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**Jure Leskovec Andreas Krause Carlos Guestrin
**

Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University

Christos Faloutsos Jeanne VanBriesen Natalie Glance

Carnegie Mellon University Carnegie Mellon University Nielsen BuzzMetrics

ABSTRACT

Given a water distribution network, where should we place

sensors to quickly detect contaminants? Or, which blogs

should we read to avoid missing important stories?

These seemingly diﬀerent problems share common struc-

ture: Outbreak detection can be modeled as selecting nodes

(sensor locations, blogs) in a network, in order to detect the

spreading of a virus or information as quickly as possible. Figure 1: Spread of information between blogs.

We present a general methodology for near optimal sensor Each layer shows an information cascade. We want

placement in these and related problems. We demonstrate to pick few blogs that quickly capture most cascades.

that many realistic outbreak detection objectives (e.g., de-

tection likelihood, population aﬀected) exhibit the prop-

erty of “submodularity”. We exploit submodularity to de- cess spreading over this network, and we want to select a set

velop an eﬃcient algorithm that scales to large problems, of nodes to detect the process as eﬀectively as possible.

achieving near optimal placements, while being 700 times Many real-world problems can be modeled under this set-

faster than a simple greedy algorithm. We also derive on- ting. Consider a city water distribution network, delivering

line bounds on the quality of the placements obtained by water to households via pipes and junctions. Accidental or

any algorithm. Our algorithms and bounds also handle cases malicious intrusions can cause contaminants to spread over

where nodes (sensor locations, blogs) have diﬀerent costs. the network, and we want to select a few locations (pipe

We evaluate our approach on several large real-world prob- junctions) to install sensors, in order to detect these contam-

lems, including a model of a water distribution network from inations as quickly as possible. In August 2006, the Battle of

the EPA, and real blog data. The obtained sensor place- Water Sensor Networks (BWSN) [19] was organized as an in-

ments are provably near optimal, providing a constant frac- ternational challenge to ﬁnd the best sensor placements for a

tion of the optimal solution. We show that the approach real (but anonymized) metropolitan area water distribution

scales, achieving speedups and savings in storage of several network. As part of this paper, we present the approach we

orders of magnitude. We also show how the approach leads used in this competition. Typical epidemics scenarios also

to deeper insights in both applications, answering multicrite- ﬁt into this outbreak detection setting: We have a social net-

ria trade-oﬀ, cost-sensitivity and generalization questions. work of interactions between people, and we want to select a

small set of people to monitor, so that any disease outbreak

Categories and Subject Descriptors: F.2.2 Analysis of can be detected early, when very few people are infected.

Algorithms and Problem Complexity: Nonnumerical Algo- In the domain of weblogs (blogs), bloggers publish posts

rithms and Problems and use hyper-links to refer to other bloggers’ posts and

General Terms: Algorithms; Experimentation. content on the web. Each post is time stamped, so we can

Keywords: Graphs; Information cascades; Virus propaga- observe the spread of information on the “blogosphere”. In

tion; Sensor Placement; Submodular functions. this setting, we want to select a set of blogs to read (or re-

trieve) which are most up to date, i.e., catch (link to) most

of the stories that propagate over the blogosphere. Fig. 1

1. INTRODUCTION illustrates this setting. Each layer plots the propagation

We explore the general problem of detecting outbreaks in graph (also called information cascade [3]) of the informa-

networks, where we are given a network and a dynamic pro- tion. Circles correspond to blog posts, and all posts at the

same vertical column belong to the same blog. Edges indi-

cate the temporal ﬂow of information: the cascade starts at

some post (e.g., top-left circle of the top layer of Fig. 1) and

Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for then the information propagates recursively by other posts

personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are

not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies

linking to it. Our goal is to select a small set of blogs (two in

bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. To copy otherwise, to case of Fig. 1) which “catch” as many cascades (stories) as

republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific possible1 . A naive, intuitive solution would be to select the

permission and/or a fee. 1

KDD’07, August 12–15, 2007, San Jose, California, USA. In real-life multiple cascades can be on the same or similar

Copyright 2007 ACM 978-1-59593-609-7/07/0008 ...$5.00. story, but we still aim to detect as many as possible.

big, well-known blogs. However, these usually have a large

number of posts, and are time-consuming to read. We show,

that, perhaps counterintuitively, a more cost-eﬀective solu-

tion can be obtained, by reading smaller, but higher quality,

blogs, which our algorithm can ﬁnd.

There are several possible criteria one may want to opti-

mize in outbreak detection. For example, one criterion seeks

to minimize detection time (i.e., to know about a cascade as

soon as possible, or avoid spreading of contaminated water). Figure 2: Blogs have posts, and there are time

Similarly, another criterion seeks to minimize the population stamped links between the posts. The links point

aﬀected by an undetected outbreak (i.e., the number of blogs to the sources of information and the cascades grow

referring to the story we just missed, or the population con- (information spreads) in the reverse direction of the

suming the contamination we cannot detect). Optimizing edges. Reading only blog B6 captures all cascades,

these objective functions is NP-hard, so for large, real-world but late. B6 also has many posts, so by reading B1

problems, we cannot expect to ﬁnd the optimal solution. and B2 we detect cascades sooner.

In this paper, we show, that these and many other realis-

tic outbreak detection objectives are submodular, i.e., they the time diﬀerence between the source and destination post,

exhibit a diminishing returns property: Reading a blog (or e.g., post p41 linked p12 one day after p12 was published).

placing a sensor) when we have only read a few blogs pro- These outbreaks (e.g., information cascades) initiate from

vides more new information than reading it after we have a single node of the network (e.g., p11 , p12 and p31 ), and

read many blogs (placed many sensors). spread over the graph, such that the traversal of every edge

We show how we can exploit this submodularity prop- (s, t) ∈ E takes a certain amount of time (indicated by the

erty to eﬃciently obtain solutions which are provably close edge labels). As soon as the event reaches a selected node,

to the optimal solution. These guarantees are important in an alarm is triggered, e.g., selecting blog B6 , would detect

practice, since selecting nodes is expensive (reading blogs the cascades originating from post p11 , p12 and p31 , after 6,

is time-consuming, sensors have high cost), and we desire 6 and 2 timesteps after the start of the respective cascades.

solutions which are not too far from the optimal solution. Depending on which nodes we select, we achieve a certain

The main contributions of this paper are: placement score. Fig. 2 illustrates several criteria one may

