Mining Science and Technology (China) 21 (2011) 307–311

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Mining Science and Technology (China)

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/mstc

A method to calculate displacement factors using SVM

Li Peixian ⇑, Tan Zhixiang, Yan Lili, Deng Kazhong
Key Laboratory of Land Environment and Disaster Monitoring of SBSM, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In order to improve the precision of mining subsidence prediction, a mathematical model using Support
Received 26 August 2010 Vector Machine (SVM) was established to calculate the displacement factor. The study is based on a
Received in revised form 23 September 2010 comprehensive analysis of factors affecting the displacement factor, such as mechanical properties of
Accepted 21 October 2010
the cover rock, the ratio of mining depth to seam thickness, dip angle of the coal seam and the thickness
Available online 12 June 2011
of loose layer. Data of 63 typical observation stations were used as a training and testing sample set. A
SVM regression model of the displacement factor and the factors affecting it was established with a
Keywords:
kernel function, an insensitive loss factor and a properly selected penalty factor. Given an accurate
Mining subsidence
Displacement factor
calculation algorithm for testing and analysis, the results show that an SVM regression model can calcu-
SVM late displacement factor precisely and reliable precision can be obtained which meets engineering
Probability integration method requirements. The experimental results show that the method to calculation of the displacement factor,
based on the SVM method, is feasible. The many factors affecting the displacement factor can be consid-
ered with this method. The research provides an efficient and accurate approach for the calculation of
displacement in mining subsidence prediction.
Ó 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of China University of Mining & Technology.

1. Introduction ever, due to complex natural geological and mining conditions,

Probability integration is the most widely used method in min-
ing subsidence prediction and one of the recommended methods in
the regulation of the National Coal Bureau [1,2]. The displacement
factor is the ratio of the maximum horizontal displacement to the
maximum subsidence and is a key parameter in probability
integration to predict horizontal displacement and horizontal
deformation. Horizontal displacement and subsidence are two
basic parameters denoting strata and surface movements [3]. An
accurate determination of the displacement factor is of great
importance for improving precision of mining subsidence
prediction.
Currently, the most frequently used method to obtain the dis-
placement factor is setting up ground movement and deformation
observation stations over the working face, in which case the factor
can be calculated by measurements of horizontal displacement.
This method is much more reliable, but it needs large amounts of
manpower and material resources and also needs a large number
of observations over a long period of time and does not meet the
needs of mine production [4]. Aspects of theoretical studies in
mathematics and mechanics, fuzzy recognition and neural
networks are used to study the displacement factor [5–7]. How-
⇑ Corresponding author. Tel.: +86 13805205461.
E-mail address: pxlicumt@126.com (P. Li).
the relationship between the surface displacement factor and
those factors that affect horizontal displacement are highly nonlin-
ear. Simplified mathematical formulas, mechanical models and
experience are not well suited to describe the relationship between
these factors and horizontal surface displacement. Application of
such methodology would result in serious errors or mistakes,
impacting the safety of mine production.
A Support Vector Machine (SVM) is a small sample learning
method based on Statistical Learning Theory (SLT). The core idea
is to minimize empirical risk and the upper boundary value of
expected risk at the same time, in order to improve the ability
for generalization of the study machine. SVM can avoid the
study machine falling into local minima, can effectively solve
the over fitting problem and has a good performance in general-
ization [8]. The SVM has many special advantages in solving
problems of small sample learning in nonlinear, high dimen-
sional pattern recognition. The SVM has turned into an excellent
machine learning algorithm and has been widely used in mine
production due to its advantages [9–13]. Based on its compre-
hensive analysis of factors affecting displacement, data of 63
typical observation stations were used as training and testing
samples, a SVM prediction model was established to calculate
the surface displacement factor. The research provides a new
approach and method to calculate displacement factors for
mining subsidence.

