October / November 2010

INDUSTRY RESEARCH & ANALYSIS - IRA
Credit Management Group

NBP Industry Newsletter
Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments
MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS
SBP projects 2-3% growth (Page No. …23) IMF: Inflation 13.5%, GDP < 2.75% (Page No. …24) Fiscal deficit reaches 6.3pc in FY10 (Page No. …24) CA deficit widens by 48% (Page No. …24) Trade gap widens (Page No. …24) Bumper wheat crop likely (Page No. …15) Profitability remains up in 2010 (Page No. …09) Two nuclear reactors for Pakistan (Page No. …06) Agreement inked - TAPI gas pipeline (Page No. …06) Pakistan can produce of 7,000 MWs (Page No. …06) Pakistan forced to import over 3 M bales of cotton (Page No. …01) Kick - starting agricultural activity (Page No. …15) Agriculture may need 2 years for recovery (Page No. …14) 310,000 small businesses affected by Floods (Page No. …14) Circular debt update (Page No. …06)

OCT / NOV 2010 ISSUE
Major Developments Textiles (Ginning, Spinning, 1 1 4 6 8 9 11 12 12 14 19 20 22 23 32 33
33 35 39 40 44 48 52

TEXTILES
Pakistan forced to import over 3 M bales of cotton

Weaving, Knits, Woven Apparel)

Oil (Marketing, Refining, Sourcing) Power / Energy (Generation, Distribution) Sugar Cement / Construction / Steel Automotive Telecommunication Other Industries Agriculture Micro Business & SME Financial Services Regulatory Macro Environment Table: Risk-Opportunity Trends Accelerating Global Risks - Special Excerpts
Global Deflation Sovereign & US Debt Crises US Dollar Crises - An Alternative Reserve Currency Strategic Divergence – US vs China / Russia & Others Iran – A new Mid-East war in the making The “AF-Pak” Theater The End Game Economic Implications of US Congressional Elections (Nov 2010) Downgraded: ratings of largest banks (Page No. …20) NPLs estimate - SBP (Page No. …20)

Pakistan will be forced to import over 3 M bales of raw cotton to meet the demands of local textile industry as cotton production will remain around 11.5 M bales against set target of 14 M bales in crop season 2010-11. Officials at the Ministry of Food and Agriculture told that during the current crop season Pakistan expected to achieve the set target due to favourable conditions, but devastating floods have swept away cotton crop on 600,000 hectares. Before the recent floods Pakistan was expecting a bumper crop of 14 M bales compared to 12.8 M bales produced last year. Officials said that Pakistan's textile industry annually requires around 14 M bales of cotton, officials added. Officials said cotton crop had been sown on 3.4 M hectares, out of which 0.6 M hectares had been destroyed and the country lost about 2.5 M bales. Officials warned that the country would face serious shortage of cotton in coming days as more than 20% of the cotton crop had been destroyed by the floods.
(Business Recorder – October 13, 2010) Over 2 M cotton bales destroyed

While expressing his views in connection with the damage to the

Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments
cotton crop as a result of floods, Chairman APTMA Sindh-Balochistan Region said that before the floods Pakistan was expecting a bumper crop of 14 M bales compared to 12.8 M bales produced last year. According to reasonable estimates, the floods have destroyed approximately 2.00 to 2.50 M bales leaving a short fall of about 1.00 M bales in comparison to last year; therefore, the import requirement this year will be additional 1 M bales and total import requirement would be 4 M bales, which will now be procured from international market at world prices. Under the scenario, it can not be expected that the spinning mills will import cotton at international prices in the absence of continuity and assurety of non interfering policy by the Ministry of Textile Industry, as nobody can afford to import raw material at world prices and be denied the rights to sell their product at the international price of cotton yarn in the wake of export duties and quotas. The clear proof of this can be drawn from a comparison of cotton import figures between 2008-09 and 2009-10 when the import figures were 490,000 Metric Tons (2.8 M bales) versus 337,000 Metric Tons (1.98 M bales), respectively. Had curbs on yarn export not been placed during the last year Pakistan would have imported 150,000 MT more of raw cotton at prices, which would have been much cheaper than they are today and consequently availability in the local market would have been much better.
Cotton crisis looming

destroyed by floods in the four provinces and Azad Kashmir, which might compel the country to import many agricultural products including cotton. The total agriculture sector losses are estimated to be about Rs 249 B. Due to flood damage to Pakistan's cotton crop for the 2010-11 season, the officials estimate that the country may import 3.5 to 4 M bales. Major distortion took place in major cottongrowing areas of the central Punjab and southern Sindh. According to a Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report, the highest losses were recorded in Punjab where about 661,637 hectares of land with standing crops destroyed. In Sindh, crops on about 357,372 hectares and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) about 191,020 hectares were damaged.
(Daily Times – September 14, 2010) Cotton output to drop by 18.5%

ginneries as on September 1 stood at 9,95,191 bales, showing a decrease of 22.95% over the corresponding period of the last year when ginneries received 12,91,550 bales. According to the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association's fortnightly report released said that Punjab - the major cotton producing province contributed 4,88,548 bales to take the total to 9,95,191 bales. Sindh's shared in the arrival was 5,06,643 bales.

(Business Recorder – September 4, 2010) Imports of 4 M cotton bales

The cotton output in the country is likely to be lower by 18.5% because of floods, PCGA Chairman told here. "I am expecting loss of 18.5% of cotton due to recent flood in Punjab and Sindh," he said that government had targeted 14.11 M bales but now only 11.5 M bales production is expected. According to him, devastating floods and heavy rains severely damaged the cotton crop in the country. Floodaffected areas in Punjab are estimated at 1.415 M acres (1415.6 thousand acres) while in Sindh it is about 303.2 thousand acres. The total area damaged is calculated at about 1.719M acres (1719.8 thousand acres).
Cotton production declines by 22.95%

Flood damage to Pakistan's key cotton crop has cut deep into the forecast for the 2010/11 season, industry officials said, adding the country is likely to import at least 4 M bales. The monsoon flooding, which started over a month ago, damaged about 524,000 hectares (1.3 M acres), out of the total 3.20 M hectares, under cultivation in the major cotton-growing areas of central Punjab and southern Sindh province. Government and industry officials now estimate output of about 11.6 M bales of 170 kg (374.8 lb) each against the government target of 14 M bales. "We will have to probably import a minimum of 4 M bales to meet our demand this season after floods damaged up to 2.25 M bales," a senior official at the private All Pakistan Textile Mills Association, told Reuters.
(Business Recorder – September 8, 2010) Growth in Textile export

(Business Recorder – September 15, 2010)

(Business Recorder – September 14, 2010)

According to the assessment of the United Nations, over 1.31 M hectares of the cultivated area has been

Cotton production has declined by 22.95% as the arrival recorded at

The country's textile export has posted a healthy growth of 23% during the 1st 2 months of the FY 2010-11 mainly due to high unit price in the world market. 02

Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments
According to statistics released by Federal Statistics Bureau, the country's overall textile export have reached $1.975 B mark during the first two months (July-August) of the CFY as compared to $1.601 B exports during the same period of the last FY, depicting an increase of 23.34% or $370 M.
(Business Recorder – September 23, 2010) Worlds cotton output, consumption

coming Christmas and New Year events in the West. "Exporters always book orders at least three months ahead of the next season, and if the raw commodity price is higher or short on the local market then striking deals with global buyers becomes difficult," Value-added Textile Forum Co-ordinator said.
(Business Recorder – October 20, 2010) Duty on PTA cut to 3%

Representatives of different valueadded organizations, while talking said on that the value added textile industry is crippled owing to frequent load shedding, high electricity and gas tariff, multiple duties and taxes, resulting in high cost of doing business in Pakistan, as compared to the neighbouring states. Chairman said that end product cost has increased manifolds, which is no more acceptable to USA and Europe. The prices of the corresponding period last year, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said. The surge in export numbers can be attributed to higher global demand and increased per unit price of Pakistani textile products. Despite surge in the amount realised, the quantity exported of almost all the products under the category witnessed decline. According to the data, raw cotton exports declined to $7.202 M during July-September against $40.458 M in the corresponding period last year, thereby, witnessing a decline of 82.2%. Contrary to this, cotton yarn exports witnessed growth. The cotton yarn exports reached up to $353.617 M, recording 2.08% growth against the previous year’s exports of $346.402 M. During the period under review, goods such as cotton cloth, knitwear and bedwear witnessed a surge of 22.88%, 15.79% and 14.73%, respectively. The exports of cotton cloth, which stood at $432.974 M, increased to $532.0.35 M, while that of cotton carded or combed dropped to $141,000 from $5.37 M. 03

World cotton production and consumption are forecast to balance around 25.1 M tons in 2010/11 due to 15% rebound in production and 2% increase in mill use, a statement of the International Cotton Advisory Committee said. The higher production in the USA and a surplus of five Mbales in India would compensate for the damage cause to cotton crop in Pakistan. It would also facilitate Pakistani spinners to cover the shortage through imports, it said. Beginning stocks will account for only 27% of the world’s supply in 2010/11, down from 35% in the previous season. The decline in stocks as a percent of supply suggests that cotton prices in 2010/11 will remain unusually susceptible to changes in crop prospects, the statement added.
(The News – September 3, 2010) $1 B foreign orders may be lost

The government has cut customs duty on the import of pure terephthalic acid, a raw material used in the production of polyester fibre, to 3% from 7%. On the contrary, customs duty on polyethylene terephthalate for bottle resin has been increased from 7.5 to 9%. This was announced in a notification issued by the Federal Board of Revenue. In another major decision, the FBR withdrew all duty concessions on the import of 12 types of raw material and different types of yarn for the textile industry. Elaborating, an FBR official said the raw material from which concessions have been removed include textured yarn (nylon), polyester and other types of yarn, mixed staple fibre, yarn made from mixed wool and other products.
(The Express Tribune – October 13, 2010) Garments export likely to come down in 2010-11

The country is likely to lose at least a billion dollars of foreign orders next summer because of the acute shortage of cotton yarn on the local market, manufacturers-cum-exporters of value-added textile sector said. Expressing fear, they said the raw commodity's scarcity could curb the value-added textile sector from meeting the export deadline for the

Due to high prices of end product, Pakistan value-added textile export did not seem competitive in Europe as well United States, resultantly export of garments is likely to come down from $3.2 B to $3 B during 2010-11.

Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments
Knitwear and bedwear exports surged from $471.747 M and $420.532 M to $546.247 M and $482.461 M, respectively. Shipments of towel swelled up by 12.12% and that of tents, canvas and tarpaulin dropped by 38.67%. Readymade apparels showed escalation of 38.83%, overseas sales of made-up articles rose by 26.72% and other textile materials exports witnessed a surge of 84.27% during the period under review.
(The News – October 20, 2010)

increased following a decline in its local production by a huge amount of 700 to 800 tons per day. The prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are stable in the market despite a surge of Rs.9,360 per ton in its rate by a local producer OGDCL. This was stated by the chairman of FPCCI Standing Committee on LPG and All Pakistan LPG Distributors Association Chief in a press release.
(The Nation – September 5, 2010) Oil import bill increases

(The Nation – September 29, 2010) Oil sales down in August

products in the month of August this year as against $7.35 M of the corresponding month of 2009.

OIL
20% decline in Refinery output

The country's refinery production has declined by 28% in August 2010 as compared to previous month mainly due to production stoppage at Parco after floods devastated the transportation network in the surrounding region. According to provisional figures, the refinery production in the 1st 2 months of FY11 witnessed a decline of 18% as compared to the same period of previous FY. Reviewing refineries individually, Parco witnessed its market share falling drastically to 29% in the two months of FY11 from 42% after production closure in August 2010. PRL and BYCO too witnessed their shares deteriorating to 20% (from 21%) and 3% (from 8%) respectively during this period. On the other hand, NRL remained the key gainer witnessing its market share surging to 24% (from 13%) in the two months of FY11.
(Business Recorder – September 16, 2010) Dependency on imported LPG increases

The country’s oil import bill for the 1st 2 months (July-August) of the FY 20010-11 has increased by 25.28%, Federal Bureau of Statistics reported. Total oil imports, including crude and petroleum products, amounted to $1.9 B during July-September period of the prevalent FY from $1.52 B in the same period last year. On the contrary, the petroleum products imports stood at $933.1 M as against $994.7 M, showing a decline of 6.20% YoY in growth over the same period of FY10. Showing the similar trend, the quantum of the petroleum crude products imported into the country during the period under review reached the level of $950 M when compared to $509 M in Jul-Aug FY10. In addition, this group showed 86.90% YoY raise in growth. According to official figures released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics, in August 2010 alone, the petroleum group’s imports swelled by 16.67 per cent on month-on-month basis. Likewise the entire imports in this broad category up by 7.19%. The FBS data revealed that Pakistan spent $858 M on the import of oil

The oil sales in local market have declined by 24% to 1.418 M tons during the month of August 2010. The decrease in sales of Furnace Oil (FO) and High Speed Diesel (HSD) were amongst the major causes for the overall decline, analysts said. The sales of HSD have declined by 34% followed by FO sales, which were down 21%, an analyst at JS Global Capital said. The oil sales during the 1st 2 months of FY11 stood at 3.285 M tons, down 8% on yearly basis. PSO sales during this period dipped by 12% to 2.2 M tons mainly due to its larger presence in the flood affected areas compared to growths of 17% and 14% witnessed in the sales of APL and SHELL, respectively. As a result, PSO lost its market share by 322bps to 67.2%. Meanwhile APL and SHELL improved their shares to 6.1% (up 130bps) and 14.8% (up 277bps), respectively.
(Business Recorder – September 9, 2010) OGDCL to start drilling in Zin Block

Pakistan’s security forces have finally given clearance to the OGDCL to start drilling in one of the most prospective, but insurgency-hit parts of Balochistan, top company officials said. OGDCL will initiate drilling of the first well in Zin Block of Dera Bugti district, to check the size and quality of gas reservoir more than six years after a survey suggested presence of hydrocarbon reserves there, they said. 04

The dependency on the imported Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) has

Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments
“Work heads off later this month or in the first week of November,” one of the officials said requesting anonymity. “Some evaluation of the reserve needs to be carried out, but seismic and geological studies are already with us.” The largest petroleum producer has engaged six platoons, 216 soldiers of the Frontier Constabulary for security. “OGDCL will pay for their service and the company has even bought them equipment.”
(The News – October 12, 2010) OGDCL seen borrowing next year 21 gas fields - Ogra raises wellhead prices

Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority has raised the wellhead prices of around 21 gas producing fields due to variation in exchange rate and global oil prices effective from JulyDecember 2010. Ogra official said that impact of increase in recent well head gas prices will also be reflected in consumer prices effective from January 1, 2011. Ogra has revised wellhead gas prices of 32 gas fields and there has been made no change in prices of some gas fields. The government sets, through Ogra, the wellhead price and then gas is provided to the gas distribution companies, like SNGPL and Sui SSGC for sales to industrial, commercial and domestic consumers.
(Business Recorder – October 10, 2010) Oil consumption falls

B during the first quarter of the CFY from $2.188 B in the corresponding quarter FY10, showing an increase of 9.33%, the Federal Bureau of Statistics said. The import of petroleum products came down by 10.79% to $1.295 B during the period under review from $1.452 B in July-September 2009. The imports of crude petroleum, however, registered a significant increase of 49.08% to $1.096 B from $735 M. The y-o-y imports in September fell sharply by 25.65% to $509.43 M against $685.2 M during the same month last year.

Once Pakistan’s most cash rich company, OGDCL now has only Rs.6 B in liquid reserves, which will force it to borrow from banks in the first half of 2011, a top company official said. The company’s assets that can be readily converted into cash have come down sharply from around Rs.19 B in June 2010 after payments of deferred taxes and dividends, said the official, requesting anonymity. “We can avoid banks in remaining months of this fiscal (Jul/Jun 2010/11) only if inter-corporate circular debt falls,” he said. “But I don’t see that happening anytime soon.” OGDCL awaits payment of over Rs.80 B by 5 refineries and the 2 gas utilities. The company has annual cash flow of Rs.93 B from sale of oil and gas and its strong balance sheet has helped it stay away from banks during last five years. The state-run petroleum giant will have to raise between $400 and $500 M from banks in fiscal 2011/12, he said. “Loan proposals and negotiations for credit lines will start as early as December 2010.”
(The News – October 8, 2010)

(The News – October 20, 2010) Deregulation of Oil prices

The oil consumption in the country has declined to 4.7 M tons during the first quarter of FY11, 7% lower than the same quarter last year. The oil consumption continued to post weak data following the flash floods as demand dipped 6% in September 2010 as compared to the same month last year. Likewise, oil sales were 2% lower from the previous month as the seasonal Ramadan effect kicked in as well. Analysts said that the shutdown of some power plants due to flood inundation and improved hydel generation ability proved demand dampener for furnace oil (FO), while retarded agricultural activity dragged down diesel sales. Hence, consumption in the 1st Q of FY11 was down 7% on y-o-y basis.
(Business Recorder – October 8, 2010) Oil import bill up

The ECC of the Cabinet has approved, in principle, de-regulation of oil prices and Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM). The ECC has also approved to fix margins of oil marketing companies (OMCs) and dealers which will result in reduction of oil prices by 35 paisa per litre if calculated based on price of October, an official of Petroleum Ministry said. The ECC has also directed Petroleum Ministry to seek ratification of decision from the Cabinet before its implementation. "IFEM will fall in controlled-deregulation because the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) will notify it from one destination to other destination but so far as prices of petroleum products are concerned, refineries and OMCs will determine the prices on monthly basis whereas Ogra will monitor it," the official said, adding that imported price will be benchmark for prices and refineries as well, as OMCs will not be allowed to charge over set 'bench mark price' to protect consumers interests. He said that in new oil 05

The oil import bill increased to $2.392

The planned pipeline would have initial capacity for 33 billion cubic metres a year and would run for nearly 2. "China “The circular debt of the petroleum ministry has soared to Rs 235 billion. in an exclusive interview published in monthly Energy Update.700 MW of electricity will be generated from Thar coal with the existing number of projects and current pace of development by 2015. 2010) Circular debt update China on gave its firmest government confirmation yet of plans to build two new nuclear reactors for Pakistan.R.907bpd in the corresponding quarter in FY10. Her comments also suggested Beijing may see no need to seek approval for the two new Chashma reactors from the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). one Australian firm. and invited the IAEA to exercise safeguards and oversight of this project. However. an international council of governments.” says an official.250 miles). This was said by official of the Bradford Power (Pvt) Ltd while talking to the Minister for Water and Power. one joint venture with Engro. slightly up by only 0. especially the refineries which are now running at 60 percent of their capacity. if the infrastructure is completed on priority basis and international donors like World Bank and ADB are actively persuaded by the government. (Business Recorder – September 22.188 barrel per day (bpd) in the 1st Q of FY11. a Pakistani official said.000 MWs The country's oil production stood at 64.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments pricing formula.000 km (1. The gas production. as compared to 63. "This project is based on an agreement signed between the two countries in 2003 about co-operation in the nuclear power field. some of whose members have voiced qualms about the deal. then the power generation can be increased to 7000 MW. undermining efforts of the entities working in the oil sector. P. China and Monteva Holding Inc. 2010) Bradford Power wants to set up wind power project A foreign consortium company of Canada and China M/s Bradford Power has shown interest to set up a wind power project of 200 MW in Pakistan and estimated investment of $500 M.4% on y-o-y basis. ." said he added.3% on y-o-y basis to 4.037bcfd in this quarter against 3. including 735 km across Afghanistan and another 800 km through Pakistan.TAPI gas pipeline Turkmenistan. and is courting investors from the West. China and other Asian countries.946mmcfd in the same quarter last year. The former Soviet state is looking to diversify energy sales from its traditional market. but a Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said she did not know about talks over a bigger reactor deal. one UAE Company and a joint venture between Sindh and federal government for coal gasification are at various stages of initial work and the response from is very positive and they are willing to undertake coalbased projects in Thar and other coalfields of Sindh.188 bpd per day Oil production has already notified the International Atomic Energy Agency about the relevant details. (Daily Times – September 23. (Business Recorder – October 19. Canada for setting up wind power projects in Pakistan as 06 Turkmenistan. the government will have to take some concrete steps to resolve the issue once and for all. He said that there are projections that at least 2. 2010) Agreement inked . The spokeswoman said China plans to help Pakistan expand its Chashma nuclear energy complex in Punjab by building two reactors in addition to one already operating and another nearing completion. Afghanistan. the role of Ogra was more effective. (Daily Times – October 8. He pointed out that one British company Oracle. POWER / ENERGY Two nuclear reactors for Pakistan (The Express Tribune – September 21. Russia. is keen to revive plans to build the Tapi pipeline through Afghanistan to the markets of Pakistan and India. holder of the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves. Pakistan and India signed the framework of an agreement to construct a gigantic pipeline pumping natural gas to South Asia.000 MW from coal based power generation projects by 2015 if the government aggressively pursues investors. 2010) Pakistan can produce as much as 7. however. (Business Recorder – October 09. 2010) Pakistan can produce of 7. The official informed the Minister that the Bradford Power (Pvt) Ltd is a special purpose company established by A-Power. increased by 2. citing plans to build the No 3 and No 4 reactors of about 300 megawatts each at Chashma." he told a regular news conference. 2010) 64. said Secretary Coal and Energy Sindh. A delegation of the Bradford called on him.