• We show that many objective functions for detecting want to optimize. If we only want to detect as many stories

outbreaks in networks are submodular, including de- as possible, then reading just blog B6 is best. However, read-

tection time and population aﬀected in the blogosphere ing B1 would only miss one cascade (p31 ), but would detect

and water distribution monitoring problems. We show the other cascades immediately. In general, this placement

that our approach also generalizes work by [10] on se- score (representing, e.g., the fraction of detected cascades,

lecting nodes maximizing inﬂuence in a social network. or the population saved by placing a water quality sensor)

• We exploit the submodularity of the objective (e.g., is a set function R, mapping every placement A to a real

detection time) to develop an eﬃcient approximation number R(A) (our reward), which we intend to maximize.

algorithm, CELF, which achieves near-optimal place- Since sensors are expensive, we also associate a cost c(A)

ments (guaranteeing at least a constant fraction of the with every placement A, and require, that this cost does

optimal solution), providing a novel theoretical result not exceed a speciﬁed budget B which we can spend. For

for non-constant node cost functions. CELF is up to example, the cost of selecting a blog could be the number of

700 times faster than simple greedy algorithm. We posts in it (i.e., B1 has cost 2, while B6 has cost 6). In the

also derive novel online bounds on the quality of the water distribution setting, accessing certain locations in the

placements obtained by any algorithm. network might be more diﬃcult (expensive) than other loca-

• We extensively evaluate our methodology on the ap- tions. Also, we could have several types of sensors to choose

plications introduced above – water quality and blo- from, which vary in their quality (detection accuracy) and

gosphere monitoring. These are large real-world prob- cost. We associate a nonnegative cost c(s) with every sensor

lems, involving a model of a water distribution network s, and deﬁne the cost of placement A: c(A) = s∈A c(s).

from the EPA with millions of contamination scenar- Using this notion of reward and cost, our goal is to solve

ios, and real blog data with millions of posts. the optimization problem

• We show how the proposed methodology leads to deeper

insights in both applications, including multicriterion, max R(A) subject to c(A) ≤ B, (1)

A⊆V

cost-sensitivity analyses and generalization questions. where B is a budget we can spend for selecting the nodes.

**2. OUTBREAK DETECTION 2.2 Placement objectives
**

An event i ∈ I from set I of scenarios (e.g., cascades,

2.1 Problem statement contaminant introduction) originates from a node s ∈ V of

The water distribution and blogosphere monitoring prob- a network G = (V, E ), and spreads through the network, af-

lems, despite being very diﬀerent domains, share essential fecting other nodes (e.g., through citations, or ﬂow through

structure. In both problems, we want to select a subset A of pipes). Eventually, it reaches a monitored node s ∈ A ⊆ V

nodes (sensor locations, blogs) in a graph G = (V, E ), which (i.e., blogs we read, pipe junction we instrument with a sen-

detect outbreaks (spreading of a virus/information) quickly. sor), and gets detected. Depending on the time of detection

Fig. 2 presents an example of such a graph for blog net- t = T (i, s), and the impact on the network before the detec-

work. Each of the six blogs consists of a set of posts. Con- tion (e.g., the size of the cascades missed, or the population

nections between posts represent hyper-links, and labels show aﬀected by a contaminant), we incur penalty πi (t). The

penalty function πi (t) depends on the scenario. We discuss A ⊆ B ⊆ V. Hence, adding sensors can only decrease the

concrete examples of penalty functions below. Our goal is to incurred penalty. Thirdly, and most importantly, it satisﬁes

minimize the expected penalty over all possible scenarios i: the following intuitive diminishing returns property: If we

π(A) ≡ P (i)πi (T (i, A)), add a sensor to a small placement A, we improve our score

i at least as much, as if we add it to a larger placement B ⊇ A.

where, for a placement A ⊆ V, T (i, A) = mins∈A T (i, s) is More formally, we can prove that

the time until event i is detected by one of the sensors in A,

Theorem 1. For all placements A ⊆ B ⊆ V and sensors

and P is a (given) probability distribution over the events.

s ∈ V \ B, it holds that

We assume πi (t) to be monotonically nondecreasing in t,

i.e., we never prefer late detection if we can avoid it. We also R(A ∪ {s}) − R(A) ≥ R(B ∪ {s}) − R(B).

set T (i, ∅) = ∞, and set πi (∞) to some maximum penalty A set function R with this property is called submodular.

incurred for not detecting event i. We give the proof of Thm. 1 and all other theorems in [15].

Proposed alternative formulation. Instead of minimiz- Hence, both the blogosphere and water distribution mon-

ing the penalty π(A), we can consider the scenario speciﬁc itoring problems can be reduced to the problem of maxi-

penalty reduction Ri (A) = πi (∞) − πi (T (i, A)), and the ex- mizing a nondecreasing submodular function, subject to a

pected penalty reduction constraint on the budget we can spend for selecting nodes.

R(A) = P (i)Ri (A) = π(∅) − π(A), More generally, any objective function that can be viewed as

i an expected penalty reduction is submodular. Submodular-

describes the expected beneﬁt (reward) we get from placing ity of R will be the key property exploited by our algorithms.

the sensors. This alternative formulation has crucial prop-

erties which our method exploits, as described below. 2.4 Multicriterion optimization

Examples used in our experiments. Even though the In practical applications, such as the blogosphere and wa-

water distribution and blogosphere monitoring problems are ter distribution monitoring, we may want to simultaneously

very diﬀerent, similar placement objective scores make sense optimize multiple objectives. Then, each placement has a

for both applications. The detection time T (i, s) in the blog vector of scores, R(A) = (R1 (A), . . . , Rm (A)). Here, the

setting is the time diﬀerence in days, until blog s partici- situation can arise that two placements A1 and A2 are in-

pates in the cascade i, which we extract from the data. In comparable, e.g., R1 (A1 ) > R1 (A2 ), but R2 (A1 ) < R2 (A2 ).

the water network, T (i, s) is the time it takes for contam- So all we can hope for are Pareto-optimal solutions [4]. A

inated water to reach node s in scenario i (depending on placement A is called Pareto-optimal, if there does not exist

outbreak location and time). In both applications we con- another placement A such that Ri (A ) ≥ Ri (A) for all i,

sider the following objective functions (penalty reductions): and Rj (A ) > Rj (A) for some j (i.e., there is no placement

(a) Detection likelihood (DL): fraction of information cas- A which is at least as good as A in all objectives Ri , and

cades and contamination events detected by the selected strictly better in at least one objective Rj ).