1674-5264/$ - see front matter Ó 2011 Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of China University of Mining & Technology.
doi:10.1016/j.mstc.2011.05.009
308 P. Li et al. / Mining Science and Technology (China) 21 (2011) 307–311
2. Analysis of mining and geological factors affecting
displacement factors
The experience over many years of mining practice has shown
that the displacement factor is affected by geological conditions
and mining factors [14]. The relationship between the displace-
ment factor and geological and mining conditions is analyzed as
follows.
2.1. Mechanical properties of the cover rock
The mechanical properties of the cover rock have considerable
effect on strata and ground movements caused by underground
mining. Zou provided Eq. (1) of a displacement factor affected by
the modulus of deformation of a rock mass, mining depth and
the thickness of the coal seam [5].
E qH 2
b ¼ 0:350  0:07  0:006
Em 100Em M
where b is the displacement factor; E the modulus of deformation of
the rock mass, MPa; Em the modulus of deformation of a hard rock
mass, MPa, usually accepted as 3600 MPa; q the average density of
the rock mass, kg/m3; M the coal seam thickness, m; and H the min-
ing depth, m.
The displacement factor decreases with an increase in the
modulus of deformation of the rock mass as shown in Eq. (1). This
modulus can be calculated as the average solidity coefficient f as
shown in Eq. (2).
, !
X
n X
n
f ¼ mi Q i 10 mi
1 1
where mi is the normal thickness of the ith rock layer, m; and Qi the
uniaxial compression strength of the rock, MPa. We have used the
average solidity coefficient to denote the effect of mechanical prop-
erties which affect the displacement factor.
2.2. Effect of coal seam thickness and mining depth
The thickness of the seam has a great effect on the movement of
the surface and the cover rock. Horizontal surface displacement
increases incrementally and proportionally with the thickness of
the seam, as shown in Eq. (1). As well, under the same conditions
of the thickness of coal seam and that of a loose layer, the maxi-
mum horizontal displacement decreases and the area increases
with an increase in mining depth. Therefore, the ratio of mining
depth to thickness is used to indicate the impact of mining depth
and thickness of the seam on the displacement factor.
2.3. Coal seam dip angle
Changes in the coal seam dip angle have considerable effect on
rock and horizontal surface displacement. Horizontal displacement
in direction of rise will increase and decrease in direction of dip,
when mining a sloping coal seam. The maximum horizontal
surface displacement may be greater than the maximum subsi-
dence when mining steep coal seams [1]. The National Coal Bureau
provides an empirical equation to calculate the displacement
factor for dip seam mining (Eq. (3)) [2].
bc ¼ bð1 þ 0:0086aÞ
where bc is the displacement factor of the dip seam, b the displace-
ment factor of the horizontal seam and a its dip angle.
2.4. Thickness of loose layer
The thickness of the loose layer has a strong effect on the
characteristics of ground movements. A loose layer moves with
the bedrock and simultaneously fills the subsidence space of the
bedrock with a flow form, due to its rheological behavior. It causes
the displacement to increase with an increase in the thickness of
the loose layer [15]. Eq. (4) provides an empirical relationship
between the displacement factor, thickness of the loose layer and
the mining depth in a mining area of Hebi [16].
b ¼ 0:1379 þ 0:1237h=H  0:04221 ð4Þ
where b is the displacement factor, h the thickness of the loose
layer, m, and H0 the mining depth, m.
In addition, loss of water in the loose layer also can cause the
extent and degree of horizontal displacement to increase.
3. Establishment of Support Vector Regression (SVR) model
ð1Þ
3.1. Regression method of SVM
The learning of a SVM regression is essentially a quadratic pro-
gramming problem. A set of data points (x1, y1)    (xk, yk) provides
a sample, where xi 2 Rn is the input and yi 2 R the target output.
Regression is a process to fit a function such as Eq. (5).
f ðxÞ ¼ ðw  xÞ þ b ð5Þ
After training, the corresponding y can be found from function
f(x) for the x observations not in the sample. The precision of a
e-Support Vector Regression (e-SVR) is established with a Vapnik
control algorithm given a specified tolerance error e. If the error
ð2Þ of the sample is n and |n| 6 e, ignore the error loss; otherwise con-
sider the loss as |n|  e. First, map the sample into a high dimen-
sional feature space by a nonlinear mapping function and
transform the problem of this nonlinear function estimate into a
linear regression problem in high dimensional feature space [10].
If we assume that u(x) is the mapping function which transfers
the sample space into a high dimensional feature space, then the
problem of solving the parameters of f(x) is transferred into solving
the minimization problem Eq. (6), given the constraints described
by Eq. (7).
1 1
min kwk2 ¼ ðw  wÞ ð6Þ
2 2