generators and associated OMV has taken over Petronas International Corporation’s rights to explore and produce gas in Pakistan. Seismic data acquisition work has been planed to delineate a drillable structure at the field. it has learnt. “The law ministry interpreted the project on the basis of partial information as a part of the summary did not reach it.7. The Vienna-based oil and gas giant currently produces around 14. 2010) Further delay in LNG project The Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) has raised $280 M from International Finance Corporation. Neelum Jhelum Hydro-electric Project With gas and electricity shortfalls on the rise.000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) a day by 2014. According to financial results.08bn profit after tax (Business Recorder – September 4. 2010) OGDCL to drill 11 wells in Balochistan on June 30. smaller local investors will sign sale and purchase agreements with Discos for 25 years.75 per share. Under the new policy likely to be formally approved by the ECC of the cabinet at its next meeting. 2010 and announced a final cash dividend of Rs. official sources told. 2010) KESC raises $280 M for 560 MW power plant transformers of the project. 2010) Kot Addu Power Company (KAPCO) has posted a record profit after tax (PAT) of Rs 5.2. from July 2011 to March 2012 period. OGDCL has also made preparation to start drilling of an exploratory well in Zin area of District Dera Bugti as well. 2010) Take over by OMV The Oil and Gas Development Company Limited has planned to drill 11 development wells in Uch Gas field area of Balochistan. (Dawn – September 24.000 BOE a day in Pakistan and 318. Asian Development Bank and local lenders to set up 560 MW Combined Cycle Power Plant . 2010) The Islamic Development Bank (IDB) has reportedly agreed to extend $220 M for 969 MW Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project (NJHEP) in addition to $138 M which has already been leased.000 BOE worldwide. According to sources. The ministry was asked to advise if the project should be signed in view of the Supreme Court judgment on the matter. (Business Recorder – September 8. Purchase of power from small producers (Business Recorder – September 28. a multi-billion-dollar project for import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) for 20 years through a consortium of European companies is facing ‘procedural’ problems. sources added. "We have been successful in raising $280 M in debt for this critical project through IFC. KAPCO posts Rs 5. The EPS of the company stood at Rs 5. Sources said that IDB is leasing $138 M for some of the civil work components of the Neelum Jhelum Hydroelectric Project (NJHEP). An IDB appraisal mission is in Islamabad to discuss modalities of further financing for the project. Two wells are already being drilled while drilling of planned wells will start during CFY.000 MW. 07 (Business Recorder – September 8.089 B for the year ending . the petroleum ministry did not send the complete record of the project to the law ministry while seeking its advice on a deal finalised with the consortium comprising 4Gas and GDF Suez. the government has decided to allow distribution companies (Discos) of Wapda to enter into direct power purchase contracts with small independent power producers (SIPPs) of up to 50MW capacity under a crash programme.730 B during the period under review. The purchase will increase OMV’s gas production in Pakistan to around 25. Procurement and Construction (EPC) contractor for a combined total of $215 M. in phases." KESC said in the letter (written to Ministry of Water and Power on August 27. 2010) With short-term power deficit estimated at 5. 2010) adding that the project is expected to come online.” an official said. The Bank has now offered lease financing of $220 M for turbines. ADB and a syndicate of local lenders. (Daily Times – September 3. The company has completed geological mapping and seismic data acquisition work in Kalchas Block of Balochistan Province.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments independent power producer and the said project will be completed in two years in Sindh province. the profit before tax surged to Rs. (Dawn – September 27. A formal request had already been submitted to IDB and Economic Affairs Division. It said that to-date 3 L/Cs have been posted to the Engineering. OMV said in a press release.78.

This was disclosed by Chief Minister Sindh during a press briefing at the CM House. He also expressed his wishes to facilitate the contacts between the regulatory institutions of the two main markets in Condense Natural Gas (CNG). He said that sugar price in the international market rose by 18%. “The declaration of the region as a special economic zone and area of strategic importance has also been approved. however. 2010) Deputy Chairman Planning Commission. the priority would be on improving efficiency rather than on increasing tariffs. The decision to this effect was taken by the ECC meeting presided over by Finance Minister.” said the chief minister. TCP A feasibility study of Thar coal reserves has been completed. the government would not charge levies. 2010) SUGAR Withdrawal of 25% regulatory duty (The Express Tribune – October 6. learn to provide uninterrupted services and learn to pay for services. (Daily Times – October 12.26 M tons more sugar will arrive from India by next month. Thar coalfields would be declared a project of national security. was reluctant to share by how much the tariff would actually be increased. “Under the federal government’s incentive package. 2010) Generate 5000 MWs for 50 years The ECC of the Cabinet decided to withdraw 25% regulatory duty on import of raw sugar and allowed private sector to import the commodity. Mehar and Daphro exploration licences and the Mehar and Mubarak development and production leases. The total price difference has been worked out in the range of Rs. has entered a joint venture with Wah Industries Ltd.6 M tons stock of sugar is available with the TCP against 1. Argentina willing to assist energy sector. Ambassador of Argentina in Pakistan has been making efforts to persuade the Argentinean Company IMPSA Corporation to participate in the several hydro projects that the government of Pakistan has planned to initiate.000 megawatts of electricity over the next 50 years. and “we expect that the new company INFLEX-WAH would soon commence production of CNG cylinders in Pakistan to supply the internal and regional markets”.” (Business Recorder – September 22.” he said.2 b and the government has to increase the prices by at least 28 to 30% within a year if it again fails to turn around the lossmaking power distribution companies.” “A 1% tariff increase amounts to approximately Rs. (The Express Tribune – September 22. “The Economic Coordination Committee has granted an incentive package to attract foreign investors to Thar. unveiled the broader contours for overhauling the bleeding The Trading Corporation of Pakistan has established two LCs worth $243 M for import of 320. “Change the culture.180 B primarily from consumers. He. confirming that two billion tons of coal reserves are available in Block II alone – a quantity enough to generate 5.” said a key official of the finance ministry who deals with public sector enterprises. Argentine Ambassador participated as guest speaker in the inauguration session of the Exhibition/Fuelling Pakistan 2010 at Karachi Expo Centre. (The Express Tribune – October 20.2 M tons of sugar shortfall is expected next year. hinting at recovering the remaining Rs. holding a “zero accidents” record.1 M tons for the same period of last year and 1. 2010) Argentina expressed its interest to play the role to improve petroleum and power sector of Pakistan particularly Hydroelectricity and Gas Transportation sector.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments The agreement includes the Mubarak. He also said that INFLEX.210-225 B for the CFY. He said currently 0.” he said.30 B subsidy. he explained that the government would guarantee an internal rate of return of 20% to firms which will achieve financial close by 2015 and investors will be exempt from paying customs duties on the import of coal mining and construction machinery for a period of 30 years.6. “The (power sector) business plan needs to be consistent with the allocated Rs. Briefing media after the meeting. the man leading the reforms. including federal excise duty and withholding tax. for the first 30 years in a bid to attract investors. According to the press release issued by the Argentine Embassy. 2010) Surge in Electricity Prices from next month Giving details about the incentives.000 tons of white 08 .” As part of the package. Secretary Finance said that 1. “This time.

000 tons of refined sugar to cope with an anticipated shortfall following a decline in domestic production.000 tons of sugar before Ramazan in 2009.000 tons ethanol annually and after the zero-rated regime is implemented the exports could even reach 300. which account for more than 32% of total dispatches. 2010) Loss of Rs. amid volumetric growth of 9% YoY in total dispatches during the year.290Rs. Exports. (Daily Times – October 09. the local cement companies witnessed well net margins.300 per bag.” he said. a 100% increase. The ECC of the cabinet had directed the TCP on February 3.000 tons was signed with Meshe International.” the AGP concludes in the investigation. they added.15-25 per bag to Rs.325 per 50-kg for last few months. (Daily Times – October 19. rupee depreciation of 7% YoY alongside rise in power tariff and gas prices kept overall cost under check”. of 250.72 per kg from Rs.000 tons sugar.36. said the analyst. The delay in import pushed sugar prices to Rs. 2010 for import of 320.000 tons of white refined sugar. a brokerage house said. Cement prices had remained around Rs. “Non-compliance with (government) directives indicated that undue favour was extended to the sugar cartel.” Cement demand would The office of the Auditor General of Pakistan has established that the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP). local agent of Scuden Middle East Dubai. as average cement prices tumbled during FY10 by 18% yearon-year – topline of the sector accordingly recorded a decline of 14% YoY.2 M tons from 3.” said an analyst at Topline Securities. (Business Recorder . Sources told that with the opening of two LCs it is expected that first shipment of sugar would reach Pakistan in mid-September. tasked with ensuring the availability of sugar in the market. was finalised with Shanig Associates Karachi.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments refined sugar.265-275 during the next few months. (The Express Tribune – October 14. 2009 to import 200. “Prices may fall further by Rs. The other contract for 70. TCP had finalised two deals of sugar import at $724. superior interest coverage while the sector also continued to benefit from superior quality and brand image (reflected by higher retention prices realised by the company compared to the sector). The market leader Lucky Cement was also better off in terms profitability (13% net margin) while better performers in the north included FCCL and DGKC.000 tons annually.September 1. “On the cost front. 2010) Fall in Cement prices Cement manufacturers have reduced prices by Rs. “This will give a boost to the sugar industry and the production at the distilleries will be enhanced. delayed a decision on the import of 200. remain low for next few months until reconstruction activities picked up.25-35 in the north region because floods have brought the demand down. Analyst added that manufacturers might have to reduce the prices further because demand for cement has fallen since floods hit the nation. 2010) Major gainers of Pak-EU trade CEMENT / CONSTRUCTION / STEEL Profitability remains up in 2010 Amid adverse economic conditions the overall cement sector performance was sluggish during FY (FY) 2010 – cement companies continued to perform well in terms of better profitability and higher interest coverage.4. Local sales in the first two months of the fiscal year fell by 15% to 3.7 B – Delay in Sugar import will not only give a boost to the textile and leather sectors but the sugar mills would be the major gainers too as the proposed programme will allow duty free exports of ethanol to the EU countries.325 per bag have started to cool down and are currently hovering around Rs. 2010) However lower prices shrank revenues. “Cement prices after peaking at Rs.5 per ton with two different suppliers on August 2. Ethanol is the key greenback earner for the sugar mills and the country has been exporting an average of 250. One deal. Analyst said that despite worse economic conditions around the globe. local agents of Agrocorp International of Singapore. declined by 09 The new plan of trade assistance by the European Union (EU) to Pakistan . A high official of Attock Cement confirmed that the price of the commodity has fallen by about 15%. causing a crisis leading to a countrywide increase in prices and shortfall in supply.8 M tons in the same period last year. in this regard Attock Cement realised highest net margin. Commerce Secretary said that the EU has unilaterally given the trade assistance programme to Pakistan and the 30% duties on export of ethanol from Pakistan has been withdrawn.

analysts eyeing a potential decline of 4% in the industry’s volumes in FY11. albeit slowly. again. analysts reckon. 2010) Pakistan’s Cement exports to suffer Analyst said that Lucky’ export concentration to the Far Eastern nations is 15% of exports while 5% DG Khan Cement exports are dispatched to Sri Lanka. (Daily Times – October 3. 2010) DGK Cement profit declines Cement prices increased The after-tax profit of D G Khan Cement in the year ended June 30. on a monthly basis. (The News – September 7.12. (Business Recorder – September 30. 358. unexplored potential in countries like Sri Lanka and Myanmar is expected to be the future growth avenue for local cement companies. down 22% on yearly basis and the largest yearly decline since April 2001. 2010) Housing Finance to GDP ratio International Development Association.581 M earned in FY09. down 16% on yearly basis in the 1Q owing to factors ranging from the recent flash floods to poor law and order situation.776.55 per bag in two months which. Pakistan has about 8. Analysts expect demand to pick up post 1HFY11.038 B recorded in FY09. arriving at 2 M tons. Pakistan cement exports could face pressure in short-term. (Business Recorder – October 20. However. A cement trader. sales were down 16% as reduced business activity in the month of Ramazan also took its toll. another cement trader said that cement manufacturers are operating at 20% capacity and any increase in cement prices reflects collusive behaviour. with reversal in the current trend gathering pace from FY12 and beyond as reconstruction activities take shape.63 a year back. the local sales have witnessed a bruising start to FY11.8 M vehicles on the road. sales were down seven percent. Despite the restoration of pricing consensus among the cement manufacturers. The cost of sales increased to Rs. The board of directors of the company in its meeting declared that the company's EPS declined to Re. dispatches for 1QFY11 stood at 6. Cement manufacturers hope that their sales will increase by 20% when reconstruction gets underway. The project consists of three components: rehabilitating 514-km of highways. owing to passive domestic demand following the recent flash floods. 525. Similarly.0. (Daily Times – October 6. In this regard." he said. Pakistan has one of the lowest ratios 10 . due to Ramazan. Local cement exporters are likely to substitute African markets with Far Eastern markets.18.403 M in FY10 against Rs. largely in line with its 10-year average decline of 12%.022 M as compared to Rs. 13. 18% lower from the corresponding period last year. "Current trend of cement prices may have a negative impact on the government's efforts to build houses for flood affectees. 2010 (FY10) declined to Rs 233. According to the financial results the company's net sales declined to Rs.275 B in FY10 against Rs.1. The company's profit before taxation declined to Rs. industry sources told.16. may compel the Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) to intervene.569 B against Rs. 2010) Lowest Cement Exports since Dec 08 Cement sales in September 2010 hit a 21-month low.900 M earned in FY09. resurfacing 342-km of highways.9 M tons. 2010) IDA approves $130 M credit Cement manufacturers have raised cement prices by Rs. has approved a credit worth $130 M in additional financing for the Pakistan Highway Rehabilitation Project to continue revitalising and modernising Pakistan's highway system.6 M tones in July and August compared with 2 M tons in these two months of last year. (Business Recorder – September 18. Hence.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments 20% to 1. 2010) Common External Tariff on import of cement in East Africa is likely to be increased from 25% to 35% that may hurt country’s export.358 M. said that quota fixation for every district and underutilization of capacity are the main reasons for the fresh bullish trend in cement prices. and reconstructing 128-km of damaged roads that provide vital access to remote and disaster-prone communities. On a monthly basis. growing at about 10% annually projected to increase to over 70 M by 2030. However. They said that Saudi cement exports are coming to the forefront (following a partial cement export ban removal).72 in the period under review against Rs.

224 units in July. The report said that in contrast to the impressive growth in the banking sector. however. The sales during July-September period increased to 33. has plunged to 40. prices of all Corolla variants will be increased by Rs 25.130 units in the same period of last fiscal. Housing loans are normally provided to high-income groups and the share of private financial institutions is quite low. said an authorized dealer. Hero bike sales improved to 3. According to the sources of the Ministry of Water and Power. “Both the companies. “This is despite the fact that the outgoing quarter remained turbulent for manufacturing concerns as both security issues and flood devastation 11 The government has released an amount of Rs. the project will also contribute 18 B units of electricity per annum to the national grid. Pak Suzuki Motors Co Ltd and Honda Atlas Car Pakistan Ltd – have also decided to increase prices from Rs 8. Indus Motor Company.000 while Altis price will be increased by Rs 35. who had recently visited the Diamer Bhasha Dam site.955 units from 2.700 M for the acquisition of land for the mega Diamer Bhasha Dam project as the first installment. gave appreciation of yen against rupee as a reason for this increase in prices.acquisition of Bhasha Dam WAPDA chairman. Loans for residential housing and construction amount to less than 1% of the GDP in Pakistan. (The Express Tribune – October 12. sources added.609 units in the same period last fiscal. has marginally increase its car prices with immediate effect.” (Business Recorder .561 units in July but its overall sale in July-August rose to 2.500 MWs of lowcost electricity.176 units from 70.000 per unit on all models of Honda Civic and Rs 35. Car sales grew by 6% to 11. Yamaha sales slightly plunged to 9. In addition to providing water for agriculture. It would store 8. This is in stark contrast to India where the same ratio is seven per cent.000 on different Suzuki models.000.155 units in August 2010 from 45.663 units in September. while Honda has increased prices by Rs 30. However. 2010) Sale of Japanese bikes falls AUTOMOTIVE Car prices increased Due to the unprecedented strengthening of the Yen which is at a 15 year high against major currencies. .1 M-acre feet (MAF) of water and generate 4. data showed. In sharp contrast Habib motorcycle sales in August 2010 rose to 1. sale of Honda bike.e. Similarly. he added. The housing finance to GDP ratio is between 50 & 70% in developed countries.408 units from 1.September 16/Daily Times – September 19.000 of Honda City effective from September 18”. 2010) According to figures released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association. 2010) Cars sale surges by 10pc The sales of cars and light commercial vehicles in the country have increased by 10% during the 1st Q of CFY. i.659 units in July. 2010) Fund released .496 units against 30. the amount has been handed over to deputy commissioner Diamer so as to start the land acquisition process. The ground breaking of WAPDA offices and colonies is expected next month.394 units from 1. The report said that housing finance is out of the reach of low-income groups and housing finance loans are extremely expensive. which enjoys big share in rural areas.184 units in July. according to a World Bank report on housing finance for low-income groups in South Asia.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments of housing finance to gross domestic product (GDP) in the world. according to the data released by Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association. thus making the imported CKD and even local parts more costly as most of the raw materials are also imported.021 units in July. (Dawn – September 22.501 units in August 2010 from 3.588 units from 10. Suzuki motorcycle sale to 1.000 to Rs 15. the overall sale in JulyAugust 2010-11 had swelled to 85. Pakistan’s housing finance to GDP ratio is as dismal as some of the most underdeveloped countries in the world.519 units in the same period last year. said that dam would be the largest project in the country’s history. (Daily Times – October 15.

2010) E-payments . 2010) Telenor Easypaisa transaction crosses Rs. with its various m-banking services recorded over 6 M transactions carried under its brand “EasyPaisa” by the end of first year. Import of mobile phones has already outnumbered the country's total import of cellular phones because they are low-priced with high communication features. 2010) Electronic payments continued to show a rising trend as both the number and value of such transactions increased in the fourth quarter (AprilJune) of the last 2009-10 FY (FY10). Qubee committed to provide the customers amazingly reliable services. it implies an influx of US dollars into the country while for Wateen Telecom it shows shareholders' confidence in the company and its management while supporting the business plan.show rising trend Abu Dhabi Group has injected over Rs 2. CEO.425 M in July this year.2 B tons economically mineable reserves by deploying a cutting edge technology at Rico Diq.8 trillion. Chagai. gold mine with 2. The country's import of mobile phones stood at $39.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments restricted their business operations. (Business Recorder – October 13.4% increase in number and 8. (The Nation – October 8. (Daily Times – October 15. 2010) 12 .” said an analyst at the Topline Securities. Qubee said that Qubee has been actively involved in technology up-gradation since its launch in Pakistan. the subsidiary of Norwegian telecom giant. according to official statistics. According to SBP’s 4th Quarterly Report on Retail E-Payments and Paper Based Instruments released. Telenor Pakistan. depicting an increase of $19. is the newest entrant in the WiMAX market of Pakistan with an initial investment of more than $70 M and a commitment to bring high speed fast. launched in Karachi early this year. (Business Recorder – September 29.1 B in the Wateen Telecom Limited during past few weeks which is likely to be welcomed warmly by the general public and stock exchanges of Pakistan. Balochistan will get 25% profit plus royalty and taxes to federal and provincial governments. 2010) TELECOMMUNICATION Mobile phone import up Import of mobile phones mounted by 100% during July this year. The 1300cc market leader Indus Motor posted highest sales growth of 13% in the outgoing quarter. Qubee.2 B foreign direct investment over four years.1 B Qubee invests $70m in broadband sector Qubee is receiving excellent response from its customers in Lahore and twin cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi where the service has been launched recently. the mobile banking in Pakistan has gained tremendous popularity among customers with rapid pace as colossal amount of Rs 10 B was transacted through a single cellular operator in a year. 2010) Rs 4. "We have submitted a feasibility study to Balochistan government and having talks with Provincial government to conclude an agreement which will result in take-off for the project in next four years. dealers said. Balochistan as a joint venture with Government of Balochistan with initial $3.7% increase in value. Company sources revealed the number of carried transactions has been increasing over a period of time that has reached 1 M in a single month with transacted amount crossed Rs. For Pakistan.591 M in the same period of last fiscal year 2009.016 M in July 2010 as compared to $19. 2010) Injection of over Rs 2. (The News – October 13.4 M and Tethyan Copper Company Pakistan plans to operate a world class copper. B OTHER INDUSTRIES 'Rico Diq project to fetch $3. as compared to 8.2% increase in value in the previous quarter.2 B FDI' In its initial stages. (Business Recorder – September 14. respectively showing an increase of 6. The volume and value of E-Payments transactions in the country during the 4th Q of FY10 reached to 53.2% in number and 7. according to dealers at Karachi's mobile phone market in Saddar. as the demand for low-cost multi-purposed Chinese handsets continued to grow. 2 B benchmark. (Business Recorder – September 18. reliable and competitively priced broadband internet to residential and small business customers across Pakistan.

