption pattern.700 M against the exports of $16. according to the data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics. When the market is on a bull-run. Exports in August were recorded at $15. under which an amount of Rs. Imports from Malaysia alone stood at 203. According to the data.000 tons of palm oil a month in the OctoberDecember quarter. everybody is making margins on the current stocks. Today.296 M during July-August (2009/10). experts said. This was revealed during the IRSA technical committees meeting at the authoritys office under the chairmanship of IRSA Chairman to review the water availability for Rabi season 2010-11.044 tons. and tools and by supporting the rehabilitation of land and livestock sector in Pakistan. so they are buying. 2010) Canada to support Pakistan in Agriculture sector Pakistans rice exports have registered an increase of 42.5 MAF water would be available.74 M during the 1st 2 months of FY 2010/11.
97 M and the lending portfolio has reached Rs. which are synchronized with their Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. signed an agreement for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) Cash Management services.5 M). allowing these organizations to help meet the humanitarian and early recovery needs associated with the agricultural sector for the current Rabi wheat season. basmati and IRRI across the country.250 M to revamp. 2010) Production cost of paddy rises government decides intervention prices. MFIs extend loans on comparatively higher interest rates to clients without collateral.5. The network has sought a bailout package from the government and international donors to restore the livelihood of 733. He also said that the floods damaged 87 offices of microfinance institutions that will cost Rs. (Daily Times October 17. (Business Recorder September 15. These estimates have been provided by the Pakistan Microfinance Network. Normally. He said at least Rs.2. The Bank's SME Banking comprises team of qualified professionals who design and structure financial solutions that fulfil customers' requirements. the government of Canadas response to the flood relief efforts in Pakistan now totals $52 M.7 B worth of loans. to set The recent intervention prices were established by Agriculture Policy Institute (API) a sub-ordinate department of ministry of food and agriculture. Straight2Bank. The sector employs 11. said the Chairman of Pakistan Microfinance Network. He said that out of Rs. relief supplies.25 B. (Daily Times October 19.000 of these will have to be laid off if the government does not rescue the sector. water.5 M will be provided by CIDA from the Pakistan Flood Relief Fund to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation ($6 M). protection. Standard Chartered SME banking was established as a dedicated business in Pakistan with an aim to meet unique needs of its customers. Through this arrangement Standard Chartered will provide a comprehensive payments and collections solution. 2010) 40% of small borrowers are affected Production cost of Paddy (IRRI) in Sindh has increased by 21% to Rs. sources told.490/40 kg last year.8 B of microfinance loans were disbursed in those areas which have been adversely affected by the floods. In line with the Bank's SME Banking platform. said CEO of the Pakistan Microfinance Network. which has been extended to SME customers to help them manage their cash flows through electronic channels. shelter. Our help will also prevent further loss of livestock that is critical to the well-being of farmers in the flooded regions. sanitation. and coordination and logistics and for the restoration of links to communities cut off by the flooding. 19 MICRO BUSINESS & SME SME Cash Management Services Standard Chartered and Oasis Travel.595 per 40 kg in 2010-11 compared with Rs. The payments solution will be made available through the banks electronic banking platform. With todays announcement.000 people and 4.000 clients and will result in a write-off of Rs. health services.000 jobs in the microfinance sector. MFIs clients have reached 1.25 B.000 borrowers and save another 4. the government has announced intervention prices for super basmati. an umbrella organization for all the microfinance institutions.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments plant on their land in time for the critical wheat season currently underway. if the actual market price is unfavorable for growers the Recent floods have adversely affected . and Development and Peace ($2 M). the sources maintained. Save the Children Canada ($3. To safeguard the interest of rice producers. 2010) four out of ten borrowers of a small loan which will lead to the writing off of almost 11% of the microfinance institutions balance sheets.1 B is required to offset the impact of the written-off loans and to give new loans to affected individuals. Preliminary estimates show that recent floods have affected 733. A total of $11. Previous financial contributions were for the provision of emergency food. Rs. Cash Management is one of the focus areas.
he said. while three are under consideration. Under this programme. The offer was renewed by Head of Economic Affairs of Embassy of Netherlands. three projects in chemical industry and dairy sector are underway. they apprised. A senior banker of large a bank said banks could not afford to face further losses as the increasing load of NPLs has already reached to optimum point. machinery). The total funding of 1.SBP The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority. (The Express Tribune September 21. The officials informed MCCI officebearers that the Private Sector Investment (PSI) programme of Netherland government.5 M Euros (Rs. We have proposed to the government to create a special fund Credit Markup Sharing Fund for totally or partially subsidizing bank loans to the flood-hit businesses as well as to seek foreign donations for providing grants to the affected enterprises.176. 2010) deposits and the financial strength of savings of five Pakistani banks has been changed from stable to negative by Moodys Investors Service. Simultaneously. NBP and UBL has been downgraded to negative.5 M Euros allows spending on hardware (equipment. The suggested package envisages grants and/or interest-free loans to the flood-hit small businesses for rehabilitation. is aimed at alleviating poverty and strengthening private sector investment. commented Research Head at InvestCap.680 and the average interest rate is 25%.61 M). 20 FINANCIAL SERVICES Downgraded: ratings of largest banks Outlook on long-term local currency . (Business Recorder October 11. The long-term outlook of ABL. after achieving predefined results. Training of people and Project management. They said that the funding. The damage assessment in the microfinance sector is based on the estimates of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). 2010) NPLs estimate .HBL. (Dawn October 11. CEO of Smeda told. The profitability of banks will be affected going forward.50 B due to flood.28 B while the total NPLs caused by the flood was around Rs. The average loan size is $147 or Rs. recently proposed to the government fiscal measures for helping smaller enterprises hit by the recent floods. Real estate and operational costs excluded. available under 40-60 arrangement.42 B. one project in sports wear in Pakistan has already been completed. the ratings agency has affirmed that the foreign currency deposit ratings of B3/Not-Prime assigned to these banks. Non-performing loans are expected to increase. open in Pakistan since 2005 with an annual budget of 70 M Euros. The funds are released during the project. especially those extended to small and medium enterprises and to the agriculture sector. The SBP in an early estimate had said that NPLs could surge by another Rs. (The Express Tribune September 3. 2010) The flood has changed the trend of NPLs as most of the NPLs are being reported from agriculture sector which may hurt the governments as well as State Banks move to persuade banks for greater participation for the recovery of agriculture sector. 2010) Reviving SME businesses Holland offers 60% of funding Netherlands has offered up to 60% of funding to Pakistani projects (SMEs) having a maximum cost of 1. About forty-one per cent has been disbursed in the agriculture sector and around a third given out in the trade sector. The suggested package has been given to the federal industries ministry for getting the governments approval. the federal government and the World Bank. Our support package basically comprises two recommendations. So far the reported default in the agriculture sector has reached about Rs. MCB. while talking to the members and Senior Vice President of MCCI. he summed up.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments As much as 55% of small loans have been extended to borrowers from rural areas.2. is subject to certain evaluation to be conducted by Holland government officials.
This acquisition will be in line with the principles of shariah. which Engro believes is a good attraction for people who usually invest in long-term National Savings Certificates. The size of the Citibanks housing portfolio is close to Rs. As independent entities MCB AMC and Arif Habib Investments manage approximately Rs.1 B. (Business Recorder October 5. (The News October 12. in the half-year period ended on June 30. (The News September 29. 2010) Merger to buy Citibank Pakistans house financing portfolio had been accepted. 2010) Engro launches Rupiya certificates The net profit of the listed non-life insurance companies increased by 9%. the solution has to be transformational not transitional. analyst at JS Global Capital. claimed the bank. (Business Recorder September 9.1. said.000. The deal was delayed because the board took time to ensure that the acquisition meets Islamic banking laws. The investment income increased by 23% and the general and administration expenses reduced by 2% in the 1st half of 2010 over the same period last year. Bankislami announced that its offer . There are 415 customers. The total size of the TFCs.25.31 B (approximately $370 M) between them.460 B.2 21 Around 70% of the population of Pakistan with currently no access to banking facilities will have financial services by 2015 through Easypaisa. President and CEO of Tameer Bank said this while chairing the discussion on Financial Inclusion at the United Nations Private Sector Forum on Millennium Development Goals held recently at the UN Headquarters. The amount at which the acquisition will take place has not been disclosed.5% p. is Rs. The asset-backed issue of TFCs will be for a period of 3 years offering a return of 14. The acquisition will have to wait for regulatory approval by the SBP. Of the total. 2010) Bank services for all MCB Asset Management and Arif Habib Investments would be merged subject to all regulatory approvals and compliance. as compared to Rs.4 B. Both companies are rated amongst the best managed companies in the country. he said. A MoU was signed in this regard by MCB Bank and Arif Habib Securities recently.266 B to a total of Rs. a senior Bankislami official.7 B people in the world have no access to any formal financial services and if the financial inclusion goals are to be achieved. 2010. to Rs.. Bankislami said in a notice to the Karachi Stock Exchange. 2010) Citibank accepts Bankislamis offer Engro Corporation announced the launch of Rupiya Certificates with an aim to target retail investors and gather funds to meet expansion requirements of its fertiliser and food businesses. who did not want to be named. which may serve as an agent of positive change and a much-awaited good omen for the industry.475 M. (Dawn October 3. "This increase is primarily attributable to higher dividend income and lower provision for impairment during the first half of 2010 and low general and administration expenses". said a statement issued.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments The NPLs of banking sector witnessed rapid increase especially in the last two years as it jumped by 137% with an addition of Rs. said.a.434 M in the corresponding period of last year. 2010) 9% rise in non-life insurance sector profits He said that more than 2. which will be available at 11 banks and TCS outlets from Friday with a minimum investment of Rs. Analysts said that despite a 27% decline in the underwriting results. Our Shariah Board has given green signal to the deal. who will now switch to Islamic mode of banking. The merger is likely to provide the new entity the requisite critical mass to broaden the reach. MCB Bank's 1100 branches network in the country would provide wider reach to the various products being offered by the two asset management companies. The joint entity is expected to become the largest private sector asset management company. the listed noninsurance sector posted a decent growth in the bottom line. the initial offer is worth Rs. It will bring together rich experience and skill of the two groups in the financial sector. and demonstrated visible strength during the severe liquidity crunch and credit crunch of 2008.
Banking industrys deposits rose to The SBP issued revised guidelines for Infrastructure Project Finance to facilitate banks and development finance institutions (DFIs) in providing financing solutions to infrastructure projects in the country. mainly occurred in banks balances.2 B. subject to compliance with relevant SBP regulations.2% (70. 2010) Islamic banks grasp 6. etc.1% market share Rs 5. (Dawn October 11. Security Package and Project Insurance (G-2) besides Regulatory Compliance (G-3). 2010 regarding the subject SBP said in this connection it is advised that the federal government has included the entire textile sector of Khyber 22 . The Islamic banking witnessed a double digit growth in assets during the 2nd Q (May-June) 2010 despite the fact that a couple of Islamic banks went through consolidation phase affecting the Islamic banking activities. According to a Circular issued by SBP. (The Express Tribune October 15. The NPLs of banks registered a marginal growth of 0.4% in the January-March quarter of FY10. 2010) Banking industrys asset base grown Revised guidelines for infrastructure project financing for banks and development financial institutions (DFIs) have been issued by the SBP. collateral arrangements. government papers and public sector commodity finance.September 7. The salient features of the revised guidelines include the requirement for establishing a mechanism for generating feasibility reports and assessing risk mitigation means in the development. The Report pointed out that the banking system witnessed a letup in the inflow of fresh non-performing loans (NPLs) during the quarter under review that has been a leading challenge for the last two years or so. start-up and operation stages of the project. interbank lending. Referring to SMEFD circular 11 July 1. construction. According to SBPs Quarterly Performance Review of the Banking System for the quarter ended on June 30.4. (Business Recorder September 7.457 B in March-10) as compared to last two years average quarterly growth of 9. Collateral Arrangements.2% in March-10). 2010) (G-1). This was revealed in a circular issued by the SBP.128 B in April-June quarter compared with overall deposits of Rs.9% in March10) and net NPLs to Loans ratio declined to 3. 2010 to June 30. (Daily Times October 7. Due to contained increase in NPLs. security packages. project insurance and regulatory compliance.4% growth in its asset base to Rs. 2010. FATA and PATA. payment of markup rate subsidy on business loans to textile sector for the period from January 1. the provision coverage ratio of NPLs improved to 73. which was well supported by growth in deposits. which was adequately covered by loan loss provisioning. 2010.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments B with a green shoe option of another Rs.6 % to Rs. Guidelines broadly cover areas such as Credit Appraisal SBP directed all banks and DFIs to ensure fiscal relief to rehabilitate the economic life in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.1% in June 2009. the increase in asset base of the banking system.7%. The guidelines cover areas such as credit appraisal.8 % (4.6.460 B in April-June 2010 quarter (Rs. banks/DFIs have been advised to use the guidelines for developing products for financing to infrastructure sectors according to their policy and operational and market requirements. 2010) Markup rate subsidy REGULATORY Infrastructure project finance Pakistans banking industry witnessed a 5. (The Express Tribune .782 B during April-June quarter of the 2009-2010 FY (FY10) compared with a contraction of 1. said the report.1% at the end of June 2010 from 5.774 B in January-March quarter of FY10. 2010) New guidelines issued by State Bank Islamic banking institutions have improved their market share in the countrys banking industry despite prevailing of a depressive economic situation. The SBP in its recent report noted that Islamic banking continued to flourish and increased its share in banking system to 6.