yi  ½w  uðxÞ þ b 6 e
subject to ; i ¼ 1; 2; . . . ; l ð7Þ
½w  uðxÞ þ b  yi 6 e
Due to the high dimension of the feature space, the target func-
tion is non-differentiable. In general, SVM regression problems are
solved by establishing a Lagrangian function which transforms this
problem into a dual programming problem to determine the
Lagrangian multipliers ai and a ^ i in maximization problems, i.e.,
Eq. (8), with the constraints of Eq. (9).
ð3Þ
Fig. 1. Abridged general view of SVM structure.
 P. Li et al. / Mining Science and Technology (China) 21 (2011) 307–311 309

Table 1
Training and test sample set.

Sequence Consistence coefficient Mining thickness Seam dip angle Average mining depth Thickness of loose layer Displacement
number (MPa) (m) (°) (m) (m) factor
1 3.10 1.60 10 318.5 2.7 0.15
2 3.10 1.50 8 81.0 3.2 0.24
3 3.20 2.10 30 60.5 10.0 0.31
4 3.20 2.30 20 57.5 9.0 0.20
5 3.50 1.85 18 150.0 8.0 0.43
6 3.50 2.00 52 227.0 32.5 0.36
7 3.60 1.60 38 120.0 24.0 0.29
8 3.50 4.00 38 120.0 17.5 0.29
9 6.00 8.05 19 606.0 8.0 0.21
10 2.50 2.00 21 253.5 3.0 0.13
11 3.40 1.85 2.5 110.0 18.0 0.34
12 0.80 2.40 2 79.3 7.0 0.16
13 1.40 4.20 8 115.5 15.0 0.21
14 1.40 5.90 6 44.0 22.0 0.26
15 4.56 1.40 12 201.0 4.0 0.16
16 5.79 4.90 11 133.0 7.0 0.24
17 5.18 1.40 9 105.0 16.0 0.35
18 4.77 3.40 19 77.5 17.0 0.23
19 5.00 4.50 30 209.5 30.0 0.36
20 3.74 1.45 12 30.5 5.0 0.27
21 3.70 1.17 10.5 107.5 7.0 0.15
22 2.20 2.00 25 182.5 7.0 0.42
23 2.10 2.70 18 130.0 10.0 0.36
24 4.50 2.20 22 91.0 5.0 0.27
25 2.52 2.10 19 110.0 50.0 0.30
26 1.90 7.00 9 109.5 49.0 0.27
27 1.90 2.20 9 109.5 49.0 0.23
28 1.82 2.20 9 95.0 48.0 0.30
29 1.82 4.60 9 95.0 48.0 0.22
30 4.44 6.90 4 163.5 38.0 0.31
31 4.44 6.90 4 163.5 38.0 0.37
32 4.44 6.90 4 163.5 38.0 0.24
33 9.84 6.30 5.5 255.5 51.0 0.28
34 2.60 2.20 8 122.5 18.0 0.26
35 4.00 6.60 8 122.5 18.0 0.33
36 4.00 6.60 8 122.5 18.0 0.20
37 2.60 2.40 8 122.5 18.0 0.29
38 4.35 1.90 13 39.0 12.0 0.12
39 3.42 2.00 30 47.0 33.0 0.30
40 3.50 2.00 16 98.5 64.0 0.37
41 5.00 2.00 34 114.5 4.5 0.24
42 5.70 2.00 43 119.1 0 0.24
43 6.00 2.40 12 280.0 17.4 0.28
44 2.00 2.10 11 195.0 40.0 0.30
45 2.00 2.30 11 211.0 40.0 0.30
46 2.45 1.94 9.5 181.0 110.0 0.30
47 3.00 1.88 7 191.0 35.1 0.30
48 3.00 1.88 7 191.0 35.1 0.36
49 3.00 1.90 17 232.0 7.0 0.48
50 3.00 1.90 17 232.0 7.0 0.48
51 3.00 3.00 20 272.5 7.0 0.49
52 4.00 1.70 30 201.0 120.0 0.40
53 0.52 3.00 8 212.5 22.0 0.26
54 2.31 7.80 4 412.0 183.0 0.28
55 1.30 8.20 4.3 325.0 197.0 0.23
56 2.45 0.92 6.5 305.0 55.0 0.33
57 1.72 2.90 3.5 284.0 112.0 0.28
58 0.70 1.25 6 285.0 196.0 0.40
59 4.00 4.90 42 264.5 14.0 0.13
60 1.82 7.00 9 95.0 48.0 0.27
61 3.42 2.10 33 49.0 33.0 0.34
62 3.00 3.00 20 272.5 7.0 0.50
63 2.20 8.50 4 427.5 194.0 0.24

