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Electoral projections for the 2019 federal elections

Projections électorales pour l'élection fédérale de 2019


5 octobre 2019 tooclosetocall.ca
% CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.
Atlantic 29.7 42.0 10.0 15.0 - 2.4
Quebec 20.0 35.1 10.2 7.4 23.2 2.1
Ontario 33.7 39.1 14.9 9.1 - 2.2
Prairies 47.6 24.8 14.0 8.9 - 3.2
Alberta 58.1 19.6 11.4 5.4 - 4.1
BC 32.4 30.5 18.6 14.3 - 3.1
Canada* 34.4 33.9 13.6 9.5 4.9 2.7

Seats/Sièges
Atlantic 7 24 1 0 0
Quebec 14 43 2 0 19 0
Ontario 43 67 11 0 0
Prairies 21 6 1 0 0
Alberta 33 1 0 0 0
BC 19 11 7 4 0 1
Territories 0 3 0 0 0

Canada 137 155 22 4 19 0 1

Riding/Circonscription CPC LPC NDP Green Bloc PPC Ind.


Avalon 27% 48% 8% 15% 2%
Bonavista--Burin--Trinity 21% 66% 0% 13% 2%
Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame 29% 58% 0% 12% 2%
NFL

Labrador 25% 56% 7% 12% 2%


Long Range Mountains 24% 58% 4% 14% 2%
St. John's East 20% 33% 34% 14% 2%
St. John's South--Mount Pearl 17% 44% 26% 13% 2%
Cardigan 28% 50% 4% 18% 2%
Charlottetown 27% 41% 15% 18% 2%
PEI
PEI Egmont 40% 34% 11% 15% 3%
Malpeque 29% 46% 4% 21% 2%
Cape Breton--Canso 27% 57% 1% 16% 2%
Central Nova 38% 44% 3% 16% 3%
Cumberland--Colchester 37% 48% 0% 15% 3%
Dartmouth--Cole Harbour 26% 43% 16% 15% 2%
Halifax 21% 38% 25% 16% 2%
NS

Halifax West 27% 53% 4% 16% 2%


Kings--Hants 30% 55% 0% 15% 2%
Sackville--Preston--Chezzetcook 27% 33% 24% 15% 3%
South Shore--St. Margarets 34% 42% 9% 15% 3%
Sydney--Victoria 23% 56% 6% 15% 2%
West Nova 37% 47% 0% 16% 3%
Acadie--Bathurst 20% 37% 28% 15% 2%
Beauséjour 23% 53% 8% 16% 2%
Fredericton 40% 34% 2% 25% 3%
Fundy Royal 49% 25% 10% 16% 3%
Madawaska--Restigouche 28% 41% 17% 14% 3%
NB

Miramichi--Grand Lake 46% 32% 8% 15% 3%


Moncton--Riverview--Dieppe 33% 42% 9% 16% 3%
New Brunswick Southwest 50% 28% 5% 17% 3%
Saint John--Rothesay 42% 33% 10% 15% 3%
Tobique--Mactaquac 48% 31% 4% 17% 3%
Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou 14% 34% 20% 8% 23% 2%
Abitibi--Témiscamingue 11% 30% 25% 7% 24% 2%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville 11% 47% 15% 7% 17% 2%
Alfred-Pellan 16% 46% 6% 7% 23% 2%
Argenteuil--La Petite-Nation 15% 44% 9% 8% 23% 2%
Avignon--La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia 11% 44% 9% 7% 28% 2%
Beauce 31% 21% 0% 7% 11% 30%
Beauport-Côte-de-Beaupré-Île d'Orléans-Charlevoix
36% 26% 6% 7% 23% 3%
Beauport--Limoilou 34% 26% 9% 8% 20% 4%
Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel 15% 24% 6% 7% 45% 2%
Bellechasse--Les Etchemins--Lévis 52% 20% 0% 8% 16% 3%
Beloeil--Chambly 13% 28% 14% 7% 36% 2%
Berthier--Maskinongé 14% 17% 33% 7% 27% 2%
Bourassa 14% 56% 0% 8% 22% 2%
Brome--Missisquoi 15% 44% 9% 8% 23% 2%
Brossard--Saint-Lambert 16% 50% 9% 7% 16% 2%
Charlesbourg--Haute-Saint-Charles 46% 23% 3% 8% 17% 3%
Châteauguay--Lacolle 15% 39% 8% 7% 29% 2%
Chicoutimi--Le Fjord 45% 30% 2% 7% 13% 2%
Compton--Stanstead 16% 37% 12% 7% 26% 2%
Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle 14% 53% 9% 7% 15% 2%
Drummond 21% 26% 13% 8% 29% 2%
Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine 10% 38% 20% 6% 25% 2%
Gatineau 12% 55% 11% 7% 14% 2%
Hochelaga 11% 31% 15% 9% 32% 2%
Honoré-Mercier 16% 57% 2% 7% 17% 2%
Hull--Aylmer 12% 53% 16% 7% 11% 2%
Joliette 14% 29% 7% 8% 39% 2%
Jonquière 29% 25% 11% 7% 25% 2%
La Pointe-de-l'Île 12% 29% 12% 7% 38% 2%
La Prairie 16% 36% 8% 7% 31% 2%
Lac-Saint-Jean 32% 24% 12% 7% 22% 3%
Lac-Saint-Louis 20% 62% 0% 8% 8% 2%
LaSalle--Émard--Verdun 10% 42% 16% 8% 22% 2%
Laurentides--Labelle 14% 33% 8% 7% 35% 2%
Laurier--Sainte-Marie 8% 35% 18% 9% 27% 3%
Laval--Les Îles 23% 50% 1% 7% 17% 2%
Lévis--Lotbinière 52% 21% 0% 7% 16% 3%
Longueuil--Charles-LeMoyne 14% 35% 9% 8% 32% 2%
QC