as a percentage of GDP.5%. 2010. (Daily Times September 8. banks/DFIs should have mechanism to monitor changes in ratings (upgrade. 2010) MACRO ENVIRONMENT SBP projects 2-3% growth The SBP has predicted 2-3% GDP growth in the CFY despite severe flood losses. and all ratings used should be publicly disclosed by the ECAIs along with its history. The draft Securities (Margin Financing. The target set in the budget was 4. It projected an average annual inflation in FY11 at 13. 2010) More risk mitigating measures added The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan has approved the concept of Margin Trading System (MTS) with additional risk mitigating measures. increasing it by 50 bps to 9% per annum. The banks are also directed to form specific committees to address these complaints and ensure conducive environment for working women. the SECP has also decided to amend the draft Securities (Margin Financing. 1996. Securities Lending The SBP revised the refinance rate under the Export Finance Scheme. 2010 would be amended to allow the concept of Margin Trading System. The banks annual report for 2009-10 issued said there was a noticeable improvement in macroeconomic indicators during FY10 with the economy growing at 4. 2010. The SECP would also incorporate the viewpoint of the stakeholders to incorporate viable proposals to ensure protection to the investors and minimise risk to the market. 2010) Rate of Refinance up The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan has reviewed and amended the Companies (Issue of Capital) Rules. The rating agency should have reviewed/assigned the rating within previous 15 months. The amendments are being notified in the official gazette to solicit public opinion as required under sub-section (1) of Section 506 of the Companies Ordinance. These ratings must fulfil all requirements. In this regard.6% y-o-y rise in its food component. 1984 (the Ordinance). compared to 1. The previous refinance rate was 8.1%. (Business Recorder September 16.5-14. (Business Recorder October 6. these expenditures. downgrade and withdrawals) for accurate Capital Adequacy Ratio reporting.5% and fiscal and current account deficits at 5-6% and 3-4% of the GDP. 2010) Issue of capital rules and Borrowing and Pledging) Rules. A 10. In addition. . according to BSD Circular No 5 of October 5. were almost equal to the combined total for health and education. (Dawn September 9. adding that this was by no means an acceptable situation.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Pakhtunkhwa in Prime Ministers fiscal relief package for FATA/PATA/ Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. it said. The new rate will take effect from October 1. Securities Lending and Borrowing and Pledging) Rules.2% in the preceding year. The report said the total public debt and liabilities had substantially 23 The SBP has said that banks/DFIs would be allowed to use only solicited ratings assigned by recognized external credit assessment institutions (ECAIs) for the purpose of capital adequacy with immediate effect. (Daily Times September 1.5%. 2010) Guidelines to comply Anti-Harassment Law The SBP has issued instructions to all the banks to comply with the Protection Against Harassment of Women at Work Place Act 2010 displaying the Code of Conduct within their premises. The SECP has approved the concept of the MTS in a meeting held at the commission. (The Express Tribune October 1. The report said the impact of floods had strengthened inflationary expectations and the August CPI showed a 15. it said. 2010) Banks-DFIs to use only recognized ECAIs solicited ratings In a circular issued the SBP said that banks can charge a maximum margin of 1% on financing facilities provided to exporters. In FY10.7% growth in subsidies and losses of public sector enterprises was particularly disappointing.
3 % of GDP.75% rose at a faster clip than exports during the months (July-Sept) under review after a slight narrowing in deficit in previous months.179 B in the 1st Q of 2010 against $4.7% of GDP in FY09 to 69.2. The Ministry of Finance reported that the government has collected total revenues of Rs. In Pakistan. US and Europe were directly responsible for less than 15% of Asian economies export growth in H1-2010 (with the exception of China and the Philippines). 2010) Economy hit by flood Current account deficit of the country rose sharply by 48% during the 1st 2 months of the new fiscal. The rise in deficit appears to go up during next months as the country will start to import more oil and food items for bridging the domestic shortfall in power and farm produce. floods have hit economy hard.5% surge during the entire course of FY10.5 B and $10.27% in 1st 3 months of the CFY to a larger than expected $3. making this one of the worst natural disasters in history.5% this year as massive summer floods push up prices for food and other staples. The heavy floods in the Indus River resulting from monsoon rains have caused widespread damage to the economy.1%. reflecting poor performance of economy on external front while signaling a red alert for the ailing economy. 2010) IMF: Inflation 13.3pc in FY10 Inflation in Pakistan is expected to accelerate to 13. whereas the IMF expected it at 4. (Dawn September 22. the IMF said in its country report. Exports grew by 16. economist of Standard Chartered Bank Pakistan said. slightly below the 11. the IMF said. GDP < 2. Prior to the disaster.7% seen last year. Official figures released here on Friday by the federal bureau of statistics (FBS) showed that import bill increased by 19. 2010) Fiscal deficit reaches 6.14. He said nearly 20 Mpeople have been displaced. (The Nation September 1. compared to 5.5% this year. 24 Pakistans trade deficit widened by a robust 22. 2010) CA deficit widens by 48% borrowing by the banking sources to meet inflation-hit public expenditures also swelled the size of fiscal deficit to a great extent in FY10. while exports and imports were likely to be $20 B to $21 B and $34 B to $35 B.7% to $5. showing 14.668 B of GDP during July-June FY10. The trade gap ballooned as imports .8 trillion. 2010 against $7.5%. the governments heavy budgetary In 2010.8 trillion with 20. Similarly. The SBP reported that external deficit during July-August of the CFY reached $944 M against $635 M during the corresponding period of last year.261 B in the FY 2008-09.75% this FY year.850 B against $3.02% to $9. with losses estimated at $4 B (2% of GDP). The higher growth in the governments fiscal deficit is attributed to low tax revenues.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments increased from 68.495 B against the deficit of $9.437 billion last year. Asian export recovery has been largely driven by intra-regional trade with the US and Europe. (Dawn October 11.586 B last year. analyst said.029 B in July-Sept.2% increase while expenditure recorded at Rs. The economic outlook has deteriorated sharply as a result of the floods.148 B last year mainly due to rising furnace oil imports used in power generation. The fiscal deficit has reached a record Rs.5%.25%.5%.2% in FY 2008-09 and higher than the revised FY10 fiscal deficit target of 5. the IMF had projected average inflation for the current 2010/11 FY at 11. adding that GDP growth was unlikely to exceed 2. The last FY was much better for Pakistan as external deficit fell by 63% to $3.930 B or Rs. making limited contributions. (Dawn September 21. high current expenditures and shortfalls in projected external financing. The government earlier had targeted GDP growth of 4. (Dawn October 26. respectively. 2010) Trade gap widens Pakistans fiscal deficit for the FY 200910 (July-June) is reported to have soared by 6.5 B. It projected that workers remittances were likely to stay between $9.3.
000 tons.5 B. Damages: The floods have damaged public infrastructure. and the bad news is that it might not be able to even plant the 'Rabbi' crops in standing water. "We will not be able to plant rabbi crops because the water which reached the province after causing devastation in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa and Punjab is not receding at the normal pace as the slope of fields is not towards the sea".000 watersupply facilities have been damaged. this would follow growth of 4. with nearly 30% of cultivable land destroyed by the flooding. Agriculture and Livestock estimates losses to the agriculture sector at $ 2.5% from 4.8 B losses to Sindh Sindh has suffered Rs. leaving most of the affected households without shelter. Sources in the planning commission said the report had only highlighted . exacerbating the existing energy crisis and further stalling growth. IMF role: Relations with the IMF hit a roadblock in June 2010.1% in FY10. depending on the extent of the damage and the measures taken by the government to reconstruct and rebuild the affected areas.122.5%. Individuals. after the government missed key performance targets in areas including the fiscal deficit. According to the report. borrowing from the central bank and implementation of the value added tax (VAT).8 B loss on account of damage to various sectors of the economy.446. with road links cut off. "The situation is that water is not receding in the affected areas of the province. but the reconstruction of infrastructure again and compensation to be paid to people who had lost their sources of livelihood would cast between $25 B to $30 B.4 46. the details will be known only after the completion of a damage assessment report jointly initiated by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). while over 300 rice and other mills have so far been damaged.5 B the damage caused by floods. the backbone of the economy. The power infrastructure has also been badly damaged. due in October. Balochistan Rs. Initial estimates suggest that total loss in the province by flood was Rs. Sindh suffered the maximum damage amounting to around Rs350 billion. Losses to the economy are estimated at close to $4 B (2% of GDP). he informed. The country expects a significant slowdown in GDP growth in FY11 (ends June 2011) and lower growth forecast to 2.000 bridges and more than 400 km of road infrastructure have been destroyed. The Ministry of Food. followed by Punjab Rs.1 B in agriculture sector on account of damage to crops over 3. More than 2. it said.2 M acres of cropland is under water. 175 health centres and 1. severely hampering supply of essential food commodities to villages and towns.253 B. and gas and petroleum supplies suspended.5 B (over Rs800 B) in recent floods. Agriculture analyst said the floods have caused widespread damage to the standing crop.103 B. (Daily Times September 9. with supply of 1. he added. suffered losses of crops and livestock to the tune of Rs. (Dawn October 13. and might remain in the cropping areas for quite some time" said by advisor to Sindh chief minister for planning and development.55 B and Fata Rs.25 M houses have been completely destroyed. versus earlier forecast of 12%. However. according to the National Disaster Management Agency.11. The National Highway Authority estimates nearly 1. 2010) Rs.8 B.428 B. in terms of damaged crops. he maintained.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Nearly 1. over 2.88 B with Rs.446. It is expected FY11 inflation to jump sharply to 15%.l4 B on account 25 A preliminary Damage Need Assessment (DNA) report prepared by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank says that Pakistan suffered a loss of about $9.500MW disrupted due to damage to power plants. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Rs.500 schools. and another $ 450 M in losses in the livestock sector. infrastructure and public and private property in the four provinces and Fata. power stations shut down. 2010) Flood losses at $9.000. He said that the government has to take decision for import of essential commodities to avert their shortage due to losses to crops by the floods. Livestock sector suffered a loss of Rs. He said that over 7274 villages and 43 towns have been inundated.
1%. (Business Recorder September 8. potentially. reconstruction and rehabilitation activities will subsequently have a positive impact on the GDP.40 B to municipal infrastructure as 43 towns have been affected with a loss of Rs. According to SBP major decline took place in FDI.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments of 200.2%. depicting an increase of $113 M. such that tepid gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.7 M. to $267 M during July-August of CFY against $405. Rs. The information showed that Pakistan exported food items worth $547 M during the two months against $425 M during the corresponding period of last year.15 M in the corresponding period of last FY 2010. travel services. depicting an increase of 17.26.1% decline in foreign investment Services trade deficit posted an increase of 18% during the 1st 2 months of the CFY mainly due to high imports followed by rising payments on account of transportation. with a drop of 50. however. (Dawn September 23.6 B. Losses in crops and livestock.4 M.4 M in same period of last FY.134. technical fee. Nevertheless. The SBP said that the country's services sector trade deficit was gradually rising and overall imports and deficit are on surge.2. insurance.043 B in corresponding period of FY 2009-10. travel and government services. 2010) 40. due to extensive damage and reallocation of resources to cater to urgent needs. the ADB says in its annual flagship economic publication Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2010 Update released. Total loss to the education on account of damage to 4. Services sector posted a deficit of $567 M in July-August of CFY as compared to $481 M in corresponding period of last FY.37. Services sector imports stood at $1. shortages of goods and serviceseven with rapidly rampedup importsare expected to put substantial upward pressure on prices. compared to the same period of last year. while in health sector the loss was estimated at Rs.156 B in July- The SBP said that foreign investment posted a decrease of $138.4 M as compared to $344. Developing Asias robust recovery from the global crisis is gaining further momentum.1% or $34. the likelihood of delayed sowing of crops in the upcoming season and. or 40. or $173.5.000 houses.3 B because of damage to 1. Moreover.5% is expected in FY 2011. the economic impact will be heavily negative in the short-run. 2010) Rise in food items export Asian Development Outlook 2010 Update The impact on Pakistans economic prospects of the massive flooding that began in early August 2010 is difficult to quantify. portfolio investment. damage to infrastructure.52 B.9 M in same period of last fiscal year. (Business Recorder September 26.000 km roads. registered a surge of 57. (Business Recorder September 18.9. 2010) 18% rise in services sector deficit posted August of FY 2010-11 as compared to $1. and Rs. and limited economic activity in a large part of the country will dampen growth prospects in virtually every sector. in the following season will create shortages of food and other commodities while 26 The flood-hit and food starved Pakistan exported 29% more food items during the last few months. mainly in stocks. to $171. imports under services sector registered an increase of 11% due to high payments on account of transportation.5 B following destruction 8. As the major transportation arteries of the country have been severely damaged.600 units was estimated at Rs.87% or $86 M. as 100 health centres have been damaged.10 B to government buildings.6 M in 1st 2 months of CFY against $60. The ADO Update on Pakistan said that the picture should also be a little clearer when an international donors conference is held in late November. Total loss to the housing sector was Rs.021. Similarly. irrigation Rs. Economists said that increasing deficit and imports of services sector is a matter concern. royalties and government sector. and policy makers should take some steps to check the reason of poor performance of this sector. However.000 animals. 2010) . Portfolio investment mounted to $95.1 M. Export of Services trade mounted by 5% or $27 M to $589 M in 1st 2 months of CFY relative to $562 M in same period of last FY.