1X l where ai and a ^ i are Lagrangian multipliers, ai ; a ^ i P 0 and

max  ðai  a
^ i Þðaj  a
^ j Þðxi ; xj Þ ai  a^ i ¼ 0.
2 i;j¼1
Then, the SVM regression problem is transformed into a qua-
X l X l
dratic programming problem. The regression equation can be
e ðai þ a ^i Þ þ yi ðai  a
^iÞ ð8Þ
i¼1 i¼1
obtained by solving this problem. A kernel function K(xi, xj) is intro-
 Pl
duced and the corresponding regression function can be presented
i¼1 ðai  ai Þ ¼ 0
^
subject to ð9Þ as Eq. (10).
ai ; a^ i 2 ½0; C
310 P. Li et al. / Mining Science and Technology (China) 21 (2011) 307–311

X
N
0.5 Best linear fit: T = 0.9022A + 0.0272
f ðxÞ ¼ ðai  a
^ i Þðaj  a
^ j ÞKðxi ; xj Þ þ b ð10Þ r = 0.972
i¼1
0.4
where the kernel function K(xi, xj) is the internal product of vectors
0.3

T
xi and xj in feature spaces uðxi Þ and uðxj Þ. Only a small part of ai and
a^ i , determined by solving the quadratic programming problem Eq.
0.2
(8), is not zero and its corresponding data points are the support
vectors shown as Fig. 1. The regression function of SVM is only
decided by these support vectors [10]. 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
A
3.2. Sample data selection Fig. 2. Regression and training effect figure.

To predict the displacement factor by SVM, a sufficiently large

sample data set of factors affecting the displacement factor, includ-
ing training and test samples, is required. Each sample should in- Table 2
clude the multidimensional input parameters related to the Comparison of calculation results and actual measurements.
displacement factor and an output parameter (the displacement Sequence Actual Calculated by Absolutely Relative
factor). Again, the National Coal Bureau has provided data from number measured SVM error error (%)
208 typical surface observation stations, part of which includes 59 0.13 0.134 0.004 3.0
geological and mining conditions [2]. By analyzing and testing, 60 0.27 0.273 0.003 1.1
data from 63 working faces were selected as a training and test 61 0.34 0.336 0.004 1.2
sample, shown in Table 1. 62 0.50 0.486 0.014 2.8
63 0.24 0.244 0.004 1.6

