Explore Ebooks

Categories

Explore Audiobooks

Categories

Explore Magazines

Categories

Explore Documents

Categories

100%(7)100% found this document useful (7 votes)

421 views58 pagesThis is the presentation that is used as an Reliability Awareness for Engineers in my company,

© Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

This is the presentation that is used as an Reliability Awareness for Engineers in my company,

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

100%(7)100% found this document useful (7 votes)

421 views58 pagesThis is the presentation that is used as an Reliability Awareness for Engineers in my company,

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

You are on page 1of 58

VEM RAL

2. DFR Process

3. Terminology

4. Weibull Plotting

5. System Reliability

6. DFR Testing

7. Accelerated Testing

VEM RAL

VEM RAL

2. Minimum Downtime…. i.e., Maximum MTBF.

3. Endurance…. i.e., # operations, robust to

environmental changes.

VEM RAL

VEM Reliable Product Vision RAL

Failure Mode

Identification Failure Rate Resources/Costs

(Pre-Launch)

Release Release

Resources/costs

# Failure Modes

DFR

Failure Rate

No DFR 50%

No DFR

No DFR

DFR Goal DFR

5%

Time Time Time

Identify & “eliminate” Start with lower “running Reduce overall costs by

inherent failure modes rate”, then aggressively employing DFR from the

before launch. (Minimize “grow” reliability. (Reduce beginning.

Excursions!) Warranty Costs)

Take control of our product quality and aggressively drive to our goals

VEM RAL

2. DFR - Process

VEM RAL

NPI Process

• Customer Metrics DP0 Specify DP1 Design DP2 Implement DP3

• Develop Reliability metrics • FRACAS system using ‘Clarify’

• Establish Reliability goals • Correlate field data & test results

Design

• Construct functional block diagrams • Continue Growth Testing

• Define Reliability model • Accelerated Tests

• Apply robust design tools

• ID critical comps. & failure potential • Demonstration Testing

• DFSS tools

• Allocate reliability targets • Agency / Compliance Testing

• Generate life predictions

• Begin Growth Testing

VEM RAL

Legacy Product DFR Process . . .

Review Historical Data

• Review historical reliability & field failure data

1 • Review field RMA’s

• Review customer environments & applications

• Develop product Fault Tree Analysis

2 • Identify and pareto observed failure modes

• Develop P-Diagrams & System Block Diagram

• Generate Reliability Weibull plots for operational endurance

3 • Allocate reliability goals to key subsystems

• Identify reliability gaps between existing product & goals for each subsystem

• Determine root cause for all identified failures

4 • Redesign process or parts to address failure mode pareto

• Validate reliability improvement through accelerated life testing & field betas

• Implement process firewalls & sensors to hold design robustness

5 • Develop and implement long-term reliability validation audit

VEM Design For Reliability Program Summary RAL

Keys to DFR:

• Customer reliability expectations & needs must be fully understood

VEM RAL

3. DFR - Terminology

VEM RAL

What do we mean by

1. Reliability

2. Failure

3. Failure Rate

4. Hazard Rate

5. MTTF / MTBF

VEM RAL

1. Reliability R(t): The probability that an item will perform its intended

function without failure under stated conditions for a

specified period of time

intended function

3. Failure Rate [F(t)]: The ratio of no. of failures within a sample to the

cumulative operating time.

given that it has survived until that time, sometimes

called as instantaneous failure rate.

VEM Failure Rate Calculation Example RAL

and two of them fail. (assume they fail at the end of the

week). What is the Failure Rate?

Failure Rate =

2 failures 2

1000 * 24 * 7 hours

= failures /hour

168 , 000

= 1.19E-5 failures/hr

VEM RAL

failure. The value of f(t) is the probability of the product failing precisely at

time t.

f (t)

t

time

VEM RAL

Common Distributions

Distribution Function, f(t) Range, t

−λt

Exponential f t =λe 0≤t∞

t

β t β−1 − β

Weibull f t = ⋅ ⋅e β 0≤t∞

η η

2

− t− μ

1 2σ

2

Normal f t = ⋅e −∞t ∞

σ 2π

ln t −μ 2

Log 1 2σ

2

0≤t∞

Normal f t = ⋅e

σt 2π

VEM RAL

The Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) represents the probability that the product

fails at some time prior to t. It is the integral of the PDF evaluated from 0 to t.

t

CDF =F t =∫ f t dt

0

f (t)

t1

time

Cumulative

Distribution Function

VEM RAL

The reliability of a product is the probability that it does not fail before time t. It is therefore

the complement of the CDF:

t

R t =1−F t =1−∫ f t dt Typical characteristics:

or

0

• when t=0, R(t)=1

∞ • when t→∞, R(t) →0

R t =∫ f t dt

t

f (t)

Probability Density Function

R(t) = 1-F(t)

time

t

Reliability Audit Lab

VEM RAL

The hazard function is defined as the limit of the failure rate as Δt

approaches zero.

obtained as

Δt -> 0

The hazard function or hazard rate h(t) is the conditional probability of failure

in the interval t to (t + Δt), given that there was no failure at t. It is expressed

as

VEM RAL

Hazard Functions

As shown the hazard rate is a function of time.