9 M tons. “The General Cable will invest in Pakistan Cables on long-term basis after which the paid up capital of Pakistan Cables will increase to 28 M shares as compared to 21 M shares currently”. 2010) $115m for Karachi port project The European Union imposed new In the coming Rabi season (October- The Board of Directors of the World 13 . said that Pakistan exported almost 1000 km optic fibre cable to these countries.used for bottles and food packaging . Pakistan has huge potential for export of optic fibre cable. (Business Recorder – September 29.000 tons import of different fertilizers For the first time Pakistan has started export of optic fibre cable to Afghanistan.520 per bag compared to Rs. the overall off take of all types of urea fertilizer is likely to fall by 2. down by 14%. The duties are valid for up to 5 years and reflect Europe's concern that EU industry is falling behind oil-rich states with competitive and booming plastics markets. 44.34 euros per ton respectively until 2015. and 38% MoM. and cumulative fertiliser offtake has been down by 14% in 8 months of current calendar year. has committed to invest in Pakistan Cables by taking up a 25% equity stake in the company business. CEO Pakistan Cables Corporation said during the signing ceremony. The urea consumption is projected at 3.2. down 54% YoY. The import of this urea consists of 100000 tons of DAP in December 2010 and further 100000 tons in January 2011 and total import of DAP for Rabi season is 200 000 tons. He said that Pakistan managed to secure this tender after beating China and India in quality and price competition.116 M tons.000 tons. Official sources claimed the main reasons behind lower demand for urea fertilizer was said to be inundation of a large agricultural area with floodwater and high price of phosphate fertilizers prevailing in both domestic and international market for the last six months. sources told. The decline has been on account of high DAP price which averaged at Rs. (Daily Times – September 26.000 tons.3%. Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates saying the three were illegally subsidizing exports to Europe's growing softdrinks market. total fertiliser offtake in January-August 2010 stood at 4. "In view of the magnitude of the countervailable subsidies found and in the light of the level of the injury caused to the (European) Union's industry. The decrease was primarily down to a massive decline in August as a result of the floods.256 M tons of previous season showing a decrease of about 2.70 euros ($188. March). HQs USA.02 euros and 42. TSP/MAP to meet the domestic demand for the coming Rabi season 2010-11.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments 14% decline in fertiliser sales The floods also hurt the sale of fertiliser. DAP offtake registered a decline of 53% YoY in January-August to 425.1).180 M tons against 3.7 M tons of last year. 2010) New duties on Pakistan plastics The government will reportedly import 230. Chairman of Federal 'B' Area Association of Trade and Industry (FBAATI) and Director of Premier Cables.3% over last Rabi 2009-10.7% to 4. (Daily Times – September 26. (Daily Times – September 8. The investment will be on the basis of $1 per share. and African countries. Fertiliser offtake during August stood at 417. and a Fortune 500 company.will face EU import duties of 139. 2010) Urea consumption to shrink 27% in Rabi season Pakistan Cables has announced that General Cable Corporation. The decision means Polyethylene terephthalate from Iran. it is considered necessary" to launch the new tariffs. The offtake of DAP fertilizer is expected to decrease by 4. the EU's executive Commission said in the EU's official journal. 2010) Pakistan starts optic fibre cable export duties on plastics from Iran. and more orders were in pipeline for export. Pakistan and the UAE .003 Mtons as compared to last year consumption of 4.1. 2010) Import 230. Offtake of other phosphate (TSP/MAP) products may also decrease. 2010) US Company to invest in Pakistan Cables (Business Recorder – September 30. According to data released by National Fertiliser Development Centre. Moreover the government will import 20 thousands tons of TSP/MAP and 10000 tons of SOP/MOP in October 2010. he added.000 tons of Dye Ammonium Phosphate (DAP). (Business Recorder – September 14. compared to 5.953 per bag during the same period of last year.

” he lamented. "Fertiliser sector will continue (to function) in the post flood scenario since countrywide agriculture productivity depends upon access and affordability of agriculture inputs. He said during the last 18 months till September 2010. maize and sugarcane. and with an average discharge rate of over 1. The financial close of the project was in July 2008 whereas physical work started in September-October 2008. 2010) Marble Industry – more than $150m exports loss (Daily Times – October 3. commitmentlinked repayment schedule. 2010) Pakistan’s agriculture industry. he added.10 B. The ADB and the World Bank are assessing the damage caused by one of Pakistan’s worst natural disasters. AGRICULTURE 310. 2010) Fertiliser subsidy to continue The government will continue giving subsidy to the fertiliser sector in the post flood scenario.8 M Karachi Port Improvement Project. which destroyed 1. he explained. “The export target set by APMMPIEA is missing by $10 M every month while production loss is being estimated to be Rs. majority of which were subsistence enterprises with less than 10 employees and an annual turnover below Rs 500. 2010) (Business Recorder – September 18. He said the economic impact of the floods has yet to be fully quantified though it is evident that agriculture sector has been hit hardest. said. 2010) Debut of Automated bulk cargo terminal more than $150 M in 18 months (April 2009-Sept 2010) due to power outages and closure of mines.000 small businesses were affected by the devastating floods across the country. the ADB said.000 investment. chairman BMG APMMPIEA. (Business Recorder – October 8. The meeting was convened to discuss national fertiliser strategy. He said export target given by the Ministry of Industries and Production and TDAP for the said period of April 2010 was also missed by $10 M”.” said WB Country Director for Pakistan. “This translated into a heavy loss to the developing export oriented industry to the tune of $21 M in JulySeptember 2010. the cargo handling time at this terminal will be a third of what it takes today at other bulk cargo terminals in the country. 14 The marble exports incurred a loss of .400 M a month”. of which Rs.9 B has already been spent on the terminal facilities. the industry faced around 18-hour production loss on average daily. “Improving the efficiency of Pakistan’s trade corridors is a key element of the bank’s support to trade facilitation in the country. and 28 years maturity including a grace period of 7. Many of these ventures were established with less than Rs 1.500.000 tons per hour.5 years.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Bank has endorsed $115. fully-automated grain and fertiliser terminal of the country at Port Qasim is all set to welcome its first vessel later this month. The terminal is capable of handling 4 M tons of dry bulk cargo per annum. (The Express Tribune – October 17. relying on loans from relatives and the accumulated life savings of these entrepreneurs. (Dawn – September 11. The scale of the project meant that a consortium would be required to execute it successfully. The total investment of the project is Rs. informed CEO of Fauji Akbar Portia Marine Terminals Limited (FAP). The meeting also assured that gas curtailment to the sector would end as soon as gas situation improves. could take up to two years to start recovering from devastating summer floods. The financing is an IBRD flexible loan with fixed-spread.000 small businesses affected by Floods Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority has estimated that around 310. SMEDA CEO revealed this in a meeting held to discuss rehabilitative steps required to counter post-flood recovery challenges facing the nation amid the worst natural disaster and rehabilitation of small and medium enterprises." said a press release. 000. a pillar of the economy. Agriculture may need 2 years for recovery The first of its kind. in an interview.3 M hectares of crops just before the harvest of key products such as rice. All Pakistan Marble Mining Processing Industry and Exporters Association (APMMPIEA) said. level repayments. This was decided at a meeting presided over by Minister for Industries and Production.

horses. But bankers say they will also have to build a mechanism for heavier disbursement of development loans to enable flood-hit farmers to buy agricultural implements and inputs and to repair damaged water courses.86 M tons last year. The damages to total livestock became 1% if the 0. Farmers estimate cumulative annual demand for crop and agricultural development loans at Rs. Initial estimate of this additional demand is Rs. Banks will have to extend larger amounts of crop loans at cheaper rates Pakistan is likely to produce another bumper wheat crop during the upcoming Rabi crop season. Now. Banks provide farm loans to about 1. They said that this year due to soil's better moisture level wheat production in barani areas is expected to reach 2.” said the head of an agricultural credit of a large local bank. Faysal Bank. 2010) 500. it will be able to meet part of those agricultural import needs that will happen over the next two years. (Daily Times – September 3. “Filling in this gap is a long-term policy issue. particularly in the Rabi sowing season. Officials maintained last year. HBL. sources told.5 M tons. Nearly 62% of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihoods. according to a report "Preliminary Assessment of 2010 flood impacts in Pakistan" conducted by Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC). (Business Recorder – October 16.starting agricultural activity to reactivate agricultural activity. The Agriculture Finance Committee comprising representatives from NBP. 2010) Bumper wheat crop likely these areas have the capacity to produce over 2 M tons.” (Dawn – September 20. Banks should focus now on additional demand for agricultural loans created after the floods. This would provide a basis for an immediate agricultural revival package that the central bank may announce shortly. (Dawn – September 20. camels. the newly-appointed SBP Governor is expected to announce a set of guidelines for concessional agricultural financing in flood-hit areas. donkeys. a total of 973684.8 M tons of wheat. ratio of the died animals became just one percent. 2010) Kick . Bankers say the SBP is devising a concessional agricultural refinance scheme for banks to ensure availability of adequate financing to flood-affected farmers at single–digit interest rates.300 B. sheep. whereas About 1 Macres of forest land has been destroyed by floods in the four provinces and Azad Kashmir. “We are thinking within that time horizon we should be able to see the agriculture sector coming back. Askari Bank and ZTBL has submitted its report. UBL. “Most of small and medium-sized growers have no access to agricultural loans and they borrow from informal sources. etc are died during the recent colossal deluge. Officials said that due to favorable weather conditions Pakistan is in a position to produce about 25 M tons of wheat as compared to 23. The provincial governments were in the process of re-assessment and it would take a little more time before their final figures are tabulated. goat.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments “Once the country gets back on its feet. the sources maintained. Final estimate would emerge once the SBP and the federal and provincial governments come up with precise calculations.000 animals including buffaloes. told. accounting for over 21% of gross domestic product. 2010) 1 M acres of forest land destroyed The SBP has received input from banks on what needs to be done to facilitate flood-hit growers across the country. while the wheat production in canal irrigated areas would be around 23 M tons. According to the report available with Business Recorder.” he told.2000 B whereas banks’ lending remains below Rs. Agriculture is Pakistan’s second largest sector. officials at Ministry of Food and Agriculture said.250 B. mules. said a central banker.” DG of ADB’s private sector operations.50 M was compared the total livestock population 160 Mfigures as per 2006 census was to be relied.4 M growers or one fifth of an estimated seven M potential borrowers.000 animals perished Initial estimates of the provinces revealed that the ongoing colossal deluge about 500. Even these figures were yet to be confirmed as decided in a recent meeting in ministry of livestock. farmers in barani areas managed to produce only 0.55 acres of forest land 15 .

(Daily Times – September 4. rice. cotton and sugar cane. sheep and goats owned by households in the flooded areas would starve if animal feed is not provided urgently. seed stocks. livestock. the FAO said. If the next wheat crop is not salvaged. says Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO). 2010) Rs. cotton.6 M hectares of outstanding crop The FAO said it had completed procurement for the provision of seeds to 200. and 6 M poultry (Department of Livestock).5-0.000 farming families and needed additional funding to be able to provide seeds for twice that number. rice. 2010) Damage to 3. cattle.78 acres of forest land was destroyed. the United Nations’ food agency said. silt deposits and damage to irrigation structures mean that work must start now to clear and prepare the soil for planting and to repair water systems for upcoming planting seasons. yielding 24.6 M tons of wheat stock needed for the wheat planting season – death of 1. (i) Wheat planting season. the Food and Agriculture Organisation said in a statement.2 M livestock and 6 M poultry were lost in the flooding and over one M buffalo. the food security of millions will be at risk. farmland). This planting season is vital as wheat is Pakistan’s main staple crop. Near East.g.827 acres and Azad Kashmir 2202.38% of the total provincial land area.2 M large and small animals.” Chief of FAO’s Emergency Operations. millions of people have lost their entire means to sustain themselves in the immediate and longer term owing to the destruction/damage of standing crops and means of agricultural production (e. “Unless people get seeds over the next few weeks they will not be able to plant wheat for a year. followed by Sindh where 14 districts with a %age of 14.25 acres.85 were damaged by the floods. according to Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association. The estimated loss to the cotton crop in recent flash floods in Punjab and Sindh stands at more than Rs. followed by Punjab where the recorded loss was 430887. and may not be able to harvest wheat again until spring 2012.5 Mtons of seed stocks in Asia’s third-largest wheat producer.75 B loss to cotton crop The scale of losses to the agriculture sector in the country caused by the floods is unprecedented and further unfolding. Extensive water-logging. Europe and Special Emergencies. beginning in September/October. FAO is currently focusing on two time-sensitive challenges: (i) meeting the upcoming wheat planting season and (ii) saving livestock. The latest cumulative estimates are as follows: – The Agriculture Cluster rapid damage assessments. completed in half of all the flood-affected districts.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments was damaged by the current devastating floods triggered by monsoon rains across the country. accounts for two-thirds of national cereal production (planted on 9. irrigation. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) forests in 9 districts accounting for 3.05 M tons) and provides 60% of the carbohydrate and protein requirement for an average Pakistani. (Business Recorder – September 8. with the heaviest loss in Punjab with 18 affected districts and an 11.7 acres. said. sugar cane. maize. orchards and vegetables) appears Pakistan’s next wheat harvest is at risk after floods destroyed more than 0. citing early estimates.75 B. An estimated 1. Asia. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 46034.” Chief of FAO’s said. If wheat seeds. “The cotton crop in terms of value faced more than 30% of the total losses 16 . (The Express Tribune – September 1. fertilizers and farming tools are not provided rapidly. Across the country. Pakistan’s worst floods in decades have damaged 3. Response to needs in the agriculture sector cannot be underestimated nor delayed. 2010) Immense Losses to agriculture sector likely – loss of 0.05 M hectares in 2009.8% of total land area was destroyed while forests in 2 districts of Kashmir suffered damages. The highest loss was recorded in Sindh where about 494559. including standing crops (e. Forest land in about 41 districts across the country has been adversely affected by floods. many farmers will miss this year’s wheat planting season. found that 1.3 M hectares of standing crops have been damaged – countrywide damage to millions of hectares of cultivatable land.g. “Food aid alone will not be enough.6 M hectares of standing maize.

1% to 2.890 commercial poultry.1. The PDA has estimated that indirect losses to the sector stand at Rs. He said the flood affected around 600. These include deaths of more than 369. He said the country lost about 2. Industry experts said that tractor sales would likely to decline by 25% in the month of September. (The Nation – September 8. With all these initiatives. buffaloes.4k units in same period last year.644 ringgit ($850) trading break in Kuala Lumpur. a traders’ group said. Additionally Rs.4.666 tons.48. highest volumetric growth was witnessed in Millat Tractors. driven by festival demand in Asia.5 M bales against the production target of 14.000 hectares of land valued at Rs. Officials stressed that the numbers are likely to rise even further. Among two listed tractor assemblers.” PCGA Patronin-Chief said.86 B have either died or been otherwise affected by the deluge. Palm oil has advanced 18% from near an 8 months low on July 7. Cotton crop had been sown on 3.7bn compared to Rs. according to data compiled by the Pakistan Dairy Association. (Daily Times – September 14. 5 B Livestock losses in KP and 220.07 M in fodders have been lost.345 M. PDA data informed.ever floods destroyed villages.946 livestock have been killed by the floods while another 437. according to the initial surveys conducted. tractor sales have witnessed an increase of 11 percent to 38k units in Pakistan. witnessed volumetric growth of 13% during 1H2010. (Daily Times – September 7.4 M hectares.674 ringgit.6 M hectares had been destroyed. Millat Tractor.2 M in poultry feed. Findings have highlighted that at least 140.40. A severe jolt by this flood has also given a deathblow to the national economy. (The Express Tribune – September 1. the highest level since Aug 16. as the figures released are based on initial reports. according to the Federal Bureau of Statistics. Cows. Both these measures provided impetus for additional tractor demand due to lower prices and accessibility to lower income persons.05 M in feed concentrate and Rs. which showed an increase of 9%. Futures for November delivery declined 1.11.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments to major crops in the recent devastating floods.237 animals have been affected. Our imports may decline after floods washed away our selling points and imports in July were 147. It is to be noted that to enhance agri activities government announced many incentives directly related to agriculture sector like removal of sales tax on tractors and Benazir Tractor Scheme. the official spokesperson of the association told. the cumulative earnings of both the companies stood higher by 27% during 1H2010. may buy 10% less of the commodity in October and November than in July after the country’s worst.762 B.50. Prices jumped 1. The company was able to sell 21k units compared to 18. Hence.5. goats and sheep worth at least Rs. which enjoyed 56% market share.9. with higher volumetric sales and better margins. up by 13% followed by Al-Ghazi. And this trend would keep on at least in the short run. Hence net revenues for the company improved by 20% to Rs.000 hectares cotton sowing areas across the country. Rs.5 M bales in crop season 2010-11. 2010) Rs.8% to 2.8bn last year. out of which 0. the water still floating in cultivated areas will also hurt the tractor sales in second half of the fiscal year 2010. 2010) Tractors sale to hurt 1H2010.5 M bales to 12.5 B in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P) due to the havoc wreaked by the recent floods. 2010) 17 .261 domestic poultry The worst-ever flood in the history of the country has almost devastated the basic infrastructure of the country and is still engulfing agricultural lands mostly in Punjab and Sindh. 2010) Palm-oil imports may drop Livestock losses have reached almost Rs.75 m used for cultivating fodder and animal feed has also been destroyed. the world’s third-biggest importer of palm oil. Along with this. Poultry losses have exceeded Rs. Approximately 6.

a leading industry . and tools and by supporting the rehabilitation of land and livestock sector in Pakistan.000 tons of palm oil a month in the OctoberDecember quarter. experts said.625 during August 2009.Country may face 15% water shortage With 50 M acre feet (MAF) floodwater gone into the sea due to flaw in the water storage mechanism. said. This was revealed during the IRSA technical committee’s meeting at the authority’s office under the chairmanship of IRSA Chairman to review the water availability for Rabi season 2010-11. according to the data released by the Federal Bureau of Statistics. when Pakistan imported about 3 M tons of palm oil. Exports in August were recorded at $15.690 and in August it increased by 1.500 M has been allocated to encourage farmers to sow canola in the flood affected areas of the country for the current Rabi season. Minister of International Cooperation Canada.” vice chairman of the Pakistan Edible Oil Refiners Association.18%. According to a circular (SMEFD Circular No 15) issued – under the scheme.74 M during the 1st 2 months of FY 2010/11. Exports of seafood during August witnessed 55. The export in the same months last year remained $253 M. financing will be provided at affordable/concessional markup rates through banks. 2010) SBP launched concessional financing official said. The sources said that during the next crop season. as traders earn profits on current stocks in a bull-run global market. “Today.25% during the 1st 2 months of the CY against the same period last year.000 tons a month in the October-December quarter. 2010) Rice exports up by 43% surged by 82. fertilizers.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Rabi season 2010-11 . the Indus River System Authority said that the country might confront a 15% water shortage during the upcoming Rabi season 2010-11 for agriculture purposes as only 34. (Daily Times – October 6.000-170. (Daily Times – September 25. Pakistan made large palm oil purchases in September. Indus zone might face up to 20% water shortage. in a news release issued here said the contribution responds to agricultural recovery needs by providing seeds. under which an amount of Rs. The fish and fish preparations during July-August (2010/11) were recorded at $29. According to the data. Canada is providing urgently needed agricultural support to make sure that farmers can recover and 18 The seafood exports from the country Pakistan may buy up to 170.” He expected overall buying for 2010 to be 10% higher as compared to 2009. which will start from next month (October). Imports from Malaysia alone stood at 203. everybody is making margins on the current stocks.296 M during July-August (2009/10).044 tons. (The News – September 22. (The Nation – October 15. “When the market is on a bull-run.55% during July/August this year amid robust demand in the international markets. so they are buying. 2010) Palm oil imports seen steady Canadian Government announced further support in agriculture sector for those affected by the recent floods in Pakistan.95% increase over the same month last year.700 M against the exports of $16. it said. attributing the rise to a possible change in the consumption pattern. 2010) Canada to support Pakistan in Agriculture sector Pakistan’s rice exports have registered an increase of 42. 2010) Surge in Seafood exports The SBP has launched a concessional financing and guarantee scheme. “Buying will not be as good as in September but I think it will remain between 150. seafood exports during July stood at $14.5 MAF water would be available. while River Chenab and Jehlum will probably deal with 5% water shortage. Provisional statistics of export receipts released by the SBP show that the rice exports soared to $360.010 M against the exports of $9. (The News – September 30.

allowing these organizations to help meet the humanitarian and early recovery needs associated with the agricultural sector for the current Rabi wheat season.7 B worth of loans. if the actual market price is unfavorable for growers – the Recent floods have adversely affected . The payments solution will be made available through the banks electronic banking platform. sanitation. 2010) Production cost of paddy rises government decides intervention prices.25 B.000 borrowers and save another 4. 2010) four out of ten borrowers of a small loan which will lead to the writing off of almost 11% of the microfinance institutions’ balance sheets. (Daily Times – October 19. which has been extended to SME customers to help them manage their cash flows through electronic channels.5.000 jobs in the microfinance sector. health services. (Daily Times – October 17. Normally.2. “Preliminary estimates show that recent floods have affected 733.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments plant on their land in time for the critical wheat season currently underway. With today’s announcement. Cash Management is one of the focus areas. the government has announced intervention prices for ‘super basmati’. MFIs extend loans on comparatively higher interest rates to clients without collateral. To safeguard the interest of rice producers.595 per 40 kg in 2010-11 compared with Rs. Our help will also prevent further loss of livestock that is critical to the well-being of farmers in the flooded regions. shelter. relief supplies. He also said that the floods damaged 87 offices of microfinance institutions that will cost Rs. Rs. These estimates have been provided by the Pakistan Microfinance Network. an umbrella organization for all the microfinance institutions. He said at least Rs.8 B of microfinance loans were disbursed in those areas which have been adversely affected by the floods.5 M will be provided by CIDA from the Pakistan Flood Relief Fund to the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation ($6 M). sources told.490/40 kg last year. signed an agreement for Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) Cash Management services. the government of Canada’s response to the flood relief efforts in Pakistan now totals $52 M.000 people and 4. The Bank's SME Banking comprises team of qualified professionals who design and structure financial solutions that fulfil customers' requirements. and Development and Peace ($2 M).” said the Chairman of Pakistan Microfinance Network. Straight2Bank. 2010) 40% of small borrowers are affected Production cost of Paddy (IRRI) in Sindh has increased by 21% to Rs.97 M and the lending portfolio has reached Rs. water. to set The recent intervention prices were established by Agriculture Policy Institute (API) – a sub-ordinate department of ministry of food and agriculture. and coordination and logistics and for the restoration of links to communities cut off by the flooding.000 of these will have to be laid off if the government does not rescue the sector. ‘basmati’ and ‘IRRI’ across the country. Through this arrangement Standard Chartered will provide a comprehensive payments and collections solution.000 clients and will result in a write-off of Rs.” A total of $11.5 M). Previous financial contributions were for the provision of emergency food.1 B is required to offset the impact of the written-off loans and to give new loans to affected individuals. MFIs’ clients have reached 1. (Business Recorder – September 15.” said CEO of the Pakistan Microfinance Network. protection. the sources maintained. which are synchronized with their Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. 19 MICRO BUSINESS & SME SME Cash Management Services Standard Chartered and Oasis Travel. He said that out of Rs. Standard Chartered SME banking was established as a dedicated business in Pakistan with an aim to meet unique needs of its customers.250 M to revamp. “The sector employs 11. Save the Children Canada ($3. The network has sought a bailout package from the government and international donors to restore the livelihood of 733.25 B. In line with the Bank's SME Banking platform.

