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Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019


October 3rd 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 30.8 41.2 9.7 15.1 - 2.2
Quebec 21.4 35.0 9.7 7.9 23.0 2.4
Ontario 33.3 39.5 14.8 9.2 - 2.0
Prairies 48.3 24.4 13.6 8.2 - 3.7
Alberta 57.4 20.1 11.9 5.0 - 4.1
BC 32.6 30.0 17.9 15.7 - 2.7
Canada* 34.8 33.7 13.5 9.8 4.8 2.7

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 24 1 0 0
Quebec 14 43 1 0 20 0
Ontario 39 71 11 0 0
Prairies 22 5 1 0 0
Alberta 33 1 0 0 0
BC 22 10 5 4 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 137 157 19 4 20 0 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.


Avalon 28% 47% 8% 15% 2%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 22% 65% 0% 13% 2%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 30% 57% 0% 12% 2%
NFL

Labrador 26% 55% 6% 12% 2%


Long Range Mountains 25% 57% 3% 15% 2%
St. John's East 21% 32% 33% 14% 2%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 18% 43% 25% 13% 2%
Cardigan 29% 49% 3% 19% 2%
Charlottetown 28% 40% 14% 18% 2%
PEI
PEI Egmont 41% 33% 11% 15% 3%
Malpeque 30% 46% 3% 21% 2%
Cape Breton--Canso 28% 56% 0% 16% 2%
Central Nova 39% 43% 2% 16% 2%
Cumberland--Colchester 38% 47% 0% 15% 2%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 27% 42% 15% 16% 2%
Halifax 22% 37% 25% 16% 2%
NS

Halifax West 28% 52% 4% 16% 2%


Kings--Hants 31% 54% 0% 15% 2%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 29% 33% 23% 15% 2%
South Shore--St. Margarets 35% 41% 9% 15% 2%
Sydney--Victoria 25% 55% 5% 15% 2%
West Nova 38% 46% 0% 16% 3%
Acadie--Bathurst 21% 36% 27% 15% 2%
Beauséjour 24% 53% 7% 16% 2%
Fredericton 41% 33% 2% 25% 2%
Fundy Royal 50% 24% 10% 16% 3%
Madawaska--Restigouche 30% 40% 16% 14% 2%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 47% 31% 7% 15% 3%


Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 34% 41% 8% 17% 2%
New Brunswick Southwest 51% 27% 5% 17% 3%
Saint John--Rothesay 43% 32% 10% 15% 3%
Tobique--Mactaquac 49% 30% 3% 17% 3%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 15% 33% 19% 8% 22% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 13% 30% 24% 8% 24% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 13% 46% 15% 8% 17% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 17% 46% 5% 8% 22% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 16% 43% 8% 8% 22% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 13% 43% 8% 7% 27% 2%
Beauce 32% 20% 0% 7% 11% 30%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
36% 26% 6% 7% 22% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 35% 25% 8% 8% 19% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 16% 23% 6% 8% 44% 2%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 53% 20% 0% 9% 15% 4%
Beloeil--Chambly 14% 27% 13% 8% 36% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 15% 20% 24% 7% 31% 2%
Bourassa 15% 54% 0% 8% 21% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 16% 43% 8% 8% 23% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 17% 49% 9% 8% 15% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 46% 23% 3% 8% 17% 3%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 16% 38% 7% 8% 29% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 46% 30% 2% 8% 13% 2%
Compton--Stanstead 17% 36% 11% 8% 26% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 16% 52% 8% 8% 15% 2%
Drummond 23% 26% 13% 8% 28% 2%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 11% 37% 19% 7% 24% 2%
Gatineau 14% 54% 10% 7% 13% 2%
Hochelaga 12% 30% 14% 9% 32% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 17% 56% 1% 7% 17% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 13% 52% 15% 8% 11% 2%
Joliette 16% 29% 7% 8% 38% 2%
Jonquière 30% 25% 11% 8% 24% 3%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 13% 28% 11% 8% 37% 2%
La Prairie 17% 36% 7% 8% 31% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 33% 24% 11% 7% 21% 3%
Lac-Saint-Louis 21% 61% 0% 8% 8% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 12% 41% 15% 9% 22% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 15% 33% 7% 8% 34% 2%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 10% 34% 17% 9% 27% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 24% 49% 1% 8% 17% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 53% 21% 0% 7% 15% 4%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 15% 35% 8% 9% 32% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 14% 30% 14% 8% 32% 2%