Longueuil--Saint-Hubert 13% 30% 15% 8% 33% 2%


Louis-Hébert 31% 35% 4% 8% 19% 3%
Louis-Saint-Laurent 53% 21% 0% 7% 15% 3%
Manicouagan 15% 30% 0% 7% 45% 2%
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin 16% 42% 5% 7% 27% 2%
Mégantic--L'Érable 39% 28% 5% 7% 17% 3%
Mirabel 15% 27% 12% 8% 37% 2%
Montarville 15% 32% 9% 8% 33% 3%
Montcalm 14% 28% 5% 7% 43% 2%
Montmagny--L'Islet--Kamouraska--Rivière-du-Loup
31% 28% 12% 7% 20% 3%
Mount Royal 38% 46% 0% 6% 7% 3%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount 17% 56% 9% 8% 8% 2%
Outremont 14% 34% 27% 9% 15% 2%
Papineau 9% 53% 11% 8% 16% 1%
Pierre-Boucher--Les Patriotes--Verchères 14% 28% 9% 14% 33% 2%
Pierrefonds--Dollard 23% 56% 4% 6% 9% 2%
Pontiac 18% 55% 6% 7% 11% 2%
Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier 47% 22% 5% 7% 15% 3%
Québec 26% 29% 10% 8% 24% 2%
Repentigny 16% 29% 5% 8% 41% 2%
Richmond--Arthabaska 35% 24% 9% 7% 23% 3%
Rimouski-Neigette--Témiscouata--Les Basques
14% 28% 19% 7% 30% 2%
Rivière-des-Mille-Îles 15% 37% 11% 7% 28% 2%
Rivière-du-Nord 13% 27% 12% 8% 38% 2%
Rosemont--La Petite-Patrie 9% 21% 34% 9% 26% 2%
Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot 21% 28% 12% 8% 30% 2%
Saint-Jean 15% 33% 14% 7% 30% 2%
Saint-Laurent 22% 59% 0% 7% 10% 2%
Saint-Léonard--Saint-Michel 15% 65% 0% 7% 11% 2%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain 20% 41% 5% 7% 25% 2%
Salaberry--Suroît 14% 29% 14% 7% 34% 2%
Shefford 16% 38% 8% 8% 28% 2%
Sherbrooke 14% 30% 21% 7% 27% 2%
Terrebonne 16% 29% 7% 7% 39% 2%
Thérèse-De Blainville 17% 34% 7% 8% 32% 3%
Trois-Rivières 22% 30% 15% 7% 23% 3%
Vaudreuil--Soulanges 17% 46% 7% 7% 20% 2%
Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs 15% 49% 10% 10% 14% 2%
Vimy 18% 48% 2% 8% 22% 2%
Ajax 33% 50% 7% 8% 2%
Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing 23% 29% 39% 7% 2%
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 44% 42% 4% 8% 2%
Barrie--Innisfil 45% 31% 10% 11% 2%
Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 41% 35% 9% 12% 3%
Bay of Quinte 33% 45% 11% 9% 2%
Beaches--East York 16% 44% 29% 10% 2%
Brampton Centre 33% 44% 14% 7% 2%
Brampton East 23% 48% 21% 6% 2%
Brampton North 32% 44% 15% 7% 2%
Brampton South 34% 47% 9% 8% 2%
Brampton West 29% 51% 11% 7% 2%
Brantford--Brant 40% 25% 23% 8% 3%
Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound 42% 34% 10% 11% 2%
Burlington 41% 40% 8% 10% 2%
Cambridge 37% 38% 12% 11% 2%
Carleton 45% 37% 5% 11% 2%
Chatham-Kent--Leamington 38% 35% 18% 7% 2%
Davenport 12% 44% 32% 10% 2%
Don Valley East 28% 52% 9% 10% 2%
Don Valley North 36% 46% 7% 9% 2%
Don Valley West 36% 48% 4% 9% 3%
Dufferin--Caledon 42% 34% 6% 15% 2%
Durham 44% 30% 15% 10% 2%
Eglinton--Lawrence 41% 44% 5% 8% 3%
Elgin--Middlesex--London 49% 27% 14% 7% 2%
Essex 35% 17% 40% 6% 2%
Etobicoke Centre 36% 48% 6% 8% 2%
Etobicoke North 22% 57% 11% 8% 2%
Etobicoke--Lakeshore 31% 49% 9% 9% 2%
Flamborough--Glanbrook 42% 34% 12% 9% 2%
Glengarry--Prescott--Russell 35% 47% 7% 9% 3%
Guelph 25% 43% 10% 18% 2%
Haldimand--Norfolk 45% 33% 13% 7% 2%
Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes--Brock 43% 26% 18% 11% 2%
Hamilton Centre 15% 30% 41% 11% 3%
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek 24% 34% 31% 9% 2%
Hamilton Mountain 25% 28% 34% 9% 4%
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 31% 43% 15% 10% 2%
Hastings--Lennox and Addington 40% 36% 11% 10% 2%
Humber River--Black Creek 19% 62% 9% 9% 2%
Huron--Bruce 44% 33% 12% 9% 2%
Kanata--Carleton 37% 45% 5% 10% 2%
Kenora 28% 30% 33% 7% 2%
Kingston and the Islands 22% 49% 15% 11% 2%
King--Vaughan 43% 43% 5% 7% 2%
Kitchener Centre 29% 43% 15% 10% 3%
Kitchener South--Hespeler 35% 37% 14% 11% 4%
Kitchener--Conestoga 41% 37% 8% 10% 3%
Lambton--Kent--Middlesex 47% 27% 17% 7% 2%
Lanark--Frontenac--Kingston 46% 28% 13% 11% 3%
Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau46%
Lakes 34% 7% 11% 2%
London North Centre 31% 47% 13% 7% 2%
London West 35% 42% 14% 6% 3%
London--Fanshawe 29% 29% 33% 7% 2%
Markham--Stouffville 34% 37% 0% 8% 2% 19%
Markham--Thornhill 31% 50% 9% 8% 2%
Markham--Unionville 48% 38% 4% 9% 2%
Milton 43% 35% 9% 10% 3%
Mississauga Centre 33% 50% 8% 7% 2%
Ont.