nodes. Here, the penalty is πi (t) = 0, and πi (∞) = 1, One common approach for ﬁnding such Pareto-optimal

i.e., we do not incur any penalty if we detect the outbreak solutions is scalarization (c.f., [4]). Here, one picks posi-

in ﬁnite time, otherwise we incur penalty 1. tive weights λ 1 > 0, . . . , λm > 0, and optimizes the objec-

(b) Detection time (DT) measures the time passed from tive R(A) = i λi Ri (A). Any solution maximizing R(A)

outbreak till detection by one of the selected nodes. Hence, is guaranteed to be Pareto-optimal [4], and by varying the

πi (t) = min{t, Tmax }, where Tmax is the time horizon we weights λi , diﬀerent Pareto-optimal solutions can be ob-

consider (end of simulation / data set). tained. One might be concerned that, even if optimizing

(c) Population aﬀected (PA) by scenario (cascade, out- the individual objectives Ri is easy (i.e., can be approxi-

break). This criterion has diﬀerent interpretations for both mated well), optimizing the sum R = i λi Ri might be

applications. In the blog setting, the aﬀected population hard. However, submodularity is closed under nonnegative

measures the number of blogs involved in a cascade before linear combinations and thus the new scalarized objective

the detection. Here, πi (t) is the size of (number of blogs par- is submodular as well, and we can apply the algorithms we

ticipating in) cascade i at time t, and πi (∞) is the size of the develop in the following section.

cascade at the end of the data set. In the water distribution

application, the aﬀected population is the expected number 3. PROPOSED ALGORITHM

of people aﬀected by not (or late) detecting a contamination.

Maximizing submodular functions in general is NP-hard

Note, that optimizing each of the objectives can lead to

[11]. A commonly used heuristic in the simpler case, where

very diﬀerent solutions, hence we may want to simultane-

every node has equal cost (i.e., unit cost, c(s) = 1 for all

ously optimize all objectives at once. We deal with this

locations s) is the greedy algorithm, which starts with the

multicriterion optimization problem in Section 2.4.

empty placement A0 = ∅, and iteratively, in step k, adds

2.3 Properties of the placement objectives the location sk which maximizes the marginal gain

sk = argmax R(Ak−1 ∪ {s}) − R(Ak−1 ). (2)

The penalty reduction function2 R(A) has several impor- s∈V\Ak−1

tant and intuitive properties: Firstly, R(∅) = 0, i.e., we The algorithm stops, once it has selected B elements. Con-

do not reduce the penalty if we do not place any sensors. sidering the hardness of the problem, we might expect the

Secondly, R is nondecreasing, i.e., R(A) ≤ R(B) for all greedy algorithm to perform arbitrarily badly. However, in

2

The objective R is similar to one of the examples of the following we show that this is not the case.

submodular functions described by [17]. Our objective,

however, preserves additional problem structure (sparsity) 3.1 Bounds for the algorithm

which we exploit in our implementation, and which we cru- Unit cost case. Perhaps surprisingly – in the unit cost

cially depend on to solve large problem instances. case – the simple greedy algorithm is near-optimal:

Theorem 2 ([17]). If R is a submodular, nondecreas- is prohibitive in the applications we consider. In addition,

ing set function and R(∅) = 0, then the greedy algorithm in our case studies, we show that the solutions of CEF are

ﬁnds a set AG , such that R(AG ) ≥ (1−1/e) max|A|=B R(A). provably very close to the optimal score.

Hence, the greedy algorithm is guaranteed to ﬁnd a solution 3.2 Online bounds for any algorithm

which achieves at least a constant fraction (1−1/e) (≈ 63%)

of the optimal score. The penalty reduction R satisﬁes all The approximation guarantees of (1 − 1/e) and 12 (1 − 1/e)

requirements of Theorem 2, and hence the greedy algorithm in the unit- and non-constant cost cases are oﬄine, i.e., we

approximately solves the maximization problem Eq. (1). can state them in advance before running the actual algo-

Non-constant costs. What if the costs of the nodes are rithm. We can also use submodularity to acquire tight on-

not constant? It is easy to see that the simple greedy algo- line bounds on the performance of an arbitrary placement

rithm, which iteratively adds sensors using rule from Eq. (2) (not just the one obtained by the CEF algorithm).

until the budget is exhausted, can fail badly, since it is in- Theorem 4. For a placement A ⊆ V, and each s ∈ V \ A,

diﬀerent to the costs (i.e., a very expensive sensor providing

let δs = R(A ∪ {s}) − R(A). Let rs = δs /c(s), and let

reward r is preferred over a cheaper sensor providing reward s1 , . . . , sm be the sequence of locations

with rs in decreas-

k−1

r − ε. To avoid this issue, the greedy rule Eq. (2) can be ing order. Let k be such that C = c(si ) ≤ B and

k i=1

i=1 c(si ) > B. Let λ = (B − C)/c(sk ). Then

modiﬁed to take costs into account:

R(Ak−1 ∪ {s}) − R(Ak−1 )

sk = argmax , (3)

k−1

s∈V\Ak−1 c(s) max R(A) ≤ R(A) + δsi + λδsk . (4)

A,c(A)≤B

i.e., the greedy algorithm picks the element maximizing the i=1

beneﬁt/cost ratio. The algorithm stops once no element can Theorem 4 presents a way of computing how far any given

be added to the current set A without exceeding the budget. solution A (obtained using CEF or any other algorithm)

Unfortunately, this intuitive generalization of the greedy al- is from the optimal solution. This theorem can be readily

gorithm can perform arbitrarily worse than the optimal so- turned into an algorithm, as formalized in Algorithm 2.

lution. Consider the case where we have two locations, s1 We empirically show that this bound is much tighter than

and s2 , c(s1 ) = ε and c(s2 ) = B. Also assume we have only the bound 12 (1 − 1/e), which is roughly 31%.

one scenario i, and R({s1 }) = 2ε, and R({s2 }) = B. Now,

R(({s1 })−R(∅))/c(s1 ) = 2, and R(({s2 })−R(∅))/c(s2 ) = 1. 4. SCALING UP THE ALGORITHM

Hence the greedy algorithm would pick s1 . After selecting

s1 , we cannot aﬀord s2 anymore, and our total reward would 4.1 Speeding up function evaluations

be ε. However, the optimal solution would pick s2 , achieving Evaluating the penalty reductions R can be very expen-

total penalty reduction of B. As ε goes to 0, the performance sive. E.g., in the water distribution application, we need

of the greedy algorithm becomes arbitrarily bad. to run physical simulations, in order to estimate the eﬀect