the deterioration in the current account deficit may be limited to 4.5 M bales of cotton in the current fiscal year. the SBP said. reforms to that tax from October 1. Additional revenue measures are being formulated to generate revenue for relief and reconstruction. is expected to be higher than the eight percent forecast in Aprils ADO 2010 Update. are expected to remain strong. (The Nation September 4. If substantial grant aid is provided for relief. relative to the budget posted for FY 2011. for the most part induced by supply-side constraints. Flood-related damage and social safety net requirements will necessarily impact the expected deficit for FY 2011. These lower subsidies would require efficiency measures that produce saving equivalent to the 3040% increase in tariffs that would otherwise be required to meet cost recovery. Moreover. 2010 to improve revenue. This update projects average inflation in FY 2011 at 13%. Pressures on the current account will also intensify in FY 2011.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments undermining farmers incomes. including a 67% reduction in allocations to cover electricity tariff differentials.5% of the GDP to 4. among other factors. Specific tax measures included in the FY 2011 budget. (Daily Times September 29. External support in response to floodrelated damage will contribute to higher increases in development spending with the magnitude of the increase for FY2011.4% in FY 2011. widening the fiscal deficit from the targeted 4%.5% from an earlier target of 4. Flood-related expenditure will also alter the fiscal outcome. workers remittances. the SBP increased the discount rate to 13. The SBP in its monetary policy for FY 2011 projected inflation at 11 to 12% (higher than the federal government target of 9. The Government has fixed the annual textile export target at $ 14b for the CFY 2010-11 under the 5 years textile policy. therefore the Government and textile stakeholders should import cotton bales in time. (Dawn September 30.5%. include a 1% increase in the goods and services tax to 17%. which increased by 13. investment spending was reprioritized to secure more timely completion of key ongoing projects in the areas of transportation. 2010) Discount rate raised According to a Monetary Policy Statement issued. it will be even more important to address trends that were troublesome for the FY 2010 outturn.5%). as it was recorded at $986 M in July 2010 against $802 M in the same month of 2009. over the same period the previous year. In this context. Still. The FY 2011 budget targets a rise in federal government public sector development spending of about one third relative to the FY 2010 outturn.2% in July to August 2010.5%. hydropower. The textile export showed a healthy growth of 23pc in the first month (July) of the current fiscal year. The statement said the recent catastrophic floods had serious implications for macroeconomic stability and growth prospects. 2010) Export to Malaysia increased The SBP once again increased the policy interest rate by 50 bps. otherwise it would not be possible to achieve the annual textile export target set for the year 2010-11. and water. while the central bank will find it difficult to fully implement its earlier monetary stance in the present circumstances. taking outlays up from 3.3% of the GDP. which could lift tax revenue by 20%. because of fears of higher government borrowing and inflation and lower economic growth and revenue during the CFY. to be determined also by the absorptive capacity of the economy. Also. Highly provisional estimates suggest that economic growth for FY11 could come down to 2. The budget for FY 2011 also called for an aggressive 45% reduction in total subsidies. Pakistan's exports to Malaysia recorded a healthy increase of 81% with exports of RM 352 M in the 1st 6 months of this year as compared to 27 . as are improvements in revenue administration and collection. 2010) Export target linked with cotton bales import Sources in All Pakistan Textile Mills Association said that the country would face a shortfall of 4 to 4. Inflation. Revenue measures are more urgent in view of the massive reconstruction requirements. it will need to make substantial efforts to keep demand for credit from exacerbating inflation pressures.
According to details issued by the ADB. 2010) Pakistan falls 22 places to 123 According to the Economic Freedom of the World: 2010 Annual Report. 2010) Services exports up 4. services exports saw an increase of $28 M in the overall volume of trade services exports largely on account of improvement in receipts under government services and higher proceeds from transportation business during the period under review. building on key achievements made under the capital market development programme (CMDP) and financial (non-bank) markets and governance programme (FMGP). Pakistans score declined this year to 5. Hong Kong maintains the highest level of economic freedom worldwide with a score of 9. the bank said in a document. 2010) Pakistans economic freedom ranking falls The withdrawal of exemptions under the proposed reformed general sales tax (RGST) early next month is estimated to increase prices of over 122 major categories.58 in 2009 to 3. The USA fell two places to the 4th position.05 out of 10.91pc The Asian Development Bank has released the 2nd tranche worth $200 M of its second generation of capital market reforms programme early this month to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Statistics of Pakistan after the bank found status of covenants of the first tranche satisfactory. while only 35 (28.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments RM 194 M in the corresponding period of 2009 with rice and onion being the biggest contributors. including food items. Pakistans export earnings in services trade have slightly augmented by 4. and yield about Rs. Switzerland retains the top overall ranking in the Global Competitiveness Report of 2010-2011. it was sufficient to move Pakistan from 101st to 123rd place among 139 nations ranked by the WEF. The Asian Development Bank has decided to stop or abandon problematic projects and divert up to 28 . (Daily Times September 10.80 from 5.1 M in the reported months of prevailing FY.150 B in additional revenue to the exchequer. 2010) Trade finance programme The level of economic freedom in Pakistan dropped as its index ranking deteriorated to the 118th place from the 110th last year among 141 countries. would be brought under the RGST net. 2010) Release of $200m by ADB The World Economic Forum has revised downward the Pakistans global competitiveness ranking from 101 in the world to 123rd place among 139 nations. According to Global Competitiveness Report.91% to $589 M during the 1st 2 months (July-August) of CFY compared to $561 M in the same period of last year. overtaken by Sweden (2nd) and Singapore (3rd). (Dawn September 21. In the same way. 88 (71. says a new study released. which were currently exempted from general sales tax. (Business Recorder September 22. While this is a relatively modest decrease in numeric terms. says the report.95 in 2009. the rice made up more than half of the total exports with an export of RM 188 M compared to RM 46 M of last year registered a robust growth of 307%.50 this year. by 15-17%. (Dawn September 30. (The News September 14.2 M from $313. exports of services on month-on-month basis. According to the latest data obtained from Malaysian Trade Development Authority (MARTRADE) by Pakistan High Commission in Kuala Lumpur. Pakistans score dropped from 3. 2010) GST to cause price hike of 15-17% According to provisional statistics on services trade released by SBP. the reform programme envisaged a $400 M funding to support a second generation of capital market reforms. Of the 123 countries with economic freedom rankings dating back to 1980. A senior official told Dawn that preliminary estimates suggest that about 22 categories in the food group and agriculture. released by the Alternate Solutions Institute. stood at $305.5%) recorded increase.5%) saw their rankings decrease. depending on the tax rate to be decided by the federal government. (The Nation September 22.
2010) IDB approves $772. The E&P sector led the sector's earnings growth with a higher than expected growth of 49% on yearly basis in its profitability. recording a negative earnings growth of 24% during the 2nd Q of 2010.741 B recorded in the corresponding period last year.44. (The Express Tribune September 20.60. net foreign investment decreased to $455.132 B in the 2nd Q (April-June) of 2010.5%. as its profits jumped 76% on yearly basis. 2010) Zero rated Export Net foreign investment posted a decline of 28% during the 1st Q of the CFY. he said. the bank has handed over a list of around 30 projects to the government. Exporters should keep this in mind that all export will remain always zero-rated and there should be no confusion in this regard. while major decline was in portfolio investment. He said that with a view to promote exports and encourage exporters in this regard no tax would be imposed on any export good. (Business Recorder October 16. inventory losses and higher tax expense negatively affected oil marketing companies' performance.5% during the period. Auto sector's positive momentum continued in the 2nd Q of 2010.1 M during the 1st Q of the CFY as compared to $636. said Federal Board of Revenue Chairman. Analyzing the banking sector's profitability based on sample of 9 banks.1 M in the same period of last FY 2009. The Manila-based donor agency informed government officials of its decision. According to statistics. shown a 24% y-o-y growth in the 2nd Q of CY. Despite robust furnace oil sales.2 M for Reconstruction & Upgrading of M39 29 . The central bank said that net foreign investment comprising foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment had continuously weakened and net foreign investment registered a decline of $181 M during the 1st 3 months (July-Sep) of FY 2010-11. as compared to Rs.3 M The corporate sector profitability continued to register an upward trend. 2010) Corporate sector profitability The government will not impose any tax on any exportable good. With current decline. Lower cement prices due to disagreement in on pricing amongst manufacturers led to the downfall of the cement companies during the 2nd Q of 2010. mainly due to low portfolio investment. The financing was endorsed at the banks Board of Executive Directors meeting chaired by IDB President. (Business Recorder October 2. PTCL's profitability fell to 26% during the 2nd Q of 2010 deteriorated mainly owing to exceptionally high marketing expenses incurred. Despite the fact that KAPCO's profitability fell 8% in the 2nd Q of 2010. rising by an impressive 34% in the 2nd Q of 2010. which includes KAPCO and HUBCO. Fertiliser sector performed admirably during the 2nd Q of 2010 on the back of higher urea and DAP prices. (The Nation October 6. Islamic Development Bank has approved financing of new development projects worth $772. 2010) Decline in foreign investment According to a research report of a team of analysts at JS Global Capital Limited the total profitability of the sample companies of the corporate sector has increased to Rs. which stood at 67. the power sector considering our sample.3 M for its member states including Pakistan and $90-M leasing for Uch II power expansion project. Refinery sector profits experienced a slight breather as GRMs during the second quarter of 2010 recovered slightly. registered a y-o-y growth of 14%. The financing includes $167. Textile analysis indicates notable earnings growth in the 2nd Q of 2010 for the textile sector at large. According to sources.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments $1. which are either slow-moving or problematic and could be shelved for a better cause.5 B from these sources to launching rehabilitation projects in flood-affected areas. compared to the corresponding period last year. FDI posted a decrease of 9.
06 M was sent home by overseas Pakistanis. In September 2010.because of EU industry opposition.73 M plus $6. which indicated an across-the-board recovery in this sector. vegetable oil production moved up 2.05% starch & its products 17.10 M as compared to $777.64 M installment sale for Construction and Equipping of new Dental Care Project . Production of paper & board was higher by 22. (Daily Times October 7.64% etc. 2010) Remittances up 13.86%. $136 M plus $10 M (under terms and conditions of Jeddah Declaration) plus $6 M Loan plus $45 M T. 2010) Major trade boost Remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis continued to show a rising trend as an amount of $2. In electronics goods. Islamabad has agreed to take back illegal migrants returned by EU states. The production of jet fuel oil decreased 7. In Food group. signaling the improving conditions in this key sector of the economy. $80 M for Algadarif Water Supply Project Sudan. production of tractors was higher by 15.23% diesel oil 24. The production of blended tea was down 8. $140 M for Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project Bangladesh.39%.83% and pig iron 1. The scheme.A. The monthly average remittances for the July-September 2010 period comes to $882.09% lubricating oil 9. an amount of $922.27% furnace oil 1.12 M received in the same month last year.3 B) in Pakistani goods allowed into the European Union duty-free from next year under EU plans for trade assistance to the flood-hit country. Federal Bureau of Statistics reported.01%.05% in the 1st month of CFY. The move is meant to help Pakistan recover from devastating floods and maintain political stability.Indonesia.. production of TV sets was up 26. $15. Ministry of Industries index registered a 1.40% cooking oil 20.38% or $115. "This proposal will offer a real boost to Pakistan's economic recovery.04%. (Daily Times October 1.26 percent.18%.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments road in Surkhandarya region Uzbekistan.Turkmenistan.40 M loan for Development.05 % in CFY Jeans. though there will be no tariff cuts on Pakistan's main product .5% over the same period last FY. slippers and truffles will be among 900 M euros ($1.49% high-speed diesel 8. The production of buses was down 41.91 M installment sale plus $3.77% LPG 6.bed linen .29% and 32. Ministry of Industries & Provincial Bureau of Statistics indexes of LSM. OCAC index posted 5. grant for Integrated Community Driven Development Phase-II Project Indonesia.05% whereas production of deep freezers and air conditioners was down 18. registering an increase of 13.66% trucks 14.56% and solvent naphtha 41.09% LCVs 29.05% respectively. (Business Recorder October 12. up 14.17 M during the same corresponding period of the last FY.82% soda ash 12." EU trade chief told reporters.09% respectively. Quality Improvement of Semarang State University Project .87%. which otherwise remained under stress throughout the past fiscal when it recorded big falls in its production. motor spirits production rose 11.8 M or 13.5% 3. The growth was seen in all the three OCAC.94% and 3.13 M plus $13. The breakup of different sectors shows that in petroleum sector.12% and motorcycles 12. unveiled will suspend tariffs on 75 types of Pakistani-made goods which account for about 27% of exports to the EU. while at the same time taking into account sensitivities of EU industries. 2010) LSM up 3. $25. boosting sales by about 100 M euros.5%. In parallel.94 M.31% refrigerators 38.69% coke 18. as compared with $806. In automobile sector.06% kerosene oil 20. showing an increase of $314. The plan 30 Large Scale Manufacturing was up .67%. Production of cement was down 4.46% growth and provincial BoS index was up 5.29% jeeps & cars 45.36% wheat & grain milling 6. Most of the trade concessions will be on textile exports.61%. Production of cotton yarn and cotton cloth dropped 12.646 B was received in the first quarter (JulySeptember) of the CFY.63% and glass plates & sheets 13. During the month of July 2010-11.
87 B and in the previous quarter (Apr-June 2010).156. it was Rs. The total amount of $831 M for this agreement is divided as follows: Social Sector Health $130.957. Sources said despite record-high remittances and large foreign exchange aid flow. Sources told that the phenomenon of flight of capital has once again appeared on the economic scene of the country mainly because of exchange rate depreciation. including India. high external debt and political instability. Education $179. 2010) Pakistan. a noted multinational group manufacturing industrial and medical gases all over the world including India.2 B.76 B. US Co-ordinator for Economic and Development Assistance said that the agreement was an important element in the implementation of the Kerry-LugarBerman Bill.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments foresees suspending tariffs for up to three years. "We will implement our assistance in the most open.2 B Trading volumes at National Commodity Exchange Limited (NCEL) show a growth of 654% in the 1st Q of FY 2010-11.454. these countries are new destinations and safe heavens for the investors due to providing many initiatives and exemptions for the investors with regard to investment and regulatory environment. During September 2010. so that the people of Pakistan and of the US know where the money is going.762. which compete with Pakistan for textile sales to Europe.493.000. This represents a growth of 654% and 63% respectively. It must be approved by EU governments.264. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. While addressing the signing ceremony.825. During the first quarter (July-Sept) of FY 2010-11 NCELs total traded volume increased to Rs. Canada and Indonesia through various channels. 31 The local capital and money markets US and Pakistan signed a five-year partnership agreement under which $831 M will be utilised on various .820. has started construction in Sunder Industrial Estate (SIE) on a five-acre plot recently allotted to them.425. Malaysia and Kuwait the said amount of foreign exchange is being transferred to Bangladesh. Singapore and Hong Kong.000.31. he said. and reluctance of domestic and foreign investors to invest into the equity and real estate markets.711. chairman NCEL said.712. (Business Recorder October 8.1 B each of them with record highs. After Dubai. (Business Recorder October 1.74 B. transparent and accountable manner. EU officials said they hope for full approval by January. 2010) NCEL grows 654% in Q1 have witnessed above $100 B capital outflow from the country in the 1st half of current calendar year 2010 amid fragile economy and lack of investment opportunities. Ambassador. Total volume in the corresponding quarter of last year was Rs. the European Parliament and members of the World Trade Organisation. Currently. Agriculture $56. total volume was more than Rs. US sign $831 M partnership agreement programmes in key sectors.000. (Daily Times October 09. This group is investing over Rs.6. slowdown in FDI. generating the employment opportunities to nearly 2. 2010) Over $100B flew out The British Oxygen." said Ambassador. (The Nation October 13. and will include monitoring to ensure exporters from other states do not try to smuggle their wares into Europe via Pakistan to avoid duties.51. The allocation of $831 M is part of the more than $1 B in development assistance funds which US will provide to USAID programmes in Pakistan this year. and KPK $65.000 workers.25 B and average daily volume was more than Rs. 2010) Investment of Rs. he added. Stabilization and Humanitarian Assistance FATA $111. Energy $44. Economic Growth. Economic Opportunity $144. the investors seem unwilling to invest here and they have been transferring their assets and capital to foreign countries since the beginning of this year. Bangladesh.
the Federal Bureau of Statistics said. healthcare and welding products.16 B in September from $911 M in September last year.12 B in the first half of 2010.156 B during the same the 1st 2 months of CY.089 M in July-August (2010-11) against exports of $561. According to SBP. manufacturing / fabrication. 2010) Exports of services sector grew by 32 . from its peak of Rs. the data revealed.78% when compared to the deficit of the corresponding period of last year. Imports were worth $2.186 B as on June 30.177 B. The spokesperson added that this multinational group would deal in industrial gases.198 B in December 2009 to Rs. (The Nation October 9.87% during the 1st 2 months of the CFY against the same period of last year. 2010) Increase in Services exports 4. 2010. (Business Recorder October 10. as compared to preceding quarter. 2010) September trade deficit at $1. SBP is gradually increasing the mark up rates. but grew by 5% when compared to the same quarter of last year 2009. (Business Recorder October 13. 2010) Export financing declined Table: RISK & OPPORTUNITY TRENDS (Based on Current Developments) SECTOR Textile Oil Power / Energy Sugar Cement / Construction / Steel Automotive Telecommunication Other Industries Agriculture Micro Business & SME Financial Services Regulatory Macro Environment * Up Down No Change RISK OPPORTUNITY Financing under Export Finance Scheme for export promotion witnessed a decline of Rs. during the quarter under review. Exports stood at $1. The country's trade deficit for the first three-months of the 2010/11 FY was $3.745 M during July-August (2009-10).16 B Pakistan's trade deficit widened to $1. it will meet the significant and emerging needs in the metal processing. data provided by Federal Bureau of Statistics reveals.186 B at the end of June. the EFS outstanding amount declined to Rs.14 B in the year-ago period.193 B in March 2010. At the end of June 2010. against $1. Through its core business.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments This was stated by a spokesperson of Punjab Industrial Estates talking to a group of Journalists here. or Rs. 2010 as compared to Rs.78 B. It is worthwhile to mention that this multinational company has over 53000 employees world over.85 B compared with $3. construction.41 B in September last year. The rising mark-up rate of EFS may be a major reason of decline in financing as the following the directives of IMF to rationalize the mark-up rates under the EFS.50 B a year ago. (Daily Times October 20. compared with $2. (industrial gases). The services trade deficit during the period under review increased by 17. health care petro chemicals industries etc.83 percent by going up from $1. Overall services exports were recorded at $589. chemicals and defense. On the other hand.7.8 B. service imports into the country also grew by 10. EFS witnessed a decline of some 4%. in which outstanding amount was Rs.043 billion in July-August (2009-10) to $1.61 B in September this year.
Many are. 2010 All of these scenarios are work-in process and have deep and profound implications for Pakistan. Japan. (followed by Turkey. theyre market makers and confidence builders. (Outlook for a) US-sovereign debt crises US Dollar-Euro crises & the rise of an alternative reserve currency (Consequent or Concurrent to the Debt Crises) Rapid strategic divergence primarily between US on the one hand. 2010 If you strip away the political correctness. There is growing evidence. based on new extracts from a wide array of credible and reputable publications. Ellen Brown September 18. This is Economics 101 and the writing is on all the walls. for the key developing scenarios that were highlighted as key risks in our Outlook 2009-10 (of August 2009). has waned.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments and geo-politically. TIGHTENING THE NOOSE ON CREDIT SPELLS DISASTER Global Research. The global economy is highly unlikely to return to a sustainable path of normalcy anytime soon. These developing scenarios have been clubbed under the following heads: (Prospects of) Global Deflation. And that too is likely to happen once the next set of crises that are in the works have run their course and resulted in a global deflation (and in some places stagflation) of historical proportions. ACCELERATING GLOBAL RISKS SPECIAL EXCERPTS We continue to be in the midst of an unprecedented global. The much orchestrated recovery. if you will. Suffice to say that within these scenarios are embedded considerable threats as well as enormous opportunities for growth and strengthening. and analytics. courtesy of unprecedented bailouts. So keeping in mind the gravity. its Two years after the 2008 bailout. As a result there is widespread. prone to contend that the crises ended sometime in 2009. a case is being made. economically GLOBAL DEFLATION IMF ADMITS THAT THE WEST IS STUCK IN NEAR DEPRESSION Telegraph. in this months Tracker. Simon Johnson. It didnt. And there is ample proof. Russia. Point in case is the specter of the recent Greek default. in favor of this perspective. and uniqueness. crises. and support. and unprecedented. the ex Chief Economist for IMF offers an insightful explanation: most (global) economists arent forecasters any longer. financial and economic. however. in support of the case that the worst is yet to come. TRAPPED IN THE SPIRAL OF BASEL III. The pied pipers. create economic and political strife and lead to radically new geo-political realities. and set off global domino triggered by the next acute financial crises. Brazil) on the other hand A new US driven mid-east war targeting Iran The Af-Pak theater and the US/NATO end game economy and the whole array of industries. and China. Chapter Three of the IMF's World Economic Outlook more or less condemns Southern Europe to death by slow suffocation and leaves little doubt that fiscal tightening will trap North Europe. Britain and America in slump for a long time. of the current global situation. the hallmark 33 . By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard October 3. that would fundamentally start to alter the global power equations. by Dr. Yet most forecasters seem to lose sight of this rather obvious reality. the economy continues to struggle with a lack of credit. uncertainty and nervousness in the global marketplace. The appetite for massive new sovereign debt for the next set of bailouts is fast reaching a breaking point.
" he sighed in a speech earlier this month.The problem is that the strategy is indirect. Housing sales are down. Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sounds uncertain.Every indicator suggests third-quarter growth will be as slow if not slower than in the second quarter. who warned: The plunge in M3 [the largest measure of the money supply] has no precedent since the Great Depression. is widespread lack of demand. FED MULLS TRILLION-DOLLAR POLICY QUESTION CNBC . A growth rate of 1. ranging from the wonks at the libertarian Cato Institute to liberal Nobel-winner Joe Stiglitz. he said. there is insufficient money to buy goods or pay salaries. though.S.So the Fed is turning to a policy known as "quantitative easing. the Fedwhich purchases only government-backed assets. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets.Some policymakers worry that more easing could fuel market imbalances or sow the seeds of skyhigh inflation ahead. And many prominent economists. despite massive quantitative easing (essentially money-printing) by the Federal Reserve. This is why the US is not recovering properly.6 percent means even higher unemployment ahead. creating more economic activity. "Monetary policymaking in an era of low inflation has not proved to be entirely straightforward. former executive director at the IMF and now dean of IESE Business School in Madrid. so it is trying to convince investors to invest and banks to lend more. businesses and policymakers agree. in a vicious spiral of debt and depression. Commercial real estate is in trouble. an office park. is monetary policy . If only people and companies would buy more stuff. who would then spend more money. These are regulations and burdens on bank results that only make sense in times of monetary and credit expansion. Growth this slow is the equivalent of heading downward relative to the growth needed to get us out of the hole were in . Fiscal policy is deadlocked. The strategy has been termed "QE2" because it is the second time the Fed has used this arcane monetary policy tool .September 20. Consumer confidence is down. By Annie Lowrey October 20." Slate. 2010 Consumers are 70 percent of the economy. said the (new Basel) rules could hamper the fragile recovery.2 trillion that it will then spend to help goose economic growth. The money supply has continued to shrink in 2010 at an alarming rate. economy's biggest problem. Retail sales are down. a forkliftthen the stores and companies that make and sell that stuff would hire more workers. WHY NO AMOUNT OF STIMULUS MONEY WILL BE ENOUGH Salon. recovery could another trillion The U. Rather than buying space in office parks or forklifts. and they're in no rush to spend. so workers get laid off and businesses shut down. We are still trapped in that spiral today. There is also the risk that the Fed spooks investors. and just like that (or almost)economic growth .Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments of recessions and depressions. When credit is not available. like bondswill probably pick up long-term Treasury debt. By Robert Reich. September 21. Credit is issued by banks and is the source of virtually all money today. On Nov.S. apparently. WHY MOST ECONOMISTS ARE NOT HOPEFUL ABOUT "QUANTITATIVE EASING. are skeptical. the markets expect the Fed to announce that it has decided to create somewhere between $500 billion and $1. 2010 How much of a boost to the U. the Fed is using its license to print money. 34 . 3. 2010 dollars or two buy? That's a tricky question for the Federal Reserve At the Fed's August meeting it decided to reinvest maturing mortgage-debt in Treasuries to keep its balance sheet steady. Juan Jose Toribio." Essentially. the theory goesa car. So. Maybe were not in a double-dip but we might as well be in one. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard quoted Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research. a move many analysts saw as a precursor to more easing . The Fed cannot just buy up goods and services. In an article in The Financial Times titled US Money Supply Plunges at 1930s Pace as Obama Eyes Fresh Stimulus.
When normalizing for TARP. Greece: 312. the United States appears to do better than Greece. Having run out of conventional options of lowering short-term interest rates and getting less from their relatively unconventional tool of buying bonds to bring down longterm rates.Anyone who thinks China will get us out of this fix and make up for the shortfall in demand is blind to reality. the advantage in this race to the bottom.6%. But it cant run on its own because consumers have reached the end of their ropes. the U. Greece: 115.4%.5% (including GSE debt: 121. Forsyth September 17. duration risk. We've outlined a comparative analysis between a typical junk-rated sovereign issues. Say the White House and Ben Bernanke got everything they wanted to boost the economy. At some point these boosts would have to end and the economy would have to be able to run on its own. By Daryl G. on what terms? On two of the ratios. our policymakers may have to implement policies designed to narrow this funding gap.1%. Specifically. or GSEs. interest rates were slashed by central banks in reaction to the credit crisis of 2008. which we consider a 1-time expenditure. government has not taken any aggressive austerity measures to attempt 35 .the key ratios from which we use to analyze a nation appear very similar between the United States and Greece. will the United States be able to repay its debt and. In general. Jones.6%). they ballooned their balance sheets with massive bond purchases in what euphemistically was called "quantitative easing.Having the world's reserve currency gives the U. economies at or near zero percent. Despite this. spending for the first 10 months of the government's fiscal year is up an astonishing 10. September 3. DEFICIT AS % OF GDP: US: 10. despite their divergent credit ratings. we are actually most concerned with the risk related to future repayment. central banks have run out of basis points. 2010 First. DEBT AS % OF REVENUE: US: 358. even if fiscal and monetary policy werent deadlocked. the main weapon in their arsenal.S. their QE has had far less than the expected impact. central bankers are utilizing their next optioncurrency intervention . with projected deficits for at least the next fifty years. inflationary risks. currency risk. the middle class no longer has the buying power to keep the economy going . and debt as a percentage of revenue.4%. wed still face the same conundrum. Moreover. By Randall W. 2010 CENTRAL BANKS EMBRACE RISKY CURRENCY GAMBIT Barrons (WSJ).(however) United States has been running a deficit for 22 straight months.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Ultimately. Specifically.2%. SOVEREIGN & US DEBT CRISES SHOULD US GOVERNMENT DEBT BE RATED JUNK? Fortune. typically known as austerity measures . is it expected that the nation will be running future deficits. But the destruction of the world's reserve currency threatens to end the Era of Globalization The most newsworthy nation to currently be rated junk status is Greece . and so forth.S. Greece: 13.1%. which is certainly a positive. with short-term interest rates in most Typically. but if we include the debt of government sponsored entities. if so. After three decades of flat wages during which almost all the gains of growth have gone to the very top. in this case Greece. DEBT AS % OF GDP: US: 86. deficit as a percentage of GDP. which require incremental debt funding? If so." Now. the key ratios are: debt as percentage of GDP. and therefore pays higher yields to the owners of the bonds to make up for the risk. and the United States. the owner of a bond is subject to many risks: interest rate risk. In this instance. Then. as it relates to the United States. the United States actually has a worse ratio than Greece Specifically. a bond receives junk status due to its increased risk of default.
" Dagong has set off something of a hissy fit in the credit-rating world.S. U. in theory. 2010 CHINA'S CREDIT RATING AGENCY DAGONG DOWNGRADES U. 1 owner of U. outlook to be "negative. debt is worth heeding because it influences the thinking of the Chinese government and those in charge of investing surplus Chinese capital. and they do not adhere to objective standards. The Chinese finance ministry has directed the company to "participate in the construction of [the] Asian bond market.The result of the actions in Europe are that.S.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments to narrow the current and projected deficits. In contrast. Volcker is right that the mortgage market has become a subsidiary 36 . is pushing into international markets. So. We could use that term in late 2008. 2010 The big three credit-rating agencies that totally missed the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market Moody's. should U. future deficits should shrink and debt balances eventually decline. He said: The financial system is broken.increasing taxes -. Treasury securities. DEBT RATING The Washington Times. but let's be clear about one thing: Dagong is not a chump outfit. VOLCKER: "THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS BROKEN" Global Research. agencies employ more analytical rigor in the rating of their sovereign debt than Dagong." If for no other reason. As long as China remains the No. We can debate forever whether the U. But there's a newcomer in the credit-rating game . By James A." Chairman Guan Jianzhong told the Financial Times in July. including more than 200 analysts with master's degrees or doctorates and 50 with postdoctorates.S. as part of a symposium cosponsored by the IMF.S. Standard & Poor's and Fitch . agencies. The company also accused U. This summer. Beijing-headquartered Dagong. Dagong's appraisal of U.lower than that of 11 other countries (including China.which has a Paul Volcker (ex Federal Reserve Chairman) spoke at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank on September 23rd.S.S. While Americans still tend to regard U." Dagong gave our debt a mere AA .S. We know that parts of it are absolutely broken. October 3.S. the opinions of the Chinese matter whether we like them or not. the answer is quite obvious. like the mortgage market which only happens to be the most important part of our capital markets [and has] become a subsidiary of the U. In contrast. The company boasts of more than 500 employees. which it awarded an AA+). To add insult to injury. most European nations have taken aggressive actions on both the revenue -.S.Dagong Global Credit Rating . Bacon September 2. which share an oligopoly enforced by government fiat.to get their fiscal houses in order . deficits will expand for decades.and cost sides -.S. government debt be downgraded to junk status? If we simply look at the ratios and the future outlook. of contributing to the 2007-08 financial crisis by applying the coveted AAA rating to loads of junk subprime mortgage debt. "The Western rating agencies are politicized and highly ideological.still give the United States a AAA credit rating.S. under our current course.reducing government expenditures -. it rated the sovereign debt of 50 nations making up 90 percent of the world's economy. Treasuries as the "safest investment in the world. the dominant credit agency in China. (Yes) very different view of the strength of U. and I think its fair to still use the term unfortunately. government. finances. the firm declared the U.
mortgage records and foreclosure proceedings are out there waiting to be unearthed. mortgage lenders and servicers say theyre putting the foreclosure mess behind them. BASEL III: THE GLOBAL BANKS AT THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPICE. Banks were borrowing so much and so recklessly to play at the global casino that when the bets went sour. If the banks were at all adequately capitalized and the central bankers were prevented from manipulations.The simple truth is that as long as the derivative casino is still running and banks are allowed to continue their off balance sheet activities.Its troubling that the people who caused the problem have walked away and left everybody else to fight over who gets stuck with the tab.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments of Uncle Sam. 2010 BANKS CLUELESS ON FORECLOSURE MESS SEVERITY Bloomberg.3 trillion remain. one of the lessons the public should have learned is that the leaders of these companies often have no idea whats going on inside them. The biggest U. Global Research.. 2010 Shoddy mortgage lending has led bankers into a two-front war. FORECLOSURES Bloomberg. a bigger threat may be the cost to buy back faulty loans that banks bundled into securities . pitting them against U. In fact the banks are all insolvent. The problem was compounded when the central bankers turned a blind eye to how bankers defined what constituted capital so as to circumvent the need to maintain the capital ratio. The reality is these companies are so big and unmanageable. nothing will be resolved.. Volcker also said: I don't think anyone doubts that the underlying problem in the markets is the too big to fail syndrome.The biggest risks for banks may be loans packaged into mortgage-backed securities during the housing bubble. By John Gittelsohn and Jody Shenn Oct 21. there would not be any need for Basel III regulations . Basel III is pure spin and its timing was to assuage the deep-seated fears that there are no solutions in sight to save the fiat money system and fractional reserve banking. The aggrieved bondholders include governmentcontrolled firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This is an express admission that all banks would require such a long transition 37 The global Too Big To Fail banks are so precarious that literally anything can trigger a collapse in the coming months. collapsed. Eggert said in a telephone interview. We may be witnessing the same phenomenon again. Three years ago. One thing that remains unknowable is how many flawed home.S. bond insurers and private investors . but they missed (or . How can the ultimate capital requirement of 8 percent be adequate when leverage under Basel III is still allowed at the astronomical rate of 33:1?. BANKS FACE A TWO-FRONT WAR ON MORTGAGES. Theres no excuse this time for anyone to be surprised.. of which $1. The major global banks are all undercapitalized and this was all too apparent when Lehman Bros.The banks have only themselves to blame for the fix theyre in..and it is a no brainer to conclude that the banking crisis (if we are lucky) may be resolved by 2015 but it is most likely that it can be only resolved by 2017/2018 . Reading the commentaries on Basel III posted to various renowned websites and financial publications. the implementation of which will be delayed till 2017 and some till 2019. While federal regulators and state attorneys general have focused on flawed foreclosures. as the subprime mortgage crisis began to spiral. and that it never was a major problem. homeowners challenging the right to foreclose and mortgage-bond investors demanding refunds that could approach $200 billion. 2010 deliberately misled) the underlying message of the proposals..S. Dozens of federal and state agencies are investigating. And it is ironic that government-owned GSEs Freddie and Fannie are shareholders of MERS one of the main sources of mortgage fraud in the country. by Matthias Chang September 20. Its like a massive game of dine and dash. and the bailouts. By Jonathan Weil October 20. Its anyones guess what they might turn up . the people in charge of running them have no way to know if that is true. they were staring at a black-hole in the trillions.
The first indication that the game is up is when US treasuries are increasingly purchased by the FED to make up for the shortfalls by foreign creditors and to finance the ballooning US deficits. After all. the tipping point is reached and all hell breaks loose! . which is rather optimistic for the projection implies that the patient may be able to recover. Such intensification will affect Europe's already-troubled banking system. and a major part of that debt sits on the European banks' balance sheets.. serious questions may arise in the periphery as to whether these countries would not be better served by restructuring their debt and exiting the euro. . All of a sudden. AND SOON American Enterprise Institute. Portugal. Such deepening will undermine their public finances by eroding their tax bases and will raise questions about their ability to service their sovereign debt.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments period to comply with the new requirements! The stark reality is that the Too Big To Fail Banks do not have the ability and or the means to raise capital at this critical juncture. 2012.At the latest. which in turn will call into question the health of the European banking system. this crisis will likely intensify in the months ahead as markets increasingly focus on the intractable solvency and competitiveness issues confronting countries like Greece. some entities may start to get real nervous and unload the treasuries. Then. EURO WILL UNRAVEL. seriously threatening both the European and the global economic recovery.The eurozone's sovereign-debt crisis casts a pall over today's alreadyfragile global economic outlook. I cannot give a precise time-line as to how long the FED and the global central banks can prolong the confidence game. When confidence in banks evaporates for whatever reasons. hoodwinking the public and sovereign creditors that all is well. and Ireland. They also understand that a series of defaults in the eurozone's periphery would have devastating consequences for the European banking system. the consequences will be ugly and there will be massive social upheavals across the globe. There is little reason to expect a 38 The outbreak of a sovereign-debt crisis in the euro zones peripheral economies has been among the more important developments in the global economy in 2010. Portugal. At this moment.Time Line? Between now and anytime in 2011. By Desmond Lachman. Spain.. since the recessions of the European peripheral countries will likely deepen considerably in the year ahead as they attempt to undertake major fiscal adjustment programs without the benefit of currency depreciations. the banking patient will be in Intensive Care until 2017. Spain. It is my view that Basel III is pure spin and is intended to convey the impression that the central bankers and regulators have things under control. and the FED steps in to shore up treasuries. European policymakers fully understand that a default in any peripheral eurozone country would likely trigger contagion to the other peripheral members. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that the French banks are particularly exposed to the troubles in the peripheral countries. At some point. the combined sovereign debt of Greece. since they have lent the equivalent of 37 percent of France's GDP to those countries. To use an analogy. Sadly. and . as the recession deepens and unemployment rises with no end in sight. This is essentially what happened in Argentina in 2001 after several years of painful and not very fruitful austerity measures. September 2010 Ireland is around US$2 trillion. The more immediate threat to the continuation of the eurozone in its present form is the possible loss of political willingness in Europe's periphery to continue hewing to IMFstyle austerity measures.
By Angela Monaghan September 3. labour groups seek strong action against the undervalued renminbi. 2010 Chinas yuan will gradually become a reserve currency . calling for greater crossborder use of the yuan. At a time of high unemployment.Charles Li. .59 trillion). YUAN WILL BECOME RESERVE CURRENCY. warned that depreciation was a risk for the foreign exchange reserves held by developing countries. China has signalled a shift away from dollar assets in recent months. in a bid to diversify. Chinese threats of dumping US Treasury bonds are perhaps overstated. America is divided. 2010 The external problem is Chinas possible retaliation." she wrote in an article that appeared in the latest issue of China Finance.45 TRILLION OF RESERVES STILL HEAVY IN DOLLARS Telegraph. and has raised its holdings of South Korean bonds. Domestically." she said. It could withhold co-operation on North Korea and Iran. a central bank magazine. China could leverage its economic status as a large buyer of goods and services (commercial and defense) to hurt American businesses and jobs. "The outbreak and spread of the global financial crisis has highlighted the inherent How ironic that the worlds reserve currency issuer (the US) and its longterm rival to that status (China) are competing to nearly debauch their own currencies? Americas behaviour more effect than intent takes the form of quantitative easing. The Chinese Government holds the largest stockpile of currency reserves at $2.AN ALTERNATIVE RESERVE CURRENCY (Consequent or Concurrent to the Debt Crises) CHINA FEARS DEPRECIATION OF $2. there will be quite large depreciation risks for assets. Until now the allocation of China's foreign exchange reserves was considered a state secret. 39 . with 65pc held in dollars. the chief executive officer of Hong Kongs stock exchange. Multilateralism with a more prominent role for emerging market countries is essential now to prevent competitive currency debauchery by China and the US from blowing up the system. "Once a reserve currency's value becomes unstable. 5pc in pounds.45 trillion (£1. Why would they take action that would result in the very outcome dollar decline that China has worked to avoid? But other retaliatory options could hurt. 26pc in euros.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments different outcome in the eurozone's peripheral countries. deficiencies and systemic risks in the current international currency system. It has sharply increased its net purchases of Japanese debt. a vice governor with the People's Bank of China. AMERICA CANNOT WIN THE CURRENCY WARS ALONE Financial Times. and 3pc in yen. By Arvind Subramanian October 20 2010 US CURRENCY CRISES DOLLAR CRISES . The report was published in official newspaper the China Securities Journal and confirmed analysts' estimates that about two-thirds of the reserves are invested in dollars. "A diversified international currency system will be more conducive to international economic and financial stability. internal and external. Chinas takes the form of not letting its currency strengthen (which makes the recent monetary tightening deflationary for others). whose economic imbalances are far greater than Argentina's were. HONG KONG EXCHANGE HEAD SAYS Bloomberg News September 20." she added. Separately Hu Xiaolian. said in a commentary on the exchanges website today.US unilateralism runs into two difficulties. But US companies are ambivalent because capital is mobile and can escape the effects of the undervaluation.
Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments SWIMMING AGAINST THE MASTER CURRENCY CURRENT Sydney Morning Herald . corporate scandals. In foreign- "We have to recognize that China is the first real economic competitor that has ever threatened America's standing as the global economic superpower. 2010 . Ty showed me a story from The Wall Street Journal about how Turkey and China had signed a trade agreement that would." But America doesn't adjust well. It's hard to imagine a US politician making the case that Washington should pull back from its overextended posture in Asia and the Pacific or cede an expanded presence to China. policy terms. October 19. and reserve currency in coming years. By Joschka Fischer Germanys foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 until 2005. it has a way to go before its currency is attractive as a vehicle for foreign investment and holding reserves. and no longer need dollars Let me make certain that you understand whats happening. all three currencies have their critics. which one?. Robert Dreyfuss September 2." Few would argue that the rise of China has world-altering significance . the Obama administration started laying bricks in a Great Wall of Containment around China by mending ties with a brutal Indonesian special forces unit and taking sides against China in a potentially dangerous dispute over Beijing's claim to a string of islands in the South China Sea. only use their currencies in the trade. CHINA IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT The Nation. things here in the US will change drastically Just ask anyone who lived in the UK after WWII. The only question is. and yuan will share the roles of invoicing currency. Belarus. Shrinking Planet. euro. thus excluding the Given its rapid and successful development. Africa and beyond." says Michael Klare. when the sterling was no longer the worlds reserve currency Dont blame the Chinese.. October 4. settlement currency. folks The Chinese are taking steps to become the next reserve currency And when that happens. etc. either The Chinese are only doing this to protect themselves from all their exposure to the dollar.Along with China's growing economic power comes an inevitable corollary: China's eventual emergence as a political and military power wielding its influence from East Asia to the Pacific. Lets see now China has signed up almost all of Asia. although China is aggressively promoting international use of the yuan in trade settlements. where there is room for just one full-fledged international currency. author of Rising Powers. To be sure. the Middle East. like bubbles. Only this summer. Berkeley. China will attempt to protect its domestic transformation by securing resources and access to foreign markets. CHINESE YUAN: NEXT WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY? The Daily Reckoning. it could even emerge as the global power. professor of economics at the University of California. Brazil and now Turkey All of these countries only use their currencies in trade.. by Barry Eichengreen. Indeed.China was gaining a wider acceptance of their currency and removing the dollar from trading agreements Well.US VS CHINA / RUSSIA / OTHERS CHINA AS A SUPERPOWER Korea Times. by Chuck Butler October 10. And you could sprinkle in protectionism measures and a host of other things that have built up against the dollar in the past decade. Uncertainty about whether the European Union will hold together could limit the use of the euro.the US dollar. Argentina. And. "There are 40 . 2010 dollar. there can be no doubt that the Peoples Republic of China will become one of the dominant global powers (soon). Willingness to hold the US dollar may be undercut by concern with America's twin fiscal and external deficits. 2010 STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE .. the Indian Ocean. The US has brought this on with all its deficit spending. America has to adjust. despite the massive problems that the country is confronting. from now on. 2010 THE competition for reserve-currency status is conventionally portrayed as a winner-take-all game. "It would be disastrous for progressives to provide fodder for the military-industrial complex by demonizing China.
2010 China-Pakistan nuclear ties worry U." CHINA EXPANDS NUKE PLANS. Jordan. "It isn't just China's rise. fresh from a resounding constitutional referendum win by the AKP. then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee asserted that India and the United States were "natural allies in the quest for a better future for the world in the 21st century". There is a great new plan of creating a Middle East Union as a regional equivalent of the European Union with Turkey.S. despite an array of promising advances over the past decade. The comments by Thomas D'Agostino. The neocon plan to transform the Middle East and Central Asia into a pliant client of the US empire and its onlydemocracy-in-the-Middle-East is now facing a very different playing field. Chinas civilian nuclear investments in Pakistan have raised strategic concerns in the US and India. has set targets to invest $117. Reuters. "We need to find ways to accommodate China. came a day after China indicated it may see no need to seek approval from the NSG.S. President . LEAVES INDIA IN SHADE Hindustan Times September 21. some of whose members have voiced qualms about the plan to build two new reactors at Pakistan's Chasma nuclear energy complex. but they have set in motion unforeseen moves by all the regional players. writes Israel Shamir. U. And it's not a foregone conclusion that it will be easy. 41 In 1998. which is tectonic. India. CNNC is completing a second civilian nuclear reactor in Pakistans Chashma and plans to build two more. by Richard Fontaine. 2010 Chinas largest nuclear power company. Oct 22. the issue of Taiwan is a flash point. and if relations between Beijing and Washington spiral downward. but it's our own financial. Lebanon. political and cultural collapse that is cause for even more consternation. Libya and Syria last year. The empire faces a resurgent Turkey." In particular. Afghans and Iraqis floundering. 2010 The new Ottomans and the new Byzantines are poised for an intercept as the US stumbles in the current Great Game. the relationship between Washington and New Delhi is falling short of its full potential. Not only are the wars against the Palestinians. Eric Walberg October 1. China may not seek approval of Nuclear Suppliers Group Barack Obama's upcoming trip to India provides an opportunity to jumpstart progress toward defining a true US-India strategic partnership TURKEY AND RUSSIA DEFY AMERICA'S IMPERIAL DESIGN IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA Al-Ahram Weekly. China's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday Beijing had invited the IAEA to "exercise safeguards and oversight of this project. Turkey reestablished the Caliphate era visa-free tradition with Albania.S. As part of a dynamic diplomatic outreach under the Justice and Development Party (AKP). Twelve years later. official suggested on Wednesday the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) should address Chinese plans to build two new reactors in Pakistan. and to influence it.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments very powerful interests in Washington who want to set us on a path of confrontation. September 22. A senior U." REJUVENATING US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP Times of India.." says Orville Schell. Under Secretary for Nuclear Security.S. one of the few countries outside a global antinuclear weapons pact. or even peaceable. A news report quoted CNNC vice president Qiu Jiangang saying that both sides are in discussions over CNNC exporting a one-gigawatt nuclear plant to Pakistan.6 billion in nuclear projects by 2020. a conflagration between the two nuclear powers could erupt over the Chinese island. 2010 ATOM BODY SHOULD ADDRESS CHINA-PAKISTAN DEAL--U. which revealed plans to build a one-gigawatt nuclear power plant in Pakistan on Monday. In February Turkish Culture and Tourism Minister Ertugrul Gunay offered to do likewise with Egypt.
just as the latter has been doing with Russia. by Mehmet Ozkan 22 Oct 2010 in the context of the current shifts taking place in global power politics?. especially in Central Asia and Afghanistan. so to speak. Syria and Iran . Turkey has never officially supported the Uighur separatist movement.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Turkey also established a strategic partnership with Russia during the past two years.ties between the two countries have been deepening since former Chinese President Jiang Zemin's visit to Turkey in April 2000 opened a new chapter in bilateral relations. with a visa-free regime and ambitious trade and investment plans (denominated in rubles and lira). Blood and Oil. CHINA: ENERGY SUPERPOWER Asia Times By Michael T Klare What emerges is that the trajectory of Russia-China cooperation is beginning to substantially impact on the Western countries' core interests.This brings us to the threshold of a tantalizing prospect: is the great game over Caspian oil withering away? How relevant are US-Russia energy rivalries with the appearance of China in the equation as an energy guzzler that can keep buying all that Russia can supply? This is a new ball game. was made 42 . WIDENING REACH World Politics Review. which has historically been the main obstacle in Turkey-China relations . and the latter cannot but aspire to try to deflect it. including Russia. the two countries signed several agreements (and) Since then. With this in mind. not the artificial one imposed over the past 150 years by the British and now US empires . Turkey. it will be about offering incentives to Russia to hold it back from diversifying away from Western energy markets towards China. But safeguard it they will. Looking at it another way. there is immense geopolitical significance to the fact that Russia has appeared by China's side over the current tensions in the AsiaPacific region involving Japan. but emboldened them to work together. For Russia. TURKEY-CHINA MILITARY DRILL REVEALS DEEPENING TIES. . Medvedev's visit to China underlines emphatically that Moscow will be loath to allow the Russia-China strategic partnership to be eroded by its reset with the US. invasions by the US and Israel in the Middle East and Eurasia have not cowed the countries affected. where from the US angle the great game is no longer about driving a wedge between Russia and Western Europe. How Russia and China safeguard their growing strategic partnership from Western pressures will become clearer in the coming period. the growing strategic partnership with China enhances The news that Turkey and China had organized a joint military exercise at the huge Konya airbase in Turkey's central Anatolian region last month came as a surprise to many.Turkey's bold move with Brazil to defuse the West's stand-off with Iran caught the world's imagination in May. His previous book. since it concurrently acquires the leverage to compel the West to negotiate with it. What explains such a dramatic improvement in relations between Turkey and China? And how should this military exercise be understood Michael T Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and the author. Shrinking Planet. of Rising Powers.. By M K Bhadrakumar October 2. Instead. IS RUSSIA PLAYING THE "CHINA CARD"? Asia Times. strengthening its partnership with China gains it more strategic space. At that time. The US reset with Russia already has an unobtrusive objective of incrementally eroding the Russia-China strategic understanding so as to isolate China. 2010 Russia's capacity to withstand Western pressures.. creating the basis for a new alignment of forces. including the construction of new pipelines and nuclear energy facilities. In a delicious irony. What all this adds up to is that Russia is practicing its own version of a reset with the US.This is the natural regional geopolitical logic. Its defiance of Israel after the Israeli attack on the Peace Flotilla trying to break the siege of Gaza in June made it the darling of the Arab world. most recently.
Oman. 2010 Hu Jintao and Kim Jong-il in Jilin province explicitly placed China's Korean Peninsula eggs in the North's basket. but elsewhere as well. Especially striking has been the way Beijing has sought to undercut US influence in Saudi Arabia and with other crucial Persian Gulf oil producers. by becoming the world's leading energy consumer. China for the first time imported more Saudi oil than the US. On July 20.bloodandoilmovie.and with some of the same countries. here. At this point. Because energy is tied to so many aspects of the global economy. DEEP REASONS FOR CHINA AND US TO BRISTLE Asia Times.com. not only in the South China Sea. watch China. If you want to know which way the global wind is blowing (or the sun shining or the coal burning). Iran. The United States should insist on open access. the greater the risk of friction and conflict with the United States CHINA MAKES ITS NORTH KOREA MOVE Asia Times. China's state-controlled energy firms have also forged "strategic partnerships" with counterpart enterprises in these countries and in some cases acquired the right to develop major oil deposits as well. Jingdong Yuan Aug 19. WHILE U. This is exactly the path once taken by Washington . To catch Klare discussing China's energy superpowerdom on Timothy MacBain's latest TomCast audio interview. the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Washington is already watching with anxiety. only one thing is clear: the greater China's reliance on imported petroleum. China obtains most of its imported oil from Saudi Arabia. Kazakhstan. Although not competing with Washington when it comes to military aid. 2010 A long handshake between President The greatest geopolitical development 43 . Peter Lee September 2. click here or. told the Wall Street Journal that China had overtaken the United States to become the world's number one energy consumer. Libya. Kuwait. The idea that Beijing will acquiesce to the collapse of the Pyongyang regime and reunification under the aegis of South Korea is a discounted commodity. China called South Korea's bluff .Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments into a documentary film and is available at www. Beijing has been dispatching its top leaders to woo Riyadh. Sudan. and because doubts are growing about the future availability of oil and other vital fuels. Beijing has established close ties with their leaders. In 2009. promising to support Saudi aspirations without employing the human rights or pro-democracy rhetoric usually associated with American foreign policy. Eager to ensure the reliability of the oil flow from these countries. '10 Bristling over territorial disputes in the South China Sea fits American concerns that China is deliberately nudging the US out of East Asia at a time it is trying to reassert its primacy. At present. China will also become an ever more dominant international actor and so set the pace in shaping our global future. IS DISTRACTED. Tensions are also high on most fronts associated with China's attempt to reclaim what it sees as its rightful place. Rarely has a simple press interview said more about the global power shifts taking place in our world. Russia. By Robert D. Abraham M Denmark and Daniel M Kliman Aug 19. Kaplan September 26. '10 Beijing views the South China Sea as a leading indicator of how the international community will respond to China's growing power and assertiveness. the decisions China makes regarding its energy portfolio will have far-reaching consequences. An anemic international reaction will embolden Beijing. to download it to your iPod.and the United States is ill-equipped to respond. CHINA DEVELOPS SEA POWER Washington Post. That's the news for our energy future and for the future of greatpower politics on planet Earth. Fatih Birol.S. Angola. and Venezuela. a geopolitical shift of great significance given the history of USSaudi relations. in some cases providing them with significant economic and military assistance. RISING CHINA TESTS THE WATERS Asia Times.
at the northern end of the South China Sea . Consolidating and developing SinoMyanmar cooperation and friendship is our unswerving policy. 10 saying.China has the world's second-largest naval service. . The United States and others consider the South China Sea an international waterway. 2010 The most important lesson to have come out of the financial crisis is to worry about "black swans. this policy will not alter. With that backing.A NEW MIDEAST WAR IN THE MAKING 44 . The geographical heart of America's hard-power competition with China will be the South China Sea. by Fareed Zakaria October 18." WHEN NORTH KOREA FALLS . China considers it a "core interest. these harbors will be visited by Chinese warships and will provide warehousing for Chinese consumer goods destined for the Middle East.China is quietly incorporating Taiwan into its dominion.this is what could produce serious geopolitical instability. China is building a far-flung trading network.to the second island chain (Guam) and in the opposite direction. No matter how the international situation changes. even as it is helping to fund and construct ports in Burma. through which passes a third of all commercial maritime traffic worldwide and half of the hydrocarbons destined for Japan. from East Africa to Southeast Asia. To wit. By Clifford McCoy 16 Sep. CHINA.. in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's formulation.the collapse of North Korea . events that are unlikely but with the potential to cause major disruption. And with 90 percent of commercial goods worldwide still transported by ship. Sri Lanka. that the United States cannot credibly defend Taiwan." China seeks domination of the South China Sea to be the dominant power in much of the Eastern Hemisphere. Washington Post. Forget genteel rows over the yuan's value -. We are paying in blood and treasure to stabilize Afghanistan while China is building transport and pipeline networks throughout Central Asia that will ultimately reach Kabul and the trillion dollars' worth of minerals lying underground. Myanmar's generals can now proceed unconcerned by Western criticism of the election process or the results .. China is building a blue water navy. Hu was quoted on state television on September 8 IRAN . it is easy to imagine chaos on the Korean peninsula that triggers a series of reactions from Beijing and Washington that are competing and hostile. Once it becomes clear." These are. In geopolitics there is one such event that should have us all thinking hard -.When North Korea collapses.. Bangladesh and Pakistan. "China pays a great deal of attention to relations with Myanmar. . a few years hence. Myanmar leader Senior General Than Shwe's visit to China last week won public support from Beijing for his government's planned national elections on November 7. the Korean Peninsula and northeastern China. to the Indian Ocean. China will be able to redirect its naval energies. MYANMAR REAFFIRM STRATEGIC VOWS Asia Times. and thus to the entire arc of Islam.In an apparent snub to international opinion. That sea grants Beijing access to the Indian Ocean via the Strait of Malacca. ultimately to be protected by its warships America's preoccupation with the Middle East suits China perfectly. sea control is critical. after only the United States China's 66 submarines constitute roughly twice as many warships as the entire British Royal Navy If our economy remains wobbly while China's continues to rise this will have repercussions for each nation's sea power.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments that has occurred largely beneath the radar of our Middle East-focused media over the past decade has been the rise of Chinese sea power. We underestimate the importance of what is occurring between China and Taiwan.
The outcome is already locked in. troops still there. Whether they lose the House or not. Should the Republicans win an overwhelming victory in both houses next week. he takes credit for it. many of which would resonate with at least some voters and allow Obama to be presidential in spite of weak political support. it will cost him the election . Israeli-Palestinian talks are also faltering. The second option is to abandon his agenda. Both have political advantages and disadvantages and present an important strategic decision for Obama to make. For his part. His choices are negotiation. even with powerful majorities in both houses. Obama also has a third option. which is to shift his focus from domestic policy to foreign policy. At the same time. and there are a host of other foreign issues.S. There are a range of issues that need to be addressed at the presidential level. If it doesn't. he runs against Republican partisanship. and the Iranian issue wide open. or continued war. The war in Afghanistan is reaching a delicate negotiating state as reports of ongoing talks circulate. Obama does not have much time to lose in reshaping his presidency. The large majority held by the Democrats will be gone. If he focuses on foreign policy and the U. This was how the founders sought to avoid the tyranny of narrow majorities. There are two problems with Obama becoming a foreign policy president.S.Interestingly. The result will either be gridlock or a very different legislative agenda than we have seen in the first two years.S. knowing that it will be voted down. which is not particularly new territory. Afghanistan offers the least attractive venue. by George Friedman October 26. 45 . cooperate with the Republicans and re-establish his image as a centrist. when the president has been weak domestically. 2010 We are a week away from the 2010 U. When we consider the difficulties President Barack Obama had passing his health care legislation. The first is to continue to press his agenda. unless that success is a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. ranging from China's increasing assertiveness to Russia's resurgent power to the ongoing decline in military power of America's European allies. The Iraq war is far from stable. The international environment allows him to take a much more assertive stance than he has over the past two years. and party discipline will not be strong enough (it never is) to prevent some defections. one option he has had is to appear powerful by focusing on foreign policy. With the Iowa caucuses about 15 months away and the Republicans holding momentum. with 50. midterm elections. which would reinforce his image as an accommodationist in foreign policy. Obama now has two options in terms of domestic strategy. The first is that the country is focused on the economy and on domestic issues. they will still not have the votes to override presidential vetoes. The founders created a system in which the president is inherently weak in domestic policy and able to take action only when his position in Congress is extremely strong. with the sole exception of Afghanistan where he was assertive is unlikely to yield a major foreign policy success. if Obama's goal is to appear strong on national security while regaining the center. it is clear that he will not be able to push through any significant legislation without Republican agreement.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments WOULD A BEATEN OBAMA ATTACK IRAN? Stratfor/Real Clear Politics. Obama appears vulnerable and the Republican nomination has become extremely valuable. If the domestic situation improves. Whether the Republicans take the House or the Senate is close to immaterial . economy does not improve by 2012. Given his low approval ratings.000 U.The second problem is that his presidency and campaign have been based on the general principle of accommodation rather than confrontation in foreign affairs.The Democrats will lose their ability to impose cloture in the Senate and thereby shut off debate. the president will have to begin his campaign. they made the president quite powerful in foreign policy regardless of Congress Historically. the Democrats will lose the ability to pass legislation at the will of the House Democratic leadership. A negotiated settlement will be portrayed by the Republicans as capitulation rather than triumph .
and the psychology in Afghanistan could also shift. Moreover. This is a cynical scenario. If Obama were to use foreign policy to enhance his political standing through decisive action. military action against Iran's naval forces would be needed to protect the oil routes through the Persian Gulf from small boat swarms and mines. The most obvious justification would be to claim that Iran is about to construct a nuclear device. Iran is the one issue on which the president could galvanize public opinion. hurling troops at the enemy without a clear plan. Nor would the claim be a lie. but then would risk looking like Lyndon Johnson in 1967. hurt him more than an aggressive stance against Iran that failed to achieve its goals or turned into a military disaster for the United States. while the Democrats would be hard-pressed to challenge him. The Europeans are hostile to Iran but want to avoid escalation. So far. given that Obama does not have the 2003 weapons-ofmass-destruction debacle to deal with and has the advantage of not having made such a claim before. Nothing could. The issue is what he might have to do and what the risks would be. particularly after the crackdown on the Green Movement. Obama has avoided overt military action against Iran. There is little to be done in Iraq at the moment except delay the withdrawal of forces. In addition. nor is Iran without the ability to retaliate. Russian and Chinese situations are of great importance. Its nuclear facilities are in a number of places and Iran has had years to harden those facilities. the claim would confirm the views of the Republicans. The Arabian Peninsula. but it can be aligned with reasonable concerns. The Iranian Option: This leaves the obvious choice: Iran. anti-ship missile launchers would have to be attacked and Iranian air force and air defenses taken 46 . The Russians like the Iranians are a thorn in the American side. but that would require Hamas to change its position. Obama's policy toward Iran has been to incrementally increase sanctions by building a weak coalition and allow the sanctions to create shifts in Iran's domestic political situation. the situation in Iraq would improve if Iran were to be neutralized. are hostile. but they are not conducive to dramatic acts.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments He could deploy even more forces into Afghanistan. Foreign policy presidents need to be successful. second. which would require a justification. It requires merely a shift in definitions and assumptions. The European. unless it ends quickly and successfully and without a disruption of oil supplies. stance. Obama would be forced to take action. The Republicans could not easily attack him. Coming from Obama. and achieve some positive results in relations with foreign governments. He could appear reluctant to his base. Destroying the facilities might take an extended air campaign and might even require the use of special operations units to verify battle damage and complete the mission. after all. He could. who are assumed to be more moderate and less inclined to pursue nuclear weapons. obviously. Defining what it means to almost possess nuclear weapons is nearly a metaphysical discussion. is afraid of Iran and wants the United States to do something more than provide $60 billion-worth of weapons over the next 10 years. destroying Iran's nuclear capability does not involve a one-day raid. First.S. create a massive crisis with Pakistan. of course. so a confrontation with Iran would require a deliberate shift in the U. no one would be in a position to challenge the claim. The Israelis. Many of the Democrats see Iran as a repressive violator of human rights. The idea is to weaken President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and strengthen his enemies. and. The Republicans have portrayed Obama as weak on combating militant Islamism. the one place he could do it would be Iran. decisive to the rest. which adds little to his political position Obama could attempt to force an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. but neither would have much choice should the United States deal with Iran quickly and effectively. given the situation in Afghanistan. Whether or not this is true would be immaterial. but it would be extremely unlikely that such an effort would end well. In the face of this assertion. Bush's. Obama's credibility in making the assertion would be much greater than George W. particularly Saudi Arabia. as are the Chinese. which is unlikely The problem with Israel and the Palestinians is that peace talks have a nasty tendency to end in chaos.
at least for a while. Ryan Jones September 21. which would represent a threat to the region.S. It would also cause the Russians and Chinese to become very thoughtful.S. so these forces would have to be attacked and reduced as well. and. I am arguing the following. nor would it be a short war. But Europe and the Obama Administration have signaled they have absolutely no intention of using force to stop Iran. AN IRAN CONFLICT IS DRAWING CLOSER The Guardian. It can go either way. sending the global economy into a deep recession on soaring oil prices. The US is quietly ratcheting up economic and financial pressure on Iran amid signs that talks about Tehran's suspect nuclear program could resume next month. the Iranian regime would be stronger politically. First. For most Israelis. Simon Tisdall 21 October 2010 fundamentally change its ways. Such an attack would have substantial advantages and very real dangers. calm the Saudis and demonstrate to the Europeans American capability and will. Obama needs to be seen as an effective commander in chief and Iran is the logical target. The other option for Obama is to look for triumph in foreign policy where he has a weak hand. it would be an extended air war lasting an unknown number of months. Like Yugoslavia in 1999. He can craft a re-election campaign blaming the Republicans for gridlock. An attack on Iran would not be an invasion. . Iran could launch a terrorist campaign and attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. The only obvious way to achieve success that would have a positive effect on the U. It could also create a civil war in Iraq. but eviscerated militarily. But neither sanctions nor diplomacy can wholly obviate the dreaded possibility of military confrontation unless something fundamental changes soon at the heart of Iran's fundamentalist regime. and there is no credible threat of force. In an interview with Fox News on Monday. the Republicans. And so the dread juggernaut of direct. withdrawal from Iraq. This would not solve the problem of the rest of Iran's conventional forces.there is little or no evidence so far that Iran's top leadership is willing. to .S. if not to completely remove the threat. Yatom told his audience. strategic position is to attack Iran. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned US President Barack Obama that history will judge his administration largely on 47 Mahmoud Ahmadinejads provocative posturing in Lebanon last week showed Iran is unlikely to change its ways. the risks outweigh the rewards. 2010 Israeli officials are becoming increasingly frustrated by the international communitys footdragging regarding Irans defiant nuclear program. All of these are possible risks. it seems the world has accepted a nuclear-armed Iran as a foregone conclusion.given the domestic gridlock that appears to be in the offing. Speaking at a counter-terrorism conference at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya on Sunday. physical confrontation rolls ever closer. It could change the dynamics of the Middle East and it could be a military failure. This has its advantages and disadvantages. according to STRATFOR's thinking. Obama will be paralyzed on domestic policies by this election.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments out. U. . intelligence could have missed the fact that the Iranians already have a deliverable nuclear weapon. can blame him for the gridlock. at least to delay it for years to come. or can be forced. Sanctions are having almost no impact. charging that he refused to adjust to the electorate's wishes. If the campaign were successful. former Mossad chief Danny Yatom (said) If the modern air forces led by the United States mobilize their capabilities it is possible. a shift to a foreign policy emphasis makes sense. A successful campaign would ease the U. Figure out for yourselves what that means. Ahmadinejad's provocative posturing in Lebanon last week made that plain enough. ISRAEL: NO CHOICE BUT TO ATTACK IRAN Israel Today. and so Israel must retain the right to self-defense. These two developments may be connected. A campaign against Iran would have its risks.
are sufficiently strong to preclude such an outcome. At the same time. To induce quicker and more significant changes. from the Philippines).S. particularly the countrys security organs. But it all has the appearance and feel of a default position. by Eric Walberg September 20. was the ambassador to Afghanistan. or disastrous (Napoleons from Russia). 2010 The U. In exchange for demonstrable Pakistani cooperation. help establish a trade corridor from Pakistan into Central Asia. and ensure that Pakistans adversaries do not use Afghanistans territory to support insurgents in Pakistani Baluchistan. unpunctuated with military disasters. Conrad Black October 21.S. In the region and in the wider war against terrorism.S. almost inadvertent. By Zalmay Khalilzad. The United States should demand that Pakistan shut down all sanctuaries and military support programs for insurgents or else we will carry out operations against those insurgent havens. Nonetheless. To deal with an interruption of our supply lines to Afghanistan. this aggressive approach would require the United States to think through a series of likely Pakistani responses. and the American people will not miss their 65-year total immersion in the world any more than the world will be heartbroken to be less dominated by the Americans. the United States should offer to mediate disputes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. we should present clear. we must stockpile supplies and start bringing in more material through the northern supply routes and via air. it could be much sooner. at the cost of many young American lives and many billions of dollars. with or without Pakistani consent. GET TOUGH ON PAKISTAN New York Times. Pakistan has long played a vital positive part and a troublingly negative one. Sensible. October 19. disorganized (Britains from India and Palestine. Zalmay Khalilzad. and depending on what is in all those secret underground facilities Iran is building. With Pakistani civilian and military leaders meeting with Obama administration officials this week in Washington and with The Times report on Tuesday that Afghan and Taliban leaders are holding direct. significant incentives. is conducting a more or less orderly retreat. Iraq and the United Nations during the Bush administration. the U.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments whether or not Iran went nuclear on his watch. the United States will have to choose between fighting a longer and bloodier war in Afghanistan than is necessary. high-level talks to end the war cutting through this Gordian knot has become more urgent and more difficult than ever before. US ENDGAME IN AFGHANISTAN: THE EVIL OF THREE LESSERS Al-Jazeerah.S DISORGANIZED RETREAT: OUT OF IRAQ. strategic withdrawals can be elegant (de Gaulles from Algeria. Barak said that it would be no more than a year or two before Iran fields a nuclear weapon. Pakistans institutions. not a serious plan of systematically handing over security matters to carefully prepared indigenous forces. Pakistan gives not only sanctuary but also support to the Afghan Taliban Whats more. feckless retreat. 2010 THE AF-PAK THEATER THE END GAME THE U. AFGHANISTAN AND THE REST OF THE WORLD. 2010 48 . of unplanned. Without inducing a change in Pakistans posture. Arguments that such pressure would cause Pakistan to disintegrate are overstated. They are confident that if they continue to frustrate our military and political strategy even actively impede reconciliation between Kabul and Taliban groups willing to make peace pro-Pakistani forces will have the upper hand in Afghanistan after the United States departs. for example. or accepting a major setback in Afghanistan and in the surrounding region. Both are undesirable options. Pakistani military leaders believe that our current surge will be the last push before we begin a face-saving troop drawdown next July. the USSRs from Poland). Washington must offer Islamabad a stark choice between positive incentives and negative consequences. National Review.