Under this programme. three projects in chemical industry and dairy sector are underway. Real estate and operational costs excluded. So far the reported default in the agriculture sector has reached about Rs. one project in sports wear in Pakistan has already been completed. The officials informed MCCI officebearers that the Private Sector Investment (PSI) programme of Netherland government. 2010) The flood has changed the trend of NPLs as most of the NPLs are being reported from agriculture sector which may hurt the government’s as well as State Bank’s move to persuade banks for greater participation for the recovery of agriculture sector.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments As much as 55% of small loans have been extended to borrowers from rural areas. The SBP in an early estimate had said that NPLs could surge by another Rs. The offer was renewed by Head of Economic Affairs of Embassy of Netherlands. The funds are released during the project. the federal government and the World Bank. “Non-performing loans are expected to increase. They said that the funding. The suggested package envisages grants and/or interest-free loans to the flood-hit small businesses for rehabilitation.28 B while the total NPLs caused by the flood was around Rs. after achieving predefined results. (Dawn – October 11. About forty-one per cent has been disbursed in the agriculture sector and around a third given out in the trade sector. 2010) NPLs estimate .5 M Euros allows spending on hardware (equipment. while talking to the members and Senior Vice President of MCCI. 20 FINANCIAL SERVICES Downgraded: ratings of largest banks Outlook on long-term local currency .42 B. recently proposed to the government fiscal measures for helping smaller enterprises hit by the recent floods. especially those extended to small and medium enterprises and to the agriculture sector. The total funding of 1.5 M Euros (Rs. The long-term outlook of ABL.HBL. the ratings agency has affirmed that the foreign currency deposit ratings of ‘B3/Not-Prime’ assigned to these banks. is aimed at alleviating poverty and strengthening private sector investment. (Business Recorder – October 11.SBP The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Authority. “We have proposed to the government to create a special fund – Credit Markup Sharing Fund – for totally or partially subsidizing bank loans to the flood-hit businesses as well as to seek foreign donations for providing grants to the affected enterprises.50 B due to flood. machinery).” he summed up. NBP and UBL has been downgraded to negative.” he said.61 M). “Our support package basically comprises two recommendations. Simultaneously. they apprised. (The Express Tribune – September 3. A senior banker of large a bank said banks could not afford to face further losses as the increasing load of NPLs has already reached to optimum point. while three are under consideration. Training of people and Project management. open in Pakistan since 2005 with an annual budget of 70 M Euros.” commented Research Head at InvestCap. (The Express Tribune – September 21. available under 40-60 arrangement. The suggested package has been given to the federal industries ministry for getting the government’s approval. is subject to certain evaluation to be conducted by Holland government officials. The average loan size is $147 or Rs. 2010) Reviving SME businesses Holland offers 60% of funding Netherlands has offered up to 60% of funding to Pakistani projects (SMEs) having a maximum cost of 1.176. “The profitability of banks will be affected going forward. 2010) deposits and the financial strength of savings of five Pakistani banks has been changed from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’ by Moody’s Investors Service.680 and the average interest rate is 25%.” CEO of Smeda told. MCB.2. The damage assessment in the microfinance sector is based on the estimates of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP).

which Engro believes is a good attraction for people who usually invest in long-term National Savings Certificates.25.475 M. “The deal was delayed because the board took time to ensure that the acquisition meets Islamic banking laws. The acquisition will have to wait for regulatory approval by the SBP. The amount at which the acquisition will take place has not been disclosed. Analysts said that despite a 27% decline in the underwriting results. the initial offer is worth Rs. It will bring together rich experience and skill of the two groups in the financial sector. 2010) Engro launches Rupiya certificates The net profit of the listed non-life insurance companies increased by 9%.31 B (approximately $370 M) between them. 2010) Merger to buy Citibank Pakistan’s house financing portfolio had been accepted.1. (Dawn – October 3. Both companies are rated amongst the best managed companies in the country. who did not want to be named. "This increase is primarily attributable to higher dividend income and lower provision for impairment during the first half of 2010 and low general and administration expenses". The joint entity is expected to become the largest private sector asset management company. There are 415 customers. is Rs. said.434 M in the corresponding period of last year. to Rs.4 B. who will now switch to Islamic mode of banking. Bankislami said in a notice to the Karachi Stock Exchange. he said. (Business Recorder – September 9.000.” The size of the Citibank’s housing portfolio is close to Rs.5% p. Bankislami announced that its offer .2 21 Around 70% of the population of Pakistan with currently no access to banking facilities will have financial services by 2015 through Easypaisa. 2010) Citibank accepts Bankislami’s offer Engro Corporation announced the launch of Rupiya Certificates with an aim to target retail investors and gather funds to meet expansion requirements of its fertiliser and food businesses. claimed the bank. in the half-year period ended on June 30. 2010) 9% rise in non-life insurance sector profits He said that more than 2.460 B. analyst at JS Global Capital. A MoU was signed in this regard by MCB Bank and Arif Habib Securities recently. Of the total.” a senior Bankislami official. and demonstrated visible strength during the severe liquidity crunch and credit crunch of 2008. said a statement issued. the listed noninsurance sector posted a decent growth in the bottom line.1 B. (The News – October 12.. which may serve as an agent of positive change and a much-awaited good omen for the industry.266 B to a total of Rs. “Our Shariah Board has given green signal to the deal. The asset-backed issue of TFCs will be for a period of 3 years offering a return of 14.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments The NPLs of banking sector witnessed rapid increase especially in the last two years as it jumped by 137% with an addition of Rs.7 B people in the world have no access to any formal financial services and if the financial inclusion goals are to be achieved. President and CEO of Tameer Bank said this while chairing the discussion on Financial Inclusion at the United Nations Private Sector Forum on Millennium Development Goals held recently at the UN Headquarters. This acquisition will be in line with the principles of shariah. said. The total size of the TFCs. MCB Bank's 1100 branches network in the country would provide wider reach to the various products being offered by the two asset management companies. as compared to Rs. 2010. the solution has to be transformational not transitional. (The News – September 29. The merger is likely to provide the new entity the requisite critical mass to broaden the reach.a. As independent entities MCB AMC and Arif Habib Investments manage approximately Rs. (Business Recorder – October 5. 2010) Bank services for all MCB Asset Management and Arif Habib Investments would be merged subject to all regulatory approvals and compliance. which will be available at 11 banks and TCS outlets from Friday with a minimum investment of Rs. The investment income increased by 23% and the general and administration expenses reduced by 2% in the 1st half of 2010 over the same period last year.

8 % (4.” said the report. banks/DFIs have been advised to use the guidelines for developing products for financing to infrastructure sectors according to their policy and operational and market requirements. payment of markup rate subsidy on business loans to textile sector for the period from January 1. Security Package and Project Insurance (G-2) besides Regulatory Compliance (G-3).457 B in March-10) as compared to last two years’ average quarterly growth of 9.460 B in April-June 2010 quarter (Rs.4% growth in its asset base to Rs. Collateral Arrangements.2 B. Guidelines broadly cover areas such as Credit Appraisal SBP directed all banks and DFIs to ensure fiscal relief to rehabilitate the economic life in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.7%.9% in March10) and net NPLs to Loans ratio declined to 3. which was well supported by growth in deposits. mainly occurred in banks’ balances. 2010) New guidelines issued by State Bank Islamic banking institutions have improved their market share in the country’s banking industry despite prevailing of a depressive economic situation. subject to compliance with relevant SBP regulations. (Business Recorder – September 7.1% at the end of June 2010 from 5. etc. 2010) Islamic banks grasp 6. start-up and operation stages of the project. Due to contained increase in NPLs. 2010. the increase in asset base of the banking system. According to SBP’s Quarterly Performance Review of the Banking System for the quarter ended on June 30. 2010 regarding the subject SBP said in this connection it is advised that the federal government has included the entire textile sector of Khyber 22 . (The Express Tribune .128 B in April-June quarter compared with overall deposits of Rs.2% (70. (The Express Tribune – October 15.1% in June 2009. 2010) Markup rate subsidy REGULATORY Infrastructure project finance Pakistan’s banking industry witnessed a 5.2% in March-10). 2010) Banking industry’s asset base grown Revised guidelines for infrastructure project financing for banks and development financial institutions (DFIs) have been issued by the SBP. 2010. The guidelines cover areas such as credit appraisal. The Report pointed out that the banking system witnessed a letup in the inflow of fresh non-performing loans (NPLs) during the quarter under review that has been a leading challenge for the last two years or so.774 B in January-March quarter of FY10. The SBP in its recent report noted that Islamic banking continued to flourish and increased its share in banking system to 6. interbank lending.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments B with a green shoe option of another Rs. The salient features of the revised guidelines include the requirement for establishing a mechanism for generating feasibility reports and assessing risk mitigation means in the development. 2010 to June 30. security packages. The NPLs of banks registered a marginal growth of 0. construction.782 B during April-June quarter of the 2009-2010 FY (FY10) compared with a contraction of 1.4% in the January-March quarter of FY10. This was revealed in a circular issued by the SBP. According to a Circular issued by SBP.4. which was adequately covered by loan loss provisioning. project insurance and regulatory compliance. government papers and public sector commodity finance.6 % to Rs.6. the provision coverage ratio of NPLs improved to 73. Banking industry’s deposits rose to The SBP issued revised guidelines for Infrastructure Project Finance to facilitate banks and development finance institutions (DFIs) in providing financing solutions to infrastructure projects in the country. collateral arrangements. (Daily Times – October 7.September 7. Referring to SMEFD circular 11 July 1. 2010) (G-1). The Islamic banking witnessed a double digit growth in assets during the 2nd Q (May-June) 2010 despite the fact that a couple of Islamic banks went through consolidation phase affecting the Islamic banking activities. FATA and PATA.1% market share Rs 5. (Dawn – October 11.

2010) Rate of Refinance up The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan has reviewed and amended the Companies (Issue of Capital) Rules. according to BSD Circular No 5 of October 5. 2010. (Daily Times – September 1.1%. downgrade and withdrawals) for accurate Capital Adequacy Ratio reporting. The SECP has approved the concept of the MTS in a meeting held at the commission. It projected an average annual inflation in FY11 at 13. 2010 would be amended to allow the concept of Margin Trading System. were almost equal to the combined total for health and education. adding that this was by no means an acceptable situation. The amendments are being notified in the official gazette to solicit public opinion as required under sub-section (1) of Section 506 of the Companies Ordinance. “In FY10. The target set in the budget was 4. 2010) More risk mitigating measures added The Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan has approved the concept of Margin Trading System (MTS) with additional risk mitigating measures. The bank’s annual report for 2009-10 issued said there was a noticeable improvement in macroeconomic indicators during FY10 with the economy growing at 4. 1984 (the Ordinance). the SECP has also decided to amend the draft Securities (Margin Financing. These ratings must fulfil all requirements. (Dawn – September 9. 2010) Issue of capital rules and Borrowing and Pledging) Rules. banks/DFIs should have mechanism to monitor changes in ratings (upgrade. (Business Recorder – October 6. In addition.5%. Securities Lending and Borrowing and Pledging) Rules. 2010) Guidelines to comply Anti-Harassment Law The SBP has issued instructions to all the banks to comply with the ‘Protection Against Harassment of Women at Work Place Act 2010’ displaying the Code of Conduct within their premises. The SECP would also incorporate the viewpoint of the stakeholders to incorporate viable proposals to ensure protection to the investors and minimise risk to the market. .5-14.2% in the preceding year. The report said the total public debt and liabilities had substantially 23 The SBP has said that banks/DFIs would be allowed to use only solicited ratings assigned by recognized external credit assessment institutions (ECAIs) for the purpose of capital adequacy with immediate effect. 2010) Banks-DFIs to use only recognized ECAIs solicited ratings In a circular issued the SBP said that banks can charge a maximum margin of 1% on financing facilities provided to exporters. these expenditures. as a percentage of GDP. it said. 1996.5%. The rating agency should have reviewed/assigned the rating within previous 15 months. 2010) MACRO ENVIRONMENT SBP projects 2-3% growth The SBP has predicted 2-3% GDP growth in the CFY despite severe flood losses. Securities Lending The SBP revised the refinance rate under the Export Finance Scheme.” it said. The report said the impact of floods had strengthened inflationary expectations and the August CPI showed a 15.5% and fiscal and current account deficits at 5-6% and 3-4% of the GDP. (The Express Tribune – October 1.6% y-o-y rise in its food component. The banks are also directed to form specific committees to address these complaints and ensure conducive environment for working women. In this regard. 2010. The previous refinance rate was 8. The new rate will take effect from October 1. compared to 1. (Business Recorder – September 16. A 10.7% growth in subsidies and losses of public sector enterprises was particularly disappointing. The draft Securities (Margin Financing. increasing it by 50 bps to 9% per annum.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Pakhtunkhwa in Prime Minister’s fiscal relief package for FATA/PATA/ Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. and all ratings used should be publicly disclosed by the ECAIs along with its history. (Daily Times – September 8.

The Ministry of Finance reported that the government has collected total revenues of Rs.25%.437 billion last year. The rise in deficit appears to go up during next months as the country will start to import more oil and food items for bridging the domestic shortfall in power and farm produce. slightly below the 11. economist of Standard Chartered Bank Pakistan said.” the IMF said.850 B against $3. 2010 against $7. Exports grew by 16. The government earlier had targeted GDP growth of 4. high current expenditures and shortfalls in projected external financing.5%.2% in FY 2008-09 and higher than the revised FY10 fiscal deficit target of 5. 2010) Fiscal deficit reaches 6.5% this year. It projected that workers’ remittances were likely to stay between $9. He said nearly 20 Mpeople have been displaced. 2010) CA deficit widens by 48% borrowing by the banking sources to meet inflation-hit public expenditures also swelled the size of fiscal deficit to a great extent in FY10.7% of GDP in FY09 to 69.8 trillion. analyst said.1%. (Dawn – September 21. 2010) Economy hit by flood Current account deficit of the country rose sharply by 48% during the 1st 2 months of the new fiscal.5%. The SBP reported that external deficit during July-August of the CFY reached $944 M against $635 M during the corresponding period of last year. Prior to the disaster. compared to 5. In Pakistan. US and Europe were directly responsible for less than 15% of Asian economies’ export growth in H1-2010 (with the exception of China and the Philippines). GDP < 2.5 B. the government’s heavy budgetary In 2010.668 B of GDP during July-June FY10.3pc in FY10 Inflation in Pakistan is expected to accelerate to 13.7% to $5. 24 Pakistan’s trade deficit widened by a robust 22. “The economic outlook has deteriorated sharply as a result of the floods.586 B last year.02% to $9. making this one of the worst natural disasters in history.2.5% this year as massive summer floods push up prices for food and other staples. adding that GDP growth was unlikely to exceed 2. the IMF had projected average inflation for the current 2010/11 FY at 11. (Dawn – September 22.75% this FY year.261 B in the FY 2008-09. The heavy floods in the Indus River resulting from monsoon rains have caused widespread damage to the economy.3 % of GDP. the IMF said in its country report. 2010) Trade gap widens Pakistan’s fiscal deficit for the FY 200910 (July-June) is reported to have soared by 6.495 B against the deficit of $9. reflecting poor performance of economy on external front while signaling a red alert for the ailing economy. Asian export recovery has been largely driven by intra-regional trade with the US and Europe.029 B in July-Sept. making limited contributions.2% increase while expenditure recorded at Rs.14.8 trillion with 20. showing 14.179 B in the 1st Q of 2010 against $4.5 B and $10. while exports and imports were likely to be $20 B to $21 B and $34 B to $35 B.930 B or Rs.27% in 1st 3 months of the CFY to a larger than expected $3. The trade gap ballooned as imports . The fiscal deficit has reached a record Rs.7% seen last year.3. respectively. whereas the IMF expected it at 4.5%.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments increased from 68. The higher growth in the government’s fiscal deficit is attributed to low tax revenues.75% rose at a faster clip than exports during the months (July-Sept) under review after a slight narrowing in deficit in previous months. (Dawn – October 11. (Dawn – October 26. (The Nation – September 1. Official figures released here on Friday by the federal bureau of statistics (FBS) showed that import bill increased by 19.148 B last year mainly due to rising furnace oil imports used in power generation. 2010) IMF: Inflation 13. The last FY was much better for Pakistan as external deficit fell by 63% to $3. with losses estimated at $4 B (2% of GDP). Similarly. floods have hit economy hard.5% surge during the entire course of FY10.

with nearly 30% of cultivable land destroyed by the flooding. The Ministry of Food. Initial estimates suggest that total loss in the province by flood was Rs.4 46.88 B with Rs. leaving most of the affected households without shelter. Losses to the economy are estimated at close to $4 B (2% of GDP). he maintained.2 M acres of cropland is under water.446. with road links cut off.103 B. he added. Agriculture analyst said the floods have caused widespread damage to the standing crop. but the reconstruction of infrastructure again and compensation to be paid to people who had lost their sources of livelihood would cast between $25 B to $30 B. 2010) Flood losses at $9. Sindh suffered the maximum damage amounting to around Rs350 billion.5% from 4.253 B. severely hampering supply of essential food commodities to villages and towns. the details will be known only after the completion of a damage assessment report jointly initiated by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). over 2.1 B in agriculture sector on account of damage to crops over 3.l4 B on account 25 A preliminary Damage Need Assessment (DNA) report prepared by the World Bank and Asian Development Bank says that Pakistan suffered a loss of about $9.000.000 tons. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Rs.122.11. after the government missed key performance targets in areas including the fiscal deficit. the backbone of the economy. Sources in the planning commission said the report had only highlighted . versus earlier forecast of 12%. Livestock sector suffered a loss of Rs. 2010) Rs. IMF role: Relations with the IMF hit a roadblock in June 2010.1% in FY10. infrastructure and public and private property in the four provinces and Fata. he informed. Damages: The floods have damaged public infrastructure. power stations shut down.8 B losses to Sindh Sindh has suffered Rs. "The situation is that water is not receding in the affected areas of the province.5 B.5%. (Dawn – October 13. and the bad news is that it might not be able to even plant the 'Rabbi' crops in standing water. He said that over 7274 villages and 43 towns have been inundated. with supply of 1.8 B loss on account of damage to various sectors of the economy. and might remain in the cropping areas for quite some time" said by advisor to Sindh chief minister for planning and development. Balochistan Rs.428 B. More than 2.55 B and Fata Rs. The National Highway Authority estimates nearly 1. this would follow growth of 4.8 B. while over 300 rice and other mills have so far been damaged. in terms of damaged crops.446. due in October. According to the report. and gas and petroleum supplies suspended.500MW disrupted due to damage to power plants.000 bridges and more than 400 km of road infrastructure have been destroyed. The power infrastructure has also been badly damaged. The country expects a significant slowdown in GDP growth in FY11 (ends June 2011) and lower growth forecast to 2. It is expected FY11 inflation to jump sharply to 15%. it said. 175 health centres and 1. borrowing from the central bank and implementation of the value added tax (VAT).000 watersupply facilities have been damaged. "We will not be able to plant rabbi crops because the water which reached the province after causing devastation in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa and Punjab is not receding at the normal pace as the slope of fields is not towards the sea".5 B the damage caused by floods. suffered losses of crops and livestock to the tune of Rs. and another $ 450 M in losses in the livestock sector. He said that the government has to take decision for import of essential commodities to avert their shortage due to losses to crops by the floods. depending on the extent of the damage and the measures taken by the government to reconstruct and rebuild the affected areas. However. according to the National Disaster Management Agency. exacerbating the existing energy crisis and further stalling growth. followed by Punjab Rs. (Daily Times – September 9.25 M houses have been completely destroyed.500 schools. Agriculture and Livestock estimates losses to the agriculture sector at $ 2.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Nearly 1. Individuals.5 B (over Rs800 B) in recent floods.