However, the greedy algorithm can be improved to achieve of a contamination at a certain node. In the blog networks,

a constant factor approximation. This new algorithm, CEF we need to consider several millions of posts, which make up

(Cost-Eﬀective Forward selection), computes the solution the cascades. However, in both applications, most outbreaks

AGCB using the beneﬁt-cost greedy algorithm, using rule (3), are sparse, i.e., aﬀect only a small area of the network (c.f.,

and also computes the solution AGU C using the unit-cost [12, 16]), and hence are only detected by a small number

greedy algorithm (ignoring the costs), using rule (2). For of nodes. Hence, most nodes s do not reduce the penalty

both rules, CEF only considers elements which do not ex- incurred by an outbreak (i.e., Ri ({s}) = 0). Note, that

ceed the budget B. CEF then returns the solution with this sparsity is only present if we consider penalty reduc-

higher score. Even though both solutions can be arbitrarily tions. If for each sensor s ∈ V and scenario i ∈ I we store

bad, the following result shows that there is at least one of the actual penalty πi (s), the resulting representation is not

them which is not too far away from optimum, and hence sparse. Our implementation exploits this sparsity by repre-

CEF provides a constant factor approximation. senting the penalty function R as an inverted index 4 , which

Theorem 3. Let R be the a nondecreasing submodular allows fast lookup of the penalty reductions by sensor index

function with R(∅) = 0. Then s. By looking up all scenarios detected by all sensors in our

1 placement A, we can quickly compute the penalty reduction

max{R(AGCB ), R(AGU C )} ≥ (1 − 1/e) max R(A).

2 A,c(A)≤B R(A) = P (i) max Ri ({s}),

s∈A

Theorem 3 was proved by [11] for the special case of the i:i detected by A

Budgeted MAX-COVER problem3 , and here we prove this without having to scan the entire data set.

result for arbitrary nondecreasing submodular functions. The- The inverted index is the main data structure we use in

orem 3 states that the better solution of AGBC and AGU C our optimization algorithms. After the problem (water dis-

(which is returned by CEF) is at most a constant factor tribution network simulations, blog cascades) has been com-

1

2

(1 − 1/e) of the optimal solution. pressed into this structure, we use the same implementation

Note that the running time of CEF is O(B|V|) in the num- for optimizing sensor placements and computing bounds.

ber of possible locations |V| (if we consider a function eval- In the water distribution network application, exploiting

uation R(A) as atomic operation, and the lowest cost of a this sparsity allows us to ﬁt the set of all possible intrusions

node is constant). In [25], it was shown that even in the non- considered in the BWSN challenge in main memory (16 GB),

constant cost case, the approximation guarantee of (1 − 1/e) which leads to several orders of magnitude improvements in

can be achieved. However, their algorithm is Ω(B|V|4 ) in the the running time, since we can avoid hard-drive accesses.

size of possible locations |V| we need to select from, which 4

The index is inverted, since the data set facilitates the

3

In MAX-COVER, we pick from a collection of sets, such lookup by scenario index i (since we need to consider cas-

that the union of the picked sets is as large as possible. cades, or contamination simulations for each scenario).

Function:LazyForward(G = (V, E ),R,c,B,type) gorithm5 CELF (Cost-Eﬀective Lazy Forward selection). In

our experiments, CELF achieved up to a factor 700 improve-

A ← ∅; foreach s ∈ V do δs ← +∞;

ment in speed compared to CEF when selecting 100 blogs.

while ∃s ∈ V \ A : c(A ∪ {s}) ≤ B do

Algorithm 1 provides pseudo-code for CELF.

foreach s ∈ V \ A do curs ← false;

When computing the online bounds discussed in Section 3.2,

while true do

we can use a similar lazy strategy. The only diﬀerence is

if type=UC then s∗ ← argmax δs ;

s∈V\A,c(A∪{s})≤B

that, instead of lazily ensuring that the best δs is correctly

∗ δs computed, we ensure that the top k (where k is as in Eq. (4))

if type=CB then s ← argmax ; δs improvements have been updated.

s∈V\A,c(A∪{s})≤B c(s)

if curs then A ← A ∪ s∗ ; break ;

else δs ← R(A ∪ {s})−R(A); curs ← true; 5. CASE STUDY 1: BLOG NETWORK

return A;

5.1 Experimental setup

In this work we are not explicitly modeling the spread of

Algorithm:CELF(G = (V, E ),R,c,B) information over the network, but rather consider cascades

as input to our algorithms.

AU C ←LazyForward(G, R, c, B,UC ); Here we are interested in blogs that actively participate in

ACB ←LazyForward(G, R, c, B,CB ); discussions, we biased the dataset towards the active part

return argmax{R(AU C ), R(ACB )} of the blogosphere, and selected a subset from the larger

Algorithm 1: The CELF algorithm. set of 2.5 million blogs of [7]. We considered all blogs that

received at least 3 in-links in the ﬁrst 6 months of 2006,

and then took all their posts for the full year 2006. So, the

Algorithm:GetBound(G = (V, E ),A,R,c,B) dataset that we use has 45,000 blogs, 10.5 million posts, and

A ← ∅; B ← ∅; R̂ = R(A); 16.2 million links (30 GB of data). However, only 1 million

foreach s ∈ V do δs ← R(A ∪ {s}) − R(A); rs = δs

; links point inside the set of 45,000 blogs.

c(s)

Posts have rich metadata, including time stamps, which

while ∃s ∈ V \ (A ∪ B) : c(A ∪ B ∪ {s}) ≤ B do

allows us to extract information cascades, i.e., subgraphs

s∗ ← argmax rs ;

s∈V\{A∪B},c(A∪B∪{s})≤B induced by directed edges representing the temporal ﬂow

R̂ ← R̂ + δs∗ ; B ← B ∪ {s∗ }; of information. We adopt the following deﬁnition of a cas-

∗ B−c(A∪B) cade [16]: every cascade has a single starting post, and other

s ← argmax rs ; λ ← c(s∗ )

; posts recursively join by linking to posts within the cascade,

s∈V\{A∪B},c(A∪B∪{s})≤B

whereby the links obey time order. We detect cascades by

return R̂ + λδs∗ ;

ﬁrst identifying starting post and then following in-links.