Mississauga East--Cooksville 34% 50% 7% 7% 2%


Mississauga--Erin Mills 38% 45% 8% 7% 2%
Mississauga--Lakeshore 40% 43% 7% 8% 3%
Mississauga--Malton 26% 55% 11% 7% 2%
Mississauga--Streetsville 39% 43% 8% 8% 2%
Nepean 35% 46% 7% 10% 2%
Newmarket--Aurora 42% 40% 7% 9% 2%
Niagara Centre 29% 31% 30% 8% 2%
Niagara Falls 38% 31% 20% 9% 2%
Niagara West 49% 28% 10% 9% 4%
Nickel Belt 16% 38% 37% 8% 2%
Nipissing--Timiskaming 29% 47% 15% 8% 2%
Northumberland--Peterborough South 38% 37% 13% 10% 2%
Oakville 41% 44% 5% 9% 2%
Oakville North--Burlington 41% 41% 6% 9% 3%
Orléans 29% 53% 6% 10% 2%
Oshawa 37% 22% 30% 9% 2%
Ottawa Centre 14% 43% 29% 11% 3%
Ottawa South 23% 54% 10% 11% 2%
Ottawa West--Nepean 29% 50% 8% 11% 2%
Ottawa--Vanier 18% 51% 17% 11% 3%
Oxford 46% 29% 16% 7% 2%
Parkdale--High Park 12% 37% 38% 10% 3%
Parry Sound--Muskoka 40% 35% 9% 13% 2%
Perth--Wellington 43% 32% 14% 10% 2%
Peterborough--Kawartha 34% 38% 17% 9% 2%
Pickering--Uxbridge 37% 45% 8% 9% 2%
Renfrew--Nipissing--Pembroke 50% 30% 8% 10% 2%
Richmond Hill 42% 41% 6% 8% 2%
Sarnia--Lambton 38% 23% 30% 6% 2%
Sault Ste. Marie 31% 40% 20% 7% 2%
Scarborough Centre 31% 45% 10% 9% 5%
Scarborough North 26% 43% 20% 8% 2%
Scarborough Southwest 20% 47% 22% 10% 2%
Scarborough--Agincourt 37% 47% 6% 8% 2%
Scarborough--Guildwood 26% 55% 9% 8% 2%
Scarborough--Rouge Park 26% 54% 9% 9% 2%
Simcoe North 43% 34% 9% 12% 2%
Simcoe--Grey 46% 32% 8% 12% 2%
Spadina--Fort York 15% 49% 25% 9% 2%
St. Catharines 37% 38% 15% 8% 2%
Stormont--Dundas--South Glengarry 47% 34% 7% 10% 2%
Sudbury 21% 43% 27% 8% 2%
Thornhill 57% 29% 4% 6% 3%
Thunder Bay--Rainy River 21% 39% 28% 10% 2%
Thunder Bay--Superior North 17% 40% 22% 19% 2%
Timmins--James Bay 20% 29% 42% 7% 2%
Toronto Centre 12% 53% 25% 10% 2%
Toronto--Danforth 9% 38% 39% 12% 2%
Toronto--St. Paul's 26% 50% 13% 10% 2%
University--Rosedale 17% 45% 27% 10% 2%
Vaughan--Woodbridge 43% 44% 3% 7% 4%
Waterloo 31% 44% 13% 10% 2%
Wellington--Halton Hills 49% 31% 7% 11% 2%
Whitby 41% 40% 9% 9% 2%