mainly in stocks.043 B in corresponding period of FY 2009-10.87% or $86 M. 2010) . to $267 M during July-August of CFY against $405. or 40.000 animals. Similarly. Losses in crops and livestock. and limited economic activity in a large part of the country will dampen growth prospects in virtually every sector. The ADO Update on Pakistan said that the picture should also be a little clearer when an international donors’ conference is held in late November.2. depicting an increase of 17.1% or $34.52 B. however. Portfolio investment mounted to $95. with a drop of 50.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments of 200.1 M.1% decline in foreign investment Services trade deficit posted an increase of 18% during the 1st 2 months of the CFY mainly due to high imports followed by rising payments on account of transportation.5% is expected in FY 2011.37. As the major transportation arteries of the country have been severely damaged.2%.26. potentially. 2010) 40.156 B in July- The SBP said that foreign investment posted a decrease of $138. Export of Services trade mounted by 5% or $27 M to $589 M in 1st 2 months of CFY relative to $562 M in same period of last FY.1%. royalties and government sector. irrigation Rs. and policy makers should take some steps to check the reason of poor performance of this sector. Economists said that increasing deficit and imports of services sector is a matter concern. imports under services sector registered an increase of 11% due to high payments on account of transportation. According to SBP major decline took place in FDI. such that tepid gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2. 2010) Rise in food items export Asian Development Outlook 2010 Update The impact on Pakistan’s economic prospects of the massive flooding that began in early August 2010 is difficult to quantify. The SBP said that the country's services sector trade deficit was gradually rising and overall imports and deficit are on surge. shortages of goods and services—even with rapidly rampedup imports—are expected to put substantial upward pressure on prices.3 B because of damage to 1.7 M.10 B to government buildings. technical fee.000 km roads. Moreover. portfolio investment. (Business Recorder – September 26. and Rs. Total loss to the housing sector was Rs. the likelihood of delayed sowing of crops in the upcoming season and. Nevertheless. registered a surge of 57. Services sector imports stood at $1. as 100 health centres have been damaged.6 M in 1st 2 months of CFY against $60. Services sector posted a deficit of $567 M in July-August of CFY as compared to $481 M in corresponding period of last FY. (Business Recorder – September 8.9. the ADB says in its annual flagship economic publication Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2010 Update released.40 B to municipal infrastructure as 43 towns have been affected with a loss of Rs. while in health sector the loss was estimated at Rs. travel services. Developing Asia’s robust recovery from the global crisis is gaining further momentum.4 M. damage to infrastructure.9 M in same period of last fiscal year.5. or $173. the economic impact will be heavily negative in the short-run.134. (Business Recorder – September 18. depicting an increase of $113 M.15 M in the corresponding period of last FY 2010.4 M in same period of last FY. compared to the same period of last year. Rs. The information showed that Pakistan exported food items worth $547 M during the two months against $425 M during the corresponding period of last year. due to extensive damage and reallocation of resources to cater to urgent needs. travel and government services. 2010) 18% rise in services sector deficit posted August of FY 2010-11 as compared to $1. However.600 units was estimated at Rs. reconstruction and rehabilitation activities will subsequently have a positive impact on the GDP.021. Total loss to the education on account of damage to 4.4 M as compared to $344. in the following season will create shortages of food and other commodities while 26 The flood-hit and food starved Pakistan exported 29% more food items during the last few months. to $171.000 houses.5 B following destruction 8. (Dawn – September 23.6 B. insurance.

5% from an earlier target of 4. The SBP in its monetary policy for FY 2011 projected inflation at 11 to 12% (higher than the federal government target of 9.5%). Pressures on the current account will also intensify in FY 2011. The statement said the recent catastrophic floods had serious implications for macroeconomic stability and growth prospects. widening the fiscal deficit from the targeted 4%. Revenue measures are more urgent in view of the massive reconstruction requirements. Flood-related damage and social safety net requirements will necessarily impact the expected deficit for FY 2011.” the SBP said. (The Nation – September 4. the SBP increased the discount rate to 13. because of fears of higher government borrowing and inflation and lower economic growth and revenue during the CFY. which could lift tax revenue by 20%. and water. therefore the Government and textile stakeholders should import cotton bales in time. 2010 to improve revenue. This update projects average inflation in FY 2011 at 13%. (Dawn – September 30.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments undermining farmers’ incomes. hydropower. taking outlays up from 3.5 M bales of cotton in the current fiscal year. Also. over the same period the previous year.4% in FY 2011. 2010) Export target linked with cotton bales import Sources in All Pakistan Textile Mills Association said that the country would face a shortfall of 4 to 4. The budget for FY 2011 also called for an aggressive 45% reduction in total subsidies. investment spending was reprioritized to secure more timely completion of key ongoing projects in the areas of transportation. Moreover.5%. 2010) Discount rate raised According to a Monetary Policy Statement issued.2% in July to August 2010. to be determined also by the absorptive capacity of the economy. relative to the budget posted for FY 2011. are expected to remain strong. The Government has fixed the annual textile export target at $ 14b for the CFY 2010-11 under the 5 years textile policy. Specific tax measures included in the FY 2011 budget. among other factors.5% of the GDP to 4. while the central bank will find it difficult to fully implement its earlier monetary stance in the present circumstances. If substantial grant aid is provided for relief.5%. Pakistan's exports to Malaysia recorded a healthy increase of 81% with exports of RM 352 M in the 1st 6 months of this year as compared to 27 . External support in response to floodrelated damage will contribute to higher increases in development spending with the magnitude of the increase for FY2011. it will be even more important to address trends that were troublesome for the FY 2010 outturn. include a 1% increase in the goods and services tax to 17%. the deterioration in the current account deficit may be limited to 4. Inflation. it will need to make substantial efforts to keep demand for credit from exacerbating inflation pressures. 2010) Export to Malaysia increased The SBP once again increased the policy interest rate by 50 bps. is expected to be higher than the eight percent forecast in April’s ADO 2010 Update. “Highly provisional estimates suggest that economic growth for FY11 could come down to 2.3% of the GDP. including a 67% reduction in allocations to cover electricity tariff differentials. which increased by 13. otherwise it would not be possible to achieve the annual textile export target set for the year 2010-11. as are improvements in revenue administration and collection. These lower subsidies would require efficiency measures that produce saving equivalent to the 30–40% increase in tariffs that would otherwise be required to meet cost recovery. Additional revenue measures are being formulated to generate revenue for relief and reconstruction. Flood-related expenditure will also alter the fiscal outcome. The FY 2011 budget targets a rise in federal government public sector development spending of about one third relative to the FY 2010 outturn. reforms to that tax from October 1. Still. The textile export showed a healthy growth of 23pc in the first month (July) of the current fiscal year. for the most part induced by supply-side constraints. In this context. workers’ remittances. (Daily Times – September 29. as it was recorded at $986 M in July 2010 against $802 M in the same month of 2009.

The USA fell two places to the 4th position. A senior official told Dawn that preliminary estimates suggest that about 22 categories in the food group and agriculture.80 from 5. According to Global Competitiveness Report. the bank said in a document. says a new study released. would be brought under the RGST net. Pakistan’s score declined this year to 5. (The Nation – September 22. by 15-17%. says the report. Hong Kong maintains the highest level of economic freedom worldwide with a score of 9. 2010) Services exports up 4. Switzerland retains the top overall ranking in the Global Competitiveness Report of 2010-2011. (Business Recorder – September 22. 2010) GST to cause price hike of 15-17% According to provisional statistics on services trade released by SBP. and yield about Rs. (Dawn – September 30.91pc The Asian Development Bank has released the 2nd tranche worth $200 M of its “second generation of capital market reforms programme” early this month to the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Statistics of Pakistan after the bank found status of covenants of the first tranche satisfactory. According to the latest data obtained from Malaysian Trade Development Authority (MARTRADE) by Pakistan High Commission in Kuala Lumpur. (Daily Times – September 10. which were currently exempted from general sales tax. According to details issued by the ADB. while only 35 (28. overtaken by Sweden (2nd) and Singapore (3rd). 2010) Trade finance programme The level of economic freedom in Pakistan dropped as its index ranking deteriorated to the 118th place from the 110th last year among 141 countries. stood at $305. released by the Alternate Solutions Institute. While this is a relatively modest decrease in numeric terms. exports of services on month-on-month basis. 88 (71. 2010) Release of $200m by ADB The World Economic Forum has revised downward the Pakistan’s global competitiveness ranking from 101 in the world to 123rd place among 139 nations.50 this year. Pakistan’s export earnings in services trade have slightly augmented by 4. it was sufficient to move Pakistan from 101st to 123rd place among 139 nations ranked by the WEF. building on key achievements made under the capital market development programme (CMDP) and financial (non-bank) markets and governance programme (FMGP). including food items. services exports saw an increase of $28 M in the overall volume of trade services exports largely on account of improvement in receipts under government services and higher proceeds from transportation business during the period under review.2 M from $313. 2010) Pakistan falls 22 places to 123 According to the Economic Freedom of the World: 2010 Annual Report.5%) recorded increase.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments RM 194 M in the corresponding period of 2009 with rice and onion being the biggest contributors. Of the 123 countries with economic freedom rankings dating back to 1980.1 M in the reported months of prevailing FY. depending on the tax rate to be decided by the federal government. 2010) Pakistan’s economic freedom ranking falls The withdrawal of exemptions under the proposed reformed general sales tax (RGST) early next month is estimated to increase prices of over 122 major categories. (The News – September 14.91% to $589 M during the 1st 2 months (July-August) of CFY compared to $561 M in the same period of last year.58 in 2009 to 3.05 out of 10. (Dawn – September 21.95 in 2009.150 B in additional revenue to the exchequer. In the same way. The Asian Development Bank has decided to stop or abandon problematic projects and divert up to 28 . Pakistan’s score dropped from 3. the rice made up more than half of the total exports with an export of RM 188 M compared to RM 46 M of last year registered a robust growth of 307%.5%) saw their rankings decrease. the reform programme envisaged a $400 M funding to support a second generation of capital market reforms.

Refinery sector profits experienced a slight breather as GRMs during the second quarter of 2010 recovered slightly. The E&P sector led the sector's earnings growth with a higher than expected growth of 49% on yearly basis in its profitability. while major decline was in portfolio investment. as compared to Rs. 2010) Corporate sector profitability The government will not impose any tax on any exportable good. mainly due to low portfolio investment. The central bank said that net foreign investment comprising foreign direct investment (FDI) and portfolio investment had continuously weakened and net foreign investment registered a decline of $181 M during the 1st 3 months (July-Sep) of FY 2010-11.3 M The corporate sector profitability continued to register an upward trend.5% during the period.132 B in the 2nd Q (April-June) of 2010. (Business Recorder – October 2. which includes KAPCO and HUBCO. 2010) IDB approves $772. recording a negative earnings growth of 24% during the 2nd Q of 2010.60. The financing was endorsed at the bank’s Board of Executive Directors meeting chaired by IDB President. PTCL's profitability fell to 26% during the 2nd Q of 2010 deteriorated mainly owing to exceptionally high marketing expenses incurred.5 B from these sources to launching rehabilitation projects in flood-affected areas. which are either slow-moving or problematic and could be shelved for a better cause. as its profits jumped 76% on yearly basis.2 M for Reconstruction & Upgrading of M39 29 . the bank has handed over a list of around 30 projects to the government. the power sector considering our sample. The Manila-based donor agency informed government officials of its decision. net foreign investment decreased to $455. (Business Recorder – October 16.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments $1. The financing includes $167. Fertiliser sector performed admirably during the 2nd Q of 2010 on the back of higher urea and DAP prices. Analyzing the banking sector's profitability based on sample of 9 banks.1 M during the 1st Q of the CFY as compared to $636.1 M in the same period of last FY 2009. compared to the corresponding period last year. According to statistics. said Federal Board of Revenue Chairman. rising by an impressive 34% in the 2nd Q of 2010. Islamic Development Bank has approved financing of new development projects worth $772. Lower cement prices due to disagreement in on pricing amongst manufacturers led to the downfall of the cement companies during the 2nd Q of 2010. FDI posted a decrease of 9. Despite robust furnace oil sales. According to sources. Auto sector's positive momentum continued in the 2nd Q of 2010.44. Despite the fact that KAPCO's profitability fell 8% in the 2nd Q of 2010. “Exporters should keep this in mind that all export will remain always zero-rated and there should be no confusion in this regard. 2010) Decline in foreign investment According to a research report of a team of analysts at JS Global Capital Limited the total profitability of the sample companies of the corporate sector has increased to Rs.741 B recorded in the corresponding period last year. (The Express Tribune – September 20.” he said. shown a 24% y-o-y growth in the 2nd Q of CY. registered a y-o-y growth of 14%. which stood at 67. (The Nation – October 6. 2010) Zero rated Export Net foreign investment posted a decline of 28% during the 1st Q of the CFY.3 M for its member states including Pakistan – and $90-M leasing for Uch II power expansion project. inventory losses and higher tax expense negatively affected oil marketing companies' performance. Textile analysis indicates notable earnings growth in the 2nd Q of 2010 for the textile sector at large.5%. With current decline. He said that with a view to promote exports and encourage exporters in this regard no tax would be imposed on any export good.

OCAC index posted 5. Most of the trade concessions will be on textile exports. Federal Bureau of Statistics reported. slippers and truffles will be among 900 M euros ($1.04%.bed linen . $15.3 B) in Pakistani goods allowed into the European Union duty-free from next year under EU plans for trade assistance to the flood-hit country.17 M during the same corresponding period of the last FY.69% coke 18.09% respectively. Quality Improvement of Semarang State University Project . 2010) LSM up 3.73 M plus $6.5% 3. though there will be no tariff cuts on Pakistan's main product . Ministry of Industries index registered a 1.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments road in Surkhandarya region – Uzbekistan.27% furnace oil 1. Production of paper & board was higher by 22. $25. During the month of July 2010-11. The growth was seen in all the three – OCAC. In September 2010. $80 M for Algadarif Water Supply Project – Sudan. grant for Integrated Community Driven Development Phase-II Project – Indonesia.39%. In parallel.5% over the same period last FY.31% refrigerators 38.26 percent.13 M plus $13.09% lubricating oil 9.29% jeeps & cars 45.82% soda ash 12.40 M loan for Development.23% diesel oil 24.29% and 32.67%.86%. The production of blended tea was down 8. which otherwise remained under stress throughout the past fiscal when it recorded big falls in its production. production of tractors was higher by 15. In Food group. The move is meant to help Pakistan recover from devastating floods and maintain political stability.05% in the 1st month of CFY.64 M installment sale for Construction and Equipping of new Dental Care Project .8 M or 13. an amount of $922.because of EU industry opposition. (Daily Times – October 1. Production of cotton yarn and cotton cloth dropped 12. up 14.49% high-speed diesel 8. Islamabad has agreed to take back illegal migrants returned by EU states. (Business Recorder – October 12.12 M received in the same month last year.18%. In automobile sector. The production of buses was down 41." EU trade chief told reporters. $136 M plus $10 M (under terms and conditions of Jeddah Declaration) plus $6 M Loan plus $45 M T. production of TV sets was up 26.646 B was received in the first quarter (JulySeptember) of the CFY. as compared with $806. The breakup of different sectors shows that in petroleum sector. The monthly average remittances for the July-September 2010 period comes to $882.91 M installment sale plus $3.10 M as compared to $777.05% respectively. vegetable oil production moved up 2.05% whereas production of deep freezers and air conditioners was down 18.09% LCVs 29.12% and motorcycles 12.83% and pig iron 1. "This proposal will offer a real boost to Pakistan's economic recovery.36% wheat & grain milling 6. unveiled will suspend tariffs on 75 types of Pakistani-made goods which account for about 27% of exports to the EU.63% and glass plates & sheets 13. motor spirits production rose 11. The scheme. In electronics goods.01%. which indicated an across-the-board recovery in this sector.94 M. The plan 30 Large Scale Manufacturing was up .61%. 2010) Remittances up 13. $140 M for Padma Multipurpose Bridge Project – Bangladesh.77% LPG 6. signaling the improving conditions in this key sector of the economy. The production of jet fuel oil decreased 7.. showing an increase of $314. registering an increase of 13.5%. while at the same time taking into account sensitivities of EU industries.46% growth and provincial BoS index was up 5.05 % in CFY Jeans.06 M was sent home by overseas Pakistanis.38% or $115.40% cooking oil 20.Indonesia.06% kerosene oil 20.94% and 3.56% and solvent naphtha 41.Turkmenistan. (Daily Times – October 7. 2010) Major trade boost Remittances sent home by overseas Pakistanis continued to show a rising trend as an amount of $2. Production of cement was down 4.05% starch & its products 17. Ministry of Industries & Provincial Bureau of Statistics – indexes of LSM.64% etc. boosting sales by about 100 M euros.87%.66% trucks 14.A.

has started construction in Sunder Industrial Estate (SIE) on a five-acre plot recently allotted to them. Sources told that the phenomenon of flight of capital has once again appeared on the economic scene of the country mainly because of exchange rate depreciation. it was Rs. The total amount of $831 M for this agreement is divided as follows: Social Sector Health $130. (Business Recorder – October 1. the European Parliament and members of the World Trade Organisation.6. and KPK $65.2 B Trading volumes at National Commodity Exchange Limited (NCEL) show a growth of 654% in the 1st Q of FY 2010-11. EU officials said they hope for full approval by January. 2010) Over $100B flew out The British Oxygen. these countries are new destinations and safe heavens for the investors due to providing many initiatives and exemptions for the investors with regard to investment and regulatory environment. total volume was more than Rs.76 B. a noted multinational group manufacturing industrial and medical gases all over the world including India.25 B and average daily volume was more than Rs. The allocation of $831 M is part of the more than $1 B in development assistance funds which US will provide to USAID programmes in Pakistan this year.711.51.957. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.000. including India. and will include monitoring to ensure exporters from other states do not try to smuggle their wares into Europe via Pakistan to avoid duties. chairman NCEL said. slowdown in FDI. "We will implement our assistance in the most open. he said. After Dubai.820. US sign $831 M partnership agreement programmes in key sectors. Ambassador. During the first quarter (July-Sept) of FY 2010-11 NCEL’s total traded volume increased to Rs.31. Currently.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments foresees suspending tariffs for up to three years.264.1 B – each of them with record highs. generating the employment opportunities to nearly 2. Stabilization and Humanitarian Assistance FATA $111. the investors seem unwilling to invest here and they have been transferring their assets and capital to foreign countries since the beginning of this year. Singapore and Hong Kong. US Co-ordinator for Economic and Development Assistance said that the agreement was an important element in the implementation of the Kerry-LugarBerman Bill.000 workers.000.000." said Ambassador. Education $179. he added.74 B. Economic Growth. It must be approved by EU governments. Sources said despite record-high remittances and large foreign exchange aid flow.156. transparent and accountable manner. Agriculture $56. which compete with Pakistan for textile sales to Europe.425. During September 2010.493. (The Nation – October 13. (Daily Times – October 09.762. 2010) NCEL grows 654% in Q1 have witnessed above $100 B capital outflow from the country in the 1st half of current calendar year 2010 amid fragile economy and lack of investment opportunities. This group is investing over Rs. Canada and Indonesia through various channels. Bangladesh. high external debt and political instability. (Business Recorder – October 8. 31 The local capital and money markets US and Pakistan signed a five-year partnership agreement under which $831 M will be utilised on various . and reluctance of domestic and foreign investors to invest into the equity and real estate markets. Total volume in the corresponding quarter of last year was Rs. Economic Opportunity $144.87 B and in the previous quarter (Apr-June 2010).454. While addressing the signing ceremony. “This represents a growth of 654% and 63% respectively”. Malaysia and Kuwait the said amount of foreign exchange is being transferred to Bangladesh. so that the people of Pakistan and of the US know where the money is going. 2010) Pakistan.825. Energy $44.712.2 B. 2010) Investment of Rs.

2010) Exports of services sector grew by 32 .186 B as on June 30. chemicals and defense.043 billion in July-August (2009-10) to $1.7. in which outstanding amount was Rs. Overall services exports were recorded at $589.85 B compared with $3.156 B during the same the 1st 2 months of CY.83 percent by going up from $1.78 B. (industrial gases). the Federal Bureau of Statistics said. the EFS outstanding amount declined to Rs. The services trade deficit during the period under review increased by 17. The country's trade deficit for the first three-months of the 2010/11 FY was $3.14 B in the year-ago period.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments This was stated by a spokesperson of Punjab Industrial Estates talking to a group of Journalists here. On the other hand. 2010) Increase in Services exports 4.8 B. but grew by 5% when compared to the same quarter of last year 2009. The spokesperson added that this multinational group would deal in industrial gases.78% when compared to the deficit of the corresponding period of last year.193 B in March 2010. it will meet the significant and emerging needs in the metal processing. It is worthwhile to mention that this multinational company has over 53000 employees world over. compared with $2. 2010) September trade deficit at $1. as compared to preceding quarter. Through its core business. against $1.745 M during July-August (2009-10). The rising mark-up rate of EFS may be a major reason of decline in financing as the following the directives of IMF to rationalize the mark-up rates under the EFS. the data revealed.87% during the 1st 2 months of the CFY against the same period of last year.16 B Pakistan's trade deficit widened to $1. (Business Recorder – October 10.089 M in July-August (2010-11) against exports of $561.50 B a year ago. 2010 as compared to Rs.41 B in September last year. EFS witnessed a decline of some 4%. (Daily Times – October 20. construction. 2010. manufacturing / fabrication. data provided by Federal Bureau of Statistics reveals. healthcare and welding products. 2010) Export financing declined Table: RISK & OPPORTUNITY TRENDS (Based on Current Developments) SECTOR Textile Oil Power / Energy Sugar Cement / Construction / Steel Automotive Telecommunication Other Industries Agriculture Micro Business & SME Financial Services Regulatory Macro Environment * Up Down No Change RISK OPPORTUNITY Financing under Export Finance Scheme for export promotion witnessed a decline of Rs. service imports into the country also grew by 10.177 B. during the quarter under review.186 B at the end of June. SBP is gradually increasing the mark up rates.61 B in September this year. At the end of June 2010. or Rs. (The Nation – October 9. Imports were worth $2.12 B in the first half of 2010. from its peak of Rs. Exports stood at $1. health care petro chemicals industries etc. (Business Recorder – October 13.198 B in December 2009 to Rs.16 B in September from $911 M in September last year. According to SBP.

