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**Naive Bayes algorithm
**

Assignment 1a

Calculate, using the Naive Bayes classifier, the two most probable scenarios – playing tennis or not – in the following situation: Outlook = Sunny Temperature = Cool Humidity = High Wind = Strong The included program uses the Naive Bayes classifier to determine if the given situation results in playing tennis or not. A screenshot of the execution of this program is displayed to the right. The program displays the calculation results on-screen, which are summarized below. First, the program searches for similar training examples. It will try to determine the probability of each possible outcome based on prior knowledge. In this case, there are two possible outcomes: PlayTennis = Yes; PlayTennis = No. For each outcome, the algorithm ‘compares’ the number of features that match the given situation. The outcome of the given scenario is Yes, where: 9 of the 14 examples give the outcome Yes; o Of which 2 of those 9 return Sunny; o Of which 3 of those 9 return Cool; o Of which 3 of those 9 return High; o Of which 3 of those 9 return Strong. Calculating the sum over all ratios gives the probability for outcome Yes, denoted P(y) : 9 2 3 3 3 P(y) = × × × × = 0.0053 14 9 9 9 9 Likewise, we calculate the probability for outcome No, denoted P(n) : 5 3 1 4 3 P(n) = × × × × = 0.0206 14 5 5 5 5 Because the probability for outcome P(n) (PlayTennis = No) is greater than P(y) (PlayTennis = Yes), we may conclude that – according to Naive Bayes – we most likely will not want to play tennis in the given scenario, and thus that the algorithm returns No.

the expected sum of all outputs is: 9 ×1 + 5 × 0 = 9 1 2 In practise. The accuracy can be calculated by comparing the expected sum of all outputs 2 and the computed sum of all outputs. In the PlayTennis example. . We could probably improve the accuracy by removing such features. the results are: P(y) = 9 3 2 6 6 × × × × = 0. We can calculate the total deviation by subtracting the sum of all feature deviations from the expected sum. Sometimes a feature isn’t related to the outcome and is only ‘confusing’ the classifier. In the PlayTennis example. There are two methods of removing irrelevant features: Leave-one-out-cross-validation (LOOCV) Forward Selection (FS) The relevancy of a feature can be determined by calculating the difference between the expected result and the computed result. In this scenario.Assignment 1b Calculate. Assuming that your output is a real number. which is known as feature deviation.0212 14 9 9 9 9 5 2 2 1 2 × × × × = 0. the outcome would therefore be PlayTennis = No.0046 14 5 5 5 5 P (n) = For this scenario. the classification of the training set would be 100% accurate 1 . No corresponds with 0. Ideally. 100% accuracy is usually a sign that your test set is either too small. the two most probable scenarios – playing tennis or not – in the following situation: Outlook = Rain Temperature = Hot Humidity = Normal Wind = Weak Using the same procedure as described earlier. Naive Bayes calculates the probability of each outcome. Assignment 2a Are all features required to come to an accurate classification? Verify this using the Forward Selection (FS) algorithm and the Leave-one-out Cross-validation (LOOCV). Yes with 1. using the Naive Bayes classifier. or you are overfitting your classifier.

one must omit all other features from the calculation. by selecting n features for LOOCV one can acquire the same results as specifying N – n for FS. disregarding all others. the chances have shifted in the favor of playing tennis.Running the algorithm delivers the deviation from this expected sum. from which we can conclude that we should stick with all four features for this example. Both methods determine the best feature(s) using the feature relevancy described above. this is 0.0813.0476 14 9 9 5 3 1 × × = 0. Removing any single variable using LOOCV gives us only worse results. without removing any features. Is leaving out features useful in the PlayTennis example? Using all four features. After removing the features Humidity and Wind from the scenarios from assignment 1a. Leaving out two or three features only makes matters worse. the deviation is in all four cases larger than 0. The included program provides the possibility to select how many features you want the function to run on.0813. Essentially. and thus the algorithm returns PlayTennis = Yes. Assignment 2b What is the predicted class in the two above situations after selecting variables? When selecting variables. FS selects one feature that gives the smallest deviation. we get a different result: P(y) = 9 2 3 × × = 0.0429 14 5 5 P (n) = By omitting two features.0813. our classification error is represented by a total deviation of 0. as these are no longer participating. LOOCV removes a feature that is responsible for the largest total deviation. We can experiment by removing features to see if this number can be reduced. . The methods do this as follows: LOOCV removes the ‘worst’ n features. where N is the total number of features. FS selects the n ‘best’ features. Initially. Note that FS gives the same results but in reverse order.

Assignment 3 How do the results compare to the K-nearest-neighbor algorithm? Running the K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) algorithm on the scenarios from assignment 1a and 1b indeed give different results. As KNN simply takes a handful of similar scenarios (‘nearest neighbors’). respectively PlayTennis = No and PlayTennis = Yes. For that reason. it’s performance is rather sensitive to outliers. . Naive Bayes is a more accurate classifier for predicting outcomes according to a consistent pattern based upon the training set. while KNN can exclusively guarantee that very similar situations will give a similar result.

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