Algorithm 2: Getting bound R̂ on optimal solution. We discover 346,209 non-trivial cascades having at least 2

nodes. Since the cascade size distribution is heavy-tailed,

we further limit our analysis to only cascades that had at

least 10 nodes. The ﬁnal dataset has 17,589 cascades, where

4.2 Reducing function evaluations each blog participates in 9.4 diﬀerent cascades on average.

Even if we can quickly evaluate the score R(A) of any

given placement, we still need to perform a large number 5.2 Objective functions

of these evaluations in order to run the greedy algorithm. We use the penalty reduction objectives DL, DT and PA

If we select k sensors among |V| locations, we roughly need as introduced in Section 2.2. We normalize the scores of

k|V| function evaluations. We can exploit submodularity the solution to be between 0 and 1. For the DL (detection

further to require far fewer function evaluations in prac- likelihood) criterion, the quality of the solution is the frac-

tice. Assume we have computed the marginal increments tion of all detected cascades (regardless of when we detect

δs (A) = R(A ∪ {s}) − R(A) (or δs (A)/c(s)) for all s ∈ V \ A. it). The PA (population aﬀected) criterion measures what

The key idea is to realize that, as our node selection A grows, fraction of the population included in the cascade after we

the marginal increments δs (and δs /c(s)) (i.e., the beneﬁts detect it, i.e., if we would be reading all the blogs initiating

for adding sensor s ) can never increase: For A ⊆ B ⊆ V, the cascades, then the quality of the solution is 1. In PA our

it holds that δs (A) ≥ δs (B). So instead of recomputing reward depends on which fraction of the cascades we detect,

δs ≡ δs (A) for every sensor after adding s (and hence re- and big cascades count more than small cascades.

quiring |V| − |A| evaluations of R), we perform lazy eval-

uations: Initially, we mark all δs as invalid. When ﬁnding 5.3 Solution quality

the next location to place a sensor, we go through the nodes First, we evaluate the performance of CELF, and estimate

in decreasing order of their δs . If the δs for the top node how far from optimal the solution could be. Note, that ob-

s is invalid, we recompute it, and insert it into the existing taining the optimal solution would require enumeration of

order of the δs (e.g., by using a priority queue). In many 245,000 subsets. Since this is impractical, we compare our al-

cases, the recomputation of δs will lead to a new value which gorithm to the bounds we developed in Section 3. Fig. 3(a)

is not much smaller, and hence often, the top element will shows scores for increasing budgets when optimized the PA

stay the top element even after recomputation. In this case, (population aﬀected) criterion. As we select more blogs to

we found a new sensor to add, without having reevaluated δs read, the proportion of cascades we catch increases (bottom

for every location s. The correctness of this lazy procedure line). We also plot the two bounds. The oﬀ-line bound

follows directly from submodularity, and leads to far fewer

(expensive) evaluations of R. We call this lazy greedy al- 5

[22] suggested a similar algorithm for the unit cost case.

1.4 1 0.8 300

**Reduction in population affected
**

Reduction in population affected Offline bound Optimizing

1.2 DL benefit/cost ratio

0.8 250

DT 0.6

Penalty reduction

1 Online

Number of blogs

bound 200 Score R = 0.4

0.8 0.6 R = 0.3

0.4

150

0.6 0.4 PA

0.4 Ignoring cost 100

CELF 0.2 in optimization

solution 0.2

0.2 50 R = 0.2

0 0 0

0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 1 2 3 4 5 0

Number of blogs Number of blogs Cost (number of posts) x 10

4 0 5000 10000 15000

Number of posts

**(a) Performance of CELF (b) Objective functions (a) Cost of a blog (b) Cost tradeoﬀ
**

Figure 3: (a) Performance of CELF algorithm and Figure 4: (a) Comparison of the unit and the num-

oﬀ-line and on-line bounds for PA objective func- ber of posts cost models. (b) For ﬁxed value of PA

tion. (b) Compares objective functions. R, we get multiple solutions varying in costs.

0.8

Reduction in population affected

**Reduction in population affected
**

CELF

(Section 3.1) shows that the unknown optimal solution lies 0.5

CELF

Blog out−links

between our solution (bottom line) and the bound (top line). 0.6

In−links 0.4

Blog

Out−links

Notice the discrepancy between the lines is big, which means 0.4 0.3

All

Out−links

the bound is very loose. On the other hand, the middle line All outlinks

0.2

shows the online bound (Section 3.2), which again tells us 0.2 # Posts

In−Links

0.1

that the optimal solution is somewhere between our current Random # Posts

0 0

solution and the bound. Notice, the gap is much smaller. 0 20 40 60

Number of blogs

80 100 0 1000 2000 3000

Number of posts

4000 5000

**This means (a) that the our on-line bound is much tighter
**

than the traditional oﬀ-line bound. And, (b) that our CELF (a) Unit cost (b) Number of posts cost

algorithm performs very close to the optimum. Figure 5: Heuristic blog selection methods. (a) unit

In contrast to the oﬀ-line bound, the on-line bound is al- cost model, (b) number of posts cost model.

gorithm independent, and thus can be computed regardless

of the algorithm used to obtain the solution. Since it is

tighter, it gives a much better worst case estimate of the selected blogs can have at most B posts total. Note, that

solution quality. For this particular experiment, we see that under the unit cost model, CELF chooses expensive blogs

CELF works very well: after selecting 100 blogs, we are at with many posts. For example, to obtain the same PA ob-

most 13.8% away from the optimal solution. jective value, one needs to read 10,710 posts under unit cost

Figure 3(b) shows the performance using various objective model. The NP cost model achieves the same score while

functions (from top to bottom: DL, DT, PA). DL increases reading just 1,500 posts. Thus, optimizing the beneﬁt cost

the fastest, which means that one only needs to read a few ratio (PA/cost) leads to drastically improved performance.

blogs to detect most of the cascades, or equivalently that Interestingly, the solutions obtained under the NP cost

most cascades hit one of the big blogs. However, the pop- model are very diﬀerent from the unit cost model. Under

ulation aﬀected (PA) increases much slower, which means NP, political blogs are not chosen anymore, but rather sum-

that one needs many more blogs to know about stories be- marizers (e.g., themodulator.org, watcherofweasels.com,

fore the rest of population does. By using the on-line bound anglican.tk) are important. Blogs selected under NP cost

we also calculated that all objective functions are at most appear about 3 days later in the cascade as those selected

5% to 15% from optimal. under unit cost, which further suggests that that summa-

rizer blogs tend to be chosen under NP model.