And that too is likely to happen once the next set of crises that are in the works have run their course and resulted in a global deflation (and in some places stagflation) of historical proportions. uncertainty and nervousness in the global marketplace. Suffice to say that within these scenarios are embedded considerable threats as well as enormous opportunities for growth and strengthening. The global economy is highly unlikely to return to a sustainable path of normalcy anytime soon. has waned. and unprecedented. and set off global domino triggered by the next acute financial crises. by Dr. its …Two years after the 2008 bailout. they’re market makers and confidence builders. Simon Johnson. (followed by Turkey. These developing scenarios have been clubbed under the following heads: • • • (Prospects of) Global Deflation. The much orchestrated “recovery”. in support of the case that the worst is yet to come. based on new extracts from a wide array of credible and reputable publications. however. So keeping in mind the gravity. economically GLOBAL DEFLATION IMF ADMITS THAT THE WEST IS STUCK IN NEAR DEPRESSION Telegraph. Japan.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments and geo-politically. create economic and political strife and lead to radically new geo-political realities. The appetite for massive new sovereign debt for the next set of bailouts is fast reaching a breaking point. There is growing evidence. and analytics. Point in case is the specter of the recent Greek default. of the current global situation. ACCELERATING GLOBAL RISKS – SPECIAL EXCERPTS We continue to be in the midst of an unprecedented global. 2010 • If you strip away the political correctness. Russia. (Outlook for a) US-sovereign debt crises US Dollar-Euro crises & the rise of an alternative reserve currency (Consequent or Concurrent to the Debt Crises) Rapid strategic divergence primarily between US on the one hand. This is Economics 101 and the writing is on all the walls. crises. Chapter Three of the IMF's World Economic Outlook more or less condemns Southern Europe to death by slow suffocation and leaves little doubt that fiscal tightening will trap North Europe. Ellen Brown September 18. TIGHTENING THE NOOSE ON CREDIT SPELLS DISASTER Global Research. and China. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard October 3. a case is being made. the ex Chief Economist for IMF offers an insightful explanation: most (global) economists aren’t forecasters any longer. TRAPPED IN THE SPIRAL OF BASEL III. in favor of this perspective. The pied pipers. Brazil) on the other hand A new US driven mid-east war targeting Iran The “Af-Pak” theater and the US/NATO “end game” economy and the whole array of industries. Many are. that would fundamentally start to alter the global power equations. courtesy of unprecedented bailouts. As a result there is widespread. and support. for the key developing scenarios that were highlighted as key risks in our Outlook 2009-10 (of August 2009). It didn’t. prone to contend that the “crises” ended sometime in 2009. And there is ample proof. Britain and America in slump for a long time. and uniqueness. 2010 • • All of these scenarios are work-in process and have deep and profound implications for Pakistan. financial and economic. the hallmark 33 . in this month’s Tracker. the economy continues to struggle with a lack of credit. if you will. Yet most forecasters seem to lose sight of this rather obvious reality.

who warned: “The plunge in M3 [the largest measure of the money supply] has no precedent since the Great Depression. apparently.2 trillion that it will then spend to help goose economic growth. ranging from the wonks at the libertarian Cato Institute to liberal Nobel-winner Joe Stiglitz." Slate.S. like bonds—will probably pick up long-term Treasury debt. WHY MOST ECONOMISTS ARE NOT HOPEFUL ABOUT "QUANTITATIVE EASING. are skeptical. Credit is issued by banks and is the source of virtually all money today. Housing sales are down. 34 . a move many analysts saw as a precursor to more easing…. so it is trying to convince investors to invest and banks to lend more. the Fed—which purchases only government-backed assets. Retail sales are down. There is also the risk that the Fed spooks investors. The Fed cannot just buy up goods and services.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments of recessions and depressions. By Annie Lowrey October 20. The dominant reason for this is that regulators across the world are pressing banks to raise capital asset ratios and to shrink their risk assets.Some policymakers worry that more easing could fuel market imbalances or sow the seeds of skyhigh inflation ahead. Even Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke sounds uncertain. and they're in no rush to spend. so workers get laid off and businesses shut down. there is insufficient money to buy goods or pay salaries. So. businesses and policymakers agree. 2010 How much of a boost to the U. a forklift—then the stores and companies that make and sell that stuff would hire more workers. creating more economic activity. September 21. If only people and companies would buy more stuff. This is why the US is not recovering properly. the Fed is using its license to print money. economy's biggest problem. "Monetary policymaking in an era of low inflation has not proved to be entirely straightforward. is widespread lack of demand. despite massive “quantitative easing” (essentially money-printing) by the Federal Reserve.’ he said. an office park. A growth rate of 1. Maybe we’re not in a double-dip but we might as well be in one. former executive director at the IMF and now dean of IESE Business School in Madrid. By Robert Reich. in a vicious spiral of debt and depression.The problem is that the strategy is indirect. When credit is not available. and just like that (or almost)—economic growth…. Commercial real estate is in trouble. the theory goes—a car. who would then spend more money. Fiscal policy is deadlocked. WHY NO AMOUNT OF STIMULUS MONEY WILL BE ENOUGH Salon. The money supply has continued to shrink in 2010 at an alarming rate.” Ambrose Evans-Pritchard quoted Professor Tim Congdon from International Monetary Research." he sighed in a speech earlier this month." Essentially. And many prominent economists. the markets expect the Fed to announce that it has decided to create somewhere between $500 billion and $1. though.6 percent means even higher unemployment ahead. recovery could another trillion The U. The strategy has been termed "QE2" because it is the second time the Fed has used this arcane monetary policy tool…. 2010 dollars or two buy? That's a tricky question for the Federal Reserve…At the Fed's August meeting it decided to reinvest maturing mortgage-debt in Treasuries to keep its balance sheet steady. On Nov. 3.” FED MULLS TRILLION-DOLLAR POLICY QUESTION CNBC .S. is monetary policy…. Consumer confidence is down. said the (new Basel) rules could hamper the fragile recovery. Growth this slow is the equivalent of heading downward relative to the growth needed to get us out of the hole we’re in….” Juan Jose Toribio.Every indicator suggests third-quarter growth will be as slow if not slower than in the second quarter.September 20. In an article in The Financial Times titled “US Money Supply Plunges at 1930s Pace as Obama Eyes Fresh Stimulus. Rather than buying space in office parks or forklifts. “‘These are regulations and burdens on bank results that only make sense in times of monetary and credit expansion.So the Fed is turning to a policy known as "quantitative easing. 2010 Consumers are 70 percent of the economy. …We are still trapped in that spiral today.

which is certainly a positive. Jones. central bankers are utilizing their next option—currency intervention…. deficit as a percentage of GDP. interest rates were slashed by central banks in reaction to the credit crisis of 2008. despite their divergent credit ratings. will the United States be able to repay its debt and." Now. if so. Greece: 13. Specifically. they ballooned their balance sheets with massive bond purchases in what euphemistically was called "quantitative easing. the advantage in this race to the bottom. But it can’t run on its own because consumers have reached the end of their ropes. In this instance. the United States appears to do better than Greece. their QE has had far less than the expected impact. our policymakers may have to implement policies designed to narrow this funding gap. Say the White House and Ben Bernanke got everything they wanted to boost the economy. the main weapon in their arsenal. and the United States. Greece: 115.6%). the United States actually has a worse ratio than Greece…Specifically. but if we include the debt of government sponsored entities. Forsyth September 17. In general. in this case Greece.the key ratios from which we use to analyze a nation appear very similar between the United States and Greece. we are actually most concerned with the risk related to future repayment. DEBT AS % OF REVENUE: US: 358.Having the world's reserve currency gives the U. Despite this. Then.1%. After three decades of flat wages during which almost all the gains of growth have gone to the very top.4%. At some point these boosts would have to end and the economy would have to be able to run on its own. 2010 First. on what terms? On two of the ratios. as it relates to the United States. even if fiscal and monetary policy weren’t deadlocked. is it expected that the nation will be running future deficits. SOVEREIGN & US DEBT CRISES SHOULD US GOVERNMENT DEBT BE RATED JUNK? Fortune.6%.5% (including GSE debt: 121. Having run out of conventional options of lowering short-term interest rates and getting less from their relatively unconventional tool of buying bonds to bring down longterm rates. which require incremental debt funding? If so. currency risk.1%. typically known as austerity measures…. DEFICIT AS % OF GDP: US: 10. Greece: 312. government has not taken any aggressive austerity measures to attempt 35 . the owner of a bond is subject to many risks: interest rate risk.2%. Moreover. and so forth. the middle class no longer has the buying power to keep the economy going…. which we consider a 1-time expenditure. By Daryl G. economies at or near zero percent. with short-term interest rates in most …Typically. September 3. inflationary risks. DEBT AS % OF GDP: US: 86.S. central banks have run out of basis points. 2010 CENTRAL BANKS EMBRACE RISKY CURRENCY GAMBIT Barron’s (WSJ). the key ratios are: debt as percentage of GDP. we’d still face the same conundrum.Anyone who thinks China will get us out of this fix and make up for the shortfall in demand is blind to reality. and debt as a percentage of revenue. with projected deficits for at least the next fifty years. But the destruction of the world's reserve currency threatens to end the Era of Globalization… The most newsworthy nation to currently be rated junk status is Greece…. spending for the first 10 months of the government's fiscal year is up an astonishing 10.(however) United States has been running a deficit for 22 straight months.S. or GSEs. and therefore pays higher yields to the owners of the bonds to make up for the risk. a bond receives junk status due to its increased risk of default. We've outlined a comparative analysis between a typical junk-rated sovereign issues.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Ultimately. When normalizing for TARP.4%. By Randall W. the U. duration risk. Specifically.

future deficits should shrink and debt balances eventually decline. 2010 CHINA'S CREDIT RATING AGENCY DAGONG DOWNGRADES U. DEBT RATING The Washington Times. as part of a symposium cosponsored by the IMF. (Yes) very different view of the strength of U. "The Western rating agencies are politicized and highly ideological.and cost sides -. To add insult to injury.The result of the actions in Europe are that. debt is worth heeding because it influences the thinking of the Chinese government and those in charge of investing surplus Chinese capital. in theory.still give the United States a AAA credit rating.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments to narrow the current and projected deficits. deficits will expand for decades.” Volcker is right that the mortgage market has become a subsidiary 36 .Dagong Global Credit Rating . under our current course.S. the opinions of the Chinese matter whether we like them or not. The company boasts of more than 500 employees.reducing government expenditures -.to get their fiscal houses in order…. This summer. including more than 200 analysts with master's degrees or doctorates and 50 with postdoctorates. U. October 3. like the mortgage market which only happens to be the most important part of our capital markets [and has] become a subsidiary of the U. While Americans still tend to regard U.lower than that of 11 other countries (including China. but let's be clear about one thing: Dagong is not a chump outfit. By James A. the dominant credit agency in China. outlook to be "negative. Treasury securities.S. As long as China remains the No. He said: “The financial system is broken. But there's a newcomer in the credit-rating game ." If for no other reason.S. So.S. 2010 The big three credit-rating agencies that totally missed the meltdown of the subprime mortgage market Moody's. finances. government. We could use that term in late 2008.S. which share an oligopoly enforced by government fiat." Dagong gave our debt a mere AA ." Chairman Guan Jianzhong told the Financial Times in July.S. it rated the sovereign debt of 50 nations making up 90 percent of the world's economy. government debt be downgraded to junk status? If we simply look at the ratios and the future outlook. In contrast. VOLCKER: "THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS BROKEN" Global Research. …We can debate forever whether the U. and I think it’s fair to still use the term unfortunately. The Chinese finance ministry has directed the company to "participate in the construction of [the] Asian bond market. Treasuries as the "safest investment in the world. Dagong's appraisal of U. and they do not adhere to objective standards. Bacon September 2. 1 owner of U.which has a Paul Volcker (ex Federal Reserve Chairman) spoke at the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank on September 23rd. agencies. should U.S. Beijing-headquartered Dagong.S. is pushing into international markets.S. Standard & Poor's and Fitch .increasing taxes -. agencies employ more analytical rigor in the rating of their sovereign debt than Dagong. which it awarded an AA+). of contributing to the 2007-08 financial crisis by applying the coveted AAA rating to loads of junk subprime mortgage debt." Dagong has set off something of a hissy fit in the credit-rating world. the firm declared the U.S. The company also accused U. In contrast. most European nations have taken aggressive actions on both the revenue -. the answer is quite obvious. We know that parts of it are absolutely broken.S.

. Basel III is pure spin and its timing was to assuage the deep-seated fears that there are no solutions in sight to save the fiat money system and fractional reserve banking. Dozens of federal and state agencies are investigating. It’s anyone’s guess what they might turn up…. the people in charge of running them have no way to know if that is true. there would not be any need for Basel III regulations…. Banks were borrowing so much and so recklessly to play at the global casino that when the bets went sour.S.. By John Gittelsohn and Jody Shenn Oct 21. one of the lessons the public should have learned is that the leaders of these companies often have no idea what’s going on inside them.” BANKS FACE A TWO-FRONT WAR ON MORTGAGES. and the bailouts.” The biggest U. Reading the commentaries on Basel III posted to various renowned websites and financial publications. 2010 Shoddy mortgage lending has led bankers into a two-front war. While federal regulators and state attorneys general have focused on flawed foreclosures. The reality is these companies are so big and unmanageable. as the subprime mortgage crisis began to spiral.and it is a no brainer to conclude that the banking crisis (if we are lucky) may be “resolved” by 2015 but it is most likely that it can be only resolved by 2017/2018 .The banks have only themselves to blame for the fix they’re in.mortgage records and foreclosure proceedings are out there waiting to be unearthed.The simple truth is that as long as the derivative casino is still running and banks are allowed to continue their off balance sheet activities. Three years ago.“It’s troubling that the people who caused the problem have walked away and left everybody else to fight over who gets stuck with the tab. This is an express admission that all banks would require such a long transition 37 The global Too Big To Fail banks are so precarious that literally anything can trigger a collapse in the coming months. but they missed (or . We may be witnessing the same phenomenon again. a bigger threat may be the cost to buy back faulty loans that banks bundled into securities…. the implementation of which will be delayed till 2017 and some till 2019. FORECLOSURES Bloomberg.. bond insurers and private investors….” Eggert said in a telephone interview.3 trillion remain. collapsed. by Matthias Chang September 20. nothing will be resolved. There’s no excuse this time for anyone to be surprised. of which $1. “It’s like a massive game of dine and dash. In fact the banks are all insolvent. Global Research. By Jonathan Weil October 20.S. homeowners challenging the right to foreclose and mortgage-bond investors demanding refunds that could approach $200 billion. The major global banks are all undercapitalized and this was all too apparent when Lehman Bros.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments of Uncle Sam. mortgage lenders and servicers say they’re putting the foreclosure mess behind them. pitting them against U. How can the ultimate capital requirement of 8 percent be adequate when leverage under Basel III is still allowed at the astronomical rate of 33:1?.…If the banks were at all adequately capitalized and the central bankers were prevented from manipulations. and that it never was a major problem. …Volcker also said: “I don't think anyone doubts that the underlying problem in the markets is the too big to fail syndrome. The aggrieved bondholders include governmentcontrolled firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. And it is ironic that government-owned GSEs Freddie and Fannie are shareholders of MERS one of the main sources of mortgage fraud in the country. they were staring at a black-hole in the trillions. The problem was compounded when the central bankers…turned a blind eye to how bankers defined what constituted “capital” so as to circumvent the need to maintain the capital ratio. 2010 BANKS CLUELESS ON FORECLOSURE MESS SEVERITY Bloomberg. 2010 deliberately misled) the underlying message of the proposals.The biggest risks for banks may be loans packaged into mortgage-backed securities during the housing bubble. One thing that remains unknowable is how many flawed home.. BASEL III: THE GLOBAL BANKS AT THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPICE..

Then. September 2010 Ireland is around US$2 trillion. Portugal. the combined sovereign debt of Greece. It is my view that Basel III is pure spin and is intended to convey the impression that the central bankers and regulators have things under control. AND SOON American Enterprise Institute. EURO WILL UNRAVEL. as the recession deepens and unemployment rises with no end in sight. Spain. …At this moment. and Ireland. By Desmond Lachman.Time Line? Between now and anytime in 2011. All of a sudden. Portugal. After all. hoodwinking the public and sovereign creditors that all is well. …European policymakers fully understand that a default in any peripheral eurozone country would likely trigger contagion to the other peripheral members. At some point. I cannot give a precise time-line as to how long the FED and the global central banks can prolong the confidence game..At the latest. There is little reason to expect a 38 The outbreak of a sovereign-debt crisis in the euro zone’s peripheral economies has been among the more important developments in the global economy in 2010. Sadly. The more immediate threat to the continuation of the eurozone in its present form is the possible loss of political willingness in Europe's periphery to continue hewing to IMFstyle austerity measures. the consequences will be ugly and there will be massive social upheavals across the globe. Such intensification will affect Europe's already-troubled banking system. This is essentially what happened in Argentina in 2001 after several years of painful and not very fruitful austerity measures. seriously threatening both the European and the global economic recovery. some entities may start to get real nervous and unload the treasuries. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that the French banks are particularly exposed to the troubles in the peripheral countries.The eurozone's sovereign-debt crisis casts a pall over today's alreadyfragile global economic outlook. which is rather optimistic for the projection implies that the patient may be able to recover. and . …. the tipping point is reached and all hell breaks loose! . Spain. Such deepening will undermine their public finances by eroding their tax bases and will raise questions about their ability to service their sovereign debt. since the recessions of the European peripheral countries will likely deepen considerably in the year ahead as they attempt to undertake major fiscal adjustment programs without the benefit of currency depreciations. since they have lent the equivalent of 37 percent of France's GDP to those countries. To use an analogy. The first indication that the game is up is when US treasuries are increasingly purchased by the FED to make up for the shortfalls by foreign creditors and to finance the ballooning US deficits. this crisis will likely intensify in the months ahead as markets increasingly focus on the intractable solvency and competitiveness issues confronting countries like Greece.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments period to comply with the new requirements! The stark reality is that the Too Big To Fail Banks do not have the ability and or the means to raise capital at this critical juncture. which in turn will call into question the health of the European banking system. the banking patient will be in Intensive Care until 2017.. and the FED steps in to shore up treasuries. When confidence in banks evaporates for whatever reasons. and a major part of that debt sits on the European banks' balance sheets. They also understand that a series of defaults in the eurozone's periphery would have devastating consequences for the European banking system. 2012. serious questions may arise in the periphery as to whether these countries would not be better served by restructuring their debt and exiting the euro.

whose economic imbalances are far greater than Argentina's were. in a bid to diversify. "Once a reserve currency's value becomes unstable.45 TRILLION OF RESERVES STILL HEAVY IN DOLLARS Telegraph. said in a commentary on the exchange’s website today. The Chinese Government holds the largest stockpile of currency reserves at $2. Multilateralism – with a more prominent role for emerging market countries – is essential now to prevent competitive currency debauchery by China and the US from blowing up the system. labour groups seek strong action against the undervalued renminbi. China’s takes the form of not letting its currency strengthen (which makes the recent monetary tightening deflationary for others)." she added. Domestically. deficiencies and systemic risks in the current international currency system. and has raised its holdings of South Korean bonds. By Angela Monaghan September 3. But US companies are ambivalent because capital is mobile and can escape the effects of the undervaluation. AMERICA CANNOT WIN THE CURRENCY WARS ALONE Financial Times. warned that depreciation was a risk for the foreign exchange reserves held by developing countries. By Arvind Subramanian October 20 2010 US CURRENCY CRISES DOLLAR CRISES . the chief executive officer of Hong Kong’s stock exchange.59 trillion). China has signalled a shift away from dollar assets in recent months. Chinese threats of dumping US Treasury bonds are perhaps overstated. "A diversified international currency system will be more conducive to international economic and financial stability." she wrote in an article that appeared in the latest issue of China Finance. and 3pc in yen. 5pc in pounds. "The outbreak and spread of the global financial crisis has highlighted the inherent How ironic that the world’s reserve currency issuer (the US) and its longterm rival to that status (China) are competing to nearly debauch their own currencies? America’s behaviour – more effect than intent – takes the form of quantitative easing. Why would they take action that would result in the very outcome – dollar decline – that China has worked to avoid? But other retaliatory options could hurt. a vice governor with the People's Bank of China. America is divided. there will be quite large depreciation risks for assets.AN ALTERNATIVE RESERVE CURRENCY (Consequent or Concurrent to the Debt Crises) CHINA FEARS DEPRECIATION OF $2. HONG KONG EXCHANGE HEAD SAYS Bloomberg News September 20. Until now the allocation of China's foreign exchange reserves was considered a state secret. The report was published in official newspaper the China Securities Journal and confirmed analysts' estimates that about two-thirds of the reserves are invested in dollars. internal and external. At a time of high unemployment. It has sharply increased its net purchases of Japanese debt. calling for greater crossborder use of the yuan." she said.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments different outcome in the eurozone's peripheral countries. It could withhold co-operation on North Korea and Iran. China could leverage its economic status as a large buyer of goods and services (commercial and defense) to hurt American businesses and jobs. 2010 The external problem is China’s possible retaliation.45 trillion (£1. 26pc in euros.US unilateralism runs into two difficulties.Charles Li. 2010 China’s yuan will gradually become a reserve currency…. 39 . Separately Hu Xiaolian. YUAN WILL BECOME RESERVE CURRENCY. a central bank magazine. …. with 65pc held in dollars.

folks… The Chinese are taking steps to become the next reserve currency… And when that happens. …“America has to adjust. when the sterling was no longer the world’s reserve currency… Don’t blame the Chinese. things here in the US will change drastically… Just ask anyone who lived in the UK after WWII. Berkeley. Only this summer. Indeed. either… The Chinese are only doing this to protect themselves from all their exposure to the dollar. 2010 …. Africa and beyond. "There are 40 . like bubbles. October 19.Along with China's growing economic power comes an inevitable corollary: China's eventual emergence as a political and military power wielding its influence from East Asia to the Pacific. the Middle East. "It would be disastrous for progressives to provide fodder for the military-industrial complex by demonizing China. by Barry Eichengreen. CHINA IN THE DRIVER'S SEAT The Nation. Argentina. To be sure.. 2010 STRATEGIC DIVERGENCE . there can be no doubt that the People’s Republic of China will become one of the dominant global powers (soon). policy terms. etc. it could even emerge as the global power. by Chuck Butler October 10.US VS CHINA / RUSSIA / OTHERS CHINA AS A SUPERPOWER Korea Times. By Joschka Fischer Germany’s foreign minister and vice chancellor from 1998 until 2005. corporate scandals.. Uncertainty about whether the European Union will hold together could limit the use of the euro. euro. And. it has a way to go before its currency is attractive as a vehicle for foreign investment and holding reserves. The US has brought this on with all its deficit spending. Belarus. the Obama administration started laying bricks in a Great Wall of Containment around China by mending ties with a brutal Indonesian special forces unit and taking sides against China in a potentially dangerous dispute over Beijing's claim to a string of islands in the South China Sea.China was gaining a wider acceptance of their currency and removing the dollar from trading agreements… Well.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments SWIMMING AGAINST THE MASTER CURRENCY CURRENT Sydney Morning Herald . where there is room for just one full-fledged international currency. October 4. and reserve currency in coming years. thus excluding the Given its rapid and successful development. only use their currencies in the trade. Shrinking Planet. although China is aggressively promoting international use of the yuan in trade settlements. It's hard to imagine a US politician making the case that Washington should pull back from its overextended posture in Asia and the Pacific or cede an expanded presence to China. settlement currency. the Indian Ocean. And you could sprinkle in protectionism measures and a host of other things that have built up against the dollar in the past decade. Let’s see now… China has signed up almost all of Asia. which one?. professor of economics at the University of California. Ty showed me a story from The Wall Street Journal about how Turkey and China had signed a trade agreement that would.the US dollar. Willingness to hold the US dollar may be undercut by concern with America's twin fiscal and external deficits. 2010 dollar. Brazil and now Turkey… All of these countries only use their currencies in trade. CHINESE YUAN: NEXT WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY? The Daily Reckoning. despite the massive problems that the country is confronting. author of Rising Powers." says Michael Klare. China will attempt to protect its domestic transformation by securing resources and access to foreign markets. Robert Dreyfuss September 2. from now on. and no longer need dollars…Let me make certain that you understand what’s happening." Few would argue that the rise of China has world-altering significance…. The only question is.. 2010 THE competition for reserve-currency status is conventionally portrayed as a winner-take-all game." But America doesn't adjust well. and yuan will share the roles of invoicing currency. … In foreign- "We have to recognize that China is the first real economic competitor that has ever threatened America's standing as the global economic superpower. all three currencies have their critics.

" says Orville Schell. but they have set in motion unforeseen moves by all the regional players. despite an array of promising advances over the past decade.S. the issue of Taiwan is a flash point. Turkey reestablished the Caliphate era visa-free tradition with Albania. India. fresh from a resounding constitutional referendum win by the AKP. A senior U. Jordan. China's Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday Beijing had invited the IAEA to "exercise safeguards and oversight of this project. Afghans and Iraqis floundering. September 22. and to influence it. but it's our own financial. Oct 22. China may not seek approval of Nuclear Suppliers Group Barack Obama's upcoming trip to India provides an opportunity to jumpstart progress toward defining a true US-India strategic partnership… TURKEY AND RUSSIA DEFY AMERICA'S IMPERIAL DESIGN IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND CENTRAL ASIA Al-Ahram Weekly. the relationship between Washington and New Delhi is falling short of its full potential. …As part of a dynamic diplomatic outreach under the Justice and Development Party (AKP). which revealed plans to build a one-gigawatt nuclear power plant in Pakistan on Monday. The comments by Thomas D'Agostino. …CNNC is completing a second civilian nuclear reactor in Pakistan’s Chashma and plans to build two more. Reuters. Eric Walberg October 1. Twelve years later.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments very powerful interests in Washington who want to set us on a path of confrontation. and if relations between Beijing and Washington spiral downward. President . "We need to find ways to accommodate China. a conflagration between the two nuclear powers could erupt over the Chinese island. 2010 China’s largest nuclear power company. has set targets to invest $117.6 billion in nuclear projects by 2020. 2010 The new Ottomans and the new Byzantines are poised for an intercept as the US stumbles in the current Great Game. then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee asserted that India and the United States were "natural allies in the quest for a better future for the world in the 21st century". or even peaceable. by Richard Fontaine. And it's not a foregone conclusion that it will be easy. …"It isn't just China's rise. 2010 ATOM BODY SHOULD ADDRESS CHINA-PAKISTAN DEAL--U. political and cultural collapse that is cause for even more consternation. came a day after China indicated it may see no need to seek approval from the NSG.S." REJUVENATING US-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP Times of India. official suggested on Wednesday the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) should address Chinese plans to build two new reactors in Pakistan. some of whose members have voiced qualms about the plan to build two new reactors at Pakistan's Chasma nuclear energy complex. In February Turkish Culture and Tourism Minister Ertugrul Gunay offered to do likewise with Egypt." In particular. Lebanon.S. A news report quoted CNNC vice president Qiu Jiangang saying that ‘both sides are in discussions over CNNC exporting a one-gigawatt nuclear plant to Pakistan’. LEAVES INDIA IN SHADE Hindustan Times September 21. U. There is “a great new plan of creating a Middle East Union as a regional equivalent of the European Union” with Turkey. Not only are the wars against the Palestinians. The empire faces a resurgent Turkey. 41 In 1998.. which is tectonic. one of the few countries outside a global antinuclear weapons pact. The neocon plan to transform the Middle East and Central Asia into a pliant client of the US empire and its onlydemocracy-in-the-Middle-East is now facing a very different playing field. writes Israel Shamir.S." CHINA EXPANDS NUKE PLANS. Under Secretary for Nuclear Security. China’s civilian nuclear investments in Pakistan have raised strategic concerns in the US and India. 2010 China-Pakistan nuclear ties worry U. Libya and Syria last year.

Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments Turkey also established a strategic partnership with Russia during the past two years. so to speak. including the construction of new pipelines and nuclear energy facilities. most recently. For Russia. TURKEY-CHINA MILITARY DRILL REVEALS DEEPENING TIES. which has historically been the main obstacle in Turkey-China relations…. His previous book. In a delicious irony. since it concurrently acquires the leverage to compel the West to negotiate with it. Medvedev's visit to China underlines emphatically that Moscow will be loath to allow the Russia-China strategic partnership to be eroded by its reset with the US. just as the latter has been doing with Russia. WIDENING REACH World Politics Review. Looking at it another way. IS RUSSIA PLAYING THE "CHINA CARD"? Asia Times. At that time. not the artificial one imposed over the past 150 years by the British and now US empires…. the growing strategic partnership with China enhances The news that Turkey and China had organized a joint military exercise at the huge Konya airbase in Turkey's central Anatolian region last month came as a surprise to many. strengthening its partnership with China gains it more strategic space. was made 42 . The US reset with Russia already has an unobtrusive objective of incrementally eroding the Russia-China strategic understanding so as to isolate China. there is immense geopolitical significance to the fact that Russia has appeared by China's side over the current tensions in the AsiaPacific region involving Japan. 2010 Russia's capacity to withstand Western pressures. Its defiance of Israel after the Israeli attack on the Peace Flotilla trying to break the siege of Gaza in June made it the darling of the Arab world. invasions by the US and Israel in the Middle East and Eurasia have not cowed the countries affected. CHINA: ENERGY SUPERPOWER Asia Times By Michael T Klare …What emerges is that the trajectory of Russia-China cooperation is beginning to substantially impact on the Western countries' core interests. With this in mind. where from the US angle the great game is no longer about driving a wedge between Russia and Western Europe. What all this adds up to is that Russia is practicing its own version of a reset with the US. it will be about offering incentives to Russia to hold it back from diversifying away from Western energy markets towards China. But safeguard it they will.. How Russia and China safeguard their growing strategic partnership from Western pressures will become clearer in the coming period. Syria and Iran…. the two countries signed several agreements (and)… Since then. by Mehmet Ozkan 22 Oct 2010 in the context of the current shifts taking place in global power politics?.ties between the two countries have been deepening since former Chinese President Jiang Zemin's visit to Turkey in April 2000 opened a new chapter in bilateral relations. Shrinking Planet. especially in Central Asia and Afghanistan. Blood and Oil. By M K Bhadrakumar October 2. including Russia. creating the basis for a new alignment of forces. Turkey has never officially supported the Uighur separatist movement.Turkey's bold move with Brazil to defuse the West's stand-off with Iran caught the world's imagination in May.. … What explains such a dramatic improvement in relations between Turkey and China? And how should this military exercise be understood Michael T Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College and the author. of Rising Powers. …. but emboldened them to work together. and the latter cannot but aspire to try to deflect it. Instead.This is the natural regional geopolitical logic. Turkey. with a visa-free regime and ambitious trade and investment plans (denominated in rubles and lira).This brings us to the threshold of a tantalizing prospect: is the great game over Caspian oil withering away? How relevant are US-Russia energy rivalries with the appearance of China in the equation as an energy guzzler that can keep buying all that Russia can supply? This is a new ball game.

This is exactly the path once taken by Washington . At this point. To catch Klare discussing China's energy superpowerdom on Timothy MacBain's latest TomCast audio interview. Although not competing with Washington when it comes to military aid. The idea that Beijing will acquiesce to the collapse of the Pyongyang regime and reunification under the aegis of South Korea is a discounted commodity. IS DISTRACTED. Angola. Tensions are also high on most fronts associated with China's attempt to reclaim what it sees as its rightful place. China's state-controlled energy firms have also forged "strategic partnerships" with counterpart enterprises in these countries and in some cases acquired the right to develop major oil deposits as well. not only in the South China Sea. RISING CHINA TESTS THE WATERS Asia Times. China called South Korea's bluff . to download it to your iPod. told the Wall Street Journal that China had overtaken the United States to become the world's number one energy consumer.com. watch China. Eager to ensure the reliability of the oil flow from these countries. At present. China will also become an ever more dominant international actor and so set the pace in shaping our global future.and the United States is ill-equipped to respond. 2010 Hu Jintao and Kim Jong-il in Jilin province explicitly placed China's Korean Peninsula eggs in the North's basket. the decisions China makes regarding its energy portfolio will have far-reaching consequences. … by becoming the world's leading energy consumer. Because energy is tied to so many aspects of the global economy. '10 Beijing views the South China Sea as a leading indicator of how the international community will respond to China's growing power and assertiveness. 2010 A long handshake between President The greatest geopolitical development 43 . Rarely has a simple press interview said more about the global power shifts taking place in our world. Kaplan September 26. the greater the risk of friction and conflict with the United States… CHINA MAKES ITS NORTH KOREA MOVE Asia Times. China obtains most of its imported oil from Saudi Arabia. click here or. Especially striking has been the way Beijing has sought to undercut US influence in Saudi Arabia and with other crucial Persian Gulf oil producers. Iran. promising to support Saudi aspirations without employing the human rights or pro-democracy rhetoric usually associated with American foreign policy. Peter Lee September 2. '10 Bristling over territorial disputes in the South China Sea fits American concerns that China is deliberately nudging the US out of East Asia at a time it is trying to reassert its primacy. Jingdong Yuan Aug 19. Kuwait. WHILE U. DEEP REASONS FOR CHINA AND US TO BRISTLE Asia Times. Abraham M Denmark and Daniel M Kliman Aug 19. and Venezuela. Beijing has established close ties with their leaders. China for the first time imported more Saudi oil than the US. in some cases providing them with significant economic and military assistance. CHINA DEVELOPS SEA POWER Washington Post. If you want to know which way the global wind is blowing (or the sun shining or the coal burning). a geopolitical shift of great significance given the history of USSaudi relations. Sudan. the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (IEA). An anemic international reaction will embolden Beijing. but elsewhere as well. That's the news for our energy future and for the future of greatpower politics on planet Earth.S. Beijing has been dispatching its top leaders to woo Riyadh. In 2009. here. Oman.and with some of the same countries. Kazakhstan. By Robert D. On July 20. and because doubts are growing about the future availability of oil and other vital fuels. The United States should insist on open access. Fatih Birol. only one thing is clear: the greater China's reliance on imported petroleum.bloodandoilmovie. Washington is already watching with anxiety. Russia.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments into a documentary film and is available at www. Libya.

China is building a far-flung trading network. China will be able to redirect its naval energies. at the northern end of the South China Sea….China has the world's second-largest naval service. the Korean Peninsula and northeastern China. China is building a blue water navy."…China seeks domination of the South China Sea to be the dominant power in much of the Eastern Hemisphere.… CHINA. In geopolitics there is one such event that should have us all thinking hard -. Washington Post.China is quietly incorporating Taiwan into its dominion. Forget genteel rows over the yuan's value -. Myanmar leader Senior General Than Shwe's visit to China last week won public support from Beijing for his government's planned national elections on November 7. We are paying in blood and treasure to stabilize Afghanistan while China is building transport and pipeline networks throughout Central Asia that will ultimately reach Kabul and the trillion dollars' worth of minerals lying underground. Consolidating and developing SinoMyanmar cooperation and friendship is our unswerving policy. By Clifford McCoy 16 Sep." WHEN NORTH KOREA FALLS . And with 90 percent of commercial goods worldwide still transported by ship. Hu was quoted on state television on September 8 IRAN . China considers it a "core interest. The geographical heart of America's hard-power competition with China will be the South China Sea. With that backing. 10 saying. MYANMAR REAFFIRM STRATEGIC VOWS Asia Times.When North Korea collapses. . a few years hence. . Sri Lanka.to the second island chain (Guam) and in the opposite direction. events that are unlikely but with the potential to cause major disruption. 2010 The most important lesson to have come out of the financial crisis is to worry about "black swans. That sea grants Beijing access to the Indian Ocean via the Strait of Malacca. The United States and others consider the South China Sea an international waterway. To wit. and thus to the entire arc of Islam. Myanmar's generals can now proceed unconcerned by Western criticism of the election process or the results…. We underestimate the importance of what is occurring between China and Taiwan. after only the United States…China's 66 submarines constitute roughly twice as many warships as the entire British Royal Navy…If our economy remains wobbly while China's continues to rise this will have repercussions for each nation's sea power.this is what could produce serious geopolitical instability. even as it is helping to fund and construct ports in Burma. that the United States cannot credibly defend Taiwan. this policy will not alter.. Once it becomes clear.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments that has occurred largely beneath the radar of our Middle East-focused media over the past decade has been the rise of Chinese sea power.the collapse of North Korea…. to the Indian Ocean.…these harbors will be visited by Chinese warships and will provide warehousing for Chinese consumer goods destined for the Middle East.A NEW MIDEAST WAR IN THE MAKING 44 . through which passes a third of all commercial maritime traffic worldwide and half of the hydrocarbons destined for Japan. Bangladesh and Pakistan. ultimately to be protected by its warships… America's preoccupation with the Middle East suits China perfectly.In an apparent snub to international opinion. in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's formulation.. "China pays a great deal of attention to relations with Myanmar.. by Fareed Zakaria October 18. sea control is critical. from East Africa to Southeast Asia." These are. it is easy to imagine chaos on the Korean peninsula that triggers a series of reactions from Beijing and Washington that are competing and hostile. No matter how the international situation changes.

When we consider the difficulties President Barack Obama had passing his health care legislation. 2010 We are a week away from the 2010 U. one option he has had is to appear powerful by focusing on foreign policy. even with powerful majorities in both houses. His choices are negotiation.000 U. and there are a host of other foreign issues. Afghanistan offers the least attractive venue. the president will have to begin his campaign.The Democrats will lose their ability to impose cloture in the Senate and thereby shut off debate. unless that success is a negotiated settlement with the Taliban. The large majority held by the Democrats will be gone. by George Friedman October 26. with 50. ranging from China's increasing assertiveness to Russia's resurgent power to the ongoing decline in military power of America's European allies. The first is that the country is focused on the economy and on domestic issues. Obama now has two options in terms of domestic strategy. If the domestic situation improves. many of which would resonate with at least some voters and allow Obama to be presidential in spite of weak political support. Obama appears vulnerable and the Republican nomination has become extremely valuable. Obama also has a third option. with the sole exception of Afghanistan…where he was assertive is unlikely to yield a major foreign policy success.S. There are two problems with Obama becoming a foreign policy president. they will still not have the votes to override presidential vetoes. midterm elections. Israeli-Palestinian talks are also faltering. Whether the Republicans take the House or the Senate is close to immaterial…. it is clear that he will not be able to push through any significant legislation without Republican agreement.S. cooperate with the Republicans and re-establish his image as a centrist. If it doesn't.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments WOULD A BEATEN OBAMA ATTACK IRAN? Stratfor/Real Clear Politics. when the president has been weak domestically. knowing that it will be voted down. he runs against Republican partisanship. and the Iranian issue wide open. The first is to continue to press his agenda. and party discipline will not be strong enough (it never is) to prevent some defections. There are a range of issues that need to be addressed at the presidential level. The outcome is already locked in. the Democrats will lose the ability to pass legislation at the will of the House Democratic leadership.The second problem is that his presidency and campaign have been based on the general principle of accommodation rather than confrontation in foreign affairs. they made the president quite powerful in foreign policy regardless of Congress…Historically. The second option is to abandon his agenda. For his part. it will cost him the election…. If he focuses on foreign policy and the U. Obama does not have much time to lose in reshaping his presidency. With the Iowa caucuses about 15 months away and the Republicans holding momentum. troops still there. Should the Republicans win an overwhelming victory in both houses next week. At the same time. …Given his low approval ratings. Whether they lose the House or not. economy does not improve by 2012. which is not particularly new territory. The Iraq war is far from stable. This was how the founders sought to avoid the tyranny of narrow majorities. The result will either be gridlock or a very different legislative agenda than we have seen in the first two years. 45 . if Obama's goal is to appear strong on national security while regaining the center. The war in Afghanistan is reaching a delicate negotiating state as reports of ongoing talks circulate. which is to shift his focus from domestic policy to foreign policy. …The international environment allows him to take a much more assertive stance than he has over the past two years.Interestingly. The founders created a system in which the president is inherently weak in domestic policy and able to take action only when his position in Congress is extremely strong. or continued war. he takes credit for it.S. A negotiated settlement will be portrayed by the Republicans as capitulation rather than triumph…. Both have political advantages and disadvantages and present an important strategic decision for Obama to make. which would reinforce his image as an accommodationist in foreign policy.

create a massive crisis with Pakistan. The Iranian Option: This leaves the obvious choice: Iran. The most obvious justification would be to claim that Iran is about to construct a nuclear device. Moreover. Coming from Obama. hurling troops at the enemy without a clear plan. The Republicans could not easily attack him. The issue is what he might have to do and what the risks would be. are hostile. of course. the situation in Iraq would improve if Iran were to be neutralized. Foreign policy presidents need to be successful. So far. Its nuclear facilities are in a number of places and Iran has had years to harden those facilities. and. particularly after the crackdown on the Green Movement. In addition. Nor would the claim be a lie. obviously. Obama's policy toward Iran has been to incrementally increase sanctions by building a weak coalition and allow the sanctions to create shifts in Iran's domestic political situation. as are the Chinese. Nothing could. no one would be in a position to challenge the claim. The Russians like the Iranians are a thorn in the American side. Destroying the facilities might take an extended air campaign and might even require the use of special operations units to verify battle damage and complete the mission. so a confrontation with Iran would require a deliberate shift in the U. He could appear reluctant to his base. anti-ship missile launchers would have to be attacked and Iranian air force and air defenses taken 46 . This is a cynical scenario. military action against Iran's naval forces would be needed to protect the oil routes through the Persian Gulf from small boat swarms and mines. but it would be extremely unlikely that such an effort would end well. Obama has avoided overt military action against Iran. given the situation in Afghanistan. He could. who are assumed to be more moderate and less inclined to pursue nuclear weapons. the one place he could do it would be Iran. The European. Many of the Democrats see Iran as a repressive violator of human rights. Obama would be forced to take action. second. First. Bush's. If Obama were to use foreign policy to enhance his political standing through decisive action. In the face of this assertion. hurt him more than an aggressive stance against Iran that failed to achieve its goals or turned into a military disaster for the United States. which would require a justification. but neither would have much choice should the United States deal with Iran quickly and effectively. The Israelis. Whether or not this is true would be immaterial. … destroying Iran's nuclear capability does not involve a one-day raid. which adds little to his political position… Obama could attempt to force an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Iran is the one issue on which the president could galvanize public opinion. and the psychology in Afghanistan could also shift. Defining what it means to almost possess nuclear weapons is nearly a metaphysical discussion. stance. the claim would confirm the views of the Republicans. but then would risk looking like Lyndon Johnson in 1967. which is unlikely…The problem with Israel and the Palestinians is that peace talks have a nasty tendency to end in chaos. The idea is to weaken President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and strengthen his enemies. The Europeans are hostile to Iran but want to avoid escalation. but that would require Hamas to change its position. Russian and Chinese situations are of great importance. There is little to be done in Iraq at the moment except delay the withdrawal of forces.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments He could deploy even more forces into Afghanistan. Obama's credibility in making the assertion would be much greater than George W. particularly Saudi Arabia. The Republicans have portrayed Obama as weak on combating militant Islamism. is afraid of Iran and wants the United States to do something more than provide $60 billion-worth of weapons over the next 10 years. nor is Iran without the ability to retaliate. but they are not conducive to dramatic acts. It requires merely a shift in definitions and assumptions. and achieve some positive results in relations with foreign governments. decisive to the rest. The Arabian Peninsula. while the Democrats would be hard-pressed to challenge him.S. unless it ends quickly and successfully and without a disruption of oil supplies. after all. given that Obama does not have the 2003 weapons-ofmass-destruction debacle to deal with and has the advantage of not having made such a claim before. but it can be aligned with reasonable concerns.

This would not solve the problem of the rest of Iran's conventional forces. Obama will be paralyzed on domestic policies by this election. But neither sanctions nor diplomacy can wholly obviate the dreaded possibility of military confrontation unless something fundamental changes soon at the heart of Iran's fundamentalist regime. He can craft a re-election campaign blaming the Republicans for gridlock. Ryan Jones September 21. former Mossad chief Danny Yatom (said)…“If the modern air forces led by the United States mobilize their capabilities it is possible. charging that he refused to adjust to the electorate's wishes. calm the Saudis and demonstrate to the Europeans American capability and will. U. A successful campaign would ease the U. It could change the dynamics of the Middle East and it could be a military failure. Obama needs to be seen as an effective commander in chief and Iran is the logical target. and there is no credible threat of force.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments out. A campaign against Iran would have its risks. Such an attack would have substantial advantages and very real dangers. Simon Tisdall 21 October 2010 fundamentally change its ways. And so the dread juggernaut of direct. the Republicans. or can be forced. which would represent a threat to the region.S. and so Israel must retain the right to self-defense. It can go either way. First. it seems the world has accepted a nuclear-armed Iran as a foregone conclusion. ISRAEL: NO CHOICE BUT TO ATTACK IRAN Israel Today. a shift to a foreign policy emphasis makes sense. so these forces would have to be attacked and reduced as well. at least to delay it for years to come. sending the global economy into a deep recession on soaring oil prices.”…But Europe and the Obama Administration have signaled they have absolutely no intention of using force to stop Iran. Speaking at a counter-terrorism conference at the Interdisciplinary Center in Herzliya on Sunday. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned US President Barack Obama that history will judge his administration largely on 47 Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s provocative posturing in Lebanon last week showed Iran is unlikely to change its ways.S. to . All of these are possible risks. the Iranian regime would be stronger politically. and. according to STRATFOR's thinking. Iran could launch a terrorist campaign and attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. at least for a while. … If the campaign were successful. Ahmadinejad's provocative posturing in Lebanon last week made that plain enough. AN IRAN CONFLICT IS DRAWING CLOSER The Guardian.there is little or no evidence so far that Iran's top leadership is willing. can blame him for the gridlock. if not to completely remove the threat. it would be an extended air war lasting an unknown number of months. …I am arguing the following. An attack on Iran would not be an invasion. withdrawal from Iraq. These two developments may be connected.” Yatom told his audience. …. In an interview with Fox News on Monday. This has its advantages and disadvantages. Sanctions are having almost no impact.….given the domestic gridlock that appears to be in the offing. The only obvious way to achieve success that would have a positive effect on the U. strategic position is to attack Iran. the risks outweigh the rewards. It would also cause the Russians and Chinese to become very thoughtful. “Figure out for yourselves what that means. 2010 Israeli officials are becoming increasingly frustrated by the international community’s footdragging regarding Iran’s defiant nuclear program. physical confrontation rolls ever closer.S. Like Yugoslavia in 1999. The US is quietly ratcheting up economic and financial pressure on Iran amid signs that talks about Tehran's suspect nuclear program could resume next month. It could also create a civil war in Iraq. but eviscerated militarily. intelligence could have missed the fact that the Iranians already have a deliverable nuclear weapon. The other option for Obama is to look for triumph in foreign policy where he has a weak hand. For most Israelis. nor would it be a short war.

almost inadvertent. significant incentives. The United States should demand that Pakistan shut down all sanctuaries and military support programs for insurgents or else we will carry out operations against those insurgent havens. Washington must offer Islamabad a stark choice between positive incentives and negative consequences. AFGHANISTAN — AND THE REST OF THE WORLD. Zalmay Khalilzad. Nonetheless. 2010 …The U. 2010 48 .S. Pakistan has long played a vital positive part — and a troublingly negative one. the United States should offer to mediate disputes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. By Zalmay Khalilzad. for example. and depending on what is in all those secret underground facilities Iran is building. are sufficiently strong to preclude such an outcome. the U.’S DISORGANIZED RETREAT: OUT OF IRAQ. …Without inducing a change in Pakistan’s posture. Both are undesirable options. help establish a trade corridor from Pakistan into Central Asia. with or without Pakistani consent. …To induce quicker and more significant changes. we should present clear. To deal with an interruption of our supply lines to Afghanistan. high-level talks to end the war — cutting through this Gordian knot has become more urgent and more difficult than ever before. or accepting a major setback in Afghanistan and in the surrounding region. this aggressive approach would require the United States to think through a series of likely Pakistani responses. and the American people will not miss their 65-year total immersion in the world any more than the world will be heartbroken to be less dominated by the Americans. is conducting a more or less orderly retreat. from the Philippines). at the cost of many young American lives and many billions of dollars. US ENDGAME IN AFGHANISTAN: THE EVIL OF THREE LESSERS Al-Jazeerah.S. strategic withdrawals can be elegant (de Gaulle’s from Algeria. GET TOUGH ON PAKISTAN New York Times. not a serious plan of systematically handing over security matters to carefully prepared indigenous forces. National Review. particularly the country’s security organs. Pakistan’s institutions. it could be much sooner. They are confident that if they continue to frustrate our military and political strategy — even actively impede reconciliation between Kabul and Taliban groups willing to make peace — pro-Pakistani forces will have the upper hand in Afghanistan after the United States departs. With Pakistani civilian and military leaders meeting with Obama administration officials this week in Washington — and with The Times report on Tuesday that Afghan and Taliban leaders are holding direct. we must stockpile supplies and start bringing in more material through the northern supply routes and via air. Barak said that it would be no more than a year or two before Iran fields a nuclear weapon. or disastrous (Napoleon’s from Russia). Iraq and the United Nations during the Bush administration. by Eric Walberg September 20. October 19. the USSR’s from Poland). 2010 THE “AF-PAK” THEATER – THE END GAME THE U. …Pakistan gives not only sanctuary but also support to the Afghan Taliban…What’s more. At the same time. and ensure that Pakistan’s adversaries do not use Afghanistan’s territory to support insurgents in Pakistani Baluchistan.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments whether or not Iran went nuclear on his watch. Pakistani military leaders believe that our current surge will be the last push before we begin a face-saving troop drawdown next July. In exchange for demonstrable Pakistani cooperation. Arguments that such pressure would cause Pakistan to disintegrate are overstated. was the ambassador to Afghanistan. Sensible. the United States will have to choose between fighting a longer and bloodier war in Afghanistan than is necessary. In the region and in the wider war against terrorism. Conrad Black October 21. disorganized (Britain’s from India and Palestine. feckless retreat.S. of unplanned. But it all has the appearance and feel of a default position. unpunctuated with military disasters.

will continue India will have to learn to live with the new Russian-Pakistani 49 . Afghanistan and Pakistan will not fare any better.. Its second option is to let the regional governments take over in stabilizing the current regime. Vladimir Radyuhin September 9. 2010 China has shown interest in the construction of two railway lines—one in Pakistan via the Gilgit-Baltistan region and the other in Afghanistan. however. That is the policy of the Obama Administration. This.. but for the purpose of ending the war in Vietnam.…. would require a revolution in US thinking: mend fences between it and Iran. but. if very poor and devastated country. Iran has offered to help do this. It holds the fate of this US endgame in its hands. NATO EXPANDS AFGHAN WAR INTO PAKISTAN Global Research. Its third option is a lame compromise between the above. will meet the external trade requirements of Chinese-controlled Xinjiang and other regions of Western China." and "if this enemy effort succeeds. however inaccurate. …The total value of the Chinese investment in the copper mine alone will be almost three times the total value of the Indian investments in all projects in Afghanistan…. Cambodia would become a vast enemy staging area and a springboard for attacks on South Vietnam…The course he ordered was to "go to the heart of the trouble. offering to cede control of the south to the Taliban while keeping control of the north. the proposed line in Afghanistan will meet the requirements of a copper mine which China is developing in the Aynak area in Afghanistan.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments The US has three choices at this point: the easy one is to just pull out and leave the Taliban to disarm the Western-created warlord militias and to work with the less odious members of the Karzai regime to create a viable regime in a peaceful.S. While the railway line through GilgitBaltistan. and soon thereafter departed Southeast Asia in defeat. 2010 …NATO will continue to launch lethal attacks inside Pakistan against whichever targets it sees fit and will proffer neither warnings nor apologies.. CHANGING FACE OF RUSSIAPAKISTAN TIES The Hindu. 2010 to escalate attacks with Hellfire missiles against whomever it chooses." Washington indeed expanded the Vietnam War into Cambodia. with what disastrous effects the world is fully aware. mediated by Pakistan and the Saudis.…US is finally talking to the Taliban commanders. absolutely.Forty years ago Obama's predecessor Richard Nixon began his speech announcing the expansion of the Vietnam War into Cambodia…He claimed that "enemy sanctuaries" in Cambodia "endanger the lives of Americans who are in Vietnam." In language that has been heard again lately in Washington and Brussels with nothing but the place names changed . And that means cleaning out major North Vietnamese and Vietcong occupied territories…The practical application of the policy was that "attacks are being launched this week to clean out major enemy sanctuaries on the Cambodian-Vietnam border. By B Raman September 27th. By Rick Rozoff September 28. handing over Pashtun areas to the Taliban and arming the other ethnic groups to defend themselves. Chinese role in Afghanistan—yes.Nixon claimed: "We take this action not for the purpose of expanding the war into Cambodia. The US support for the Chinese policy will be to the detriment of India. ultimately extending up to Gwadar on the Mekran coast. Council for Foreign Relations President Richard Haass suggests partitioning Afghanistan. anecdotal and self-interested the reports upon which they are based prove to be. The Chinese policy in Afghanistan has two objectives— -to enhance its strategic presence and influence and to checkmate the Indian strategic presence and influence.Indian role in Afghanistan—yes. The U. This is a recipe for unending civil war too horrible to contemplate. including Sirajuddin Haqqani. CHINA: CHECKMATING INDIA IN AFGHANISTAN Indian Defense Review. leaving vast stretches of Vietnam and Cambodia in ruins.

is pushing for a shake-up of the elected government…The military. September 2010. 2010 The Pakistani military. all bets are off. has made clear it is not eager to take over the government. but Indian presence there looks doubtful now in the context of the emerging Russia-AfghanistanPakistan-Tajikistan axis. "No one will be able to stop the response and consequences. both to balance growing Chinese influence in and partnership with Pakistan. preoccupied by a war against militants and reluctant to assume direct responsibility for the economic crisis. Obama had said toward the start of his fall 2009 Afghanistan-Pakistan strategy review that the more pressing U. chief of the Pakistani army and the most powerful figure in the country…. The plan called for bombing about 150 identified terrorist camps in a brutal. blocked its launch…. the Americans met privately with Gen. a dominant military and an intelligence service that sponsored terrorist groups…. Kayani had the power to deliver. just a statement of political fact. The effects and implications will extend beyond the 12% of the Pakistani population who have been directly affected by the floods and will impinge upon the policy objectives of the US-led coalition engaged in Afghanistan…. GENERALS IN PAKISTAN PUSH FOR A SHAKE-UP OF GOVERNMENT New York Times. a nuclear power with a fragile civilian government. The Obama administration had a "retribution" plan. 2010 (Floods) have also exposed with yet greater clarity Pakistan's political and institutional shortcomings. Ashfaq Kayani. No. India and Russia had planned to jointly use the Ayni airfield. who could deliver nothing." Afterward. just as Russia has taken India's entanglement with the U.It is also possible that the political shock induced by the floods and a successful reconstruction effort entailing abundant job opportunities will stimulate new thinking and bring about hitherto-elusive beneficial structural change …Fears about Pakistan had been driving President Obama's national security team for more than a year. in its stride…. military officials and politicians said. 50 . He had other concerns….In another breakthrough for Pakistan.Jones said he was alarmed that success in Afghanistan was tied to what the Pakistanis would or would not do. By Bob Woodward September 29. the SUV had blown up in Times Square. There might be no way to save the strategic partnership. one of the most sensitive and secretive of all military contingencies. angered by the inept handling of the country’s devastating floods and alarmed by a collapse of the economy. interests were really in Pakistan. HOW PAKISTAN CAN END THE AFGHAN WAR September 28. Obama would be forced to do things that Pakistan would not like. 'WE NEED TO MAKE CLEAR . Jones told Zardari." Jones did not give specifics about what he meant. Mr. "If that happens.S. THE CANCER IS IN PAKISTAN' Washington Post. God forbid. The bottom line was depressing: This had been a charade….S. But this can by no means be taken for granted. Underscoring Jones's point. 2010 Stratfor. both Jones and Panetta said. which India helped to renovate.If. till now. as it has many times before.Kayani would not budge much. By George Friedman …Pakistan is an American ally which the United States needs. punishing attack inside Pakistan.The Sochi summit also dimmed India's hopes of gaining a strategic foothold in Tajikistan. By Jane Perlez September 28. They were talking with Zardari. Panetta said. "This is not a threat.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments bonhomie. The two countries agreed to set up the joint commission 10 years ago but Moscow has." the security adviser said. but he refused to do much. Should a future attempt be successful.The United States was getting nowhere fast with these guys. PAKISTAN'S FLOODS: BROADER IMPLICATIONS International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). we wouldn't be having this conversation. Nobody could tell him otherwise. Medvedev in Sochi gave the green signal for an inaugural meeting of the Russian-Pakistani Inter-Governmental Commission on Trade and Economic and Scientific-Technological Cooperation in Islamabad this month. . in Pakistan. .

something the United States could benefit from. the U. Herman Kahn. 2010 Could Indian withdrawal from Kashmir initiate the Dulles nightmare of a domino effect? Back in the bad old days of the Cold War. It needs the United States over the long term to balance against India. this is an ambitious goal.S. forays into Pakistan that are destabilizing the regime.S. the Taliban wants to run Afghanistan. regional strategies in Central Asia and in a not-toodistant future Mr. Bhadrakumar September 20. interests. The Intifada unfolding in the Valley has diverse moorings and the killing of innocents may well turn out to be a sideshow in the 20-year deadly game that is far from played out. coined the phrase ‘thinking the 51 . It needs an end to U.S.Most important. Politicising the crisis will be a most irresponsible thing to do.S.…Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has described the rebellion as 'India's gravest security threat’. has pledged that 'the problem of left-wing extremism [will] be overcome in the next three years'. The United States has no strong national interest in how Afghanistan is run so long as it does not support and espouse transnational jihadism. few measures have been put in place that will enable the government to fulfil its pledge to overcome the problem of left-wing extremism within three years. M. His government. Pakistan has every reason to play this role. 2010 The political reality is that Pakistan has escalated its rhetoric on Kashmir. However. However. would make little difference in the fight against transnational jihad. Meanwhile. The original goal of the war is irrelevant. The government's invitation to China to invest in the development of J&K indeed underscores our growing sense of awareness. Kayani will seek his pound of flesh on Kashmir. INDIA'S UNFOLDING INTIFADA IN KASHMIR The Hindu.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments and to contain India. and the current goal is rather difficult to take seriously. According to Chidambaram. We suspect that all sides are moving toward this end. the Dantewada massacre was a 'wake-up call' that emphasized the urgency of addressing the Maoist insurgency. under strong pressure to act decisively against the Maoists. And playing this role would enhance Pakistan's status in the Islamic world. whatever that would look like. Pakistan needs the United States for the same reason. K. The political reality is that Pakistan has escalated its rhetoric on Kashmir…. We need to carefully measure the timeline available to normalise the J&K situation. the United States needs a withdrawal that is not a defeat. Such a strategic shift is not without profound political complexity and difficulties. Therefore. India's long-running Maoist insurgency has increased in intensity in recent months. It must have a stable or relatively stable Afghanistan to secure its western frontier. too. Dr. KASHMIR: THINKING THE UNTHINKABLE (INDIA SHOULD GIVE KASHMIR TO PAKISTAN) The Hindu. But it needs its withdrawal to take place in a manner that strengthens its influence rather than weakens it. The United States isn't going to defeat the Taliban. Even a victory. but a defeat could harm U. A regime change in Srinagar is not the priority today.-Pakistan axis is pivotal for the U. and Pakistan can provide the cover for turning a retreat into a negotiated settlement. Vithal Rajan October 9. the heaviest of the backroom hawks of the Pentagon. INDIA'S MAOIST INSURGENCY International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) September 2010 The Intifada unfolding in the Valley has diverse moorings.

' Indians are not the leaders of Asia — the Chinese are. perhaps unjustly. the supply of which is crucial for our well-being. Indian rulers have yet to realize they are no longer in charge of ‘the jewel in the crown. because discontent against corrupt. India must be proactive in demanding an immediate international settlement of a problem created by Nehru. to regain if possible. cruelty. India's inveterate enemy? On the contrary. The government must cauterise the Kashmir wound. Would not letting Kashmir go give the palm to Pakistan.' and wish all Indians to go to the devil.Tracking Opportunity & Risk Related Developments unthinkable. tighten military spending. because the people there do not consider Let us ask another hard question. to help people raise themselves out of poverty. high-handedness. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF US CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONS (NOV 2010) . Hanging on to the great economic resource drain of Kashmir will only worsen the situation. themselves ‘Indians. and a bankrupt diplomatic policy. It has taken Great Britain 60 years to realize it is no longer the centre of an empire. modern standards of governance. the same result could be achieved by an undeclared economic war and arms race that would force the communists to scratch themselves out of the tournament. it might catastrophically weaken its real enemy…Whatever the final shape of the outcome. and the struggling middle classes. The answer clearly is a resounding ‘No'! There are no ‘resources' of any kind from Kashmir. it should not fritter away its resources on nuclear weapons. they are spread thinly everywhere and new partitions are a geographical impracticality. would it jeopardise the security of Indians? Not really. do Indians need Kashmir? By Indians. elitist. Would withdrawal increase militancy? Most probably. and non-democratic rule is widespread. If India wishes to be considered a good second to China. aircraft carriers. 52 Could Indian withdrawal from Kashmir initiate the Dulles nightmare of a domino effect. with all Indian Muslims rising up as one man to demand more partitions? While few Indian Muslims have any reason to thank the Indian state for the non-benign neglect they have received over 60 years. but that is the end result of poor governance. we mean the ordinary aamjanta of the poor.' meaning strategies for wiping out the Soviet Union with nukes. Ronald Reagan had a better idea. or Commonwealth Games. Luckily for all of us. The mountainous barrier between the Kashmir Valley and India is a better defensive line to guard than the present long untenable frontier of the Line of Control. and that is the real reason for their hegemonic control over the region. The American people are dependent on oil from the Middle East. not only among Muslims but across a wide section of the poor and middle-classes. If Indian troops are out of Kashmir. What will be lost along with Kashmir? An unreal and bloated sense of self-importance. Can we use similar hardline approaches to review the Kashmir imbroglio? The first question to ask is. Should we be there in Kashmir against all odds out of moral obligation. because the people of the Valley are dependent on our protection? ‘No'. India should use its scarce resources where they are most needed. is the answer once again. and strictly prevent any more human rights abuses. Indians have no such reason to retain control of Kashmir.

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