The sample will experience a high failure rate at the beginning of the

operation time due to weak or substandard components, manufacturing

imperfections, design errors and installation defects. This period of

decreasing failure rate is referred to as the “infant mortality region”

viewpoints as it causes an unnecessary repair cost for the manufacturer

and an interruption of product usage for the consumer.

systems or components before shipments are made, by improving the

manufacturing process and by improving the quality control of the products.

VEM RAL

At the end of the early failure-rate region, the failure rate will eventually

reach a constant value. During this constant failure-rate region the failures

do not follow a predictable pattern but occur at random due to the changes

in the applied load.

failures during the constant failure rate region.

The third and final region of the failure-rate curve is the wear-out region.

The beginning of the wear out region is noticed when the failure rate starts

to increase significantly more than the constant failure rate value and the

failures are no longer attributed to randomness but are due to the age and

wear of the components.

To minimize the effect of the wear-out region, one must use periodic

preventive maintenance or consider replacement of the product.

VEM Product's Hazard Rate Vs. Time : RAL

“The Bathtub Curve”

Random Failure

Infant Mortality (Useful Life) Wear out

h(t) decreasing

h(t) increasing

Hazard Rate, h(t)

h(t) constant

Defects Failures

Random

Failures

Time

VEM RAL

failure (MTTF). It should not be confused with the mean time between

failure (MTBF). We refer to the expected time between two successive

failures as the MTTF when the system is non-repairable.

time to failure for them. Assume that the observed times to failure are

t1, t2, .........,tn. The estimated mean time to failure, MTTF is

MTTF = (1/n)Σ ti

Useful Life Metrics: Mean Time

VEM RAL

Between Failures (MTBF)

item, the ratio of the cumulative operating time to the

number of failures for that item.

(also Mean Cycles Between Failures, MCBF, etc.)

six times during its life and provides 45,000

hours of service. Calculate MTBF.

MTBF = = = 7,500 hours

¿ of failures 6

MTBF or MTTF is a widely-used metric during the

Useful Life period, when the hazard rate is constant

VEM RAL

The Exponential Distribution

If the hazard rate is constant over time, then the product follows the exponential

distribution. This is often used for electronic components.

ht = λ=constant

1

MTBF mean time between failures =

λ

−λt

f t =λe

−λt

F t =1−e

Rt =e−λt

1

−λ

At MTBF: R t =e−λt =e λ

=e−1 =36. 8

Appropriate tool if failure rate is known to be constant

VEM RAL

The Exponential Distribution

0.0003

λ=.0003

0.0002

0.0001

λ=.0001

0 4 4 4 4 4

0 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10

Time to Failure

1

λ=.0001

0.667

CDF: F(t)

λ=.0002

0.333

λ=.0003

0 4 4 4 4 4

0 1 10 2 10 3 10 4 10 5 10

Time

Reliability Audit Lab

VEM RAL

Useful Life Metrics: Reliability

Reliability can be described by the single parameter exponential distribution when

the Hazard Rate, λ, is constant (i.e. the “Useful Life” portion of the bathtub curve),

R= e

−

t

MTBF =e − FR t Where: t = Mission length

(uptime or cycles

in question)

of operating for 30 days without failure is ...

R=e

−

30 ∗ 24 hours

7500 hours = 0 .908 = 90 . 8

A mathematical model for reliability during Useful Life

VEM RAL

VEM RAL

Weibull Probability Distribution

engineer Waloddi Weibull in the early 1950’s

• Statistically represented fatigue failures

• Weibull probability density function (PDF,

distribution of values):

β

β -1 − t

β t η

f t = β

e

η

Equation valid for minimum life = 0

β = Weibull Shape Parameter, “Slope”

Waloddi Weibull 1887-1979

η = Weibull Scale Parameter, “Characteristic Life”

VEM The Weibull Distribution RAL

most real-life systems because the time dependency of the failure rate

can be adjusted.

β

h t = β t β -1

η

β

β−1 − t

βt η

f t = β e

η

β

− t

η

R t =1−F t =e

VEM RAL

Weibull PDF

β

β−1 − t

• Exponential when β = 1.0 βt η

f t = β e

• Approximately normal when β = 3.44 η

• Time dependent hazard rate

0 .0 0 5

0 .0 0 4

β=0.5

η=1000

0 .0 0 3 β=3.44

η=1000

0 .0 0 2

β=1.0

η=1000

0 .0 0 1

VEM RAL

Weibull Hazard Function “Wear-Out”

f t f t

ht = =

1 - F t R t 0.006

β=0.5 β=3.44

[ ] η=1000

β−1 β

β t

exp −

t

0.004

η=1000

h η η

ht =

{ [ ]}

β h(t)

t β=1.0

1 - 1 - exp −

η 0.002

η=1000

β

ht = β

t β -1 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

η

Time

β < 1: Highest failure rate early-

“Infant Mortality” β = 1: Constant failure rate

VEM Weibull Reliability Function RAL

β

− t β=3.44

η

R t =1−F t =e η=1000

0.8

β=1.0

0.6

η=1000

R(t) β=0.5

0.4

η=1000

0.2

0

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Time

VEM RAL

Beta (β): The slope of the Weibull CDF when printed on Weibull paper

B-life: A common way to express values of the cumulative density function - B10

refers to the time at which 10% of the parts are expected to have failed.

failure occurs at some time before time t.

Eta (η): The characteristic life, or time at which 63.2% of the parts are expected to

have failed. Also expressed as the B63.2 life. This is the y-intercept of the

CDF function when plotted on Weibull paper.

over time.

Weibull plot: A plot where the x-axis is scaled as ln(time) and the y-axis is scaled as

ln(ln(1 / (1-CDF(t))). The Weibull CDF plotted on Weibull paper will be a

straight line of slope β and y intercept = ln(ln(1 / (1-CDF(0))) = η.

VEM Weibull Analysis

RAL

• Log-log plot of probability of

failure versus age for a product

or component Weibull Best Fit

Observed

confidence intervals Failures

interpreted graphical read-out

plotted against original product

or against goals

VEM Weibull Shape Parameter (β ) and RAL

Scale Parameter (η ) Defined

For the Weibull distribution, the slope describes the

steepness of the Weibull best-fit line (see following

slides for more details). β also has a relationship

with the trend of the hazard rate, as shown on the

“bathtub curves” on a subsequent slide.

For the Weibull distribution, the characteristic life is

equal to the scale parameter, η. This is the time at

which 63.2% of the product will have failed.

VEM β and the Bathtub Curve RAL

β<1 β=1

• Implies “infant mortality” • Implies failures are “random”, individually

unpredictable

• If this occurs:

Failed products “not to print” • An old part is as good as a new part (burn-

Manufacturing or assembly defects in not appropriate)

Burn-in can be helpful

• If this occurs:

• If a component survives infant mortality Failures due to external stress,

phase, likelihood of failure decreases with maintenance or human errors.

age. Possible mixture of failure modes

1<β<4 β>4

• Implies mild wearout • Implies rapid wearout

Low cycle fatigue Material properties

Corrosion or Erosion Brittle materials like ceramics

Scheduled replacement may be cost

effective • Not a bad thing if it happens after mission

life has been exceeded.

VEM RAL

VEM RAL

to a specific design in order to achieve desired functions with acceptable

performance and reliability measures.

configuration in which they are arranged have a direct effect on the

system performance an its reliability. For example, a designer may use a

smaller number of high-quality components and configure them in a such

a way to result in a highly reliable system, or a designer may use larger

number of lower-quality components and configure them differently in

order to achieve the same level of reliability.

compared with an acceptable reliability level. If it does not meet the

required level, the system should be redesigned and its reliability should

be re-evaluated.

Reliability Audit Lab

VEM RAL

Reliability Block Diagram (RBD) Technique

block diagram which is a graphical representation of the components of the

system and how they are connected.

The purpose of RBD technique is to represent failure and success criteria

pictorially and to use the resulting diagram to evaluate System Reliability.

Benefits

The pictorial representation means that models are easily understood and

therefore readily checked.

Block diagrams are used to identify the relationship between elements in the

system. The overall system reliability can then be calculated from the

reliabilities of the blocks using the laws of probability.

Block diagrams can be used for the evaluation of system availability

provided that both the repair of blocks and failures are independent

events, i.e. provided the time taken to repair a block is dependent only on

the block concerned and is independent of repair to any other block

Reliability Audit Lab

VEM RAL

Elementary models

Before beginning the model construction, consideration should be given to

the best way of dividing the system into blocks. It is particularly

important that each block should be statistically independent of all

other blocks (i.e. no unit or component should be common to a number

of blocks).

Series

Active parallel

m-out-of-n

Standby models

VEM Typical RBD configurations and related formulae RAL

Figure a shows the units A,B,C,….Z constituting a system. The interpretation can be stated as

‘any unit failing causes the system as a whole to fail’, and the system is referred to as active series system.