5.4 Cost of a blog In practice, the cost of reading a blog is not simply propor-

The results presented so far assume that every blog has tional to the number of posts, since we also need to navigate

the same cost. Under this unit cost model, the algorithm to the blog (which takes constant eﬀort per blog). Hence, a

tends to pick large, inﬂuential blogs, that have many posts. combination of unit and NP cost is more realistic. Fig. 4(b)

For example, instapundit.com is the best blog when opti- interpolates between these two cost models. Each curve

mizing PA, but it has 4,593 posts. Interestingly, most of the shows the solutions with the same value R of the PA ob-

blogs among the top 10 are politics blogs: instapundit. jective, but using a diﬀerent number of posts (x-axis) and

com, michellemalkin.com, blogometer.nationaljournal. blogs (y-axis) each. For a given R, the ideal spot is the one

com, and sciencepolitics.blogspot.com. Some popular closest to origin, which means that we want to read the least

aggregators of interesting things and trends on the blogo- number of posts from least blogs to obtain desired score R.

sphere are also selected: boingboing.net, themodulator. Only at the end points does CELF tend to pick extreme so-

org and bloggersblog.com. The top 10 PA blogs had more lutions: few blogs with many posts, or many blogs with few

than 21,000 thousand posts in 2006. They account for 0.2% posts. Note, there is a clear knee on plots of Fig. 4(b), which

of all posts, 3.5% of all in-links, 1.7% of out-links inside the means that by only slightly increasing the number of blogs

dataset, and 0.37% of all out-links. we allow ourselves to read, the number of posts needed de-

Under the unit cost model, large blogs are important, but creases drastically, while still maintaining the same value R

reading a blog with many posts is time consuming. This of the objective function.

motivates the number of posts (NP) cost model, where we

set the cost of a blog to the number of posts it had in 2006. 5.5 Comparison to heuristic blog selection

First, we compare the NP cost model with the unit cost in Next, we compare our method with several intuitive heuris-

Fig. 4(a). The top curve shows the value of the PA criterion tic selection techniques. For example, instead of optimizing

for budgets of B posts, i.e., we optimize PA such that the the DT, DL or PA objective function using CELF, we may

0.4 400 0.2 0.2

Reduction in population affected

Reduction in population affected

**Reduction in population affected
**

Exhaustive search Optimizing on future,

**Running time (seconds)
**

Split Result on future

0.3 300 (All subsets) 0.15 0.15

Optimizing on future,

Naive Result on future

0.2 200 greedy 0.1 Optimizing on historic, 0.1

Result on future

No split

100 CELF,

0.1 0.05 0.05

CELF + Bounds

Optimizing on historic,

0 Result on future

0 0 0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 2 4 6 8 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000

Cost (number of posts) Number of blogs selected Cost Cost

**(a) Split vs. no split (b) Run time (a) All blogs (b) Only big blogs
**

Figure 6: (a) Improvement in performance by split- Figure 7: Generalization to future data when CELF

ting big blogs into multiple nodes. (b) Run times of can select any blog (a), or only big blogs (b).

exhaustive search, greedy and CELF algorithm.

found that Friday is the best day to read blogs. The value of

just want to select the most popular blogs and hope to de- PA for Friday is 0.20, while it is 0.13 for the rest of the week.

tect many cascades. We considered several such heuristics, We consider this surprising, since the activity of the blogo-

where we order blogs by some “goodness” criteria, and then sphere (number of posts and links created) drops towards

pick top blogs (until the budget is exhausted). We consider the end of the week, and especially over the weekend [16].

the following criteria: the number posts on the blog, the

cumulative number of out-links of blog’s posts, the number

of in-links the blog received from other blogs in the dataset,

5.7 Generalization to future data

and the number of out-links to other blogs in the dataset. Since the inﬂuence and popularity of the blogs also evolves

As Fig. 5(a) shows, the CELF algorithm greatly outper- over time we also want to know how well the selected blogs

forms all the heuristic selection techniques. More interest- will detect cascades in the future. To evaluate the general-

ingly, the best heuristics (doing 45% worse than CELF) pick ization to unknown future, we use the ﬁrst 6 months of the

blogs by the number of in- or out-links from/to other blogs dataset as historic data to select a set of blogs, and then use

in the dataset. Number of posts, the total number of out- second 6 months of the dataset to evaluate the performance

links and random blog selection do not perform well. of selected blogs on unseen future cascades.

Number of in-links is the indicator of a blog’s tendency to Fig. 7 compares the performance on the unknown future

create cascades, while number of out-links (to other blogs) data. Top dashed curve in both plots shows the optimal per-

indicates blog’s tendency to summarize the blogosphere. We formance on future data, i.e., we select the blogs directly us-

also note, that the surprisingly good performance of the ing the (unknown) future data. The bottom curve presents

number of out-links to blogs in the dataset is an artefact the realistic case where we select the blogs using historic

of our “closed-world” dataset, and in real-life we can not data and evaluate using hidden future data.

estimate this. The results also agree well with our intuition As Fig. 7(a) shows, CELF overﬁts when evaluated on the

that the number of in-links is a good heuristic, since it di- future data, i.e., it selects small blogs with very few posts

rectly indicates the of propagation of information. that just by chance participate in cascades, and then these

Fig. 5(b) explores the same setting under the NP cost blogs do not generalize well for the second half of the year.

model. Here, given a budget of B posts, we select a set of One way to overcome this overﬁtting is to prevent CELF from

blogs to optimize PA objective. For the heuristics, we select picking very small blogs. To understand this restriction we

a set of blogs to optimize chosen heuristic, e.g., the total show in Fig. 7(b) the performance when CELF can only select

number of in-links of selected blogs while still ﬁtting inside blogs with at least one post per day (365 posts per year).

the budget of B posts. Again, CELF outperforms the next Comparing Fig. 7(a) and Fig. 7(b) we see that the opti-

best heuristics by 41%, and again the number of in- and mal performance (top curve) drops if CELF is limited on only

out-links are the best heuristics. picking big blogs. This is expected since CELF has less choice

These results show that simple heuristics that one could of which blogs to pick, and thus performs worse. However,

use to identify blogs to read do not really work well. There when limiting the selection to only big blogs (Fig. 7(b)) the

are good summarizer blogs that may not be very popular, gap between the curves is very small (compared to the big

but which, by using few posts, catch most of the important gap of Fig. 7(a)). Moreover, the performance on the future

stories propagating over the blogosphere. data does not drop, and the method generalizes well.

**5.6 Fractionally selecting blogs 5.8 Scalability
**

Our framework also allows fractional selection of blogs, Figure 4(b) plots the running time of selecting k blogs. We

which means that instead of reading a large blog every day, see that exhaustively enumerating all possible subsets of k

we can read it, e.g., only one day per week. This also allows elements is infeasible (the line jumps out of the plot for k =

us to ask: what is the best day of the week to read blogs? 3). The simple greedy algorithm scales as Ω(k|V|), since for

In order to study whether fractional selection allows to every increment of k we need to consider selecting all remain-

achieve better beneﬁt cost ratio, we split the blogs which ing |V| − k blogs. The bottom line overlapping the x-axis

had at least one post per day into 7 blogs, one for each day of Fig. 4(b) shows the performance of our CELF algorithm.

of the week. Fig. 6(a) shows, that by splitting big blogs, For example, for selecting 100 blogs, greedy algorithm runs

the population aﬀected (PA) objective function increases for 4.5h, while CELF takes 23 seconds (700 times faster). Calcu-

12% over the setting where only whole blogs can be selected. lation of the on-line bounds while running CELF takes 54s.

Returning to the original question, we performed the fol- Exploiting the sparsity of the problem (c.f., Section 4) al-

lowing experiment: given a budget of 1000 posts, what is lowed us to reduce the size of the inverted index from orig-

the best day of the week to read posts (optimizing PA)? We inally 3.5 GB to 50 MB, easily ﬁtting it in main memory.

6. CASE STUDY 2: WATER NETWORKS 1.4 1

**Reduction of population affected
**

1.2 offline bound

0.8

online bound

6.1 Experimental setup PA

Penalty reduction

1

0.6 DL

0.8

In the water distribution system application, we used the 0.6 0.4

data and rules introduced by the Battle of Water Sensor 0.4

CELF

solution

Networks (BWSN) challenge [19]. We considered both the 0.2

0.2 DT

**small network on 129 nodes (BWSN1), and a large, real- 0
**

0 5 10 15 20

0

0 10 20 30 40 50

istic, 12,527 node distribution network (BWSN2) provided Number of sensors selected Number of sensors selected

**as part of the BWSN challenge. In addition we also con- (a) Performance of CELF (b) Objective functions
**

sider a third water distribution network (NW3) of a large Figure 8: (a) CELF with oﬄine and online bounds

metropolitan area in the United States. The network (not for PA objective. (b) Diﬀerent objective functions.

including the household level) contains 21,000 nodes and

25,000 pipes (edges). To our knowledge, this is the largest

water distribution network considered for sensor placement

optimization so far. The networks consist of a static descrip-

tion (junctions and pipes) and dynamic parameters (time-

varying water consumption demand patterns at diﬀerent

nodes, opening and closing of valves, pumps, tanks, etc.)

6.2 Objective functions

In the BWSN challenge, we want to select a set of 20 sen-

(a) PA (b) DL

sors, simultaneously optimizing the objective functions DT,

PA and DL, as introduced in Section 2.2. To obtain cas- Figure 9: Water network sensor placements: (a)

cades we use a realistic disease model deﬁned by [19], which when optimizing PA, sensors are concentrated in

depends on the demands and the contaminant concentration high population areas. (b) when optimizing DL, sen-

at each node. In order to evaluate these objectives, we use sors are uniformly spread out.

the EPANET simulator [24], which is based on a physical

model to provide realistic predictions on the detection time timizing the detection likelihood, the sensors are uniformly

and concentration of contaminant for any possible contam- spread out over the network. Intuitively this makes sense,

ination event. We consider simulations of 48 hours length, since according to BWSN challenge [19], outbreaks happen

with 5 minute simulation timesteps. Contaminations can with same probability at every node. So, for DL, the placed

happen at any node and any time within the ﬁrst 24 hours, sensors should be as close to all nodes as possible.

and spread through the network according to the EPANET We also compared the scores achieved by CELF with sev-

simulation. The time of the outbreak is important, since wa- eral heuristic sensor placement techniques, where we order

ter consumption varies over the day and the contamination the nodes by some “goodness” criteria, and then pick the top

spreads at diﬀerent rates depending on the time of the day. nodes. We consider the following criteria: population at the

Altogether, we consider a set of 3.6 million possible con- node, water ﬂow through the node, and the diameter and the

tamination scenarios and each of these is associated with a number of pipes at the node. Fig. 11(a) shows the results for

“cascade” of contaminant spreading over the network. the PA objective function. CELF outperforms best heuristic

by 45%. Best heuristics are placing nodes at random, by de-

6.3 Solution quality gree or their population. We see heuristics perform poorly,

We ﬁrst used CELF to optimize placements of increasing since nodes which are close in the graph tend to have similar

size, according to the three criteria DL, DT, PA. We again ﬂow, diameter and population, and hence the sensors will be

normalized the scores to be between 0 and 1, where 1 is the spread out too little. Even the maximum over one hundred

best achievable score when placing sensors at every node. random trials performs far worse than CELF [15].

Fig. 8 (a) presents the CELF score, the oﬀ-line and on-line

bounds for PA objective on the BWSN2 network. Consis- 6.4 Multicriterion optimization

tently with the blog experiments, the on-line bound is much Using the theory developed in Section 2.4, we traded-oﬀ

tighter than the oﬀ-line bound, and the solutions obtained diﬀerent objectives for the water distribution application.

by our CELF algorithm are very close to the optimum. We selected pairs of objectives, e.g., DL and PA, and varied

Fig. 8 (b) shows CELF’s performance on all 3 objective the weights λ to produce (approximately) Pareto-optimal

functions. Similarly to the blog data, the population af- solutions. In Fig. 10 (a) we plot the tradeoﬀ curves for

fected (PA) score increases very quickly. The reason is that diﬀerent placement sizes k. By adding more sensors, both

most contamination events only impact a small fraction of objectives DL and PA increase. The crves also show, that

the network. Using few sensors, it is relatively easy to de- if we, e.g., optimize for DL, the PA score can be very low.

tect most of the high impact outbreaks. However, if we want However, there are points which achieve near-optimal scores

to detect all scenarios, we need to place a large number of in both criteria (the knee in the curve). This sweet spot is

sensors (2,263 in our experiment). Hence, the DL (and cor- what we aim for in multi-criteria optimization.

respondingly DT) increase more slowly than PA. We also traded oﬀ the aﬀected population PA and a fourth

Fig. 9 shows two 20 sensor placements after optimizing DL criterion deﬁned by BWSN, the expected consumption of

and PA respectively on BWSN2. When optimizing the pop- contaminated water. Fig. 10 (b) shows the trade-oﬀ curve for

ulation aﬀected (PA), the placed sensors are concentrated in this experiment. Notice that the curves (almost) collapse to

the dense high-population areas, since the goal is to detect points, indicating that these criteria are highly correlated,

outbreaks which aﬀect the population the most. When op- which we expect for this pair of objective functions. Again,

1

k=50

1 bution. Kempe et al. showed that the problem of selecting

**Contaminated water consumed
**

k=20

0.9 k=35

a set of nodes with maximum inﬂuence is submodular, sat-

Population affected (PA)

0.9 k=50

k=20 k=35

0.8

k=10

k=10

isfying the conditions of Theorem 2, and hence the greedy

algorithm provides a (1 − 1/e) approximation. The problem

0.7 0.8

k=5

k=5

0.6 k=3

0.7 addressed in this paper generalizes this Triggering model:

0.5

k=2 k=3

0.6

0.4 k=2 Theorem 5. The Triggering Model [10] is a special case

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

0.5

0.4 0.6 0.8 1 of our network outbreak detection problem.

Detection likelihood (DL) Population affected (PA)

**(a) (b) In order to prove Theorem 5, we consider ﬁxed directed
**

Figure 10: (a) Trading oﬀ PA and DL. (b) Trading graphs sampled from the Triggering distribution. If we re-

oﬀ PA and consumed contaminated water. vert the arcs in any such graph, then our PA objective cor-

responds exactly to the inﬂuence function of [10] applied to

0.8 Running time (minutes) the original graph. Details of the proof can be found in [15].

Reduction in population affected

CELF 300

Exhaustive search

Theorem 5 shows that spreading inﬂuence under the gen-

Random

0.6 Degree (All subsets) eral Triggering Model is a special case of our outbreak de-

200 Naive tection formalism. The problems are fundamentally related

0.4 greedy

**Diameter CELF, since, when spreading inﬂuence, one tries to aﬀect as many
**

Flow 100 CELF + Bounds

0.2

Population nodes as possible, while when detecting outbreak, one wants

0

to minimize the eﬀect of an outbreak in the network. Sec-

0

0 5 10 15 20 2 4 6 8 10 ondly, note that in the example of reading blogs, it is not

Number of sensors Number of sensors selected

necessarily a good strategy to aﬀect nodes which are very in-

(a) Comparison with random (b) Runtime ﬂuential, as these tend to have many posts, and hence are ex-

Figure 11: (a) Solutions of CELF outperform heuris- pensive to read. In contrast to inﬂuence maximization, the

tic approaches. (b) Running time of exhaustive notion of cost-beneﬁt analysis is crucial to our applications.

search, greedy and CELF.

7.2 Related work

the eﬃciency of our implementation allows to quickly gen- Optimizing submodular functions. The fundamental

erate and explore these trade-oﬀ curves, while maintaining result about the greedy algorithm for maximizing submod-

strong guarantees about near-optimality of the results. ular functions in the unit-cost case goes back to [17]. The

ﬁrst approximation results about maximizing submodular

6.5 Scalability functions in the non-constant cost case were proved by [25].

In the water distribution setting, we need to simulate 3.6 They developed an algorithm with approximation guarantee

million contamination scenarios, each of which takes approx- of (1 − 1/e), which however requires a number of function

imately 7 seconds and produces 14KB of data. Since most of evaluations Ω(B|V|4 ) in the size of the ground set V (if the

the computer cluster scheduling systems break if one would lowest cost is constant). In contrast, the number of evalu-

submit 3.6 million jobs into the queue, we developed a dis- ations required by CELF is O(B|V|), while still providing a

tributed architecture, where the clients obtain simulation constant factor approximation guarantee.

parameters and then conﬁrm the successful completion of Virus propagation and outbreak detection. Work on

the simulation. We run the simulation for a month on a spread of diseases in networks and immunization mostly fo-

cluster of around 40 machines. This produced 152GB of cuses on determining the value of the epidemic threshold [1],

outbreak simulation data. By exploiting the properties of a critical value of the virus transmission probability above

the problem described in Section 4, the size of the inverted which the virus creates an epidemic. Several strategies for

index (which represents the relevant information for evalu- immunization have also been proposed: uniform node immu-

ating placement scores) is reduced to 16 GB which we were nization, targeted immunization of high degree nodes [20]

able to ﬁt into main memory of a server. The fact that and acquaintance immunization, which focuses on highly

we could ﬁt the data into main memory alone sped up the connected nodes [5].In the context of our work, uniform im-

algorithms by at least a factor of 1000. munization corresponds to randomly placing sensors in the

Fig. 11 (b) presents the running times of CELF, the naive network. Similarly, targeted immunization corresponds to

greedy algorithm and exhaustive search (extrapolated). We selecting nodes based on their in- or out-degree. As we have

can see that the CELF is 10 times faster than the greedy al- seen in Figures 5 and 11, both strategies perform worse than

gorithm when placing 10 sensors. Again, a drastic speedup. direct optimization of the population aﬀected criterion.

Information cascades and blog networks. Cascades

have been studied for many years by sociologists concerned

7. DISCUSSION AND RELATED WORK with the diﬀusion of innovation [23]; more recently, cas-

cades we used for studying viral marketing [8, 14], selecting

7.1 Relationship to Influence Maximization trendsetters in social networks [21], and explaining trends

In [10], a Triggering Model was introduced for modeling in blogspace [9, 13]. Studies of blogspace either spend eﬀort

the spread of inﬂuence in a social network. As the authors mining topics from posts [9] or consider only the properties

show, this model generalizes the Independent Cascade, Lin- of blogspace as a graph of unlabeled URLs [13]. Recently,

ear Threshold and Listen-once models commonly used for [16] studied the properties and models of information cas-

modeling the spread of inﬂuence. Essentially, this model de- cades in blogs. While previous work either focused on em-

scribes a probability distribution over directed graphs, and pirical analyses of information propagation and/or provided

the inﬂuence is deﬁned as the expected number of nodes models for it, we develop a general methodology for node

reachable from a set of nodes, with respect to this distri- selection in networks while optimizing a given criterion.

Water distribution network monitoring. A number of 9. REFERENCES

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Guestrin was supported in part by an IBM Faculty Fellow- Operations Research Letters, 32:41–43, 2004.

ship, and an Alfred P. Sloan Fellowship.

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