3.3. Parameter selection and accuracy of SVR

The performance of a SVM often depends on the selection of a
kernel function, its width coefficient, a penalty factor C and e in
insensitive loss function. It contains a best matching problem
between the width coefficient and the penalty factor. In order to
establish the relationship between the displacement factor and the
factors which affect it, these parameters need to be selected
correctly.
We opted for a Radial Basis Function (RBF) as our kernel func-
tion. In order to improve the accuracy of the regression model,
the tolerance error of the result was set at 0.001.
The 1st to 58th sample points and a Sequential Minimal Optimi-
zation (SMO) method was used to train the SVM. The penalty factor
and width coefficient were selected with the aid of a 10-fold cross
validation method. Through repeated testing and cross validation,
we found that the regression model fitted best with a penalty
factor C = 8192 and e = 0.1. On the basis of training and research,
our results show that the total number of support vectors was
52, including 5 on the boundary.
The training of the first 58 sample points was performed by the
SVR model. In our investigation, the measured displacement
factors were used as true values to evaluate the accuracy of the
results obtained by the SVR model. Since the observations are
independent from each other, the Mean Square Error (MSE) and
mean absolute percentage error of the model can be calculated
by Eqs. (11) and (12).
qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
^ Þ2 =n
mb ¼  ðbi  b i
rffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
X58
¼ ðb  b ^ Þ2 =58 ¼ 0:025
i i
i¼1
hX  i
^i Þ=bi =n  100%
MAPE ¼ ðbi  b
hX58  i
¼ ðbi  b^ Þ=b =58  100% ¼ 3:5%
i¼1 i i
where mb is mean square error, bi the actual measured displace-
ment factor and b ^i displacement factor calculated by the SVR
model; n = 58, is the sample size and MAPE the mean absolute
percentage error.
The results of Eqs. (11) and (12) show that the MSE, as calcu-
lated by the SVR model, is small and MAPE < 5%. These results
show that the SVR model has a reasonable level of accuracy and
MSE can be used as the index to control the accuracy of the model.
The training and regression results, shown in Fig. 2, where r is the
correlation coefficient of the model output and target output: the
closer r is to 1, the closer the actual model output is to the target
output, T the output displacement factors calculated by the SVM,
and A its actual measured value, indicate that the training result
is near perfect, with r = 0.972. The similarity of the results
predicted by SVR and the actual measurements is quite striking.
Our SVR regression model proved to be a good fit.
4. Results and discussion
The model was tested on the sample set of the 59th–63rd obser-
vations. The test results are compared with the measurements in
Table 2.
Table 2 shows that the absolute maximum error calculated by
the SVM is 0.014, smaller than the mean square error. The
maximum relative error is 2.8%. These results indicate that the
displacement factor calculated by the SVM can satisfy the require-
ments of engineering applications. SVM models can consider the
factors that affect the displacement factor synthetically and the
results are accurate and reliable. Therefore, this method is a
suitable and effective way to calculate the displacement factor.
5. Conclusions
(1) We have introduced a method to establish a SVM regression
ð11Þ
model, with which to calculate the mining displacement fac-
tor, given the theoretical outline of the SVM.
(2) A set of typical observation points were used to train and
ð12Þ test the SVM model, showing that the results calculated by
the SVM fitted the measurements well. The study proves
that it is accurate and reliable to calculate the displacement
factors by the SVM model.
(3) Many factors related to the displacement factor can be con-
sidered by the SVM model. The method to establish a SVM
model is simple and the results can be accurate and reliable.
This study provides a new method to calculate the displace-
ment factor in the prediction of mining subsidence.
 P. Li et al. / Mining Science and Technology (China) 21 (2011) 307–311
Acknowledgments
The authors thank the Research and Innovation Program for
College and University Graduate Students in Jiangsu Province
(No. CX10B_141Z) and the National Natural Science Foundation
of China (No. 41071273) for support of this project.
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