Louis-Hébert 32% 35% 3% 8% 19% 3%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 53% 21% 0% 8% 14% 4%
Manicouagan 16% 30% 0% 8% 44% 2%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 18% 42% 4% 8% 26% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 40% 28% 4% 8% 17% 3%
Mirabel 16% 26% 11% 8% 36% 2%
Montarville 16% 32% 9% 8% 33% 3%
Montcalm 15% 28% 4% 8% 42% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
32% 27% 11% 7% 19% 3%
Mount Royal 38% 45% 0% 7% 7% 3%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 19% 55% 8% 8% 8% 2%
Outremont 15% 33% 26% 9% 14% 2%
Papineau 10% 52% 11% 9% 16% 2%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 15% 27% 8% 14% 33% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 24% 55% 3% 7% 9% 2%
Pontiac 19% 55% 6% 8% 11% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 48% 21% 5% 8% 15% 4%
Québec 27% 29% 10% 9% 23% 3%
Repentigny 17% 28% 4% 8% 40% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 35% 24% 8% 7% 22% 3%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
16% 27% 18% 7% 30% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 16% 36% 11% 8% 27% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 14% 27% 11% 9% 37% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 10% 21% 33% 9% 25% 2%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 22% 27% 11% 8% 29% 2%
Saint-Jean 16% 32% 13% 8% 29% 2%
Saint-Laurent 23% 58% 0% 8% 10% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 16% 64% 0% 7% 11% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 21% 41% 4% 8% 24% 2%
Salaberry--Suroît 15% 29% 13% 7% 33% 2%
Shefford 18% 38% 7% 8% 27% 2%
Sherbrooke 15% 30% 20% 8% 26% 2%
Terrebonne 17% 28% 7% 8% 38% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 18% 33% 6% 8% 32% 3%
Trois-Rivières 23% 30% 14% 7% 22% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 19% 45% 6% 8% 20% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 16% 48% 10% 10% 14% 2%
Vimy 19% 47% 2% 8% 21% 2%
Ajax 33% 51% 7% 8% 2%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 23% 29% 39% 7% 2%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 44% 43% 4% 8% 2%
Barrie--Innisfil 45% 31% 10% 11% 2%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 40% 36% 9% 13% 3%
Bay of Quinte 33% 45% 11% 9% 2%
Beaches--East York 15% 45% 29% 10% 2%
Brampton Centre 32% 44% 14% 8% 2%
Brampton East 22% 48% 21% 7% 2%
Brampton North 32% 44% 15% 7% 2%
Brampton South 34% 48% 9% 8% 2%
Brampton West 29% 52% 11% 7% 2%
Brantford--Brant 39% 26% 23% 9% 3%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 42% 35% 10% 11% 2%
Burlington 40% 41% 8% 10% 2%
Cambridge 37% 38% 12% 11% 2%
Carleton 44% 38% 5% 11% 2%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 38% 35% 18% 7% 2%
Davenport 12% 44% 32% 10% 2%
Don Valley East 28% 52% 8% 10% 2%
Don Valley North 36% 46% 7% 9% 2%
Don Valley West 36% 49% 4% 9% 2%
Dufferin--Caledon 42% 35% 6% 15% 2%
Durham 43% 30% 15% 10% 2%
Eglinton--Lawrence 41% 44% 5% 8% 2%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 49% 28% 14% 7% 2%
Essex 35% 17% 40% 6% 2%
Etobicoke Centre 36% 48% 6% 8% 2%
Etobicoke North 22% 58% 11% 8% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31% 49% 9% 9% 2%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 42% 34% 12% 9% 2%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 35% 48% 7% 9% 2%
Guelph 25% 44% 10% 19% 2%
Haldimand--Norfolk 44% 34% 13% 7% 2%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 43% 26% 18% 11% 2%
Hamilton Centre 15% 30% 41% 11% 3%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 24% 34% 31% 9% 2%
Hamilton Mountain 25% 29% 34% 9% 3%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 31% 43% 15% 10% 2%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 40% 37% 11% 10% 2%
Humber River--Black Creek 19% 62% 9% 9% 2%
Huron--Bruce 43% 34% 11% 10% 2%
Kanata--Carleton 37% 45% 5% 11% 2%
Kenora 28% 31% 33% 7% 2%
Kingston and the Islands 21% 50% 15% 12% 2%
King--Vaughan 43% 43% 5% 7% 2%
Kitchener Centre 29% 43% 15% 10% 3%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 35% 37% 14% 11% 3%
Kitchener--Conestoga 41% 37% 8% 10% 3%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 47% 27% 17% 8% 2%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 46% 28% 13% 11% 3%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau45%
Lakes 35% 7% 11% 2%
London North Centre 30% 47% 13% 7% 2%
London West 35% 42% 14% 7% 3%
London--Fanshawe 28% 29% 33% 7% 2%
Markham--Stouffville 34% 37% 0% 8% 2% 19%
Markham--Thornhill 31% 51% 9% 8% 2%
Markham--Unionville 48% 38% 4% 9% 2%
Milton 43% 35% 9% 10% 3%
Mississauga Centre 32% 50% 8% 8% 2%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 34% 50% 7% 7% 2%