Willowdale 36% 48% 5% 9% 2%
Windsor West 20% 21% 50% 6% 2%
Windsor--Tecumseh 27% 22% 42% 6% 2%
York Centre 42% 42% 6% 9% 2%
York South--Weston 18% 41% 28% 9% 4%
York--Simcoe 49% 31% 7% 10% 2%
Brandon--Souris 59% 28% -2% 12% 3%
Charleswood--St. James--Assiniboia--Headingley
44% 35% 8% 10% 3%
Churchill--Keewatinook Aski 18% 33% 38% 8% 3%
Dauphin--Swan River--Neepawa 60% 22% 5% 11% 3%
Elmwood--Transcona 40% 15% 32% 10% 3%
Kildonan--St. Paul 47% 35% 6% 8% 3%
Portage--Lisgar 72% 16% -2% 10% 3%
Man.

Provencher 64% 25% -2% 10% 3%


Saint Boniface--Saint Vital 34% 41% 13% 9% 3%
Selkirk--Interlake--Eastman 61% 22% 4% 10% 3%
Winnipeg Centre 17% 36% 32% 11% 3%
Winnipeg North 21% 51% 15% 10% 3%
Winnipeg South 40% 41% 7% 9% 3%
Winnipeg South Centre 34% 42% 11% 10% 3%
Battlefords--Lloydminster 67% 11% 12% 7% 3%
Cypress Hills--Grasslands 71% 9% 8% 8% 4%
Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River 35% 27% 28% 7% 3%
Carlton Trail--Eagle Creek 68% 8% 13% 7% 3%
Moose Jaw--Lake Centre--Lanigan 60% 12% 18% 7% 3%
Prince Albert 54% 14% 22% 7% 3%
Regina--Lewvan 38% 21% 29% 9% 3%
Sask.

Regina--Qu'Appelle 48% 16% 24% 9% 3%


Regina--Wascana 33% 49% 6% 9% 3%
Saskatoon--Grasswood 45% 19% 23% 9% 3%
Saskatoon--University 45% 18% 25% 9% 3%
Saskatoon West 37% 18% 33% 9% 3%
Souris--Moose Mountain 74% 7% 8% 8% 3%
Yorkton--Melville 63% 12% 14% 8% 3%
Banff--Airdrie 61% 22% 7% 6% 3%
Battle River--Crowfoot 77% 6% 7% 6% 4%
Bow River 76% 10% 5% 4% 4%
Calgary Centre/Calgary-Centre 44% 40% 6% 6% 3%
Calgary Confederation 45% 37% 7% 7% 3%
Calgary Forest Lawn 47% 30% 10% 7% 6%
Calgary Heritage 62% 20% 7% 6% 4%
Calgary Midnapore 65% 17% 8% 7% 4%
Calgary Nose Hill 59% 21% 9% 7% 5%
Calgary Rocky Ridge 59% 26% 6% 6% 4%
Calgary Shepard 64% 19% 7% 7% 4%
Calgary Signal Hill 59% 25% 5% 7% 5%
Calgary Skyview 40% 41% 8% 6% 4%
Edmonton Centre/Edmonton-Centre 35% 32% 24% 5% 4%
Edmonton Griesbach 40% 17% 33% 5% 5%
Edmonton Manning 45% 23% 23% 5% 4%
Edmonton Mill Woods 41% 37% 13% 5% 5%
Alb.