will meet the external trade requirements of Chinese-controlled Xinjiang and other regions of Western China.. including Sirajuddin Haqqani. will continue India will have to learn to live with the new Russian-Pakistani 49 . however. leaving vast stretches of Vietnam and Cambodia in ruins. And that means cleaning out major North Vietnamese and Vietcong occupied territories The practical application of the policy was that "attacks are being launched this week to clean out major enemy sanctuaries on the Cambodian-Vietnam border. the proposed line in Afghanistan will meet the requirements of a copper mine which China is developing in the Aynak area in Afghanistan. 2010 China has shown interest in the construction of two railway linesone in Pakistan via the Gilgit-Baltistan region and the other in Afghanistan.Indian role in Afghanistanyes. absolutely. Iran has offered to help do this. with what disastrous effects the world is fully aware. CHANGING FACE OF RUSSIAPAKISTAN TIES The Hindu. if very poor and devastated country. ultimately extending up to Gwadar on the Mekran coast. This is a recipe for unending civil war too horrible to contemplate. Its second option is to let the regional governments take over in stabilizing the current regime. Afghanistan and Pakistan will not fare any better." and "if this enemy effort succeeds... While the railway line through GilgitBaltistan. It holds the fate of this US endgame in its hands. US is finally talking to the Taliban commanders. Cambodia would become a vast enemy staging area and a springboard for attacks on South Vietnam The course he ordered was to "go to the heart of the trouble. Vladimir Radyuhin September 9. That is the policy of the Obama Administration. 2010 NATO will continue to launch lethal attacks inside Pakistan against whichever targets it sees fit and will proffer neither warnings nor apologies. By B Raman September 27th. The U. but for the purpose of ending the war in Vietnam. however inaccurate." Washington indeed expanded the Vietnam War into Cambodia.S. The Chinese policy in Afghanistan has two objectives -to enhance its strategic presence and influence and to checkmate the Indian strategic presence and influence.Nixon claimed: "We take this action not for the purpose of expanding the war into Cambodia. Chinese role in Afghanistanyes. . NATO EXPANDS AFGHAN WAR INTO PAKISTAN Global Research. Council for Foreign Relations President Richard Haass suggests partitioning Afghanistan." In language that has been heard again lately in Washington and Brussels with nothing but the place names changed . would require a revolution in US thinking: mend fences between it and Iran.Forty years ago Obama's predecessor Richard Nixon began his speech announcing the expansion of the Vietnam War into Cambodia He claimed that "enemy sanctuaries" in Cambodia "endanger the lives of Americans who are in Vietnam. Its third option is a lame compromise between the above.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments The US has three choices at this point: the easy one is to just pull out and leave the Taliban to disarm the Western-created warlord militias and to work with the less odious members of the Karzai regime to create a viable regime in a peaceful. The total value of the Chinese investment in the copper mine alone will be almost three times the total value of the Indian investments in all projects in Afghanistan . but. The US support for the Chinese policy will be to the detriment of India. offering to cede control of the south to the Taliban while keeping control of the north. handing over Pashtun areas to the Taliban and arming the other ethnic groups to defend themselves. CHINA: CHECKMATING INDIA IN AFGHANISTAN Indian Defense Review. and soon thereafter departed Southeast Asia in defeat. mediated by Pakistan and the Saudis. anecdotal and self-interested the reports upon which they are based prove to be. 2010 to escalate attacks with Hellfire missiles against whomever it chooses. This. By Rick Rozoff September 28.
Obama had said toward the start of his fall 2009 Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy review that the more pressing U. 50 . PAKISTAN'S FLOODS: BROADER IMPLICATIONS International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). till now. angered by the inept handling of the countrys devastating floods and alarmed by a collapse of the economy. India and Russia had planned to jointly use the Ayni airfield. Panetta said. in its stride . The Obama administration had a "retribution" plan. By Jane Perlez September 28. No. all bets are off. "If that happens. HOW PAKISTAN CAN END THE AFGHAN WAR September 28. Medvedev in Sochi gave the green signal for an inaugural meeting of the Russian-Pakistani Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade and Economic and Scientific-Technological Cooperation in Islamabad this month. but he refused to do much. we wouldn't be having this conversation.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments bonhomie. just as Russia has taken India's entanglement with the U. The bottom line was depressing: This had been a charade . 2010 Stratfor.S. "This is not a threat. both to balance growing Chinese influence in and partnership with Pakistan. just a statement of political fact. Mr. Underscoring Jones's point. Jones told Zardari.S. is pushing for a shake-up of the elected government The military. blocked its launch . GENERALS IN PAKISTAN PUSH FOR A SHAKE-UP OF GOVERNMENT New York Times. chief of the Pakistani army and the most powerful figure in the country . has made clear it is not eager to take over the government. one of the most sensitive and secretive of all military contingencies. They were talking with Zardari. punishing attack inside Pakistan. which India helped to renovate. a dominant military and an intelligence service that sponsored terrorist groups . both Jones and Panetta said. "No one will be able to stop the response and consequences. THE CANCER IS IN PAKISTAN' Washington Post. Kayani had the power to deliver. but Indian presence there looks doubtful now in the context of the emerging Russia-AfghanistanPakistan-Tajikistan axis. a nuclear power with a fragile civilian government. 'WE NEED TO MAKE CLEAR . as it has many times before.The United States was getting nowhere fast with these guys. military officials and politicians said. But this can by no means be taken for granted. who could deliver nothing. interests were really in Pakistan.Kayani would not budge much.Jones said he was alarmed that success in Afghanistan was tied to what the Pakistanis would or would not do. The two countries agreed to set up the joint commission 10 years ago but Moscow has. .If. in Pakistan. God forbid. the Americans met privately with Gen.It is also possible that the political shock induced by the floods and a successful reconstruction effort entailing abundant job opportunities will stimulate new thinking and bring about hitherto-elusive beneficial structural change Fears about Pakistan had been driving President Obama's national security team for more than a year. Should a future attempt be successful. the SUV had blown up in Times Square. Nobody could tell him otherwise. 2010 The Pakistani military." Jones did not give specifics about what he meant. September 2010. preoccupied by a war against militants and reluctant to assume direct responsibility for the economic crisis." Afterward.The Sochi summit also dimmed India's hopes of gaining a strategic foothold in Tajikistan. Obama would be forced to do things that Pakistan would not like. . By Bob Woodward September 29. By George Friedman Pakistan is an American ally which the United States needs. The effects and implications will extend beyond the 12% of the Pakistani population who have been directly affected by the floods and will impinge upon the policy objectives of the US-led coalition engaged in Afghanistan . There might be no way to save the strategic partnership. He had other concerns . 2010 (Floods) have also exposed with yet greater clarity Pakistan's political and institutional shortcomings." the security adviser said. The plan called for bombing about 150 identified terrorist camps in a brutal. Ashfaq Kayani.In another breakthrough for Pakistan.
A regime change in Srinagar is not the priority today. It must have a stable or relatively stable Afghanistan to secure its western frontier. And playing this role would enhance Pakistan's status in the Islamic world. something the United States could benefit from. the United States needs a withdrawal that is not a defeat. Meanwhile.S. We suspect that all sides are moving toward this end. K. His government. under strong pressure to act decisively against the Maoists. this is an ambitious goal. However. Herman Kahn.Most important. The original goal of the war is irrelevant. Kayani will seek his pound of flesh on Kashmir. few measures have been put in place that will enable the government to fulfil its pledge to overcome the problem of left-wing extremism within three years.-Pakistan axis is pivotal for the U. coined the phrase thinking the 51 . The government's invitation to China to invest in the development of J&K indeed underscores our growing sense of awareness. has pledged that 'the problem of left-wing extremism [will] be overcome in the next three years'. Pakistan needs the United States for the same reason. Politicising the crisis will be a most irresponsible thing to do.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments and to contain India. whatever that would look like. would make little difference in the fight against transnational jihad. regional strategies in Central Asia and in a not-toodistant future Mr. and Pakistan can provide the cover for turning a retreat into a negotiated settlement. Therefore. The United States has no strong national interest in how Afghanistan is run so long as it does not support and espouse transnational jihadism. However. INDIA'S UNFOLDING INTIFADA IN KASHMIR The Hindu. forays into Pakistan that are destabilizing the regime. KASHMIR: THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE (INDIA SHOULD GIVE KASHMIR TO PAKISTAN) The Hindu. the heaviest of the backroom hawks of the Pentagon. interests. the Taliban wants to run Afghanistan. the Dantewada massacre was a 'wake-up call' that emphasized the urgency of addressing the Maoist insurgency.S. Such a strategic shift is not without profound political complexity and difficulties. but a defeat could harm U. It needs the United States over the long term to balance against India. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has described the rebellion as 'India's gravest security threat. But it needs its withdrawal to take place in a manner that strengthens its influence rather than weakens it. M. The political reality is that Pakistan has escalated its rhetoric on Kashmir . and the current goal is rather difficult to take seriously. Bhadrakumar September 20. Dr. 2010 The political reality is that Pakistan has escalated its rhetoric on Kashmir. too. Pakistan has every reason to play this role. The United States isn't going to defeat the Taliban. We need to carefully measure the timeline available to normalise the J&K situation. The Intifada unfolding in the Valley has diverse moorings and the killing of innocents may well turn out to be a sideshow in the 20-year deadly game that is far from played out. Vithal Rajan October 9. Even a victory.S. the U. India's long-running Maoist insurgency has increased in intensity in recent months.S. INDIA'S MAOIST INSURGENCY International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) September 2010 The Intifada unfolding in the Valley has diverse moorings. It needs an end to U. 2010 Could Indian withdrawal from Kashmir initiate the Dulles nightmare of a domino effect? Back in the bad old days of the Cold War. According to Chidambaram.
to regain if possible.' Indians are not the leaders of Asia the Chinese are. do Indians need Kashmir? By Indians. high-handedness. they are spread thinly everywhere and new partitions are a geographical impracticality. and that is the real reason for their hegemonic control over the region. Hanging on to the great economic resource drain of Kashmir will only worsen the situation. to help people raise themselves out of poverty. 52 Could Indian withdrawal from Kashmir initiate the Dulles nightmare of a domino effect.' and wish all Indians to go to the devil. because discontent against corrupt. tighten military spending. the same result could be achieved by an undeclared economic war and arms race that would force the communists to scratch themselves out of the tournament. Would not letting Kashmir go give the palm to Pakistan. with all Indian Muslims rising up as one man to demand more partitions? While few Indian Muslims have any reason to thank the Indian state for the non-benign neglect they have received over 60 years. Luckily for all of us. aircraft carriers. The answer clearly is a resounding No'! There are no resources' of any kind from Kashmir. is the answer once again. and the struggling middle classes. The government must cauterise the Kashmir wound. it should not fritter away its resources on nuclear weapons. but that is the end result of poor governance. because the people of the Valley are dependent on our protection? No'. perhaps unjustly. Indians have no such reason to retain control of Kashmir. Should we be there in Kashmir against all odds out of moral obligation. because the people there do not consider Let us ask another hard question. and strictly prevent any more human rights abuses. we mean the ordinary aamjanta of the poor. and non-democratic rule is widespread. not only among Muslims but across a wide section of the poor and middle-classes. India's inveterate enemy? On the contrary.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments unthinkable. India should use its scarce resources where they are most needed. It has taken Great Britain 60 years to realize it is no longer the centre of an empire. India must be proactive in demanding an immediate international settlement of a problem created by Nehru. the supply of which is crucial for our well-being. The American people are dependent on oil from the Middle East. elitist. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF US CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS (NOV 2010) . themselves Indians. modern standards of governance. The mountainous barrier between the Kashmir Valley and India is a better defensive line to guard than the present long untenable frontier of the Line of Control. Would withdrawal increase militancy? Most probably. What will be lost along with Kashmir? An unreal and bloated sense of self-importance. Ronald Reagan had a better idea. If India wishes to be considered a good second to China. and a bankrupt diplomatic policy. Can we use similar hardline approaches to review the Kashmir imbroglio? The first question to ask is. cruelty. it might catastrophically weaken its real enemy Whatever the final shape of the outcome. or Commonwealth Games. would it jeopardise the security of Indians? Not really. Indian rulers have yet to realize they are no longer in charge of the jewel in the crown.' meaning strategies for wiping out the Soviet Union with nukes. If Indian troops are out of Kashmir.
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