Mississauga--Erin Mills 38% 45% 8% 7% 2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 40% 43% 7% 8% 2%
Mississauga--Malton 25% 55% 11% 7% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 39% 44% 8% 8% 2%
Nepean 34% 47% 7% 10% 2%
Newmarket--Aurora 42% 41% 7% 9% 2%
Niagara Centre 29% 31% 30% 8% 2%
Niagara Falls 37% 31% 20% 9% 2%
Niagara West 48% 29% 10% 9% 4%
Nickel Belt 16% 38% 37% 8% 2%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 28% 47% 15% 8% 2%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 38% 37% 13% 10% 2%
Oakville 40% 44% 4% 10% 2%
Oakville North--Burlington 41% 41% 6% 9% 3%
Orléans 29% 54% 6% 10% 2%
Oshawa 37% 22% 30% 9% 2%
Ottawa Centre 14% 44% 29% 11% 3%
Ottawa South 23% 54% 10% 11% 2%
Ottawa West--Nepean 29% 51% 8% 11% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 18% 52% 17% 11% 2%
Oxford 46% 29% 16% 7% 2%
Parkdale--High Park 12% 37% 38% 10% 3%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 40% 36% 9% 13% 2%
Perth--Wellington 42% 32% 14% 10% 2%
Peterborough--Kawartha 33% 38% 17% 9% 2%
Pickering--Uxbridge 37% 45% 8% 9% 2%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 49% 30% 8% 10% 2%
Richmond Hill 42% 42% 6% 8% 2%
Sarnia--Lambton 38% 23% 30% 7% 2%
Sault Ste. Marie 30% 40% 20% 7% 2%
Scarborough Centre 31% 45% 10% 9% 5%
Scarborough North 26% 43% 20% 9% 2%
Scarborough Southwest 20% 47% 22% 10% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 37% 47% 6% 9% 2%
Scarborough--Guildwood 25% 55% 9% 9% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 26% 55% 8% 9% 2%
Simcoe North 43% 34% 9% 12% 2%
Simcoe--Grey 45% 33% 8% 12% 2%
Spadina--Fort York 15% 50% 25% 9% 2%
St. Catharines 36% 39% 15% 9% 2%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 46% 35% 7% 10% 2%
Sudbury 20% 43% 27% 8% 2%
Thornhill 57% 29% 4% 7% 3%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 20% 39% 28% 10% 2%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 17% 41% 22% 19% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 20% 30% 42% 7% 2%
Toronto Centre 11% 53% 25% 10% 2%
Toronto--Danforth 9% 38% 39% 12% 2%
Toronto--St. Paul's 25% 50% 13% 10% 2%
University--Rosedale 16% 45% 27% 10% 2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 42% 44% 3% 7% 3%
Waterloo 30% 44% 13% 10% 2%
Wellington--Halton Hills 49% 31% 7% 11% 2%
Whitby 41% 40% 9% 9% 2%
Willowdale 35% 48% 5% 9% 2%
Windsor West 20% 21% 50% 6% 2%
Windsor--Tecumseh 27% 23% 42% 6% 2%
York Centre 42% 42% 6% 9% 2%
York South--Weston 18% 41% 28% 9% 4%
York--Simcoe 48% 32% 7% 10% 2%
Brandon--Souris 59% 27% -2% 12% 4%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
45% 35% 8% 9% 3%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 19% 33% 37% 7% 4%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 61% 21% 4% 10% 4%
Elmwood--Transcona 41% 15% 31% 9% 4%
Kildonan--St. Paul 48% 35% 6% 7% 4%
Portage--Lisgar 72% 16% -2% 10% 4%
Man.