Edmonton Riverbend 49% 25% 17% 5% 4%


Edmonton Strathcona 33% 27% 30% 5% 5%
Edmonton West/Edmonton-Ouest 49% 30% 13% 4% 4%
Edmonton--Wetaskiwin 64% 18% 9% 5% 4%
Foothills 74% 10% 6% 6% 4%
Fort McMurray--Cold Lake 59% 25% 8% 4% 5%
Grande Prairie--Mackenzie 71% 11% 8% 6% 5%
Lakeland 71% 10% 10% 5% 5%
Lethbridge 56% 15% 20% 5% 4%
Medicine Hat--Cardston--Warner 67% 14% 10% 5% 4%
Peace River--Westlock 67% 9% 14% 5% 5%
Red Deer--Mountain View 72% 10% 8% 5% 4%
Red Deer--Lacombe 69% 11% 11% 5% 4%
St. Albert--Edmonton 55% 23% 14% 5% 4%
Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan 65% 16% 10% 5% 5%
Sturgeon River--Parkland 69% 12% 10% 5% 4%
Yellowhead 70% 11% 9% 5% 5%
Abbotsford 51% 28% 7% 10% 3%
Burnaby North--Seymour 39% 31% 17% 13%
Burnaby South 25% 23% 34% 9% 9%
Cariboo--Prince George 41% 28% 20% 9% 3%
Central Okanagan--Similkameen--Nicola 43% 33% 13% 9% 3%
Chilliwack--Hope 45% 29% 12% 10% 4%
Cloverdale--Langley City 38% 40% 8% 10% 3%
Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam 36% 30% 20% 10% 5%
Courtenay--Alberni 31% 18% 29% 19% 3%
Cowichan--Malahat--Langford 26% 20% 27% 24% 3%
Delta 36% 44% 7% 10% 3%
Esquimalt--Saanich--Sooke 21% 24% 26% 27% 2%
Fleetwood--Port Kells 33% 42% 14% 9% 3%
Kamloops--Thompson--Cariboo 40% 27% 20% 9% 3%
Kelowna--Lake Country 43% 41% 8% 5% 3%
Kootenay--Columbia 40% 15% 29% 12% 3%
Langley--Aldergrove 46% 33% 5% 11% 4%
Mission--Matsqui--Fraser Canyon 39% 33% 15% 11% 3%
Nanaimo--Ladysmith 26% 15% 20% 36% 3%
New Westminster--Burnaby 24% 25% 34% 11% 5%
North Island--Powell River 29% 22% 31% 15% 3%
BC

North Okanagan--Shuswap 42% 25% 19% 10% 3%


BC North Vancouver 31% 52% 0% 15% 3%
Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge 35% 29% 22% 11% 3%
Port Moody--Coquitlam 33% 27% 27% 10% 3%
Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies
56% 21% 9% 10% 5%
Richmond Centre 47% 36% 4% 9% 3%
Saanich--Gulf Islands 22% 13% 2% 60% 2%
Skeena--Bulkley Valley 31% 16% 41% 10% 3%
South Okanagan--West Kootenay 33% 24% 30% 10% 3%
South Surrey--White Rock 45% 39% 3% 10% 4%
Steveston--Richmond East 42% 40% 5% 10% 4%
Surrey Centre 24% 40% 23% 10% 3%
Surrey--Newton 19% 51% 19% 9% 2%
Vancouver Centre 19% 52% 14% 12% 3%
Vancouver East 13% 26% 42% 16% 3%
Vancouver Granville 17% 30% 10% 9% 3% 31%
Vancouver Kingsway 23% 26% 38% 10% 4%
Vancouver Quadra 27% 55% 4% 11% 2%
Vancouver South 35% 45% 8% 9% 3%
Victoria 16% 23% 23% 35% 3%
West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky30%
Country50% 2% 15% 2%
Yukon 27% 48% 13% 9% 3%
Terr.

Northwest Territories 21% 43% 24% 9% 3%


Nunavut 28% 42% 20% 8% 3%

*due to a general lack of polls, the projections for the three territories use
the federal vote intentions.
** winning=getting the most seats