Under these conditions, the reliability R(s) of the system is given by

R(s) = Ra * Rb * Rc * ………Rz

I A B C Z O

a) Series System

Figure b shows the units X and Y that are operating in such a way that the system will survive as long as

At lest one of the unit survives. This type of system is referred to as an active parallel system.

R(s) = 1 – (1 – Rx)(1 – Ry)

X

I O

Y

b) Parallel System

VEM RAL

When blocks such as X and Y themselves comprise sub-blocks in series, block diagrams of the

type are illustrated in figure c.

Rx = Ra1 * Rb1 * Rc1 *……..Rz1;

Ry = Ra2 * Rb2 * Rc2 *……..Rz2

Rs = 1 – (1 – Rx)(1 – Ry)

A1 B1 C1 Z1

O

I

A2 B2 C2 Z2

c) Series / ParallelSystem

VEM RAL

m-out-of-n units

The figure represents instances where system success is assured whenever at least m of

n identical units are in an operational state. Here m = 2, n = 3.

X 2/3

I O

X

d) m-out-of-n System

VEM RAL

VEM Reliability Testing - Why? RAL

• Determine if a product’s design is capable of performing its intended

function for the desired period of time.

reflect the performance of the entire population.

points in the design.

• Identify failures caused by severe applications that exceed the ratings,

and recognize opportunities for the product to safely perform under

more diverse applications.

VEM Reliability Testing - Measures

RAL

• What is the expected life?

.

• Which distribution does my data follow?

. ..

• What does my hazard function look like? ..

• What failure modes are present?

These metrics and more can be obtained with the right reliability test

VEM RAL

- Normal Testing

- Accelerated Testing

VEM RAL

Reliability Testing - Growth Testing

capabilities and inherent failure mechanisms.

• Emphasis is on discovering & “eliminating” failure modes

• Failures are welcome. . . represent data sources

• Failures in development = less failures in field

• Used with a changing design to drive reliability growth

• Sample size is typically small

• Test Types: Normal or Accelerated Testing

• Can be very helpful early in process when done on competitor

products which are sufficiently similar to the new design.

VEM RAL

Reliability Testing … Demonstration Testing

availability & design requirements under realistic conditions.

• Failures are no longer hoped for, because they jeopardize compliance (though

it’s still better to catch a problem before rather than after launch!)

(subsequent design changes may invalidate the demonstrated reliability results)

• Sample size is typically larger, due to need for degree of confidence in results

and increased availability of samples.

VEM Reliability Testing … Production Reliability RAL

Acceptance Testing (PRAT)

processes related to move from prototypes to full production

does not affect product reliability

prototype results are valid in full production

Environmental Stress Screening (ESS), Burn in

VEM Reliability Testing … Validation RAL

actual customer environment/application.

VEM RAL

Reliability Testing … The Path

NPI (New Products):

Develop Models NPI Pilot Readiness Reliability Demonstration Keep updated dashboards

Initial Design Mature Design Audit Programs Ensure Data Collection

Accelerated Testing Improve future design

Growth Testing Demonstration Testing Acceptance Testing Validation Testing

Legacy Products:

Reproduce Failure

Create case Clarify Redefine models Reliability Demonstration

Reliability Verification

Product redesign Audit Programs

Acquisition Growth Testing Demonstration Testing Acceptance Testing

Validation Testing

Reliability Tests are critical at all stages!

VEM RAL

VEM Accelerated Testing RAL

life of a product by developing a model that correlates reliability under

accelerated conditions to reliability under normal conditions.

Model:

BASIC CONCEPT The model is how we extrapolate back

to normal stress levels.

Time to Failure

..

.

.. Common Models:

. • Arrhenius: Thermal

• Inverse Power Law: Non-Thermal

Stress

}

}

• Eyring: Combined

To predict here, we test here

(Normal stress level) (Elevated stress level)

VEM

Accelerated Testing

RAL

failure mechanism(s) - must be relevant (temp. & vibration usually apply)

the acceleration of this failure mechanism, as a function of the accelerating

stress.

operating & destructive limits to ensure that the elevated stress level does

not introduce new failure modes which would not occur at normal

operating stress levels.

VEM RAL

One of the most important factors that influence the design process of a

product or a system is the reliability values of its components.

system, we may follow one or more of the following approaches.

➢Historical Data

➢Operational Life Testing

➢Burn-In Testing

VEM RAL

The failure data for the components can be found in data banks such as

➢MIL-HDBK-217 (which includes failure data for components as well as

procedures for reliability prediction),

➢AT&T Reliability Manual and

➢Bell Communications Research Reliability Manual.

In such data banks and manuals, the failure data are collected from

different manufacturers and presented with a set of multiplying factors

that relate to different manufacturer's quality levels and environmental

conditions