Provencher 64% 24% -2% 9% 4%


Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 35% 41% 12% 9% 3%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 62% 22% 3% 9% 4%
Winnipeg Centre 18% 36% 32% 11% 3%
Winnipeg North 22% 51% 15% 9% 3%
Winnipeg South 41% 41% 7% 8% 3%
Winnipeg South Centre 35% 42% 11% 9% 3%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 68% 10% 12% 6% 4%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 72% 9% 7% 8% 4%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 36% 27% 27% 6% 4%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 69% 8% 12% 7% 4%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 61% 12% 17% 7% 4%
Prince Albert 55% 13% 21% 6% 4%
Regina--Lewvan 39% 21% 29% 8% 4%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 49% 16% 23% 9% 4%


Regina--Wascana 33% 49% 6% 8% 3%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 46% 19% 23% 8% 4%
Saskatoon--University 46% 18% 24% 8% 4%
Saskatoon West 37% 18% 33% 8% 4%
Souris--Moose Mountain 74% 7% 8% 7% 4%
Yorkton--Melville 64% 11% 14% 7% 4%
Banff--Airdrie 61% 23% 7% 6% 3%
Battle River--Crowfoot 77% 7% 7% 5% 4%
Bow River 76% 11% 6% 4% 4%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 44% 41% 6% 6% 3%
Calgary Confederation 44% 38% 8% 7% 3%
Calgary Forest Lawn 47% 31% 10% 6% 6%
Calgary Heritage 62% 21% 8% 6% 4%
Calgary Midnapore 64% 18% 8% 6% 4%
Calgary Nose Hill 58% 22% 9% 6% 5%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 58% 26% 6% 6% 3%
Calgary Shepard 64% 20% 7% 6% 4%
Calgary Signal Hill 58% 25% 6% 6% 5%
Calgary Skyview 40% 42% 9% 5% 4%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 34% 33% 25% 5% 4%
Edmonton Griesbach 39% 17% 34% 4% 5%
Edmonton Manning 44% 23% 24% 4% 4%
Edmonton Mill Woods 41% 37% 13% 4% 5%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 48% 26% 17% 4% 4%


Edmonton Strathcona 32% 28% 31% 5% 5%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 48% 30% 13% 4% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 63% 18% 10% 4% 4%
Foothills 73% 10% 7% 5% 4%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 58% 25% 8% 4% 5%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 70% 11% 9% 5% 5%
Lakeland 70% 11% 10% 4% 5%
Lethbridge 55% 15% 21% 5% 4%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 67% 15% 10% 5% 4%
Peace River--Westlock 67% 10% 14% 5% 5%
Red Deer--Mountain View 72% 10% 9% 5% 4%
Red Deer--Lacombe 68% 12% 12% 5% 4%
St. Albert--Edmonton 54% 24% 14% 4% 4%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 64% 16% 10% 5% 5%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 68% 13% 10% 5% 4%
Yellowhead 69% 11% 9% 5% 5%
Abbotsford 51% 28% 7% 11% 3%
Burnaby North--Seymour 32% 30% 22% 13% 3%
Burnaby South 25% 23% 33% 10% 8%
Cariboo--Prince George 41% 27% 19% 10% 3%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 43% 32% 12% 10% 3%
Chilliwack--Hope 46% 29% 11% 11% 4%
Cloverdale--Langley City 39% 39% 8% 12% 2%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 36% 29% 19% 12% 4%
Courtenay--Alberni 32% 18% 27% 21% 2%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 26% 20% 26% 26% 2%
Delta 37% 43% 7% 11% 2%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 21% 23% 25% 29% 2%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 33% 41% 13% 10% 2%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 41% 27% 19% 10% 3%
Kelowna--Lake Country 43% 41% 7% 7% 3%
Kootenay--Columbia 41% 15% 28% 13% 3%
Langley--Aldergrove 46% 33% 4% 13% 4%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 39% 32% 14% 12% 3%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 26% 14% 19% 38% 2%
New Westminster--Burnaby 24% 24% 33% 13% 5%
North Island--Powell River 30% 22% 29% 17% 2%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 42% 25% 18% 11% 3%


BC North Vancouver 31% 51% 0% 16% 2%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 36% 28% 22% 12% 3%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 34% 26% 26% 12% 3%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
56% 20% 8% 12% 4%
Richmond Centre 48% 36% 3% 11% 3%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 23% 13% 1% 61% 2%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 31% 15% 40% 11% 3%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 34% 24% 29% 11% 3%
South Surrey--White Rock 45% 38% 2% 12% 3%
Steveston--Richmond East 42% 39% 4% 12% 3%
Surrey Centre 24% 40% 22% 12% 2%
Surrey--Newton 20% 50% 18% 10% 2%
Vancouver Centre 19% 52% 13% 14% 3%
Vancouver East 13% 26% 41% 18% 2%
Vancouver Granville 17% 29% 10% 11% 2% 31%
Vancouver Kingsway 23% 25% 36% 11% 4%
Vancouver Quadra 27% 55% 4% 12% 2%
Vancouver South 35% 45% 7% 10% 2%
Victoria 16% 23% 22% 37% 3%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky30%
Country49% 2% 17% 2%
Yukon 27% 48% 13% 9% 2%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 22% 43% 23% 9% 2%


Nunavut 28% 42% 20% 8% 2%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats